The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys' betting bandwagon as full as ever

Week 7 of the NFL season is highlighted by the rekindling of a traditional rivalry, with one team on the rise – the Dallas Cowboys – and the other mired in a mediocre fog -- the New York Giants.

Dallas (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is undergoing a completely unexpected resurgence, having won five in a row SU. On Sunday, the Cowboys were 10-point underdogs at Seattle, but pulled out a stunning 30-23 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

New York (3-3 SU and ATS) looked as if it had gotten its season back on track, winning three in a row SU and ATS, but the Giants got completely shut down Sunday night at Philadelphia, losing 27-0 as a 1-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, expects the game to attract a lot of betting attention, with two very public teams. He held off setting a firm line, to evaluate New York after its blowout loss Sunday, in which the Giants likely lost star wideout Victor Cruz for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
“We always have loads of action on this matchup,” Lester said. “The Cowboys are obviously coming off a big win, and their betting bandwagon is as full as ever. I’m envisioning at least a 4-point spread here.”

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

The Niners still have unfinished Week 6 business, playing in the Monday night game at St. Louis. San Fran (3-2 SU and ATS) bounced back from two consecutive SU and ATS losses to win and cover at home against Philadelphia and Kansas City.

The Broncos (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have covered two in a row, getting a late interception for a TD on Sunday to claim a 31-17 win laying 10 points against the host New York Jets.

“The Broncos didn’t peek ahead to this one, playing a complete game against the Jets,” Lester said. “If the Niners take care of business Monday night, we’ll probably make Denver around a 6-point favorite. This should be a good litmus test for both teams.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Two of the league’s rising young quarterbacks square off in a matchup of division leaders. Andrew Luck and Indy (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) will come in with a little extra rest, after traveling to Houston last Thursday and winning 33-28 as a 2.5-point road fave – the Colts’ fourth consecutive win and cover.

Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and Cincy (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)have cooled off after a 3-0 SU and ATS start, getting walloped on the road at New England, then settling for a 37-37 home tie Sunday against Carolina as a 7-point favorite.

“A lot of perceptions about these teams have changed over the last few weeks,” Lester said. “The Colts appear to be hitting their stride offensively, and Cincy’s defense has sprung some leaks. With extra time to prepare and being a great team in the dome, I wanted Indy a bit higher, but we settled at the key number (-3).”

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

It’s on the Monday night marquee, but these two middling franchises aren’t living up to that billing. Houston (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) has lost two in a row SU, including last Thursday’s 33-28 home setback as a 2.5-point ‘dog against Indianapolis.

The Steelers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) are much harder to explain. They lost at home earlier this season to hapless Tampa Bay, and they got smoked Sunday at Cleveland 31-10 catching 2.5 points.

“The casual bettor will be eager to side with the Steelers in this matchup. But that defense has certainly looked suspect the last couple of weeks,” Lester said. “The Texans can win this game if they run the ball well.”

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NFL Betting Recap - Week 6

October 12, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 6 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3-1
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-9-1
Against the Spread 3-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-4


NFL Overall Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 60-28-1
Against the Spread 46-40-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 49-39-1
Against the Spread 37-49-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 48-41


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Denver (-9.5) defeated the Jets, 31-17, as the Broncos cashed with a late interception return for a touchdown.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Dallas (+9.5) stunned Seattle, 30-23 to pick up its fifth consecutive win to own the best record in the NFC at 5-1. The Cowboys cashed on the money-line at +350 (Bet $100 to win $350).

Highway to Hell

Home teams were flat out awful in Week 6. How bad was it for the hosts? Only three home squads won as the Titans, Browns, and Cardinals each came out with victories, but Tennessee didn't cover as four-point favorites in a 16-14 win over Jacksonville. Overall, road teams put together a fantastic 9-3-1 SU and 10-3 ATS record in Week 6.


Saved by the Pick-Six

It was mentioned earlier about the Broncos taking back a late interception for a touchdown to cash against the Jets, but that wasn't the only front-door cover in the final minute. The Cardinals couldn't convert a first down against the Redskins in the last minute, leading Washington 23-20 as five-point favorites. Following a punt, Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six that gave Arizona a 30-20 victory to improve to 4-1 and give Cardinal backers a miracle cover.

Back in Business

The Lions, Patriots, Ravens, and Packers all won on the road to improve to 4-2. Detroit bounced back from last week's last-second loss to Buffalo by cruising past Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. New England doesn't look like the same team that got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago, as the Patriots' offense has woken up in wins over the Bengals and Bills. Sunday's 37-22 victory at Buffalo improved New England to 2-2 SU/ATS on the road and 1-1 inside the AFC East.

Baltimore pulled off the biggest rout in Week 6, manhandling Tampa Bay, 48-17 as three-point road favorites. Joe Flacco threw four touchdown passes...in the first quarter to give Baltimore a commanding 28-0 lead after 15 minutes. Green Bay needed a late rally to knock off Miami, 27-24 as 1.5-point road favorites, as the money came in on the Dolphins late in the week.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Denver -6.5 to Denver -9.5 (WIN)
Miami +3.5 to Miami +1.5 (LOSS)
Minnesota +1 to Minnesota -1 (LOSS)
Buffalo +3 to Buffalo +1 (LOSS)
Seattle -8 to Seattle -9.5 (LOSS)
Arizona -3 to Arizona -5 (WIN)
N.Y. Giants +3 to N.Y. Giants +1.5(LOSS)

All Knotted Up

It's fair to say we all hate ties in sports. Carolina and Cincinnati played an epic game at Paul Brown Stadium, but there was no winner as the two teams finished in a 34-34 tie. The Bengals had a chance to win the game with a field goal at the end of overtime, but missed it. Cincinnati's 11-game home regular season winning streak was snapped, while Carolina covered as seven-point road underdogs.

Committment to Awfulness

The Raiders were that close to winning their first game of the season, but couldn't hold onto a 28-21 fourth quarter lead as the Chargers rallied for 10 late points in a 31-28 victory at the Black Hole. Oakland managed to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs, but the Raiders fell to 0-5 on the season.

Let's not get Jacksonville off the hook when mentioning winless clubs, as the Jaguars still haven't won this season. The good news for the Jags is that they finally covered a game after going 0-5 ATS the first five weeks, but Jacksonville dropped a 16-14 decision at Tennessee as four-point 'dogs.

Totals

The 'over' cashed in nine of 13 games, including eight contests in which the winning team scored at least 30 points. Cleveland was the lone team to score over 30 points and not produce an 'over,' as the Browns drilled the 'under' for the first time this season.

The late interception returns in both the Broncos-Jets game and Redskins-Cardinals contest each clinched the 'over.'

The game with the highest total (56) never came close to being threatened, as the Bears beat the Falcons, 27-13. At halftime, the two teams combined for 16 points.

After seeing the 'under' cash in their first two road games, the Chargers exploded for 31 points and their first away 'over' on the season.

The Bucs started the season with consecutive 'unders,' but Tampa Bay has hit the 'over' in four straight games, while allowing at least 37 points three times in the past four weeks.

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Sportsbooks catch late breaks

October 13, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Bettors scored big wins on a pair of games on Sunday – one early and one late – that involved late interception returns for touchdowns to cover the spread. Other than that, Las Vegas sportsbooks did ok with Week 6 NFL betting results thanks mostly to a rally in the late games on Sunday.

According to Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, they were hurt early when Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib picked off a pass from New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith in the final minute and returned it 22 yards for the final score of the game. The Broncos won 31-17 on the TD scored with 15 seconds remaining to cover the 10-point closing line at The Wynn.

“The guy was actually down on the ground, and he got up and ran it in, which he didn’t have to do, but I guess he felt compelled to do,” Avello said. “The Denver game put us in a big hole early. Then after that, it was kind of grinding it out. The first six games weren’t that good.”

Avello said bettors won early on Sunday with the Cleveland Browns (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (+4), Chicago Bears (+3.5), Green Bay Packers (-2), Carolina Panthers (+7) and New England Patriots (-1). However, The Wynn won three of the four late games, including the Oakland Raiders (+7.5), Dallas Cowboys (+10) and Philadelphia Eagles (-1) on Sunday Night Football.

“In the afternoon games, we needed the Raiders to cover, which they did,” Avello said. “The Cowboys helped us out a lot, they knocked out a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers. That game was good. That game worked out real well for us. And the last game got bet all the way down to 1 (from -3). So three of the four afternoon games helped us out a lot.”

The one late game that did not help books was the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Washington Redskins. Before the game, Arizona announced Carson Palmer would start at QB for the first time since the season opener after rehabbing a shoulder injury. The line moved from the opener of Cardinals -3 to -6 at close, and they too got a late “pick 6” to turn a 23-20 win into a 30-20 victory and cover with 18 seconds left.

However, those cover-saving interceptions were not the only big plays to burn books at the end of NFL games on Sunday. A 4-yard touchdown pass from Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to tight end Andrew Quarless with three seconds remaining not only led them to a 27-24 road win over the Miami Dolphins, but it also provided a juicy middle opportunity to bettors who wagered both early and late.

“We opened (Green Bay) 3.5 even, so they took (Miami),” Avello said. “Then we’re at 3 most of the week, and then they take that. Then we go down to 2.5 and 2, and they lay that (with Green Bay). So therefore, you don’t win any money on a game like that. You lose the first bets, you lose the late bets, and you give back money in the middle there. Those games are not good.”

The Patriots also cost books despite the line moving in Buffalo’s favor from New England -3 to -1. Avello said the Pats were a very popular play on parlay and teaser cards. They covered easily in a 37-22 road victory.

“When you look at all the parlays on the game, they were in a lot of parlays and teasers,” Avello said. “So sometimes when the move happens like that, you get the wiseguys betting one way, you get the general public betting the other and using that team in all of the gimmicks. Even though we had Bills money, we had a lot of Patriots parlays and teasers going.”

In addition, Avello was a bit surprised the Monday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams had not generated much interest as of earlier in the day. Heading into the game, the 49ers were 8-1 against the spread in their previous nine MNF appearances and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine as road favorites.

“Throughout the week, that’s not a game people really focused on,” Avello said. “Sometimes they’ll take the Monday night game, and use that game in with others in parlays and teasers. But that game didn’t get used a lot this week. Right now, the action’s very minimal.”

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NFL: Pick-Six theme of Week 6

The pick-six gods giveth and taketh away.

There we were, Dinero disciples, poised to collect on an astute in-game parlay call taking advantage of having to lay less than normal because the Rams have backdoored the last few opponents and have terrific talent along their defensive front.

The 'under' looked like the easy part going in. Even down 14-0, you got the feeling the 49ers were going to get a handle on Rams and QB Austin Davis, rattling him out of his early rhythm. The Brandon Lloyd touchdown just before halftime swung the contest and set, but neither the outcome nor total was decided until the final minutes.

In the end, Week 6 was redundant. It should have called itself a cab after the second pick-six cover reversal. Just in case anyone hadn't paid attention, this silly set of NFL games repeated itself with another wild ending to settle scores among the betting public.

San Francisco should have been up by double-digits late long before it put the game away on rookie Dontae Johnson's game-clinching interception. Tight ends Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald ran into each other on a would-be touchdown, while Jim Harbaugh could've easily settled for three a instead of trying to punch it in. So, no, the under wasn't necessarily the right side based on the game's circumstances since the Rams got off to such a great start, but it was there to be had.

Less than one minute remained. The score read 24-17.

Blame is pointless. Davis was trying to make a play. Kenny Britt wasn't trying to get himself hurt making a tackle. Williams returning the pick for a score was inevitable once he got his hands on the ball.

Given how Sunday started, there were no tears to be shed over a missed two-teamer, especially since San Francisco -3 was guaranteed to come in after the interception. Teaser players still won. The Broncos and that over in New York against the Jets sprung to mind.

The pick-six gods were collecting promptly on the solid they pulled for many at Met Life Stadium.

Aqib Talib picked Geno Smith clean while dropping to the ground and could've stayed down, having sealed a Broncos' win. Getting up and high-stepping into the end zone was obviously more fun. The 31-17 result covered the 9.5-point spread and 47.5-point total, both of which I was on specifically because I expected Smith to contribute to Denver's scoring output. It hadn't happened all day, until his gift dropped when it mattered most.

There were 22 seconds on the clock when he delivered the ill-fated pass and 15 seconds on the clock when Brandon McManus added the extra point.

Floyd Mayweather picked up hundreds of thousands of dollars to add to his stockpile, having correctly bet the Broncos. MGM Mirage VP of Sports and Racing Jay Rood admitted to kicking a hole in the wall in his office, according to ESPN's David Payne Perdum.

That's the way the ball bounces, or in this case, gets carelessly heaved into a hungry secondary.

Outside of my picks pool, I wasn't affected by Kirk Cousins' contribution to Cardinals bettors. Liked the visitors to cover, since there was too much uncertainty regarding who Arizona's quarterback would be to lay a substantial amount of points.

Down three points, desperately looking to drive up field in one last gasp, Washington's quarterback found a corner wide open and allowed a sure cover to go up and smoke. Rashaud Johnson fielded the ball like a punt at the 29-yard-line since there was no one around him and darted towards the end zone, heading up the sideline. Guard Shaun Lauvao, an Arizona State product who would've ideally made the cover-saving tackle, took a bad angle, falling excruciatingly short. Tackle Trent Williams just missed clipping Johnson at the goal line.

I'd argue that's the interception that would've been most heart-wrenching to watch out of the three, but I'm sure each elicits it's own nauseating reaction if you lost on it.

When those breaks go against you, it means you weren't meant to cash the ticket. If all three did, you may want to take a week off or find a church somewhere.

It also probably means you've backed the wrong quarterback.

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Inside the Stats - Week 7

October 14, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

There’s a new team atop the college football leaderboard and strangely its name does not start with an ‘A’ or an ‘F’. It’s the upstart Mississippi State Bulldogs, winners of three straight games over Top 10 ranked opponents.

With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also honing in on last week’s football games.

Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 13, unless noted otherwise.

LEAKING OIL

It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three contests.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s vinegary favorites.

NCAAFB: Air Force, BYU, Cincinnati, Idaho, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Texas State, Tulsa and Utah.

NFL: No qualifying teams this week but note the following teams are riding serious ITS - In The Stats - losing streaks: Carolina (5), Houston (6), NY Jets (4) and Tampa Bay (6).

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

According to last week’s game stats there were an abundance of teams who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Appalachian State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Northwestern, Ohio, Texas and Texas A&M.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:

Alabama, Bowling Green, Duke, Minnesota, Mississippi and Oklahoma State.

There were no such teams in the NFL.

DOUBLE INSIDE OUT

From the bevy of phony ‘inside-out’ games last week, here the matchup of a positive stat loser facing a negative stat winner. The Stat winner is listed first:

NCAAFB: Texas A&M vs. Alabama, Northwestern vs. Nebraska and Ohio vs. Akron

NFL: Washington vs Tennessee

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Buffalo Bills are 21-2 ATS in games after facing the New England Patriots when facing a losing team.

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-0 SU and ATS in their 4th home game of the season when facing a division opponent.

The Carolina Panthers are 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge against NFC North teams.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-10 SU and ATS in Game Six of the season.

The Seattle Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in games after dueling with Dallas.

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 2-12-1 ATS at home off a SU win versus an opponent off a SU loss.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points in games off a SU double-digit loss versus an opponent off a SU loss.

.700 or greater NFL away teams who played to a tie the previous week (read: Cincinnati Bengals) are 0-5 SU and ATS.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 15-0 SU at home on Monday nights, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by 6 or more points.

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Patriots host struggling Jets

October 14, 2014


NEW YORK JETS (1-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2)
Kickoff: 8:25 p.m. EST
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: New England -9.5, Total: 46.5

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan.

In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game.

TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time.

Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets.

RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.

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Tech Trends - Week 7

October 15, 2014

Thursday, Oct. 16

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND...Rexy just 1-5 SU and vs. line TY. Belichick "over" trend resurfacing with "overs" last 3, now 48-21 "over" in reg. season since 2010. "Overs" 8-1 last nine meetings. "Over," based on 'totals" trends.


Sunday, Oct. 19

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS...Bengals 6-2-1 as away dog since 2012. Colts, however, now 5-1 vs. line TY after Houston win, and on 9-2 spread uptick since late 2013. Colts also "over" 6-1-1 last eight since late 2013. "Over" and Colts, based on team and "totals" trends

TENNESSEE at WASHINGTON...Teams combined 3-9 SU vs. line. Skins just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at home, but Tenn. no covers last 5 Y. Skins 7-15 vs. line last 22 on board. Slight to Titans, based on extended Skins spread woes.

MIAMI at CHICAGO...Early Dolphin trend to "over" (4-1) this season. Miami also 8-3 as dog since 2013 for Philbin. Bears 0-2 SU and vs. line at Solider Field TY and now 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Bears also "over" 15-6-1 for Trestman. "Over" and Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 1-5 vs. line. Also 1-8-1 last 10 as EverBank dog. But Gus won 32-28 at Cleveland LY. Brownies "over" 4-1 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS...Hawks are 8-3 SU their last 11 away from CenturyLink and are 11-3-1 vs. line last 15 away from Seattle. Carroll 27-13-2 vs. spread since 2012 and 6-2 vs. line last 8 after SU loss. Series "under" 7-1 last 8. Seahawks and "under," based on team and series "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY...Cam 9-2 as road dog since 2012 (2-1 TY) and "over" last 4 TY. Pack "over" 23-13 last 36 at home. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ATLANTA at BALTIMORE...Falcs 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY, now 1-10 SU and 2-9 vs. spread on road since LY. Flacco 9-4 vs. line last 13 at M&T Bank Stadium. Ravens also "over" 5-2 last eight at home. Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends

at MINNESOTA at BUFFALO...Bills 2-5 vs. spread last seven in game subsequent to facing Patriots. Slight to Vikings, based on recent Bills trends.
NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT...Saints 1-4 vs. line TY, no wins or covers first three on road and have now dropped nine straight spread decisions on reg.-season road (1-8 SU those games; does not count 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in playoffs road games LY). Lions "under" last 5 TY and 8 of 9 "under" since late 2013. Lions and "under," based on Saints road woes and "under" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Andy Reid now 10-1 vs. line on road in regular season since taking over Chiefs LY (3-0 TY). But Bolts 10-2 last 12 vs. spread (L vs. KC at end last season). "Overs" last four in series. "Over" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and series trends.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS...Jerry Jones has won last 5 SU and 4-1 vs. line in those, but 7-15 vs. spread last 22 as host. G-Men are 4-1 SU and vs. line in new Jerry Stadium and road team 7-3 vs. line last 10 in series. "Over" last three meetings. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at OAKLAND...Raiders 7-15-1 last 23 vs. mark at home. Arians 10-3-1 last 14 vs. line, 5-1 vs. line last 6 away. Cards, based on team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DENVER...Harbaugh 7-4-1 as dog with Niners. SF "under" 7-2 last 9 since late 2013, Denver 1-2 vs. line at home TY but still 13-5 as reg.-season home chalk since 2012 and Manning arrival. Slight to "under" and Broncos, based on "totals' and team trends.


Monday, Oct. 20

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH...Hou now 4-2 vs. line for O'Brien after Indy loss. Texans 2-1 vs. line away TY after 2-5-1 mark last season as visitor vs. number. Steel 0-2 vs. line as host TY, now also "over" 5-1 last six as host. "Over" and Texans, based on team and "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 16th

New York Jets at New England, 8:25 ET
NY Jets: 3-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
New England: 11-1 ATS off a division game


Sunday, Oct. 19th

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 11-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS in home games

Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 41-22 ATS in non-conference games
Washington: 30-48 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Miami at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Miami: 38-21 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Chicago: 6-15 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Cleveland at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-6 ATS off a home win
Jacksonville: 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Seattle at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 22-9 ATS against conference opponents
St Louis: 17-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points

Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Green Bay: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Atlanta at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season
Baltimore: 43-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Minnesota at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 57-36 OVER in weeks 5 through 9
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after playing a game at home

New Orelans at Detroit, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 2-9 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Detroit: 50-73 ATS as a favorite

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 28-48 ATS when they allow 400 or more total yards
San Diego: 58-30 ATS when their defense forces 2 turnovers

New York Giants at Dallas, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 49-29 ATS in road games off a division game
Dallas: 26-43 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Arizona at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 21-7 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game
Oakland: 48-70 ATS off a division game

San Francisco at Denver, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Monday, Oct. 20th

Houston at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Houston: 15-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 8-1 UNDER in October games

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NFL

Thursday, October 16

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Thursday Night Football: Jets at Patriots
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10, 44)

Looking like a team whose time had passed just a couple of weeks ago, the New England Patriots are back atop the AFC East and preparing to face an opponent they have dominated in recent years. The Patriots aim to pad their division lead when they host the New York Jets on Thursday. New England has won six of the past seven meetings, but New York claimed a 30-27 overtime win in last season's second showdown.

The Patriots were all but counted out after a 41-14 drubbing by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night in Week 4, but they've claimed two straight impressive victories, including a 37-22 win at Buffalo on Sunday to move to the top of the standings. While the Jets have lost five straight since a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, they gave defending AFC champion Denver a scare before falling 31-17 on Sunday. The Patriots have won 32 straight home games against AFC opponents, the longest streak since the NFL merger in 1970.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Patriots -9.5, the line has since shifted to -10 where it sits currently. The toal opened as 45, but has sinced dropped a point to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Jets - WR David Nelson (Ques-Ankle) Patriots - DL Dominique Easley (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Ques-Ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Rain is suppose to be hitting Gillette Stadium hard from Wednesday night straight through till kickoff. Rain is supposed to open up right around kickoff and dropping 15 mm of rain. Winds are expected to be blowing between five and six mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): New York ranks 30th in the league in total offense (303.3 yards per game) and last in passing (182.2) but coach Rex Ryan insists he is committed to second-year quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has thrown seven interceptions — at least one in every game — and has completed only 57.1 percent of his passes, so the Jets have leaned heavily on running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to power the offense. The Jets rank sixth in the league in total defense but 25th in scoring defense, largely because of unfavorable field position thanks to 12 giveaways.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): After a disastrous game against the Chiefs, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense have come back to life the past two games, though the loss of running back Stevan Ridley is a big one. Shane Vereen becomes the featured back with Ridley out, but Brady might have to go to the air more often. The Patriots lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin in large part because of an AFC-best seven interceptions and will try to force Smith into the type of poor decisions he is prone to make.

TRENDS:

*Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 14-3 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
*Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New England.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57.48 percent of users are backing the Patriots -10, with 64.14 percent taking the over.

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

-- Patriots covered eight of last 12 as a home favorite.

-- Saints failed to cover their last ten road games.

-- Bengals are 5-0-1 in last six games as a road underdog.

-- Green Bay covered once in last seven non-divisional games.

-- Falcons covered three of last eleven road games.

-- Jaguars are 4-14 vs spread in last 18 home games.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL..........

32) Raiders—You start a rookie QB and before his career is five games old, you fire his head coach? How is this anything but incompetent management?

31) Jaguars—They finally covered a spread this week, so there’s that. Jags have actually played better since Bortles has been the QB.

30) Jets—By not cutting Michael Vick after he admitted to not being prepared to play, it appears to me they’ve given up the ship. Vick was supposed to be a mentor of sorts for Geno Smith, but now it is obvious he is just stealing money. If I owned the Jets, I'd clean house on December 29, the day after the season ends.

29) Rams—Just win, baby. You are what you are and the Rams are 1-4, despite having runs of 21-0/21-0/14-0 in their last three games. There is talent here, but not much maturity and the upcoming schedule is tough.

28) Titans—They beat Jacksonville at home by 2. With Charlie Whitehurst under center. In my fantasy league, the best available WRs are mostly Titans, because no one trusts their QB’s to get them the ball.

8) Cardinals—Guy like Bruce Arians almost never got his chance to be an NFL head coach. Now that he has it in his early 60’s, he is making the most out of it. He is 14-7 as coach of the Redbirds, in a tough division.

7) Patriots—Injury to Mayo is big blow to a defense; injury to Ridley means that Brady will have to throw more. Can his OL protect him enough?

6) Colts—Won last four games after an 0-2 start, but four games with Titans/Jags won’t hurt either. Has any team ever had a more seamless transition from an all-time great at QB (Manning-to-Luck)?

5) Bengals—They visit Indy this week, are 0-1-1 since their bye/3-0 start. Lose this week and that missed 36-yard FG at end of Carolina game is going to hurt more and more.

4) Eagles—Chip Kelly is good for the NFL; he’s making other coaches think differently, which makes the game more interesting. How was this guy an assistant coach at New Hampshire for so long?

3) Cowboys—Cue the mute buttons for Sunday night highlight shows, if Dallas wins. “The NFL is better when the Cowboys are good”; that was said on TV Sunday night and Jerry Jones didn’t say it, a guy on ESPN did. I want to puke, but that’s how people think.

2) Broncos—How much $$ do you think Peyton Manning is worth? If a journeyman NBA player like Steve Kerr can donate $1M to U of Arizona, how much money must a megastar like Manning be worth?

1) Chargers—Last NFL QB to wear a number in the 20’s? John Hadl, who was at his best as a Charger in late 60’s/early 70’s, throwing to Lance Alworth. Hadl was later Steve Young’s coach in the USFL with the LA Express.

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

If it wasn't obvious before, quarterbacks are the most important position in football. Several line moves have supported this as bettors are bailing from teams with questionable QB situations this week.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills - Open: -5.5, Move: -4

After the three interception performance Teddy Bridgewater displayed last week, money hit the home faves early and often in this matchup. Despite the Bills losing three of their last four, Kyle Orton has proven to be a calming presence for the team since taking over the starting job.

"Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first start on the road, it’s going to be interesting to see how he handles a very good Bills defense in a foreign environment," Stewart explains.


Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins - Open: -4, Move: -6

Uncertainty has fueled the action in this one as it is still unknown whether QB Jake Locker or QB Charlie Whitehurst will get the start for the Titans on Sunday. In Whitehurst's last two starts he has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions, but the public is far from eager to back the 32-year old journeyman backup.

"With sharps and the public now on both sides of this game, no real need to move it for now," Stewart tells Covers. "We’re assuming Whitehurst will go for the Titans, but if Locker is announced the starting QB then expect this line to move back down to 4.5 or even 4."


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams - Open: +6.5, Move: +7.5

After opening at the Rams +6.5, it should come as no shock that it has since moved to +7.5. St. Louis was leading the 49ers 14-0 after the first quarter Monday night, then got promptly outscored 31-3.

"After the Rams got annihilated in the second half on Monday Night, we can’t imagine they’re going to draw much support going up against a Seahawks team off a tough loss last week," Stewart explains. "With nearly 85% of the action on the Seahawks...This will be the biggest decision of the weekend for us."


Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +4, Move: +6

With a running game that ranks first in the NFL and an offense that has given up a league low two turnovers, the Browns have captures the eyes of bettors. Across the field from the Browns are the winless Jaguars who have been abysmal straight-up and against the spread.

"After seeing how well this team played against the Steelers last week, the public is fully backing the Browns in this game. With over 75% of the early action on the favorite, I don’t see us going back down unless we see some sharp action on the homedog," says Stewart.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -5, Move: -6.5

The Cowboys went to Qwest Field last week and shocked the world by winning in Seattle, only the second team to do that since the start of the 2012 season. However, Dallas has only gone 1-2 against the spread at home this season.

"As well as the Cowboys are playing, they have little to no home field advantage playing in Jerry’s World and their last home game QB Tony Romo had to go to a silent count because their was so much crowd noise against them," Stewart tells Covers.

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October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 26-*33-*1 44.07% -*5150

Rated Plays:

2 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

6 - 11 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

2 - 2 ................................BLOW OUTS



Thursday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount


N.Y. Jets - 8:25 PM ET New England -10 500 GRAND SLAM ( DBABPT = DON'T BET AGANIST BRADY ON PRIME TIME )

New England - Under 44 500 TRIPLE PLAY

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October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 26-*35-*1 42.62% -*6250

Rated Plays:

2 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

6 - 12 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

2 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS

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Sharp Moves - Week 7

October 16, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 7!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday night.

(Rotation #460) St. Louis +7 – Though there has been some line movement in the direction of the Seahawks, it certainly doesn't warrant the stunning 90 percent of the bets which have come in on Seattle this week. The Rams just haven't played to their best this year, but this is a team which always plays at a really high level in these divisional games. Heck, St. Louis is just six days removed from being up two touchdowns on the San Francisco 49ers. Many just make the assumption that the Seahawks are going to come out angry about their loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys and whoop up on a suspect team, but this is a heck of a lot of points to be giving a team that’s generally is tough to blow out; especially in its own house.

Opening Line: St. Louis +6.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 90% on Seattle

(Rotation #468) Detroit -3 – A rare situation where a home team and a favored team is sharp for sure. For some reason, bettors still believe in the Saints even though TE Jimmy Graham is out of the lineup, handicapping QB Drew Brees by taking away his favorite target. The Lions are getting healthy, though they are still without WR Calvin Johnson, and most believe that the Detroit offense begins and ends with Megatron. There's some merit to that for sure, but this is basically going to be the fourth game without Megatron out there, and there is some talent to be had in Motown. It's the Detroit defense which has our eye though, as this defensive line is one of the best in the league. The Lions have the better of these two teams, but neither the betting line nor the reaction from the general public suggests that to be the case.

Opening Line: Detroit -2.5
Current Line: Detroit -3
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on New Orleans

(Rotation #474) Oakland +3.5 – The Raiders are once again on our list of sharp picks for the third straight week, and this is probably as sharp a play as we’ve seen all year long. Sharp bettors have been losing, but they’re playing the percentages and lining up to bet against an Arizona team which is overrated at 4-1. The Raiders should have won last week against San Diego, but stupid mistakes cost them in the end. Those dumb mistakes will work themselves out week after week, and in the end, Oakland is ultimately going to win games like these more often than not. In Sparano we trust!

Opening Line: Oakland +4
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 84% on Arizona

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Week 7 Tip Sheet

October 17, 2014

Bengals at Colts (-3, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Cincinnati’s 11-game regular season home winning streak came to a halt in a 37-37 tie against Carolina, as the Bengals failed to cover as seven-point favorites. The Bengals are winless in the last two games following a 3-0 start, allowing 80 points against the Patriots and Panthers after giving up just 33 points in the first three weeks.
-- The Colts improved to 3-0 in AFC South play after holding off the Texans, 33-28 as 2 ½-point road favorites to win and cover for the fourth straight game. Indianapolis put things on cruise control after grabbing a 24-0 lead in the first quarter at Houston, while Andrew Luck eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the fifth time in six games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals ripped up the Colts last December at home, 42-28 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead, as the Bengals overcame four touchdown passes by Luck to improve to 9-4 on the season. The home team has won each of the past five matchups, as Andy Dalton is 2-0 in his career against Indianapolis.

What to watch for: The Colts have been a terrific ‘over’ team, hitting in five of six games, including a 2-1 ‘over’ mark at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, Indianapolis owns an average 5-5 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2013 season. The Bengals have put together a 6-2 ATS mark since the middle of 2012 following a loss/tie, but five of those covers came at home.

Panthers at Packers (-7, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Panthers forged a 37-37 tie with the Bengals, as no team led by more than seven points in the game. Carolina grabbed the cover as seven-point underdogs, improving to 2-1 ATS on the highway. However, the Panthers remained winless against AFC North foes this season (0-2-1 SU), while allowing at least 37 points in each interconference contest.
-- The Packers rallied past the Dolphins, 27-24 on a late touchdown pass by Aaron Rodgers to lift Green Bay to its third straight win. After the line dropped from three to 1 ½, bettors that waited until Sunday won with the Packers, as Green Bay has won each of its past two road games since an 0-2 start away from Lambeau Field.

Previous meeting: Green Bay held off Carolina as 10 ½-point road favorites in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 30-23. Cam Newton made his Panthers’ home debut by throwing for 432 yards, but was intercepted three times. Carolina managed the cover with a late touchdown run by Newton, as the Panthers blew an early 13-0 lead. The Panthers won in their past visit to Lambeau Field in 2008 by outlasting the Packers, 35-31.

What to watch for: The Packers own a strong 9-1 SU/ATS record in the last 10 games as a home favorite started and ended by Aaron Rodgers (taking away the game he was injured in the first quarter against Chicago last season). Carolina has compiled a 9-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog since 2012, while going ‘under’ the total in five of the past seven away contests.

Saints at Lions (-3, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- New Orleans returns from the bye week following a dramatic comeback against Tampa Bay in Week 5, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Saints saved many “suicide pool” contestants by erasing a 31-20 deficit to beat the Bucs in overtime, 37-31, overcoming three interceptions by Drew Brees to win just their second game of the season.
-- The Lions continue to play terrific defense, allowing 17 points or fewer for the fifth time in six games as Detroit took care of Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. Detroit’s defense picked off Teddy Bridgewater three times, while the Lions improved to 2-0 in NFC North action.

Previous meeting: The Saints eliminated the Lions in the Wild Card round of the 2011 playoffs at the Superdome, 45-28 as 10 ½-point favorites. Brees torched the Lions for 466 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Saints have won each of the last four meetings with Detroit by double-digits each. New Orleans makes its first trip to Ford Field since late in the 2008 season, when the Saints left with a 42-7 blowout of the Lions.

What to watch for: Since going ‘over’ in their opener, Detroit has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight games, but hasn’t scored more than 19 points in each of its past two home contests. The Saints are listed as an underdog for the first time this season (1-4 ATS), while going 3-3 ATS last season when receiving points (2-0 ATS in playoffs).

Chiefs at Chargers (-4, 45) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Kansas City is fresh off the bye as it heads back to the West Coast after dropping a 22-17 decision at San Francisco in Week 5 as 4 ½-point ‘dogs. The Chiefs racked up just 265 yards offensively in quarterback Alex Smith’s return to San Francisco, as Kansas City failed to score a point in the final 27 minutes of regulation after taking a 17-13 third quarter lead.
-- The Chargers won their fifth consecutive game after rallying late at Oakland, 31-28. San Diego failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites, the first ATS loss for the Lightning Bolts this season in six tries. The Chargers have eclipsed the 30-point mark in three straight contests and four times in six games.

Previous meeting: San Diego swept the season series in 2013 by winning each game by three points each. The Chargers outlasted the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium as short ‘dogs, 41-38, then clinched a playoff berth in Week 17 in overtime, 27-24, even though Kansas City covered as 15 ½-point underdogs with many of their starters out. The Chiefs have lost six straight visits to Qualcomm Stadium, with the last victory coming in 2007 as 12-point underdogs.

What to watch for: The Chargers have covered five of their past six home games dating back to last season, while cashing the ‘over’ in four of the last six home contests against divisional foes (one ‘under’ closed at 56 against Denver). In Andy Reid’s career coaching the Eagles and Chiefs, he has won 13 of 15 games off the bye week, but one of those losses came in Reid’s debut season of 2013 against the Broncos.

Giants at Cowboys (-6 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Giants put together an effort to forget in a 27-0 rout at the hands of the Eagles, while losing top receiver Victor Cruz for the season with a right knee injury. New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt, as all three losses for the Giants this season have come by double-digits.
-- The Cowboys keep cruising along, grabbing their fifth consecutive victory in a 30-23 upset at Seattle as 10-point underdogs to improve to 3-0 on the highway. What made this win even more impressive for Dallas was overcoming a 10-0 deficit against a team that had lost one home game since the start of 2012 prior to last Sunday.

Previous meeting: Dallas took both matchups from New York last season, including a 36-31 shootout victory in the season opener. That victory by the Cowboys snapped a four-game home losing streak to the Giants that dated back to 2009, as the last five contests played in Dallas have sailed ‘over’ the total.

What to watch for: Following a three-year stretch in which the Cowboys put together a dreadful 3-16 ATS record as a home favorite from 2010-2012, Dallas has somewhat improved in that role since 2013 with a 3-4 ATS mark. One of those non-covers came in a Week 5 overtime victory over Houston, while going 3-5 SU/ATS in the past eight home games against division foes. The Giants used to be a strong play as a road underdog (9-3-1 ATS from 2011-12), but New York owns a below average 4-5 ATS mark in this role since 2013.