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Chiefs look for revenge

November 29, 2013


DENVER BRONCOS (9-2) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-2)

Sportsbook.ag LineDenver -4.5, Total: 48.5

For the second time in three weeks, the two best AFC teams will clash, when the Broncos visit the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.

Denver blew a 24-0 halftime lead in a 34-31 overtime loss in New England last week, and might have lost the services of top RB Knowshon Moreno (leg injury) for this game. Kansas City is also reeling, and will try to end a two-game skid that has occurred on the heels of a 9-0 start to the year. Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 323 yards in the 27-17 win over K.C. on Nov. 17, making him 8-1 in his career versus the Chiefs. Denver is 9-4 SU in the past 13 series meetings, but Kansas City holds a 14-8 SU advantage (11-10-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992.

Although the Broncos have a huge betting trend in their favor, as NFL road teams coming off a road loss in Weeks 10 through 13 are 72-31 ATS (70%) in the past 10 seasons, the Chiefs are 24-7 ATS (77%) after allowing 25+ points in two straight games since 1992.

While Denver should have both RB Knowshon Moreno (foot) and TE Julius Thomas (knee) back on the field, both of these teams have major injury concerns on defense. The Broncos lost DT Kevin Vickerson (hip) for the season last game, and both of their top cornerbacks, Champ Bailey (foot) and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (shoulder) are questionable.

The Chiefs saw both of their star pass-rushing OLBs, Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (elbow), get hurt last week, but it appears that Hali will play, while Houston will not. K.C. also has major injuries on both lines with OT Eric Fisher (shoulder) and DE Mike DeVito (knee) both questionable for Sunday.

The Broncos offense still leads the league with 39.0 PPG and 451.5 total YPG, but they have been slowed a little in the past three weeks with 28.7 PPG and 412 total YPG. Denver's loss in New England makes the club just 2-3 ATS (3-2 SU) on the road this year, mostly because the defense has allowed 32.8 PPG and 400.2 YPG to host teams.

QB Peyton Manning continues to lead the NFL in passing yards (3,722) and passing touchdowns (36), while completing 69% of his passes with only seven interceptions. But he struggles in cold weather, going 2-6 in his past eight games where the temperature was below freezing, and the weather is expected to be quite chilly on Sunday for a late afternoon start. While Manning and his talented receiving crew of WR Demaryius Thomas (955 rec. yards, 10 TD), WR Wes Welker (679 rec. yards, 9 TD), WR Eric Decker (797 rec. yards, 3 TD) and TE Julius Thomas (590 rec. yards, 10 TD) get most of the credit for this offense, the ground game has also played a big role in the team's success with 121.0 rushing YPG.

Although RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for only 79 yards on 27 carries two weeks ago against the Chiefs, he rumbled for 224 yards on 37 totes (6.1 YPC) in the Sunday night loss. If he can't assume a full workload this Sunday because of a bone bruise in his leg, the team will turn to either rookie RB Montee Ball (262 rush yards, 3.5 YPC, 3 TD), RB Ronnie Hillman (182 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 1 TD) or RB C.J. Anderson (38 rush yards, 5.4 YPC).

Defensively, the Broncos have done a stellar job stuffing the run with 94.8 rushing YPG allowed (5th in NFL) and 3.7 YPC allowed (4th in league). But they surrender 283.2 YPG through the air (30th in NFL), which is a big reason why they allow 26.3 PPG (T-26th in league). Denver's red-zone defense has also been poor (60%, T-25th in NFL), while its third-down defense is average (38%, 18th in league). The Broncos have helped themselves out in the turnover department recently though, generating nine takeaways over the past four weeks.

The Chiefs are 5-1 SU at home this year, but are just 2-4 ATS. The offense hasn't been too special this year with 326.8 total YPG (21st in NFL) on 4.9 yards per play (26th in league). QB Alex Smith has thrown for a paltry 6.1 YPA, completing 59% of his passes for 2,443 yards, 14 TD and just 5 INT. Smith has also held onto the ball too long at times, taking 32 sacks in his 11 games. Although his team has lost two in a row, Smith has done a nice job getting top WR Dwayne Bowe back in the offense, completing 16 of 32 targets to Bowe for 175 yards and two scores in the past three games.

But this offense remains contingent on the play of RB Jamaal Charles, who has totaled 1,343 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Although his 4.6 YPC is a career low, he busted out for 8.2 YPC last week when he gained 115 yards on just 14 carries against the Chargers. That was quite an improvement from his subpar performance versus Denver when he totaled 73 yards for the game, catching two passes for minus-6 yards.

After allowing just 12.3 PPG and 326.9 total YPG during a 9-0 start to the season, Kansas City's defense has been shredded during its two-game losing skid, surrendering 34.0 PPG and 459.0 total YPG. Much of that had to do with both OLBs Tamba Hali (10 sacks) and Justin Houston (9 sacks) getting injured last game, but this Chiefs defense still has the NFL's best third-down rate (29%) while ranking fifth in red-zone efficiency (41%). The one trouble spot for the defense has been versus the run, as it allows 115.9 rushing YPG (20th in NFL) on a frightening 4.6 yards per carry (28th in NFL). K.C. has also done a poor job recently of creating mistakes for opposing offenses. After generating 18 turnovers in the first six games of the year, it has just six takeaways in the past five games combined.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 13

November 29, 2013

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #425) Tennessee +3.5 - The Colts can essentially lock up the AFC South title if they can win on Sunday against the Titans, but with the way that Indy has been playing, nothing is a given. It seems too easy to back the division leaders at home laying just a hook more than home field advantage against a team which has been playing with its backup quarterback for the last month or so. Tennessee dominated the first half when these teams met two weeks ago, but it was killed in the second half.

Opening Line: Tennessee +4
Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 65% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #444) Houston +7.5 - The Texans have been a brutal disaster for the last two and a half months, losing nine straight games, but they haven't been blown out all that often either. They're getting more than a TD at home against a New England which has to be ready to come down off of the high of coming back from down 24-0 last week at home against the Broncos to win in overtime.

Opening Line: Houston +9.5
Current Line: Houston +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on New England

(Rotation #438) Miami/New York Over 38.5 - When you look at the raw stats for the Jets and Dolphins, you have to think that this one screams to be an 'under' game. The Jets have scored one TD in their last 31 possessions, and the healthy Dolphins running backs are averaging less than two yards per carry combined in the last month of the season. Both of these teams play stout defense, too. The number isn't moving though, and both meetings last year had at least 39 points.

Opening Line: 38.5
Current Line: 38.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Under

[StarDust Bum]

Week 13 Tips

November 29, 2013


Cardinals at Eagles - 1:00 PM EST

Arizona: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
Philadelphia: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Cardinals won their fourth straight game as Arizona blew out Indianapolis, 40-11 as 3 ½-point home favorites. Arizona has scored at least 27 points in four consecutive games, while improving to 5-1 at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Eagles are riding a three-game winning streak, as Philadelphia is coming off the bye week. Chip Kelly's team snapped a 10-game skid at Lincoln Financial Field with a 24-16 triumph over Washington two weeks ago.

Previous meeting results: Arizona has won each of the last three matchups, including a 27-6 rout of Philadelphia last September in Glendale as three-point home underdogs. The last time the Cardinals ventured to Philadelphia, Arizona won outright as 13 ½-point 'dogs in 2011 with a 27-6 upset.

Betting notes: The Cardinals have hit the 'over' in five of the last six games, while Arizona has split eight contests this season against NFC opponents. The Eagles own a 1-4 SU/ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field this season, while winning five of seven games within the conference.

Titans at Colts - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee: 5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Indianapolis: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Titans bounced back from consecutive home losses to beat the Raiders in the final seconds of a 23-19 road triumph last Sunday. Indianapolis allowed at least 38 points for the second time in three weeks after getting routed at Arizona, 40-11, while splitting its last six contests.

Previous meeting results: Tennessee built a 17-3 lead two weeks ago against Indianapolis, but the Colts rallied back to stun the Titans, 30-27 as 2 ½-point road favorites. The Colts rushed for three touchdowns, including the go-ahead scamper by Andrew Luck in the third quarter. Indianapolis has won and covered each of the last four meetings with Tennessee, while winning each of the past home matchups against the Titans.

Betting notes: The Titans have been involved in high-scoring games lately, posting 'overs' in six of the last eight contests, but Tennessee is 1-1-1 to the 'over' the previous three road games. Indianapolis is riding a five-game 'over' streak, while going 4-0 to the 'over' in the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Since losing to Jacksonville in Week 3 of the last season, the Colts have won and covered seven of the previous eight games against AFC South opponents.

Dolphins at Jets - 1:00 PM EST

Miami: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
New York: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Dolphins squandered a 16-3 lead in a 20-16 defeat to the red-hot Panthers. Miami failed to score a point in the second half, while rushing for just 52 yards in the home setback. The Jets suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season, falling to the Ravens, 19-3 as four-point road 'dogs, while turning the ball over three times.

Previous meeting results: Five of the last seven matchups have been won by the road team, including both games last season. The Jets edged the Dolphins in overtime down in Miami, 23-20, to cash as one-point road favorites. Miami grabbed revenge with a 30-9 blowout of New York less than a month later at Met Life Stadium, improving to 4-1 the past five visits to New Jersey.

Betting notes: Since winning the first two road games, the Dolphins have lost and failed to cover in three straight away contests. The Jets are just 1-1 SU/ATS this season in the favorite role, which includes a home divisional win over the Bills in Week 3.

Broncos at Chiefs - 4:25 PM EST

Denver: 9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Kansas City: 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Broncos look to rebound from a devastating setback at New England last Sunday in overtime, 34-31. Denver threw away a 24-0 lead, while allowing three touchdown passes to Tom Brady in the second half. The Chiefs lost for the second straight week following a 9-0 start, while falling to another division opponent. Kansas City went back-and-forth with San Diego before allowing a late touchdown in a 41-38 defeat as short home favorites.

Previous meeting results: Two weeks ago, the Broncos handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season in a 27-17 home triumph as 7 ½-point 'chalk.' Denver became the first squad to score at least 20 points on Kansas City this season, while the Broncos improved to 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Chiefs.

Betting notes: The Broncos have finished 'over' the total in nine of 11 games this season, including a 4-1 mark away from Sports Authority Field. The Chiefs are listed as a home underdog for the first time since Week 16 of 2012 against the Colts, as Kansas City posted a 3-4 ATS record when receiving points last season at Arrowhead Stadium.

Bengals at Chargers - 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati: 7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
San Diego: 5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Bengals are fresh off the bye week as Cincinnati snapped a two-game skid two weeks ago in a 40-21 trouncing of the Browns. Cincinnati has won five of seven games since losing at Cleveland in its first matchup in September, while both losses in this stretch came in overtime. The Chargers saved their season in a dramatic 41-38 win at Kansas City, snapping a three-game skid. San Diego is in a good scheduling spot with four of the next five games in Southern California.

Previous meeting results: Cincinnati went to San Diego last December and knocked off the Chargers, 20-13, as the Bengals outscored the Chargers, 10-0 in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have covered each of the last three matchups with the Chargers since 2009, including two ATS wins in the underdog role.

Betting notes: Each of the last four road games for the Bengals have been decided by three points or less, while Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS away from Paul Brown Stadium this season. The Chargers have won just once in four opportunities coming off a victory this season, while going 1-4-1 ATS since 2012 off a road win.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Sunday's NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+7.5, 47)

New England won three of the four previous regular-season meetings against Houston, as well as last season's divisional-round playoff matchup. Quarterback Tom Brady has been less than stellar during the Patriots' road skid, throwing just one touchdown against three interceptions. He has been tremendous in December, however, posting a 41-6 record in the month over his career.

Despite its overall struggles, Houston leads the NFL in total defense (290.4 yards per game) and passing defense (171.8). Wide receiver Andre Johnson is eight catches away from becoming the 15th player in league history with 900 career receptions. Defensive end J.J. Watt looks to extend his streak to six straight games with a sack.
LINE: The Patriots opened -9.5 but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is steady at 47.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) + Houston (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -9.5
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after surrendering 30 or more points in their previous contest.
* Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 45)

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has strung together three consecutive strong outings, including going 22-of-28 for 222 yards and a touchdown in the recent loss to the Colts. Fitzpatrick has replaced injured Jake Locker as the starter and has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 806 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck passed for only 163 yards – the second-lowest output of his career – in last Sunday’s loss to Arizona and he has thrown four of his seven interceptions in the past three games. Colts RB Trent Richardson has just 59 yards on 28 carries over the past four games. Indianapolis rallied from a 14-point first-half deficit to post a 30-27 victory over the Titans on Nov. 14.

LINE: Indianapolis is currently a 3.5-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.0) + Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -3.5
TRENDS:

* Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indianapolis.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7, 40)

Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league in scoring defense which makes last week's effort all the more shocking. The Jaguars limited Houston to 218 total yards and quarterback Case Keenum to just 169 yards through the air. While the offense was far from sensational, Jacksonville rushed for 118 yards, nearly twice its average, and Chad Henne - who was named the starter for the rest of the season - completed 23-of-32 passes.

Cleveland's Brandon Weeden appears to have regained the starting spot at quarterback by default. With Brian Hoyer out for the season and Campbell under evaluation after taking a blow to the head against the Steelers last week, Cleveland will once again turn to Weeden, who is 0-4 as a starter on the season. The Browns are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth but have difficult games left on the road at New England and Pittsburgh.

LINE: The Browns have held as 7-point faves with the total down a half-point to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 23 percent chance of snow or mixed precipitation.
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+8.0) - Cleveland (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -6
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Week 13 games.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 21-5-2 in Cleveland's last 28 December games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 41.5)

Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has blossomed since taking over the starting job and has thrown for 10 touchdowns and one interception in the past six games. Running back Bobby Rainey also has injected life into the offense with 243 rushing yards and four TDs (three rushing, one receiving) in the past three games. The defense has been solid against the run but susceptible against the pass.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (379 yards, 5 TDs) and No. 1 running back DeAngelo Williams (610 yards, 2 TDs) lead a strong ground game and Newton has been efficient when forced to throw the ball. While Newton's maturation has grabbed much of the attention, Carolina's defense has been a force, ranking first in the league in scoring (13.7) and third in total yards (297.5).

LINE: The Panthers opened -9.5 but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.5) + Carolina (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -11.5
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records.
* Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 50)

Chicago's recent struggles can't be pinned on quarterback Jake McCown, who has passed for seven touchdowns with only one interception and boasts a 100.8 rating. Matt Forte didn't practice Wednesday, but coach Marc Trestman told reporters he is optimistic about the running back's status for Sunday. The Bears already have the league's worst run defense and they'll likely be without three defensive starters - including linebacker Lance Briggs.

The Vikings let one get away last week, blowing a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter of their 26-26 tie with the Packers. Christian Ponder is back in the driver's seat of the team's quarterback carousel and passed for 233 yards and a touchdown last week. Peterson is still the force that drives the offense, though, and he averages 107.7 yards and has 14 touchdowns in 11 career games against Chicago

LINE: The Vikings have remained 1-point faves with the total rising two points to 50.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.0) + Minnesota (+5.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. NFC foes.
* Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)

After defeating three of the league's worst teams (Atlanta, Houston and Jacksonville), Arizona notched an impressive 40-11 victory over AFC South-leading Indianapolis last week. Palmer has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back games and has a 110.8 quarterback rating during the four-game winning streak. As usual, Larry Fitzgerald is the focal point of the Cardinals' offense, hauling in two touchdowns last week.

The Eagles' Chip Kelly, coming off a bye week for the first time as an NFL coach, needed the extra time to improve a defense that ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed. That said, the Eagles' defense has surrendered 21 points or fewer in seven straight games, including their most recent contest - a 24-16 triumph over Washington in which Trent Cole had two of the team's four sacks.

LINE: The Eagles are steady 3-point faves. The total is holding at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-2.5) - Philadelphia (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.


Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2, 40)

Miami's 26th-ranked running game took another blow with the loss of Daniel Thomas (ankle), leaving second-year Lamar Miller as the team's primary back. The Dolphins' rushing woes have led to the team throwing 66 percent of the time, which is fourth highest in the league. The much-maligned offensive line has taken its lumps, but could see the return of center Mike Pouncey who missed the past two games due to an undisclosed illness.

Jets coach Rex Ryan will likely revert to a variation of his "Ground and Pound" game against Miami's 26th-ranked rush defense if New York is to alleviate any of the burden on Smith's shoulders. Chris Ivory suffered an ankle strain on his first carry versus the Ravens and has been limited in practice this week. Should Ivory be limited or out, Bilal Powell will try to get untracked after mustering just 190 yards on 59 carries over his last seven games.

LINE: The Jets opened at -1 but have been bet up by a point. The total is up 1.5-points to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+3.5) - New York (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -2.5
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 7-3 in New York's last 10 games vs. divisional foes.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Sunday's NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills (-3, 46.5)

Injuries have been a killer and the schedule hasn't made it any easier for Atlanta, which is in the midst of playing five of seven on the road - and the two home games in that span were against NFC powers Seattle and New Orleans. Still, the Falcons have not been competitive for much of the five-game skid, getting outscored by an average of 18.5 points over a four-week stretch.

Buffalo has endured injury problems of its own, but rookie quarterback EJ Manuel returned from a three-game absence to throw for 245 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Jets. Running back Fred Jackson said the week off came at a good time for the Bills, who expect to have leading receiver Stevie Johnson and rookie wideout Robert Woods back in the lineup.

LINE: The Bills opened at -3.5 but have been bet down a half-point. The total is currently 46.5
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.5) - Buffalo (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bills -4.5
TRENDS:

* Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.
* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven games following a bye week.


St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 42)

Kellen Clemens has stepped in nicely for the injured Sam Bradford, recording a 100.5 passer rating with four touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three weeks. Last week, Clemens was helped out by three rookies - Benny Cunningham, Zac Stacy and wideout Tavon Austin, who combined for 261 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 attempts.

The 49ers rank last in the NFL in passing yards (173.5 per game), so the return of wideout Michael Crabtree, who had 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns last season - all team highs - should be a welcome sight. Frank Gore, on the other hand, appears to finally be on the decline, as the 30-year-old running back has averaged more than four yards per carry just once in his last six games.

LINE: San Francisco opened as a 9.5-point fave, but is now -7.5. The total is down a point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s under clear skies.
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+2.5) + San Francisco (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -11.5
TRENDS:

* Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. divisional foes.
* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.


Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1, 48.5)

Quarterback Andy Dalton continues to be plagued by inconsistency despite his three-TD performance against Cleveland, getting intercepted twice and throwing for only 93 yards - the second-fewest yards since his NFL debut. Star wideout A.J. Green was limited to two catches for seven yards by the Browns, halting a streak of five-consecutive 100-yard games.

San Diego typically plays to the level of its competition, owning wins over division leaders Philadelphia, Dallas, Indianapolis and Kansas City while losing to five sub-.500 teams. Philip Rivers is having a career renaissance, bouncing back from two turnover-riddled seasons to lead the league in completion percentage (70.8) while throwing for 22 touchdowns and eight picks.

LINE: The Chargers opened as a 1-point dog but have been bet up to a 1-point fave. The total is up three points to 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.0) - San Diego (0) - home field (-3.0) = Even
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings.


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+5, 48.5)

Denver's offense continues to set a near-record pace, as the team's 429 points are the second-most in history through 11 games and Peyton Manning's 3,722 passing yards are the most ever at this point in the season. The defense had put together an impressive string of games before the second half last week when Tom Brady picked apart a banged-up secondary with cornerbacks Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and safety Duke Ihenacho injured.

Kansas City did a credible job of slowing down Denver's explosive offense in the first meeting, but the Chiefs' defense got dinged against the Chargers. Linebackers Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (elbow) both left in the first half last week and neither is likely to play - a significant blow as the two have combined for 20 sacks - although Hali is quoted as saying he's ready but does not have medical clearance.

LINE: Denver opened at - 3.5 but the line has been bet up to -5. The total is steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-7.5) - Kansas City (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Chiefs are 4-10 in their last 14 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.


New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)

Elli Manning did rally New York from a 15-point deficit last week but he threw for only 174 yards and had trouble moving the team for much of the day in a loss against the Cowboys despite Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs rushing for a combined 202 yards. Victor Cruz has one touchdown catch since scoring three times in Week 1 and Hakeem Nicks, who was scratched last week with an abdominal injury, has yet to get in the end zone.

Robert Griffin III turned in another clunker and Washington was limited to a pair of field goals and 190 yards by San Francisco. Griffin threw for a season-low 118 yards and an interception, giving him 11 on the season - more than double the total from his mesmerizing rookie campaign. Second-year running back Alfred Morris needs 30 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark again.

LINE: The Giants are holding as 1-point faves with the total down a half-point to 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s under partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + Washington (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Giants -1
TRENDS:

* Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Redskins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. the NFC.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)—Major concern for Indy squad that was outscored 93-12 in first half of last four games with only one of four opponents (Cards) a playoff contender; oddly, Colts won two of those four games, beating Tennessee 30-27 (-3) on a Thursday in Week 11, using 12-yard advantage in field position to win tight (TY 366-340) game. Colts won nine of last ten series games, winning last five played here, with three of five wins by 10+ points. Season series has been swept in seven of last 10 years. Last three Titan games were all decided by 4 or less points; Titans are 5-0 vs spread on road, 2-3 SU, losing 20-13 in Seattle, in OT at Houston in Week 2, which was Texans’ last win. Colts are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 4-6-6 points and losses to Miami/Rams. In its last five games, Colt defense allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards, giving up 6.9+ yards/pass in all five games. Home teams are 0-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season; home favorites are 0-3. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-0 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)—Denver (-7.5) beat Chiefs 27-17 two weeks ago at Mile High, then both teams lost by FG last week, so winner here leads AFC West with four games left. Season series was split eight of last ten years; Broncos won last four visits here, by 31-4-7-8 points. Not only did Chiefs lose last two games after 9-0 start, remember that win #9 was 23-13 in Buffalo, when KC defense scored two TDs and offense scored none. Chiefs converted only 10 of 34 third down plays in last three games; they had been 37.7% on 3rd down up until then. KC defensive injuries last week make them vulnerable here; if Philip Rivers hung 34 on Chiefs in second half, what will Denver do after Sunday night’s debacle, when they blew 24-0 halftime and lost in OT at Foxboro? Broncos scored 33+ in first eight games, scored 28-27-31 in three post-bye games but in fairness, weather held them back Sunday night; Denver is 3-2 on road, winning by 18-3-8 points, losing at Colts/Pats. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread. Over is 9-2 in Denver games, 3-8 in KC games.

Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)—Cleveland is now 1-16 vs Big Ben, has lost five of last six games overall, as another lost season looms on Lake Erie; until they beat Steelers, Browns won’t be taken seriously by their fans, but they have won three of last four games with Jags, who are 2-1 since their bye and were 14-all at half with Cardinals in third game, so they’re still playing hard for rookie coach Bradley. This is their third road game in four weeks, a Florida team playing by Lake Erie on December 1; Jax is won its last two road games, covered last three- they’ve lost road games by 10-28-14-16 points this year, beat Titans/Texans. Browns are 3-3 at home but have been outscored 99-46 in losing all four Weeden starts. Hoyer/Campbell gave fans glimmer of hope, but they couldn’t stay healthy and Weeden seems like lost cause. Jags lost 23-17/14-10 in last two visits here, after winning first four. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread, 5-2 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 5-5-1 on road. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.

Buccaneers (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)—Carolina won/covered last seven games, but last three were decided by total of nine points, with Newton leading winning TD drives the last two weeks- they have first of two games with Saints next week, could be looking past this game. Tampa Bay is +11 in turnovers (12-1) the last four games, after being even in each of first six games, then -1 in 7th game; they picked off nine passes in last four games, but Revis was hurt in Detroit, check status. Bucs were +5 in turnovers last week and blocked a punt, yet won by only a FG, failing to score on both drives that started in Detroit territory and running ball for only 22 yards. Panthers (-7) outrushed Bucs 129-48 in 31-13 win in Week 8; Panthers had 16-yard edge in field position, with short TD drives of 53/29 yards. Bucs won two of last three visits here; season series has been swept in each of last four years. Home teams are 6-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year, home favorites are 4-0. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Buc games, 0-3 in Carolina’s last three games.

Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)—Chicago run defense has been problem; in last five games, they’ve given up 985 rushing yards, 5.7 per carry, including 258 in St Louis last week, when they could stack box against Rams’ backup QB. Bears are 2-3 on road, winning at Pitt/GB, but Rodgers got hurt on first series at Lambeau- they’ve given up 82 games in losing both their dome games, at Lions/Rams. Chicago (-6.5) beat Vikings 31-30 in Week 2, in turnover-filled game (4C/3M) games where both teams averaged 7+ yards/pass attempt; Bears won seven of last eight series games, winning two of last three visits here. Vikings are 1-5-1 since their win in London; they blew 23-7 lead in 4th quarter last week to Packers’ 4th-string QB. Minnesota hasn’t forced a turnover in its last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers over their last six games. Vikings had 232 rushing yards last week; Peterson figures to do more damage here. Series was swept in four of last seven years. Home teams are 3-6 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Over is 8-3 in Bear games this season, 5-0 in last five Viking games.

Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)—Arizona won its last four games, scoring 27+ points in all four (11 TDs on 46 drives); they’re 2-3 on road, beating Jags/Bucs, losing other three by 3-24-12 points. Redbirds outscored last three opponents 39-15 in second half of games, so coaches are making good adjustments; they’ve only turned ball over six times in last five games, none in last two. Eagles won/covered last three pre-bye games, scoring 33.3 ppg, figure to be healthier after bye; they broke long home losing skid last game, have 13 TDs on last 35 drives, averaging 9.5+ yards/pass attempt in all games, but Arizona’s defense held last four foes to 5.5/attempt or less, so good matchup there. Arizona won last three series games, in series where home team won five of last six meetings- this is Cardinals’ first visit here since 48-20 loss in ’08, which they avenged in playoffs that same year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-8 vs spread, 5-5 at home; NFC West underdogs are 6-5-1, 4-4-1 on road. Five of last six Cardinal games went over total; four of last five Eagle games stayed under.

Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)—Eight of 11 Miami games (including last four) were decided by 4 or less points; underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in their games. Dolphins won on road in Weeks 1-2, lost three in row on foreign soil since, by 21-10-3 points. Miami has picked off pass in last seven games, but has only 11 takeaways (+1) during that time. Gaggle of teams tied for last AFC playoff spot at 5-6; this is big game. Erratic Jets lost three of last four games with rookie QB and no decent backup behind him- they’ve scored 14 or less points in their six losses, 26+ in four of five wins (18-17 vs Bucs in opener was other win). Jets won four of five home games, losing only 19-6 to Steelers, who were winless at time; they’re -17 in turnovers in six losses, +1 in five wins- they need good field position to score. In last four games, Jets have only 12 points on 24 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line. Home team lost eight of last 11 series games- Miami won four of last five visits here. Underdogs covered five of six AFC East divisional games this season. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games; four of last five Jet games went over.

Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) – Atlanta lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); teams that lost on Thursday night week before are 8-4 vs spread their next game, but Falcons look like beaten team- last time they won field position was in Week 4 vs Patriots. Falcons are 0-5 SU/ATS on road this year, with last three road losses by 14-24-13 points- they haven’t forced a single turnover in their last three games. Buffalo is +7 (13-6) in turnovers in its wins, -4 (7-11) in losses, so they are lot like Jets, playing with rookie QB and trying to avoid miscues; Bills are 4-2 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Atlanta allowed 27+ points in four of last five games. Have to remember Manuel missed some games; they’re 3-3 when he starts/finishes a game, 3-4 in his starts. This is Bills’ annual game in Toronto; they’re 3-3 in games where spread is 4 or less points- they figure to be little healthier, coming off their bye. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; NFC South underdogs are 6-7. Five of last seven Buffalo games, three of last four Atlanta road games went over the total.

Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)—St Louis lost 30-15 (+6) in only previous outdoor game this season; how is it Dec 1 and they’ve played one game outdoors? Niners are bully team; their last six wins are all by 12+ points, but they’ve lost four games, averaging 5.9 or less yards per pass attempt. In their seven wins, they’ve been at 6.7+ six times and 6.0 in the other game. Rams just outscored last two foes 80-28 in winning twice with backup QB Clemens under center, using big plays in all three phases to score; they’re +7 in turnovers last two games; only once in last five games (Titans) have they allowed more than 102 rushing yards. St Louis is 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, winning at Texans/Colts, two domed stadiums. SF gets Crabtree back from injury here, which figures to help pass offense now in dogfight with Cardinals for Wild Card spot; they beat Rams 35-11 (-3) in Week 4 Thursday game, outrushing Rams 219-18, holding Rams to 188 TY. St Louis has played better since Bradford got hurt; not the backup QB, but OL, defense and special teams have picked it up.

Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)— In their last four games, NE outscored opponents 106-42, after being outscored 61-30 in first half of those games; in last two games, they’ve been outscored 34-3 in the first half, but each game came down to last minute. Potential trap game for Pats, coming off of last-minute primetime decisions with Carolina/Denver and with AFC East salted away; NE lost its last three road games and its only two wins on foreign soil are 23-21 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Atlanta in Weeks 1-4. Patriots are 4-3 as favorites this year, 0-2 on road. Texans are horrendous, losing last nine games, with only one cover all year, Week 7 at Arrowhead. Houston have only forced a turnover in four of 11 games this year; they’ve converted only 13 of last 47 3rd down plays and gained only 218 yards last week, at home vs 2-9 Jaguars. Patriots only lost field position battle twice this season; they’ve got 10 takeaways (+3) in last four games. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 2-6 at home. Three of last four Houston games went over the total.

Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)—San Diego’s upset at Arrowhead last week snapped 3-game skid, put them in six-team logjam for last AFC Wild Card slot; four of their last five games are at home, where Bolts are 2-2, losing to Texans/Broncos, beating Dallas/Colts. Chargers have turned ball over only four times (+4) in last six games, after giving it away 10 times (-7) in first five games- they’ve had 26 plays of 20+ yards in last five games. Bengals are off bye, appear headed to AFC North title in down year for division, but loss here cuts their lead to one game over winner of Steelers/Ravens. Cincy is 5-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-4 when it doesn’t; they’re 2-4 on road, with only wins by FG at both Detroit/Buffalo. Bengals are 0-3 on grass fields this season. Three of last four SD games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Bengals won last two series meetings 34-20/20-13; they’ve lost five of last seven visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-5-2 against the spread, 4-3-2 on road; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. I’m thinking a Week 12 bye has to help a team’s legs recover.

Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)—Washington looked like dead team Monday night, with RGIII unable to run fast enough to get out of bounds to avoid hits; inserting Cousins would give shot in arm to passing game, but would create other, bigger problems since this season is shot anyway. Redskins won three of last four series games, after Giants had gone 9-1 in last ten series games before that, winning 28-14/17-16 in last two played here, but they’ve lost five of last seven games, with none of losses by less than 7 points, while two wins were 45-41/30-24, narrow wins. Skins are 3-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Giants didn’t play road game in November; they’re 1-4 SU on road, with only win 15-7 (+5.5) at Philly; Big Blue had 4-game win streak snapped at home by Dallas last week, a deflating loss that basically ended their season. Giants allowed a TD on defense/special teams in five of their last six games. NFC East divisional home teams (all HFs) are 4-5 vs spread this season. Three of Giants’ last four road games stayed under the total.

Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)—New Orleans offense isn’t nearly as potent on road (19.2 ppg) as in Superdome (32.7) but Seattle has attrition issues at CB and this is bad time for that. Seahawks won last six pre-bye games, have had 15 days since last game; they’ve got 3-game lead in NFC West, so not as much urgency as Sants, who are battling Carolina in NFC South and still have to play Panthers twice, with first meeting next week. Seahawks are 3-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 21-28-7-3-21 points- they were favored by 13/16 points in two non-covers. Saints’ two losses are 30-27 in Foxboro, 26-20 at Jets; they’re 1-1 as underdogs this year, winning SU in Chicago. NO defense allowed only five TDs on 31 drives in last three games, giving up 16.7 ppg. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 8-4-1 at home. NFC South underdogs are 6-7, 4-4 on road. Teams split 12 series meetings; Seattle won last one 41-36 here in 2010 playoffs. Saints don’t want to be coming back here in January. Three of last four Seattle home games went over the total.

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NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7, 40)
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 39 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow toward the NE endzone at 6 mph.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies and a small 16 percent chance of rain.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2, 40)
There is a 24 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-40s.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 41)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-60s.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1, 48.5)
Skies will be clear with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+5, 48.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)
Temperatures will be in the high-30s.

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 13 of NFL football

- The Tennessee Titans allow a paltry 8.8 points in the first half, but a 16.7 points in the second half.

- The Indianapolis Colts have won nine of the previous 10 encounters with the Titans and are 3.5-point home faves Sunday.

- Perhaps Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has turned the corner on his season? The vet is coming off his best game of the season, carrying the ball 14 times for 84 yards and one TD in last week's win over the Houston Texans.

- Sunday marks the fourth time all season that the Cleveland Browns are favored. The Browns are 1-2 ATS and SU in the three games they have favored in thus far.

- Per @NFLonFOX, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just the second team in league history to win three-straight games after starting the campaign 0-8. The first was the '78 Cardinals.

- The fave is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the aforementioned Bucs and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are currently 7.5-point home faves Sunday.

- The Chicago Bears have scored at least 18 points in the first 11 games of the season for the first time in franchise history.

- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson notched 100 rushing yards on 26 carries - and had one fumble lost - in the Vikings Week 2 loss to Chicago.

- The red-hot Arizona Cardinals are riding a four-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS over that stretch. The Cards are 3-point road dogs in Philly.

- Speaking of the Eagles, the league's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy (1,009 yards) will go up against the league's second best rush defense. The Cards allow just 81.3 yards rushing on the season.

- The road team has covered in the last two meetings (and five of the last seven) between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently 2-point road dogs Sunday.

- The New England Patriots are currently mired in a three game road losing streak. They haven't lost four straight road games since 2000.

- The Houston Texans are the worst ATS bet in the league with a record of 2-9 ATS. The Texans are 7.5-point home dogs as they host the Pats. Both of Houston's covers have come on the road (they are 0-6 ATS at home).

- The Buffalo Bills 'host' the Atlanta Falcons from Toronto. The Bills are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their five games north of the border.

- The Bills are the only team in the league with two RBs with over 500 yards (Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller), while the Falcons are 28th against the run (130 ypg).

- The St. Louis Rams travel to the Bay to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and are 7.5-point dogs Sunday.

- Rams DBs will have another WR to check for. According to various reports, Crabtree is set to play Sunday. Crabtree had 12 catches for 171 yards and one TD in two games against the Rams in 2012.

- Per @ESPNNFL, the San Diego Chargers own the NFL's second best record in December and January (35-9) over the last 10 seasons.

- The game between the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers will be the first local tv blackout of the season.

- Since Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, they are 9-0 SU against the AFC West. Manning is 10-1 SU in his career against the Kansas City Chiefs.

- The Chiefs best pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, picked up injuries last week. Hali is questionable but Houston is out.

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Sunday, December 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +3.5 500 POD
Indianapolis - Under 46 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7.5 500
Cleveland - Under 39.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +7.5 500 POD
Carolina - Under 41 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1 500
Minnesota - Over 50.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -3 500 DOUBLE POD
Philadelphia - Under 48 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 39.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -7 500
Houston - Over 48 500

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Afternoon POD'S

Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET Atlanta +4.5 500
Buffalo - Under 48 500

St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET St. Louis +7.5 500 POD
San Francisco - Over 40.5 500 POD

Denver - 4:25 PM ET Denver -6 500 POD
Kansas City - Under 49.5 500

Cincinnati - 4:25 PM ET San Diego +1.5 500 POD
San Diego - Under 48.5 500

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Sunday, December 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants 0 0th Washington -1 500 POD

Washington 0 Under 45 500 POD

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SNF - Giants at Redskins

November 29, 2013


NEW YORK GIANTS (4-7) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-8)

Sportsbook.ag LineNew York -1, Total: 45.5

NFC East foes clash Sunday night when the Giants visit the slumping Redskins.

New York won four straight games to give itself a slim chance of making the NFC playoffs, but lost a crucial home game 24-21 against the Cowboys last week. Washington, however, has really struggled as of late, losing its third straight game 27-6 at the hands of the 49ers on Monday night. The home team won both meetings in this series last year, with the Giants forcing four turnovers in a 27-23 home win, before the Redskins returned the favor with 207 rushing yards in a narrow 17-16 victory, giving them five straight ATS wins over New York.

The Giants are 13-3 ATS (81%) in road games versus awful passing defenses (260+ passing YPG allowed) since 1992, but in this same timeframe, Washington is 20-4 ATS (83%) versus poor rushing teams (90 or less rush YPG allowed) in the second half of the season since 1992.

Both teams should be getting important skill-position players back with New York WR Hakeem Nicks (abdomen) and Redskins TE Jordan Reed (concussion) expected to return after missing last week's action.

The Giants had a chance to climb back into the NFC East race, but lost to Dallas at home 24-21. RB Andre Brown has played well for the Giants since returning from a broken leg suffered in the preseason. He rushed for 127 yards on 21 carries against Dallas and caught four passes as well.

QB Eli Manning had two touchdowns and no interceptions in the defeat, but he was just 16-of-30 passing. Top WR Victor Cruz was held to just two receptions for 27 yards, as the wind was definitely a factor. The passing game of the Giants should have a lot more success going against a Redskins defense that has struggled against the pass all season.

New York's defense may have a tough time slowing down the Redskins potent rushing attack, but it has allowed just 98.8 YPG on the ground (7th in NFL). Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III are quite the duo of rushers though, so the G-Men will need to keep them in check all game. The Redskins were embarrassed in a home game against the 49ers on Monday night, losing 27-6. QB Robert Griffin III really struggled against San Francisco, throwing for just 127 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Griffin was also sacked four times.

RB Alfred Morris has been one of the only consistent performers for this Redskins team, rushing for 970 yards on 5.0 YPC with five touchdowns this season. However, the root of the Redskins problems this season has been their defense.

Washington is allowing 270.6 passing yards per game (26th in NFL) and will need to step up their performance with Eli Manning in town. Manning has struggled this season, but is still capable of making the Redskins pay for secondary miscues. Washington is also allowing 111.5 yards per game on the ground (14th in NFL) and could struggle to slow down the red-hot Andre Brown in this one.