The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Top Over bets in action Sunday

Perched at the top of the list as the best best Over bets in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts each bring unblemished 4-0 Over/Under records into early action Sunday.

The Colts have scored at least 41 points on their own in each of the previous two games. They host the Baltimore Ravens and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 49.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, just can't stop anybody from scoring. They've given up a whopping 152 points in their four games this season - easily the highest total in the league. They host the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 47.5.

Also a hot Over bet to begin the season, the Cleveland Browns are 3-0 O/U and visit the Tennessee Titans with a total of 44.


Bears struggle to cover after big home loss

The Chicago Bears were thumped at home by the Green Bay Packers 38-17 last week and that doesn't bode well for Bears backers this week when they visit Carolina.

The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. They are currently 2.5-point road dogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup against the Panthers.


Rams keep cashing Under tickets

The St. Louis Rams have become a boon for bettors banking on low totals.

The Under is a sizzling 7-1 in the Rams' last eight games. St. Louis travels to Philadelphia for a date with the Eagles Sunday.

Philly is currently 6.5-point faves with the total set at 47.5.


History shows faves prevailing in Bucs-Saints games

The dogs haven't had their day in previous meetings between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.

The faves are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups between the two clubs. They'll renew acquaintances in Louisiana Sunday.

The Saints are presently 10.5-point home faves with a total of 48.


Lions-Bills have history of low-scoring games

If you've been backing the Under when the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills have gotten together as of late, you've been collecting some nice profits.

Each of the last four games between the two clubs have gone under the total. Detroit will host the Bills in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

Detroit is currently 6.5-point favorites with an O/U of 43.5.


Titans proving to be a poor spread bet at home

The Tennessee Titans have been an awful spread bet at LP Field, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.

That's a trend that Titans backers need to be aware of ahead of Tennessee's meeting with Cleveland in Nashville Sunday.

Tennessee is currently 2-point home faves with an Over/Under of 44.


Colts have become a boon for Over bettors

Andrew Luck's high-flying Indianapolis Colts offense has put some cash in the pockets of bettors backing the Over in their recent games.

All six of the Colts' last six games have gone over the total. Indy welcomes Baltimore into Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday.

Indianapolis is presently 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 49.


Under on fire when Panthers play NFC teams

When the Carolina Panthers face off against NFC teams, low-scoring games tend to follow.

The Under is 9-0 in the Panthers' last nine games against NFC clubs. They'll host the NFC North's Chicago Bears Sunday.

Cam Newton's crew is currently 2.5-point faves with a total of 45.5.


Underdog covering with ease in Jags-Steelers clashes

If you're planning on wagering on the spread in Sunday's Jacksonville Jaguars-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, there's one particular trend you need to be aware of.

In the last eight contests between the two teams, the underdog is a perfect 8-0. The Jags will host the Steelers once again in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

The Jaguars are currently 6-point home dogs with a total of 47.5 for the game.


Texans posting ugly ATS numbers on turf

The Houston Texans have been a nightmare for spread bettors when playing on turf lately, going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played on the artificial surface.

The Texans will once again play on fieldturf when they travel to AT&T Stadium for a meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The 'Boys are currently 6.5-point home faves with a total of 47.


Under scorching hot between Giants-Falcons

The Under has been the hot play when the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons collide, going 7-1-1 in the last nine matchups between the two clubs.

Atlanta travels to MetLife Stadium Sunday for a date with the G-Men. The Giants are presently 4-point home favorites with a total of 50.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Slight wind in forecast for Browns-Titans matchup

The Tennessee Titans host the Cleveland Browns from LP Field Sunday afternoon, and though weather conditions look to be fairly ideal, wind could play a factor in the game.

Forecasts are calling for wind to blow from the south toward the north endzone at around nine mph at the start of the game, and then increase to around 11 mph.

The Titans are currently 1.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 44.


Eagles dominating Rams against the spread

The St. Louis Rams backers are hoping newly named starting quarterback Austin Davis will have more success covering the spread versus the Eagles than his predecessors.

The Rams are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine meetings with the Eagles and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Total on the rise as Rams visit Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles host the St. Louis Rams Sunday and the Westgate LV Superbook opened the total at 48. That dropped to 47.5 earlier in the week but that number is on the move once again.

Earlier Sunday morning, the book adjusted the total back up to 48.

The Eagles have been a profitable Over venture so far this season, posting a 3-1 O/U record. The Rams are 1-2 O/U.


Buccaneers have trouble covering vs. NFC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off a huge road win in Pittsburgh last week, but have struggled when it comes to covering the spread versus NFC and specificially division opponents.

And that's who the Bucs get this week when they travel to the Super Dome to take on the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games versus the NFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the NFC South.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends to Watch - October

October 1, 2014


The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.


Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.


Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?


Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.


San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.


The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.


Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?


With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 5

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Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Patriots
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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)

Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.

Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -1. O/U: 46

LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)

WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.

CONSENSUS: 59.07% of users are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

October Rated Record:

0 - 0 ......................... *****

0 - 0 ......................... DOUBLE PLAY

2 - 0 ......................... TRIPLE PLAY

0 - 0 ......................... BLOW OUT


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 2-*0-*0 100.00% +1000


Sunday, October 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Carolina - Under 46.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -1 500
Tennessee - Under 44.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +4.5 500 BLOW OUT
Philadelphia - Under 48 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
N.Y. Giants - Over 50.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -10.5 500 *****
New Orleans - Over 47.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -5.5 500 *****
Dallas - Under 47.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Detroit - Under 43 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500 *****
Indianapolis - Under 49 500 *****

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Jacksonville - Under 47.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

October 5, 2014 »

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM St. Louis +4.5 1268 29.85% Philadelphia -4.5 2980 70.15% View View

4:25 PM N.Y. Jets +6.5 1264 30.57% San Diego -6.5 2871 69.43% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo +4.5 1600 38.79% Detroit -4.5 2525 61.21% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay +10.5 1597 39.64% New Orleans -10.5 2432 60.36% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore +2.5 1701 41.13% Indianapolis -2.5 2435 58.87% View View

4:05 PM Arizona +7.5 1886 47.46% Denver -7.5 2088 52.54% View View

1:00 PM Houston +5 2085 50.59% Dallas -5 2036 49.41% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta +4.5 2209 52.56% N.Y. Giants -4.5 1994 47.44% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City +4 2054 52.73% San Francisco -4 1841 47.27% View View

8:30 PM Cincinnati -2.5 2265 56.54% New England +2.5 1741 43.46% View View

1:00 PM Chicago +1 2398 56.65% Carolina -1 1835 43.35% View View

1:00 PM Cleveland -1 2150 62.59% Tennessee +1 1285 37.41% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh -5.5 2765 67.24% Jacksonville +5.5 1347 32.76% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Cleveland 44.5 954 43.70% Tennessee 44.5 1229 56.30% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh 47.5 1228 44.65% Jacksonville 47.5 1522 55.35% View View

1:00 PM Chicago 46.5 1404 50.61% Carolina 46.5 1370 49.39% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City 43 1255 53.96% San Francisco 43 1071 46.04% View View

1:00 PM Houston 47.5 1495 54.40% Dallas 47.5 1253 45.60% View View

8:30 PM Cincinnati 45.5 1308 55.49% New England 45.5 1049 44.51% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore 49 1600 57.25% Indianapolis 49 1195 42.75% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 43 1609 57.63% Detroit 43 1183 42.37% View View

4:25 PM N.Y. Jets 44 1496 57.96% San Diego 44 1085 42.04% View View

4:05 PM Arizona 47 1558 58.40% Denver 47 1110 41.60% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis 48 1772 63.72% Philadelphia 48 1009 36.28% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta 50.5 1879 65.61% N.Y. Giants 50.5 985 34.39% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay 47.5 1884 67.29% New Orleans 47.5 916 32.71% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Late Games:


Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Denver -8 500 BLOW OUT

Denver - Under 47 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Kansas City +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Francisco - Over 43 500 TRIPLE PLAY


N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Jets +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

San Diego - Under 44 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAILOUT GAME:


Cincinnati - 8:30 PM ET Cincinnati -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

New England - Under 45.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[jcindaville]

Good luck Stardust

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 5

October 5, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 5 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 12-1

Against the Spread 8-3-2

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 10-3

Against the Spread 7-5-2

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 7-6


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 49-25

Against the Spread 37-34-3

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 46-28

Against the Spread 34-38-3

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 39-35


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Green Bay (-9.5) defeated Minnesota 42-10 in wire-to-wire fashion on Thursday night.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Buffalo (+4.5) rallied from a 14-3 deficit to defeat Detroit 17-14 on a 58-yard field goal from Dan Carpenter. The Bills cashed on the money-line at +190 (Bet $100 to win $190).

The Buccaneers were the biggest underdogs (+11) to cover as they fell to the Saints 37-31 in overtime. Tampa Bay held a 31-20 lead early in the fourth quarter.

All About the Chalk

The ‘chalk’ lived up to their expectations in Week 5 as favorites posted a 12-1 straight up record. Against the spread, the favorites produced an 8-3-2 mark versus the number.

The two underdogs that won and failed to cover were the Saints and Cowboys, coincidentally both those teams needed overtime to capture victories. Our closing numbers had Cleveland (-1) and San Francisco (-5) end us as pushes in their wins against Tennessee and Kansas City respectively.

San Diego improved to 5-0 ATS with its 31-0 thrashing of the New York Jets at home.

Teaser Pleasers

From our friends at William Hill, there were a lot of early winners on their Teaser Parlay Card with seven of the first nine point-spreads ended in a middle, which means both sides won. Through the first 13 games, nine were decided by eight points or less.

Collapses

The Bears, Buccaneers, Lions, Falcons and Titans had two things in common on Sunday. They all had double-digit leads at one point in their game and they all wound up losing.

Tennessee stands out as the biggest loser of the bunch. The Titans led 28-3 at halftime before the Browns closed the game by scoring 26 unanswered points. The win snapped a seven-game road losing streak for Cleveland.

Runner-up goes to Detroit, who led Buffalo 14-3 at halftime. The Lions didn’t have the services of All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson in the final two quarters and it showed. Detroit was blanked in the second-half and most of the blame is being pointed at kicker Alex Henery, who missed all three of his field goal attempts. On the other side of the field, Buffalo’s Dan Carpenter went 3-of-4 with his foot, which included a 58-yard game winner.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Chicago +3 to Chicago +1.5 (LOSS)

Cleveland +3 to Cleveland -1 (PUSH)

St. Louis +7 to St. Louis +3.5 (LOSS)

Dallas +5 to Dallas -6 (LOSS)

Buffalo +6 to Buffalo +4 (WIN)

Baltimore +3.5 to Baltimore +2.5 (LOSS)

Kansas City +6.5 to Kansas City +5 (PUSH)

N.Y. Jets +7 to N.Y. Jets +6 (LOSS)

Cincinnati -1.5 to Cincinnati -3

One Unbeaten Down

Arizona and Cincinnati entered Week 5 as the only remaining unbeaten clubs. The Cardinals put up a solid fight early but couldn’t withstand the offensive punch of the Broncos. Denver finished closed the game on a 17-0 scoring run and ended up with a 41-20 win. This was the first ATS win of the season for the Broncos and also the first time bettors witnessed the Denver-Over combination that the betting public loves to bang.

Still Winless (0-5)

The Jaguars remained winless on Sunday after the club fell to the Steelers 17-9 at home. Jacksonville trailed 10-9 in the fourth quarter but were upended when rookie quarterback Blake Bortles was intercepted for a touchdown. The Jaguars failed to cover as six-point home underdogs and are now 0-5 both straight up and against the spread this season. In Week 6, Jacksonville will meet AFC South foe Tennessee on the road. Oddsmakers have installed the Titans as six-point home favorites.

Totals

Despite a couple shootouts in the early games, the ‘under’ produced a 5-4 record and most of the results were clear-cut too. Some savvy bettors may’ve cashed a middle ticket on the Falcons-Giants matchup. The game opened 49 and closed at 50.5 at most betting shops. New York had a chance to score a late touchdown but settled for a field goal and 30-20 victory. Atlanta led this game 20-10 midway through the third quarter but was held scoreless over its final four drives. Including the late games and Thursday’s outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 7-6 through the first 13 games of Week 5.

After today’s win, the Browns have now seen the ‘over’ cash in all four of their games.

The Jaguars and Colts both saw the ‘under’ cash for the first time this season.

Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 5-0 in its first five games.

[StarDust Bum]

'Hawks listed as MNF favorites

October 5, 2014


Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -7, Total: 46

The Redskins look to rebound from a bad Week 4 performance with a home victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Monday night.

Seattle is coming off its bye week, prior to which it won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, who faces a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and 4 TD passes in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. Washington has now given up 82 points and 828 yards during its two-game losing skid.

The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013 when the Seahawks won 24-14 on the road. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards. Four of the past six games played between these teams in Washington have gone Over the total.

In the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 28-12 ATS (70%) in all lined games, including 11-3 ATS (79%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle, however, is 7-18 ATS (28%) after a bye week since 1992.

TEs Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion), OT Trent Williams (knee), LB Akeem Jordan (knee) and DE Kedric Golston (groin) are are listed as questionable for Washington.
Seattle is in pretty good shape injury-wise after its bye week, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, and both LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) and CB Tharold Simon (knee) are both questionable for Monday's game.

The Seahawks escaped their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos in their last game, winning 26-20 in overtime at home. Their defense continues to be a nightmare to run against, allowing just 72.3 yards per game on the ground (5th in NFL) on an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll try to take Redskins top RB Alfred Morris out of this game and make Kirk Cousins beat them through the air. Cousins is coming off of a miserable performance, and Seattle’s defense will apply pressure early to prevent him from getting comfortable, but its pass defense has been lit up for 572 passing yards and 5 TD over the past two games.

Offensively, the Seahawks are all about controlling the pace of the game. They’ll feature RB Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) heavily in the early going, although the Redskins are allowing just 87.0 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (651 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) is likely salivating over this matchup. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in every game this season and could be even more effective against this Redskins passing defense that was downright embarrassing versus the Giants last week. Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll, will try to find clever ways to get the ball into WR Percy Harvin’s hands. The lightning-quick wide receiver leads the team in targets (17), catches (15) and receiving yards (106), and has the ability to hurt defenses as a pass catcher, but also with jet sweeps and wide receiver reverses. He is a dynamic open-field runner, who has gained 86 yards on just six carries (14.3 YPC) this year.

The Redskins will do everything they can to move past their horrible performance against the Giants in Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins (934 pass yards, 8.2 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT) will need to look at the tape and find ways to take better care of the football. He was blindly throwing the ball around the field against the Giants and was responsible for five of his team's six turnovers with 4 INT and one lost fumble. If he does that again, the ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary will do plenty of damage. WR Pierre Garcon (24 rec, 255 yards, 1 TD) is a key player in this game, as he’ll need to use his quickness to get open against the Seahawks’ zone. Garcon had just two catches for 28 yards against the Giants, but he also had a bad Week 2 and responded with 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Redskins will lean on RB Alfred Morris (316 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) plenty in this game. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, but the last time these teams played, Morris rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries. Washington would be wise to stick with what was working the last time they played this team.

The tight end position is something to monitor in this game. Kirk Cousins loves to get his tight ends involved, but he could be without both injured TEs Jordan Reed and Niles Paul (21 rec, 313 yards, 1 TD) on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Seahawks at Redskins

October 5, 2014

The Redskins are featured on national television for the second straight week, as Washington hopes to turn in a better performance than it did last week against the Giants. The task doesn’t get easier, hosting the defending champion Seahawks on Monday night, as Seattle is fresh off its bye week, while seeking its first road win of the season.

Starting with Washington, the Redskins embarrassed themselves last Thursday night in a 45-14 home setback to the Giants as three-point home favorites. New York racked up 449 yards of offense on Washington, while Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions in his second start of the season. Washington turned the ball over six times in the loss, as the Redskins held the ball for only 23 minutes. Washington’s opponents scored 27 points in the first two weeks, but the Eagles and Giants combined to score 82 points in the past two games.

The Seahawks last took the field in Week 3, knocking off the Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch, 26-20 in overtime. Seattle grabbed a 17-3 advantage, seven months after steamrolling Denver, 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII to win the franchise’s first title. The Broncos didn’t fold as easily this time around, scoring a late touchdown in regulation to force overtime, tying the game at 20-20 as four-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch scored the game-winning touchdown in OT from six yards out to give the Seahawks the cover, but the game stayed ‘under’ the total of 48.

Pete Carroll’s team won seven of eight road games last season, but dropped its first contest away from CenturyLink Field this season. Seattle dropped a 30-21 decision at San Diego in Week 2 as 4 ½-point favorites, the first win of a current four-game winning streak for the Chargers. Seattle held the ball for less than 18 minutes in that defeat, while allowing more than 19 points for the first time in the past five road games.

The last time these teams met up came in the Wild Card round of the 2012 season at FedEx Field. The Redskins built a 14-0 first quarter lead before the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to take a 21-14 advantage in the fourth quarter. Robert Griffin III tore his ACL minutes after Lynch’s go-ahead score in the final quarter, sealing Washington’s fate in a 24-14 defeat. The Seahawks advanced to the divisional round, while covering as three-point road favorites to win the franchise’s first away playoff game since 1983.

Since the 17-6 loss at Houston in the opener, Jay Gruden’s squad has hit the ‘over’ in three straight games, even though Washington’s only win came against 0-5 Jacksonville, 41-10 in Week 2. Griffin remains out with an ankle injury suffered in that victory over the Jaguars, as Cousins has thrown for 934 yards and six touchdowns with five interceptions in three games.

The Seahawks have won eight straight Monday night games since 2005, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS under Carroll. Last season, Seattle failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 14-9 victory at St. Louis, as the Seahawks held the Rams out of the end zone on a goal-to-go on the final play of the game. The Seahawks have cashed six of their past eight as an away favorite of single-digits, while winning in all three trips to the East Coast last season.

The Redskins have been dreadful on Mondays since 2008, losing seven of eight times, including six losses at FedEx Field. Last season, Washington lost twice on Monday night football, allowing 60 points in defeats to Philadelphia and San Francisco. The only victory for Washington in this span came against the Giants in 2012, edging New York, 17-16 as three-point underdogs as part of a seven-game winning streak en route to the NFC East title.

Washington is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Redskins are 4-10 ATS when receiving points since 2013. The Redskins haven’t been a home ‘dog of at least a touchdown since 2011, when they barely covered as 7 ½-point underdogs in a 34-27 setback to New England. Last season, Washington cashed just two of six times at home in the ‘dog role, as three of those games closed with the Redskins as one-point ‘dogs (1-2 SU/ATS).

The Seahawks are currently seven-point favorites with the total set at 45 ½. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60’s with clear skies as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

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Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

[StarDust Bum]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail :-(( Not a GOOD DAY

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 11-*16-*1 40.74% -*3300 :-((


Rated Plays:

0 - 2.................................*****

4 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

2 - 5 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

1 - 1 ................................BLOW OUTS