The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, March 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Siena - 10:00 PM ET Siena +8 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Fresno St. - Under 138 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Clemson vs. SMU
The Tigers travel to Madison Square Garden for the NIT semifinals tonight and take on an SMU team that is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games. Clemson is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

TUESDAY, APRIL 1

Game 767-768: Clemson vs. SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 65.552; SMU 65.032
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1; 110
Vegas Line: SMU by 3 1/2; 119
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+3 1/2); Under

Game 769-770: Minnesota vs. Florida State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 63.822; Florida State 66.750
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3; 143
Vegas Line: Florida State by 1; 137
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-1); Over

Game 771-772: Yale at VMI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 54.154; VMI 53.156
Dunkel Line: Yale by 1; 158
Vegas Line: VMI by 2; 163
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+2); Under

Game 773-774: Pacific at Murray State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.133; Murray State 57.463
Dunkel Line: Even; 157
Vegas Line: Murray State by 6; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+6); Over


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 1

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CLEMSON (23 - 12) vs. SMU (26 - 9) - 4/1/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (23 - 13) vs. FLORIDA ST (22 - 13) - 4/1/2014, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
FLORIDA ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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YALE (18 - 13) at VMI (22 - 12) - 4/1/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 106-78 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 106-78 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
YALE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PACIFIC (18 - 15) at MURRAY ST (21 - 11) - 4/1/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MURRAY ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all home games this season.
MURRAY ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, April 5

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CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 5

Connecticut vs Florida, 6:10 ET
Connecticut: 19-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Florida: 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Kentucky vs Wisconsin, 8:50 ET
Kentucky: 17-8 UNDER as a favorite
Wisconsin: 23-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 1

Clemson won eight of last 11 games, but only wins away from home in that stretch were both vs Ga Tech; Tigers are #1 in country defending on arc, allowing 28.4% of 3's to be made. Clemson beat Temple by 14, its only game vs AAC opponent. SMU won at UConn Feb 23, looked like shoo-in for NCAAs, then lost three in row to fall off bubble- they lost by 3 to Virginia, its only game vs ACC opponent. Mustangs lost three of last four games away from home; they make 38.2% behind arc.

Yale won its last three games by total of nine points, allowing average of 67.7 ppg. VMI scored 82+ points in 11 of its last 12 wins; they scored 111-106-92 points in first three games of this tournament- they scored 66 ppg in their last four losses. Bulldogs won six of last eight true road tilts. Keydets are 10-6 out of conference; they've won five of their last six at home, 12 of last 15 games overall.

Pacific allowed 62.3 ppg in winning first three games in this tourney; it had lost five of last six games coming in. Tigers are in top 20 in country in experience, but this is their first trip east of Rockies this year, Murray State won 16 of last 20 games; they lost by 25 at St Mary's of WCC in November. Racers' last three losses are all by 3 points. Murray makes 37.6% from arc (#56); they've won their last thirteen home games.

Minnesota (-3.5) beat Florida State 71-61 at home Dec 3, going 28-38 on foul line with +11 (17-6) turnover ratio; Gophers shot just 29.7% inside arc, with nine shots blocked by Seminoles. FSU won seven of last nine games, with four of last five wins by 5 or less points- they've won four of last five games away from home. Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games away from home; they're 4-9 this season against teams in top 50. Florida State dominates inside; they're 4th-tallest team in America.




NCAAB

Tuesday, April 1

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

7:00 PM
YALE vs. VMI
Yale is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
No trends available

9:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. MURRAY STATE
Pacific is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pacific's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Murray State's last 12 games at home
Murray State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida State's last 10 games
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games


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NCAAB

Tuesday, April 1

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NIT semifinals betting cheat sheet
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Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs (-3, 119)

Clemson's K.J. McDaniels scored 16 points and DeMarcus Harrison poured in 14 of his 16 in the second half to spark the comeback victory over Belmont. McDaniels continues to deliver for the Tigers, leading them in scoring (17.2), rebounding (7.1), blocks (2.8) and steals (1.1). Clemson is shooting 74.2 percent from the free-throw line and has gone 34-for-42 from the charity stripe in this tournament.

Nic Moore, who tops the team in scoring (13.5), knocked down the game-winning 3-pointer with 6.5 seconds left to lift the Mustangs into the semifinals. Markus Kennedy had one of his best all-around games, recording 19 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and two steals versus California. SMU's stifling defense has played a major role in the program's revival, holding 23 of 35 opponents under 40 percent shooting from the floor.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* SMU is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games.
* Under is 8-2 in SMU's last 10 games overall.


Florida State Seminoles vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1.5, 136)

Minnesota's Austin Hollins poured in a career-high 32 points to go with four assists and three steals while going 10-of-10 from the free-throw line in the win over Southern Miss. The Golden Gophers dished out a season-best 23 assists versus the Golden Eagles, with Andre Hollins providing a game-high seven. Free-throw shooting has played an integral role in Minnesota's recent run as it has gone 70-of-85 from the line in the tournament.

The top-seeded Seminoles aim to avenge a 71-61 defeat to Minnesota this season in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Aaron Thomas scored 14 of his team-high 21 points in the final frame and secured nine rebounds in the victory over Louisiana Tech. Okaro White, who was born in Brooklyn and will play in front of family and friends at Madison Square Garden, tallied 20 points and eight rebounds versus the Bulldogs.

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Big Ten.
* Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in Florida State's last four neutral site games.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, April 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Clemson - 7:00 PM ET Clemson +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Southern Methodist - Over 119 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Yale - 7:00 PM ET VMI -1 500 *****

VMI - Under 163.5 500

Florida St. - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota +0 500 *****

Minnesota - Over 139.5 500

Pacific - 9:00 PM ET Murray St. -5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Murray St. - Under 150.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Fresno State at Siena
The Saints look to capture the CBI Tournament tonight on their home court where they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Siena is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2

Game 527-528: Fresno State at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 60.489; Siena 63.676
Dunkel Line: Siena by 3; 128
Vegas Line: Siena by 1; 135
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1); Under


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 2

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FRESNO ST (20 - 17) at SIENA (19 - 17) - 4/2/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SIENA is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
SIENA is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, April 5

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CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 5

Connecticut vs Florida, 6:10 ET
Connecticut: 19-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog
Florida: 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Kentucky vs Wisconsin, 8:50 ET
Kentucky: 17-8 UNDER as a favorite
Wisconsin: 23-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 2

Siena (+8) won 61-57 at Fresno State Monday, in first of best-of-3 CBI final, after trailing by six at halftime. Saints have now won eight of last nine games, but this game will be played in the on-campus ARC instead of the arena downtown where Siena has played home games since 1997. ARC seats around 4,000, is right on campus; game is rumored to be sold out. Siena won its last five home games, with last loss to triple overtime to Canisius. Fresno is 12-4 in its last 16 games, winning three of its last four true road games; they were -8 (16-8) in turnovers Monday, missed 11 of 16 3's, losing despite shooting 57% inside the arc




NCAAB

Wednesday, April 2

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. SIENA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games on the road
Fresno State is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Siena is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Siena is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Betting Angles

March 31, 2014


It’s onward to Dallas for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2014 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to the big ‘D’ this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy.

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not off an ATS win are 9-1 ATS (Florida)

#2 Seeds are 6-13 ATS (Wisconsin)

The last #7 Seed to appear in a Final Four game was 1984 (Connecticut)

#8 Seeds are 1-2 SU and ATS (Kentucky)

Teams who are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 10-15 ATS (Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin)

Teams with same season revenge are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (Florida)

SEC teams are 5-2 ATS versus foes off an underdog win (Florida, Kentucky)

Big 10 underdogs off three straight ATS wins are 1-6 ATS (Wisconsin)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

#1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

#2 Seeds are 0-3 SUATS since 2006

#5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

Underdogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

Underdogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

Big 10 teams are 1-7 SUATS

SEC teams are 3-0 SUATS since 2006

COACH ME UP

Connecticut’s Kevin Ollie is:
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs Big 10
1-0 and 0-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Florida’s Billy Donovan is:
34-11 SU and 27-17-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs AAC
9-10 SU and 8-10-1 ATS vs Big 10
218-114 SU and 169-156-7 ATS vs SEC
5-9 SU and 6-7-1 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS vs Ollie
1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
42-13 SU and 31-23-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs AAC
10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS vs Big 10
95-36 SU and 64-65-2 ATS vs SEC
9-5 SU and 7-6-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
20-12 SU and 19-12-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs AAC
9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played over the last 25 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have.

I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno St. - 7:00 PM ET Siena -1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Siena - Under 132 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

SMU vs. Minnesota
The Mustangs look to capture tonight's NIT final and come into the contest against Minnesota (24-13) with an 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 games against teams with a winning SU record. SMU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

THURSDAY, APRIL 3

Game 705-706: SMU vs. Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 68.328; Minnesota 62.646
Dunkel Line: SMU by 5 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: SMU by 2 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Yale at Murray State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 55.485; Murray State 58.549
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 3; 144
Vegas Line: Murray State by 7 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+7 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 3

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MINNESOTA (24 - 13) vs. SMU (27 - 9) - 4/3/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SMU is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SMU is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
SMU is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SMU is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
SMU is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
SMU is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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YALE (19 - 13) at MURRAY ST (22 - 11) - 4/3/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all home games this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
YALE is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, April 5

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CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (36 - 2) - 4/5/2014, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 66-39 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (28 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (30 - 7) - 4/5/2014, 8:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
WISCONSIN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 3

Yale is 14-5 in its last 19 games, winning last three tourney games on the road; Bulldogs held high-powered VMI to 62 points Tuesday, playing only one guy more than 27:00. Yale is 10-8 outside the Ivies. Murray St won 17 of last 21 games after starting season 5-8; they scored 89.7 ppg in winning last three games, all at home. Racers are 7-7 outside the OVC; they played played only one guy more than 29:00 Tuesday, when they made 13-25 from the arc in easy win home win over Pacific.

SMU was team most slighted by getting left out of NCAAs, they lost twice to Louisville, by 13-8 points, now they face Minnesota team that is coached by Richard Pitino-- I'm guessing he has an excellent scouting report on SMU. Mustangs allowed 61.3 ppg in winning first four games in this tournament; they only used two guys more than 24:00 Tuesday, winning game they trailed by 13 in second half. Gophers' four wins in NIT were all by 8 or less points; they played three guys 39:00+ in OT win over Florida State Tuesday




NCAAB

Thursday, April 3

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Southern Methodist's last 11 games
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
YALE vs. MURRAY STATE
Yale is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Yale's last 6 games on the road
Murray State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Murray State's last 13 games at home


Saturday, April 5

6:09 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games

8:49 PM
KENTUCKY vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games


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NCAAB

Thursday, April 3

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NIT Championship betting preview: Southern Methodist vs. Minnesota
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Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+3, 132.5)

Southern Methodist looks for its first NIT title in program history when it faces Minnesota in New York on Thursday. The Mustangs erased a 13-point deficit in the second half to beat Clemson 65-59 for their fourth win in a row after being controversially left out of the NCAA tournament. "We haven't had a lot of nice things happen at SMU for a long, long time," coach Larry Brown admitted to reporters. "So if we are fortunate enough to win a championship like this and I am a part of it, it would be pretty neat."

Minnesota advanced to its second NIT championship game in the last three years after holding off Florida State 67-64 in overtime. The Golden Gophers were blown out 75-51 by Stanford in the 2012 final and hope to take care of business this time around after squandering a 15-point lead against the Seminoles before squeaking out a victory. "We really didn't want it to end," senior guard Austin Hollins told reporters. The guys really stuck together in overtime and played as hard as we could."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Gophers opened as 3-point dogs with the total holding at 132.5.

INJURY REPORT: SMU: C Yanick Moreira (Qut for season, knee). Minnesota: C Elliott Eliason (Questionable, ankle), F Oto Osenieks (Out indefinitely, knee)

WHY BET MINNESOTA (24-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS, 14-17-1 O/U: Austin Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu each scored 17 points and Maurice Walker made six free throws in overtime to lift the Golden Gophers over Florida State. Minnesota has won the NIT in 1993 and 1998, but the last title was vacated due to an academic scandal. Andre Hollins tops the team in scoring (13.6), but has averaged just 7.2 points in four tournament games.

WHY BET SOUTHERN METHODIST (27-9 SU, 20-12 ATS, 12-19 O/U): Markus Kennedy has played some of his best basketball of the season in the NIT and recorded 21 points, nine rebounds and three steals versus Clemson. Brown is the only coach to win an NBA and NCAA championship and can add an NIT title to his impressive collection with a win on Thursday. SMU can equal a program record set by the 1987-88 team for most victories in a season with 28 if it beats Minnesota.

TRENDS:

* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Golden Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 8-3 in Mustangs last 11 overall.
* Over is 13-6-1 in Golden Gophers last 20 neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 70 percent of wagers are on SMU at -3.

[StarDust Bum]

SMU vs. Minnesota

April 2, 2014


Southern Methodist and Minnesota will collide Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City for the 2014 NIT title. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had SMU (27-9 straight up, 20-12 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 132.

Gamblers can take the Gophers on the money line for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135). For first-half wagers, Larry Brown's squad is favored by 1.5 with a total of 61.

SMU trailed Clemson by 12 at intermission and by 15 early in the second half of Tuesday's semifinals showdown. Nevertheless, the Mustangs rallied to capture a 65-59 win as 3.5-point 'chalk.' The 124 combined points slipped 'over' the 119-point total.

Markus Kennedy only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble, but he really got going in the second half. Kennedy finished with 21 points, nine rebounds and three steals. He made 8-of-13 attempts from the field.

Sophomore point guard Nic Moore added 13 points, five rebounds and four assists. Sterling Brown added eight points, five boards and four assists.

Moore and Kennedy form an outstanding inside-outside combination for Brown's team. Moore averages 13.5 points and 4.8 assists per game, while Kennedy averages 12.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocked shots per contest.

Minnesota (24-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) has won seven of its last nine games, compiling a 6-3 spread record. The only defeats have come against Wisconsin, which is in the Final Four, and Michigan, which nearly got to the national semifinals before dropping a heartbreaker to Kentucky in the Midwest Region finals this past Sunday.

Minnesota advanced to the finals by virtue of a 67-64 overtime win over Florida St. as a 1.5-point underdog. The Gophers gave up a game-tying buzzer beater at the end of regulation, only to recover and outscore the Seminoles 7-4 in the extra session.

Austin Hollins and Deandre Mathieu shared game-high scoring honors with 17 points apiece. Hollins drained 7-of-11 shots from the field and 3-of-4 shots from 3-point range. Mathieu made both of his attempts from deep and contributed four rebounds and four assists. Andre Hollins added 13 points.

Richard Pitino's squad has been an underdog 13 times, going 6-7 ATS with five outright victories.

Minnesota is dealing with frontcourt injuries that could play a major role in this contest. Elliott Eliason, a fourth-year junior center who averages 5.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, suffered a sprained ankle at practice over the weekend and couldn't play against the 'Noles. Eliason has blocked a team-high 73 shots, but he's 'questionable' against the Mustangs.

Also, forward Oto Osenieks (5.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG) is 'out' with a knee injury.

The 'under' is 19-12 overall for SMU, 8-3 in its last 11 games. The 'under' is 17-14-1 overall for the Gophers.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Larry Brown is the only coach to ever win an NBA and NCAA Championship. He can add an NIT to his collection on Thursday. Former Arkansas and Tulsa coach Nolan Richardson is the only one to ever win NCAA, NIT and Junior College titles.

-- Missouri's Jabari Brown announced Wednesday that he'll declare for the NBA Draft just as his teammate Jordan Clarkson did a few days ago. Brown, a first-team All-SEC selection who averaged 19.9 PPG in 2013-2014, has not decided whether or not he'll sign with an agent. April 15 is the deadline.

-- Georgia made a commitment to Mark Fox on Wednesday, signing him to an extension through 2018.

-- BYU announced earlier this week that Matt Carlino is transferring. Carlino, who started his career at UCLA, will graduate in June and be eligible immediately at whatever school he chooses. Since Carlino is a native of Scottsdale and Jahii Carson will be gone, Arizona State will probably be one of the candidates for his services.

-- According to multiple reports Wednesday evening, Wake Forest has offered its head-coaching job to Tulsa's Danny Manning, who is leaning towards accepting the gig.

[StarDust Bum]

Mustangs, Gophers hook up

April 3, 2014


Minnesota (24-13) vs. SMU (27-9)

NIT: Championship
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: SMU -3.5 & 133

Both Minnesota and SMU look to end their seasons with a win on Thursday night when the schools collide for the NIT Championship at Madison Square Garden.

Minnesota has won six of its past seven games (5-2 ATS), including Tuesday night’s 67-64 overtime victory in the semifinal round against Florida State. Gophers SG Austin Hollins has been on fire as of late, scoring 17 points in the win against the Seminoles after scoring 32 in the previous round. However, Minnesota did not make it easy on Tuesday night, as it shot 16-of-25 from the free throw line, including some big ones that allowed FSU to send it to overtime. However, the Minnesota defense was tough all game, forcing 18 Seminoles turnovers and holding them to only 38% FG. The team is now 16-17-1 ATS overall (7-6-1 ATS in non-conference play) and 2-3 ATS on a neutral court. SMU continued its strong postseason run despite the disappointment of not making it to the NCAA Tournament.

The Mustangs were in big trouble on Tuesday night against Clemson, but were able to come back from a 12-point halftime deficit to earn the 65-59 victory. That makes them 20-12 ATS (63%) overall this season (8-5 ATS in non-conference play) and 2-3 ATS on a neutral court. SF Markus Kennedy continued his strong postseason run, coming just one rebound short of another double-double, as he finished with 21 points and nine rebounds. A big reason why the Mustangs were able to advance to the championship game was because of their ability to dominate the glass, as they outrebounded the Tigers 35-25. Both teams have positive betting trends for Thursday night, as Minnesota is 13-4 ATS (77%) versus slow-down teams (53 or less FGA per game) over the past three seasons, while SMU is 15-7 ATS (68%) versus poor pressure defenses (forcing 14 or less TO per game) this season.

Minnesota comes into the game ranked 147th in the country in scoring (71.6 PPG) while shooting 44.6% from the field (151st in Div. I). The Golden Gophers have a lot of guys that can get out and run, and that is fueled by the ability of the team to create havoc by forcing turnovers (7.6 SPG, 36th in nation). The Minnesota defense isn't that special though, as it allows 67.9 PPG (114th in Div. I) on 42.4% FG (112th in nation) and 34.3% threes (172 in nation). Andre Hollins (13.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.4 APG) has really struggled thus far in the postseason for the Gophers, and he must play up to his potential against SMU to get the victory. He is a very talented scorer that can also affect a game in many different ways. With Austin Hollins (not related) playing so well in the tournament, the Mustangs will be focused on slowing Austin down. This will give Andre some one-on-one opportunities, and he must capitalize on them.

Deandre Mathieu (11.8 PPG, 4.1 APG, 2.8 RPG) has played terrific basketball in his first year playing for Minnesota. He is undersized at 5-foot-9, but is fearless when driving the ball to the basket. He is also a big time three-point shooter, connecting on 20-of-41 from deep (49% threes). Mathieu is the most important player in this game, as the Mustangs have a terrific defense. If he is able to hit some early shots from the perimeter, the lanes should open up for him and the other Gophers to attack the rim. Maurice Walker (7.9 PPG), Malik Smith (7.5 PPG) and Joey King (7.2 PPG) are all solid contributors off the bench, who have all had big games scoring this season. The biggest key for Minnesota will be how they handle the frontcourt of the Mustangs, who have a lot of talent there.

SMU has shown the ability to make it extremely tough for its opponents to score the ball, ranking seventh in the nation in opposing field goal percentage (38.2%), while allowing only 62.2 PPG (22nd in Div. I). That defense was the key to get the victory against Clemson on Tuesday night, as the Mustangs allowed only 21 second-half points to help complete the comeback. While they do not score a lot of points with 71.2 PPG (166th in nation), the Mustangs do a terrific job of shooting the ball, ranking 18th in the nation at 48.3% FG. Larry Brown’s team does a great job of sharing the ball too, averaging 15.2 APG, good for 34th in Division I. Nic Moore (13.5 PPG, 4.9 APG) is a terrific scorer that can take over a game on the offensive end. He does a great job of attacking the rim, but he is also an accurate shooter from the outside (45% threes). While he does not have elite height, he has the athleticism and speed to make up for it. Kennedy (12.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is the difference maker on this team. He has terrific size and is absolutely relentless on both ends of the court. He has a nice variety of moves on the low block, and he also can finish at the rim against the best shot-blockers in the country. Nick Russell (9.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG) is an experienced shooting guard that has played in many big games in his career, and has drained 40% threes this season. With Moore attacking the rim as well as he has, it allows Russell to hang out on the perimeter where he is a terrific spot-up shooter.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, April 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +7.5 500 Double Play

Murray St. - Over 138 500 Triple Play


Southern Methodist - 7:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -3 500 Triple Play

Minnesota - Over 132.5 500 Double Play

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Preview

April 3, 2014


Florida (-6.5) vs. UConn - Saturday, 6:00 PM EST

The Gators are 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games and they are 10-1 SU this season on a neutral court. UConn is 8-0 SU on neutral courts this season. They are on a 6-1 ATS overall run and are 8-4 ATS this season as an underdog.

FLORIDA

Why the Gators will win it all: The odds-on favorite to win the tournament, Florida, has won 30 straight games and hasn't lost a game since December 2nd. The Gators have dominated the competition, winning each of their four tournament games by 10 points or more. They rank 1st in KenPom rankings and are the only remaining team that fits the championship mold; top 18 in offensive efficiency and top 21 in defensive efficiency. The Gators’ defense, which is No. 1 in the country in efficiency, has held each tournament opponent to less than one point per possession. It has also held its four opponents under 42% field goals and under 30% three pointers in the tournament. They've gotten to the charity stripe 30 more times and are making 74% of their FT attempts in the tournament.

Why the Gators won’t win it all: Despite being the odds-on favorite, the Gators have an extremely tough road ahead of them. The Gators' only two losses this season came against UConn and Wisconsin - both fellow Final Four squads. The other Final Four team, Kentucky, matched up with Florida three times in SEC play and lost by just one point to Florida in the SEC Tournament Final. The Gators have had the easiest road here, beating a No. 16, a No. 9, a No. 4, and a No. 11. They haven’t been truly tested since beating Kentucky in the SEC Final. Florida has made 74% of its free throws in the tournament, but ranked 279th in free throw percentage during the regular season.

UCONN

Why the Huskies will win it all: The Huskies have the best playmaker remaining in guard Shabazz Napier. Napier is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals while shooting 45.2 percent from three in the Huskies' four tournament wins so far. UConn has made 40% of its three pointers in four tournament wins thus far. The Huskies have a very solid defense. They rank 10th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings and 13th in opponents field goal percentage (39.2%). They get to the charity stripe often and convert at an astonishing rate (4th nationally in free throw percentage). They made an astounding 81-of-92 (88%) free throws through the first four tournament games.

Why the Huskies won’t win it all: UConn had a relatively easy road here. They were lucky to come away with a win over Saint Joseph's in their first game, beat a cold-shooting Villanova squad in round of 32, and benefitted from a HUGE home-court advantage of playing at Madison Square Garden in the last two games against Iowa State and Michgian State. Outside of Napier, UConn's supporting cast can be a bit sporadic and they're unlikely to overcome a poor-shooting night from Napier.

Kentucky (-1.5) vs. Wisconsin - Saturday, 8:45 PM EST

Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its four tournament games and has yet to lose to a team outside of the Big Ten this season. They are 4-1 SU & ATS as an underdog this season. Three of the four tournament games have finished "under" the total. Kentucky has covered each of its past seven games. The total has gone "over" in three of its four tournament games.

WISCONSIN

Why the Badgers will win it all: Wisconsin is the only team in the country to beat the regular season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac-12 this year. The Badgers are the most fundamentally sound team remaining. They are extremely smart with the basketball as they turn it over at just a 12.7% rate (ranked 2nd nationally) and they don't commit silly fouls (3rd in opponents free throw rate). They don't give teams many 2nd chances either, ranking 18th in defensive rebounding percentage. Unlike previous editions of Wisconsin hoops, this one is built on an uber-efficient offense, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency on KenPom.com.

Why the Badgers won’t win it all: Though the defense has looked strong in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Baylor, this unit still ranks just 45th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser, Wisconsin’s starting guards who all average 31+ minutes per game, stand 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3, respectively. Kentucky's backcourt of the Harrison twins and Young are all 6-6. They are very thin in the frontcourt behind Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes. Should either of the two get in foul trouble, it would spell bad news for the Badgers.

KENTUCKY

Why the Wildcats will win it all: Kentucky disposed of the only unbeaten team in the country (Wichita State), the defending national champion (Louisville) and the defending national runner-up (Michigan). The Wildcats have the most talented roster in Dallas. Four players average 11 PPG or more and star forward Julius Randle has notched a double-double in all four tournament games. They are probably the best rebounding team left. In its last three wins, Kentucky has outrebounded its opponents by an average of 9.3 boards per game. That advantage is especially obvious on the offensive end, where the ‘Cats boast the country’s top offensive rebounding percentage (42.5 percent). In fact, Kentucky has grabbed at least 10 offensive boards in each of its last three victories.

Why the Wildcats won’t win it all: All that talent on the roster comes with inexperience and youth. They are, by far, the youngest team in Dallas and you never know what to expect from youth in big stages – especially with five freshman in the starting lineup. Kentucky converted on just under 40% of its three-point attempts in four tournament games after making just 33.2% during the regular season (ranked 231st nationally). Kentucky can't afford to go back to its old shooting ways in the Final Four. The Wildcats rank 174th in turnover percentage and were -15 in turnover ratio through the first four tournament games.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Breakdown

April 2, 2014


There’s only four teams left standing in the NCAA Tournament, and we're set to break all four of them down, stating how they can win the National Championship, and how they can lose it as well.

Florida Gators (36-2, 18-15-1 ATS) – The biggest issue which the Gators have right now is that they very well could end up playing two teams in Arlington who beat them in the regular season. The good news? They haven't lost a game since losing to Connecticut up at Gampel Pavilion back in early December. UF has the best "team" in this field as we see it, and the only way that it ends up not capturing a third National Championship under the Billy Donovan’s watch is if the team gets three-point shot happy instead of getting the ball down in the paint to Casey Prather and the rest of the bigs with regularity.

Wisconsin Badgers (30-7, 21-16 ATS) – This Wisconsin team is sort of the anti-Kentucky. There isn't a freshman in the bunch that is playing big minutes. The pros for the Badgers? They're disciplined, they play smart offensive basketball, and they have held their foes under 30 points in six of their eight halves here in the dance. The problem? For our money, they're the least talented side left in this tournament, especially if someone can find some way to match up against Frank Kaminsky. For as good as Shabazz Napier has been for the Huskies, Kaminsky is the MVP of this tournament so far in our eyes.

Connecticut Huskies (30-8, 21-15 ATS) – Our team of the tournament, UConn has made it from a team which should have been knocked out in the opening round against St. Joe's to a team which is just 80 minutes of basketball away from a National Championship. Much like Wisconsin, the problem that the Huskies have now is that they don't have the more talented team on the floor regardless of who the foe is. However, Shabazz Napier is the great equalizer, and if there is a way to beat Florida for a second time this year, it would be his heroics that get the job done. Napier went for 26 points against UF when these teams met in Storrs, and he’s put up at least 24 on the board in three of UConn’s four tourney games.

Kentucky Wildcats (28-10, 19-15-2 ATS) – The Cats might have been a bubble team just four weeks ago, but their run to the SEC Tournament Final is all that really assured they would be in the dance. They have been considered a dangerous team every step of the way, and once they cleared the hurdle of the undefeated Shockers, they were going to be well on their way to the Final Four. The talent is awfully rich at Kentucky, and Head Coach John Calipari knows that he has the best team in America in terms of talent. The only way that falls apart is if it all of a sudden loses that chemistry which it has built over the course of the last few weeks. The only concern from that standpoint is whether Willie Cauley-Stein had a ton to do with that chemistry. His season is likely over with an ankle injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Betting Angles

It’s onward to Dallas for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2014 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to the big ‘D’ this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Enjoy.

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not off an ATS win are 9-1 ATS (Florida)

#2 Seeds are 6-13 ATS (Wisconsin)

The last #7 Seed to appear in a Final Four game was 1984 (Connecticut)

#8 Seeds are 1-2 SU and ATS (Kentucky)

Teams who are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 10-15 ATS (Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin)

Teams with same season revenge are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (Florida)

SEC teams are 5-2 ATS versus foes off an underdog win (Florida, Kentucky)

Big 10 underdogs off three straight ATS wins are 1-6 ATS (Wisconsin)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

#1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

#2 Seeds are 0-3 SUATS since 2006

#5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

Underdogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

Underdogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

Big 10 teams are 1-7 SUATS

SEC teams are 3-0 SUATS since 2006

COACH ME UP

Connecticut’s Kevin Ollie is:
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs Big 10
1-0 and 0-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Florida’s Billy Donovan is:
34-11 SU and 27-17-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs AAC
9-10 SU and 8-10-1 ATS vs Big 10
218-114 SU and 169-156-7 ATS vs SEC
5-9 SU and 6-7-1 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS vs Ollie
1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
42-13 SU and 31-23-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs AAC
10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS vs Big 10
95-36 SU and 64-65-2 ATS vs SEC
9-5 SU and 7-6-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
20-12 SU and 19-12-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs AAC
9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs SEC
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Calipari
1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS vs Donovan
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Ollie

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played over the last 25 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have.

I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

[StarDust Bum]

UConn vs. Florida

April 3, 2014


Florida (36-2 straight up, 18-15-1 against the spread) hasn't tasted defeat since Dec. 2 when it lost a 65-64 decision at Connecticut when Shabazz Napier buried a buzzer beater to lift his team to victory. Napier killed the Gators with 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field and 5-of-8 connections from 3-point land.

In fairness to UF, it didn't have reserve freshman point guard Kasey Hill, who was out with a sprained ankle. Also, back-up freshman center Chris Walker wasn't eligible yet. Most of all, though, SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin sprained his ankle with about four minutes left and was getting treatment in the locker room at crunch time.

Therefore, Billy Donovan's team didn't have a point guard down the stretch. Nevertheless, Florida took the cash as a four-point underdog, while the 129 combined points stayed 'under' the 131-point total.

The game in Storrs featured 14 lead changes, including three in last minute, and six ties. The game was not without controversy, however. With UF leading 62-59 with 33.5 ticks remaining, Napier buried a 3-pointer to tie things up.

There was nothing wrong with the tying trey, but the whistle was absolute garbage. In vintage Reggie Miller-fashion, Napier stuck his leg out as Michael Frazier II breezed past him in contesting the shot attempt. All credit to Napier, as he sold it like the best used-car salesman in the business.

Napier made the free throw for the four-point play and a one-point UConn advantage. Frazier answered with a driving score to put the Gators back in front with 17.7 left. Then the real drama ensued.

As UConn tried to run a high pick-and-roll play for Napier off the dribble, UF perfectly defended it and forced Napier to pick up his dribble with a swarming trap. When Napier couldn't find anyone to pass to, he split the trap and started dribbling again.

Alas, no double dribble was called and Napier rushed a shot that was a hard brick off the glass. The ball came off so hard that it was deflected out into the waiting arms of Napier, who fired away from just inside the top of the key before the horn sounded and got nothing buy nylon.

In the losing effort, UF senior forward Casey Prather scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Patric Young added 17 points and seven boards. Wilbekin had 15 points before getting injured.

Since the loss, Florida has won 30 consecutive games to easily break a school record. The Gators, who are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 outings, have won all four NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins.

After getting past Albany in a non-covering triumph in Orlando, UF advanced to its fourth straight Sweet 16 by spanking Pittsburgh 61-45 as a 5.5-point 'chalk.' Wilbekin was the catalyst with a game-high 21 points, including a 3-pointers at the first-half buzzer that gave the Gators momentum and a 27-22 advantage at intermission.

I was in Memphis last weekend and saw UF eliminate a talented UCLA squad by a 79-68 count as a 4.5-point favorite. Frazier was the hero with a game-high 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting from deep. He drained four consecutive 3-pointers at one point in the first half to allow the Gators to create some distance from the Bruins, who had won five in a row, including wins over Oregon, Stanford, Arizona and Stephen F. Austin.

Playing in its fourth straight Elite Eight, Florida's senior-laden team finally got the monkey off its back. Sure, it was fortunate to face a double-digit seed in Dayton so deep in the Tournament, but a similar scenario against Butler at the 2011 South Region finals in New Orleans didn't work out.

This time around, UF captured a 62-52 win as a 10.5-point favorite. Donovan's bunch used a 15-1 run late in the first half, including a fourth last-second Wilbekin 3-pointer in the last six games, to get past the Flyers, who never got closer than eight in the second half.

UConn (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS) got a wake-up call after getting blasted 81-48 at Louisville as a nine-point underdog on March 8. Since then, Kevin Ollie's squad has won six of its last seven games both SU and ATS, including four NCAA Tourney wins over St. Joseph's, Villanova, Iowa St. and Michigan St. All six victories came over NCAA-bound foes, including Cincinnati and Memphis at the inaugural AAC Tournament.

Although UConn is in the Final Four as a No. 7 seed, I wouldn't say anything it has done has surprised me with the exception of the win over Sparty, a No. 4 seed that I expected to make it to North Texas.

In its NCAA opener, UConn needed overtime and outstanding free-throw shooting (18-of-20 for 90%) to get past St. Joe's. The Huskies hooked up their backers with an extremely fortunate cover as five-point favorites. Napier produced 24 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three steals. DeAndre Daniels added 18 points.

Ollie's team sent second-seeded Villanova packing with a 77-65 third-round win as a four-point underdog. Napier was limited to eight minutes of playing time in the first half after picking up two quick fouls. Nevertheless, the All-American scored 21 of his game-high 25 points in the second half to guide his team to the winner's circle.

UConn caught a pair of key breaks in the East Region semifinals (and finals) last weekend. First, the venue was Madison Square Garden in New York City, resulting in a huge crowd advantage for the Huskies thanks to their loyal fans who descended upon the Big Apple. Secondly, they faced an Iowa St. team playing without one of the Big 12's best players in Georges Niang, who broke his foot in the Cyclones' opening win of the Tourney.

Whatever the case, UConn got it done and took out Iowa St. 81-76 in a pick 'em affair. Daniels was the catalyst, erupting for 27 points and 10 rebounds. Napier contributed 19 points, five boards and five helpers.

In Sunday's Elite Eight showdown versus red-hot Michigan St., it was UConn's defense that was pivotal in a 60-54 win as a five-point underdog. Napier's game-high 25 points were the difference and his 9-for-9 shooting at the charity stripe helped put the game on ice.

As of early Thursday morning, most books had the Gators favored by 6.5 with a total of 126.5. Gamblers can take the Huskies on the money line for a +250 return.

The 'under' is 22-11-1 overall for Florida, although the 'over' appeared in its NCAA wins over Albany and UCLA. The 'under' is 22-13 overall for UConn, but the 'over' hit in its first three Tourney games before the 'under' appeared in its win over the Spartans.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. CBS will have the broadcast from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The updated future odds at most books have UF as the even-money 'chalk' to win the title on Monday night. Kentucky has +330 odds (risk $100 to win $330), while Wisconsin and UConn are at +375 and +770, respectively.

-- This is UF's fourth trip to the Final Four in Donovan's storied 18-year tenure. He is 3-0 in the national semifinals. The Gators are in the Final Four for the fifth time in school history. Their only semifinal loss came in Charlotte in 1994 when they allowed an 11-point second-half lead to get away against Duke, which won in come-from-behind fashion thanks to the late-game heroics of a dude named Grant Hill.

-- UF is gunning for its third national title in the last nine years, while UConn is aiming for a fourth national championship since 1999.

-- During UF's 30-game winning streak, it has won by six points or more 24 times.

-- Napier averages team-highs in scoring (18.1 PPG), rebounding (5.9 RPG), assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

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Florida or UConn? Who covers in Final Four
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Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies (+6, 126.5)

THREE REASONS FLORIDA COVERS

Defense

No team remaining in the hunt for the NCAA championship defends better than the Gators, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the nation during the regular season and have surrendered more than 60 points just once in seven postseason games. The Huskies have shown they can score - putting up at least 75 points in three of their four tournament games - but they didn't have to face the relentless press of a Florida team that forces opponents into bad shots and sloppy turnovers.

Close spreads

The 2013-14 Gators are at their best in games where they're narrow favorites. Florida has gone 6-1 ATS in games where it was a six-point fave or lower, and 3-1 in games in which it was the underdog, including an ATS victory over UConn on Dec. 2. The Gators are installed as a six-point favorite for Saturday's national semifinal.

Free throws

The Huskies make a living from the foul line, ranking in the Top 10 nationally at 77.4 percent, but will find the sledding a lot tougher against Florida. The Gators have been among the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to limiting free throws. They held opponents to 20 or fewer foul shots 23 times in 34 regular-season and conference tournament games and have yielded an average of fewer than 11 attempts in their four NCAA tournament contests.


THREE REASONS UCONN COVERS

Momentum

Sure, the Gators have strung together an impressive winning streak but the bulk of that came during their weak SEC schedule. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been able to find their form against the toughest teams in the country. In fact, if you take out two losses to Louisville, Connecticut has won nine straight going back to early February, going 7-2 ATS in those contests.

Confidence

The last team to beat the mighty Gators was UConn, upending Florida 65-64 at home – a game in which the Huskies were actually 4-point favorites. Teams like Florida thrive on having the mental edge over its opponent – beating them before they even touch the court. However, UConn is not afraid of big bad UF and has just enough confidence, momentum and swagger to snap Florida’s 30-game winning run. The Huskies forced the Gators to commit 16 turnovers in that first meeting and limited them to just 3-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc while answering with 11 3-pointers of their own.

Shabazz Napier

Napier is doing one hell of a Kemba Walker impression in the tournament, carrying UConn to the Final Four much like his former teammate did in 2011. He’s scoring over 23 points per game and has hit big shot after big shot. The Huskies offense throws a lot of on the ball screens at their opponent’s backcourt, looking to break Napier for an easy look. He went for 26 in the first meeting with Florida, including a 17-foot jumper to win the game as time expired.


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NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

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Final Four betting preview: UConn vs. Florida
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Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gators (-6, 126.5)

Florida won its 30th straight game to reach the Final Four in north Texas, where they will face the last team to beat them - Connecticut. The top-seeded Gators swept through the South regional and have a chance to avenge both their losses this with the East regional champion Huskies in the mix along with Wisconsin looming in a potential championship game. To get there, Florida will have to find a way to stop Shabazz Napier.

Napier was a freshman on the team Kemba Walker put on his back and carried to a national championship in 2011 and is using a similar model in his senior campaign. The point guard scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half of the regional final victory over Michigan State and has made a habit out of clutch performances in carrying Connecticut. The Gators have a quartet of seniors on which to lean and rarely need any one player to take over the game offensively.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 6.5-point faves but now sit -6. The total opened 125 and has been bet upt 126.5.

INJURY REPORT: UConn: G Pat Lenehan (Questionable, undisclosed)

WHY BET UCONN (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-22 O/U): Napier, who was named to the Wooden All-American team Monday, nailed a buzzer-beater to give the Huskies a 65-64 home victory over Florida on Dec. 2, capping a 26-point game. Napier hit five 3-pointers in that contest - two more than the entire Gators team - and has been strong from beyond the arc with 12-of-23 finding the bottom of the net in the last three games. DeAndre Daniels provided plenty of support with 27 points and 10 rebounds in the Sweet 16 win over Iowa State and helped keep Connecticut in the game in the first half of the regional final against Michigan State before Napier got going.

WHY BET FLORIDA (36-2 SU, 18-15-1 ATS, 11-22-1 O/U): The Gators are a dominant defensive team and held their four previous NCAA tournament opponents to an average of 55 points, with only UCLA breaking 60 in a 79-68 decision in the Sweet 16. Florida won each of those four games by double figures and had little trouble slowing down Dayton with a full-court press in the regional final. “One of the things I think it all comes down to is on the defensive end of the floor,” Florida coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “It’s very, very difficult to go on runs if you don’t get stops. I think a lot of our runs can be predicated on the fact that defensively we’ve gotten stops, and stops get you out on the break.”

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.
* Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-3 in Gators last 10 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.