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NFL

Week 8


Broncos jump to 8.5-point favorites overnight

Denver hosts San Diego in this week's edition of Thursday Night Football and there was quite a jump in the points spread overnight.

The Broncos opened as 7.5-point home favorites over the division rival Chargers, but the number jumped to -8.5 early Thursday morning.

Denver is 3-3 against the spread this season, while San Diego is 5-2 ATS.


Knee could sideline Texans' Cushing

Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing might sit out at least one game to rest an ailing knee, according to a report Wednesday.

The knee has bothered Cushing for the past two weeks and noticably affected him during the Texans' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.

Cushing tore the ACL in the same knee last year and has had it drained several times this season.

The Texans (3-4) face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and then play the Philadelphia Eagles before a bye week. There is a possibility that he might sit out the two games and return after the bye for a game against the Cleveland Browns.

In seven games this season, Cushing has 50 tackles and one sack.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday
Chargers (5-2) @ Broncos (5-1)—Battle for first place in AFC West; Denver is 5-1 in last six series games, beating San Diego 24-17 in playoffs here LY, after Bolts had won 27-20 in regular season. Chargers had 5-game win streak snapped by Chiefs Sunday; they’re 2-1 on road, losing by point at Arizona- their two losses are by total of four points. Denver is on serious roll, winning/covering all three games since their bye, scoring 38 ppg (13 TD’s on 36 drives); Broncos averaged 8.8/9.9/10.5 yards per pass attempt in last three home games- they’re 14-5 as home favorites in Manning era, 2-2 this year. Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-0 this year- they were dogs at Buffalo in Week 3. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 8-11 against spread. Last three Denver games went over total.

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NFL

Thursday, October 23

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Thursday Night Football: Chargers at Broncos
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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 51)

The new touchdown king of the NFL quarterbacks isn't getting much time to savor his record-breaking night, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos face a quick turnaround and a key division clash against the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. The Broncos are aiming for their fourth straight win after Manning passed for 318 yards and four TDs in a 42-17 win over San Francisco on Sunday night. Denver has a half-game cushion in the AFC West over San Diego, which had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 23-20 loss to Kansas City on Sunday.

Manning's 33rd game of four or more touchdowns gave him 510 career TD passes, moving him past Brett Favre (508) for the NFL's all-time lead. Both Manning (9-2) and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (4-1) have performed well on Thursday, though Rivers and San Diego outdueled Manning and the Broncos in a 27-20 victory on Thursday night last December. The teams have split their 10 meetings over the past five seasons, but the Broncos have won four of the past five.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Denver has opened as 7.5-point home faves with a total of 51.

INJURY REPORT: Chargers - RB Donald Brown (questionable, concussion), DB Brandon Flowers (questionable, concussion), CB Jason Verrett (questionable, shoulder). Broncos - RB Montee Ball (questionable, groin).

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north endzone at 3 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-3.25) + Broncos (-8.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -8.25

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (5-2 SU 5-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Rivers (1,961 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs) has put up huge numbers, but the offense stalled against the Chiefs with a season-low 251 total yards. The Chargers also had a tough time stopping the run, giving up a season-high 154 yards on the ground, but that's not likely to be a concern against Denver. San Diego ranks third in the NFL against the pass and has not allowed more than 300 passing yards yet this season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Even at age 38, Manning (1,848 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) boasts the top quarterback rating in the AFC, and the Broncos have put up 31 or more points in three straight games. Denver's receiving corps will test San Diego's strong pass defense, as four receivers have at least 17 receptions and at least one touchdown. The Broncos' defense has been somewhat susceptible to the pass but ranks third in the league against the run and hasn't allowed more than 62 rushing yards during the three-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October.
* Under is 4-0 in Broncos last four vs. AFC West.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, the Broncos have the slight edge at 50.34 percent.

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NFL

Thursday, October 23


Chargers have been money when facing Broncos

The San Diego Chargers have shown glimpses of being one of the top teams in the NFL and they will put that to the test against Denver. Even though it will be a tough task, the Chargers are money against the spread when they play the Broncos.

San Diego is 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 against the Broncos and 7-0-4 ATS when they travel to Mile High.

Chargers are currently 7.5-point dogs.

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Sharp Moves - Week 8

October 23, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #270) Arizona -2.5 – The oddsmakers are sort of insinuating here that the Cardinals and the Eagles are the same team, and we don't buy that. Philadelphia's 5-1 just doesn't look the same as Arizona's 5-1, especially when you consider the fact that the Eagles have gotten the job done with so many defensive and special teams touchdowns, while the Cards have gotten there by having to use QB Drew Stanton for a while instead of QB Carson Palmer. It's a bit concerning that the Eagles are coming off of their bye week, a situation they have been awfully good in over the course of the last several years, but the home field advantage for Arizona cannot be overlooked.

Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #272) Pittsburgh +3 – The Steelers are on a short week, and they didn't exactly look good against the Texans on Monday Night Football even though they did walk away with a big time win. The Colts meanwhile, are coming off of a dominating 27-0 win over the Bengals in which they put together one of the best complete performances we have seen this season out of any team. It's a nice spot for the hosts, though. Pittsburgh is always going to be a really tough place to play football. On top of that, keep a close eye on Mother Nature in this one. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the 40s at best, and they'll dip into the 30s with breezy winds all game long. With WR Reggie Wayne potentially missing out on this game, that could take away one major weapon for QB Andrew Luck. The way we see it, the Steelers will have every opportunity to win this game in spite of the fact that 80 percent of the general public just doesn't see it that way.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +3
Public Betting Percentage: 80% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #276) New Orleans -2 – There's every reason to believe that the Saints can win this game, not the least of which is the fact that they almost never lose at home and are probably playing to save their season. In fact, it looks a lot like the spot the Packers were in a few weeks ago when QB Aaron Rodgers was telling his fans to R-E-L-A-X. TE Jimmy Graham returned to the lineup last week, and though he was completely ineffective, he should be in a lot better spot to produce here against a Packers “D” that has its warts. QB Drew Brees is under the gun here, and the fact that there's a real possibility that he will come into this game as an underdog is shocking to us.

Opening Line: New Orleans -2
Current Line: New Orleans -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 82% on Green Bay

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Chargers at Broncos
October 22, 2014
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

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Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers is on fire in the NFL! He is coming off a 5-1 Week 7 and is hitting 57% on the season. His guaranteed winner for tonight can be purchased at VegasInsider.com. Click to win!

The top two teams in the AFC West face off in Denver on Thursday night in a key divisional showdown for the upper-hand halfway through the season. The Chargers invade Sports Authority Field just one half-game behind the Broncos in their first meeting since Denver bounced San Diego from the playoffs last January.

Before we look back at that divisional playoff contest, the Broncos (5-1) are still riding a high after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s all-time touchdown record in a 42-17 rout of the 49ers. Denver easily cashed as 6 ½-point favorites to improve to 4-0 at home, which includes three victories over playoff teams from last season (Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Francisco). Manning tosses four touchdown passes, marking the fifth time this season the Denver quarterback has thrown at least three touchdowns in a game.

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The Chargers (5-2) were tripped up at home by the Chiefs last Sunday as San Diego’s five-game winning streak got snapped. In spite of that hot stretch, money initially came in on Kansas City, who opened as five-point underdogs, as that number dropped to three by kickoff. The Chargers led, 14-10 at halftime, but the Chiefs ran off 10 unanswered points in the third quarter to grab a 20-14 advantage. After the Lightning Bolts tied the game at 20-20, the Chiefs took the lead for good with a 48-yard field goal in the final minute to knock off San Diego, 23-20. The loss ended a six-game home winning streak over the Chiefs that dated back to 2008.

These division rivals met up three times last season, as the Broncos took two of the three matchups. In the regular season, Denver jumped out to a 28-6 lead at Qualcomm Stadium in November 2013, before the Chargers rallied late with a couple of touchdowns. The Broncos held on for a 28-20 triumph to cover as seven-point favorites, as Manning torched the Chargers’ secondary for four touchdowns. The Chargers avenged that home loss one month later as 10-point road underdogs in a 27-20 upset at Sports Authority Field. San Diego held the ball for nearly 39 minutes, while limiting the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing.

Denver and San Diego would lock horns again in the divisional playoff round after the Chargers knocked out the Bengals in the Wild Card round. The Broncos held off the Chargers, 24-17 to advance to the AFC Title game, as Denver built a 24-7 fourth quarter edge. San Diego scored 10 late points to cash as 8-point underdogs, finishing last season at 5-1-1 ATS in the road ‘dog role. All three meetings finished ‘under’ the total, but all three totals were totally inflated at 56, 56 ½, and 55.

This season, Mike McCoy’s squad owns a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as an underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time since Week 3 at Buffalo. Prior to the Kansas City loss, the Chargers cleaned up on plenty of garbage, beating the Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders in three consecutive weeks, as those clubs have combined for just two wins this season.

Denver is riding a three-game ‘over’ streak, while finishing ‘over’ the total in three of four home contests this season. Thursday’s contest will be just the second time that John Fox’s team has a total above 50, as the season opener against the Colts barely went ‘over’ 53 as the Broncos won, 31-24. Denver has gone ‘under’ the total in five of the past six games dating back to last season with a total of 50 or higher.

Since Manning arrived in Denver in 2012, the Broncos have won 13 of 14 games against division foes, while posting an 8-5-1 ATS record. The Chargers have put together a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS record on the road within the AFC West since 2010, including an impressive 6-0 ATS mark as an underdog.

The ‘over’ continues to be on fire in primetime action, hitting in 18 of 22 games this season. This is by far the best Thursday night matchup as plenty of these games have been disappointing, as favorites have posted a 5-2 SU/ATS record in these contests, while the home clubs own the same 5-2 SU/ATS mark.

The Broncos are listed as eight-point home favorites, while that number continues to creep up after opening up at seven on Sunday night. The total sits at 51 ½, the highest total on a Thursday night game this season. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

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'Boys look for 7th straight win

October 24, 2014


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-1)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -9.5, Total: 50

The sizzling-hot Cowboys aim for a seventh straight victory when they host the Redskins on Monday night.

Washington snapped a four-game losing skid last week when third-string QB Colt McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins and led his team to a 19-17 victory over the Titans in the nation's capital. Dallas beat the Giants 31-21 last week for its sixth straight victory (5-1 ATS).

When hosting the Redskins since 1992, the Cowboys are 18-4 SU (12-10 ATS). Last season Dallas won both games SU over Washington, but the teams split wins ATS.

This Cowboys defense has surprised plenty of people this season, as they’re allowing just 19.5 PPG over their past four contests and will be eager to put the pressure on McCoy.

Washington is 25-12 ATS in road games after having lost five or six of its previous seven games since 1992. However, the Redskins are also 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons.

Dallas, meanwhile, is 12-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years, but only 7-16 ATS when favored under head coach Jason Garrett.

Both teams will be missing key defensive players in this matchup, as Washington just placed LB Brian Orakpo (pectoral) on IR and lists CB Tracy Porter (hamstring) and LBs Akeem Jordan (knee) and Perry Riley (knee) as questionable. Dallas might not have the services of either LB Bruce Carter (quad) or CB Brandon Carr (hamstring), who are both questionable to play.

The Redskins wisely replaced ineffective QB Kirk Cousins (1,170 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) with Colt McCoy last week and McCoy was able to do exactly what the Redskins needed. He managed the game to perfection, completing 11-of-12 throws for 128 yards (10.9 YPA) and a touchdown, and led his team to a win, which is something Cousins wasn’t able to do in any of his previous four starts.

One thing McCoy won’t have to deal with in Washington is a lack of weapons, as he’ll be throwing the ball to both WRs DeSean Jackson (26 rec, 528 yards, 3 TD) and Pierre Garcon (35 rec, 396 yards, 3 TD). Jackson had just three catches for 49 yards last week, but in the previous two games, he had over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown in each. Garcon has had a touchdown in back-to-back games and is finally getting himself going after a slow start to the year.

One player the Redskins will really need to establish early is RB Alfred Morris (440 rush yards, 3 TD). Morris has really struggled recently, rushing for less than 55 yards in each of the past three games. He has not had 20 carries since Week 3, and Washington would be wise to change that.

The Redskins defense could have a lot of trouble with this potent Dallas offense. They’ve done well in preventing big yardage games from their opponents, but they’re allowing 31.2 PPG over their past five contests.

The Cowboys have won their past six games largely due to the dominant running of RB DeMarco Murray (187 carries, 913 yards and 7 TD, all NFL highs). Murray is the first player in league history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the first seven games of the season. He should be in for yet another big game against this miserable Redskins’ defense.

QB Tony Romo (1,789 rush yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has been great since his opening week disaster against the 49ers. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions since the start of Week 2. As long as he takes care of the football the way he has been, Dallas is going to be a contender in the NFC. He’ll continue looking for his go-to receiver in WR Dez Bryant (45 rec, 590 yards, 4 TD), who has seen 37 targets over the past three weeks. Last Sunday, Bryant had nine catches for 151 yards in the win over the Giants.

Defensively, the Cowboys have been way better than anybody expected. They’re allowing 230.4 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 113.4 rushing yards per game (16th in NFL). They’re not dominant in either facet, but they’re solid defending both the pass and the rush, and efficiency of the Dallas offense is the reason this defense ranks second in fewest time of possession (26:27). The Cowboys are allowing just 19.5 PPG over the past four contests.

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Titans' Mettenberger will start at QB

October 23, 2014



NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - The Tennessee Titans will start rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback against the Houston Texans on Sunday, switching away from Jake Locker who has missed three of the past four games with injuries.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said Thursday that the decision to go with Mettenberger was made Tuesday and feels this is an opportunity to see what the sixth-round draft pick out of LSU can do.

The Titans had stuck with Locker, the eighth pick overall in 2011, since hiring Whisenhunt in January. But Locker has missed 17 of a possible 39 starts and finished only three games this season because of injuries.

Mettenberger will become the fourth rookie quarterback to start this season , the third quarterback for Whisenhunt.

Mettenberger dropped to the sixth round after tearing his left ACL on Nov. 29 playing for LSU but led the NFL this preseason with 659 yards passing.

Whisenhunt had promised he would be more patient with quarterbacks in his second time around as an NFL coach. He reached the 2009 Super Bowl in Arizona with Kurt Warner, but the coach cycled through quarterbacks after the veteran left. Whisenhunt started Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and finally Brian Hoyer in his final season in 2012.

Once in Tennessee, he inherited Locker who was coming off a Lisfranc injury to his right foot that cost him the final seven games of the 2013 season. The Titans did not pick up Locker's option for 2015 in May, even as they stood behind him as their starter.

But Locker hurt his right wrist in a loss at Cincinnati on Sept. 21. He missed a loss at Indianapolis and then started Oct. 5 against Cleveland where he threw for a touchdown and ran for another TD before hurting his right thumb on a helmet. Charlie Whitehurst, now in his ninth season, started three of the past four games with the Titans losing two of those. They failed to hold a late lead last week in losing 19-17 at Washington.

Fans have been clamoring to see Mettenberger with the Titans losing five of their last six. This franchise also needs to give people a reason to use their tickets and come to the stadium where they have won only two of their last nine home games.

Mettenberger fits the profile of the quarterback Whisenhunt has had the most success with in Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh. Mettenberger is 6-foot-5 and 224 pounds who can stand in the pocket, and he has a strong arm throwing for 3,082 yards last season at LSU. With Locker's injured thumb, Mettenberger also had taken some practice work with the starters over the past two weeks.

He will be the first rookie this franchise has started since 2010 when Rusty Smith started at Houston when Vince Young had just been placed on injured reserve and veteran Kerry Collins was hurt. Smith lost 20-0.

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Sharp Moves - Week 8

October 23, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #270) Arizona -2.5 – The oddsmakers are sort of insinuating here that the Cardinals and the Eagles are the same team, and we don't buy that. Philadelphia's 5-1 just doesn't look the same as Arizona's 5-1, especially when you consider the fact that the Eagles have gotten the job done with so many defensive and special teams touchdowns, while the Cards have gotten there by having to use QB Drew Stanton for a while instead of QB Carson Palmer. It's a bit concerning that the Eagles are coming off of their bye week, a situation they have been awfully good in over the course of the last several years, but the home field advantage for Arizona cannot be overlooked.

Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #272) Pittsburgh +3 – The Steelers are on a short week, and they didn't exactly look good against the Texans on Monday Night Football even though they did walk away with a big time win. The Colts meanwhile, are coming off of a dominating 27-0 win over the Bengals in which they put together one of the best complete performances we have seen this season out of any team. It's a nice spot for the hosts, though. Pittsburgh is always going to be a really tough place to play football. On top of that, keep a close eye on Mother Nature in this one. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the 40s at best, and they'll dip into the 30s with breezy winds all game long. With WR Reggie Wayne potentially missing out on this game, that could take away one major weapon for QB Andrew Luck. The way we see it, the Steelers will have every opportunity to win this game in spite of the fact that 80 percent of the general public just doesn't see it that way.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +3
Public Betting Percentage: 80% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #276) New Orleans -2 – There's every reason to believe that the Saints can win this game, not the least of which is the fact that they almost never lose at home and are probably playing to save their season. In fact, it looks a lot like the spot the Packers were in a few weeks ago when QB Aaron Rodgers was telling his fans to R-E-L-A-X. TE Jimmy Graham returned to the lineup last week, and though he was completely ineffective, he should be in a lot better spot to produce here against a Packers “D” that has its warts. QB Drew Brees is under the gun here, and the fact that there's a real possibility that he will come into this game as an underdog is shocking to us.

Opening Line: New Orleans -2
Current Line: New Orleans -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 82% on Green Bay

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Sunday's Top Action

October 24, 2014


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-2) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-3)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

The sizzling-hot Colts seek a sixth straight victory when they visit the up-and-down Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

While Indianapolis stretched its winning streak to five games (SU and ATS) with a 27-0 victory at home against the Bengals last week, Pittsburgh continued its pattern of alternating wins and losses with a 30-23 home victory versus the Texans.

Since 1992, the Steelers are 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) in this series, including 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) when hosting the Colts. Five of these seven games played in Pittsburgh have gone Over the total. The most recent matchup between these two teams was a 23-20 Steelers’ road victory on September 25, 2011. Pittsburgh was a 10.5-point favorite in that game.

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS versus teams that rush for at least 4.5 yards per carry over the past three seasons, and is also 13-4 ATS when playing teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play in that time. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 20-7 ATS versus teams that pass for at least 7.5 yards per attempt since 1992.

WR Reggine Wayne (elbow) is expected to mis this game for Indianapolis. RB Trent Richardson (hamstring) and Arthur Jones (ankle) are questionable for the Colts, while the Steelers have three key defenders listed as questionable in LB Ryan Shazier (knee), S Shamarko Thomas (hamstring) and NT Steve McLendon (shoulder).

The Colts put on a dominant display last week, beating the Bengals 27-0 in a game that their defense was just relentless. They lost the turnover battle in the game, giving up two fumbles with zero takeaways. Even with that, Indy still got the shutout against a solid Bengals offense, holding its opponent to 1-of-13 on third-down conversions.

QB Andrew Luck (2,331 pass yards, 19 TD, 7 INT) has arguably been the league’s best quarterback this season and he should be in for a big game against the Steelers. This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, and Luck will have no problem moving the ball for his offense.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (336 rush yards, 1 TD) should be in for an expanded role in this game, as RB Trent Richardson (358 rush yards, 2 TD) is dealing with a hamstring injury. Bradshaw has been one of Luck’s most productive red-zone options, catching six touchdowns on the year despite his small size. WR T.Y. Hilton (47 rec, 711 yards, 1 TD) has been on a tear recently, as he's caught 16 passes for 330 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. He has not had a game with less than 80 receiving yards over the past five weeks.

Pittsburgh is coming off of a solid performance against the Texans, winning 30-23 after trailing 13-0 in the first half.

One issue the Steelers are going to have is defending this Colts team. Pittsburgh has allowed 27.0 PPG over the past two games, and it is a middling defense, allowing 230.9 passing yards per game (13th in NFL) and 114.1 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). The Colts have a balanced attack and could give this Steelers unit a lot of trouble.

Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger (1,858 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) will need to come to play. He was good in the win over the Texans, outside of one lost fumble, throwing for 265 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the game. He’ll look to his go-to-guy WR Antonio Brown (50 rec, 719 yards, 5 TD) early and often.

This game could, however, come down to how effective RB Le’Veon Bell (599 rush yards, 1 TD) is running the football. Bell was explosive in the win over the Texans, catching eight passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. He had 57 yards rushing on 12 carries. Bell’s ability to run the football will open things up for Roethlisberger to pass, but it will be tough for him to get it going between the tackles against a good Colts defense.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-3-1)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -5, Total: 45

Two teams desperate for a victory will collide on Sunday as the Seahawks head east to take on the Panthers.

Seattle is mired in a two-game losing skid, leaving St. Louis with a disastrous 28-26 loss last week. Carolina was even worse last week, getting blown out 38-17 in Green Bay to fall to 1-3-1 SU in the past five contests.

These teams are meeting for the third straight season with the Seahawks winning and covering in both of the previous defensive battles in Charlotte, prevailing by scores of 16-12 and 12-7.

Panthers QB Cam Newton had a lot of difficulty throwing against the Packers last game, completing only 54.8% of his passes with just one touchdown and an interception. He could have a lot more trouble going up against the Seahawks. Seattle happens to be 15-3 ATS after gaining six or more yards per play in its previous game over the past three seasons, but Carolina is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the past two years. QB Russell Wilson is 2-0 (SU and ATS) versus the Panthers in his career.

The potential absences of Seahawks CB Byron Maxwell (calf) and S Kam Chancellor (ankle) would certainly help Newton if they don’t end up playing on Sunday, but Carolina has a larger volume of injuries with RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) out, and LB Chase Blackburn (knee), LB Jason Williams (hip), G Trai Turner (knee), RB Fozzy Whittaker (thigh) and CB Bene Benwikere (ankle) among those listed as questionable.

The Seahawks have slipped as of late, losing two straight games SU and ATS. QB Russell Wilson (1,291 pass yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) played one of the better games of his career in last week’s loss to the Rams, throwing for 313 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Wilson also rushed seven times for 106 yards and a touchdown in the game, making him the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 100+ yards and throw for 300+ in the same game.

Wilson now gets to face a secondary that allowed Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to throw for 255 yards and three touchdowns without even breaking a sweat. This same Carolina defense is also allowing 137.6 rushing yards per game (26th in NFL), so this could be a big afternoon for RB Marshawn Lynch (420 rush yards, 3 TD). Lynch rushed just 18 times for 53 yards in the loss to the Rams, so the Seahawks could make more of an effort to pound the rock in this one.

In the first game the Seahawks played since trading WR Percy Harvin, WR Doug Baldwin (23 rec, 310 yards, 1 TD) caught seven passes for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Baldwin should be in for a huge game against this porous defense. Seattle’s defense, meanwhile, allows only 238.5 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 85.5 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). They have, however, allowed 29.0 PPG over their past two contests.

The Panthers didn’t stand a chance in Green Bay as they were getting dominated from the opening kickoff. Their defense was unable to get any big stops, allowing four touchdowns to the Packers in the first half alone. They’ll need to turn around quickly and prepare for the dual-threat attack of QB Russell Wilson. This defense has struggled against both the pass and rush on the year, and now faces a quarterback who can shred them doing both.

QB Cam Newton (1,472 pass yards, 8 TD, 3 INT) is also a great dual-threat quarterback, but he has been miserable against the Seahawks in his career, throwing for an average of 133.0 yards per game with just one touchdown total in two losses. When he does throw on Sunday, he’ll be looking for his dangerous duo of TE Greg Olsen (41 rec, 493 yards, 5 TD) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (34 rec, 477 yards, 5 TD). Olsen caught all eight of his targets for 105 yards in the loss to the Packers. He’s been getting open frequently this season and has emerged as one of the top tight ends in the entire NFL. Benjamin had missed a lot of practice during the week and still caught three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He should be feeling much better heading into this meeting with the Seahawks.

Carolina’s running back situation has been an issue on the season, so they are eagerly awaiting the return of DeAngelo Williams (ankle), which is not going to happen until next week at the earliest.

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SNF - Packers at Saints

October 24, 2014


GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-2) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New Orleans -1.5, Total: 55.5

The Saints look to get back on track Sunday night when they host the surging Packers.

Green Bay ripped off its fourth straight win (SU and ATS) when it cruised to a 38-17 victory over the Panthers at home last week. Meanwhile, New Orleans allowed two touchdowns in the final 3:38 of the fourth quarter last Sunday to lose 24-23 to the Lions.

These teams last met on Sept. 30, 2012, when the Packers beat the Saints 28-27 as 7.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field. These teams have split wins SU and ATS when playing in New Orleans since 1992, and overall, the Packers are 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in this series during that span. Seven of those eight meetings have gone Over the total.

Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in October games over the past two seasons, but New Orleans is 6-1 ATS after a loss by six points or less and 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons.

The Packers could be short-handed in the secondary for this game with CB Sam Shields (knee) and S Morgan Burnett (calf) both listed as questionable. The Saints are more concerned about the health of some offensive stars. TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) has been limited in practice and remains questionable for Sunday night, while RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out 2-to-3 weeks and RB Khiry Robinson is dealing with a forearm injury.

Green Bay has been on a roll recently, winning four straight games and five of its past six contests. QB Aaron Rodgers (1,674 pass yards, 18 TD, 1 INT) is looking like a serious MVP candidate at this point in the season. He’ll now get to face a secondary that has really struggled this year.

New Orleans is allowing 270.5 yards per game through the air (28th in NFL) and things won’t suddenly get easier for them with Rodgers in town. He will frequently be looking for top WRs Jordy Nelson (47 rec, 712 yards, 6 TD) and Randall Cobb (35 rec, 452 yards, 8 TD) in this game. Both of these receivers have caught at least one touchdown in each of the past four games.

One good sign for the Packers is that RB Eddie Lacy (369 rush yards, 4 TD) is starting to turn his season around. After failing to find the end zone in the first three games of the year, Lacy has now scored four touchdowns over the past four games. They’ll need him to be effective going forward in order to open the field more for Rodgers.

This Green Bay defense is allowing only 214.9 passing yards per game (6th in NFL) but has surrendered a miserable 147.9 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL). As long as the Pack is able to slow down Drew Brees, they should have a chance.

Saints QB Drew Brees (1,916 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT) seemingly had his team in a can’t-lose situation last Sunday, but a late interception allowed the Lions to steal a win. Brees now faces the Packers in a must-win matchup on Sunday, but he’s been very good against Green Bay in his career individually. In five games against the Packers, Brees has thrown for 380.8 passing YPG, 14 TD and just 2 INT.

He’ll look to target TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) often, but the All-Pro tight end was dealing with a lot of shoulder pain in last week’s loss to the Lions. If Graham isn’t feeling healthy enough to contribute, WR Marques Colston (21 rec, 359 yards, 1 TD) will be the beneficiary. Last game, Colston hauled in six of his 11 targets for a total of 111 yards. He has now been targeted 27 times over the past three weeks.

RB Travaris Cadet (16 rec, 134 yards, 1 TD) will step in as Pierre Thomas’ (shoulder) replacement as the Saints’ pass-catching running back. Cadet had six catches for 51 yards against the Lions and should be in for an even bigger workload on Sunday.

This game will, however, come down to the play of New Orleans’ defense. They’ve allowed 31.0 PPG over the past three weeks and will need to find a way to keep Aaron Rodgers from throwing all over them.

[StarDust Bum]

I must have forgotten to post last nights winners....shit

Rated Plays:

6 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 16 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

4 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/20/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/19/14 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 40-*48-*2 45.45% -*6400

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- Texans are 4-8-1 vs spread in their last 13 road games.

-- Saints covered 15 of their last 20 home games.

-- Seattle is 7-3 in its last 10 games as a road favorite.

-- Colts covered nine of their last twelve road games.

-- Tampa Bay is 7-15-1 in its last 23 home games.

-- Buffalo is 8-16 vs spread in its last 24 road games.

**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: What we're looking for this weekend.......

13) Back in May, who thought Eagles-Cardinals would be battle of 5-1 teams? Nick Foles comes back to Arizona as a much better player than he was for the Arizona Wildcats in college. This is Sunday’s best game.

12) LSU is a home underdog for the 5th time (2-2 in first four) in 9+ years under Les Miles; Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to Baton Rouge, but most of those were as pretty substantial underdogs.

11) Steelers scored 24 points in 2:54 Monday night against a Houston team that imploded. Indy has won five games in row and will not implode, but they’re 2-11 in last 13 games vs Pittsburgh, though this will be Luck’s first visit to Heinz Field.

10) West Virginia knocked Baylor from ranks of unbeaten last week, but now have a long road trip to Oklahoma State, which got bamboozled at TCU. OSU’s starting QB is out for the year; they’re 4-0 at home, but against all stiffs. WVU won both its true road games by three points each.

9) Oakland fired Dennis Allen when the Raiders got home from London; if the Falcons lose to Detroit across the pond, will Mike Smith get the Ziggy too? Atlanta has been playing terrible defense.

8) Mississippi State is #1 in the country, which just looks strange; they’ve got a trap game in Lexington, as a double digit favorite in Lexington, against improved Kentucky. Lot more media distractions when you’re ranked #1. Bulldogs haven’t been on road in over a month, either.

7) World Series shifts to San Francisco, where Ned Yost gets to test his magical managerial run while playing under National League rules. Yost used to manage in Milwaukee, so he’s done it before, but Billy Butler has to sit now, with no DH for three games.

6) USC has a tricky road game at Utah, which is having a hard time picking a starting QB- Utes are back to Wilson this week. Utah’s last three games were all decided by 6 or less points. Trojans allowed 26+ points in each of their last three games.

5) Rookie Zach Mettenberger gets his first start at QB for offensively-challenged Tennessee, with Houston in town after falling apart Monday night. Texans have to be really disappointed to be 3-4; they’re close to having a much better record.

4) Lane Kiffin’s going to be in Knoxville this weekend, which should have the locals out in full force. Young Vols are a 17-point home dog to Alabama, which looked really good at home last week after struggling to win 14-13 at Arkansas.

3) Ravens rallied from a 15-0 deficit to take a 16-15 at home against the Bengals in Week 1, before Cincy won it on a long pass with 5:00 left; now teams meet again in the Queen City, with Bengals on an 0-2-1 downer after their 3-0 start. Ravens are quietly 5-2; do you think they will re-sign Ray Rice if he gets reinstated?

2) South Carolina is getting 18 points at Auburn? Have to look up the last time Spurrier got 18 points in a game, has to be a decent amount of years, but his defense is sub-par this year and that’s bad news against a Malzahn team.

1) I think the Saints are going to break out and beat Green Bay Sunday night; nothing I’ve seen on TV this year endorses that opinion, just a feeling I have.

Think the Jets will beat Buffalo too, but you cannot give points with a team that’s lost its last six games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 26

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Game of the Day: Lions vs. Falcons
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Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 46.5)

The Atlanta Falcons hardly look ready for prime time this season so perhaps a trip overseas is coming at an opportune time as the struggling club attempts to halt a four-game losing streak. The Falcons have dropped all four games by double digits and look to rebound against the Detroit Lions on Sunday morning at London's Wembley Stadium. “We need to worry about this coming week,” Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan said. “We need to prepare better, practice better and play better. We know what to do."

Even though the Falcons are designated the home team, not having to play in Atlanta is a boost for the Lions, who are tied with Green Bay atop the NFC North following last week's dramatic comeback win over New Orleans. Star wideout Calvin Johnson practiced on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday and Detroit hopes he can rejoin the lineup after missing the past two games with a high ankle sprain. It marks the first international contest for both the Falcons and Lions and will be the first NFL tilt to ever be televised at 9:30 a.m. ET.

TV: 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions -3.5. O/U: 46.5

LINE HISTORY: The line has had no movement since opening at Atlanta +3.5. The total has dropped only half a point from a 47 point opening to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - WR Calvin Johnson (Ques-Ankle), RB Reggie Bush (Doub-Ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Doub-Ankle) Falcons - G Justin Blalock (Prob-Back), DT Jonathan Babineaux (Doub-Foot)

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Atlanta came into the season with questions surrounding its defense, but the Falcons have struggled on the other side of the ball - blowing a 10-point second-half lead against the New York Giants in Week 5 and scoring only one touchdown in each of their last two losses to Chicago (27-13) and Baltimore (29-7). Ryan opened the season with a 448-yard, three-TD performance in a win over New Orleans, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in four of the past six games. An already-suspect running game has been further hindered by an injury-ravaged offensive line that is missing four starters. Atlanta is 30th overall in both points (28.4) and total yards (412.1) and has only seven sacks.

ABOUT THE LIONS (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U): Johnson has been a non-factor since his ankle issues cropped up in Week 4, but Detroit has compensated for the superstar receiver's loss with a defense that permits a league-low 290.3 yards and ranks second with 15.0 points allowed. The Lions have also registered 21 sacks and could build upon that total against Ryan, who has been sacked nine times over the past two games. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford has thrown for only nine scoring passes versus six interceptions, but he rallied Detroit with two TD passes in the final 3:38 last week to erase a 13-point deficit against the Saints. Golden Tate had 10 catches for 154 yards and a TD last week and has at least seven receptions in four straight games.

TRENDS:

*Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Under is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 52.83 percent of users are backing the Lions and 57.4 are backing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 26

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Saints
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Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 55.5)

The New Orleans Saints will be banking on their home-field dominance when they host the surging Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. The Saints have dropped all four games on the road, including a galling setback last week at Detroit in which they blew a 13-point lead over the final 3:38, but quarterback Drew Brees said it's not time to panic. "There's no must-win games until they're must-win games," Brees said. "It's important. It's really important, but nobody needs that kind of pressure."

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers adopted a similar mantra to Brees after Green Bay dropped two of its first three, telling the home fans to "relax." Rodgers has guided the Packers to four consecutive wins and has been spectacular in doing so, throwing 13 touchdown passes and zero interceptions to push Green Bay into a tie with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. “We’re 5-2. They’re 2-4," Rodgers said. "They’ve lost some close games. We won a couple close ones. But they’re a good football team."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at New Orleans -1.5, action has forced the line to jump a full point to NO -2.5. The total market opened at 54 before climbing all the way to 56 and it currently sits at 55.5.

INJURY REPORT: Packers - CB Sam Shields (Doub-Knee), S Morgan Burnett (Ques-Calf), RB James Starks (Prob-Ankle) Saints - CB Patrick Robinson (Prob-Hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (Prob-Shoulder), CB Keenan Lewis (Ques-Knee)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rodgers has 18 scoring passes versus one interception - that coming in Week 1 - and is coming off his fourth consecutive games with at least three TD passes in a 38-17 demolition of Carolina. Jordy Nelson has six touchdown catches and is second in the league with 712 receiving yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb has eight TD receptions. The Packers are averaging 36.3 points during their winning streak despite a slow start by second-year running back Eddie Lacy, who has four touchdowns in the past four contests but has been limited to 48 yards or fewer in five of the seven games. Green Bay is one of the league's worst team's against the run, ranking 31st with an average of 147.9 yards allowed.

ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 5-1 O/U): The Saints' defense is permitting 27.5 points per game and appear vulnerable to Rodgers and Green Bay's vaunted aerial attack, surrendering 270.5 passing yards while collecting only nine sacks. Brees' inconsistency is reflected in his past three games - he has thrown for over 300 yards in each but has six touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. One major concern is the health of standout tight end Jimmy Graham, who did not have a catch against the Lions while battling a shoulder injury that has limited him in practice this season. Third-down back Pierre Thomas is expected to miss the game with a shoulder injury, leaving Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson as the primary ball carries.

TRENDS:

*Packers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
*Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
*Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
*Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 62.1 percent of users are behind with an overwhelming 68.8 percent on the over.