The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

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Oakland Raiders


Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return

David Ausberry TE September 23, 2013 shoulder Out

Tyvon Branch S September 23, 2013 ankle Out

Miles Burris LB August 27, 2013 knee Placed on PUPL November 17, 2013
Comments: Burris begins 2013 on the physically unable to perform list.

Andre Holmes WR July 27, 2013 4 games (NFL Policy on PEDs) suspended October 6, 2013
Comments: Holmes has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances. The league announced the suspension Saturday.

Jason Hunter DE August 27, 2012 triceps IR September 1, 2013
Comments: Hunter was placed on injured reserve with a torn right triceps.

Lucas Nix G September 23, 2013 ankle Questionable

Menelik Watson T September 23, 2013 knee Out

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NFL

Monday, September 23

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Raiders at Broncos: What bettors need to know
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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 48.5)

The Denver Broncos have experienced little adversity in posting a pair of dominating wins to open the season, but that is about to change as they prepare to host the Oakland Raiders on Monday night. Peyton Manning is off to a sizzling start but he could be looking over his shoulder after the Broncos lost starting left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending Lisfranc foot injury. Denver has won 13 consecutive regular-season games, the longest winning streak in the NFL.

Oakland has split its first two games behind dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who was expected to be the team's backup before beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job in the preseason. Pryor conceded he has to make sure not to be preoccupied with the fact that Manning, the league's only four-time Most Valuable Player, is on the opposing sideline. “Peyton’s great and I can’t let that get into mind,” Pryor said. “I have to play my game and focus on my team."

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Denver opened as a 14-point fave and is now -14.5. The total opened 49.5 and dropped to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (1-1): Oakland's strategy to combat Manning and Denver's high-powered offense will likely be to play keep-away and rely on a running attack that averaged a league-best 198.5 yards in the first two games. Pryor has been an integral part of that success, setting a franchise record with 112 yards on the ground in a season-opening loss at Indianapolis while running back Darren McFadden rumbled for 129 yards in last week's 19-9 victory over Jacksonville. Oakland's defense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 261 yards allowed and will look to exploit Clady's absence with a unit that has collected nine sacks.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0): Manning's passer rating is off the charts at a league-leading 131.0 after throwing for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. He has weapons all over the field in the wide receiver troika of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to go with emerging tight end Julius Thomas, and former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno fortified the running game with a 93-yard, two-touchdown effort in last week's 41-23 win at the New York Giants. A defense that is missing suspended linebacker Von Miller could get a boost with the expected return of Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
* Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Denver.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning, who is 6-0 vs. the AFC West since joining the Broncos, is the only QB in league history with nine TDs versus zero picks in the opening two games.

2. Oakland is 11-2 when McFadden rushes for 100 yards.

3. The Broncos have outscored the opposition 66-24 in the second half.

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NFL

Monday, September 23

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Tale of the Tape: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
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Peyton Manning looks to build on a sensational start to the season as he and the Denver Broncos welcome the Oakland Raiders to town in Monday Night Football action. Manning's nine-touchdown, zero-interception performance led the Broncos to back-to-back one-sided victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants. Oakland opened with a narrow loss to Indianapolis before bouncing back to win against Jacksonville.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

There was no more potent offensive attack in football after the opening two weeks of the season than the Manning-led Broncos. Despite not having the same arm strength he had as a younger quarterback, Manning is as efficient as ever, completing 67 percent of his passes while racking up more than 750 yards. The Broncos' third-ranked pass attack has taken a lot of emphasis away from the running game, which has been mediocre at the best of times (21st in average rushing yards entering Sunday). Knowshown Moreno scored twice last week, but the Denver rushing committee has been largely inconsistent.

The Raiders are the polar opposite of their Monday opponent, struggling with the passing game but boasting one of the more robust rush attacks in football. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor is finding things difficult without an established No. 1 receiver, having to rely on unheralded Rod Streater (eight catches, 112 yards) to lead the way. Pryor has no such concerns when he scrambles, leading all QBs with 162 rushing yards. He and Darren McFadden (177 yards, TD) form the strongest 1-2 running punch in the league so far, but should meet plenty of resistance against a stout Denver rush defense.

Edge: Denver


Defense

Baltimore and New York could do next to nothing on the ground against Denver, averaging fewer than 41 yards per game with a two yards-per-carry average. The Broncos haven't allowed a run of more than 14 yards to date - and with an offense that is averaging 45 points per game, that means plenty of garbage-time passing opportunities for the opposition. This may explain why Denver has surrendered a whopping 688 yards through the air so far - its 111 pass attempts against is third only to Philadelphia and Kansas City, who have each played an extra game.

The Oakland defense has been one of the league's biggest early-season surprises. Though it helps to have played a game against the anemic Jaguars' offense, the Raiders have looked solid defensively while holding their opponents to an average of 180.5 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), 80.5 rushing yards (ninth) and 13 points. The Jacksonville game was particularly encouraging, as the Jaguars managed just 34 rushing yards on 19 carries and were held out of the end zone until the game was well out of reach with 2:53 remaining.

Edge: Oakland


Special Teams

After two full weeks and the early Week 3 game, the Broncos remain the only NFL team with a punt-return touchdown - courtesy Trindon Holliday, whose 81-yard return TD punctuated Denver's 41-23 win over the Giants in Week 2. While Holliday's impressive return inflates the Denver punt-return totals, the Broncos would still rank in the top three in yardage even without it. Denver sits in the middle of the pack in kickoff-return defense (24.2 yards allowed per kick) and has had a punt returned just three times, allowing an average return of 8.7 yards (12th-highest).

The Raiders haven't had many punt returns, but aside from a 30-yard jaunt, they haven't fared well - averaging just two yards on their other four attempts. Oakland ranks 12th in kickoff return yardage at 24.3 per attempt, but has only had three through the opening two weeks. The Raiders are one of only 11 teams to hold opponents to less than 20 yards per kickoff return (19.8), and have had just two punts returned at an average of 14 yards per attempt. Oakland is one of only three teams without an opponent fair catch.

Edge: Denver


Notable Quotables

"It's hard to fool that guy. He's seen a lot. He does a great job in preparation. It'll be hard to fool him. It's going to come down to execution. We're going to have to execute our jobs." -- Oakland head coach Dennis Allen on Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning

"They'll give you a lot of looks. They've got good guys doing it. I think they've improved on the back end, and I think they've improved playing team defense." -- Broncos head coach John Fox on the Oakland pass rush

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Monday, September 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 8:40 PM ET Denver -16 500 POD # 2

Denver - Under 48.5 500 POD # 1

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NFL Week 4 opening line report: Books coming off winning Sunday

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.

While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.

“The Browns were a huge, huge game. We had an obscene amount of teasers on the Vikings,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The sharps and public were all on the Giants. Everybody was betting the Giants like it was free money.”

Chalk one up for the bad guys. But perhaps the betting public will have its revenge in Week 4, which has more than a few tricky spreads and totals to tangle with. Maybe the hardest game to get a handle on is the 0-3 vs. 3-0 matchup between the winless Giants and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Chiefs -4.5 but the books have watched that spread shorten to K.C. -3.5 with early money on the road team.

“I don’t know why the early money is on New York,” says Korner. “Not sure if it’s the ‘due factor’ with them or if it’s wiseguys trying to draw it down before coming back strong on gameday. I don’t see the value in them coming off a road game and heading into an even tougher road spot.”

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3, 43)

The Seahawks made a believer out of bettors by topping the 20-point spread versus Jacksonville Sunday, and books are following that with a statement spread in Week 4. Seattle is a field-goal fave in Houston and could go even higher by kickoff.

“They are the team right now and we don’t want to be caught short,” says Korner. “Seattle is drawing money at -19 and -20 and Houston hasn’t had the results to warrant them being a favorite here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Pick, 41)

Two 0-3 teams jump the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in London, England. I bet the Brits are pumped for that…

According to Korner, oddsmakers just toss out the home-field edge when factoring these games in London. And, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh both showing very little to start the year, this game was sent out with a suggested spread at a pick’em.

“What’s a better number than that?” Korner says of the pick spread. “We’re weary of the total, because of the weather there. It’s often rainy.”

The total for Sunday’s overseas showcase was sent out at 41 points. The forecast for London is calling for rain, with a chance of thunderstorms and evening showers Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10, 55)

Two of the fastest offenses in the league clash in this Week 4 track meet.

The Eagles attack is averaging 207.7 rushing yards – tops in the NFL – and 26.3 points while the Broncos are No. 1 in passing – 376 yards – and scoring, at 45 points per game heading into Monday night. Neither side is great at defense either, making for one big total.

“We put out 55 but it’s up as high as 58 out there now,” says Korner. “We’ll likely be suggesting a move up as well. Two teams known for scoring, and the Eagles don’t play any defense. The Broncos have all those offensive weapons. I could see this going higher.”

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)

The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.

“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting."

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NFL betting: Faves 4-0 in last four London games

The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as a pick, bettors should make note of where it swings as the fave has covered in four-straight games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the seventh consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are two games to be held on British soil this season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers playing there on Oct. 27.

There are a couple of trends through the first six games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Steelers versus Vikings game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in four consecutive matchups and is 4-2 overall in these games.

Last season, the Pats crushed the Rams 45-7 and covered as 7.5-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 2-4 in the six games and the under was on a three-game streak before the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total last season.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.

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Week 3 Betting Recap

September 24, 2013

Betting Notes
-- Home teams went 11-5 straight up in Week 3
-- Home teams are 32-16 SU through three weeks
-- Favorites went 11-5 straight up in Week 3
-- Favorites are 35-13 SU through three weeks
-- Favorites went 9-5-2 against the spread in Week 3
-- Favorites are 23-22-3 ATS through three weeks

-- Kansas City (+3), Cleveland (+7), Cincinnati (+3), Carolina (+2 ½), Indianapolis (+10 ½) were the five underdogs that won outright
-- The Colts’ 27-7 win at San Francisco in Week 3 was the biggest upset of the season. Indianapolis had money-line odds as high as 4/1 (Bet $100 to $400)

-- There were two pushes in Week 3
-- Tennessee (-3) defeated San Diego 20-17 and Denver (-16) defeated Oakland 37-21

Total Notes
-- The ‘under’ went 9-7 in Week 3
-- Through three weeks, the ‘under’ is 25-23
-- Chicago, Denver, Minnesota and Green Bay have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0
-- Kansas City, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and New England have all seen the ‘under’ go 3-0

League Notes
-- Miami and Seattle are the only teams to start the season 3-0 both SU and ATS
-- There are four teams that have failed to win or cover a game this season – Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington
-- The AFC has gone 12-3 against the NFC this season. The three wins earned by the NFC came from Seattle against Jacksonville in Week 3 and two victories from Chicago, who beat Cincinnati in Week 1 and Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Power Rankings and Projections
Every Tuesday, Tony Mejia offers up his NFL Power Poll and Predictions. After watching the AFC continue its dominance in Week 3, it’s no surprise which group he’s high on.

He explained, "Given San Francisco's early issues and a 1-3 week from the division as a whole, there's a new No. 1 here. Similarly, the NFC East continued to disappoint, going 1-3 as well. Is it true that the Cowboys are the most consistent, dependable team among the league's most visible foursome? That's a scary thought. With three teams in the Top 15, the AFC South suddenly looks formidable in spite of being home to Jacksonville. The Colts made the NFL's biggest statement in Week 3, so with three 2-1 teams, the division gets bumped to No. 1 in spite of Houston's disastrous performance in Baltimore. The AFC East also has three teams with winning records, so despite being rightfully dubious, there's no choice but to move them up substantially."

Tony’s Division Rankings and Playoff Projections listed below:

Division Rankings
1) AFC South
2) AFC North
3) NFC West
4) AFC East
5) NFC South
6) NFC North
7) AFC West
8) NFC East

Playoff Projections
NFC
1) Seattle
2) Atlanta
3) Chicago
4) Dallas
5) San Francisco
6) New Orleans

AFC
1) Denver
2) New England
3) Houston
4) Baltimore
5) Cincinnati
6) Indianapolis

LVH adjusts Futures

Despite owning the early bragging rights, Jay Kornegay and his staff of oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino SuperBook believe the NFC has more depth and the conference would be a favorite in this year’s finale.

Super Bowl XLVIII Early Game Line (2/2/14)
NFC -1
AFC Total 49 ½

Last week, the LVH had this line at a pick ‘em. Along with the NFC getting a slight push, the total also dropped from 50 ½ to 49 ½ points.

The LVH futures have also been adjusted after three weeks of play and most of the attention at the betting counter has been given to the unbeaten teams. New Orleans dropped from 18/1 to 10/1 to win Super Bowl XLVIII and Chicago moved from 25/1 to 12/1. Kansas City (20/1) and Miami (25/1) are two other undefeated clubs that were adjusted.

Below are the current odds at the LVH SuperBook and the Preseason Odds that were offered prior to Week 1.


Odds to Win 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII

Team Current Odds Preseason Odds
Denver Broncos 7/2 5/1
Seattle Seahawks 7/2 7/1
New England Patriots 8/1 9/1
San Francisco 49ers 10/1 7/1
New Orleans Saints 10/1 18/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1 9/1
Chicago Bears 12/1 25/1
Cincinnati Bengals 14/1 25/1
Dallas Cowboys 20/1 30/1
Houston Texans 20/1 10/1
Kansas City Chiefs 20/1 50/1
Baltimore Ravens 25/1 30/1
Miami Dolphins 25/1 40/1
Indianapolis Colts 30/1 30/1
Atlanta Falcons 30/1 16/1
Tennessee Titans 50/1 100/1
Detroit Lions 50/1 50/1
New York Jets 75/1 70/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 100/1 20/1
New York Giants 100/1 20/1
Washington Redskins 100/1 251
San Diego Chargers 100/1 60/1
Carolina Panthers 100/1 40/1
Philadelphia Eagles 100/1 70/1
Buffalo Bills 200/1 100/1
St. Louis Rams 200/1 50/1
Cleveland Browns 200/1 50/1
Arizona Cardinals 200/1 100/1
Minnesota Vikings 300/1 60/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 300/1 70/1
Oakland Raiders 300/1 300/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 9999/1 300/1




Odds to Win 2014 NFC Championship

Team Current Odds Preseason Odds
Seattle Seahawks 7/4 7/2
San Francisco 49ers 9/2 7/2
New Orleans Saints 9/2 9/1
Green Bay Packers 11/2 5/1
Chicago Bears 11/2 13/1
Dallas Cowboys 10/1 15/1
Atlanta Falcons 15/1 8/1
Detroit Lions 25/1 25/1
New York Giants 50/1 10/1
Washington Redskins 50/1 13/1
Carolina Panthers 50/1 20/1
Philadelphia Eagles 50/1 35/1
St. Louis Rams 100/1 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 150/1 35/1
Minnesota Vikings 150/1 30/1




Odds to Win 2014 AFC Championship

Team Current Odds Odds - Preseason
Denver Broncos 3/2 2/1
New England Patriots 7/2 7/2
Cincinnati Bengals 6/1 11/1
Houston Texans 9/1 4/1
Kansas City Chiefs 9/1 23/1
Miami Dolphins 11/1 18/1
Baltimore Ravens 11/1 13/1
Indianapolis Colts 13/1 14/1
Tennessee Titans 23/1 45/1
New York Jets 30/1 30/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 45/1 9/1
San Diego Chargers 45/1 28/1
Cleveland Browns 90/1 23/1
Buffalo Bills 90/1 45/1
Oakland Raiders 135/1 125/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 4500/1 125/1

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 4 upon us..........

-- Chargers covered once in their last nine games vs NFC teams.

-- Giants failed to cover their last six road games.

-- Rams are 6-2-1 in last nine games as a home underdog.

-- Jacksonville is 5-12 vs spread in its last 17 home games.

-- Bengals are 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite.

-- Eagles are 3-7 in their last ten games as an underdog.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

32) Jaguars—They should trade Maurice Jones-Drew for draft picks; whats the use of having a bigtime runner if you’re never ahead? They need help, as in a lot of new players. Do what the Rams/Browns did; let the star RB go and eventually strengthen the rest of your team.

31) Giants—Tough times for Coach Coughlin, who had to bury his younger brother this week after he died in a freak accident.

30) Steelers—Ben Roethlisberger is a warrior; he hung in there Sunday and fought hard, not always well, but he took a lot of shots and competed until the end. Much like the Giants, Pitt’s OL is fouled up and as a result, so is their season. Going to be a long flight to London.

29) Buccaneers—Their last two head coaches have both been guys who had never been NFL coordinators; could the next coach be Lovie Smith? He’d be a major upgrade over the last two.

So they benched Josh Freeman for rookie Mike Glennon, who was the guy that replaced Russell Wilson at NC State when the coach cut Wilson loose before his senior season. Coach was fired within 18 months.

28) Redskins—They played a fun game Sunday (both teams had over 400 total yards) but fun doesn’t matter if your career rests on winning. At 0-3, they really, really need a win this week, at Oakland.

8) Cowboys—I’m thinking USC fired the wrong Kiffin last year.

7) Saints—Still amazing the league suspended Sean Payton for the same length of time as Greg Williams, when the whole bounty thing was Williams’ doing. Too bad Saints-Titans don’t play each other this season.

6) Chiefs—Can the NFL give Andy Reid Coach of the Year in September? How about Alex Smith being 3-0 while the 49ers are 1-2?

5) Dolphins—Ryan Tannehill was a WR at Texas A&M until he was a junior. His OC now is Mike Sherman, who was his coach at A&M and used to be coach of the Packers. They're off to a 3-0 start, but if my franchise QB was as inexpereinced as Taneyhill, I'd get him a better QB guru than he has to help Sherman have a more productive offense..

4) Patriots—They’re going to keep coaching those young WRs; they’re going to keep getting better as the season goes on, just wait and see.

3) Bears—Defense is still forcing turnovers and Cutler’s play has improved under Trestman’s tutelage.

2) Seahawks—Interesting game this week at Houston.

1) Broncos—Without looking it up, who is:
a) the Broncos' backup QB and b) the offensive coordinator for Denver?

If you say Peyton Manning is the OC, you get partial credit.

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NFL Week 4 opening line report: Books coming off winning Sunday

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.

While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.

“The Browns were a huge, huge game. We had an obscene amount of teasers on the Vikings,” MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jay Rood told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The sharps and public were all on the Giants. Everybody was betting the Giants like it was free money.”

Chalk one up for the bad guys. But perhaps the betting public will have its revenge in Week 4, which has more than a few tricky spreads and totals to tangle with. Maybe the hardest game to get a handle on is the 0-3 vs. 3-0 matchup between the winless Giants and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Chiefs -4.5 but the books have watched that spread shorten to K.C. -3.5 with early money on the road team.

“I don’t know why the early money is on New York,” says Korner. “Not sure if it’s the ‘due factor’ with them or if it’s wiseguys trying to draw it down before coming back strong on gameday. I don’t see the value in them coming off a road game and heading into an even tougher road spot.”

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3, 43)

The Seahawks made a believer out of bettors by topping the 20-point spread versus Jacksonville Sunday, and books are following that with a statement spread in Week 4. Seattle is a field-goal fave in Houston and could go even higher by kickoff.

“They are the team right now and we don’t want to be caught short,” says Korner. “Seattle is drawing money at -19 and -20 and Houston hasn’t had the results to warrant them being a favorite here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Pick, 41)

Two 0-3 teams jump the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in London, England. I bet the Brits are pumped for that…

According to Korner, oddsmakers just toss out the home-field edge when factoring these games in London. And, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh both showing very little to start the year, this game was sent out with a suggested spread at a pick’em.

“What’s a better number than that?” Korner says of the pick spread. “We’re weary of the total, because of the weather there. It’s often rainy.”

The total for Sunday’s overseas showcase was sent out at 41 points. The forecast for London is calling for rain, with a chance of thunderstorms and evening showers Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10, 55)

Two of the fastest offenses in the league clash in this Week 4 track meet.

The Eagles attack is averaging 207.7 rushing yards – tops in the NFL – and 26.3 points while the Broncos are No. 1 in passing – 376 yards – and scoring, at 45 points per game heading into Monday night. Neither side is great at defense either, making for one big total.

“We put out 55 but it’s up as high as 58 out there now,” says Korner. “We’ll likely be suggesting a move up as well. Two teams known for scoring, and the Eagles don’t play any defense. The Broncos have all those offensive weapons. I could see this going higher.”

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)

The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.

“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting."

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 4 lines have been on the board since late Sunday at some books which is more than enough time for the betting markets to force the oddsmakers’ hands and adjust those original odds. We talk to online sportsbooks about the biggest mid-week line moves heading toward the weekend:

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans – Open: 43.5, Move: 41.5

The total for this highly-anticipated matchup has been trimmed as many as two points at some books, with early action expecting a defensive stalemate. Seattle is tops in the league, allowing just nine points on 241.7 yards per game. Houston is right behind them, giving up only 249 yards per contests through the first three weeks.

Sharp money has come in on the Under but bookmakers expect the public to look to the Over, after the Seahawks scored 45 points in a blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday.

“It’s still very early, but so far we’ve written more bets on the Over,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “But, we very much respect the Under action more than the Over action.”

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9.5, Move: +7.5

As mentioned above, the Jaguars are coming off a thrashing in Seattle but the early action has trimmed this spread as many as two points. The Colts have a bad habit of finding themselves in close games – no matter the level of competition – and could be bound for a letdown after upsetting San Francisco last Sunday.

“This line definitely looks heavy on Indianapolis, but it’s hard not to favor them by a good amount,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “It’s a lot of points to give on the road, but you can’t say Jacksonville is worth too much regardless if it’s at home or on the road. Indy is one of our heavier-played teams so far, and Jacksonville is about as friendless as you can be for a mid-week position. I can’t see this going anywhere but towards Indianapolis.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

This neutral-site game in London, England features two 0-3 squads looking for their first win – regardless of what country it comes in. Despite an embarrassing loss to Chicago on Sunday Night Football, the betting market is still behind the Steelers – especially with Minnesota QB Christian Ponder listed as questionable with a rib injury.

“Ponder’s backup Matt Cassell isn’t that much of a downgrade from Ponder. We feel bettors are going to back the Steelers in this game,” says Childs.

With this game taking place at Wembley Stadium, UK books usually take extra action on these NFL England showcases. However, according to Black, the winless records of both sides are keeping the early action at bay. He does expect more money to come closer to kickoff Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

The Cowboys impressed enough people with their thumping of St. Louis last week to move this spread off the fence and as many as 2.5 points. That, coupled with San Diego’s poor defense and bad habit of imploding late in the game has this line teetering on the key number of three.

“Action so far is pretty split,” says Black. “And it’s hard to tell where this line will go, but I would say it stays pretty solid where it is, barring any unforeseen news.”

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

The Patriots have fallen out of favor with bettors after a not-so-impressive 3-0 start. New England has squeaked by the Bills and Jets, and took advantage of a crumbling Tampa Bay team last weekend.

Atlanta isn’t that hot right now either, falling to 1-2 after a loss to Miami in Week 3. Last year, the Falcons didn’t suffer their second loss until Week 14. According to Childs, both sharp and public money on Atlanta has pushed the opener as many as 2.5 points.

“That’s a pretty big move considering the team they are facing, a 3-0 Pats team that the public usually loves to back,” says Childs. “From the support the Falcons are seeing in this game, it’s a testament that people are very down on the Patriots and don’t buy their 3-0 start against arguably the worst teams in the NFL.”

Childs does believe there will be some buyback on New England as an underdog. With this being the Sunday Night Football matchup – often the banker game for an NFL Sunday – he says books will be cheering for the Patriots, which is a rare occurrence in NFL betting.

“It might be a welcome change for us to root for the Pats and the plus points,” he says.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

San Francisco at St. Louis
The 49ers look to snap their two-game losing skid and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. San Francisco is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 101-102: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.518; St. Louis 128.169
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 12; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

Game 199-200: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.046; Minnesota 125.186
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Baltimore at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.136; Buffalo 133.522
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.652; Cleveland 127.172
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-4); Over

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.551; Jacksonville 117.807
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 17; 39
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Seattle at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.172; Houston 138.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Arizona at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.499; Tampa Bay 127.670
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Under

Game 211-212: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.060; Detroit 136.676
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: NY Giants at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.611; Kansas City 128.558
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+4 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: NY Jets at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.351; Tennessee 133.411
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Dallas at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.385; San Diego 134.289
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2); Over

Game 219-220: Washington at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.843; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Philadelphia at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.533; Denver 143.830
Dunkel Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over

Game 223-224: New England at Atlanta (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.093; Atlanta 140.950
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 225-226: Miami at New Orleans (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; New Orleans 141.914
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/26/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-129 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 29

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) vs. MINNESOTA (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 3) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-65 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 30

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MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 0) - 9/30/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 26

8:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-7-1 SU in its last 10 games ,when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco


Sunday, September 29

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Houston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Jets last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DENVER
Philadelphia is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. OAKLAND
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN DIEGO
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home


Monday, September 30

8:40 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Miami

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's Game

49ers (1-2) @ Rams (1-2)—Both sides desperate after losing last two games; Rams looked lost in falling behind 21-0/24-0 in games at Atlanta/Dallas, after they rallied back from down 11 to nip Arizona in opener. 49ers scored one TD on 21 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs, completing 26-55 passes in losses by 26-20 points- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 divisional games, 4-0 as favorite of 3 or less points under Harbaugh. Rams are 10-5 as underdogs under Fisher, but 0-2 this year; they went 1-0-1 SU vs 49ers LY, after going 1-7 in previous eight series games, but SF has lost two of last three visits here. Home teams in divisional games are 11-4 vs spread so far this season. Rams are protecting Bradford better but WRs are not making plays and running game (57 ypg) has been non-existent. Long trip on short week for 49er team whose two best defensive players are either missing: Smith (alcohol rehab), or banged-up: Willis (wrist).




NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Thursday Night Football betting: 49ers at Rams
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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3, 41.5)

Less than eight months removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the San Francisco 49ers are immersed in controversy on and off the field heading into Thursday night's matchup at the St. Louis Rams. San Francisco has dropped two straight, including a stunning 27-7 defeat at home to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. No team played the 49ers tougher last season than the AFC West rival Rams, who battled to a 24-24 tie in San Francisco and beat them in overtime in St. Louis.

The 49ers' issues go beyond back-to-back inept performances - the team is under siege for allowing sack specialist Aldon Smith to play in Sunday's game only two days after he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence. Smith, who has a history of off-field issues, will enter a rehab facility to receive treatment and will miss Thursday's game. St. Louis is seeking a bounce-back effort after it was demolished by the Dallas Cowboys 31-7.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The 49ers opened as a 3.5-point road favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total opened as high as 43.5 and has been moved down to 41.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-2.5) + Rams (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = St. Louis +4.5

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Losing in Seattle in Week 2 wasn't a surprise for San Francisco, but getting bulldozed by the Colts on both sides of the ball sent shock waves through the league. Colin Kaepernick turned in a breathtaking performance by throwing for 412 yards in the season opener but has tossed four interceptions and been limited to a combined 277 yards while leading the 49ers to only 10 points in the past two weeks. The absence of tight end Vernon Davis (hamstring) hurt versus the Colts, while the normally stout defense saw All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis exit Sunday's game with a groin injury.

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-2, 0-3 ATS): St. Louis posted a gritty comeback victory over Arizona in its season opener but has fallen behind by at least 21 points in back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Dallas. Quarterback Sam Bradford threw for a season-low 240 yards and was sacked six times against the Cowboys while receiving little help from a ground game that saw starting running back Daryl Richardson play only one snap due to a foot injury. Rookie wideout Tavon Austin, the team's first-round draft pick, has six receptions in each of the first three games but is averaging only 6.6 yards per catch.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis..
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kaepernick made his third career start at St. Louis last season and had a safety and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD.

2. The Rams tied for the lead league with 52 sacks last season, but have only seven through the first three games.

3. LB Smith was second in the league with 19.5 sacks in 2012 and has registered 37 in 35 games.


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NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Tale of the tape: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
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The NFC West was supposed to be the power conference but the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams have come off the tracks to start the year. One will right the ship while the other one will continue its slide when they meet on Thursday Night Football. We break down both sides with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Niners offense has stalled to start the season, averaging just 14.7 points – 29th in the NFL. Injuries have depleted their once-potent offense, including a hamstring ailment for TE Vernon Davis. He’s questionable for Thursday but did return to practice this week. The Niners’ rushing attack has lost its teeth, with QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore averaging only 101.7 yards on the ground.

The Rams are coming off a 31-7 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. St. Louis missed out on plenty of gains due to careless drops by its receiving corps. QB Sam Bradford, who hadn’t been sacked in the first two games, was sacked six times and knocked down numerous others. The rushing attack is limping out for only 57 yards an outing, behind RB Daryl Richardson.

Edge: San Francisco

Defense

St. Louis has been a cupcake on defense, giving up 28.7 points per game – 27th in the NFL. The Rams biggest issue is their passing defense, which is allowing 288 yards through the air. However, they were bulldozed by Dallas RB DeMarco Murray for 175 yards last week. In their last meeting, San Francisco rushed for 148 yards versus the Rams.

The Niners defense is also a broken unit, with Aldon Smith in rehab, Patrick Willis nursing a groin injury and Justin Smith slowed by a bum shoulder. San Francisco budged for 179 yards rushing in a loss to the Colts last weekend and 172 yards in Week 2’s defeat to the Seahawks. The 49ers do ranked eighth versus the pass – 199 yards per game – which is pretty good considering they’ve faced Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.

Edge: San Francisco

Special teams

With two teams struggling to find the end zone, field goals could determine Thursday’s game. San Francisco kicker Phil Dawson is 4 for 5 on FG attempts, missing a 40-plus yarder. St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein is a perfect 5 for 5, connecting on his lone 40-plus yard attempt.

The Rams kick returner Benny Cunningham is averaging 23.4 yards per kickoff return but St. Louis is picking up just 3.3 yards per punt return. St. Louis had a return TD burned by penalties last Sunday. The 49ers’ Perrish Cox is picking up 27.3 yards per kick return and Kyle Williams is averaging only 5.5 yards per punt return.

San Francisco punter Andy Lee has been busy, punting 16 times this season for 46.1 yards per punt. Rams punter Johnny Hekker is second in the NFC, averaging 48.8 yards on 14 punts this season.

Edge: Draw

Notable quotable

"Everybody goes through situations like this. A tipped ball, a shoe-string tackle on a third-down scramble by the quarterback where he has 40 yards to run. Their offense is a huge concern of ours because they're so talented and well coached. We're going to have to play real good defense this week." – Rams coach Jeff Fisher.

"We've just got to get back to us, and being one. We'll be fine. We feel we can do whatever we want, like before." – Niners RB Frank Gore after arguing with head coach Jim Harbaugh on his lack of carries.


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NFL

Thursday, September 26

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Trends - San Francisco at St. Louis
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ATS Trends

San Francisco

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
49ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
49ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.
49ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
49ers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.

St. Louis

Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC West.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 18-40-2 ATS in their last 60 games in September.
Rams are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Rams are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.


OU Trends

San Francisco

Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 12-2 in 49ers last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. NFC.
Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers last 6 games in Week 4.
Under is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games on turf.
Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

St. Louis

Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 4.
Over is 5-1 in Rams last 6 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 8-3 in Rams last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 7-3-1 in Rams last 11 games in September.
Under is 9-4-1 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.


Head to Head

Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 26

San Francisco at St. Louis, 8:25 ET NFL
San Francisco: 30-14 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
St. Louis: 23-40 ATS in September

[StarDust Bum]

49ers at Rams

September 26, 2013


The NFC West was expected to be one of the top divisions in football this season. Past the Seahawks and their 3-0 start, the other three clubs are a combined 3-6, as two of those squads meet up in St. Louis on Thursday night. The Rams gave the 49ers plenty of problems in 2012, while San Francisco faces its own offensive issues heading into Week 4.

After putting up 34 points in the season-opening victory over the Packers, the Niners have tallied a combined 10 points in consecutive losses to the Seahawks and Colts. Indianapolis and San Francisco exchanged rushing touchdowns early on, but the Colts reeled off 20 unanswered points over the last three quarters to pound the Niners, 27-7. The Colts cashed outright as 10 ½-point underdogs, while the total easily went 'under' 45 ½. The San Francisco rushing defense was torched by the Colts' ground game for 179 yards, including 95 yards from former Giants' standout Ahmad Bradshaw.

Colin Kaepernick led the Niners to a Super Bowl appearance last season, but the young quarterback has thrown for just 277 yards and no touchdowns in the last two losses. San Francisco will likely get tight end Vernon Davis back in the lineup after sitting out last week with a hamstring injury, the first missed game for the ex-Maryland star since 2007. The Niners are one of 12 teams in the league not to amass a total of 1,000 yards through three games, while only three clubs have scored fewer points than San Francisco so far (Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville).

The Rams stunned the Cardinals in Week 1 with a fourth-quarter rally, but St. Louis has failed to cover in each of the first three weeks. Jeff Fisher's squad has fallen behind early in each of the two last losses at Atlanta and Dallas, trailing by as many as 21 to the Falcons and 24 to the Cowboys. St. Louis was chased out early in last Sunday's 31-7 defeat at Dallas, never coming close as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The Rams allowed nearly 400 yards to the Cowboys, including 175 yards on the ground from DeMarco Murray.

Both San Francisco and St. Louis have allowed at least 24 points in each of their three games, but it hasn't resulted in a 3-0 mark to the 'over,' The 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the last two contests in spite of allowing 56 points in this span, while the Rams are 2-1 to the 'over,' even though St. Louis' defense has given up 62 points the last two weeks.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero breaks down San Francisco's ineffective offense, "Anquan Boldin had a remarkable debut with the 49ers, but he's disappeared since. San Francisco's receiving corps has been unable to create openings for Kaepernick, contributing greatly to the offensive struggles, so expect their matchup with St. Louis' secondary to dictate everything. The total-deciding tempo and the game's eventual winner hinges on what happens when Kaepernick aggressively looks to force throws downfield. Jonathan Baldwin, acquired from Kansas City for fellow first-round bust A.J. Jenkins, could play a key role."

Last season, the Rams cashed in each of the two meetings with the 49ers, although St. Louis didn't pull off the sweep. St. Louis went into Candlestick Park last November as 13 ½-point underdogs and fought to a 24-24 tie with San Francisco, as Sam Bradford threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns. This game was actually the first of the new era at quarterback for Kaepernick, who replaced an injured Alex Smith in the second half for San Francisco.

The Rams battled the Niners to overtime once again in the second matchup at the Edward Jones Dome, as St. Louis held off San Francisco, 16-13 to cash as 7 ½-point home 'dogs. San Francisco's defense stepped up by limiting St. Louis to a pair of 53+ yard field goals, while the Rams' defense was responsible for a safety and a touchdown on an errant lateral. The Rams have covered three straight home meetings with the Niners, including each of the last two in the underdog role.

Since Fisher arrived on the St. Louis sidelines in 2012, the Rams own a 6-1 ATS record against NFC West foes, with the lone non-cover coming against Arizona in Week 1. However, St. Louis has put together a 5-1-1 SU mark within the division since the start of last season, while winning four consecutive home games against NFC West opponents.

On the flip side, Jim Harbaugh's club has struggled to cash inside the division by posting a dreadful 1-9 ATS record the last 10 games against NFC West teams since December 2011. However, the Niners are 3-3 straight-up the last six divisional road contests in this span, which includes a 34-27 win at St. Louis to close 2011 as 12 ½-point favorites.

The 49ers are listed as three-point road favorites tonight, but expect that number to get pushed up to 3 ½ by game-time with much of the public money going on San Francisco. The total is set at 42 across the board, as things get underway in St. Louis at 8:25 PM EST and the contest can be seen on the NFL Network.