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Betting Recap - Week 7 October 24, 2016


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 7 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 6-7-1
Against the Spread 5-8-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 7-6-1
Against the Spread 6-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 6-8


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+5, ML +190) at Falcons, 33-30 (OT)
Colts (+4, ML +170) at Titans, 34-26
Eagles (+3, ML +130) vs. Vikings, 21-10

The largest favorite to cover
Bengals (-11.5) vs. Browns, 31-17
Packers (-7.5) vs. Bears, 26-10
Patriots (-7.5) at Steelers, 2716

Lion Not Cryin'

-- The Detroit Lions won and covered their third straight game with a 20-17 result against the Washington Redskins. The Lions have averaged 28.5 points per game (PPG) in their four victories, and 18.7 PPG in their three losses. They hit the road for a Week 8 game with the Houston Texans, looking for their first road victory since Week 1. They're 0-2 SU/ATS in their past two forays from Ford Field.

Road Raiders

-- The Oakland Raiders picked up an impressive 33-16 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, improving to 4-0 SU/ATS away from the Black Hole this season, equaling their road win total from the past two seasons combined. The Raiders were 0-8 SU on the road in 201 and 4-4 SU/6-2 ATS in 2015. Over their past 12 road games the Raiders are an impressive 10-2 ATS. Oakland is back in the Sunshine State in Week 8 when they'll meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 'over' is 3-1 in their past four road outings.
Total Recall

-- The 'over' was in the minority for the first time this season, going 6-8 in Week 7. In six games between AFC squads the 'over' went 4-2 with one game to play Monday between the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos. In six NFC battles the 'under' ended up 5-1. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over/under' split 1-1. Through the first seven weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 57-49 (with one game remaining).

-- In the four games with the lowest total lines, all four hit the 'under' in Week 7. Minnesota-Philadelphia (39), Baltimore-N.Y. Jets (40.5), Seattle-Arizona (43) and N.Y. Giants-Los Angeles (44.5) went under, with the Ravens and Jets under by just a half-point. The game between the Seahawks and Cardinals went to overtime, but was the lowest total score of the season in a 6-6 tie, the first in Seahawks franchise history.

-- In the five games with the highest total lines, the 'over' cashed in just two of those outings. The San Diego-Atlanta (52.5) game had the highest total, and ended up cashing early in the fourth quarter. The AFC South Division battle between Indianapolis-Tennessee (48.5) also hit the 'over' thanks to a 27-point final quarter. However, the only other game with a total over 50, the New Orleans-Kansas City (51) ended up just missing the mark.

-- The 'under' easily finished 2-0 in two primetime games in Week 7 with one to go. Officially, the 'over' is 9-12 (42.9%) through 21 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury in the loss in Miami and left for good in the third quarter.

-- Browns QB Cody Kessler (concussion) left in the first half of the Week 7 game in Cincinnati due to concussion, so rookie QB Kevin Hogan was forced into duty.

-- Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (knee) entered the game dealing with swelling in his surgically-repaired knee, and he was limited to just one touch in the team's win against the Saints.

-- Falcons RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring) was forced to leave the team's overtime loss against the Chargers due to a hamstring injury.

-- Redskins CB Josh Norman (concussion) suffered concussion in the team's loss in Detroit, his second career head injury.

Looking Ahead

-- The Jaguars and Titans do battle in Nashville on Thursday night. The Titans have won their past two home meetings with the Jaguars, and they're 4-1 SU over the past five in Nashville. However, Tennessee is just 1-4-1 ATS in their past six home games against Jacksonville, last covering Dec. 30, 2012. Over the past 11 meetings the Titans are just 1-8-2 ATS. Tennessee opened as a 3 1/2-point favorite.

-- The Bills host the Patriots looking for the season sweep, as they blanked the Pats in Foxboro 16-0 back on Oct. 2. However, an injured QB Jacoby Brissett started that one, not QB Tom Brady. The Bills have dropped four straight home games against the Patriots, last winning Sept. 25, 2011. New England opened as a 5 1/2-point road favorite.

-- The Broncos host the Chargers, looking for revenge after losing 21-13 in Week 6 on Thursday Night Football. In the past five home games against Chargers the Broncos are 4-1 SU, but they're 1-4 ATS during the span. In fact, over the past 13 home meetings the Broncos are a dismal 1-8-4 ATS. Denver opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite.

-- The Eagles travel to Jerry World to battle the Cowboys. Philly has made themselves right around in the Metroplex, winning three straight in Dallas, and five of the past six regular season meetings on the road. Over the past 14 meetings the Eagles are just 5-9 ATS, although they have covered four of their past five trips to Big D.

-- The Bears host the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Chicago has won seven of the past eight meetings at Soldier Field, going 6-2 ATS during the span. The Bears are 8-5 SU/ATS over the past 13 meetings in the series.

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NFL Today, Week 7
October 24, 2016


SCOREBOARD



Monday, Oct. 24

Houston at Denver, 8:30 p.m. EDT. Brock Osweiler returns to Denver for the first time since leaving the Super Bowl champs for a four-year, $72 million offer from Houston in the offseason. Osweiler went 5-2 as the starter last season in replacing Peyton Manning. And Osweiler's coming off his best game as a Texan, leading Houston back from a 14-point deficit for a 26-23 overtime victory over the Colts last week.

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STARS

Passing

-Andrew Luck, Colts, finished 27 for 39 for 353 yards and three touchdown passes in Indianapolis' 34-26 win over Tennessee.

-Drew Brees, Saints, was 37 for 48 for 367 yards and three touchdown passes and an interception in New Orleans' 27-21 loss to Kansas City. Brees is the first player in NFL history with 100 300-yard passing games.

-Andy Dalton, Bengals, finished 19 for 28 for 308 yards and two touchdown passes in Cincinnati's 31-17 win over Cleveland.

-Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, finished 21 for 30 for 269 yards with three touchdown passes and an interception in Tampa Bay's 34-17 win over San Francisco.

-Philip Rivers, Chargers, was 27 for 44 for 371 yards with a touchdown and an interception in San Diego's 33-30 overtime win over Atlanta.

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Rushing

-Jay Ajayi, Dolphins, finished with 29 carries for 214 yards and a touchdown in Miami's 28-25 win over Buffalo. Ajayi totaled 204 yards a week earlier in a win over Pittsburgh and tied the NFL record for consecutive 200-yard games held by O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams.

- Jeremy Hill, Bengals, had nine carries for a career-high 168 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown, in Cincinnati's 31-17 win over Cleveland. It was also the best by a Bengals running back in seven years.

-Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers, had 26 carries for 154 yards in Tampa Bay's 34-17 win over San Francisco.

-LeGarrette Blount, Patriots, had 24 carries for 127 yards and two touchdowns in New England's 27-16 win over Pittsburgh.

-DeMarco Murray, Titans, had 25 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown in Tennessee's 34-26 loss to Indianapolis.

-Kevin Hogan, Browns, replaced the injured Cody Kessler at quarterback and had seven carries for 104 yards, including a 28-yard touchdown in Cleveland's 31-17 loss to Cincinnati. It was the longest TD run by a quarterback in Browns history.

-Matt Forte, Jets, had 30 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown in New York's 24-16 win over Baltimore. He also joined Marshall Faulk, Marcus Allen, Thurman Thomas and Herschel Walker as the only players with 8,000 yards rushing, 4,000 yards receiving and 20 TD receptions.

-Melvin Gordon, Chargers, had 22 carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns, and added six receptions for 53 yards and another touchdown in San Diego's 33-30 win over Atlanta.

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Receiving

- A.J. Green, Bengals, had eight catches for 169 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown on a desperation pass on the last play of the first half, in Cincinnati's 31-17 win over Cleveland. Green has nine games with at least 150 receiving yards and a touchdown catch, the fourth-most among players in their first six seasons. Only Hall of Famers Lance Alworth (13) and Jerry Rice (11), and Randy Moss (10) had more such games in their first six NFL seasons.

-Julio Jones, Falcons, had nine catches for 174 yards in Atlanta's 33-30 loss to San Diego.

-T.Y. Hilton, Colts, had seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis' 34-26 win over Tennessee.

-Tyrell Williams, Chargers, had seven receptions for 140 yards in San Diego's 33-30 win over Atlanta.

-Michael Thomas, Saints, had 10 catches for 130 yards in New Orleans' 27-21 loss to Kansas City.

-Mike Wallace, Ravens, had 10 catches for 120 yards in Baltimore's 24-16 loss to the New York Jets.

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Special Teams

-Josh Huff, Eagles, returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown in Philadelphia's 21-10 win over Minnesota. It was the first time the Eagles have returned kickoffs for touchdowns in consecutive games.

-Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders, was 4 for 4 on field goals in Oakland's 33-16 win over Jacksonville.

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Defense

-Landon Collins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Giants. Collins and Rodgers-Cromartie each had two interceptions in New York's 17-10 win over Los Angeles in London. Collins returned one 44 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter. They are the first pair of teammates with multiple interceptions each in a game since 2013 (Seattle's Byron Maxwell and Richard Sherman) and the first Giants duo to accomplish the feat since Kenny Hill and Terry Kinard on Sept. 14, 1986, against San Diego.

-Chris Moore and Matt Judon, Ravens. Moore recovered a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown and Judon had two sacks in Baltimore's 24-16 loss to the New York Jets.

-Daniel Sorensen, Chiefs, returned an interception 48 yards for a touchdown in Kansas City's 27-21 win over New Orleans.

-Robert Mathis, Colts, returned a fumble 14 yards for a touchdown in Indianapolis' 34-26 victory over Tennessee.

-Adrian Clayborn, Falcons, returned a fumble 5 yards for a touchdown in Atlanta's 33-30 loss to San Diego.

-Emmanuel Ogbah, Browns, had two sacks in Cleveland's 31-17 loss to Cincinnati.

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STREAKS & STATS

After failing to score more than 23 points in any of the first six games, the Bengals got their act together against one of the league's worst defenses, piling up 559 yards - their most since 1990 in a 31-17 win over the Browns. The Bengals have won the past four in the series by scores of 30-0, 31-10, 37-3 and 31-17. ... After giving up 171 yards rushing, including 111 to David Johnson, last Monday night at Arizona, the Jets held Baltimore to a franchise-low 6 yards on the ground. ... The Dolphins outgained Buffalo 454 yards to 267 and had a 14-minute edge in time of possession, but were hurt by 13 penalties for 116 yards. Miami overcame an 11-point deficit with 16 minutes left to end a four-game winning streak by the Bills and beat them for only the second time in their past seven meetings. ... The Raiders pounded the Jaguars 33-16 and improved to 4-0 on the road and moved to 5-2 for the first time since 2001. ... The Chiefs won their ninth consecutive home game with a 27-21 victory over the Saints. ... The Colts rallied to beat the Titans 34-26 for their 10th straight win against their AFC South rival. ... The 49ers' 34-17 loss to Tampa Bay was their sixth straight loss and their longest losing streak since 2008. ... The Seahawks and Cardinals played to a 6-6 tie after Arizona's Chandler Catanzaro and Seattle's Stephen Hauschka both missed short field goals in overtime. The tie was the Cardinals' first since Dec. 7, 1986, a 10-10 draw at Philadelphia when the franchise was based in St. Louis. It was the first for the Seattle since entering the NFL in 1976. The last tie in the NFL came in 2014, when Carolina and Cincinnati tied 37-37.

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MILESTONES

The Colts' Adam Vinatieri kicked a pair of field goals, and the second, a 33-yarder with 3:46 left in the third quarter, gave him an NFL-record 43 consecutive field goals made. His first tied him with former Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt, who made 42 straight between 2002 and 2004. ... The Chiefs' Andy Reid coached his 300th game Sunday. Most of those were over his 14 seasons in Philadelphia, where he was 140-102-1. He is 36-21 in his fourth season in Kansas City. Playing in his 100th game, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has 27,890 passing yards, the most by any player in his first 100 games to begin a career.

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BYRD HONORED

The Jets honored the late Dennis Byrd with a pregame video tribute after he was killed last weekend in a car accident in Oklahoma.

Byrd was an inspiration to many after he overcame brief paralysis and walked again just a few months after injuring his neck during a play in 1992. The defensive lineman, who played for the Jets for four seasons, died in a two-vehicle collision last Saturday. He was 50.

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SIDELINED

Geno Smith's return to the starting lineup came to a premature end on Sunday, with the New York Jets quarterback exiting a 24-16 win over Baltimore with a right knee injury in the second quarter. Smith was hurt while taking a sack from Baltimore's Matthew Judon. He was taken to the locker room and later returned to the field in street clothes, and he'll have an MRI this week. ... Cleveland's quarterback woes continued with Cody Kessler suffering a concussion. Kessler was hit hard while throwing a shovel pass on a scramble, and he was replaced by rookie Kevin Hogan. ... In Buffalo, LeSean McCoy's nagging left hamstring issue flared up, with the NFL's second-leading rusher being forced to leave the Bills' game at Miami in the third quarter. Bills safety Aaron Williams suffered a head and neck injury when Dolphins receiver Jarvis Landry was flagged for unnecessary roughness for a block in the second quarter. ... Washington cornerback Josh Norman was forced to leave the Redskins' game against Detroit, suffering a concussion and appearing to injure his left shoulder while defending a catch by the Lions' Marvin Jones. ... In Philadelphia, Eagles cornerback Ron Brooks was carted off the field after suffering a right knee injury late while making a tackle in the first quarter.

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SPEAKING

''With (Matthew) Stafford, it's never in the bag if it's close. I call him (Brett) Farve Jr. because those are the kind of attributes and intangibles he has.'' - Redskins safety Will Blackmon on quarterback Matthew Stafford after the Lions quarterback threw a last-minute TD pass in Detroit's 20-17 win over Washington.

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''We got outplayed, we got outcoached, we got out-everythinged. They were the more physical team today, there's no doubt about that. They controlled the game.'' Buffalo coach Rex Ryan - on his team's performance in a 28-25 loss to Miami.

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Jets' Geno Smith out with torn ACL
October 24, 2016

NEW YORK (AP) Geno Smith's second chance at starting appears to be over. His playing days with the New York Jets could be, too.

The maligned quarterback has a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and is seeking a second opinion on the injury that would end his season.

NFL Network first reported the severity of Smith's injury on Monday.

Smith, a second-round pick in 2013 who is scheduled to be a free agent after the season, injured his knee while taking a sack from Baltimore's Matt Judon in the second quarter of the Jets' 24-16 win Sunday. Smith, who got the start in favor of the benched Ryan Fitzpatrick, had an MRI on Monday.

It's a stunning turn of events for Smith, who didn't believe the injury was serious.

''I don't feel like it hurts a ton,'' Smith said after the game. ''Honestly, I was begging to go back out there, but I understand they're doing their jobs, so we'll see how it goes (Monday) and move on from there.''

It's the latest bout with bad luck for Smith, who lost his starting job to Fitzpatrick last summer when his jaw was broken by a punch from then-teammate IK Enemkpali. Until Sunday, Smith hadn't started a game since the 2014 season finale, appearing in just two mop-up roles since.

With Fitzpatrick struggling with 11 interceptions in New York's first six games, in which the Jets started 1-5, coach Todd Bowles went with Smith as his starter against the Ravens.

Smith had a solid start to the game, going 4 of 8 for 95 yards including a 69-yard touchdown to Quincy Enunwa. But he was hurt when he scrambled to his left and held onto the ball rather than throw it away on a third-down play, and took the sack.

He limped off the field and was checked by trainers on the sideline before being taken to the locker room. Smith spent the second half in sweats on the sideline as Fitzpatrick helped lead the Jets to a win.

He drew some criticism from Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Namath, who wrote on Twitter : ''If you've got a right knee injury keeping you out of the game, why are you standing on the sideline the entire 2nd half? How bad can it be?''

Smith saw Namath's comments and responded on Twitter : ''Somebody tell Joe that the doctors have the final say on whether you can or cannot get back into the game ... and also that I love him!''

The Jets will now apparently have to turn back to Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. Bryce Petty, a fourth-rounder last year, and rookie Christian Hackenberg, a second-rounder, are also on the roster.

Fitzpatrick was candid after the game Sunday about how he felt owner Woody Johnson, general manager Mike Maccagnan and Bowles, among others, had lost their faith in him.

''The biggest thing in this game, in order to last, is to have belief in yourself,'' Fitzpatrick said. ''Because when the owner stops believing in you, the GM stops believing in you and the coaches stop believing in you, sometimes all you have is yourself.

''So, that's kind of something I've had to deal with before, something I'm dealing with now.''

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QB Jay Cutler receives medical clearance
October 24, 2016

LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) Finally, some good news for the scuffling Chicago Bears: Quarterback Jay Cutler will return from a thumb injury to play against the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 31.

Whether it's too late for Cutler to salvage something for the Bears (1-6) - or perhaps his own career in Chicago - remain valid questions.

''I think he's been at the bit for a while,'' coach John Fox said Monday. ''I think anytime you can't play as a competitor, as a player, obviously that's hard and I think he handled it great.''

Fox said team doctors cleared Cutler to play over the weekend. His return comes at an opportune time since backup Brian Hoyer suffered a broken left arm against Green Bay on Thursday night and has had surgery. He is likely to go on injured reserve, and the Bears have not ruled out picking up another quarterback.

Matt Barkley replaced Hoyer in the loss at Green Bay.

Cutler completed 28 of 46 for 373 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in a game and a half before his thumb sprain against Philadelphia in a 29-14 loss Sept. 19. He had a passer rating of 75.7

Hoyer completed 134 of 200 for 1,445 yards with six touchdowns and a passer rating of 98.0. His 200 attempts without an interceptions is only five shy of the franchise record set in 2008 by Kyle Orton. While Hoyer was playing, Fox had said the starting position was performance-based when asked whether Cutler would return as starter when his injury healed.

Fox sought to clarify his statement Monday.

''Some things that I say go somewhere that I wasn't really intending,'' he said. ''At the end of the day, obviously, Jay's our starter. He was injured, not permitted to play medically. And now that he's healed he's back to being our starter.

''That's really the facts and kind of what happened and where we're at now. So I don't know that there was a competition to speak of. Just like there wasn't a competition when Matt Barkley went in, he was our only quarterback left. So it's good to have Jay back. We're excited to have him back and hopefully he can remain healthy.''

There has been plenty of speculation that Cutler is on his way out of Chicago after this season. Fox called handling such adversity part of the game and nothing was too big for Cutler.

''I think all that for everybody is tough,'' Fox said. ''I think everybody realizes what they signed up for. Obviously as a coach and a staff you're always trying to help your players through stuff like that, but one thing I've found in Jay in the time I've been here is that he's very tough-minded and resilient.''

Fox said had Cutler remained a part of the offense, working with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and Hoyer throughout his injury.

Now it's a matter of getting back in sync with teammates on the field.

Center Cody Whitehair said there could be a slight adjustment made in terms of Cutler taking snaps instead of Hoyer, but not much else.

''We don't really play into that much; whichever's back there, we're going to try and do our best to protect them and do our thing on the run,'' Whitehair said. ''But you know, it is nice to have him back. He's been a leader on the sideline even while he wasn't playing and it'll be nice to have him back out there.''

Notes: Fox said right guard Kyle Long suffered a triceps strain in the Packer game, but didn't offer much detail on whether his play will be affected: ''We'll continue to have time. Our first really day back to full practice is Thursday.'' ... The Bears are in a schedule stretch that has them playing one game in 23 days. They're hoping it allows numerous injured starters to heal, including nose tackle Eddie Goldman and running back Jeremy Langford. Both had high ankle sprains.

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Cardinals WR Jaron Brown out for season
October 24, 2016

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Jaron Brown tore an ACL in Sunday night's 6-6 tie with Seattle and is out for the remainder of the season.

Coach Bruce Arians confirmed the injury at his Monday news conference.

Brown has 11 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdown this season and is one of the best players on special teams.

An undrafted rookie out of Clemson in 2013, Brown will be a free agent after this season.

He has 55 career receptions for 700 yards and five scores. Brown had a 51-yard touchdown catch in Arizona's blowout win over Tampa Bay, the Cardinals' longest pass play of the season.

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MNF Top Prop Bets
October 24, 2016


NFL Week 7 MNF Adjusted Prop Betting

After watching an eye-gouging offensive game on SNF from Arizona and Seattle, it's tough to immediately think that tonight's MNF game will be a much better offensive showing, but there really is nowhere to go but up after the dismal offensive and special teams performances we saw last night. It's Brock Osweiler's return to Denver this evening and Sportsbook.ag has some great “primetime specials” props being offered again this week. Let's take a brief look at two of them that could cash for bettors tonight.

Sportsbook.ag NFL Prop Odds

Prop Bet #1: RB Lamar Miller Over 125 rushing yards (+400)

For all of the accolades Denver's defense has gotten over the past year and continuing into this year, there is a small concern this season about their ability to stop the run. In last week's loss to the Chargers they let Melvin Gordon go for 94 yards on 27 attempts, while the week before saw Atlanta's duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combine for 119 yards on 29 carries. I get that neither of those results top the 125 yards rushing we'd need from Lamar Miller tonight, but they do shed some light on the likelihood of Houston using their running game heavily in their attack.

For one, as a team, Denver ranks 20th in the NFL with 112.7 yards allowed on the ground per game and Miller is more than capable of pushing past that number by a first down or two this evening. Second, we saw just how shaky Osweiler was in the first three quarters last week vs. Indy in terms of connecting with receivers. Osweiler was missing high, making poor reads etc and that was just a division game. There is no question that Osweiler will be jacked up in his return to Denver tonight and in an attempt to settle him down and get him in rhythm, I expect the Texans to use a solid dose of the run early on.

There is nothing that Denver wants more in this game than to force Osweiler and his tendencies they know so well to try and beat them, so for Houston to have a shot they've got to get production elsewhere. Miller could very well be that guy tonight and if you believe that 125 yards may be a bit too much, the “Over” 100 yards is paying out at +140.

Prop Bet #2: RB C.J Anderson Over 75 Rushing Yards (+120)

This prop doesn't have the high payout odds as the first one, but if you do project Anderson to have a good game on the ground, Over 100 rushing yards at +275 is offered, along with Over 125 rushing yards at +900. But the smallest number of the bunch is still offered at plus-money and just like with Miller vs. Denver's defense, Houston's defensive weakness is against the rush as well.

Last week, Houston became the first team in four years to allow an Indianapolis Colts RB to rush for 100 yards in a game, and that goes right along with their average of allowing 126.3 yards/game on the ground. Obviously not having J.J Watt in the lineup hurts the production of Houston's front seven, but the Texans can be had on the ground and Denver loves to use those zone read running plays to get drives started, keep them going, and eventually put points on the board.

Denver's defense may be 20th in the NFL against the run, but Houston's is much worse at 28th right now. Teams that have beaten up on the Texans – and both Houston losses have come in blowout fashion on the road – utilized their rushing attack well and the Broncos should do the same tonight. Further, there is always that idea that if this game does turn out to be another ugly road loss for Houston, that means that Denver will be up the majority of the time and looking to salt away the clock. That's a prime situation for C.J. Anderson to get plenty of yards on the ground, and although there are whispers of Devontae Booker seeing more reps at RB soon, the Broncos aren't going to completely get away from Anderson at this point of the season. If he breaks one big run then this total of 75 yards is in jeopardy already as it presents plenty of value tonight.

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ICYMI in NFL's Week 7: U-G-L-Y, you ain't got no alibi
October 24, 2016

Let's not write off the NFL just yet, no matter what the declining TV ratings say. Still, this was one long day of tedious, bad football that showcased various problems with the current state of the game.

All the ugliness concluded as Sunday turned to Monday on the East Coast with a ''Can you believe that?!'' 6-6 tie between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals after each team's kicker missed a gimme field goal attempt late in overtime. Even folks with an appreciation for stingy defense had to be face-palming at the way that one ended.

It all began about 15 hours earlier in London, where Case Keenum threw four interceptions - including one on a ridiculously amateurish miscommunication to thwart what could have been a game-tying drive late - in the Los Angeles Rams' 17-10 loss to the New York Giants.

In between, there were other duds that featured sloppy offense, tons of turnovers, plenty of punts and penalties, questionable coaching or various other instances of the sort of blah, take-it-or-leave-it, non-action that led Washington Redskins coach Jay Gruden to refer to his team's 20-17 loss against the Detroit Lions (which was 3-all at halftime) this way: ''It was kind of a snoozer there, for a while.''

Tell us about it, Jay.

Or as Minnesota Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said of his previously unbeaten team's performance in a 21-10 defeat against the Philadelphia Eagles, a game that included a combined half-dozen turnovers in the first half alone: ''`Embarrassing,' really, is the word, in at least two of the phases.''

Could have been talking about much of the league, really.

In case you missed it, here are the other top topics after the NFL season's seventh Sunday:

NO GOFF: Somehow, Rams coach Jeff Fisher sees fit to keep trotting Keenum out there and keep No. 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff on the bench. No matter how unprepared he might be, Goff couldn't possibly give the team less of a chance to win than Keenum did Sunday - could he? ''Jared is going to play when we feel Jared is ready,'' Fisher said, adding: ''We didn't lose this game because of quarterback play.'' You sure about that, Coach? And even if it's true, why not get Goff some experience?

DOUBLE 200: Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi joined some exclusive company by running for 214 yards in a 28-25 victory over the Buffalo Bills, making him only the fourth player in NFL history to top 200 on the ground in consecutive games. The others? O.J. Simpson - yes, THAT O.J. Simpson - Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams.

LANDRY'S HIT: Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry leveled Bills S Aaron Williams by launching into him and putting a shoulder into his helmet. The shot sent Williams to the hospital with head and neck injuries. ''Definitely a cheap hit,'' Bills CB Nickell Robey-Coleman said.

GREEN'S CATCH: What a catch ! On an old-fashioned, close-your-eyes-and-chuck-it Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half, Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green - surrounded by defenders - juggled the ball before corralling it with one hand while landing on his back in the end zone for a 48-yard TD in a 31-17 victory over winless Cleveland.

AT 43, VINATIERI GETS 43: Indy's Adam Vinatieri, still kickin' at age 43, made two field goals in a 34-26 victory at Tennessee, giving him 43 successful attempts in a row, breaking the record set by former Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt from 2002-04

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MNF - Texans at Broncos
October 23, 2016

Both the Texans and Broncos have each started the season with 4-2 records, but each AFC squad has reached this record on a different path. Monday night’s contest in Denver can be referred to as the “Brock Osweiler Bowl” with the former Bronco quarterback making his return to the Mile City High as a member of the Texans. However, Denver has more to deal with than just celebrating the return of Peyton Manning’s backup from last season’s Super Bowl winning team.

LAST WEEK

The Broncos dropped their second consecutive game following a 4-0 start, as Denver fell short in a 21-13 defeat at San Diego. Trevor Siemian returned under center for the Broncos after missing a Week 5 loss to Atlanta with a shoulder injury. However, Siemian couldn’t dig Denver out of a 21-3 hole in spite of throwing for 230 yards (most coming in the second half) and a touchdown. The Broncos committed 12 penalties for 103 yards, while head coach Gary Kubiak wasn’t on the sidelines due to a migraine. Denver failed to cash as three-point favorites to drop to 4-2 ATS, while losing its first AFC West game of the season.

The Texans remained unbeaten at NRG Stadium with a furious rally in the final 2:37 minutes against the Colts last Sunday night. Houston trailed Indianapolis, 23-9, but Osweiler threw a pair of touchdown passes, including the game-tying connection with C.J. Fiedorowicz with 49 seconds remaining in regulation. The Texans won it in overtime on a Nick Novak 33-yard field goal to stun the Colts, 26-23, but pushed as three-point favorites. Osweiler has yet to bust the 300-yard mark in six games for Houston, posting 269 yards against Indianapolis, but the Texans did improve to 2-0 inside the AFC South.

ROAD WOES

Houston has thrived at home with a 4-0 record, but leaving the Lone Star State has been lowly for Bill O’Brien’s squad. The Texans have been outscored 58-13 in road losses at New England and Minnesota, who have combined for a 10-1 record. Houston has reached the end zone only once on the highway this season and that was in garbage time at Minnesota when Osweiler hooked up with DeAndre Hopkins for a score in a 31-6 game. The Texans have compiled a 4-6 SU/ATS record since the start of last season on the road as three of those victories have come against division opponents.

HIGH PRICE TO PAY

The Broncos own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL. However, Denver is laying its biggest number of the season on Monday night (7 ½) and that hasn’t translated into many covers at Sports Authority Field. Since December 2014, the Broncos own a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a touchdown favorite or higher at home, but Denver has won five of those six games from a straight-up standpoint.

SERIES HISTORY

This is the sixth meeting ever between the Texans and Broncos and the first since 2013. Houston is visiting Denver for the fourth time as the Texans held off the Broncos, 31-25 as a one-point favorite in Peyton Manning’s first season at quarterback in 2012. The Broncos picked up major revenge in the next matchup in 2013 in Houston as Denver captured a 37-13 rout as 10-point favorites. Manning torched the Texans for 400 yards and four touchdown passes, while Houston quarterback Matt Schaub was intercepted twice in the loss.

UNDER THUNDER

The last three Monday night contests have finished UNDER the total, including last week’s 28-3 rout by the Cardinals over the Jets on a 46 total. The Texans have cashed the UNDER in three of their past four primetime games since last November, including in their previous Monday nighter at Cincinnati last season in a 10-6 upset as 10-point underdogs. The Broncos are currently riding a three-game UNDER streak after eclipsing the OVER in their first three contests.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Vince Akins provides several key trends for Monday night, “Despite the overall struggles in last week’s game, the problems for Denver were mainly on the offensive side of the ball. On defense, Denver actually held San Diego to a mere 265 yards of total offense in the loss. And as good as the Broncos’ defense is, they’ve had trouble matching expectations after strong defensive performances the past two years. The Broncos are 0-10 ATS since Nov 16, 2014 as a favorite after allowing less than 300 total yards last game.”

Even though the Broncos’ defense continues to step up, Akins points out another trend working against Denver, “Now looking at the other side of the ball, there is no disputing Denver struggled. While they outgained San Diego on Thursday they turned it into 13 points. The Broncos are 0-8-2 ATS since Oct 31, 2004 as a favorite after a loss where they scored less than 14 points.”

GAME PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Houston

B. Osweiler O/U Completions
Over (-110) – 20 ½
Under (-110) – 20 ½

B. Osweiler Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
Over (+130) – 2 ½
Under (-150) – 2 ½

D. Hopkins Receiving Yards
Over (-110) – 65 ½
Under (-110) – 65 ½

Denver

T. Siemian Gross Passing Yards
Over (-110) – 226 ½
Under (-110) – 226 ½

T. Siemian Touchdown Passes
Over (+130) – 1 ½
Under (-150) – 1 ½

Will D. Thomas catch a Touchdown Pass?
Yes (+130)
No (-150)

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WLT PCT UNITS

10/23/2016 11-10-1 52.38% +0

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 66-82-4 44.59% -12100

O/U Picks 60-88-5 40.54% -18400

Triple Plays:..... 11 - 16 - 1

MONDAY, OCTOBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at DEN 08:30 PM

HOU +7.5*****

U 40.0 *****

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WLT PCT UNITS

10/23/2016 11-10-1 52.38% +0

10/24/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 66-83-4 44.30% -12650

O/U Picks 61-88-5 40.94% -17900

Triple Plays:..... 12 - 17 - 1

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Close Calls - Week 7
October 25, 2016

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 7 of the NFL regular season.

Green Bay Packers (-7) 26, Chicago Bears 10 (47): Amidst a solid individual season, Brian Hoyer was injured in the second quarter of this Thursday night game for a big blow for Bears supporters as well as anyone on the ‘over’. Down 3-0 at the time, Chicago did score on Matt Barkley’s first drive to tie the game and through three quarters, Chicago was only down 13-10 as they scored a touchdown on defense. Eventually Barkley caught up to the Bears with some key mistakes and Green Bay put together two fourth quarter touchdown drives to pull away 26-10, covering the favorite spread that was as high as -9 early in the week.

New York Giants (-3) 17, Los Angeles Rams 10 (45½): The Rams quickly jumped out to a 10-0 lead in London Sunday morning for a hot pace for those on the underdog or the ‘over’. New York tied the game early in the second quarter with 10 points in the span of about a minute thanks to an interception return touchdown. Missed opportunities followed on both side as the game went over 27 minutes without a score until the Giants took advantage of another Case Keenum interception to score a short field touchdown. The Rams had two productive drives in the final minutes, but both ended with interceptions as well including the final drive that reached the New York 15-yard line.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) 27, New Orleans Saints 21 (51½): A 7-7 game turned sharply with a late first quarter interception return touchdown for the Chiefs. In the second quarter, Kansas City went up 21-7 as the Saints had a solid production edge, but were often buried in tough field position. The Saints had a 75-yard touchdown drive to open the second half and then after a Kansas City field goal New Orleans looked poised to score again. On first down from the Kansas City 13-yard line, Mark Ingram had a costly fumble to cost the Saints a chance to get back in the game. The New Orleans defense held to get the ball back and with less than three minutes to go New Orleans found the end zone to get within three points and within the spread. The Saints were hit with a costly unnecessary roughness penalty to give Kansas City 15 yards and a fresh set of downs while the Chiefs were trying to run out the clock and that penalty allowed Kansas City to kick a late field goal to take a six-point edge in a game where the line was right at -6 for parts of the week though most on the underdog still won with -6½ the common number.

Detroit Lions (+1) 20, Washington Redskins 17 (50): With a total above 50 and two shaky defenses it was certainly a surprise to see a 3-3 game at the half for these NFC playoff hopefuls. The Lions took the lead with an 86-yard drive in the third quarter and then added three more points taking advantage of a Washington fumble early in the fourth quarter. Washington would score touchdowns on consecutive possessions including the go-ahead score with just over a minute on the clock for a 17-13 edge. Matthew Stafford continued what has been a MVP caliber first half of the season with a 75-yard drive in the final minute as the Lions escaped with a third straight win while getting out-gained for the fourth straight game.

Cincinnati Bengals (-11) 31, Cleveland Browns 17 (46½): The Bengals pulled away in the second half to take a 31-17 advantage by the start of the fourth quarter, but a missed field goal after a 13-play drive looked like it might be costly on a spread that was at -9½ or -10 much of the week. Behind rookie Kevin Hogan, the Browns drove to the Cincinnati 21-yard line with a new set of downs right after the two-minute warning, but Hogan wound up intercepted on a tipped pass to end the backdoor cover threat.

Miami Dolphins (+2½) 28, Buffalo Bills 25 (46): The Bills led 17-14 heading into the fourth quarter, sitting just past the closing road favorite spread. Miami took its first lead since early in the game with a touchdown run with just under four minutes remaining. The underdog cover wasn’t completely secure up by just four, but a 66-yard pass play changed that to give Miami a 28-17 edge. The total still sat just ‘under’ even with the two Miami touchdowns, but Buffalo scored a controversial touchdown with 14 seconds to go as Reggie Bush eclipsed the goal line but not until after his helmet had been jarred off, with the rules stipulating that would be cause to stop the play.

Oakland Raiders (+2) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 16 (47½): The Raiders controlled this game early and led 23-9 into the fourth quarter as a slight underdog. The total looked on pace for an ‘under’ but with about four minutes to go Jacksonville scored its first touchdown of the game to put the game at 26-16. A failed onside kick attempt gave Oakland great field position, but the Raiders still lined up to punt though Jacksonville fumbled the return to give the Raiders even better field position. A few plays later, Oakland put the game away and sealed the ‘over’ with a rushing touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) 34, Tennessee Titans 26 (48½): This AFC South clash featured a wild fourth quarter as a 20-13 Colts lead turned to a 23-20 deficit in quick order with those looking for the middle sitting in good shape as Tennessee opened at -2 before closing at -4. On third and goal just after the two-minute warning, the Colts completed a 12-play drive with a touchdown and not a potential overtime forcing field goal. The Titans had moved the ball well and had plenty of time remaining but wound up with a fumble that was returned for a Colts touchdown as suddenly Indianapolis led by 11. Tennessee added a late field goal to make for 27 fourth quarter points to shift the total result.

San Diego Chargers (+5) 33, Atlanta Falcons 30 (53): A Chargers team known for late game self-destruction had a miserable second quarter with three touchdowns allowed in about a five minute span including a fumble return score as the Falcons took a 27-10 lead. The Chargers climbed back to within seven by the start of the fourth quarter and then held Atlanta to a field goal for a key red zone hold. Down 10, the Chargers put together a 15-play touchdown drive to close to within three at 30-27. The San Diego defense made a big play as Matt Ryan took a shot on first-and-20 from midfield, but wound up with an interception. San Diego had to settle for tying the game with a short kick with 18 seconds to go but the Chargers nearly found a way to blow it as Atlanta had a 58-yard kick at the end of regulation that hit the upright. Atlanta would still be able to cover with a touchdown and going first in overtime the Falcons aggressively went for it on 4th-and-short from their own 45-yard line. The move failed and the Chargers conservatively moved the down the field and kicked the game winning field goal for a great comeback win.

New England Patriots (-7) 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 16 (49½): The Patriots led 14-0 early, but Pittsburgh closed to 14-13 before a New England touchdown late in the third quarter. Stephen Gostkowski missed the extra point in a potentially huge play with the spread hovering at -7 or -7½ as New England led just 20-13. Pittsburgh added a field goal to get within four early in the fourth quarter, but New England had a six-play touchdown drive to go up by 11. Pittsburgh missed a field goal on its next possession and with a late opportunity to steal the underdog cover the Steelers fell short on downs in New England territory in the final minute.

Arizona Cardinals (-2½) 6, Seattle Seahawks 6 (43): The ‘under’ looked very promising from the get-go Sunday night as a 3-0 Arizona lead held until Seattle hit a 40-yard field goal with four minutes left in the game following a 0-yard drive after a blocked punt. Arizona went first in overtime and hit a 45-yard field goal, but Seattle was able to answer as the game was still tied with less than seven minutes to go in the fifth quarter. Arizona hit a 40-yard pass play on a key third down play to sit at the Seattle 5-yard line and on third down the Cardinals opted to kick, incredibly hitting the upright for a miss on a 24-yard try. Seattle also hit a big pass play and climbed into the red zone only to watch a second down 28-yard kick miss left as the game ended in a tie and most supporting the very slight underdog Seahawks collected.

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Dak, Dallas getting noticed
October 25, 2016

Cowboys' Prescott First Rookie QB To Win Super Bowl?

If the 2016 Dallas Cowboys want to win their first Super Bowl title since the Triplets dynasty of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin largely ended with a 27-17 win over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl ***, then history shows that Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones should replace rookie Dak Prescott with 36-year-old Tony Romo under center coming out of the Week 7 bye. That's if Romo is ready to return from his back injury. After all, no team has won a Super Bowl with a rookie starting quarterback.

However, it's now clear that Jones -- and you are kidding yourself if you think Coach Jason Garrett has a say in this decision -- simply can't pull Prescott at this point as the fourth-rounder out of Mississippi State has played too well. Jones is a loyal guy, but winning trumps loyalty.

Prescott has the Cowboys at 5-1 and as a +600 third-favorite on BetOnline NFL odds to win the NFC Championship.

The old sporting adage is that you players aren't supposed to lose their jobs due to injury. That's ridiculous. Ask Drew Bledsoe. Early in the 2001 season, Bledsoe, then still a very good quarterback with the New England Patriots, suffered a major injury against the New York Jets. In came an unknown second-year player named Tom Brady and he led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl title. Bledsoe was traded to the Buffalo Bills the next season.

Ironically, Bledsoe was the Dallas quarterback for the start of the 2006 season. But he struggled in team's sixth game, a loss to the New York Giants, and was replaced by the second-year Romo, who never gave the job back.

In recent history, the 49ers' Alex Smith led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game in the 2011 season. But he was hurt midway through the 2012 season and replaced by second-year Colin Kaepernick. Smith never got the job back as Kaepernick led the 49ers to that season's Super Bowl and the next year's conference championship game before his career started heading downhill.

If the Cowboys were ever going to replace Prescott with Romo, it would have been during the bye but Romo still isn't physically ready so it's a moot point. Romo may have taken his last snap as a Cowboy as he has the NFL's biggest 2017 salary cap number at $24.7 million. So, he will almost certainly be released this offseason because trading him isn't financially realistic.

Could the Cowboys have both the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the MVP? And who gets which between Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott? On BetOnline's most recent MVP odds, Elliott was +1000 to win the MVP and Prescott +2000.

Prescott is among the NFL's highest-rated QBs at 103.9 and has thrown just one interception -- breaking Brady's record for most attempts to start a career without one -- to seven touchdowns. And Prescott has done all that with top receiver Dez Bryant playing just three games due to a knee injury; he'll be back this week.

Running behind the NFL's best offensive line, Elliott leads the league in rushing by far at 117.2 yards per game. He entered the bye on a streak of four straight games with at least 130 yards. Elliott's 703 yards in six games is the second-most in a player's first six career games behind Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson's 787. Elliott is the first rookie to rush for at least 130 yards in four consecutive games.

The Cowboys should win the NFC East and are -125 favorites on BetOnline to do so. They might have a path to the NFC's top seed. The Cowboys are 4.5-point home favorites this week against Philadelphia.

They also should be favored in the next four games: Week 9 at Cleveland, Week 10 at Pittsburgh, Week 11 vs. Baltimore and Week 12 vs. Washington on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys seem likely to play the Steelers without Pittsburgh having Ben Roethlisberger or otherwise Pittsburgh would be a home favorite.

Thus, it's possible Dallas could be 10-1 when it visits Minnesota on Dec. 1 in perhaps the NFC's most important game of the regular season. The Vikings were the last unbeaten to fall with an ugly 21-10 loss in Philly in Week 7.

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Mixed results in Week 7
October 24, 2016

Las Vegas sports books had mixed results during NFL Week 7 action Sunday where the underdogs ruled the day going 8-4-1 ATS while seven of them winning outright. Some books showed a small win, or were break even while others ended up small losers on the day. The one game most bet shops were unified with was taking a big loss when the Patriots (-7.5) won at Pittsburgh, 27-16.

"We came out on the short end today,' said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was kind of odd the way things unfolded. A lot of the games were fairly balanced and we didn't have any real big decisions, but the few we did have we lost with. We lost with the Browns and Raiders and the really big one was us needing the Steelers."

The Patriots have now covered three straight in dominating fashion since Tom Brady returned in Week 5. Their excellence is becoming a thorn in the books side.

"The Patriots are now 6-1 against-the-spread," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "And the players cash every week with them."

The other team that has the bookmakers scratching their heads through the first seven weeks is the Browns, who lost 31-17 at Cincinnati (-11.5).

"I'm not sure what we're going to do with those Browns," said Kornegay. "They're just a really bad team, but they were getting double digits against an average team this week. They just play bad football, and I realize that the NFL is based on parity, but it seems like it's the same bad product every week with them."

So if the bettors keep laying whatever spread is posted on the Patriots and whoever the Browns play, why not put an extra 20 percent luxury tax on the spread for each?

"We're already building in higher spreads with the Browns and Patriots," Kornegay said, noting the Browns are still the only winless team and are 2-5 ATS.

While most books had a tough team escaping the Patriots-Bengals two-team parlay, one chain of books in particular managed to do just that. When MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback was asked how bad the Patriots game was, he had a different response from everyone else.

"No, actually we didn't lose the Patriots game," he said. "We took a couple of casino guests six figure wagers on the Steelers that helped us avoid losing on what was probably our most one-sided games with tickets written."

However, all the visitors at his 10 books across the strip were all over the Browns and there were no whales to balance things out.

"The one really bad game we had was the Bengals."

The MGM books were one of the few to show a solid profit on the day

"Our big wins on the day were the Eagles (+3 vs Vikings), Jets (-2 vs Ravens), Lions (+1 vs Redskins) and Buccaneers (+1.5 at San Francisco)," Stoneback said. "The Colts beating the Titans (-4) were almost in that same category."

Wise guys maneuvered strong throughout the week taking aim at all four games hovering around the key number of 3, taking both sides at optimal prices which put the bookmakers in sweat mode in at least one of those when the Titans had a 23-20 lead with two minutes to. Wise guys had bet the Titans heavy at -2.5, -3 and -3.5, but the Colts had other sharp groups taking +3.5. Indianapolis allowed the books to rest easy in the closing moments of a 34-26 win. The underdog ended up winning three of those games

The Sunday night game with the Cardinals (-2.5) and Seahawks ending up a 6-6 draw at Arizona was also a mixed bag around town. William Hill's 108 sports book across Nevada reported they'd break even on the day if Seattle covered, while Stations would drop down to a very small winner with them. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said they needed Seattle to complete a good day.

Stoneback said his books didn't have too big of a decision with either Arizona or Seattle, but he was already sweating the Monday night risk.

"We're in a bad spot with Denver Monday night, not only because of all the individual wagers on them throughout the week, but we've got a couple of huge parlays live going into that game," he said. "We took a few $10,000 and $5,000 parlays that had the Packers on Thursday night with a few Saturday (college football) games that are all live with the Broncos money-line."

The Broncos opened up as 6.5-point home favorites against the Texans and have been bet up to as high as -9 -- mostly to protect against teasers once the spread reached -8. Stoneback is trying to limit risk by offering the most attractive money-line price in town with the Texans at +330.

"We're like 30 or 20 cents higher than anyone else on the Texans money-line but haven't had any takers."

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 8
October 25, 2016


THURSDAY, OCT. 27

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jags 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 in series. Titans “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY and Jags “over” 12-6 last 18. Titans 2-8-1 last 11 as Nashville chalk.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 30

WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI from London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Skins 8-3 last 11 reg.-season games on board. Also “over” 10-2 last 12 since late 2015. Cincy 2-6-1 last 9 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DETROIT at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 4-2 last six as dog and also “over” 8-5 last 13 since late 2015. Texans 3-0-1 vs. line at home, now 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 at NRG Stadium. Home team 6-0-1 vs. spread in Houston games this season!.
Tech Edge: Texans and alight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have now covered three in a row and are 11-3 last 14 as dog. Saints also “over” 9-2 last 11 at Superdome. Hawks only 6-7 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills beat Brady-less Pats back in Week Four. Rex Ryan 6-2-1 vs. line last nine vs. Belichick. Pats only 5-13 last 18 as visiting chalk.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team and Rex Ryan vs. Belichick trends.

NY JETS at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 2-6-2 last ten vs. line on road. Hue Jackson teams in Oakland (2011) and Cleveland “over” 11-3 last 14 games.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

OAKLAND at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 4-0 vs. line away TY and 10-2 vs. spread as visitor since Del Rio arrived LY. Oakland also “over” 16-8-1 since late 2014. Bucs only 2-7 vs. line at home since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET
KC 6-2 vs. spread last 8 reg.-season away games (though only 1-2 TY), Chiefs also “under” 7-3 last 10 reg.-season games. Colts 8-0 as home dog since 2012! Indy also “over” 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “over,” based on Indy trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven dating to Super Bowl, 1-2 as home chalk TY. If Arians a dog note 13-6 mark in role during reg season since 2013. Big Red “over” 7-1 last 8 on road, Carolina “over” 13-7-1 reg. season since LY.
Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends..

SAN DIEGO at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET
Bolts are 9-1-2 vs. line last 12 at Denver and SD 23-9-1 as road dog since 2012!
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Falcons 5-1 vs. line last six TY and are also “over” 6-1, the latter quite a departure from previous “totals” form (had been “under” 16-3 previous 19 entering season). Pack first road game since Sept. 18 (Week 2), but no covers first two away TY. Pack 6-10-1 vs. spread last 17 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Falcons and “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dallas 5-0-1 vs. line TY, “under” 10-4 last 14 since mid 2015. Road team has won outright last six in series. Cowboys 9-27 as home chalk since 2010.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and series trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 31

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bears on 2-9 spread skid, “over” 6-4-1 last 11. Vikes 19-4 last 23 vs. line!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Patriots are out for revenge at Buffalo in Week 8

"We decided on Pats -6.5, with the Bills off a loss and in pretty much a must-win spot at home."

All 32 NFL teams will hit the season’s midway point over the next two weeks, with contenders beginning to separate from pretenders. We talk about a few Week 8 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

New England gets an opportunity to avenge its only loss this season, and this time, the Patriots will have Tom Brady on hand. The Pats (6-1 SU and ATS) are now 3-0 SU and ATS with Brady back under center, including Sunday’s 27-16 win laying 7.5 points at Pittsburgh, which was without Ben Roethlisberger.

Buffalo shut out New England 16-0 getting 3.5 points on the road Oct. 2, the second win of a four-game SU and ATS surge. But the Bills (4-3 SU and ATS) lost to Miami 28-25 on Sunday as a 2.5-point road favorite.

“The betting public has been on the Patriots in all three of Brady’s games,” Childs said Sunday night. “In fact, the last time the Pats failed to cover and win outright was against these Bills, an embarrassing shutout at home. So with the Patriots having a bit of revenge in this spot, taking on a very beat-up Bills team with a questionable LeSean McCoy and leading receiver Robert Woods also questionable, we really wanted to hang a full touchdown on the Patriots.

“But we decided on Pats -6.5, with the Bills off a loss and in pretty much a must-win spot at home. We figured 7 was just too much for the Pats to lay on the road. That said, every bet we’ve written so far has been on the Patriots, so don’t be surprised if this game gets to -7.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Atlanta had a nice four-game SU and ATS streak that included beating both participants in last year’s Super Bowl, back-to-back. But the Falcons (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) have come down to earth with two straight setbacks, including a 33-30 overtime loss to San Diego as a 4.5-point home chalk Sunday.

Green Bay (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) rebounded from its home loss to Dallas by besting Chicago 26-10 as a 7.5-point home fave in the Thursday night game.

“The Falcons are coming off back-to-back losses, but easily could have won both games outright,” Childs said. “The Packers come into this game off a solid win at home on Thursday night, so they have some added rest and prep time for this game. I personally had this game power-rated at Falcons -3.5, but the Packers always garner public support. Knowing the public will have the Pack here in this game, we opened a solid 3, and we’ve seen real nice two-way action at that number.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Dallas has a rookie quarterback (Dak Prescott), a rookie running back (Ezekiel Elliott) – and is tied for the best record in the NFC. The Cowboys (5-1 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, which followed a road upset of Green Bay, 30-16 catching 5 points in Week 6.

Philadelphia (4-2 SU and ATS) halted its two-game SU and ATS skid with a 21-10 victory Sunday as a 3-point home ‘dog against previously unbeaten Minnesota.

“A monster game for both teams. If the Eagles want any chance at contending for the NFC East, they have to win this game, or else they fall a full two games behind the Cowboys,” Childs said. “The Eagles are off a very nice win at home as a 3-point ‘dog, when the entire betting world went against them. The Cowboys come into this game off a bye, but I’m not sure that helps, as they were red-hot, winning and covering five straight games.

“We opened Cowboys -4.5 and really haven’t see any early action so far, which tells me that the line is solid and won’t move much off the opener.”

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, no line

The two contestants in last season’s NFC Championship Game have fallen far from that form. Defending NFC champ Carolina (1-5 SU and ATS) is coming off a much-needed bye week, having lost four in a row SU and ATS. That includes a 41-38 setback at New Orleans giving 2.5 points in Week 6.

Meanwhile, Arizona (3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) dominated the clock and total yards against Seattle, but couldn’t put up points, settling for a 6-6 tie as a 1.5-point home favorite. Since that came in the Sunday night game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag had to hold off on posting the Cards-Panthers line until Monday.

In that NFC title tilt. Carolina rolled 49-15 laying 3 points at home.