The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Notes

March 24, 2014


With the 2014 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.

Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb and panache, or do they bomb like Ted Kaczynski on a blind date? Let’s take a peek.

ALL HANDS ON DECK

Unlike last year when half of the Sweet 16 field was made up of returnees, we find only five teams returning this season. They include – Arizona, Florida, Louisville, Michigan and Michigan State.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 68-46 SU and 50-62-2 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 37-3 SU and 23-17 ATS in these games.

Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 31-43 SU and 27-45-2 ATS in competitive contests.

Only Arizona finds itself making the cut (favored by 6 or more points) this year.

NOT QUITE A 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 28-25 SU and 19-32-2 ATS.

This year finds Michigan State coming up short in the gene pool.

SEEDY DEVELOPMENT

As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 50-17 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are money burners going 32-35 ATS.

No. 3 seeds have fared the worst, going 7-8 SU and 4-11 ATS as returnees in this round. Not good news for Iowa State.

Meanwhile, #4 or lower seed returnees are just 11-21 SU and 14-16-2 ATS. When facing a foe off a double-digit win they dip to 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

Certainly a not-so-Spartan role for Michigan State.

SAYANORA

Worse, when SWEET 16 returnees arrive and are forced to take on top quality foe with a win percentage of .830 or greater they spring a major leak, going 12-21 SU and 13-19-1 ATS, including 6-18 SU and 6-17-1 ATS in they won fewer than 30 games last season.

If these same teams are facing a foe off a win of 15 or more points they capsize, going 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS.

The life rafts are ready and standing by for Arizona and Michigan State this Thursday and Friday.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have ‘been there-and-done that’.

Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Sweet 16 betting cheat sheet


(11) Dayton Flyers vs. (10) Stanford Cardinal (-3, 132.5)

The Flyers put together a pair of dramatic wins in the opening weekend, scraping by Ohio State by one point in the second round and taking out Syracuse 55-53 in the round of 32. The Flyers held Syracuse to 0-of-10 from 3-point range in the round of 32 and will attempt to control the perimeter again against the Cardinal, who could not connect from long range in their 60-57 win over Kansas on Sunday.

The Cardinal did not need the 3-point shot against the Jayhawks because Dwight Powell, who was held without a field goal in the first game of the tournament, stepped up with 15 points on the inside.Stanford is gunning for its first trip to a regional final since 2001.

TRENDS:

* Dayton is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Stanford is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Stanford's last seven non-conference games.


(6) Baylor Bears vs. (2) Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 136.5)

The Bears, who rank 24th in the nation in rebounding, have dominated the boards by a combined margin of 69-47 in their two games and will be facing a Badgers team that ranks 261st on the glass. Wisconsin also will have to keep an eye on Baylor's guards from the perimeter, as Brady Heslip and Kenny Chery are a combined 9-of-19 from 3-point range in the tournament.

All five of the Badgers' starters average between 9.2 and 13.6 points and all five have made at least 30 3-pointers this season. Ben Brust is their top long-range threat with 89 3-pointers, giving him a school-record 228 for his career, and Josh Gasser is their best percentage shooter, nailing 45.6 percent of his 103 long-range attempts. Junior point guard Traevon Jackson has averaged 17 points, six rebounds and four assists in the tournament.

TRENDS:

* Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wisconsin's last six games overall.


(4) UCLA Bruins vs. (1) Florida Gators (-4.5, 137)

Guard Jordan Adams averages a team-high 17.4 points for the Bruins, who are averaging 81.5 points and 17.3 assists.Forward Tony Parker is shooting 9-of-13 from the field in two tournament games for the Bruins, who have won five straight since a stunning 18-point loss to Washington State in the regular-season finale.

The Gators, who rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency, returned to form against Pittsburgh after a lackluster 67-55 win over 16th-seeded Albany in the second round. If the Gators can slow down the Bruins, they figure to have an advantage in the frontcourt with forward Will Yeguete and SEC defensive player of the year Patric Young leading the way.

TRENDS:

* UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. the SEC.
* Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in UCLA's last six non-conference games.


(4) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (1) Arizona Wildcats (-7.5, 122)

Sixth man Dwayne Polee II (8.4 points) has provided a huge boost to his offensively challenged team over the past month and scored 15 points in each of the NCAA tournament victories against New Mexico State and North Dakota State. Polee’s progress is startling – he has earned the nickname “Trampolee” for his leaping ability and highlight dunks – when you factor in that coach Steve Fisher didn’t even insert him into the game during the November loss to Arizona.

Forward Aaron Gordon (12.4 points, 7.8 rebounds) is expected to enter the NBA draft once his freshman season is over and he put together back-to-back solid outings in NCAA tournament victories over Weber State and Gonzaga. Gordon averaged 17 points and seven rebounds and made 15-of-21 shots in the two victories while continuing to be a splendid complement to guard Nick Johnson (16.3 points this season), the Pac-12 Player of the Year.

TRENDS:

* San Diego State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight neutral site games.
* Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: Badgers can bust BU zone


Before you sink your teeth into the odds for the NCAA tournament’s West Regional, check out these betting news and notes for this week’s regional semifinal action:

No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-7.5, 122)

These teams look different than they did when they meet way back in November. Arizona is without standout forward Brandon Ashley, who broke his foot in Febraury, and SDSU has Dwaynne Polee II, who didn’t play in that first meeting with the Wildcats.

Polee II (8.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg) has since been named Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year, and he’s posted double-digit scoring in five of his last seven games, including the last four in a row. On the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, he had 15 points and six boards in both a 73-69 overtime win against No. 13 seed New Mexico State last Thursday and a 63-44 rout of Cinderella No. 12 seed North Dakota State Saturday. The Aztecs covered in both games.

Sean Miller’s troops were ridiculously effective at creating turnovers and consolidating them into instant points against Gonzaga in the Round of 32. Arizona scored on nine of Gonzaga’s first 11 turnovers, going a perfect 7 for 7 for 14 points on the first seven turnovers, en route to a 47-34 halftime lead. In the second half, the Wildcats kept up the pressure and finished the game scoring 17 times off 22 turnovers in an 84-61 rout as 7.5-point favorites.

No. 6 Baylor Bears vs. No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 136.5)

Baylor’s 85-55 blowout of No. 3 seed Creighton as a 3.5-point underdog was impressive. But the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jeff Potrykus thinks Wisconsin (28-7 SU, 19-16 ATS) might be better suited to solve a 1-3-1 zone defense that confounded the Bluejays. The Bears held Creighton to just 20.8 percent from 3-point range (5 of 24).

“The Bluejays passed on too many open midrange shots, something UW freshman Nigel Hayes (7.9 ppg, 52 percent shooting) doesn't do, and rarely used pass and shot fakes on the perimeter or in the lane against (Baylor 7-foot-1 sophomore center Isaiah) Austin (who averages 3.2 blocks per game),” writes Potrykus.

The Bears are hardly in unfamiliar territory, having reached the Elite Eight in both 2010 and 2012. There are three teams in the Sweet 16 that Baylor has already faced this year, and the Bears have beaten all three of them. Baylor nabbed non-conference wins over Dayton (67-66 giving 3.5 points) and Kentucky (67-62 getting 4.5 points), both on neutral courts, and took one of three meetings with the Cyclones, 74-61 as a 3-point home chalk, on March 4.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA South Regional betting news and notes: An upset Bruin?


With just four teams remaining in the South Regional, here's a look at the surviving schools entering Thursday's Sweet Sixteen action:

No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins (+4.5, 137)

The Gators defense will face its toughest test of the tournament against a Bruins team averaging 81.5 points per game. And to Florida head coach Billy Donovan, it isn't just how much UCLA scores - it's how the Bruins do it. "Those guys do a tremendous job of getting out in transition and running," Donovan told the Gainesville Sun. "They're a tremendous running team and a tremendous passing team." UCLA averages 17.2 assists per game, fifth in the nation.

The Bruins, meanwhile, are expecting Florida to look a lot like the Arizona Wildcats team UCLA faced in the Pac-12 tournament. Bruins head coach Steve Alford says the Gators' penchant for running ball screens and pressing relentlessly is a similar strategy to that employed by the Wildcats, who own the No. 1 seed in the West Region. UCLA upended Arizona 75-71 to win the Pac-12 title, committing just eight turnovers while dishing out 16 assists.

No. 11 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 10 Stanford Cardinal (-3, 132.5)

The Dayton duo of Dyshawn Pierre and Devin Oliver combines to shoot better than 39 percent from 3-point range, and will need to be just as good or better with the Flyers facing a significant size disadvantage up front. Dayton's up-tempo offense could make things difficult for a Stanford team that struggles defending in transition - the Cardinal are ranked in the 37th percentile nationally in that category, according to stats provided by Synergy.

Stanford may need some different tricks than the ones it used in its opening two victories. Dayton's long-range shooters poked massive holes in Syracuse's zone defense, and will do the same to the Cardinal if they don't close out. Another concern for a Stanford team that plays its starters more than just about any Division I team: the Dayton bench can score in bunches, as evidenced by its 52 reserve points in a Nov. 27 win over the Pac-12's California Bears.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Sweet 16 action report: Sharps, public split on Baylor-Wisconsin


Sweet 16 NCAA tournament odds have been on the board since early Monday morning, drawing action from sharps and public basketball bettors.

We talk with Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about the action coming on Thursday’s Round of 16 showdown between the No. 6 Baylor Bears and No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers:

Baylor Bears vs. Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -4, Move: -2.5, Move: -3.5

The Badgers opened as high as 4-point favorites Sunday and instantly got blasted by Baylor money, forcing a move to -3.5. That wasn’t enough as BU backers played their team all night into Monday morning, trimming this spread as low as -2.5 at some books. Sharp money made its move Tuesday morning, taking Wisconsin at the discounted spread.

“I believe our more recreational bettors were instantly attracted to Baylor plus the points after their more than impressive win over Creighton,” Stewart tells Covers. “When the public drove this price down to -3, I believe our sharper players found value on a very good Wisconsin team and they were willing to lay the low price.”

That split in action between the public and wiseguys has this spread settling in at Badgers -3.5 as Thursday’s tipoff draws closer. According to Stewart, 65 percent of the handle is riding on the underdog Bears.

“It’s a case where the public and the sharps are on opposite teams, which makes it a great game to book as long as it doesn’t fall Wisconsin by three or four points, in which case we get sided,” says Stewart. “It’s still very early and if we need to, we can get back to Wisconsin -3 and take more Wisconsin action at that price.”

As for the total, books opened this game as high as 137.5 points. Some markets are dealing 136.5, however, CarbonSports.ag is sticking at 137.5. Stewart says most of the money is on the Over but sharp money took the Under early on.

“We’re fine booking that Over action with knowing that the sharps are on this game Under,” he says.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Sweet 16 action report: Sharps siding with underdog UCLA


Sweet 16 NCAA tournament odds have been on the board since early Monday morning, drawing action from sharps and public basketball bettors.

We talk with Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about the action coming on Thursday’s Round of 16 showdown between the No. 4 UCLA Bruins and No. 1 Florida Gators:

UCLA Bruins vs. Florida Gators – Open: -5.5, Move: -4.5

According to Stewart, this is the most-bet game on the board for Thursday’s Sweet 16 slate. Early money came in on the underdog, which was fine by the sportsbook, knowing Florida – the tournament favorite – would see its share of public appeal. However, when sharps got involved with the Bruins, books had to trim this spread Tuesday morning.

The line dropped as much as a full point, where it sits right now. Stewart says that Gators bets are starting to show now, but instead of going back to the opener, the oddsmakers are adjusting the juice on the spread, moving Florida -4.5 from -110 to -115.

“So far it’s a pretty even game money wise, but we suspect we’ll start to see more Florida money show as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “I believe we’ll get back to Florida -5 and that will be our closing number.”

The total for Thursday’s game opened as low as 136.5 at some books and is up to 137.5 with some spots dealing 137 points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Sweet 16 action report: Tennessee-Michigan most lopsided handle


Sweet 16 NCAA tournament odds have been on the board since early Monday morning, drawing action from sharps and public basketball bettors.

We talk with Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about the action coming in on Friday’s Round of 16 showdown between the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers and the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines:

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines – Open: -1.5, Move: -2.5

It’s been all money on the Blue and Maize since this Sweet 16 game hit the board. Early action pounced on the Wolverines at -1.5 and pushed this spread past Michigan -2 and right to -2.5 before any Tennessee action showed up, making this the most lopsided handle of the Sweet 16.

However, wiseguys came creeping in with bites on the Cinderella Volunteers at +2.5 and pushed the spread back to Michigan -2 Monday morning, sparking another flood of money on the favorite. Books immediately went back to -2.5 and are confident with their position heading into the Round of 16 and 80 percent of the handle on the Wolverines.

“Tennessee was a play-in team, but they’ve played very well,” says Stewart. “While many pundits and experts were down on the SEC this year, the three teams that did make it to the tournament are all still playing.”

Stewart notes that the Volunteers are a sizzling 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games going back to conference play and that their lone loss came at the hands of No. 1 Florida in a very competitive game.

“This a good team, in my opinion, and I personally made this game a pick’em so I’m more than happy to take action on Michigan -2.5,” he says. “With that said, if the money keeps showing up on Michigan, I’ll have no problem getting to -3.”

The total for Friday’s game is opened as low as 131 points and has been driven up to as high as 133.5. Tennessee is 2-1 O/U in its three NCAA games while Michigan is 1-1 O/U, playing Over in a Round 3 win over Texas.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Sweet 16 props: DAY/STAN small lead total


The Sweet 16 is finally upon us and with it the final stretch run to crowning an NCAAB Champion. Books are expecting Stanford and Dayton to be a tight one as that game has the lowest O/U largest lead at 13.

Here are your prop bets for Thursday's college hoops action (Odds courtesy of LVH Superbooks):

UCLA VS FLORIDA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: KYLE ANDERSON (UCLA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: SCOTTIE WILBEKIN (FLORIDA)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110


DAYTON VS STANFORD

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEVIN OLIVER (DAYTON)
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: CHASSON RANDLE (STANFORD)
OVER 17.5 -110
UNDER 17.5 -110

BAYLOR VS WISCONSIN

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: BRADY HESLIP (BAYLOR)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: FRANK KAMINSKY (WIS)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110


SAN DIEGO ST VS ARIZONA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 9.5 -110
UNDER 9.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 15.0 -110
UNDER 15.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: XAVIER THAMES (SAN DIEGO ST)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON GORDON (ARIZONA)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

[StarDust Bum]

UCLA perfect ATS record since since regular season


The UCLA Bruins has been a solid play for bettors all season long, 23-12, but they have been paying out big for bettors in the playoffs.

Since the end of the regular season UCLA has covered in all five of their games, between both the Pac-12 conference tournament and March Madness. The Bruins were favorites in ever game, except the Pac-12 championship which they won straight-up over Arizona.

The Bruins have also been dominant for bettors against their best competition. In the past 16 meetings against teams with at least a .600 winning percentage, UCLA has a stellar 13-3 ATS record.

UCLA will be 4.5-point dogs when they square-off against No.1 ranked Florida in the Sweet 16.

[StarDust Bum]

Take it or leave it? Capping NCAA Sweet 16 rematches


When San Diego State and Arizona met back in November, neither team was thinking that non-conference clash would be a preview to this week’s Sweet 16 matchup.

The same goes for Louisville and Kentucky, who assumed their next meeting could be a lot deeper in the tournament when they had their annual battle just before the New Year.

Fast forward to March, and these teams are staring down a familiar foe with two regular season rematches on this week’s NCAA tournament schedule. And even though those first meetings happened some time ago – and these four teams have evolved – it’s worth looking back to see what bettors can leave and take from those initial games.

San Diego State vs. Arizona Wildcats

First meeting: Arizona 69, San Diego State 60

What to take: Not a lot of 3-pointers

Neither Arizona nor San Diego State depend on the 3-pointer. The Wildcats are 14 for 32 from beyond the arc in the tournament so far, but only make 5.2 triples per game.

The Aztecs hit fewer, knocking down just 4.8 3-pointers per game, and are 13 for 33 from distance in the tournament. They combined to shoot 24 total 3-pointers in that November meeting, making only seven.

“I wouldn't expect anything different in the rematch as Arizona only scores 22.1 percent of their points from beyond the arc while San Diego State only scores 21.3 percent of their points from 3-point land,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

What to leave: Wildcats’ rebounding

Arizona dominated the boards in the win over San Diego State, out-rebounding the Aztecs 36-23, including 11 offensive rebounds.

Six of those defensive boards came from forward Brandon Ashley, who added six points in the victory. Ashley averaged 11.5 points and just under six rebounds before suffering a season-ending foot injury in early February.

“They haven't been nearly as good of a rebounding team since Ashley got hurt, and I don't expect another plus-13 margin for the Wildcats on the boards,” says professional handicapper Teddy Covers.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals

First meeting: Kentucky 73, Louisville 66

What to take: Kentucky’s physicality

The Wildcats have a distinct physical edge over the Cardinals, and it showed in this earlier clash. Kentucky controlled the glass – 40-33 in rebounding with 13 offensive boards – and was able to muscle for points in the paint.

The deciding mismatch was in the backcourt, where UK’s bigger guards bullied UL’s star PG Russ Smith. Kentucky’s guard trio of the Harrisons – Andrew and Aaron - and James Young combined for 46 points, 18 rebounds and seven assists.

“Russ Smith - the heart and soul of Louisville's team - had a rough game,” says Teddy Covers. “0-fer from 3-point range and just 5 for 10 from the free-throw line with four turnovers.”

What to leave: Low-scoring final

Neither team shot the ball well in their first meeting in Lexington on December 28, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying.

The Wildcats tossed up 62 shots – making 27 (43.5 percent) – while the Cardinals attempted 58 field goals, hitting 23 (39.7 percent). They were especially cold from outside, shooting a combined 9 for 40.

“That game was low scoring but it was played at a decent pace, with 72 possessions,” says Merril. “The game should have been much higher scoring than it was.”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16


Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back some of this week’s Sweet 16 matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets this March.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4, 138.5)

Wildcats’ big backcourt vs. Cardinals’ small guards

Kentucky has an NBA-ready backcourt with three guards – Andrew and Aaron Harrison and James Young – all standing 6-foot-6. That backcourt trio has produced 39.4 points per game – over 52 percent of the Wildcats total offense.

That was the case when UK took down Louisville in late December. The Harrisons and Young combined for 46 of Kentucky’s 73 points. The Cardinals starting backcourt features 5-foot-11 Chris Jones and 6-foot Russ Smith, and has 6-foot-1 Terry Rozier and 6-foot-5 Wayne Blackshear coming off the bench. Smith scored 19 points in the loss to UK but battled for every one of those points.

Dayton Flyers vs. Stanford Cardinal (-3, 132.5)

Flyers’ depth vs. Cardinal’s short bench

One of the key reasons Dayton was able to withstand Syracuse in the Round of 32 was the Flyers’ ability to dig deep down the bench and get quality production from their reserves. Head coach Archie Miller went with an 11-man rotation and got 14 points, three assists, and eight rebounds from his reserves. Getting his starters a blow isn’t anything new to Miller, who has constantly called upon his bench to step up this season.

Stanford doesn’t have that luxury. The Cardinal only look to one or two reserves to shoulder any serious minutes, using four players off the pine in the win over Kansas but just one of them – John Gage – logging any real time (17 minutes, four points). At this point in the tournament, with compressed games, travel time and the draining media blitz, teams need a little reserve in the tank.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Tennessee Volunteers (+2.5, 134)

Wolverines’ 3-point shooting vs. Volunteers’ interior defense

Much has been made of Tennessee’s defense during this improbable run to the Sweet 16. The Volunteers have limited their three NCAA opponents to 65 points per game (season lows for each Iowa, UMass and Mercer), thanks in part to their length and ability to pack the paint and limit second-chance looks. But, UT faces a completely new breed of foe in the Sweet 16.

Michigan has the shooting touch from outside to stretch the Vols defense, coming into the Round of 16 as the best 3-point shooting team left in the tournament, knocking down 39.8 percent of their attempts (sixth in the country) and averaging 8.6 3-pointers made a game. Tennessee’s opponents were nowhere near as lethal as Michigan, combining to shoot just 15 for 49 (30.6%) over those three games. The Vols also didn’t see any teams as sharp as the Wolverines from beyond in arc in SEC play.

UCLA Bruins vs. Florida Gators (-4.5, 137)

Bruins’ fear of Florida vs. Gators’ mental edge

Bruins backers have been preparing for the worst since Selection Sunday when it was revealed UCLA would be joining No. 1 overall seed Florida in the South Regional. There is a history of violence between these two college hoops powers, a one-sided history in which Florida continually dashes the Bruins’ national title hopes.

Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke explored the recent dealings between UCLA and Florida, in which the Gators have eliminated the Bruins three times in the past eight NCAA tournaments by a combined 34 points in those games. Florida dropped UCLA in the national title game, the Final Four and the Round of 32 in that span and comes into Thursday’s Sweet 16 meeting with a decisive mental edge.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo:Thursday's six-pack

-- Pacers 84, Heat 83-- Indiana has a two-game lead for #1 seed in East.

-- 31-39 Atlanta Hawks still have a two-game lead for the 8th/last playoff splot in the East. They're 31-39. Amazing.

-- Dallas is 43-29 and right now would miss the playoffs. Oy.

-- SMU 67, Cal 65-- Trip to NYC will help Mustangs' recruiting.

-- Florida State 78, Louisiana Tech 75-- Will Michael White leave Tech?

-- Siena 61, Illinois State 49-- Saints face Fresno State in CBI final.

*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Random stuff on another cold day

13) So Steve Masiello never graduated from college; and South Florida pulled its job offer to him. Masiello never resigned from Manhattan, which puts the Jaspers in a weird position- do they bring him back, or fire him with cause, let him go after another job? He'd probably leave next year, anyway.

12) What would you do if you ran Manhattan? Masiello is a good coach, but he obviously has no intention of being at Manhattan long-term, and he lied on his resume, which to me isn't a huge deal, but its not nothing. Tough call.

11) Meanwhile, USF paid Stan Heath $1.5M to go away, then they paid a search committee $60,000 to find a new candidate, leaked that they hired the candidate before the background check was done, and now look stupid and are without a coach. No wonder they never win.

11) This is similar to the George O’Leary debacle at Notre Dame, when no one in administration had the onions to stand up and say the guy is a very good coach and despite making this mistake, he is our coach going forward. The world has become too politically correct. Now we’ll see who they hire; wonder if this eliminates the rest of the Pitino coaching tree.

10) If I'm the AD at Wake Forest, I call Manhattan, offer to take Masiello off their hands; they won't hire a better coach than him, then make sure he gets his diploma, the way Eddie Jordan is at Rutgers. Problem solved.

9) Baseball season starting Monday will be like seeing old friends again for the first time in six months; the MLB Extra Innings package is some of the best money I spend all year.

Looking forward to watching the A’s every night, but also enjoy broadcast crews with Arizona, the Mets, Marlins, Royals, Padres and Giants. With Avasail Garcia/Jose Abreu on my fantasy team, going to have to learn to like Hawk Harrelson again, too; either that or hit the mute button and play music.

8) Will be interesting if Phil Jackson decides the Knicks’ best course going forward is without Carmelo Anthony and his 23-44 career playoff record.

7) Ralph Wilson paid $25,000 for the Buffalo Bills in 1959; they’re worth around $800M now. Will be a sad day if the next owner of the team moves them out of western New York.

6) Mavericks beat Oklahoma City in OT Tuesday night; Thunder was +13 in the 27:00 Derek Fisher was on the floor, -22 in the 26:00 he was on the bench. Nick Collison (+5) was the only other Thunder player who was plus in the game.

5) Over last three NCAA tournaments, #1 seeds are 5-5 SU in this round, 2-8 vs spread.

4) Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is 1-4 in this round, with underdogs covering all five games; his lone win was over NC State nine years ago.

3) Three SEC teams that made the NCAAs are 7-0, which has SEC fans chirping; however their four teams in the NIT all lost in second round. Not as important, but it shows the lack of depth the league has.

2) Bryce Harper got thrown out of a spring training game Wednesday for arguing a call at first base on a grounder he hit to second. I’m guessing that instant replay will result in less ejections, right?

1) Thursday's circus will be Johnny Manziel's pro day at Texas A&M; hell, George W Bush is going to be there. ESPN might implode today. LOL

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

THURSDAY, MARCH 27

Game 809-810: UCLA vs. Florida (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 68.175; Florida 77.170
Dunkel Line: Florida by 9; 129
Vegas Line: Florida by 4 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-4 1/2); Under

Game 811-812: Dayton vs. Stanford (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 62.336; Stanford 68.385
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 6; 136
Vegas Line: Stanford by 3; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-3); Over

Game 813-814: Baylor vs. Wisconsin (7:47 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 74.404; Wisconsin 74.310
Dunkel Line: Even; 140
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 3 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+3 1/2); Over

Game 815-816: San Diego State vs. Arizona (10:17 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 68.836; Arizona 78.112
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 117
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7 1/2); Under

Game 817-818: Towson at Murray State (10:17 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 54.903; Murray State 60.713
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 6; 144
Vegas Line: Murray State by 4; 147
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-4); Under


FRIDAY, MARCH 28

Game 875-876: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.610; Iowa State 72.616
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 1 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-1 1/2); Over

Game 877-878: Michigan State vs. Virginia (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.838; Virginia 73.158
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2); Under

Game 879-880: Tennessee at Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 70.456; Michigan 76.396
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 6; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2); Over

Game 881-882: Kentucky vs. Louisville (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.430; Louisville 73.049
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 27

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UCLA (28 - 8) vs. FLORIDA (34 - 2) - 3/27/2014, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 105-76 ATS (+21.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 65-39 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
UCLA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
UCLA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UCLA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
UCLA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
UCLA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DAYTON (25 - 10) vs. STANFORD (23 - 12) - 3/27/2014, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
DAYTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
DAYTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DAYTON is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BAYLOR (26 - 11) vs. WISCONSIN (28 - 7) - 3/27/2014, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 120-87 ATS (+24.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO ST (31 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (32 - 4) - 3/27/2014, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
ARIZONA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 92-63 ATS (+22.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TOWSON ST (25 - 10) at MURRAY ST (20 - 11) - 3/27/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MURRAY ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all home games this season.
MURRAY ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
MURRAY ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
TOWSON ST is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, March 28

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CONNECTICUT (28 - 8) vs. IOWA ST (28 - 7) - 3/28/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA ST is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
IOWA ST is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (28 - 8) vs. VIRGINIA (30 - 6) - 3/28/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (24 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (27 - 8) - 3/28/2014, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 102-69 ATS (+26.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (26 - 10) vs. LOUISVILLE (31 - 5) - 3/28/2014, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 27

UCLA vs. Florida, 9:45 ET
UCLA: 7-0 ATS in all tournament games
Florida: 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 110 points or less

Dayton vs. Stanford, 7:15 ET
Dayton: 8-2 ATS as an underdog
Stanford: 48-21 UNDER after scoring 60 points or less

Baylor vs. Wisconsin, 7:45 ET
Baylor: 8-1 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread
Wisconsin: 11-3 OVER after having won 8 or more of their last 10

San Diego State vs. Arizona, 10:15 ET
San Diego State: 10-2 ATS on road when playing only their 2nd game in a week
Arizona: 6-15 ATS on road after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers


Fri. March, 28

Connecticut vs. Iowa State, 7:25 ET
Connecticut: 14-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less
Iowa State: 2-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive over

Michigan State vs. Virginia, 9:55 ET
Michigan State: 12-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite
Virginia: 26-46 ATS in March games

Tennessee vs. Michigan, 7:15 ET
Tennessee: 32-52 ATS in all tournament games
Michigan: 19-8 ATS in a post-season tournament game

Kentucky vs. Louisville, 9:45 ET
Kentucky: 8-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5
Louisville: 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points