The Bum's October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -6.5 500
Baltimore - Over 49.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Washington -6 500
Washington - Under 46.5 500 *****

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +6 500 *****
St. Louis - Over 44 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Jacksonville - Over 44.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -3 500 BLOW OUT
Indianapolis - Under 50.5 500 BLOW OUT

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -6 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Buffalo - Over 43.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3 500 *****
Chicago - Over 47.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Detroit - Under 46.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -6.5 500
Green Bay - Over 48.5 500




Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City +3 500 *****
San Diego - Over 45.5 500 *****

Arizona - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oakland - Over 45.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Giants +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Dallas - Under 46.5 500

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Preview: 49ers (4-2) at Broncos (4-1)

Date: October 19, 2014 8:30 PM EDT


Peyton Manning is two touchdown passes away from matching Brett Favre for the NFL record, but the Denver Broncos are aware it might take more than a few flicks of the wrist to beat the San Francisco 49ers.

Two of the NFL's top teams since the start of 2012 meet Sunday night in Denver with Manning focused on keeping pace in the AFC West over making history.

Favre reached his record of 508 TD passes in 302 regular-season games while Manning is sitting on 506 entering his 246th contest, but it's the continuation of a demanding opening schedule that has the attention of the Broncos (4-1) and Manning.

Denver's first eight opponents averaged 10.75 wins a season ago, and the 49ers (4-2) were on the high end with 12. Since the start of 2012, the Broncos have the NFL's most regular-season wins (30) while San Francisco is tied with Seattle (27) for the best in the NFC.

"Two big games coming up," said Manning, who will face the AFC West-leading Chargers next week. "That's plenty to think about."

It wouldn't be surprising for another milestone pass to land in the hands of Julius Thomas. He's caught nine of Manning's 15 in 2014, putting him on pace to surpass Rob Gronkowski's 2011 single-season tight end record of 17.

Thomas caught two in Sunday's 31-17 road win over the New York Jets, while Manning went 22 of 33 for 237 yards and three TDs.

The 49ers were one of the teams said to be in pursuit of Manning following his 2011 neck surgery, and San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh still has plenty of praise.

"Whenever he takes the field, he's just great all the time and that speaks volumes for the player that he is and continues to be," Harbaugh said. "Just keeps doing it and doing it and doing it. Great. Great with a capital 'G' at the highest level."

He might have to be in order to solve San Francisco's defense in his first meeting with the 49ers since 2009. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL behind Detroit in total defense, giving up just 287.2 yards per game despite not having Aldon Smith or NaVorro Bowman. It could be further stretched if linebacker Patrick Willis, who suffered a toe injury in Monday's 31-17 win at St. Louis, is unable to play.

Still, the defense's 5.9 yards per passing attempt comes in as a league low and could present the Broncos with their most substantial challenge yet.

"We've had a pretty salty schedule thus far," coach John Fox said. "And this week is no different."

Offensively, the 49ers hit their stride against the Rams with a season-high 432 yards and their first 30-point output of the season. Colin Kaepernick accounted for 343 through the air with three TDs on 22-of-35 passing to guide San Francisco to a third straight win.

"He had some pinpoint throws," Harbaugh told the team's official website. "Had some throws where he laid it in there perfectly. ... I thought he was really on his game tonight."

It hasn't been quite as easy to move the ball against the Broncos. They rank fourth in the NFL in total defense (318.2 ypg), fourth in yards per pass attempt (6.23) and fifth in yards per rush (3.31).

Kaepernick, who wasn't sacked last week, pointed to Von Miller's six sacks and DeMarcus Ware's four as something to be aware of after facing a St. Louis team that has one through five games.

"They have two great ends that can rush the passer well," Kaepernick said. "We're going to have to be ready for that."

The Denver defense's rushing mark might be the greatest concern for San Francisco, which hasn't had the same kind of success running on the road (3.6 yards per carry, 99.3 yards per game) as it has at home (4.7, 172.7).

The Broncos' rushing attack has different concerns with running back Montee Ball expected to miss a second game with a groin injury, though Ronnie Hillman filled in against the Jets with 100 yards on 24 carries - both career highs.

The Broncos have gone without committing a turnover three times in five games, but their plus-1 differential is tied for 18th while San Francisco's plus-5 ranks sixth.

The 49ers have won the last two meetings as the teams have split a 12-game all-time regular-season series.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

San Francisco - 8:30 PM ET Denver -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Denver - Over 47.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/19/14 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 38-*48-*2 44.19% -*7400



Rated Plays:

6 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

9 - 16 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

4 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS

[StarDust Bum]

Pair of 3-3 clubs battle on MNF

October 17, 2014


HOUSTON TEXANS (3-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 44.5
Opening Line & Total: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 44.5

Both the Texans and the Steelers will be looking to get over the .500 mark when they meet at Heinz Field on Monday night.

Houston nearly came away with a victory over the Colts in Week 6, losing 33-28 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Pittsburgh was blown out 31-10 in Cleveland as 2.5-point road favorites, which continued its season long pattern of a win followed by a loss. The Texans and Steelers haven’t met since 2011, when Houston won-and-covered 17-10 at home. These teams have split victories both SU and ATS since the Texans entered the league in 2002, with three of their four meetings finishing Under the total. The Texans will lean on RB Arian Foster in this game, as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been far too turnover-prone as of late. Houston is 15-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in their previous three contests since 1992. Pittsburgh, however, is 6-0 ATS after having lost two of its previous three games over the past two years. DE Jadeveon Clowney (knee) could return for the Texans on Monday.

Houston got off to a great start this season, but has now lost two straight games and three of the past four. The play of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,268 pass yards, 6 TD, 6 INT) is the biggest issue for this team struggling to gain yards through the air when it needs to. Fitzpatrick has had just one game where he’s thrown for more than one touchdown and it was against the lowly Raiders in Week 2. Luckily for the Texans, RB Arian Foster (513 rush yards, 5 TD) has been performing at the same elite level that people expect from him. Foster was dominant in the Texans’ loss to the Colts, running for 109 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries. Houston will do whatever it can to make sure Foster is getting the touches he needs against the Steelers. The reality for this team, however, is that its scoring won’t matter unless it can start defending better. This team is getting shredded on a week-to-week basis, allowing 271.5 passing YPG (28th in NFL) and 125.7 rushing YPG (22nd in NFL).

The Steelers have lost two of their past three games and will be looking to turn things around after being blown out 31-10 in Cleveland. QB Ben Roethlisberger (1,593 pass yards, 8 TD, 3 INT) really struggled against the Browns, completing just 50% of his passes for 228 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He’ll look to get things going again versus this poor Texans passing defense. RB Le’Veon Bell (542 rush yards, 1 TD) has been outstanding out of the backfield for this team. He’s second in the NFL with 793 yards from scrimmage, but the Steelers will need to do a better job of feeding him when they reach the red zone. He’s getting them all the way down the field, but they’re abandoning him when they need him most. Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid this season, allowing 225.8 passing YPG (10th in NFL) and 111.2 rushing YPG (15th in NFL). This unit doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and will be putting pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick right from the jump.

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MNF - Texans at Steelers

October 19, 2014

The Steelers and Texans each own 3-3 records, as the two teams meet up to finish the Week 7 NFL card. Both these teams lost last week, as each of these clubs are trying not to be left out of the playoff discussion with six AFC squads owning an above .500 record at the close of this week’s action.

Pittsburgh is sitting at the bottom of the AFC North after getting plowed at Cleveland, 31-10 last Sunday as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Steelers split the season series with the Browns, but since Pittsburgh led Cleveland, 27-3 at halftime of the season opener, the Browns outscored the Steelers, 55-13 in the final six quarters of their matchups. A 21-point second quarter barrage by Cleveland put last week’s game away, as the Browns rushed for three touchdowns and won in spite of Brian Hoyer completing just eight passes.

The Texans dug themselves a 24-0 hole after just one quarter against the division-leading Colts last Thursday night at home. Houston climbed back to cut the deficit to five early in the fourth quarter following a J.J. Watt fumble return for a touchdown, but the Texans couldn’t closer in a 33-28 loss as 2 ½-point underdogs. Indianapolis torched Houston for 370 yards through the air, while the Texans fumbled twice, including a key turnover by wide receiver Andre Johnson in the fourth quarter in Colts’ territory.

Houston has been outgained in every game this season, while its three victories have come against Washington, Oakland, and Buffalo, who have combined for a 6-14 record so far. The Texans won their road opener against the Raiders in Week 2 with a dominating 30-14 triumph, but Bill O’Brien’s team has stumbled in their past two highway contests with losses to the Giants and Cowboys. Houston covered in an overtime defeat at Dallas, as the Texans own a slightly profitable 5-4 ATS record since the start of last season as a road underdog.

The Steelers are the epitome of an up-and-down team, alternating wins and losses throughout their first six games. Does that mean Pittsburgh is due for a victory since it hasn’t lost consecutive games this season? Mike Tomlin’s squad has failed to cover in their first two home contests against the Browns and Buccaneers, while losing outright to Tampa Bay in Week 4 on a last-minute touchdown, 27-24 as 7 ½-point favorites. Oh by the way, that was the first win for the Buccaneers following an 0-3 start, one week after they were blasted, 56-14 at Atlanta.

The only convincing win for Pittsburgh came back in Week 3 at Carolina in a primetime tilt, 37-19 as the Steelers rushed for 264 yards. The Steelers blew the game open with 28 points in the second half as Pittsburgh tallied just 33 points in its other three road games combined at Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Cleveland.

These two teams last hooked up in Houston back in 2011, as the Texans held off the Steelers, 17-10 as four-point favorites. Arian Foster scored the go-ahead 42-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, as the Texans’ running back rushed for 155 yards in the victory. Houston is making its first trip to Heinz Field since opening day of the 2008 season, as the Steelers dominated the Texans, 38-17 to easily cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger tossed two touchdown passes to Hines Ward, as the Steelers and Texans have split four meetings since Houston entered the league in 2002.

Since Tomlin took over as head coach of the Steelers in 2007, Pittsburgh has won seven of nine Monday night contests, including perfect 4-0 record at home. The Steelers are hosting their first Monday night game since holding off the Chiefs in overtime in 2012 as 12 ½-point favorites, 16-13. Pittsburgh has covered only once in the four home victories in this span, but twice the Steelers were listed as double-digit favorites.

The Texans have put together a 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS record in their last seven Monday night appearances since 2008. In this period, Houston is winless in three chances as an underdog, while rallying past the Chargers in the opener of the 2013 campaign as five-point favorites, 31-28, the last time the Texans were featured on a Monday night.

The overriding theme of the primetime games through the first seven weeks has been high-scoring contests. The ‘over’ has cashed in 17 of 21 night games this season, including a 5-2 mark to the ‘over’ on Mondays. Last week’s ‘over’ was a fortunate one as the 49ers scored a defensive touchdown late in a 31-17 win with a total of 44.

The Texans and Steelers haven’t compiled many solid total trends on the season, with both teams going 3-3 to the ‘over.’ Pittsburgh has hit the ‘over’ in each of its two home games, extending a 5-1 ‘over’ stretch at Heinz Field since midway through last season.

The Steelers are currently listed as three-point favorites at many books, but you would have to lay -115 or -120 on Pittsburgh. The total has stayed steady at 44 ½, as temperatures are expected to be in the low 50’s with a 40% chance of rain. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 7

October 20, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 10-4

Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 11-3

Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 6-8


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 72-31-1

Against the Spread 54-47-3

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 51-43-1

Against the Spread 44-57-3

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 55-49


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Most betting shops closed Baltimore and Green Bay as seven-point home favorites and they both won and covered, rather easily too. The Ravens stifled the Falcons 29-7 while the Packers crushed the Panthers 38-17 in wire-to-wire fashion.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

St. Louis (+7) used trick plays to hold off Seattle 28-26. The Rams were listed as high as +250 (Bet $100 to win $250) on the money-line. It was the second straight loss for the Seahawks as healthy favorites.

Home Sweet Home

After watching the road teams dominate in Week 6, the hosts bounced back win an 8-1 SU mark in the early games. The lone road team to win in the early action on Sunday was Miami, who diced up Chicago 27-14 as a three-point road underdog.

The visitors bounced back in the afternoon as Kansas City (+3) defeated San Diego 23-20 with a late field goal and Arizona (-3.5) stopped Oakland 24-13.

Winning yet Losing

Including Thursday's outcome between the Patriots and Jets, the point-spread mattered in four games this week. New England, Washington, Buffalo and Detroit all won as favorites but they failed to cover the number.

The Bills were the most fortunate to win as they defeated Minnesota 17-16 on a touchdown reception with 1 second left in the game.

No Longer Winless

Jacksonville opened as a three-point underdog against Cleveland in Week 7 and the line had jumped all the way up to six points this week. On Sunday morning, the Jaguars received money and they closed as four-point home underdogs. The 0-6 club finally cashed as Jacksonville defeated the Browns 24-6 with a great defensive effort. Cleveland had 266 yards of total offense and was 4-of-17 (23%) on third down.

Same Old Raiders

Oakland lost a tough 31-28 decision to San Diego at home in Week 6. Despite the setback, the Raiders received attention at the betting counter in Week 7 and those bettors were fooled. Oakland couldn't run the ball at all quarterback Derek Carr looked like a rookie again as the Cardinals defeated the Raiders 24-13 as three-point road favorites. Oakland is now 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS.

Hot and Not

Indianapolis has won and covered five straight games.

Green Bay has won and covered four in a row and the 'over' has also cashed in all of these games.

Atlanta has gone 0-4 both SU and ATS in its last four games, losing all four games by double digits.

Totals

Week 6 watched the 'over' go 10-5 and those results could've been different if it wasn't for some wild outcomes.

In Week 7, bettors saw the opposite occur on Sunday as the 'under' produced a 8-4 record through the first 12 games.

Buffalo improved its 'under' record to 6-1 with another defensive gem at home.

Green Bay (6-1) and New Orleans (5-1) both leaned to the 'over' again.

Denver (5-1) dropped San Francisco (4-3) by a 42-17 score, as the Broncos saw the 'over' cash for a third straight game. And the 'over' is now 17-4 in 21 prime time games so far this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 20


Texans historically struggling ATS during MNF

Monday Night Football has historically not been kind to Houston Texans spread backers.

Houston is 0-6 against the spread in their last six Monday games. Ryan Fitzpatrick's club will travel to Heinz Field for a date with the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football action.

The Steelers are currently 3-point home faves with a total of 44.5.


Steelers going Over at Heinz Field

The Pittsburgh Steelers have kept the scoreboard operators at Heinz Field on their toes lately.

The Over is 5-1 in the Steelers' last six home games. The Houston Texans will face off against the black and gold in Pennsylvania in Monday Night Football action.

Pittsburgh is currently 3-point home faves, with the total set at 44.5.


Colts extend win streak, are on fire ATS

The 0-2 start is in Indianapolis' rear view mirror as they are now the hottest team, and bet, in the NFL.

With their impressive 27-0 rout of the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, the Colts extended their win and cover streak to five consecutive games.

They are now the NFL's best bet against the spread at 6-1 ATS and have been doing it easily during the streak covering by an average of 13.7 points per game.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday.......

13) Colts 27, Bengals 0-- Cincinnati is now 0-2-1 after a 3-0 start; they were awful in this game, with two first downs in first half, ten 3/outs on 13 drives. Bengals had 135 total yards, averaged 2.5 yards/pass attempt. Colts won their last five games.

12) Redskins 19, Titans 17-- Colt McCoy threw 70-yard TD pass on first play of second half, coning off bench to lead Washington to its second win. Tennessee lost five of its last six games after winning opener at Arrowhead. Redskins kicked FGs on all four of itd red zone drives.

11) Dolphins 27, Bears 14-- Chicago is now 0-3 at home this season; they were -3 in turnovers, were outgained 393-224. Jay Cutler completed just 3-of-11 passes for 52 yards and an interception on throws 15 or more yards downfield; the natives are restless in the Windy City, for sure.

10) Jaguars 24, Browns 6-- Cleveland got a rare win over rival Pittsburgh last week, lose to winless Jaguars this week; no bueno. Game was 10-6 until Jags scored couple TDs in 0:49 span of 4th quarter, on drives that totaled 15 yards of offense. Jaguars ran ball for 185 yards; they're getting better.

9) Rams 28, Seahawks 26--- St Louis jumped out to lead 21-3 thanks to a TD on a trick play on a punt return, then had to hold on for dear life, using a fake punt with 2:35 left to kill the clock and preserve their second win. Rams beat the defending champs with an even turnover ratio, a good sign.

8) Packers 38, Panthers 17-- Carolina won division with 12-4 record LY; they are 1-3-1 in last five games now, after a 2-0 start. Panthers were down 28-0 after 19:07 in this game, allowing 298 yards on 32 plays on Green Bay's first five drives. Pack won its last four games, averaging 36.3 ppg.

7) Ravens 29, Falcons 7-- Atlanta heads to London on a 4-game losing streak- they allowed 31.7 ppg in the four losses. Raiders fired their coach on the way home from England, since that trip is followed by a bye week; could Mike Smith be on his way out? Falcons ran ball for only 68 yards.

6) Bills 17, Vikings 16-- Buffalo converted 4th/20 and 2nd/20 plays on its winning drive, scoring TD with 0:01 left to send fans home happy. Very unusual that of the four teams with +2 or better turnover ratios this week, three of them lost. Not too hard to figure out that Orton is a big upgrade at QB over young EJ Manuel.

5) Lions 24, Saints 23-- Horrific loss for New Orleans, which lost its 7th straight regular season road game; they led 23-10 with 3:50 left, gave up a ridiculously easy 73-yard TD pass, then Brees threw an awful INT to set Detroit up at the 14-yard line for the winning score, which came on a 4th down play.

4) Chiefs 23, Chargers 20-- Andy Reid is now 12-2 in post-bye games, as Smith wins in his hometown, converting 7-14 on third down and not turning ball over (+1). Did San Diego get caught looking ahead to their Thursday night game in Denver?

3) Cowboys 31, Giants 21-- Murray is first RB ever to run for 100+ yards in first seven games of a season; they need to tone down his carries, or else he'll wind up like Jamal Anderson, who Falcons burned out by using too much. Dallas averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt, ran ball for 156 yards as they won their sixth game in row.

2) Cardinals 24, Raiders 13-- Arizona outgained Raiders 365-220, converted 9-15 on third down and extended its lead in NFC West with Seattle/49ers losing. Put the Cardinals' record under a more popular team's banner and they'd be laying a lot more than 3.5 points in games like this. Arizona is still undervalued.

1) Broncos 42, 49ers 17-- Manning set all-time TD pass record against team missing five of its eight starters at DB/LB; he replaced Jim Harbaugh as the Colts' QB back in 1998. If he throws a TD pass in every game the rest of the season, he'll break the record for most consecutive games with at least one TD pass.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 20


Packers offense clicking, resulting in over streak

Since Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers told everyone to relax and that Green Bay was fine, they have not been fine, they have been way better.

Green Bay has won four straight games, averaging more than 36 points per game, resulting in the Packers hitting the over in all four games during that streak.

Thanks to the streak the Packers are now the best over play in the NFL going 6-1 over/under so far this season.

Green Bay visits New Orleans next Sunday night, where the early total is sitting at 54.5.


49ers center Kilgore breaks leg, season likely over

Center Daniel Kilgore, whose strong play has been a bright spot for an inconsistent 49ers offense, is likely out for the season after sustaining a fractured left lower leg. Kilgore was the last 49ers player to exit the locker room late Sunday night. He had a cast on his left leg and required help to get into a cart for the ride to the bus.


Washington, Atlanta continue to disappoint backers

Washington and Atlanta, two teams looking for turnaround seasons have failed to do so and continue to disappoint their backers in the process.

Both teams have failed to cover the spread in four straight games and share the second worst record against the spread in the NFL at 2-5 ATS.

Washington failed to cover a 6-point spread in their 19-17 win against visiting Tennessee, while Atlanta got blown out by Baltimore 29-7 as 7-point underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 20


Chance of rain for MNF showdown in Pittsburgh

There could be some weather on tap for the Monday Night Football showdown in Pittsburgh when the Steelers welcome the Texans to town.

There is a 22 percent chance of rain and temperatures will be in the low 50's for the game. There will also be a slight six mile per hour wind gusting towards the northern end zone.

The is currently at Pittsburgh -3, while the total is sitting at 44.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 20

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Monday Night Football: Texans at Steelers
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Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 44.5)

Two of the league's top rushers go head-to-head when Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to Arian Foster and the Houston Texans on Monday night in a matchup of .500 teams. Bell ranks second in the league in rushing for the Steelers, who are plagued by a defense surrendering big plays both through the air and on the ground. Foster is third in the NFL for the Texans, who are in the midst of a two-game skid.

J.J. Watt may be having an MVP-type season but the Texans have yet to make good on their promising start. After winning just twice last year, Houston already has three wins but have since surrendered 694 yards through the air dropping back-to-back decisions to Dallas and Indianapolis. Aside from Watt, Houston is struggling ranked 27th in the league in total defense.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 4-point home favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total opened at 44.5, moved up to 45 for a short while before settling back at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT: Houston - LB Brian Cushing (probable Monday, knee), LB Jeff Tarpinian (questionable Monday, knee), LB Brooks Reed (questionable Monday, groin), LB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable Monday, knee), DB Darryl Morris (questionable Monday, ankle), LB Mike Mohamed (questionable Monday, calf), G Brandon Brooks (questionable Monday, ankle). Pittsburgh - WR Martavis Bryant (questionable Monday, shoulder), LB Ryan Shazzier (questionable Monday, knee), S Shamarko Thomas (questionable Monday, hamstring), S Mike Mitchell (questionable Monday, knee), DE Brett Kiesel (questionable Monday, knee), NT Steve McLendon (out Monday, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 54 percent chance of rain at game time, with temperatures in the low 50's. There will also be a 10 mile per hour wind blowing towards the north endzone.

POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+1) - Pittsburgh (+2) + home field (-3) = Pittsburgh -2

ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-3, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Houston hopes to get back the services of rookie linebacker and No.
1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney following knee surgery to bolster its pass defense. It could reap instant rewards as Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 11 times in the past three games. Offensively, the Texans have had their problems through the air as Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown six interceptions and just three touchdowns in his past four games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (3-3, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Pittsburgh hopes the beginning of a three-game homestand will remedy a shaky start which finds them sitting in the AFC North cellar. The Steelers have alternated wins and losses since starting the season with a 30-27 victory over Cleveland but lost to the Browns last week as Roethlisberger recorded a season-low 64.4 rating and threw his first interception in the last four games. Bell remains consistent, averaging 5.2 yards a carry, and star receiver Antonio Brown is just three yards behind Green Bay's Jordy Nelson for the league lead.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday night games.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-0 in the Texans last five games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in the Steelers last seven games in October.

CONSENSUS: Just over 59 percent of wagers are backing the Texans at +3.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 8:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Pittsburgh - Over 44 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Rated Plays:

6 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 16 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

4 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/20/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/19/14 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 40-*48-*2 45.45% -*6400

[StarDust Bum]

Seattle ruins teasers in Week 7

October 20, 2014

LAS VEGAS – A bonehead coaching move made by Seattle’s Pete Carroll early in the fourth quarter helped bettors cash in on the St. Louis Rams on Sunday while also knocking out teasers including the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Carroll opted to go for a 2-point conversion with 9:44 remaining in an attempt to tie up the game at 21-21, but his team ended up losing by that final margin 28-26 at St. Louis as 6.5-point favorites.

Johnny Avello,, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, pointed to that specific play as the game-changer. Avello believes it was too early for the Seahawks to go for two, although he was not surprised that Carroll made the decision due to his past history as the head coach at USC.

“The guy’s won a Super Bowl, but it’s one of those moves you don’t pull in the NFL,” Avello said. “It’s a college coach move. That’s just not the right thing to do. You go for the two later in the game. I knew Carroll would definitely get burned sooner or later by pulling some of this crap. In college you get away with it, in the pros it’s a lot more difficult.”

Heading into the weekend, Avello had noted that Week 7 was ripe for teaser opportunities with Seattle, the Indianapolis Colts (-3.5), Chicago Bears (-3.5), Green Bay Packers (-6.5), Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) as prime candidates to be included by bettors because they were popular teams sitting within one point of the key numbers 3 and 7. The Colts, Packers and Ravens all won big to easily cover the spread, but the Bears and Seahawks losing straight-up ended up helping The Wynn post a small profit.

“The Colts game was bad for us, the Bears game was a good game for us,” Avello said. “The Packers rolled, and Baltimore rolled. I think the game that knocked out some of the teasers was the Seattle game. The number came down a little bit, the bettors liked the Rams in that game. They thought the Rams had a chance in that one, and they were right. We were struggling for a lot of the day, and overall the day was a small win.”

After surprisingly trading wide receiver Percy Harvin away to the New York Jets on Friday, bettors decided to fade the Seahawks as they continued to struggle trying to find some offensive consistency. Without Harvin, Seattle looked out of sync early on, going down 21-3 before battling back in the second half to make a game of it. St. Louis had led 14-3 against the San Francisco 49ers just six days earlier on Monday Night Football before losing 31-17 but was able to hold on for its second win of the season.

The Seahawks no longer look like an unbeatable team with losses in each of their last two games. A daunting second-half schedule also awaits Seattle, including road matchups with the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals during a tough six-game stretch.

“I’m raising Seattle up, this is the highest you’re going to get Seattle in quite some time,” Avello said before moving the Seahawks to 7/1 to win the Super Bowl. “But the team’s 3-3, and they’re having a rough time on the road. Not that this team can’t still put it together, but the Broncos just look like the team right now. They just look fantastic.”

Speaking of Denver, Peyton Manning’s record-setting performance in a 42-17 rout of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football also helped The Wynn, according to Avello. Manning threw four touchdown passes to break Brett Favre’s all-time record of 508, and the Broncos cruised to an easy cover as 6.5-point home favorites.

“Believe it or not, we actually won that game,” Avello said. “We were sitting at 7 a lot, we took some 49er money going back, kind of held at the number and it kind of worked out for us. Surprisingly, winning that game with Denver winning and it going over is kind of unusual. But it worked ok.”