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Tech Trends - Week 4

September 24, 2013

Thursday, Sept. 26 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams Rams played SF tough LY, 1-0-1 SU and covered both. Fisher 1-4 vs. line last five at home. Harbaugh 11-7 vs. line as visitor since 2011. 49ers, based on team trends.




Sunday, Sept. 29 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings Game played in London, England. Pitt 0-3 vs. line TY and 1-6 last 7 since late 2012. Pitt also "under" 27-16 last 43 since late 2010. If chalk note Vikes just 3-7-1 in role since 2011. Vikings and "under," based on recent Steeler trends.


Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Bills have covered first two at home for Marrone as dog in each. Bills now 5-2 as Orchard Park dog since 2011. Harbaugh just 5-6 as visiting chalk since 2011. Bills, based on team trends.


Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Browns 2-0-1 vs. line last three meetings. "Paul Brown Series" also over last four since 2011 despite Browns' 28-12 "under" last 40. Cincy "under" 13-8 last 21 since late 2011, though last four in Cleveland "over" as well. Bengals and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Jags have actually won and covered three of last four meetings. But Jax only 5-13 as home dog since 2010, also "under" 12-5 last 17 as host. Indy "under" 21-7-1 last 29 as well. "Under" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.


Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans Pete Carroll 18-6-1 last 25 and has covered last five on road. Kubiak 0-3 vs. line TY. Seahawks, based on recent trends..


Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bruce Arians 10-5 vs. line if including interim Colts stint LY. Schiano 2-6-1 last 9 vs. line since late 2012, and if chalk note Bucs also 5-9-1 at home in role since 2010. Bucs also "under" last seven since late 2012. Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends .


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Lions have lost last three SU in series but are 5-1 vs. points last six vs. Bears. If chalk note Lions 6-9-1 last 16 in role. Lions also "over" 35-19-1 since last in 2009 season. "Over," based on team trends.


New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs Andy Reid 3-0 SU and vs. line TY with KC, Giants 0-3 SU and vs. line. Chiefs also "under" first three for Reid and now "under" last 7 and 10-1 last 11. Chiefs and "under," based on recent trends.




Sunday, Sept. 29 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans Rex 2-0 as dog TY but remember 6-11 previous 17 in role. Rex also "under" 6-2 last 8 since late LY. Titans 6-1 last six vs. line since late LY. Titans and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers If Cowboys chalk note 8-23-1 mark in role since 2010. Dallas "under" 10-2 last 12 on road. "Under" and Chargers, if dog, based on 'totals" and team trends.


Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders Oakland 2-1 vs. line TY but still just 4-9-1 vs. line last 14 at home. Raiders also "under" 8-2 last 10 even after "over" on Monday at Denver. Redskins, based on team trends.


Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos Broncos 12-2 last 14 reg. season vs. line, 6-1 last seven as host. Broncos "over" 6-1 last 7 and "over" 38-18-1 since late 2009. Birds "over" 5-1 last 6 and 7-2 last 9 since mid 2012, also 4-15 last 19 vs. line. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.




Sunday, Sept. 29 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons If Belichick a dog note 17-5-2 mark in role since 2003 (4-0 since 2010). Belichick "under" last four since late 2012 but "over" 17-7-1 last 25 as visitor. Falcs "under" 7-4 last 11 since mid 2012. Patriots, especially if dog, and slight to "under" based on recent trends.




Monday, Sept. 30 - ESPN, Game to start at 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints Saints 10-0 SU and vs. line for Sean Payton at Superdome since 2011. Miami also "under" 23-12 since 2011, Saints "under" first three in 2013. Saints and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.




Teams on Bye - Week 4

Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers

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Preview: 49ers (1-2) at Rams (1-2)

Date: September 26, 2013 8:25 PM EDT


The problems the St. Louis Rams are having on the field might pale in comparison to the overall issues surrounding the San Francisco 49ers.

Mired in their first losing stretch under coach Jim Harbaugh and minus at least one key player, the visiting 49ers look to avoid a third consecutive defeat Thursday night against a Rams team that gave them plenty of trouble in 2012.

In two games since totaling 494 yards during a 34-28 season-opening win over Green Bay, San Francisco (1-2) has looked nothing like the team expected to contend for a second straight NFC title. The 49ers have managed 461 total yards, turned the ball over seven times and committed 18 penalties while being outscored 56-10 by Seattle and Indianapolis.

Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Packers, but 277 with no TDs and four picks the last two weeks.

A defense that in 2012 ranked second in the NFL at 17.1 points per game and third at 294.4 yards per game is giving up averages of 337.0 yards (12th) and 28.0 points (25th) through three games.

The 49ers last dropped three in a row during the 0-5 start in 2010 - the season prior to Harbaugh's arrival.

"We're not going to hang our heads," Harbaugh said. "Football is not easy, there are struggles.

"We've got some adversity, no question about it. We also have the rare opportunity to stare adversity in the face and whip it. That's our goal."

Doing so could be difficult as off-field issues and injuries continue to plague the club.

Star outside linebacker Aldon Smith was placed on the reserve non-football injury list Monday as he enters rehab for substance abuse. Smith, who had an NFC-leading 19 1/2 sacks last season and has 3 1/2 in 2013, played in Sunday's 27-7 home loss to the Colts two days after he was arrested and jailed on suspicion of DUI and marijuana possession.

There is no minimum number of games Smith must miss.

"We're very supportive of Aldon as we are of all of our players, all of our coaches, our personnel," Harbaugh said.

The 49ers also could be without fellow linebacker Patrick Willis (groin) and defensive back Nnamdi Asomugha (leg). Tight end Vernon Davis could miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury.

Playing without Davis seemed to leave Kaepernick lost at times Sunday. He completed two of his first eight passes and finished 13 for 27 for 150 yards with an interception and was sacked three times.

Kaepernick targeted Anquan Boldin 17 times when the veteran receiver caught 13 passes for 208 yards with a TD against the Packers. In the last two, the ball has gone Boldin's way 12 times, resulting in six catches for 74 yards and no touchdowns.

"I feel very confident in Colin," Harbaugh told the 49ers' official website.

"We all have our fingerprints on (the offensive struggles). We're working to improve the precision."

Frank Gore did rush for 82 yards on 11 carries Sunday after totaling 60 on 30 attempts the first two weeks. He scored in San Francisco's 16-13 overtime loss at St. Louis (1-2) on Dec. 2, but was limited to 58 yards on 23 carries.

Kaepernick threw for 208 yards and rushed for 84 in that contest, which followed the teams' 24-24 tie at San Francisco on Nov. 11 - the game in which Kaepernick relieved a concussed Alex Smith and the last one he didn't start.

Rams coach Jeff Fisher hopes the memory of last year's play against the 49ers will help his current team move on from consecutive losses at Atlanta and Dallas.

"This is a defining moment for us right now," he said after Sunday's 31-7 loss to the Cowboys. "We've got to get past this and get ready for the 49ers.

"All you have to do is put on a series here or a series there of our matchup last year, either one of the two games against the 49ers, and we'll have their attention."

No matter how much off-field drama and on-field struggles have consumed the 49ers, Fisher knows his team likely can't afford to follow the trend of falling behind again Thursday.

St. Louis rallied from an 11-point deficit to post a 27-24 season-opening win over Arizona and trailed by 21 points in the 31-24 loss to the Falcons.

The Rams weren't nearly as competitive at Dallas, gaining 18 total yards in the first half and 232 for the game. They were 0 for 12 on third down until converting one on the game's final play. Quarterback Sam Bradford was sacked six times after not being taken down once in four straight games dating to last season.

St. Louis also allowed DeMarco Murray to rush for 175 yards and a TD on 26 carries.

"We have to stick together," defensive end Chris Long said. "Nobody is going to come in here and save the day. It is on us to change things."

Bradford has completed 71.1 percent of his passes while going 2-0 at home versus San Francisco, and he's thrown four TDs without an interception in four career games against the 49ers.

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NFL HEAD TO HEAD

Dec 2, 2012 Score ATS Results
SFO 13 Under: 29
STL « 16 Cover: 10.5
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps


Nov 11, 2012 Score ATS Results
STL 24 Cover: 13.5
SFO « 24 Over: 48
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps

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Thursday, September 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:25 PM ET San Francisco -3 500 POD # 1


St. Louis - Under 42 500 POD # 2

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 29

Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS away in the first month of the season
Minnesota: 31-15 Under away off a loss

Baltimore at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 17-3 Under off BB ATS wins as a favorite
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 18-8 Under vs. conference opponents

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Jacksonville: 3-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Seattle at Houston, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 3-18 ATS off a home win by 21+ points
Houston: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in the first half of the season
Tampa Bay: 24-11 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game
Detroit: 15-6 Over as a favorite

NY Giants at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 17-5 Under away off BB games allowing 25+ points
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite

NY Jets at Tennessee, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off an Over
Tennessee: 26-13 Over off a win by 3 points or less

Dallas at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 8-25 ATS away off BB Unders
San Diego: 12-2 Over off an Under

Washington at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Washington: 28-14 Under off 3+ ATS losses
Oakland: 7-20 ATS at home off a division road loss

Philadelphia at Denver, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 2-10 ATS off a home loss
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

New England at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
New England: 16-6 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less
Atlanta: 3-16 ATS off BB games gaining 375+ total yards
NFL Betting Trends for Monday, September 30


Monday, September 20

Miami at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Miami: 11-2 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
New Orleans: 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Steelers (0-3) vs Vikings (0-3) (London)— What did the British do to deserve this? Steelers are horrible, with no takeaways (-9) in first three games; they’ve run ball for only 52 ypg behind banged-up OL and Big Ben can’t win games by himself (had two turnovers returned for TDs by Bears Sunday night), despite passing for 379 yards. Pitt is 10-35 on 3rd down and has allowed ten sacks (-7). Vikings are also 0-3, but last two losses were by total of five points, as Browns’ backup QB Hoyer won Metrodome opener with last-second TD pass last week. Minnesota allowed 34-31-31 points in first three games, giving up 11 TDs on 38 drives- they gave up 24 first half points in each of last two games, including TD on a fake FG last week. Not many teams have four takeaways in consecutive games and don’t win either one. AFC teams are off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; Steelers are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs NFC teams, Vikings are 11-21-1 vs AFC teams last 8+ years.

Ravens (2-1) @ Bills (1-2)— Baltimore’s defense may be better without Lewis/Reed; they allowed no TDs on 22 drives in last two games, after getting riddled by Denver juggernaut in opener. Trailing 6-3 with 3:00 left in half last week, Ravens scored TDs on defense/special teams in 1:54 span to grab control of game vs good Houston team. Buffalo scored 21-24-20 points in first three games with rookie QB, so they can’t be too displeased; their two home games were decided by total of three points. Bills covered five of last seven tries as home dog (2-0 this year) and have run ball for average of 135 ypg, despite not getting much from Spiller (knee). Since 2007, Ravens are 4-11 as non-divisional road favorites (4-6 under Harbaugh); they’re 10-9 overall as road faves under him. Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread in game following its last 12 losses. Road favorites in non-divisional games are 4-7 vs spread league-wide. AFC North teams are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-0.

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (1-2)—Cleveland is just 32-49 SU at home the last 10+ years, but after upsetting Vikings in Metrodome last week, should be renewed enthusiasm, especially if Hoyer gets off to fast start. Browns won last week despite four turnovers; they ran ball for 103 yards in first game without Richardson, after running for 112 yards in two games with him. Bengals are 10-2 in last 12 games on grass, 6-1-1 in last eight games as road favorite and 17-7 in game following their last 24 wins, but they’re 0-5 as a divisional road favorite (7-1-1 as non-divisional AF). Seven of nine Bengal TDs have been on drives of 78+ yards, but they’ve lost field position battle in all three games. Cleveland has been outscored 41-10 in second half of games. Cincy won seven of last nine series games, with average total in last four, 51.5; home team won six of last seven series games, with Bengals 5-3 in last eight visits to Lake Erie.

Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (0-3)— Jax is 3-1 in last four series (post-Manning) games, after losing 15 of previous 20 against Manning; Colts lost two of last three visits here, are in huge trap game coming off 27-7 whipping of 49ers at Candlestick (336-254 TY, +2 TOs). Since ’08, Indy is 13-5-1 as a road favorite, 6-3 in division games. Second week in row on road for Colts, in 49er/Seahawk sandwich against lesser division foe; underdogs covered their first three games. Jags have been outscored 92-28 in three games (32-9 average), 55-5 in first half, allowing 165.7 rushing yards/game; none of their three offensive TDs came on drives longer than 52 yards and two of three games had extended garbage time, Jax is 5-14 as a home dog, 7-11 as an AFC South home dog; they have only two TDs in eight trips to red zone- if you bet on them, you’re a masochist. Indy running ball for 146.3 ypg, figures to improve that with Richardson added to mix.

Seahawks (3-0) @ Texans (2-1)—Houston was first team since at least 1970 to win on last play in both Weeks 1-2, then went to Baltimore and got waxed when offense/special teams gave up TDs; hard to figure Texan squad that is 9-6 as home dog under Kubiak, 13-6 as dog of 3 or less points, 7-1-1 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less either way. Seahawks are 7-2 in games with spread of 3 or less, 2-4 as road favorite under Carroll, 6-8-3 vs spread on grass; they’ve allowed only three TDs on 30 drives this year, but are just 3-6 in last nine true road games, scoring only 12 points in opening win at Carolina, its only road game. Texans gained 449-452 yards in Weeks 1-2, was held to 264 last week, as trend of them folding vs top teams continues to hold. Home teams won pair of one-sided series games; Seattle lost 34-7 in only visit to Reliant, four years ago. AFC South teams are 2-7 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Cardinals (1-2) @ Buccaneers (0-3)—Didn’t take long for Schiano to pull plug on QB Freeman ($8.43M/year) in favor of rookie Glennon, whom he tried to recruit for Rutgers; Bucs have one TD on 21 drives in last two games, completed 45.7% of passes in three games, very poor, but last coach to cut a QB loose in order to play Glennon got canned within 15 months (Russell Wilson/O’Brien at NC State). Tampa won six of last eight series games, with last six all decided by 7 or less points. Arizona lost last three played here by 4-1-7 points. Cardinals are just 6-24 on 3rd down last two games, scoring 22 points on nine trips to red zone; they’re 9-7-1 as road dog since 2011, but have terrible injury problems at LB, losing three guys in last week. Since ’09, Bucs are 5-9-1 as home favorites- they’re 5-10-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional HF. Home teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC South teams.

Bears (3-0) @ Lions (2-1)—Chicago won nine of last 10 series games, taking last three by 24-6-2 points; Bears won four of last five visits to Motor City, are off to 3-0 start under Trestman, winning field position in all three games by 14-15-14 yards, unusually good to have three straight games like that. Chicago has 11 takeaways (+6) in three games, with defense scoring three TDs in last two weeks. Detroit WR Burleson broke his arm “bringing pizza home” during week; I eat more pizza than anyone I know, always get it delivered. Detroit threw for 352/358 yards in its two wins, 273 in loss at Arizona; with Freeman getting benched in Tampa, Stafford is last starting QB left from draft class of ’09. Lions have only four turnovers in four games; they better protect ball here. Since ’08, Bears are 8-15-2 as road underdogs; Lions are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Detroit has 27 penalties for 259 yards; Chicago has 11 for 119.

Cowboys (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2)—All three San Diego games were decided by exactly three points, with both their losses in last 0:30; home teams lost last four games in this series, with Dallas winning four of five visits here (only loss 24-23 in ’83). Five of last seven series games were decided by 4 or less points. Pokes are 6-12-1 under Garrett in games where spread was 3 or less points; San Diego is 6-9-1 in last 16 such games. AFC is off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; entire NFC East is at AFC West this weekend. Cowboys scored 36-31 in their wins, were held to 16 in loss at Arrowhead; Chargers allowed 33-30-20 points so far this year, but have had a TD drive of less than 50 yards in all three games, as defense/special teams helped them win field position battle all three games. After converting 17-29 on third down in first two games, Bolts were just 3-9 in Nashville. After getting six takeaways in season opener, Dallas has only one in last two games (+3 in turnovers for year).

Giants (0-3) @ Chiefs (3-0)—Andy Reid might already be NFL Coach of the Year; his Chiefs have been +15/+14/+23 in field position in winning first three games (they were 2-14 LY)- they’re +9 in turnovers, while Giants are -9. All three KC games have stayed under the total as Chiefs have run ball for 127 ypg and Smith has totally avoided mistakes, taking sacks instead of making risky throws. Manning has been sacked 11 times (-8) and Big Blue allowed 21+ points in second half of all three games- they converted 4 of 23 third down plays in last two games. Banged-up Giant OL has been unable to open holes (44.3 rushing yards/game). Chiefs are just 3-15-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite; they’ve covered 10 of last 14 vs NFC foes, but failed to cover in narrow 17-16 (-3) Week 2 win over Dallas. Giants won last four series games, all by 10+ points; they’re 4-2 in Arrowhead, which was built exactly like old Swamp Stadium.

Jets (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)—Rookie QB Smith has been better than advertised for Jets, who lost here 14-10 (+1.5) in Week 15 Monday nighter LY, just second Tennessee win in last seven series games. Jets are 3-2 in Nashville, but are just 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional road dog (they’re 11-4 in last 15 games as a divisional road dog). Gang Green is 2-1 despite -6 turnover ratio; they don’t have a takeaway in last two games, but also have yet to allow more than 5.4 yards/pass attempt in many game. Tennessee has yet to turn ball over behind mobile-but-erratic Locker, who led last-minute TD drive to nip Chargers here last week; Titans are 4-5-1 as home favorite under Munchak, 7-13 in game following their last 20 wins. AFC East teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South teams are 2-7, 0-3 at home. 50 years ago, the Jets were known as the New York Titans, the Titans were known as the Houston Oilers; go figure.

Redskins (0-3) @ Raiders (1-2)—Winless Washington limps into Bay Area 0-3 after scoring three points in two red zone drives last week; they’ve been outscored 67-21 in first half of games, but played better last week in what was entertaining game. Skins are 2-2 as road faves under Shanahan who once coached the Raiders and then tormented them for years with Denver, after Al Davis shorted him on severance pay. Oakland got crushed in Denver Monday, but Broncos are doing that to everyone; concern is for improving young QB Pryor, who is showing signs of being good. Short week for Oakland, which may go to highly-paid backup QB Flynn if Pryor (concussion) can’t play. NFC East teams are 1-4 as non-divisional favorites. AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread out of division, 4-0 as underdogs. Oakland ran ball for 392 yards in first two games, only 49 Monday night. Raiders are 8-4 in this series, with teams splitting four games played here.

Eagles (1-2) @ Broncos (3-0)—Denver is on short week after dispatching Raiders Monday night; they’ve scored 42.3 ppg in first three games, winning by 22-18-16 points. Good news for Eagles; for first time in three weeks, the other team is on a short week, not them, since Philly played on Thursday last week, but Broncos have scored 15 TDs on 36 drives, with eight TDs and a FG in 12 red zone drives- they’re 8-1 as home favorites with Manning as QB, after being 5-24-2 in that role from 2006-11. Eagles allowed 33-26 points in losing last two games, giving up 934 TY in two games, bad news vs high-powered Broncos in altitude, when both teams will be playing fast. Philly ran ball for 263-89-260 yards in first three games; they’ll need to keep ball away from #18 or this will ugly early. Eagles are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Home teams won last five series games. NFC East teams are 2-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West teams are 8-1.

Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2)— After facing two rookie QBs and Josh Freeman (benched this week) in their first three games, Pats step up in class facing BC alum Ryan here. NE got young WR Thompson involved with two TD catches last week, but in last two games, Pats are still just 10-33 on third down, after being 11-20 in opener at Buffalo. Patriots allowed only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, but since ’07, Falcons are 24-11-1 as home favorites- Smith is 19-4 vs spread in game following a loss. Atlanta butchered end of last week’s game in Miami, missing a 35-yard FG when up 23-20 late- they had only two TDs in five red zone drives, while Miami was 3-3. Patriots are 22-15-1 vs spread coming off a win, 6-2 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less points, but just 3-6 vs NFC foes. Falcons are 23-12-1 under Smith when spread is 3 or less, but they’re already 0-2 in such games this season. Three of seven remaining unbeaten teams are underdogs this week.

Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)—When Brees left San Diego as free agent/after his shoulder surgery, Miami chose Culpepper over him, which turned out better for Brees than Miami. Deserves mention that Saints beat Miami 46-34 in ’09, teams’ only meeting since Brees signed with NO. Unbeaten Dolphins are moving chains, converting 21-52 (40.4%) on third down and have only two penalties in last two games- they’re 28-12-2 as a non-divisional road underdog, achieved under five different coaches. Fish are 21-11-1 as road underdogs, 6-3 vs NFC opponents, 4-4 as a road dog under Philbin. Saints scored four TDs on 10 drives last week, after scoring total of three on 22 drives in first two games; Payton covered his last ten games as a home favorite (Saints were 3-3 as HF without him LY). Ryan’s defense held last two opponents to 273/247 yards, after Falcons gained 367 in opener. Unusual that first three Saint games this year all stayed under the total.

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NFL betting Week 4 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Welcome to Week 4, when everything in the NFL settles down and gets back to normal. Well, in theory, anyway. It’s been a tough start to the season for NFL bettors in general, but if it’s any consolation, this week’s board looks a lot more like we’re used to.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 26.

Three of a kind

At press time, we have four pointspreads of exactly three points on the board and six more games that have the favorite set between -2 and -3.5. For lovers of home underdogs, there are eight teams heading into hostile territory as favorites. Washington visits Oakland as a 3-point favorite and Baltimore is a 3-point chalk at Buffalo. The Denver Broncos are the only double-digit favorite at -10.5 at home to Philadelphia.

Across the pond

The winless Pittsburgh Steelers look to snap their slump when they hook up with the Minnesota Vikings at Wembley Stadium in London. No matter what you think of growing the NFL market, these games are an absolute nightmare for any team involved. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss to Chicago in Week 3’s Sunday Night Game, but did show a little improvement on offense in the second half. Minnesota doesn’t even know who its starting quarterback will be right now with Christian Ponder nursing a rib injury. If he can’t go, Matt Cassel is next man up. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites and are now sitting at -2.5.

On the move

Anytime you have so many spreads hovering around three points, you’ll see a lot of significant movement. Keep an eye on each of these lines right up until kickoff. Baltimore opened as a 3.5 favorite at the Bills, but Buffalo bettors chimed in to drop that number to Ravens -3. Tampa Bay went from -3 to -2.5 at home to Arizona after word came out QB Josh Freeman is sitting down in favor of Mike Glennon. Jets supporters helped move New York from a 4.5-point underdog to +3.5 and Sunday night’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has moved from a pick ‘em to Falcons -2.

Who’s hot, who’s not

Bettors aren’t giving up on the San Francisco 49ers just yet. San Fran has allowed 56 points in consecutive losses and heads to St. Louis as a 3.5-point favorite but we’re still seeing 77 percent of 49ers tickets.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 4

September 28, 2013


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 13-0-1 ATS since Dec 15, 2002 as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS since Oct 19, 2008 when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Saints TE Jimmy Graham is 9-0 ATS since 2011 after a home win where he had at least 60 receiving yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Patriots are 15-0 ATS since 2002 on the road after a win as a favorite in which they failed to get into the end zone on at least three separate red zone attempts.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 43-25-2 ATS and 44-25-1 OU. Active on Jacksonville.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU since January 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The New York Jets stumbled into a Week 1 win against Tampa Bay and then four days later, hung around to get the cover at New England. After beating Buffalo in Week 3 it’s fair to say New York (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) is one of the surprise teams of 2013. The Jets have a Monday game vs. the Falcons on-deck and small road dogs in this spot have produced 8 overs and 4 unders the past five seasons.

Non-divisional road teams in this range who are riding high off a win and gearing up for a big primetime contest next week are 40-22-1 O/U (65-percent) when the total is 36 points or greater:

The home team is not overlooking the Jets and the line is tight enough that both teams see this as a legitimate chance to get a win. The Titans (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) have held two of three opponents to fewer than 20 points this year but in 2012 they accomplished that feat just three times. With a few books still offering 39.5 we’re still getting fair value on this total and as each team scraps for its third ‘W’ look at backing the Jets and Titans OVER 39.5 points.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 44)

Giants’ 0-3 panic vs. Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge

When things get hot and hairy for Giants coach Tom Coughlin, he usually just goes out and wins a Super Bowl. But that seems like a tall order this year. Instead, Coughlin is playing it cool and telling the media that this weekend’s trip to Arrowhead isn’t a “must-win game”. Yeah, and Miley Cyrus is a virgin.

New York matches wits with a familiar foe in Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, who has plenty of tape on the Giants from his time in Philadelphia. Reid – AKA the Kool-Aid Man since sporting the Chiefs’ red – has already taken it to NFC East teams Dallas and Philadelphia this season. Kansas City has forced seven turnovers in those games while the Giants have coughed the ball up 14 times in three weeks. Oh Yeah!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47)

Bears' yards allowed per completion vs. Lions’ yards after the catch

Detroit’s offense is squeezing every bit of extra yardage out of its receivers, with guys like Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson tacking on gains after the catch. Burleson is out with a broken arm due to a pizza-related mishap but Bush is expected to return, giving the Lions some serious pitch-and-catch weapons in the backfield.

Chicago’s defense has done a good job creating chaos and plugging up the run, but has been vulnerable to the pass against three QBs not known for airing it out. The Bears are giving up 294.3 yards through the air per game – 24th – and is watching opponents pick up 13 yards per completion – second worst in the NFL. Top CB Charles Tillman, who will be checking Johnson, has missed time with a groin injury this week, only adding to Chicago’s issues.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39)

Jets’ careless play vs. Titans’ flawless football

Even with Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez out of action, the Jets haven’t been able to avoid the comedy of errors. New York has turned the ball over eight times this year – six INTs, two lost fumbles – and hasn’t been able to erase those mistakes by forcing turnovers on the other side of the ball. The J-E-T-S have one INT and have been able to scoop up only one of their five forced fumbles.

Tennessee has a clean sheet in the turnovers category so far this year, even though they have put the ball on the ground twice. Quarterback Jake Locker is brimming with confidence after his best career showing in last week’s win over San Diego and RB Chris Johnson is as sure-handed as ever, having fumbled just 15 times on 1,532 career carries. The Titans have also been able to snatch away the football, with three INTs and two fumble recoveries.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 57.5)

Eagles’ tired legs vs. Broncos' thin-air, no-huddle attack

Chip Kelly has gassed his team in the first three weeks of the season. The Eagles, running under a new up-tempo offense, played a frantic opening schedule with three games in 11 days, and looked tired and clumsy in a five-turnover loss to Kansas City last Thursday. Sure, Philadelphia has had nine days off to recharge the batteries but will find itself running on fumes quite quickly against its Week 4 opponent.

If dealing with Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ no-huddle attack wasn’t bad enough – 71 plays per game – opponents coming to Sports Authority Field at Mile High have to do so in the thin mountain air. To quote the great Ron Burgundy, “Face it. It’s Science”. Philadelphia’s defense buckled in the crunch versus K.C. and was on the field for more than 39 minutes. The Chiefs run a pretty conservative attack compared to Denver, which averages a league-best 0.596 points per play.

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Where the action is: Sharps, public like Denver/Philly over

Week 4 of the NFL schedule features a slew of home dogs and some tiny point spreads, which is in contrast to the mammoth spreads we saw in a couple of games last weekend.

We talk to an oddsmaker from BetDSI about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where they see the lines ending up come kickoff Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +7, Move +8

The Colts are seeing a ton of money in this game against the lowly Jaguars. But, according to an oddsmaker at BetDSI, there's no sharp pressure involved as it's all money coming in from the betting public.

"This game is currently in a "no recovery zone" with a 10-to-1 wager count and a 6-to-1 money wagered advantage for the Colts. Indianapolis teasers are overwhelming this week with so many short spreads. Bettors are leaning to them and New Orleans for spread betting support."

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans - Open: +3, Move: +1.5

Texans S Ed Reed recently called this a potential Super Bowl matchup. Fairly brash prediction considering the Texans are one week removed from an humiliating 30-9 defeat courtesy of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens.

"Sharps on both sides of this match up laying the -2 1/2 on Seattle and +3 -105 on Houston. The current bet count is at 3-to-1 with the help of the public betting faction, but the money wagered is currently a dead on even split."

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers - Open: +2.5, Move: +2

Books opened with this line anywhere from a pick to the Chargers +2.5. The result has been divided action among sharp bettors and the public. "America's Team" is seeing three times the bets, but cash is just about even.

"There is a sharp versus public split on this game with sharps backing the Bolts at the +2.5 value and the public backing Dallas through the current 2 value. Current bet count is about 3-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys, but money wagered is pretty even right now."

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -5, Move: -4

Eli Manning and the New York Giants had some friends among sharp bettors at that opening line. The G-Men have gotten off to rocky start as the younger Manning leads the NFL with eight interceptions through his first three games.

"Sharp money is backing Eli and the slumping Giants at the +5 value through the +4.5 position. When the number hit KC -4, sharps started backing that value creating even money wagered and wager count splits and pretty balanced books for us in-house on this tilt."

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos - Open: 56.5, Move: 57

The NFL's two most potent offenses square off in a late afternoon matchup. Obviously not quite the astronomical total we saw posted in the Cal/Oregon game in NCAA football, but certainly a high total nonetheless. Not high enough to scare off bettors backing the over, however.

"Oddly enough in an NFL game with a College Football-like total, Sharp money is backing the over 56.5 here pushing the staggering total value to its current 57. The public isn't helping matters here and are continuing to push the over creating close to 6-to-1 bet counts and 5-to-1 money wagered counts on this total."

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Four NFL teams letting down bettors in the second half

Football is a tale of two halves. And luckily for NFL bettors, most books offer first and second half lines.

Some teams have been very "Jekyll and Hyde" this season, looking sharp through two quarters and then running out of steam in the final 30 minutes. Here are four teams playing two very different halves so far this year:

Atlanta Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

The Falcons have been fast and furious in the opening two frames, averaging 15.7 points while allowing just 8.7. But when half time hits, all the air is let out of Atlanta. It’s getting outscored 16-8 in the second half this season, which has come back to bite the Falcons in their two losses. Atlanta is a 1-point home favorite hosting New England Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

The Packers have a week off this Sunday and hopefully Mike McCarthy can come up with a killer halftime speech to keep the juices flowing in the final two quarters. The Cheese has gone bad in the championship rounds, getting outscored 20-14 in the second half after out-dueling opponents 18-9.3 in the opening two frames. Green Bay is on a bye week and takes on Detroit in Week 5.

San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU, 2-0-1 ATS)

The Bolts blew a big first-half lead against the Texans on Monday Night Football in Week 1, setting the tone for the rest of the season. San Diego, which has outscored foes 14.7-9 in the first half, is getting rolled 18-11.3 in the last two quarters. The Chargers host Dallas – another two-faced team – as 1-point pups this weekend.

New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Football bettors are wise to the fact that the Patriots’ 3-0 mark is about as soft as the New England morning snow. But, New England isn’t as nearly as split as those teams mentioned above. The Pats’ biggest culprit is it’s stumbling offense, which is outscoring rivals 15.7-6.7 in the first half but getting edged 4.7-4 in the second. New England is up against the bipolar Falcons as a rare road dog Sunday night.

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 4 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Baltimore Ravens rank fourth-last in the league averaging 308.3 yards per game thus far. The ground game has been anemic but could be bolstered by the potential return of Ray Rice, who is reportedly a game-time decision.

- If Rice is indeed in the backfield, the Ravens will be licking their chops. They face the Buffalo Bills who have allowed two 100-yard rushing performances (Shane Vereen and Bilal Powell) through their first three games. The Ravens are 3-point road dogs Sunday.

- Rookie QB Mike Glennon gets the start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they host the Arizona Cardinals. Bucs are 1-point home faves.

- The Steelers are currently 3-point faves as they face the Minnesota Vikings in London, England. The favorite has covered in the last four games in the UK.

- Chiefs LB Justin Houston was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Houston sacked Michael Vick 3.5 times last week and he and the Chiefs defense could be in for more as they host the Giants. Giants QB Eli Manning was sacked seven times in last week's loss to Carolina.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South battle Sunday. The Jags and Colts have played under the total in four straight matchups. Total for Sunday is 42.5.

- Texans star-WR Andre Johnson will get the start against the Seahawks. The last time the teams met (2009), Johnson had 11 grabs for 193 yards and a pair of TDs in a 34-7 Texans victory.

- The Seahawks are one of four teams that own perfect 3-0 ATS records so far this season. Seattle is a 1-point road fave in Houston Sunday.

- A new chapter will be written in the Bengals/Browns rivalry. The underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these AFC North teams. The Browns are 3.5-point home dogs.

- The New York Jets are flagged with an NFL-leading 11.3 penalties per game and are punished to the tune of 93 yards per game.

- The Tennessee Titans have yet to give the ball away through the first three games of the season.

- Bears QB Jay Cutler is 7-1 against the Lions since joining Chicago in 2009, throwing 12 TDs and just one INT in that span.

- The Washington Redskins have allowed 1,464 yards on defense. That total is the most in the history of the league through the opening three games of the season.

- Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Monday's 37-21 loss to the Broncos and is questionable to play against the Redskins. Backup QB Matt Flynn has been practicing with the first team this week.

- The Denver Broncos have won 14-straight regular-season games - longest active streak in the league.

- Speaking of Denver; Peyton could be in for yet another big game. Philly ranks dead last in opponent completions per game (29.3). Broncos are 11-point faves and the total is 58.5.

- Cowboys WR Miles Austin has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers with a hamstring injury.

- The Chargers are hosting the Cowboys Sunday. San Diego is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Chargers are 1-point home dogs.

- The Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots at the Georgia Dome in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons are 1-point home faves but are 0-3 ATS in their last three versus the Pats - two of which were in Georgia.

- Keep an eye on the status of Pats TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is listed as questionable, but the Boston Herald believes he is healthy enough to play.

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Sunday's NFL Week 4 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+3, 44.5)

After a disastrous season-opening shellacking, the Baltimore Ravens are making strides toward resembling the team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy earlier this calendar year. The Ravens look to build off a pair of dominating defensive efforts on Sunday when they visit western New York to face the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills' backfield survived a scare as talented rusher C.J. Spiller has been a full participant in practice despite tweaking his quad in last week's 27-20 loss to the New York Jets. To add insult to injury, the Bills were unable to capitalize on 20 penalties en route to suffering their second loss to an AFC East rival.

LINE: Baltimore opened as a 3-point road fave. The total opened at 44 and is now up to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (-1.5) + Buffalo (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buffalo +4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 40)

Larry Fitzgerald found the going tough last weekend - and he may be in for an even rougher ride against Tampa Bay. The veteran WR fought through a hamstring injury to haul in five passes for 64 yards against the Saints, but had just six targets on the afternoon as QB Carson Palmer struggled with the revamped New Orleans pass defense. Fitzgerald says he's close to 100 percent - and he'll need to be against Buccaneers defensive back Darrelle Revis.

Rookie Mike Glennon will line up under center Sunday afternoon as the winless Buccaneers shake things up against the visiting Arizona Cardinals. Head coach Greg Schiano made the decision to switch quarterbacks after Josh Freeman struggled for a third consecutive week in a 23-3 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots.

LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5 but are currently -1. The total opened at 40.5 and is now 40.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -3.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games in September.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3, 41.5)

Ben Roethlisberger put the game on his shoulders last week against Chicago and ended up throwing two interceptions and losing a pair of fumbles in the 40-23 loss. Roethlisberger caused a minor stir with comments on his radio show about rookie running back Le’Veon Bell’s toughness but quickly backtracked and is hoping Bell (foot) can add another dimension to the offense when he makes his expected NFL debut.

Quarterback Christian Ponder struggled to take advantage of defenses crowding the line to stop RB Adrian Peterson and a fractured rib suffered last week opened the door for Matt Cassel to start in his place.

LINE: The Vikings opened as 1-point dogs and are now +3. The total is 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+4.5) - Vikings (+5.0) = Steelers -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with overcast skies.
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Steelers last five games overall.
* Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 4.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43.5)

Eli Manning has tossed a league-high eight interceptions - although a patchwork offensive line contributed in his getting sacked an alarming seven times last week. The two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback's troubles fell on deaf ears as wideout Hakeem Nicks bristled that "(he) can't throw it to myself" after seeing just one pass attempt sail in his direction last week.

The Kansas City Chiefs have made themselves at home at the expense of the NFC East. The undefeated Chiefs vie for their third consecutive victory against a representative from that division on Sunday when they host the winless New York Giants. After edging Dallas in Week 2, coach Andy Reid's club cruised to a convincing 26-16 triumph over his former one in Philadelphia on Sept. 19.

LINE: KC opened as a 4-point home fave. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+4.0) + Chiefs (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -8.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.
TRENDS:

* Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 42.5)

The Colts suddenly have one of the top backfield duos in the league with Ahmad Bradshaw (186 rushing yards) and Trent Richardson, who scored a touchdown in his first carry for Indianapolis last week. The defense was solid, if unspectacular, in the first two games but flexed its muscles against San Francisco, allowing only 254 total yards and forcing two turnovers.

Jacksonville will have Blaine Gabbert back under center after missing two games with a cut on his throwing hand. "The last couple of weeks have kind of been a blessing in disguise, to let my hand heal," Gabbert told reporters. "It gave me a different point of view and an opportunity to watch things from a different perspective."

LINE: The line opened with the Jags +9.5. The total is 42.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-1.0) + Jags (+9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jags +7.0
WEATHER: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and wind will blow toward the south endzone at 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+1, 41.5)

Seattle is riding a top-notch defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense (9.0) and total defense (241.7 yards) and also has forced 10 turnovers. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied his career high with four touchdown passes in a romp over Jacksonville and has six overall while completing 64.4 percent of his passes.

Houston’s 21-point loss to Baltimore included a franchise-record 14 penalties, zero offensive touchdowns scored and allowing the Ravens to record one defensive and one punt-return touchdown. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown for 838 yards and six touchdowns but running back Arian Foster (190 yards, one score) has yet to hit his stride.

LINE: Houston opened as a 3-point home dog and is now +1. The total opened at 44 and is now 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-8.0) - Texans (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans +1.0
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Texans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
* Under is 8-1 in Seahawks last nine games in September.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 42.5)

Cincinnati's defense, which hasn't allowed a 300-yard passer in the past 17 games, frustrated Aaron Rodgers last week. The Bengals limited Rodgers to 244 yards passing and picked him off twice but they still surrendered 30 straight points in the bizarre contest.

Making just his second career start in his fifth NFL season, Brian Hoyer threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns to tight end Jordan Cameron as the Browns rallied past the Vikings a week ago. Josh Gordon was brilliant in his return from a two-game suspension, catching 10 passes for 146 yards, but Willis McGahee provided little help on the ground in rushing for nine yards on eight carries.

LINE: The Bengals opened as 5-point road faves but are now +3.5. The total opened at 41 and is now 42.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-2.5) + Browns (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns +4.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
* Underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings
* Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47.5)

The Chicago Bears can seize early control of the NFC North Division when they carry an unbeaten record into Detroit on Sunday. With a win, Chicago would have a two-game lead in the division at the quarter pole of the season. The Bears enter with loads of momentum after a 40-23 rout at Pittsburgh on Sunday night in their first road contest of the season.

Lion RB Reggie Bush told reporters this week that he expects to be ready to play Sunday after missing Week 3 with a sprained left knee. Without Bush in the fold, Joique Bell ran 20 times for just 63 yards for the league's 26th-ranked rushing attack, but he did haul in four catches for 69 yards.

LINE: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home faves and are now -3. The total opened at 48 and is down to 47.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bears (-3.0) + Lions (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. NFC North.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 4's best player prop bets

Don’t limit your NFL wagering to just sides and totals. Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his favorite player prop picks for Week 4.

Most passing yards

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. E.J. Manuel (Buffalo Bills)

I'm not one bit sold on the Bills defense, particularly against the pass. Their starting secondary has spent more time in the trainer's room than on the field this season, and things won't get any easier against Joe Flacco and a Ravens offense that has a lot to prove this week.

We've yet to see Flacco get truly acclimated with his current set of targets. We all knew this Baltimore passing game would be a work-in-progress in the early going this season and that has proven to be the case. With that being said, this looks like an ideal breakout spot. We should hear plenty of Ravens WR Torrey Smith on Sunday afternoon.

Take: Flacco

Geno Smith (New York Jets) vs. Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)

Geno Smith threw for a career-high 331 yards last week, but that performance came against the Bills. He'll be taking a step up in class against an emerging Titans defense on Sunday and I don't expect him to turn in a similar effort.

The Titans are finally getting some mileage out of Jake Locker this season as he's thrown for just shy of 600 yards, three touchdowns, and more importantly no interceptions through three games. The Jets defense will pose a stiff challenge, but I don't expect Tennessee to hold anything back with Locker as they aim to improve to 3-1.

Take: Locker

Most rushing yards

Trent Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Last week's game in San Francisco represented nothing more than a dress rehearsal for Trent Richardson in the Colts offense. While he did run for a touchdown, he gained just 35 yards on 13 carries. Expect to see a more explosive performance from Richardson against a weary Jaguars defense on Sunday.

Maurice Jones-Drew has looked like a shell of his former self for the Jags so far this season, but that's had a lot to do with the anemic offense around him. While the Colts are vulnerable on the defensive side of the football, their biggest weakness is against the pass. They'll do everything they can to eliminate Jones-Drew from the equation on Sunday.

Take: Richardson

Most pass receptions

Brandon Marshall (Chicago Bears) vs. Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions)

The common line of thinking is that Megatron will find the going much tougher without his running mate, WR Nate Burleson. I feel that the Lions will do even more to force the ball to Johnson in Burleson's absence, resulting in increased targets and in turn catches on Sunday against Chicago.

Bears QB Jay Cutler has been spreading the ball around nicely this season, with Brandon Marshall grabbing no more than eight catches in any of the first three games. It's not difficult to figure out who the Lions defense will key on in this matchup, with Marshall getting plenty of attention. I'm expecting a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte from Chicago, limiting Marshall's potential for a monster game.

Take: Johnson

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Handicapping the betting history of 0-3 NFL teams

Teams starting the NFL season 0-3 are winless for a reason, which is never more evident than their record in Game 4 of the schedule.

NFL 0-3 teams are just 38-77 SU in their fourth game since 1985, posting a 54-57-4 ATS mark in those contests. Since 2000, those winless teams are 18-39 SU and 29-26-2 ATS in Game 4. Last season featured two 0-3 teams – Cleveland and New Orleans – and while both failed to snap their skids, they did manage to cover the spread.

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season features six 0-3 clubs – New York, Washington, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay - which ties the second-highest amount of winless teams heading into their fourth contest since 1985.

The 1986 and 1996 seasons also had six teams looking for the first win in their fourth game, with those teams going a combined 6-6 SU and ATS in their next outing. The 2009 season featured a high of seven 0-3 teams, which went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in their fourth try.

Of the six winless 2013 teams, Tampa Bay has been in this situation the most over the past 28 seasons. The Buccaneers have gone 0-3 six times in that span and have failed to win Game 4 each time, posting a 3-2-1 ATS record in those outings. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home favorite starting rookie QB Mike Glennon versus Arizona Sunday.

Pittsburgh and Minnesota, who play each other in London Sunday, have each only been in this 0-3 spot once. The Vikings failed in their chance to win Game 4 SU and ATS while the Steelers snapped their slide with a SU and ATS victory. Pittsburgh is currently a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4.

NFC East rivals New York and Washington are also strangers to a 0-3 record. The Redskins, who are 3-point faves in Oakland, have only been there twice, losing both Game 4 chances and going 0-1-1 ATS. The Giants, who are 4.5-point dogs in Kansas City, have done this three times before since 1985, posting a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in their fourth game of that season.

Jacksonville, which currently looks like the worst of the worst, has been 0-3 to start the year just twice before, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in fourth-game situations. However, the Jaguars have only been in the NFL since 1995. They started 0-3 in that inaugural season and lost Game 4, but covered the spread. Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home pup hosting Indianapolis Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's NFL Week 4 betting cheat sheet: Late action

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 40.5)

Jets rooke Geno Smith rebounded from a three-interception fourth quarter against New England to become the first rookie in franchise history to top 300 yards by throwing for 331 in last week's 27-20 victory over Buffalo. Although he was picked off twice versus the Bills, Smith has developed a nice rapport with wideout Santonio Holmes, who had five receptions for a career-high 154 yards, including a 69-yard scoring strike for the go-ahead touchdown.

Titans QB Jake Locker was a turnover machine in 2012 with 15 in 11 games, but the Titans are one of two teams that has yet to commit one and are an overtime loss at Houston away from being undefeated. Locker has the luxury of leaning on speedy running back Chris Johnson, who leads the AFC with 256 yards rushing and burned New York with a 94-yard scoring run last season.

LINE: The Titans opened -5 bue have since moved to -3.5. The total opened at 39 and has moved to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jets (+4.0) - Titans (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -4.5
WEATHER: There is a 43 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
TRENDS:

* Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets last four road games.
* Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)

While Robert Griffin's health has generated most of the headlines, the more pressing concern for Washington is a defense that has yielded 98 points and been shredded for a league-high 488 yards per game. The 1,464 yards allowed by Washington is the most in NFL history through the first three games of the season.

Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor had emerged as one of the early-season feel-good stories after beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job, but his status is in doubt after he absorbed a helmet-to-helmet hit in the waning minutes of Monday's loss.

LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs. The total opened at 43.5 and is up to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+3.5) - Raiders (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Redskins last 4 road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 58.5)

As prolific as the offense has been, Philadelphia has lost two straight and now faces three consecutive road games. The productivity has been offset by seven turnovers - including five in last week's 26-16 loss to Kansas City.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos' passing game are scoring at a record-setting clip, and Knowshon Moreno (160 rush yards) leads a solid ground game. The defense has been dominant against the run and has offset its weakness against the pass with an AFC-best six interceptions.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -10.5. The total opened at 57 and is up to 58.5
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (+1.0) + Broncos (-9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -13.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (+1, 46.5)

Dallas running back DeMarco Murray exploded with a 175-yard effort in last Sunday’s victory over St. Louis that was his first 100-yard outing since the opening game of the 2012 season.

Each of San Diego’s games have down to the final half-minute, including last week’s 20-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Rivers is three touchdown passes away from joining Hall of Famer Dan Fouts (254) and John Hadl (201) as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach 200 scoring passes.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 45.5 and is up one point.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-4.0) + Chargers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the east endzone at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last five games overall.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 49)

Amendola (groin) and Gronkowski (forearm/back) have both been limited participants in practice this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady made good use of Amendola in the season opener but is making do with rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins over the last two weeks, and the two finally stepped up in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

Quarterback Matt Ryan is dealing with his own banged-up receiving corps, though Julio Jones (knee) and Roddy White (high ankle sprain) have yet to miss a game. Atlanta is opening up a three-game homestand with the Patriots after suffering each of its losses on the road, including last week’s 27-23 setback at Miami.

LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Falcons now -1. The total opened at 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-5.0) - Falcons (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 road games.