The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Kansas City at Philadelphia
The Chiefs look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Game 301-302: Kansas City at Philadelphia (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.509; Philadelphia 130.236
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

Game 391-392: San Diego at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.342; Tennessee 134.302
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

Game 393-394: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.172; Minnesota 133.319
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6); Under

Game 395-396: Tampa Bay at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.386; New England 136.949
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+8 1/2); Over

Game 397-398: Houston at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.238; Baltimore 132.105
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Under

Game 399-400: St. Louis at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.811; Dallas 129.672
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+4); Over

Game 401-402: Arizona at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.448; New Orleans 138.542
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 12; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Over

Game 403-404: Detroit at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.676; Washington 131.005
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Green Bay at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.654; Cincinnati 133.804
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: NY Giants at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.321; Carolina 133.490
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+1 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Atlanta at Miami (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.960; Miami 137.804
Dunkel Line: Miami by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Miami by 2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Under

Game 411-412: Indianapolis at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.403; San Francisco 138.064
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+10 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 120.240; Seattle 136.172
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 19 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+19 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Buffalo at NY Jets (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.258; NY Jets 132.040
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Chicago at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.996; Pittsburgh 130.042
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 36
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

Game 419-420: Oakland at Denver (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 127.801; Denver 139.776
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12; 54
Vegas Line: Denver by 15 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 3 of the NFL schedule has been a busy time for books. With oddsmakers and football bettors getting a better handle on the league, those opinions are coming into play and have multiple lines on the move as the weekend draws closer.

We talk to sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the NFL Week 3 board.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: +1, Move: +3

The Bengals’ win on Monday did little to impress bettors, who have driven this number as high as a field goal at some books. According to Jay Rood, Vice President of race and sports at MGM, nearly 98 percent of the early money is on the Packers.

“It’s been all Packers and we’re likely going to follow the pack and go to -2.5,” Rood, who opened Green Bay -2, told Covers. “Outside of a small bet on the Bengals, it’s been all Green Bay on straight-up bets, teasers, and parlays.”

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3.5, Move: -6.5

Cleveland is going with third-string QB Brian Hoyer Sunday after No. 1 Brandon Weeden suffered a thumb injury against Baltimore last week. On top of that, the Browns traded RB Trent Richardson to the Colts Wednesday night. That’s pushed this spread a field goal and could continue to add points to the line.

“With a healthy Weeden, they average a poultry 5.8 yards per completion - ranked 28th in NFL. And now with the announcement that Brian Hoyer is getting the start ahead of Jason Campbell, I can’t see how Cleveland is going to move the ball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com tells Covers.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

This game opened as low as a pick but money is siding with the Redskins and has moved the spread a near field goal as of Wednesday afternoon.

“There is a lean toward Washington but the sharps haven’t tipped their hand on this one,” says Rood. “The public is hooking up on Washington and the Over.”

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – Open: -9.5, Move: -7
[/b]
The Cardinals have been better than expected in the first two weeks of the season and money on Arizona has echoed that sentiment, with almost all the action taking the road team down as low as a touchdown underdog. Rood believes some football fans aren’t quite sold on New Orleans as a contender just yet.

“They’re like any other team adjusting to a new head coach,” he says. “There are a lot of players on the Saints that haven’t played under (head coach Sean) Peyton. And he’s coming back with a new eye for this team. It’s kind of like the Saints have had three head coaches in three years. It’s going to take some time. This team right now will be completely different come Week 10 or 11.”

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins – Open: Pick, Move: -3

The Dolphins are the wiseguys’ choice this week, moving this spread as many as three points at some books. According to Rood, the MGM Mirage took a limit play on Miami ($30,000) Wednesday morning, forcing them to move the line from Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5.

“The public money, however, is all over the Falcons on straight-up bets and parlays,” says Rood. “This is a classic matchup of sharps versus public. We don’t want to go to Miami -3 right away but could if the sharps keep pushing it.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -16.5, Move: -20

Some books were bet up to this monstrous spread while others boldly opened Seattle as a 20-point favorite hosting the lowly Jaguars Sunday. According to Childs, the early money came from sharps who gladly laid the 17 points. When the public got involved, they jumped from -18 straight to -20.

“Since going to 20, we’ve actually written nice two-way action on this game, so I can’t see us moving off that number any time soon,” he says.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14

At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

“You just can’t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,” Roods says of Denver’s ailing offensive line.

“With these big spreads, the teams don’t care about them,” he says. “If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they’re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There’s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Chiefs (2-0) @ Eagles (1-1)—Reid coached Philly for the last 14 years, was fired LY, now he returns home at 2-0 for just second time as a HC.. Eagles on short week for second week in row; Monn-Sun-Thurs start is tough scheduling spot, though last two games were at Linc. KC won its first two games without turning ball over (+4) and allowing just 108 yards on 39 rushes. Philly defense allowed 53 points in its last six quarters; Chargers were 10-15 on 3rd down last week and gained 539 yards. Eagles are now 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorite, 6-11 in last 17 vs AFC teams- they won last three series games, by 13-6-20 points, but AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games thru first two weeks of season. Chiefs were 2-6 as road dogs LY, after being 21-13 the five years before that. Weird doing trends for this game, since all the Eagle trends actually refer to the Chiefs’ new coach.




NFL

Thursday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting: Chiefs at Eagles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50.5)

Andy Reid returns to the city where he thrived - and eventually nosedived - when he guides the Kansas City Chiefs into a Thursday night matchup with the host Philadelphia Eagles. Reid enjoyed a spectacular run during his 14-year tenure with the Eagles, bringing the team to five conference championship games and one Super Bowl appearance. Philadelphia flamed out in Reid's final two seasons, leading to his dismissal and the offseason hiring of Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

Reid has the Chiefs off to a surprising 2-0 start to match their win total from last season that locked up the No. 1 overall pick for Kansas City in the NFL Draft. Kelly, whose fast-break offense is the talk of the league after Philadelphia rolled up 63 points in splitting its first two games, said he is not concerned about the emotional impact of Reid's homecoming. “I think they’re locked in,” Kelly said. “We met and we talked about the Kansas City Chiefs, so that’s not a concern."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Eagles opened -3 and went as high as -3.5 before coming back down to a field goal. The total opened 49.5 and has been bet up to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (0.0) + Eagles (+1.0) + Home field (-3.0) = Eagles -2

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Reid was castigated during his time in Philly for a tendency to abandon the running game so quickly, and Jamaal Charles - a 1,500-yard rusher last season - is averaging 66 yards on 16 carries in each of the first two games. Charles does have 11 catches in the West Coast offense run by quarterback Alex Smith, who has been quietly efficient with four touchdowns and zero turnovers - a welcome change for a team that tied the Eagles and New York Jets for the most giveaways with 37 in 2012. Kansas City's defense has been integral to the early success, allowing 18 points and only one touchdown.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-1, 1-1 ATS): Kelly's rapid-fire offense has been a boon for quarterback Michael Vick, who is enjoying a renaissance after throwing for a career-high 428 yards in Sunday's 33-30 loss to San Diego. Wideout DeSean Jackson, a malcontent for most of the previous two seasons, tops the league with 297 yards receiving while running back LeSean McCoy has piled up an NFL-high 237 yards rushing. Philadelphia's defense could not slow Washington in the second half of the season opener and was carved up by San Diego's Philip Rivers in a loss that was compounded by Kelly's clock mismanagement in the final minutes.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.
* Eagles are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Chiefs last five road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Eagles last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Chiefs and Eagles were each a league-worst minus-24 in turnover differential last season.

2. Vick is tied with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers for the most yards (10.3) per passing attempt.

3. The Eagles have won the last three matchups, including a 34-14 home win in September 2009.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Thursday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two new head coaches prowl the sidelines on Thursday Night Football, with former Eagles coach Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia to match wits with Chip Kelly and his revamped offense. Oddsmakers have set the Eagles as 3-point home favorites.

We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Kelly’s high-octane offense has been as good as advertised, averaging 477 yards and 31.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Philadelphia is running an average of 68 plays per game for 7.0 yards per snap, the majority of those coming on the ground. The Eagles have utilized dual-threat QB Mike Vick and RB LeSean McCoy, turning to the rush attack an average of 34.5 times for 176 yards per game. Speedster WR DeSean Jackson is also benefiting from Kelly’s offense, totaling 297 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Kansas City is on the opposite end of that scale, running an average of 63.5 plays per game and not exploding for big gains, topping out at 4.8 yards per play. That could be to the Chiefs' advantage if they want to put the breaks on the Eagles Thursday. RB Jamaal Charles and QB Alex Smith have done damage on the ground, helping K.C. rank eighth in rushing yards per game (117.5). That West Coast offense has limited the passing game somewhat, with the Chiefs putting up an average of only 185 yards through the air and picking up 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

Edge: Philadelphia


Defense

Philadelphia is among the bottom of the league in most defensive categories through the first two weeks. The Eagles are allowing an average of 30 points on 460.5 yards per game, including 33 points and 413 passing yards in the loss to San Diego in Week 2. They aren’t getting pressure on the opposing passers, with just two sacks on the season. Philadelphia is thin in the secondary with CB Brandon Hughes injuring his hamstring last week.

Kansas City’s stop unit looks like it could be one of the best in the league this season. The Chiefs shutdown the Cowboys' passing game in the second half in Week 2 and only gave up six points in the final two quarters. Kansas City has locked the door on third downs as well, allowing foes to move the chains on third down just 26.67 percent of time. However, half of these defensive numbers have come versus Jacksonville and must be taken with a grain of salt.

Edge: Kansas City


Special teams

Philadelphia is averaging 22.3 yards per kickoff return but is only forcing opponents to punt two times per game though the first two weeks, and hasn’t had a chance to return those punts. On the other side, the Eagles are giving up 21.3 yards per kickoff and only 4.8 yards per punt. Kicker Alex Henery is 4-for-5 on FG attempts, going 2-for-3 from 40-49 yards.

Kansas City has attempted only two kickoff returns thanks to the new rules and is averaging 12.5 yards per return. On punts, the Chiefs are picking up a respectable 12.1 yards on returns. The special teams defense is struggling to lock up returners, allowing 27.7 yards per kickoff return and 11.0 yards per punt return. They also had a punt blocked for a safety in Week 1. Kicker Ryan Succop has only been called upon twice this season but is 1-for-2 on FG attempts, with a blocked 50-yarder versus Dallas last weekend.

Edge: Philadelphia


Notable quotables

"It means a lot, so I hope we go out there and play for our coach. You know what I'm saying? I know he has a lot of love for his Eagles, he worked there a lot of years and he probably wishes he was still coaching there." – Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles.

"Andy was here for a long time with those guys, so if you know what they’re good at (you have an advantage), but he doesn’t know our scheme and how we deploy those guys. He may have some little ins and outs. There’s a familiarity, obviously he’s familiar with Trent (Cole), he’s familiar with DeMeco (Ryans) and those guys, but the scheme defensively has changed, the scheme offensively has changed and the scheme on special teams has changed. … From a physical standpoint he’s probably got a real intimate knowledge of this team." – Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends for your perusal, with Week 3 on the horizon.......

-- Raiders covered nine of last 13 tries as a double digit underdog.

-- Tennessee is 8-15 vs spread last 23 times it was a favorite.

-- 49ers are 14-4-1 vs spread in their last nineteen home games.

-- Atlanta is 11-4-1 vs spread when facing AFC teams the last four years.

-- Washington is 5-15 vs spread last 20 times they were a non-divisional home favorite.

-- Dallas is 7-21-1 vs spread in last 29 games as a favorite.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13...........

32) Jaguars—One TD in two games, didn’t even cover as 6.5-point dogs in Oakland where Raiders had been 9-23 as a home favorite over last decade. 20-point dogs this week- they do have sharp-looking uniforms though.

31) Browns—Horrendous uniforms and now their QB is hurt after failing to score a TD in Baltimore last week. Looks like they're going with Hoyer over the more experienced Campbell this week, a curious decision.

Trading Trent Richardson to the Colts gives them two #1 picks next April and is kicking sand in face of previous Browns adminiustration.

30) Panthers—Lot of times I watch Carolina games because I enjoy watching Cam Newton play, but for Pete’s sake, could you give him a better OC than Mike Shula? How can an NFL franchise that has to be worth a half a billion dollars pinch pennies with its coaching staff?

What else is there to spend money on? You want to pinch pennies, fire the cheerleaders. Good grief. Anyway, they should’ve won in Buffalo last week and now a desperate 0-2 Giant team comes calling. Interesting game.

29) Redskins—Outscored 50-7 in first half of their two games; no one seems to know if QB is hurt, or if his knee is just restricting his movement. They better beat Detroit this week, or things could get ugly, since we’re such a patient society these days.

28) Steelers—You can’t run the ball without an adequate offensive line; actually, you can’t do much of anything with a leaky OL, but at least if they let Big Ben throw the ball a lot, they’d have a better chance to win and they’d be watchable.

8) 49ers—They got smoked in Seattle LY too and wound up in the Super Bowl. Niners host Harbaugh’s old team this week, as Luck returns to the Bay Area with his Colts.

7) Chiefs—Trivia; KC was first team, other than Lombardi’s Packers, to play in two Super Bowls, but they haven’t been in one since winning Super Bowl IV. Reid’s 2-0 start has people in KC optimistic again.

6) Texans—First team since at least 1970 to start 2-0 while winning both games on last play of the game; tough game in Baltimore this week, with Andre Johnson banged-up. Clemson rookie WR Hopkins looks like a keeper.

5) Patriots—Will be interesting to follow their WR’s progress, as they learn NFL game from ground up. am thinking they’ll be lot tougher after their bye week.

4) Saints—Won first two games by skin of their teeth; could be a team that needs home field in playoffs, or at least to play in a dome somewhere- they seemed out of sync outdoors on grass last week.

3) Dolphins—Hey, you start an NFL season with two road wins, and I don’t care who they were against, you get ranked this high. Miami didn’t have a penalty last week; hope they get a sellout for their home opener with Atlanta this week.

2) Seahawks—Really good on defense, still not sold on their passing game. Scored 12 points at Carolina, completed less than half their passes against 49ers last week. Championship-level teams do better than that.

1) Broncos—Speaking of which, they’ve scored 90 points in two games against good teams. Now we’ll see how they do as 14-point favorites against a bitter dicvisional rival Monday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Chiefs (2-0) at Eagles (1-1)

Date: September 19, 2013 8:25 PM EDT


Amidst the hype and emotion surrounding Andy Reid's return to Philadelphia this week, the veteran coach is doing his best to focus only on making sure the Kansas City Chiefs remain unbeaten.

Facing the Eagles for the first time since they fired him after 14 years as coach, Reid looks to guide the Chiefs to a 3-0 start Thursday night.

After leading Philadelphia to nine playoff appearances, six NFC East titles, five conference championship games and a Super Bowl berth, it's likely Reid will be consumed by plenty of emotions when he sets foot on Lincoln Financial Field. However, at least publicly, Reid is more concerned with preparing his new team on a short week to face an Eagles squad that has scored 63 points while starting 1-1.

"In this business you're focused in on getting your team ready to play," Reid told the Chiefs' official website. "That's where my energy is going to go. I haven't really thought about that other part at all. I don't necessarily plan on thinking about that. I want to make sure I concentrate on the game at hand and anything else becomes a distraction and I'm not going to let that happen.

"Every coach tells you these Thursday nights, it's a quick turnaround, and you just have to go. It's something you have to do. You buckle down and make sure you get it done.'

After falling 33-30 at home to San Diego on Sunday, the Eagles are also sticking to the company line of focusing on the game and not Reid's return, which comes on the same night former quarterback Donovan McNabb's No. 5 jersey will be retired.

"It's just another football game,' said Philadelphia's Michael Vick, who has thrown for 631 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while posting the NFL's third-highest passer rating at 119.0. "We have to get ready, we can't focus on the whole dynamic of the situation. We have a football game to prepare for, and we have to do everything to ensure that we have a chance to win the football game. That is what is most important. It's our third game in 11 days, but we're conditioned for it.

"We're ready for it.'

Vick and his teammates understand that these are not the same Chiefs who went 2-14 in 2012.

"Most of these guys are from last year and the taste we had in our mouths last year, nobody ever wants to feel that again,' Kansas City defensive tackle Dontari Poe said. "Everybody's focused. Everybody is working hard and making sure that don't happen.'

Kansas City, which last started 3-0 in 2010, trailed Dallas by six in the third quarter Sunday before Alex Smith hit Dwayne Bowe with a go-ahead 12-yard TD in a 17-16 victory.

Smith has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Defensively, the Chiefs have allowed one touchdown and recorded nine sacks, but they face a daunting task this week.

Under Reid's replacement Chip Kelly, Philadelphia's fast-paced, no-huddle offense has totaled 954 yards and seven touchdowns. LeSean McCoy has rushed for 237 yards on 42 carries and gained 119 on six receptions.

A rib injury limited receiver DeSean Jackson to 45 receptions, 700 yards and two TDs in 11 games in 2012, but he's caught 16 balls for 297 and matched that touchdown total this year.

"We've studied them a lot in the offseason," Kansas City defensive coordinator Bob Sutton said. "We've been grinding since (Sunday) night. I don't think the problem will be seeing it, the problem will be getting the plan in and executing it.'

Some questionable clock management late in Philadelphia's loss Sunday proved Kelly is learning on the job.

His offense continued running the hurry-up on their tying drive late in the fourth quarter that featured three straight incomplete passes taking up 14 seconds. After Alex Henery's 32-yard field goal tied it at 30, Philip Rivers had plenty of time to march the Chargers 51 yards to set up Nick Novak's go-ahead 46-yarder with 7 seconds remaining.

"Could we have (run more of a ball-controlled offense)? Sure,' Kelly said. "But we wouldn't have scored a lot of points. So you're in a Catch 22. We were behind, so you've got to try to score to get back into the game, and you can play that game and say, `Hey, let's work the clock here a little bit.' But if you start handcuffing our offense, then we may not have scored enough points to make it even a tied game, so now you're playing the other way."

Philadelphia has won three straight against Kansas City, most recently 34-14 at home in 2009. Jackson caught six passes for 149 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown from Kevin Kolb. Tight end Brent Celek had eight for 104 yards with a score and McCoy rushed for 84 and a TD.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:25 PM ET Philadelphia -3 500 POD # 1


Philadelphia - Over 50 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Sharp Moves

September 20, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Here’s a look at some of the sharpest positions available on the Week 3 board!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Friday morning, which can be found here.

(Rotation #398) Baltimore Ravens – The Texans have never won a game in Baltimore in their history, and there is no doubt that the boys from the Lone Star State have a lot of explaining to do after barely hanging on against the Chargers and Titans in the first two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Baltimore +2.5
Current Line: Baltimore +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Houston

(Rotation #406) Cincinnati Bengals – Basically the same game. The Bengals are at home against a team that is expected to win its division this year. Green Bay and Cincinnati are both better than Houston and Baltimore respectively, but the concept is exactly the same.

Opening Line: Cincinnati -1
Current Line: Cincinnati +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Green Bay

(Rotation #410) Miami Dolphins – Miami was sharp as a tack last week, and it was able to go on the road and upset the Colts for the straight up win. Now in its home opener, it gets an Atlanta team that doesn't have its best running back, its best defensive linemen, one of its top corners, and its fullback.

Opening Line: Miami -1
Current Line: Miami -3
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Atlanta

(Rotation #416) New York Jets – Again, basically the same game that we just spoke about. The Jets are laying just short of a field goal against a team that should at least be a little bit better than they are on paper. The difference is that we're talking about two teams that stand little to no chance of getting into the playoffs instead of two teams that are going to be fighting for bids to get into the second season.

Opening Line: New York -1
Current Line: New York -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Buffalo

(Rotation #418) Pittsburgh Steelers – See: Baltimore and Cincinnati. Unless the entire AFC North really does just turn out to be wretched this year, all three of these teams are clearly fantastic bets in Week 3. Do you remember the last time that the Steelers were underdogs in a game at home with a healthy QB Ben Roethlisberger under center? Try going back to the 2008 playoffs. The last time it happened in the regular season was Big Ben's rookie year.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +2
Current Line: Pittsburgh +2.5
Public Betting Percentages: 66% on Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3

September 21, 2013


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Browns are 16-0-1 ATS since Dec 10, 2000 the week after a loss in which they punted at least eight times and allowed more than 10 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Saints are 0-11 ATS since October 3, 2004 if not a home dog, when they won by 1-3 points last week.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Steve Smith is 9-0 ATS since September 18, 2011 after a road game where he had at least 5 receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-11 OU in franchise history with more than three days rest following a home game where they held their opponent on at least 10 third down attempts.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which are 0-2 and at least five point favorites are 23- 11 ATS. Active on Minnesota.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Bears are 12-0 OU since November 28, 2010 when the total is under 47 vs a non-divisional opponent with a divisional opponent next game.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

Week 3 wraps up with the Raiders and Broncos in a Monday nighter and you can count Oakland as one of the teams who were most unhappy to see Peyton Manning making the move up to Mile High last season. Before 2012, the Raiders were riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak in Denver and Manning put an emphatic end to that run with a 37-6 win. Denver opened with a long TD drive and took a lead they would never relinquish. It was 10-6 at half-time and the Raiders were outscored 27-0 in the second-half. The Raiders amassed just 237 total yards on offense, more than 100 yards below their final season avg (344 yards).

The total this week is listed as high as 50 with some books and entering this code reveals a nice Over/Under angle that hitting 76-percent the past five seasons with 6 overs and 19 unders.

The Broncos are home for the first of two-straight and they have the Eagles on-deck. Philly will be playing on a long rest-week and HC Fox will probably want to have his team rested and ready to go. In the case of another blowout we could see some of Denver’s backup defenders get some work late in the game but against Oakland it shouldn’t make much of a difference. Look for Denver to utilize its strong stable of running backs as this game stays UNDER 50 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Tip Sheet

September 20, 2013


Packers (-2 ½, 48 ½) at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Cincinnati: 1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Packers bounced back from an opening week loss at San Francisco by blowing out Washington, 38-20 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Green Bay jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back to win their ninth consecutive game at Lambeau Field. The Bengals took down division rival Pittsburgh on Monday night, 20-10 to cash as 6 ½-point home 'chalk,' while improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the favorite role.

Previous meeting result: Cincinnati upset Green Bay at Lambeau Field, 31-24 in Week 2 in 2009, cashing outright as nine-point underdogs. The only active skill position player for either squad that is still with their respective team is Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 261 yards and a touchdown in the loss.

Betting notes: The Packers have struggled on the road off a home victory since December 2011, going 2-5 SU/ATS, including defeats as a favorite at Seattle, Indianapolis, and Minnesota last season. The Bengals are riding a nice hot streak against the number, posting an 8-2-1 ATS record since last November, including a 4-1 ATS mark Paul Brown Stadium.

Buccaneers at Patriots (-7, 44) - 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
New England: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS

Last week's results: The Bucs blew an opportunity to win in the final minute for the second straight week in a 16-14 home defeat to the Saints. Tampa Bay covered as three-point underdogs, but the Bucs missed a late field goal to go up by four points, while allowing New Orleans to march down the field to set up the game-winning kick. New England stormed out to a 10-0 advantage over the rival Jets, but the Patriots would score only three points the rest of the way in a 13-10 win as 11-point home favorites.

Previous meeting result: The Pats routed the Bucs in London back in 2009 with a 35-7 drubbing as 15 ½-point favorites. New England is making its first-ever regular season visit to Raymond James Stadium as the Pats last played in Tampa back in 1997, a 27-7 defeat.

Betting notes: The Patriots are 5-1 ATS the last six opportunities when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including two blowouts last season against the Dolphins and Rams in this situation. The Bucs are listed as a road 'dog for the first time this season, coming off a 5-2 ATS record in that role in 2012.

Browns at Vikings (-6 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Cleveland: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Minnesota: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS

Last week's results: Cleveland's offense failed to reach the end zone in a 14-6 defeat at Baltimore, as the Browns will be without quarterback Brandon Weeden (thumb) and running back Trent Richardson (trade to Colts) on Sunday. The Vikings were able to cash as six-point road underdogs at Chicago, but Minnesota was on the wrong side of a 31-30 loss to lose their second straight road divisional matchup.

Previous meeting result: Minnesota took care of Cleveland in the 2009 season opener, 34-20 as four-point road 'chalk.' Adrian Peterson ran all over the Browns defense for 180 yards and three touchdowns, including a 64-yard touchdown score. The Browns make their visit to Minneapolis since 2005, when the Vikings picked up a 24-12 triumph.

Betting notes: The Browns have compiled a 2-5 ATS record on the road when coming off an away contest since 2010, while scoring 17 points or less six times. Under Leslie Frazier, the Vikings have struggled in the role of a home favorite, posting a 2-6-1 ATS record, but both covers came in victories over 23 or more points.

Falcons at Dolphins (-2 ½, 44 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

Atlanta: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Miami: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

Last week's results: Atlanta took control from wire-to-wire in a 31-24 home victory over St. Louis as four-point favorites. The Falcons grabbed a 24-3 halftime lead and never looked back even though the Rams made the final score look closer than the game actually was. The Dolphins are off to their first 2-0 start since 2010 following road victories at Cleveland and Indianapolis, while holding off the Colts, 24-20 as short underdogs.

Previous meeting result: Miami visited the Georgia Dome to kick off the 2009 season, but left with a 19-7 loss, as the Dolphins turned the ball over four times. The Falcons won in their previous trip to South Florida, a 17-10 triumph in 2005 as two-point road favorites.

Betting notes: The Dolphins split four games as a home favorite last season, but Miami never laid points against any team that finished above .500. Since losing to the Steelers in the 2010 opener, the Falcons have won 10 of their past 11 contests against AFC opponents.

Colts at 49ers (-10, 46) - 4:25 PM EST

Indianapolis: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
San Francisco: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Colts lost for the first time in nine tries in a game decided by seven points or less in last Sunday's four-point home defeat to the Dolphins. The 49ers return home after getting slammed by the Seahawks, 29-3 as three-point road underdogs last Sunday night. The loss dropped San Francisco to 5-3 ATS in the role of an away 'dog under Jim Harbaugh.

Previous meeting result: When these teams hooked up in 2009, the 49ers cashed as 13-point road underdogs in a narrow 18-14 defeat to the mighty Colts. Indianapolis ripped apart San Francisco in its last visit to Candlestick Park in 2005, a 28-3 blowout as 16 ½-point favorites.

Betting notes: The Colts put together a putrid 2-5 ATS record last season as a road underdog, including blowout losses at New England, Chicago, and Baltimore. The Niners haven't lost consecutive games in Harbaugh's tenure, while going 6-2 ATS off a non-win (which includes the tie against the Rams last season).

Jaguars at Seahawks (-19, 41) - 4:25 PM EST

Jacksonville: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Seattle: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

Last week's results: Jacksonville continues to look like the worst team in the league following a 19-9 loss at Oakland, pushing the Jags' season total of points to 11. On the flip side, Seattle opened things up after leading San Francisco, 5-0 at the half to outscore the 49ers, 24-3 in the second half of Sunday night's blowout of the Niners. The Seahawks improved to 8-1 ATS the last nine games dating back to last November.

Previous meeting result: The last time the Jaguars visited the Pacific Northwest, Seattle blanked Jacksonville, 41-0 as one-point favorites in 2009. This is only the third visit for Jacksonville to Seattle in franchise history, while losing four of six previous meetings overall.

Betting notes: The Seahawks have dominated at CenturyLink Field since 2011 by posting a 13-4 ATS record, while laying the most points since 2005, when Seattle destroyed San Francisco, 41-3 as 16-point 'chalk.' The Jags covered all three games last season when receiving at least 13 points, including single-digit defeats at Houston and Green Bay.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 3

September 21, 2013

Week 2 Recap

For the second consecutive week, total players saw another 8-8 weekend. Even though the betting results were the same, the patterns were a tad different. The ‘over’ went 7-2 in the early afternoon games last week, opposed to an 8-1 mark to the ‘under’ in Week 1. Also, Week 2 saw the ‘under’ go 3-0 in all of the primetime matchups. In case you forget, Week 1 watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 in every game played under the lights.

After two weeks, 10 teams have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 and 10 have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 while the remaining 12 teams own 1-1 total records. When you delve into these numbers further, it’s safe to say that Denver, Green Bay and Philadelphia will be ‘over’ looks all season based on their offensive abilities. When you look at half of the ‘under’ clubs, you can point to quarterback issues with the Browns, Jaguars, Jets, Raiders and Buccaneers.

Another pair of ‘under’ teams are New Orleans and New England, which is surprising when you look at their performances in recent seasons. The Saints (19.5) and Patriots (18) are both near the bottom of the league in points per game. Right now, offensive execution appears to be the major issue for both squads. The Saints (6) and Patriots (5) have kicked a combined 11 field goals through two games compared to just five touchdowns. To put things in perspective, Denver has 14 scores in two games and 12 of them were touchdowns.

Line Moves

Last Saturday, we listed eight games that had moved off their opening numbers by at least 1 ½ points. If you followed the moves, you would’ve gone 6-2 (75%) in those games. This week, there are five moves and four of them are leaning to the ‘over.’

Tampa Bay at New England: Line opened 46 ½ and dropped to 43 ½
Green Bay at Cincinnati: Line opened 45 ½ and jumped to 49 ½
N.Y. Giants at Carolina: Line opened 45 ½ and jumped to 47 ½
Atlanta at Miami: Line opened 43 and jumped to 45
Chicago at Pittsburgh: Line opened 38 ½ and jumped to 40 ½

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in divisional games last weekend, which was the complete opposite results of a 4-2 mark to the ‘over’ in the opening week. Week 3 only features two divisional matchups on tap.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
The Jets and Bills have seen the total split in their last four matchups but the two ‘over’ tickets came when New York was playing at home. In those games, the Jets scored 48 and 28 points. This game will feature two rookie quarterbacks in Geno Smith and EJ Manuel. Smith hasn’t been accurate (53.4%) for the Jets this season and he’s already been intercepted four times. On the other hand, Manuel has been on point (68.2%) but his yards per attempt isn’t impressive at all. New York has seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 season and Buffalo should be 2-0 to the ‘under’ as well if it wasn’t for a late touchdown last Sunday against Carolina. Last season, we had six games that had rookie quarterbacks squaring off against one another. In those matchups when first-year signal callers went head-to-head, the ‘under’ went 4-2.

Oakland at Denver (See Below)

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ go 4-0 in the first four primetime games of the season, it’s been nothing but winning ‘under’ tickets at the betting counter. Including Thursday’s results between the Chiefs and Eagles, the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four night games and it’s fair to say that they were never in doubt. This weekend, something will have to give since both matchups feature one team that has seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 while the other has watched the ‘under’ produce a 2-0 mark.

Chicago at Pittsburgh: Oddsmakers made a mistake on this game, sending out a total of 38 ½ points, which was quickly pushed up two points. The Steelers offense hasn’t been sharp but it still has potential to move the football with Big Ben under center. Chicago has shown a nice balance offensively under new head coach Marc Trestman, averaging 27.5 PPG through two games. The Bears’ defense isn’t comparable to past seasons but still very opportunistic. Since this is a non-conference battles, bettors should be aware that Chicago is the only NFC team to beat an AFC team this season as it stopped Cincinnati 24-21 in Week 1. Last season, the Bears went 3-1 versus the AFC while averaging 34.8 PPG. Pittsburgh averaged 22.8 PPG against the NFC in 2012 en route to a 3-1 record.

Oakland at Denver: Last season, the Broncos beat the Raiders 37-6 at home and 26-13 on the road, both totals closed at 47. This week’s number is hovering around 49 points and based on the point-spread (Denver -15), oddsmakers are expecting a 32-17 win for Denver. It’s hard to see the Broncos putting up less than 32 based on this year’s offensive results (49, 41) and last year’s numbers. However, Oakland’s defense (15 PPG) has opened some eyes around the league but the competition (Colts, Jaguars) isn’t even close to the Broncos.

Fearless Predictions

One week in the books and we’re in the red for 20 cents after splitting our Best Bets and losing our Team Total wager. Fortunately, the Three-Team Teaser didn’t even need the points and easily cashed. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-Pittsburgh 40 ½

Best Under: Indianapolis-San Francisco 46 ½

Best Team Total: Under Indianapolis 19

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Under 50 Cleveland-Minnesota
Under 55 ½ Indianapolis-San Francisco
Over 31 ½ Chicago-Pittsburgh

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting Week 3 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 3’s NFL action.

Crazy things tend to happen just before the bye weeks begin. With that in mind, we should have known Week 3 was going to give us all we could handle. All we have to deal with is one of the biggest pointspreads in NFL history and a trade involving a No. 3 overall pick in the peak of his career.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 19.

For Richer or Poorer

The Cleveland Browns stunned the NFL world by trading running back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts Wednesday evening. The move shifted the Browns from +5.5 at Minnesota before the trade to +7 as of Thursday morning, but we’re seeing 89 percent of the action coming in on the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Colts dropped from +10.5 at San Francisco to +10, even though Richardson’s playing status for Week 3 is up in the air. Super Bowl futures also felt the impact of the trade with Indianapolis moving from +5000 to win it all to +4500 while Cleveland dropped from +17500 to +26100.

Playing Favorites

After the Seahawks manhandled the 49ers last week, you knew Seattle was going to be a massive favorite when hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. But a 20-point favorite? Actually, the Seahawks opened at -17.5 and were quickly bet up to -20 just a little more than five hours later. Since then, the market has come back a bit on the Jaguars to put the line at Seattle -19, but there is still a ton of support for the Seahawks. At this point Seattle bets are outnumbering Jacksonville wagers by a 2:1 clip.

Bust a Move

The Jacksonville-Seattle game isn’t the only matchup with a big line on the board. Denver opened as a 14.5-point favorite at home to Oakland and we’ve seen that line bump up to -15 already as bettors pile on the 2-0 Broncos. That total has moved from 49.5 points to 50, to become the second 50-point total of the week.

Meanwhile, the over/under for Thursday’s Andy Reid homecoming in Philadelphia is also above 50 and has moved from 50.5 to 51 in the last 24 hours.
Another line to keep a close eye on is Detroit at Washington. The Redskins opened as 2-point favorites but have bounced around to -2.5, down to -1, back up to -2.5 and back to -2, where the line currently sits. If it stays there is anyone’s guess at this point.

Who’s hot, who’s not

The Giants head into Carolina as 1-point underdogs and 91 percent of Sports Interaction’s betting public is all over the G-Men.

Bettors can’t get enough of the Atlanta Falcons either, who are set as 2-point underdogs at Miami. The Falcons, without the services of Steven Jackson (thigh) are seeing 90 percent of the action.

Houston is another popular bet. The Texans (-2.5) are seeing 78 percent of the action as they head into Baltimore.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1, 45.5)

Giants’ deep threats vs. Panthers’ thinning secondary

When they’re not busy coughing the ball up, the Giants have been able to explode for big gains. New York leads the league in passing (390.5 ypg) but more importantly averages 14.2 yards per completion, and has struck for 12 plays of 20-plus yards through the first two games.

Carolina has given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt – fourth highest in the NFL – against Seattle and Buffalo – two conservative passing attacks. On top of facing the Giants’ deep threats, the Panthers secondary is a mess, with five DBs on injury watch his week and two S going on IR.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)

Cardinals’ red-zone defense vs. Saints’ red-zone offense

The Saints offense has stalled to start the schedule, averaging just 19.5 points through the first two games. The problem is the red-zone attack, which has punched the ball into the end zone only once and has a TD percentage of just 14.29 percent inside the 20-yard line.

Arizona’s underrated defense was among the best at shutting the door in the red zone last year, holding foes to a 44.44 TD percentage inside the 20-yard line (third lowest in the league). This year, the Cardinals have allowed three touchdowns on five trips inside their own red zone but have been able to lockdown the run. Arizona has budged for only 58 total yards on the ground – third fewest in the league.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)

Falcons' fourth-quarter falloff vs. Dolphins' fourth-quarter frenzy

The Dolphins’ surprise 2-0 start has a lot to do with their ability to close out games in the final frame. Miami hasn’t allowed a single point in the fourth quarter in its first two outings and is limiting opponents to an average of three second-half points heading into Week 3.

The Falcons offense is fading down the stretch. After building quick leads in the first two quarters – 17.0 points per first half (fourth in NFL) – Atlanta has run out of gas in the closing 30 minutes. The Falcons average seven points in the second half – just 3.5 in the fourth quarter – through the first two games of the year.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 40.5)

Jaguars’ coach Gus Bradley vs. Seahawks’ No. 1 defense

Just like how Dr. Frankenstein had to face his monstrous creation, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley takes on a Seahawks stop unit he helped mold. The former Seattle defensive coordinator was with the franchise for four years and knows the ins and outs when it comes to his pupil Dan Quinn, Seattle’s new DC.

The Seahawks stop unit has picked up the slack for Seattle’s lack of scoring pop. Seattle’s offense shot itself in the foot with 10 penalties in Week 2 and is picking up just 18.5 first downs per game (20th in the NFL), sandwiching them between two teams with rookie QBs at the helm – Buffalo and New York. If the defense is exposed by its original architect, the Seahawks offense may not have enough fire power to cover this massive spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's Games

Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)—Second straight trip east for Bolts, who split pair of 3-point decisions as underdogs in first two games, despite allowing 30+ points in both games- they’ve won nine in a row vs Tennessee, waxing Titans 38-10 in Week 2 LY at Qualcomm (TY 418-212). Chargers are 17-29 on 3rd down thru two games, with WR Royal scoring five TDs already. After facing prolific passers Schaub/Vick, Locker is going to be change of pace; in splitting pair of road games (lost in OT at Houston last week), Titans gained only 229-248 yards, but have seven sacks (+2 and four takeaways (+4), while running ball for 115.5 yards/game, with no giveaways. Tennessee is 4-5 as home favorite under Munchak, 3-5 as a favorite in home openers. Bolts are now 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road dog. Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6-1 vs spread thru first two weeks of season.

Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (1-1)—Cleveland QB Weeden (thumb) likely out here; former Patriot backup Hoyer gets the start; in their first two games, Browns averaged less than five yards/pass attempt and ran ball for total of just 112 yards on 33 carries- they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road dog after shutting Ravens out in first half last week, but losing 14-6 (+6.5) in Maryland. Minnesota is 2-3 in last five home openers, 0-5 vs spread (0-4 as favorite); they scored TD on both defense/special teams last week, still lost 31-30 after kicking FG on all three trips to red zone. Vikes turned ball over seven times (-1) in two games, had 15-yard deficit in field position both games- they’re 3-5-1 as home favorites under Frazier, are 11-20-1 vs spread vs AFC teams the last eight years. Browns were outscored 31-3 in second half of their first two games.

Buccaneers (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)—Curious to see Pats’ passing game 10 days after dismal showing vs Jets; their two wins are by total of five points, with NE averaging just 5.1/4.5 yards/pass attempt. Edelman caught 13 passes last week for 78 yards, not exactly Jerry Rice, but Brady was 6-21 targeting anyone else. Bucs’ two losses are by total of three points, both in last 0:10- they’ve had 23 penalties for 220 yards in two games- S Goldson's suspension for this game was lifted. Since ’09, Tampa is 18-11-1 as road dogs, 5-2 under Schiano. NE is 5-2 in this series, winning last two meetings 28-0/35-7; Bucs lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’05- they completed less than half their passes in both games so far this year, as rumors circulate that QB Freeman will walk after this year. These teams practiced against each other summer for few days before their (meaningless) exhibition game, so there is some familiarity.

Texans (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)—Houston is first team since AFL merger in 1970 to win first two games, both on last play of game; they’ve outrushed first two opponents by 46 yards/game, even though they were outscored 31-14 in first halves. Texans crushed Baltimore 43-13 at home LY, ending six-game series skid vs Ravens; they’re 0-3 here, with last loss 20-13 in ’11 playoffs. Over last 10+ years, Ravens are 6-8 as home dogs, 2-3 under Harbaugh- they’re 20-15 under him in games where spread was 3 or less points. Since 2010, Texans are 8-5-1 as road favorites- they’re 8-0-1 vs spread in last nine games where spread was 3 or less. Star WR AJohnson (concussion) is doubtful here. Ravens averaged just 2.8 yards/rush in first two games; they won last week despite getting shut out in first half. Consistent Houston offense gained 449-452 yards in first two games, just wished they’d put pedal to metal in first half, too.

Rams (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)—Home team lost six of last nine series games, but Rams lost 35-7/34-7 in last two visits here; St Louis was awful in first half in Atlanta last week (trailed 24-3) then fought back and made game of it- they’re 7-2 as road dog under Fisher, 5-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Cowboys are 4-17 as home favorites under Garrett, 3-10 vs non-divisional foes, 10-13-1 coming off loss. First two Dallas games were decided by total of six points; Cowboys ran ball 39 times for only 124 yards (3.2/carry) in first two games despite OL coach Callahan calling plays. Improvement in Ram offense is obvious, with five TD drives of 80+ yards already, but none of less than 80, so defense/special teams have to step up and make life easier. This will be as close to a home game as Bradford gets in NFL; he averaged 7.9/6.4 per pass attempt in first two games, without getting sacked. From 1973-80, these teams met six times in eight years, just in playoff games.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)—New Orleans escaped by skin of teeth two weeks in row but was much better on offense in home opener, averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt, compared to 5.9 in rain-delayed road opener last week. Payton covered last nine games as Superdome favorite (they were 3-3 LY, when Payton was suspended); since ’08, Saints are 16-5-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites. Arizona fought back from down 21-10 to win home opener last week, throwing for 261 yards, even with Fitzgerald hampered by leg injury; they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 games as road underdog, but over last 10+ years, Arizona is just 23-36-1 vs spread coming off a win. Teams haven’t met since 2010; Cardinals lost five of last six visits here, last of which was 45-14 loss in ’09 playoff game, Kurt Warner’s last NFL game, and Redbirds’ last playoff game. Cardinals’ last win on Bourbon Street was in 1996.

Lions (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Desperate times for Washington team that was outscored 50-7 in first half of first two games; they’ve already allowed nine offensive TDs, four on drives of less than 50 yards. Debate rages whether RGIII is hurt or if his knee brace is hindering him; they’ve outscored foes 40-21 in second half, but cow was out of barn in both games by then. Defense allowed 402 rushing yards in first two games; since ’06, Washington is 8-18-1 as a home favorite. Detroit is 5-10-1 in game following its last 16 losses, 10-13-2 as road dog under Schwartz, First outdoor game for Lion squad that blew 21-10 lead on road last week, wasting a defensive TD; Detroit has twice as many penalty yards (189-92) as its opponents; Home teams won 11 of last 13 series games; Lions lost their last 20 visits here; last time this franchise beat Redskins on road was in 1935, when Skins were based in Boston. Oy.

Packers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)—Short week for Cincy after beating rival Steelers Monday, just their second home win in last dozen tries vs Pitt; in comes Green Bay with much more potent offense than Steelers- Rodgers passed for 480 yards last week, had 322 at halftime- they averaged 8.3/9.6 yards/pass attempt in first two games. Bengals lead seldom-played series 6-5; Pack lost three of four visits here, with only win in 1998. Since ’10, Bengals are just 12-13 SU at home; they’re 15-8-1 in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points, 13-6-2 vs NFC teams and 16-6 in game following their last 22 wins. Under McCarthy, Green Bay is 22-14-2 in games where spread was 3 or less, 17-7 in last 24 games vs AFC and 15-10 in game following their last 25 wins. This season, AFC teams are off to 5-1 start vs NFC. Packers ended 2.5-year streak last week of not having a 100-yard runner in any game when Starks broke century mark vs Redskins.

Giants (0-2) @ Panthers (0-2)— Two desperate teams battle for first win here. Giants allowed 77 points in first two games, turning ball over ten times (-8); its tough for an immobile QB when his OL isn’t very good, and injuries have damaged Giants’ OL. Big Blue has already allowed two defensive scores and a TD on a punt return. Since 2006, Giants are 14-7-1 vs spread as road underdog of 3 or less points. Panthers are 8-17 SU in last 25 home games, 4-4 as home favorite under Rivera; Carolina lost its first two games by total of six points, allowing Buffalo’s rookie QB to drive 80 yards in last minute last week to win game on final play. Teams split eight series games, with five of last six meetings decided by 13+ points with average total in last four, 51.0; Giants (+2.5) waxed Carolina here 36-7 in Week 3 LY, thanks to a +5 turnover margin. Thru two games this year, Giants have run ball only 33 times for 73 yards (2.2/carry) and dropped back to pass 95 times.

Falcons (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0)—Miami starts season with pair of road wins; they didn’t have penalty in win at Indy last week. Fish outscored first two opponents 24-6 in second half after not leading either game at halftime. Dolphins are just 2-8 in last ten home openers, failing to cover last three tries as a favorite in HO’s. Under Smith, Falcons are 23-10-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 6-3 under Philbin in those type games. Atlanta dropped back to pass 86 times in first two games, with only 30 runs and now new RB Jackson is hurt already- they’ve won three of last four games with Miami, after losing six of first seven; they’re 2-5 in south Florida, with last visit in ’05. Average total in last three meetings was 29.3. Falcons are 21-11 vs spread in last 32 games on grass. Over is 8-3 in Miami’s last 11 home openers, with last four going over the total. Falcons are a better team than either club Miami beat so far, but enthusiasm is high for the Dolphins.

Colts (1-1) @ 49ers (1-1)—Coach Harbaugh faces team he once led to playoffs as its QB; 49ers got drilled 29-3 in Seattle last week- since ’09, Niners are 17-5-3 in game following a loss, 5-1-1 under Harbaugh. 23 penalties for 206 yards in two games is red flag for SF, Luck returns to Bay Area with Indy squad that lost last three road openers, by 10-27-20 points; Indy is 1-10-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a dog in a road opener. Colts are 13-25 on 3rd down in two games, with only six total penalties; they’ve won last two games in this seldom-played series that was divisional rivalry in late 60’s. Indy lost four of last five visits here, winning 28-3 in ’05. Indy is 16-11-1 vs spread in last 28 games on grass, 11-6 in last 17 games as non-divisional road dog, 4-2 in last six as double digit dog. 49ers played Pack/Seattle to open season, so this is actually step down in class for them; SF is 9-1 as non-divisional HF under Harbaugh, 4-3 as double digit favorite.
Reply With Quote

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's Games

Jaguars (0-2) @ Seahawks (2-0)—Major letdown spot for 20-point home favorites, after blasting rival 49ers last week, and with road trip to Houston on tap; Jax head coach Bradley was Seattle’s DC last few years and being non-conference game, there would be no reason for Carroll to bury Jags late, if it comes to that. But Jax is off to awful start, scoring one TD on first 24 drives, with 14 3/outs, averaging 2.3/5.0 yards/pass attempt; they’ve been outrushed 341-105, outscored 31-5 in first half, outsacked 11-4. Seattle’s defense allowed one TD on first 18 drives, forcing six 3/outs; Seahawks are 8-3 as home favorites under Carroll; over last decade, they’re 7-3-1 as double digit favorites. Jaguars have been double digit dog in six of last 29 games, going 5-1 vs spread. Seattle won four of six games in this seldom-played series; Jags lost both visits here, 24-15/41-0. Seattle has seven takeaways in first two games (+5); their defense is very good. Still hard to lay 20 in an NFL game.

Bills (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Two rookie QBs in series where Ryan is 6-2 vs Buffalo, 5-12 vs rest of division; five of last six series games were decided by 16+ points; Bills lost last three visits here by 31-4-20 points, with average total in those games 57.7; this is first road start for Manuel, who led game-winning, 80-yard drive in last minute vs Carolina last week. Bills ran ball well in first two games, averaging 142.5 ypg; Jets held Bucs/Pats to average of 59.5 ypg, so good matchup there. Gang Green is 16-10 vs spread under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points but since ’06, they’re just 6-14-1 in divisional home games. Bills had 8 and 15-yard deficits in field position in first two games. Jets split pair of games decided by total of four points; Bills split their pair, with games decided by total of three points. Bills lost seven of last nine road openers SU, but covered seven of last eleven. Last two years, Buffalo was 4-9-1 as a road underdog.

Bears (2-0) @ Steelers (0-2)— Not sure what to make of Chicago after winning first two home games by total of four points; they won last week 31-30, despite giving up TDs on both offense/special teams. Since ’08, Bears are 9-4-1 as road favorites; they’re 6-4-3 vs AFC teams; 1-5-1 in last seven games where spread was three or less points. Short week for Pitt after Monday night loss in Cincy; in first two games they’ve run ball 31 times for only 76 yards, converted 7 of 25 on third down, been outsacked 7-1. Over last decade, Steelers are 5-0 vs spread as home dogs, covering one game as home dog in each of last three years, but this is also first Tomlin team to be two games under .500 at any point of season. Pitt won three of last four series meetings, with average total in last three, 30.0; Bears are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with only win in ’89. Chicago is 2-4 in last six road openers, with eight of their last nine AOs staying under the total.


Monday's Game

Raiders (1-1) @ Broncos (2-0)—Over last seven years, Oakland is amazing 18-3 vs spread as a divisional road underdog, but they’ve lost last three games vs Denver by 14-31-13 points. Broncos appear to be offensive juggernaut, scoring 90 points in first two games (11 TDs, two FGA on first 26 drives), with four drives of 40 or less yards plus a PR for TD. Raiders won four of last five visits here, with wins before Manning came to town (they lost 37-6 here LY). Raiders split pair of close games this year without getting a takeaway; they’ve run ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, with Pryor’s mobility a key factor. Bronco defense allowed only 58-23 rushing yards in first two games, and they’re still missing some key pieces- Denver is 3-1 as double digit favorite under Fox, after being 2-12-1 in that role in eight years before he became HC. From 2006-11, Broncos were 5-24-2 as Mile High favorites; they’re 7-1 in that role since #18 became their QB.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, September 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Packers at Bengals: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals feel that Monday night's win over rival Pittsburgh signaled a changing of the guard in the AFC North. No longer the Steelers' patsies, Cincinnati now battles one of the NFC's powers when it hosts Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals may still have concerns at quarterback but their backfield tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard certainly delivered on Monday.

It's no secret what Green Bay's top-ranked offense brings to battle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was masterful picking apart the Washington secondary a week ago. Rodgers, who has won eight of his past 10 starts against AFC teams, racked up a career-high 480 yards through the air despite hardly throwing a pass in the fourth quarter and he could find plenty of room against an injury-riddled Cincinnati defense.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -3. O/U: 48.5.

LINE: The Bengals opened +1 and are currently +2.5. The total opened at 48 and is now 49.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-1): Green Bay raced out to a 31-0 lead and cruised to the lopsided win over Washington. While Rodgers' performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. Starks became the first back in the past 45 Packer games to go over the century mark and he'll likely get the call again as second-round pick Lacy has yet to be medically cleared.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-1): Bernard looked explosive in catching one scoring pass and running for another TD in the Bengals' 20-10 win over the Steelers. Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 games following a ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.

2. Green Bay ranks 30th in passing defense, yielding an average of 359 yards.

3. The Bengals were just 4-4 at home last season.