The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 6

October 7, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

A wild and wooly week of college football action saw six of the top eight ranked teams lose in the same week for the first time ever in AP poll history.

That sets the table for this week’s treatise as we prepare to go ‘inside the stats’ on last week’s football games.

As we analyze the numbers to date it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, October 6th, unless noted otherwise.

TALE OF THE TAPE

With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Best Offense Yards per Game
1. East Carolina 581
2. Western Kentucky 576
3. Arizona 574

Worst Offense Yards per Game
1. Wake Forest 178
2. Eastern Michigan 189
3. South Florida 233

Best Defense Yards per Game
1. Louisville 219
2. Stanford 262
3. Alabama 265

Worst Defense Yards per Game
1. Bowling Green 610
2. California 606
3. UNLV 589

GOING INSIDE THE STATS

According to last week’s game stats, here are the hoax teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, but were out-gained by 100 or more yards (witness BYU last week):

NCAAFB: California, South Florida

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost bogus ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, meaning they lost the game lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

NCAAFB: Houston Cougars and Washington State
NFL: St. Louis Rams (2nd straight game)

FYI: There is one game on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win: Idaho vs. Georgia Southern.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Minnesota Vikings are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss of 20 or more points, including 5-0 ATS in division games.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-0 SU and ATS away in games after facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 8-0 SU and ATS in his last eight division games after winning SU as an underdog the previous game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith is 0-7 ATS in his NFL career as a non-division dog in games in which his team owns a losing record.

Defending Super Bowl losers (read: Denver Broncos) are 1-9 ATS versus non-division opponents that scored 3 or fewer points in its previous game.

Defending Super Bowl champions (read: Seattle Seahawks) are just 7-9 SU and 3-13 ATS home after a Monday Night game, including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five games.


STAT OF THE WEEK

The Cincinnati Bengals are 11-0 SU and ATS in their last eleven regular season home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Quarterly Power Rankings

October 7, 2014


This is our first installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team.

Let’s jump right into the numbers!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:

Performance Ratings

Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover

Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin

3 SEA 55.0 3 42.3 5 97.3 1 3 0

3 IND 52.0 4 39.7 10 91.7 2 27 1

3 SF 47.3 13 44.0 2 91.3 3 17 5

2 NO 59.0 1 32.0 24 91.0 4 31 (7)

3 DEN 48.1 12 42.0 6 90.1 5 2 (1)

4 SD 49.3 10 40.8 8 90.1 5 29 6

4 DAL 58.6 2 31.3 25 89.9 7 15 (1)

3 DET 36.8 25 51.6 1 88.4 8 26 (2)

3 NYG 46.9 14 41.2 7 88.1 9 28 0

2 MIA 44.8 16 43.0 4 87.8 10 18 0

3 BAL 51.0 7 36.2 14 87.2 11 11 2

3 PIT 50.8 8 36.1 15 86.9 12 32 (1)

3 CIN 51.4 5 35.1 18 86.5 13 9 3

2 KC 43.8 17 38.1 11 81.9 14 7 (3)

2 CHI 43.7 18 37.9 13 81.6 15 20 1

1 WAS 45.0 15 35.7 17 80.7 16 24 (5)

3 NE 42.5 20 38.1 11 80.6 17 30 6

2 ATL 51.3 6 28.4 28 79.7 18 25 (3)

3 BUF 35.9 28 43.7 3 79.6 19 8 6

1 STL 48.3 11 30.9 26 79.1 20 23 (3)

1 NYJ 36.1 26 40.8 8 76.9 21 19 (7)

3 GB 41.1 21 33.9 19 75.0 22 13 6

1 TEN 40.8 23 33.2 20 74.0 23 7 0

4 PHI 40.3 24 33.2 20 73.5 24 14 (4)

3 CAR 40.9 22 32.5 23 73.4 25 12 4

3 HOU 43.0 19 30.3 27 73.3 26 22 4

2 CLE 50.3 9 22.0 32 72.3 27 5 3

3 ARI 35.5 29 35.9 16 71.4 28 1 4

2 MIN 34.9 30 33.0 22 67.9 29 22 (2)

1 TB 36.1 26 25.1 31 61.2 30 16 (2)

0 OAK 28.8 31 26.3 30 55.0 31 10 (4)

0 JAC 26.9 32 27.1 29 54.0 32 4 (6)


At the top we see six playoff teams from last season with the Super Bowl combatants Seattle & Denver in the Top 5; let’s discuss these six teams briefly:

Seatle: No surprise seeing the defending Super Bowl champions at the top of the ratings after five weeks, four games for the Seahawks. Seattle was outplayed in their only loss of the season to San Diego in Week 2; in their other three outings they posted grades of 113, 100 & 109 – very strong. Not only are they performing well, seemingly avoiding the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, they have faced the 3rd toughest schedule (ARI #1, DEN #2), another strong indication this team is once again at the top of the NFL.

Indianapolis: The Colts have NOT graded out well the last two seasons despite posting 11 wins in each of Andrew Luck’s first two NFL seasons (#16 in 2013 & #24 in 2012). This year so far on aggregate has been different – but keep in mind two things: one, they were outplayed badly in their opening two games vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams Denver & Philadelphia; two, they increased their aggregate grade through five games with triple digit marks vs. Jacksonville, Tennessee & Baltimore. Let’s see where the Colts stand after their next five games before getting too excited they have turned the corner & are a true Super Bowl contender in the AFC.

San Francisco: The Niners are back in a very familiar spot inside the Top 5 checking in at #3 this week. Many in the media panicked after their first three games (I certainly did not because we saw the same story in the 2013 season), but SF got back to running the ball & took care of business in their last two vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams PhiladelphiaI & Kansas City (albeit both games were at home). They have outplayed four of five opponents thus far (only game they did not was at Arizona where they still managed a grade of 78, meaning they were narrowly outplayed) and still have the look of an NFC contender in the numbers.

New Orleans: Without question the biggest surprise to many will be the Saints, who check in at #4 in the performance ratings. It’s very easy to see what their main issue has been so far this season – turnovers. They are tied with New York Jets for worst TOM in the NFL – and if they do figure out a way to fix that issue they are playing solid football – albeit only on the offensive side where they rank #1. Their defense is a big issue & it only got worse losing S Byrd last week. With a remaining schedule that ranks 2nd toughest in the NFL according to opponent wins through the early part of this season it’s clearly going to be an uphill battle for the Saints in 2014.

Denver:The Broncos check in tied for the 5th spot with division rival San Diego, but have faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL to this point vs. SD’s 29th. Each of their first four opponents won 10+ games in 2013 & outside this week’s trip to NYJ they will see 2013 10+ win teams through Week 9 before facing Oakland, St. Louis & Miami in consecutive weeks. Although they were able to push the Seahawks to OT on a vintage Peyton Manning drive late in the 4th quarter they were badly outplayed in that game to the tune of 99-61: meaning the final score was not indicative of how dominant the Seahawks really were on that day (most of you probably realized that by watching the game). Denver will be near the top of the ratings all season long, but once again their season will come down to their success in January & perhaps February.

San Diego: The Chargers are tied with Denver at this point for 5th, and are a clear player for the AFC Super Bowl berth. Head Coach Mike McCoy has revitalized Philip Rivers’ career, but can they get over those Broncos in the AFC West remains a big question, especially with the injuries in their backfield to RBs Matthews & Woodhead. SD’s SOS to date checks in at 29th in the NFL and that INCLUDES a game vs. Seattle – showing just how weak their other 4 opponents have been. Expect the Chargers to be around 9-2 before their final 5 games of the regular season that feature @BAL, NE, DEN, @SF, @KC – those five are likely to tell the story of their regular season.

Next is my red flag/green light identification. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings & TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

Red Flag: Arizona (w/o QB Carson Palmer), Houston, Carolina

Green Light: New Orleans, Dallas, Kansas City

Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):

Division Rankings

Division Rating Overall Rank

NFC West 52 1

AFC West 55 2

NFC East 56 3

AFC North 63 4

AFC East 67 5

NFC North 74 6

NFC South 77 7

AFC South 83 8


Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season.

AFC Playoffs

#1 Denver

#2 Cincinnati

#3 Indianapolis

#4 New England

#5 San Diego

#6 Baltimore

NFC Playoffs

#1 Seattle

#2 Dallas

#3 Detroit

#4 Carolina

#5 Arizona

#6 Philadelphia

Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game. I simply add up the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played, and it all comes to my projected standings listed above. One aspect of this analysis to note is the teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to where team’s actual records will finish (especially early in the season) – meaning, using this analysis to project order of finish, playoff berths and seeds is very accurate, but using it to project actual wins and losses will not be as accurate since teams on the outer edges of wins (very high or very low) will typically win more/less than projected.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team

1 Denver

2 Seattle

3 Cincinnati

4 Indianapolis

4 San Diego

6 Dallas

7 Detroit

8 Arizona

8 N.Y. Giants

10 San Francisco

11 New Orleans

12 Philadelphia

13 Green Bay

13 Baltimore

15 Carolina

16 New England

17 Kansas City

17 Pittsburgh

19 Atlanta

19 Washington

21 Chicago

22 Buffalo

23 Miami

24 N.Y. Jets

25 Houston

26 Cleveland

27 Minnesota

28 Tampa Bay

29 Tennessee

30 St. Louis

31 Oakland

32 Jacksonville

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 6.......

-- Indianapolis covered its last nine divisional games.

-- Patriots covered three of their last 12 road games.

-- Tennessee is 0-8 vs spread in last eight away games.

-- Seattle covered 12 of its last 16 home games.

-- Steelers are 3-8 in last 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Denver is 13-5 in last 18 games as single digit favorite.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Must’ve been fun to be in Oxford, MS Saturday night, especially when they paraded the goal posts from the football field down Main Street after Ole Miss beat Alabama. Rebels go to Texas A&M Saturday after Aggies got drilled in Starkville; tough job for Ole Miss coaches to get ready for that game after such a big win.

12) Hugh Freeze is the Ole Miss football coach; had forgotten that he was the high school coach in book/movie The Blind Side. Read last night that Ole Miss got a new basketball practice facility; the father in The Blind Side, Sean Touhy, played PG for Ole Miss and does some TV work for the Memphis Grizzlies. He helped fund the practice facility. It’s a small world in some of these college communities.

11) I like to watch ESPN and FOX on Thursday/Friday to get insights on the week’s college games, but I was disappointed listening to Brian Griese/Mark May in the studio last week, when May picked LSU to beat Auburn and Griese laughed, telling the host “You can tell when he doesn’t believe one of his picks” then explained how. If guys are going on TV and making up stuff just so the two experts disagree for the sake of argument, then they’re wasting my time. I want honest opinions, not contrived “disagreements”. Not good.

10) Tom Brady is 3-2 in Super Bowls; the five games were decided by a total of 16 points.

9) There are five D-I basketball teams who have been D-I for long time and have yet to play in an NCAA tournament: Army, Citadel, Northwestern, St Francis (NY), and William & Mary.

8) Russell Wilson ran ball for 122 yards Monday night, most ever by a QB in the 699-game history of Monday Night Football. Seattle has a huge edge with its salary cap, not having to pay Wilson yet; they have a big-time QB making less than $1M. That’s going to change after this season.

7) Why are Old Dominion and Rice in the same conference? Texas Tech and West Virginia? Maryland and Nebraska? Tulane and UConn? How do kids learn geography these days?

6) They’re adding 5-on-5 scrimmages to the NBA Draft Combine next spring. My question is this: How could you have a combine without watching guys play 5-on-5 basketball? What genius came up with that idea? Oy. At least it is fixed now.

5) There are 15 basketball teams in the ACC this winter, which is too many; an odd number is untenable. 7 of those 15 teams used to play in the Big East. An ACC without Maryland is just weird.

4) NL playoff games are on FOX Sports 1, a station not everyone gets. Guy I know is a Dodger fan and has to go out to watch the games. What is baseball thinking about hiding their playoff games? Does partnering with FOX help baseball?

3) FOX actually has a camera imbedded in the ground in front of home plate in the Dodger series, in fair territory. It provides some interesting shots; wonder how much it costs if the camera gets hit by a ball or stepped on and breaks?

2) When John Lackey got traded to St Louis, he wanted to wear number 41, but reliever Pat Neshek already had the number. Negotiations ensued, with Lackey finally getting #41, and Neshek getting a Babe Ruth-autographed baseball.

That has to be worth some serious money. Well, serious money for me, maybe not for them.

1) If you care about such things, 13 of 16 NFL primetime games have gone over the total so far this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 6 line watch: Act fast if you like the Eagles

Spread to bet now

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

This is the week of the home dog. When the Week 6 lines first hit the books, no fewer than seven of the 11 games that had numbers available featured home teams getting points.

One that doesn’t has the Giants at Philly in a game that could make things even messier at the top of the NFC East. The Eagles have hardly been dominant at home over the past several years, and even last year when the Giants were going belly up, NY managed to come into Philly and beat the Eagles outright, 15-7.

The Eagles are a different team this time around, though, and while neither team has played against much A-level competition, the Eagles look like they are ready to start putting up decent numbers and New York might have been playing a little over its head.

If you’re on the Eagles, eat the points now before this becomes a field goal game.

Spread to wait on

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

Early-week money is heavy on the Ravens in this one, figuring Baltimore will use the Buccaneers as retaliation after losing in Indianapolis. But scrape below the surface a bit and we can see that Tampa Bay’s 1-4 record is a bit misleading.

The Bucs were a possession away from beating Carolina and St. Louis in Weeks 1 and 2, knocked off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, then had the Saints pinned on the mat on Sunday, leading by 11 in the fourth period before running out of gas in overtime.

Tampa Bay may fall victim to injuries and a lack of depth as we get to November, but right now the Bucs are competing. And with heavy money already on the Ravens, it’s worthwhile swimming with the sharps on this one, seeing if the line nudges up a bit and then playing TB at 4 or 4.5.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (46.5)

Life is miserable for the QB-less Jets right now, sitting at 1-4 and seeing Buffalo playing well and the Patriots back on track. Looks like another lost season in East Rutherford.

The NYJ really need a competitive game to keep their fan base from outright rebellion. The only way to do that against the Broncos is to run the ball, keep possession as much as possible and hope to move the chains well enough early to put a score on the board and prevent things from getting out of hand. If you think they can do that, an under play is worth a look. Besides, you can still cash on the under even if the final is 43-3 Denver.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 9

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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 2) - 10/9/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 12

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DENVER (3 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 4) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 5) at TENNESSEE (1 - 4) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (2 - 3) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 10/12/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (3 - 2) at MIAMI (2 - 2) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 157-114 ATS (+31.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 2) at MINNESOTA (2 - 3) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (3 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-72 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 4) - 10/12/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 4) - 10/12/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/12/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-53 ATS (-29.3 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 1) - 10/12/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) - 10/12/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 158-124 ATS (+21.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 13

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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 2) at ST LOUIS (1 - 3) - 10/13/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 137-174 ATS (-54.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 137-174 ATS (-54.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-137 ATS (-51.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 9th

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:25 ET
Indianapolis: 59-36 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Houston: 1-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Sunday, Oct. 12th

Denver at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Denver: 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Jets: 16-5 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 42-24 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-21 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Tennessee: 9-1 OVER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Chicago at Atlanta, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 5-16 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
Atlanta: 3-19 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Green Bay at Miami, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 44-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
Miami: 6-0 ATS as a home underdog

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-9 ATS off a non-conference game
Minnesota: 67-40 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Cincinnati: 8-24 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 76-52 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 31-14 ATS after a win by 3 or less points

Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 38-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tampa Bay: 19-5 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games

San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 16-6 ATS after allowing 6 points or less last game
Oakland: 16-6 UNDER after a bye week

Dallas at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 12-4 ATS against conference opponents
Dallas: 42-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Washington: 0-4 against NFC West division opponents
Arizona: 10-3 off 1 or more straight overs

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
NY Giants: 33-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 30-13 UNDER in home games in October games


Monday, Oct. 13th

San Francisco at St Louis, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
St Louis: 7-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 9

8:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home


Sunday, October 12

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing Miami
Green Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 16 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Buffalo's last 16 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TAMPA BAY
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Diego
Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games at home

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing Washington

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing NY Giants


Monday, October 13

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday Game
Colts (3-2) @ Texans (3-2)—Indy is 20-4 in series, winning last three by 12-3-22 points, but they’ve lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10+ points; home side won seven of last eight series games. Colts won last three games after 0-2 start; they’re 5-1-1 as road favorites under Pagano, 9-6-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Texans are 2-0 at home, allowing three TDs on 24 drives; they’re 4-6 as home dogs since ’09, 3-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less. Colts allowed 30+ points in both losses, 17 or less in all three wins; Houston scored exactly 17 points in three of five games. Three of last four Indy games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 9

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Thursday Night Football: Colts at Texans
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3, 46)

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans already have separated themselves from the AFC South pack as they prepare for a first-place showdown Thursday night in Houston. "The division games are huge. I think everybody that has played in the league knows that and really understands how much they mean," Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told reporters. "There is an added emphasis on this week, for sure, especially with it being Indianapolis." The defending division champion Colts have won nine straight against AFC South rivals dating to 2012.

The Colts have won three straight after dropping their first two games by a combined 10 points, and their defense has been impressive during the winning streak. They'll try to continue that trend against a Houston offense that has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the passing game. The Colts have won three straight meetings and 20 of 24 all-time.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as 2.5-point road faves, but that has moved to -3. The total opened 45.5 but has increased a half-point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Colts - LB Jerrell Freeman (Questionable, hamstring), T Jacke Mewhort (Questionable, ankle). Texans - DB Darryl Morris (Questionable, ankle), CB Johnathan Joseph (Questionable, knee), LB Brian Cushing (Out, knee).

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-2.0) + Texans (+1.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Pick

ABOUT THE COLTS (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U): The defense has been a pleasant surprise in Indianapolis, holding three straight opponents under 350 total yards and forcing three turnovers in each contest. That unit turned in a strong effort in Sunday's 20-13 home win over Baltimore, helping the Colts overcome four turnovers. The Colts hope last week's offensive miscues were an anomaly and look for a bounce-back effort from quarterback Andrew Luck, who threw two interceptions against the Ravens but is aiming for his fourth straight 300-yard passing game.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-2, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his first year with Houston, but he has excelled in two home starts against the Colts, compiling 377 yards with four TDs and no interceptions for a 116.6 rating. Running back Arian Foster also has enjoyed facing Indianapolis — he has 752 rushing yards and six TDs in six meetings, including a career-high 231 yards and three scores in 2010. Houston's defense has given up big yardage totals all season but has bailed itself out with a league-best 12 takeaways.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, the Colts are seeing 66.84 percent of support from bettors

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Indianapolis at Houston
The Colts head to Houston (2-0 SU at home) on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 2-6 ATS record in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Houston is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by 3. Dunkel Pick Houston (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 101-102: Indianapolis at Houston (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.092; Houston 138.071
Dunkel Line: Houston by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12

Game 251-252: Denver at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.520; NY Jets 125.841
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under

Game 253-254: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.593; Cleveland 130.826
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under

Game 255-256: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 117.219; Tennessee 127.141
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6); N/A

Game 257-258: Chicago at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.213; Atlanta 128.352
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 56
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Over

Game 259-260: Green Bay at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.613; Miami 128.047
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 261-262: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.822; Minnesota 130.203
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under

Game 263-264: Carolina at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.323; Cincinnati 137.176
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.140; Buffalo 133.506
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under

Game 267-268: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.651; Tampa Bay 131.513
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over

Game 269-270: San Diego at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 141.199; Oakland 122.380
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 19; 38
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Under

Game 271-272: Dallas at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.281; Seattle 141.807
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Seattle by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8 1/2); Over

Game 273-274: Washington at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.276; Arizona 135.763
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3 1/2); N/A

Game 275-276: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.244; Philadelphia 135.280
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under


MONDAY, OCTOBER 13

Game 277-278: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 136.075; St. Louis 130.107
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Indy heads to Houston

October 8, 2014


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 45.5

The Colts look to win their fourth straight game when they hit the road for a Thursday night matchup with the division foe Texans.

Indianapolis is coming off a 20-13 home victory over the Ravens, thanks to an outstanding defense that held its opponent to just 287 total yards of offense. The Colts will face a Houston team that is struggling offensively after having just lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas. The Texans ran the ball effectively (176 yards) in that game, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Indianapolis has won-and-covered in each of the past three meetings between these teams, as Houston's last victory in this series (both SU and ATS) came on Dec. 16, 2012, when it won 29-17.

The Colts are 20-4 SU against the Texans, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight meetings on the road. Seven of the past nine games played between these teams in Houston have gone Over the total. Indianapolis has three major absences from this game to deal with in LB Robert Mathis (Achilles), who is out for the season, suspended DB LaRon Landry and DL Arthur Jones (ankle), who is questionable.

The Colts started the season 0-2, but are now back over .500 after winning three straight games. QB Andrew Luck (1,617 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) wasn’t as sharp as he has been in last week’s 20-13 win over Baltimore, finishing with 312 passing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He’ll need to limit his mistakes against what’s been a solid defense in Houston. WR Reggie Wayne (30 rec, 384 yards, 1 TD) continues to be Luck’s favorite target, even after tearing his ACL last year. Wayne caught seven passes for 77 yards in the Week 5 win over the Ravens. His ability to create separation is truly special, and he should be a major X-factor against the Texans.

The Colts rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown against a good Baltimore run defense last game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (250 rush yards, 0 TD) continues to be productive for Indianapolis. He rushed 15 times for 68 yards and also caught four passes for 17 yards. Bradshaw, who has four receiving touchdowns this year, will need to find a way to continue running well, even against DE J.J. Watt (2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and this relentless Texans’ front seven. The Colts defense has been decent this year, allowing 240.4 passing yards per game (16th in NFL) and 101.8 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Their rush defense will need to keep up the good work, as they now have to face a red-hot Arian Foster.

The Texans were unable to pickup a victory against the Cowboy last week, but RB Arian Foster (404 yards, 3 TD) did everything he could to carry his team, rushing 23 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 15 yards. Foster has absolutely steamrolled the Colts in his career. Not counting the last meeting, where Foster left the game with an injury on the first possession, he has gained an eye-popping 867 total yards (173 YPG) and 6 TD in five career meetings with this division foe. He’ll need to find a way to produce, as he is the only player on this Texans team that can be relied upon to move the chains on a week-to-week basis.

One player who must improve for this team to succeed is QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,056 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), who has been miserable as of late. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown just two touchdown passes and a horrendous six interceptions. If he doesn’t start taking better care of the football, the Texans could turn somewhere else at quarterback. WR Andre Johnson (27 rec, 320 yards, 0 TD) has looked great for Houston, including hauling in five passes for 58 yards in the loss to Dallas, but he will likely not find the end zone until the quarterback play significantly improves in Houston. The Texans defense is going to need to improve, as they have given up a lot of yards this season. They’re allowing 253.2 yards per game against the pass (22nd in NFL), which is not going to fly against Andrew Luck.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Look-Ahead

October 9, 2014


Flash back to where you were two months ago and imagine your reaction if someone called Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

I'm still looking around for someone to come snatch up my laptop before one of these keystrokes. Even Jerry Jones spent August tempering the expectations of his often delusional fan base.

"You know we've got an uphill battle this year," Jones told those in attendance at the Cowboys annual kickoff luncheon. It almost seemed like an early white flag. Jones isn't known to make concessions, but probably felt he need to given how bleak things looked back then. Dallas has an uphill battle ahead in Seattle, too, but the mountain suddenly doesn't seem as steep.

In a week where a few resounding statements can be made, Dallas can make the loudest.

That said, they don't even have to win. Covering would mean the Cowboys had a productive day. Giving themselves a chance to steal the game entering the fourth quarter would be something to build on. Not getting blown out would be ideal.

The Seahawks have won 17 of their last 18 games at CenturyLink Field. They've got the best run defense in the league (2.6 ypc), poised to butt heads with DeMarco Murray and a standout offensive line anchoring a ground game that's ammassed an NFL-best 800 rushing yards.

A Cowboys win would mean the star would be everywhere you looked.

Jones would be on top of the world, if only temporarily, for the first time this decade. His team hasn't been four games over .500 in a season since last making the playoffs in 2009.

Teams that have won on Monday night are just 2-3 the following Sunday this season, while the Seahawks have won just of one of their last three games in this situation over the past two seasons. The win came last November at home against Tampa Bay in overtime. Seattle came out flat off the short week and fell behind 21-0. It can't afford a poor early effort against the Cowboys, but isn't as likely to overlook its opponent as it did last year's Bucs, which had then-rookie Mike Glennon making his second road start.

The NFC East's other top contenders meet in Philadelphia on Sunday night in another statement game. Any other week, you could expect Eagles linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks to certainly be out after failing to practice Wednesday and carrying lingering injuries into the weekend, but there's a genuine possibility exceptions are made given the magnitude of this one.

The Giants saw the light turn on for them roughly a quarter into Week 3. After being held scoreless for the first 22 minutes of action against a tough Texans defense, an offense that had scored just a pair of touchdowns in each of their opening two games against Houston and Arizona went on a season-altering drive fittingly culminated by Victor Cruz finding the end zone for the first time this season. New York has scored in every single quarter since, taking down Washington and Atlanta.

The Eagles have struggled offensively the past few weeks, but saw their own struggling big-play threat, Riley Cooper, break through to make the Rams game a full blowout, at least temporarily. A Chip Kelly offense won't look ordinary for long, but it is sputtering. Inconsistent passing, frequent drops and too much dancing east to west from an unproductive LeSean McCoy have been glaring issues. This is an important home game for Nick Foles, who still hasn't inspired confidence among the fan base despite often gaudy numbers and last year's emergence.

Few are calling for backup Mark Sanchez yet, but that's only because special teams and defensive scores have the Eagles 4-1 instead of sub-.500. Beating the Giants at home would take some pressure off Foles and McCoy, which sounds strange given the .800 winning percentage.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 1-4 Jets haven't been able to adequately replace Sanchez with former first-round pick Geno Smith, which is even stranger to write. Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell are the only starting QBs to make at least 15 starts and have had a worst QBR to start their careers since 2007. All are considered busts, with two currently backups and Russell out of football. Smith has a higher ceiling, but combined with last week's missed meeting on Saturday night and his lackluster start on Sunday, boos are sure to rain down on Smith if he plays poorly early and New York falls behind early at home against Denver.

Michael Vick, who first engaged Peyton Manning in a battle of former No. 1 picks way back in 2003, could see action despite looking no better than Smith in San Diego. Two of the more heralded quarterbacks of their era have taken the field on opposite sides a handful of times over their lengthy careers, with Vick winning once in Philadelphia. Manning has won the majority of their duels, including last year's Eagles-Broncos game by a count of 52-20. Following the loss, Vick would make only one more appearance as the Eagles starter and saw his first extensive action as New York's backup only last week.

Considering Rex Ryan hasn't shied away from the fact his days are numbered if he can't get things turned around, these next 10 days are critical to his future coming off a 31-0 loss in San Diego where he was openly defied, er, victimized by confusion over a time-zone change. With the Broncos in town and a trip to New England scheduled for next Thursday, there's a possibility we'll get a Friday dismissal of Ryan if the Jets effort the next two games is as ghastly as it was at Qualcomm.

Tony Sparano will make his debut as Raiders interim coach against San Diego, so the former Jets offensive coordinator will certainly be in touch with his son, Tony, Jr., who is still on staff as New York's offensive assistant. He'll probably want to try exactly the opposite of what the Jets set out to do, but does share similar obstacles against the Chargers that Ryan failed to overcome.

Rookie Derek Carr is still raw, his top receivers have struggled with injuries and subsequent rhythm issues and the defense is hindered by a banged-up vulnerable secondary. The Chargers will look to stay focused on executing at a high level in spite of their level of competition of late. This will mark the third consecutive week they'll have faced one of the current bottom three in VI's NFL power rankings. They've cruised, 65-14, through the first two.

There's a debate about whether the Chargers are truly elite or a product of their light schedule since their Week 2 upset of Seattle, but putting together another complete performance in a lopsided win would keep them right there with Denver atop the AFC.

Other teams capable of taking a major step forward include the Colts and Texans, who battle for AFC South supremacy on Thursday night, and the Patriots and Bills, who will vie for first in the AFC East on Sunday.

Buffalo has a new owner, a new quarterback and momentum thanks to the brilliance of its kicker Dan Carpenter, who capitalized on the ineptitude of now-dismissed counterpart Alex Henery in Detroit by helping to steal a result.

New England went out and quieted critics by humbling Cincinnati, but remains just 1-2 on the road. The Patriots have won the last five meetings between the long-time rivals, but Doug Marrone had some success against Bill Belichick in his first season, leading his NFL coaching debut until the final five seconds and hanging within a touchdown at Foxboro until the final minutes.

Given that Cincinnati and Baltimore both appear superior, Steelers-Browns has the feel of an AFC North elimination game. No, the loser won't have to leave the division, but they will probably be a safe bet to bring up the rear in 2014 based on what we've seen to date.

Following Monday night's meeting between the 49ers and Rams, every team will be just under or over one-third of the way through their schedule. The season is flying by.

Flash forward to where we'll be two months and expect a few things to be drastically different. Can't help but wonder what my reaction will be when reminded it was acceptable to call Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

Prescient or laughable? We'll have a lean by Monday morning.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 6.......

-- Vikings covered eight of last ten as a home underdog.

-- Texans are 3-8 vs spread in last eleven home games.

-- Cincinnati covered its last eleven home games.

-- Tampa Bay is 5-10 in last 15 non-divisional games.

-- Arizona covered six of last eight coming off a loss.

-- Jaguars covered six of last eight divisional road games.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in the NFL....

32) Raiders—When you have a ceremony on October 7 to symbolically bury a football during practice, to signal the season is starting over, well you get #32 on this list. If interim coach Tony Sparano wants this job full-time, he better get the most out of young QB Carr.

31) Jaguars—Have been better the last two weeks, but they’re 0-5 against the spread and winless on the field. Have a shot this week against Tennessee.

30) Titans—Speaking of which, they’ve lost four games in row, became first-ever home team to lose a game they led by 25+ points. Locker is hurt, Whitehurst isn’t the answer at QB. Will they play LSU rookie Mettenberger?

29) Jets— Rough week for OC Mornhinweg; his offense got blanked in San Diego, his son got beat up by a Florida Gator teammate after he accused the teammate of swiping a pair of cleats. Broncos come to town this week; think Geno can match points with that offense?

28) Rams-- Led 21-0 in first half of Game 3, lost 34-31. Trailed 34-7 in Game 4, lost 34-28. Haven’t had a winning season since they cut Kurt Warner 11 years ago. The Kurse of Kurt. He’ll be in the building Monday night when the ’99 champs are honored. Would be a good time to retire number 13, no?

8) 49ers—Survived visit from old friend Alex Smith, despite shaky performance in red zone. Slowly coming around.

7) Cowboys—Romo had to use silent count in his home stadium last week, because so many Texans fans bought up tickets. Good practice for this week’s visit to Seattle.

6) Bengals—Ran into a buzzsaw last week in Foxboro, they need to put it behind them and beat the Panthers this week. That’s what good teams do.

5) Patriots—You think Brady throws stuff at his TV every time Wes Welker catches a pass in Denver? Why don’t the Pats have better receivers?

4) Eagles—Offense isn’t same as it was last year; they miss DeSean Jackson, but 4-1 is 4-1 and only loss was at San Francisco. Kelly is a coaching pioneer; other teams are starting to mimic some of the unique stuff his teams do.

3) Broncos—I’d like to see an ESPN piece where they find Dick Butkus, Ronnie Lott and Jack Lambert, great defensive players. Ask them what their reaction would be if their team was losing 41-20 with 2:00 left and starting QB of the other team threw a pass on the first play after 2:00 warning. Curious what they would say.

2) Seahawks—Can’t remember the same player having three TDs called back by penalties in the same game, the way Percy Harvin did Monday night. Refs held Washington in the game for a long time, but Seattle was still good enough to win and cover the spread.

1) Chargers—Spanking teams right now and Rivers is on top of his game, despite using three different centers in five games and with several RBs out hurt. AFC West is going to be interesting.

[StarDust Bum]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail :-(( Not a GOOD DAY

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 11-*16-*1 40.74% -*3300 :-((


Rated Plays:

0 - 2.................................*****

4 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

2 - 5 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

1 - 1 ................................BLOW OUTS


Thursday, October 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:25 PM ET Houston +2.5 500 *****

Houston - Under 46.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail :-{{

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail :-{{

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail :-{{

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 11-*20-*1 35.48% -*5500 :-{{


Rated Plays:

0 - 4.................................*****

4 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

2 - 5 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

1 - 1 ................................BLOW OUTS