The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.....

13) Lions 22, Falcons 21-- Long trip home for Atlanta, which led 21-0 al halftime. Word is NFL will have five of these London games next year; not fond of starting a game at 9:30am ET. Second week in row Lions won after being in hopeless situation, good for them. NFC South teams are putrid.

12) Vikings 19, Bucs 13 OT-- Minnesota tied game with FG at gun, then scored a defensive TD on first play of OT to snap 3-game losing streak and go home happy. Four of six Buc losses are by six or less points, with two of last three in OT- they scored 17 or less points in five of seven games. .

11) Patriots 51, Bears 23-- Brady was 30-35/354 with five TD passes; this game was 38-7 at the half. Going to be long bye week for the Bears, who visit Lambeau in first game after their bye- they've lost four of their last five games. Patriots are now 22-15 vs spread in last 37 games as a non-divisional home favorite.

10) Chiefs 34, Rams 7-- Rams' putrid lack of production from WRs is summed up by this stat; they're last in NFL, getting only 8 first downs vis penalty- DBs do not respect them enough to grab/hold/interfere with them. St Louis special teams won game last week; they were not good in this one, missing a chip shot FG when it was 7-7, giving up a 99-yard kick return when it was 10-7.

9) Seahawks 13, Panthers 9-- Seattle has come to Charlotte and won three years in row, by similar scores: 16-12/12-7/13-9. Rumors persist there are problems between QB Wilson and other Seahawks. Carolina is 1-4-1 after its 2-0 start.

8) Bills 43, Jets 23-- Jets were -6 in turnovers, lost for 7th game in row after being first 1-6 team EVER to be favored a team with a winning record. Bills threw for 217 yards despite throwing only 17 passes- they won field position by 30 yards.

7) Dolphins 27, Jaguars 13-- Jax rookie QB Bortles had three turnovers, giving him six in the past two weeks and 13 in six games. Four of those have been interceptions returned for touchdowns, two by Miami here. Dolphins are unspectacular but 4-3 and thats a hell of a lot better than last year's debacle.

6) Texans 30, Titans 16-- Tennessee RB Greene was arrested Friday after parking his BMW in a handicapped spot, then almost hitting a traffic cop as he left the scene. Distractions like this are almost always a red flag. go-against sign, especially for a team starting a QB for first time in NFL. No news is good news.

5) Bengals 27, Ravens 24-- Terrific game that turned many times, last of which was when refs called offensive interference on Steve Smith with 0:32 left, negating what would've been an 80-yard TD pass. Cincinnati sweeps the season series and now has tie-breakers over Baltimore.

4) Cardinals 24, Eagles 20-- Thing I like about Bruce Arians is that he blitzes the other QB when he is protecting a lead late in the game. Arizona had TD passes of 80-75 yards, Eagles had only a FG to show for three red zone drives, and also threw an INT in the end zone from the 25. Hard to win that way.

3) Steelers 51, Colts 34-- Big Ben is now 100-50 as an NFL starter after throwing for 522 yards as Pitt dismantled a Colt team that had won five in a row. Back when he was a HS junior, Ben sat behind the coach's son, who wound up playing WR at a Division III college. Coach must be a helluva guy.

2) Browns 23, Raiders 13-- Good sign for Cleveland fans, winning easily against an inferior opponent. Raiders have now lost 13 straight dating to last season. Oakland has dropped 16 games in a row played in Eastern time zone -- a streak that started in 2009. Browns are now 4-3, matching their win total of last season.

1) Saints 44, Packers 23-- Green Bay is 0-3 on artificial turf, Saints are 3-0 at home. Luck of the schedule whether you play New Orleans at home or in the Superdome. Rodgers dinged his hanstring in this game, but Pack has next week off, so he can get better before they play the Bears on Sunday night, November 9.

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NFL

Monday, October 27


Home teams come through for backers Sunday

It was a good week to back home teams against the spread in the NFL this Sunday.

Teams that enjoyed home cooking this week went 9-4 ATS, hitting over 69 percent of the time. The only home teams to not cover yesterday were Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and the New York Jets.

Home favorites fare even better going 5-5 ATS, good for a success rate of just over 71 percent.


Saints, Packers go over again

New Orleans bounced back with a big 44-23 win over Green Bay Sunday night in a game that went well of over the total making the Saints and Packers the best over plays this season.

The total closed at 55, but it was no match for the Saints and Packers. The Saints are now 6-1 over/under on the season, while the Packers are an NFL best 7-1 O/U and gone over the total in five straight games.


Rams left tackle Jake Long has torn his ACL again

The Rams weren’t necessarily expecting any good news, but that doesn’t mean they’re not disappointed. A league sources tells PFT that Long has indeed torn his ACL, which will cost him the rest of the season.


Griffin still could return on Sunday against Vikings

At one point, there was a report that Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III would return on Monday night against the Cowboys. The better view was, and had been, that Griffin will be back when Washington emerges from the bye week, at home against the Buccaneers.


Jets get blown out by Bills, are league's worst bet

Bringing in Percy Harvin wasn't enough to turn things around for the New York Jets this week, as they got stomped out 43-23 by Buffalo and are now the worst bet in the NFL.

The humiliating loss drops the Jets to 1-7 straight up and a league worst 1-6-1 against the spread this season.

It doesn't get any easier for the Jets in Week 9 as they travel to Kansas City, where they are already listed as double-digit rod dogs, currently at +10.

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MNF - Redskins at Cowboys

October 26, 2014

The expectations on the Cowboys this season weren’t high as many people didn’t have faith in a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league last year. Following a home blowout loss to San Francisco in the season opener, Dallas is riding a six-game winning streak and looks to keep up its momentum on Monday night against a struggling Washington squad.

The Cowboys (6-1) have leaned on their offense throughout this hot stretch, scoring at least 30 points in four of the six victories, including in a 31-21 home triumph over the Giants last Sunday. Dallas erased an early 14-7 deficit with three unanswered touchdowns, including a pair of touchdown tosses by Tony Romo. The Cowboys managed to cover as 4 ½-point favorites, while improving to 1-0 inside NFC East play.

The Redskins (2-5) scratched and clawed to their second win on the season by needing a late field goal to edge the Titans, 19-17. Washington failed to cash as six-point home favorites, both of its victories have come at FedEx Field against Tennessee and Jacksonville. Kai Forbath kicked four field goals in last week’s victory, including the game-winner from 22 yards out, while Colt McCoy looked sharp by going 11 of 12 with a 70-yard touchdown strike to Pierre Garcon.

McCoy is slated to start on Monday, but that isn’t an iron-clad guarantee, according to head coach Jay Gruden. If and when Robert Griffin III is healthy and ready to play, Gruden will start the ex-Baylor star at quarterback. However, Gruden will turn to another former Big 12 standout in McCoy, who is set to make his first start since back in 2011 as a member of the Browns.

Two years ago, Griffin led the Redskins to a season sweep of the Cowboys, as Washington went on to win the NFC East crown. Last season was a different story, as Dallas returned the favor and won both matchups against Washington, including a 31-16 home victory as 5 ½-point favorites. The Redskins outgained the Cowboys on the ground, 216-48, but found the end zone just once. Romo wasn’t sharp by throwing for 170 yards, but a 21-yard touchdown pass to Terrence Williams gave Dallas a 21-9 lead as the Cowboys never looked back.

In the second meeting at FedEx Field in Week 16, the Cowboys edged the Redskins, 24-23, but Washington covered as three-point home underdogs. Griffin was sidelined in this matchup, as Kirk Cousins guided the Washington offense to a 23-14 fourth quarter advantage. However, Dan Bailey drilled a 25-yard field goal with six minutes left, then Romo found DeMarco Murray for a 10-yard touchdown with a minute remaining to give Dallas the one-point triumph for their fourth win in their past six trips to Washington.

The miracle run of 2012 seems like a memory for Washington, as the Redskins finished that season at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the division. Since then, the Redskins have lost eight consecutive games against NFC East opponents, which includes defeats this season against the Eagles and Giants. As a road underdog, Washington has failed to cover seven of its past nine in this role, as the Redskins are 1-2 ATS this season with the lone ATS win at Philadelphia in Week 3 as four-point ‘dogs.

The Cowboys went through a stretch of being a nearly automatic fade as a home favorite, posting a dreadful 3-16 ATS when laying points in Arlington from 2010-12. Dallas has improved recently, even if it hasn’t resulted in major profits. Since 2013, Jason Garrett’s club is 4-4 ATS when laying points at AT&T Stadium, and 7-5 ATS overall at home in this span. Under Garrett, the Cowboys have compiled a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record at home off a home victory, which includes a non-cover in an overtime win over the Texans in Week 5.

Dallas is featured under the Monday night lights for the first time since 2012, but the Cowboys have struggled to cover the number in this spotlight. The Cowboys have failed to cash in seven of their past eight Monday contests since 2006, while putting up a 4-4 SU record in this span. At home against division foes in this stretch, Dallas is 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS, including an 18-16 squeaker against Washington in 2011 as three-point favorites, as the Cowboys kicked six field goals in the win.

Washington is playing on Monday for the second time this season, as the Redskins lost at home to the Seahawks in Week 5 as seven-point underdogs, 27-17. Since 2008, Washington has stunk it up on Mondays, going 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS, but the only road contest came at Dallas in the two-point loss back in 2011.

The ‘over’ run in primetime games has been unreal this season, going 19-4 through 23 night contests. Both teams are 4-3 to the ‘over’ this season with no significant home/road splits. Both meetings last season finished ‘under’ the total, but those games closed at 52 and 51 points. The Redskins and Cowboys each have played one game this season with a total above 50, as both teams went ‘over’ in those contests.

Dallas is listed as a 9 ½-point favorite at most spots with several 10’s out there. With the success of the Cowboys this season, expect the number to close in double-digits with public money coming in on Dallas. The total is set at 49 ½ as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

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'Boys look for 7th straight win

October 24, 2014


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-1)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -9.5, Total: 50

The sizzling-hot Cowboys aim for a seventh straight victory when they host the Redskins on Monday night.

Washington snapped a four-game losing skid last week when third-string QB Colt McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins and led his team to a 19-17 victory over the Titans in the nation's capital. Dallas beat the Giants 31-21 last week for its sixth straight victory (5-1 ATS).

When hosting the Redskins since 1992, the Cowboys are 18-4 SU (12-10 ATS). Last season Dallas won both games SU over Washington, but the teams split wins ATS.

This Cowboys defense has surprised plenty of people this season, as they’re allowing just 19.5 PPG over their past four contests and will be eager to put the pressure on McCoy.

Washington is 25-12 ATS in road games after having lost five or six of its previous seven games since 1992. However, the Redskins are also 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons.

Dallas, meanwhile, is 12-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years, but only 7-16 ATS when favored under head coach Jason Garrett.

Both teams will be missing key defensive players in this matchup, as Washington just placed LB Brian Orakpo (pectoral) on IR and lists CB Tracy Porter (hamstring) and LBs Akeem Jordan (knee) and Perry Riley (knee) as questionable. Dallas might not have the services of either LB Bruce Carter (quad) or CB Brandon Carr (hamstring), who are both questionable to play.

The Redskins wisely replaced ineffective QB Kirk Cousins (1,170 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) with Colt McCoy last week and McCoy was able to do exactly what the Redskins needed. He managed the game to perfection, completing 11-of-12 throws for 128 yards (10.9 YPA) and a touchdown, and led his team to a win, which is something Cousins wasn’t able to do in any of his previous four starts.

One thing McCoy won’t have to deal with in Washington is a lack of weapons, as he’ll be throwing the ball to both WRs DeSean Jackson (26 rec, 528 yards, 3 TD) and Pierre Garcon (35 rec, 396 yards, 3 TD). Jackson had just three catches for 49 yards last week, but in the previous two games, he had over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown in each. Garcon has had a touchdown in back-to-back games and is finally getting himself going after a slow start to the year.

One player the Redskins will really need to establish early is RB Alfred Morris (440 rush yards, 3 TD). Morris has really struggled recently, rushing for less than 55 yards in each of the past three games. He has not had 20 carries since Week 3, and Washington would be wise to change that.

The Redskins defense could have a lot of trouble with this potent Dallas offense. They’ve done well in preventing big yardage games from their opponents, but they’re allowing 31.2 PPG over their past five contests.

The Cowboys have won their past six games largely due to the dominant running of RB DeMarco Murray (187 carries, 913 yards and 7 TD, all NFL highs). Murray is the first player in league history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the first seven games of the season. He should be in for yet another big game against this miserable Redskins’ defense.

QB Tony Romo (1,789 rush yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has been great since his opening week disaster against the 49ers. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions since the start of Week 2. As long as he takes care of the football the way he has been, Dallas is going to be a contender in the NFC. He’ll continue looking for his go-to receiver in WR Dez Bryant (45 rec, 590 yards, 4 TD), who has seen 37 targets over the past three weeks. Last Sunday, Bryant had nine catches for 151 yards in the win over the Giants.

Defensively, the Cowboys have been way better than anybody expected. They’re allowing 230.4 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 113.4 rushing yards per game (16th in NFL). They’re not dominant in either facet, but they’re solid defending both the pass and the rush, and efficiency of the Dallas offense is the reason this defense ranks second in fewest time of possession (26:27). The Cowboys are allowing just 19.5 PPG over the past four contests.

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Betting Recap - Week 8

October 26, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-4

Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 7-6

Against the Spread 9-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 82-35-1

Against the Spread 62-53-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 59-49-1

Against the Spread 54-61-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 62-56


Biggest Favorite to Cash

The Broncos (-9) cruised past the Chargers on Thursday night to improve to 5-0 at home. Denver started the season at 0-3 ATS, but the Broncos have cashed in four consecutive games, while hitting the favorites/over combination each time during this stretch.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Carolina (+6) lost to Seattle at home for the third straight season, but the Panthers covered in a 13-9 loss. The Seahawks scored a late touchdown to take the four-point lead, just like last season on opening day when Seattle topped Carolina, 12-7.

Home Sweet Home

Home teams weren't great from a straight-up perspective, going 7-6, but the hosts posted a solid 9-4 ATS record. Among the home underdogs to cash, the Panthers, Bengals, Steelers, and Falcons. Atlanta (+3.5) was the home squad in London, but it will be a long flight back as the Falcons blew a 21-0 lead in a 22-21 loss to the Lions.

Several road favorites pulled off double-digit wins, as the Dolphins and Texans each dominated on the highway. Miami (-7) overcame a slow start in a 27-13 victory at Jacksonville, as the Dolphins won consecutive games for the first time this season (coincidentally, both on the highway). Houston (-3.5) seemed like the squarest play on the board, but the Texans bounced back from last Monday's loss at Pittsburgh to dominate Tennessee, 30-16.

Going For the Kill

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Both New England and Pittsburgh broke the 50-point mark in their home blowouts. The Patriots (-6) had no problems with the scuffling Bears, destroying Chicago, 51-23, while putting up 31 points in the second quarter alone. The Steelers (+4.5) didn't have a Monday night hangover, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards in a 51-34 rout of the Colts, who had never lost as a road favorite with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Wild in the Desert

The craziest finish of the day took place in Arizona, as the Cardinals and Eagles went back and forth in the second half. Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin for a 54-yard touchdown pass to give the Eagles a 17-14 lead in third quarter. After the two teams exchanged field goals, Carson Palmer connected with rookie John Brown on a 75-yard touchdown strike to put the Cardinals in front for good. The Eagles put together one final drive, but Foles couldn't bring home a win as Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 to improve to 6-1.

Somebody Had to Win

One week after blowing a late lead in a one-point loss at Buffalo, the Vikings traveled to Tampa Bay and built a 10-0 lead. The Buccaneers rallied for a 13-10 advantage in the fourth quarter, but rookie Teddy Bridgewater marched Minnesota down the field for the game-tying field goal to force overtime. Tampa Bay won the coin toss in overtime, but on the first play of scrimmage, the Bucs fumbled and Minnesota returned it for a touchdown for the 19-13 walk-off win. The Bucs fell to 1-6 on the season and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.

Hot and Not

New England has won four straight games, while covering three times in this stretch.

Since starting 0-2, the Chiefs are 4-1 in their previous five contests, as Kansas City owns a 5-2 ATS record this season.

Of course the Jets are on this list for not being hot. New York was pummeled by Buffalo at home, losing its seventh straight game, while going 0-4 ATS at Met Life Stadium.

Totals

The 'under' finished 7-6, including a 2-1 mark in the late kickoffs. Three teams scored at least 40 points, while just two clubs scored in single-digits..

Since beginning the season with four consecutive 'overs,' the Browns have hit the 'under' in three straight games.

The Ravens and Bengals seemed destined for an 'under' as Cincinnati led Baltimore at the half, 7-6 on a 44 total. But the two AFC North rivals exploded in the second half for a combined 38 points to easily sail 'over' the total, as Cincinnati pulled off the sweep of Baltimore, 27-24.

The 'over' continues to hit in primetime games, going 19-4 through 23 night contests, including in Denver's victory over San Diego last Thursday night.

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Monday, October 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -9 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Dallas - Over 48.5 500 BLOW OUT