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**StarDust Bum** · 09-03-2013, 03:03 PM

Tech Trends - Week 1

September 3, 2013

Thursday, Sept. 5 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Rematch of playoff thriller. Ravens won and covered all four in postseason LY after dropping 10 of last 14 vs. line in reg. season. Broncos "over" 36-18 since late 2009, and "overs" last two in series. "Over," based on Bronco trends.

Sunday, Sept. 8 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills "Over" 5-1 last six in series, Belichick "over" 38-15-1 since 2010. Pats 18-1 SU last 19 vs. Bills, and Belichick 33-18-2 as reg.-season road chalk since 2004. Bills 1-18 SU last 19 vs. Pats. in series. "Over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and series trends.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers Steel just 4-10 its last 14 as chalk dating to late 2011. After extended "over" run at Heinz Field, Steel now "under" 10-1 last 11 as host. Slight to Titans and "under," based on Steeler trends.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Saints had won and covered four straight in series prior to December loss. Sean Payton 9-0 as home chalk in 2011. NO also "over" 11-6 last two years at Superdome. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets Schiano 6-2 vs. line on road LY. Rexy 7-12 last 19 on board, also just 5-9 last 14 as dog. Bucs, based on recent trends.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars J'ville 5-12 as home dog past three seasons (under three different coaches). Jags also "under' 12-5 last 17 at EverBank Field. Chiefs rebounding from debacle of 2012 when they were just 2-14 SU and 5-11 vs. line, but KC had a non-losing road spread mark every year between 2006-11. Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on Jag trends.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears Bears only 7-10 as home chalk past three seasons, and have had a winning spread mark just once since Super Bowl year of 2006. Cincy covered 7-1 last 8 reg.-season in 2012, and Marvin Lewis 12-3-2 vs. line in last 17 reg.-season road games. Bengals, based on team trends.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns Chudzinski Cleveland debut. Browns "under" 26-11 last 37 since late in 2010 campaign. Dolphins "under" 22-10 since 2011. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers Pete Carroll 10-3-1 last 14 on line in 2012 including 6 of last 7. Seattle also "over" 6-2 last 8 in 2012. Cam also covered his last 4 in 2012 but Panthers no covers last four openers, and only 4-8 last 12 vs. line at B of A Stadium. Seahawks and "over," based on Seattle trends.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Lions lost last 8 SU in 2012 and just 5-10-1 vs. line LY. Lions 6-15-2 last 23 on board since mid 2011 and 8-18-2 last 28 on board. Lions 4-9-1 last 14 vs. line at Ford Field, too. Lions also "over" 34-18-1 since late 2009. "Over" and Vikings, based on "totals" and team trends.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts Dennis Allen 4-12 SU and 5-11 vs. line LY, 4-7 as dog. Colts almost the opposite LY, 11-5 SU and 10-6 vs. line, 8-3 last 11 vs. spread in reg. Season. Colts also "under" 11-5-1 LY and 15-5-1 last 21 since late 2011. Colts and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 9 - Games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams Much of Colts spread prowess LY when Arians was their interim HC, 9-3 SU and 8-4 vs. line in those games. Even with the problems for Big Red past two years, they were 8-6-1 as road dog (4-3-1 LY). Fisher 11-5 vs. line LY but only 1-2 in chalk role and 4-4 at home, most of the spread damage came on road. Cards, based on Arians marks.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Harbaugh won and covered both vs. Pack LY, including playoff fireworks show. Pack only 2-2 as dog past two years and 8-9 vs. line away. Harbaugh 24-11-2 vs. line in two years, 12-4-2 vs. line at the Stick. 49ers, based on team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 8 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Eli is 4-0 SU and vs. line at new Cowboys Stadium. Coughlin 8-3 as dog the past two seasons. G-Men also 15-6-1 "under" since late 2011 though last four meetings "over" at Dallas. Cowboys 0-6 as home chalk LY and 3-17 in role since 2010. Giants, based on team trends.

Monday, Sept. 9 - ESPN, Games to start at 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins Kelly Philly debut. Birds dropped 9 of last 11 vs. line LY en route to 3-13 spread disaster. Skins won and covered last 7 reg. season in 2012. Skins, based on team trends.

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers Kubiak has won and covered openers the past 3 years. Texans also 24-11-1 vs. line past two seasons, 8-4-1 as road chalk since 2010. Texans, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-03-2013, 03:06 PM

Week 1 Line Moves

September 2, 2013

Some of the biggest line moves we'll see will happen in Week 1 after the initial numbers were released back in the spring. The LVH (Las Vegas Hotel and Casino) Sportsbook has made the proper adjustments heading into the season opening games as we'll take a look at why some of these games moved.

Patriots at Bills

LVH Opener: New England -7
Current Line: New England -9 ½

The Bills were leaning towards rookie E.J. Manuel as their opening day quarterback, but a minor knee surgery put the former Florida State standout on the shelf. Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the preseason, opening the door for ex-Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel to get the starting nod in Week 1.

Buccaneers at Jets

LVH Opener: Pick-em
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3 ½

It's rare to see the Bucs listed in the road favorite role, but the quarterback issues in New York caused the line move. Mark Sanchez will sit out the opener after injuring his shoulder in the third preseason game, as rookie Geno Smith is set to make his debut in Week 1. Also, former Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis will face his old team as a member of the Bucs following a torn ACL suffered last season.

Chiefs at Jaguars

LVH Opener: Kansas City -2 ½
Current Line: Kansas City -3 ½

The Jaguars look to be one of the bigger disasters in the NFL this season with their substandard quarterback play. Blaine Gabbert missed the final two games of the preseason, but the Jacksonville quarterback is hoping to play on Sunday.

Vikings at Lions

LVH Opener: Detroit -3
Current Line: Detroit -5

The money is starting to pour in on the Lions, who finished last season at a disappointing 4-12. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, but the Vikings stumbled to a 1-3 mark in the preseason.

Raiders at Colts

LVH Opener: Indianapolis -7
Current Line: Indianapolis -9 ½

Oakland is unsure about its starting quarterback heading into Sunday's matchup, but early indication is Terrelle Pryor will start ahead of Matt Flynn. Also, plenty of public money is headed the Colts way following their return to the playoffs last season.

Cardinals at Rams

LVH Opener: St. Louis -6
Current Line: St. Louis -5

St. Louis had its struggles in the preseason, as the improved NFC West will look for a boost from the Rams and Cardinals at the bottom of the division. Arizona won three of four exhibition games, while seeking revenge after getting swept by St. Louis in 2012.

Eagles at Redskins

LVH Opener: Washington -5 ½
Current Line: Washington -3 ½

The Redskins will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback just nine months after tearing his ACL in the playoff defeat to the Seahawks. The Eagles will stick with Michael Vick under center as Philadelphia hopes to use the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly to try and stun the Redskins.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-03-2013, 03:22 PM

NFL odds: Week 1 opening line report

The NFL Week 1 odds are about as fresh as your gym bag, having been on the board since the middle of summer.

While these spreads and totals have taken action over the past few months, the majority of money is still to come. We talk to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com about some of the more intriguing opening NFL odds, line adjustments and where these numbers could close come kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – Open: -9, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

The Thursday night opener has been up and down over the summer, with the latest wave of action coming in on the Ravens following Broncos LB Von Miller’s suspension and injuries to the Denver offensive line.

“On Sunday, we moved the line in Baltimore’s favor again to +7.5 as 70 percent of current action on the spread is backing the Super Bowl champs,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “I think this line stays at -7.5 until kickoff on Thursday. Seven is too important a number and we don’t want to get middled by people who could buy off this number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers – Open: +3, Move: +2.5, Move: +4

The Seahawks were the sexy offseason pick after a brilliant 2012 effort. Carolina, however, turned heads down the home stretch of the season, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the final six games.

Early action saw sharp money take Seattle but some books dropped this spread with money on the Panthers at home. Perry says this could end up being the biggest decision for the books in Week 1, with 86 percent of money siding with the Seahawks.

“We moved the line to -4 Sunday, as we are exposed so much on Seattle,” he says. “This line should stay at -4, until Sunday morning, where I could see us going to -4.5 to try and get some money on the Panthers.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5, Move: -4.5, Move: -4

Up until last season, when New England trounced Tennessee in Week 1, the Super Bowl loser had failed to cover the spread in their opener in 12 straight seasons. Action has sided with San Francisco for this playoff rematch with the Packers, including early sharp money. According to Perry, nearly 70 percent of handle is on the 49ers.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: -2.5, Move: -3

This Sunday Night Football grudge match has hovered around a field goal most of the summer. According to Perry, about 60 percent of the action is on the Cowboys at home. Dallas won the season opener in New York last season but went a dismal 1-7 ATS as a host in 2012.

“When talking NFL spreads, the three is stronger than Matt Cushman’s word - played by Beau Bridges in Jerry Maguire. Cushman’s word was stronger than oak,” jokes Perry. “I will tell you that we won’t move off -3 until game time. Oh yeah, Cushman lied."

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 11:06 AM

September Trends

September 4, 2013

It’s September and that means the NFL is back another season of excitement.

And with it we’ll take a monthly view in to some of the best and worst team performances, broken down by site, role and division in the past during the month of September.

It’s now game time!

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): San Francisco is 23-14 against the spread (ATS) this month at Candlestick Park and has Green Bay in the opener and Indianapolis in Week 3. Baltimore, the defending Super Bowl champs, is 24-15 ATS in the opening month of the season and has Cleveland and Houston at home. The Texans contest is really interesting as they are 28-11-2 ATS as non-division home favorites since 2003.

Bad: Cincinnati is after its third straight postseason appearance, but has a long history of first month failures at 11-25 ATS. There first two home games might not improve their record either, taking on the hated Steelers on Monday night and six days later facing Green Bay.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona only has one contest in the initial month of the season versus Detroit, which might be a good thing with its 12-22 ATS mark.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): For all of Dallas’ shortcomings, they are 26-14 ATS in September on the road and face a pair of AFC West squads in Kansas City and San Diego.

Denver is not too far behind the Cowboys in being road warriors at 24-16 ATS and it leaves the Mile High City just once, heading to New Jersey to take on the Giants.

Keep an eye on (Bad): September is not a good time to back the squads from the Keystone State on the road. Philadelphia is 14-26 ATS and Pittsburgh is slightly worse at 14-27 against the number. Both hit the road twice.

FAVORITES

Bad: Motley Crue is doing a stint in Las Vegas at the Hard Rock Hotel for a few weeks this month. Football bettors in town will also likely be following this motley crew of NFL teams who are awful in the role of favorites. If you want to back Arizona (7-15 ATS), Carolina (7-16 ATS), Cincinnati (9-19 ATS) or Pittsburgh (11-23 ATS) it might be time to see if Dr. Feelgood can make a house call.

DOGS

Good: With the Cowboys having such a good record in road outings, it would stand to reason they would do well in the role of underdog. They are 21-9 ATS. Depending on how they perform, Jerry’s Kids might be small dogs in Kansas City and San Diego this month.

Bad: Remember when Philadelphia was a good team? They were still 9-18 ATS when catching points the first month of the season. Now with a new coach in Chip Kelly and Mike Vick still playing quarterback, you might want to hide under the porch rather than take the Eagles at Washington or Denver.

DIVISION

Bad: Remember when the phrase “Commitment to Excellence” meant something about the Oakland Raiders? These days, there is more buffoonery surrounding this franchise than an episode of The Big Bang Theory. Da Raiders are 11-22 ATS this month when facing division foes and are at Denver on Sept. 23, Monday night, where oddly they are 6-1 ATS of late.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe the Bengals can continue to turn around their sordid history and improve on 11-19 ATS record in the AFC North Division. They will have two chances, one on a Monday nighter against Pittsburgh in Week 2 and on the last Sunday of September at Cleveland.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 11:55 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Baltimore at Denver
The Broncos are seeking revenge from last years playoff loss to the Ravens and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Thursday games. Denver is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Game 451-452: Baltimore at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.325; Denver 142.477
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 453-454: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.298; Buffalo 131.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10 1/2); Over

Game 455-456: Tennessee at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.529; Pittsburgh 135.053
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Over

Game 457-458: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.997; New Orleans 136.658
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.977; NY Jets 122.921
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 461-462: Kansas City at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 116.824; Jacksonville 125.182
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 463-464: Cincinnati at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.753; Chicago 132.177
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Under

Game 465-466: Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.760; Cleveland 132.640
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over

Game 467-468: Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 145.320; Carolina 139.276
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

Game 469-470: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 139.523; Detroit 127.632
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Over

Game 471-472: Oakland at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.852; Indianapolis 136.150
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: Arizona at St. Louis (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.599; St. Louis 126.510
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 475-476: Green Bay at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.355; San Francisco 145.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: NY Giants at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.438; Dallas 133.983
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 479-480: Philadelphia at Washington (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.142; Washington 131.203
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Washington by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Over

Game 481-482: Houston at San Diego (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.892; San Diego 128.357
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:01 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 5

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BALTIMORE (14 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 4) - 9/5/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 8

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at BUFFALO (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-113 ATS (+29.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (6 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 91-60 ATS (+25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (14 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NY JETS (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 14) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 14) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (10 - 7) at CHICAGO (10 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 9) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at CAROLINA (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 12) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at ST LOUIS (7 - 8 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 5 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 151-108 ATS (+32.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 7) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 9

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 12) at WASHINGTON (10 - 7) - 9/9/2013, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-81 ATS (-38.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (13 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 9) - 9/9/2013, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:02 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Ravens @ Broncos—Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.

Patriots @ Bills—New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, but not sure if it'll be Kolb or rookie Manuel yet. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31.

Titans @ Steelers—Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn't looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak.

Falcons @ Saints—Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+.

Buccaneers @ Jets— Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma.

Chiefs @ Jaguars—Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts.

Bengals @ Bears—Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total. Bears won seven of last eight home openers, with over 7-4 in their last 11. Cincy is 10-6-1 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Since ’07, Bears are 12-19-1 as home favorites, 7-13-1 in non-divisional games, but they’re 6-4-2 vs spread in last dozen games vs NFC foes.

Dolphins @ Browns— Not sure what to expect from Browns’ new head coach Chudzinski, but OC Turner is superior coordinator and will improve play of 2nd-year QB Weeden, who is older than most 2nd-year guys, having played six years of minor leaguer baseball. This is 15th season for “new” Browns; they’ve been 1-0 once in previous 14 years, going 1-13 vs spread in home openers, with seven of last ten home openers staying under total. Miami lost eight of last nine road openers, with 14 of last 19 (and last four in row) staying under total- they’ve lost last four games vs Browns, last two by total of four points. Fish lost last three visits here, by 10-1-22 points. Unusually strong stat for Dolphins: since 2003, under a few coaches, they’re 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Seattle @ Carolina—Seahawk defense will be weakened early in year by 4-game suspensions, but they’re fashionable pick to win NFC and have quality depth; Hawks are 14-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games last two years, but they’ve also lost last six road openers and failed to cover last eight. Seattle is 14-34 SU on road last six years; they’re 1-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 5-12-1 in last 18 games on grass, 5-12 in last 17 games as a favorite of 3 or less points. Cam Newton gets new OC (Chudzinski left to be Browns’ HC) in former Bama coach Shula, not an upgrade. Panthers are 9-13 as home dog since 2006, 7-13 in last 20 non-divisional home games, 2-7 in last nine home openers (3-10 vs spread in last 13) and 7-6 in last 13 games where spread is 3 or less points. Home team won five of six series games; Seahawks’ 16-12 win here LY was their first in three visits here, in state where Russell Wilson played three of his four college years.

Minnesota @ Detroit—Vikings traded up to get WR Patterson in effort to balance offense by upgrading passing game to take pressure off star RB Peterson. Minnesota is 22-5 in last 27 series games (won 20-13/34-24 LY); home teams won five of last seven in series, as Vikes lost two of last three here after winning seven of eight here before that. Minnesota’s last five series wins are by 7+ points, their last seven series losses are by 7 or less points. Since 2008, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road underdog; they’ve lost seven of last nine road openers, dropping last three by 5-7-3 points. Detroit is 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 home openers, with four of last five going over total; Lions are 3-5-2 in last 10 tries as a divisional home favorite- they’re 8-3-4 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points, 8-8 as home favorite overall in Schwartz era. Seven of Vikings’ last nine road openers stayed under the total.

Oakland @ Indianapolis—Odd stat on Raiders; they’re 11-23 vs spread in last 35 games as a non-divisional road underdog, 18-2 in last 20 games as a divisional road dog- overall since ’08, they’re 22-17 as road dogs, but covered just four of last 19 games on artificial turf. Colts lost OC Arians to Arizona, brought in Luck’s old OC from Stanford; they’re 11-17 as home favorites since ’08, 3-7 in non-divisional games. Indy won eight of last ten home openers, covering six, but most of that was with Manning under center. Oakland covered four of last five as an underdog in road openers; QB Pryor is making his first road start. Raiders are 8-6 in series, losing last three, with road team winning four of last five meetings; this is Oakland’s first visit to Indy since 2004- they won two of three prior visits. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Raider road openers.

Arizona @ St Louis—Cardinals hired Arians as HC, Palmer as QB to upgrade offense that finished last in rushing three of last five years, and gave up 162 sacks last three years (-49); they’re 4-20 SU in last 24 road games, but have won seven of last eight visits here, their former home. Rams upgraded OL and have new WRs, expectations are higher for QB Bradford in Fisher’s second year as HC. St Louis swept Redbirds 17-3/31-17 LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 games in this divisional rivalry. St Louis has no recent successful trends; they’re 9-19 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-10 in divisional games; they’ve lost five of last six home openers (1-6-1 as favorite in HO’s), while Arizona won four of last five road openers, covering all five games under previous HC Whisenhunt (now OC in San Diego). Cardinals are 8-6-1 as road dog last two years, but covered just two of last seven as a road dog vs NFC West opponents. Four of last six series totals were 32 or less.

Green Bay @ San Francisco—Last year was first time in decade Super Bowl loser covered its opener the next year. 49ers beat Pack twice LY, 30-22 in opener at Lambeau, then 45-31 in home playoff game, ending 1-13 series skid (five of 13 losses were playoff games) vs Green Bay, which is 6-2 in last eight visits here, with last win back in ’06. Niners are +37 in turnovers in two seasons under Harbaugh; they were -21 the four years before that; they’ve got injury issues (Crabtree/Willis) early this year, and are still looking for decent backup QB behind Kaepernick, with Smith off to KC. SF is 11-3-1 as HF under Harbaugh, 8-1 in non-divisional games- since ’09, they’re 23-7-1 SU at home. Packers won six of last seven road openers; they’re 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy, but they’re 4-6 in last ten non-divisional road games. Niners won six of last eight home openers; they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten. Last five series totals were all 49+.

Giants @ Dallas—Cowboys are hideous 3-17 as home favorite under Garrett; they’ve covered only five of last 21 divisional home games, are 5-12-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Enter 73-year old (new DC) Monte Kiffin, whose mission is to upgrade Dallas defense that allowed 34 ppg in losing its last four home games to Giants, who are 8-3 in last 11 games vs Cowboys, with road team winning five of last six meetings. Big Blue covered seven of last ten tries as road underdog, 14 of last 21 divisional road games- they’re 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less. Cowboys are 5-2 in last seven home openers, but failed to cover last five, all as favorites. Giants are 7-5 as dogs in road openers, 4-3 in last seven SU; 11 of their last 13 road openers went over total. Giants have some injury issues on OL, potential problem for less-than-mobile QB Manning. Seven of last eight series totals were 45+.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:03 PM

NFL

Week

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 5

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Sunday, September 8

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY JETS
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home

Monday, September 9

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 13 games
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:04 PM

How last ten defending Super Bowl champs did in their first game the next season; notice the last nine all played their opener at home.........

2003-- Buccaneers W17-0 at Philadelphia, +3

2004-- Patriots W27-24 vs Indianapolis, -3

2005-- Patriots W30-20 vs Oakland -7.5

2006-- Steelers W28-17 vs Miami -1

2007-- Colts W41-10 vs New Orleans -5.5

2008-- Giants W16-7 vs Washington -4.5

2009-- Steelers W13-10 vs Tennessee -6.5

2010-- Saints W14-9 vs Minnesota -5

2011-- Packers W42-34 vs New Orleans -5

2012-- Giants L17-24 vs Dallas -5

2013-- Ravens, +7, 48 at Denver.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:05 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

First Post

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Baltimore at Denver, 8:30 ET NBC
Baltimore: 6-1 Over in the first month of the season
Denver: 10-2 ATS as a favorite

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2013, 12:28 PM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

The term “Bulletin Board Material” has always stuck in my craw.

Why can’t a player be confident enough in himself and his team to say things like, “I don’t think they have anybody to stop me - for real” and not be held over the coals for it?

If I were a coach, I’d want my guys feeling like no one can stop them. And if I’m a bettor, I’d want my wager riding on a dude with that much bravado.

The above quote comes from Buffalo Bills WR Stevie Johnson, and the “they” he’s talking about are the New England Patriots.

Johnson might even be right. New England may not have anyone that can stop him. But the tricky thing about receivers is that they first need someone to throw them the ball. And that’s where Johnson’s comments and the 50-point total for Week 1’s matchup get a little confusing.

The Bills will hand the ball to a rookie passer versus the Patriots, either undrafted free-agent Jeff Tuel or dinged-up first-round pick E.J. Manuel, who is questionable with a knee injury. Neither player is striking fear in the cold, dark heart of Bill Belichick.

If these teams are going to top that 50-point total – the third-highest number on the Week 1 board – New England is going to have to do all the heavy lifting.

The Patriots were the best over bet in football last season but are without four of their top five receivers from 2012. And if the preseason is any indication, Tom Brady could have his work cut out for him this year.

Fifty-point totals could be a thing of the past for the Pats.

NFL

Perhaps the one Week 1 spread that has kept NFL bettors up at night the most is the 9.5-point line for Thursday’s season opener between the Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos.

It’s the exact same spread bettors tangled with when these two teams played in the AFC Divisional Round back in January, with Baltimore winning 38-35 in Denver.

Sure, the Ravens lost some key components and the magic from that Super Bowl could be all dried up, but a championship should buy a little respect from the bookmakers. Bettors certainly have had their say with the early line, taking it as low as a touchdown at some spots.

A let’s not forget the crappy offseason the Broncos had: Numerous black eyes for the front office, injuries to the offensive line, and a six-game suspension for the team’s top pass rusher.

If you don’t think these dark clouds can disrupt an entire season, talk to the New Orleans Saints.

NCAAF

The Northwestern Wildcats came back from a Week 1 trip to California with a lot more baggage, in the form of ice packs and crutches.

The Wildcats took an ugly 44-30 win over Cal last Saturday, needing two long INT-return touchdowns from Collin Ellis to overcome injuries to starting QB Kain Colter (concussion) and RB Venric Mark as well as CBs Matthew Harris and Daniel Jones, who is out for the year after suffering a knee injury.

Colter is questionable for Saturday’s home showdown with Syracuse but oddsmakers have still tabbed banged-up NU as a 12-point favorite in Week 2.

The Orange gave Penn State a good fight in Week 1, losing 23-17 but covering as 8-point dogs at MetLife Stadium, and looked solid on defense. This spread will surely move up or down depending on Colter’s status.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2013, 01:09 PM

Ravens at Broncos

September 4, 2013

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the highly-anticipated rematch of the epic divisional playoff battle between the Ravens and Broncos. Baltimore knocked off Denver in two overtimes to end the Broncos' 11-game winning streak in Peyton Manning's debut in the Mile High City, en route to the franchise's second Super Bowl title. Now, the Broncos will take the field to get this campaign started again at Sports Authority Field against the Ravens as substantial favorites.

Rewinding back to the second round contest in January, Denver received a jolt of out the gate thanks to a 90-yard punt return for a score by Trindon Holliday less than three minutes in. The Ravens answered with a 59-yard touchdown strike from Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith to even things up at 7-7, while Baltimore's Corey Graham intercepted Manning and took the pick back 39 yards for a touchdown to give the Ravens a 14-7 lead five minutes into the game.

Following a pair of Manning touchdown strikes to Brandon Stokley and Knowshon Moreno to grab the lead back at 21-14 in the second quarter, Flacco connected again with Smith in the final minute of the first half to tie the game at 21-21 heading into halftime. The game total closed at 44, clinching an 'over' with a whole half to play since obviously there would need to be another score to break the deadlock.

Holliday stunned Baltimore's special teams coverage again with a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half, giving the Broncos back the advantage, 28-21. After Denver held a 35-28 lead and playing prevent defense in the final minute of regulation, Flacco aired out a 70-yard pass to Jacoby Jones, who got behind Denver's defense to even the game up again, while helping out Baltimore backers who grabbed the Ravens and 9 ½ points.

Justin Tucker's 48-yard field goal in the second overtime propelled Baltimore back to the AFC Title Game, as the Ravens own a 9-4 SU/ATS record in the playoffs since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008. Heading into Thursday's opener, Baltimore looks to improve on a 7-4 ATS record in the role of an underdog dating back to the start of the 2011 season, although three of those defeats came in 2012 to the Bengals, Redskins, and Texans on the road.

The Broncos eclipsed the 30-point mark in eight of nine games at Sports Authority Field last season, resulting in a 6-2-1 mark to the 'over.' John Fox's club profited in the home favorite role by cashing six of eight times, with one of the ATS defeats coming as 7 ½-point 'chalk' in a seven-point victory over the Chargers.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero gives his spin on this contest, "The Ravens have a few more questions to answer than Denver, which does have issues given its attrition at the center spot early in camp. That said, it's far more compelling to see how the defending champs replace staples on both sides of the ball. Making up for the production of Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta won't happen overnight, which is why Baltimore finds itself such a decided underdog. The odds of them coming up with another magical comeback works against them, making a strong start imperative."

Baltimore is the first defending Super Bowl champion to be listed as an underdog in the season opener since Tampa Bay back in 2003. The Buccaneers won outright as three-point 'dogs at Philadelphia, 17-0, as the Eagles lost in the revenge role after losing to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship the season before.

For those that take preseason into account when looking ahead to Week 1, both the Ravens and Broncos finished the exhibition campaign at 2-2. Denver covered just once, coming in the preseason opener at San Francisco, while the 'over' cashed in each of the final three contests. Baltimore took care of Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the first two exhibition games, but lost to Carolina and St. Louis in the last two contests.

The Thursday season-opener has been a low-scoring affair since 2007, as the 'under' has hit five of six times. Last season's initial game (which was played on a Wednesday) saw the Cowboys knock off the defending champion Giants, 24-17 as three-point underdogs, while the contest finished 'under' the total of 44 ½.

From the coaching perspective, Harbaugh has never lost a season opener in his career, posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record, but only one of those games came on the road (2010 at Jets). In Fox's first 11 seasons as an NFL head coach with the Panthers and Broncos, his teams have put together a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark in Week 1 contests in the favorite role (only cover against Steelers last season).

The Broncos opened up as 8 ½-point favorites with the number creeping up to nine at several spots before settling back to 7 ½. The total is set between 48 ½ and 49 depending on where you shop, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2013, 01:11 PM

Preview: Ravens (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)

Date: September 05, 2013 8:30 PM EDT

The Denver Broncos have waited almost eight months for their chance to avenge last season's dramatic divisional playoff loss to a Baltimore Ravens team that appears ready for the challenge.

Minus some familiar faces, the Super Bowl champion Ravens kick off the 2013 season Thursday night against the host Broncos, who hope to achieve the goal they fell short of a year ago.

Riding an 11-game winning streak and ahead by seven late in the fourth quarter, Denver appeared headed to the AFC championship game until safety Rahim Moore blew coverage and Baltimore's Joe Flacco connected with Jacoby Jones for a 70-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left, forcing overtime and stunning the Broncos. The Ravens went on to a 38-35 double-OT victory that propelled them to a 28-13 win at New England the next week, and they went on to beat San Francisco 34-31 to claim their first Super Bowl title since 2000.

"I've got a pretty good feeling that the Broncos fans are going to make us remember (and) think about everything that they want to," coach John Harbaugh told the Ravens' official website.

"We know the environment we're going into. It will be the same environment, or even tougher, than the one that we faced in January. And we're excited about that."

For the Broncos, it's a chance to resolve the past while providing a potential springboard for a promising season.

"It's not about me. It's about the team,' Moore said. "We all suffered. But the good thing about it is it's a whole new year. Nobody remembers what you did last year.'

Breaking a decade-long tradition of the Super Bowl champs opening the next season at home, Baltimore is playing on the road because the Orioles will be hosting the Chicago White Sox next door to M&T Stadium on Thursday. The teams share parking lots and a solution for both to play at home could not be reached.

In a marketing move to promote and celebrate the contest, the NFL installed a banner of Flacco along with one of Denver QB Peyton Manning outside Sports Authority Field. That, along with several lamp-post flags of Flacco throughout downtown Denver, didn't sit well with Broncos fans after he threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns - along with the long TD to Jones - in the playoff win.

The situation would have been avoided had the NFL and Major League Baseball been able to resolve the scheduling conflict.

"I can't imagine that people in our city would be too happy if somebody from another team was hanging on our stadium,' Flacco said. "(But) I didn't have anything to do with it.'

Looking to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since New England in 2004, Baltimore will be without some key contributors from last year, including two longtime pillars of the team's vaunted defense.

Future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis retired after 17 seasons and safety Ed Reed signed with Houston. Gone as well are leading tacklers Bernard Pollard and Dannell Ellerbe and fellow defensive starters Paul Kruger and Cary Williams.

However, linebacker Terrell Suggs and cornerback Lardarius Webb are healthy, and former Bronco Elvis Dumervil will try to bring down Manning instead of cheering him on.

The Pro Bowl linebacker agreed to a restructured contract with Denver, but the paperwork wasn't filed with the league office in time and the team was forced to release him. Dumervil, who combined with Von Miller for 29 1/2 of Denver's league-best 52 sacks last season, signed with Baltimore in March.

"I feel amazing,' said Dumervil, who has recorded 63 1/2 sacks in six seasons. "As of right now, I'm a Raven, and I feel great about that.'

Though last season's leading receiver Anquan Boldin is in San Francisco and tight end Dennis Pitta is out indefinitely with a fractured hip, Ray Rice remains in the backfield for the Ravens.

Rice's 1,143 rushing yards were his fewest since his 2008 rookie season, but he led the team with 10 total touchdowns and tied for second with 61 receptions. Rice's 7,505 yards from scrimmage since the start of the 2009 season are the most in the NFL.

He rushed for 131 yards and a TD on 30 carries in the playoff victory over Denver.

Flacco will be looking to live up to the six-year, $120.6 million contract he signed after throwing 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs. Including postseason, he's thrown for 956 yards with six TDs and one pick while going 3-1 against the Broncos.

He'll face a Denver team that ranked second in the NFL in total defense at 290.8 yards per game and fourth in scoring defense at 18.1 points. However, star linebacker Von Miller is suspended for the first six games for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, while cornerback Champ Bailey's is out due to a sprained left foot. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will start in Bailey's place.

Harbaugh still isn't taking the unit lightly.

"The Broncos are still the Broncos and they're going to put 11 excellent players on the field and they're going to put pass rushers out there who can rush,' he said.

Denver's ultimate fortunes hinge on the right arm of the 37-year-old Manning.

After missing the 2011 season to recover from neck surgery, Manning threw 37 TDs and recorded a 105.8 passer rating in his first year in Denver.

He passed for 290 yards and three TDs against Baltimore in the playoffs, but was intercepted twice and sacked three times.

Receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker combined to catch 23 touchdowns from Manning. Also in the mix is veteran Wes Welker, whose 672 receptions since the start of 2007 are the most in the NFL during that span.

Welker signed with the Broncos in the offseason after six years in New England.

Rookie Montee Ball, the NCAA FBS leader with 83 career touchdowns, joins Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman in a Denver backfield that for the time being will be by committee.

"I think as a team, this is our year,' Moore said. "I think we're going to do some big things. It's not going to be easy. Not at all. We have to remain the hunters.

"But we do have a chip on our shoulders, too.'

----------------------------------------------------------

NFL HEAD TO HEAD

Jan 12, 2013 Score ATS Results
BAL « 38 Cover: 12
DEN 35 Over: 73
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps

Dec 16, 2012 Score ATS Results
DEN « 34 Cover: 14
BAL 17 Over: 51
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps

**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2013, 07:00 PM

NFL

Thursday, September 5

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Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos
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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)

The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.

Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.

2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.

Announcement

The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

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