The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

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Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:30 PM EDT

477 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7 +02 -7 +01 / -7 -05 / -7 -7 -15 -350

478 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 45.5 46 / 45.5 / 45 45.5 +290

WAS-QB-Robert Griffin III-OUT | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOUTH WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 63, RH 58%

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday.....

13) Panthers 31, Bears 24-- Chicago turned ball over on its last three possessions, all inside its own 35, as they blew a 21-7 lead, with 21 of 31 Carolina points coming in last 5:00 of each half. Panthers also ran a punt back for a TD.

12) Browns 29, Titans 28-- Cleveland won after trailing 28-3; they scored first TD with 0:12 left in first half, starting biggest comeback ever by an NFL road team. All three Browns' games have been decided in last 1:09. Jake Locker got hurt, Tennessee had only one QB for rest of the game. NFL teams need to be able to dress a 3rd QB for every game, for emergencies-- would make the game better.

Titans went for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 44 with 3:08 left, when they led by six points. With a backup QB who doesn't run. It didn't turn out well.

11) Eagles 34, Rams 28-- Jeff Fisher inherited a dumpster fire from his incompetent predecessor; in 2+ years since, he's upgraded the talent base, but now his team is so young, they constantly make stupid mistakes and shoot themselves in the foot. So far this season, Rams have 305 penalty yards; their opponents have 105.

10) Giants 30, Falcons 20-- Matt Ryan has now lost his last nine outdoor games; he was 2-of-8 for 44 yards and an interception on throws 15+ yards downfield, no bueno. Giants have won three in row after an 0-2 start, but Manning still looks uncomfortable moving out of pocket. Big game in Philly Thursday.

9) Saints 37, Buccaneers 31 OT-- Home side won all five Saint games so far; Bucs led 31-20 with 10:00 left, but Brees threw for 371 yards and Tampa had 113 yards in penalties. Saints ran 86 plays for 511 yards; it is very rare for an NFL team to have 86 snaps in one game.

8) Cowboys 20, Texans 17 OT-- Dallas ran the ball on 22 of 32 first down plays in this game, with Murray gaining 93 of his 136 yards on 1st down. Underdogs are now 26-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era; he is 6-21 as a home favorite. TV networks have to be thrilled that public favorite Cowboys are 4-1.

7) Bills 17, Lions 14-- Buffalo players carried DC Schwartz (former Lion HC) off on shoulders after this win; Lions were just 1-11 on 3rd down, were outgained by 80 yards in Orton's first start as Buffalo QB. Detroit led 14-0 early after a defensive TD, but offense was held scoreless by Schwartz' defense for last three quarters, due to three missed FGs by Detroit kicker Henery, who might not be the kicker by the time you read this.

6) Colts 20, Ravens 13-- Indy outgained Ravens 422-287, Baltimore was just 1-11 on third down. Score could've been bigger had Colts not turned ball over twice in red zone- they had 12-yard edge in field position. Thru first four weeks, there had been 90 defensive holding calls; thru four weeks in 2013, there had been 38.

5) Steelers 17, Jaguars 9-- Pittsburgh had been 0-8 vs spread in last eight tries as road favorite of 6+ points; McCain's pick-6 with 11:32 left provided final margin of victory. Jaguars are now 0-5 vs spread, but they have showed some life in last two games. Hard to win playing a rookie QB.

4) Broncos 41, Cardinals 20-- Arizona rookie QB Thomas made NFL debut; weird stat line, going 1-8 passing, with only completion an 81-yard TD to Ellington. Now Arizona could be down to #3 QB, and they've already had their bye. You knew the bye would help Denver, now that Welker is back on board.

3) 49ers 22, Chiefs 17-- Candlestick was tough place to kick, but Dawson booted five FGs, as Levi's Field is more kicker-friendly. as Niners pulled off a fake punt on the drive where they went ahead 17-16. When a team kicks five FGs it means their offense is struggling in red zone.

2) Chargers 31, Jets 0-- Total yardage: 439-151. Jets' longest play was 13 yards; they played 34-year Vick at QB in second half. Talk radio in NYC should be lot of fun Monday. San Diego might be best team in NFL so far. If I owned the Jets, I'd ask my GM why we never have good receivers, as in, ever?

1) Patriots 43, Bengals 17-- Cincinnati was in wrong place at wrong time Sunday; this will be best game Pats play all year. NE ran ball for 220 yards; Bengals were 0-7 on third down, lost three fumbles. If they play in January, Bengals will win.

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NFL

Monday, October 6


Bills hold down Lions' offense, are NFL's best under play

The Buffalo Bills were able to contain the Detroit Lions offense and comeback for a big road win, making them the NFL's best under team.

The Bills, led by Kyle Orton in his first start, secured the 17-14 win on a 58-yard field goal by Dan Carpenter with nine seconds left, putting them at 0-5 over/under on the season.

Buffalo has the 28th ranked offense in points for and are fifth in points against, a perfect recipe for an under team. They host the New England Patriots in Week 6.


Browns continue over run thanks to comeback

The Cleveland Browns are the best over play in the NFL this season after an epic comeback win over the Tennessee Titans Sunday.

The Browns, who were down 28-3 at one point, scored 26 consecutive points to send the game to send the game over the total that closed at 44.5.

Cleveland is now 4-0 over/under and are the only team that hasn't gone under a total so far this season.


Hapless Jaguars still winless ATS

The Jacksonville Jaguars put up a fight against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a late Blake Bortles interception that was returned for a touchdown doomed the Jags and their hopes for their first win and cover of the season.

With the 17-9 loss, the Jaguars are the worst bet in the NFL at 0-5 against the spread so far this season. Jacksonville travels to Tennessee to take on the Titans in Week 6, where the line is currently off the board.


Tom Brady improves to 9-2 ATS as home dog

With Sunday's 43-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have now improved to 9-2 against the spread as home underdogs in the Brady-Bill Belichick era.

The Patriots closed as 2.5-point home dogs - just the 11th time in the Brady-Belichick era that the Pats have been home dogs - Sunday night. The Pats went in off an embarrassing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Bengals were the darlings of the league at 3-0 straight up and ATS.

Prior to the Sunday nighter, the last time the Pats were home dogs (not including Matt Cassel starts) was Nov. 13, 2005 when the Indianapolis Colts were 4.5-point road faves.

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NFL

Monday, October 6


Seahawks trending Under vs. NFC teams

The Seattle Seahawks have been a fantastic Under play against NFC teams, as seven of their last eight games versus the conference have gone Under the total.

The reigning Super Bowl champions travel to D.C. for a date with the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football action.

The Seahawks are currently 7.5-point road faves with a total of 45.


Seattle covering with ease on grass fields

Grass surfaces have equated to easy covers for Seattle Seahawks backers. In the Seahawks' previous eight games played on the natural surface, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread.

That's a trend their spread backers will hope continues when they take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field (a grass field) Monday.

Seattle is presently 7.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 45 for the contest.

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NFL

Monday, October 6


Home favorites have solid day on gridiron

It was a good day to be backing home favorites against the spread in the NFL this Sunday.

Home favorites went 7-3 ATS in Week 5, good for a success rate pf 70 percent. The solid day improved home favorites record to 27-27-1 ATS, coming in at just under 51 percent or the season.

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NFL

Monday, October 6

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Monday Night Football: Seahawks at Redskins
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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 45)

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday night. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on Nov. 27, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on Sept. 20, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week 2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week 3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Seahawks as 7-point road faves, but are now -7.5. The total opened at 46 and dropped to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, ribs). Redskins - DB Trenton Robinson (Questionable, ankle), LB Akeem Jordan (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), TE Niles Paul (Questionable, concussion).

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.75) + Redskins (3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7.75

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the NFL with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last eight vs. NFC

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Seahawks.

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Monday, October 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:30 PM ET Washington +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Washington - Over 45.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail :-((

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 11-*18-*1 37.93% -*4400 :-((


Rated Plays:

0 - 2.................................*****

4 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

2 - 5 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

1 - 1 ................................BLOW OUTS

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Betting Recap - Week 5

October 5, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 5 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-2
Against the Spread 9-4-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 8-6-2
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8


NFL Overall Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 50-25
Against the Spread 38-34-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 46-29
Against the Spread 34-38-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 39-36


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Green Bay (-9.5) defeated Minnesota 42-10 in wire-to-wire fashion on Thursday night.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Buffalo (+4.5) rallied from a 14-3 deficit to defeat Detroit 17-14 on a 58-yard field goal from Dan Carpenter. The Bills cashed on the money-line at +190 (Bet $100 to win $190).

The Buccaneers were the biggest underdogs (+11) to cover as they fell to the Saints 37-31 in overtime. Tampa Bay held a 31-20 lead early in the fourth quarter.

All About the Chalk

The ‘chalk’ lived up to their expectations in Week 5 as favorites posted a 12-2 straight up record. Against the spread, the favorites produced an 8-4-2 mark versus the number.

The two underdogs that won and failed to cover were the Saints and Cowboys, coincidentally both those teams needed overtime to capture victories. Our closing numbers had Cleveland (-1) and San Francisco (-5) end us as pushes in their wins against Tennessee and Kansas City respectively.

San Diego improved to 5-0 ATS with its 31-0 thrashing of the New York Jets at home.

Teaser Pleasers

From our friends at William Hill, there were a lot of early winners on their Teaser Parlay Card with seven of the first nine point-spreads ended in a middle, which means both sides won. Through the first 13 games, nine were decided by eight points or less.

Collapses

The Bears, Buccaneers, Lions, Falcons and Titans had two things in common on Sunday. They all had double-digit leads at one point in their game and they all wound up losing.

Tennessee stands out as the biggest loser of the bunch. The Titans led 28-3 at halftime before the Browns closed the game by scoring 26 unanswered points. The win snapped a seven-game road losing streak for Cleveland.

Runner-up goes to Detroit, who led Buffalo 14-3 at halftime. The Lions didn’t have the services of All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson in the final two quarters and it showed. Detroit was blanked in the second-half and most of the blame is being pointed at kicker Alex Henery, who missed all three of his field goal attempts. On the other side of the field, Buffalo’s Dan Carpenter went 3-of-4 with his foot, which included a 58-yard game winner.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Chicago +3 to Chicago +1.5 (LOSS)
Cleveland +3 to Cleveland -1 (PUSH)
St. Louis +7 to St. Louis +3.5 (LOSS)
Dallas +5 to Dallas -6 (LOSS)
Buffalo +6 to Buffalo +4 (WIN)
Baltimore +3.5 to Baltimore +2.5 (LOSS)
Kansas City +6.5 to Kansas City +5 (PUSH)
N.Y. Jets +7 to N.Y. Jets +6 (LOSS)
Cincinnati -1.5 to Cincinnati -3 (LOSS)

No Unbeatens Left

Arizona and Cincinnati entered Week 5 as the only remaining unbeaten clubs. The Cardinals put up a solid fight early but couldn’t withstand the offensive punch of the Broncos. Denver finished closed the game on a 17-0 scoring run and ended up with a 41-20 win. This was the first ATS win of the season for the Broncos and also the first time bettors witnessed the Denver-Over combination that the betting public loves to bang. The Bengals didn't come to play in their SNF affair at New England and the Patriots blasted them 43-17.

Still Winless (0-5)

The Jaguars remained winless on Sunday after the club fell to the Steelers 17-9 at home. Jacksonville trailed 10-9 in the fourth quarter but were upended when rookie quarterback Blake Bortles was intercepted for a touchdown. The Jaguars failed to cover as six-point home underdogs and are now 0-5 both straight up and against the spread this season. In Week 6, Jacksonville will meet AFC South foe Tennessee on the road. Oddsmakers have installed the Titans as six-point home favorites.

Totals

Despite a couple shootouts in the early games, the ‘under’ produced a 5-4 record and most of the results were clear-cut too. Some savvy bettors may’ve cashed a middle ticket on the Falcons-Giants matchup. The game opened 49 and closed at 50.5 at most betting shops. New York had a chance to score a late touchdown but settled for a field goal and 30-20 victory. Atlanta led this game 20-10 midway through the third quarter but was held scoreless over its final four drives. Including the late games and Thursday’s outcome, the ‘over/under’ has gone 7-7 through the first 14 games of Week 5.

The 'over' has gone 13-3 in prime-time games this season, after the Seahawks-Redskins game just barely went under.

After today’s win, the Browns have now seen the ‘over’ cash in all four of their games.

The Jaguars and Colts both saw the ‘under’ cash for the first time this season.

The Bills have watched the ‘under’ go 5-0 in its first five games.

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Favorites cash in Week 5

October 6, 2014

The New England Patriots were just one of two underdogs to win straight-up in Sunday’s Week 5 NFL betting action, and they were the only one who helped sportsbooks with a decisive 43-17 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots needed to come through and make a statement to prove they are still legitimate playoff contenders, and that’s exactly what they did in knocking off the league’s last unbeaten team in the Bengals as 2.5-point home dogs.

“I thought that line was a little out of whack,” said Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations. “I mean it’s easy to say after the fact, but I thought the line was wrong. This Cincinnati team, I like them, they’re a good team, good offensive weapons. But anytime you’re getting the Patriots with points (at home), it’s got to be a double-up, don’t you think?

“There was some moneyline (on New England), we were trying to attract that. But we didn’t have to give too much away. People were saying that if they were going to be within the two, they were probably going to win the game.”

That they did, and the team the Patriots play next week just happened to be the other underdog to win in Week 5. The Buffalo Bills topped the Detroit Lions 17-14 as 4.5-point road dogs with new starting quarterback Kyle Orton leading the way. However, bettors were all over the Bills, moving the line down 2.5 points from the opening number of Detroit -7.

“I know we were heavy on the Bills,” said Avello.

New England opened as a 3-point road favorite at Buffalo next week. The Patriots have won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the AFC East teams, but they are just 2-7 against the spread in their past nine games as road chalk. They are also 0-4 ATS in their past four away from home vs. divisional opponents, losing three of those SU.

A couple other NFC teams could have helped the books out by losing, but big public teams failing to cover the spread still busted parlay cards and allowed them to make some money off bettors. The New Orleans Saints needed overtime to top the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-31 as 11-point home favorites while the Dallas Cowboys also had to go to OT to beat the Houston Texans 20-17 as six-point home chalk.

“The Saints game wasn’t bad,” Avello said. “It could have been a lot better if they would have lost the game straight-up. Dallas game was ok, balanced on that. The Cowboys continue to play okay.”

One game that did not turn out okay for the books was the Denver Broncos blowing out the Arizona Cardinals 41-20 as 8.5-point home favorites. The betting public loved the Broncos to hand the Cardinals their first loss, moving the line a full point from the opener of Denver -7.5.

But bettors got some help in the second half of that game when Arizona starting quarterback Drew Stanton was forced to leave with a concussion. The Cardinals actually pulled within 24-20 with 3:03 left in the third quarter when Stanton’s replacement Logan Thomas found running back Andre Ellington on a lucky short pass play that turned into an 81-yard touchdown thanks to Ellington’s fancy footwork.

The rookie Thomas – who entered the season as the third-stringer behind Stanton and injured Week 1 starter Carson Palmer – did not play well the rest of the way and helped Bronco backers beat the books. Denver QB Peyton Manning earlier topped the 50,000-yard passing plateau and was left with too much time and too many possessions to get his team an easy 17 fourth-quarter points and cover the spread for the first time this season.

“They lost the second string and then the third string just was lost,” Avello said of Thomas. “They never had a chance with the third string. You can’t make lines on things that could possibly happen in the game. You can’t make lines on that.”

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Harbaugh, 49ers CEO have 'real good talk'

October 6, 2014



SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - San Francisco 49ers CEO Jed York stopped by Jim Harbaugh's office Monday morning, and the coach said the two had a ''real good talk'' about the direction of the franchise.

Harbaugh called the meeting a ''typical'' conversation, though nothing surrounding the 49ers coach seems to be typical these days. He said both expressed appreciation for the job they're doing and the team is moving forward as usual in preparation for next Monday night's game at St. Louis.

''Everybody in the organization is doing their job, everybody is working hard at the craft of helping us be the best we can possibly be as a football team, and that's all you can ask of anybody,'' Harbaugh said. ''They're doing their best, and nobody appreciates that like I do. I know that's what Jed appreciates. We work at the pleasure of the York family and the San Francisco 49ers organization, and that's our job - do the best we possibly can. And I see everybody doing that.''

The drama involving Harbaugh bubbled up again last week.

NFL commentators and former players Deion Sanders and Trent Dilfer were among those that said Harbaugh had lost the locker room and the trust of his players. Another report questioned whether Harbaugh would be back with the 49ers next season.

York finally broke his silence on the topic, taking to Twitter before San Francisco's 22-17 win over Kansas City on Sunday to try to quiet the latest fuss about Harbaugh's future. York posted: ''Jim is my coach. We are trying to win a SB (Super Bowl), not a personality or popularity contest. Any more questions?''

Many players also publicly backed Harbaugh and dismissed discussion that there's friction between the coach and the locker room. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's comments echoed loudest.

''I love Coach Harbaugh. I'd go to war with him any day of the week,'' Kaepernick said. ''He's a competitor, he wants to win and he's going to do anything to put this team in a position to win.''

Harbaugh is in the fourth season of a $25 million, five-year contract he signed in January 2011 when he left a successful stint at Stanford to become the 49ers coach.

York said last year he hoped to get a new deal done for Harbaugh during the offseason, but that didn't happen. Instead, reports surfaced that the Cleveland Browns inquired about trading for Harbaugh.

Harbaugh has continued to describe his relationship with York, general manager Trent Baalke and the front office as ''very good.'' He praised his players again Monday, saying anybody questioning whether there's an issue with the team only needs to look at the effort the 49ers (3-2) have put forth while winning the past two games.

''It's an enjoyable team to be around. The way they play, the way they fight, the way they play together,'' Harbaugh said. ''My dad mentioned it when he was here for two weeks, the feeling he had for our team and how they interact, but the evidence is how they play. That's a team that plays.''

In an interview on the ''Rich Eisen Show'' on DirecTV on Monday, York acknowledged that Harbaugh has a difficult personality and his competitive attitude ''sometimes rubs people the wrong way.''

When asked if he was aware that his temperament can bother some in the organization, Harbaugh responded: ''No. Not so much.''

However he does it, Harbaugh's way wins.

In his first season, Harbaugh earned NFL Coach of the Year honors while leading the 49ers back to the playoffs following an eight-year stretch without a playoff berth or winning record. San Francisco lost in the NFC championship game that season to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

Harbaugh followed that up by coaching the 49ers to their first Super Bowl appearance in 18 years, but San Francisco missed out on the franchise's sixth championship by losing to his brother John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers went back to the NFC championship game last season, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

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Bears announce NFL draft in Chicago in 2015

October 2, 2014


NEW YORK (AP) - The 2015 NFL draft will be held in Chicago, the league announced Thursday.

Hours after the Bears posted an announcement on their Twitter account, the NFL confirmed the draft will move to Chicago on April 30-May 2. It will be held Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University.

The draft was held in Chicago in 1938, 1942-44, 1951, and 1962-64.

''Chicago is pleased to welcome the 2015 NFL draft to America's heartland,'' said Mayor Emanuel. ''Next year, NFL fans from across the country will travel here or tune in as the future of their team is decided in Chicago.''

Moving the draft out of New York, where it has been held for decades, was likely once the league began taking bids for the event. Los Angeles and Chicago were the finalists for next year's event.

The NFL soured on Radio City Music Hall after it was forced to move the draft back two weeks into May this year. But under Commissioner Roger Goodell, the league also has considered moving around the draft for a while.

''We are excited to have fans from throughout the Midwest experience the NFL draft,'' said Goodell. ''We look forward to returning the event to the city of Chicago and working with the city, Choose Chicago, and the Chicago Sports Commission to create a week-long celebration of football for our fans.''

The Auditorium Theatre opened in 1889 and has hosted operas, concerts, musicals and ballets. Presidents Theodore Roosevelt and William McKinley gave speeches at the theatre.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six QBs taken before Tom Brady in the 2000 NFL Draft........

-- Chad Pennington 1st round, NYJ-- 44-37 record as a starter; 17,813 yards.

-- Giovanni Carmazzi, 3rd, SF-- Never played in an NFL game. Played some in NFL Europe and some with Calgary and BC in the CFL.

-- Chris Redman, 3rd, Balt-- 4-9 as starter. 3,179 yards. Lasted eight years.

-- Tee Martin, 5th, Pitt-- 3 games, no starts. 6-16 for 69 yards.

-- Marc Bulger, 6th, NO-- 36-24 in his first 60 starts, 5-30 in his last 35. Martz chose him over Kurt Warner; Rams haven't recovered in decade since.

-- Spergon Wynn, 6th Clev-- 0-3 as starter. Completed 46.1% of passes for 585 yards. Where is the genius who took Wynn over Brady?

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Friend of mine who played a ton of football in his life had this comment about Peyton Manning throwing the ball with a 41-20 lead at the 2:00 warning Sunday: “If you don’t like it, play harder.” I defer to his opinion, seeing as he knows more football than anyone I know, and is an Arizona Cardinal fan.

12) Broncos saved $3.25M on next year’s salary cap by dumping kicker Prater now; they also had to give Giants a 7th-round draft pick for Brandon McManus, their new kicker. Had they cut McManus, Giants would’ve gotten bupkus, but they dealt McManus to Denver because they thought the Eagles were going to sign him if he was available and they didn’t want that.

11) Detroit Lions are 4-12 on field goals this year (0-6 from 40-49 yards) and they play home games in a dome; they should’ve signed Prater before this even gets posted. We’ll see.

10) Cal 60, Washington State 59— Wazzu QB Connor Halliday was 49-74 for a I-A record 734 yards passing late Saturday, but the Coogs lost when they missed a 19-yard FG at the gun. How do you gain over 800 yards in regulation and lose?

Cal ran two kicks bad for TDs in this game; Washington State fired its special teams coach on Monday- the defensive coordinator was spared.

9) Florida 10, Tennessee 9—This game was painful to watch, like watching two tired, drunken fighters try to land a haymaker on the other. Tennessee has an excuse, they’re a very young team. Florida is just ugly to watch and now that QB Murphy has been accused in an off-field incident, they might be even worse moving forward. SEC is not deep at all at quarterback.

8) Thru five games, Eagles have 11 offensive TDs and seven return TDs. Lot of teams don’t get seven return TDs in an entire season. Philly blocked punt for a TD on opponents’ first possession in each of their last two games.

7) This from Manish Mehta of New York Daily News, written before Sunday’s debacle in San Diego:

“(Jets GM John) Idzik works under rolling deadlines, apparently immune or oblivious to the realities of frustrated PSL owners doling out big money for a diminished product. The Jets have the sixth-highest average non-premium ticket price in the NFL ($105.66), 25% more than the league average ($84.43), according to teammarketingreport.com, yet the team has the lowest cash payroll ($95.2 million), according to spotrac.com.”

6) Syracuse lost its last three games to Maryland-Notre Dame-Louisville, so a scapegoat had to be found; it is OC George McDonald, who is now former OC. Tim Lester takes his place calling plays; good luck there, with starting QB Terrel Hunt now out 4-6 weeks with a broken leg.

5) Mike Scifres has been the Chargers’ punter for 12 years now; he’s appeared in 171 career games. He punted in college at Western Illinois, but when he was in high school in Louisiana, he was his team’s kicker, but not its punter.

How many NFL punters didn’t punt in high school? His team’s punter by the way, was future Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed.

4) Six QB’s were drafted ahead of Tom Brady in 2000. Six. Check the table up above for details, but if you think scouting/drafting is an exact science, think again.

3) It should be noted that when the 49ers drafted Joe Montana in the 3rd round in 1979, Bill Walsh preferred his old Stanford QB Steve Dils to Montana. 49er scouting guru Vinny Cerrano got the last word, though and Niners drafted Montana. Lucky for them.

2) Yusmiero Petit has had an interesting season; not only was he the winning pitcher in the 2nd-ever 18-inning playoff game (throwing 6.1 scoreless innings) he also set a major league record earlier this summer when he retired 47 consecutive batters, an obscure but very cool record.

1) So who knew that through five weeks, the Cleveland Browns would be the NFL’s most interesting team? All four of their games have seen winning points score in the last 1:09 of the game and all without Johnny Manziel doing one significant thing, other than congratulating his teammates. And making Snickers commercials.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Colts road chalk at Texans

Going into the 2014 NFL season, nobody thought too much about the Dallas Cowboys. They’ve been the poster child for mediocrity for pretty much the entire 21st century.

But after five weeks, Dallas (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looks surprisingly solid, and it will play in the marquee game of Week 6 when the Cowboys travel to Seattle to face the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks (2-1 SU and ATS). The Cowboys outlasted Houston 20-17 Sunday, falling short as 5-point home chalk but winning SU for the fourth consecutive week.

The Seahawks had a bye in Week 4 after edging Denver 26-20 in overtime as a 4-point home favorite in Week 3. They still have unfinished business in Week 5 – they travel to face Washington in the Monday night game, so there’s no line on the Cowboys-Seahawks contest yet.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, expects an uphill battle for Dallas, despite its current upswing.

“Bettors are hopping back on the Cowboys bandwagon, but I think they'll shy away from this one,” Lester said. “The Seahawks are on a short week, but with the massive home-field advantage, we’ll have to make Dallas at least a touchdown dog.”

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans

The AFC South is either mediocre or awful – Indy and Houston are both 3-2 SU, Tennessee is 1-4 SU and Jacksonville is a dismal 0-5 SU. So the best of the batch meet in Houston for the Thursday night game.

The Colts (4-1 ATS) fended off Baltimore 20-13 Sunday to cash as 2.5-point favorites, while the Texans (also 4-1 ATS) came up short in a 20-17 overtime loss at Dallas, but covered as 5-point underdogs.

“The Colts are the better team, which is why we made them road chalk,” Lester said. “Defense will have to keep the Texans in it, and it could, because I don't think they have enough offensively to hang with Indy.”

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Back in Week 3, Atlanta (2-3 SU and ATS) plastered Tampa Bay 56-14. But the Falcons have had nothing since, getting trounced 41-28 at undermanned Minnesota as a 5-point fave, then losing 30-20 Sunday to the New York Giants as a 4-point road pup.

Chicago (2-3 SU and ATS) has also been up and down and is also coming off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, falling 31-24 at Carolina on Sunday as a 1.5-point dog.

“Atlanta’s offensive line is in shambles. Both O-lines in this one are pretty bad, actually,” Lester said. “The Falcons are much better at home, and with the NFC South wide open, they really need this.”

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Philly (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) is tied with Dallas atop the NFC East, and New York (3-2 SU and ATS) is back in the chase with a three-game SU and ATS winning streak after dumping its first two games. The Eagles held off St. Louis 34-28 laying 3.5 points at home Sunday, and the Giants bested Atlanta 30-20 giving 4 points at home.

“For the time being, the NFC east is looking pretty competitive – a far cry from where it was last year,” Lester said. “Neither defense can be trusted here. These are two teams with loyal followers, but I’m guessing the money from the Philly fans and the public will outweigh New York’s for this prime-time affair.”

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 6

October 8, 2014


Thursday, Oct. 9

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON ...Colts have won and covered last three meetings. Indy "over" 5-1-1 last seven, but five of last six "under" in series. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Oct. 12

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DENVER at NY JETS...Broncos "under" 7-2-1 last ten since late 2013, but "over" last week vs. Cards. Denver 9-4 as visiting chalk since Manning arrived in 2012. Broncos and "under," based on recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND...First rematch of season. Steelers had covered three straight in series before failing to do so in opener, and have covered only 2 of last 7 at Cleveland. Steel "over" 7-3 last ten since late 2013. Browns "over" 4-0 TY and 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. "Over" based on "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE...Jags "over" 3-1-1 TY, 6-3-1 "over" last nine since late 2013. Jags no covers last four on road. Titans 1-7-1 vs. line last 8 at Nashville. "Over," based on recent Jag "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at ATLANTA...Chicago "over" 8-1 last 9 since late 2013. Home team has won and covered first five Falcon games TY. . "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

GREEN BAY at MIAMI...Pack has back-to-back wins and covers, also "over" 4-1 TY. Pack "over" 9-2 last 11 reg.-season games. Dolphins 6-1-1 as home dog since 2012. "Over" and Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Minn. "over" 8-2 last 10 as host, and Vikes 4-0-1 vs. line last five at home vs. Detroit. Lions still 7-15-1 last 23 vs. line away but did win and cover last as visitor at Jets. Lions "under" 7-1 last 8 since late 2013. Vikes, based on series trends.

CAROLINA at CINCINNATI...Panthers were 8-1 last nine as road dog prior to Ravens loss. Slight to Panthers, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO...Pats have only lost since vs. Bills since 2003 (20-1 SU last 21) but have dropped 2 of last 3 vs. number at Orchard Park. Bills were 6-1 as home dog LY. Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

BALTIMORE at TAMPA BAY...Ravens "over" 8-5-1 last 14 since mid 2013. Baltimore 4-6-1 last 11 as visiting chalk. Bucs no covers last three as host. Slight to "over" and Ravens, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...Bolts 5-0 vs. line TY, 7-0 last 6 and 10-1 last 101since late 2013. But SD only 1-3 as road chalk since 2012 and lost at Oakland LY. Raiders 3-8 last 11 as home dog. Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.

DALLAS at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll 15-5 vs. line as host since 2012. Dallas 1-0 as road dog TY and 7-3 last 10 in role. Dallas also "over" 7-5 last 12 since late 2013. Seahawks and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...Skins 2-3 vs. line TY, 4-8 last 12 on board since mid 2013 (prior to Sea.) Arians 6-3-1 vs. line as host since LY. Big Red also "under" 6-3 last 9. Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA...G-Men have won and covered last 3. Coughlin 15-9 last 24 as dog and has covered last 3 at Linc. Birds only 4-7as home chalk for Chip and 4-11 in role since 2012. Giants, based on team trends.


Monday, Oct. 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Niners 7-1 as road chalk since LY, and Harbaugh 19-9-1 vs. line away from home since 2011. Fisher 0-2 vs. line at home TY, also "over' 7-4 last 11 at Edward Jones Dome. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.