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Betting Recap - Week 7

October 20, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 7 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-4
Against the Spread 6-8
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-7
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8


NFL Overall Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 72-31-1
Against the Spread 54-47-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 51-43-1
Against the Spread 44-57-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-49


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Most betting shops closed Baltimore and Green Bay as seven-point home favorites and they both won and covered, rather easily too. The Ravens stifled the Falcons 29-7 while the Packers crushed the Panthers 38-17 in wire-to-wire fashion.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

St. Louis (+7) used trick plays to hold off Seattle 28-26. The Rams were listed as high as +250 (Bet $100 to win $250) on the money-line. It was the second straight loss for the Seahawks as healthy favorites.

Home Sweet Home

After watching the road teams dominate in Week 6, the hosts bounced back win an 8-1 SU mark in the early games. The lone road team to win in the early action on Sunday was Miami, who diced up Chicago 27-14 as a three-point road underdog.

The visitors bounced back in the afternoon as Kansas City (+3) defeated San Diego 23-20 with a late field goal and Arizona (-3.5) stopped Oakland 24-13.

Winning yet Losing

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Including Thursday's outcome between the Patriots and Jets, the point-spread mattered in four games this week. New England, Washington, Buffalo and Detroit all won as favorites but they failed to cover the number.

The Bills were the most fortunate to win as they defeated Minnesota 17-16 on a touchdown reception with 1 second left in the game.

No Longer Winless

Jacksonville opened as a three-point underdog against Cleveland in Week 7 and the line had jumped all the way up to six points this week. On Sunday morning, the Jaguars received money and they closed as four-point home underdogs. The 0-6 club finally cashed as Jacksonville defeated the Browns 24-6 with a great defensive effort. Cleveland had 266 yards of total offense and was 4-of-17 (23%) on third down.

Same Old Raiders

Oakland lost a tough 31-28 decision to San Diego at home in Week 6. Despite the setback, the Raiders received attention at the betting counter in Week 7 and those bettors were fooled. Oakland couldn't run the ball at all quarterback Derek Carr looked like a rookie again as the Cardinals defeated the Raiders 24-13 as three-point road favorites. Oakland is now 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS.

Hot and Not

Indianapolis has won and covered five straight games.

Green Bay has won and covered four in a row and the 'over' has also cashed in all of these games.

Atlanta has gone 0-4 both SU and ATS in its last four games, losing all four games by double digits.

Totals

Week 6 watched the 'over' go 10-5 and those results could've been different if it wasn't for some wild outcomes.

In Week 7, bettors saw the opposite occur on Sunday as the 'under' produced a 8-4 record through the first 12 games.

Buffalo improved its 'under' record to 6-1 with another defensive gem at home.

Green Bay (6-1) and New Orleans (5-1) both leaned to the 'over' again.

Denver (5-1) dropped San Francisco (4-3) by a 42-17 score, as the Broncos saw the 'over' cash for a third straight game. And the 'over' is now 17-4 in 21 prime time games so far this season.

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McCoy to start for 'Skins next Monday

October 20, 2014

ASHBURN, Va. (AP) - Redskins coach Jay Gruden says that unless Robert Griffin III is 100 percent ready to return from injury, Colt McCoy will start at quarterback against the Dallas Cowboys next week.

Gruden says Monday he can't rule out Griffin, ''but he still has a way's to go.''

Griffin has been sidelined since dislocating his left ankle in Week 2 against Jacksonville.

Kirk Cousins took over as the starter, but he was benched at halftime Sunday, when McCoy came in and led Washington to a come-from-behind 19-17 victory over the Tennessee Titans.

If McCoy does begin next Monday night's game against Dallas, it would be his first NFL start since December 2011, when he was with the Cleveland Browns.

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No stopping Peyton and Broncos

October 20, 2014


This was one ball Peyton Manning wanted in his grasp.

Comically, his teammates initially wouldn't give it to him. And then he agreed to give it away, anyhow.

Manning's receivers played keep-away with his milestone memento, and the NFL's new leader in career touchdown passes toyed with the San Francisco 49ers in the Denver Broncos' 42-17 romp Sunday night.

Manning went into the showdown two TDs shy of Brett Favre's record of 508 and threw four touchdown passes, giving him 510. He surpassed Favre's mark with an 8-yard strike to Demaryius Thomas late in the second quarter. As he went to retrieve the football, his teammates decided to have some fun.

Thomas tossed the historic ball over Manning and to Emmanuel Sanders, who then lobbed it to Wes Welker. From there, Welker dished it back to Sanders, who then flipped it to Julius Thomas - all of Manning's favorite targets getting into the act.

''I heard whispers about something,'' Manning said. ''Those guys are all great athletes, and my vertical leap isn't what it used to be.

''I haven't played keep-away since I was 8 years old. That is something I will always remember.''

Finally, Manning got the ball along with congratulations from his teammates and coaches.

The souvenir won't end up on Manning's mantle, however - it's headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Manning needed just four drives Sunday night to break the record. He threw a 3-yard TD pass to Sanders on Denver's first drive and tied the record when Welker took a pass over the middle for 39 yards. His final TD of the night was a 40-yarder to Thomas, giving him 510.

Manning reached the milestone in his 246th regular-season game. Favre needed 302.

''I think Brett has always known he is one of my favorite players,'' Manning said. ''He played the position with so much passion, so much toughness and great production as a quarterback.

''I am honored to join this club with him.''

Denver is 5-1 and San Francisco is 4-3.

The weekend began with New England (5-2) beating the New York Jets (1-6) on Thursday night, 27-25. Monday night, it's Houston (3-3) at Pittsburgh (3-3).

Off this week were Philadelphia (5-1) and Tampa Bay (1-5).

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RAMS 28, SEAHAWKS 26

At St. Louis, special teams trickery was decisive for the Rams (2-4).

Punter Johnny Hekker's pass from the St. Louis 18 caught the Seahawks by surprise for the last of three big plays by those special teams.

Stedman Bailey had a 90-yard touchdown on a trick return that fooled the Seahawks into thinking another player was going to catch the punt. Benny Cunningham's 75-yard kickoff return set up an early touchdown for the Rams.

Russell Wilson rushed for 106 yards on seven carries and passed for two touchdowns while going 23 for 36 for 313 yards.

The Seahawks (3-3) dominated statistically, outgaining the Rams 463-272. Doug Baldwin's' 9-yard reception cut the deficit to two with 3:18 to go, but the Rams were able to run out the clock after Hekker's completion to Cunningham.

''Some unbelievable cool things that they were able to do on special teams and it made a big difference,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said.

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PACKERS 38, PANTHERS 17

Aaron Rodgers threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns, and Randall Cobb torched the Carolina secondary for 121 yards on receptions.

Sure-tackling Green Bay (5-2) limited quarterback Cam Newton in the first half. The host Packers scored touchdowns on their first three series and led 28-3 at halftime.

Newton, who had a career-high 17 carries last week, had 41 yards rushing on seven attempts. He passed for 205 yards for Carolina (3-3-1).

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CHIEFS 23, CHARGERS 20

At San Diego, Cairo Santos kicked a 48-yard field goal with 21 seconds left, and the Chiefs snapped the Chargers' five-game winning streak.

The Chiefs moved into field goal range thanks to Alex Smith, who completed three straight passes for 43 yards, including a 29-yarder to Dwayne Bowe.

Coming off their bye, the Chiefs (3-3) made the AFC West a three-team race, pulling within 1 1/2 games of San Diego (5-2). The Broncos (5-1) lead the division.

The Chiefs' Andy Reid is 14-2 after a bye week, the most victories for any coach.

The Chargers flunked their sternest test in a month and lost for the first time since a defeat at Arizona in the season opener.

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JAGUARS 24, BROWNS 6

Denard Robinson ran for a career-high 127 yards and a touchdown, Jacksonville's defense came up big in the red zone, and the Jaguars snapped a nine-game losing streak.

Jacksonville (1-6) won for the first time since beating Houston on Dec. 15, 2013.

Blake Bortles connected with fellow rookie Allen Robinson for a 31-yard score and the game's first touchdown. It was really all the Jaguars needed on a day in which coach Gus Bradley's defense delivered time and time again.

The visiting Browns (3-3) entered the game with the NFL's third-best rushing attack. The Browns ran 30 times for 69 yards, including 36 by Ben Tate.

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COWBOYS 31, GIANTS 21

DeMarco Murray broke Jim Brown's 56-year-old NFL record with his seventh straight 100-yard rushing game to start a season. The host Cowboys (6-1) won their sixth straight.

Tony Romo threw three touchdown passes, and had a fourth scoring pass overturned on replay. Instead, Murray wound up with his seventh TD rushing on a 1-yard plunge.

Murray finished with 128 yards rushing to pass Brown, who hit the century mark in the first six games of the 1958 season for Cleveland.

The Cowboys are off to their best start since they went 13-3 in 2007 and were the top seed in the NFC before losing to New York in their first playoff game.

Eli Manning had three touchdown passes for the Giants (3-4).

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CARDINALS 24, RAIDERS 13

Carson Palmer threw two touchdown passes in his return to Oakland to send the Raiders to their 12th straight loss, six this season.

Stepfan Taylor caught one touchdown pass and ran for another, and Andre Ellington gained 160 yards from scrimmage for the Cardinals (5-1), who are off to their best start since 1976.

Darren McFadden ran for a touchdown for the Raiders, off to their worst start to a season since losing their first 13 games in 1962 - the year before late owner Al Davis joined the franchise.

''This is as bad as you're going to get through the first part of the season,'' safety Charles Woodson said. ''We haven't won a game. How much worse can it get than that, than not winning a game?''

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LIONS 24, SAINTS 23

At Detroit, the Saints blew another road game in the final moments.

Matthew Stafford threw two touchdown passes in the final 3:38, including the winner to Corey Fuller with 1:48 remaining.

The Saints (2-4) were in control late in the fourth quarter when Stafford found Golden Tate for a 73-yard catch-and-run that made it 23-17. Then, Drew Brees was intercepted on third down by Glover Quin, whose 23-yard return gave the Lions (5-2) the ball at the New Orleans 14.

Detroit caught a break when Rafael Bush was called for pass interference on fourth down. Stafford eventually connected with Fuller in the back of the end zone for a 5-yard touchdown and the win.

The Saints committed 12 penalties for 134 yards.

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COLTS 27, BENGALS 0

At Indianapolis, Andrew Luck threw two touchdown passes, and the Colts' defense dominated Cincinnati. Indy churned out 506 yards.

Luck was 27 of 42 for 344 yards as Indianapolis (5-2) won its fifth straight. It was Indy's first shutout since December 2008 and the 500th victory in franchise history.

Cincinnati (3-2-1), which hasn't won since starting 3-0, endured its first shutout since December 2009 and had a franchise-record-tying 11 punts.

Colts linebacker Erik Walden was ejected in the first half for making contact with umpire Bruce Stritesky.

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RAVENS 29, FALCONS 7

At Baltimore, Elvis Dumervil and Pernell McPhee each had two sacks, part of a dominant defensive performance. Baltimore (5-2) led 17-0 at halftime and coasted to its second straight blowout win. The Ravens beat Tampa Bay 48-17 last week.

The Falcons (2-5) averted their first shutout loss since December 2004 when Matt Ryan connected with Roddy White for a 4-yard touchdown with 7:12 remaining. It was Atlanta's first fourth-quarter score in five games; the Falcons have lost four in a row.

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DOLPHINS 27, BEARS 14

At Chicago, the Bears (3-4) remained winless in three home games this season and have dropped five of their last seven at Soldier Field. Matt Forte scored two touchdowns and Jeremiah Ratliff finished with a career-best 3 1/2 sacks.

Ryan Tannehill threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns for Miami (3-3), connecting on his first 14 passes.

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REDSKINS 19, TITANS 17

Kai Forbath's 22-yard field goal on the last play won it for the host Redskins.

Colt McCoy completed 11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown in his first meaningful role in a win since Nov. 20, 2011. He came on in the second half after Kirk Cousins was benched.

The Redskins (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak. The Titans (2-5) saw Charlie Whitehurst go 17 for 26 for 160 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

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BILLS 17, VIKINGS 16

The Bills gave their hometown fans a last-second thrill - literally. Kyle Orton hit rookie Sammy Watkins on a 2-yard touchdown pass with 1 second remaining. That capped a 15-play, 80-yard drive which Orton extended by converting a fourth-and-20.

Orton overcame an interception, a lost fumble and six sacks to finish 31 of 43 for 283 yards and two touchdowns - both to Watkins.

It was Orton's second last-second victory in three starts for Buffalo (4-3), which overcame injuries to running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.

The Vikings (2-5) forced four turnovers.

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Bills' Jackson could be out a month

October 20, 2014


BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) - Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson says he expects to be out for about four weeks with a groin injury.

Jackson told WGR radio Monday that doctors gave him that prognosis.

Jackson was hurt in the Bills' 17-16 win Sunday over the Vikings. Fellow running back C.J. Spiller also was carted off during the game after injuring his shoulder. His injury is potentially season-ending.

The Bills will likely have a depleted offensive backfield when they face the Jets on Sunday. Coach Doug Marrone is expected to address the injuries Monday afternoon.



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Bills' RB Spiller out indefinitely

October 20, 2014



ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - The one-two punch in the Buffalo Bills offensive backfield just got knocked out.

Running back C.J. Spiller is out indefinitely - and could miss the rest of the season - after having surgery Monday to repair an injury to his collarbone. And co-starter Fred Jackson revealed during his weekly radio show on Buffalo's WGR that he could miss up to four weeks with a groin injury.

Both players were hurt about 10 minutes apart in the first half of a 17-16 win over Minnesota on Sunday

The injuries leave Buffalo (4-3) turning to backups Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown to carry the load for the near future.

The Bills play at the New York Jets (1-6) on Sunday before entering their bye week off.

The injuries nearly overshadowed a dramatic victory, in which Kyle Orton capped a 15-play, 80-yard drive with a 2-yard touchdown pass to Sammy Watkins with 1 second left.

Coach Doug Marrone confirmed Spiller had surgery, but declined to discuss the nature of the injury. As for a timetable, Marrone said he's waiting for doctors to provide a prognosis before determining how much time Spiller might miss.

Marrone noted ''all options are on the table,'' including placing Spiller on the injured reserve/designated to return list. Under that designation, Spiller wouldn't be eligible to return until Week 16.

The Bills initially announced Spiller hurt his shoulder before Marrone provided the update on Monday.

Spiller was hurt after a 53-yard run in the second quarter, when he was tripped up from behind and fell hard on his left shoulder along the left sideline. He was carefully loaded into a cart and was in tears while driven off.

The injury has the potential of ending Spiller's tenure in Buffalo. The Bills 2010 first-round draft pick is completing the final year of his contract, making him eligible to become a free agent this offseason.

Jackson was already in the locker room when Spiller was carted in.

''I didn't say anything to him. I just kind of gave him a big hug, put my arm around him and told him I was there for him,'' Jackson said.

Jackson was hurt in the first quarter, when he felt something pop upon taking a handoff on a third-and-1 play. He took a few steps before falling and then immediately grabbed the inside of his left leg.

Jackson said doctors informed him the pop was a muscle being pulled about a centimeter off the bone.

''It's typically a four-week injury, but we'll try to do some things to get it sped up,'' Jackson said. ''Hopefully, I can get back a lot sooner than that.''

Marrone was not pleased with Jackson going public with his injury and wouldn't say whether the four-week prognosis is accurate.

Either way, Buffalo's running-back rotation is going to have an altogether new look.

Dixon, an offseason free-agent addition, is expected to get additional playing time after he had 13 carries for 51 yards against Minnesota. Brown, acquired in a trade with Philadelphia in May, will finally get a chance to play after being listed as inactive through the first seven games.

The Bills also have fullback Frank Summers.

Brown is eager to finally get an opportunity to suit up, though unhappy that it comes because of injuries.

''I reached out to both yesterday and told them I'm praying for a speedy recovery,'' Brown said. ''I told them, I'm going to go out there and play for them. I'll do my very best. I don't want to let those guys down.''

Brown was in a similar position during his rookie season in Philadelphia in 2012, when filled in after injured starter LeSean McCoy.

In his first start, Brown set the Eagles' single-game rookie rushing record with 178 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He followed that with 169 yards rushing and two more score in becoming the NFL's fifth rookie since 1960 to rush for 165-plus yards in consecutive games.

In Buffalo, Brown has been the odd-man out because Dixon also fills a role on special teams.

''I know that I can perform and play on this level,'' Brown said. ''But at the end of the day, I don't control who's active and who's not. And unfortunately it was me. But I don't really want to focus on that because that's not really important.''

[StarDust Bum]

Idzik: Harvin trade to be 'coup' for Jets

October 20, 2014


FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) - The potential payoff in acquiring Percy Harvin outweighed the risks involved for New York Jets general manager John Idzik.

The Jets and Seattle Seahawks agreed to the deal on Friday and completed it the next day, with New York sending a conditional draft pick to Seattle. Harvin, practicing with the Jets for the first time Monday, gives New York versatility and game-breaking skills.

''I think he's a pretty explosive talent,'' Idzik raved during practice. ''I think he's proven in this league that he could be a very explosive and dynamic offensive weapon.''

But Harvin is also a player who is injury prone and has had some questions about his character and interactions.

''I look at it the other way,'' Idzik said. ''I look at it as this could be a potential coup for the New York Jets, acquiring a player of Percy's talent and his caliber.''

Idzik said he had thorough discussions with Seahawks general manager John Schneider about the receiver. Idzik and Schneider are close friends who also worked together in Seattle.

''We did a ton of background,'' Idzik said. ''As always, we do our due diligence with a player acquisition, and it was no different in this case. I just so happen to know a lot of people in Seattle very closely, so I guess I had that advantage, too.

''We had very forthright conversations about Percy and what happened there and I decided it was prudent to move forward,'' he said.

The 26-year-old Harvin has played in 60 games with only 47 career starts since being a first-round pick by Minnesota in 2009. He was traded to the Seahawks in 2013 for a 2013 first-round and seventh-round draft choice and a 2014 third-rounder.

He appeared in just one regular-season game in 2013 because of hip surgery. But Harvin ran back a second-half kickoff 87 yards for a touchdown in Seattle's 43-8 rout of Denver in the Super Bowl.

''Pure and simple, bringing in a player like Percy is to help our offense,'' Idzik said. ''You've seen our offense has had its moments where we can move the ball, where we can sustain drives. I think you bring in a player like Percy, he can help everybody that way.''

Idzik says the move was to help the 1-6 Jets improve - not a result of public pressure or criticism. The GM has been highly criticized for not providing second-year quarterback Geno Smith and the rest of the offense enough playmakers in the offseason.

''Our premise will always be if there's a chance for us to improve our team, no matter what time of year it is, be it early- to mid-October or early- to mid-April, we're going to do it,'' Idzik said. ''This chance presented itself and we felt like we wanted to take advantage of it.''

Idzik said he had ''substantive talks'' with Seattle last week before the Jets' game at New England last Thursday night, but the discussions ''crystallized'' after the team's 27-25 loss - its sixth straight.

''It became evident that this was a real possibility,'' Idzik said, ''and eventually we pulled the trigger.''

Idzik has no concerns ''right now'' that Harvin could be a potential disruptive force in the locker room.

''My introduction to Percy was very positive,'' Idzik said. ''He was very excited to be here. And, really, it's about looking forward. Understanding what may have happened in the past - I wasn't there, he was - but really that's in the rearview mirror. Learn from your experiences like anybody else, and we're looking forward. He's looking forward. He's excited to be here and we're excited to have him.''

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Tech Trends - Week 8

October 21, 2014

Thursday, Oct. 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at DENVER...Bolts have covered both against Peyton Manning at Sports Authority Field since 2012. Though Denver has won and covered both at Qualcomm past two years! Bolts no covers last 2 TY, Denver 14-6 vs. line last 20 at home in reg. season. Slight to broncos, based on team trends.



Sunday, Oct. 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DETROIT at ATLANTA (at Wembley Stadium, London)...Lions have won and covered last two on road after 6-15-1 previous 22 away. Falcs no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Lions "under" 8-2 last 10 since late 2013. "Under" and slight to Lions, based on recent Detroit trends.

MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Vikes "under" 5-2 last seven. Bucs 0-3 vs. line at home this season and no covers last four at Raymond James. Slight to Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at NEW ENGLAND...Bears are 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. They're also "over" 15-7-1 since LY. Belichick now "over" four straight in 2014 and "over" 49-21 last 70 in reg. season.. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered last four TY and now get home after playing 4 of first 6 away. Though Andy Reid only 3-7 vs. spread at Arrowhead since last season. Chiefs also "over" 8-4 last 12 since late 2013. Rams "over" last three TY. "Over," based on ;totals" trends.

SEATTLE at CAROLINA...Hawks 11-4-1 vs. spread last 15 away from CenturyLink and 7-14-2 overall vs. number since 2012. Cam "over" last four in 2014. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

BUFFALO at NY JETS...Rex no SU wins last six TY but did break four-game spread losing streak in game at Belichick. Jets 0-4 vs. line at home in 2014, though host team has won and covered last four in series with Bills. Buffalo "under" 6-1 this season. "Under," based on Bills "totals" trends.

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE...Jax 2-8-1 last 11 vs. spread at EverBank. Dolphins no covers in three tries as visiting chalk for Philbin, though they are 9-4 last 13 on board. Dolphins, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Texans have covered 5 of last 6 vs. Titans and "overs" 5-2 last seven in series. Texans and "over," based on series trends.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Bengals no covers last three TY. Slight to Ravens, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA...Arians 11-3-1 last 15 vs. spread. Also 7-3-1 last 11 vs. number at home. Cards, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH...Colts have covered last four on road in regular season, "over" 6-2-1 last nine since late 2013. Steel "over" 6-1 last seven at Heinz Field. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND...Raiders "over" 9-4-1 last 14 since mid 2013. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Sean Payton finally fails to cover at home vs. Bucs after 17-0-1 Superdome spread run, though Payton still 19-0 SU last 19 as host. Pack over" 6-1 TY and 9-1 last ten reg.-season games. But Pack just 1-6 last 7 as road dog. "Over" and Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.




Monday, Oct. 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Dallas has won last 6 SU but is only 2-2 vs. line at home TY and 8-15 vs. spread last 23 as host. Skins have covered 7 of last 8 meetings, but no covers last four in 2014. And Skins just 2-7 last nine as road dog.

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Inside the Stats - Week 8

October 21, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Holding down four of the top five spots in the current AP Poll, the SEC has immortalized itself as the premier conference in college football today. Most surprising is that Mississippi State and Ole Miss have lapped past Georgia and LSU in this year’s race to the top.

With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 20, unless noted otherwise.

PENNZOIL PLAYS

It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Missouri and Utah.

NFL: Tampa Bay and Tennessee.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were an abundance of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NCAAFB: Ball State, Kansas State, Missouri and North Carolina.

NFL: New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.

NFL: New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams.

Note: from the teams above there is one matchup this week involving a ‘Double Inside Out’ showdown: North Carolina vs. Virginia

STAYING PERFECT

We find the following teams perfect ITS (Inside the Stats) this football season. You might be surprised at who you find on these lists.

NCAAFB: 100% ITS Teams
Arizona, East Carolina, Marshall and Ohio State

NCAAFB: 0% ITS Teams
Eastern Michigan, SMU and Vanderbilt

Note: Only one team in the NFL is perfect ITS in every game this season, Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been outgained in all six of their games.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Atlanta Falcons are 14-1 SU and 13-1-1 ATS before back-to-back away games.

The Carolina Panthers are 10-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss when hosting NFC West division opponents.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS as favorites with a .500 record.

The San Diego Chargers are 8-0-1 ATS as visitors the last nine games at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is 9-0 SU but 1-8 ATS as a division home favorite of seven or more points.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 5-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career after playing a Thursday game.

Oakland Raiders head coach Tony Sparano is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road ‘dog versus an opponent off a SU loss.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is 10-1 SU and ATS at home in non-division games off a SU non-division loss.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The New Orleans Saints are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting football games this coming weekend.........

-- Mississippi State @ Kentucky-- This is the CBS 3:30 game? Wow.

-- Michigan @ Michigan State-- Spartans are a 17-point favorite!!!!

-- Ole Miss @ LSU-- Don't give my man Les Miles points in Death Valley.

-- Arizona @ Washington State-- If weather is good, bet the over.

-- Ohio State @ Penn State-- Coach Johnson returns to Happy Valley.

-- Eagles @ Cardinals-- Both teams are 5-1; this game ain't for the birds.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in the NFL.......

32) Raiders-- Lot of pressure on Cleveland to beat the Raiders this weekend, after they lost in Jacksonville last week. Raiders have to be happy with rookie QB Carr, but they're only NFL team that hasn't scored 100 points.

31) Jaguars-- No coincidence that bottom two teams are both playing rookie QBs, but those guys haven't been the problem. Fans can't be real thrilled that their "home" game with Dallas is being played in freakin' London.

30) Titans-- Very hard to win without a good QB and Tennessee doesn't have one; still haven't recovered from drafting Vince Young. 27th in NFL in yards/game, tied for 28th in points/game.

29) Jets-- You watched them against Patriots last week and wondered how the hell they were 1-6; then they gave up a draft pick for Percy Harvin, who the Super Bowl champs couldn't wait to get rid of, and you realize they're a dysfunctional team.

28) Buccaneers-- Really thought they'd be pretty good this year, but they're 21st in NFL in takeaways, which has always been a strength of Lovie Smith teams. Funny thing is, at 1-5, they're only two games out of first place in dreadful NFC South.

8) Cardinals-- Funny how other teams' screw-ups can help you; Steelers stupidly got rid of Bruce Arians as OC, he went to Indy, was interim coach for a year and is now in line to be Coach of the Year in the desert. Arizona fired Whisenhunt, who is a good coach, but they were smart to hire Arians.

7) Ravens-- Quietest 5-2 team in league, have allowed least points in NFL. Will try to avenge Week 1 loss to Bengals this week, when they trailed 15-0, rallied to take lead but lost on 77-yard bomb to Green with 4:58 left. Their owner seems like a good guy; he handled the Ray Rice debacle as well as he could have.

6) Patriots-- This has nothing to do with New England, but Carolina is in first place in NFC South and they've allowed 37 more points than they've scored. In another non-Patriot note, Harold Reynolds isn't good on FOX; can't they put Ron Darling or Jim Kaat or John Smoltz on, someone who can make sense?

5) Packers-- Won last four games, scoring 36.3 ppg. If you think college recruiting is an exact science, remember that Aaron Rodgers played junior college ball before he went to California. Only team that offered Ryan Fitzpatrick a scholarship was I-AA Eastern Washington, who play on a red artificial turf field.

4) Chargers-- Raiders, Rams, Bolts all rumored to be interested in moving to LA, where fair-weather fans only support winning teams. All three teams have already called LA home once and left-- why would they go back? Rams' owner Kroenke is from Missouri, is named after Enos Slaughter, the old Cardinal baseball player; would be very surprised if he pulled Rams out of St Louis.

3) Cowboys-- Have converted 54-94 (57.4%) of 3rd down plays, giving them edge in field position and tiring defenses out.

2) Colts-- Started season 0-2 (Broncos/Eagles); haven't lost since. Saw something last week that said through six games, Andrew Luck had thrown 6th most passes of any QB thru six games since 1960. They beat Bengals 27-0 last week and were -2 in the turnover category, with both RBs fumbling in Cincinnati territory.

1) Broncos-- FOX ran a graphic showing John Fox's coaching record with, without Peyton Manning; Fox got to a Super Bowl with Jake freakin' Delhomme as his QB. Why is it that no one posts Belichick's record with and without Brady? Anyone?

Brady's win-loss record: 153-45.
Belichick's win-loss record: 204-107.......you do the math.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 8 line watch: Bettors should be quick to back Chiefs

Spread to bet now

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Would you bet on a team the week after it plays in the Super Bowl? That’s essentially what you would be doing if you lay cash on the Rams in this one. St. Louis used every tactical weapon in its arsenal to take down the Seahawks, and you have to wonder how much petrol will be left in the tank when they travel to Kansas City this coming Sunday.

The Chiefs are coming off the high of a solid win in San Diego that kept them in the playoff conversation, and they are a solid 4-2 against the spread. Kansas City will no doubt do everything it can to run the ball against the Rams’ 28th-ranked rush defense, so all the arrows are pointing toward the Chiefs in this one. Jump before the line goes up a half-point.


Spread to wait on

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This is the early game of year in the NFL, with both teams at 5-1. The Eagles have been pasting teams at home, but have actually been outscored by opponents in their two home games. Still, early money is on the Eagles, who are a national team and always attract play.

There is a possibility that this one could move to 2-points as heavy money on Philly from the East continues to flood the offshores. Arizona is 5-1 and starting to take of advantage of dysfunction in San Francisco and Seattle to make a real run at the NFC West.


Total to watch

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (In London) (47)

These are the worst of times in Atlanta, where the 2-5 Falcons are basically out of it already in the NFC South and giving up gobs of points, despite a benign schedule so far. Fans have been clamoring for Mike Smith’s head on a platter, and there is already talk about bringing in Rex Ryan to fix what ails the defense, which is just about everything.

The Lions aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard every week, but they’ve been winning with their league-best defense that allows only 15 points a game. The Falcons will want to run the ball to stay competitive and keep the fans off their backs, so a long look at an under play is needed here.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report: McCoy a key to Chargers-Broncos matchup

Two of the top teams in the AFC will get back to work on a short week when West Division rivals Denver and San Diego square off in the Mile High City on Thursday night.

The defending AFC champion Broncos (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) come in off a 42-17 blitzing of San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game. The Chargers (5-2 SU and ATS) had their five-game SU winning streak snapped Sunday in a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City as a 3-point fave.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said Chargers coach Mike McCoy – a former Broncos assistant – is a key component.

“You’ve always got the Mike McCoy factor supporting San Diego in this matchup. They played them closely all three times last year, beating them at Mile High (in the regular season), and I expect much of the same this week,” Lester said.

With the Broncos’ convincing win over the 49ers, Lester said, “We’ll make the Broncos around 6-point chalk.”

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (3-3 SU and ATS) has already matched its loss total from all of the 2013 season, following up its home setback to Dallas with a 28-26 road loss to St. Louis as a 6.5-point chalk Sunday.

Carolina (3-3-1 SU, 4-3 ATS), another NFC playoff team from last year, is in nearly the same boat. The Panthers, who went 12-4 SU last year, got clocked Sunday at Green Bay, losing 38-17 as a 6.5-point underdog.

“Bizzaro Cam Newton was in uniform for Carolina, and he’s always a wild card,” Lester said. “Meanwhile, you’ve got the defending champs staring three straight losses square in the face. We’re expecting the public to back Seattle in a big way.”

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2)

Aaron Rodgers and Co. are on fire of late, rebounding from a 1-2 start (1-1-1 ATS) to win their last four in a row SU and ATS, including three in blowout fashion. On Sunday, the Pack (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) scored the first 28 points of the game and breezed to a 38-17 win over Carolina laying 6.5 points at home.

On the flip side, New Orleans (2-4 SU and ATS) is watching its season slowly get away. On Sunday at Detroit, the Saints let a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead slip away in the final few minutes, giving up two TDs in a 24-23 loss. On the bright side, New Orleans cashed as a 1.5-point pup.

“The Packers offense is beginning to show signs of its form a few years ago. I don’t know how Rob Ryan’s defense is going to keep it under control,” Lester said. “That said, Green Bay’s defense isn’t as good as it looked (against Carolina). We didn’t want to make the Saints underdogs in their dome, but given the current climate of both teams, it was close.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Philly (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is coming off its bye week before traveling cross-country, after steamrolling the New York Giants 27-0 as a 1-point chalk on Oct. 12. Arizona (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) surprisingly leads division rivals Seattle and San Francisco, and comes in off a 24-13 win at Oakland as a 3.5-point fave Sunday.

“This is a good measuring stick for both teams and about as much of a tossup game as you can get,” Lester said. “The Eagles got a breather with their bye week, while Arizona took care of business in what many thought to be a trap game at Oakland. I think the home team gets it done here in a close one.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 23

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) at DENVER (5 - 1) - 10/23/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 26

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DETROIT (5 - 2) vs. ATLANTA (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-175 ATS (-54.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-175 ATS (-54.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 3 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (3 - 4) at TENNESSEE (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 1) at ARIZONA (5 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 159-124 ATS (+22.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (0 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 4) - 10/26/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 27

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WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 10/27/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 23rd

San Diego at Denver, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 29-14 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games


Sunday, Oct. 26th

Detroit at Atlanta, 9:30 AM ET
Detroit: 7-21 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS in road games in the first half of the season

Minnesota at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tampa Bay: 10-22 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Chicago at New England, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 25-43 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New England: 55-36 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

St Louis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 2-11 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Kansas City: 29-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 18-6 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points
Carolina: 79-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 31-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points
New York: 3-13 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

Miami at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Miami: 10-27 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Jacksonville: 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tennessee: 6-16 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 60-39 UNDER off a home win
Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS in home games

Philadelphia at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Arizona: 40-22 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS as a road favorite
Pittsburgh: 60-36 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

Oakland at Cleveland, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 26-13 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 50-28 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Green Bay at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 77-51 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
New Orleans: 10-24 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games


Monday, Oct. 27th

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Dallas: 8-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 23

8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego


Sunday, October 26

9:30 AM
DETROIT vs. ATLANTA
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Minnesota is 1-11-1 SU in its last 13 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. KANSAS CITY
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home
Cincinnati11-1-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. PITTSBURGH
Indianapolis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Washington


Monday, October 27

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Carolina14-5-2 SU in its last 21 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

San Diego at Denver
The Chargers head to Denver on Thursday night where they are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Broncos. San Diego is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23

Game 103-104: San Diego at Denver (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.793; Denver 144.240
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19

Game 251-252: Detroit vs. Atlanta (9:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.696; Atlanta 122.308
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.560; Tampa Bay 125.877
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

Game 255-256: Chicago at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.157; New England 139.349
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 6; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6); Under

Game 257-258: St. Louis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.898; Kansas City 136.890
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Over

Game 259-260: Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 137.665; Carolina 130.589
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7; 39
Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4 1/2); Under

Game 261-262: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 129.050; NY Jets 128.875
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 263-264: Miami at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 134.014; Jacksonville 125.568
Dunkel Line: Miami by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.722; Tennessee 125.181
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1); Over

Game 267-268: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 140.291; Cincinnati 133.960
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1 1/2); Under

Game 269-270: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.739; Arizona 138.243
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-2 1/2); Under

Game 271-272: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.383; Pittsburgh 134.563
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

Game 273-274: Oakland at Cleveland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.562; Cleveland 129.200
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7); Under

Game 275-276: Green Bay at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.139 New Orleans 136.636
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 277-278: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.523; Dallas 133.828
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- San Diego is 8-1-1 in last ten games as a road underdog.

-- Browns are 6-12-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite.

-- Arizona is 7-3-1 in its last eleven home games.

-- New England covered eight of last ten non-divisional home games.

-- Titans covered twice in their last fourteen games.

-- Ravens are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a road underdog.