The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 27

Thursday's NCAA games
Dayton-Stanford is just the second 10-11 seed game ever; VCU upset Florida State 72-71 in OT (+4.5) in the other one three years ago. Flyers won their two games last weekend by total of three points; they split a pair of tilts with Pac-12 teams this season, beating Cal by 18 on Maui (Solomon didn't play for Cal) then lost at home to Pac-12 doormat USC. Dayton won 12 of last 14 games overall. Stanford won five of its last six games, allowing 55 ppg in pair of upset wins last week.

Wisconsin is 15-0 out of conference this year; Badgers are 11-2 in last 13 games overall- they beat West Va by 7 in only game vs Big X opponent. Ryan is 1-4 in regional semifinal games, with only win in '05; underdogs covered all five of those games. Baylor won 12 of last 14 games, beating Nebraska of Big Dozen in first round. #2 seeds are 5-8-1 vs spread in their last 14 regional semis. Since 2006, there have been only six 2-6 seed games in this round; underdogs were 4-1-1 vs spread in those games.

Billy Donovan won his last six regional semifinal games, covering five of them; Gators are 23-4 in last 27 NCAA tournament games- they've won 28 games in row, with last loss Dec 2 at UConn. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. UCLA won its last five games, four by 17+ points; they lost 80-71 at Missouri of SEC back in December, beat Alabama by 8 at home. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread.

Arizona (-3.5) won 69-60 at San Diego State Nov 14, holding Aztecs to 36% from floor, but Ashley played/Polee didn't that night. Wildcats are 9-2 in last 11 games- they held Weber/Gonzaga to 60 ppg last weekend. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread. Aztecs played 13-14 seeds last week, which is a help in advancing; they beat Washington by 7 in another Pac-12 game.

Other game
Towson State won nine of last ten games, winning last five on road, with wins by 3-6 points in this tournament. Tigers are 3-6 vs top 150 teams. Murray State started season 5-7, is 15-4 since- they've won 12 in a row at home since losing to Middle Tennessee in November. Racers are 1-6 against top 150 teams.

Friday's NCAA games
Over last 12 years, there have been four regional semifinal games with a 2-11 matchup; 2-seed won all four games, covering three. Tennessee won eight of last nine games, with only loss by 7 to Florida in SEC tourney; its 87-52 win over Virginia Dec 30 looks even better now. Michigan won nine of its last ten games; they're #6 in country, making 39.8% of its 3's, but this game is in a dome, which sometimes hurts shooters. Both sides here are in bottom 30 in country in tempo. Vols have experience edge.

Madison Square Garden will be home court for UConn, which played in Big East tourney there every year until this year. Napier injured his shin against Villanova, returned to court late in game, unsure if leg will be an issue here. Iowa State is without Niang, its best player; they made 12-26 from arc in win over UNC Sunday. Cyclones beat UConn 77-64 in 2012 NCAA tourney game. Over last 13 years, there were five 3-7 seed games in this round; underdog covered three of those five games.

Kentucky (+1.5) beat Louisville 73-66 at home Dec 28, in brickfest that saw teams go 9-40 from arc, 30-52 on foul line. This is the #1 rivalry in college hoop; teams aren't in same league but in same state. Cards won by 3 in LY's game, after losing twice to Kentucky year before, including 69-61 loss in national semis, Pitino's only loss in last 13 tourney games. Louisville won seven games in a row overall, 14 of last 15. Wildcats beat Wichita Sunday, their best effort of season; they've won four of last five, have also won eight straight NCAA tourney games and 15 of last 17.

Izzo coached against Tony Bennett's dad when he was at Wisconsin; he beat Badgers 53-41 in national semis in 2000, when Spartans won title. State won last five games, beating 13/12 seeds last week to get here; they split pair with ACC teams, losing at UNC, beating Va Tech. Virginia lost by 10 to Wisconsin in its only Big Dozen game; they play 6th-slowest pace in country. Izzo is 7-4 in this round, but got eliminated in regional semis last two years, by Louisville/Duke. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread.

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NCAAB

Thursday, March 27

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Trend Report
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7:15 PM
DAYTON vs. STANFORD
No trends available
Stanford is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Stanford is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

7:47 PM
BAYLOR vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 6 games
Wisconsin is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

8:00 PM
TOWSON vs. MURRAY STATE
Towson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Towson is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Murray State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Murray State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games

9:45 PM
UCLA vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games

10:17 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Diego State


Friday, March 28

7:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan's last 7 games
Michigan is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

7:27 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. IOWA STATE
No trends available
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 6 games

9:45 PM
KENTUCKY vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games
Louisville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky

9:57 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

March Madness Record:

20- 28.....................*****

19- 19.....................DOUBLE PLAY

14 - 13 - 1 ....................TRIPLE PLAY


Thursday, March 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dayton - 7:15 PM ET Dayton +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Stanford - Under 133.5 500

Baylor - 7:47 PM ET Baylor +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Wisconsin - Over 136 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Towson - 8:00 PM ET Towson +4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Murray St. - Under 147.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Late game:



UCLA 0 0th UCLA +4.5 500 *****

Florida 0 Over 139 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Diego St. - 10:17 PM ET San Diego St. +8 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Arizona - Under 121.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Numbers - Sweet 16

March 27, 2014


Line Value

- Our win percentage probability has Dayton vs. Stanford as a true 50/50 game yet Stanford is a 3.5 point favorite. There was a similar situation in the round of 64 in Memphis vs. George Washington. Our percentages had each team with an equal 50% chance of winning and Memphis was a four point favorite (giving George Washington the line advantage. Memphis had just a one-point lead with 10 seconds remaining before knocking down four late free throws and covering). Certainly Stanford is from the bigger conference and had solid games knocking off New Mexico and Kansas. But don't forget that Dayton also knocked off Ohio State and Syracuse en route to this sweet 16 matchup. The line value is with Dayton here.

- According to our winning percentage probability, UConn has a slight advantage (52%-to-48%) of advancing over Iowa State. The Huskies are a two-point underdog in this matchup despite having the better probability to win. Our percentages would have slightly favored the Cyclones if they wouldn't have lost forward Georges Niang. The loss of Niang - who was third on the team in points, assists, and blocks - puts ISU at a slight disadvantage here despite the fact that they are favored.

- Florida has a 72% chance of advancing over UCLA and is just a 4.5 point favorite in the South region. In the West, Arizona has a similar 73% chance of advancing over San Diego State and is a rather heavy 7.5 point favorite over the Aztecs. Throw in the fact that San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the country (ranked 7th in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings) and the fact that there's a familiarity from having already matched up with Arizona this year (lost by nine points but was a five point game with 30 seconds remaining) and there's definite line value with SDSU.

Sweet 16 Betting Notes

Florida vs. UCLA

- Florida remains the favorite in the field of 64 with an 18% probability to win the championship.

- According to Ken Pomeroy's possession data, the Gators' grinding defense holds opposing offenses to 20.2 seconds per possession, the 2nd longest in the NCAA.

- UCLA ranks 12th in adjusted offense efficiency, 10th in points per game, and 9th in field goal percentage. They average 15 seconds per offensive possession, among the 15 fastest teams in the country.

Dayton vs. Stanford

- The Cardinal held New Mexico to just 36.5% field goals and 4-of-21 from three point range. They then held Kansas to 32.8% field goals and 5-of-16 from three point range.

- Among Stanford's starters are a 6'11" center, a 6'10" power forward, a 6'7" small forward, and it brings 6'10" forward off the bench, forming one of tallest teams in the country.

- Dayton only has two players taller than 6'7" that receive notable playing time.

Virginia vs. Michigan State

- A lot of people felt Michigan State was under-seeded as a 4-seed and this game basically proves it. Whereas No. 1 seeds Florida & Arizona have 72% and 73% win probability over No. 4 seeds UCLA and San Diego State, respectively; No. 4 seed Michigan State has a 51% win probability over No. 1 seed Virginia here.

- MSU can score from all over the court. They shoot nearly 40% from three-point range as a team and they are just as good in transition as they are in the half-court.

- Virginia ranks among the top-10 best teams in opponents' effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding rate, 2-point shooting and points per possession.

Iowa State vs. UConn

- The highest total of the sweet 16 is set in this game at 146.5.

- ISU lost forward Georges Niang (16.7 PPG) in the round of 64 but still scored 85 points against North Carolina without him.

- The Huskies made 20-of-44 three pointers and 40-of-48 free throws in back-to-back wins to get here. Guard Shabazz Napier is averaging 24.5 PPG through the two games

Arizona vs. San Diego State

- The lowest total of the sweet 16 is set in this game at 122.5.

- Arizona has the No. 1 adjusted defensive rating and they allow just .886 points per possession. They are No. 2 in opponents' true shooting percentage.

- San Diego State ranks 202nd in true shooting percentage on offense.

Baylor vs. Wisconsin

- Wisconsin's offense ranks 4th in adjusted efficiency and Baylor's ranks 6th.

- Baylor's zone limited Nebraska and Creighton to make just 9-of-45 (20 percent) attempts from three-point range.

- Wisconsin made 21-of-51 (41.1 percent) three point attempts in its two wins.

Kentucky vs. Louisville

- Kentucky ranks 5th nationally in free throws attempted per game and they are the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country.

- Louisville forces 17.4 turnovers per game, good for 2nd nationally. Kentucky turns it over 12.2 times per game - ranked 171st.

- Kentucky had +8 rebounds, one fewer turnover, attempted eight more free throws, and held Louisville to just 6-of-26 three-pointers in the first meeting this season - a seven point Kentucky win.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

- Tennessee ranks 3rd nationally in rebounding margin. Michigan ranks 175th.

- The Vols have won eight of the last nine (only loss to No. 1 Florida) and have covered seven of those games.

- Michigan makes 8.6 three pointers per game (15th nationally) on 39.8% efficiency beyond the arc (6th nationally).

[StarDust Bum]

Midwest Regional Semifinals

March 27, 2014


East Regional Semifinals

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Tennessee (24-12) vs. Michigan (27-8)

NCAA Tournament: Midwest Regional, Sweet 16
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Tip-off: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan -2.5, Total: 133.5

No. 11 seed Tennessee looks to advance to the Elite Eight as it takes on second-seeded Michigan Friday in a Midwest semifinal in Indianapolis.

Tennessee barely made the NCAA Tournament Field, as the club was selected to play in the First Four, but this is now a legitimate contender to make the Final Four. The Volunteers' frontcourt has been dynamite, and enters Friday with 38.8 RPG (20th in nation). They are 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) in their past nine contests, with the only loss coming to No. 1 overall seed Florida by seven points in the SEC semifinals. But since then, Tennessee has been rolling in the NCAA Tournament, winning its three games by an average of 17.3 PPG, while scoring 82.3 PPG on 49.1% FG. The Vols are now 19-13-2 ATS (59%) overall this season, including 8-5-1 ATS in non-conference play and a stellar 6-2 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court.

The Wolverines are also red-hot, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in their past 10 contests, including wins by 17 and 14 points in the NCAA Tournament. They are now 18-14-1 ATS (56%) overall this season, including 6-5-1 versus non-conference teams and 4-4-1 ATS (7-2 SU) on a neutral court. The biggest strength for Michigan is its ability to shoot the ball, as the team ranks 27th in the country with its 47.5% FG clip. This has allowed the team to thrive despite its lack of great post presence since PF Mitch McGary was injured early in the season.

Both teams have favorable coaching trends here, as Cuonzo Martin is 22-9 ATS (71%) after having won four of the previous five games as the Tennessee head coach, while John Beilein is an impressive 18-4 ATS (82%) in NCAA Tournament games as Michigan's head coach.

The Volunteers come into the game averaging 72.3 PPG (130th in nation) on 45.1% FG (131st in Div. I), despite a poor 32.6% clip from three-point range (238th in nation). Defensively the team holds teams to a mere 61.4 PPG (17th in Div. I) on 41.0% FG (56th in nation).

SF Jarnell Stokes (15.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.1 APG) has been an absolute beast in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament, averaging 20.3 PPG and 15.0 RPG. Stokes is an imposing figure at 6-foot-8, 260 pounds with the strength to overpower his opponents.

However, another thing that makes Stokes so effective is his teammate in the paint is PF Jeronne Maymon (9.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG) who shoots 54% from the field. While he is not a highly skilled offensive player, Maymon simply outworks his opponent, tallying 8.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG in the NCAAs. This duo's ability to dominate the glass plays a huge role for the team because it allows the wing players to have the confidence to put up shots.

Leading scorer SG Jordan McRae (18.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) is never afraid to shoot, posting 18.3 PPG in the NCAAs despite a paltry 4-of-18 clip (22%) from three-point range. For the season, he shoots a pedestrian 43% FG and 36% threes. At 6-foot-6, he is a very difficult guard as he can score over opposing guards, and is too athletic for forwards to stay in front of him when he drives to the basket. Josh Richardson (10.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG) had a solid regular season for the Volunteers, but has been on an absolute tear in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.3 PPG on 61% FG. Against Mercer on Sunday, he finished with 26 points (9-of-13 FG) as he was consistently getting to the rim.

PG Antonio Barton (7.7 PPG, 2.1 APG) transferred from Memphis for this season, and has given the Volunteers a solid senior guard running the show with a 2.2 Ast/TO ratio and less than one turnover per game. Tennessee is a veteran team that is playing its best basketball of the season, and will present the Wolverines with a lot of problems.

While Michigan has been a great team this season, it has had major problems on the glass, ranking 175th in the nation in rebounding margin (+0.5 RPG). The absence of PF Mitch McGary, who was instrumental in the team's run to last year's NCAA title game, has played a huge role in the struggles on the boards, as he was averaging 8.3 RPG before his injury. However, this is still a terrific offensive team, averaging 74.0 PPG (81st in Div. I) and 8.6 made threes per game (16th in nation) on an impressive 39.8% clip (7th in Div. I).

SG Nik Stauskas (17.4 PPG, 3.3 APG) has taken his game to the next level. While he remains an elite outside shooter (45% threes), his ability to get to the rim has made him one of the top scorers in the country. He has scored at least 15 points in 10 straight games, including 16.0 PPG on 7-of-15 threes in the two NCAA Tournament wins.

PF Glenn Robinson III (13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is one of the most athletic forwards in the country, but will need to play much more physical against the Volunteers' big bodies inside. So far in the tourney, he's averaging 14.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG.

PF Jordan Morgan (6.0 PPG, 69% FG, 5.0 RPG) did not play a huge role during the season, but has played some terrific basketball in the NCAA Tournament with 12.5 PPG (8-of-13 FG, 9-of-11 FT) and 10.0 RPG, tallying double-doubles in both games.

If the Wolverines can get big performances from guys like SG Caris LeVert (13.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.8 APG) and freshman PG Derrick Walton Jr. (8.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.9 APG), they will be difficult to guard. LeVert (41% threes) teams with Stauskas to form one of the elite shooting duos in the country, while Walton Jr. has stepped into the point guard role as a freshman, and played very well at times with a respectable 1.9 Ast/TO ratio. Walton has also shown the ability to play better in bigger games with just six turnovers in five postseason games. If he is able to win the battle against Barton, Michigan will be in great shape to get the victory.

Kentucky (26-10) vs. Louisville (31-5)

NCAA Tournament: Midwest Regional, Sweet 16
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -4.5, Total: 139

Defending national champion Louisville will continue its rivalry with Kentucky on Friday with an Elite Eight berth on the line.

These two teams met in their annual regular season game, and it was the Wildcats that were able to get the 73-66 victory on Dec. 28 in Lexington. Kentucky had four guys scoring at least 10 points in the win, with SG James Young and PG Andrew Harrison each netting 18 points. Kentucky also had a big advantage on the glass, outrebounding the Cardinals, 44-36, and holding them to a paltry 39.7% FG. One thing the Wildcats will have to do better in this game is hit their free throws, as they connected on only 16-of-30 from the line. Kentucky is coming off a huge win against previously undefeated Wichita State, as this young team showed how much it has grown throughout its up-and-down season. The experienced Shockers had a 6-point lead at the half, but UK used another balanced scoring attack to get the win. PF Julius Randle had a double-double in the game, and will look to continue that against the defending champions. For the season, the Wildcats are an even 17-17 ATS overall, going 7-6 ATS in non-conference play, while posting a strong 6-2 ATS mark on a neutral court.

Louisville got more than it bargained for in the tournament opener against Manhattan in a narrow 71-64 win, but bounced back with a convincing 66-51 victory against Saint Louis. SF Luke Hancock scored 21 points in the win against the Billikens, and is starting to play the same basketball that he did during the Cardinals' title run last season. His team is now 19-14-1 ATS (58%) overall, including 7-6 ATS versus non-conference opponents and 4-3 ATS on a neutral court.

Both teams have positive betting trends, as Kentucky is 18-8 ATS (69%) after a win by six points or less under head coach John Calipari, while Louisville is an impressive 15-3 ATS (80%) in March games over the past two seasons.

The Wildcats are a dominating team on the glass, ranking second in the nation with a +9.8 RPG margin. The offense of Kentucky has been solid, as it ranks 61st among Division-I teams in scoring (75.2 PPG) but shoots just 45.2% FG (125th in nation) and 32.7% threes (231st in Div. I). However, the club is always attacking the rim, as it leads the nation in free-throw attempts. The defense allows just 66.4 PPG (78th in Div. I) on 40.6% FG (40th in nation) thanks to 222 blocks (5th in Div. I). After a March 1 loss to South Carolina, there were doubts on whether or not the Wildcats would be able to make any noise in the NCAA Tournament.

However, the freshmen have turned things around, especially PF Julius Randle (15.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG), who is capable of going off for a double-double on any given night. His soft shooting touch brings opposing power forwards out from the basket, but Randle mostly uses his muscle to get easy put-backs inside. After scoring just four points in the SEC Tournament finals loss to Florida, he has bounced back in the NCAA Tournament with a pair of double-doubles (16.0 PPG, 12.5 RPG).

SG James Young (14.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.8 APG) is the wild card on this team, as he is the best outside shooter (34% threes). While the freshman can be inconsistent with his shot, when he is on, the Wildcats become a scary offense.

SG Aaron Harrison (14.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 APG) and PG Andrew Harrison (11.0 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG) have continued to improve throughout the season, and can create major mismatches with their 6-foot-6 height and athleticism.

The Wildcats average 12.3 turnovers per game (175th in nation) this season, and must limit that number if they are going to move on to the Elite Eight.

Experience can play a huge role at this time in the season, and the Cardinals have as much as any team left in the tournament. Louisville comes into the game ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (81.4 PPG) on 47.0% FG (39th in Div. I) and is also 14th in defense (60.7 PPG) on 39.5% FG (19th in nation) and 28.6% threes (3rd in Div. I) for the country's largest scoring margin of +20.6 PPG. This is an extremely efficient team on both ends of the court, as it leads the nation in turnover margin (+6.8) thanks largely to its 10.1 SPG (2nd in Div. I).

PG Russ Smith (18.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.3 RPG) is the type of player that can take over a game and will his team to a victory, but he has struggled a bit in the NCAAs, averaging 14.5 PPG on 6-of-19 FG (32%) in two tournament games. If Louisville is going to have a chance to make it to Dallas to defend its title, Smith will have to get back to playing his basketball. He is a fearless competitor who will look to get to the rim the entire game despite being just 5-foot-11. If he is able to get going early and get some easy baskets, then the Cardinals' entire team seems to become more confident.

PF Montrezl Harrell (14.0 PPG, 61% FG, 8.4 RPG) has been on a tear as of late with three straight double-doubles (14.7 PPG, 11.7 RPG), and has the strength and athleticism to match up with guys like Randle in the post. While Harrell has done a good job on the offensive end, it is his defense that has been the most important to the team during this postseason run, tallying 2.7 BPG in his past three contests.

With guys like SF Luke Hancock (12.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG) and SG Chris Jones (10.4 PPG, 3.0 APG) both capable of having big games, this is a difficult offense to contain. Hancock showed what he can do on the big stage last season, bringing the Cardinals back from a big deficit to Michigan in the national title, and he has started off the 2014 NCAA Tournament with 18.5 PPG (11-of-12 FT), 3.5 RPG and 3.5 APG. Jones is a junior-college transfer, but has helped the Cardinals ease the loss of Peyton Siva. Jones is similar to Smith, as he is extremely aggressive at getting to the rim, and drains 77% of his free throws. He has scored 11 points in three straight games, but has made just 9-of-30 FG (30%) during this stretch. If the Cardinals' backcourt is able to dictate the tempo of the game, then Rick Pitino’s squad has a great chance to win.

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East Regional Semifinals

March 27, 2014


Midwest Regional Semifinals

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Connecticut (28-8) vs. Iowa State (28-7)

NCAA Tournament: East Regional, Sweet 16
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Iowa State -1.5, Total: 146

Following a 77-65 win against East region No. 2 seed Villanova, seventh-seeded Connecticut will look to pull off another upset as it heads to Madison Square Garden for a showdown with Iowa State’s ultra-productive offense.

With SU and ATS wins against Saint Joseph’s (in overtime) and Villanova in the first two games of the tournament, the Huskies are now 4-1 ATS in their past five games and 17-5 SU in the past 22 contests, with three of those five defeats coming to Louisville. That improves their season-long mark to 19-15 ATS with a 7-6 ATS record against non-conference opponents. Despite some inconsistencies during AAC play, Connecticut has shown a penchant for beating top teams all season with wins against NCAA Tournament teams such as Florida, Villanova, Memphis (three times) and Cincinnati (twice). UConn is 8-1 SU (4-5 ATS) on neutral courts this season.

But containing Iowa State, which beat UNC Central and North Carolina to reach the Sweet 16, will be a difficult task. The Cyclones have covered in six straight games, shooting above 44% from three-point range in each of their past five contests. The streak has pushed Iowa State to 17-15-1 ATS this season, including a dominant non-conference record of 14-0 SU (8-3-1 ATS). The Cyclones are now 9-0 SU (6-2-1 ATS) at neutral sites.

When these two teams met in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, eight-seeded ISU won and covered by a 77-64 score against the ninth-seeded Huskies.

Both teams have favorable coaching trends for this matchup, as UConn is 10-2 ATS in non-home games versus good teams (4+ PPG margin) after 15+ games in a season under head coach Kevin Ollie, while Iowa State is 15-2 ATS after a win by six points or less under head coach Fred Hoiberg.

Connecticut’s offense doesn’t stack up to Iowa State’s, averaging 72.5 PPG (121st in Div. I) on 44.8% shooting (138th in nation), but this club has been outstanding from the foul line (76.5%, 7th in Div. I). But the strength of this club is its stingy defense, giving up 63.7 PPG (37th in Div. I) on 38.9% FG (11th in nation) thanks to a whopping 6.0 BPG (12th in Div. I).

Senior PG Shabazz Napier (17.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG) leads the Huskies in all three major categories, stepping up during the first two games of the tournament with 24.5 PPG. He scored a game-high 22 points in the 2012 NCAA Tournament loss to Iowa State, hitting 3-of-5 threes while adding a game-high six assists.

He’s joined on the perimeter by SG Ryan Boatright (11.9 PPG, 3.5 APG) and ultra sharpshooter Niels Giffey (8.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG), who is hitting an incredible 52% threes this season.

Down low, PF DeAndre Daniels (12.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is their top scorer, but he can also stretch defenses, hitting 45% threes. When he steps outside, 7-foot freshman C Amida Brimah (4.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG) can hit the glass and protect the hoop, pacing the team with 2.4 BPG in only 16.5 MPG.

Iowa State’s 83.2 PPG (5th in nation) come from 47.5% FG (28th in Div. I) and a nation-leading 18.5 APG. The Cyclones drain 8.4 threes per game (21st in nation) on a solid 35.8% shooting from beyond the arc, but are not great from the line at 69.8% FT. Their quick offense can hurt their defense too, yielding 74.2 PPG (279th in Div. I) on 41.8% FG (83rd in nation) and 35.8% threes (103rd in Div. I).

Senior PG DeAndre Kane (17.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.8 APG) runs the offense, pacing the team in passing, and ranking second in scoring.

Freshman SG Monte Morris (6.6 PPG, 3.7 APG) helps Kane play off the ball and will need to facilitate even more with SF Georges Niang (16.7 PPG) now out for the season with a broken foot. Niang’s absence only puts more pressure on leading scorer PF Melvin Ejim (18.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG), who along with PF Dustin Hogue (10.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG) attacks the glass extremely effectively.

Niang’s absence could also create more opportunities for SG Naz Long (7.1 PPG) to sit on the perimeter, as he did against North Carolina when he drained 4-of-8 threes for 12 points. At 41% threes, he is the only Cyclones player who shoots better than 40% from three-point range, making the team’s recent hot outside shooting even more of a surprise.

Michigan State (28-8) vs. Virginia (30-6)

NCAA Tournament: East Regional, Sweet 16
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:55 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -1.5, Total: 126.5

Fourth-seeded Michigan State enters its Sweet 16 matchup against No. 1 seed Virginia as a slight favorite to advance to the Elite Eight.

The Spartans enter this one having won five straight SU, going 3-1-1 ATS in that span, but are 0-1-1 ATS in the tournament in their wins against Delaware and Harvard. Now at full strength—a rare occasion for this team this season—Michigan State is 21-13-1 ATS despite a 6-7-1 ATS mark against non-conference opponents. They are 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS on neutral courts.

While the Spartans are a trendy pundit pick, the Cavaliers are tough to shake, having won 18 of their past 19 games, taking the ACC regular season and tournament titles in the process. This run has improved Virginia to a stellar 20-11-1 ATS on the season, but the Cavaliers have had their struggles in non-conference play, now 4-7 ATS (11-4 SU) against non-conference foes following a 1-1 ATS start to the NCAA Tournament in wins against Coastal Carolina and Memphis.

These two programs last met in 2002 when Michigan State won and covered 82-75. While Michigan State is a stellar 11-2 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams (12 or fewer forced TO per game) this season, Virginia has gone 10-0 ATS after 15+ games this season versus teams making at least 45% FG.

Michigan State’s unselfish offense with 17.0 APG (6th in Div. I) averages 76.5 PPG (45th in Div. I) on 47.7% shooting (22nd in nation) and 39.3% threes (16th in Div. I). Per usual, Tom Izzo’s defense is stingy, yielding only 65.9 PPG (66th in nation) on 40.0% FG (24th in Div. I). This is also a top-notch rebounding team with a +5.4 RPG margin (21st in nation).

Their star so far in the NCAA Tournament has been senior PF Adreian Payne (16.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG), who put up a whopping 41 points in the team’s opening round win against Delaware. The 6-foot-10 big man is a good shooter too (44% threes), but can also bruise down low with his 245-pound frame.

While Payne came back down to earth against Harvard on Sunday with a mere 12 points, SF Branden Dawson (11.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG), who leads the team in rebounding, stepped up with a 26-point performance on 12-of-15 shooting.

The team's leading scorer is SG Gary Harris (16.9 PPG), who is as athletic as they come, which shows on the defensive end where he averages 1.9 SPG. SG Travis Trice (7.6 PPG, 45% threes) joins him as a sharpshooter in the backcourt while SG Denzel Valentine (8.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.9 APG) makes up for his poor shooting with his passing and rebounding abilities.

The key to whether this team can seriously contend though, may be the performance of PG Keith Appling (11.7 PPG, 4.6 APG). The senior must improve from his play in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, averaging 3.0 PPG on 33% shooting so far.

Virginia’s offense can be tough to watch but the team features the top scoring defense in the nation at 55.5 PPG, with opponents hitting only 38.6% FG (9th in Div. I). The team's slow play hurts its offensive numbers, scoring only 66.4 PPG (280th in nation) on 45.7% shooting (94th in Div. I), but it does make 37.0% threes (69th in nation) and commits a paltry 10.1 turnovers per game (20th in Div. I). The Cavaliers are also an excellent rebounding team with a +6.2 RPG margin, good for 15th in the nation.

Sophomore SG Malcolm Brogdon (12.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.7 APG) is the team’s top scorer and is averaging 12.0 PPG and 4.5 APG through the first two games of the NCAA Tournament.

But last season's leading scorer, SG Joe Harris (11.8 PPG, 41% threes) led the team to the Sweet 16 with a 16-point performance in Sunday's Round of 32 win against Memphis. He has hit at least two three-point baskets in five consecutive games.

Their biggest surprise offensively lately has been SF Anthony Gill (8.8 PPG 4.1 RPG), who has reached double figures in six consecutive games, averaging 13.8 PPG in that span. He also grabbed a team-high eight boards against Memphis. Gill is joined down low by PF Akil Mitchell (6.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG), who doesn’t take many shots, but is efficient with the ones he takes (57.2% FG). This includes his incredible 81.3% FG clip in the team’s past five contests.

Opposing teams also can’t ignore PG London Perrantes (5.4 PPG, 3.8 APG), who is mostly a passer, but hits one three per game on a 44% clip. He can capitalize if given the opportunity, as he has shown this tournament with 10.0 PPG on 63% shooting from long distance.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo:Friday's six-pack

-- Dayton 82, Stanford 72-- Jordan Sibert couldn't play for Ohio State?

-- Wisconsin 69, Baylor 52-- At one point this winter, Badgers lost five out of six games. Seems like a long time ago.

-- Florida 79, UCLA 68-- Gators are first team since Kentucky ('96-'99) to reach Elite 8 four years in a row.

-- Arizona 70, San Diego State 64-- Nick Johnson was 0-10 at one point; he scored 15 points down stretch, pulling Wildcats thru tough game.

-- Justin Verlander/Miguel Cabrera will be making a combined $59M a year until 2019. For two guys.

-- Tampa Bay's entire 2013 payroll: $61,928,975. For a playoff team.

*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind......

13) At $31M a year, and figuring 32 starts a year, Clayton Kershaw will earn roughly $968,750 per start over the length of his contract; well, he’s already scratched from start #2 with a back problem. Not a good start to this season, or the lucrative contract.

12) Its amazing how much coverage ESPN gives the NFL; a half hour show every weekday in March? By the way, I’m hoping the 2014 schedule is out by the time I get to Las Vegas in 17 days.

11) Johnny Manziel threw in helmet and pads at his on-campus pro day; why doesn’t everyone do this? There really is a wildly varying difference of opinion on his NFL prospects. I think he's going to be good.

10) Cleveland Browns must have their minds made up on Manziel, seeing as they didn’t bother to show up at his pro day. Rumor has them bringing Manziel to Cleveland for a day next month, but still, you’d think they’d like to gather all the information they can.

9) Tyler Ennis is going pro? Already? Very bad news for Syracuse.

8) Surprised to read about dysfunction in the Golden State Warriors’ camp; ownership hasn’t given Mark Jackson a contract extension, even though he’s helped them improve a lot, because they’re expecting even more than they’re getting. Maybe they should petition for a move to the Eastern Conference and their prospects would improve a lot. Seriously, meddling bosses are a pain in the butt, in any career.

7) Stanford was 500-1 to win the NCAA tournament before it started; wins over New Mexico/Kansas dropped the Cardinal to 70-1. Dayton dropped the Cardinal right out of the tournament. Will the Flyers be able to keep its coach Archie Miller, or will a big money school steal him away?

6) NC-Wilmington hired Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts as its new head coach; Keats was head coach at Hargrave Military Academy, a bigtime prep school, for ten years, but his bio on the Louisville website lists him as a 2011 graduate of Marshall.

Looks like his college playing days ended in 1996, at the latest. Wonder if he quick cleaned up his bio once the Steve Masiello debacle hit the fan?

5) Pacers-Heat game Wednesday night earned ESPN its second biggest NBA ratings night this season.

4) Red flag for the Pacers; Evan Turner was 4-10 from the floor in the Miami game; other three Indiana subs who played were a combined 1-10. They’ll need lot more bench production if they get into a best-of-7 series with Miami, or the Nets for that matter.

3) Zach Bohannon doesn’t play a lot for the Wisconsin Badgers, but he’s been in 13 games this year. Arena security wouldn’t let him into Wisconsin’s closed shoot around until he took the label off his bottled water, since he didn’t have NCAA-approved water, which is very hard to believe, but apparently it happened.

I mean it’s a closed shoot around; who was going to see his water bottle?

2) Anyone know which network televises The Masters?

1) Miguel Cabrera signed a 10-year, $298M contract with the Tigers, whose owner (Mike Ilitch) is 84 years old. Am guessing Ilitch wants to see the Tigers win a World Series before its too late for him. If this becomes a bad contract eight years from now, chances are it won't be Ilitch's problem.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

FRIDAY, MARCH 28

Game 875-876: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.610; Iowa State 72.616
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 1 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1 1/2); Over

Game 877-878: Michigan State vs. Virginia (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.838; Virginia 73.158
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2); Under

Game 879-880: Tennessee at Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 70.456; Michigan 76.396
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 6; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2); Over

Game 881-882: Kentucky vs. Louisville (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.430; Louisville 73.049
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 28

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CONNECTICUT (28 - 8) vs. IOWA ST (28 - 7) - 3/28/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA ST is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
IOWA ST is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (28 - 8) vs. VIRGINIA (30 - 6) - 3/28/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (24 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (27 - 8) - 3/28/2014, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 102-69 ATS (+26.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (26 - 10) vs. LOUISVILLE (31 - 5) - 3/28/2014, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday, March 28

Connecticut vs. Iowa State, 7:25 ET
Connecticut: 14-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less
Iowa State: 2-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive over

Michigan State vs. Virginia, 9:55 ET
Michigan State: 12-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite
Virginia: 26-46 ATS in March games

Tennessee vs. Michigan, 7:15 ET
Tennessee: 32-52 ATS in all tournament games
Michigan: 19-8 ATS in a post-season tournament game

Kentucky vs. Louisville, 9:45 ET
Kentucky: 8-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5
Louisville: 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 28

Friday's NCAA games
Over last 12 years, there have been four regional semifinal games with a 2-11 matchup; 2-seed won all four games, covering three. Tennessee won eight of last nine games, with only loss by 7 to Florida in SEC tourney; its 87-52 win over Virginia Dec 30 looks even better now. Michigan won nine of its last ten games; they're #6 in country, making 39.8% of its 3's, but this game is in a dome, which sometimes hurts shooters. Both sides here are in bottom 30 in country in tempo. Vols have experience edge.

Madison Square Garden will be home court for UConn, which played in Big East tourney there every year until this year. Napier injured his shin against Villanova, returned to court late in game, unsure if leg will be an issue here. Iowa State is without Niang, its best player; they made 12-26 from arc in win over UNC Sunday. Cyclones beat UConn 77-64 in 2012 NCAA tourney game. Over last 13 years, there were five 3-7 seed games in this round; underdog covered three of those five games.

Kentucky (+1.5) beat Louisville 73-66 at home Dec 28, in brickfest that saw teams go 9-40 from arc, 30-52 on foul line. This is the #1 rivalry in college hoop; teams aren't in same league but in same state. Cards won by 3 in LY's game, after losing twice to Kentucky year before, including 69-61 loss in national semis, Pitino's only loss in last 13 tourney games. Louisville won seven games in a row overall, 14 of last 15. Wildcats beat Wichita Sunday, their best effort of season; they've won four of last five, have also won eight straight NCAA tourney games and 15 of last 17.

Izzo coached against Tony Bennett's dad when he was at Wisconsin; he beat Badgers 53-41 in national semis in 2000, when Spartans won title. State won last five games, beating 13/12 seeds last week to get here; they split pair with ACC teams, losing at UNC, beating Va Tech. Virginia lost by 10 to Wisconsin in its only Big Dozen game; they play 6th-slowest pace in country. Izzo is 7-4 in this round, but got eliminated in regional semis last two years, by Louisville/Duke. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread.




NCAAB

Friday, March 28

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Trend Report
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7:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan's last 7 games
Michigan is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

7:27 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. IOWA STATE
No trends available
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 6 games

9:45 PM
KENTUCKY vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games
Louisville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky

9:57 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, March 28

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Friday's Sweet 16 betting cheat sheet
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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 134)

Tennessee needed to sneak past the Big Ten’s Iowa in overtime in the first round just to make the field of 64 but wasted little time proving it belonged. Jarnell Stokes is averaging 20.3 points and 15 rebounds in the Volunteers’ three NCAA tournament games and will need all the points he can find to keep up with Wolverines stars Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III. Stokes has recorded 21 double-doubles on the season and is shooting 56.2 percent from the field in the NCAA tournament.

Michigan’s bid for a second straight trip to the Final Four is entering the second weekend of the NCAA tournament as the second-seeded Wolverines cruised through to the Sweet 16. Wolverines forward Jordan Morgan grabbed 10 rebounds in each of the first two tournament games and will be tasked with keeping Stokes off the boards on Thursday. Morgan being active on the inside opens up space on the perimeter for Stauskas, who buried four 3-pointers against Texas as Michigan went 14-of-28 from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Wolverines are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-2 in Volunteers lastseven7 NCAA Tournament games.


Connecticut Huskies vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-2, 146)

The seventh-seed Huskies have made the most of their return to the postseason following a one-year ban for academic sanctions, upending second-seed Villanova 77-65 in the third round as Shabazz Napier scored 21 of his 25 points in the second half. apier averages 17.8 points per game and shot 9-for-13 from the field in the second round, showing he can carry the Huskies almost single-handedly. But the Huskies also rely on a strong defense that holds opponents to 38.9 percent shooting from the field (11th nationally) and averages six blocked shots per contest (12th in the country).

Iowa State is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in 14 years, but will have to overcome the loss of one of its top players to reach the Elite Eight. The third-seed Cyclones face Connecticut in the East regional semifinals Friday in New York City without forward Georges Niang, who averaged 20.4 points in his previous five games before breaking his right foot in Iowa State’s second-round victory over North Carolina Central. Niang is lost for the rest of the season but DeAndre Kane helped ease the blow in the Cyclones’ 85-83 victory over North Carolina in the third round, scoring 24 points with 10 rebounds and seven assists.

TRENDS:

* Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Cyclones last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.


Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 138.5)

Eighth-seeded Kentucky is coming off a three-point win over top-seeded and undefeated Wichita State - a game in which four of the Wildcats' starting freshmen had strong games, led by Andrew Harrison's 20 points. Prior to their 4-1 stretch over the last two weeks, the Wildcats had lost three of four - including embarrassing defeats to Arkansas and South Carolina - as questions began to mount about the talent and character of their heralded freshman class.

The Cardinals' win over the Saint Louis Billikens was far from a work of art, as the team overcame 16-of-24 shooting from the foul line and 19 turnovers, including seven by Smith. "Everything's not going to be sweet or pretty," the senior guard said. "We're just getting the job done." Montrezl Harrell has produced most of the season, and the sophomore forward enters this contest with three straight double-doubles, including a dominant 22-point, 11-rebound effort against Connecticut in the American Athletic Association tournament title game.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.


Michigan State Spartans vs. Virginia Cavaliers (+1.5, 127)

Despite drawing a No. 4 seed in the East region, Michigan State was considered by many the NCAA tournament favorite while top-seeded Virginia had the misfortune of winding up in the same part of the bracket. One game after Adreian Payne torched Delaware for a career-high 41 points in the second round, fellow forward Branden Dawson posted a personal-best 26 points in Michigan State’s victory over Harvard. “(Payne’s) ability to shoot (the 3-pointer) and what he's added to his game is impressive. He's quite a threat,” Cavaliers coach Tony Bennett told the school’s official website.

The Cavaliers claimed both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles for the first time in school history and rebounded from a shaky second-round victory over No. 16 seed Coastal Carolina with a dominant win over eighth-seeded Memphis. The Cavaliers’ “pack-line” defense held Memphis 17 points below its season average in last Sunday’s 78-60 win, maintaining their status as the best scoring defense in Division I (55.5 points). “They're probably the best defensive team I've ever played against in college. They help each other out every possession; you will never get an easy layup on them,” Memphis senior guard Joe Jackson told reporters afterward.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Cavaliers are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in Cavaliers last nine neutral site games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, March 28

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NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Izzo knows Bennett well
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No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (-1.5, 127)

The Virginia Cavaliers’ pack-line defense, designed to protect driving lanes and keep opponents out of the key, gave Memphis fits Sunday. The Tigers shot just 40 percent from the field and scored 18 points below their season average. The defense’s one weakness though is on the perimeter and contesting longer-range shots. The Spartans just so happen to be the country’s 14th best 3-point shooting team, knocking them down at a 39.3 percent clip.

Despite not facing the Cavaliers this year, the East Region’s No. 1 seed doesn’t hold much mystery for Tom Izzo. The Michigan State boss coached at camps run by Cavs’ head coach Tony Bennett’s father, Dick, who was a coach at Wisconsin, against Izzo in the early 2000s. Further to this, Tony was an assistant to his father on those Badger teams.

“This is as home as it gets for me, as far as knowing who I’m playing,” Izzo said, “knowing the style they play.”


No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 7 Connecticut Huskies (+1.5, 147)

The Cyclones connected on 12 of 26 3-point attempts versus North Carolina, numbers that are above their season averages of 8.4 made and 23.5 attempts. Connecticut doesn’t do a great job running teams off the 3-point line, allowing opponents over 18 attempts per game - a number that was bested by Villanova, who hoisted 31 from behind the arc in the round-of-32.

Connecticut forced Villanova into committing 16 turnovers Sunday - almost five above its season average - turning them into 20 points. Iowa State is one of the nation’s best teams at protecting the ball, turning it over 10.6 times per game. However, the Cyclones did commit 14 turnovers versus UNC.


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NCAAB

Friday, March 28

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NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes:Michigan has secret weapon
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No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (-2.5, 134)

Senior Jordan Morgan came up big, playing 35 minutes and earning a double-double (15 points, 10 rebounds) in the win over a very good rebounding Texas team. The 6-foot-8 forward averages just six points and five boards per game on the year, but has been solid in the NCAA with 25 points and 20 rebounds in the past two games. Morgan has a tough matchup in Jarnell Stokes, who had 18 rebounds in Tennessee's win over Mercer. But the Wolverines should feel confident that they have the secret to beating a tough interior team after handling the Longhorns.

Tennessee looks to continue its reputation as an under-seeded team. The Volunteers were ranked 11th in Ken Pomeroy's ratings system before being handed a No. 11 play-in seed. That hasn't deterred them from making a tournament run to the point where Pomeroy's rankings have the Vols as the sixth-ranked team in the country after the opening weekend, with Michigan sitting tenth. According to Pomeroy and his ratings system, this game may just be in the Vols’ favor.


No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (-4, 138.5)

The Cardinals are a poor 15-31 SU against their in-state rivals and 5-9 in the Rick Pitino Era in Louisville. Luckily for the Cardinals they are red hot, winning 14 of their last 15 games (10-5 ATS) down the stretch and hold the edge in experience over a young UK squad with seniors Russ Smith and Luke Hancock anchoring the team. However, Louisville wasn't tested often this year, boasting the second weakest strength of schedule among the Sweet 16 teams (75th in the country).

Kentucky's key to victory will be the rebounding battle. The Wildcats rode a plus-7 rebounding margin in their victory against the Cardinals during the regular season. If the babyface Wildcats want to sweep the season series, that type of effort will be needed on the glass once again.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, March 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 7:15 PM ET Tennessee +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Michigan - Over 136 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Connecticut - 7:27 PM ET Iowa St. -1 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Iowa St. - Under 148.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Dayton looks to upset Florida

March 28, 2014


Dayton (26-10) vs. Florida (35-2)

NCAA Tournament: South Regional Final - Elite Eight
Venue: FedEx Forum
Location: Memphis, TN
Tip-off:Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida -10.5, Total 132

No. 11 seed Dayton will look to continue its Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament with its toughest test yet on Saturday when it faces No. 1 overall seed Florida for a chance to reach the Final Four.

Dayton reached the Elite Eight with wins against No. 6 seed Ohio State, third-seeded Syracuse and No. 10 seed Stanford, making the team 7-1 ATS in its past eight games. The Flyers are 20-12 ATS overall this season, including 7-2 (SU and ATS) on neutral courts.

They are also an impressive 11-3 ATS against non-conference foes and 8-3 (SU and ATS) as underdogs this season. The Flyers are 8-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of more than 80% this season. Dayton has played ultra stingy defense so far this tournament, giving up 61.3 PPG, but faces one of the nation’s best defensive teams in Florida.

The Gators give up only 57.8 PPG (3rd in Div. I) and are allowing only 56.0 PPG so far in the tournament. Florida has now covered in two straight and seven of its past nine contests to improve to 17-14-2 ATS overall on the season. The Gators are 8-0 SU (4-3-1 ATS) at neutral sites, and 6-4-2 ATS against non-conference opponents.

Their road to the Elite Eight began with an ATS loss against Albany, but they have followed that up with double-digit win-and-covers against Pittsburgh and UCLA. Since 1997, the Gators are 155-113 ATS (58%) against teams that shoot more than 45% from the field.

Dayton’s defensive performance thus far contrasts its inconsistent play during the season, giving up 67.1 PPG on 43.7% FG. However, the Flyers do have potential on the offensive end with 73.4 PPG (98th in Div. I) on 46.6% shooting (60th in Div. I).

No Flyers player averages more than 13 PPG, led by junior SG Jordan Sibert (12.5 PPG), who is knocking down an impressive 43% of his threes this season. After going 4-of-13 from deep in the first two contests, he found his stroke against Stanford, hitting 7-of-12 FG and 4-of-9 threes for 18 points.

Six-foot-seven senior SF Devin Oliver (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.4 APG) is the team’s top rebounder and passer, helping Sibert threaten from the perimeter with 1.1 threes per game.

Sophomore PF Dyshawn Pierre (11.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is also a solid shooter (40% threes) and rounds out the team’s double-digit scorers. He struggled against Stanford with only six points and three turnovers.

SG Vee Sanford (9.7 PPG) and SG Khari Price (6.4 PPG) join Sibert in the backcourt for this team that regularly plays 11 men.

The Gators are arguably the best defensive team in the nation, holding opponents to 39.9% shooting while outrebounding them by +4.9 RPG. Offensively, they tally 71.0 PPG (181st in Div. I) on 46.3% shooting (74th in Div. I).

Their star is SEC Player of the Year PG Scottie Wilbekin (13.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.6 SPG), who wasn’t on the court during Florida’s only two losses: He was suspended for the defeat against Wisconsin and missed the final three minutes of a one-point loss to Wisconsin.

He is one of many tenacious defenders on Billy Donovan’s team, joined by C Patric Young (10.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG), PF Dorian Finney-Smith (9.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and SF Will Yeguete (5.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG), who all have shut-down defensive capabilities.

SF Casey Prather (14.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is the team’s top scorer while SG Michael Frazier II (12.7 PPG) is an incredible shooter, making 45% of his threes this season and 3.1 threes per game. Frazier led Florida past UCLA with 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting, including 5-of-8 from deep.

PG Kasey Hill (5.6 PPG, 3.2 APG) also plays important minutes in the backcourt, helping to occasionally spell Wilbekin from ball-handling duties. He showed his value against the Bruins, chipping in a career-high 10 assists and six rebounds.

[StarDust Bum]

Badgers, Wildcats collide

March 28, 2014


Wisconsin (29-7) vs. Arizona (33-4)

NCAA Tournament: West Regional Final - Elite Eight
Venue: Honda Center
Location: Anaheim, CA
Tip-off:Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -3.5, Total: 130

A Final Four berth is on the line Saturday night, as No. 2 seed Wisconsin takes on top-seeded Arizona in the NCAA Tournament Regional Final in Anaheim.

The Badgers have been clicking as of late, winning 12 of their past 14 games (8-6 ATS), They had to rally against Oregon in the third-round game last weekend, but were in complete control from the very beginning of the Sweet 16 matchup against Baylor. Wisconsin (18-16-2 ATS overall, 6-1-1 ATS on neutral courts) was able to overcome the tremendous length of the Bears, and built an early lead that was never in doubt.

The Wildcats are also hot, going 10-2 SU (7-5 ATS) in their past 12 contests. While Arizona (21-15 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS on neutral courts) will not have the same height as Baylor, the club's defense is as good as there is in the country. The Wildcats were in trouble on Thursday night against San Diego State, trailing most of the game before rallying for the victory. SG Nick Johnson missed his first 10 FG attempts of the game, but made some big hoops late to finish with 15 points (10-of-10 FT).

Both clubs have favorable betting trends in this matchup, as Arizona is 20-8 ATS (71%) in non-conference games in the past two seasons, while Wisconsin is 99-64 ATS (61%) after a non-conference game under Bo Ryan. These teams have met three times since 2000, all on a neutral court with Wisconsin going 2-1 SU and Arizona going 2-1 ATS. In the last meeting on Nov. 23, 2009, both teams shot 36% FG in a 65-61 Badgers win.

Wisconsin has a stronger offense than in seasons' past, pouring in 73.8 PPG (88th in nation) on 46.1% FG (78th in Div. I) and 37.6% threes (53rd in nation). Despite these solid numbers, the Badgers still have the fewest turnovers among all Division I teams with 8.1 TOPG, and commit the second-fewest personal fouls (15.0 per game). Defensively, they hold teams to 63.8 PPG (39th in nation) on 42.8% FG and 33.8% threes. The biggest weakness for Wisconsin is its ability to rebound the ball, holding a slim +1.7 RPG advantage this season (131st in Div. I).

In the game against Baylor, the Badgers got a huge performance from C Frank Kaminsky (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG). The 7-footer finished the game with 19 points while shooting 8-of-11 from the field. The Bears were a tough matchup for Kaminsky because they had the size and athleticism to match up with Kaminsky, but he still did a great job of attacking the rim and finishing. While Arizona is a terrific defensive team, Kaminsky will be the biggest player on the court.

SG Ben Brust (13.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG) was the other starter to reach double-figures in the Sweet 16 win against Baylor, finishing with 14 points and six rebounds. Brust is a great three-point shooter (39.3%), but will have to do it against elite defensive pressure. SG Josh Gasser (9.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG) was unable to score against Baylor, but he still had a solid game finishing with eight rebounds.

Forward Sam Dekker (12.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is the guy that must have a big game for the Badgers. At 6-foot-8, he has the size to create serious mismatches against the Wildcats defenders. If he is able to attack the basket, he will draw in the defenders, which will open up some great shooting opportunities for his teammates. PG Traevon Jackson (10.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.8 RPG) has been solid all season for the Badgers, and can get things rolling on the offensive end.

The Wildcats come into this game ranked fifth in the country in defense (58.3 PPG), holding opponents to a mere 38.0% FG (4th in Div. I) and 31.9% threes. They do not have a ton of terrific offensive players, so a lot of their points come because of their defense. The club averages only 73.1 PPG (101st in nation), but shoots solid percentages of 47.1% FG (37th in Div. I) and 36.2% threes (86th in nation). This is also a superb rebounding team with a +7.2 RPG margin (9th in Div. I).

SG Nick Johnson (16.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is the leader of this team who has put up strong numbers in the NCAA Tournament (17.5 PPG, 60% threes, 3.5 RPG) despite his cold shooting on Thursday. He is a big-time athlete that does a great job of getting to the rim. If the Wildcats are able to get into the transition game, Johnson becomes very difficult to slow down.

SF Aaron Gordon (12.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG) played a huge role in Thursday's comeback, as his alley-oop dunk help sparked the momentum back into the Wildcats favor. So far in the NCAA Tournament, he is scoring 17.0 PPG (71% FG) with 7.0 RPG.

Two other key frontcourt players include 7-foot C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who are most needed for rebounding and interior defense. Wisconsin will play the type of defense that is necessary to slow down Arizona, as it rarely allows easy baskets.

The key will be if the Badgers can limit its turnovers. They do a great job of hanging on to the ball, which will limit the Wildcats from getting into transition. However, if Arizona’s defense can force some turnovers, it could be a difficult game for Wisconsin.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo:Saturday's six-pack

-- UConn 81, Iowa State 76-- Deandre Daniels had 27 in what was a home game for the Nutmeg State's team.

-- Michigan 73, Tennessee 71-- Wolverines made 11-20 from arc, held on for dear life after leading by 11 at the half.

-- Michigan State 61, Virginia 59-- Third time in 27 years a #1 seed was an underdog in this round; none of them won.

-- Kentucky 74, Louisville 69-- Cardinals were up 18-5 at the second TV timeout, but Calipari is now 6-1 vs Pitino in this rivalry game.

-- South Florida offered its coaching job to Dave Rice; they would double his salary, to $1.2M per. Curious to see how hard UNLV works to keep its coach; he would like more charter flights, a dedicated academic advisor.

-- Mike Trout grabs six years, $144M from the Angels. Good day for him.

*****

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Some assorted Saturday stuff......

13) Los Angeles Dodgers have already sold 3,000,000+ tickets for this season, and may sell 35,000 season tickets. Now all they have to do is win; they’re 2-0 after the Australia trip, so Don Mattingly’s team is off to a good start. Expectations couldn’t be any higher though.

12) So UCLA comes out in the Sweet 16 game with Florida wearing dark blue sleeved uniforms, as John Wooden turns over in his grave. Raises an interesting question; had Steve Alford wound up as coach at his alma mater Indiana, would he have scrapped the traditional candystripe warmup pants? We’ll probably never know.

11) 76ers tied an NBA record by losing their 26th game in a row; their over/under in Las Vegas before the season was 16 wins- they’re 15-57 now and no cinch to win another game. Funny thing is, they don’t have the worst record in the league; Milwaukee does. Quality of play on a lot of NBA teams is beyond awful.

10) VCU coach Shaka Smart spurned Marquette; where do they go from here? Former UCLA coach Ben Howland would seem to be the safest bet.

9) Speaking of VCU, Smart lost assistant Mike Rhoads to Rice, where he will try to invigorate a perennially losing program. Rhoads coached D-II Randolph-Macon for ten years, so he’s got experience as a head coach. You know the Owls will run/press more, which is always a good thing, at least for fans to watch. Rice needs more fans, and much better players.

8) Marshall reached out to alum Mike D’Antoni about becoming its next basketball coach, seeing as Kobe Bryant said he doesn’t want D’Antoni back with the Lakers next year. Supposedly, D’Antoni has interest in the job, which would be a very interesting study.

7) Of the first 61 plays that were reviewed by baseball’s new replay system, 11 were overturned.

6) A movie theater in Brooklyn tossed a patron out for bringing strawberries from the outside while he watched the movie. Problem is, the guy is diabetic and didn’t want to eat junk food that the theater sells. They actually called the cops and had the guy thrown out and wouldn’t refund his $12. Only in New York.

5) UCLA’s Kyle Anderson declared for the NBA Draft; I read about it on Twitter about ten minutes after the Bruins lost to Florida, not that the kid had one foot out the door or anything.

4) Ron Jaworski ranked LSU’s Zach Mettenberger as his #2 QB in the NFL Draft, ahead of Teddy Bridgewater, Johhny Manziel. Mettenberger tore his ACL against Arkansas in November and can’t work out yet, so it’s a controversial opinion. He’s had NFL-type coaching; Cam Cameron was his coordinator last year. Interesting to see which teams drafts him.

3) Free agent RB Maurice Jones-Drew signed with Oakland; when he was a kid, MJD used to mow John Madden’s lawn, so maybe the Raiders had a little bit of an advantage.

2) Its amazing the following Steve Fisher has cultivated for his San Diego State Aztecs, what a strong program he has built. 15 years ago, no one went to games; Fisher stumped the dorms trying to get kids interesting in going to games. They had a lot more fans than Arizona did in Anaheim Thursday night, a testament to the brilliant job Fisher has done there.

1) People ask now and then about the value of sports, why are they important? To me, this is a big part of it. Thursday night, Thurman Thomas posted a picture on Twitter, of him and his wife in Jim Kelly’s hospital room with Mrs Kelly, the four of them smiling for the camera, while they probably were crying inside.

Jim Kelly is very, very ill, battling cancer; the bond that these teammates have (Kelly retired in ’96, Thomas left the Bills in ’99) has lasted the 17 years since Kelly stopped playing. Jim Kelly needs all the help/prayers he can get these days. Friends can help.

Being on a team, especially a winning team, can somehow bond people together for the rest of their lives. Common experience often does that; can’t really tell you why or how, it just does and when you see pictures like the one last night, of one friend trying to help another in their hour of greatest need, you realize that’s a big part of why sports matter.