The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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NFL

Sunday, October 27

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49ers vs. Jaguars: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)

The San Francisco 49ers look to carry their hot streak overseas when they take on the winless Jacksonville Jaguars at London's Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Since an ugly 20-point loss at home to Indianapolis on Sept. 22, the 49ers have won four straight by an average of 20.3 points. The league's third-ranked rushing attack rolled up 153 yards on the ground in a 31-17 win at Tennessee last Sunday, San Francisco's fourth straight game with at least 30 points.

The 49ers defeated Denver 24-16 at Wembley on Oct. 31, 2010. Jacksonville is making its first overseas appearance and has agreed to play a home game in London every year through 2016. The Jaguars, who allow 26.2 more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, ran their losing streak over the past two seasons to 12 with a 24-6 loss to San Diego last Sunday.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 16.5-point faves and are now -14.5. The total opened at 40.5.

WEATHER: Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph. The probability of rain will increase throughout the game.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (5-2): Frank Gore may be licking his chops while thinking of getting a chance to run through the soft Jacksonville run defense, but he is listed as questionable for the contest with an ankle injury. If the ground game is limited in any way, expect quarterback Colin Kaepernick to continue to seek out tight end Vernon Davis, who has 17 catches and four touchdowns in the last four weeks. Tight ends have averaged six receptions a game against Jacksonville.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (0-7): There was a mild degree of optimism for Jacksonville after it stuck around well into the third quarter at mighty Denver two weeks ago, but the loss to the Chargers at home was another embarrassing blow. Chad Henne was sacked six times and the woeful Jaguars went 0-for-3 in the red zone. Blaine Gabbert has recovered from a hamstring injury suffered earlier this month at St. Louis, but Henne - who has thrown for 300-plus yards in consecutive games - will get the start.

TRENDS:

* Over is 11-3 in 49ers last 14 games overall.
* 49ers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last five games in Week 8.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco P Andy Lee was named NFC special teams player of the week after pinning three of his six punts against Tennessee inside the 20.

2. Since Week 5, Jacksonville WR Justin Blackmon leads the NFL with 25 catches and 384 yards.

3. Davis and Gore both had touchdown catches in the Niners' 20-3 win over the Jaguars in the last meeting between these teams Nov. 29, 2009.

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NFL

Sunday, October 27

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Tale of the Tape: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
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The Minnesota Vikings hope their latest foray into the national spotlight is more successful than their previous one.

Christian Ponder takes the latest spin on the Vikings' quarterbacking merry-go-'round as Minnesota hosts Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 23-7 loss to the previously winless New York Giants in the Monday nighter.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Led by the cannon arm of Rodgers, the Packers boast an impressive pass offense ranked fourth in the league in yards per game (300). Rodgers' 13 touchdown passes rank Green Bay in a tie for seventh-most in the NFL, and he has been intercepted just four times so far in 2013. The Packers' rush attack has been stout as well, averaging 134.7 yards per contest - sixth-most in the league.

The Minnesota QB carousel - featuring appearances by Ponder, Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman - has yielded predictably subpar results. The Vikings are averaging just 214 passing yards per game - tied with Seattle for 24th in the league - with five touchdowns and eight interceptions. The running game has been underwhelming, as well - despite boasting defending rushing champion Adrian Peterson, Minnesota ranks 19th in the NFL with 102 yards per game.

Edge: Green Bay


Defense

The Green Bay pass defense has struggled all season long. The Packers have yielded 267 yards through the air per game - tied for 23rd - with 12 touchdowns against and just three interceptions. The outlook has been much brighter when it comes to run defense, however. Green Bay has surrendered the fewest total rush yards (474), the third-lowest per-game average (79) and just three total touchdowns on the ground.

Minnesota's offensive struggles have been accentuated thanks to a pass defense that has also underperformed. The Vikings are getting torched for 289 passing yards per game - the fourth-highest mark in the league - while surrendering 14 touchdowns. Minnesota has been better in run defense, ranking 14th at 102.3 yards against per game while forcing five fumbles - tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.

Edge: Green Bay


Special Teams

There is no worse kick-return unit than Green Bay, which averages just 14.9 yards on 10 attempts. The Packers are more effective in the punt-return game, ranked 10th in the league at 9.7 yards per attempts. Green Bay is surrendering a league-high 29.5 yards per kickoff return but just 7.9 yards per punt return try. Packers kicker Mason Crosby has connected on 14 of 16 field-goal attempts, going 1-for-2 in last week's 31-13 triumph over the Cleveland Browns.

Minnesota is one of only two teams with a kickoff return touchdown this season, helping bolster its average return to 30.4 yards - good for second in the NFL. The Vikings also rank second in punt return average (15.9). Minnesota allows the second-highest kick return average (29.1) but ranks a respectable 11th in opposing punt return average (7.1). Minnesota kicker Blair Walsh is 9-for-11 on field goals, but is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Edge: Minnesota


Notable Quotable

"Eddie (Lacy) is running the ball well right now. I'm just trying to take some of the load off of Eddie and split up the remaining reps between Johnathan (Franklin) and James (Starks), because James and Johnathan still bring some unique abilities to the run game." - Packers running backs coach Alex Van Pelt on the team's versatile rushing game

"It's a phenomenal organization. I had to make my departure. There were some things said that, man, if I could say it over again I would re-word it so that it can be conveyed a little differently. But they were said, and I can't focus on that." - Vikings wide receiver Greg Jennings, referring to comments made when asked about his time with the Packers

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 8 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Since a 27-7 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, the San Francisco 49ers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games overall. The Niners are 14.5-point faves against Jacksonville in London, England.

- The Niners secondary will have their hands full with Jags WR Justin Blackmon. Since Week 5, Blackmon leads the NFL with 25 catches and 384 yards.

- The Kansas City Chiefs lead the NFL with 35 sacks. The Chiefs face a weak Browns pass protection who allow their QBs to be sacked an average of 3.9 times per game.

- The New England Patriots have won 13-straight home games against AFC East opponents, but are just 5-8 ATS during that stretch. The Pats are 6-point home faves with the Miami Dolphins in town.

- The Dolphins are good to backers in recent Week 8 games. Miami is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games in Week 8.

- The New Orleans Saints are the top Covers consensus play among home teams at 66 percent. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their three home games this season and are 11-point home faves versus Buffalo.

- It is rare when the Bills and Saints meet, but when they do, the fave is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

- The Dallas Cowboys defense has smartened up since getting picked apart by Peyton and the Broncos. The Cowboys have held their last two opponents to a combined 19 points.

- That D will be tested by the Detroit Lions, however. The past four times these teams have met, the Over is 4-0. Sunday's total is currently 51.

- The Giants meet the Eagles in an NFC East battle Sunday. The dog is 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. The G-Men are 5.5-point road dogs.

- Home is not where the heart is for the Eagles, however. Philly is 0-9 SU and ATS in its last nine home games.

- Aren't bye weeks supposed to be good? Not for the Raiders, apparently. The Raiders are 1-9 ATS and 0-10 SU in their last 10 games following a bye.

- Perhaps a visit from the Steeles will put a cork in the Raiders post-bye week woes. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Steelers are 1-point road faves.

- The New York Jets are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Jets are 6-point road dogs.

- Total bettors should look at the Falcons at Cardinals game. The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings at 'Zona and the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Sunday's total is 46.

- The top Covers consensus play on totals is the Over in the matchup between the Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos at 77 percent. The total is currently 58.5.

- The Green Bay Packers are the top Covers consensus pick for Sunday at 72 percent. The Pack are 9.5-point road faves at Minnesota Sunday night.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 27

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Sunday's NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys are riding a two-game winning streak and starting to put up some impressive defensive numbers to go along with Tony Romo and the offense. That passing defense will get a workout on Sunday when the Cowboys visit Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are sixth in the NFL in passing at an average of 304.1 yards but are giving up nearly as many yards in the secondary.

Dallas’ defense got a wake-up call in a 51-48 loss to the Denver Broncos on Oct. 6 and has been a different unit since, holding its last two opponents to a total of 19 points. The Cowboys are beginning their defensive turnaround without a few big names on the line and could be without end DeMarcus Ware (strained right quad) for a second straight game on Sunday. Detroit dropped two of its last three games and suffered its first home loss against Cincinnati last week.

LINE: Detroit has held steady as a three-point favorite. The total opened at 51.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-4.0) - Detroit (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Lions are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games against the NFC.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 38.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs look to remain the only undefeated team in the NFL when they host the slumping Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Kansas City maintained its unblemished record when it eked out a 17-16 home victory over the Houston Texans last week. One key to the Chiefs' perfect mark is their stingy defense, which has allowed a league-low 81 points and hasn't yielded more than 17 in a game.

Cleveland attempts to halt its two-game skid, as well as Kansas City's remarkable run, behind a new quarterback. With Brian Hoyer out for the season with a knee injury and Brandon Weeden fizzling, the Browns turn to Jason Campbell. After winning three straight to become one of the NFL's surprise teams through five weeks, Cleveland has lost contests against Detroit and Green Bay by a combined 62-30.
LINE: K.C. opened as a 9.5-point fave. The total opened at 39 and is down to 38.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+4.5) + Kansas City (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Kansas City -12
TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Under is 18-7-1 in Cleveland's last 26 games on grass.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 45.5)

The Miami Dolphins won their first three games of the season to present themselves as a serious challenger to the New England Patriots in the AFC East. After losing their next three contests, the Dolphins look to remain within earshot of the division-leading Patriots on Sunday when the teams meet in Foxborough, Mass. Dan Carpenter burned his former team by drilling the go-ahead field goal with 33 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter as Buffalo rallied to a 23-21 victory over Miami last weekend.

New England fell to an AFC East rival for the first time in 13 meetings as the New York Jets spoiled the return of Rob Gronkowski en route to a 30-27 overtime decision last week. After stringing together touchdown passes in 52 consecutive games, Tom Brady failed to throw one for the second time in three weeks - although he connected with his Pro Bowl tight end eight times for 114 yards.

LINE: The Pats opened as 7-point faves are are now -6.5. The total opened at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = New England -9
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Week 8 games.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC.
* Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins' last six games against the AFC East.


Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (-11, 48)

After a week off, the New Orleans Saints look to rebound from their first loss of the season when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's a homecoming for former Saints offensive coordinator Doug Marrone, whose Bills snapped a six-game road losing streak with a 23-21 win at Miami last week and seek back-to-back wins away from home for the first time since 2009.

The Saints have won three games by eight points or fewer but ended up on the wrong end of a 30-27 decision at New England last time out and are wary of a Buffalo team that been competitive in every game.
LINE: The Saints opened as 12.5-point faves but are now -11. The total opened at 50 and is down to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = New Orleans -13.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Over is 14-3 in Buffalo's last 17 games on turf.


New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 50.5)

Unless the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants play to a tie on Sunday - and given the NFC East this season, anything is possible - a long losing streak is going to end this weekend. The Eagles have not won a home game since defeating the Giants on Sept. 30, 2012, losing nine straight at Lincoln Financial Field. Meanwhile, New York has not won a road game since Oct. 14, 2012, at San Francisco, dropping eight in a row away from MetLife Stadium.

The Giants notched their first win of the season Monday night versus the Vikings and now they will try to win back-to-back games for the first time since going 4-0 in October 2012.

LINE: The Eagles opened as 5.5-point faves and are now -5. The total opened at 53 and is down to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.0) - Philadelphia (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Philadelphia -6
TRENDS:

* Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.
* Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in New Orleans' last six games following a bye week.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)

Game played at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

The San Francisco 49ers look to carry their hot streak overseas when they take on the winless Jacksonville Jaguars at London's Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Since an ugly 20-point loss at home to Indianapolis on Sept. 22, the 49ers have won four straight by an average of 20.3 points. The league's third-ranked rushing attack rolled up 153 yards on the ground in a 31-17 win at Tennessee last Sunday, San Francisco's fourth straight game with at least 30 points.

The 49ers defeated Denver 24-16 at Wembley on Oct. 31, 2010. Jacksonville is making its first overseas appearance and has agreed to play a home game in London every year through 2016. The Jaguars, who allow 26.2 more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, ran their losing streak over the past two seasons to 12 with a 24-6 loss to San Diego last Sunday.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 17-point favorites but are now -14.5. The total opened 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow diagonally across the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + neutral site (0) = Jacksonville +14.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
* Jaguars are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 8-2 in San Francisco's last 10 games following a SU win.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 27

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Sunday's NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still picking up the pieces after an 0-4 start but appear to be headed in the right direction with wins in the last two contests. The Steelers will attempt to make it three straight when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are coming off a bye week and are a much better team at home, where they have taken two of their first three games.

Pittsburgh won a defensive slugfest against rival Baltimore last week and got some positive contributions from the running game, which had been a big area of concern. Rookie Le’Veon Bell ran for a season-high 93 yards on nearly five yards per carry but could be in for a tougher road against an Oakland run defense that ranks 10th in the league in average yardage allowed.

LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs and are now +1.The total opened 40.5 and is now 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies and wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Oakland's last seven home games.


New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 41)

The Cincinnati Bengals seek their fourth consecutive win and also to maintain their hold on first place in the AFC North when they host the New York Jets on Sunday. Cincinnati’s victories have been by a combined 13 points during a hot streak that has led to a two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Jets are one game behind New England in the AFC East after beating the Patriots last weekend.

New York quarterback Geno Smith is the first rookie since the 1970 merger with four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime through his first seven career games. He has been prone to consistency issues and has just eight touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

LINE: The Bengals opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total opened at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cincinnati -8.5
TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Week 8.
* Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the AFC.
* The under is 9-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 games against the AFC.


Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 46)

A pair of teams scrambling to stay in the periphery of the NFC playoff picture square off Sunday in the desert when the Arizona Cardinals host the Atlanta Falcons. Injuries have hampered the Falcons in their NFC South title defense, but they could have a key offensive player back this week as running back Steven Jackson returned to practice Wednesday after missing four games with a hamstring injury.

The Cardinals were unable to dig out of a 14-0 hole last week in a 34-22 loss to division-leading Seattle, dropping their second straight game following a modest two-game win streak. The Falcons have won two straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 23-19 victory in Atlanta last season.

LINE: The Cardinals opened -2.5 and are now -1. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+1.0) + Arizona (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Arizona -0.5
TRENDS:

* Falcons are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with losing records.
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.


Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)

Peyton Manning has built a reputation for his legendary preparedness, but he will be in somewhat unfamiliar territory when the Denver Broncos look to rebound from their first loss in more than a year against the visiting Washington Redskins on Sunday. The Broncos were upended at Indianapolis 39-33 last week to snap a franchise-record 17-game winning streak dating to Oct. 7, 2012. The defeat also dropped Denver one game behind first-place Kansas City in the AFC West.

The Redskins are trying to dig themselves out of a hole for the second straight season, winning for the second time in three games after prevailing in a wild 45-41 shootout with Chicago last week. It marked a season high in points allowed by Washington, which has surrendered more than 30 four times and is yielding an averaging of 30.7 per contest.

LINE: The Broncos opened -14 and are now -11. The total opened at 56.5 and is up to 58.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the N end zone at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+1.5) - Denver (-8.0) - home field (-3.0) = Denver -12.5

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 13-3 in Denver's previous 16 October games.

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NFL betting: Top 5 key Week 8 injuries

With six teams on a bye in Week 8, key injuries among teams in action stand out even more. A high-volume running back appears to be set to return, while an electrifying wide receiver is a 50/50 decision to make his regular-season debut with a new team.

Here's a look at the five biggest injury impacts entering the bulk of Week 8:

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants (doubtful, hamstring)

The Giants' running back situation remains a mess with word that Jacobs is expected to miss Sunday's Week 8 matchup with Philadelphia due to a nagging hamstring injury. Jacobs is hoping to recover during the team's Week 9 bye, though regular second-stringer Andre Brown (broken leg) may be close to returning by then. With starter David Wilson (neck) a question mark to return at all this season, New York will rely on retread Peyton Hillis for heavy work this weekend, backed up by rookie Michael Cox.

The Giants are 5.5-point underdogs for Sunday's showdown with the host Eagles. The total is 50.5.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints (questionable, foot)

The top tight end in football returned to practice Friday on a limited basis, but will be a game-time decision for Sunday afternoon. The fact that Graham participated at all is encouraging, though with the team working mostly on its red-zone offense on the final day of practice, it may suggest that Graham will have to settle for a limited role if he does suit up. The rest of the key offensive players, including wide receiver Marques Colston and running back Darren Sproles, will see more attention from quarterback Drew Brees in Graham's absence.

The Saints are installed as 11-point favorites for Sunday's game against visiting Buffalo.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (questionable, hip)

Harvin has been activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list and is practicing with the team, but is a coin flip to make his Seattle debut in the Monday nighter. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll will only classify Harvin is considered "day-to-day," suggesting that the marquee free-agent acquisition may not be ready to participate in game action. Seattle has done well in Harvin's absence - posting the best record in the NFC at 6-1 - and are in no hurry to rush back their veteran wideout following offseason hip surgery.

The Seahawks are listed as 11-point favorites for the Monday nighter in St. Louis. The total is 42.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots (questionable, concussion)

Amendola's injury-plagued season received a boost Friday when it was reported that he passed all of the concussion protocol required to return to the field. "I've done pretty much everything they've asked me to do," he told reporters. "I'm healthy and I'm ready to play." Head coach Bill Belichick may disagree - he's the one making the call on Amendola's playing status for Sunday - but beat writers expect that Amendola will make his return. Considering his injury history, he may be on a limited snap count in the early going.

Oddsmakers have made the Patriots 6-point favorites Sunday against Miami, with a total of 45.5.

Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (probable, hamstring)

Jackson practiced in full throughout the week and is ready to return for the first time since exiting the Falcons' Week 2 game against St. Louis with a hamstring injury. Jackson, who scored a touchdown prior to the ailment, should provide a major shot in the arm for an Atlanta rushing attack ranked 30th in the league with just 68.3 yards per game. His presence will be especially critical for a Falcons team that will be without star wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White, as well as reserve running back Jason Snelling.

The Falcons are installed as one-point underdogs in Arizona. The total is listed at 46.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)
From London, England
Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 17 mph.


Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 38.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.


New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 50.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph.


New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 41)
Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.


Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 4 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 8

October 25, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!

All public betting percentages courtesy of the VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon.

(Rotation #219) Miami +6.5 - This line has drifted just a bit consistently on Miami all week long, and we think that there is a good reason for that. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in division play this year, and they might be in for another shocker in this one if the Dolphins can get over this three-game losing streak.

Opening Line: Miami +7
Current Line: Miami +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on New England

(Rotation #217) Buffalo +11 - QB Thad Lewis has a pair of covers so far this year as the emergency starter for the Bills, and most are just making the assumption that all of that stops here. New Orleans is coming off of that heartbreaking loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, and it had its bye week to think about it. Don't get caught up in the fact that the Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five seasons coming off of a bye. This is a lot of points.

Opening Line: Buffalo +12
Current Line: Buffalo +11
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on New England

(Rotation #228) Arizona -2.5 - The Cardinals are laying points for the very first time this season, and the public thinks that that is absurd. However, there's a reason that the line isn't moving in this game at all, and that's because the sharp money is coming in against the Falcons. Arizona was one of the sharpest teams at the start of the year on the Super Bowl odds, and this play is consistent with that thought.

Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Atlanta

(Rotation #230) Minnesota +9.5 - Last week, the Vikings were incredibly sharp against the Giants on Monday Night Football, and this week, they are once again incredibly sharp on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and there is no way that QB Christian Ponder can play as badly as QB Josh Freeman did last week.

Opening Line: Minnesota +11
Current Line: Minnesota +9.5
Public Betting Percentages: 72% on Green Bay

(Rotation #232) St. Louis +11.5 - All week long, this line has been holding relatively firm right around that 10.5-11.5 range, and for good reason. Yes, the Rams no longer have QB Sam Bradford, and they are going to be relying on a suspect QB Kellen Clemens, but we still aren't sure that the Seahawks should be laying double digits on the road. Remember that road double digit favorites are covering just 39% of the time since 1998.

Opening Line: St. Louis +11.5
Current Line: St. Louis +11.5
Public Betting Percentages: 74% on Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action

October 25, 2013

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (6-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -13 & 59.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -14 & 58

Two high-powered offenses collide on Sunday when the Broncos host the Redskins.

Washington QB Robert Griffin III accounted for 382 yards (298 passing, 84 rushing) of his team's 499 total yards in last week's 45-41 win over Chicago, and he'll need another big effort against a Denver team that has tallied at least 33 points and 400 yards in all seven games. However, the Broncos also allowed 39 points last week in Indianapolis to suffer their first loss of the season. These teams have split the past eight meetings (4-4 SU), but Washington holds the 6-2 ATS edge. The last time Denver covered against the Redskins was in a 38-16 win in 1998, back when John Elway led the offense and Harald "The Dutch Touch" Hasselbach played on the defensive line. Both teams have some positive trends, including Washington going 8-1 ATS (89%) versus poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed) in the past two seasons and tallying a 14-3 ATS (82%) road mark since 1992 after gaining 175+ rushing yards in a game. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos before last year, his team is 13-5 ATS (72%) when favored, and 6-0 ATS versus bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.), winning these games by an average score of 37 to 13. While both teams are relatively healthy, two key players in the secondary will not play on Sunday -- Redskins SS Brandon Meriweather (suspension) and Denver top CB Champ Bailey (foot).

Redskins QB Robert Griffin III is finally 100 percent healed from the torn ACL he suffered at the end of last season, and has been let loose with running the football. After averaging 4.5 carries per game over the first four contests, he has rushed 20 times over the past two games, tallying 161 yards (8.2 YPA). Along with top RB Alfred Morris (472 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 3 TD), Washington ranks second in the NFL in yards per carry (5.2) and fourth in rushing yards (142 YPG) this year. Griffin hasn't been as efficient throwing the football this season though, with an 83.4 passer rating (7.3 YPA, 8 TD, 6 INT), which is down considerably from his 102.4 rating (8.1 YPA, 20 TD, 5 INT) as a rookie. But he'll be throwing against a terrible Broncos pass defense, and mostly targeting top WR Pierre Garcon (40 rec., 466 yards, 2 TD) and emerging star TE Jordan Reed (26 rec., 298 yards, 2 TD) who caught nine passes for 134 yards and a touchdown last week. While the Redskins' offense should put up plenty of points on Sunday, the defense will have to make major strides to keep the Broncos offense in check. Washington has allowed the fourth-most yards per play in the NFL (6.1) and its 30.7 PPG makes it the third-worst scoring defense in the league. Although the Redskins' third-down defense has been strong (36%, 8th in NFL), their red-zone efficiency has not (61%, 25th in league). Washington will need to force some Denver mistakes to keep the score down, but it has a positive turnover margin just twice this season. The Redskins have tallied just three sacks over the past two games, and will need to put pressure on Broncos QB Peyton Manning to have a chance here.

Manning couldn't lead his current team to a win over his old team last Sunday night, but he still nearly brought his team back from a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter, finishing 29-of-49 for 386 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the 39-33 loss. That puts Manning's incredible numbers this season at 72% completions, 2,565 passing yards (366 per game), 25 TD and 3 INT. He's been able to complete more than 35 passes to four different receivers with WR Wes Welker leading the team in catches (44), WR Eric Decker leading in receiving yards (627), TE Julius Thomas tying Welker for the league lead with eight receiving touchdowns, and WR Demaryius Thomas doing it all with 41 catches for 610 yards and 5 TD. The Denver ground game hasn't been great though, with 108 rushing YPG (16th in NFL) on 3.8 yards per carry (22nd in league). But RB Knowshon Moreno (413 rush yards, 4.3 YPC) has done a great job of finding the end zone with an NFL-high eight touchdown runs, while helping his team post the NFL's best red zone efficiency (79%). The Broncos also lead the league in points (42.6 PPG), yards (469 YPG) and third-down conversions (53%). The defense has been a much different story though. Denver has been outstanding stopping the run with a league-leading 77 rushing YPG allowed on 3.3 YPC (2nd in NFL). But no team has allowed more passing yards than the Broncos (320 YPG), and the loss of CB Champ Bailey will certainly hurt. They give up 28.1 PPG (6th-worst in NFL) and are below average in both red zone efficiency (59%, 20th in league) and first downs allowed (25th in NFL). Denver, which tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks last year, has been lacking a stud pass rusher, which is why it has a pedestrian 19 sacks this season (T-13th in NFL). But with LB Von Miller likely to play more snaps in his second game back from a suspension, the Redskins offensive line has to be ready to account for Miller coming off the edge.

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-3) at DETROIT LIONS (4-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3 & 52
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -3 & 51

The surging Cowboys seek a third straight victory on Sunday when they visit a struggling Lions defense.

Detroit has allowed 420 total YPG since Week 3, but its offense has converted 44.2% of third downs (4th-best in NFL) and QB Matthew Stafford has been stellar (304 pass YPG, 15 TD, 4 INT). Dallas QB Tony Romo has nearly identical stats (287 pass YPG, 15 TD, 5 INT), but his team's defense has been stepped up big recently by holding the potent Redskins and Eagles offenses to 9.5 PPG in the past two games. The Cowboys are 5-2 SU in this series since 2003, but the Lions erased a 27-3 deficit (thanks in large part to two Romo pick-sixes) to win 34-30 in the most recent meeting in 2011. Both teams have some negative trends for this matchup though. Since 1992, Dallas is 5-22 ATS (19%) on the road after allowing nine points or less, and is 8-26 ATS (24%) away off two or more consecutive Unders since 1992. But Detroit is a dreadful 1-12 ATS versus excellent passing teams (completion pct. of at least 64%) over the past three seasons and 2-11 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons.

The Cowboys have scored 28.6 PPG this season (3rd in NFL) thanks to the league's third-best red-zone efficiency (68%). The Tony Romo-led air attack ranks eighth in the NFL with 269 passing YPG, with a huge contribution from WR Dez Bryant who has 569 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd in NFL). With starting WR Miles Austin still slowed by a hamstring injury, rookie WR Terrance Williams has put together four productive games in a row, grabbing 19 passes for 320 yards and three scores. Although the Dallas rushing attack has a mere 83 YPG (24th in NFL), it appears that starting RB DeMarco Murray will be able to return to action this week after missing the win at Philadelphia because of a knee injury. Murray has rushed for 428 yards on 4.7 YPC and is a huge upgrade from backup RB Joseph Randle, who is averaging just 2.7 YPC on his 30 attempts. On defense, Dallas has been doing a great job of creating turnovers with seven takeaways over the past three games. But this aggressiveness sometimes leads to big plays, as the Cowboys rank 30th in pass defense (292 YPG) and 29th in total defense (394 YPG). The pass rush has been strong this season though with 3+ sacks in five of the seven games.

Like Dallas, Detroit also has a pass-first offense with 295 passing YPG (5th in NFL), but just 92 rushing YPG (21st in league). And also like Dallas, the air attack includes an elite wide receiver in Calvin Johnson, who already has more touchdown catches (6 TD in six games) than he did last year (5 TD in 16 games). Johnson's knee injury finally appears to be a thing of the past, as he busted out for season highs in receptions (nine) and receiving yards (155) in last week's 27-24 loss to the Bengals. RB Reggie Bush is also a key to this offense both as a ball carrier and receiver, as he has 426 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and is second on the team in receiving yards with 305, totaling three touchdowns during his large workload. The Lions defense has generally struggled this season despite being on the field for just 28:22. They have given up the second-most yards in the NFL (397 YPG) and rank last in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.1 YPC). However, Detroit has stood tall when it has matter most with the NFL's fifth-best red zone defense (42%) and second-best defense on third downs (29.9%). But after generating 11 takeaways in its first four games, Detroit has forced just two turnovers in the past three contests. The pass rush has also been horrible recently with just four sacks over the past three games.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Patriots -6.5 & 46

Slumping AFC East foes square off Sunday when the Dolphins visit the Patriots.

Miami has dropped three straight games (SU and ATS), but the past two have come by a combined five points. New England has lost two of three, with those two defeats coming by 10 total points. These slides can both be attributed heavily to poor quarterback play over the past three weeks with Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill completing just 55% of his passes with 5 INT, while Pats QB Tom Brady has a 51% completion rate, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT and 13 sacks taken. But Brady has thrown for 283 YPG, 11 TD and 2 INT during a six-game SU win streak (4-1-1 ATS) over Miami. He might also get his top wide receiver back with Danny Amendola, who missed last Sunday's overtime loss to the Jets with a concussion, but has been practicing all week and expects to play against Miami. Although the Dolphins are in a free-fall, underdogs with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% after being beaten by the spread by 28+ points in their previous three games are 31-9 ATS (78%) over the past 10 seasons. However, New England is 11-2 ATS (85%) off a division game since the start of 2011, winning these games by an average score of 35 to 15.

Miami QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't been great lately, but he still tossed three touchdowns in last week's 23-21 loss to the Bills. However, his Dolphins managed just 16 total points in getting swept by the Patriots last year, as Tannehill completed only 51.6% of his passes for 421 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. But while Miami's air attack has been average this season (235 passing YPG, 16th in NFL), its ground game has been dreadful with just 78 rushing YPG (25th in league). Although top RB Lamar Miller has a respectable 254 yards on 59 carries (4.3 YPC), backup RB Daniel Thomas continues to drag this offense down with a mere 3.4 yards per carry on his 39 attempts. A big reason why the Dolphins have just 313 total YPG this season (6th-worst in NFL) is because they have the fourth-worst time of possession (27:27), but have done a great job on capitalizing on their opportunities with a 72.2% red-zone efficiency (2nd in the NFL. Defensively, Miami has really done a solid job against the run by holding teams to 103 YPG on 3.8 YPC, but the club has surrendered 269 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and has been on the field for 32:32 (5th-most in league). During their six-game losing skid to the Patriots, the Dolphins have forced a total of just three turnovers while committing 12 miscues. Top pass-rushing DE Cameron Wake played limited snaps last week in his return from a knee injury, but he expects to play his typical workload on Sunday. Wake has 4.5 sacks during his team's six-game losing skid to the Patriots.

Patriots QB Tom Brady might finally have his full complement of receivers to use this week if WR Danny Amendola (concussion) is cleared to play. Amendola has logged just one full game all year, but has still been targeted 27 times, resulting in 16 catches. Speaking of targets, Brady wasted no time in getting star TE Rob Gronkowski back in the flow of things with 17 targets, but due to some poor passes, Gronkowski pulled in just eight of those attempts, but still managed 114 yards. He has also fared quite well against the Dolphins with 21 catches for 308 yards and 3 TD in his past four meetings. The Patriots are averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt (3rd-worst in NFL), and have been subpar in the red zone as well with a 45.8% conversion rate (26th in NFL), two areas in which a healthy Gronkowski should provide a big boost in. Having a slightly above-average ground game (116 rushing YPG, 13th in NFL) hasn't helped much, but top RB Stevan Ridley has run very well in two games since returning from injury with 146 yards on 31 carries (4.7 YPC) and three touchdowns. The Patriots' defense hopes that top CB Aqib Talib, who missed last week's game with a hip injury, can return to action, but New England's run defense is a bigger concern without LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) and DTs Vince Wilfork (Achilles) and Tommy Kelly (knee). After allowing the Jets to keep the ball for 46:13 and gain 177 yards on 52 carries, the Patriots now rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense (127 YPG) and seventh-worst in time of possession (31:36). One area this defense has thrived in has been forcing turnovers with 13 takeaways in seven games.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 8

October 26, 2013

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Redskins are 11-0 ATS since Jan 07, 2006 as a dog of more than a point when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Steelers are 0-10 ATS since Oct 22, 2006 as a road favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last game as a favorite.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

LeSean McCoy is 10-0 OU (+6.5 ppg) in his career coming off a game where he caught at least six passes.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Packers are 10-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) since December 1997 when they are off a FG+ win last week in which they benefitted from 95+ yards of penalties.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

In at least week five of the season, when one team is averaging at least 31.14 ppg and the other team is averaging at least 23.5 ppg., games are 55-32 OU. Active on Denver.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Steelers are 10-0 OU since Dec 20, 2007 on the road when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks .

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

As teams start moving into the second round of their divisional matchups we can start factoring an element of revenge into equation and this week, the New York Giants are heading into Philadelphia looking for some payback after a 36-21 loss to the Eagles in Week 5. New York is playing on a short week after one of the more painful Monday nighters in recent memory and looking for win No. 2 on the season while trying to end its streak of eight-straight road losses dating back to Week 10, 2012.

This is a short turnaround situation meaning that the previous meeting was only two or three weeks ago and when the first game played “Over” the total, the general trend in game 2 shows 18 overs, 25 unders and a push. A closer look shows that Week 17 games went 0-5 O/U which makes sense since a lot of these games may have been less meaningful. Weather could also factor. That also means that before Week 17 the record is 18-20-1 O/U and look what happens when we apply conditions to the total and visiting team’s record:

Games with a total of 40 or more involving road teams with poor records show 10 overs, 2 unders and a push with the home team scoring an average of 32.9 points. Michael Vick’s health is key to this contest but keep an eye on that total. If Vick starts, consider backing the Giants and Eagles OVER 51 points.

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Total Talk - Week 8

October 26, 2013


Week 7 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-5-1 in Week 7. Five game saw 50 or more points posted on the scoreboard, with the highest-scoring result taking place in the Denver-Indianapolis affair, which saw 72 points posted. Including this result, the Broncos have now seen the ‘over’ cash in all seven of their games this season. Other ‘over’ teams to watch are the Bears (6-1), Rams (6-1) and Falcons (5-1). If you’re looking for a clear-cut ‘under’ team, it’s Kansas City. The Chiefs are 6-1 to the ‘under’ this season. In Week 11, the Broncos will host the Chiefs and it will be interesting to see what the opening total will be. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 56-48-2 through seven weeks.

Line Moves
The early line moves went 3-1 in Week 7 after back-to-back losing records. Overall, the line moves are 21-13-1 on the season. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which are sent out on Sunday evening.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Line opened 54 and dropped to 50 ½
Buffalo at New Orleans: Line opened 50 and dropped to 48
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Line opened 40 and jumped to 41 ½
Washington at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 58
Atlanta at Arizona: Line opened 45 and jumped to 46 ½
Green Bay at Minnesota: Line opened 50 and dropped to 47 ½

Non-Conference Overs

This seasonal trend continues to produce profits for total players. Last week, the ‘over’ went 2-1 in AFC-NFC matchups and could’ve been 3-0 if Cleveland and Green Bay could’ve mustered up a couple more points. Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ is now 24-11 (69%) in non-conference games. On Sunday, we have three more games that fit the trend.

San Francisco vs. Jacksonville (from London)
Buffalo at New Orleans
Washington at Denver

Back to London

The NFL International Series returns to London for the second time this season and eighth time overall. Total players had watched the ‘under’ cash in four of the first five matchups played at Wembley Stadium but the ‘over’ has connected in the last two installments. In Week 4, Minnesota outlasted Pittsburgh 34-27 in a back-and-forth contest filled with big plays.

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
2013 – Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 (Over 41)

This Sunday could be a tad different from the first go ‘round in London as San Francisco meets Jacksonville. The total is hovering between 40 and 41 points, which appears a little low when you know that the 49ers have put up 30-plus in five of their seven games. We all know the Jaguars are a mess but they have scored 17 or more in three of their four road games outside of Florida.

Divisional Angles

I personally like to use the vice versa angle as part of my handicapping in divisional matchups, especially when the first encounter is a crazy shootout or a very low-scoring affair. Still, it’s not the end-all when it comes to winning with totals but make a mental note going forward.

For example, the Jets and Patriots played for the second time this season last Sunday and the pair combined for 57 points after only putting up 23 points in the first go ‘round. I didn’t care for the ‘over’ because New England hasn’t shown much explosiveness this season and the Jets still have a rookie quarterback. While the outcome easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 43, keep in mind that both teams had pick-six touchdowns and the game went to overtime, which is always a dagger for ‘under’ tickets.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: This will be the second meeting between the teams this season as the Eagles beat the Giants 36-21 on the road in Week 5. It may seem that 57 points is a lot but the closing total was 54 and Philadelphia put up 14 points in the final 15 minutes thanks to Eli Manning setting them up with a pair of short tracks.

Miami at New England: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season. Prior to those results, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0 run in this series. After the ‘under’ started 5-0, the Patriots have watched their last two games ‘over.’ Miami has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1-1 this season.

Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)

Seattle at St. Louis: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ has gone 15-9 in primetime games this season and the most profitable trend has been the ‘over’ on Thursday, which cashed again this week albeit luckily in the Carolina-Tampa Bay affair.

Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played three times last season and the ‘under’ went 2-0 at Lambeau Field. In the regular season matchup from the Metrodome, the Vikings outlasted the Packers 37-34 in a wild shootout. QB Christian Ponder was solid (234 yards, 3 TDs) in that game and he’s starting this week after the Josh Freeman debacle last Monday. Minnesota’s defense had its best effort of the season last week at New York (23 points) but the Giants didn’t play great at all and still managed to put up five scores (3 FGs). The Packers defense has allowed 39 total points the last three weeks, which has helped the ‘under’ go 3-0 during this span.

Seattle at St. Louis: The Rams will start Kellen Clemens at quarterback, which makes you believe they’ll be limited offensively. Even with no offense, the St. Louis defense has allowed 20-plus in all three home games this season and Seattle enters this matchup with extra rest. Despite those facts, this series has seen the ‘under’ cash in five of the last six encounters.

Fearless Predictions

Back-to-back 1-3 weeks hasn’t helped the bankroll this season (-$250). As many of you know, field goals are often considered kryptonite to ‘over’ tickets and that was evident in last week’s play on the Texans-Chiefs matchup and team total. My Three-Team Total Teaser (1-5) record is embarrassing, but I’m not giving up with three months of action left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-New England 45
Best Under: Washington-Denver 58
Best Team Total: Over 19 ½ Miami

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Miami-New England
Over 41 ½ Dallas-Detroit
Under 67 Washington-Denver

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Week 8 Tip Sheet

October 26, 2013

Cowboys at Lions - 1:00 PM EST

Dallas: 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS
Detroit: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Lions have been up and down of late after losing on a last-second field goal in a 27-24 home defeat to the Bengals. Detroit has alternated wins and losses in the last four weeks, while suffering its first home defeat in three tries. The Cowboys' defense stepped up in a 17-3 victory at Philadelphia as three-point road underdogs, while improving to 3-0 inside the NFC East.

Previous meeting result: Detroit rallied from a 27-3 deficit to stun Dallas, 34-30 in 2011 at Cowboys Stadium. The Lions intercepted Tony Romo three times, including taking two of those picks back for touchdowns. Both Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant each grabbed two touchdowns receiving, but the Lions outscored the Cowboys, 24-3 to close out the victory.

Betting notes: Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have been terrific when receiving points on the road, going 7-2 ATS, including covers this season at Kansas City and Philadelphia. The Lions have struggled at home following a defeat at Ford Field, winning just once in six tries since 2010, while losing twice in this span as a favorite.

Browns at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

Cleveland: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Kansas City: 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS

Last week's results: The promising 3-2 start for Cleveland has fallen by the wayside after suffering consecutive defeats to NFC North opponents. The latest setback came at Green Bay in a 31-13 blowout loss to the Packers as 7 ½-point underdogs, the second straight week allowing 31 points. The Chiefs remained undefeated by holding off the short-handed Texans, 17-16 as seven-point home favorites. Kansas City has started the season by limiting each of its first seven opponents to 17 points or less.

Previous meeting result: The Browns destroyed the Chiefs in Cleveland, 30-7 last December as seven-point favorites. In the last matchup at Arrowhead Stadium in 2009, the Browns outlasted the Chiefs, 41-34, while cashing as one-point road 'dogs.

Betting notes: The Chiefs have split four games ATS-wise as a home favorite this season, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. Since the start of last season, Cleveland is just 3-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, including a 1-2 ATS mark in 2013.

Dolphins at Patriots - 1:00 PM EST

Miami: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
New England: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS

Last week's results: Each club lost a divisional contest as a favorite, as the Patriots were tripped up in overtime by the Jets, 30-27. Although New England is atop the AFC East, the Patriots haven't covered in three games against division opponents. The Dolphins fell behind the Bills, 14-0 last Sunday before grabbing a 21-17 lead in the third quarter. Buffalo kicked two late field goals to down Miami as six-point underdogs, 23-21.

Previous meeting result: The Patriots swept the season series from the Dolphins in 2012, which included a 28-0 shutout of Miami at Gillette Stadium in the final week. New England has won each of the last six meetings with Miami, while the Dolphins last won in Foxboro back in 2008.

Betting notes: New England has covered six of its last 10 off a loss since the start of the 2010 season, but the four non-covers have come as a favorite of 9 ½ points or more. The Dolphins have struggled off a home loss since December 2010, posting a 3-6 ATS record in the following contest.

Bills at Saints - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS
New Orleans: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS

Last week's results: Buffalo picked up its first road win in three tries with the 23-21 triumph at Miami, while also racking up its first cover on the highway this season. The Saints had last week off, but look to brush off the last-second defeat at New England in Week 6, dropping their first game of the season in a 30-27 setback.

Previous meeting result: New Orleans went into Buffalo in the third week of the 2009 campaign and routed the Bills, 27-7 as 5 ½-point road favorites. The Bills last visited the Superdome in 1998, as Hurricane Katrina forced Buffalo and New Orleans to San Antonio in 2005, a 19-7 win by the Saints.

Betting notes: Buffalo has eclipsed the 'over' in each of the last three games, even though each total was set at 43 ½ or lower. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of at least six points, while losing only one game by double-digits. The Saints have cashed seven of their last nine home contests dating back to last season, including a 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite.

Jets at Bengals - 4:05 PM EST

New York: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS
Cincinnati: 5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS

Last week's results: Cincinnati won its third straight game after edging Detroit, 27-24 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 3-0-1 ATS when getting points this season. The Jets covered for the second time against the Patriots this season in an overtime triumph as short home 'dogs, but New York hasn't won consecutive games yet in 2013.

Previous meeting result: New York dominated Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night in 2010 at home in a 26-14 victory as 10-point favorites. The Jets own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record under Rex Ryan against the Bengals since 2008.

Betting notes: The Bengals have been listed as a home favorite only once this season, while putting together a 1-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. The Jets have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games after hitting the 'under' in the opening two weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

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Las Vegas Sharps Report -NFL Week 8

Every Friday we’re happy to post our weekly look at how Wise Guys have been betting pro football. This information is based on line moves and consultations with those in the know in Las Vegas and offshore. Sharps are starting to find their footing recently after suffering through a very poor start to the 2013 football season. Once again, we’ll take the games in rotation order. Let’s jump right in!

SAN FRANCISCO AT JACKSONVILLE (in London):
Did oddsmakers not realize this was a neutral site game? The opener of San Francisco -14.5 was out of line with how little respect Jacksonville has been getting in recent weeks. Sharps immediately hit the Niners hard, driving the line up to -16.5 in short order. Some stores were testing SF -17 as we went to press. Sharps would come in back over the top on the Jags at +17.5…and possibly at +17 if that’s the best they see before kickoff and aim for a middle. Very odd that Denver would be -27 at home over the Jags, but that oddsmakers would think SF -14.5 on a neutral field made sense. Not much interest on the total. We won’t mention Over/Unders except in games where Sharps have shown a meaningful interest.

DALLAS AT DETROIT:
Very little betting interest in this game to this point. Detroit opened at -3 on its home field, which is where most everyone in the market thinks the line belongs. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number. Remember though that it takes A LOT of money to move an NFL game off a solid three. Some of the situational sharps are looking at Detroit because Dallas is playing on the road immediately after winning a road divisional game, while the Lions are at home off a home loss. The numbers guys think three is right.

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA:
Philadelphia opened at -6.5 on the assumption that Michael Vick would be back at quarterback. He is returning, but Sharps bet against the Eagles anyway because they’re not fond of Vick, and they like divisional revenge at more than a field goal. We’re now seeing Philadlephia at only -5.5 at most stores. The total has been bet down from 54 down to 51.5. Some of that is weather related…and some based skepticism about Vick as well as Chip Kelly’s offense in general as some believe the league is figuring out how to deal with the “Oregon” approach.

CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY:
Not much interest here, even with the news that Jason Campbell would start at quarterback for the Browns over Brandon Weeden. Sharps think Weeden is horrible. They want to see a good game from Campbell before investing in him. Sharps did make some money on Brian Hoyer before he got hurt. This is likely to be one of the least bet games on Sunday in terms of side and total. Kansas City at -7.5 does fall into the teaser window that Sharps like to play. So, Chiefs minus 1.5 will be placed in a lot of teasers from Sharps and squares alike if the line doesn’t move.

BUFFALO AT NEW ORLEANS:
Buffalo was a steam play last Sunday, and Sharps cashed in easily when the Bills beat the Dolphins outright as a road underdog. The same contingents are investing again here, as New Orleans -12.5 on the opener has been bet down to Buffalo +11 and even +10.5 on Sharp action. You know the public wouldn’t ever bet against Drew Brees at home against a team like the Bills. That’s Wise Guy money on Buffalo. The opening total of 50 is down in some places to 49 or 48.5.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND:
New England opened at -7, and was bet down quickly to what’s been a solid Miami +6.5 ever since. This is actually a strong move even though it’s only half a point. That’s because a key number was involved…and because it went AWAY from a home team the public usually likes to bet on. Sharps felt so strongly about Miami +7 that they didn’t want to risk missing out on it. If the public hits the Pats before kickoff to drive the line higher, Sharps will grab more of the Dolphins.

NY JETS AT CINCINNATI:
Similar story here with an opener of Cincinnati -7 being bet down to NY Jets +6.5. Sharps like what they’re seeing from the Jets defense this year…and they’re seeing more positive than negative with rooking quarterback Geno Smith. Also, Cincinnati hasn’t been playing like a blowout team this year. It’s easy to stay close with the Bengals given their style of play. The Over/Under has been bet up from 40 to 41, which is either the result of a nice weather forecast, or more affection for Geno Smith.

PITTSBURGH AT OAKLAND:
Another move toward the dog off a key number. And, this time is was off the magic number of three. The Steelers opened at -3 in this West Coast affair. Sharps bet Oakland down to +2.5 where it’s stayed ever since. That will put the Raiders in the teaser window for a move past the 3 and the 7 up to +8.5. It’s telling that there wasn’t any interest in Pittsburgh market-wise to take the game back to three. Sharps have been pleasantly surprised with Terrelle Pryor, though many did take a hit with him in the loss at Kansas City. Also in play, Oakland had a bye last week, giving them several extra days of rest and preparation.

WASHINGTON AT DENVER: T
he big move here was on the Over, as an opener of 55 shot way up to 58.5 and 59. Both defenses have struggled this season. Denver can light up the scoreboard against any poor defense. And, RGIII of the Redskins finally put up a big number last week against Chicago. Bad opening total! Denver has received some support as a team side, with an opener of -12 being bet up to -12.5. Redskins money would definitely come in at +14 if the public were to move the line that high…and might even come in at +13 if the public has soured on a Broncos team that’s stopped covering spreads.

ATLANTA AT ARIZONA:
No interest here on the opener of Arizona -2.5. But, the fact that the game didn’t move toward the key number of three is telling you a lot. If Sharps liked Arizona, they would have jumped on that -2.5 immediately. They didn’t bite at all. That tells you sharps will love Atlanta in teasers at +8.5…and would come in hard on the Falcons at +3 if the public were to back the host.

GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
Green Bay has been moved up from -7.5 to -9. Some of that is from sportsbooks who don’t want to deal with the Packers in teasers. A line -9 scoots them out of the teaser window. Note that the announcement that Christian Ponder was returning to start for the Vikings in place of Josh Freeman didn’t budge the number at all. Wise Guy action may come in on the Vikings on game day as a TD plus home dog against a hated divisional rival.

SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS (Monday Night): Seattle opened at -10, and was bet up to -11 even though the game is on the road. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Rams, who were reportedly trying to woo Brett Favre out of retirement. Nothing would kill a team’s hopes for the rest of the season faster than that! The opening total of 43 has been bet down to 42.5 and 42 on the assumption that Clemens will be overmatched by this elite Seattle defense.
Thats all this week, as always Good Luck Den!!!

[StarDust Bum]

Early Games:

Sunday, October 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -15 500 POD # 2

Jacksonville - Over 40 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -7.5 500

Kansas City - Under 39 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +6 500 POD # 4

New England - Under 46 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -11 500

New Orleans - Under 48.5 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -3 500 POD # 3

Detroit - Under 50.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants +5.5 500 POD # 1

Philadelphia - Over 49.5 500

[Udog]

Good luck today, Bum! There's some good stuff on the schedule today! Have fun!