The Bum's NBA Regular and Playoff Season's Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, April 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the court or on the bench? NBA final day injury report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday is the final night of the NBA regular season and some teams are preparing for the playoffs while others are looking at the offseason.

Here's a look at the injury and rest situation heading into the final game of the season.

Boston Celtics
The Celtics will finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and play the Knicks in the first round. Paul Pierce is dealing with an illness but is probable Wednesday against Indiana. Kevin Garnett has played three of the past four games, but missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. Jason Terry will sit out.

Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will finish fourth in the Eastern Conference and have nothing to play for in its final game against Detroit. Brooklyn could rest Joe Johnson who missed five games in late March and early April with a quad injury.

New York Knicks
New York has clinched the second seed in the East and has sent its stars to the bench. Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Ray Felton and Kenyon Martin all wore suits on Monday against the Bobcats. Anthony could see some minutes on Wednesday against the Hawks, according to the New York Post. Chandler has missed the past five games with a neck injury. Coach Mike Woodson told ESPN Radio that he is confident that both Chandler and Kenyon Martin will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs against the Celtics.

Miami Heat
The Heat have nothing to play for against the bottom-feeding Magic. Four members of the starting lineup -- LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Mario Chalmers -- all sat in the team's last game against Cleveland. James has been nursing a hamstring injury while Wade and Bosh have been bothered by knee injuries.

Chicago Bulls
Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah returned to the lineup on Monday for the Bulls. Chicago will finish either fifth or sixth and will finish the season against Washington. "We need a lot of energy late, and I told them I was going to play today," Gibson said after the game. "They had me on limited minutes, they had Jo on limited minutes, but we just wanted to be out there and really push the guys and know that we got to sharpen up. We got to get ready for the playoffs."

San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will finish second in the Western Conference. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard did not play Tuesday against Golden State. But Manu Ginobili could return to the lineup against Minnesota on Wednesday according to the San Antonio Express-News.

Denver Nuggets
Kenneth Faried will miss Denver's game against Phoenix. If the Nuggets win, they will finish third in the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers will make the playoffs if they beat Houston in the final game of the season. Kobe Bryant is out with a torn ACL and Steve Nash will also miss the game with the Rockets as MRIs confirmed he has nerve irritation from old injuries that are contributing to his hamstring pain the team announced Tuesday.

Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum were all expected to miss Tuesday's game against the Clippers and Batum is confirmed to miss the team's final game against the Warriors.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Wednesday

April 17, 2013

Similar to other sports, the last day or week of the regular season creates numerous meaningless games and the Association is no different. The playoffs start Saturday and 15 of the 16 possible playoff spots have been clinched, with the eighth seed in the Western Conference still up for grabs.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Miami Heat
No. 2 New York Knicks
No. 3 Indiana Pacers
No. 4 Brooklyn Nets
No. 7 Boston Celtics
No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Chicago is currently the No. 5 seed and with a win tonight at home against Washington, the Bulls will secure that spot. Also, the Bulls can lock up the fifth seed if Atlanta loses at New York since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Hawks laid down last night at home against Toronto and they’ll probably do the same tonight. Personally, I think Atlanta is making the right decision. It went 2-2 against Indiana this season and 1-2 against Brooklyn, which isn’t much of a different. The key in the East is avoiding Miami and you’d rather avoid a possible second-round matchup (1 vs. 4/5) with the Heat and catch them down in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Unlike the East, the Western Conference only has three seeds locked up.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs
No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

The Nuggets would clinch the No. 3 seed with a win at home Wednesday against Phoenix or with a Clippers loss at Sacramento. Los Angeles can’t drop below the No. 4 seed but it could lose homecourt advantage to No. 5 Memphis in their first-round series. That will happen if the Clippers lose at the Kings, and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz. Utah needs to win to have a shot at the No. 8 seed. Along with a victory, the Jazz will need the Rockets to beat the Lakers at Staples Center. If the Purple and Gold win this game, they would jump Houston and claim the No. 7 seed and also knock the Jazz out of the playoffs. If the Rockets beat L.A. tonight, they can also improve their seed to No. 6 if Golden State loses at Portland.

With all of the above being said, you basically have seven games that have playoff implications tonight and you could say four or five because the Hawks are laying down again and the Warriors might sit their starters since a matchup against San Antonio as the No. 7 seed might be better suited than a series as the No. 6 seed against Denver.

Twelve of the 15 games on tonight’s board will start at 8:05 p.m. ET, with the last three slated to tip at 10:35 p.m. ET. Similar to Week 17 of the NFL, you can expect the late games to be taken off the board when the early games begin.

How do you attack tonight’s board? With the help from a few VI experts, let’s take a closer look at two teams fighting for the eighth seed in the West.

Utah at Memphis: Even though Utah faces a must-win spot, VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers isn’t buying the Jazz. He explained, “The Grizzlies are locked into the fifth seed in the West, but Memphis can still grab home-court in the first round with a win and a Clippers' loss at Sacramento. Utah has plenty of pressure of them tonight to win, plus needing a Lakers' loss at Houston later tonight. Memphis has taken two of the first three meetings with Utah this season, while the Jazz are just 13-27 on the road. The Jazz has lost 13 of their last 14 road games to teams currently in the playoffs.” Make a note that Utah recently captured a 90-84 win against Memphis at Salt Lake City in mid-March and while the road record hasn’t been great, the Jazz have won and covered three in row as visitors. Total players might want to lean ‘under’ here despite a low number of 180. The Grizzlies (7-1) and Jazz (4-1) have both been leaning to the ‘under’ lately and this game should have plenty of defense. Tip-off is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET and ESPN will be providing national coverage.

Houston at L.A. Lakers: The Rockets have won two of three against the Lakers this season but the pair hasn’t met since early January and in one of Houston’s victories (125-112), Los Angeles didn’t have Dwight Howard or Pau Gasol in the lineup. The two big men will be in action tonight but the “Purple and Gold” won’t have Kobe Bryant or Steve Nash. Even with those key injuries, the Lakers are laying 2 ½-points to the Rockets and that number could spike if Utah beats Memphis in the early game, which creates a must-win situation for the Lakers. Los Angeles has been a tough out at home lately, going 12-1 in its last 13. As mentioned above, Houston has a lot to play for as well. A win would lock up the No. 7 seed and it could jump to No. 6 if the Warriors lose at Portland. This season, Houston went 1-3 against the Spurs and 1-2 against the Thunder but San Antonio isn’t in great form and is also dealing with key injuries. As much as fans would love to see James Harden face OKC in the first round, even Harden would admit they have a better shot against the depleted Spurs. Without Kobe in the lineup this season, the Lakers went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread. The ‘under’ went 2-1 as well. ESPN will provide coverage at 10:35 p.m. ET.

The other 13 games on the board aren’t easy to handicap, which is why oddsmakers didn’t start posting numbers till this morning (10:45 a.m. ET). It’s a crap shoot and my advice is to tread lightly with numerous starters sitting out. For what it’s worth (not much), here’s my Fearless Predictions for the last day.

Philadelphia 95 Indiana 90
Miami 96 Orlando 90
Toronto 105 Boston 90
Chicago 98 Washington 96
Oklahoma City 110 Milwaukee 100
New York 90 Atlanta 85
Detroit 105 Brooklyn 100
Cleveland 92 Charlotte 91
Dallas 94 New Orleans 88
San Antonio 103 Minnesota 90
Memphis 86 Utah 83
Denver 114 Phoenix 104
L.A. Clippers 102 Sacramento 99
Golden State 100 Portland 90
L.A. Lakers 95 Houston 94

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Wednesday

April 17, 2013

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since April 08, 2012 at home when facing a team they beat in their previous two matchups of the season.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bobcats are 11-0 OU (10.3 ppg) since February 11, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Trailblazers are 12-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since February 01, 2011 at home after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Nicolas Batum shot worse than 33% from the field.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Warriors are 11-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since February 14, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest after a win in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Spurs are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since January 10, 2012 after a loss on the road in which Daniel Green shot worse than 33% from the field.

-- The Bucks are 7-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since April 13, 2012 after a loss in which Monta Ellis scored at least 30 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, April 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 8:00 PM ET Toronto -5.5 500 POD # 4
Toronto - Under 194 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +5.5 500 POD # 5
Brooklyn - Under 196 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET New York -4.5 500 POD # 2
New York - Over 193.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland +2.5 500
Charlotte - Under 202 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Miami -5.5 500 POD # 6
Miami - Over 191.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Indiana -3 500
Indiana - Under 186.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +8.5 500 POD # 7
Chicago - Under 186.5 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Utah +4.5 500
Memphis - Under 178.5 500

New Orleans - 8:00 PM ET Dallas -8 500
Dallas - Under 198.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +9 500 POD # 8
San Antonio - Under 199.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -4 500 POD # 3
Oklahoma City - Under 203 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Denver -12.5 500
Denver - Under 211 500

Houston - 10:30 PM ET Houston +2.5 500 POD # 1
L.A. Lakers - Under 202.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:30 PM ET Sacramento +6.5 500
Sacramento - Over 205.5 500

Golden State - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -8.5 500
Portland - Under 207 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Power Rankings

Current Rank Last Week Change Team W-L

(ATS) Power Rating Team Comments
1 1 no change in rankings 65-16
(45-36-0) -15.0 Miami
When the Heat repeat (and they will), I'll be the least surprised person in the house. They were No. 1 in these rankings almost every week. You do realize they have won 36 of their last 38, don't you?

2 2 no change in rankings 60-21
(49-30-2) -14.0 Oklahoma City
While I have Miami as the prohibitive favorite to win it all, I'd probably be just as surprised if the Thunder failed to make in a Finals rematch. Their toughest opponent could be the Clippers in the second round.

3 4 move up in rankings1 55-26
(45-36-0) -12.5 L.A. Clippers
This team is peaking at the right time. If they win their season finale (at Sacramento), they will enter the playoffs with the longest win streak in the West. Underrated is the fact they are #4 in the league in points allowed. Better than San Antonio and Denver, but looks like they might get a worse draw.

4 5 move up in rankings1 56-25
(48-32-1) -12.0 Denver
With the best home record in the league, they are a lock to win their first home series. But the second round (possibly vs. San Antonio) will be interesting.

5 3 move down in rankings2 58-23
(39-40-2) -11.8 San Antonio
The Spurs picked a bad time to come in with their lowest ranking of the season. Something tells me they will not make the Western Conference Finals.

6 6 no change in rankings 53-28
(45-34-2) -11.0 New York
The Knicks are peaking. But keep these things in mind. Carmelo Anthony has only made it out of the first round once. The Knicks have not won a playoff series in more than a decade. And they draw Boston in the first round.

7 8 move up in rankings1 55-26
(45-34-2) -10.5 Memphis
The Grizzlies are likely to have the honor of being the "best team" that doesn't get out of the first round. Still though, it's amazing they were this good despite dealing Rudy Gay.

8 7 move down in rankings1 49-31
(42-38-0) -10.0 Indiana
The Pacers have not played well down the stretch. Lost four of five with the only win coming in an amazing comeback and they might not even finish with 50 wins.

9 9 no change in rankings 45-36
(41-39-1) -9.5 Houston
Being the highest scoring team in the league will make them a tough out, but being the worst defensive team to make the playoffs will ensure they don't advance.

10 10 no change in rankings 48-33
(39-39-3) -9.0 Brooklyn
I think it's safe to say the Nets will win their first round series, regardless if they play Chicago or Atlanta. But they are absolutely not going to challenge Miami.

11 11 no change in rankings 44-37
(33-46-2) -8.5 L.A. Lakers
If they can draw San Antonio in the first round, they might have a chance to make things interesting. If they get Oklahoma City, they will soon be joining Kobe at home.

12 12 no change in rankings 46-35
(41-39-1) -8.4 Golden State
Hats off to the Warriors for making the playoffs. But they will either play Denver (best home record) or San Antonio (where they have lost 29 straight) Goodbye.

13 17 move up in rankings4 43-38
(42-38-1) -8.3 Utah
Too little, too late? The Jazz leapfrog over the middle of the pack teams in the Eastern Conference, but the problem is they play in the Western Conference and by the time you read this, they might be done for the season.

14 13 move down in rankings1 40-41
(47-34-0) -8.0 Dallas
The Mavs finally got back to .500 before losing at home to Memphis Monday, but it was way too late. At least they can shave those non-playoff beards.

15 14 move down in rankings1 44-37
(36-45-0) -7.5 Chicago
When the spotlight was on down the stretch, the Bulls won some big games (Miami, Brooklyn, New York). The problem was that they also lost to Detroit and Toronto twice and only beat Orlando by one.

16 15 move down in rankings1 41-39
(36-41-3) -7.4 Boston
People will try and make the case that the Celtics can beat the Knicks. Heck, I tried to do it above. But guess what? It ain't happening.

17 16 move down in rankings1 44-37
(37-42-2) -7.3 Atlanta
Don't care who the playoff opponent is, they aren't winning a series. Nice to see they didn't even care to get the No. 5 Tuesday night.

18 18 no change in rankings 29-52
(44-35-2) -4.5 Washington
Huge drop here as we start to hit the non-playoff teams. The Wiz played well over the final three months, just not lately, going 0-5 SU/ATS heading into the final game.

19 19 no change in rankings 37-44
(36-45-0) -4.3 Milwaukee
It's up to the Heat if they want to sweep the Bucks. Why is no one mentioning this as one of the worst playoff teams ever (37 wins as of Wednesday)?

20 20 no change in rankings 33-48
(40-40-1) -4.0 Toronto
A four-game win streak (entering Wednesday) comes at a curious time? Why not tank?

21 21 no change in rankings 30-51
(37-41-3) -3.9 Minnesota
Of all the non-playoff teams in the West, except one, the T-Wolves played the best over the last month. That's sad.

22 22 no change in rankings 33-48
(38-42-1) -3.8 Philadelphia
Speaking of sad, Doug Collins has worn out his welcome in Philly. He's probably a better commentator anyway though. ESPN could use him to replace Doris Burke.

23 23 no change in rankings 27-54
(40-41-0) -3.6 New Orleans
Lost 10 of 11 road games heading into regular season finale, going 2-9 ATS. This team still has a long way to go.

24 25 move up in rankings1 28-53
(37-42-2) -3.5 Sacramento
Who knows where this team will even be playing games next season? Is it Seattle or Sacramento? They could play in Saskatoon and the end result will still be a bad team.

25 24 move down in rankings1 33-48
(34-43-4) -3.4 Portland
If they don't beat Golden State at home Wednesday night, the Blazers will end the regular season on a 13-game losing streak. A terrible end to one of the worst seasons in franchise history.

26 27 move up in rankings1 29-52
(39-41-1) -3.0 Detroit
It's a crime that this is only the fourth-worst team in the Eastern Conference. They have covered eight straight games heading into the regular season finale and won four in a row straight up. Again, why not tank?

27 26 move down in rankings1 24-57
(39-40-2) -1.5 Cleveland
For all the talk of improvement since that disastrous first post-LeBron year, this is where the Cavs are at. Kyrie Irving did not play well when the games no longer mattered.
28 28 no change in rankings 25-56

(32-46-3) -1.0 Phoenix
This is the worst season in Suns' history since their expansion year of 1968-69.

29 29 no change in rankings 20-61
(36-43-2) -0.5 Orlando
Remember when the Magic were 2-0 and Glen Davis was yelling about "respect"? I laughed at this.

30 30 no change in rankings 20-61
(30-50-1) 1.0 Charlotte
Well, it was better than last year...

[StarDust Bum]

NBA playoff odds: Lakers big dogs vs. Spurs


The Game 1 lines for the NBA playoffs have been released at offshore books and in Las Vegas.

Here are the opening lines as tweeted by Teddy Covers:

Saturday:
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks (-7, 192.5)

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets (-8, 210)

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets (-4.5, 182.5)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 179)

Sunday:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 185)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 192)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat (-13, 199)

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-10, 212.5)

The series prices have also been released. Here are the odds from online book CarbonSports.ag:

Eastern Conference:

(8) Milwaukee Bucks 38-44 vs. (1) Miami Heat 66-16 (+4000, -6000)

(7) Boston Celtics 41-40 vs. (2) New York Knicks 54-28 (+290, -360)

(6) Atlanta Hawks 44-38 vs. (3) Indiana Pacers 49-32 (+400, -600)

(5) Chicago Bulls 45-37 vs. (4) Brooklyn Nets 49-33 (+145, -165)

Western Conference:

(8) Houston Rockets 45-37 vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder 60-22 (+1200, -2000)

(7) Los Angeles Lakers 45-37 vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs 58-24 (+1000, -1600)

(6) Golden State Warriors 47-35 vs. (3) Denver Nuggets 57-25 (+500, -700)

(5) Memphis Grizzlies 56-26 vs. (4) Los Angeles Clippers 56-26 (+155, -175)

[StarDust Bum]

Momemtum gives these three NBA teams added playoff value

Momentum is worth its weight in gold come playoff time and often the hottest team – not the best team – makes a run at the title. With the NBA playoffs kicking off this weekend, we look at three teams that are peaking at the perfect time and providing added value in the NBA futures market.

Memphis Grizzlies (+2,500)

The Grizzlies were the sharp darling before the season started and haven’t strayed too far from their opening NBA title odds. Memphis is a winner in nine of its last 11 games, posting a 7-3-1 ATS mark in that span. The Grizzlies own the top-ranked defense in the league and unlike most teams at this time of the year, they are relatively healthy.

Brooklyn Nets (+5,000)

Jay-Z may not want to rush out and sell all his stock in the Nets just yet. Brooklyn is picking up speed heading into the postseason and will have home court in the opening round as the No. 4 seed in the East. The Nets have won seven of their last nine games (5-4 ATS) including key matchups with Indiana and Boston, thanks in part to the play of Deron Williams (averaging almost 25 points this month). The Nets opened at 30-1 to win the NBA title and were as big as 100-1 after a slow start to the season.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1,500)

The Clippers strut into playoffs having won seven straight games while boasting a 5-2 ATS count in that stretch. Los Angeles' win versus the Kings Wednesday secured the No. 4 spot in the West and holds down home court for the first round. The Clips, who opened at 15-1, are also healthy with Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups back in the lineup.

[StarDust Bum]

As Rockets prepare for Thunder, Harden ready to be the ‘head honcho’

James Harden, after hitting a winning shot at home against Phoenix, knows he will have to carry the Rockets on his shoulders in playoffs. (Smiley N. Pool / Chronicle)

James Harden knew the attention – the cameras, the expectations and most of all the opposing defense – would all be focused on him. “It comes with the package,” he said. But he also knew the matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder would push it all to dramatically greater levels of scrutiny and pressure.

He said he had not yet processed his thoughts about beginning his first playoff series with the Rockets against his former team, thinking instead of the still-fresh loss to the Lakers that sent him and the Rockets to the eighth seed and a Sunday opener in Oklahoma City. But he immediately knew the story line and demands to come.

“I have to do a good job of handling it well, making sure I’m doing the right things,” Harden said. “Obviously, I’m new to this. I might make some mistakes, but just continue to work at it.

“As a leader, as the head honcho guy, having all the attention on me – it’s new to me. But I’m trying my best to do a good job with it.”

His importance to the Rockets’ chances had long since become obvious, though never more-so than in the Rockets three games against the Thunder. In the Rockets two losses – both played in the second game in two nights with the first adding the emotional and travel-taxing trip between games to attend the memorial service for Kevin McHale’s daughter Sasha – Harden struggled and the Rockets were blown out.

Harden went 3 of 17 in the loss in Oklahoma City; 6 of 17 in Houston. The Rockets lost by a combined 52 points. In the third meeting, with the Rockets short-handed because of the then-pending trades of Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Toney Douglas and Cole Aldrich, Harden scored a career-high 46 points and the Rockets rallied from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to the win.

All three games demonstrated the Rockets’ offense at its best and worst. In the losses, the Thunder trapped hard on pick-and-roll ballhandlers and quickly rotated to the lane. The Rockets player and ball movement broke down, as it did in the final 10 minutes in Los Angeles, and the Thunder dominated. In the Rockets win, the Rockets pace-and-space offense got them early open shots, the Rockets hit 15 3-pointers and made 47.8 percent of their shots in a 122-119 win.

The Rockets showed both sides of their offense in the loss in Los Angeles, but they said it would serve as a valuable lesson, a chance Jeremy Lin said to “Grow up from failure.”

The Rockets would not, however, lament failing to get a presumably more favorable match up with the Spurs.

“It’s 0-0,” forward Chandler Parsons said. “I’m perfectly happy about going in there and playing against the Thunder. I think we’re better than the eighth seed. It was obviously a really tough race so there’s not much distance between sixth and eighth. I think we’re ready to go. We’ve beaten them before this year so it’s a positive sign.”

They will face a very different challenge than in Wednesday’s loss. The Rockets stopped running on Wednesday when the Lakers began pounding the ball inside and running their offense through Pau Gasol. The Thunder offense was ranked second in the NBA this season, scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions, just one-tenth of a point per 100 possessions less than the Miami Heat. But Oklahoma City is a jump shooting team, ranking 13th in points scored in the paint per possession.

When the Rockets have had success through stretches against the Thunder, it was by protecting the lane and controlling the boards, allowing them to run.

“It was bad, losing the last two games, but you just forget that, rest and be ready for Oklahoma City,” center Omer Asik said. “Of course, they play fast like we do. They play pretty good defense to get the steal or rebound. They play quick. It will be exciting and fast games.

“We try to just not (let) them get into the paint and get easy points, just try to make them more jump shooters, get the rebound, get the fast breaks and get easy buckets.”

The Rockets were the most high-paced team in the league this season, Oklahoma City 10th. But when they met, they were both on the run, averaging 107 possessions a game, nearly 10 more than the Rockets averaged to lead the league. After grinding to a halt against the Lakers, the Rockets can expect to play that part of their style, for better or worse.

“We’re definitely going to try impose our style on them and be ourselves,” Lin said. “It’s a pretty hostile environment, too. I know we’re the eighth seed, but at the end of the day, I feel when we play our brand, we can play with anybody.”

That will have to begin with Harden. The sixth man in the Oklahoma City run to The Finals last season, this is his role now. Regardless of opponent, the Rockets will only go as far as he can take them.

“No matter where we were, James is one of the top players in the league. He’s going to get a lot of attention,” McHale said. “I’m sure it will just be more there.”

Still, as much as the days leading up to the first round might be about his return to Oklahoma City, the greater challenge will come when the games begin. The Rockets’ road losses might have increased the attention on the individual matchup, but the next tests to come will be even tougher.

“We have to do a great job of bouncing back,” Harden said. “The regular season is over. Time for the playoffs.”

[StarDust Bum]

Lines on NBA Playoffs as of Thursday Noon:

Saturday, April 20

Time Away Line Pick Home Line Pick Amount No Pick

3:00 PM Boston +6.5 New York -6.5
Over 190.5 Under 190.5

5:30 PM Golden State +7.5 Denver-7.5
Over 210 Under 210

8:00 PM Chicago +4.5 Brooklyn -4.5
Over 182.5 Under 182.5

10:30 PM Memphis +5 L.A. Clippers -5
Over 179 Under 179


Sunday, April 21

Time Away Line Pick Home Line Pick Amount No Pick

1:00 PM Atlanta +6.5 Indiana -6.5
Over 185 Under 185

3:30 PM L.A. Lakers +9 San Antonio -9
Over 190 Under 190

7:00 PM Milwaukee +13 Miami -13
Over 199 Under 199

9:30 PM Houston +10 Oklahoma -10
Over 212.5 Under 212.5

[StarDust Bum]

First Round Cheat Sheet

April 18, 2013


Eastern Conference

(1) Miami vs. (8) Milwaukee

-- Miami (66-16 SU, 46-36 ATS)
-- Milwaukee (38-44 SU, 37-55 ATS)
-- Heat won season series, 3-1
-- Heat covered two of four meetings
-- The 'under' cashed three times

(2) New York vs. (7) Boston

-- New York (54-28 SU, 46-34-2 ATS)
-- Boston (41-40 SU, 36-42-3 ATS)
-- Knicks won season series, 3-1
-- Knicks covered three times, including twice at Boston
-- The 'under' cashed three times

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Atlanta

-- Indiana (49-32 SU, 42-39 ATS)
-- Atlanta (44-38 SU, 37-43-2 ATS)
-- The two teams split four meetings
-- Home team won each time, while Pacers won last two matchups
-- The 'over' hit in final three meetings, including twice at Indiana

(4) Brooklyn vs. (5) Chicago

-- Brooklyn (49-33 SU, 39-40-3 ATS)
-- Chicago (45-37 SU, 36-46 ATS)
-- Bulls won season series, 3-1
-- Bulls covered three times, including twice at Brooklyn
-- The 'under' cashed in three of four meetings

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City vs. (8) Houston

-- Oklahoma City (60-22 SU, 49-31-2 ATS)
-- Houston (45-37 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)
-- Thunder won season series, 2-1
-- Thunder covered two of three meetings, including two blowouts at home
-- The 'over' went 3-0 in season series

(2) San Antonio vs. (7) L.A. Lakers

-- San Antonio (58-24 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)
-- Los Angeles (45-37 SU, 34-45-2 ATS)
-- Spurs won season series, 2-1
-- Lakers covered twice, including Sunday's must-win contest at home
-- The 'under' hit all three times

(3) Denver vs. (6) Golden State

-- Denver (57-25 SU, 49-32-1 ATS)
-- Golden State (47-35 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
-- Nuggets won season series, 3-1
-- Nuggets cashed three times, including twice at home
-- The 'over' hit in three of four meetings

(4) L.A. Clippers vs. (5) Memphis

-- Los Angeles (56-26 SU, 45-37 ATS)
-- Memphis (56-26 SU, (46-34-2 ATS)
-- Clippers won season series, 3-1
-- Clippers covered three times, including twice in Memphis
-- The 'under' hit in final three matchups

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoff Notebook

April 18, 2013

Could Favored Heat Go 16-0 in Playoffs? History, Odds Say No

No team in the modern era has run through the playoffs without a loss. Michael Jordan's 1995-96 Bulls, who set the NBA record with 72 regular-season wins, were beaten three times on the way to the championship.

Open an account at Bovada and grab an instant 50% Free Bet Bonus on your first deposit.

The best mark by a recent team was 15-1 by the 2000-01 Lakers of Shaq and Kobe. L.A. rolled through the Western Conference postseason at 11-0 but was upset at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals by the 76ers in overtime. The Lakers won the next four rather easily and had to settle for being the only team to go unbeaten on the road in the postseason.

Thus the Miami Heat would put themselves in the record books this postseason by running the table, and they showed what they are capable of with a 27-game winning streak during the year. However, Miami is given just a +2500 shot on a yes-only prop at Bovada to go unbeaten in these playoffs.

The Heat are 5/8 favorites at the book to repeat as the NBA champions. They begin their best-of-7 opening round matchup against No. 8 Milwaukee as 11.5-point favorites. Miami won three of four regular-season meetings. Milwaukee ended the season losing five of six and the win was in a meaningless game at Oklahoma City in which the Thunder sat Kevin Durant.

*-No. 2 N.Y. Knicks versus No. 7 Boston: New York took three of four against Boston (3-1 ATS) and opened as a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 Saturday. Knicks star Carmelo Anthony ended Durant's reign as the three-time scoring champion, but that's bad news for Knicks futures. The last team to win the title with a scoring champion was the 1999-2000 Lakers with Shaq. The Knicks are 16/1 to do so.

*-No. 3 Indiana versus No. 6 Atlanta: The Hawks slipped from No. 5 to No. 6 by losing their last two games. These teams split four regular-season meetings (2-2 ATS), each winning both at home. The Pacers are seven-point favorites for Game 1 Sunday and 25/1 to win the NBA title.

*-No. 4 Brooklyn versus No. 5 Chicago: Could Derrick Rose make his season debut in the playoffs for the Bulls? No one expects that, but the team hasn't ruled it out. Chicago won three of four meetings (3-1 ATS), but the Nets are five-point favorites for Game 1.

Not Much Confidence in Lakers

The Lakers didn't need to win their finale Wednesday against Houston to make the playoffs as it turned out, but it was a potentially big victory as it got L.A. the No. 7 seed and a better matchup on paper with No. 2 San Antonio instead of Oklahoma City. Still, the Lakers are 40/1 long shots to win the NBA title.

While Kobe Bryant is out for the playoffs, the Lakers hope Steve Nash will be ready for Game 1. He has missed eight straight with a hamstring injury. The Spurs got Manu Ginobili back for the first time Wednesday since March 29 but lost their third-straight game. The Spurs won two of three regular-season meetings (1-2 ATS), are nine-point favorites for the opener and 10/1 to win the West.

No. 1 Oklahoma City versus No. 8 Houston: James Harden faces the team that traded him on the eve of the season as Houston slipped to No. 8 by losing three of their final four. OKC won two of three meetings and didn't score less than 119 points in any game against one of the league's worst defenses. The Thunder are 4/1 to win the NBA title and 10-point Game 1 favorites.

No. 3 Denver versus No. 6 Golden State: The Nuggets, the NBA's highest-scoring team, bring a 23-game home winning streak into Game 1 and were an NBA-best 38-3 there this season. Denver won three of four meetings with the Warriors and is a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1.

No. 4 L.A. Clippers versus No. 5 Memphis: A rematch of last year's first-rounder when the Clippers beat the Grizzlies in seven games. L.A. is the hottest team in the West with a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) and took three of four against Memphis. The Clips are 25/1 to win the West.

Bet on every big shot, swat and dunk with Bovada Live Betting. Raise your game.

[StarDust Bum]

First Round Betting Angles

April 19, 2013


With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs. All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Here’s what the machine has to say…

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the postseason. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year’s 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Golden Trend

The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3 points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking 8 or less points.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Pacers-Hawks Outlook

April 19, 2013


No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Series Price: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Series Format: Indiana, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, Apr. 21
Game 2 - Wednesday, Apr. 24
Game 3 - Saturday, Apr. 27
Game 4 - Monday, Apr. 29
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 1
Game 6* - Friday, May 3
Game 7* - Sunday, May 5

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

Indiana Pacers 49-32 42-39 30-11 19-21 38-42 94.7 90.7

Atlanta Hawks 44-38 37-43 25-16 19-22 42-39 98 97.5
2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total
Nov. 7, 2012 Atlanta (+1) 89 vs. Indiana 86 UNDER 192

Dec. 29, 2012 Atlanta (-2.5) 109 vs. Indiana 100 OVER 182

Feb. 5, 2013 Indiana (-6) 114 vs. Atlanta 103 OVER 184

Mar. 25, 2013 Indiana (-6.5) 100 vs. Atlanta 94 OVER 184.5

Skinny: Both teams limp into the postseason but it’s debatable if that matters. Indiana was basically locked into the No. 3 seed before it dropped five of its last six games. Atlanta tanked its last two games in order to fall to the sixth seed. The thinking had to be that there wasn’t much difference between the Nets and Pacers and in this scenario, the Hawks wouldn’t have to face mighty Miami in a potential second-round matchup. Remember, Atlanta hasn’t made the Eastern Conference finals in franchise history.

Indiana isn’t packing quite the punch it had when it led the Heat 2-1 and had an eight-point halftime lead in Game 4 of last season’s East semifinals. Danny Granger, who has averaged 18.2 points per game during his eight-year career, played only five games this year and remains out due to a knee injury.

However, Granger’s absence has allowed Paul George to become the focus of the offense. George responded with a career year, averaging 17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Veteran power forward David West remains one of the league’s top weapons on the low post, averaging 17.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. George Hill and Roy Hibbert are averaging 14.2 and 11.9 PPG, respectively.

Hibbert is fourth in the NBA in blocked shots, averaging 2.6 rejections per game. Lance Stephenson (8.8 PPG) and Gerald Green (7.0 PPG) provide the Pacers with athleticism off the bench.

Atlanta has been plagued by injuries all year long. Lou Williams, who was averaging 14.1 points and 3.6 assists per game, went down with an ACL tear before the All-Star break. Zaza Pachulia, the veteran big man whose bruising style is made for the postseason, is out for the year with an Achilles injury.

If the Hawks are going to have success in this series, they will need their horses to produce. I’m talking about Al Horford and Josh Smith. Horford enjoyed another banner campaign, averaging 17.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 seals and 1.0 blocked shots per game. Horford is extremely efficient, draining 54.3 percent of his shots from the field.

Smith is most likely making his final appearances in a Hawks uniform. The soon-to-be free agent has had a very solid nine-year run with his hometown organization, but it has been a tortured existence the last few years.

Smith has as much talent as any player in the league. There just aren’t many 6-10 guys that can jump out of the gym, run the floor, penetrate off the dribble and shoot.

On his best nights, Smith scores by getting to (or tearing down) the rim, dishes to open teammates for easy buckets, dominates the boards and saves his teammates on defense by altering shots and blocking others. He can pull down a rebound, dribble the length of the floor and dunk on anyone’s face – and make it look easy.

But on other nights, his shot selection and body language are awful. Going on 3-4 years now, the home crowd at Philips Arena groans every time he misses a jumper from beyond 18 feet out.

There have been feuds with former coach Mike Woodson and current head man Larry Drew. There have been multiple suspensions and trade rumors galore.

To his credit, though, Smith has never been in trouble with the law. I only point that out because it’s not as if Smith is J.R. Rider (or even Michael Vick). He is soft spoken and hides his frustrations with the home crowd (rather than flicking them off like Vick once did) if they even exist.

Smith has indicated that he wants a ‘max contract,’ but GM Danny Ferry isn’t going that route. Unless Smith is a monster in this series, there won’t be a long line of teams ready to pull that trigger, either.

Kyle Korver is second in the NBA in 3-point shooting and he has to rain 3’s for the Hawks to push the Pacers. Jeff Teague and Devin Harris must play well, too.

Head-to-Head Matchups: These teams split the season series with the home team winning outright in four meetings. Atlanta won an 89-86 decision but failed to cover the number as a four-point ‘chalk’ on Nov. 7. Horford scored 16 points and grabbed nine rebounds, while Teague finished with 15 points, six boards, six assists and three steals. Hill and West scored 20 points apiece in the losing effort. The 175 combined points fell ‘under’ the 192-point total.

On Dec. 29 at Philips, the Hawks captured a 109-100 win as 2.5-point home favorites. The 209 combined points soared ‘over’ the 182-point tally. The catalysts for Atlanta were Williams and Pachulia, both of whom won’t be available in this series. Williams had 21 points and 12 assists, while Pachulia produced 17 points and 14 boards. West scored a game-high 29 points for the Pacers.

Indiana beat Atlanta 114-103 as a six-point home favorite on Feb. 5 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. George led seven players in double figures with 29 points. The 217 combined points coasted ‘over’ the 184-point total.

On March 24, the Pacers bested the Hawks 106-100 as 6.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Atlanta outscored Indy 31-15 in the final stanza to post the backdoor cover. The 206 combined points went ‘over’ the 194-point tally. Hibbert paced the winners with 17 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots.

The home team has won outright in nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Betting Notes: When listed as an underdog of six points or more this season, Atlanta has compiled a 5-5 spread record. As for the Pacers, they own a 15-15 spread record in 30 games as favorites of six points or more.

The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run in Indiana’s last eight games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five outings.

Sportsbook.ag has the Pacers with 30/1 odds to win the NBA title. The Hawks have the second-longest odds at 250/1.

Series Outlook: ESPN.com took a poll of 10 of its writers/analysts and each predicted the Pacers to advance. Only one had the series going the seven-game distance.

With the exception of Horford and Teague, none of these Hawks are signed beyond this season. But they are all playing for their next contract(s) and this is the playoffs. Therefore, I expect Atlanta to give a quality effort and that should equate to a competitive series. I think the Pacers advance with a Game 6 victory at The Highlight Factory.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Sportsbook.ag has the Heat as the -180 ‘chalk’ to win the NBA title. The Thunder own the second-shortest odds at +550 (risk $100 to win $550).

--On Thursday, Doug Collins resigned as the head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers. Indeed, the dude has had a hard-luck career. Collins was robbed of a gold medal at the 1972 Olympics. He was a four-time All-Star as a player for the 76ers, but they won the NBA title two years after injuries forced him into retirement. The Bulls didn’t win their NBA championships until the organization forced him out in favor of Phil Jackson. Then last season, Collins was lauded for his work with a young Sixers squad that knocked out the top-seeded Bulls (albeit sans Derrick Rose) in the first round of the playoffs. But when Philadelphia traded for Andrew Bynum this past off-season and then got zero minutes of playing time from him, Collins’s piss-poor luck surfaced once again. Clearly his exit comes from frustration with the move that resulted in a lost season and, unfortunately for Collins, it most likely signals the end of a career that was always successful but never tasted the ultimate prize.

--Also on Thursday, the Cavs fired Byron Scott after three disastrous campaigns that were predictable with LeBron’s exit from Cleveland. Plus, the Pistons handed Lawrence Frank a pink slip.

-- Quote of the Week: After suffering through Tuesday’s TNT games (Raptors-Hawks and Clippers-Trail Blazers), Charles Barkley remarked, “All I’m going to do tomorrow is sit around and watch basketball… I hope they got hi-definition in the club.”

[StarDust Bum]

Heat-Bucks Outlook

April 18, 2013


No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Series Price: Miami -6500, Milwaukee +3500

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, April 21 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 2 - Tuesday, April 23 (7:30 PM EST, NBA TV)
Game 3 - Thursday, April 25 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 4 - Sunday, April 28 (3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Tuesday, April 30 (TBD)
Game 6* - Thursday, May 2 (TBD)
Game 7* - Thursday, May 4 (TBD)

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS

TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

Miami Heat 66-16 46-36 37-4 29-12 42-39-1 102.9 95.0

Milwaukee Bucks 38-44 37-45 21-20 17-24 39-41-2 98.9 100.4

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total

04/09/13 Milwaukee 83 @ Miami 94 (-6.5) UNDER 197.5

03/15/13 Miami 107 (-5.5) @ Milwaukee 94 UNDER 202

12/29/12 Miami 85 @ Milwaukee 104 (+4.5) UNDER 199.5

11/21/12 Milwaukee 106 @ Miami 113 (-9.5) OT OVER 202.5

Skinny: The Heat cruised through to the best record in the regular season with a 66-16 mark, as Miami looks to defend its title. The question for the Heat at this point is not if they will make the Finals again, but in how many games? Miami takes on the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs as Milwaukee qualified with a 38-44 mark.

Since Super Bowl Sunday, Erik Spoelstra's team has lost just twice, while putting together a remarkable 27-game winning streak that stretched from February 3 through March 25. The two defeats in this stretch came to Chicago and New York, two teams the Heat can possibly face in the next two rounds. Miami is currently riding a nine-game hot streak, as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh have each sat out a handful of times in this stretch.

The Bucks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2010, when Milwaukee was bounced in seven games by Atlanta. The task will be significantly tougher this time around, the Bucks stumbled down the stretch by losing 13 of their final 16 games. Due to the mediocrity in bottom of the conference, Milwaukee was able to clinch a playoff berth in spite of this awful stretch. The Bucks' defense allowed at least 100 points in 16 of the final 21 contests, but Milwaukee hit the 'under' in seven of its last nine road games.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Miami captured three of four meetings in the season series, including both at the American Airlines Arena. In late November, the Heat held off the Bucks in overtime, 113-106, as Milwaukee managed to cash as 9 ½-point underdogs. The game was set to finish 'under' the total, but a James layup in the final minute forced overtime, erasing a seven-point deficit with five minutes remaining in regulation. The Heat squandered an early 18-point advantage, but James, Wade, and Bosh combined to score 90 points.

The Bucks dealt the Heat a 19-point whipping on December 29 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center, 104-85 as 4 ½-point home 'dogs. Miami played with no rest following a loss at Detroit, as its legs went out in a 35-14 fourth quarter surge by Milwaukee. The Bucks shot just 40% from the floor, but Brandon Jennings led Milwaukee with 25 points for their fourth win in the past six meetings with the Heat dating back to 2011.

Miami dominated Milwaukee in the final two meetings, including a 107-94 thumping of the Bucks in Wisconsin in mid-March. The Heat limited the Bucks to just 37% shooting, while taking a 16-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the last matchup of the season, Wade and Bosh sat out for Miami, but the Heat cruised to a 94-83 home triumph as 6 ½-point favorites. For the exception of 30 points by Jennings, not one other Buck scored in double-figures.

Betting Notes: The Heat lost just four times at home this season, while posting an 8-8 ATS record at the AAA since the All-Star break. Miami will likely be a double-digit favorite each time at home, as the Heat put together a 7-11 ATS record in that pointspread role. Since the start of February, Miami compiled a solid 9-4 ATS record as road 'chalk,' while winning 17 of its past 18 on the highway.

The Bucks were awful when receiving points at home this season, going 3-7 ATS in 10 opportunities. One of those covers came against the Heat in December, but the scheduling situation favored Milwaukee greatly. As a road 'dog, the Bucks were an average 10-10 ATS since the start of January, while losing nine of the last 10 straight-up away from Wisconsin.

Series Outlook: The Heat will advance to the second round, but will it be a sweep? Since the Big Three came together in 2010-11, Miami has not pulled off a four-game sweep in eight playoff series. This may be the time where the Heat won't mess around and let Brooklyn and Chicago slaughter each other in the 4/5 matchup. Miami moves to the second round with four wins in four games.

[StarDust Bum]

Knicks-Celtics Outlook

April 19, 2013

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics

Series Price: New York -380, Boston +315

Series Format: New York, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 20 (3:00 PM EST, ABC)
Game 2 - Tuesday, April 23 (8:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 3 - Friday, April 26 (8:00 PM EST, ESPN)
Game 4 - Sunday, April 28 (1:00 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 1 (TBD)
Game 6* - Friday, May 3 (TBD)
Game 7* - Sunday, May 5 (TBD)


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

New York Knicks 54-28 46-34-2 31-10 23-18 39-41-2 100.0 95.7

Boston Celtics 41-40 36-42-3 27-13 14-27 42-38-1 96.5 96.7

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total
03/31/13 Boston 89 @ New York 108 (-6.5) UNDER 197.5

03/26/13 New York 100 (+2.5) @ Boston 85 UNDER 194

01/24/13 New York 89 (-1) @ Boston 86 UNDER 189

01/07/13 Boston 102 (+7.5) @ New York 96 OVER 191.5

Skinny: These teams saw each other to open the preseason. They didn't care for each other very much then and certainly won't be holding back any venom now that only one of them can move forward.

If there's a bench-clearing affair to be seen in the first round, it's likely to come here. That Metta World Peace lurks in another potentially physical series out West has been taken into account in that opinion, but there isn't even half as much bad blood between long-time rivals like the Lakers and Spurs as there is here. One of the more memorable images of a season filled with them was Carmelo Anthony waiting around for Kevin Garnett outside where the team buses were parked following the first regular season meeting on Jan. 7. Anthony felt Garnett had crossed the line during in-game verbal jarring and originally went toward Boston's locker room before being restrained by security.

The situation blew over and the teams have faced each other three times since, but you just know the pressure of these playoffs are going to emotions simmering on high. It won't take much to reach full boil. Beyond Anthony and Garnett's beef, there are also known agitators Paul Pierce, Kenyon Martin, Jason Terry and J.R. Smith to watch in a series where head games will be as much of the equation as defensive adjustments.

In fact, Boston's best bet is actually to try and get inside Anthony's head in an effort to add to the enormous pressure he'll be under from long-suffering Knicks fans who expect to get out of the first round for the first time since 2000 and are relying on the franchise's first NBA scoring champion since 1985 (Bernard King) to deliver the goods.

Anthony says he's feeling no pressure, but this series requires him to put the Knicks on his back. The last few weeks have spoiled everyone. He averaged 36.9 points through eight April games to lock up the Atlantic Division and a No. 2 seed, shooting 54 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range. After notching just four double-doubles in New York's first 70 games, Anthony put together six in his last 10 games, demonstrating a drive that has him entering this postseason in beast mode. If he's unable to meet newly inflated expectations, it will be labeled a choke job. Amar'e Stoudemire is unlikely to play in the series. The stage is Melo's alone. No excuses.

Boston coveted the spoiler role here, coasting down the stretch to wind up in seventh once it became apparent the Knicks would finish No. 2. Expectations plummeted when Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, but the Celtics can't afford to wallow given the limited shelf life of Garnett and Pierce. Jeff Green and Courtney Lee have picked up their level of play down the stretch, while Avery Bradley's defense has been effective in helping replace Rondo at the point. With Doc Rivers pushing buttons, the Celtics feel they have a fighting chance in the Eastern Conference's most compelling first-round series.

Head-to-Head Matchups: New York won three of four meetings with the Celtics, but Garnett and Chandler only played twice, missing both March matchups. Rondo was a part of the first Boston loss, Stoudemire also saw time and the teams that will take the court Saturday afternoon will be dramatically different. Chandler and Garnett will match up in the middle coming off plenty of rest. New York's center has played four times since March 14 and has sat since April 7. Garnett has played 70 minutes since March 22, storing energy once it was clear the Celtics would be a playoff team. How both fare and whether they can get back in rhythm while avoiding foul trouble is essential since they will be anchoring the defense and typically expertly patrol the paint.

At the point of attack, Avery Bradley's ability to pressure and harass could spell trouble for Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd, especially with normal starter and deft ball-handler Pablo Prigioni out for Game 1 with an ankle injury. Mike Woodson is likely to find minutes for Iman Shumpert's energy and perimeter defense, while Chris Crawford's late surge could earn him more time. The unheralded rookie could be an x-factor to make Paul Pierce work on the defensive end with Jeff Green likely to be on Melo detail. The Celtics have done a great job forcing Anthony into tough shots in the four meetings, limiting him to sub-.500 shooting every time. He shot 35 percent (36-for-103) from the field, including 9-for-30 from 3-point range. J.R. Smith averaged 20 points per game and participated in all four meetings, but shot just 39 percent against Boston. He'll see plenty of Pierce and Lee.

Betting Notes: Boston swept the last playoff series between these teams in 2011, but with Stoudemire likely a scratch for the duration of it due to is ailing right knee, Anthony, Pierce and Garnett are the only players left from either roster. New York has won three playoff games since its 2000 Eastern Conference finals loss to Indiana, failing to advance to the second round in four appearances. Boston has gotten out of the first round five straight years, but have been the favorite in that opening series each time. The Celtics join No. 8 Milwaukee as the only playoff teams to have a negative scoring margin. The Knicks join only top-seeded Miami as Eastern Conference teams that averaged 100 or more points for the season. New York is sizzling against the number down the stretch, covering nine of their last 11.

Series Outlook: With TNT playing such a large role in playoff coverage, we'll be hearing a lot of "we know drama" tags. This series should fit that billing best of all. Having defeated the Celtics twice at TD Garden this season, the Knicks are confident they can make this series a brief one. Meanwhile, Pierce is the type that relishes Spike Lee's presence and antagonizes the New York crowd by blowing kisses after key buckets. Pushing the Heat the past few years have this Boston nucleus comfortable in an underdog role, so testing the Knicks' will and mental toughness will be key to their approach. If they force Anthony and Smith into sub-40 percent shooting like they did in the regular season and get contributions from the supporting cast, they can win this series. If Melo stays hot and keys a 3-point barrage that makes New York the East's most dangerous team not named the Heat, he'll lift a massive burden off his shoulders. However it goes, this is too juicy a matchup not to want it to go the distance.