The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Cincinnati at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET
Cincinnati: 16-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents
Philadelphia: 1-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders


NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Chicago: 8-1 Over at home off a division game

NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 11-3 ATS off a home win
Atlanta: 30-8 Over off a division road loss

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS off BB losses
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-9 ATS off a home win
St. Louis: 7-0 Under off a SU win

Washington at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Washington: 6-0 ATS off a home game
Cleveland: 9-0 Under in December

Jacksonville at Miami, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 15-5 Over off a home game
Miami: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game

Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Denver: 7-1 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore: 8-0 Over off a loss by 6 points or less

Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 15-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Houston: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

Carolina at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 13-4 Over as an underdog
San Diego: 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Seattle at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 1-14 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Buffalo: 13-5 Over as an underdog

Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-18 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 26-13 ATS at home off 3+ losses

Pittsburgh at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-2 ATS off a SU loss
Dallas: 0-6 ATS off a road win

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 17-6 ATS away off a road loss
Oakland: 6-21 ATS off 3+ games scoring 17 points or less

(TC) San Francisco at New England, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS away in December
New England: 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points


Monday, December 17, 2012

(TC) NY Jets at Tennessee, 8:40 ET ESPN
NY Jets: 12-2 Over off an Under
Tennessee: 2-9 ATS as a favorite

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45 minutes before kickoff:

December 13, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:20 PM Cincinnati -5 1944 59.30% Philadelphia +5 1334

40.70% View View


Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

8:20 PM Cincinnati 45 Philadelphia 1194 49.10% 1238 50.90%

View View

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Thursday, December 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:20 PM ET Philadelphia +5 500

Philadelphia - Under 45 500

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Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 15
This is shaping up as one of the most exciting NFL Sundays of the modern era, with multiple marquee matchups up and down the “Showdown Sunday” schedule. Of course sharps and sports bettors are much more focused on money-making opportunities rather than entertainment opportunities. Let’s see what professional wagerers in Las Vegas have been doing with their money so far for Week 15 in the NFL.

Games are discussed in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.

GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO:
Very little betting interest in this game yet. Green Bay opened at -3 and 42, and is now -3 and 42.5 (with some 43’s out there). So, we have some action on the Over, which tells you_ weather won’t be an issue again despite this being a cold weather city in late December. Sharps would fade any public move one way or the other because they believe three is the right line based on how these teams have been playing lately.

NY GIANTS AT ATLANTA:
Limited interest here as well, though the Giants are a popular choice for two-team teasers in spots where they’re getting +1.5. The six-point adjustment moves NYG past the 3 and the 7 to +7.5. Some stores are considering staying at Atlanta -1 so they don’t have to worry about getting flooded with basic strategy teasers on a quality team. The total has dropped from an opener of 52 to 51, anticipating a playoff atmosphere that would feature conservative play and tight defense.

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS:
Clear Sharp sentiment on the home favorite here even though it’s only a half point move. New Orleans opened at -3, and is now -3.5. We’ve told you often this year that it takes a lot of money to move off the three. If a number moves off a key line, then STAYS there, then you know the Sharp side. No buy back on the Bucs at +3.5. Sharps are happy with their position on the home team -3. Nothing on the total. If we don’t mention the Over/Under in any of the following games, it’s because sharps haven’t expressed an interest.

MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS:
Another quiet game right on the three. St. Louis opened at -3 and stayed there. This is why you can tell New Orleans was such a strong opinion. Neither Green Bay nor St. Louis moved off the key number. New Orleans moved and then locked in higher than the key number. Sharps will fade any public move in this game that could launch the winner to a surprise Wildcard spot if they get some help elsewhere.

WASHINGTON AT CLEVELAND:
There’s been no line all week because of the injury to Robert Griffin III. Washington won’t announce until Sunday whether or not he’s going to play based on most recent reports. Sharps have a number in mind with RGIII and without. They’ll hit the opener if oddsmakers miss the mark. If you want to know who the sharps are betting Sunday morning in this one, follow any moves right after the game goes up. Sharps always act quicker than the public.

JACKSONVILLE AT MIAMI:
Miami opened at -7, and there’s been enough action that we’re now seeing either increased juice on the Dolphins at -7, or line moves to -7.5. Sharps prefer the favorite, and would also like to include Miami in basic strategy teasers because they can move the line down below the 7 and the 3. There are some sharps, though, who think the Jaguars plus anything over the key number of seven offers value. So, there’s a bit of a tug of war going on between the Miami -7 and Jacksonville +7.5 contingents. If the public gets involved, they would likely play Miami at -7 but not -7.5. This is obviously a low priority game in terms of the public’s radar this week…except for squares who always move all favorites down to cheap prices for teasers.

DENVER AT BALTIMORE:
Interesting spot here. Denver opened at -2.5, and stayed there most of the week. When this happens, it typically means sharps like the underdog. Obviously, if they liked the favorite, they would have jumped in beneath the key number for percentage reasons. But, as we’re going to press this morning there are some stores moving up to three. We’re hearing that’s more public-driven than sharp driven…and that sharps will generally be on Baltimore +3 or better if the public backs Peyton Manning. Even if the line solidifies at +2.5 everywhere again, sharps will be on the Ravens in basic strategy two-team teasers. Sharps will be rooting for Baltimore this Sunday in one form or another.

INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON:
Houston opened at -8 despite their poor showing last Monday Night in New England. Sharps who liked Houston acted early, driving the line to -8.5 or -9. Those who prefer the dog are waiting to see what they can get because the public may bet the highly regarded team in a bounce back spot at any price below -10. Sharps would have Houston in two-team teasers at -8 or -8.5, but not at -9 because that moves out of the window. We understand that some stores moved this one up to nine quickly once the sharps committed so that it wouldn’t fall in the teaser window.

CAROLINA AT SAN DIEGO:
Another game sitting solidly on the key number of three. Our discussions suggest sharps generally prefer the dog, which might shade juice in that direction before kickoff. Though, because three’s are so common, sharps would fade any public move off the key number if that happens. In other words, sharps may have a lean toward Carolina at +3, but they would like San Diego -2.5 better simply because three’s are so common in final victory margins. The total has dropped from an opener of 46 down to 45. It’s not a busy week on totals for sharps because weather influences just aren’t happening this year.

SEATTLE VS. BUFFALO (in Toronto):
Seattle opened at -5.5…and it doesn’t take a lot of money to move a game off a tweener number like that. Yet, we’re still sitting at Seattle by 5.5 in this neutral field game as we go to press. Six is a “minor” key number. So, it’s telling that Seattle wasn’t at least driven to the six. We’re hearing that sharps are concerned about peak focus for the Seahawks because a huge game with San Francisco is on deck next week. Sharps would probably take Buffalo at +6 or better if the public moves the line higher Sunday.

DETROIT AT ARIZONA:
Some interest on Detroit at the opener of -6. We’re seeing a few -6.5’s out there. This is tepid interest though because serious backing for the favorite would have yielded an immediate move to at least -6.5, and then probably up to the key number of -7. You’ve seen what happens when sharps really like a favorite. That’s not what’s going on here. We would expect sharp respect to show up for Arizona’s defense if the public moves the line to Detroit by seven before kickoff. Sharps who are taking a flyer on Detroit are in softly at -6. If there’s a “hidden dragon” here, it’s on Arizona getting +7 as a home dog.

PITTSBURGH AT DALLAS:
In most weeks, this would be the biggest public game of the entire weekend. Today it’s overshadowed by a few others. But, the prime placement in the late TV window will still make this a very heavily bet game. Sharps hit Pittsburgh at the opener of +1. We’re now seeing Pittsburgh -1.5 in most stores. That’s not really a big move percentage-wise even with the flipped favorites. Note that Dallas is now in the teaser window, because you can move them up past the 3 and the 7 to +7.5. Sharps will be rooting for Pittsburgh +1 and Dallas +7.5.

KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND:
Our fourth and final game of the day that’s been frozen on three. Oakland is the short home favorite. Sharps will fade any public move. The late schedule is fairly heavy this week, so the public may not be very active in this game. Had there been just three late games, which has been common lately, even an ugly matchup like this would get heavily bet. Sharps did play Over 43 at the opener. We’re now seeing 44 in most places.

SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ENGLAND:
Maybe this is a game the sharps will be betting again several weeks down the road. Is this a Super Bowl preview? Right now, Vegas books have the AFC at -3 over the NFC in the Super Bowl…which you can bet even though the teams aren’t known yet. New England only opened at -4.5 here…which is less than you’d except for the AFC favorite playing on its home field. Sharps bet the Pats to -5.5. Given how the public joined the sharps on New England over Houston last week, we may see a rise once again on game day in this line. We understand sharps would come in on San Francisco at +7 because of their strong defense.

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Packers, Steelers, Patriots Favored In 3 Key Games Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Packers -3, O/U 42
Television: FOX

Green Bay Packers: The NFC North title is on the line when the Pack (9-4 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread) heads to the Windy City with a one-game lead over the Bears and the opportunity to clinch the division with a victory. Green Bay won its second straight with a 27-20 home decision over Detroit last week to take sole command of the NFC North. The Packers were held under 300 yards on offense but still managed to cover the 5½-point line for a second consecutive point-spread triumph and fourth cover in five games. Jordy Nelson, the team's second-leading receiver with 46 catches for 658 yards, missed the Lions game with a hamstring injury and is doubtful for Sunday's tilt in Chicago, but linebacker Clay Matthews is expected to return to action (click to check updated NFL injury report). Green Bay won its fifth straight in this series with a 23-10 home victory in Week 2 as 5½-point chalk, limiting the Bears to 171 yards of offense. The Packers have covered the last four vs. Chicago, a string that started with the 2011 NFC Championship.

Chicago Bears: While the Packers have won two straight, the Bears (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have dropped their last two following a 21-14 defeat last Sunday in Minnesota as 1-point road favorites. The setback was Chicago's fourth in the last five games during a tough stretch on the schedule, each defeat also a loss at the NFL betting window. Quarterback Jay Cutler left the Vikings game with a neck injury after completing 22-of-44 passes and throwing a couple of picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown that proved to be the winning score for Minnesota. Cutler is listed as probable for the matchup with the Packers and is expected to start. The Bears also lost kicker Robbie Gould for the season with a calf injury in the loss to Minnesota, and they have signed Olindo Mare to replace him. Chicago is 7-6 "over" for the season, but this series has gone "under" nine of the last 10 clashes, including the past five played at Soldier Field.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -1, O/U 44
Television: CBS

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (7-6 straight-up, 5-7-1 against the spread) have seen this spread move in their favor even after a bad 34-24 home loss to San Diego last week as 7-point favorites. It was a 34-10 game before two meaningless Pittsburgh touchdowns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (ribs, shoulder) returned after missing three games and struggled early, although he finished with decent numbers (22-of-42 for 285 yards, 3 TDs, one pick). Pitt was badly outgained in time of possession (37-23 minutes) and needs to get the running game going with Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Coach Mike Tomlin’s team is tied for the final AFC playoff spot with Cincy, but he has to be concerned about his defense, which has allowed 24.7 points per game the last three contests with the "over" going 3-0 compared to 15 ppg the prior five with the "under" going 5-0.

Dallas Cowboys: Dallas (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) is also in the NFC playoff hunt, but in a much more precarious position than Pittsburgh. Coach Jason Garrett’s guys have won four of five, but they have been living dangerously with fourth-quarter comebacks in the last three victories. Quarterback Tony Romo could be without leading receiver Dez Bryant (1,028 yards), as he has a broken finger but has vowed to play. His absence would be a big blow as the running game is still pretty quiet even with DeMarco Murray (foot) returning two games ago. Dallas is a terrible 0-6 ATS (3-3 SU) at Cowboys Stadium this year. The defense has allowed a whopping 30.8 ppg the last five at home with the "over" going 4-1. The rivalry between the Steelers and Cowboys is famous for the three Super Bowl matchups, but they have played each other just twice since 1997, both Pittsburgh wins and covers.

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San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pats -4½, O/U 49
Television: NBC

San Francisco 49ers: Coach Jim Harbaugh and the Niners (9-3-1 straight-up, 8-5 against the spread) face their second consecutive AFC East opponent, and one that should present a greater challenge than the Dolphins a week ago. San Francisco's defense had little problem stifling the Miami attack in the 27-13 win, limiting the Fins to 227 total yards to grab the cover as 11-point home chalk. It was the third win and cover for the 49ers in their last four games, and the final just skipped past the 38½-point mark for the fourth "over" in five contests. San Fran's stop unit ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 275.5 yards per contest, but will now be up against the league's top-ranked offense in New England (425.7 ypg). One injury concern for the Niners is WR Mario Manningham, who is questionable with a shoulder issue (click to check updated NFL injury report). San Francisco has won six of the last nine vs. the Patriots but covered just one of the last five.

New England Patriots: A 42-14 dismantling of the Texans last week has the Pats (10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) riding a seven-game winning streak into this matchup with the 49ers. New England built a 28-0 lead early in he third quarter as Tom Brady picked apart the Houston defense with four touchdown passes to easily cover the 5½-point spread. Brady is tied with Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III for the top passer rating in the league at 104.2. A late score by the Texans sent the game past the 50½ mark, making the "over" 6-1 in the last seven for the Patriots. It was the third time in four games that New England scored at least 42 points, and fifth time this season to boost the team's average to an NFL-best 36.3 ppg, more than a touchdown per game better than Denver's 28.8, which ranks second. The Patriots have won the last three meetings with San Francisco, covering each time. Four of the last five in this series have remained "under" the total.

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NFL Week 15 Preview: Giants at Falcons

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-5)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (11-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -2, Total: 50.5

Following a thorough beatdown in Carolina last week, Atlanta looks to get back on track Sunday when it returns home to face a Giants team that also crushed them the last time these clubs met.

The Falcons suddenly look very shaky after getting manhandled at Carolina. They still own the best SU record in the NFC, but they’re just 1-3-1 ATS over their past five contests. New York is hoping this will be a replay of its playoff matchup with the Falcons at home last January. The Giants were in Matt Ryan’s face all day in that game, holding the Falcons to 247 yards in a lopsided 24-2 victory, their fourth straight win in this series by a combined score of 116 to 57. New York has clearly snapped out of its offensive slump, averaging 35.3 PPG over three games since its bye week, but they could be without top RB Ahmad Bradshaw who is questionable with a knee injury. The G-Men have also forced seven turnovers over those three games.

Which elite NFC team will prevail on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

New York QB Eli Manning has been outstanding since the bye week, throwing for 788 yards (8.0 YPA), 8 TD and just 2 INT in the three games. He has also loved playing against Atlanta in his career, throwing for 1,144 yards (286 YPG), 10 TD and 5 INT in the past four meetings, all Giants victories. In last year's playoffs, Manning completed 23-of-32 passes for 277 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Two of those went to Hakeem Nicks, who finished the day with 115 receiving yards. Nicks still isn't close to 100 percent because of his lingering knee injury, as he has not reached 80 yards in a game since Week 2. His teammate Victor Cruz is finishing the year strong though, catching 16 passes for 261 yards and 2 TD over the past three games. Atlanta's pass defense is just average, allowing 235 passing YPG (16th in NFL). If Bradshaw cannot start, the Giants will rely on rookie David Wilson to carry the workload. Wilson is coming off his best game of the season, compiling a team-record 327 all-purpose yards with three touchdowns in the 52-27 win over New Orleans. He rushed for 100 yards and 2 TD on just 13 carries (7.7 YPC) last Sunday, and now he has the good fortune of facing another poor defense, as the Falcons rank 23rd in run defense (127 YPG).

Ryan has thrown a whopping 87 passes in his two career meetings with New York, but completed just 50 of those throws (58% completion pct.) for a paltry 5.4 YPA. However, the Giants are a horrible pass defense, allowing 253 YPG (sixth-most in NFL), and their pass rush has been shaky with one sack or less in three of the past four games. If they can't put pressure on Ryan, he will have a field day throwing to WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones. White has gained 604 yards with 4 TD in six games at Georgia Dome this year while Jones had 77 total yards in last year's playoff loss in New York. TE Tony Gonzalez caught eight passes last week, but he hasn't scored a touchdown versus a team besides the Saints since Week 5. Atlanta's running game has been suspect this year (87 YPG, 5th-fewest in NFL), gaining just 68 rushing YPG in the past five games. But the Giants rushing defense isn't good either, ranking 22nd in the NFL with 123 rushing YPG allowed. One thing New York does very well

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NFL Week 15 Preview: Packers at Bears

GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-4)

at CHICAGO BEARS (8-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 42

Surging Green Bay looks to wrap up the NFC North with another win over struggling Chicago on Sunday at Soldier Field.

The Packers have beaten the Bears five in a row SU and four straight ATS. When these teams met in Week 2, the Packers held Chicago to just 168 yards of offense, intercepted Jay Cutler four times and sacked him seven times in a 23-10 win. Chicago will be without LB Brian Urlacher, but it appears that Cutler (neck) will be able to start. The Bears are 1-4 (SU and ATS) in their past five games having just gotten knocked off 21-14 at Minnesota. The Packers have had protection issues, but have managed to patch their line well enough to win seven of their past eight games, including two in a row. Although WR Jordy Nelson (hamstring) is out, star LB Clay Matthews Jr. (hamstring) is expected to return to the field for the first time since Week 9.

Who will win this NFC North showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Rodgers failed to throw a touchdown in last week's 27-20 win over Detroit, marking the first TD-less game he's had since Week 3. Rodgers did run for a score though. For the season, he has thrown for 3,297 yards (254 YPG), 29 TD and 8 INT. In the Week 2 win over Chicago, he completed 22-of-32 passes for 219 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he took five sacks. Although Rodgers won't have the services of Nelson, he still has three great receivers to throw to in Randall Cobb (team-high 777 rec. yds), James Jones (team-best 9 rec. TD) and Greg Jennings, who finally appears to be healthy. Jennings has been outstanding in his past three meetings versus Chicago (21 catches, 346 yards), which includes the 2011 NFC Championship at Soldier Field. The Bears do have an excellent pass defense though, allowing just 206 YPG, good for 6th-best in the NFL. Chicago's run defense has been suspect though, allowing more than 110 rushing yards in each of the past seven games (141 rush YPG) including back-to-back 170-yard games. This could be an area of trouble, as the Packers ground game has picked up the pace, averaging 136 rushing YPG in the past five contests. Although Chicago has the most takeaways in the NFL (35), the team has forced just five turnovers over the past four weeks, and Green Bay has only one multi-giveaway game in the past nine contests.

Cutler is not having a great year, posting an 80.9 passer rating with just 2,495 yards (208 per game), 16 TD and 13 INT. But his pass protection has been better in his past four games, where he's taken just three sacks, a huge improvement from the 28 sacks suffered in the first eight games of the year (3.5 per game). He continues to rely heavily on WR Brandon Marshall who already has 101 catches for 1,342 yards and 9 TD, piling up two straight 160-yard efforts. But Week 2 was the only game he failed to either score a touchdown or gain 70 yards, as the Packers held him to two catches for 24 yards. Chicago ranks a woeful 27th in passing offense (193 YPG), but has the ninth-best rushing offense in the league with 122 YPG and eight games of 110+ rushing yards. With Michael Bush (ribs) questionable, Matt Forte may have to take on a bigger workload than usual. Forte (834 rush yds) ran for 85 yards on just 13 carries (6.5 YPC) in Minnesota last week, but has not enjoyed facing Green Bay in his career, rushing for a mere 466 yards over nine games (52 YPG) with just 1 TD and 3.5 yards per carry. The Packers defense has been average this season, allowing 117 rushing YPG (15th in NFL) and 235 passing YPG (17th in league). The team had hoped S Charles Woodson (collarbone) would return for this showdown, but he is now expected to miss Sunday's game.

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NFL Week 15 Preview: Steelers at Cowboys

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (7-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -1.5, Total: 44

Two storied franchises meet for a game with major playoff implications for both conferences when Pittsburgh visits Dallas on Sunday.

The Cowboys have won four of five, but they have to once again try to figure things out at home. They are 3-3 SU at Cowboys Stadium but have failed to cover in any of those six games (0-6 ATS). Playing with heavy hearts after the DUI that killed practice squad LB Jerry Brown and landed DT Josh Brent in prison, Dallas gutted out a win in Cincinnati last week, overcoming a nine-point deficit with less than seven minutes to play. The Steelers are coming off a terrible home loss to San Diego, losing despite getting Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup. While Roethlisberger was rusty (22-of-42, 285 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT), it was a lack of playmaking from the defense that did them in against the Chargers. Pittsburgh’s pass rush will have to take advantage of the Cowboys’ weak offensive line to win this.

Can the Cowboys stay hot with a big home win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Roethlisberger has quietly had a great season with a 98.6 passer rating. He's completed 65% of his passes for 2,572 yards, 20 TD and 5 INT in his 10 games. His return under center was just what top WR Mike Wallace needed, as he caught seven passes for 112 yards and 2 TD in the loss to San Diego. Wallace now has eight touchdown grabs for the season. One receiver that is looking to get back on track is Antonio Brown, who averaged 88.4 yards per game in Weeks 1-7, but has just 150 yards (37.5 per game) in his past four contests. TE Heath Miller leads the Steelers with 61 catches, and his 679 yards and 7 TD rank second among his teammates. But with Dallas having a strong pass defense (218 YPG, 8th in NFL), Pittsburgh might want to try running the football on a mediocre run-stop unit (119 rush YPG, 16th in NFL) that has allowed 471 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) over the past three games. However, the Steelers have only 71 rushing YPG (3.4 YPC) in their past three contests and just 99 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) for the season. With Rashard Mendenhall suspended for this game, Jonathan Dwyer (510 rush yds, 4.2 YPC) and Isaac Redman (350 rush yds, 3.6 YPC) will be the main backs on Sunday. Pittsburgh continues to turn the football over at an alarming rate, with 16 giveaways in the past four games, but the Cowboys have just four takeaways in their past four games.

Like Pittsburgh, Dallas is a great passing team (292 YPG, 3rd in NFL), but has a terrible ground game (80 rush YPG, 2nd-fewest in league). RB DeMarco Murray is finally back healthy, but he has gained just 136 yards on 44 carries (3.1 YPC) in the past two games. He's now facing Pittsburgh's fifth-ranked run defense (93 rush YPG). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has thrown for a whopping 347 YPG in his six home games, but has tossed 12 INT and taken 20 sacks (4 INT, 11 sacks on road). He'll have to be more careful with the football against a Steelers defense that not only leads the NFL with 169 passing YPG allowed, but should have the services of three big playmakers on Sunday -- S Troy Polamalu (calf) and LBs James Harrison (illness) and LaMarr Woodley (ankle). Pittsburgh's secondary is depleted though with CB Ike Taylor (ankle) out and DBs Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen both questionable with hip flexor ailments. Romo may also be missing his top receiver in Dez Bryant who broke his left index finger last week and is officially listed as questionable. He says he will play, but expect both WR Miles Austin (819 rec. yds, 5 TD) and TE Jason Witten (92 rec, 880 yds, 1 TD) to be seeing even more targets than usual.

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NFL Week 15 Preview: Broncos at Ravens

DENVER BRONCOS (8-5)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -3, Total: 48

Sizzling-hot Denver puts its eight-game win streak on the line when it visits Baltimore on Sunday afternoon.

The Ravens are in trouble, losing two straight, and getting beat by back-up quarterbacks both times. Now they face MVP favorite Peyton Manning, who has beaten them eight straight times when he was with the Colts. The Broncos had some issues in the red zone last week, scoring only 26 in Oakland, but they’re still averaging 29.8 PPG and 402.6 YPG over their past 10 games (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS). The good news for Baltimore is that its offense will now be run by new OC Jim Caldwell, Manning's former head coach, who will use a lot of hurry-up sets. The Ravens could also have LB Ray Lewis (triceps) back in the lineup for the first time since Week 6, and possibly LB Terrell Suggs (biceps) on the field as well. Baltimore sure needs them, considering it has allowed 400-plus yards in four of its past eight games. Manning will be only the second top quarterback the Ravens have seen this year; Tom Brady and the Patriots scored 30 in Baltimore in September.

Who will win this battle of AFC giants? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning's numbers during the eight-game ride are pretty impressive: 70% completions, 2,313 yards (289 YPG), 19 TD, 7 INT. He has also been excellent in his past eight starts versus the Ravens, throwing for 2,022 yards (253 YPG), 14 TD and 6 INT in these eight victories. And usually Baltimore has a top-notch defense, but this year's injury-depleted unit allows 376 total YPG (9th-most in NFL). A big reason for Manning's success this year has been the playmaking ability of Demaryius Thomas, who entered this week fifth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,197), second in 20-yard gains (23) and third in Yards After Catch (448). Teammate Eric Decker's 790 receiving yards and 8 TD have also been a huge help. Although the Broncos rank 20th in the NFL in rushing offense, they have found great success since Knowshon Moreno has taken over for injured Willis McGahee. Moreno has carried the football 72 times over the past three games, gaining 273 yards (3.8 YPC) on the ground plus another 88 yards through the air. He should be able to find holes in Baltimore's 25th-ranked run defense (130 YPG). The one Achilles heel for Denver's offense has been turnovers, as it has committed 23 turnovers this season. The Ravens are certainly capable of making plays, piling up 12 takeaways over the past six games.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was rumored to have clashed with ousted offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, so he should be much more comfortable under Caldwell, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach. Caldwell is expected to implement a faster pace of offense, similar to the first three games of the season when Flacco led his team to 98 points. He has been considerably better at home this season (100.7 rating, 8.7 YPA, 11 TD, 4 INT) than on the road (75.3 rating, 5.9 YPA, 7 TD, 5 INT), and has also been solid in two career starts versus Denver, completing 34-of-50 passes for 371 yards (7.4 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT in two lopsided wins (30-7 in 2009 and 31-17 in 2010). Flacco's top WR Torrey Smith has also been much better in Baltimore (19.3 yds per catch, 6 TD) than on the road (15.8 YPC, 1 TD), but he'll likely be staring across the line of scrimmage at shutdown corner Champ Bailey for most of the afternoon. That could allow WR Anquan Boldin to continue his hot stretch of 159 receiving yards and 3 TD over the past two games. Denver's defense is solid throughout though, allowing just 216 passing YPG (7th in NFL) and 94 rushing YPG (6th in league). But Ravens RB Ray Rice has run roughshod over this defense in two career meetings, rumbling for 217 yards (4.3 YPC) and three touchdowns. The Ravens protect the ball very well, especially at home where they have totaled five giveaways in six games. But Denver has produced 39 sacks (T-2nd in NFL) and forced nine turnovers in the past five games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 15 Preview: 49ers at Patriots

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-3-1)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -5, Total: 46.5

San Francisco tries to hand New England a rare December home loss when the teams meet Sunday night in Foxboro.

This will be a matchup of arguably the NFL’s best offense and best defense. The Niners have held their past four opponents under 300 yards of offense. They’re 3-1, SU and ATS, since inserting Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback. The Patriots are coming off a 42-14 hammering of Houston, marking their seventh straight victory and 13th straight win in December. But they’ll have a short week to prepare for Kaepernick. They have had issues against the NFC West, getting upset by Arizona and Seattle this season, but the Pats have now won 20 straight December home games.

Who will win this battle of elite NFL teams? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Kaepernick has completed 69% of his passes with a 100.1 passer rating as a starter, and has added 174 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Although San Francisco likes to pound the football, it will certainly allow Kaepernick to use his arm against New England's 29th-ranked passing defense surrendering 276 YPG through the air. WR Michael Crabtree has 25 more catches (66) than any other teammate, and TE Vernon Davis creates huge matchup problems with 5 TD and 11 gains of 20+ yards this season. However, San Francisco's strength is running the football where it averages 162 rushing YPG and 5.3 yards per carry, both which rank second in the NFL. Frank Gore has carried the football more than 200 times (211) for the seventh straight season, averaging a healthy 4.9 YPC and scoring seven touchdowns. The Patriots do have a strong run defense though, allowing just 101 rushing YPG this season (8th in NFL). But they are also reliant on making big plays, as New England leads the AFC with 34 forced turnovers this season. The Niners rarely make mistakes though, with just 12 giveaways all season. Only the Patriots (10 giveaways) have fewer miscues in the entire NFL.

The big news in New England is that TE Rob Gronkowski (broken forearm) is practicing, and has a slim chance of playing on Sunday night for the first time since Week 11. But even if he doesn't suit up, the Pats have plenty of very capable receivers (WRs Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd, and TE Aaron Hernandez) to catch passes from the sizzling Tom Brady. New England's star signal caller has completed 63% of his passes for 1,988 yards (284 YPG), 19 TD and just 1 INT during his team's seven-game win streak. A big part of his success is due to an offensive line that isn't letting him be touched very often. Brady has taken just seven sacks in these seven games, four of which came in Miami. However, the 49ers have the best pass rusher in football in DE Aldon Smith, who leads the league with 19.5 sacks. Although the Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in passing offense, they are also extremely capable of running the football with 140 YPG (7th in league). RB Stevan Ridley has 1,082 rushing yards and 10 TD, but the 49ers give up just 91 rushing YPG and 185 passing YPG, numbers which both rank second in the NFL.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 15 Preview: Jets at Titans

NEW YORK JETS (6-7)

at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-9)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -2, Total: 41.5

The Jets look to get back to .500 and remain alive in the playoff race when they visit Tennessee on Monday night.

This might be the least appealing matchup in Monday Night Football history, but the Jets are going to be playing hard, as they’re still entertaining playoff hopes. They’ve won back-to-back games, albeit against bottom-feeders Arizona (not a cover) and Jacksonville, but scored only 24 total points in those wins. The Titans, meanwhile, have crashed and burned. They’re just 1-3 SU and ATS since getting QB Jake Locker back in the lineup, and Locker has posted a 60.8 passer rating with seven interceptions during Tennessee’s current three-game losing streak. The Jets are 5-1 SU (6-0 ATS) versus the Titans since 1998, with the last meeting coming in 2009, a 24-17 New York victory.

Will the Jets be able to win for the fourth time in five games? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Jets have totaled just 559 yards (216 through the air) during their two-game win streak. QB Mark Sanchez has completed just 22-of-40 passes (5.2 YPA) with 3 INT over these two victories. For the season, Sanchez has the third-worst passer rating (71.8) among all qualified passers, throwing for just 6.5 YPA, 12 TD and 13 INT. New York is hoping newly-signed WR Braylon Edwards will help Sanchez get back on track. Edwards caught 53 passes for 904 yards and 7 TD in his final season with the Jets in 2010, and should be ready to play after being claimed off waivers from Seattle earlier in the week. The Titans have allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league (251 YPG), so the potential is there for a Jets passing resurgence. New York may just stick to running the football though, as the Titans give up 127 rushing YPG (24th in NFL). But even though the Jets have 147 rushing YPG in their past four contests, the Titans have limited their past four opponents to just 94 rushing YPG. The Jets RB duo of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell has combined for 317 rushing yards during the two-game win streak. New York needs to take better care of the football to win this game, as it has committed 11 turnovers in the past three games.

Locker has struggled with his accuracy since his return, but he is running very well with 89 yards on just eight carries in the past two games. The Titans may try some trick plays in an effort to penetrate New York's defense allowing just 29 points in its past three wins combined. They will also look to throw deep to dynamic WR Kenny Britt who is coming off a season-high eight catches for 143 yards in the 27-23 loss at Indianapolis. Locker will not have the team's second-leading receiver in TE Jared Cook (44 catches), who is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. The Jets rank third in the NFL in passing defense (196 YPG), but have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the league at 137 YPG. That could equal a huge day for Tennessee RB Chris Johnson who has rushed for 827 yards (5.5 YPC) and 4 TD in his past eight games.

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16

Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.138; Chicago 138.833
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 305-306: NY Giants at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.551; Atlanta 140.528
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 307-308: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.326; New Orleans 132.828
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over

Game 309-310: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.974; St. Louis 135.615
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-1); Over

Game 311-312: Washington at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 135.157; Cleveland 131.638
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 313-314: Jacksonville at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.161; Miami 119.081
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 7; 37
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over

Game 315-316: Denver at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.882; Baltimore 138.990
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under

Game 317-318: Indianapolis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 129.230; Houston 140.439
Dunkel Line: Houston by 11; 45
Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Carolina at San Diego (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.645; San Diego 130.390
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

Game 321-322: Seattle at Buffalo (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 138.522; Buffalo 129.411
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 39
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Under

Game 323-324: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.120; Arizona 125.470
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6); Over

Game 325-326: Pittsburgh at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.619; Dallas 134.881
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2); Under

Game 327-328: Kansas City at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.761; Oakland 122.374
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

Game 329-330: San Francisco at New England (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.793; New England 150.743
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 16

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GREEN BAY (9 - 4) at CHICAGO (8 - 5) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 148-107 ATS (+30.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (8 - 5) at ATLANTA (11 - 2) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (7 - 6) at ST LOUIS (6 - 6 - 1) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 92-125 ATS (-45.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 11) at MIAMI (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (10 - 3) at BALTIMORE (9 - 4) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 4) at HOUSTON (11 - 2) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (8 - 5) vs. BUFFALO (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 52-80 ATS (-36.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (4 - 9) at ARIZONA (4 - 9) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 6) at DALLAS (7 - 6) - 12/16/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DALLAS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 11) at OAKLAND (3 - 10) - 12/16/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-67 ATS (-37.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 3 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 3) - 12/16/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-67 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15


Packers (9-4) @ Bears (8-5)— Bears are 5-2 at home, and division lead is at stake here, but these are two teams going in opposite directions. Green Bay (-6) beat Bears 23-10 in Week 2 Thursday nighter, picking off four passes, holding Cutler to 11-27/74 passing; it was 7th win in last eight meetings in this ancient rivalry. Pack won three of last four visits here, winning 21-14/27-17 in last two. Pack won seven of last eight games, taking three of last four on road after losing first two away games- they’re 6-5 as favorites this year, 2-2 on road; since ’07, they’re 16-12 as road favorites, 9-4 in divisional games. GB ran ball for 152-140 yards last two weeks, converted 14-27 on 3rd down. Chicago is now 7-16 without Urlacher; they’ve lost four of last five games overall, allowing 176-171 rushing yards last two weeks. NFC North home favorites are 4-3 vs the spread. Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)—Giants are 8-0 when they score 26+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; would expect strong effort for hosts after they got pasted at Carolina last week. Atlanta allowed 30+ points in both losses, but held six of last nine opponents to 20 or less points; they’re 6-0 at home, with five of six wins by 6 or less points. Falcons were held under 80 yards rushing in four of last five games; would expect them to try and run it here more (Giants allowed 207-142 rushing yards last two games). Giants are 3-3 on road, scoring 13-16 points in last two (two offensive TD’s on 20 drives)- they’re +5 in turnovers last three weeks, +16 for season. Big Blue whacked Atlanta 24-2 in LY’s playoffs, fourth straight series win (average score 29-14); Giants won last seven visits to Atlanta (last here in ’04), with last loss here at old Fulton County Stadium in ’78. Four of last five Giant games, three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total. Underdogs are 13-4 vs spread in NFC East non-divisional road tilts. NFC South home teams are 6-11 against spread out of their division.

Buccaneers (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)—Both teams lost last three games, as playoff hopes slip away; Saints (-1.5) escaped Tampa with 35-28 back in Week 7, when Bucs’ tying TD on last play was waved off because WR stepped OB earlier on his route. Bucs outgained NO 513-458 that day; Freeman was 24-42/415 passing. This season series has split in each of last four years; Bucs are 3-2 in last five visits here. Tampa is 5-2 as underdogs this year, 3-0 on artificial turf; they’ve won three of last four road games SU. Saints allowed 35.3 ppg last three weeks; they’ve won three of last four home games, covered last four games as a favorite (4-3 for year). Brees threw nine picks in last three games, as -6 turnover ratio in those games doomed playoffs chances on Bourbon Street. NO had 30-yard disadvantage in field position last week, which doesn’t count KR they allowed for TD. NFC South home teams are 5-3 vs spread. Three of last four Tampa games stayed under total; four of Saints’ last five games went over.

Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)—St Louis is getting most out of team with limited offense, winning last three games despite scoring three offensive TDs (defense also scored three); Fisher’s spunky bunch is 6-1 vs spread this year in games with spread of 4 or less points. Rams are 4-2 at home, 0-1 as favorites; their home wins are by 3-6-14-3 points. Since 2004, Rams are just 8-18 vs spread as home favorites. Minnesota is 1-5 on road, 1-3 as road dogs; they didn’t scored offensive TD (had two return TD’s) in only road win, 20-13 at Detroit in Week 4. Since 2008, Vikings are 10-15-1 as road dogs. Vikes are 2-3 in five visits here, with coming in ’09; average total in last eight series games, 57.1. NFC West home favorites are 6-4 vs spread. NFC North road dogs are 1-5. Last three Minnesota games stayed under; five of last seven Ram games went over (last two stayed under). Rams are 4-2 SU (5-1 vs spread) when game stayed under, 2-4-1 SU (4-3 vs spread) when it goes over.

Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)—Health of RGIII (knee) key issue here, since rookie Cousins gets first NFL start if Griffin can’t go. Washington won/covered last four games, beating three division rivals and regional rival Ravens, with Cousins leading tying drive in last minute last week. Skins are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with five of six games going over total- their road losses are by 3-4-15 points. Redskins averaged 168.2 rushing ypg in last five games, but lot of that was RGIII’s mobility on read option plays- Cousins won’t be doing that. Browns gave up 80-yard run on first play last week but then blanked Chiefs rest of way- they’re 2-0 vs spread as favorites this year (last two games). Cleveland won/covered its last three games, allowing 12.7 ppg (4 TD’s on 36 drives); they won four of last five games, are 5-3 SU since 0-5 start. NFC East road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread. AFC North home favorites are 5-7. Under is 6-0-1 in Browns’ last seven games.

Jaguars (2-10) @ Dolphins (5-8)— Miami lost five of last six games after 4-3 start; only two of its five wins are by more than 4 points. Dolphins are 0-3 as favorites this year; since ’03, they’re 8-33 vs spread as a home favorite. Yes, 8-33. Jax is 5-1 vs spread on road, despite winning only one of six games; their road losses are by 3-3-9-6-16 points; only win was 22-17 at Indy, when they hit 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00. Only non-cover was 34-18 at Buffalo in last road game, two weeks ago. Jags are just 3-26 on 3rd down in last two years; they’ve been outsacked 14-2 last three games. Home team lost last three series games, with average total 30.7; Jaguars won 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Dolphin games, 1-3 in Jaguars’ last four road games. In fairness, Miami’s last three games were vs Seattle-49ers-Patriots, three playoff teams, but hard to endorse them laying seven points. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home.AFC South underdogs are 11-12, 6-7 on the road.

Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)—A winning team firing its OC on December 10, after game where Ravens scored 28 points, but defense gave up tying score in last minute? All is not well in Baltimore, where eight of 13 Raven games were decided by 3 or less points. New OC Caldwell (former Colt coach) has never called plays at this level, bad news vs Denver team that won its last eight games (6-2 vs spread) after 2-3 start vs brutal schedule. Broncos are 5-2 SU on road, 3-1 vs spread as road favorites. Ravens are 5-1 at home, losing only to rival Steelers; they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year. Since 2003, they’re 5-7 as home dogs, but this is first time since ’09 they’re in that role. Denver kept four of last five opponents under 75 rushing yards; curious to see how Ravens’ offense is different this week. Five of six Raven home games went over total, as did six of last nine Denver games. You knew Ravens had issues when they split pair of 3-point decisions with Big Ben-less Steelers.

Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)—Storybook Colts won three in row, seven of last eight games; seven of their nine wins are by 4 or less points, or in OT. Three of their four losses are by 20+ points. Indy is just 2-3 as road underdogs this year; that includes wild 35-33 comeback win over Lions (two TDs in last 2:39) two weeks ago. Short week for hosts after Monday night debacle in Foxboro; they crushed the Ravens week after their first loss. Since ’09, Houston is 12-10-1 vs spread in game following a loss. Texans are 4-2 as home favorites, losing to Packers, winning at home by 20-24-30-12-6 points. Indy has three return TDs in last five games, but 18 of their last 21 offensive TDs came on drives of 74+ yards. Houston clinches division with win here, could blow #1 seed in AFC with loss; they’re 3-17 all-time vs Indy, but won last two meetings here, 34-24/34-7. AFC South home teams are 2-7 against spread, 1-4 when favored. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.

Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)—Carolina coach Rivera came to Panthers from San Diego; now both staffs are likely to be unemployed in three weeks. Panthers split last six games after 1-5 start; they won two of last three road games, covered four of last five- their road losses are by 6-2-1-6 points. As bad as they are, Carolina was favorite in three of first six road games- they’re 3-0 as road underdogs. San Diego had unlikely win at Pittsburgh last week; hard to tell how much of a carrot potential 8-8 finish is to players. Chargers lost four of last five home games, scoring one offensive TD on last 22 home drives- they’re 4-3 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home, Since 2010, Bolts are 10-8 as home favorites. Home side lost three of four in seldom-played series; Panthers won both visits here, 26-7/26-24. NFC South road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread. AFC West favorites are 6-5 against spread, 4-3 at home. 7 of last 10 San Diego games, four of last five Carolina games went over the total.

Seahawks (8-5) vs Bills (5-8) (Toronto)—Seattle heads to Canada winners in four of last five games, but they’re 2-5 on road, winning 16-12 (+3) at 4-9 Carolina in Week 5, 23-17 (OT, +3) at skidding Bears two weeks ago. All seven Seahawks road games were decided by 7 or less points. Marshawn Lynch will be fired up to run pigskin against his old team; Seattle ran ball for 176-284 yards last two weeks. Bills held last four opponents under 90 rushing yards- their goal here has to do same with Lynch and make rookie QB Wilson beat them passing, which he hasn’t been that good at on road, averaging 17 ppg on road (21-23 in last two away games). Buffalo lost five of last seven games after hopeful 3-3 start; they blanked Redskins in Toronto LY, snapping 3-game skid north of border. Bills are 2-5 vs spread as underdog this year; they’re 11-16-3 vs spread in last 30 games vs NFC teams. Five of last six Seattle games went over total; only one of Buffalo’s last four games did. Average total in last seven series games is 47.6. NFC West favorites are 8-6; AFC East underdogs are 8-8.

Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)—Detroit tied NFL record last week by losing third game in row, when they led by 10+ points in all three games; good news is they led by 10+ points- if they get up 10 on Arizona, how can inept Redbirds come back? Cardinals do not have NFL-level QB on their roster; they were down 38-0 at half last week in Seattle, their ninth loss in row after 4-0 start. Arizona has five TDs on last 78 drives, while allowing five return TDs during same span- they’re 5-4 vs spread as a dog this year, and are 3-3 SU at home. Lions lost five games in row, allowing 32 ppg in last three- they’re 2-5 on road, winning by 3 at Philly, 17 at Jax’ville. Detroit is 2-5 as favorite this year; over last 11 years, they’re 2-6-2 vs spread when favored on foreign soil. Lions lost last five visits to desert; their only win here was in ’93. Seems like long time ago (Week 2) Arizona beat the Patriots in Foxboro. NFC North favorites are 10-13 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West underdogs are 13-6 vs spread, 4-1 at home. If you wager on this game, report directly to your nearest GA meeting.

Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)—Dallas is 2-6 vs spread when favored this year, 0-5 at home; since start of 2010, they’re 3-16 vs spread as a home favorite, but they’ve won three of last four games overall, despite being outscored 71-23 in first half of those games. Dallas scored average of 23.4 ppg, just in second half of last five games. Free-falling Steelers (lost three of last four games) allowed Chargers to convert 12-22 on 3rd down last week in ugly 34-24 home loss (San Diego had converted 10 of previous 43 3rd downs coming in). Pittsburgh ran ball for 71.3 ypg last three weeks; even Big Ben’s return didn’t help. Underdogs covered last six Steeler games; Pitt is 3-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 12-3-3-6 points. Teams split 30 series games, but Steelers won last two 24-20/20-13, and won two of three Super Bowl meetings, but they’ve lost seven of last nine visits here. Four of last five Dallas home games went over the total. NFC East home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-8 against the spread, 3-6 on foreign soil.

Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)—Never thought I’d see day where these two teams are among NFL’s worst. Visitors won 10 of last 11 series games; Chiefs won eight of last nine visits here, but lost nine of last 10 games overall, losing last four away games by 28-18-3-23 points. KC is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, after being 21-14-1 from 2007-11. Oakland lost last six (0-6 vs spread) games, scoring 13.3 ppg in last three games; they’re 0-3 as favorites this year; since 2003, they’re 8-22 vs spread when favored at home. Raiders’ wins this year are by 3-10-3 points, so difficult to lay FG. Chiefs’ offense is horrific, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six games; they’ve scored six TDs on last 61 drives. Last three Oakland games, four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under the total. Road teams covered six of nine AFC West divisional games; home favorites are 2-3. Much like the Detroit-Arizona game, not much to choose from here.

49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)—New England off impressive thrashing of Texans Monday night; they have to keep going, since Broncos are on their tail for #2 seed in AFC, which brings first-round bye in playoffs. Patriots won last seven games, covered three of last four; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning last five games in Foxboro by 10-3-6-35-28 points. Pats scored 11 TDs on last 21 drives at home, against teams with combined record of 20-6. 49ers are 4-2 on road, with both losses in domes (Vikings/Rams); they scored 13-3-13 points in three losses, 24 in their tie. Patriots held last three opponents under 20 points, but they’re hardly dominant defensive team, instead relying on takeaways (+24 turnover margin). 49ers are 4-1-1 vs spread last six times they were an underdog. Brady is from northern California, so this game figures to be special for him. 10 of last 11 Patriot games, four of last five Niner games went over the total. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-5.

Jets (6-7) @ Titans (5-8)—As bad as the Jets have been, as awful as their QB play has been, they close with Titans-Chargers-Bills; its not impossible they could still make playoffs. Go figure. Gang Green won three of last four games, allowing 13 or less points in all three wins; they’re 3-3 on road, losing at Pitt-Foxboro-Seattle. Tennessee lost four of last six games, as young QB Locker gets experience; he’s kind of a right-handed Tebow, athletic as hell, not an accurate passer. Titans are 2-4 at home, with both wins by a FG (Lions/Steelers). Jets ran ball for 177-166 yards last two games, as they try to take pressure off Sanchez, who has horrible set of WRs; expect more of same here. Jets won five of last six series games, winning three of four here, but last of those was in ’08. AFC East road underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Did you know before the Jets were the Jets, they were the New York Titans?

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 16

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. MIAMI
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games at home
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New Orleans's last 18 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CLEVELAND
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. BALTIMORE
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing Minnesota

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. BUFFALO
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Detroit is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
Arizona is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games

4:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DALLAS
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

8:20 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing New England
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England
New England is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing San Francisco


Monday, December 17

8:30 PM
NY JETS vs. TENNESSEE
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Jets last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets