The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Beware these three teams ending NCAA tournament droughts

The 68 teams participating in this year's March Madness have enough pressure to deal with. But for a handful of select schools, that tension is magnified by the fact that they just don't get to the tournament all that often.

Whether a team is new to the Big Dance or hasn't been there for a while, it can be hard to shake the "happy-to-be-here" sensation, particularly since most of them face difficult first-round matchups. And judging by this year's crop of newcomers, that trend should continue in 2014.

Here are three teams making a rare March Madness appearance:

Cal Poly Mustangs (13-19, 6-10 Big West)

The Mustangs are making their first-ever appearance in the NCAA tournament, earning a spot in a first-round play-in game against the Texas Southern Tigers in a battle of 16th-seeded teams. Despite stumbling to sixth place in the Big West, Cal Poly stunned the college basketball world by rolling past UC Santa Barbara, shading top-seeded UC Irvine and sneaking past Cal State Northridge to win the conference championship. The Mustangs are installed as 3-point favorites against Texas Southern, with the winner taking on unbeaten Wichita State in Round 2 of the Midwest Regional.

North Carolina Central Eagles (28-5, 15-1 Mid-East Atlantic)

The Eagles are the other tournament team making its debut appearance, drawing a 14-seed in the East Regional and an opening encounter with the Iowa State Cyclones Friday night. North Carolina Central steamrolled to a 15-1 conference record, then blasted Howard 92-46, eased past Norfolk State 68-45 and defeated Morgan State 71-62 for its first-ever MEAC title. The Eagles are listed as 9-point underdogs against the Cyclones - the best odds of any 14th-seeded team in the tournament - and would face either North Carolina or Providence in the next round.

Mercer Bears (26-8, 14-4 Atlantic Sun)

No fact can illustrate Mercer's tournament drought better than this: Its only previous March Madness team was led by future NBA head coach and analyst Sam Mitchell. Mercer, seeded 14th in the Midwest Region, will make its first tournament appearance since 1985 when it squares off against the powerhouse Duke Blue Devils Friday afternoon. The Bears, who fell to the John Salley-led Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first round 29 years ago, qualified for this year's event by defeating Florida Gulf Coast 68-60 in the Atlantic Sun final. Mercer is a 13-point dog against Duke.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 19

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CAL POLY-SLO (13 - 19) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (19 - 15) - 3/19/2014, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAL POLY-SLO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games this season.
CAL POLY-SLO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAL POLY-SLO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CAL POLY-SLO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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IOWA (20 - 12) vs. TENNESSEE (21 - 12) - 3/19/2014, 9:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 101-69 ATS (+25.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
IOWA is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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ILLINOIS (19 - 14) at BOSTON U (24 - 10) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON U is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
BOSTON U is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
BOSTON U is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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IONA (22 - 10) at LOUISIANA TECH (27 - 7) - 3/19/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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VERMONT (22 - 10) at GEORGIA (19 - 13) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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TOLEDO (27 - 6) at SOUTHERN MISS (27 - 6) - 3/19/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
SOUTHERN MISS is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all home games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
SOUTHERN MISS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TOLEDO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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UC-IRVINE (23 - 11) at SMU (23 - 9) - 3/19/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all home games this season.
SMU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
SMU is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
SMU is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
SMU is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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LSU (19 - 13) at SAN FRANCISCO (21 - 11) - 3/19/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 72-104 ATS (-42.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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UTAH VALLEY ST (20 - 11) at CALIFORNIA (19 - 13) - 3/19/2014, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) on Wednesday games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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S DAKOTA ST (19 - 12) at OLD DOMINION (16 - 17) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA ST is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
S DAKOTA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season.
S DAKOTA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 110-153 ATS (-58.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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HAMPTON (18 - 12) at PENN ST (15 - 17) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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PRINCETON (20 - 8) at TULANE (17 - 16) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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MOREHEAD ST (20 - 13) at ILLINOIS ST (16 - 15) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MOREHEAD ST is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MOREHEAD ST is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
ILLINOIS ST is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus MOREHEAD ST over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS ST is 1-0 straight up against MOREHEAD ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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WYOMING (18 - 14) at TEXAS A&M (17 - 15) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
WYOMING is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 79-53 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
WYOMING is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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FRESNO ST (17 - 16) at UTEP (23 - 10) - 3/19/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
UTEP is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
UTEP is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
UTEP is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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RADFORD (21 - 12) at OREGON ST (16 - 15) - 3/19/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RADFORD is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
RADFORD is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OREGON ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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QUINNIPIAC (20 - 11) at YALE (15 - 13) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
QUINNIPIAC is 1-0 straight up against YALE over the last 3 seasons




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TOWSON ST (23 - 10) at USC UPSTATE (19 - 14) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOWSON ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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CLEVELAND ST (21 - 11) at OHIO U (23 - 11) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND ST is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
CLEVELAND ST is 50-90 ATS (-49.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
CLEVELAND ST is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CLEVELAND ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
OHIO U is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
OHIO U is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
OHIO U is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
OHIO U is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
OHIO U is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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AKRON (21 - 12) at IUPU-FT WAYNE (24 - 10) - 3/19/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 10-18 ATS (-9.8 Units) in all games this season.
AKRON is 10-18 ATS (-9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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MURRAY ST (18 - 11) at MISSOURI ST (20 - 12) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 73-100 ATS (-37.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MISSOURI ST is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI ST is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
MISSOURI ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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N DAKOTA (17 - 16) at NEBRASKA-OMAHA (16 - 14) - 3/19/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N DAKOTA is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
N DAKOTA is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 1-0 against the spread versus N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 1-0 straight up against N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons




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TEXAS A&M CC (17 - 15) at N COLORADO (18 - 13) - 3/19/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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PACIFIC (15 - 15) at GRAND CANYON (15 - 14) - 3/19/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PACIFIC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, March 19

Cal Poly Slo at Texas Southern, 6:40 ET
Cal Poly Slo: 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) as a favorite
Texas Southern: 5-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Iowa at Tennessee, 9:10 ET
Iowa: 20-36 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
Tennessee: 15-6 ATS off a loss against a conference rival


Thursday, March 20

Dayton at Ohio State, 12:15 ET
Dayton: 9-2 ATS in road non-conference games
Ohio State: 8-1 OVER in a NCAA tournament games

Western Michigan at Syracuse, 2:45 ET
W Michigan: 19-37 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
Syracuse: 14-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite

St Joseph's at Connecticut, 6:55 ET
St Joseph's: 15-7 UNDER as a favorite
Connecticut: 11-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Wisc Milwaukee at Villanova, 9:25 ET
Wisc Milwaukee: 7-1 ATS in all tournament games
Villanova: 15-5 OVER off a loss against a conference rival

Pittsburgh at Colorado, 1:40 ET
Pittsburgh: 10-2 OVER comign off an ATS win
Colorado: 18-9 ATS coming off an ATS loss

Manhattan at Louisville, 9:50 ET
Manhattan: 17-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Louisville: 14-3 OVER in all neutral court games

BYU at Oregon, 3:10 ET
BYU: 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Oregon: 6-0 ATS in a post-season tournament game

American at Wisconsin, 12:40 ET
American: 4-0 ATS in all lined games
Wisconsin: 12-23 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Arizona State at Texas, 9:40 ET
Arizona St: 2-8 ATS as an underdog
Texas: 31-16 UNDER in road games after playing a game as an underdog

Wofford at Michigan, 7:10 ET
Wofford: 11-3 ATS off an ATS win
Michigan: 8-2 OVER in road games after 3 consecutive conference games

Harvard at Cincinnati, 2:10 ET
Harvard: 14-7 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less

Delaware at Michigan State, 4:40 ET
Delaware: 7-0 OVER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Michigan St: 7-0 OVER after a combined score of 125 points or less

North Dakota State at Oklahoma, 7:25 ET
N Dakota St: 6-16 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins
Oklahoma: 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

New Mexico State at San Diego State, 9:55 ET
New Mexico St: 7-0 UNDER in all neutral court games
San Diego St: 7-0 ATS against WAC opponents

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 19

Wednesday's play-in games (Dayton)
Cal Poly was #7 seed in Big West after being picked #2 preseason; they were 2-9 in last 11 games before winning Big West tourney. Mustangs play slower style; this is their first NCAA. Last Big West team to win tourney game was Pacific in ’05- this is league’s first play-in game. Texas Southern is most experienced team in country; C Murray played for West Virginia LY. Coach Davis once led Indiana in national title game, so this is better than normal SWAC team, but they did lose 87-80 at Big West’s Fullerton back in December- they also lost by 9 at Texas Tech, 26 at Stanford, 15 at Miami.

Iowa lost six of last seven games to fall into this game; their coach’s son is having surgery during day Wednesday, not 100% sure McCaffery will be at game. Hawkeyes were 15-3 on Jan 19 but are now 4-8 vs top 50 teams; this is their first NCAA since 2006. Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since Pearl left; they’ve won five of last six games, losing by 7 in SEC tourney to Florida. Vols are just 2-6 vs teams in top 50, but they beat Virginia by 35 in December. Iowa subs a lot, wants to play fast but they’re inferior defensively to Tennessee. Vols have edge in experience. Winner of this game will be a problem for UMass.

Notes on Other Games- Wednesday
-- Illinois won five of last seven games; they're 11-2 outside conference play. Boston U won at Maryland in Devember, lost by 17 at UConn, 6 at St Joe's- they start three sophs, are playing for the future.
-- Iona won 14 of last 16 games; they lost MAAC title game by 3; they are 3-6 outside MAAC (#15 non-conf schedule). Louisiana Tech won 10 of its last 12 games; they're a very experienced team.
-- Vermont went 15-1 in America East, lost 91-90 at Duke, making 31 of 41 inside arc. Georgia won nine of last 12 games; they were only 6-6 in their non-conference games. Vermont starts four seniors.
-- Toledo beat FAU by 20, its only game vs C-USA team; they're 27-6 overall, better on offense than defense. Southern Miss won six of its last seven games, winning at UTEP, losing to La Tech in C-USA tourney.
-- SMU is best team not to make NCAAs; you never know how teams react to being snubbed (see St John's last nite). Mustangs lost last three games overall. Cal-Irvine won ten of its last twelve games.

-- San Francisco won six of last seven games, losing to BYU in OT in WCC tourney; Dons only have one senior in rotation, so they're trying to get better for next year. LSU lost seven of its last twelve games.
-- Cal is so erratic, no idea how they'll play; they're 5-9 in last 14 games, with last three decided by 4 or less points. Utah Valley was #1 seed in WAC, got beat in tourney- they lost by 15 at Oregon in only game with a Pac-12 teams this season.
-- Old Dominion is 16-17, 6-9 outside C-USA; they don't start a senior. South Dakota State won nine of last 11 games but got beat by Ft Wayne in Summit tourney. Jackrabbits start three seniors.
-- Penn State lost seven of last ten games; Lions are 9-4 outside league play, 4-0 vs teams outside top 200, with all four wins by 12+ points. Hampton lost by 29 at Virginia in its highest-profile game this year.
-- Princeton won its last five games, is 20-8, winning by 14 at Rice in its only game vs C-USA team. Tulane is 17-16 despite kids transferring in wake of their not getting in Big East. Green Wave is 8-7 out of league, and that was 6th-easiest non-league schedule in country.

-- Morehead State lost four of last five games after being 19-9- they turn ball over 22% of time, in bottom 20 in country. Illinois State had all new starters this year, went 9-9 in MVC- they beat Tennessee state by 6 in only game against an OVC team.
-- Wyoming lost five of last six games; they lost top scorer Nance with 8 games left, struggled after that. Texas A&M lost four of last five games, with last three losses by 5 or less points, or in OT.
-- UTEP lost C-USA tourney at home; they've won 18 of last 23 games. Fresno won nine of last 12 games, but Guerrero is just 4 of his last 33 behind arc. UTEP beat Colorado State by 8, only game vs MW team.
-- Radford is 21-12 this year after being 24-49 previous three years, so they're excited to be improved, winning seven of last 10 games. Oregon State starts three seniors, but lost seven of last ten games anyway.
-- Yale lost four of last five games after being tied atop Ivy; they don't start any seniors, are building to next year. Quinnipiac went 15-7 in its first MAAC season, but lost three of last four games, losing by 19 in a conference tournament loss. Bobcats are very good rebounding team.

-- Towson State is 23-10 after being 1-31 two years ago; they're 7-1 in last eight games, winning last four roiad games. SC-Upstate is 19-14, but 0-3 in OT games, losing twice in OT to conference champ Mercer.
-- Ohio U won four of last five games but lost by 6 to Akron in tourney; Bobcats start three seniors. Cleveland State won 10 of last 12 games but lost to Wright State by 5 in tourney- they don't start any seniors.
-- Fort Wayne lost Summit final to North Dakota State; Mastadons lost by 7 at Miami, beat Bowling Green by 5 in only games vs MAC foes. Akron won four of last five games, but blew 17-point halftime lead and lost in OT to Western Michigan in MAC semis.
-- Murray State is 18-11 despite having to play freshman PG, losing its last two games by 3 points each; Racers beat Evansville by hoop in only game vs MVC opponent. Missouri State is 4-5 in its last nine games.

-- North Dakota won six of last eight games but lost Big Sky final four nights ago in Utah; UND split its two games with Summit League clubs. Omaha lost five of its last six games, after being 15-9 at one point.
-- Northern Colorado lost five of last seven games- they start 3 seniors, but lost last two home games. Corpus Christi won seven of last eight games, but got upset in first round of Southland tourney.
-- Pacific lost five of last six games, went 6-13 in its first year in WCC; Tigers start four seniors, so this was disappointing year. Grand Canyon is coached by Dan Majerle; hey're 0-2 vs WCC teams this year, losing by 3-11 points.

Thursday's NCAA games
Ohio State won its last four first round games, covered last three, winning by 29-29-25 points, but those were as 1-2 seeds; they’ve made Sweet 16 last four years. #6 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in first round last two years, after being 2-10 three years before that (9-11 last five years). Last year was just second time this century no #6 seed got beat in first round. Dayton is in tourney for first time since ’09, second time in decade; Buckeyes won’t play them during regular season. OSU is more experienced, teams play roughly same tempo, Flyers sub more. Buckeyes are 9-4 in last 13 games. Dayton is 3-6 vs top 50 teams.

There are 351 D-I basketball teams; Wisconsin ranks #338 in time per possession, American #339. Teams have roughly same experience level, sub the same amount, both play slow, just Wisconsin does it in a way better league. American was 3-5 in last eight games before going 3-0 in Patriot tournament. Last year was first time in seven years Ryan lost his first round game; last time he was #2 seed, Badgers covered by half-point in first round, laying 12.5 to Corpus Christi in ’07. Patriot League teams lost six of last seven in tournament, but covered four of last six in this round. #2 seeds went 2-2 vs spread in first round in each of the last six years.

Over last 18 years, underdogs are 44-28 (61.1%) vs spread in these 5-12 first round games, with #12's 5-3 SU last two years. Cincinnati tied for AAC title but is just 5-4 in last nine games- three of those losses were Louisville/UConn (2). Ivy League teams split last four first round games after losing nine in row before that; Harvard upset New Mexico LY, but were getting 10.5 points- this spread is little light, no? Crimson lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 game. Harvard hasn't played in 12 days, has won eight games in row but against bad teams. Last three years, favorites of 5 or less points are 15-22 vs spread in first round games.

Colorado rode senior G Booker to make it here after star Dinwiddie was lost for year (knee) in January; Buffaloes lost by 12 to Baylor, won by 14 vs Georgia in two biggest non-league games. Third year in row in this event for Colorado, which was 14-2 with Dinwiddie, 9-9 since. Pitt won five of last seven games, losing by 3 to Virginia after beating Tar Heels in first ACC tourney. Patterson is 14-31 from arc in his last four games- Panthers struggle when he doesn't shoot well. Underdogs covered 16 of last 20 #8-9 games over last five years. Pitt had won five first round tilts in row before they lost to Wichita State 73-55 in first round LY.

Not only is Syracuse playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 2-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point. #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round last three years. Western Michigan split pair with Eastern Michigan, which is Syracuse-clone coached by former assistant coach. Broncos won 11 of last 12 games with only loss in OT; they are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-6 points- their best win is over New Mexico State. MAC teams covered four of last five first round games. Boeheim is 7-3 vs spread in first round games last ten years.

BYU lost 100-96 (+9) in OT at Oregon Dec 21; Haws/Collinsworth got 41+ minutes in game, but Collinsworth blew out knee in WCC tourney, is out here, which made some say BYU shouldn't be here. Cougars won 15 of last 19 games after starting season 8-7. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks are 3-0 vs WCC teams this year, with other two wins by 23-18 points- they made Sweet 16 LY, making tourney for first time under Altman. Over last five years,.underdogs are 15-5 vs spread in #7-10 games, with 12 SU upsets. Hard to imagine Collinsworth's injury not crippling BYU's chances.

Over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round-- Albany won in Dayton Tuesday night, has to play here 45 hours later, against #1 team in country- good luck. Great Danes are in tourney for 4th time; they covered two of three in this round, losing by 12 (+20.5) to Duke in LY's event. Gators won first round game last three years by 28-26-32 points; they beat Kentucky in SEC final Sunday, so quick turnaround for them, too. chances are they've been prepping for second round game, when they'll be playing Colorado-Pitt winner. Albany is well-coached; they jumped out to 21-2 lead, but had trouble with quickness/shooting of Mt St Mary's, which doesn't bode well for this opponent.

Michigan State is finally healthy, looked sharp in Big Dozen tourney, where they beat Michigan in finals, avenging pair of earlier losses to the Wolverines. Spartans are 12-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 100, with 10 of 12 wins by 14+ points. Over last eight years, #4 seeds are 20-12 vs spread in this round. Izzo won six of last seven first round games, winning last two years by 22-11 points. Delaware lost by 4 to Villanova, 5 to Notre Dame, 12 to Ohio State; they've won 19 of last 21 games, don't sub much, protect ball very well- they scored 84.5 ppg in their last four games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 19

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
Old Dominion is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 6 games

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
CLEVELAND STATE vs. OHIO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland State's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games at home
Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
ILLINOIS vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois's last 9 games on the road
No trends available

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
TOWSON vs. USC UPSTATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Towson's last 8 games on the road
Towson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
AKRON vs. IUPU FORT WAYNE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 6 games on the road
Akron is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
HAMPTON vs. PENN STATE
No trends available
Penn State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games at home

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MARCH 19, 7:00 PM
QUINNIPIAC vs. YALE
Quinnipiac is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Yale is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Yale is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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MARCH 19, 7:30 PM
IONA vs. LOUISIANA TECH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iona's last 6 games on the road
Iona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 6 games

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MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. TULANE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Princeton's last 7 games on the road
Princeton is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Tulane is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulane's last 11 games at home

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MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
WYOMING vs. TEXAS A&M
Wyoming is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Wyoming's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas A&M's last 5 games at home
Texas A&M is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

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MARCH 19, 8:00 PM
VERMONT vs. GEORGIA
No trends available
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Georgia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

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MARCH 19, 8:05 PM
MURRAY STATE vs. MISSOURI STATE
Murray State is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Murray State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri State's last 5 games at home
Missouri State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home

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MARCH 19, 8:05 PM
MOREHEAD STATE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Morehead State's last 5 games on the road
Morehead State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois State's last 11 games at home

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MARCH 19, 8:07 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. NEBRASKA OMAHA
North Dakota is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
North Dakota is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
No trends available

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MARCH 19, 8:30 PM
TOLEDO vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Toledo is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Southern Miss is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
TEXAS A&M C.C. vs. NORTHERN COLORADO
No trends available
Northern Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Northern Colorado is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games

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MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Fresno State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Texas El Paso
Fresno State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas El Paso
Texas El Paso is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Texas El Paso is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

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MARCH 19, 9:00 PM
UC IRVINE vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
UC Irvine is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Methodist's last 7 games
Southern Methodist is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

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MARCH 19, 9:10 PM
IOWA vs. TENNESSEE
No trends available
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games

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MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
LSU vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LSU is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
LSU is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
RADFORD vs. OREGON STATE
No trends available
Oregon State is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Oregon State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

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MARCH 19, 10:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. GRAND CANYON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pacific's last 8 games on the road
Pacific is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Grand Canyon is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Grand Canyon is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

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MARCH 19, 10:30 PM
UTAH VALLEY vs. CALIFORNIA
Utah Valley is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Utah Valley is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
California is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California's last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 19

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NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Texas Southern vs. Cal Poly SLO
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Texas Southern Tigers vs. Cal Poly SLO Mustangs (-4, 130)

Texas Southern will attempt to stretch its winning streak to 10 games when the Tigers face surprising Cal Poly in a Midwest Region first-round game at the NCAA tournament Wednesday at Dayton. Texas Southern won the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament to gain an NCAA bid for the fifth time and first since 2003; fellow 16th seed Cal Poly makes its first appearance in the Big Dance after winning the Big West. The winner takes on top seed Wichita State on Friday in St. Louis.

The Tigers, who own a victory at Temple earlier this season, have not lost since Feb. 17 and won three games in their conference tournament by an average of 14 points. The Tigers average 76.2 points, led by SWAC player of the year Aaric Murray, while the Mustangs lean on their defense. Cal Poly had lost nine of its previous 11 games before winning three straight to earn its spot from the seventh seed.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

LINE HISTORY: The line opened Cal Poly -3, was bet down to -2.5 before being bet up to -4. The total has held steady at 130.

INJURY WATCH: N/A.

WHY BET CAL POLY (13-19): Chris Eversley, a 6-7 senior forward, was the Big West tournament MVP for the Mustangs after scoring 32 points combined in the last two games and leads the team in scoring (13.6) and rebounding (7.1). Swingman Dave Nwaba has contributed 11.9 points per contest and shoots 52.8 percent from the field while six-foot guard Kyle Odister has made a team-high 60 3-pointers. Cal Poly was last in the league in scoring (63.2), but first in points allowed (63.4) and has allowed an average of 56.2 over its five.

WHY BET TEXAS SOUTHERN (19-14): Murray, a 6-10 center who played two seasons at LaSalle and one at West Virginia before transferring, scored a season-high 48 points at Temple and poured in 27 in the SWAC title game. Murray averages 21.2 points and 7.7 rebounds while Marshall transfer D’Aris Scarver chips in with 13.3 per contest for the Tigers, who led the SWAC in scoring and field goal percentage (46.2). Jose Rodriguez averages 11.3 points and Madarious Gibbs (9.2) reached double figures in five of his last six games.

TRENDS:

* Texas Southern is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
* Cal Poly is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Cal Poly is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cal Poly's last four non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of the wagers are on Cal Pol -4.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 19

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NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Tennessee vs. Iowa
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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 144)

Two teams that ended the regular season going in different directions meet when Iowa faces Tennessee on Wednesday in Dayton to start play in the NCAA tournament’s Midwest Regional. Tennessee makes its 20th appearance after winning six of its last eight and the Volunteers gave No. 1 Florida trouble in the SEC semifinals while Iowa dropped six of its last seven before getting its first bid since 2006. The winner of the game between two No. 11 seeds plays Massachusetts on Friday in Raleigh, N.C.

Tennessee has leaned on its defense of late, allowing 47.4 points per game in the last five, and will play a Hawkeyes team that has averaged 82 for the season – 10th in the nation. Both teams can go deep on the bench while Iowa’s Roy Devyn Marble and Jordan McRae of Tennessee were both first-team picks in their respective conferences. The key might be on the boards where both teams stand in the top 20 in the nation.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, TruTV

LINE HISTORY: The Volunteers opened at -2 and have been bet all the way to 2.5-point dogs. The total opened at 142.5 and has been bet up to 144.

INJURY WATCH: Tennessee: Guard Robert Hubbs - out or season (shoulder)

WHY BET TENNESSEE (21-12, 18-13 ATS): The Volunteers are back in the NCAAs for the first time since 2011 after taking care of business down the stretch and flaunting a 35-point victory over ACC champion Virginia in December. McRae averages 18.6 points and has made 75 from 3-point range while Jarnell Stokes has scored in double figures the last 15 games to boast averages of 14.7 points and a team-best 10.3 rebounds overall. Jeronne Maymon averages 10.1 points for the Volunteers and shoots 52.9 percent from the field.

WHY BET IOWA (20-12, 15-15 ATS): Marble has not slumped along with the Hawkeyes, scoring at least 20 points in six of his last seven games to raise his season average to 17.3, and he has drained 101 from 3-point range in the last two seasons. Aaron White gives Iowa an inside force, averaging 13 points, 6.7 rebounds and leading the Big Ten in field goal percentage (59.2). The Hawkeyes will have to get production from others and can depend on good distribution from point guard Mike Gesell, who led the league in assist-turnover ratio at 124-to-42.

TRENDS:

* Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Tennessee's last five games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Iowa's last 11 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The wagers are almost an even split with Iowa -2.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Vermont at Georgia
The NIT continues tonight with Georgia (19-13 SU) hosting a Vermont team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Georgia is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-5). Here are all of today's games and the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19

Game 621-622: Texas Southern vs. Cal Poly (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 48.423; Cal Poly 53.759
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 3; 130
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (-3); Over

Game 623-624: Tennessee vs. Iowa (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 71.682; Iowa 71.401
Dunkel Line: Even; 149
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+2 1/2); Over

Game 625-626: Illinois at Boston U (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 67.807; Boston U 53.550
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-2)

Game 627-628: Iona at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 58.497; Louisiana Tech 68.676
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 10
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 8
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-8)

Game 629-630: Vermont at Georgia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 58.957; Georgia 66.315
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-5)

Game 631-632: Toledo at Southern Mississippi (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 53.906; Southern Mississippi 63.352
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7)

Game 633-634: UC-Irvine at SMU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 57.990; SMU 69.844
Dunkel Line: SMU by 12
Vegas Line: SMU by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-8 1/2)

Game 635-636: LSU at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 61.510; San Francisco 66.160
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2)

Game 637-638: Utah Valley State at California (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah Valley State 50.664; California 61.538
Dunkel Line: California by 11
Vegas Line: California by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah Valley State (+13 1/2)

Game 645-646: South Dakota State at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 57.837; Old Dominion 60.960
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 3
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 1
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-1)

Game 647-648: Hampton at Penn State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 53.304; Penn State 63.274
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 10
Vegas Line: Penn State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Hampton (+13)

Game 649-650: Princeton at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.264; Tulane 47.585
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 651-652: Morehead State at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 50.403; Illinois State 54.321
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 4
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+6 1/2)

Game 653-654: Wyoming at Texas A&M (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 54.941; Texas A&M 62.104
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 7
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-4)

Game 655-656: Fresno State at UTEP (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 59.701; UTEP 59.710
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UTEP by 5
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+5)

Game 657-658: Radford at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Radford 46.266; Oregon State 58.550
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Radford (+15 1/2)

Game 665-666: Quinnipiac at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 49.028; Yale 48.938
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Yale by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (+3 1/2)

Game 667-668: Towson at USC Upstate (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 54.903; USC Upstate 53.850
Dunkel Line: Towson by 1
Vegas Line: USC Upstate by 3
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+3)

Game 669-670: Cleveland State at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 58.406; Ohio 54.655
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 4
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State

Game 671-672: Akron at IPFW (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 53.730; IPFW 58.321
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: IPFW by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-2 1/2)

Game 673-674: Murray State at Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 52.463; Missouri State 59.891
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-4 1/2)

Game 675-676: North Dakota at NE-Omaha (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 48.469; NE-Omaha 50.828
Dunkel Line: NE-Omaha by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: NE-Omaha by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+6 1/2)

Game 677-678: TX-Corpus Christi at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Corpus Christi 49.256; Northern Colorado 48.032
Dunkel Line: TX-Corpus Christi by 1
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 7
Dunkel Pick: TX-Corpus Christi (+7)

Game 679-680: Pacific at Grand Canyon (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 50.821; Grand Canyon 51.537
Dunkel Line: Grand Canyon by 1
Vegas Line: Pacific by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Grand Canyon (+3 1/2)

THURSDAY, MARCH 20

Game 709-710: Dayton vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.934; Ohio State 67.658
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+6); Over

Game 711-712: Western Michigan vs. Syracuse (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.991; Syracuse 70.805
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15; 121
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-12 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: St. Joseph's vs. Connecticut (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 65.307; Connecticut 66.702
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+4 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: WI-Milwaukee vs. Villanova (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 50.016; Villanova 73.492
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 23 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Villanova by 16; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-16); Over

Game 719-720: Pittsburgh vs. Colorado (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.871; Colorado 61.781
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Manhattan vs. Louisville (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 63.468; Louisville 76.569
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 139
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 143
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+16); Under

Game 725-726: BYU vs. Oregon (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.606; Oregon 71.611
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 162
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over

Game 727-728: American vs. Wisconsin (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: American 52.300; Wisconsin 72.799
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13); Over

Game 729-730: Arizona State vs. Texas (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 67.413; Texas 64.675
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 147
Vegas Line: Texas by 2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2); Over

Game 731-732: Wofford vs. Michigan (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.631; Michigan 68.193
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 126
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+16); Under

Game 733-734: Harvard vs. Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.925; Cincinnati 66.883
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+3); Under

Game 735-736: Delaware vs. Michigan State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.733; Michigan State 68.342
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+14); Under

Game 737-738: North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 66.353; Oklahoma 67.846
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4; 150
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4); Over

Game 739-740: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.174; San Diego State 65.509
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+7 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, MARCH 21

Game 823-824: Mercer vs. Duke (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 55.402; Duke 70.933
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Duke by 12 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-12 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 53.168; Virginia 71.410
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 18; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 21; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (+21); Under

Game 827-828: George Washington vs. Memphis (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 62.426; Memphis 67.993
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 5 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 829-830: Stanford vs. New Mexico (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 68.385; New Mexico 68.202
Dunkel Line: Even; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4); Under

Game 831-832: Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.716; Kansas 70.742
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 13; 152
Vegas Line: Kansas by 15; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15); Over

Game 835-836: Kansas State vs. Kentucky (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 63.668; Kentucky 71.295
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-5); Under

Game 837-838: Nebraska vs. Baylor (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 66.260; Baylor 71.837
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3); Over

Game 839-840: UL-Lafayette vs. Creighton (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.892; Creighton 72.541
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 17; 158
Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-13 1/2); Over

Game 841-842: Providence vs. North Carolina (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.636; North Carolina 70.487
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 139
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4; 143
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4); Under

Game 843-844: North Carolina Central vs. Iowa State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 62.369; Iowa State 67.345
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9; 144
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina Central (+9); Under

Game 845-846: Stephen F. Austin vs. VCU (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 62.457; VCU 66.241
Dunkel Line: VCU by 4; 129
Vegas Line: VCU by 6 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (+6 1/2);

Game 847-848: Tulsa vs. UCLA (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.629; UCLA 73.110
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9); Over

Game 849-850: Weber State vs. Arizona (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.314; Arizona 70.720
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Arizona by 20; 127
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+20); Under

Game 851-852: Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.094; Gonzaga 69.274
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 1; 143
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+2 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, March 19

Cal Poly Slo at Texas Southern, 6:40 ET
Cal Poly Slo: 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) as a favorite
Texas Southern: 5-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Iowa at Tennessee, 9:10 ET
Iowa: 20-36 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
Tennessee: 15-6 ATS off a loss against a conference rival


Thursday, March 20

Dayton at Ohio State, 12:15 ET
Dayton: 9-2 ATS in road non-conference games
Ohio State: 8-1 OVER in a NCAA tournament games

Western Michigan at Syracuse, 2:45 ET
W Michigan: 19-37 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
Syracuse: 14-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite

St Joseph's at Connecticut, 6:55 ET
St Joseph's: 15-7 UNDER as a favorite
Connecticut: 11-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Wisc Milwaukee at Villanova, 9:25 ET
Wisc Milwaukee: 7-1 ATS in all tournament games
Villanova: 15-5 OVER off a loss against a conference rival

Pittsburgh at Colorado, 1:40 ET
Pittsburgh: 10-2 OVER comign off an ATS win
Colorado: 18-9 ATS coming off an ATS loss

Manhattan at Louisville, 9:50 ET
Manhattan: 17-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Louisville: 14-3 OVER in all neutral court games

BYU at Oregon, 3:10 ET
BYU: 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Oregon: 6-0 ATS in a post-season tournament game

American at Wisconsin, 12:40 ET
American: 4-0 ATS in all lined games
Wisconsin: 12-23 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Arizona State at Texas, 9:40 ET
Arizona St: 2-8 ATS as an underdog
Texas: 31-16 UNDER in road games after playing a game as an underdog

Wofford at Michigan, 7:10 ET
Wofford: 11-3 ATS off an ATS win
Michigan: 8-2 OVER in road games after 3 consecutive conference games

Harvard at Cincinnati, 2:10 ET
Harvard: 14-7 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less

Delaware at Michigan State, 4:40 ET
Delaware: 7-0 OVER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Michigan St: 7-0 OVER after a combined score of 125 points or less

North Dakota State at Oklahoma, 7:25 ET
N Dakota St: 6-16 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins
Oklahoma: 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

New Mexico State at San Diego State, 9:55 ET
New Mexico St: 7-0 UNDER in all neutral court games
San Diego St: 7-0 ATS against WAC opponents

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday, March 21

Mercer at Duke, 12:15 ET
Mercer: 16-5 ATS as an underdog
Duke: 6-1 UNDER in all tournament games

Coastal Carolina at Virginia, 9:25 ET
C Carolina: 4-1 ATS in all tournament games
Virginia: 13-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Geo Washington at Memphis, 6:55 ET
Geo Washington: 0-7 ATS in a post-season tournament game
Memphis: 15-5 UNDER as a favorite

Stanford at New Mexico, 1:40 ET
Stanford: 13-4 OVER in road games after a loss by 15 points or more
New Mexico: 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Eastern Kentucky at Kansas, 4:10 ET
E Kentucky: 6-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
Kansas: 17-8 OVER as a favorite

Kansas State at Kentucky, 9:40 ET
Kansas St: 11-2 UNDER in all neutral court games
Kentucky: 16-7 UNDER as a favorite

Nebraska at Baylor, 12:40 ET
Nebraska: 20-10 ATS in all games
Baylor: 7-0 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders

UL - Lafayette at Creighton, 3:10 ET
UL - Lafayette: 2-10 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more
Creighton: 16-7 ATS in non-conference games

Providence at North Carolina, 7:20 ET
Providence: 27-48 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins
N Carolina: 30-19 ATS as a favorite

NC Central at Iowa State, 9:50 ET
NC Central: n/a
Iowa St: 33-18 OVER in all neutral court games

Stephen F. Austin at VA Commonwealth, 7:25 ET
Stephen Austin: 4-0 UNDER as a neutral court underdog
VA Commonwealth: 7-0 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament

Tulsa at UCLA, 9:55 ET
Tulsa: 15-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Ucla: 3-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog

Weber State at Arizona, 2:10 ET
Weber State: 1-8 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more
Arizona: 14-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week

Oklahoma State at Gonzaga, 4:40 ET
Oklahoma St: 18-7 ATS in first round tournament games
Gonzaga: 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

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Tournament Sleepers

March 19, 2014


Brackets are being filled out all across the globe right now, and today, we're taking our shot at the teams which we are going to be keeping our eye on from a college basketball betting perspective in the dance.

Connecticut Huskies (26-8, 17-15 ATS) – Talk about a slap in the face! The Huskies were 26-5 this year without playing games against Louisville, and it was a tested team with a lot of solid wins (and some validating losses to boot). Shabazz Napier is the best player in the country you probably aren't even thinking about going into the dance. The way this bracket sets up gives a lot of really nice spots for the Huskies. They'll draw an overrated St. Joe's team that probably wasn't good enough to get into the field without the A-10 Tournament title, then they'll likely get Villanova, a team which they are familiar with from the days the two shared the Big East together. Don't be shocked if the Huskies catch some fire, just as they did four years ago when they went from a bubble team to the Big East champs to the National Champions.

UW-Milwaukee Panthers (21-13, 20-12 ATS) – The Panthers could be this year's version of FGCU. They really take good care of the basketball, they shoot with a purpose, and they play hard-nosed defense. Most important? They're chock full of seniors who are hungry to prove that their last place projection in the Horizon League this year was a bunch of malarkey. We like the draw every bit as much for the Panthers as well. Notice that we're picking on Villanova? That loss to Seton Hall in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament has us scared quite a bit for Jay Wright and the gang. The last time Nova was a #2 seed, it was nearly beaten by American. UW-Milwaukee could do just as much, if not more damage this time around.

New Mexico State Aggies (26-9, 8-5 ATS) – You probably didn't watch a lot of WAC basketball this year, and even if you did, you can't possibly be impressed with New Mexico State. Losing to teams like Chicago State and Utah Valley don't give us all that much confidence, but what does give us some hope is the fact that Daniel Mullings, Tshilidzi Nephawe, and Sim Bhullar have been here and done that in the dance before. San Diego State and the rest of the teams in the MWC seem to be prone to upsets like these, and New Mexico, San Diego State's de facto stunt double, did only split with the Aggies this year. We love the experience NMSU brings to the table, and that experience could spell at least a cover, if not an upset in the opening round of the tourney.

NC State Wolfpack (22-13, 19-12-1 ATS) – We love that the Wolfpack are a hot ATS team right now. Their win in the First Four against Xavier was their sixth cover in a row and their eighth in their last nine games. Remember that this was a team projected to be one of the best 10 teams in America last season, and though that didn't pan out, TJ Warren and some of his role player mates from that team are back. Warren averages 24.8 points per game, and he can go off on anyone in the land. Better yet for the Pack? They draw a Saint Louis team in the second round of the dance which totally fell apart down the stretch of the season. Warren and the gang could totally blow up that Midwest Bracket big time if they really get on a roll.

Providence Friars ( 23-11, 18-15 ATS) – Though the Friars found themselves firmly sitting on the bubble heading into the Big East tournament, I still liked what I was seeing from Coach Cooley’s squad. They closed the regular season out with three wins in four tries, but most important about the three wins, they were all close with two decided by five and six points and the other coming in the form of a 1-point OT win against Marquette. The lone defeat was then avenged in the Big East tourney title game against Creighton whom they dominated throughout the game’s entirety. This is a squad that enters the Big Dance very confident, talented, and experienced. They’ve covered the closing Vegas pointspread seven of the L/9 times they hit the hardwood and are matched up by a North Carolina team they can handle provided they continue playing the type of ball that punched their ticket to the Field of 64.

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Midwest Regional Preview

March 19, 2014


East · West · Midwest · South
With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the Midwest region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. The Midwest is loaded with three of last season’s Final Four teams and some of the most prominent programs on the college basketball landscape. A case can be made for several teams for deep runs in a very intriguing region.

Favorite - Louisville
Despite the outcry Louisville was rightly seeded as a #4 seed. Last year’s championship run should not mean a thing in the seeding and the Cardinals didn’t beat an elite opponent all season. Louisville went just 3-3 in the regular season against the fellow top four teams in a mediocre AAC with the best win all season for the Cardinals being a one-point win at Cincinnati. Louisville went 0-2 in its toughest non-conference games as well and beating Rutgers by 61 should not be worth extra credit. That said, the oddsmakers are right to install Louisville as the favorite in this region and some of the early season struggles were related to the changing personnel with Chane Behanan leaving the team and Kevin Ware unable to come back from injury. Louisville has been to the Final Four the last two seasons but also remember they were an upset victim as a #4 seed in 2011 against Morehead State.

Final Four Sleeper – Duke
It seems silly to call Duke a sleeper given the historical track record for the Blue Devils and the #3 seeding for the team. In this stacked region the Blue Devils might be overlooked as three teams from last season’s Final Four are in this region. Duke has high-end wins over Michigan, UCLA, Virginia, and Syracuse this season and the Blue Devils faced one of the nation’s toughest schedules and still went 26-8. Duke will get to play the first two games basically at home with the games in Raleigh and the Duke beat #2 Michigan by 10 earlier this season. With Jabari Parker the Blue Devils have a star that can carry the team to a great run.

Sweet 16 Sleeper – St. Louis
The Billikens have had some time to get things right heading into the NCAA Tournament after losing four of the final five games of the season, including two home losses. That was after starting the season 25-2 with the two losses coming against highly regarded Wisconsin and undefeated Wichita State, with both defeats in very close games. St. Louis mostly dominated a very solid Atlantic 10 this season and while the first round matchup with either NC State or Xavier will be a challenge, St. Louis could pose problems to Louisville. The Billikens play exceptional defense and an often impatient Cardinals team that is not a strong outside shooting team could get locked into some bad shots. Louisville thrives on creating turnovers but St. Louis has excellent veteran guards and the Billikens have experience playing against a similar style VCU squad twice this season. If Louisville gets caught looking ahead to a Final Four rematch with Wichita State they could get tested in a tight defensive grind.

Best Early Round Location Edge – Duke
Playing just a few miles down the road is a huge advantage for Duke in the first two potential games of the tournament. Duke is team that fans of other teams love to rally against in other venues but that won’t be the case here as Duke takes on a dangerous Mercer team that comes from the same conference as last year’s Cinderella Florida-Gulf Coast. If Duke wins they will have an even greater location edge against Massachusetts, Iowa, or Tennessee, with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. Wichita State, Kansas State, and Kentucky should all have solid support in St. Louis, while Michigan should be well supported in Milwaukee. The Sweet 16 and Elite games will be in Indianapolis which will be a favorable location for all the top contenders except for Duke.

Best Opening Game – Texas vs. Arizona State
In a flood of Wisconsin and Michigan fans in Milwaukee a gem of a game could emerge in the 7/10 matchup. Arizona State lost five of the final games of the season but the Suns Devils beat Arizona this season and competed well in a very strong Pac-12. Texas also faded down the stretch but the Longhorns have nine wins over NCAA Tournament teams. Both teams have offensive reputations but have actually been statistically stronger defensive teams and this looks like a coin flip game that could go down to the wire.

Trendy Upset that won’t be – Kentucky over Wichita State
This is getting a bit ahead of the bracket as Kentucky could absolutely lose to a very solid Kansas State squad in the 8/9 matchup. Many saw the Wildcats play well in the SEC Tournament and assume this year’s young Wildcats team could get on a great run. The Wildcats have talent but there has been no resemblance to the 2012 championship team that was led by freshmen. Kentucky lost three of the final four regular season games and outside of beating Louisville there are few quality wins on the resume. Wichita State is a veteran tournament tested team that plays great defense and the Shockers will be fueled by the doubters.

ODDS TO WIN MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN)
Provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook
(Seeds listed in Parenthesis)

(4) LOUISVILLE 5/4
(3) DUKE 3/1
(1) WICHITA ST 4/1
(2) MICHIGAN 4/1
(8) KENTUCKY 10/1
(11 - Play-In) IOWA 30 /1
(11 - Play-In) TENNESSEE 30/1
(5) SAINT LOUIS 35/1
(6) U MASS 75/1
(7) TEXAS 75/1
(9) KANSAS ST 75/1
(10) ARIZONA ST 75/1
(12) NC STATE 200/1
(13) MANHATTAN 500/1
(14) MERCER 1000/1
(15) WOFFORD 2000/1
(16 - Play-In) CAL POLY 5000/1
(16- Play-In) TEXAS SOUTHERN 5000/1

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East Regional Preview

March 19, 2014


East · West · Midwest · South
The debate for the fourth #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament consumed the nation during the conference tournaments and Virginia was the eventual victor of that spot, leading the East region. This is a region where the #3 and #4 seeds are viewed as just as dangerous as the top seeds as the #4 seed is actually the odds-on favorite to advance to Dallas. Here is a look at the storylines in the East.

Favorite – Michigan State
The fourth seeded Spartans are actually the favorites in the region with the roster finally complete after battling injuries all season. Michigan State was dominant in three Big Ten Tournament games with hot shooting to quickly erase the memory of losing seven of the final 12 games of the regular season. With Coach Izzo and a proven tournament track record Michigan State is certainly a threat but playing as well as the Spartans did in Indianapolis last week is certainly not a given and there are plenty of talented teams in this region.

Final Four Sleeper – Villanova
It seems silly to suggest that a #2 seed that has lost four games all season is a sleeper but Villanova is getting very little national respect. The Wildcats beat Kansas on a neutral court early in the season and while they struggled in two ugly losses against Creighton they were dominant in a quality new look Big East. The upset loss in the Big East Tournament could be a motivating factor for one of the better shooting teams in the tournament and a team that has top 16 efficiency rankings on both sides of the ball. With four overtime wins this season Villanova’s record may be a bit inflated but the Wildcats played a high caliber schedule and the path in this region is reasonable.

Sweet 16 Sleeper – North Carolina
The Tar Heels lost seven of the first 18 games this season but they posted wins over Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky. North Carolina won 12 games in a row late in the season in ACC play before losing the final two games, falling against Duke in a difficult spot and then getting blasted by a Pittsburgh team that felt it needed to win to make the NCAA Tournament field. North Carolina actually fought back commendably in that game against Pittsburgh and the Tar Heels will draw some hot teams this week. Providence made a great run to win the Big East tournament and could face a bit of a letdown while Iowa State is another team that may be at risk for an early upset in the Big Dance after a great run to win the Big XII Tournament. North Carolina is far better defensively than either of those teams and in a bottom half of the East bracket that looks wide open, the Tar Heels are a viable threat for a run.

Best Early Round Location Edge – George Washington
There are no obvious advantages in the East region early in the bracket as contenders Villanova and Iowa State have solid hauls to Buffalo and San Antonio respectively. Michigan State and Cincinnati were shipped off to Spokane for some of the tougher travel situations for stronger seeds. Virginia enjoys another short trip to North Carolina after winning the ACC Tournament last week in Greensboro but the location edge in Raleigh will be greater in the opening game for #9 seed George Washington, also facing a short trip south. Memphis will be at a disadvantage in that matchup and could help the Colonials to a minor upset. The bracket moves to New York for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games which will be a reasonable but not overly advantageous venture for most of the contenders.

Best Opening Game – Connecticut vs. St. Joseph’s
The Huskies lost eight games this season but five of those losses came to the same two teams, Louisville and SMU. The Huskies are one of two teams to beat Florida this season but they face a tough first round game against a St. Joseph’s squad that won three big games in a row to seal a NCAA Tournament spot, winning the A-10 Conference tournament in the process. St. Joseph’s went 5-0 against VCU and Dayton this season but the Hawks only had one other win against a NCAA Tournament team all season. This should be an interesting game in Buffalo but one big advantage for Connecticut is at the line where the Huskies have shot 12 percent better than the Hawks on the season.

Trendy Upset that won’t be – Michigan State over Virginia
A lot of things have to happen for this game to occur but most expect the Spartans to take on Virginia in the Sweet 16 in New York. Most expect Michigan State to win that potential matchup as well despite the seeding in the bracket. Virginia is one of the most complete teams in the nation however, certainly among the best defensive teams and a lot better on offense than the scoring averages suggest. The ACC has been underrated this season and Virginia won the league going away while also capturing the ACC Tournament crown. Michigan State finally put it all together in the Big Ten Tournament but that has not been the norm this season as the Spartans have been all over the map offensively. Michigan State also has to travel to Spokane before heading to New York and the Spartans are just as likely to be upset early as they are to make the Final Four.


ODDS TO WIN EAST REGIONAL (New York, NY)
Provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook
(Seeds listed in Parenthesis)

(4) MICHIGAN STATE 8/5
(1) VIRGINIA 3/1
(2) VILLANOVA 3/1
(3) IOWA STATE 7/1
(6) NORTH CAROLINA 10/1
(7) UCONN 10/1
(5) CINCINNATI 20/1
(8) MEMPHIS 30/1
(12) HARVARD 40/1
(11) PROVIDENCE 60/1
(9) GEORGE WASHINGTON 75/1
(10) ST JOE'S 75/1
(13) DELAWARE 500/1
(14) NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 1000/1
(15) MILWAUKEE 1000/1
(16) COASTAL CAROLINA 5000/1

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South Regional Preview

March 19, 2014


East · West · Midwest · South
Top seeded Florida leads the South region with several high profile programs with great history posted in these matchups. Here is a look at some of the storylines in the South quarter of the bracket and some advantages that may be ahead in the region. The top four seeds have a combined 17 national championships between them.

Favorite – Florida
Florida is the clear favorite in this region and one of the favorites to win the whole tournament. The Gators only lost twice all season with both misses in close games on the road against quality teams. The early season loss at Wisconsin was also without SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin. Florida has won 26 games in a row but they did have two close calls in the SEC Tournament and the overall strength of the SEC can rightfully be called into question. The Gators beat (South #2 seed) Kansas in the regular season but that was the only win against an elite squad all season. Florida has been impressive on both sides of the ball but the offense can go through some scoring droughts and this is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation despite the success.

Final Four Sleeper – Ohio State
After starting the season 15-0 Ohio State went through an ugly slide losing five of six games in January. The Buckeyes were upset a few times down the stretch as well but Ohio State has wins at Wisconsin and at Iowa, while also getting a win over Michigan State and nearly beating Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Going through the Big Ten grind will help the Buckeyes in the tournament and this is a veteran team with elite playmakers though the roster is not very deep. If the Buckeyes get by Dayton they would likely face Syracuse, a #3 seed that has really struggled in recent weeks and then they could have to contend with a young Kansas team that may not have its full complement of players. Thad Matta has 11 NCAA Tournament wins the last four years and the Buckeyes could hang with Florida in fierce defensive battle.

Sweet 16 Sleeper – New Mexico
After being upset against Harvard last season in the NCAA Tournament New Mexico should be on a mission this season. The Lobos just won the Mountain West Tournament and they have lost just six games all season. Statistically the Lobos have strong numbers on both sides of the ball and they will be a threat for a deep run. A first round matchup with Stanford will be a challenge and facing Kansas in St. Louis will be difficult task. Joel Embiid is not likely to play and the Jayhawks are a young team that has had some inconsistency down the stretch despite immense talent however. New Mexico is a team to look out for as a threat to pick up a few wins.

Best Early Round Location Edge – UCLA
The Bruins get to play two hours away in San Diego and while several other teams in this region have similar nearby venues the Bruins have the advantage of its opponents making very long trips out west. UCLA meets Tulsa in an intriguing first round game and the late start time should only help the favorite on Pacific Time. If they meet Virginia Commonwealth in the next round the location edge will be even more prominent. The region moves to Memphis for the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 and while that is not favorable venue for the Bruins, none of the top contenders will enjoy a big edge in that location either.

Best Opening Game – Virginia Commonwealth vs. Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin may not have played the most difficult schedule but the Lumberjacks have not lost since November. They do not have any quality wins on the season but rarely do the small conference tournament entrants ride into the field with such a run of dominance. While VCU leads the nation in creating turnovers, SFA is third in the nation in the category while taking better care of the ball on offense. As the spread on this game suggests, this won’t be a major upset if it happens.

Trendy Upset that won’t be – Tulsa over UCLA
Led by Danny Manning the Golden Hurricane have shaken off a 1-6 start to the season to now have won 11 straight games, upsetting Louisiana Tech to win the Conference USA Tournament. It has been a great run but most of the wins came against the bottom of the conference and this looks like a team happy to be in the field. The offensive numbers for the season are pretty poor and this is not a strong shooting team. UCLA has elite talent and the Bruins will get to play close to home in a late night start Friday night. A late season loss to Washington State seems to have been a wake-up call for this squad as they played brilliantly in the Pac-12 Tournament and the Bruins are a threat to make a run in this region.

ODDS TO WIN SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis, TN)
Provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook
(Seeds listed in Parenthesis)

(1) FLORIDA 1/1
(2) KANSAS 3/1
(3) SYRACUSE 6/1
(4) UCLA 8/1
(6) OHIO ST 8/1
(5) VCU 12/1
(7) NEW MEXICO 20/1
(9) PITTSBURGH 20/1
(10) STANFORD 50/1
(8) COLORADO 75/1
(11) DAYTON 75/1
(12) STEPHEN F AUSTIN 150/1
(13) TULSA 300/1
(14) WESTERN MICHIGAN 1000/1
(15) EASTERN KENTUCKY 1000/1
(16) ALBANY 1000/1

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West Regional Preview

March 19, 2014


East · West · Midwest · South
The West is often overlooked nationally in the college basketball landscape and in this year’s tournament the West region will likely be the most overlooked region as well with most of the tournament favorites and most nationally popular teams playing elsewhere. The top contenders won’t mind the lack of attention in this region, here is a look at some of the most intriguing developments out West.

Favorite – Arizona
Despite little fanfare Arizona has by far the biggest odds gap between the second team in line in the regional futures odds in comparing the favorites in the four regions. Many doubt the Wildcats due to the late season loss of Brandon Ashley but this is still an extremely dangerous team that can win it all. The Wildcats have a veteran point guard, great size, and a do-it-all freshman that will be a NBA lottery pick. Venues in San Diego and then Anaheim also line up favorably for a deep run for the Wildcats. The Wildcats beat (West #4 seed) San Diego State in regular season and also posted wins over Duke and Michigan while winning the Pac-12. Arizona is also the top ranked team nationally in defensive efficiency as well.

Final Four Sleeper – Baylor
The Bears lost seven of eight games at one point in Big XII play but the Bears have some momentum now, winning seven of eight to close the regular season and winning three games in the Big XII Tournament before falling short against Iowa State in the final minutes of the championship game. The Bears have great depth and few teams have been better in offensive efficiency or rebounding. Baylor has 11 wins over NCAA Tournament teams this season and the Bears have been a different team with point guard Kenny Chery back to full health. The Bears won the NIT last season so this is team with better tournament experience than you might expect and playing in San Antonio for the first two potential games will help as well.

Sweet 16 Sleeper – New Mexico State
Spokane seems to be a venue where many are expecting some upsets with Harvard and North Dakota State as popular picks in the brackets. Fewer are looking at the Aggies as a serious threat but New Mexico State has some solid wins this season despite playing in the new look WAC. New Mexico State beat UTEP twice and also beat Drake. They also beat New Mexico on the road, the team that just beat San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament final. The Aggies have one of the tallest teams in the tournament and Mountain West teams have a track record of performing poorly in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. San Diego State was upset by Florida Gulf Coast last season and in a Spokane grouping with no real location edge for anyone, the underdogs expect to make some noise. Should the Aggies move on they would draw either a vulnerable Oklahoma squad that struggles defensively or a North Dakota State team that would be coming off its own big upset win.

Best Early Round Location Edge – Wisconsin
The Badgers will get to play in nearby Milwaukee with great support going against far away teams. If the Badgers get by American they will face either BYU or Oregon and those western schools will not likely feature great support. The last time Wisconsin was dealt games in Milwaukee in the NCAA Tournament things did not work out with a loss to #3 seed Pittsburgh in the second game as an under seeded #6 team but the Badgers will have a great opportunity to move on and wipe away last season’s early exit. Heading to Anaheim won’t provide an edge for Wisconsin where they could meet Arizona or San Diego State should they get to the regional final.

Best Opening Game – Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma State
These are two dangerous teams that could be a threat against top seeded Arizona. Gonzaga nearly lost in a 1/16 matchup last season and has not had a great postseason track record in recent years. That may make the Bulldogs a bit overlooked this season despite dominance in WCC as usual and a few quality wins outside of conference. Gonzaga has great experience and size and the talent to move on. Oklahoma State will be under the microscope after the tumultuous season for Marcus Smart as the Cowboys failed to live up to the lofty preseason billing. The Cowboys have some late season momentum now with some big wins down the stretch and many see the Cowboys as a final four dark horse. It is a shame that one of these teams has to lose but it should make for one of the best round of 64 games.

Trendy Upset that won’t be – North Dakota State over Oklahoma
The Bison put together a great season with a 25-6 record they did not beat a single top 100 team this season. They played St. Mary’s, Southern Miss, and Ohio State but lost all three games. The win over Notre Dame did come with Jerian Grant on the floor for the Irish but the upset came in an awful spot for Notre Dame, just days before a huge game with Indiana. Notre Dame wound up with a losing record this season as that big win continued to diminish in value as the season went on. Oklahoma has a similar profile to North Dakota State with a great offense and a somewhat vulnerable defense. The numbers for Oklahoma are stronger on both sides of the ball however and the Sooners went through one of the tougher schedules in the nation playing in a deep Big XII. After losing in the first round of the tournament last season this will be a focused Oklahoma squad that will manage to hold off a stiff fight.

ODDS TO WIN WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA)
Provided by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook
(Seeds listed in Parenthesis)

(1) ARIZONA 10/11
(2) WISCONSIN 7/2
(3) CREIGHTON 5/1
(4) SAN DIEGO ST 10/1
(5) OKLAHOMA 20/1
(6) BAYLOR 15/1
(7) OREGON 15/1
(9) OKLAHOMA ST 12/1
(8) GONZAGA 20/1
(11) NEBRASKA 75/1
(10) BYU 75/1
(12) NORTH DAKOTA ST 100/1
(13) NEW MEXICO ST 200/1
(14) LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 300/1
(15) AMERICAN 1000/1
(16) WEBER ST 5000/1