The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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NFL

Sunday, October 26


Falcons-Lions love low totals

The Detroit Lions and the Atlanta Falcons face off across the pond in London in early NFL Week 8 action Saturday, and trends are showing the two clubs have a history of going below the total.

The Under is 5-1 in their last six meetings.

Atlanta is currently 3.5-point "home" dogs for the matchup. The total is sitting at 46.5.


Falcons having issues covering in recent games

The Atlanta Falcons have hit a rough patch for their spread backers, going 0-4 ATS in their last four contests.

The Falcons and the Detroit Lions will open Week 9's Sunday NFL action in London, England Sunday.

Detroit is presently 3.5-point "road" faves with a total of 46.5 for the affair.


Faves have been playing well in England

The Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 8 and though the line opened as the Falcons +3.5, bettors should make note as the fave has covered in six of the last seven games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the eighth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England and the second this season after the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins played there in Week 4. In fact, there are three games to be held on British soil this season with the Dallas Cowboys clashing with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov. 9 to mark the third.

There are a couple of trends through the first nine games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Falcons-Lions game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in six of the past seven matchups and is 6-3 overall in these games.


Windy conditions at MetLife Stadium Sunday

Wind will gust from sideline to sideline at MetLife Stadium as the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East matchup Sunday afternoon.

According to Wunderground.com, wind should blow around 14 mph throughout the course of the game.

Presently, the Jets are field goal-favorites and the total is 40.5.


Covers few and far between at home for Chiefs

There hasn't been any home field advantage for bettors backing the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium recently.

The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Alex Smith's crew host Austin Davis and the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

K.C. is currently listed as 7-point home faves with an O/U of 44 for the contest.


Trend shows Vikings struggling ATS vs. Tampa Bay

Minnesota and Tampa Bay will clash in Week 9 NFL action, and according to recent trends, the Vikings have historically been a poor spread play in those games.

The Vikes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus the Bucs.

The Buccaneers are currently 2.5-point home faves with an Over/Under of 42.5.


Bengals an awful bet since bye week

At 3-0 against the spread, the Cincinnati Bengals started the season as one of, if not, the best bets in the league. In Week 4, they had their bye week and since then they've poison at the betting window.

The Bengals have gone 0-3 both straight up and ATS since that bye week and are currently 1.5-point home underdogs with their AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens in town visiting The Jungle.

Cincy had covered 11-straight regular season football games on its home turf before that was ended by the Carolina Panthers in Week 6 in a 37-37 tie. The Bengals were 7-point home favorites.

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NFL roundup: Bucs sign McCoy to 7-year extension

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a seven-year contract extension Saturday.

The team announced that the deal makes McCoy the highest-paid defensive tackle in the NFL. According to reports, the deal is worth $98 million with $51.5 million guaranteed.

McCoy, 26, was in the final year of his contract. The new deal is through 2021.

"From the moment (coach) Lovie (Smith) and I arrived here, we knew it was vital for us to keep Gerald in Tampa Bay long term as one of the cornerstones of our franchise," general manager Jason Licht said in a statement. "With the backing of the Glazer family, we were able to accomplish that. On the field, Gerald is one of the best players in the National Football League, who has been extremely productive and will be for years to come."

The Bucs made McCoy the No. 3 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He has started all 56 games that he has played, earning trips to the Pro Bowl in each of the past two seasons. He also received first-team Associated Press All-Pro honors in 2013 when had career highs with 9.5 sacks, 50 tackles and four pass breakups.

---The Detroit Lions suspended defensive tackle C.J. Mosley and sent him home from London on Saturday, the day before they were to play the Atlanta Falcons at Wembley Stadium.

The Lions said Mosley has been suspended for two weeks for a violation of team rules and conduct detrimental to the team.

Detroit promoted safety Jerome Couplin from the practice squad to take Mosley's place.

As the third defensive tackle behind starters Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, Mosley has 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks this season.

---Tennessee Titans running back Shonn Greene was arrested Friday night on several driving violations.

Greene's charges included resisting a stop when approached by police in Franklin, Tenn.

Greene was also charged with a handicap parking violation, driving on a revoked/suspended license and reckless driving.

Greene reportedly parked in a handicap parking space, but went back into his car and sped off after being approached by an officer. He sped away again when police caught up with him.

According to The Tennessean, Franklin police got in touch with the Titans and arranged for Greene to turn himself in on Friday around 9 p.m. He posted a $2,000 bond and was released at 10:38 p.m.

---The Miami Dolphins activated pass rusher Dion Jordan for their game Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

To make room on the 53-man roster, the Dolphins waived wide receiver Damian Williams.

Jordan, the team's first-round pick in 2013, just finished serving a six-game suspension for violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

---San Diego Chargers have two injured cornerbacks in the aftermath of Thursday's 35-21 loss to the Denver Broncos.

Jahleel Addae has a concussion while rookie Jason Verrett has a shoulder injury.

Addae hit the turf after his first tackle of the game and appeared to go into convulsions after another hit in the third quarter. Addae, a second-year player, said after the game that he passed the NFL's concussion protocol. However, the team said late Friday that he was diagnosed with a concussion.

According to NFL.com, Verrett is scheduled to see a specialist next week to get a diagnosis on the shoulder.

---The San Francisco 49ers placed center Daniel Kilgore and cornerback Chris Cook on injured reserve and signed safety Bubba Ventrone to a one-year deal.

Kilgore, a fifth-round draft pick in 2011, has played in 40 NFL games over the past four seasons. All seven of his starts occurred this year. The 26-year-old played collegiately at Appalachian State.

Cook, 27, has three tackles and one pass breakup in six games this season. He also has two stops on special teams.

---The Seattle Seahawks placed fullback Derrick Coleman on injured reserve and signed wide receiver Phil Bates from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Coleman, who broke a foot during pregame warmups last Sunday, had season-ending surgery on Wednesday.

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Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 8 line moves

Week 8 of the NFL schedule sees the league return to London, England where the struggling Atlanta Falcons face the Detroit Lions in an especially early (9:30 am ET) game. But there a few others on the board that have seen some big line moves - including some heavy sharp action - leading into Sunday's action.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: -2.5, Move: Pick, Move +2

The Bengals have struggled mightily since their bye week (Week 4), posting an 0-3 record against the spread. Money has been on the Ravens since post adjusting the line 4.5 points at the time of publication. With the heavy movement and sharp action behind the Ravens, oddsmakers are quick to admit a wrong original number.

"We opened the Bengals a 2.5-point favorite at home versus the Ravens, and since hanging that line it’s been all Ravens money so far," Stewart tells Covers. We eventually went to pick’em and eventually making the Ravens a 1-point favorite. That really didn’t slow down the money and pushed this line out even further on the Ravens to -2 -115. Bottom line, our opening number was flat out wrong on the Bengals. With 70 percent of the action on the Ravens, it’s one of our bigger decisions going into tomorrow."


Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers - Open: +4.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +6

Carbon opened Seattle -4.5 being on the road for back-to-back weeks. The Seahawks often times looked flat at St. Louis one week ago, but bettors like them in this sport to bounce back somewhat convincingly. Stewart believes that sharp bettors may just come back to support the dog prior to kickoff.

We thought 4.5 points was enough to at least attract some action on the Panthers, but it really wasn’t as all the early money hammered a Seattle team off two-straight losses" Stewart says. "I expect the wiseguys to come in on the Panthers at some point as there’s tremendous value taking the points with this Panthers team. If we don’t see any wise guys support on the Panther’s, then we’ll tick this game up another ½ point but we won’t get to 7 and take a chance of getting middled or sided on the game."


Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints - Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: -1

Carbon opened this NFC matchup as a Pick in an attempt to gain some betting support on the road team. However, sharp action came in on the Saints at that Pick'em line and forced the book to adjust to -1 and, eventually, -1.5. But being the Packers, public money continues to flood in on them and force a move back to -1.

"This will be the biggest bet game of the weekend for us, so if the early public action is on the Packers that means all the late public action will be on them as well as all parlays," says Stewart. "So while we respect the sharp money, at this point the liability that is mounting on the Packers is very concerning at this point and I wouldn’t be surprised if we go back to a Pick."

As for the total here, it's the highest on the board Sunday but that hasn't stopped bettors. It's been well documented that the Over has been a cash cow for primetime matchups this season and even though the number opened at 55.5, it's moved up one point since post.

"The Saints' defense has been torched this season and while the Packers have improved, they’ve taken on some shaky offenses which has 'padded' their stats. While the primetime Over trend is an anomaly in my opinion, it’s still something we need to be aware of and consider because we know our betting public is doing the same."

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Gridiron Angles - Week 8

October 25, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 18-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) when one team is favored by at least three poins after beating a non-divisional opponent by 1-3 points last week, if they were not shutout in the 4th quarter.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-11 ATS (-13.68 ppg) since November 5, 1995 as a road dog the week after a game as a dog in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-14-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) past the season opener, when facing a team they lost to last meeting in a game where Calvin Johnson had at least seven catches.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-11 OU on the road after a win in which they rushed for a TD.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Toledo is 12-0-1 ATS (11.4 ppg) since September 13, 2008 when neither team is favored by 18+ points after a loss as a road dog.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Miami of Ohio is 0-12 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since 2006 as a home favorite after a game as an underdog where they threw for less than 390 yards.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Browns are 13-0 OU (13.3 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than 4.1 punts per game season-to-date.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Team coming off a regulation loss where they held the ball for at least 35:49. Active against NY Jets.

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Akron is 0-9 OU (-15.0 ppg) since October 2012 past week 2 of the season in games where they are not more than sixpoint dogs.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that allowed no more than 116 rushing yards on at least 42 rushing attempts last game are 74-102-3 ATS. Active against West Virginia and Stanford.

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Vegas Line Moves - Week 8

October 24, 2014

LAS VEGAS – It appears that the biggest NFL line move in Week 8 will come in an intriguing AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, two teams clearly heading in opposite directions. The public has stated their case during early betting action this week, backing the Ravens and making them small road favorites in this key divisional game after the Bengals had opened at -3.

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas waited longer than most others around town to swap the role of favorite from Cincinnati to Baltimore, with the line finally going the other direction on Friday. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there are a few factors going in favor of the Ravens, who will likely face a Bengals team without wide receiver A.J. Green due to a lingering toe injury that has forced him to miss the past two games. Green had six catches for 131 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown, in the first meeting at Baltimore in Week 1, resulting in a 23-16 Cincinnati victory as a 1-point road underdog.

“A.J. Green has been downgraded to doubtful, so I don’t expect him to play,” Avello said. “That’s only a piece of it because I think he was expected to be out. When they went up to New England, the offense looked awful. And then they play Carolina at home to a tie in a game they were supposed to win, their defense gave up a bunch. Then they go to Indianapolis, they get shut out.

“In the first three games, they were giving up about 10 points a game. In the last three games, they’re giving up about 35. So not only has the offense sputtered, but the defense has just collapsed. It’s just a move based on who’s playing well and who’s not. Baltimore’s playing as well as anybody in the NFL.”

Another solid line move involves the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who will be looking to avoid a three-game winning streak when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Seattle opened as a 4-point favorite at The Wynn and was up to -5.5 on Friday afternoon.

“Slight move, there’s some early money on them,” Avello said of the Seahawks. “It’s probably based on the team losing two in a row against a Carolina team that’s really hard to figure out. I thought this (Panthers) team was going to be a dead issue this year, then they came out of the box playing pretty good. At home, they’ve played pretty good football though.

“The question is, is Seattle going to rebound because they’re a good football team and just had a couple of poor weeks, or is this team not the same team as last year? I’ll tell you what, they’re putting themselves in a very difficult spot, you get a couple of games behind in that division, it might be hard to catch up.”

Sunday’s primetime matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers could be the most heavily bet game of Week 8, according to Avello. The Saints actually opened as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Packers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook before coming back at -2.5. At The Wynn, New Orleans opened -1 and has since moved to -2 with the total jumping from 54.5 to 55.5.

“That’s a difficult game because you’re playing one of the better teams in the NFL, and you haven’t showed well,” Avello said. “As far as New Orleans goes, luckily they’re in a division that they’re a game back, and they can get in (to first) with a win here and then beating Carolina.

“The team’s just having a rough go at it right now, losing close games too except the Dallas game, they kind of got buried. But all the other games were very, very close. The team didn’t lose a game at home last year, and so far this year they’re 2-0.”

During the Saints’ 10-game home winning streak, they are 8-1-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, Green Bay is just 1-7 straight-up and ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. While the side may be too tough to call in this one due to the current form of each team, Avello believes one trend will continue. The total has gone OVER in nine of the past 10 meetings, which are averaging 60 points per game.

“This total’s going to fly over,” he said. “There’s no way anybody’s going to bet this under.”

Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 8 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

251 LIONS 4 3.5 -0.5
252 FALCONS X X X

253 VIKINGS X X X
254 BUCCANEERS 2 2.5 0.5

255 BEARS X X X
256 PATRIOTS 7 6 -1

257 RAMS X X X
258 CHIEFS 6 7 1

259 SEAHAWKS 3.5 5 1.5
260 PANTHERS X X X

261 BILLS X X X
262 JETS 2.5 3 0.5

263 DOLPHINS 4.5 6 1.5
264 JAGUARS X X X

265 TEXANS 1 3 2
266 TITANS X X X

267 RAVENS X 1 X
268 BENGALS 3 X -4

269 EAGLES X X X
270 CARDINALS 2.5 2.5 0

271 COLTS 2.5 3 0.5
272 STEELERS X X X

273 RAIDERS X X X
274 BROWNS 7 6.5 -0.5

275 PACKERS 1.5 X -4
276 SAINTS X 2.5 X

277 REDSKINS X X X
278 COWBOYS 8 9.5 1.5

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SuperContest Picks - Week 8

October 25, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 8 Picks (# of Selections)

1) Indianapolis -3 (604)
2) Kansas City -6.5 (420)
3) Houston -2 (485)
4) Baltimore +1 (444)
5) New Orleans -1.5 (431)

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage

1 2-3 2-3 40%

2 3-2 5-5 50%

3 5-0 10-5 67%

4 3-2 13-7 65%

5 2-3 15-10 60%

6 2-3 17-13 57%

7 3-2 20-15 57%

8 - - -

9 - - -

10 - - -

11 - - -

12 - - -


13 - - -

14 - - -

15 - - -

16 - - -

17 - - -

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Total Talk - Week 8

October 25, 2014


Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record in Week 7 and those results included three ‘over’ tickets in the primetime games. Including the Denver-San Diego outcome from this past Thursday, we’ve had 25 games played under the lights and the ‘over’ has gone 21-4 (84%) in these contests. I asked the Westgate SuperBook Director Jay Kornegay about this current 'over' run and wanted to know if his Las Vegas based shop would adjust.

He answered, “It’s business as usual. We know the general public will be betting the over on these games. If the sharps bet it over, we might move it a little more aggressively knowing the public will also be on that same side.”

It’s more than likely that things will balance out in the second-half of the season. For those keeping track, the ‘over’ went 28-22 in 50 primetime games last season.

Through seven weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 56-50.

Back to London (*Early Game – 9:30 a.m. ET*)

In Week 4 of the regular season the Dolphins dropped the Raiders 38-14 from Wembley Stadium in London. The combined 52 points easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 41.

In that week’s installment of “Total Talk” we mentioned the current total trend in the NFL International Series and we’ll bring it to your attention again.

Including the Miami-Oakland outcome, the ‘over’ has now cashed in four consecutive games played from London.

NFL International Series History (2007-2014)
Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons -
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -


This Sunday, Detroit and Atlanta will play the second of three NFL games in London this season. The total on this game is hovering between 46 and 47 points and this looks like a pass for me. Atlanta’s offense is struggling lately and I can’t see them moving the ball consistently against Detroit’s defense. Despite facing the Falcons dismal defense (412 YPG, 28.4 PPG), the Lions attack is limited without the duties of WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush. Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight plus the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 for Detroit this season, which includes a 3-0 mark on the road.

Next Stop: New England

This particular segment has become increasingly popular and I’m more than glad to touch on the “Thursday Night Total” system on a weekly basis, especially when it wins.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 19-3-1 (86%) in these situations.

This week, the angle applies to the New England-Chicago matchup since the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 at home on Thursday in Week 7.

The number has already jumped from 49 to as high as 51 at some shops. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in their last four games and Chicago has been better on the road, averaging 26.5 PPG.

New England’s defense is banged up but the unit has been respectable (22 PPG) this season, especially against the pass (208 YPG). Chicago is 1-2 against the weaker trio of the AFC East this season and the defense has allowed 27, 19 and 23 points in those games. Stepping up in class would make you believe the Bears unit could be in trouble Sunday.

Keep in mind that this system will remain in Foxborough for Week 9 since the Broncos visit the Patriots and Denver just played this past Thursday at home.

National TV Matchup

The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two nationally televised games o Sunday, both involving the Cowboys.

Prior to these results, the ‘under’ had gone 5-0 in the late afternoon spot. This week’s national television game heads to Western Pennsylvania as the Steelers host the Colts on CBS. The total opened 48 ½ and is steadily creeping up.

Pittsburgh is a tough team to figure out, especially on offense. The Steelers put up 30 points last week in their win against the Texans but 14 of those points were gifted. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season, 3-0 at home.

Indianapolis is ranked first in total offense (452 YPG) and second in scoring (30.9 PPG) and those numbers improve on the road (464 YPG, 33.7 PPG). The Colts have gone 3-0 to the ‘over’ away from home and they face a Steelers defense that has surrendered 27, 27 and 23 points at home to quarterbacks named Hoyer, Glennon and Fitzpatrick.

Good Luck (pun intended) on Sunday!

Off the Bye

Teams off the bye have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in their games and the one observation I’m seeing is that the rest has helped the offensive units.

Last week, the New Orleans and Kansas City both scored 23 points and those results were on the road.

In Week 6, Miami (24) and Oakland (28) were productive off the bye.

Week 5 saw Cleveland (29), St. Louis (28), Arizona (20), Denver (41) Cincinnati (17) and Seattle (27) post quality efforts with rest.

Based on those numbers, we’ve seen teams off rest average 28.8 PPG this season. At home off rest, the number increases to 31 PPG.

This Sunday, we have two teams playing off rest, one at home and one on the road.

Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
Philadelphia at Arizona

Divisional Matchups

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: This is the lowest total (40) on the board and it’s not surprising. The Bills (19.3 PPG) and Jets (17.3 PPG) are ranked 27th and 28th in scoring and they both have Top 10 defensive units (YPG). Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in its first seven games and it’s also banged up offensively. The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: These teams met in Week 1 and the Bengals captured a 23-16 road win. The combined 37 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 43.5 but points were left off the board in this game. Cincinnati has scored 24, 33 and 37 at home this season, which isn’t a surprise. Last year, the Bengals averaged 31.6 PPG in nine games on their turf.

Houston at Tennessee: Oddsmakers sent out a total of 43.5 on this matchup and the number has dropped to 41.5. The Titans are starting rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, which could have you leaning ‘under’ in the spot. Especially when you realize Houston just faced Romo, Luck and Roethlisberger. Titans are 5-2 to the ‘under’ this season.

Washington at Dallas: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Green Bay at New Orleans: Highest total on the board (55) in Week 8 and it’s very hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot unless you’re going against the consensus. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 this season and that includes a run of four straight tickets. Green Bay has also covered all four games during the current run, which has crippled bookmakers. The Saints have also been a strong ‘over’ (5-1) team this season and it’s offensive tendencies at home cannot be ignored. The last three meetings between the pair have seen combined points of 80, 76 and most recently 55 in their 2012 encounter.

Washington at Dallas: This game opened at 51 and that number has dropped to 49 ½ as of Saturday, which doesn’t surprise me. Dallas has the firepower to light up the scoreboard but the same can’t be said for Washington, especially with Colt McCoy at QB. The Cowboys and Redskins have both seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season but this series has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three encounters. If you’re looking for a possible ‘over’ angle, you could point to Washington’s defense. The unit has allowed a combined 82 points (Eagles - 37, Giants - 45) in their first two matchups against NFC East squads.

Fearless Predictions

Week 7 didn’t go as planned and if it wasn’t for the gimmick teaser bet, it would’ve been dreadful. The deficit is $300 as we near the midway point of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-New England 50.5

Best Under: Miami-Jacksonville 42.5

Best Team Total: Over Tampa Bay 22.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over 41.5 Chicago-New England

Over 40 Indianapolis-Pittsburgh

Under 51.5 Miami-Jacksonville

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Week 8 Tip Sheet

October 25, 2014

Bears at Patriots (-6, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- This Chicago team is very hard to figure out, up one week and down the other. The bad Bears came out last Sunday in a 27-14 home loss to the Dolphins as three-point favorites. Chicago fell behind, 14-0 at halftime, as the Bears own a dreadful 0-3 record at Soldier Field this season.
-- The Patriots keep rolling along following their third straight win, holding off the Jets last Thursday night, 27-25. New England failed to cover for the second time as a home favorite this season, but the Pats have won five of its past six games since losing at Miami in the season opener.

Previous meeting: New England crushed Chicago at Soldier Field in 2010 by a 36-7 count as three-point road favorites. The Patriots blew the game open by putting up 26 second quarter points, while Tom Brady threw for 369 yards. The last time the Bears visited New England, the Patriots held off the Bears, 17-13 in 2006.

What to watch for: Chicago’s best efforts have been put together on the road this season, winning three of four games on the highway (3-1 ATS). The Bears are 3-1 to the ‘over’ away from the Windy City, while going 5-0 SU/ATS in its past five road games against the AFC. The Patriots have riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, while going 8-8 ATS since the start of 2012 as a home favorite of at least six points.

Seahawks (-5, 44 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Seahawks are in the midst of their first two-game losing streak since midway through the 2012 season after getting tripped up at St. Louis, 28-26 as 6 ½-point road favorites. The Seattle defense has allowed 58 points in the past two losses, but the Seahawks yielded just 275 yards to the Rams last Sunday.
-- The Panthers were blitzed out of the gate in a 38-17 drubbing at Green Bay, falling behind 21-0 after the first quarter. Carolina failed to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs, snapping a two-game ATS winning streak. The Panthers’ defense has allowed at least 37 points in four of the past five games, hitting the ‘over’ five straight times.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks topped the Panthers in last season’s opener, 12-7 at Bank of America Stadium. Russell Wilson found Jermaine Kearse on a 43-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter to give Seattle the win and cover as three-point favorites. Seattle has won in each of the past two visits to Charlotte, while limiting the Panthers to only 19 points in those contests.

What to watch for: In spite of last week’s defeat, Seattle owns an 8-4 ATS record in the past 12 opportunities as a road favorite (1-2 ATS this season). Since the start of last season, the Panthers have compiled a 9-2-1 ATS mark at home, but Carolina is 4-8 ATS as an underdog in this stretch.

Ravens (-2, 45 ½) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Ravens are quietly rolling atop the AFC North at 5-2, as Baltimore routed a beat-up Atlanta squad, 29-7 as seven-point home favorites. Baltimore has taken care of business against NFC foes, posting a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, while winning each of those games by at least 22 points apiece.
-- The Bengals aren’t falling apart at the seams, but the team that was once 3-0 has stumbled to an 0-2-1 record the past three weeks. Cincinnati was blanked at Indianapolis, 27-0, as the Bengals’ defense has allowed 107 points in the last three games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals took care of the Ravens in Baltimore to open the season, 23-16 as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati built a 15-0 halftime lead on five field goals, but the Ravens rallied for 16 unanswered points to take a one-point fourth quarter advantage. Andy Dalton connected with A.J. Green on a 77-yard touchdown pass to give Cincinnati the lead for good, snapping a four-game skid at Baltimore that dated back to 2009.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has won five of its past six home divisional matchups, while going 2-0 SU/ATS last season as a home underdog. The Ravens have dropped four of their last five road games within the AFC North, while playing at Cincinnati outside of Week 17 for the first time since 2010.

Eagles at Cardinals (-1 ½, 48) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Eagles rested comfortably after blowing out the Giants at home in Week 6 by a 27-0 count. Philadelphia improved to 4-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Eagles racked up 448 yards of offense to pick up their second divisional win of the season.
-- The Cardinals cruised past the Raiders as 3 ½-point road favorites, 24-13 to move to 5-1 on the season. Arizona has limited four of six opponents to 17 points or fewer, as the Cardinals have won five of their past seven games on the road dating back to last season.

Previous meeting: Philadelphia jumped out to a 24-7 advantage over Arizona last December, before the Cardinals eventually lost 24-21. The late rally helped out Arizona backers, as the Cardinals cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. Arizona owns a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark against Philadelphia in the past four matchups, which includes a home victory over the Eagles to win the NFC Championship in 2008.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have put together a 7-3 record on the road, including a Week 2 victory at Indianapolis as three-point ‘dogs. The Cardinals are 9-2 in the past 11 games at University of Phoenix Stadium, but are just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Colts (-3 ½, 49) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Colts started the season at 0-2, but Indianapolis has stormed back with five straight victories, including a 27-0 rout of Cincinnati. In all five of those wins, the Colts have covered each time, while scoring 27 points in six straight games. Since losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 of the 2013 season, the Colts are nearly automatic at home with a 9-2 record the past 11 games.
-- The Steelers erased an early 14-3 deficit against the Texans, scoring 21 points in the final two minutes of the half to knock off Houston, 30-23. Pittsburgh has now alternated wins and losses in its seven games this season, while going 1-2 ATS at Heinz Field.

Previous meeting: In the disastrous season of 2011 for Indianapolis, the Colts actually hung around with the Steelers as 10 ½-point home underdogs in a 23-20 loss. The Colts are making just their second visit to Heinz Field since 2003, knocking off the Steelers as short ‘dogs, 24-20 in 2008.

What to watch for: Indianapolis has been automatic as a road favorite since Andrew Luck took over in 2012, winning and covering all seven times in the role. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers own a 5-1 ATS record as a home underdog, while covering and winning against Detroit and Cincinnati last season.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Vikings, +2.5-- Tampa Bay is coming off a bye.

5) Chiefs, -6.5-- Won a big game in San Diego last week.

4) Saints, -1.5-- New Orleans is struggling, but they are 2-0 at home.

3) Ravens, +1-- No AJ Green for Cincy; Ravens out for revenge.

2) Texans, -2-- Rookie QB Mettenberger starting for Tennessee.

1) Colts, -3-- Pittsburgh has solid record as a home underdog.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 22-20

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

**********


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Summing up a sports Saturday.......

13) Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31-- #1-ranked Bulldogs got good challenge at improved Kentucky, which passed for 401 yards, but couldn't handle State's running game. Bulldogs ran for 324 yards, ran a squib kick back for clinching TD with 2:22 to play. No way is Mississippi State the best team in the country.

12) TCU 82, Texas Tech 27-- Tech beat the Horned Frogs the last two years; this is a league game, and TCU scored 82 points!!!! Frogs had 785 yards of offense. Here's a hint for Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury-- recruit defensive players. A lot of them.

11) Arizona State 24, Washington 10-- Game was 10-10 with 4:00 left, but ASU scored twice in last 3:00 to get on the plane happy- they're 4-0 on road. QB Kelly got knocked silly when he threw GW TD pass; Sun Devils got clinching pick-6 with 0:53 left- they host Utah, Notre Dame the next two Saturdays. .

10) Georgia Tech 56, Pitt 28-- Panthers lost five fumbles on their first 13 plays and trailed 28-0 5:16 into the game. No bueno, especially against a team that is content to run the ball for three hours. Tech ran the ball for 465 yards.

9) Michigan State 35, Michigan 11-- Another dismal day for Brady Hoke, whose players planted a stake on Spartan Stadium turf after running onto the field before the game. Michigan State players and their coaches noticed, so when Spartans scored a meaningless TD in game's last minute, that was why.

In case you wondering, the 17-point spread Michigan got in this game was the third-biggest Wolverines had ever gotten in a game-- ever. Michigan got 20+ points in a couple of games in 2008, against Penn State and Ohio State.

8) Nebraska 42, Rutgers 24-- This is my weekly plea for geographic sanity; why are these teams in the same league? Rutgers is in New Jersey, which is, according to Mapquest, 1,297 miles from Lincoln. Apparently TV money drives all this, but it baffles me how taking so many long road trips helps Rutgers win.

7) Giants 11, Royals 4-- KC led 4-2 in middle of 5th inning, but their bullpen got roughed up and World Series is now 2-2. Since 1982, when WS is tied 2-2, team that wins Game 5 has only won series four of 11 times.

6) Marshall 35, FAU 16-- Unbeaten Thundering Herd were down 16-14 at the half in this game, but held Owls scoreless in second half. There was a female official in this game; Maia Chaka, who Mike Pereira thinks will be in the NFL fairly soon.

Pereira is really, really good on TV; he works a lot of games in the studio and gives clear rules explanations for his opinions and he is usually right.

5) Utah 24, USC 21-- Trojans fell to 5-3 when Utah scored with 0:08 left to win; five of USC's eight games were decided by 6 or less points.

Unrelated weather note: It is 2am as I type this-- we just had a thunderstorm here in upstate NY, complete with a brief hailstorm. Weird for this time of year.

4) Kansas State 23, Texas 0-- Why did Texas fire Mack Brown? Longhorns hadn't been shut out since Oklahoma beat them 12-0 in 2004- they look terrible now.

3) UCLA 40, Colorado 37 OT-- Mark my words: two years from now, Colorado is going to be really good. Coach MacIntyre is building a solid program, it just takes lot of time to build a solid football program, unlike basketball.

2) Ohio State 31, Penn State 24 OT--Buckeyes were up 17-0 at half, but threw a pick-6 early in third quarter and wound up surviving in OT, in a game where neither side gained 300 yards. Penn State has now lost its last three games, scoring total of 36 points, not counting the OTs in this one.

1) LSU 10, Ole Miss 7-- This was a fierce throwback-type game where Tigers ran ball for 264 yards, but kept shooting itself in the foot, with a missed FG and couple fumbles in Ole Miss territory. LSU finally drove ball 95 yards on 13 plays to win on a TD with 5:07 left, then survived the Rebels' final drive.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Miles, whose mom Martha passed away Friday night, at age 92.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 26


C.J. Mosley sent home from London

On the eve of their game against the Atlanta Falcons in Wembley Stadium, the Detroit Lions have suspended defensive tackle C.J. Mosley and sent him home from England. The Lions announced Saturday that they have suspended Mosley for two weeks for an unspecified violation of team rules and conduct detrimental to the team.


Dolphins activate Jordan

The Miami Dolphins have activated pass rusher Dion Jordan for their game Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

To make room on the 53-man roster, the Dolphins waived wide receiver Damian Williams.

Jordan, the team's first-round pick in 2013, just finished serving a six-game suspension for violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

Jordan had two sacks as a rookie and now should get a chance to prove he can fit into Miami's 4-3 defensive scheme.

Without Jordan, the Dolphins have 17 sacks -- eight by Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.


Under the trend in AFC's all-Florida battle

The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Miami Dolphins from EverBank Field for the AFC's Florida bragging rights, but if there's a trend that sticks out when these teams meet, it's the Under.

The two teams have met six times since the Jags joined the league and the Under has gone 4-2, but has cashed in the last four games which these teams have squared off.

The last meeting was 2012 with the Dolphins prevailed 24-3 and the scoreline staying well under the closing total of 38.5.

Currently, the total is 42.5 after opening 43 or 43.5 depending on your book of choice. The highest total the two have seen was 43 in 2009 when the Dolphins won 14-10.


Indianapolis Colts are Sunday's top Consensus play

Seeing 72.48 percent of betting support, the Indianapolis Colts are the top play according to Consensus on Sunday's NFL board.

Not necessarily surprising as the Colts are the top team in the league against the spread. They've put together a 6-1 record against the spread and have covered five-straight since losing 30-27 to the Philadelphia Eagles as 3-point home faves.

Indy will look to make it six-straight at the betting window as it visits the Pittsburgh Steelers in late afternoon action Sunday. The Colts are presently 3.5-point road faves.

[StarDust Bum]

Rated Plays:

6 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 16 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

4 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS


Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Kansas City - Under 44.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston -3.5 500 BLOW OUT
Tennessee - Over 43 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tampa Bay - Over 43 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle -6 500 *****
Carolina - Over 45 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +2.5 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 44.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7 500 *****
Jacksonville - Under 42 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +5.5 500 *****
New England - Over 51.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
N.Y. Jets - Under 40 500




Philadelphia - 4:05 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 48 500

Oakland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +6.5 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 44 500 *****

Indianapolis - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh +4 500 BLOW OUT
Pittsburgh - Over 48.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAIL OUT PLAY


Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -2.5 500 BLOW OUT

New Orleans - Under 54.5 500 BLOW OUT

[StarDust Bum]

Rated Plays:

8 - 10.................................*****

6 - 6 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

12 - 19 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

7 - 4 ................................BLOW OUTS


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/26/14 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*600 Detail

10/20/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/19/14 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 52-*60-*2 46.43% -*7000

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 27

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Monday Night Football: Redskins at Cowboys
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 48.5)

A season-opening loss to San Francisco seems like a lifetime ago for the Dallas Cowboys, who will go for their seventh consecutive victory when they host the Washington Redskins on Monday night. The Cowboys have surged to the top of the NFC East behind an offense featuring DeMarco Murray, the first running back in league history to open a season with seven straight 100-yard games. Dallas has won seven of the last 10 versus Washington, including a season sweep a year ago.

The Redskins snapped a four-game skid last week when coach Jay Gruden benched quarterback Kirk Cousins in favor of third-stringer Colt McCoy, who is expected to make his first start since December 2011. However, Gruden employed some gamesmanship by refusing to rule out Robert Griffin III, who has been sidelined since suffering a dislocated ankle in Week 2. "Colt's the starter. We're preparing for Colt to be the starter," Gruden said. "But we're trying to get Robert some reps, get him ready."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Cowboys -8.5 and adjusted to -10. The total opened 49.5 and has dropped to 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Redskins - S Ryan Clark (Questionable, ankle), CB Tracy Porter (Questionable, hamstring), LB Perry Riley (Questionable, knee). Cowboys - CB Brandon Carr (Probable, hamstring), LB Bruce Carter (Questionable, quad), DE Tyrone Crawford (Out, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+3.75) + Cowboys (-2.25) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -9.0

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U): With Washington in dire need of a victory last week, Gruden made a surprise move by inserting McCoy, who wound up completing 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in his first action since attempting one pass last season as a member of the 49ers. While McCoy is keeping the seat warm until Griffin returns, a major concern is the running game. Alfred Morris, who rushed for nearly 2,900 yards in his first two seasons, has managed only 124 over the past three games while averaging a meager 2.8 yards per carry. Washington's defense, which ranks sixth with 321.9 yards allowed but has surrendered an average of 26.1 points, absorbed a big loss when linebacker Brian Orapko (torn pectoral) was lost for the season.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Murray rumbled for 128 yards and a touchdown in last week's 31-21 victory over the New York Giants to push his league-leading total to 913 while breaking Hall of Famer Jim Brown's record of six straight 100-yard outings to open a season. “I think we did this as a group, so it’s hard for me to accept this individually,” Murray said. “The offensive line is a huge part of this. ... I definitely give a lot of credit to those guys." Quarterback Tony Romo has multiple TDs in five straight games after throwing for 279 yards and three scores last week, with Dez Bryant hauling in nine balls for 151 yards. Dallas ranked last in total defense last season with an average of 415.3 yards but has cut that number to 343.9 through seven games.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last four vs. NFC.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 52 percent of wagers are backing the Dallas Cowboys.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 27


Cowboys struggling to cover in Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football has not been kind to Dallas Cowboys spread backers. The Cowboys are 0-4 in their last night Monday primetime games.

Colt McCoy will lead the Washington Redskins into AT&T Stadium Monday for a date with Tony Romo's crew.

Dallas is presently 10-point home favorites. The total for the game is sitting at 48.5.


Trend shows Cowboys going Over the total

The Dallas Cowboys have had no problem putting points on the board this season, and as a result, bettors banking on high totals are profiting.

The Over is 4-1 in Dallas' last five games. They'll host the Washington Redskins at "Jerry World" in Week 8 Monday Night Football.

The 'Boys are currently 10-point home faves with an O/U of 48.5.