The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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'Boys, Bears clash on MNF

December 9, 2013


Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -1.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -2 & 49.5

The Cowboys set their sights on the NFC East crown while the Bears try to keep their playoff hopes alive when the teams collide on Monday night.

Dallas defeated the Raiders 31-24 on Thanksgiving Day despite being down two touchdowns late in the second quarter. Chicago was saddled with a 23-20 road loss against the Vikings in overtime, making the team 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) in its past six games.

The Bears have yet to cover a spread at home this year (0-5-1 ATS), while the Cowboys are 2-4 SU on the road, but a solid 4-2 ATS. These teams last met in Dallas last season where Chicago won 34-18 as a 3-point underdog, picking off Tony Romo five times in the victory. That made this series an even 5-5 split (SU and ATS) in the past 10 meetings.

Both clubs have negative betting trends working against them.

The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS (30%) in road games after outrushing their opponent by 75+ yards in their previous game since 1992. But over the past two seasons, Chicago is 2-11 ATS (15%) in games where the line is +3 to -3.

The big injury story in this game is Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (ankle) who is out, while the Cowboys will get a huge boost with top LB Sean Lee (hamstring) set to return after missing the past two games. The Cowboys appeared to be in trouble against the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day before QB Tony Romo (3,140 passing yards, 7.1 YPA, 24 TD, 7 INT) began to throw all over the Oakland defense. Romo went 23-of-32 for 225 yards and a touchdown, and constantly had the Cowboys in the red zone in the second half.

RB DeMarco Murray (697 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 7 TD) was able to cash in on those opportunities as he rushed for 63 yards and three touchdowns. Backup RB Lance Dunbar (150 rush yards, 5.0 YPC) also rushed 12 times for 82 yards before being injured (knee) and lost for the season. This was a welcomed change from the pass-happy attack Dallas has shown all year, where the team ranks 15th in the NFL in passing yards (243 YPG) and 27th in rushing offense (85 YPG). The Cowboys offense has still be able to find ways to score though, with 27.4 PPG this season (3rd in NFL).

They will need to step their defense up, however, as they are allowing a league-worst 422 total YPG, broken down between 295 passing YPG (2nd-worst in NFL) and 127 rushing YPG (27th in NFL). Dallas also ranks 28th in the league in red zone efficiency (62% TD rate) and 27th in third-down defense (41% efficiency). The return of LB Sean Lee should immediately help the struggling defense get on track.

Chicago lost a heart-breaker in Minnesota last week that could’ve really gone a long way in helping the club make the playoffs.

The Bears should be fine with Josh McCown playing excellent football for Chicago. He has thrown for 1,461 yards (7.9 YPA) this season with nine touchdowns and just one interception.

He also has two exceptional receivers in WRs Brandon Marshall (990 rec. yards, 9 TD) and Alshon Jeffery (1,109 rec. yards, 5 TD), who is coming off a mammoth 249-yard performance with 2 TD in Minnesota. The Bears are passing for 272 YPG (6th in NFL) while allowing just 232 passing YPG (14th in NFL).

Their big problem, however, comes stopping the run. They have allowed an NFL-worst 154 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC, but the red-zone defense has been pretty good (50%, T-10th in NFL). Despite this efficiency, Chicago is still allowing 27.7 PPG (5th-most in league).

RB Matt Forte will need to have an effective game for the Bears to come away with this one. He has been one of the best running backs in football this season with 971 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and seven touchdowns. He has also added 58 receptions for 445 yards and a touchdown in the passing game.

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular, least popular picks in the LVH Super Contest, where 1,034 contestants pick five games each week of the NFL season........they paid $1,500 each to be in this contest, by the way.

Most pop. (31-50-3 vs spread)

1) Saints 282 - W
2) Chargers 270 - W
T3) Saints 259 - W
T3) 49ers 259 - L
5) Chiefs 249 - W
6) Eagles 229 - W

Least popular (43-39-2)

30) Falcons 68 - W
29) Browns 69 - W
28) Packers 75 - L
27) Bills 89 - L
26) Dolphins 102 - W
25) Broncos 106 - W


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday.......

14) Chiefs 45, Redskins 10-- Washington didn't look like an NFL team in this game, they looked a team that has quit on the season. Chiefs scored two special teams TDs, had TD drives of 13-25-41 yards. Weren't lot of fans left in the stands whewn the secind half started.

13) Ravens 29, Vikings 26-- Game was 12-7 Minnesota with 3:00 left, then five TDs scored in the last 2:05, one of the craziest stretches in league history. Seemed like once the snow stopped, the defense couldn't do anything on the slick field and there were big plays all over the place. Over the last 50 years, 36 points in the last 2:20 of the 4th quarter is 12 more than any other NFL game. It really was weird to watch.

12) Patriots 27, Browns 26-- Cleveland gagged away a 26-14 lead with 2:00 left, as Patriots scored twice in 0:30, recovering an onside kick. Over their last six games, New England has been outscored by 47 points in first half, but then averaged 26.5 ppg in second half, winning five of the six games.

11) Jets 37, Raiders 27-- Jets were even in turnovers, so they won; in their six wins, Gang Green is +1 in turnovers- they're -19 in seven losses. Jets also blocked a punt for a TD. You watch the Raiders play and wonder what their plan is for the future, or if they even have one.

10) Bengals 42, Colts 28-- No turnovers, no sacks, not lot of defense in this game; underrated stat-- Cincinnati won/covered all six of its home games this season. Over their last six games (3-3), Colts were outscored 113-24 in first half, but they clinched AFC South when Titans lost, so they can rest up.

9) Eagles 34, Lions 20-- Mystified why several inches of snow was never cleared off field at this game; Detroit led 14-0 with 5:00 left in third quarter, but once snow stopped, Eagles ran 25 plays for 361 yards on their last five drives, all TDs. Not often a team scores TDs on both punt/kick returns and still loses. Detroit is minus-15 in turnovers in its last six games.

8) Dolphins 34, Steelers 28-- If Miami makes playoffs, Joe Philbin better be Coach of the Year, with all the BS he's put up with this year. Under had been 5-0-1 in Dolphins' last six games, but on a cruddy day, Miami ran ball for 181 yards with an OL thats been better without Incognito/Martin.

7) Buccaneers 27, Bills 6-- Tampa Bay won four of last five games, covered five of last six, with only loss at Carolina. Teams combined to convert 5-26 on 3rd down; Bucs only completed 9-25 passes, but Buffalo turned ball over five times. Not many teams win with five turnovers and six points.

6) Broncos 51, Titans 28-- Denver averages 25.1 ppg at home this year, just in the second half- this was the 4th home game this year Broncos scored 30+ points in second half, as thin air in Mile High altitude takes its toll. Titans were -12 in field position, -2 in turnovers- you need to win those categories to beat a team thats better than you.

Denver's Matt Prater kicked a 64-yard FG, breaking the all-time record, but at altitude, still not as impressive as Dempsey's 63-yarder at Tulane Stadium.

5) Cardinals 30, Rams 10-- Credit to Arizona for its improvement this year, but I buy Sunday Ticket to watch Rams' games and I can no longer stand to watch Kellen Clemens play- he just isn't very good. Why not let young QB Austin Davis play a little, maybe he's good? If he isn't, then he's no different than Clemens. On the bright side, Rams have the Redskins #1 pick in April.

4) Chargers 37, Giants 14-- Eli Manning has two Super Bowl rings, is 0-3 against team that drafted him; I'm sure he's happy with his career, but Giants fell behind Redskins 14-0 last week, a signal that they're not preparing well, which was confirmed in this game. San Diego is very hard to figure out.

3) 49ers 19, Seahawks 17-- Niners kicked four FGs, threw pick in red zone, yet still won game they needed lot more than Seattle, which was travelling on a short week after whipping Saints. In two games with Seattle, Kaepernick is 28-57 passing; 49ers have one TD, three FGs in five drives into red zone.

2) Packers 22, Falcons 21-- Green Bay trailed 21-10 at half, held Falcons scoreless in second half, and are still alive at 6-6-1, thanks to sloppy play in Detroit/Chicago. This was their first win without Rodgers; they finish with Cowboys-Steelers-Bears, will need #12 back to win division.

1) Saints 31, Panthers 13-- Carolina kicked FGs on first two drives; hard to win in Superdome kicking FGs; Panthers' last loss was Week 5 at Arizona, also in a dome. Saints visit Charlotte in two weeks, for an outdoor game.

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NFL

Monday, December 9

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Monday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Bears
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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1, 48)

The margin for error is slim for the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, who meet Monday night with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. The host Bears can't afford a third straight loss, as they trail Detroit by a game in the NFC North and lost both head-to-head meetings with the Lions. The Cowboys have won two straight and are tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East.

The Cowboys bolstered their playoff chances with a 31-24 win over Oakland on Thanksgiving, but they haven't had much luck in December - a month when quarterback Tony Romo is 11-15 as a starter. "It all comes with the dinner," Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters of the criticism of his quarterback. "He's got a position that is one of the great jobs on the planet. What comes with that is some of the scrutiny, and he understands that." The Bears won 34-18 last year in Dallas, intercepting Romo five times and taking two of them back for touchdowns.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at +1.5 and after some back and forth, the number has settled at +1. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high teens with a 12 mph wind blowing across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3) - Chicago (0) + home field (-3) = pk

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-5, 8-4 ATS): Dallas' playoff chances seemed slim after a 49-17 pummeling by New Orleans in Week 10, but the Cowboys have eked out close wins the past two weeks. The ground game has come to life with DeMarco Murray scoring a career-high three touchdowns against the Raiders, and that's likely to be a focus against the Bears' league-worst run defense. The defense has to be better in December, as the Cowboys rank last in the league in total yards allowed (421.6) and 22nd in scoring defense (25.3).

ABOUT THE BEARS (6-6, 2-9-1 ATS): Chicago's hopes of an NFC North title took a hit when Robbie Gould missed a potential game-winning field goal in a 23-20 overtime loss at Minnesota last week. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been ruled out for Sunday, meaning Josh McCown will make his fourth straight start and his fifth in six games. The defense has struggled, especially against the run, and linebacker Lance Briggs will miss his sixth straight game with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday night games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bears last five versus a team with a wining record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo has passed for 300 yards in all three games against Chicago.

2. Chicago RB Matt Forte needs 29 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth time in his career.

3. McCown has passed for 1,461 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception and boasts a 103.6 rating.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 9

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Tale of the tape: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
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Dallas travel to Chicago for a Monday night matchup with two teams struggling defensively. The Bears playoff hopes are still alive and the Cowboys try to hang on to the NFC's 4th seed.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Cowboys suffered a tough loss last week with Lance Dunbar out for the season. The Cowboys are ranked 3rd in the NFL with 27.4 points per game and 15th in passing yards at 243.3. Tony Romo has completed 64.8 percent of his passes with a ratio of 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. The Cowboys have not been very good rushing the ball ranking 27th. They have not attempted a single 4th down this year, and are only completing 35 percent of their 3rd down conversion attempts.

Led by Josh McCown, the Bears come in to Week 14 ranking 5th in total points scored with 26.9. McCown has completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a ratio of 9 TD to 1 INT. The Bears are ranked 8th in the league in total yards and have receiver Alshon Jeffery comes off a career best performance last week with 12 receptions for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeffery has had a consistent year and alongside Brandon Marshall, the Cowboys secondary could be in for a very long day. When they are not throwing the ball, Chicago still has Matt Forte in the backfield having a great year, only 29 yards short of his fourth 1000 yard rushing season.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Defense

The Cowboys defense come in to Week 14 allowing the most yards in the NFL per game with 421.6. The Cowboys defense are 8th in the league in total tackles (622) despite their inability to pressure quarterbacks and get sacks. The Cowboys have struggled giving up 126.7 rushing yards per game and are ranked 30th in total passing yards per game allowing 294.9. In a 3week span, the Cowboys have given up over 600 yards of offense in games to the Lions and Saints.

The Bears defense are ranked 14th in the NFL against the pass and dead last against the run. Without Lance Briggs, Chicago will continue to struggle bringing pressure and getting sacks. The Bears defense have allowed the most runs of 20 or more yards in the NFL with 15. The Bears have been great at forcing fumbles ranking 2nd in the league with 19 forced fumbles and 8 recovered. The Bears defense have 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns ranking them 1st overall.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Special Teams

The Cowboys special teams unit have allowed only five returns longer than 30 yards. Dwyane Harris is 2nd in the NFL in averaging 31.3 average yards per kickoff return and 2nd with 14 average yards per punt return. Harris has a return for 90 yards and has been a lethal weapon for the Cowboys. Harris is questionable for Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. Kicker Dan Bailey is 19/21 in field goals made with a long of 53 yards. Bailey is a perfect 6/6 in field goals made from 40 - 49 yards.

The Bears have started 18 drives inside their 20, the second most inside the 20 drives In the league. The Bears lead the NFL with seven returns of less than 10 yards. They have allowed a league low 12 returns for 109 yards. Kicker Robbie Gould has made 21/24 field goals with a long of 58.

Edge: Chicago Bears


Notable Quotable

"I think it's real," Jones said. "I don't mean to be trite, but you can probably tie that to why we have had disappointments in December. In this time of the NFL, it's hard to build up enough edge to play at that level during December, so you'd better be having your arrow going up rather than going down. – Jerry Jones on the Cowboys 25-41 record in December.

“It still is a great franchise. You grew up watching those guys and knew how great their defenses are,” Murray said. “They have a lot of pride, Monday night game, so definitely don’t take anything for granted. I know they’re going to be ready to play.” – DeMarco Murray on the Chicago Bears defense.

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Monday night weather report: High winds in Chicago

There will be high winds in the Windy City, when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on Monday night.

Chicago will live up to it's namesake as there will be a blustery 14 mile per hour wind blowing across the field at kickoff. There won't be any snow in Chicago, after what was a blizzard filled weekend in the NFL, but it will be freezing. The temperature at kickoff will be around 17 degrees.

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Monday, December 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:40 PM ET Chicago -1.5 500 *****

Chicago - Under 49 500 *****

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Record number of points produces 11-5 NFL Over/Under

Throw everything you know about handicapping winter weather out the window – if you don’t mind opening the window in this kind of cold.

Old Man Winter ravaged a number of Week 14 games but couldn’t freeze out the NFL’s red-hot offenses, with 90 touchdowns being scored during Sunday’s 14 games. Add to that Jacksonville’s 27-20 win over Houston Thursday and Chicago’s 45-28 blowout over Dallas Monday and there were 859 total points scored – the most in any week in NFL history.

All those points added up to an 11-5 Over/Under record for Week 14.

The only games that played Under the total were Tampa Bay’s 27-6 win over Buffalo, Green Bay’s 22-21 victory versus Atlanta, Arizona’s 30-10 win against St. Louis and New Orleans’ one-sided 31-13 victory over Carolina Sunday night.

The Packers’ home win was the only game of those four that was played in the cold but didn’t see nearly as much snow as games played outdoors on the East Coast. Detroit, Washington, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all had substantial snow fall before and during the games, but all tipped the total. Those four games combined to score 226 total points.

Denver Broncos head coach John Fox, who had to battle the chilly Mile High weather but no snow Sunday, told the media that the slippery conditions don’t handicap an offense but actually help it. The winter weather helped kick returners give coverage the slip, with five return touchdowns scored in those snow games Sunday.

"Some people don't understand that," Fox told USA Today. "That's why you saw a lot of those long touchdowns, particularly in the kicking game, as well, as when guys can't get their footing, they miss tackles, and that creates explosive plays."

That eruption of offense in Week 14 hasn’t done much to sway the oddsmakers’ methods for setting the NFL Over/Under in Week 15. Only a handful of totals are sitting in the 50s with a few dropping as low as 40.5 points.

And the weather is a little better for Sunday’s action. Only two games – Chicago at Cleveland and Seattle at New York – have snow in the forecast.

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Close Calls - Week 14

December 10, 2013


NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 14 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

Baltimore Ravens (-5½) 29, Minnesota Vikings 26 (41½): Leading 12-7 early in the fourth quarter the Vikings were in a safe position for the underdog cover and those on the ‘under’ or the moneyline had to feel confident before one of the wildest finishes in NFL history. Baltimore found the end zone with 2:05 to play to take a 15-12 lead but just 38 seconds later Toby Gerhart broke a long run to put the Vikings back up by four. The kickoff to Jacoby Jones was then run all the way back for touchdown to Baltimore back on top. With the Vikings getting the ball back a short screen pass turned into a 79-yard touchdown for Cordarrelle Patterson as Minnesota led by four again with just 45 seconds to play, with that touchdown putting the game ‘over’ the total. An interception appeared to end the game but Baltimore was bailed out by a suspect pass interference penalty and the Ravens were out of timeouts and down to the Minnesota nine-yard line with 10 seconds left. Joe Flacco found rookie Marlon Brown in the back of the end zone and Brown just narrowly got his toes down in an incredibly close call with the end line, a play that withstood review.

New England Patriots (-9½) 27, Cleveland Browns 26 (47½): Those backing the underdog Browns still won but this was another game where the total improbably shifted late and Cleveland somehow failed to cash heavy underdog moneyline tickets. Cleveland scored a touchdown with less than three minutes to go to lead by 12, leaving the total at just 40 with the number at 47½ by kickoff. It did not take long for the Patriots to get in the end zone but they still trailed by five. Incredibly New England was able to pick up the expected onside kick. The Patriots lucked into nearly 30 yards on a borderline pass interference call and a play later New England had taken the lead 27-26, pushing the game ‘over’ in the process as well. The Patriots did not get the two-point conversion and Cleveland nearly rallied for the win as Jason Campbell put the Browns in position for a final kick but the 58-yard kick fell just short despite being right on line.

Philadelphia (-3) 34, Detroit Lions 20 (53): With heavy snow in Philadelphia the total on this game dropped before game time and with just 20 points through three quarters and several inches of snow built up, the ‘under’ certainly looked safe. Detroit needed to maintain its lead in the NFC North and they had a 14-0 lead late in the third quarter that eventually slipped to just 14-6 before the start of the fourth quarter in a game where kicking was not an option. Both teams scored touchdowns in the first minute of the fourth quarter as the Lions still led by six but the Eagles poured it on late with 20 points in about a 10 minute span led by a few big runs from LeSean McCoy who wound up with 217 yards. Backup running back Chris Polk ran 38 yards for a touchdown with less than three minutes to go for the score that tilted the game ‘over’ despite the poor conditions and the slow start.

Miami Dolphins (+3) 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 28 (41½): With a Troy Polamalu interception return touchdown the Steelers had a 21-17 lead halfway through the third quarter with two touchdowns in 53 seconds. Miami answered with a touchdown to go back up by three but the Steelers took the lead back early in the fourth quarter. There were four consecutive punts as the clock wound down but Miami broke a 55-yard run to get into the red zone with less than three minutes to go, eventually cashing in with the go-ahead touchdown. Down three with time running down the Steelers had to eventually go for it on 4th and 10 but they failed to convert and made matters worse with a personal foul penalty. Miami did its best to burn some clock but they had to settle for a field goal, keeping the Steelers within six and within one score. Pittsburgh had just a minute to go and no timeouts and on the final play of the game the Steelers completed several laterals and eventually found Antonio Brown with some room on the sidelines. Brown sprinted up the field and appeared to go in for the score but he was ruled to have just stepped out of bounds at the 12 yard line to end the game. The play might not have withstood review with one of the passes looking suspiciously forward but the Steelers just missed an incredible finish as Miami took a big step in the playoff chase.

Denver Broncos (-12½) 51, Tennessee Titans 28 (50½): The Titans led 21-10 early in this game with a promising start for the huge underdog on the road. Denver scored 24 points consecutively to get past the spread late in the third quarter however. Justin Hunter scored on a big play for the Titans to trim the margin back to six points heading into the fourth quarter. Denver took over in the fourth quarter putting all the cold weather talk to bed as Peyton Manning added to his huge statistical season. Denver scored 17 points in the final frame to pull away as the Broncos had a massive yardage edge of over double what the Titans posted in the game.

San Francisco 49ers (-2½) 19, Seattle Seahawks 17 (41½): In this tense NFC West clash Seattle took a 14-9 lead with a big play in the passing game late in the third quarter but in the final seconds of the quarter San Francisco was back on top by two, just short of the common spread on the game. The Seahawks added a short field goal with just six minutes to go in the game to take the lead by one. On 1st down after picking up a key 3rd and short, Frank Gore broke loose for the 49ers, seemingly headed to the end zone before going down seemingly on his own accord at the Seattle 18-yard line. Whether intentional or not, ut proved to be a smart play to help the 49ers win the game but those on the 49ers laying -2½ sensed doom as San Francisco carefully used the clock and forced Seattle to exhaust its timeouts. San Francisco converted a key 3rd down conversion to burn more time and then settled for a 22-yard kick to win the game, leaving Seattle with just 26 seconds. Russell Wilson went for it all on 1st down and wound up with an interception as the Seattle receiver dove trying to sell an interference call.

Green Bay Packers (-3½) 22, Atlanta Falcons 21 (47½): The Falcons had an interception return touchdown right before halftime to lead 21-10 and while the Packers moved the ball well in the third quarter they wound up with only six points on two short field goals, still trailing by five heading into the fourth. Early in the final frame the Packers found the end zone but missed on the two-point try, leaving a one point lead but still with over 12 minutes to go. The Falcons would miss a 52-yard field goal try a few minutes later and then on the next drive they opted to go for it on 4th down instead of a 51-yard field goal attempt with just two minutes to go in the game. They came up short and while the Falcons would get still another chance with the ball late in the game an interception ended the threat and this was the lone cold weather game Sunday that managed to stay ‘under’ the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats

December 11, 2013


Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Coaching Down the Stretch

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.

It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.

From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread)

BEST

Home: Ron Rivera (Carolina) 4-1

Away: Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) 5-1

Favorite: John Fox (Denver) 16-9-1

Underdog: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) 7-0

WORST

Home: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 2-4

Away: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) 1-4

Favorite: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 1-5

Underdog: Andy Reid (Kansas City) 2-4

Pennzoil Play

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in CFB and 8-10 in the NFL.

This week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.

Passing Fancy

Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.

Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2 yards per game
New Orleans 302.8
Detroit 296.5
San Diego 288.7
Chicago 276.8
Atlanta 267.8
Pittsburgh 266.8
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4

Worst Pass Defenses
Philadelphia 285.3
Minnesota 281.9
Denver 274.3
Washington 256.7
Jacksonville 256.5
Detroit 255.8
NY Jets 254.9
Oakland 250.2
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8

Red Rover, Red Rover

Despite the Sunday snowstorm in the NFL last week, they did it again.

We’re talking about the wildly successful ‘OVER’ plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games going 'over' the number.

The average games went ‘OVER’ by +8.9 points. It was easily the highest scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TD’s per games).

Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for ‘OVER’ players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 ‘OVER’ in these games, including 23-4 ‘OVER’ the last seven weeks.

This week’s non-conference situations are:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

College Football Bowl Stat of The Week

Texas Tech was 0-5 both SU and ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder, with Week 15 approaching.......

-- Broncos covered 11 of their last 14 home games.

-- Chiefs covered once in last ten games as a divisional favorite.

-- Vikings covered eight of last ten as a home underdog.

-- Carolina covered seven of its last eight home games.

-- Cowboys are 6-18 in their last 24 games as a home favorite.

-- Minnesota covered eight of its last ten as a home underdog.


*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud..........

13) Joe Torre gets in Hall of Fame off his 1,173-767 record and four titles managing the Bronx Bombers, so he deserves it, but lets not get confused and call him a great manager. Here are his records with four other teams, where he won three division titles and no pennants in 15 seasons:

-- Mets 286-420-- Not exactly Cooperstown material there.
-- Braves 257-229, Won NL West in 1982.
-- Cardinals 351-354-- No playoff appearances.
-- Dodgers 259-227-- Two division titles in the ill-fated McCourt era.

Torre was also a very good player, a .297 hitter with 252 homers (he hit .363 one year), so he deserves his plaque, but not like he ever turned around a losing program—he just managed a team with enormous financial advantages and led them to four titles. Hall of Fame worthy, but not as tough as making losers into winners, as others have done.

12) Once again, no bowl games between Pac-12-SEC. In 1989, Washington beat Florida 34-7 in the Freedom Bowl in Anaheim; since then, the BCS title game three years ago (Auburn-Oregon) is only bowl matchup between the two leagues. In 24 years. Very strange.

11) How on God’s green earth is Oregon State in a bowl? They’re 6-6, lost to I-AA Eastern Washington, allowed 37.2 ppg while losing their last five games,-- not only do they get a bowl game, they get to go to the Hawai’I Bowl?!?!?! And Western Kentucky sits home? Nice system.

10) First instinct was to whine a little when I read Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson quickly bolted the MAC champs for Wake Forest, but the reality of the situation is this: Not only is this finals week and bowl season, it is recruiting season, from now until February 4. Very important.

So the coach at Wake Forest has to recruit his ass off to make the Deacons relevant; Jim Grobe is a really good coach who couldn’t keep Wake's head above water. Clawson has to recruit, hire a staff and try to revive a program at one of the smallest schools in America playing bigtime football- if he took the job, he had to hit the ground running and so he will. Good luck, it’s a very hard job. If I were him, would’ve tried for the UConn job instead.

9) Damn, must’ve been some serious dysfunction in Seattle last summer, as heads butt over the new school/old school approach to evaluating baseball players. You read some quotes now and people are still carping about the Mariners' front office and what went on last year; they’ve got two big-time stars in King Felix and Cano.

Curious to see who they surround those two with.

8) Rudy Gay makes $18M a year, from everything you read is a really good player, but now he’s been traded twice in 11 months, albeit Toronto traded for him, then changed GMs and the new GM obviously doesn’t think as highly of him.

Memphis/Toronto are two new school teams who are leaning on metrics more than most; must be that Gay doesn’t rate highly under that microscope. All I know is Lionel Hollins went 56-26 in Memphis LY, even after they took a loss on Gay’s trade to Toronto; why hasn’t he gotten another job?

7) NFL moved 8:25 Patriots-Ravens game in Week 16 to a 4:25 game, and put the 1:00 Bears-Eagles game into primetime, so if you have Iggles’ season tickets, buy some TheraFlu, prepare to spend Christmas sneezing.

6) Rams are 5-4 this year when game goes over the total, 0-4 when it stays under; they’ve scored five TDs on defense/special teams in their last three wins. St Louis is +14 in turnovers in their five wins, -7 in eight losses.

5) Buccaneers had weird start to season; they were even in turnovers in each of their first six games. In their last six games, Bucs are +14 in turnovers, which is why they’ve won four of last five and covered five of last six.

4) For fans of irony, look no farther than the Las Vegas Bowl, where USC will play Fresno State, which is Lane Kiffin’s alma mater.

Best yet, I’ll be at this game; excited to see the Trojans in person, having rooted for them since I was a little kid. Trojans will be on their second interim coach of the year; will they be flat without emotional leader Ed Orgeron, who quit as interim coach once Steve Sarkisian got hired?

3) I'm a big believer that pro teams with sub-.500 records shouldn't make the playoffs. For instance the Celtics are 10-13 but lead in NBA's Atlantic Division- to me, they shouldn't qualify for playoffs unless they go at least 41-41. A more deserving team in the other conference should replace them. .

2) Redskins’ team doctor says RGIII is healthy; RGIII says RGIII is healthy. Washington coaches and anyone with a working set of eyes knows that he isn’t nearly as good a player as he was last year, healthy or not. His physical capabilities have obviously diminished.

Can’t they just bench him for cause? Is he giving his team its best chance to win? Very curious to see how he plays next year, more specifically how he runs, after a full winter of rehab.

1) There have been 208 NFL games so far this season: in only three of them has a team not punted for the whole game. Two of those three teams were playing the Cowboys that day.

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Chargers at Broncos

December 11, 2013


The Broncos play their final regular season game at Sports Authority Field on Thursday, but it definitely won't be the last home contest for Denver. The Chargers are in desperation mode at 6-7, entering Week 15 one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. San Diego needs a win in the worst way, but can it duplicate a strong home effort from this past Sunday?

The Lightning Bolts struck the Giants early and often in a 37-14 rout as three-point favorites in Week 14. San Diego jumped to a commanding 24-0 halftime lead thanks to three touchdown passes from Philip Rivers, while the Chargers' defense intercepted Eli Manning twice in the victory. The Chargers evened their home mark at 3-3, as Mike McCoy's team rebounded from a defeat to the Bengals one week earlier in a 17-10 setback.

Denver continued its home domination, in spite of falling behind Tennessee, 21-10 in the second quarter. The Broncos blitzed the Titans, 31-7 in the second half to record a 51-28 rout and easily cash as 13-point favorites. Peyton Manning attempted 59 passes, but found a way to throw four more touchdowns to increase his season total to 45, while hitting four different receivers for scores. Denver improved to 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home, as the Broncos went over the 40-point mark for the first time since a Week 8 blowout of Washington.

The last time the Broncos and Chargers faced off came in Week 10 at Qualcomm Stadium, as Denver came out with a 28-20 road triumph. The Broncos barely covered the seven-point number, in spite of building a 28-6 lead in the third quarter. Manning burned the Chargers' for four touchdowns, including a career-best three scores by wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Denver has beaten San Diego four straight times, including the last three since the arrival of Manning with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season.

The Chargers have been listed as a three-point underdog or more three times on the highway this season, resulting in a 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record. San Diego won outright as 7 ½-point 'dogs at Philadelphia in Week 2, while pulling off a solid divisional triumph at Kansas City in Week 12 in a 41-38 shootout victory. The lone straight-up defeat came in Week 3 at Tennessee, as the Chargers pushed as three-point underdogs in a 20-17 setback as the Titans scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Since the start of last season, the Broncos have put together a stellar 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS record at Sports Authority Field with the two losses coming to Houston last September and the heartbreaking defeat to Baltimore in the second round of the 2012 playoffs. The Broncos continue to be a machine to the 'over' at home, cashing in six of seven contests in Colorado this season.

Denver wide receiver Wes Welker has been ruled out of Thursday's matchup after suffering a concussion in the win over Tennessee, his second concussion of the season. Welker has scored just two touchdowns in the last seven games after finding the end zone eight times in the first six contests.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero gives San Diego a shot here on the road, "The Chargers have no room for error if they want to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff race, so expect a desperate football team to show up for this AFC West clash. Without Welker, Manning has one less option, but odds are good he'll be able to do plenty of damage against a porous defense. Fortunately, Rivers is capable of winning a shootout, and this may be the week where second-string tight end LaDarius Green re-emerges as a game-breaker. However it goes, San Diego has to do whatever it takes, even if that means giving Ryan Mathews a season-high in carries for the second week in a row."

Denver is listed as a 10 ½-point favorite on Thursday, as the Broncos have cashed three of four times this season when laying double-digits. The total sits between 56 and 57 depending on where you shop, as the first meeting finished 'under' 56. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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AFC West showdown

December 12, 2013


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-7) at DENVER BRONCOS (11-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -10.5 & 58
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -11 & 55.5

The Chargers try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a visit to the Broncos on Thursday night and facing a quarterback with the last name of Manning for the second straight week.

San Diego is coming off its largest win of the year, a 37-14 drubbing of Eli Manning's Giants, while Denver crushed the Titans 51-28, behind four touchdown passes from Peyton Manning, who now has 45 TD this year. Since joining the Broncos, Manning is 3-0 (2-1 ATS) versus the Chargers, throwing for 909 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT. This includes his 330 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in a 28-20 win in San Diego on Nov. 10. But Chargers QB Philip Rivers is also having a career year (26 TD, 9 INT), which has put his team in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 6-7, just one game behind Baltimore for the sixth playoff spot. Rivers' 244 passing YPG, 25 TD and 12 INT as a starter in this series with the Broncos is a big reason why his team is 9-6 SU (9-5-1 ATS) in the past 15 meetings. Denver is 13-3 ATS (81%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since Manning joined the team, but San Diego is 6-3 ATS (67%) in the final four weeks of the regular season since 2011. While the Chargers don't have any major injuries to cope with, the Broncos will likely be without WR Wes Welker (concussion), and have four others who are questionable in CB Champ Bailey (foot), OT Orlando Franklin (concussion), DE Derek Wolfe (illness) and WR/KR Trindon Holliday (shoulder).

The Chargers are a pedestrian 3-4 SU (3-3-1 ATS) on the road this year, but their offense has not been the issue with 24.6 PPG on 430 total YPG away from home. But the defense has allowed 24.4 PPG on 408 total YPG to host teams, while forcing just five turnovers in these seven contests. San Diego currently ranks fourth in the league in total offense (401 YPG) and passing offense (289 YPG), thanks to the second-highest time of possession (32:49). This has occurred because of a stellar third-down conversion rate of 48%, which ranks second in the NFL. But the Chargers are scoring only 24.3 PPG (T-11th in NFL) because of a poor red-zone offense (51% touchdown rate, 23rd in league). QB Philip Rivers has completed 70.3% of his passes this season for 3,882 yards (8.4 YPA), which includes a 72.3% completion rate and 8.8 YPA on the road. With the disruptive Broncos defense allowing just 55.8% completions to visiting quarterbacks this year, Rivers' accuracy will be key to his team sustaining drives and keeping Denver's offense on the sidelines. Rivers has plenty of weapons in the passing game with his top three targets all recording more than 60 receptions in WR Keenan Allen (902 rec. yards, 5 TD), TE Antonio Gates (776 rec. yards, 3 TD) and RB Danny Woodhead (534 rec. yards, 6 TD).

San Diego's ground game hasn't been great this season (112 YPG, 20th in NFL; 3.9 YPC, 23rd in league), but it has picked up over the past five games with 125 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC. Top RB Ryan Mathews (885 rush yards, 5 TD) has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his past eight games, including 103 yards in last week's win. Mathews had 59 yards on 14 carries (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown in the Week 10 loss to Denver. Defensively, San Diego has been horrible in all aspects, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per passing attempt, both of which rank 31st in the 32-team league. This has led to 383 total YPG allowed (28th in NFL) despite being on the field for just 27:37 (2nd-fewest in league). The team has also been subpar in both the red zone (61%, 25th in NFL) and on third downs (40%, 22nd in league), but has allowed just 22.4 PPG (T-11th in NFL). Another positive sign is that San Diego has generated seven takeaways over the past three games, and will need to win the turnover battle like in Week 10 to hang in with the best team in the AFC.

Denver's offense has been unbelievable this year, leading the NFL in points (39.6 PPG), yards (466 YPG), first downs (27.9 per game), third-down conversions (48%) and red-zone efficiency (79% touchdown rate). QB Peyton Manning has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but one game this year, piling up 800 yards and 9 TD passes in his past two contests. Although WR Wes Welker (778 rec. yards, 10 TD) is doubtful to play on Thursday, Manning still has plenty of options when he drops back. WR Demaryius Thomas (1,149 rec. yards, 11 TD) was the main man against the Chargers on Nov. 10 with 108 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while TE Julius Thomas (625 rec. yards, 11 TD) caught just three passes in the Week 10 meeting, but one of those was a 74-yard touchdown reception. WR Eric Decker (1,088 rec. yards, 8 TD) has been especially good over the past two games with a whopping 16 catches for 291 yards and 5 TD.

But the Broncos are not just a one-dimensional passing offense, as their ground game averages 124 YPG (12th in NFL) including 566 rushing yards (189 YPG) over the past three games. Top RB Knowshon Moreno (920 rush yards, 12 total TD) rushed for 65 yards (4.3 YPC) and gained another 49 yards through the air on eight receptions in the Week 10 win over San Diego. The offense has needed to carry this team, as Denver's defense has been subpar, ranking 25th in the league in both scoring defense (26.5 PPG) and total defense (374 YPG). The unit has been decent on third downs (37%, 14th in NFL), but has been porous in the red zone (62% touchdown rate, T-27th in league). Denver tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks last year, but has just 34 sacks this season (15th in NFL). Although the unit failed to force a turnover versus San Diego in Week 10, it has generated seven takeaways in the four games since.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 15

December 12, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #308) Tampa Bay +5 - Most don't realize that Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams in the league over the course of the last five weeks. The Buccaneers are eager to prove they can take on one of the best teams in the league in this stretch, and they have the Niners here for the taking. It's natural for San Fran to lay an egg after winning last week against the Seahawks. It's tough to come down off of that massive high, and the sharp bettors agree with that sentiment.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on San Francisco

(Rotation #317) Houston +5.5 - It's just a play that doesn't make any sense in the world. The oddsmakers don't hang numbers nearly as high on Houston as they would with some of the other bad teams in the league, so why? The Texans, for one, have lost seven consecutive games by seven points or fewer, so making them more than a touchdown underdog seems a bit crazy. Teams with interim coaches due to coaches being fired have covered five games in a row. Indy has little to play for after already clinching the AFC South, knowing that it really can't do better than the fourth seed in the conference at this point. It would be fitting if Houston ended its longest losing streak in franchise history against the Colts, a team which it has never beaten on the road.

Opening Line: Houston +6
Current Line: Houston +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #319) Buffalo -2 - It's not often we talk about favorites here on the sharp plays, but the Bills are definitely sharp. Why? Because Jacksonville makes a bunch of sense… almost too much sense. The Bills are coming off of two straight losses where they have turned the ball over a ton, and they really look like they have packed it in for the season. Jacksonville is flying high, and it is coming off of a win that had to feel like the Super Bowl against Houston. On top of that, the Jags have won four out of five, have played solid ball every week since their bye, and seem to have their acts together, and they had a long week of preparation for this one. Still, someone sees something in the Bills, because this line flat out isn't moving, and it's on a number where Jacksonville should be seeing a lot of action.

Opening Line: Buffalo -2
Current Line: Buffalo -2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Jacksonville

(Rotation #332) Pittsburgh +2.5 - We hate this play because Pittsburgh is literally always a public play. But in this case, the case for the playoff-bound Bengals is stronger than the case for the general public play known as the Steelers. Most figure that Pittsburgh has given up on the season, and that very well could be the case. Last season though, the Bengals spoiled the Steelers' season on their home field. Sharps are thinking that it might be time to repay the favor.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Cincinnati

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder, with Week 15 approaching.......

-- Chargers are 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road underdog.

-- Raiders covered 14 of last 19 as a divisional underdog.

-- Eagles covered three of last ten as a road favorite.

-- Jets covered twice in last eight away games.

-- Green Bay covered once in its last seven road games.

-- Washington covered once in its last seven road games.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13........

32) Texans—Hard to believe they haven’t won a game since Week 2, especially with double digit halftime leads at home vs Colts/Patriots. New coach inherits some talent, but who will the QB be?

31) Redskins—New coach will be Daniel Snyder’s 8th in 15 years; he will inherit a mess.

30) Bills—Always wonder how many Super Bowls they would’ve won if they had beaten the Giants in Tampa that year. Seems like an awful long time ago now, which it actually was. I had a lot of curly hair back then.

29) Raiders—Whats up with Terrelle Pryor? He was on the bench, then he was in the game Sunday, then he wasn’t; he isn’t a better prospect than the McGloin kid? Oy.

28) Browns—Before he retires, all of Jason Campbell’s bad luck in his career is going to reverse itself and he’s going to have one huge year, win the MVP and get to the Super Bowl. I am seriously predicting this.

8) Cardinals—They’ve scored a defensive TD in each of their last three home games. Has a guy ever been Coach of the Year two years in a row, for two different teams? Bruce Arians has had a terrific 15 months.

7) 49ers—Frank Gore has torn an ACL in both knees, but he’s come back and really had an excellent career. Hope he sends his surgeon and the 49ers’ trainer a nice gift every Christmas.

6) Patriots—I’ve lost track of Tom Brady’s salary, but he is underpaid, no matter what he makes. The team they’ve put around him is very ordinary.

5) Chiefs—They won two games LY and are 10-3 now, but they’re not going to win their division. Superior coaching job by Andy Reid.

T3) Saints—Wonder who would’ve gotten the Alabama job had Nick Saban chosen Drew Brees to be his QB with the Dolphins, because he’d still be in Miami. Rumors are floating about Saban going to Detroit next year.

T3) Panthers—Won eight of last nine games; we’ll see what they learned Sunday night when they get the Saints in Charlotte next week.

2) Seahawks—Great point by Troy Aikman or someone on TV last week, about how some QBs run to run/gain yards, but Russell Wilson runs to find an open receiver. Lucky for Pete Carroll, Wilson hit .220 in the low minor leagues, or else he might be the 2B in Colorado by now.

1) Broncos—Who would win if Denver played New England and Brady, Manning both sat out? Brock Osweiler vs Ryan Mallett. Mallett was the much better college player, but Denver went 8-8 with Tebow at QB two years ago, so I’m saying the Broncos.

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Thursday, December 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Diego - 8:25 PM ET San Diego +10 500 *****

Denver - Over 56.5 500 *****