The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

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NCAAB

Sunday, March 9

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Three steps to spotting NCAAB conference tournament upsets
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The NCAA tournament may get all the hype but for hardcore basketball bettors, the best value lies in the major conference tournaments.

With the big boys kicking off the postseason this week, we pinpoint a few key components when it comes to spotting possible upset teams in the conference tournaments.

Senior value

Schools that are loaded with upperclassmen always get a boost when it comes to March as many players will be ending their basketball careers, leading to great performances.

"Teams with veterans and several seniors often perform well in conference tournaments, especially when they are in must-win situations," Covers Expert Steve Merril says. "These are the type of teams that can sometimes make a run and upset some favorites, especially if the veteran team is facing a younger team that might be better, but young with freshman and sophomores."

Current teams that have large senior cores include Louisville (15-13 ATS), which has talented seniors Russ Smith and Luke Hancock, St. Louis (25-5 SU, 9-18 ATS), which has five seniors on the roster and Iowa State (22-7, 12-15 ATS), which has seniors Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane leading the team in scoring, assists, steals and rebounds.


3-point shooting

Like in the NCAA tournament, you can never have enough perimeter shooting. In a one-game format, it’s sometimes impossible to knock off a team that is scoring from downtown at will.

"Teams that shoot the 3-point shot well are also dangerous in conference tournaments because if they get hot during a three or four-day span, they can make a run and upset some more talented teams," says Merrill.

Creighton (23-6, 15-12) is second in the Big East and leads the country in 3-point shooting, at 41.9 percent from downtown, and makes over 10 threes a night. Other teams with strong 3-point averages include UCLA (40.1%), Michigan (40%), UConn (39.4%), Michigan State (39.1%) and Arizona State (39%).


Peaking at the right time

Often times, a team that was slow out off the blocks to start conference play – for whatever reason (injuries, suspensions, coaching changes) – finds its form just in time for the conference tournament. These hot team can shock a higher seed that may have back into the postseason after cooling down late in the schedule.

Teams that are on streaks heading into the conference tournaments include Providence (three straight wins leading into a season finale with Creighton), Memphis (wins over SMU and Louisville this week), North Carolina (10 straight wins leading into season finale with Duke), and Oregon (six straight wins heading into season finale with Arizona).

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NCAAB

Sunday, March 9


Louisville routs UConn, claims share of AAC title

In a game that was billed as a matchup between two of the top guards in the nation, Louisville forward Montrezl Harrell stole the show.

With neither Russ Smith of Louisville nor Shabazz Napier of Connecticut having a productive scoring outing, Harrell got 20 points, 11 rebounds and three assists as the No. 11 Cardinals thumped No. 19 UConn 81-48 Saturday at the KFC Yum! Center.

Louisville (26-5, 15-3) claimed a share of the American Athletic Conference championship with No. 15 Cincinnati. A postgame coin flip went to Cincinnati and left Louisville with the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament.

NOTES: Louisville tied with Cincinnati for the AAC title but lost a coin toss and is the No, 2 seed for the conference tourney, which begins Tuesday in Memphis. The Cardinals received a bye and will play the winner of the USF-Rutgers game in the second round on Thursday. ... UConn, the No, 4 seed, also received a bye and will play No. 5 seed Memphis on Thursday. ... Of being tied with Cincinnati for the conference title, Louisville coach Rick Pitino said: "I'm delighted to be tied with Mick Cronin's team." Cronin was an assistant to Pitino at Louisville. ... It was Senior Day as Louisville honored G Russ Smith, F Luke Hancock, C Stephan VanTreese and G Tim Henderson before the game. Those four represent the winningest class in school history with 131 wins (against 30 losses) and counting.


McDermott surpasses 3,000 points in Creighton's win

Creighton forward Doug McDermott joined college basketball's elite 3,000-point club on Saturday night.

The senior scored 45 points to raise his careeer total to 3,011 in the 13th-ranked Bluejays' 88-73 victory over Providence in Omaha, Neb.

McDermott became the eight player in men's Divison I basketball to reach the milestone. The two-time All-American got there when he sank a deep 3-point shot with 11:27 remaining in the Big East game for his 34th points of the game.

McDermott, the son of Creighton coach Greg McDermott, left the game with 1:13 remaining to a standing ovation from the record crowd of 18,868 at the CenturyLink Center.

The others to reach 3,000 career points are LSU's Pete Maravich (3,667), Portland State's Freeman Williams (3,249), La Salle's Lionel Simmons (3,217), Mississippi Valley State's Alphonso Ford (3,165), Texas Southern's Harry Kelly (3,066), Saint Peter's Keydren Clark (3,058) and Bradley's Hersey Hawkins (3,008).

Creighton (24-6, 14-4) wrapped up its regular season and enters the Big Eight tournament next week as the No. 2 seed behind Villanova. Providence, on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid, fell to 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the conference.

Providence's Bryce Cotton, the Big East's second-leading scorer, had all of his 23 points in the second half


Wichita State third team ever to start 33-0

Nobody expected the Wichita State Shockers to be this dominant at the start of the season. The Shockers became only the third team in Men's D-1 history to start 33-0 with a 67-42 victory over Missouri State Saturday.

Wichita State joins the 90-91 UNLV and the 78-79 Indiana State teams as the only schools to go 33-0 in their season.

With the win Saturday, the Shockers move onto the MVC championships Sunday. Wichita State is currently +1000 to win the NCAA championships according to Williamhill.com.

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MARCH TOTALS:

28- 41 - 3.....................SINGLE PLAYS

14 - 14 - 1............................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 14 - 1.............................TRIPLE PLAYS

2- 1 ...........................CONFERENCE GOY



Sunday, March 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern +9 500
Purdue -

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Virginia -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Maryland -

Winthrop - 12:00 PM ET Winthrop +2 500
Coastal Carolina -

Syracuse - 2:00 PM ET Syracuse -2 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Florida St. -

Saint Louis - 2:00 PM ET Massachusetts -3 500 *****
Massachusetts -

Mercer - 2:00 PM ET Florida Gulf Coast -2 500
Florida Gulf Coast -

Indiana St. - 2:05 PM ET Wichita St. -14 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Wichita St. -

Northeastern - 2:30 PM ET Delaware -5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Delaware -

La Salle - 4:00 PM ET St. Joseph's -8.5 500 *****
St. Joseph's -

Michigan St - 4:30 PM ET Michigan St +2.5 500
Ohio St. -

Canisius - 4:30 PM ET Iona -4 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Iona -

William & Mary - 5:00 PM ET William & Mary +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Towson -

Penn St. - 5:15 PM ET Penn St. +7 500
Minnesota -

Boston College - 6:00 PM ET N.C. State -6.5 500
N.C. State -

Western Carolina - 6:00 PM ET Davidson -9 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Davidson -

South Dakota - 7:00 PM ET Denver -5 500
Denver -

Quinnipiac - 7:00 PM ET Quinnipiac +6 500
Manhattan -

Wisconsin - 7:30 PM ET Nebraska +2.5 500 *****
Nebraska -

Hartford - 7:30 PM ET Hartford +4.5 500
Stony Brook -

Georgia Southern - 8:30 PM ET Georgia Southern +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Wofford -

Western Illinois - 9:30 PM ET Western Illinois +9.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
South Dakota State -

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Wichita State hammered Indiana State, is the first team since UNLV in '91 to get to the NCAAs undefeated. No small feat.

-- Miami Heat lost its last three games, Pacers their last four; Atlanta lost 14 of its last 15 games, is 26-35, but still in #8 slot by three games.

-- Phoenix/Memphis are both 36-26; if playoffs started today, one of them would miss the playoffs. Doesn't seem right.

-- Cardinals signed Cuban free agent SS Aledmys Diaz to a contract that is thought to be for four years, between $4-5M a year. Diaz is 23.

-- 68-year old Cliff Ellis won his first conference tournament in 39 years as a coach, as Coastal Carolina won Big South, over 76-61 over Winthrop.

-- You don't think the Big X is the best league? Oklahoma State is the #8 seed, Baylor is the #7 seed. In a 10-team league. I rest my case.

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Weekend......

13) The more I think about it, the more it annoys me that the major league baseball season is starting at 4am on March 22, in Australia. Its not as bad as having the Super Bowl in London would be, but at what point do owners stop trying to suck every dollar out of every corner of the globe?

12) WCC tournament was off Sunday, but not to give kids a break from a three games-in-three days schedule. BYU is in the WCC now and they don't play ball on Sundays, not even in the NCAA tournament.

11) Albany 67, Vermont 58-- Catamounts went 15-1 in America East, beat Great Danes twice by total of 40 points, but had to play them in Albany in the semi-finals and got upset by Will Brown's club for the second year in a row. My alma mater gets a trip downstate to play Stony Brook on ESPN Saturday morning in the America East finals.

10) Marquette lost its last two games, both by a point, both in double OT; 17-14 Eagles finished 9-9 in Big East, are headed to the NIT.

9) Memphis-UConn is an interesting first round game Thursday in the AAC. Huskies lost by 33 at Louisville Saturday; curious to see how they bounce back from that. Losing coach will take some heat, for sure.

8) Mercer 68, Florida Gulf Coast 60-- Bears are in NCAAs for first time in 29 years; they won in Fort Myers, after losing to FGCU in Atlantic Sun final the last two years. Mercer is located in Macon, GA, hometown one of my boyhood heroes, Blue Moon Odom, who pitched for the A's in the 70's.

7) Not the best security at the Thunderdome in Santa Barbara, where a nitwit came out of the stands, ran across the court, and got in the face of Hawai'i coach Gib Arnold, during the game. At lot of mid-major, low major schools, there isn't a lot of cash for security, stuff like that is more likely to happen.

6) Former NBA great Rick Barry turns 70 years old on March 28; he has a son who is a freshman guard at Charleston. Go figure. Canyon Barry is fifth Barry son to play D-I basketball; his mom is #3 on the all-time scoring list at William & Mary, so he has superior scoring genes.

5) I'm watching a replay of Saturday's Indiana-Michigan game, and NFL ref Gene Steratore is working the game; that game ends, and a replay of Sunday's Northwestern-Purdue game comes on-- Steratore is working that game.

How much money do these guys make? In addition to his NFL gig, Steratore has reffed 51 basketball games this season, in 10 different states.

4) Towson State took 61 foul shots Saturday, made 39, in their 80-71 win over James Madison; have never seen that in a 40-minute game before.

3) Towson got upset by Wm & Mary Sunday; CAA final will be Delaware against the Tribe in Baltimore. Blue Hens are the #1 seed.

2) Davidson is bolting the Southern Conference for CAA next year; they got hosed a little on a touch foul with 0:03.3 left in OT in their semi-final loss to Western Carolina.. Always wary of teams bolting a conference when they play in the conference tournament for the last time. I'm just sayin'.....

1) Referre Jim Burr is getting even feistier as his distinguished officiating career continues; he gave out five technical fouls last year in 63 games. So far this year, his crews have given out 18 T's, in only 47 games.

Mr Burr was refereeing games when I was in college in the late 70's; he was a VP at the bank my friend went to. If ever a guy should write a book or go on TV to work games, it is him. Too bad it'll probably never happen.

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 10

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WM & MARY (19 - 11) vs. DELAWARE (23 - 9) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DELAWARE is 3-1 against the spread versus WM & MARY over the last 3 seasons
DELAWARE is 4-0 straight up against WM & MARY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST MARYS-CA (22 - 10) vs. GONZAGA (26 - 6) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ST MARYS-CA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
ST MARYS-CA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
GONZAGA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
ST MARYS-CA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 5-3 against the spread versus ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 6-2 straight up against ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (21 - 10) vs. BYU (22 - 10) - 3/10/2014, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 189-139 ATS (+36.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
BYU is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
BYU is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
BYU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
BYU is 70-111 ATS (-52.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 5-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALL ST (5 - 24) at OHIO U (21 - 10) - 3/10/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 118-87 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all home games since 1997.
OHIO U is 118-87 ATS (+22.3 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
OHIO U is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
OHIO U is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
OHIO U is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 2-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 3-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENT ST (16 - 15) at MIAMI OHIO (12 - 17) - 3/10/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
KENT ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 3-3 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 4-2 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (10 - 20) at E MICHIGAN (18 - 13) - 3/10/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
E MICHIGAN is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 5-1 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 3-3 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOWLING GREEN (12 - 19) at N ILLINOIS (14 - 16) - 3/10/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
BOWLING GREEN is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
N ILLINOIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
N ILLINOIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
N ILLINOIS is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
N ILLINOIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MANHATTAN (23 - 7) vs. IONA (21 - 9) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 4-3 against the spread versus IONA over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 4-3 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (15 - 14) vs. N DAKOTA ST (23 - 6) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-0 against the spread versus N DAKOTA ST over the last 3 seasons
N DAKOTA ST is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S DAKOTA ST (18 - 11) vs. IUPU-FT WAYNE (23 - 9) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
S DAKOTA ST is 5-2 against the spread versus IUPU-FT WAYNE over the last 3 seasons
S DAKOTA ST is 6-1 straight up against IUPU-FT WAYNE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W CAROLINA (18 - 14) vs. WOFFORD (18 - 12) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WOFFORD is 3-2 against the spread versus W CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
W CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against WOFFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MD-EAST SHORE (6 - 23) vs. NORFOLK ST (17 - 13) - 3/10/2014, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORFOLK ST is 6-0 straight up against MD-EAST SHORE over the last 3 seasons

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S CAROLINA ST (9 - 20) vs. SAVANNAH ST (12 - 18) - 3/10/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAVANNAH ST is 6-0 straight up against S CAROLINA ST over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 10

CAA tournament (Baltimore)
Delaware beat William & Mary twice this year, 76-71 (-6) at home, and 89-72 (+4) in rematch Jan 29; Blue Hens won last five series games, are 18-2 in last 20 games; they've played three starters 35+ minutes the last two nights. Wm & Mary, won eight of last eleven games- they had three guys play 32+ minutes Sunday, after only one played more than 27:00 Sunday. Last time the #1 seed won the CAA tourney: 2010.

WCC tournament (Las Vegas)
Gonzaga hammered St Mary's twice this year, 73-51 (-8) at home, then 75-47 (-1) in Moraga nine days ago, game that was 42-22 at half. Gaels are 22-7 in last 29 series games, but just 3-2 in this tournament the last five years. Zags snuck by Santa Clara Saturday on last-second hoop by young Stockton. St Mary's lost five of its last six games against teams in top 100. Eight of last nine St Mary's games stayed under total.

San Francisco won its last six games since losing 68-63 (+11.5) at BYU Feb 8; Dons lost 83-76 in first meeting this year, are 1-5 vs Cougars in WCC play. BYU won five in row, nine of last ten games, with last four wins by 8+ points. USF is 4-3 in this tourney last four years, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Over last decade, BYU is 3-4 in its 2nd conference tournament game. Last seven USF games stayed under total.

MAC tournament (campus sites)
Ball State lost 12 of last 13 games; they lost 71-51 (+14) at Ohio Jan 15, turning ball over 21 times (-9) in game that was only 27-21 at half. Ohio won five of last six series games, winning last two here by 4-20 points. Bobcats are 5-5 in last ten games after starting season 16-5; they've lost last three home games. Cardinals are 2-7 in first tourney games last nine years, with both wins in overtime. Last nine Ball games went over total.

Road team won both Kent-Miami games this year; Kent (+2) won 75-63 in first meeting, lost 73-61 (-6) in rematch six nights ago; Flashes won last two visits here, by 20-12 points. Kent lost four of last five games, six of last eight on road- they're 10-1 in first tourney game last 11 years, Miami is 2-3 in its last five, 3-4 in its last seven home games; Eight of last eleven Miami games stayed under the total.

Eastern Michigan beat Central Michigan twice this year, 72-59 (+3.5) at home, 64-42 (+10.5) here Feb 26, ending 1-6 series skid. Chippewas are 1-4 in this tourney last four years, losing last two games by total of five points. Eastern won two games in tourney LY after being 3-10 prior to that; Eagles won last six home games, with five wins by 12+ points. 8 of last 11 Central Michigan games went over the total.

Northern Illinois is 7-5 in last dozen games, but 10-0-2 vs spread; they are 2-0 as MAC favorites this year. Huskies (+9) won ugly 45-36 game at Bowling Green Jan 12; Falcons scored only 3 points in last 12:05 of loss, which ended 7-game series win streak. BG won its last three visits here. Over is 9-4 in last 13 Bowling Green games. These two teams are the MAC's two worst teams protecting ball (turnovers 24+% of time).

MAAC tournament (Springfield MA)
Iona played four starters 36+ minutes in tense win 75-72 over Canisius; Gaels (-2.5) beat Manhattan 85-73 in first meeting this year, then lost at Draddy Gym 80-77 (+4) in OT 10 days ago, Iona's only loss in its last 15 games. Jaspers won four in row, 10 of last 11 games- they lost 60-57 to Manhattan in this game LY. Four of last five Jasper games went under total. Last time MAAC's #1 seed won conference tourney was 2010.

Summit tournament (Sioux Falls, SD)
Denver (even) beat North Dakota State 67-63 at home, then lost 78-68 in road rematch (+10.5) nine days ago; Pioneers played seven guys last night- Olson played all 40, three other starters 30+. Bison won its last seven games, covering three of last four. Denver is 1-3 in its conference tourney games last three years, played in two other leagues. Eight of last nine ND State games stayed under the total.

South Dakota State won nine of last ten games overall, seven games in a row on this court, with lot of Jackrabbit fans in house; they lost 82-75 (+1.5) at Fort Wayne, then won rematch 79-51 (-4.5) Feb 6, Mastadons' worst loss of year. Jacks played one guy 30+ minutes in easy win; Fort Wayne played Saturday, had Sunday off. These teams are #2/#3 in pace in Summit League, so this game figures to be up-and-down.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, March 10

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
KENT STATE vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Kent State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Kent State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami (Ohio)
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kent State
Miami (Ohio) is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. OHIO
Ball State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Ohio
Ball State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 6 games
Ohio is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

7:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
Central Michigan is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games when playing at home against Central Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games

8:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Bowling Green is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Bowling Green is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green

9:00 PM
ST. MARY'S vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Mary's
Gonzaga is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

11:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. BYU
No trends available
BYU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, March 10

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Long shots of 100/1 or higher that could win the NCAA tournament
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March Madness is the time to get swept up in all the magic and momentum of Cinderella teams taking the NCAA tournament by storm.

Nothing’s better than saying “I told you so” when those underdogs pull off an improbable upset. Well, unless you tossed some money on those stunners before the tournament took off.

Here are five live long shots to win the NCAA tournament, of 100/1 or more odds. Perhaps there’s a Cinderella run in one of them.

Cincinnati Bearcats 100/1 (26-5, 13-12 ATS)

The AAC champion Bearcats have a long-standing reputation for being a tough, hardnosed basketball team and have carried that over to 2014. Possessing the fourth-best defense in the nation and holding teams to a low 58.7 points per outing, the Bearcats can stay in games on most nights just with their defense. If they can find a way to improve on its scoring, by finding support for 20.9 ppg scorer Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati could be a nightmare matchup for most teams in the tournament.


Oklahoma Sooners 100/1 (23-8, 18-10-1 ATS)

The Sooners shocked the Big 12 by not only being the best team in Oklahoma (sorry OSU Cowboys), but also finishing second in the conference. Pushing the pace with a strong transition game, Oklahoma is eighth in the nation in scoring. If they get hot, the Sooners don't lose and, with a matching 23-8 record with Kansas, they’re good value at 100-1.


Arizona State Sun Devils 300/1 (21-10, 14-14-1 ATS)

Arizona State cracks this list based on its outstanding 38.8 percent 3-point shooting and the talented combination of guard Jahii Carson (18.9 PPG) and post presence Jordan Bachynski (11.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.2 BPG), 55.1 FG%. With sharpshooters Jermaine Marshall and Jonathan Gilling supporting Carson and Bachynski, the Sun Devils have enough firepower to play awhile in March.


Arkansas Razorbacks 300/1 (21-10, 15-13 ATS)

The Razorbacks knocked off Kentucky on the road and gave tournament favorite Florida all it could handle in an overtime loss, possessing one of the most lethal paces in the NCAA. Up-and-down basketball at a clip of 80.6 points per game is promising, but the Razorbacks will have to improve on a poor defense and a shaky record away from home.


Oregon Ducks 200/1 (22-8, 16-10-3 ATS)

Finishing off their season with a big home win over Arizona, the Ducks have won seven straight heading into the Pac-12 tournament and are looking to continue that run heading into an almost guaranteed tournament berth. Oregon is ninth in scoring and fourth in free-throw percentage, and is another team that can be a contender if it can get the stops needed to outrun opponents in transition.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, March 10


Saint Louis stops UMass to take Atlantic 10 title

Saint Louis had a lot riding on Sunday's outcome against Massachusetts.

And with the game tied, the clock ticking down and the ball in Saint Louis guard Jordair Jett's hands, forward Dwayne Evans had just one thing on his mind.

"We were going to win," he said.

Evans was right.

Jett hit the game-winning layup with 4 seconds left to help the 17th-ranked Billikens snap a three-game losing streak and clinch their second straight Atlantic 10 Conference regular-season title with a gritty 64-62 win over the Minutemen.

Saint Louis (26-5, 13-3 Atlantic 10) already had wrapped up the top seed in this week's A-10 tournament, but needed another victory in a hostile environment to send them into the postseason on a positive note.

NOTES: Massachusetts is one of 10 Division I teams to start the same lineup all season. ... Saint Louis is one of the few teams in the country to start five seniors. ... The Minutemen entered the game averaging a league-high 76.9 points per game, which ranks 43rd nationally. The Billikens, meanwhile, came in leading the conference and were 15th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 60.9 points per game. ... UMass G Chaz Williams, who entered the game tied with Chris Lowe for the most career assists in school history at 678, set the new standard early in the first half. ... These two teams met in the opening round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament, with the Billikens winning 51-46. That was the last time the Minutemen made the Big Dance.


Wichita St. wins MVC tourney, cover eight straight

The Wichita State Shockers improved their record to 34-0 when they won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final 83-69 against Indiana State Sunday afternoon and in doing so the Shockers also extended their streak of cashing for their backers.

The Shockers - who were 12.5-point faves against Indiana State - have now covered the spread in eight consecutive games and are now 24-6-1 ATS on the season.

Wichita State will now have to wait until Selection Sunday on March 16 when they will most likely be named a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament.


Maryland stuns No. 5 Virginia in ACC finale

Maryland coach Mark Turgeon knew his team was close and on the brink of doing something special after playing in close games all season.

After loses earlier in the year to three ranked teams -- Pittsburgh, Duke and Syracuse -- by a combined eight points, Saturday afternoon's matchup with No. 5-ranked Virginia had all of the fixings to satisfy a sold out crowd at Comcast Center.

It did just that.

Playing in its last home game as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Maryland upset the Cavaliers 75-69 in overtime to close out ACC regular-season play.

Maryland, which has been a charter member of the ACC since 1953, will join the Big Ten for the 2014-15 school year.

NOTES: Virginia G Justin Anderson, who was originally committed to Maryland, averaged 12.5 points per game last season in two games against the Terrapins. ... Former Maryland coaches Gary Williams and Lefty Driesell were in attendance for the game. ... The loss ends Virginia's 13-game winning streak. ... The Cavaliers will enter next week's ACC Tournament as the No. 1 seed while Maryland will either be the eight or nine seed. ... This was Virginia's first lost since a 69-65 loss to Duke on January 13.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs (26-6) play St. Mary's tonight in the West Coast Conference semifinals and catch the Gaels with an 0-7 ATS record in their last 7 games against teams with a winning SU record. Gonzaga is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-6). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, MARCH 10

Game 515-516: Delaware vs. William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 55.733; William & Mary 49.264
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 6 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: Delaware by 4 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (-4 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 58.999; Gonzaga 67.720
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9; 125
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-6); Under

Game 519-520: San Francisco vs. BYU (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 59.052; BYU 66.651
Dunkel Line: BYU by 7 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: BYU by 4 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-4 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Ball State at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 45.732; Ohio 56.943
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 11
Vegas Line: Ohio by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+13 1/2)

Game 523-524: Kent State at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 49.953; Miami (OH) 56.081
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 6
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-2 1/2)

Game 525-526: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 46.418; Eastern Michigan 56.312
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 10
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+12 1/2)

Game 527-528: Bowling Green at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.790; Northern Illinois 51.599
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3)

Game 529-530: Manhattan vs. Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 58.155; Iona 60.708
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2 1/2; 160
Vegas Line: Pick; 156
Dunkel Pick: Iona; Over

Game 531-532: Denver vs. North Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 53.913; North Dakota State 62.212
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 8 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 5 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-5 1/2); Over

Game 533-534: South Dakota State vs. IPFW (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 56.960; IPFW 55.462
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 1 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 4; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+4); Under

Game 535-536: Western Carolina vs. Wofford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.057; Wofford 50.979
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 1; 144
Vegas Line: Wofford by 3; 131
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+3); Over

Game 541-542: MD-Eastern Shore vs. Norfolk State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 36.474; Norfolk State 49.889
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-11)

Game 543-544: South Carolina State vs. Savannah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 38.624; Savannah State 43.692
Dunkel Line: Savannah State by 5
Vegas Line: Savannah State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina State (+7 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

MAC Betting Notes

March 9, 2014


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

March 10, 12-15 (Opening Round games at campus sites of higher seeds...Remaining games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: TOLEDO, BUFFALO, WESTERN MICHIGAN, AKRON

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Like the Horizon League, and in hopes of ensuring a better chance to land an at-large bid, the MAC has re-arranged its postseason tournament where the division winners earn byes into the semis and the No. 3-4 seeds start in the quarters. That makes seeding the Final Four an easy task. The question is who wins?

What we know for sure is that it’s been 10 years since a West Division team has cut down the nets in this tourney. And the team from the West with the best chance is TOLEDO, who returns to the party after sitting out on the sidelines with an NCAA imposed suspension for low APR grades. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS the last four games in this event and 3-0 ATS the last three when taking points. UT dominated beatable opponents (18-1 SU versus sub .500 foes) but struggled in conference wars at the pay window (4-13 ATS at press time) this season.

Like Toledo, BUFFALO was one of five teams that returned 4 starters this season and that experience paid off for first-year head coach Bobby Hurley as the Bulls are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS in conference play at press time.

WESTERN MICHIGAN was the last team from the West Division to claim the crown in 2004, and they could be in position to do so again this year. A 9-1 SU closing run at press time, along with a 5-0 ATS mark as tourney favorites, makes the Broncos legit. AKRON, the defending champion, has made the finals each of the last 7 years and is 7-1 SUATS the last three years in this tournament. A 13-2 SU mark in its last fifteen MAC tourney games certainly deems the Zips worthy here.

THE SLEEPER: OHIO U

Like Akron, the Bobcats know the route to the title game, having made it there 3 of the last 4 years, while winning the crown two times in that span. Weak on the glass (#200 in the nation), OU makes up for its ability in games against sub .600 opponents, going 33-4 SU at press time under head coach Bill Wucznyski. That should get them out of the first round at to the ‘Q’, where anything can happen.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON BUFFALO AS A DOG

The Bulls have bagged the cash in 8 of their last 9 MAC meetings when taking points. They are also 5-1 ATS as a dog in this tourney. Hurley was adept as a dog in his playing career and the league has yet to catch up with his playbook. It all points to the points. Take ‘em if you see ‘em.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

AKRON: 9-1 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 8-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 7-1 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss…

BALL STATE: 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest, 6-2-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS with same-season double revenge, 1-4-1 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 3-11-1 ATS L15…

BOWLING GREEN: 4-1 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss, 0-9 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 2-7 ATS off SUATS loss, 2-7 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-17 ATS L22…

BUFFALO: 4-0 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 5-1 ATS dogs of 5 < pts, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-6 ATS off DD SU win…

CENTRAL MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS as favorites, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 1-5 AT as dogs < 8 pts, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss…

EASTERN MICHIGAN: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS w/same-season revenge, 1-8 ATS L9, 1-7 ATS away, 1-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss...

KENT STATE: 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS off SU fav loss, 4-1 ATS as DD favs, 4-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 0-4 ATS as dogs < 6 pts...

MIAMI,OHIO: 4-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-5 ATS favs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win…

NORTHERN ILLINOIS: 3-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses, 5-2 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-2 ATS off SU dog win, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs…

OHIO: 6-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 11-2 ATS as dogs > 1 pt, 10-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS L7, 1-5 ATS as #3 seed…

TOLEDO: 5-1 ATS L6, 6-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off SU dog win, 1-5-2 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win...

WESTERN MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 7-2 ATS L9, 0-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 0-6 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-4 ATS off SU dog win.

TECH NOTES

-- Favorites with same-season single revenge are 18-7 ATS…

-- Underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 6-1 ATS…

-- Teams with same-season double revenge are 15-31 ATS off a SU win and 1-7 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss…

-- #1 seeds are 9-1 ATS as favorites of 11 > pts…

-- #2 seed dogs are 2-8-1 ATS L11…

-- #3 seeds off a SU favorite loss are 6-0 ATS but 1-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins…*

-- #6 seed dogs are 1-7 ATS L8 games…

-- #8 seed DD dogs are 3-9 ATS…

-- #9 seeds are 5-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins.

[StarDust Bum]

C-USA Betting Notes

March 10, 2014


CONFERENCE USA

March 11-15 -- All games at the Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX (home court of UTEP)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SOUTHERN MISS, LA TECH, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, UTEP

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

With Memphis out of the way, it’s time a new #1 seed makes a name in this tourney. The Tigers had captured the crown 7 of the last 8 years in the C-USA tourney before bolting for the new American Athletic Conference. A lot of which went hand-in-hand with the fact the top seed in this tourney has made it to the title game 9 of the last 10 years, while cutting down the nets 10 of the last 13 years. That being the case, the dilemma is that no less than four teams were tied atop the conference standings at 12-3 heading to press time. The good news is the top 4 seeds in this tourney receive double byes, with seeds 5-9 getting a single bye.

From an all-important RPI standpoint, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI sits atop the pack in the C-USA. The Golden Eagles were the runner-up in this tourney last year and won 27 games before losing in the quarterfinals of the NIT last season. Head coach Donnie Tyndall is 52-15 SU with USM at press time, including 46-5 versus .666 or less opponents, and is the team to beat.

LOUISIANA TECH was the preseason favorite to win the conference and did not disappoint after transferring in from the WAC. Like Southern Miss, the Bulldogs dominated sub .666 or less opponents this season (20-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at press time) and should arrive in a nasty mood after having been bounced in the first round of the WAC tourney as a 12.5-point, #1 seed last year.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE, another ‘new kid on the block’ in the conference this year, holds down the 3rd best RPI ranking in the loop. The Blue Raiders won the Sun Belt last season before eventually losing in the first round of the Big Dance. MTSU’s strength is on the glass where they outrebound foes a net +4.3 RPG this season after finishing +5.7 last year.

UTEP plays host to the tourney, owning the #72 RPI rating at press time, so they will need to make some noise in order to get an invite. A 152-38 SU record at the Don Haskins Center, including 10-3-1 ATS when getting points, should serve them well.

THE SLEEPER: TULSA

The Hurricane started slow (0-4 SU) but closed like their namesake with 7 straight wins (8-1 ATS) at press time. We’re now located in South Florida and if there is one thing we’ve learned since residing in this state, it’s that you don’t step in front of a hurricane at full force.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS IN GAME ONE

The Eagles have been golden in conference tourney lid-lifters (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS), which ties directly into their aforementioned dominance against .666 or less opposition.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

CHARLOTTE: 4-0 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-9 ATS off SU loss, 1-5 ATS L6, 3-8 ATS w/revenge

EAST CAROLINA: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 1-6 ATS off SU loss, 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU win

FLORIDA ATLANTIC: 0-4 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 0-3 ATS off SU/ATS win, 1-5 ATS as favs, 1-3 ATS off DD ATS loss

LOUISIANA TECH: 4-0 ATS as dogs < 7 pts, 4-1 ATS off SU dog win, 0-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

MARSHALL: 2-0 ATS as dogs off SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 0-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-4 ATS favs < 7 pts

MIDDLE TENNESSEE: 4-1 ATS as dogs > 3 pts, 1-7-1 ATS L9, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-4 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss

NORTH TEXAS: 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-1 ATS off 3+ SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS as dogs 3 < pts, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

OLD DOMINION: 3-0 ATS as dogs of BB SU/ATS wins, 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-2 ATS w/same-season single revenge

RICE: 5-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 6-1-1 ATS dogs 5 > pts, 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest

SOUTHERN MISS: 5-1 ATS favs off BB SU wins, 1-6 ATS off SU dog win, 1-6-1 dogs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO: 1st year in tourney

TULANE: 4-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss, 3-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 0-5 ATS L5, 1-4 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins

TULSA: 3-0 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

UAB: 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-0 ATS as dogs off DD SU win, 1-11 ATS L12 games, 1-9 ATS favs 6 < pts…

UTEP: 5-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 3-0 ATS as DD favs, 8-2 ATS favs vs opp off SU win. 1-3 ATS as dogs vs opp off SU win.

TECH NOTES:

-- Teams off a DD SU win are 13-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS loss…

-- Teams off BB SU/ATS losses are 11-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge…

-- Favorites w/revenge are 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win…

-- Underdogs off BB SU losses are 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss…

-- #2 seeds are 0-5-1 ATS w/revenge…

-- #3 seeds are 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…

-- #4 seeds are 1-5 ATS as DD dogs…

-- #7 seeds are 0-4 ATS L4 but 8-2-1 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins…

-- #9 seeds are 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

Sleeper Squads

March 10, 2014


It's the best week of the year for college basketball betting fans, as every team in every conference has a shot to play its way into the NCAA tournament. There are always clubs that come out of nowhere to steal bids, and we've got a look at some of the ones that can do some damage and blow up some bubbles in the process.

Rhode Island Rams (14-17, 16-11 ATS) – The Rams have covered their last five games, and they have gone 3-2 SU in those duels. Their only losses both came by three points to UMass and St. Joe's. Not only are the Minutemen up first, but next in line is GW. Both of those teams have already locked up their spot to the dance. With Rhode Island playing so well, the A-10 Tournament could get turned upside down, but this isn't the only team we think could prove to be problematic in Brooklyn.

La Salle Explorers (15-15, 7-19-1 ATS) – We know. That ATS record was atrocious this season for La Salle. However, last season, this team went from the First Four to the Sweet 16, and there are a lot of holdovers from that club. In fact, only Ramon Galloway is gone. Steve Zack is a better big man now, and the rest of the numbers are falling in line too, but the bottom line is that the A-10 has been a horror to try to win games in. Don't discount the possibility that, while Rhode Island is doing damage on one side of the bracket, La Salle might be blowing up the other, especially with as suspect as some of the teams at the top of the A-10 have been playing of late.

Northern Illinois Huskies (14-16, 16-11-1 ATS) - The Huskies served notice to the rest of the MAC when they upset Toledo a few weeks ago. They'll be favored against lowly Bowling Green to start off the MAC Tournament, and then it's off to a game with Buffalo, a very winnable fixture for a team which loves to take the air out of the basketball. The best part about the Huskies? They're 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games entering this tourney. Even if NIU doesn't win it, we know we don't want to fade it on the college basketball betting lines.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-11, 19-10 ATS) – Why? Do you have a better idea who is winning the Big Ten Tournament? The Cornhuskers are the fourth seed in this tournament, but they'll be dogs in every game which they play for sure. However, they already have upsets of Wisconsin and Michigan State of late, and they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Why “Nebrasketball” you ask? Why not?!

Alabama Crimson Tide (13-18, 11-14-3 ATS) – Florida is winning the SEC. We know this. There's a reason that the team didn't lose a conference game all season long. But if you look at the rest of the draw Alabama is set to face, and you realize that Trevor Releford is Alabama's answer to the crazy stuff which Marshall Henderson does for Ole Miss, you'll realize that maybe we're not so crazy. LSU seems destined to crash out of this tournament in a hurry, and up next would be Kentucky, who could beat Bama by 30 or lose by 20. The Tide’s covered their last three (including nearly beating Kentucky), and they at least have to think they can make it to the weekend at the Georgia Dome whether anyone else believes in them or not.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Monday, March 10

WM & MARY: 16-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams

DELAWARE: 22-45 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game

ST MARYS-CA: 1-7 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4

GONZAGA: 7-1 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days

SAN FRANCISCO: 21-11 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

BYU: 3-11 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games

BALL ST: 3-13 ATS after a game with 9 or less assists

OHIO U: 13-4 ATS in first round tournament games

KENT ST: 15-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick

MIAMI OHIO: 4-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick

C MICHIGAN: 15-30 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

E MICHIGAN: 32-19 ATS after a conference game

BOWLING GREEN: 17-38 ATS in March games

N ILLINOIS: 11-4 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, March 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Maryland - E. Shore - 6:30 PM ET Norfolk State -11 500
Norfolk State -

Ball St. - 7:00 PM ET Ohio -13.5 500 *****
Ohio -

Kent St. - 7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) -1.5 500 *****
Miami (OH) -

Delaware - 7:00 PM ET William & Mary +4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
William & Mary -

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Manhattan -2 500 *****
Iona -

Denver - 7:00 PM ET North Dakota State -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
North Dakota State -

Central Michigan - 7:30 PM ET Central Michigan +12 500
Eastern Michigan -

Bowling Green - 8:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Northern Illinois -

South Carolina State - 9:00 PM ET Savannah State -8 500
Savannah State -

St. Mary's - 9:00 PM ET St. Mary's +7 500 *****
Gonzaga -

Western Carolina - 9:00 PM ET Wofford -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Wofford -

South Dakota State - 9:30 PM ET South Dakota State -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
IUPU - Ft. Wayne -

San Francisco - 11:30 PM ET San Francisco +5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Brigham Young -