The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[tech fan]

nice job going 5-0 on the 7:00 games. Really needed a good night THANKS

[StarDust Bum]

That's awesome Tech........am happy for all on board...............

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Kansas big guy Joel Embiid is out for the next two weekends, meaning the Jayhawks are going to be much weaker defensively.

-- 76ers lost their 17th straight game 123-110 at New York but covered; they're 4-13 vs spread during this epic losing streak.

-- Delaware 75, Wm Mary 74-- Blue Hens scored last seven points, broke the Tribe's heart. Wm & Mary has never played in NCAA tournament.

-- Wofford 56, Western Carolina 53-- Terriers make NCAAs for third time in last five years.

-- Manhattan 71, Iona 68-- Jaspers win first MAAC title in a decade.

-- NFL free agency starts at 4pm today.

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Early Championship Week primer.....

13) Louisville is in midst of 3-year stretch where they’ll play in three leagues (Big East/AAC/ACC). If they win AAC tourney in Memphis this week, they could win ACC tourney next year and win three different conference tournaments in three years. Doubt that has happened before.

12) Weber State is top seed in Big Sky despite a 14-6 record; can’t remember six losses ever getting a top seed, though its probably happened somewhere. Big Sky tournament looks like it is more wide open than most years, when Weber/Montana have dominated things.

11) Four teams tied for first in Conference USA; the tournament host, UTEP, finished 5th, meaning the team that drew the short straw in the three-way tie (Southern Miss) probably has a tough road game in its first quarter-final. Miners have to win a game to play USM.

10) UCLA is 2-3 in its last five games, lost by 18 at Washington State, suspended its two best players for a game and appear to be a ship taking on water. It bears repeating that in his career, Steve Alford hasn’t always been the best March coach, getting upset in a 3-14 game in NCAA tournament, and losing to Harvard last year.

9) Syracuse got Jerami Grant back Sunday and won by 16 at Florida State, so his presence could’ve healed whatever it was (lack of scoring) that ailed them. We’ll learn more this weekend.

8) Virginia had eight days off after its Senior Night win over Syracuse, an emotional game, then they laid an egg at Maryland. Cavaliers need to win a game in ACC tourney—it’s a red flag to go into the tournament off two straight losses.

7) Providence-St John’s will be an interesting first round game in the Big East. Red Storm is playing at home; there’s a chance this could amount to a play-in game. If Friars were to win a game or two in the tournament, watching Bryce Cotton play 40 minutes a game 2-3 days in a row will be intriguing.

6) Kentucky—Young players, big spotlight; they’re 3-4 in last seven games at a place that demands more, whether its realistic or not.

5) Cal-Irvine—Anteaters have never been to NCAAs, but are #1 seed in Big West; this is their time. That brings some pressure with it. UCSB, Long Beach, Hawai’I will be their main challengers in Anaheim.

4) San Diego State-New Mexico are both in NCAAs, so if someone other than those two wins the Mountain West, they’re bursting someone’s bubble. Aztecs rallied back from 16 down to beat New Mexico Saturday; a third game for the MW title late Saturday would be fun.

3) Meanwhile a couple miles away at Orleans Arena, if Utah Valley-New Mexico State hook up in the WAC final, they might need extra security, seeing as the two teams nearly had a riot after their game couple weeks ago. If nothing else, have to see if the Utah Valley coach breaks out that neon green sports jacket again; I’m not sure if Craig Sager would even wear it, that’s how bright it is.

2) Buffalo—Bulls fired Reggie Witherspoon last year because he never made NCAAs; he won a decent amount of games, just not enough in March. Now Bobby Hurley has Buffalo as a high seed in the MAC; can he do what Witherspoon couldn’t and take the Bulls dancing in his first year as coach?

1) Atlantic 13 moved their tournament to Brooklyn; they have lot of good teams, but St Joe’s/Saint Louis have struggled of late, Richmond lost its PG, which leaves fast-paced VCU/UMass as top contenders. This league is going to have several teams in the Field of 68, should be a good tournament at the Barclays’ Center.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 11

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PENNSYLVANIA (8 - 19) at PRINCETON (19 - 8) - 3/11/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENNSYLVANIA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a conference game this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
PENNSYLVANIA is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
PRINCETON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-2 against the spread versus PRINCETON over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 3-2 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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RICE (7 - 22) vs. N TEXAS (15 - 15) - 3/11/2014, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
RICE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
RICE is 1-0 against the spread versus N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
RICE is 1-0 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MARSHALL (10 - 21) vs. FLA ATLANTIC (10 - 21) - 3/11/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 67-94 ATS (-36.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
MARSHALL is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MARSHALL is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TX-SAN ANTONIO (8 - 21) vs. E CAROLINA (16 - 15) - 3/11/2014, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) in all games this season.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
E CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 116-164 ATS (-64.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 108-155 ATS (-62.5 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 70-106 ATS (-46.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus TX-SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against TX-SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WI-MILWAUKEE (20 - 13) at WRIGHT ST (20 - 13) - 3/11/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WRIGHT ST is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WRIGHT ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
WRIGHT ST is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 168-126 ATS (+29.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 162-124 ATS (+25.6 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WRIGHT ST is 3-3 against the spread versus WI-MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
WRIGHT ST is 4-2 straight up against WI-MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N CAROLINA A&T (9 - 22) vs. HOWARD (7 - 24) - 3/11/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA A&T is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOWARD is 1-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA A&T over the last 3 seasons
HOWARD is 2-2 straight up against N CAROLINA A&T over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BETHUNE-COOKMAN (7 - 24) vs. COPPIN ST (10 - 19) - 3/11/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BETHUNE-COOKMAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
COPPIN ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
COPPIN ST is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
COPPIN ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BETHUNE-COOKMAN is 1-0 against the spread versus COPPIN ST over the last 3 seasons
BETHUNE-COOKMAN is 2-1 straight up against COPPIN ST over the last 3 seasons

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DELAWARE ST (9 - 20) vs. FLORIDA A&M (13 - 17) - 3/11/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA A&M is 1-0 against the spread versus DELAWARE ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA A&M is 2-2 straight up against DELAWARE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MOUNT ST MARYS (15 - 16) at ROBERT MORRIS (21 - 12) - 3/11/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MOUNT ST MARYS is 1-0 against the spread versus ROBERT MORRIS over the last 3 seasons
ROBERT MORRIS is 4-1 straight up against MOUNT ST MARYS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MISS VALLEY ST (9 - 22) vs. PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (8 - 21) - 3/11/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISS VALLEY ST is 5-1 straight up against PRAIRIE VIEW A&M over the last 3 seasons

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GRAMBLING (4 - 23) vs. JACKSON ST (11 - 19) - 3/11/2014, 1:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSON ST is 6-0 straight up against GRAMBLING over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 11

Penn (+8.5) upset Princeton 77-74 at home Jan 11, just its second win in last 10 series games; Quakers were +17 on boards that night, but they've lost last four visits here, by 12-3-10-12 points, are 1-5 on Ivy road, with losses by 9-30-15-7-19 points. Princeton won four in row, seven of last nine games; only two of those seven wins were by more than 11 points. Penn is making an anemic 25.6% of its 3's in conference play.

C-USA tournament (El Paso)
Rice (+1.5) jumped out to 25-8 lead, held off North Texas 75-70 Feb 6 in teams' only meeting this year, but they're 0-7 since, coming within 10 points in only two of seven games. Owls are 21-91 in league games last seven years, 2-5 in this tournament, losing first game last two years by 2-5 points. UNT is 4-7 in its last 11 games, with three of four wins by exactly two points. 11 of last 13 Rice games stayed under total.

Florida Atlantic (+4) won 65-57 at Marshall Feb 1, making 20-29 (69%) inside arc, but Owls lost their last six games overall, are 0-5 in last five conference tourneys- they fired their coach couple weeks ago. Marshall lost seven of its last nine games, going 2-6 on C-USA road. Seven of last nine Marshall games stayed under total; six of last nine FAU games went over. When Marshall coach gets fired (someday) he can thank DeAndre Kane for transferring from marshall to Iowa State.

East Carolina beat Tex-San Antonio 81-71 (-9) at home Feb 8, in teams' first C-USA meeting, outscoring Roadrunners 29-15 on foul line in game that UTSA made closer in garbage time. Home team won last eight ECU games- they're 1-7 on C-USA road, with only win at UAB. Pirates won first tourney game two of last three years, after going 0-5 previous five tourneys. Nine of last ten East Carolina games stayed under total.

Horizon tourney (Dayton)
Home side won both Milwaukee-Wright State games this year; Panthers (+7) lost 73-57 here Jan 21, then beat Wright 68-64 (+2) at home nine days later. Panthers lost last nine visits here, with three of last four by 16+ points. Wright won its last six games, four by 7 or less points; they held last five opponents to 63 or less points- they lost in finals of this event twice in last four years. Milwaukee's last four tourney losses are all by 9+ points- their last tourney title was 2006.

Summit tourney (Sioux Falls, SD)
Home side won both Fort Wayne-North Dakota State games this year; Mastadons (+7) won 82-71 at home Jan 9, then lost 69-58 (+13) Feb 9. Bison won four of last six series games, overall. Fort Wayne beat home team last night, but used three subs 23+ minutes in much tougher game than Bison had with Denver. FW won five in row, 18 of last 23 games; they lost by hoop at Illinois. Bison won last eight games- they won at Notre Dame when Jerian Grant was still playing for Irish.

WCC tourney (Las Vegas)
Gonzaga is 19-3 in last 22 WCC tourney games; they're in final for 14th year in row. Zags beat BYU 84-69 (-8.5) Jan 25, then lost 73-65 (+3) in Provo Feb 20, just second win for Cougars vs Gonzaga in seven WCC meetings. BYU is in first final, in its third year in league; they had much tougher game in semis last night, beating USF in OT, using four starters 34:00+; Haws/Collinsworth played 40+. David Stockton scored 21 last night, unusually good production for the senior guard.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 11

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Trend Report
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5:30 PM
RICE vs. NORTH TEXAS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Texas's last 6 games
North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:00 PM
WISC-MILWAUKEE vs. WRIGHT STATE
Wisc-Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Wisc-Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Wright State
Wright State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Wright State's last 12 games

8:00 PM
MARSHALL vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
No trends available
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida Atlantic's last 9 games

8:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA vs. PRINCETON
Pennsylvania is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pennsylvania is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Princeton
Princeton is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Pennsylvania
Princeton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pennsylvania

10:30 PM
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO vs. EAST CAROLINA
No trends available
East Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
East Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 11

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AAC tournament betting cheat sheet: Cardinals kings of the new conference?
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The inaugural American Athletic Conference tournament tips off Wednesday, and if the departed Big East members have anything to say about it, the first AAC tournament could be a wild ride ripe with betting value.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the teams to watch in the AAC tournament at FedExForum in Memphis this week:

Favorites

Louisville Cardinals - The defending national champs closed out the year with a statement win at SMU and a blowout over UConn at home. Louisville ranks in the Top 20 in both offense (81.8 ppg) and defense (61.8) and has plenty of postseason experience on its roster.

Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati is one of the stingiest teams in the country, allowing only 58.4 points per game. The Bearcats clamped down on AAC competition but sometimes found themselves short on firepower when they need a bucket. Cincinnati gets 30 percent of its offense from Sean Kilpatrick, which is dangerous should the Bearcats talent guard wear down in the tournament.


Live Underdog

Memphis Tigers – Memphis struggled with consistency all season but showed just how good it can be with a strong push at the end of conference play. The Tigers’ talented roster took wins over Louisville and SMU down the stretch and proved it could run with the country’s elite in non-conference games against Oklahoma State, Florida and Gonzaga. The big chink in Memphis’ armor is a less-than-impressive road record.


Best ATS team

SMU Mustangs – The Mustangs (17-10 ATS), transplanted in the AAC from the C-USA, stunned basketball bettors in conference play. Southern Methodist reeled off seven straight covers and went on an 11-1 ATS streak during AAC play before the market caught up to the Pony Express. The Mustangs fell flat on their faces to end conference play with back-to-back loss to Louisville and Memphis that damaged their tournament seeding.


Best Over/Under

Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati’s lock-down defense and lackluster scoring punch is the perfect recipe for Under bettors (7-18 O/U). The Bearcats held 11 of their 17 conference opponents to under 60 points while totaling less than 70 points for in 12 of their AAC clashes. However, the market is adjusting to Cincy’s Under run with the final two games of the schedule playing Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 11

ATS Betting Trends

MARSHALL: 1-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record

PRINCETON: 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread

COPPIN ST: 0-8 ATS as a favorite

BETHUNE-COOKMAN: 8-0 ATS after playing a home game

TX-SAN ANTONIO: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders

E CAROLINA: 1-8 ATS after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers

Over/Under Betting Trends

RICE: 21-5 UNDER after scoring 50 points or less

PENNSYLVANIA: 11-0 UNDER in road games after a conference game

E CAROLINA: 13-2 UNDER after a conference game

MARSHALL: 8-0 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Mt. St. Mary's at Robert Morris
The Mountaineers play on the road in the Northeast Conference final tonight against a Robert Morris team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Mt. St. Mary's is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Robert Morris favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Mt. St. Mary's (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, MARCH 11

Game 565-566: Pennsylvania at Princeton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 44.025; Princeton 62.363
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 14
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-14)

Game 567-568: Rice vs. North Texas (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 44.824; North Texas 48.515
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: North Texas by 6
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6)

Game 569-570: Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 50.022; Florida Atlantic 53.157
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 3
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 1
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-1)

Game 571-572: TX-San Antonio vs. East Carolina (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 47.513; East Carolina 49.571
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 2
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+5 1/2)

Game 573-574: WI-Milwaukee vs. Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 55.501; Wright State 57.062
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 1 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Wright State by 6; 129
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+6); Over

Game 575-576: BYU vs. Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.497; Gonzaga 70.582
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 7; 141
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 4; 148
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-4); Under

Game 577-578: IPFW vs. North Dakota State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 51.898; North Dakota State 64.982
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 13; 141
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 8; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-8); Under

Game 581-582: North Carolina A&T vs. Howard (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 38.860; Howard 35.134
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T by 1
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-1)

Game 583-584: Bethune-Cookman vs. Coppin State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 36.598; Coppin State 42.985
Dunkel Line: Coppin State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Coppin State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coppin State (-4 1/2)

Game 585-586: Delaware State vs. Florida A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware State 41.317; Florida A&M 45.477
Dunkel Line: Florida A&M by 4
Vegas Line: Florida A&M by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida A&M (-1 1/2)

Game 587-588: Mt. St. Mary's at Robert Morris (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mt. St. Mary's 51.777; Robert Morris 54.323
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 2 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Robert Morris by 5 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Mt. St. Mary's (+5 1/2); Under

Game 589-590: Prairie View A&M vs. Mississippi Valley State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 33.218; Mississippi Valley State 36.784
Dunkel Line: Mississippi Valley State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi Valley State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi Valley State (-1)

Game 591-592: Grambling State vs. Jackson State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Grambling 31.303; Jackson State 43.740
Dunkel Line: Jackson State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Jackson State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (-10)

[StarDust Bum]

WCC - Gonzaga vs. BYU

March 11, 2014


For the 17th consecutive season, Gonzaga (27-6 straight up, 16-14-1 against the spread) is in tonight's WCC Tournament finals after advancing with last night's easy win over Saint Mary's. Waiting for the Bulldogs will be BYU, which is making its debut appearance in the league's tournament finals.

As of early this afternoon, most books had Mark Few's team installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 147.5. Gamblers can back BYU (23-10 SU, 13-17 ATS) on the money line for a +165 return (risk $100 to win $165). For first-half wagers, Gonzaga is a two-point 'chalk.'

Gonzaga beat the Gaels in blowout fashion for a third time this year at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas last night. The Bulldogs won by a 70-54 count as 6.5-point favorites, while the 124 combined points stayed 'under' the 133.5-point total.

David Stockton was the catalyst with 21 points, six rebounds and four assists without a turnover. Gary Bell Jr. added 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field, while Sam Dower finished with 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots.

Dave Rose's team had to go deep into the night to dispose of San Francisco. BYU needed overtime to sneak past the Dons in a 79-77 triumph. However, USC took the cash as 5.5-point underdogs. Bettors on the 'over' got an extremely fortunate winner when the 156 combined points slipped 'over' the 155-point tally.

Tyler Haws suffered through a 5-of-19 shooting night from the field, but he made all 14 of his free-throw attempts to take game-high scoring honors with 24 points. Haws, who averages a team-best 23.3 points per game, logged 41 minutes of playing time.

Kyle Collinsworth added 18 points and 12 rebounds in 42 minutes of action. Anson Winder chipped in with 15 points for the Cougars, who got a double-double from freshman center Eric Mika (11 points and 10 boards).

BYU has been an underdog six times, compiling a 3-3 spread record with two outright victories at Stanford and at Saint Mary's. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has been a single-digit favorite on 13 occasions, going 9-4 ATS.

The 'under' is 16-13 overall for BYU, but it has seen the 'over' cash at a 10-5 clip in its last 15 outings. The 'under' is 18-13 overall for Gonzaga.

These teams split a pair of regular-season meetings, with the home team winning and covering the number in each encounter.

In Spokane on Jan. 25, Gonzaga won an 84-69 decision as a nine-point home 'chalk.' The 153 combined points dipped 'under' the 158-point total. Kevin Pangos led the winners by scoring 24 points, grabbing four rebounds and dishing out seven assists without committing a turnover. Hawks had a team-high 23 points in the losing effort.

The rematch in Provo went to BYU by a 73-65 score, with the Cougars getting the money as three-point home favorites. The 138 combined points remained 'under' the 151.5-point mark. Winder scored a game-high 17 points, while Matt Carlino came off the bench to add 15 points, six assists and three steals.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

MWC Betting Notes

March 10, 2014


MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

March 12-15 -- All games at the Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV (home court of UNLV)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: NEW MEXICO, SAN DIEGO STATE, UNLV, BOISE STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Last year the ever-improving Mountain West sent five teams to the Big Dance. As a result, it matched the Big 10, the Big 12 and the Big East as the only conferences to send at least half of its members to the NCAA tournament. NEW MEXICO returns as the two-time defending champion. The Lobos were the preseason pick to win the conference and bring the nation’s #11 ranked team in Defensive Field Goal Percentage into this tourney. A 6-0 SUATS mark the last two seasons makes them the team to beat.

Steve Fisher’s SAN DIEGO STATE squad has been a member of the MWC each of its 15 years of existence and are 9-2 SU in this tournament the last four years. Like New Mexico, the Aztecs play sticky ‘D’ (#12 Defensive Field Goal Percentage). The razor-thin edge separating the two best teams in the league comes down to altitude. The Lobos play in it while the Aztecs are a sea-level team who are just 6-12 SUATS in their last eighteen games at altitude.

UNLV hosts the tourney for the 8th straight year. The up-and-down Rebels will rely on the power play of former UConn transfer Roscoe Smith, their leading scorer and rebounder. Like New Mexico and San Diego State, UNLV plays a salty brand of defense as well (#25 Defensive Field Goal Percentage).

BOISE STATE has gone one-and-out in its first two years in the MWC tourney. Five returning starters from last year’s 21-win unit will be dead serious about making amends. A 12-2 SU mark at press time versus sub .590 opponents overrides the Broncos’ ridiculous 5-12 ATS conference spread record this campaign.

THE SLEEPER: WYOMING

The ‘Mountain’ is down considerably this season as opposed to last, and as a result nary a ‘sleeper’ team stands out. The Cowboys come closest to filling the bill, sporting a nifty 7-1 ATS mark in games versus .650 or greater opponents this season. A 4-1 ATS dog log in this event against #3 or lower seeds means we actually may be calling their name.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON THE NO. 2 SEED IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Like Avis, apparently No. 2 tries harder when it comes to cutting down the nets in this tourney. That’s confirmed by the fact that these seeds are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS all-time in MWC title tilts.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

AIR FORCE: 3-0 ATS off DD ATS win, 3-0 ATS w/revenge off SU win, 5-1 ATS as dogs 12 < pts, 0-4 ATS as favs, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-14 SU all-time

BOISE ST: 3-1 ATS vs opp of BB SU losses, 5-2 ATS as pick or dogs 4 < pts, 0-5 ATS vs #2 seed, 2-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge

COLORADO ST: 5-1 ATS as #6-7 seed, 4-1 ATS as dogs vs opp off SUATS win, 1-5 ATS dogs < 4 pts, 1-4 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-3 ATS L4 as favs

FRESNO ST: 8-1 ATS off SU loss, 7-2 ATS w/revenge, 3-8 ATS off DD ATS win, 2-9 ATS off SU conference tourney win

NEVADA: 7-1 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-6-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-5 ATS L5 as dogs, 1-6 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-6-1 ATS vs #3 seed or higher

NEW MEXICO: 5-0 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 3-0 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 6-1 ATS off DD SU win, 6-1-1 ATS dogs < 7 pts. 1-4 ATS vs #6 or higher seed

SAN DIEGO ST: 6-1 SUATS dogs 4 < pts, 3-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 0-3 ATS vs #3 seed, 1-7 ATS favs > 4 pts. 1-4 ATS off SUATS win vs opp w/revenge

UNLV: 5-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 5-1-1 ATS as pick or dogs, 8-3 ATS 2nd game, 5-2 ATS off DD SU win vs opp w/revenge, 0-4 ATS L4 as favs < 10 pts, 0-3 ATS as DD favs vs opp off BB SU losses

UTAH ST: 6-1 ATS as dogs off SU win, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS as favs < 7 pts, 1-3 ATS off BB SU losses

WYOMING: 4-0 ATS as #7 seed, 3-1 ATS as dogs off ATS loss, 1-5 ATS L6 as favs, 2-5 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

TECH NOTES:

-- Dogs off BB SU losses are 18-8 ATS and 8-2 ATS as DD dogs

-- Teams w/revenge are 43-21-2 ATS and 10-2 ATS off 3+ SUATS losses

-- Favorites off a DD SU loss are 1-5 ATS

-- Teams off BB SUATS wins are 3-7 ATS vs opp off SU loss

-- #1 seeds are 9-22 ATS and 3-12 ATS off SUATS win

-- #2 seeds are 10-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS win

-- #3 seeds are 7-16-1 ATS and 1-9 ATS vs opp off SU loss

-- #4 seeds w/revenge are 5-0-2 ATS

-- #7 seeds are 7-1 ATS as dogs 10 < pts

[StarDust Bum]

MAC Betting Notes

March 9, 2014


MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

March 10, 12-15 (Opening Round games at campus sites of higher seeds...Remaining games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: TOLEDO, BUFFALO, WESTERN MICHIGAN, AKRON

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Like the Horizon League, and in hopes of ensuring a better chance to land an at-large bid, the MAC has re-arranged its postseason tournament where the division winners earn byes into the semis and the No. 3-4 seeds start in the quarters. That makes seeding the Final Four an easy task. The question is who wins?

What we know for sure is that it’s been 10 years since a West Division team has cut down the nets in this tourney. And the team from the West with the best chance is TOLEDO, who returns to the party after sitting out on the sidelines with an NCAA imposed suspension for low APR grades. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS the last four games in this event and 3-0 ATS the last three when taking points. UT dominated beatable opponents (18-1 SU versus sub .500 foes) but struggled in conference wars at the pay window (4-13 ATS at press time) this season.

Like Toledo, BUFFALO was one of five teams that returned 4 starters this season and that experience paid off for first-year head coach Bobby Hurley as the Bulls are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS in conference play at press time.

WESTERN MICHIGAN was the last team from the West Division to claim the crown in 2004, and they could be in position to do so again this year. A 9-1 SU closing run at press time, along with a 5-0 ATS mark as tourney favorites, makes the Broncos legit. AKRON, the defending champion, has made the finals each of the last 7 years and is 7-1 SUATS the last three years in this tournament. A 13-2 SU mark in its last fifteen MAC tourney games certainly deems the Zips worthy here.

THE SLEEPER: OHIO U

Like Akron, the Bobcats know the route to the title game, having made it there 3 of the last 4 years, while winning the crown two times in that span. Weak on the glass (#200 in the nation), OU makes up for its ability in games against sub .600 opponents, going 33-4 SU at press time under head coach Bill Wucznyski. That should get them out of the first round at to the ‘Q’, where anything can happen.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON BUFFALO AS A DOG

The Bulls have bagged the cash in 8 of their last 9 MAC meetings when taking points. They are also 5-1 ATS as a dog in this tourney. Hurley was adept as a dog in his playing career and the league has yet to catch up with his playbook. It all points to the points. Take ‘em if you see ‘em.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

AKRON: 9-1 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 8-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 7-1 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss…

BALL STATE: 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest, 6-2-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS with same-season double revenge, 1-4-1 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 3-11-1 ATS L15…

BOWLING GREEN: 4-1 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss, 0-9 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 2-7 ATS off SUATS loss, 2-7 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-17 ATS L22…

BUFFALO: 4-0 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 5-1 ATS dogs of 5 < pts, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-6 ATS off DD SU win…

CENTRAL MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS as favorites, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 1-5 AT as dogs < 8 pts, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss…

EASTERN MICHIGAN: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS w/same-season revenge, 1-8 ATS L9, 1-7 ATS away, 1-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss...

KENT STATE: 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS off SU fav loss, 4-1 ATS as DD favs, 4-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 0-4 ATS as dogs < 6 pts...

MIAMI,OHIO: 4-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-5 ATS favs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win…

NORTHERN ILLINOIS: 3-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses, 5-2 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-2 ATS off SU dog win, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs…

OHIO: 6-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 11-2 ATS as dogs > 1 pt, 10-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS L7, 1-5 ATS as #3 seed…

TOLEDO: 5-1 ATS L6, 6-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off SU dog win, 1-5-2 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win...

WESTERN MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 7-2 ATS L9, 0-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 0-6 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-4 ATS off SU dog win.

TECH NOTES

-- Favorites with same-season single revenge are 18-7 ATS…

-- Underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 6-1 ATS…

-- Teams with same-season double revenge are 15-31 ATS off a SU win and 1-7 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss…

-- #1 seeds are 9-1 ATS as favorites of 11 > pts…

-- #2 seed dogs are 2-8-1 ATS L11…

-- #3 seeds off a SU favorite loss are 6-0 ATS but 1-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins…*

-- #6 seed dogs are 1-7 ATS L8 games…

-- #8 seed DD dogs are 3-9 ATS…

-- #9 seeds are 5-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins.

[StarDust Bum]

C-USA Betting Notes

March 10, 2014


CONFERENCE USA

March 11-15 -- All games at the Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX (home court of UTEP)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SOUTHERN MISS, LA TECH, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, UTEP

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

With Memphis out of the way, it’s time a new #1 seed makes a name in this tourney. The Tigers had captured the crown 7 of the last 8 years in the C-USA tourney before bolting for the new American Athletic Conference. A lot of which went hand-in-hand with the fact the top seed in this tourney has made it to the title game 9 of the last 10 years, while cutting down the nets 10 of the last 13 years. That being the case, the dilemma is that no less than four teams were tied atop the conference standings at 12-3 heading to press time. The good news is the top 4 seeds in this tourney receive double byes, with seeds 5-9 getting a single bye.

From an all-important RPI standpoint, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI sits atop the pack in the C-USA. The Golden Eagles were the runner-up in this tourney last year and won 27 games before losing in the quarterfinals of the NIT last season. Head coach Donnie Tyndall is 52-15 SU with USM at press time, including 46-5 versus .666 or less opponents, and is the team to beat.

LOUISIANA TECH was the preseason favorite to win the conference and did not disappoint after transferring in from the WAC. Like Southern Miss, the Bulldogs dominated sub .666 or less opponents this season (20-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at press time) and should arrive in a nasty mood after having been bounced in the first round of the WAC tourney as a 12.5-point, #1 seed last year.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE, another ‘new kid on the block’ in the conference this year, holds down the 3rd best RPI ranking in the loop. The Blue Raiders won the Sun Belt last season before eventually losing in the first round of the Big Dance. MTSU’s strength is on the glass where they outrebound foes a net +4.3 RPG this season after finishing +5.7 last year.

UTEP plays host to the tourney, owning the #72 RPI rating at press time, so they will need to make some noise in order to get an invite. A 152-38 SU record at the Don Haskins Center, including 10-3-1 ATS when getting points, should serve them well.

THE SLEEPER: TULSA

The Hurricane started slow (0-4 SU) but closed like their namesake with 7 straight wins (8-1 ATS) at press time. We’re now located in South Florida and if there is one thing we’ve learned since residing in this state, it’s that you don’t step in front of a hurricane at full force.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS IN GAME ONE

The Eagles have been golden in conference tourney lid-lifters (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS), which ties directly into their aforementioned dominance against .666 or less opposition.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

CHARLOTTE: 4-0 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-9 ATS off SU loss, 1-5 ATS L6, 3-8 ATS w/revenge

EAST CAROLINA: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 1-6 ATS off SU loss, 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU win

FLORIDA ATLANTIC: 0-4 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 0-3 ATS off SU/ATS win, 1-5 ATS as favs, 1-3 ATS off DD ATS loss

LOUISIANA TECH: 4-0 ATS as dogs < 7 pts, 4-1 ATS off SU dog win, 0-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

MARSHALL: 2-0 ATS as dogs off SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 0-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-4 ATS favs < 7 pts

MIDDLE TENNESSEE: 4-1 ATS as dogs > 3 pts, 1-7-1 ATS L9, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-4 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss

NORTH TEXAS: 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-1 ATS off 3+ SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS as dogs 3 < pts, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

OLD DOMINION: 3-0 ATS as dogs of BB SU/ATS wins, 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-2 ATS w/same-season single revenge

RICE: 5-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 6-1-1 ATS dogs 5 > pts, 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest

SOUTHERN MISS: 5-1 ATS favs off BB SU wins, 1-6 ATS off SU dog win, 1-6-1 dogs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO: 1st year in tourney

TULANE: 4-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss, 3-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 0-5 ATS L5, 1-4 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins

TULSA: 3-0 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

UAB: 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-0 ATS as dogs off DD SU win, 1-11 ATS L12 games, 1-9 ATS favs 6 < pts…

UTEP: 5-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 3-0 ATS as DD favs, 8-2 ATS favs vs opp off SU win. 1-3 ATS as dogs vs opp off SU win.

TECH NOTES:

-- Teams off a DD SU win are 13-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS loss…

-- Teams off BB SU/ATS losses are 11-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge…

-- Favorites w/revenge are 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win…

-- Underdogs off BB SU losses are 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss…

-- #2 seeds are 0-5-1 ATS w/revenge…

-- #3 seeds are 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…

-- #4 seeds are 1-5 ATS as DD dogs…

-- #7 seeds are 0-4 ATS L4 but 8-2-1 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins…

-- #9 seeds are 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

A-10 Betting Notes

March 10, 2014


ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE

March 11-16 -- All games at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SAINT LOUIS, VCU, MASSACHUSETTS, ST. JOSEPH’S

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Amazing, but true. After the passing of head coach Rick Majerus in early December 2012, the Billikens of SAINT LOUIS have been on a 50-9 SU winning tear under replacement coach Jim Crews. In fact, the former Indiana guard enters this tourney 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS in conference games with the Billikens against opponents off a win. Unless things change dramatically, Louie Louie looks to be the ‘Kingsmen’ of the conference for the 2nd year in a row as the Majerus memorial march continues.

VCU fell to St. Louis in the title game last season and would appear to be a ‘smart’ choice this go-round. The Rams were a preseason Top 20 squad for the first time in school history this year and bring an “it’s havoc you fear” approach to the game under head coach Shaka Smart. Color them dangerous.

After opening the season with wins in 16 of its first 17 games, MASSACHUSETTS proved its worth with a sterling 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark in games versus .750 or greater opposition this campaign (check Sunday season-ender versus Saint Louis). The Minutemen return 4 starters from a 21-win unit that made it to the semifinals of this tourney last year. The problem is they are just 3-21 SU and 4-19-1 as small dogs (+3 or less) under head coach Derek Kellogg.

If it seems like Phil Martelli has been around forever at ST. JOSEPH’S, it’s because he has, now in his 20th year with the Hawks. Here’s all you need to know about Joe’s in this event: under Martelli, the Hawks are 20-3 SU and 17-5-1 ATS versus .620 or less opponents; 3-15 SU and 6-11-1 ATS against all else. Phil’s kids are also 12-3 SU and 12-2-1 ATS when taking on #5 or lowers seeds in conference tourney games.

THE SLEEPER: GEORGE WASHINGTON

The Colonials returned 5 starters from a 13-win squad last year, four of whom were freshmen. Along with Indiana transfer Maurice Creek, the team’s leading scorer this season, ol’ wooden tooth topped the 20-win plateau this season and is a team no one in the tourney is anxious to meet. They proved their worth against top-notch opposition this season (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus .800 or greater foes) and will be anxious to erase the stain of three straight one-and-out performances in this tourney the last three years. Remember, they are 20-9 ATS the last twenty-nine games in this event.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON VCU WITH REVENGE

Our old standby – Temple in Game One of this event – has gone by the wayside with opening round losses the last two years. Instead, we turn to the Rams and head coach Shaka Smart who has excelled in revenge during his tenure with VCU, going 24-4 SU and 20-8 ATS. With UMass, St. Joe’s and St. Louis each lined up at press time (check season-ending Richmond and St. Bonaventure results as well) as potential payback victims, we look no further than this ‘Smart’ box.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

DAYTON: 5-1 ATS as DD favs, 10-3-1 ATS in 1st game, 1-12 ATS dogs < 8 pts, 1-6 w/revenge vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

DUQUESNE: 0-4 SUATS L4, 0-3 vs #1 seeds, 2-9 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-4 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 1-4 ATS vs #7-8 seeds, 2-6 ATS as DD dogs, 2-8 ATS off SU win, 4-11 as #4-6 seeds

FORDHAM: 0-7 ATS L7 dogs > 3 pts, 0-4 L4 ATS games, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 1-5 ATS as #5 seeds, 1-4 ATS off SUATS loss, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs

GEORGE MASON: 7-1 ATS as #3 seed, 13-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-4 ATS vs #10-11 seeds, 1-5 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS off SU dog win

GEORGE WASHINGTON: 6-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 13-2 ATS off DD SU win (7-0 ATS as favs), 5-1 ATS vs #3 seeds, 10-4 ATS w/revenge, 2-10 ATS dogs 2 to 9 pts

LA SALLE: 8-3 ATS vs #5 seed or lower, 2-10-2 ATS vs #1-5 seeds, 1-5 SUATS as #5-6 seed, 2-8-2 ATS dogs 5 > points, 2-7 ATS dogs off SU win, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win

MASSACHUSETTS: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seeds, 4-0 ATS dogs off DD SU win, 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 3-0 ATS as DD dogs, 7-2 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SU win, 9-3 ATS favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 8-3 ATS dogs 4 > pts

RHODE ISLAND: 6-1 SUATS vs #4-5 seeds, 1-8 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 2-8 ATS vs #6 seed or lower

RICHMOND: 4-0-1 ATS off SU dog win, 7-2 ATS as favs, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-6 ATS dogs > 4 pts

ST. BONAVENTURE: 5-0 ATS favs off SU loss, 6-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-5 ATS dogs vs opp off SU dog win

ST. JOSEPH’S: 6-0 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 9-1 ATS vs #9 seed or lower, 7-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 6-2 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 14-3-1 ATS favs 3 > pts, 12-3 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 2-8 ATS dogs vs opp off DD SU win

ST. LOUIS: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS off SU dog win, 1-5 ATS dogs 5 < pts... VCU: 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-5 ATS off DD ATS win, 2-9 ATS as dogs, 2-8 ATS as DD favs.

TECH NOTES:

-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS losses

-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 10-3 ATS off BB SU losses

-- DD favorites are 2-5 ATS off a DD ATS win

-- Underdogs are 12-30-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge

-- Underdogs are 19-36-1 ATS off a SU dog win

-- #1 seeds are 0-4 ATS as dogs

-- #2 seeds are 10-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win

-- #4 seeds are 13-2 ATS L15 as favorites

-- #5 seeds are 0-6 ATS as dogs off SUATS loss

-- #7 seeds are 5-0 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 4-0 ATS off DD SU loss and 6-1 dogs vs opp off SUATS loss

[StarDust Bum]

Bracketology Notes

March 11, 2014



2014 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 03/10/14

As we head into Championship Week here is the way we see things shaping up. We will use a slightly different breakdown moving forward – teams underlined and bolded are LOCKS to be dancing; leagues starting with “ * ” are one bid leagues, and either have been decided (those that are capitalized, bolded and underlined) or are still being projected. For leagues that will have just one bid and that automatic bid has been decided I discuss their resume briefly and discuss their likely seeding.

As a final reminder on bubble teams ratings are quoted as RPI/BPI/SBPI (my Power Ratings for college basketball based on statistical performance), and records listed are vs. Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 (aggregated).

*America East: Stony Brook

American Athletic: Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis

1. SMU (23-8/12-6) – the Mustangs will likely be dancing but they did what I expected last week dropping a pair of games versus Louisville & Memphis. SMU still has solid ratings (outside my SBPI) of #44/#31/#74, 4 quality wins, 7-7 road mark and have gone 8-4 over their L12. On the weak side is a #301 OOC SOS & a top OOC win over Sam Houston State at home, along with facing 18 sub 150 RPI teams, easily the most of any likely NCAA at-large team. SMU faces Houston in Rd 1 of the AAC Tournament and will seal their bid with a win there; keep in mind these teams played twice already this year & although the Mustangs won both they were by a combined 11 points. Even with a loss there SMU is likely to earn their first NCAA Tournament bid in over 20 years, but a win would seal it up for certain.

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Atlantic 10: UMass, VCU, St. Louis, George Washington

1. St. Joseph’s, PA (21-9/11-5) – big loss for the Hawks on Sunday afternoon versus rival LaSalle leaves the Hawks with some work to be done as their ratings slipped a lot to #48/#57/#60 – leaving them on the bubble. Record splits of 2-4/4-5/7-8 are solid for the most part despite all the quality wins coming in conference play. A non-conference SOS of #149 is on the light side for sure, and their best OOC win came over current RPI #84 Boston University – not solid. Despite closing 8-4 which is strong they lost their final 2 games of the regular season leaving them squarely on the bubble, and as the #4 seed in the A10 Tournament. With Dayton being the 5 seed that could set up an essential knock-out game in the QF round between those two teams – because of that there is little to no chance both teams earn an at-large. If those two teams met in the A10 Tournament it would be their third meeting of the season, and St. Joe’s won both (by 3 at Dayton & by 26 at home) – a big reason why they sit above the Flyers in this edition although Dayton has most of the metrics in their favor.

2. Dayton (22-9/10-6) – the Flyers really closed strong going 9-1 over their L10 to put themselves right in the middle of bubble talk. Ratings of #40/#51/#40 are solid as are record splits of 2-2/4-5/10-6; OOC wins over likely WCC champ Gonzaga, likely MAAC champ Iona, and fellow bubble team California will help. They have also proved to be winners on the road going 8-4 while facing a respectable but not great OOC SOS of #82. Dayton will face the winner of #12 George Mason vs. #13 Fordham in their opening A10 Tournament game, a clear must win; next up would then be a meeting with St. Joseph’s (PA) – a huge game for both teams should it occur as the winner would remain alive, and the loser relegated to the NIT.

ACC: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

1. Florida State (18-12/9-9) – current rankings are #58/#47/#70 have dropped some of late, and certainly are not helping their cause. Record splits of 2-7/3-8/5-11 also worsened from last edition – borderline bubble territory at best. A 5-7 mark down the stretch really leaves the Noles behind the 8 ball although they have two nice OOC wins over UMass & VCU – both likely tourney teams. A 7-6 road mark is solid, and a #104 non-conference SOS isn’t awful but also isn’t great. FSU would face Virginia in their 2nd ACC Tournament game if they win their first over an underappreciated Maryland squad – that second game would be a MUST WIN to remain in contention. Minimum 2 ACC Tournament wins for the Noles to remain in the discussion. If they did beat Maryland & Virginia, and seeding held, they would avoid Duke & Syracuse in the SF round and likely face #4 UNC – manageable. Three wins they are a lock for an at-large; two they will be watching on Sunday with great interest.

*Atlantic Sun: MERCER: ranked #17 in non-SOS adjusted SBPI, #162 in adjusted SBPI (#1 in their conference). Solid offensive club. The Bears could be a dangerous ball club as we saw what Florida Gulf Coast did last season from the same conference. They lost at Texas by 3, at Oklahoma by 14 but beat Ole Miss on road by 3. Expect to see the Bears on the 13/14 line most likely, a notch higher than 15 seed FGCU last season.

Big 12: Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Big East: Villanova, Creighton

1. Xavier (19-11/10-8) – X is very close to solidifying their spot in the field, but closing 0-2 including a bad loss at Seton Hall (their 3rd sub RPI 150 loss of the season, very high number) leaves them likely on the right side of the bubble today, but open to fall to the wrong side by the end of this week. Xavier does have nice wins over two strong clubs in Cincinnati & Creighton, along with fellow bubble team Tennessee. Ratings of #47/#50/#45 have them right in the mix, as do record splits of 2-3/3-5/8-8. One more win seals their deal – an opening round loss to Marquette and things could get interesting depending on what else occurs around the country. If they somehow miss out on a bid they can look right at their 6-3 mark vs. Sub 150 RPI teams as the blame, including losing twice to Seton Hall like Georgetown did.

2. Georgetown (17-13/8-10) – the Hoyas have done so many good things this season, but also they have shot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions which will likely keep them out of the NCAA Tournament. The good for Georgetown? An SOS of #9, a non-conference SOS of #27, record splits of 3-4/5-6/7-10 including wins over Kansas State, VCU, Michigan State & Creighton. The bad? A 6-6 close to their season, a sub .500 conference mark, 3-9 on the road and 3 sub 150 RPI losses to Seton Hall twice and Northeastern. If those two Seton Hall games (a team they had dominated of late heading into this season) were wins they would probably be a projected tournament team; but that is not the case. The Hoyas will open with DePaul in the BET, then with a win meet Creighton in the QF round – a run to the BET Finals is the absolute minimum needed for the Hoyas to earn an at-large.

3. St. John’s (20-11/10-8) – the Red Storm have split with PC but lost both meetings vs. Xavier dropping them down this far. In addition to those head to head results SJU’s record splits of 1-5/1-7/6-9 leave a lot to be desired (like the two schools above them they also beat Creighton for their signature win), and ratings of #57/#46/#48 are on the fringe of the bubble. A 9-3 close to their season was extremely strong considering two of those three losses came at Creighton and at Villanova, but may have been too little too late. A minimum of 2 BET wins is necessary for St. John’s to get themselves back into the conversation.

4. Providence (20-11/10-8) – PC split their meetings with Xavier this season, and also has a win over Creighton; however their OOC has zero impressive wins leading to an OOC SOS of #215 – not good leaving them a level below Xavier. Ratings of #54/#55/#21 are just outside bubble range (excluding SBPI where they rate well), and record splits of 1-5/2-6/6-10 are nothing to write home about, as is a non-conference SOS of #214. Clearly the Friars are on the wrong side of the bubble right now; they will face St John’s in their opening 4/5 matchup Thursday afternoon which is a clear knock-out game. The winner of that game will likely face Villanova in the SF round, which would be another must win to even remain in the mix.

*Big Sky: Weber State

*Big South: COASTAL CAROLINA: ranked #111 in non-adjusted SBPI, #294 in SOS adjusted SBPI (7TH best in the Big South). The Chanticleers do not have a Top 150 RPI win all season, and are a prime candidate to take part in the “play-in” action in Dayton.

Big Ten: Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa

1. Nebraska (19-11/11-7) – no team has come on harder over the last 6 or so weeks as Nebraska, putting themselves right in the mix to earn a tournament berth. Ratings of #35/#58/#52 aren’t bad but aren’t consistent; record splits of 2-6/3-8/6-10 are identical to Minnesota, and similar to many other bubble teams from major conferences. The Huskers beat the Gophers in their only meeting of the season, further helping their case in a head to head with Minny. A road mark of 4-10 isn’t good, but a 10-2 close to their season will really strengthen their case. Because of their win Sunday over Wisconsin they drew a bye in the B10 Tournament, and a likely matchup with Ohio State looms large on Friday afternoon. Those teams split their regular season meetings, and the rubber match could be huge. With a win over OSU they will have punched their ticket; with a loss they will be sweating come Sunday.

2. Minnesota (18-12/8-10) – the Gophers are an interesting case of bubble teams. Their ratings of #49/#52/#38 are not great, but also not awful; record splits of 2-6/3-8/6-10 are more of the same, nothing wonderful but 16 games vs. Top 100 teams is pretty solid. Closing their season 5-7 doesn’t help a ton, neither does the lack of back to back wins since early January! A road record of 3-8 also isn’t solid. What is good? Residing in the top conference in America this season, and a non-conference SOS & RPI of #5 & #31 respectively. The Gophers will be the #7 seed in the B10 Tournament facing #10 Penn State in the opening round (MIN won only meeting this year 68-65 at State College). Minny must beat PSU, and a game vs. Wisconsin next shouldn’t be an issue even with a loss. But make no mistake, one more win is needed for Minnesota to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.

*Big West: UC-Santa Barbara

*Colonial: DELAWARE: the Blue Hens are rated #146 in non-SOS adjusted SBPI and slip to just #149 in adjusted SBPI (#2 in the CAA behind Drexel who was narrowly rated as a better team, but they were so close they had same power rating). Delaware has a solid RPI of #78, and although they have zero Top 100 wins they showed well a few times losing by just 4 points at Villanova (w/o top scorer Devon Saddler), by 12 at Ohio State, by 2 at Richmond and by 7 at St. Bonaventure. UD is a dangerous team in the tournament and should fall into the 13 seed neighborhood, similar to MAAC champion Manhattan.

*Conference USA: Southern Mississippi

*Horizon: Wright State

*Ivy: HARVARD: rank 9th in non-SOS adjusted SBPI, #69 in SOS adjusted SBPI. They are a strong defensive ball club that is also adequate offensively. Likely to be either a 12 or 13 seed. The Crimson lost by 8 at Colorado and by 5 at UConn early in the season with their best RPI win coming over Green Bay, who lost in the Horizon League SF round despite being the #1 seed. Harvard may be a dangerous team, especially considering their tournament experience and coaching.

*MAAC MANHATTAN: the Jaspers SBPI ranks tops in the MAAC checking in #40 non-adjusted & #104 on an adjusted basis. Manhattan faced one likely NCAA Tournament team all season losing at home to George Washington by 6 very early in the season. Their top OOC wins are at LaSalle and on a neutral floor vs. Buffalo, neither extremely impressive. Manhattan should find itself on the 13 line and could be a dangerous team to face.

*MAC: Toledo

*MEAC: North Carolina Central

*Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE: the Shockers have been the story of college basketball this year, but how good are they really coming out of the MVC? In non-adjusted SBPI they rate #6, but after adjusting for SOS they slip down to #29 – with that in mind it seems they will be over-rated seed wise as a likely #1. In OOC play they beat Tennessee by 9 at home, BYU by 13 on a neutral court, and won by 5 at St. Louis – none of those is terribly impressive considering STL’s recent fall. Coming off a Final Four run last year they will be an exciting team to follow come next week.
Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico

*Northeast: Robert Morris

*Ohio Valley: EASTERN KENTUCKY: EKY ranks #44 in non-adjusted SBPI, but slips to #192 when adjusting for SOS (#3 in the OVC behind Morehead State & Belmont). The Colonels played two NCAA Tournament teams early in the year losing at VCU by just 3, and getting blown out at Wisconsin by 25. Their top OOC win came over a weak IPFW squad. Eastern will likely end up on the 14/15 line.

Pac 12: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon

Need Wins:

1. Colorado (21-10/10-8) – ratings currently sit at #30/#45/#34 which have improved some since last edition and are amongst the best of current bubble teams; their record splits are 1-4/4-7/10-10 are also better than the typical bubble team, especially considering 4 quality wins including a signature win over Kansas (which came with Dinwiddie in the lineup), along with 20 games vs. Top 100 schools. Their top wins without Dinwiddie are against Arizona State & Stanford, fellow P12 bubble teams so they will not carry much weight. All their metrics are solid and they have no bad losses. Despite not playing their best ball of the season since losing Dinwiddie the Buffaloes are very close to lock status, and if they handle USC in the P12 Opening round they can punch their ticket.

2. Stanford (19-11/10-8) – ratings currently stand at #43/#37/#36, which are solid. Record splits of 1-4/4-8/7-11 are also solid considering 18 games vs. Top 100 squads and 4 quality wins. While the Cardinal do not have a win over Arizona they do have the best OOC resume of Pac 12 teams beating UConn and narrowly losing to Michigan leading to an OOC SOS of #60, and an overall SOS of #15. A road record of 7-6 is solid for certain. With all that said I do not believe Stanford can afford a loss vs. Washington State in the opening round of the P12 Tournament. If they did pick that win up the loser of a Stanford vs. Arizona State P12 QF matchup will be sweating come Selection Sunday.

3. Arizona State (21-10/10-8) – ASU struggled down the stretch losing 4 of 6 following their home win over rival Arizona. Ratings of #45/#35/#44 are strong, and record splits of 1-3/4-6/9-9 are suitable with 4 quality wins including the aforementioned victory over Arizona. Some cause for concern comes in their OOC action as that SOS was just #249 (by far the weakest of P12 bubble teams, and amongst the worst compared to fellow bubble teams across the country), their top win was over Marquette (a non-tourney team), and they went just 4-7 on the road. The Devils are likely a lock to be dancing but it wouldn’t hurt beating either #6 Stanford or #11 Washington State in the Pac 12 QF round Thursday. Depending on what else occurs around the country the loser of a potential Stanford/Arizona State QF could be in trouble.

4. California (19-12/10-8) – ratings currently stand at #52/#63/#67, which means they have continued to slide the last few editions – leaving them clearly as the last potential P12 team to earn an at-large bid. Record splits are 1-5/4-9/8-11 are not bad especially posting 4 quality wins including a signature over Arizona; a 5-8 road mark is not great but isn’t terrible either. What really slides Cal down to this level is a non-conference SOS of #95 & a 2-4 mark down the stretch. Their P12 Tournament will start in the QF round likely versus Colorado – which would be a must win game for them IMO (these teams met just once during regular season, the last game of the year on 3/8 and Cal prevailed by 1pt at home). The Golden Bears need a P12 SF appearance at a minimum to feel comfortable about their at-large chances as I do not believe we will see 6 Pac 12 teams earn bids to the Big Dance.

*Patriot: Boston University

SEC: Florida, Kentucky

1. Tennessee (19-11/11-7) – ratings of #46/#33/#5 continue to improve, leaving them firmly in bubble range besides the SBPI which shows them as a very solid club (which is based on their statistical performance). UT has a pair of excellent OOC wins over Xavier & Virginia (a pair of likely NCAA Tournament teams), but they have lost all 3 meetings vs. Florida & Kentucky. Record splits of 1-4/2-5/7-8 are OK but seem to be just below many other bubble teams from various conferences in both quality wins & Top 100 games. A 5-7 road mark improved down the stretch and isn’t a negative, and a record of 8-4 down the stretch is solid (as is winning their last 4 and 5 of their last 6). A non-conference SOS of #43 is solid (and miles better than fellow SEC bubble teams), along with an overall SOS of #16. UT is clearly the 3rd team in the SEC pecking order, and following a double bye to the QF round of the SEC Tournament they will face either #12 Auburn, #13 South Carolina or #5 Arkansas. I believe they need to win that QF game to lock up a bid; a loss there will leave them sweating on Sunday.

2. Arkansas (21-10/10-8) – the Razorbacks closed their regular season strong going 6-1 & 8-4 down the stretch to get back into the at-large mix. But they also have some negatives which leave them behind Tennessee & Missouri including head to head, a poor non-conference SOS of #201, a 4-8 road record & 1 bad loss to Texas A&M. On the good side for Arkansas is beating Kentucky twice, beating likely tourney team SMU and bubble team Minnesota and a 2pt home loss to Florida. The Razorbacks are the #5 seed and as explained above are in Tennessee’s pod; in order to reach a matchup with Tennessee (they lost to the Vols on road in their only matchup this season) they must beat either Auburn (who I feel is very dangerous in this tournament) or South Carolina. With ratings of #53/#39/#51 and record splits of 2-1/4-3/8-8 they are in position – that potential matchup with Tennessee looms large on Thursday should it occur.

3. Missouri (21-10/9-9) – ratings have dropped dramatically of late currently sitting at #56/#49/#89 as the Tigers closed their season going just 6-6 down the stretch. Record splits of 1-2/2-3/7-8 aren’t terrible but also do not grab your attention especially when compared to other bubble teams across the country, while a road mark of 3-7 is a definite negative compared to others. A non-conference win over UCLA will be something they can hang their hat on, but an overall non-conference SOS of #152 isn’t a strong point to their resume. Mizzou did beat Arkansas twice during the regular season which means something especially when both teams are on the bubble; and they also split with Tennessee. With just one Top 25 win which came at home on December 7th it looks like the Tigers need to beat Texas A&M in their opening round SEC Tournament game, then follow that up by beating the mighty #1 seed Florida Gators in the QF round. Seems unlikely but if they did win both games (they only faced Florida once all season losing in Gainesville by 10 on 2/4) they would be back in the mix for certain.

*Southern: WOFFORD: the Terriers won the SoCon for the first time since 2011, and will make their third NCAA Tournament appearance in the L5 years. Wofford ranks a solid 53rd in SBPI non-SOS adjusted, but that falls way down to #203 after adjusting, which will likely be one of the worst teams in the country reaching the Big Dance. Wofford does not have a Top 150 RPI win all season long, leaving them in the 16 seed range. It’s highly unlikely Wofford puts up much of a fight in the tourney, perhaps facing Florida or a play-in game in Dayton.

*Southland: Stephen F. Austin

*SWAC: Southern

*Summit: North Dakota State

*Sun Belt: Georgia State

West Coast: Gonzaga, BYU

*WAC: New Mexico State

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS & LOCKS: 58

Currently I project 58 of the 68 bids are earned.

We currently have 17 teams that are in the mix for 10 open bids.

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

Next we will show a matrix that contains all 17 bubble teams & their key metrics:

Here are the last 10 teams we project to earn a bid as of today (listed in conference alphabetical order):

SMU
Xavier
Nebraska
Minnesota
Colorado
Stanford
Arizona State
California
Tennessee
Arkansas

**KEEP IN MIND IT’S UNLIKELY ALL OF THESE TEAMS MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT BECAUSE OF UPSETS AND BID-STEALING SPOTS THAT WILL INEVITABLY OCCUR IN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS.

First 7 out (again listed in conference alphabetical order):

St. Josephs
Dayton
Florida State
Georgetown
St. Johns
Providence
Missouri

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

B12 (7)
P12 (7)
B10 (7)
AAC (5)
ACC (5)
A10 (4): despite 4 currently projected we believe the winner of a potential Dayton vs. St Joe’s QF meeting will earn a bid over a Pac 12 team (most likely Cal right now)
SEC (4)
BE (3)
WCC (2)
MWC (2)