The Bum's NBA Regular and Playoff Season's Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Milwaukee at Miami
The Heat look to open up the playoff series and build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games against teams with a losing SU record. Miami is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-13). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, APRIL 21

Game 709-710: Atlanta at Indiana (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.929; Indiana 123.227
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: LA Lakers at San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.531; San Antonio 119.550
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 192
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+8 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Milwaukee at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 111.595; Miami 127.827
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 16; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 13; 199
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-13); Over

Game 715-716: Houston at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.932; Oklahoma City 127.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+10); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 21

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ATLANTA (44 - 38) at INDIANA (49 - 32) - 4/21/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.
INDIANA is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (45 - 37) at SAN ANTONIO (58 - 24) - 4/21/2013, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 89-68 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 73-54 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 136-103 ATS (+22.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (38 - 44) at MIAMI (66 - 16) - 4/21/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 36-45 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 46-36 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (45 - 37) at OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 22) - 4/21/2013, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 80-49 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, April 21

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Atlanta at Indiana, 1:00 ET TNT
Atlanta: 5-14 ATS playing their second game in five days
Indiana: 13-2 Under off 4+ ATS losses

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
LA Lakers at San Antonio, 3:30 ET ABC
LA Lakers: 5-15 ATS as a road underdog
San Antonio: 10-1 ATS off a home loss

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Milwaukee at Miami, 7:00 ET TNT
Milwaukee: 7-15 ATS revenging a loss by 10+ points
Miami: 27-13 ATS off a home game

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Houston at Oklahoma City, 9:30 ET TNT
Houston: 0-8 ATS away off BB SU losses
Oklahoma City: 15-6 ATS off a SU loss



NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 21

Indiana has best defensive team in NBA (best FG% vs both 2-point and 3-point shots), but Atlanta has quickness advantage inside and will try to exploit it. Home side won all four Atlanta-Indiana games this season; Hawks lost both visits here, by 11-6 points, with both games going over. Atlanta is 2-5 in its last seven games overall, with four of last five going over total. Indiana lost five of its last six games, with four of last five going over as well- they played faster pace in games vs Atlanta than vs any other team in league. Hawks have lot of guys whose contracts are expiring, will they play for themselves or to advance?

Lot of older, injured stars in Laker-Spur series; Bryant is out, Nash is a ???, Parker/Ginobili are banged up and Diaw is out, which why Tracy McGrady was brought back from China. LA won last five games and 8 of last 9 to squeak into playoffs; they're 20-8 in last 28 games, 1-2 vs Spurs, with three games decided by total of 10 points-- all three stayed under total. Spurs lost seven of last ten games to fall out of #1 seed, but they were pointing to playoffs. Spurs shot under 39% in two of three games vs Lakers; they made 12-25 from arc in Lakers' only visit to this site. LA was +23 in FT's tried in two games played at Staples. Lakers' best two players with Bryant out are 7-footers; Spurs want to run.

Milwaukee lost 15 of last 21 games, finished 38-44, has as much chance of beating Miami best-of-7 as I do of dating Pamela Anderson. Bucks did upset Heat 104-85 at home Dec 29, forcing 20 turnovers (+15), but lost other three meetings by 7-13-11 points, with last three games staying under total. Only once in four meetings did Miami lead by more than a hoop at the half. Bucks have to try and make Heat shoot jumpers; Heat took 33-24-22-10 FTs in four meetings, going 8-35 from arc in last game April 9, so Milwaukee has to pack in defense, keep game slow as they can, and hope Miami is extremely overconfident. Good luck with that.

Houston star Harden came off bench for Thunder, but played starters' minutes; Rockets got whacked by 22-30 points by OC before holidays, but beat Thunder 122-119 in last meeting Feb 20, making 15-33 on arc (made 16-51 in two losses)- Harden had 46 that game. Houston turns it over more than any team in league partially because they run more than most teams; they've got to minimize OC's easy hoops, since its defense in halfcourt isn't exactly great. Thunder scored 120-124-119 in the three games with Houston, which is better-than-average #8 seed, but playing wrong style to upset this defensively-stout favorite.




NBA

Sunday, April 21

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANA
Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Indiana is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

3:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. SAN ANTONIO
LA Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 16 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 18 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, April 21

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NBA playoffs: Sunday's East betting preview
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Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 185.5)

The Indiana Pacers have believed they are capable of knocking off the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference since taking them to the brink last spring. If they hope to get another shot at the defending champs, the third-seeded Pacers will have to figure out a way around the Atlanta Hawks first. The sixth-seeded Hawks visit Indiana on Sunday for Game 1 and have the type of size and strength that could frustrate the Pacers.

The teams split four meetings in the regular season, with each holding home court. Atlanta’s Josh Smith and Al Horford will battle with Indiana’s David West and Roy Hibbert on the inside and try to draw them away from the basket. The Pacers are one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the league but began to show some cracks in April while dropping five of six to close out the regular season. Indiana allowed 102.1 points in its final eight games - nearly 12 points above its season average.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HAWKS (44-38): Atlanta did not exactly finish with a flurry, either, losing five of their final seven to erase any chance of homecourt advantage in the first round. The Hawks went 19-22 on the road and dropped four of their final six away from Atlanta during the regular season, including a 100-94 setback at Indiana on March 25. Smith scored 20 points but the Hawks were outrebounded 49-38 in the loss. Smith played sparingly over the final weeks while fighting off a knee injury but looked strong when he was in the lineup and shot 55 percent from the field in the final month. Atlanta is counting on the point guard combo of Jeff Teague and Devin Harris to give it an advantage on the perimeter. Teague averaged nine assists in April and cut his turnovers to 2.3 - the lowest of any month.

ABOUT THE PACERS (49-32): Indiana looked like a lock for the No. 2 seed in the East before its slump coincided with the New York Knicks’ surge. Either way, the Pacers will have to make it to the Eastern Conference finals if the want to get another crack at the Heat. Indiana led the NBA in rebounding average behind Hibbert and West and was second in points allowed despite the letup on that end late in the season. The biggest difference between this spring and last is the increase role of shooting guard Lance Stephenson, who has given the team a tenacious perimeter defender and a solid shooting option on the wing. Stephenson missed the last meeting with the Hawks but collected 14 points and six rebounds in a 114-103 win over them on Feb. 5.

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference foes.
* Pacers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.
* Over is 7-1 in Hawks’ last eight road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Smith has averages 15.6 points on 42 percent shooting in 46 career playoff games.

2. Atlanta lost to Boston in the first round last season, ending a streak of three straight first-round series wins.

3. The teams met in the playoffs three straight seasons from 1993-94 through 1995-96. They have not faced off in the postseason since.



Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-13, 199)

The Miami Heat have spent the last two weeks resting up for the playoffs, sometimes sitting all five starters at the same time and still winning games. The eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, who visit the top-seeded Heat in the opener of a first-round playoff series on Sunday, have spent the last two weeks backing into the postseason. The Bucks are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record and dropped seven of nine down the stretch.

Most of Miami’s injuries were of the nagging or non-existent variety down the stretch with the exception of Dwyane Wade, who was battling a knee issue. Wade returned over the final two games and looked sharp with 21 points and 10 assists on Wednesday. The Heat are the favorites to repeat as champion and have done little to make anyone doubt that prognostication. Miami finished the season with wins in 37 of its final 39 games and ranks in the top five in both points scored and points allowed. Milwaukee will try to pick at the Heat’s lone weakness on the glass while Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings attempt to wear them out on the perimeter.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)

ABOUT THE BUCKS (38-44): Milwaukee was two games above .500 after beating the Portland Trail Blazers on March 19 and was threatening to move up out of the No. 8 spot. But the Bucks went 4-12 over their final 16 games and struggled on the defensive end while getting inconsistent production from Jennings and Ellis on the perimeter. Jennings went 1-for-11 from the field in a home loss to Denver in the next-to-last game of the season but had one of his best games with 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting in a 94-83 loss at Miami on April 9. That marked the only time in Milwaukee’s final 22 games that he shot better than 50 percent from the floor. Where the Bucks excel is on the glass. Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson will try to keep LeBron James off the boards and out of transition.

ABOUT THE HEAT (66-16): Miami has the best player in the game in James and put together the second-longest winning streak in NBA history with 27 straight that included 107-94 triumph at Milwaukee on March 15. Anything less than back-to-back titles will be a disappointment for the Heat. Miami’s biggest worry on Sunday will be how the team comes together after so many of the regulars took multiple games off and did not get a chance to play together down the stretch. The Heat should be able to shake off that rust by halftime in their own building, where they posted an Eastern Conference-best 37-4 record. James just finished up a regular season in which he shot 56.5 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from beyond the arc. He went 11-for-16 from the field in the April 9 win over the Bucks and has averaged 29.4 points on 50.1 percent shooting against Milwaukee in his career.

TRENDS:

* Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Heat’s last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bucks’ last four Sunday games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Sanders missed the final four games of the regular season with a back injury and is questionable for Sunday.

2. The Heat are bidding to become the 10th team (out of 13) to win the title after posting at least 66 wins in the regular season.

3. Henson averaged 15 points and 15 rebounds in the final five games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, April 21

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NBA playoffs: Sunday's West betting preview
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Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 189)

What would have been considered a marquee matchup entering the season is shaping up as a battle of attrition when the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs clash with the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs. The Lakers have lost superstar Kobe Bryant to a torn Achilles’ tendon and are unsure about the availability of point guard Steve Nash entering Sunday's Game 1 of the best-of-seven series at San Antonio. Although Nash has stated that he wants to play.

The Spurs have their own major health concerns, primarily revolving around point guard Tony Parker, who had elevated himself into the MVP discussion until suffering an ankle injury in early March. San Antonio also has questions surrounding veteran swingman Manu Ginobili, who missed nine games with a hamstring injury before returning to play limited minutes in the regular-season finale. The Spurs limp into the postseason having lost three straight and eight of 13 while Los Angeles closed the season with five straight victories and eight of nine.

TV: 3:30 ET, ABC

ABOUT THE LAKERS (45-37): Forward Pau Gasol, who was benched at the end of January, carried Los Angeles to its postseason-clinching win on the final day by recording a triple-double in an overtime victory over Houston. Without Bryant, the Lakers will be reliant on the inside tandem of Gasol and center Dwight Howard, who had 26 points and 17 rebounds in a narrow victory over San Antonio last Sunday. Nash missed the last eight games with hamstring and hip soreness, but he reported improvement after recently receiving two epidural shots in his lower back. Backup point guard Steve Blake has filled an offensive void since Bryant went down, scoring 47 points in the last two.

ABOUT THE SPURS (58-24): Parker was brilliant in leading San Antonio to 16 wins in 17 games in January and February, scoring 30 points six times in a nine-game span. He played in only five games in April and one was a four-point, 1-for-10 effort against the Lakers. Tim Duncan continues to defy the aging process, finishing with 11 double-doubles in his last 15 games. Kawhi Leonard (11.9 points), Ginobili (11.8), Danny Green (10.5) and Tiago Splitter (10.3) all average in double figures, but Duncan knows who provides the biggest impact. “Manu changes the game for us. He’s done it for years," Duncan said. "To have him back out there and to have another X-factor is huge for us.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in Lakers’ last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Spurs’ last five Sunday games.
* Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The teams are meeting for the 12th time in the postseason, with Los Angeles leading 8-3.

2. Howard has averaged 19 points and 13.2 rebounds lifetime against the Spurs, who won two of three meetings this season by a total of five points.

3. San Antonio is 17-9 against Los Angeles when Parker scores at least 20 points.



Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-10, 213.5)

James Harden was a key cog on the Oklahoma City squad that reached the NBA Finals last season. Now the Houston Rockets’ star would like to end the Thunder’s season in the opening round. Houston visits Oklahoma City in Sunday’s series opener and the Rockets are in the playoffs for the first time in four years, primarily because Harden emerged as the NBA’s fifth-leading scorer. Oklahoma City traded Harden when it couldn’t reach contractual terms with him.

The Thunder won two of the three regular-season meetings but Harden exploded for a career-high 46 points in Houston’s 122-119 victory on Feb. 20. The eighth-seeded Rockets lack the postseason experience that the Thunder possess. “Guys have never been in this situation, they’ve never been in the playoffs,” Harden said. “Blessed and fortunate to have been there a few times and whatever advice I can give, I just let it out.” Oklahoma City earned the top seed in the Western Conference despite the Harden deal that brought backup guard Kevin Martin to town. “We felt we moved on pretty quick, and it’s shown through what we’ve been able to accomplish this year with our record,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (45-37): Harden averaged 25.9 points as a lead option and will be expected to carry the flow. Yet Houston does have a few other solid options in forward Chandler Parsons, center Omer Asik, point guard Jeremy Lin and forward Carlos Delfino. Asik averaged 10.1 points and 11.7 rebounds and his performance will be crucial for Houston to give Oklahoma City a stern test. “You’re talking about a team that went to the finals last year in Oklahoma City,” Rockets coach Kevin McHale told reporters. “That place is going to electric Sunday night. It’s going to be a big, big high-energy crowd. They’re going to be excited. Our guys have to be excited to do it.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER (60-22): There are expectations of Oklahoma City returning to the Finals but the Thunder know the road will be tough. “Most people say a 1-8 seed (matchup) is supposed to be easy, or a 2-7 seed,” forward Kevin Durant said. “We’ve never had an easy series. Never. Last year was so tough against Dallas, it took all we had for us to beat those guys. This year, Houston. I think they’re playing better than an eighth seed and play so well. So we’ve got our work cut out for us.” Durant averaged 26.3 points against Houston this season while point guard Russell Westbrook averaged 23.3 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds. Forward Serge Ibaka also excelled, shooting 64.5 percent from the field while averaging 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and four blocks.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Thunder’s last seven home games.
* Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Oklahoma City’s two victories over the Rockets were by scores of 120-98 and 124-94.

2. Asik recorded double-digit rebounding outings in eight of the last 10 games.

3. Martin averaged 17 points in the three outings against Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/20/13 3-*4-*1 42.86% -*700 Detail

Sunday, April 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Indiana -6.5 500 POD # 3

Indiana - Under 185.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 3:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers +8.5 500 POD # 1

San Antonio - Under 190.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Milwaukee +13 500 POD # 4

Miami - Over 199.5 500

Houston - 9:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -10 500 POD # 2

Oklahoma City - Over 213 500

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Public pads faves, sharps haven't shown up

Early money is coming in on the NBA home favorites Monday after host teams went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS this past weekend.

Monday’s NBA playoff slate features just two games, Chicago at Brooklyn and Memphis at Los Angeles, and both the Nets and Clippers have been bet up off the original spread. Brooklyn opened as low as a 4-point favorite versus Chicago and is now as high as -5. Los Angeles has climbed from -5 to -6 in Game 2 against Memphis.

“It’s been kids on the favorites,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers, alluding to a lack of sharp money. “And with all eight home faves winning outright this weekend, we expect more moneyline favorite money, straight and parlays, to continue.”

The Nets turned heads with a dominant performance against the Bulls in Game 1 Saturday, holding Chicago to only 89 points, including just 35 at the half. According to John Avello, director of race and sportsbook at the Wynn Las Vegas, the money is coming in on Brooklyn, which is a change of pace from Game 1.

“There’s a little bit of Brooklyn money now but we had a little bit of Chicago money before the series started,” Avello told Covers. “But after that Game 1 showing, the believers aren’t believing anymore. I don’t think we’ll see that sort of showing tonight. I think (the Bulls) come with a better effort.”

As for the total for Chicago-Brooklyn, the number has stayed relatively steady after opening at 183 points. Some markets have tacked on an extra half-point after the teams topped the 181.5-point total in Game 1.

In the Western Conference, Los Angeles is also coming off a one-sided win, defeating Memphis 112-91. That final score is a bit of a shocker for some NBA fans, who expected this No. 4-versus-No. 5 series to be the most competitive of the first round. Much like the Brooklyn-Chicago game, sharp money hasn't shown its face yet for this 10:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

“I didn’t think the first game was indicative of how this series will go,” says Avello. “I expect Memphis to be around in this game and for it to be a closer contest. It could close at -6 or it could close at -5. I could see some plays on the underdog here. I think the underdog is live.”

The total for Game 2 is also on the move, dropping from 181.5 to as low as 179.5 as of Monday afternoon. However, some shops are hovering around the opening number with money coming in on the over. The teams combined for 203 points and blew the 178.5-point number out of the water in Game 1. According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, 92 percent of their total wagers have been on the over.

“I could see us moving the total on this game a point and a half if we do not see any money come in on the under leading up to game time,” Stewart told Covers.
Reply With Quote

[StarDust Bum]

Home teams hold court in opening weekend of NBA playoffs

Home was where the heart – and the money – was in the opening weekend of the NBA Playoffs.

All eight home teams – New York, Denver, Brooklyn, L.A. Clippers, Indiana, San Antonio, Miami and Oklahoma City – won their Game 1 matchups. All eight host teams were betting favorites, posting a collective 6-2 mark against the spread. The Knicks and Nuggets were the lone home sides that failed to cover.

Saturday’s NBA Playoff action saw the home teams split, 2-2 ATS (against the spread), but all four home favorites came cashing in Sunday, with Indiana, San Antonio, Miami and OKC winning in decisive fashion.

There wasn’t much value taking the home teams SU (straight up) on the moneyline, with Brooklyn priced as the most affordable home chalk at -190. The Heat, who opened against Milwaukee, were set as -2,000 moneyline favorites. A $100 parlay on all eight home teams would have returned just $673.33.

Brooklyn (-4.5) and the L.A. Clippers (-5.5) are set as home favorites Monday. Oddsmakers have the Nets priced at -200 on the moneyline while the Clippers are set as -230 favorites to win straight up.

This weekend’s NBA Playoff action finished with a 3-4-1 over/under record with Western Conference games going 1-3 over/under.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 22

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CHICAGO (45 - 38) at BROOKLYN (50 - 33) - 4/22/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-6 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (56 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (57 - 26) - 4/22/2013, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
MEMPHIS is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 61-41 ATS (+15.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 147-200 ATS (-73.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 11-7 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 12-7 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
12 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at LA Clippers
The Grizzlies look to bounce back from their 112-91 loss in Game 1 and take advantage of a Clippers team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a victory or more than 10 points. Memphis is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 22

Game 717-718: Chicago at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.087; Brooklyn 124.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4 1/2; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-4 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Memphis at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.757; LA Clippers 126.972
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 185
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5 1/2); Over




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 22

Three of four Chicago-Brooklyn games were decided by 4 or less points during season, but Nets led Game 1 by 25 at half, shot 55% for game- they shot 52% from floor in only win vs Bulls during season, less than 45% in their losses. Other than Boozer, Chicago starters were 10-28 on nite from floor- Noah was only Chicago starter with plus/minus of better than -16, and he only played 13 minutes (-4). Bulls don't have any big guy to contain Lopez (21 points) by himself, so they have to double in post, which creates good scoring opportunities for other Nets. Chicago will be a better team here, but Game 1 was 89-62 after third quarter.

Clippers outrebounded Memphis 47-23 in Game 1; they've won four of five meetings vs Griz this year, winning two of three here, with wins by 9-21 points. Bledsoe came off LA bench and scored 15 points (7-7 from floor) in 18 minutes. Clippers shot 56% for game, ridiculously high for NBA tilt. Memphis averaged 16 offensive boards a game during season vs Clips, but they had only four in Game 1, when LA outscored them 37-22 in 4th quarter. Much like Chicago, would expect more spirited effort from Memphis here. Home favorites covered six of eight Game 1's league-wide, with under 4-3-1.




NBA

Monday, April 22

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Brooklyn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
Memphis is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 8 games when playing Memphis


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NBA

Monday, April 22

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Bulls at Nets: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-4.5, 183)

Nets lead series 1-0.

The Brooklyn Nets put on a tremendous display in the series opener and look to make it two consecutive victories in the best-of-7 series when they host the Chicago Bulls on Monday. Brooklyn raced to a 25-point halftime lead and cruised to a 106-89 victory on Saturday, making a strong statement with its high level of dominance. Chicago will need a much better effort both offensively and defensively to avoid returning home with a 0-2 deficit.

Three of the four regular-season meetings were decided by four or fewer points, a fact that made Brooklyn’s easy victory more confounding to Chicago center Joakim Noah. “It was disappointing,” Noah said. “We didn’t play well. We didn’t come out with the right mindset. They scored way too many points in the paint. We didn’t execute well offensively. But you know what – we’ve got to bounce back. No time to feel sorry for ourselves.” The playoff victory was the first for the Nets since the 2006-07 season. Six players scored in double figures for Brooklyn.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Comcast SportsNet Chicago, WWOR (Brooklyn)

ABOUT THE BULLS: The controversy surrounding point guard Derrick Rose is percolating again after the Game 1 rout. Rose tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in last season’s playoffs and hasn’t played at all this season despite the team having medically cleared him. The call is Rose’s over when he will play and Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau continues to walk a delicate line when asked about the former MVP. “Most likely out, but you never know,” Thibodeau said shortly before Saturday’s game began. “The playoffs are stretched out too, so you have to factor that in. Who knows another week from now where he is? You always want to leave that possibility open.” Point guard Kirk Hinrich left Game 1 with a thigh injury and his status is uncertain.

ABOUT THE NETS: It will be interesting to see if Brooklyn matches its emotional Game 1 showing. The contest was the first major sports playoff game held in the city since the 1956 World Series and the atmosphere was electric. “Everybody was excited for this game,” said point guard Deron Williams, who scored 22 points. “I think it has been a long time coming for this franchise, this organization with the move and everything. We expected to be here, so we came out playing like we wanted to be here.” Center Brook Lopez added 21 points and shooting guard Joe Johnson scored 16.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Nets’ last five home games.
* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Brooklyn.
* Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Nets interim coach P.J. Carlesimo notched his first postseason victory as a head coach since the 1996-97 campaign with Portland.

2. Noah played in Game 1 despite a foot injury but had just four points in 13 minutes.

3. Brooklyn F Gerald Wallace had 14 points in the opener after scoring just 21 total points over his last eight appearances.


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NBA

Monday, April 22

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Grizzlies at Clippers: What bettors need to know
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Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 181.5)

Clippers lead series 1-0.

The Memphis Grizzlies held opponents below 90 points per game in the regular season but were torched for 112 in the opener of their playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis will need to improve on the defensive end in Monday’s Game 2 and also take a more aggressive approach on the boards after Los Angeles had a 47-23 edge in Saturday’s 21-point victory. The Clippers have won eight straight contests.

Seven Los Angeles players scored in double figures in the opener and four of them were guards. Chris Paul had 23 points, Eric Bledsoe tallied 15 on 7-of-7 shooting, Chauncey Billups scored 14 and Jamal Crawford had 13. Memphis isn’t used to being pushed around on the glass and its top two rebounders – Zach Randolph with four and Marc Gasol with two – combined for just six boards. “They had two or three guys going to the glass every time,” point guard Mike Conley said. “They were jumping over us and using their athleticism.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Fox Sports Tennessee (Memphis), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Randolph wasn’t overly concerned about the Game 1 loss since the teams played a seven-game playoff series last season, but admitted he would be worried if Memphis returns home down 0-2. Gasol was highly disappointed with his club’s work on the boards,which included allowing Los Angeles to grab 14 on the offensive glass en route to a 25-5 edge in second-chance points. “That’s not acceptable,” Gasol said. “Once we made a stop, they kept running in and getting offensive rebounds and second-chance points. We have to be better than that. The rebounds were the difference.” The 23 boards were the lowest the Grizzlies have ever grabbed in a playoff game.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: While Los Angeles dominated the boards, power forward Blake Griffin was a relative non-factor as he deals with back spasms. Griffin had just 10 points and five rebounds in 25-plus minutes before fouling out. He and Randolph waged a physical battle that included Griffin being sent sprawling to the floor on more than a few occasions. “I’m ready for however many games it’s going to take,” Griffin said afterward. “If that’s the way he wants to play, let’s do it.” Center DeAndre Jordan led the Clippers with eight rebounds while forwards Caron Butler and Lamar Odom grabbed seven apiece.

TRENDS:

* Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies’ last 11 overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Clippers’ last seven home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Bledsoe also had six rebounds and four assists in a superb all-around Game 1 performance in which he played 18 minutes.

2. Conley was outplayed by Paul in the four regular-season meetings and had just 12 points in the opener.

3. Memphis allowed more than 112 points just once in the regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 22

Chicago at Brooklyn, 8:00 ET
Chicago: 16-7 ATS in a road game where the total is between 180 and 189.5
Brooklyn: 4-15 ATS in home games against Central division opponents

Memphis at LA Clippers, 10:30 ET
Memphis: 61-41 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent
LA Clippers: 85-115 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Monday

April 22, 2013


Before we break down tonight’s two playoff battles, let’s recap the betting action from the weekend. If you took the home favorites blindly on Saturday and Sunday, you would’ve produced a 6-2 record both straight up and against the spread. Betting $100 a game would’ve netted a return of $380 ($600-$220). Easy, right?

The two teams that won and didn’t cover were the Knicks and Nuggets. Neither looked overly impressive in Game 1 but they made shots when they had to and winning close game is a sign of a good team. Most of the results were clear-cut and we didn’t see many bad breaks with the sides, especially on Sunday as all four favorites won by double digits.

If there was a tough break, it goes out to Golden State. All-Star forward David Lee was ruled out for the rest of the postseason with a torn right hip flexor. Replacing a double-double machine (18.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG) won’t be easy but it could provide value for gamblers. If you can get down on game props, I’d start playing OVER on anything associated with Stephen Curry, because he’ll be chucking from everywhere here on out.

Total players saw a split on Saturday with the first two games going ‘under’ before the ‘over’ cashed in the nightcaps. On Sunday, the Pacers-Hawks combined for 197 points, which easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 185 1/2. The pace wasn’t there but Atlanta shot 50 percent from the floor and Indiana helped the cause with a 30-of-34 performance from the free throw line. The Spurs and Lakers never threatened the closing number of 191 and bettors should be aware that Los Angeles is now 4-1 to the ‘under’ in games without Kobe Bryant. The total for Game 2 opened at 187 ½ and already dropped to 186 ½.

Miami cruised past Milwaukee 110-87 and this game teased ‘over’ bettors (198) throughout the 48-minute session. The pair put up 50 in the first but could’ve been 60 if both teams made layups and free throws. Still, you only needed 101 in the second-half and it almost got there but the Bucks were outscored 58-42 in the final two quarters. Oklahoma City and Houston got close but a 45-point first quarter kept the ‘under’ in check for the game. Overall, the ‘under’ stands at 5-3.

Game 2 – Chicago at Brooklyn (TNT, 8:00 p.m.)

Despite losing three of four regular season meetings to Chicago, the Nets proved those outcomes didn’t mean much in Game 1. Brooklyn shot 56 percent from the field en route to a 106-89 wire-to-wire victory over the Bulls in Game 1. Nets point guard Deron Williams (22 points) led six Nets in double figures. Chicago wasn’t horrible offensively (47%) but it couldn’t weather the early storm and overcome a 60-37 halftime deficit. The Bulls showed some life in the second-half (54-46) and wound up covering as 4 ½-point favorites.The ‘over’ cashed in both halves and the closing number of 183 for the game was never in doubt for ‘over’ bettors.

Brooklyn was a 4 ½-point favorite for Game 1 and that number has moved for tonight’s battle. The total is also hovering in the same neighborhood of 183 points. The Bulls center Joakim Noah (foot) played 13 minutes on Saturday is expected to start in Game 2. Chicago point guard Derrick Rose (knee) isn’t expected to join the team for the postseason.

If you’re handicapping tonight’s game on current form, then you have to lean to the Nets. Including Saturday’s win, Brooklyn has gone 7-1 (5-3 ATS) in its last eight and the offense has busted triple digits in all of the wins. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last eight games off a loss. Make a note that the Bulls haven’t dropped three straight since mid-November, so if they do go down 0-2, they would be a strong look in Game 3. The best-of-seven series heads back to the United Center on Thursday.

Game 2 - Memphis at L.A. Clippers (TNT, 10:30 p.m.)

Similar to the Nets, the Los Angeles Clippers are hitting their stride at the right time and it showed Saturday. The Clippers ran past the Grizzlies 112-91 as 5 ½-points favorites to capture a 1-0 series lead. The Clippers had seven players score in double figures, with Chris Paul closing the game with 23 points and seven assists. The Grizzlies’ Tony Allen and Zach Randolph both got in early foul trouble and only finished with a combined 20 points. Allen only played 16 minutes and Randolph saw the court for 24, both way below their averages. The difference in Game 1 came down to rebounding and shooting. The Clippers crushed the Grizzlies on the glass by a 47-23 margin and 14 of those boards were offensive. Los Angeles connected on 55 percent from the floor, which helped a 37-point outburst by the home squad.

Even though the Clippers won the opener by 21 points, this was a one-point game early in the fourth quarter. Oddsmakers once again opened L.A. as a 5 ½-point home favorite. Going back to the handicapping theory on current form, the Clippers get the nod here. Los Angeles has won eight straight (6-2 ATS) and five of those wins have come at the Staples Center.

Including Saturday’s victory, the Clippers have won four of five against the Grizzlies this season. The lone loss did come at the Staples Center on Mar. 13 in a game that saw the Clippers only score 33 points in the final two quarters.

Game 1 easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 178 ½ and the line for Game 2 has been adjusted nearly three points to 181. The number is definitely inflated based on the outcome and the ‘under’ presents value. The Grizzlies (71) and Clippers (74) only combined for 145 points in the opener but the officials rewarded both teams with 56 free throw attempts. I don’t expect the pace to pick up and the free throws and shooting percentages should both drop tonight. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the five meetings this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, April 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Brooklyn -5 500 POD # 1

Brooklyn - Under 183.5 500



Memphis - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -6 500 POD # 2

L.A. Clippers - Over 179.5 500 POD # 3

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Milwaukee at Miami
The Heat look to follow up their 110-87 win over Milwaukee in Game 1 and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-14). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 23

Game 721-722: Milwaukee at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 111.595; Miami 127.922
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 16 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 14; 197
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-14); Under

Game 723-724: Boston at New York (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.455; New York 125.709
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: New York (-6 1/2); Over

Game 725-726: Golden State at Denver (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 118.735; Denver 129.232
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8; 207
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 23

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MILWAUKEE (38 - 45) at MIAMI (67 - 16) - 4/23/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 85-71 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MIAMI is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MIAMI is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (41 - 41) at NEW YORK (55 - 28) - 4/23/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 9-8 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-6 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (47 - 36) at DENVER (58 - 25) - 4/23/2013, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DENVER is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 7-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 23

Milwaukee lost 16 of last 22 games; can they even win a game in series? Bucks upset Heat 104-85 at home Dec 29, forcing 20 turnovers (+15), but lost other four meetings by 7-13-11-23 points, with under 3-0-1 in last four series games. Heat shot 55.9% from floor, also went 27-33 on foul line in easy Game 1 win. Bucks were -9 with Jennings on court, -14 in 15:00 he sat out; other than Jennings/Ellis, Milwaukee shot 37% for night, not good enough. Miami's bench was just 3-16 behind arc in Game 1, if they shoot better here, game could be even uglier.

Knicks won last four games with Celtics, by 3-15-19-7 points, making 35-74 behind arc in three games in this arena (16-56 in Boston). Celtics have 4th-best defensive 3-point %age, have more playoff experience on their side, but they're without Rondo, which killed them in second half of Game 1, when they were outscored 18-8 in 4th quarter and scored 25 points in whole second half. Four of five series games this year stayed under the total. You look at the first two Game 2's last night, and both visitors played much better than they did in Game 1. All Celtics really wanted was split in NYC, can still get that here.

Denver won four of five vs Golden State this season, with only loss a game they led 60-51 at half; they're 39-3 at home; they won by 11-11-2 in three home games vs Warriors this season. Golden State is in playoffs for only second time in last 19 years, now Lee is out for season with a torn hip flexor- he had 10 points, 14 boards in opener. Landry will be an able replacement for Lee, but Warriors' problem is who will be sub for Landry on second unit? Denver is 6-1 since Gallinari got hurt; they've got 58 wins because they're very deep. Nugget starters were 0-11 from arc in opener; 37-year old Miller bailed them out with 28 points.




NBA

Tuesday, April 23

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
Milwaukee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
Boston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
New York is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

10:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. DENVER
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games


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NBA

Tuesday, April 23

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NBA playoffs: Tuesday's East betting preview
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Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-14, 197)

Heat lead series 1-0

LeBron James fell two assists short of his ninth career playoff triple-double in Game 1 on Sunday. The Miami Heat still won by 23 points. The Heat will be looking to make it a 2-0 cushion in the best-of-7 series when they host the eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks again on Tuesday. James went 9-for-11 from the floor and made or participated in a series of highlight drives and dunks in the second half that the Bucks could not answer.

Miami’s starters rarely played together over the last couple weeks of the regular season, but any rust wore off by the time the third quarter got underway in Game 1. The Heat looked like a well-oiled machine while the Bucks struggled to get anything from anyone other than Brandon Jennings or Monta Ellis. The two guards combined for 48 points but could not get their big men involved. Milwaukee is the only playoff team with a sub-.500 record but was confident enough going into the series for Jennings to predict a win in six games. For that to happen now, the Bucks will need to take four of the next five.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Wisconsin (Milwaukee), SUN (Miami), NBATV

ABOUT THE BUCKS: Milwaukee’s biggest advantage was supposed to be on the glass, where they have Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova up front. Instead, the Bucks were outrebounded 46-31 by a Miami team that ranked last in the NBA in rebounding average during the regular season. Ilyasova was a non-factor, scoring two points on 1-of-7 shooting and attempting only one 3-pointer. Milwaukee could stand to slow things down a bit and move the ball instead of settling for jumpers off the dribble from Jennings and Ellis. The Bucks starting frontcourt of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova and Sanders combined for 18 field goal attempts while Jennings and Ellis put up 39 in Game 1.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami has won 38 of its last 40 games and has shown no sign that it is ready to slow down. James’ efficient performance was the standard for the whole team, with no one attempting more than Ray Allen’s 13 field goals. Chris Bosh did what Ilyasova has done so well at times, stepping out and going 3-for-4 from beyond the arc, and Chris Andersen provided energy to go along with 10 points and seven rebounds in 16 minutes off the bench. “All I care about is the win,” James said after the game. “I didn’t even know my stats. I just knew that we were playing efficient offensively besides the turnovers.” Those turnovers were the one thing keeping Milwaukee in the game in the first half, but the Heat cleaned that up after the break.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Miami 3-point specialists Allen and Shane Battier combined to go 3-for-15 from beyond the arc in Game 1.

2. James has had three career playoff games with at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists - the most in NBA history.

3. Milwaukee did not help itself by going 12-for-20 from the free throw line in Game 1.


Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-6.5, 185.5)

Knicks lead series 1-0.

The Knicks got 36 points from Carmelo Anthony in Saturday's 85-78 victory, but their defense made the difference. New York trailed by seven points late in the third quarter but limited Boston to only eight points in the fourth quarter. The Knicks forced eight turnovers in the final 12 minutes and 21 overall. "We've been playing like this since Rondo went down, so it's not an issue," Celtics center Kevin Garnett said in downplaying the point guard's absence. J.R. Smith, who on Monday was named the league's Sixth Man of the Year, has 15 points for the Knicks in the series opener.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, CSNNE (Boston), MSG (New York)

ABOUT THE CELTICS: Boston appeared to have the Knicks right where they wanted them through three quarters, controlling the tempo and forcing Anthony into difficult shots. Garnett and Paul Pierce each missed multiple games down the stretch due to ankle injuries, so fatigue may have been a factor. The lack of bench production certainly was a concern the Celtics, who got a combined four points and zero field goals from their reserves. Jeff Green carried the offense for most of the game, scoring 26 points, but he was limited to two free throws in the fourth. Coach Doc Rivers expects more from Garnett in Game 2. "We've got to get Kevin more involved," he said.

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Although Smith typically provides the spark off the bench, New York received huge contributions from veteran reserves Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin. Kidd, forced into a bigger role due to the ankle injury suffered by starting point guard Pablo Prigioni, had eight points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals. Martin also came up big, supplying 10 points and nine rebounds after sitting out the final five games of the regular season with an ankle injury. "When you got Jason Kidd on the floor who's been in as long as he's been in, and Kenyon, I mean it makes a world of difference," Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. "That was the whole reason for adding those guys to our team."

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Knicks’ last six home games.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Boston's eight fourth-quarter points tie a franchise record for its fewest in a quarter in a playoff game.

2. New York limited the Celtics to 25 second-half points, matching the franchise mark for fewest points allowed to an opponent in the postseason.

3. The Knicks are hopeful Prigioni will return Tuesday. They were 16-2 with him in the starting lineup.


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NBA

Tuesday, April 23

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Warriors at Nuggets: Game 2 betting preview
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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets (-8, 207)

Nuggets lead series 1-0

The first three quarters of Game 1 were all about a pair of young teams getting their feet wet in the playoffs. The final period was when both the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors really came alive. The Nuggets will try to take a commanding 2-0 lead when they host the Warriors in Game 2 on Tuesday. Golden State battled back in the fourth quarter despite losing David Lee early in the period and will have to figure out a way to win without him going forward.

Lee, who was the team’s lone All-Star and led the league in double-doubles during the regular season, went down with a hip injury in Game 1 and is expected to miss the remainder of the playoffs. The veteran forward was playing his first career postseason game and had helped the Warriors gain an advantage on the glass with 14 rebounds in 29 minutes before exiting. With Lee out of the paint, Andre Miller took over in the final quarter for Denver. The veteran point guard scored 18 of his 28 points in the final frame and drove for a layup with 1.3 seconds left to give the Nuggets a 97-95 victory.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, Comcast SportsNet Bay Area (Golden State), Altitude (Denver), TNT

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: An MRI taken after the game on Saturday revealed a torn right hip flexor for Lee, ruling him out for the rest of playoffs. That leaves a big hole in the frontcourt for Golden State, which had thrived with Lee working alongside Andrew Bogut. Those two helped the Warriors build up a 55-45 rebounding advantage in Game 1. With Lee out, Carl Landry will likely move into the starting power forward spot, tightening the defense a tad but shortening the bench and leaving the team without its best inside scorer and weak-side rebounder. Golden State could put even more of the offensive burden on the backcourt trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack. Curry went 1-for-10 in the first half on Saturday but finished with 19 points and nine assists and helped the Warriors score 31 points in the fourth quarter. His 3-pointer with 14 seconds left tied it at 95. Golden State was the top 3-point shooting team in the regular season but struggled to 8-for-22 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and will need to pick that pace up to survive without Lee.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS: Denver will be looking to take full advantage of Lee’s absence with the return of Kenneth Faried, who missed Game 1 with a sprained ankle. Faried averaged 11.5 points and 9.2 rebounds in the regular season and is one of many Nuggets able to finish strong on the break and battle in the paint. Denver leaned on Miller in the fourth quarter and the veteran rewarded that trust with strong play on both ends of the floor. Miller led a reserve corps that totaled 49 points, helping to make up for a less impressive effort from the starters. Point guard Ty Lawson was held to 12 points on 6-of-15 shooting and four assists. The Nuggets went 38-3 at home during the regular season and were counting on their team athleticism to wear the Warriors down in the fourth quarter. Getting Faried back should help Denver push the pace right from the start on Tuesday.

TRENDS

* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.

* Over is 4-1 in Nuggets' last five overall.

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.

* Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors are 3-18 in 21 games without Lee over the last three seasons.

2. Golden State turned the ball over 18 times in Game 1, leading to 18 points for the Nuggets.

3. Faried has averaged 11.7 points and 10.9 rebounds in seven career games against the Warriors.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday Playoff Tips

April 23, 2013


The home teams dominated the series openers in the first round of the NBA playoffs this past weekend. Three teams look to take 2-0 advantages on Tuesday night, including the top two seeds in the East (Heat and Knicks). Meanwhile, the Nuggets attempt to extend their lengthy home win streak against a Warriors' squad down one of their stars. We'll begin in South Florida with the defending champs seeking another blowout.

Bucks at Heat (-14, 197) - 7:30 PM EST

There was no reason to believe Brandon Jennings' bold statement prior to this series that the 38-44 Bucks would knock off the Heat in six games. Miami proved in the series opener again that crazy predictions won't faze last season's title-holders, as the Heat blasted Milwaukee, 110-87 to cash easily as 13-point favorites. Past Jennings and Monta Ellis, the rest of the Bucks combined for just 39 points, while Miami chased Milwaukee in the second half with a 58-point outburst.

Erik Spoelstra's improved to 12-3 ATS the last 15 games with the victory in the series opener, including the fifth cover in the previous six opportunities at home. After the Bucks covered the first two meetings with the Heat, Miami's defense has stiffened up by not allowing more than 94 points to Milwaukee in each of the last three meetings.

The Bucks are listed as a double-digit underdog for just the second time this season tonight, while failing to cover five of their last seven times as a road 'dog. Playing away from Milwaukee has been a struggle for Jim Boylan's team recently, losing 10 of their past 11 road contests, with the lone victory coming in the season finale at Oklahoma City as Kevin Durant sat out. The 'under' is profiting on the highway recently for the Bucks, cashing in seven of the last 10 outings.

Celtics at Knicks (-6 ½, 185 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, as the Knicks took a positive step forward by grabbing Saturday's Game 1 over the Celtics, 85-78. Boston put up 29 points in the opening quarter, but the C's limped to just 25 points in the second half, including an eight-point spot in the final 12 minutes. The Knicks didn't shoot well from the floor (40%), as New York leaned on the league's leading scorer to carry them to victory.

Carmelo Anthony lifted the Knicks with a game-high 36 points for just his second playoff victory in a New York uniform. The Celtics' bench was one of the main reasons for the horrific offensive performance thanks to a four-point output from Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, and Jordan Crawford on 0-7 shooting from the floor (Lee converted four free throws). The New York bench shined as Sixth Man of the Year J.R. Smith pumped in 15 points, while Kenyon Martin contributed 10 points.

The Knicks have taken four of five meetings from the Celtics this season, while Boston has now lost eight straight games in the role of a road underdog (3-5 ATS). New York is riding an 11-game winning streak at Madison Square Garden since losing to Oklahoma City on March 7, as Mike Woodson's team has covered nine times in this stretch.

Warriors at Nuggets (-8, 207) - 10:30 PM EST

Denver slipped by Golden State in the series opener, 97-95 as Andre Miller's layup in the final seconds gave the Nuggets their 24th straight home victory. The Warriors managed to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs, but lost David Lee to a hip injury that will sideline the power forward for the rest of the postseason. The Nuggets fell to 1-4 ATS the last five games, as Denver tries to take control of this series heading back to Oakland on Friday.

Past Miller's 28 points, the Nuggets needed to scratch and claw as many points as possible from Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer, who combined to score 33 points on 15-of-43 shooting from the floor. Denver's three-point shooting ranked 25th in the league and it showed in Game 1, as the Nuggets connected on just 3-of-16 attempts from downtown. The game finished 'under' the total of 211 ½, but that also tied into the fact that things tipped off at 3:30 local time in Denver.

The Warriors played three games without Lee in the regular season and covered in both opportunities as an underdog at New Orleans and New York. The Nuggets will get a huge boost in the paint as Kenneth Faried is expected to return to the lineup after missing a week with a sprained ankle. Golden State has covered five of its last six games, but own a 4-10 ATS record the last 14 opportunities in the road 'dog role.

[StarDust Bum]

Zig-Zag Angle

April 23, 2013

NBA ZIG ZAGS…Up In Smoke

Long before the GOLD SHEET first called out the premise, Zig Zags were primarily recognized as popular rolling papers for those who enjoy their smoke of choice.

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2012.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 708-628-36 • 52.9%
Game Two: 174-144-13 • 54.7%
Game Three: 181-143-6 • 55.8%
Game Four: 133-124-6 • 51.1%
Game Five: 93-100-6 • 48.1%
Game Six: 67-61-2 • 52.3%
Game Seven: 27-22-2 • 55.1%

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game 3 where they become a near 56% point spread play on the blind. That’s especially true for home teams that were limited to 75 or fewer points in Game 2 as these guys get really stoked, going 14-4 in these contests.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 12 years (2001-2012), going 397-379-26 – or 51.1% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Round One: 334-293-29 • 53.2%
Round Two: 216-188-7 • 53.4%
Round Three: 104-101-6 • 50.7%
Round Four: 52-46-3 • 53.0%

While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round Two as they are 117-99-4, including 71-45-3 when playing off a double-digit defeat.

Planting The Seed

No. 1 Seeds: 93-90-5 • 50.8%
No. 2 Seeds: 93-77-3 • 54.7%
No. 3 Seeds: 81-71-9 • 53.2%
No. 4 Seeds: 74-64-1 • 53.6%
No. 5 Seeds: 62-57-2 • 52.1%
No. 6 Seeds: 50-50-2 • 50.0%
No. 7 Seeds: 38-53-3 • 41.7%
No. 8 Seeds: 54-39-5 • 58.0%

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Disparate results abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Digging deeper, No. 7’s are a not-so-lucky 3-13-1 as underdogs of 9 or more points, while No.8’s are 12-3 as a ‘pick’ or favorite.

Rocky Mountain High

So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting:

1) Double Digit Underdogs are 41-22-1 • 65.2% and,
2) 4.5 or more point favorites off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8 • 78.3%.

After all, they make the best sensimilla… if you know what I mean.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 NBA Playoff Results

April 23, 2013

2012 Playoff Results

NBA First Round

-- Home teams are 9-1
-- Favorites are 9-1 straight up
-- Favorites are 6-4 against the spread
-- The Under is 6-4

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Saturday Apr. 20, 2013

Boston New York (-7.5) 85-78 Underdog Under (189)

Golden State Denver (-7.5) 97-95 Underdog Under (211.5)

Chicago Brooklyn (-4.5) 106-89 Favorite Over (181.5)

Memphis L.A. Clippers (-5.5) 112-91 Favorite Over (178.5)

Sunday Apr. 21, 2013

Atlanta Indiana (-7) 107-90 Favorite Over (185.5)

L.A. Lakers San Antonio (-9) 91-79 Favorite Under (191)

Milwaukee Miami (-13.5) 110-87 Favorite Under (197.5)

Houston Oklahoma City (-10.5) 120-91 Favorite Under (214)

Monday Apr. 22, 2013
Chicago (+5.5) Brooklyn 90-82 Underdog Under (183)

Memphis L.A. Clippers (-5.5) 93-91 Underdog Over (180.5)

Tuesday Apr. 23, 2013
Milwaukee Miami - - -
Boston New York - - -
Golden State Denver - - -

Wednesday Apr. 24, 2013
Houston Oklahoma City - - -
Atlanta Indiana - - -
L.A. Lakers San Antonio - - -

Thursday Apr. 25, 2013
Miami Milwaukee - - -
Brooklyn Chicago - - -
L.A. Clippers Memphis - - -

Friday Apr. 26, 2013
New York Boston - - -
San Antonio L.A. Lakers - - -
Denver Golden State - - -

Saturday Apr. 27, 2013
Brooklyn Chicago - - -
L.A. Clippers Memphis - - -
Indiana Atlanta - - -
Oklahoma City Houston - - -

Sunday Apr. 28, 2013
New York Boston - - -
Miami Milwaukee - - -
San Antonio L.A. Lakers - - -
Denver Golden State - - -

Monday Apr. 29, 2013
Indiana Atlanta - - -
*Chicago Brooklyn - - -
Oklahoma City Houston - - -

Tuesday Apr. 30, 2013
*Milwaukee Miami - - -
*L.A. Lakers San Antonio - - -
*Golden State Denver - - -
*Memphis L.A. Clippers - - -

Wednesday May 1, 2013
*Boston New York - - -
*Atlanta Indiana - - -
*Houston Oklahoma City - - -

Thursday May 2, 2013
*Miami Milwaukee - - -
*Brooklyn Chicago - - -
*San Antonio L.A. Lakers - - -
*Denver Golden State - - -

Friday May 3, 2013
*New York Boston - - -
*Indiana Atlanta - - -
*Oklahoma City Houston- - -

Saturday May 4, 2013
*Milwaukee Miami - - -
*Chicago Brooklyn - - -
*L.A. Lakers San Antonio - - -
*Golden State Denver - - -

Sunday May 5, 2013
*Boston New York - - -
*Atlanta Indiana - - -
*Houston Oklahoma City - - -
*Memphis L.A. Clippers - - -

*If Neccessary