The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Selection:


San Francisco - 8:30 PM ET Seattle -3 500 POD # 1


Seattle - Under 44 500 POD # 2

[gimmemoney]

I was waiting for the Seattle game 10 minutes prior to kick off an didn't get to see this post. thought you weren't going post it. Took 49ers and lost. Can you post them a little early next time?

Thanks!

[StarDust Bum]

I posted the sunday night game a hour before kick off.......


Monday, September 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:40 PM ET Pittsburgh +6.5 500 POD # 1


Cincinnati - Under 40.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

“These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”

Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

“At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”

As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

“We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”

“I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

“You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

“We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Recap

September 16, 2013

Two weeks are in the books inside the new NFL season with a few surprises so far. Only three teams are undefeated in the NFC (Seattle, Chicago, and New Orleans), while the Chiefs and Dolphins are among five 2-0 squads in the AFC. We'll take a look at how things transpired in Week 2.

The Good

New Orleans and Chicago each rallied with late scores to improve to 2-0, but neither team cashed tickets. The Saints overcame a failed goal-line opportunity and a pick-six by the Buccaneers to stun Tampa Bay, 16-14 as 3 ½-point road favorites. New Orleans picked up its all-important second divisional win in two weeks, as the Saints return home to host the Cardinals next week.

The Bears came back from another second-half deficit at home to grab a victory, this time stunning Minnesota with a last-minute touchdown in a 31-30 triumph. Chicago pushed in its opener against Cincinnati, while failing to cover as six-point favorites in Sunday's one-point victory over Minnesota. The Bears hit the road for the first time in Week 3 with a trip to Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

The Surprising

Kansas City and Miami each didn't make the playoffs last season, but both clubs have jumped out to 2-0 starts. The Chiefs proved that the Week 1 blowout of lowly Jacksonville was no fluke, as Kansas City edged Dallas on Sunday, 17-16. Andy Reid's team didn't cash as three-point home favorites, but the Chiefs equaled their win total from last season already through two weeks.

The Dolphins found a way to win their first two road games, beating the Browns and Colts as short underdogs. Miami avenged a loss at Indianapolis from last season, as the Dolphins edged the Colts, 24-20 as 1 ½-point 'dogs. Joe Philbin's club is one of three teams that is both 2-0 SU/ATS (Seattle and Denver).

The Ugly

The Redskins have turned into the biggest disappointment through two games, just one season after winning the NFC East title. Washington's defense has allowed 71 points in losses to Philadelphia and Green Bay, while getting blown out by the Packers, 38-20 as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Redskins closed the 2012 regular season with seven consecutive wins and covers, as Washington looks to get in the win column for the first time this Sunday against Detroit.

Jacksonville has certainly clinched its spot as the worst team in the league after losses to Kansas City and Oakland. Things get even bleaker this Sunday when the Jags travel to Seattle as 19 ½-point road underdogs, as Jacksonville has scored just 11 points in two defeats. The only piece of good news for the Jags is the team covered all three times last season as a double-digit underdog.

The Middle

The Jets, Cardinals, and Titans have all split their first two games, but the three clubs have each cashed twice in the underdog role. New York pulled out an improbable win over Tampa Bay in the opener, while hanging with the Patriots throughout in a 13-10 loss as 11-point road underdogs last Thursday night. The Jets are listed as short home favorites against the rival Bills in Week 3.

Arizona blew an 11-point lead in a road cover at St. Louis in Week 1, but rallied past Detroit in its home opener on Sunday, 25-21. The Cardinals head to the Big Easy on Sunday, which will be anything but against the 2-0 Saints.

Tennessee won at Pittsburgh in the season opener as six-point underdogs, while blowing a fantastic opportunity in an overtime loss at Houston in Week 2. The Titans are turning into a good value play through two weeks, but will be listed as a favorite for the first time this season when the Chargers play their second straight road game in Nashville in Week 3.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Power Poll


Division Rankings

The 49ers didn't show up in Seattle, but the rest of the division showed why it's held in such high esteem. The Rams pushed Atlanta on the road and Arizona defeated Detroit to ensure every team had at least a .500 record thus far. No other division in the NFC can say the same. The AFC East and AFC West has seen each of its teams notch wins and are a combined 12-4, moving up against an AFC North that suddenly looks below-average due to Pittsburgh and Cleveland lacking punch. It can be argued that the NFC East, filled with four of pro football's most visible teams, has housed the biggest underachievers through the first two weeks.

1) NFC West
2) NFC North
3) AFC East
4) AFC West
5) NFC East
6) AFC South
7) NFC South
8) AFC North

Playoff Projections

NFC
1) Seattle
2) Atlanta
3) Philadelphia
4) Detroit
5) San Francisco
6) Chicago

AFC
1) Houston
2) Denver
3) New England
4) Baltimore
5) Cincinnati
6) Indianapolis

Super Bowl XLVIII Prediction

San Francisco over Denver - Yeah, the 49ers looked lost at Qwest Field, but it's a long season. Colin Kaepernick has all year to make the improvements necessary to get another shot at Super Bowl glory. Peyton Manning is playing as well as any quarterback ever has, authoring an unprecedented two-game stretch with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

“These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”

Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

“At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”

As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

“We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”

“I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”


Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

“You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”


Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

“We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)

If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick’em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.

After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.

Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").

Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.

Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.

Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet

The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.

There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.

Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.

The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.

The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.

The Seahawks aren’t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).

Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.

The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.

Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/19/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, September 22

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (1 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-164 ATS (-51.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-91 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-128 ATS (-46.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in September games since 1992.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 2) - 9/22/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 23

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OAKLAND (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0) - 9/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19th, 2013

Kansas City at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 14-5 Under off an Under
Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS in home games


Sunday, September 22nd, 2013

San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 21-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Tennessee: 6-0 Over after allowing 400+ total yards

Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 18-7 Under in dome stadiums
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off a road game

Tampa Bay at New England, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off BB losses
New England: 10-2 ATS off a division game

Houston at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Baltimore: 21-8 Under vs. AFC South opponents

St. Louis at Dallas, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 4-16 ATS off BB games gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Dallas: 25-12 Over at home off BB ATS wins

Arizona at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 6-0 Under away off a win
New Orleans: 14-4 ATS in home games

Detroit at Washington, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 14-4 Over in road games
Washington: 11-25 ATS at home in September

Green Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 10-2 Over off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

NY Giants at Carolina, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 23-10 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Carolina: 23-10 Under at home in the first month of the season

Atlanta at Miami, 4:05 ET
Atlanta: 17-5 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Miami: 0-8 ATS off BB road wins

Indianapolis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 26-6 Over off a SU loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 14-5 ATS in home games

Jacksonville at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Jacksonville: 5-14 ATS off an Under
Seattle: 8-1 ATS in home games

Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 30-11 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
NY Jets: 2-13 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win

Chicago at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
Chicago: 18-33 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 19-8 ATS at home off a division loss


Monday, September 23rd, 2013

Oakland at Denver, 8:40 ET ESPN
Oakland: 13-4 Over away after allowing 50 or less rushing yards
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

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NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 19

8:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games


Sunday, September 22

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 19 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Carolina
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CINCINNATI
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ENGLAND
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games at home
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SEATTLE
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Seattle's last 23 games at home

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


Monday, September 23

8:40 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

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Tech Trends - Week 3

September 18, 2013


Thursday, Sept. 19 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles Andy Reid Bowl! Andy just 3-13 vs. line last season with Birds but 2-0 TY with Chiefs. Andy Eagle teams had always been good road dogs, 23-13 in role from 2003-12. Chiefs were 21-14 as road dog from 2007-11 before LY. Note Birds "over" 8-1 at home since LY. Slight to Chiefs and "over," based on extended Andy trends.




Sunday, Sept. 22 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans Bolts "over" 19-7 last 25 away. SD also 5-2 as road dog with Norv LY. "Over," based on Chargers "totals" trends.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings Browns "under" 27-11 last 38 since late 2010. Vikes 3-7-1 as chalk since 2011. "Under" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots Pats no cover first two TY and also "under" in those after 38-15-1 "over" mark prior. Belichick just 9-13 as home chalk since 2011. Schiano 5-2 as road dog LY. Bucs and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Kubiak 0-2 vs. line TY but 26-13-1 vs. points since late 2010. If dog, note Kubiak 5-3 in role since 2011. Ravens 8-14 last 22 reg.-season games vs. line. Texans, based on team trends.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys Jeff Fisher 7-1 vs. line as road dog LY for Rams. St. Louis also 10-3 as dog for Fisher since 2012. Rams also "over" first two TY. Dallas 3-13 last 16 as home chalk, also "over" 7-2 at home since LY. Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints The Sean Payton Saints (excluding 2012) have won and covered 10 straight at Superdome. Saints, based on home trends.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins Lions "over" 17-8-1 last 25 on road since late 2010. If dog, Lions only 5-9-1 in role since 2011, however. Skins had covered last 7 reg. season games in 2012 but have dropped first two in 2013. "Over," based on Lions' road "totals" trends.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals Pack only 5-4 as dog since 2010 after 13-4-1 mark in role previous three seasons. Pack 11-5 vs. line against AFC since 2009. Even with Monday win over Steelers, Cincy just 7-9-1 vs. line as host since 2011. Packers, based on team trends.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Note Panthers "under" 29-17-3 at home since 2006. G-Men were 11-3 as dog past two seasons prior to losses vs. Cowboys & Broncos. Giants and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.




Sunday, Sept. 22 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins If Dolphins home chalk note awful 10-33 mark in role since 2003, though better 5-4 in role past two seasons. Miami "under" 23-11 since 2011. Falcs 5-2-1 vs. line away LY, also "under" 12-6 in reg. season since LY. Falcons and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers Bay Area connections on Colts. For all of the Colts hype last season, they were only 2-5 vs. line as road dog. Harbaugh 14-4-1 vs. line at Stick since 2011. Niners also "over" 7-3 last 10 at home. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends..


Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll 8-0 SU, 7-1 vs. line at home LY, now 13-45 last 17 vs. spread as host. Jags "under" 22-12 last 34 since 2011. Seahawks and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends..


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Rexy now "under" 6-1 L7 since late 2012 after Pats game. Bills only 4-9-1 as road dog past two seasons pre-Marrone. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.




Sunday, Sept. 22 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers After extended "over" run for several years at Heinz Field, Steelers now "under" 11-1 last 12 as host. After Monday loss at Cincy, Pitt also 8-15 last 23 vs. line overall since late 2011. "Under" and Bears, based on recent "totals" and Steelers trends.




Monday, Sept. 23 - ESPN, Game to start at 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos Broncos have covered last seven and 11 of last 13 reg.-season games. Denver has also won and covered last three vs. Raiders. Both meetings "under" LY but Broncos "over" 38-18-2 since late in 2009. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

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Preview: Chiefs (2-0) at Eagles (1-1)


Date: September 19, 2013 8:25 PM EDT


Amidst the hype and emotion surrounding Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia this week, the veteran coach is doing his best to focus only on making sure the Kansas City Chiefs remain unbeaten.

Facing the Eagles for the first time since they fired him after 14 years as coach, Reid looks to guide the Chiefs to a 3-0 start Thursday night.

After leading Philadelphia to nine playoff appearances, six NFC East titles, five conference championship games and a Super Bowl berth, it's likely Reid will be consumed by plenty of emotions when he sets foot on Lincoln Financial Field. However, at least publicly, Reid is more concerned with preparing his new team on a short week to face an Eagles squad that has scored 63 points while starting 1-1.

"In this business you're focused in on getting your team ready to play," Reid told the Chiefs' official website. "That's where my energy is going to go. I haven't really thought about that other part at all. I don't necessarily plan on thinking about that. I want to make sure I concentrate on the game at hand and anything else becomes a distraction and I'm not going to let that happen.

"Every coach tells you these Thursday nights, it's a quick turnaround, and you just have to go. It's something you have to do. You buckle down and make sure you get it done.'

After falling 33-30 at home to San Diego on Sunday, the Eagles are also sticking to the company line of focusing on the game and not Reid's return, which comes on the same night former quarterback Donovan McNabb's No. 5 jersey will be retired.

"It's just another football game,' said Philadelphia's Michael Vick, who has thrown for 631 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while posting the NFL's third-highest passer rating at 119.0. "We have to get ready, we can't focus on the whole dynamic of the situation. We have a football game to prepare for, and we have to do everything to ensure that we have a chance to win the football game. That is what is most important. It's our third game in 11 days, but we're conditioned for it.

"We're ready for it.'

Vick and his teammates understand that these are not the same Chiefs who went 2-14 in 2012.

"Most of these guys are from last year and the taste we had in our mouths last year, nobody ever wants to feel that again,' Kansas City defensive tackle Dontari Poe said. "Everybody's focused. Everybody is working hard and making sure that don't happen.'

Kansas City, which last started 3-0 in 2010, trailed Dallas by six in the third quarter Sunday before Alex Smith hit Dwayne Bowe with a go-ahead 12-yard TD in a 17-16 victory.

Smith has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Defensively, the Chiefs have allowed one touchdown and recorded nine sacks, but they face a daunting task this week.

Under Reid's replacement Chip Kelly, Philadelphia's fast-paced, no-huddle offense has totaled 954 yards and seven touchdowns. LeSean McCoy has rushed for 237 yards on 42 carries and gained 119 on six receptions.

A rib injury limited receiver DeSean Jackson to 45 receptions, 700 yards and two TDs in 11 games in 2012, but he's caught 16 balls for 297 and matched that touchdown total this year.

"We've studied them a lot in the offseason," Kansas City defensive coordinator Bob Sutton said. "We've been grinding since (Sunday) night. I don't think the problem will be seeing it, the problem will be getting the plan in and executing it.'

Some questionable clock management late in Philadelphia's loss Sunday proved Kelly is learning on the job.

His offense continued running the hurry-up on their tying drive late in the fourth quarter that featured three straight incomplete passes taking up 14 seconds. After Alex Henery's 32-yard field goal tied it at 30, Philip Rivers had plenty of time to march the Chargers 51 yards to set up Nick Novak's go-ahead 46-yarder with 7 seconds remaining.

"Could we have (run more of a ball-controlled offense)? Sure,' Kelly said. "But we wouldn't have scored a lot of points. So you're in a Catch 22. We were behind, so you've got to try to score to get back into the game, and you can play that game and say, `Hey, let's work the clock here a little bit.' But if you start handcuffing our offense, then we may not have scored enough points to make it even a tied game, so now you're playing the other way."

Philadelphia has won three straight against Kansas City, most recently 34-14 at home in 2009. Jackson caught six passes for 149 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown from Kevin Kolb. Tight end Brent Celek had eight for 104 yards with a score and McCoy rushed for 84 and a TD.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 18, 2013


Thursday, Sept. 19 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles Andy Reid Bowl! Andy just 3-13 vs. line last season with Birds but 2-0 TY with Chiefs. Andy Eagle teams had always been good road dogs, 23-13 in role from 2003-12. Chiefs were 21-14 as road dog from 2007-11 before LY. Note Birds "over" 8-1 at home since LY. Slight to Chiefs and "over," based on extended Andy trends.


Sunday, Sept. 22 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans Bolts "over" 19-7 last 25 away. SD also 5-2 as road dog with Norv LY. "Over," based on Chargers "totals" trends.


Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings Browns "under" 27-11 last 38 since late 2010. Vikes 3-7-1 as chalk since 2011. "Under" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots Pats no cover first two TY and also "under" in those after 38-15-1 "over" mark prior. Belichick just 9-13 as home chalk since 2011. Schiano 5-2 as road dog LY. Bucs and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Kubiak 0-2 vs. line TY but 26-13-1 vs. points since late 2010. If dog, note Kubiak 5-3 in role since 2011. Ravens 8-14 last 22 reg.-season games vs. line. Texans, based on team trends.


St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys Jeff Fisher 7-1 vs. line as road dog LY for Rams. St. Louis also 10-3 as dog for Fisher since 2012. Rams also "over" first two TY. Dallas 3-13 last 16 as home chalk, also "over" 7-2 at home since LY. Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints The Sean Payton Saints (excluding 2012) have won and covered 10 straight at Superdome. Saints, based on home trends.


Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins Lions "over" 17-8-1 last 25 on road since late 2010. If dog, Lions only 5-9-1 in role since 2011, however. Skins had covered last 7 reg. season games in 2012 but have dropped first two in 2013. "Over," based on Lions' road "totals" trends.


Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals Pack only 5-4 as dog since 2010 after 13-4-1 mark in role previous three seasons. Pack 11-5 vs. line against AFC since 2009. Even with Monday win over Steelers, Cincy just 7-9-1 vs. line as host since 2011. Packers, based on team trends.


New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Note Panthers "under" 29-17-3 at home since 2006. G-Men were 11-3 as dog past two seasons prior to losses vs. Cowboys & Broncos. Giants and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.



Sunday, Sept. 22 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET


Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins If Dolphins home chalk note awful 10-33 mark in role since 2003, though better 5-4 in role past two seasons. Miami "under" 23-11 since 2011. Falcs 5-2-1 vs. line away LY, also "under" 12-6 in reg. season since LY. Falcons and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers Bay Area connections on Colts. For all of the Colts hype last season, they were only 2-5 vs. line as road dog. Harbaugh 14-4-1 vs. line at Stick since 2011. Niners also "over" 7-3 last 10 at home. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends..


Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll 8-0 SU, 7-1 vs. line at home LY, now 13-45 last 17 vs. spread as host. Jags "under" 22-12 last 34 since 2011. Seahawks and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends..


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Rexy now "under" 6-1 L7 since late 2012 after Pats game. Bills only 4-9-1 as road dog past two seasons pre-Marrone. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Sept. 22 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET


Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers After extended "over" run for several years at Heinz Field, Steelers now "under" 11-1 last 12 as host. After Monday loss at Cincy, Pitt also 8-15 last 23 vs. line overall since late 2011. "Under" and Bears, based on recent "totals" and Steelers trends.


Monday, Sept. 23 - ESPN, Game to start at 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos Broncos have covered last seven and 11 of last 13 reg.-season games. Denver has also won and covered last three vs. Raiders. Both meetings "under" LY but Broncos "over" 38-18-2 since late in 2009. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.