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NCAAF Opening Line Report: Mississippi State live dogs vs. Alabama

So will the No. 1 team in the Southeastern Conference – which also happens to be the No. 1 team in all the land – finally succumb, as all its SEC brethren have so far this season? That’s the big question for Week 12 in college football, with Mississippi State traveling to face fourth-ranked Alabama in a matchup with major implications for the first-ever four team playoff at season’s end.

The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) have already fended off challenges from Louisiana State, Texas A&M and Auburn – dispatching all three in a row while covering all three games. This past weekend, Mississippi State ostensibly had a bye, wiping out FCS squad Tennessee Martin 45-16 while failing to cash as a 45-point home chalk.

The Crimson Tide (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) come in off a big win, besting Louisiana State 20-13 in overtime to narrowly cover as a 6.5-point road favorite. Still, the Tide are among the worst spread-covering teams in the nation.

“After a physical and emotional win at LSU, will the Tide have anything left in the tank for another bruiser?” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “It’s a great matchup between a special Mississippi State ground attack and a sound ‘Bama run defense. The Bulldogs have basically been preparing for two weeks, and I think they are a very live dog here.”

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)

Auburn likely flushed its playoff hopes down the drain with its 41-38 home loss to Texas A&M – a game in which the Tigers were favored by 23.5 points. Auburn dropped to 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS with its second setback in the last three weeks.

And if misery loves company, say hello to Georgia (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS), which inexplicably lost to 11.5-point underdog Florida two weekends ago to blow its playoff hopes. The Bulldogs bounced back to drub Kentucky 63-31 as a 10-point road chalk Saturday.

“I’m not so sure Auburn can regroup quickly enough from the way that upset went down,” Lester said. “They came out in ‘show up and win’ mode and have to be mentally deflated right now. Georgia played like a team with no pressure on its shoulders against Kentucky. The Bulldogs get running back Todd Gurley back, and they deserve to be chalk in Athens.”

Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (+2)

Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost a game outright in nearly two years, last falling 37-26 laying 7 points at home against Florida on Nov. 24, 2012. The Seminoles (9-0 SU) kept it going with a 34-20 win over Virginia, but came up short as 21-point faves to fall to 2-7 ATS – tied with a batch of teams for the second-worst spread-covering mark in the country.

Miami (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), coming off a bye week, has heated up lately with a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, winning and cashing the last three in a row in blowout fashion. The Hurricanes ripped North Carolina 47-20 on Nov. 1 as a 16.5-point home favorite.

“Another week, another sleep-walk performance by the defending champs,” Lester said, noting Florida State trailed Virginia 13-7 at the end of the first quarter. “They can’t afford to fall in another hole against the Hurricanes. It’s going to catch up with them sooner or later. We expect to get sharp support on Miami, while most of the public will be on the ‘Noles.”

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)

Nebraska (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) is flying under the radar in the Big 10, but could end up competing for the conference title. The Huskers head to Madison with an extra week of rest after a bye, following their 35-14 home win over Purdue to push as a 21-point chalk.

Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won four in row SU and three in a row ATS, and is also coming off a win over Purdue, rolling the host Boilermakers 34-16 on Saturday while giving 16.5 points.

“The winner is likely to represent the West in the conference championship game, so in theory, a great chance to get into the (national championship) playoff is on the line,” Lester said. “I don’t ever feel like you can trust the Cornhuskers to show up and win these big games. But it looks like they’ll have (running back) Ameer Abdullah available after the bye week, and he makes a huge difference.

“The fantastic home-field advantage Madison provides made the Badgers favorites.”

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 12

Tuesday, November 11

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AKRON (4 - 5) at BUFFALO (3 - 6) - 11/11/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TOLEDO (6 - 3) at N ILLINOIS (7 - 2) - 11/11/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-1 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, November 11

8:00 PM
TOLEDO vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toledo is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games

8:00 PM
AKRON vs. BUFFALO
Akron is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Akron
Buffalo is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Akron

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Toledo at Northern Illinois
The Rockets head to Northern Illinois tonight where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Huskies. Toledo is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+5). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 301-302: Akron at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 68.254; Buffalo 62.576
Dunkel Line: Akron by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Akron by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-3 1/2); Under

Game 303-304: Toledo at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 80.212; Northern Illinois 75.181
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 5; 63
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 5; 59
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+5); Over




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Tuesday's games
Buffalo won four of last five games with Akron, but teams haven't met since 2011; Zips lost last three visits here by 41-4-16 points, but have zero desire to back team that already fired its coach this year (Buffalo). Bulls lost last four games, allowing 32.5 ppg; they're 1-6 SU vs I-A foes, 1-4 vs spread as an underdog. Akron is 0-3-1 as a favorite, 1-3 SU away from home, with only win as 20-point dog at Pitt. Zips lost last three in row overall,. scoring 17 ppg.

Northern Illinois won its last four games with Toledo, scoring 48.5 ppg; Rockets lost last three visits here, by 7-35-31 points. Huskies won last three games, scoring 38 ppg; they're 0-3 as MAC home fave, winning by 3-10 points with loss to Central Michigan. Toledo won five of its last six games, scoring 34 ppg; they're 0-3 as an underdog this season, losing by 25-24-7 points. NIU has 765 rushing yards in last two games; they were held in 123-110 in its losses. MAC home favorites are 6-13 vs spread.




NCAAF

Tuesday, November 11

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Tuesday college football betting preview: Akron at Buffalo, Toledo at Northern Illinois
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Akron Zips at Buffalo Bulls (+3.5, 50)

The Buffalo Bulls and Akron Zips have both been hemorrhaging points over the past few weeks, so don't surprised to see a shootout at UB Stadium on Tuesday night when the Mid-American Conference rivals face off. The Zips come into this one having dropped three in a row while surrendering 85 points during the skid. The Bulls can do one better - or rather, worse; they've lost four in a row while allowing an average of 32.5 points during the streak.

The Bulls were never close in last week's 37-14 rout at the hands of the Ohio Bobcats, falling behind 17-0 at halftime before finally registering points on a Ron Willoughby 12-yard TD reception and Boise Ross's 75-yard fumble return for a score. Buffalo was torched for 389 total yards while managing a scant 134 of its own. The Zips had 398 yards in last week's loss to Bowling Green, but managed just a Jawon Chisholm rushing TD and a Robert Stein field goal.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 20 percent chance of showers and wind blowing north at 15 mph.

ABOUT AKRON (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS, 2-7 O/U): It isn't enough that the Zips have lost three in a row following a three-game winning streak - they were also slight favorites in each game. Quarterback Kyle Pohl returned to action following a two-game absence and promptly laid an egg against Bowling Green, going 31-for-62 for 304 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Chisholm was the lone bright spot for the Zips in that defeat, rushing for 65 yards and a score on just 10 carries after being held to 19 yards on five attempts the previous week.

ABOUT BUFFALO (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Junior quarterback Joe Licata had what was easily his worst game of the season against the Bobcats, completing just 9-of-20 passes for 74 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Licata had come into the game having thrown for 516 yards and five scores over his previous two outings. No. 1 running back Anthone Taylor also had a long day, compiling just 37 yards on 17 carries; it was the second straight dud for the junior, who had 14 rushes for 25 yards in a 20-14 loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 25.

TRENDS:

* Akron is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with losing records.
* Under is 13-3 in the Zips' last 16 road games.
* Under is 13-6 in the Bulls' last 19 conference games.



Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies (-4, 59)

A perfect record in Mid-American Conference play still isn't enough to make the Toledo Rockets the favorite Tuesday night as they visit the Northern Illinois Huskies in a pivotal West Division matchup. The Rockets improved to 5-0 in MAC competition with last week's 30-20 victory at Kent State, and resume a stretch of four road games in five tilts Tuesday. The Huskies have been impressive in their own right, winning three in a row to move to 4-1 in MAC play.

The key to Toledo remaining untouched atop the West ledger will be finding a way to slow down Northern Illinois running back Cameron Stingily. The senior sensation rumbled for 148 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries in last week's 35-21 victory at Ball State and has now scored six times in his last three games. But the Rockets can certainly fight fire with fire, coming into the week ranked 20th in the nation at better than 245 rushing yards per contest.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2

WEATHER: Temperatures are expected to be in the low-30s with cloudy skies and wind blowing to the northwest at 20 mph.

ABOUT TOLEDO (6-3 SU, 2-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Rockets' offense is led by sophomore running back Kareem Hunt, who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all six games he has played this season. Hunt missed three games earlier this year with an ankle injury, but has returned with vigor - rumbling for 339 yards and a touchdown on 44 carries in victories over Massachusetts and Kent State. Quarterback Logan Woodside suffered a leg injury against the Golden Flashes and will likely be a game-time decision.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Stingily has clearly put his mid-season struggles behind him; after averaging fewer than four yards per carry in games against Kent State and Central Michigan, he has run for better than five yards per attempt in three straight games. His surge has taken plenty of pressure off quarterback Drew Hare, who has thrown just 47 total passes the previous three weeks. Hare has, however, been a force on the ground, rushing for 386 yards and three scores in that span.

TRENDS:

* Toledo is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Northern Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
* Under is 8-0 in the Rockets' last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Northern Illinois.

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NCAAF line watch: Wait for better line before backing South Carolina

Spread to bet now

Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5) vs. LSU Tigers

Arkansas opened as a -1.5 point home favorite over LSU, and the books have already moved the line up to -2.5 on this game. I expect this line to go up again and hit the key number of 3, so shrewd bettors should jump on this game now.

LSU is off a tough, 20-13 home overtime loss to Alabama. The Tigers went into that game off a bye, and they had the game won. But they gave up the game-tying field goal as time expired, and ended up losing in overtime. Arkansas comes into this game off their bye week, so they are in a much better scheduling and situational spot. Bettors should play this game now and take the best of the number.

Spread to wait on

South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) at Florida Gators

This line came out with Florida as a 5-point home favorite over South Carolina, and early money quickly came in on the favorite, moving the line up to -6.5. This line should tick up to the key number of 7 at some point, and bettors should jump on it when it appears.

Florida is off back-to-back blowout wins as they beat Georgia 38-20 as 11.5-point underdogs and last week they crushed Vanderbilt 34-10 as 14.5-point favorites. South Carolina has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and they come into this game off their bye. Four of the Gamecocks five losses this season have come by 7 points or less. Wait and take South Carolina at a better line, preferably +7 or more.

Total to watch

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies

Missouri and Texas A&M are complete opposites. Missouri has a terrible offense and a pretty good defense. Texas A&M has a potent offense and a terrible defense. This total will be an extremely difficult one for the oddsmakers to set.

The Tigers come into this game off their bye while the Aggies come in off their huge 41-38 upset win as a +23.5-point road underdog at Auburn. That scheduling dynamic also creates another key variable in setting this total. Texas A&M is only a 5.5-point favorite, so my inclination is that this total will be shaded more towards Missouri numbers; their average conference total has closed at 50.5 this season.

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 11

November 9, 2014

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 11th college football weekend in a big separation Saturday. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Toledo (-13) 30, Kent State 20: Toledo was in charge in this Tuesday night MAC game with a 30-7 lead with fewer than four minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Flashes put together a great drive in just two minutes of game clock to get back within 16 before the start of the fourth quarter. Kent State took advantage of great field position after a fumble, the Flashes added another touchdown early in the final frame to get within 10 after a failed two-point try. Kent State actually had a chance to make it a game as they took the next drive into the Toledo territory before a fumble ended the threat, but the late rally was enough for the home underdog cover.

Penn State (-6) 13, Indiana 7: The Nittany Lions fell behind 7-0 against Indiana with an interception returned for a touchdown after over 26 minutes of scoreless action. On their first play from scrimmage on the next possession, Penn State tied the game. A field goal put Penn State up just 10-7 heading into the fourth quarter and Indiana missed on a long try to answer early in the fourth quarter. With a closing spread of -6 for the road favorite, the final minutes brought great drama as an interception with just over two minutes to go in the game set Penn State up at the Indiana 24-yard line. It was first and goal just one play later, but those on the favorite did not get the game-sealing touchdown they hoped for as the Nittany Lions settled for a short field goal leaving most with a push.

Michigan (-1½) 10, Northwestern 9: Along with the Penn State/Indiana game, the Big Ten did not provide an impressive offensive display in some of Saturday’s action, with neither Michigan or Northwestern scoring in the first half. Michigan would take a 7-0 lead after a 21-yard drive over 38 minutes into the game taking advantage of a Northwestern fumble on a punt return. In the fourth quarter, Northwestern starting on its own 1-yard line went 19 plays and 95 yards only to settle for a field goal and Michigan was able to answer just four minutes later to push the lead back to seven with just over three minutes to go. Trevor Siemian led the Wildcats on a great drive to find the end zone with just three seconds to go in the game, but fittingly given the way the last two seasons for Northwestern have gone, he slipped as the Wildcats went for two and the win. Northwestern was the early favorite in the game, but most on the Wildcats were happy to see the failed conversion and no overtime as it made the host the spread winner with most getting +1½ or +2 on Northwestern.

Wisconsin (-16½) 34, Purdue 16: After a slow start, Wisconsin pulled away late in the second quarter at Purdue, taking a 24-6 lead into halftime, just past the spread that dipped late in the week from -17½ to -16½. Purdue would score the first 10 points out of halftime to make it a one-score game, making the heavy underdog cover look quite promising. The Badgers were able to fend off any upset risk with a late third quarter score, but they led by just 15 heading into the final frame. A long Wisconsin drive early in the fourth resulted in a short field goal and that would be enough for the road favorite cover as a Purdue drive into Wisconsin territory later in the final quarter came up empty.

Appalachian State (-4) 31, UL-Monroe 29: The spread on this game moved from -2½ all the way up to -5 before settling at -4 for the Mountaineers. Early on, it looked like an upset was underway as UL-Monroe carried some momentum from the respectable performance at Texas A&M last week into a 20-7 lead well into the second quarter. Appalachian State would take all the momentum into halftime with two touchdowns in the final 2:24. A Warhawks field goal put the road squad up by two heading into the fourth, but an 89-yard drive resulting in a touchdown with just six minutes to go put Appalachian State past the spread with a five-point lead. With less than two minutes to go, UL-Monroe put together a go-ahead scoring drive going 72 yards in 14 plays and with a missed two-point conversion, the Warhawks led by one. It would be enough for the cover, but Appalachian State would steal the victory, going 53 yards in the final two minutes to set up a 39-yard game winning kick.

Duke (-4) 27, Syracuse 10: Good fortune for Duke continued last week as a dogfight with very limited yardage well into the second half resulted in a final score with Duke winning by 17. Syracuse scored with five minutes to go in the third quarter to tie the game at 10-10, but in the fourth quarter, Duke pinned the Orange back deep and eventually turned the defensive stand into a 52-yard punt return touchdown. Down just seven, Syracuse aggressively went for it on fourth down from their own 31 and failed, setting up a quick Duke field goal. On its next drive, Syracuse was intercepted, a turnover which Duke turned into a touchdown just two plays later as the fourth quarter provided the Blue Devils with a substantial cushion after a great struggle through three quarters against Syracuse who started a third-string quarterback.

Florida (-14½) 34, Vanderbilt 14: The Commodores scored first against Florida and for much of the game, one touchdown looked like enough for the underdog to cover. Florida led just 17-7 entering the final frame, but the Gators completed a touchdown drive just on the other side of the fourth quarter to lead 24-7, past the spread for the first time in the game. A field goal for Vanderbilt put the margin to 14, even with the common spread and short of the hook that many on the Gators dealt with. It wound up not mattering as Florida wound up with 17 fourth quarter points to match its output in the rest of the game to pull away.

Louisville (-3) 38, Boston College 19: The Eagles took a 13-3 lead early against Louisville, but by halftime the Cardinals led by four, just past a spread that sat at -3 or -3½ for the road favorite. Both teams scored touchdowns in the third quarter, but Boston College went for two and failed after a score late in the frame, leaving a five-point deficit. Turnovers burned Boston College in the fourth quarter as Louisville added 14 points late on short drives while Boston College quarterback Tyler Murphy was picked off on three consecutive possession for the Eagles in the fourth quarter to make a misleading final in what was a competitive game.

Rice (-7½) 17, Texas-San Antonio 7: While this line dropped sharply in the late morning Saturday, anyone that played the game Thursday or Friday likely wound up with a push with the Owls at -10. Those on both sides had valid gripes with that result. Rice wound up with a substantial yardage edge early in the game but failed to cash in often, including two missed field goals. Rice took a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter, but the Texas-San Antonio offense put together a great drive behind quarterback Austin Robinson who came into the game in relief, getting the Roadrunners back within 10 early in the fourth quarter. Right before halftime, Texas-San Antonio had botched its time management as they came away with zero points and not even a field goal attempt despite getting to the three-yard line and the end of the game featured another red zone failure from the Roadrunners. With limited time on the clock and no timeouts, the Roadrunners blazed down the field, seemingly assuring a backdoor underdog cover, but a sack produced a fumble at the five-yard line to seal the game and closing line cover for the Owls.

Old Dominion (-5) 38, Florida International 35: The Monarchs led 21-7 early in this Conference USA clash, but the Panthers would have the next four scoring plays, taking a 27-21 lead late in the third quarter. Old Dominion would regroup to score late in the third quarter to take the lead back 28-27, but the Panthers answered early in the fourth with a long run for a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion put FIU up by seven. Getting the ball back with just over four minutes to go the Monarchs were able the march down the field including a big fourth down conversion, ultimately getting the tying touchdown with about a minute to go. Overtime seemed likely, but the Panthers tried to make something happen on their final possession, winding up with a critical interception that put Old Dominion immediately in field goal range. The Monarchs hit a 24-yard pass play to make the final kick even easier, but it was not enough for the home favorite to cover.

Tulsa (-14) 38, SMU 28: Fading the Mustangs has been a popular move at any price, thus a 1-7 Tulsa team entered this game as a two-touchdown favorite. Winless SMU scored first and bizarrely went for two, a statement play gone wrong for a program that has had little go right this season. The Mustangs would score another touchdown in the first quarter despite scoring a total of just five touchdowns over the first seven games of the season. Tulsa took over from there with four consecutive touchdowns to take a 35-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter as the favorite cover looked safe. SMU to its credit, kept fighting and the Mustangs nearly doubled its season touchdown output as they added two fourth quarter touchdowns to close within seven points after getting a successful two-point conversion with just over three minutes to go. Those on Tulsa had a chance late, but with a minute to go, the Hurricane settled for a 24-yard field goal as the ugly underdog earned the cover.

Alabama (-6½) 20, LSU 13: This hyped SEC West clash lived up to the billing and the history of what has been a great series the last decade. LSU struck first, but entering the fourth quarter, the game was tied 10-10 and the score stayed put that way for the first 14 minutes of the final frame. With just over two minutes to go, LSU delivered on special teams to pin Alabama back at the one-yard line to start what seemed likely to be the final drive of regulation, but on second down, T.J. Yeldon was stripped with LSU recovering at the six-yard line. Forgive anyone on the underdog for counting their money at that point, but a bizarre finish was in store. A questionable personal foul penalty pushed LSU backwards and after Alabama stuffed the run and used its timeouts, the Tide still had 50 seconds to work with after the Tigers hit a 39-yard field goal to go up 13-10. Blake Sims led an impressive drive with no timeouts, a drive that did include a critical 22-yard pass reception that might have been questionable on review, but that the Tide followed up with a spike in quick order to prevent any further investigation. With the clock ticking down, Sims connected to DeAndrew White who got out of bounds to stop the clock, setting up the game tying kick with just a few ticks left.

In overtime, Alabama went first, gaining 24 yards on a trick play on first down, but then also was hit with a suspect personal foul to set the Tide back. Eventually, Alabama connected for the go-ahead touchdown, getting narrowly past the spread for the first time all night. LSU seemed likely to get a solid gain on first down, but the pass was dropped and the Tigers seemed to panic, throwing to the end zone rather than trying to gain a first down and departing from its strengths with three more incomplete passes to end the game. A case could have been made for pass interference on two of the plays, but Alabama was able to escape in dramatic fashion and those on LSU suffered one of the most painful spread losses possible.

Florida State (-21) 34, Virginia 20: After stealing a late cover last week in a dramatic win over Louisville, the Seminoles wound up short of the heavy favorite spread this week on a number that bounced around substantially throughout the week. Virginia led 13-7 early, but Florida State took over in the second quarter with the help of turnovers, scoring two of three touchdowns on drives of three and 22 yards respectively. Virginia climbed back within eight in the second half, but the Seminoles were up by 14 heading into the fourth quarter with the spread result still in doubt. Much to the chagrin of anyone on the ‘over’ priced at 55, neither team scored in the fourth as a long Virginia drive down to the Florida State eight-yard line resulted in a failed fourth down try and the Seminoles were able to take a knee from inside the Virginia 20 at the end of the game.

Western Kentucky (-9) 35, UTEP 27: The Hilltoppers were favored by -7½ to -8 most of the week before this line shot up to -9 on Saturday. It made a difference as those on the Miners at the shorter numbers suffered a brutal finish. UTEP led 20-7 early and then 27-14 late into the third quarter. Western Kentucky got back within six heading into the fourth and then got a game-changing 90-yard interception return touchdown to take a 28-27 lead early in the fourth quarter, the second time in three weeks Western Kentucky benefited from a late interception return of 90 or more yards. The Hilltoppers added another touchdown a few minutes later as the collapse continued for the stunned Miners, with the game ending with an eight-point margin.

Marshall (-26) 63, Southern Miss 17: As they have done a few times this season, undefeated Marshall kept the heat on in the fourth quarter of a convincing win. While any consideration for a national playoff spot is a pipe dream for the Herd, this will be a team out to impress the rest of the way. Marshall led by just 11 at halftime and by just 25 entering the fourth quarter, just shy of the huge road favorite spread that was late to come out this week with the starting quarterback for Southern Miss ultimately sitting out. A one play, 83-yard drive in the first minute of the fourth quarter put Marshall past the number and the Herd added two more late scores for good measure.

Georgia Southern (-12) 28, Texas State 25: Against-the-spread darling Georgia Southern saw an early jump from -10 to -14 this week before late buyback brought the closing line to just -12. With a 100-yard interception return to close the third quarter, the great spread run seemed poised to continue as the Eagles led 28-10. Texas State made things interesting late with two touchdowns in the final seven minutes including a two-point conversion to make it a three-point game, but the on-side kick failed as Georgia Southern moved to 8-2, but suffered just its second ATS loss of the season as well.

Arizona (-18½) 38, Colorado 20: While the closing line calls Arizona the spread loser in this game, the majority of folks on the game saw a number that was steady at -17 much of the week. Covering did not look even remotely possible for Arizona much of the way on Saturday as Colorado led 17-14 before Arizona scored just seconds before halftime. The Wildcats led just 24-20 heading into the fourth quarter, but the game turned with a Colorado interception that lined up a short field for Arizona. With a touchdown, the Wildcats went up by 11 with about 10 minutes to go and then added another touchdown with about six minutes to go. The Buffaloes advanced near midfield on their final possession, but came up empty and the game ended with Arizona taking a knee inside the Colorado 20-yard line.

Arizona State (-3) 55, Notre Dame 31: With sloppy play from Everett Golson, Arizona State stormed out to a 34-3 lead early in this big Saturday showdown, but the Irish would climb back into the game, matching the closing spread with a 34-31 deficit with six minutes to go in the game, though for most the line on slight favorite Sun Devils was less than a field goal. It didn’t matter as the Sun Devils answered and then put the game away with an interception return touchdown in the final minutes as Golson wound up with five turnovers.

Oregon (-9½) 51, Utah 27: Those that didn’t stay up for this late night Pac-12 clash were greeted to a misleading final score in the morning as the Ducks led just 27-20 entering the fourth quarter. The key play of the game may have been one of the blunders of the year as Utah wide receiver Kaelin Clay sprinted towards the end zone to seemingly put the Utes up 14-0, but he dropped the ball intentionally before crossing the goal line in the same vein as former Pac-12 wide receiver DeSean Jackson has done. Worse than the ball going out of bounds for a touchback, it stayed in play and Oregon defender Joe Walker took it the other way for a touchdown that completely changed the complexion of the game and took the air out of a hostile home stadium. After falling behind 24-7, the Utes did regain their composure and were within the spread heading into the fourth quarter, actually climbing to within three points with less than 12 minutes on the clock. Oregon would score three late touchdowns including two in a span of 26 seconds late in the game to pull away, leaving with a 4-1 turnover edge in a game that was much closer than the final score.

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College Betting Recap - Week 11

November 9, 2014


Overall Notes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-12
Against the Spread 23-25-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 22-27
Against the Spread 19-29-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 27-22
The largest underdog to cash
Texas A&M (+23.5, ML +1100) at Auburn, 41-38

The largest favorite to cash
Marshall (-27) at Southern Mississippi, 63-17

Top 25 Notes


-- It was a topsy-turvy day in the Top 10 in college football, with teams going 6-4 straight-up and 4-6 ATS. One of those games was a Top 10 battle between Kansas State-Texas Christian. Michigan State also lost 49-37 at home to Ohio State, while Auburn was stunned at home by Texas A&M in the biggest upset of the weekend.

-- Marshall continues to stomp all comers, winning 63-17 at Southern Mississippi to cover a big number. They're a perfect 9-0 SU, but more importantly they have covered seven of the past eight.

-- After a hiccup at West Virginia Oct. 18, Baylor is rolling again. They absolutely undressed Oklahoma 48-14 as a 5.5-point underdog in Norman. The biggest surprise might be the fact the 'under' is 3-2 in Baylor's past five.

-- Duke continues to fly under the radar, mainly because they're named Duke. However, this is a very good football team. They covered again on the road at Syracuse, improving to 8-1 SU and 6-1 ATS over their past seven games, including three in a row on the road and four straight overall.

-- UCLA has won four in a row since a 42-30 loss to Oregon, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time all season after a 44-30 win at Washington.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Georgia Tech routed North Carolina State on the road, 56-23. The Yellow Jackets are now 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven visits to Carter-Finley Stadium, and 9-3-2 ATS in their past 14 against N.C. State overall. ... Louisville started slow, but eventually doubled up Boston College 38-19. That's four straight road covers for the Cardinals. ... Florida State remains unbeaten, but they failed to cover again in a 34-20 win against Virginia. The Seminoles are just 2-7 ATS against the number this season.

-- Minnesota was a short home dog, but they blew the doors off of Iowa 51-14, claiming the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. It was Minnesota's first cover since Oct. 11 against Northwestern, a span of three games. ... 'Over' bettors had a glimmer of hope when the Wildcats scored late to make it 10-9, pending the extra point, against Michigan. However, head coach Pat Fitzgerald elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win, eliminating overtime as a possibility, and killing the over for good. ... After Ohio State's win, they have won seven straight since their loss to Virginia Tech Sept. 6, and they're 6-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' has cashed in eight straight games for the Buckeyes, who have 31 or more points in each games during the span, and 21 or more points in each of their nine outings.

-- It was a day of the dog in the Big 12, with underdogs going 3-1 ATS. The over favorite to win was TCU upending K-State 41-20 in Fort Worth. It was also a day of the 'under', with only, again, TCU-K-State as the outlier.

-- Washington State lost QB Connor Halliday (ankle) last week to an ugly injury, so they turned to Luke Falk for his first collegiate start. And it was a successful start. The Cougs, who were eliminated from bowl eligibility last week, won 39-32 in Corvallis against Oregon State. The Beavers have failed to cover in four straight, and the over is 4-0-1 in the past five. ... Colorado covered an 18.5-point spread - barely. They lost 38-20 at Arizona. While they have won just once in the past eight outings, they are a respectable 5-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' against Arizona snapped a five-game 'over' run for the Buffs.

-- Mississippi and Mississippi State each stepped out of conference, and out of FBS, to battle Presbyterian and Tennessee-Martin. Both teams won handily, but they each failed to cover big numbers. ... Florida's resurgence continues, as they won and covered on the road in Nashville against Vanderbilt. The Gators have won back-to-back games for the first time since early September, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time all season. ... Alabama was on the rope, down 13-10 late at LSU, but they booted a field goal with :03 left in regulation, later winning OT. See the bad beats (below) for the rest of the story.

Mid-Major Report

-- If you like underdogs, the AAC is for you. 'Dogs went 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS this weekend, with Tulane winning 31-24 outright at Houston. The 'over' hit in three of the four games, and all three on Saturday.

-- In Conference USA, Rice has been cooking lately. The Owls have won and covered six in a row, lasting losing back on Sept. 20. ... Louisiana Tech went on the road at Alabama-Birmingham 40-24, and they have now won five consecutive games and they have covered three straight and five of the past six. The Bulldogs have a week off before traveling to Old Dominion Nov. 22.

-- Hawaii was back on the mainland, and that's usually a losing combination. The Warriors are winless in four trips to the contiguous 48, and they're 0-3-1 ATS in the four trips, including Saturday's 49-22 drumming at the hands of Colorado State, a 21-point favorite. ... Speaking of the Rams, they have won eight in a row, and they are 6-2 ATS during the impressive stretch. The 'over' has also cashed in three straight for CSU. ... The 'over' continues to be the play for Tulsa, cashing in four straight, and eight of nine this season.

-- The Mid-American Conference (MAC) had its schedule mid-week, with two games Tuesday and two games Wednesday. The road team went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, and the under was a perfect 4-0.

Bad Beats

-- If you had LSU plus the points at home, you were likely feeling great all evening long. The Tigers were catching 6.5 at home, and they were covering the entire time in regulation. The only time they were failing to cover, after Alabama's first possession, which they cashed in for a touchdown. LSU failed on their possession, and the Tide won 20-13. Tide ticket holders were elated, and Tigers ticket holders were left sick to the stomach.

-- Ole Miss held a 35-0 lead at halftime, and appeared well on their way to covering a 50.5-point spread against Presbyterian. The Rebels scored a touchdown with 10:01 left in the fourth quarter, needing just three points for the spread to hit. The Blue Hose defense kept the Rebels at bay for the rest of the game.

-- 'Under' bettors liked the first three quarters of UConn-Army, with 28 total points through the first 45 minutes. The two teams combined for 28 points in the final stanza, including two touchdowns in the final 2:06 to push the total over.

-- The South Alabama-Arkansas State game appeared headed for an 'under' (52.5), but USA found the end zone with 1:22 left to turn the total result into an 'over'.

-- Tulsa was a two-touchdown favorite, and they lead 35-20 with 3:15 to go until SMU punched in a touchdown to draw to within 35-28. The Golden Hurricane drove down to the SMU 7, but settled for a field goal with 1:08 to go, failing to cover. It was close, but...

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Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 11

November 10, 2014


Week 11 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Mississippi State (W-L vs. UT Martin 45-16)
The Dogs had their tune-up, but now, they have to get ready for the biggest game in school history at Alabama.

2) Florida State (W-L vs. Virginia 34-20)
It's not stunning that FSU was once again trailing in this game. The Noles just aren't right, but they're still winning.

3) Auburn (L-L vs. Texas A&M 41-38)
Defensive woes nearly cost Auburn in each of the last two weeks. They finally got the Tigers against A&M.

4) Oregon (W-W vs. Utah 51-27)
The Ducks still can't feel comfortable about being in the Top 4 if they win out.

5) Alabama (W-W vs. LSU 20-13)
The Crimson Tide made the big statement when they had to, coming from behind to beat LSU on the road.

6) TCU (W-W vs. Kansas State 41-20)
For our money, the coast is totally clear for TCU now. It might still take some help to get into the playoff, though.

7) Kansas State (L-L vs. TCU 41-20)
Any hopes of a Big XII title are probably gone for the Wildcats.

8) Michigan State (L-L vs. Ohio State 49-37)
No one saw MSU giving up over 500 yards in this game.

9) Arizona State (W-W vs. Notre Dame 55-31)
Arizona State all of a sudden might control its own destiny to get into the playoff.

10) Notre Dame (L-L vs. Arizona State 55-31)
Everett Golson picked a bad time to throw four picks in a game.

11) Ole Miss (W-L vs. Presbyterian 48-0)
SEC teams should be much better than to schedule games like these, but they all do it.

12) Baylor (W-W vs. Oklahoma 48-14) The Bears were dominant, but they can't like what they see going on around them. 11-1 won't be enough to get into the playoff in all likelihood.

13) Nebraska (Bye)

14) Ohio State (W-W vs. Michigan State 49-37)
The Buckeyes will need some help, but they should win out from here and have a shot to be in the playoff.

15) Oklahoma (L-L vs. Baylor 48-14)
The only thing that made that loss to Baylor worse was losing Trevor Knight to a leg injury.

16) LSU (L-L vs. Alabama 20-13)
The worst break in the world came Saturday night when LSU bettors couldn't stick in front of +6.5 in spite of the fact that the whole game before OT was razor close.

17) Utah (L-L vs. Oregon 51-27)
Do yourself a favor and watch the Utah fumble in the end zone that turned into a 99-yard TD for Oregon… That was the end of the season for the Utes right then and there.

18) UCLA (W-W vs. Washington 44-30)
The Bruins have quietly been picking up steam in the Pac-12.

19) Arizona (W-L vs. Colorado 38-20)
This one was much closer than the final score suggested.

20) Georgia (W-W vs. Kentucky 63-31)
Many thought UGA was on upset alert in this one.

21) Clemson (W-L vs. Wake Forest 34-20)
The best news for Tigers fans? Deshaun Watson could be back next week.

22) Duke (W-W vs. Syracuse 27-10)
The Dookies are three wins away from a trip to the ACC title game for the second straight year.

23) West Virginia (L-L vs. Texas 33-16
The Mountaineers proved that Austin is still a tough place to play.

24) Georgia Tech (W-W vs. NC State 56-23)
The Ramblin' Wreck rumbled for 479 yards on the ground, and they did so without their top two running backs.

25) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Purdue 34-16)
The Badgers can still win the Big Ten if they can win out.

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Gurley returns as No. 1 RB for Georgia

November 10, 2014

ATHENS, Ga. (AP) - Todd Gurley is listed as the starting tailback for No. 16 Georgia when it plays No. 9 Auburn this week.

The junior is returning from a four-game NCAA suspension for taking $3,000 for autographed memorabilia and other items over two years. He was a leading Heisman Trophy candidate before the ban.

Freshman Nick Chubb filled in with four strong starts for the Bulldogs as Gurley's replacement. Chubb ranks third in the Southeastern Conference in rushing, leading to speculation he might keep the starting job.

Monday's depth chart listed Gurley, Chubb and freshman Sony Michel at tailback. On Sunday, coach Mark Richt said no decision had been made on a starting tailback.

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TCU, Baylor clear Big 12 front-runners

November 10, 2014

Two weeks ago, West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen starting preparing for a Baylor team that was coming off a wild comeback win over TCU.

Last week, he flipped the script and examined that game as he and the Mountaineers prepped to play TCU.

Which one is better?

''I'd hate to have to choose between them, so good luck to the (playoff) committee,'' Holgorsen said Monday. ''We've played a lot of good football teams, and those two are as good as I've seen. If they continue to win in the Big 12 and finish 11-1, then they should be in the top four. That's for certain.''

No. 5 TCU and No. 6 Baylor (both 8-1 overall, 5-1 Big 12) are the clear front-runners if the Big 12 is going to grab one of the spots in the new four-team playoff.

Oklahoma is the only team that has played the Frogs, Bears and No. 13 Kansas State (7-2, 5-1), losing to all of the Big 12 co-leaders. The Wildcats are likely out of playoff contention with two losses overall after a 41-20 loss at TCU on Saturday.

Asked on the weekly Big 12 coaches teleconference which of those three teams was the best, Sooners coach Bob Stoops said he wouldn't offer an opinion on that. But he made reference to that Oct. 11 game in which TCU led by 21 points in the fourth quarter only to see Baylor rally for a 61-58 win on the final play.

''As you look at right now, Baylor and TCU obviously are sitting at the top and they had a heck of a game that went down to the last seconds,'' Stoops said. ''Again, that's for everyone else to decide.''

Conference champions will be weighed heavily by the 12-member playoff selection committee for its final rankings Dec. 7. The Big 12 is the only power-five league without a championship game, but is the only one that plays a round-robin schedule.

If Baylor and TCU both finish 11-1, the Bears would have the head-to-head victory. But the Frogs won 31-30 at West Virginia two weeks after Baylor's two-touchdown loss there in its lowest-scoring game of the season.

When the playoff committee put out its first rankings two weeks ago, defending Big 12 champion Baylor was coming off an open date following the loss at West Virginia. TCU had won a pair of lopsided games since the setback in Waco, with an eye-catching 82 points against Texas Tech.

TCU has been the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the playoff rankings, starting at No. 7, six spots ahead of Baylor. That margin was unchanged last week when both were up one slot, after the Frogs' game-ending field goal at WVU and the Bears with an expected lopsided win at home against Kansas.

In the new AP and coaches polls released Sunday, TCU was fifth and Baylor was up four spots to sixth after an impressive 48-14 victory at Oklahoma. Kansas State dropped to 13th in both, and will also surely slip in the new playoff rankings Tuesday night after being seventh last week.

''The only thing we can control is to try to win out, be 11-1 and have an opportunity to be (Big 12) co-champions,'' TCU coach Gary Patterson said. ''Just how we play, and what the general public and the committee think about us when we get done ... we've just got to control our own destiny.''

TCU, after playing five ranked teams in a six-week span, has road games against Kansas and Texas before ending the regular season at home against Iowa State.

Baylor is off this week before playing Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State, the finale at home.

''Our mission when we started this season was to try to repeat as Big 12 champions, and that's still our goal,'' Baylor coach Art Briles said. ''We're not going to get our vision and our hopes and aspirations caught into the vapor right now. The reality is we have to go win.''

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Allen is making history at Tailback U

November 10, 2014

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Javorius Allen has rushed for 100 yards in six consecutive games, a feat last accomplished at Southern California by Marcus Allen during his Heisman Trophy-winning 1981 season.

It turns out Marcus Allen knew his unrelated successor in the USC backfield was capable of such success long before the tailback known as Buck emerged as one of the most productive running backs in the nation.

Marcus Allen, a Hall of Famer in the pro and college ranks, met with the Trojans shortly after Lane Kiffin's midseason dismissal last year. He encouraged the younger Allen to maintain his focus despite having been buried on the depth chart during the previous regime.

''He just said, `Buck, if you keep working the way you are working, it's going to pay off,''' Buck Allen said. ''And it did. Whatever you put in, that's what you are going to get out of it. And he was absolutely correct.''

Allen scored his first two career touchdowns in USC's next game before emerging as the feature back with 133 yards rushing and three touchdowns in a win at Oregon State. Since then, the Tallahassee, Florida, native has rushed for 100 yards in 12 of the last 15 games.

Pacing the Pac-12 with 124.9 yards rushing per game, Allen is on track to become the first USC player to lead the conference in rushing since Ricky Ervins did so in 1989 - a shocking drought for the school long known as Tailback U.

But Allen insists those totals mean nothing to him.

''I'm just here to help my team win,'' Allen said. ''Breaking records and stats and all that is not important for me. That's for the fans.''

''Unless someone brings it to my attention, I wouldn't even know,'' he added.

Offensive coordinator Clay Helton is much more willing to tout Allen's accomplishments, praising his maturation and development as a ''complete back.''

Helton credits Allen for becoming a tougher runner capable of grinding out yards between the tackles. His best trait, Helton noted, is the explosiveness Allen shows in the open field as a runner or receiver out of the backfield.

''Every time he breaks into that linebacker-secondary (level), I hold my breath because you really think that he is going to take it the distance,'' Helton said.

California, which comes to the Coliseum on Thursday night, knows exactly that feeling. Allen gutted the Golden Bears' defense for touchdowns of 43, 57 and 79 yards in a 62-28 win last season, totaling 192 yards on just seven touches.

While Cal has made significant strides this season under new defensive coordinator Art Kaufman, hearing Allen say the open week allowed him to ''get my legs back'' has to bring up visions of what he might do with a full workload.

Helton hinted that very scenario could happen, saying that Allen has the durability to easily handle 25 or more carries per game with his 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame. Coach Steve Sarkisian expects that winning the final three games of the regular season, including against rivals UCLA and Notre Dame, will require the full force of Allen's relentlessness.

It is that work ethic that has Allen in position to do what the likes of Reggie Bush and LenDale White could not. And even if Allen won't seek praise, teammates like freshman offensive lineman Toa Lobendahn will do it for him.

''I know it would be tremendous for him,'' Lobendahn said. ''He's been a hard-working guy since he has been here, and I haven't been here to see that. I could already tell when I got here.''

Helton said he cites Allen's progress as a path for young players to follow when they want more playing time.

''Some guys need to learn the game a little bit more and become a more polished player,'' Helton said. ''Buck was that. Buck was coming into his own. He didn't get frustrated. He kept on learning, he kept on progressing as a back, and then when given his opportunity, he made the most of it. He said, `I don't want to give this job up,' and he didn't.''

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Huskers look to overcome road demons

November 10, 2014

LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) - Nebraska goes into Saturday's game at No. 22 Wisconsin looking to overcome its demons in road games against opponents ranked in the Top 25.

The 11th-ranked Cornhuskers (8-1, 4-1 Big Ten) have lost four of their last five on the road against Top 25 teams. Since Bo Pelini took over in 2008, the Huskers are 3-8 in those games.

Pelini said Monday it's hard to beat good teams in tough environments. He said history will have nothing to do with what happens against the Badgers (7-2, 4-1).

In its only Top 25 road game this season, Nebraska was down 24 points in the fourth quarter to Michigan State before closing to 27-22. Each of the Huskers' previous three Top 25 road losses was by at least 25 points

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Wed, Nov. 12

Ball State at Massachusetts, 8:00 ET
Ball St: 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers
Mass: 6-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

Kent State at Bowling Green, 8:00 ET
Kent St: 8-19 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Bowling Green: 8-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Wednesday's games
Ball State had Iowa beat on Sept 6, but allowed two TDs in last 4:00 and lost 17-13, a bitter loss; they lost six of last eight games, but scored 32+ points in three of last four games. Cardinals are 3-1 as road dogs, with an upset win at Central Michigan, losses by 4-11-9 points. UMass is 2-7 but covered seven of last eight games- they scored 35+ points in each of last five games, covered only chance when favored. These teams have never met as MAC foes. MAC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread.

Kent State won three of last four games with Bowling Green; underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games. Kent won 31-24/30-6 in their last two visits here; Falcons threw for 355+ yards in last three games in series. Falcons won four of last five games but are 0-4 vs spread as fave this year, 0-2 at home- they allowed 42+ points in four of their first five games, but just 16.3 ppg in last three. Golden Flashes are 1-8, 1-3 when a road underdog, losing their MAC road games 17-14/10-3.

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NCAAF

Wednesday, November 12

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Wednesday college football betting preview: Ball State at Massachusetts, Kent State at Bowling Green
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Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen (-3.5, 61)

The Ball State Cardinals look to bounce back from one of their sloppiest games of the season as they prepare to visit the Massachusetts Minutemen in a Mid-American Conference showdown Wednesday night. Ball State committed five turnovers last week en route to a 35-21 defeat against visiting Northern Illinois that put the brakes on a two-game winning streak. Massachusetts also had a two-game winning streak ended with a 42-35 loss in Toledo.

The Minutemen looked like they had been gaining momentum - outscoring Kent State and Eastern Michigan 76-31 to erase a season-opening six-game losing skid - but ran into a powerhouse Rockets team that piled up 520 total yards, including 295 on the ground. Blake Frohnapfel did his part to keep the Minutemen in the game, passing for 438 yards and five touchdowns in defeat. Ball State has allowed 20 or more points in seven consecutive games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a 10 percent chance of rain and wind blowing to the southwest at 7 mph.

ABOUT BALL STATE (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Cardinals are led by running back Jahwan Edwards, who racked up 92 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against Northern Illinois and has reached the end zone seven times in his last five games. His continued excellence has helped overshadow a dreadful effort from quarterback Jack Milas, who has thrown for just 597 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three games. Milas is expected to remain the starter ahead of Ozzie Mann.

ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (2-7 SU, 7-2 ATS, 6-2-1 O/U): Frohnapfel has looked sensational over his past five games, throwing for more than 330 yards four times in that stretch while racking up 17 touchdown passes against six interceptions. Tajae Sharpe (63 receptions, 965 yards, five touchdowns) has been his target of choise, while Jean Sifrin (33 catches, 544 yards, five TDs) and Rodney Mills (26 catches, 368 yards, five TDs) have also been in the mix. The Minutemen average just 3.3 yards per carry and have only 12 rushing touchdowns on the season.

TRENDS:

* Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games against teams with losing road records.
* Massachusetts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-2 in the Cardinals' last nine games following a double-digit home loss.
* Over is 6-1-1 in the Minutemen's last eight games.



Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons (-13, 52.5)

The Kent State Golden Flashes don't have much left to play for - but they can make life difficult for at least one East Division contender as they tangle with the host Bowling Green Falcons in a Mid-American Conference showdown Wednesday night. Kent State is coming off back-to-back losses to Miami (Ohio) and Toledo, and is in danger of going winless in MAC competition. The Falcons lead the East and can clinch a spot in the MAC title game with a win.

The secret to Bowling Green's success so far this season has been the emergence of James Knapke as one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. Knapke has racked up 2,128 yards through the air and, while he struggled to get much going against Akron, he did manufacture a pivotal 10-yard scoring pass to Roger Lewis in the third quarter of the win. Kent State surrendered 422 total yards while committing three turnovers in last week's loss to Toledo.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing to the east at 10 mph.

ABOUT KENT STATE (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-5-1 O/U): It looked as if Golden Flashes quarterback Colin Reardon was starting to pull things together after he amassed 360 passing yards and three touchdowns in an Oct. 18 win over Army. But Reardon has struggled mightily in two games since, completing just 50 percent of his passes for a combined 297 yards and a pair of interceptions. Kent State's running game has been abysmal, averaging just 3.2 carries on 240 attempts with a paltry four touchdowns on the season.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Knapke will be looking to bounce back from a dismal showing in his previous home game, a 26-14 loss to Western Michigan in which he went 20-of-33 for 139 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. The possible loss of running back Travis Greene will hurt, but the Falcons will almost certainly lean on Fred Copped and Andre Givens in his absence. The duo combined for 214 rushing yards and a score last week after Greene went down with an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Kent State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games against teams with winning home records.
* Bowling Green is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 conference games.
* Under is 18-6 in the Falcons' last 24 home games against teams with losing road records.
* The Road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

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Bad Company - Week 12

November 11, 2014

Only four weeks remain in the college football regular season as plenty of teams are becoming bowl eligible by the week. However, a bunch of squads are looking ahead to the offseason and getting through the next month of play. We’ll take a look at the teams to fade on the college gridiron heading into Week 12.

Eastern Michigan (+25 ½) at Western Michigan – 2:00 PM EST

Western Michigan won just one game last season, but the Broncos are close to bowl eligibility with a 6-3 record while riding a four-game winning streak. The Broncos have been one of the best ATS teams in the country at 8-1 ATS, with the lone ATS defeat coming in the opener in late August at Purdue. Western hasn’t been a favorite of this size since 2012 against UMass, blowing out the Minutemen, 52-14 as 17-point favorites.

Eastern Michigan owns a 2-7 record this season, trying to avoid its fourth 2-10 mark since 2010. The Eagles have been up and down from an ATS perspective, posting a 3-2 ATS ledger the past five games, while covering twice as a road underdog of least 20 points this season. EMU has actually beaten Western Michigan in each of the past three meetings, including a 35-32 victory in overtime last season.

Indiana (+8) at Rutgers – 3:30 PM EST

The Hoosiers upset Missouri back in mid-September, but Indiana has struggled with key injuries since that road victory by going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS the past six games. Since quarterback Nate Sudfeld suffered a shoulder injury in October against Iowa, the Hoosiers have amassed just 34 points in three losses to Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State. Since the start of last season, IU has put up a 3-7-1 ATS record as an underdog, as the lone push came in last week’s six-point setback to Penn State.

Rutgers showed promise with a 5-1 start to the season, but enter Saturday’s play on a three-game losing streak following double-digit defeats to Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. The Scarlet Knights allowed 298 rushing yards to the Badgers, 292 rushing yards to the Cornhuskers, and 324 yards on the ground to the Buckeyes. Indiana has rushed for at least 153 yards in each of the past three losses, so we’ll see if the Hoosiers depend on the ground game to exploit Rutgers’ struggling defense.

Hawaii (+10 ½) at San Jose State – 4:30 PM EST

The Warriors have dropped six of their past seven games, while covering one time since the end of September. Hawaii looks to end a three-game skid after getting blown out at Colorado State as 21-point underdogs, 49-22, its fourth consecutive Mountain West defeat. Last season, Hawaii covered four of six times on the road. This season, the Warriors have limped to an 0-3-1 ATS record on the highway, while scoring more than 14 points on the road just once.

San Jose State is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, while allowing at least 38 points in each defeat during this stretch. The Spartans have covered in each of their two tries in the home favorite role, including a 33-10 blowout of UNLV as an 8 ½-point favorite. That is in stark contrast to the 2-7 ATS mark the Spartans owned as a home favorite from 2011-2013, but San Jose State has won each of the past two meetings against Hawaii since 2011.

Troy (+5 ½) at Idaho – 5:00 PM EST

This is no doubt the ugliest matchup of the weekend as these two Sun Belt foes have combined for a 3-16 record. Troy is actually coming off its second victory of the season, routing Georgia State, 45-21 as seven-point favorites, while rushing for 324 yards in the win. Both Troy and Idaho have a victory over a common opponent, beating New Mexico State. The Trojans are just 1-3 ATS this season off a cover, while being outgained in all seven losses.

Idaho has covered three straight games, but the last two ATS wins came as an underdog of at least 16 ½ points against Arkansas State and San Diego State. The Vandals have cashed in just three of their past 13 opportunities in the favorite role dating back to 2010, which includes the 29-17 win over New Mexico State last month. In their eight losses this season, Idaho has given up at least 34 points, while allowing this many points in 27 of their past 28 defeats.

SMU (+11) vs. South Florida – 8:00 PM EST

The usual suspect on this list every week seems to be SMU, who has yet to win a game in eight tries this season. The Mustangs managed a cover as 14-point underdogs at Tulsa in a 38-28 loss last week, marking just the second ATS win in eight opportunities. SMU has given up at least 38 points in each game this season, while busting the 10-point mark only twice, which came in the ATS covers against Tulsa and East Carolina.

USF is laying more than a field goal for only the second time this season, as the Bulls look to rebound off consecutive losses to Cincinnati and Houston. The Bulls are 4-2 ATS the past six contests, but have won just twice in six chances at Raymond James Stadium, which includes victories over UConn and FCS squad Western Carolina.

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ACC Report - Week 12

November 12, 2014


The ACC slate is rather intriguing this weekend. It all starts with Virginia Tech-Duke in Durham and Clemson-Georgia Tech in Atlanta during the early games, through the marquee matchup of Florida State-Miami which harkens back to the old days in the battered Orange Bowl in downtown Miami.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-5-1

Clemson 7-2 6-1 4-5 4-5

Duke 8-1 4-1 6-2-1 2-6

Florida State 9-0 6-0 2-7 4-5

Georgia Tech 8-2 5-2 6-4 6-4

Louisville 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 6-3 3-2 5-4 3-6

North Carolina 4-5 2-3 3-6 4-4

North Carolina State 5-5 1-5 5-5 4-5-1

Pittsburgh 4-5 2-3 3-5-1 4-4-1

Syracuse 3-7 1-5 4-6 2-7-1

Virginia 4-6 2-4 6-3-1 3-7

Virginia Tech 4-5 1-4 3-6 3-5

Wake Forest 2-7 0-5 5-4 2-7


Virginia Tech at Duke (ESPNU, 12:00p.m. ET)

Duke is back home looking to stay on track for their second straight Coastal Division title and appearance in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies head into this one going the wrong way, as they are 0-4 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning record, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven league games. Virginia Tech is also just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games. Duke is 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC tilts, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. In their past 23, they are 17-5-1 ATS and 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 at home. The home team has covered four of the past five in this series.

Clemson at Georgia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Clemson hits the road for Atlanta to go battle with Georgia Tech. While the Tigers are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against a team with a winning record, Clemson is 0-4 ATS in the past four ACC battles, and 0-4 ATS in the past four overall. For Georgia Tech, they are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC games. In this series, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four battles, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five. Clemson is also 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Atlanta. The trends for the total are conflicting. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings in Atlanta. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five for Clemson, and 11-4 in their past 15 road games against a team with a winning home record. But the over is 13-6 in Georgia Tech's past 19, and 8-3 in their past 11 following a straight up win of more than 20 points. However, the under is 9-4 in their past 13 after covering the week before, and the under is 19-9 in their past 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Pittsburgh at North Carolina (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

UNC returns home to face Pitt in a battle of 4-5 teams. The Tar Heels showed some signs of improvement on defense at Virginia Oct. 25, but they reverted back to their ugly ways by allowing 47 last time out in Miami Nov. 1. They have given up at least 27 points in all nine of their games this season. UNC is 3-1 ATS in the past four games, while Pitt is 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven after covering their first two outings of the season. The under is the trend lately despite the poor defensive numbers for UNC. The under is 4-1 in their past five home games, and 9-4 in their past 13 league games. For Pitt, the under is 5-1 in their past six after a bye, and 13-5-1 in their past 19 road outings. The under is also 5-1 in their past six against a team with a losing overall record.

Wake Forest at North Carolina State (ESPN3 3:00 p.m.)

Wake Forest is eliminated from bowl eligibility, while North Carolina State still has something to play for at 5-5. However, is N.C. State deserving of being a 15-point favorite? The Wolfpack is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games at home, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 league games. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games, and 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings with the Pack, while the Deacs are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. The home team has covered 15 of the past 18 meetings in the series. The under might be the best play. It has cashed in 22 of the past 28 overall, and 11 of the past 14 road games. The under is also 19-7 in the past 26 league games for the Deacs. The under is 4-0 in N.C. State's past four against a team with a losing record, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is also 13-6 in the past 19 at home for Dave Doeren's group.

Florida State at Miami-Florida (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

The Seminoles head to Miami Gardens as two-point favorites over in-state rivals Miami. There are plenty of people who think this might be the end of the road for FSU's unbeaten season, but can true freshman QB Brad Kaaya really outplay the defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston? While the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this season, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight. Overall, FSU has covered just one of the past five on the road, and two of their past 10 overall. For Miami, they have covered four in a row at home, and four of the past five overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning road record. However, they are a dismal 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall mark. The under has been the dominant trend in this series, going 6-2-1 in the past nine in Miami, and 9-4 in the past 13 overall. The under is 4-1 in Miami's past five, and 4-1 in their past five against a team with an overall winning mark. The under is also 5-0 in their past five league games, although 4-1 in their past five at home against a team with a winning road mark. The over is 4-0 in FSU's past four road outings, and 5-1 in their past six on the road against a team with a winning home mark.

BYE WEEKS
Boston College, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 12

November 12, 2014


There are just four games on the slate in the Pac-12 Conference, with the final bye weeks of the regular season. After this, it is a two-week run with a full slate of league teams in action. It all kicks off this week with Cal in the Coliseum against USC in a rare Thursday appearance for the Trojans. All of the other games have tremendous importance, too, especially the Arizona State-Oregon State game. AZ State is viewed as a team on the cusp of a berth in the four-team playoff, and they need to keep winning and hope someone stumbles along the way.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 7-2 4-2 3-6 3-6

Arizona State 8-1 5-1 5-4 4-5

California 5-4 3-4 6-3 6-3

Colorado 2-8 0-7 5-5 6-4

Oregon 9-1 6-1 6-4 6-3-1

Oregon State 4-5 1-5 2-7 5-3-1

Southern California 6-3 5-2 6-3 4-5

Stanford 5-4 3-3 4-5 2-6

UCLA 8-2 5-2 3-7 4-5-1

Utah 6-3 3-3 7-2 3-5-1

Washington 6-4 2-4 4-6 4-6

Washington State 3-7 2-5 4-6 5-5

California at Southern California (Thurs. - ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Cal hits the road looking for a signature win, and they should really turn some heads getting it done on national television against a decent SoCal team. The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games, but they're 8-18 ATS in their past 26 overall and 6-13 ATS in their past 19 against a team with a winning record. The Bears are also 6-15 ATS in their past 21 Pac-12 battles. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five at the Coliseum, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 league games. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall record. In this series, the favorite has cashed in each of the past five, and the Bears are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings. The road team is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 meetings. The under has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, while the under has gone 4-1 in the past five at the Coliseum.

Washington at Arizona (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Arizona heads into this one as a nine-point favorite, and that could climb if bettors go off the trends in this series. The favorite has covered in each of the past four meetings, and the home team is 6-0 ATS in the past six battles in this series. The Huskies are just 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games against a team with a winning home record, and they're 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. For Arizona, they're just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 Pac-12 battles, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four at home. The under has hit ine nine of the past 11 at home for the Wildcats, and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record. The under is 19-6-1 in the past 26 home games for Arizona against a team with a winning road mark.

Utah at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

Utah hit the road for Palo Alto looking to turn things around after a home loss to Oregon. And if they get near the end zone, you can bet everyone on the Utes will take the ball past the goal line. Utah is 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four one the road. They find themselves a 7.5-point underdog in this one. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record. For Stanford, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark.

Arizona State at Oregon State (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)

Arizona State heads to Corvallis as a nine-point favorite, looking to keep their playoff hopes on track. Reser Stadium has been a difficult place for AZ State over the years, though, as the Sun Devils are 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Corvallis, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five meetings overall against the Beavs. The underdog is also 4-1-1 ATS in their past six meetings, although the road team is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six. As far as series trends, over is 4-0 in the past four meetings at Oregon State, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. The under is 5-2 in Arizona State's past seven conference games, but 7-3 in their past 10 against a team with a losing overall record. The over has been the dominant trend for Oregon State, going 4-0-1 in their past five, including last weekend's stunning loss to Washington State. The over is 4-0-1 in their past five league games, and 12-5-1 in their past 18 overall against a team with an overall winning mark.

BYE WEEKS

Colorado, Oregon, UCLA, Washington State