The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Chicago: 8-1 Over at home off a division game

NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 11-3 ATS off a home win
Atlanta: 30-8 Over off a division road loss

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS off BB losses
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-9 ATS off a home win
St. Louis: 7-0 Under off a SU win

Washington at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Washington: 6-0 ATS off a home game
Cleveland: 9-0 Under in December

Jacksonville at Miami, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 15-5 Over off a home game
Miami: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game

Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Denver: 7-1 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore: 8-0 Over off a loss by 6 points or less

Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 15-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Houston: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

Carolina at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 13-4 Over as an underdog
San Diego: 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Seattle at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 1-14 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Buffalo: 13-5 Over as an underdog

Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-18 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 26-13 ATS at home off 3+ losses

Pittsburgh at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-2 ATS off a SU loss
Dallas: 0-6 ATS off a road win

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 17-6 ATS away off a road loss
Oakland: 6-21 ATS off 3+ games scoring 17 points or less

(TC) San Francisco at New England, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS away in December
New England: 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points


Monday, December 17, 2012

(TC) NY Jets at Tennessee, 8:40 ET ESPN
NY Jets: 12-2 Over off an Under
Tennessee: 2-9 ATS as a favorite

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The weather may be getting colder but action at the sportsbook is heating up.

Oddsmakers have been moving NFL Week 15 lines all over the board as money pours in. We talk with veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, of William Hill Nevada, about the biggest adjustments heading into the weekend:

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

The early money has jumped on the Falcons, coming off an upset loss to the Panthers last week. However, Vaccaro expects the public to side with the Giants before kickoff Sunday.

“I think we’ll still end up rooting for Atlanta in the end,” Vaccaro told Covers. “The general public has been going against Atlanta the last few weeks.”

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams – Open: -3, Move: -1

The Rams have been a solid home bet this season but bettors have moved them from field-goal faves to -1 as of Thursday afternoon, with the majority of action on Minnesota and red-hot RB Adrian Peterson.

“The early money is more a bet on Peterson than on the Minnesota Vikings,” says Vaccaro.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills – Open: +4, Move: +5.5

This spread has moved up since post, with money on the Seahawks. Vaccaro says having this game inside in Toronto and not in the December cold of Ralph Wilson Stadium is a big reason why Buffalo is becoming an even bigger underdog.

“This is worth something – I’m not sure how much,” he says of the venue difference. “The people in Buffalo don’t like it, having to blow a home game and you’re not going to get them packing up and heading to Canada to watch a football game.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

The early bets came in on Pittsburgh, pushing this spread to Steelers -1.5, but Vaccaro expects that action to even out by Sunday, especially with the public following the Cowboys have.

“Both teams are 7-6 and you can basically color whichever team loses out of the playoff picture,” says Vaccaro. “If I’m staring at this one on Sunday before kickoff, I expect the action to be split right down the middle.”

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots – Open: -3, Move: -6

The Patriots’ win over Houston Monday is worth about three points to the spread, moving the opening number of -3 to -6 as of Thursday. Vaccaro says it’s been nothing but New England money this week.

“New England is one of those few teams that when they drub somebody, it’s hard for the public not to bet on them,” he says. “Early last week, we took Houston money and went as low as -3 for a while before we shot up to -6. That’s the power of the betting public.”

As for the total, this number has shrunk since opening at 48 points. Early money on the under had dropped the total to 46.5. Sunday night’s forecast is calling for a 53 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 30s.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 15

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 15's action.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (3, 43)

The Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title with a win over the Bears. Green Bay rallied from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend and pick up its seventh win in its last eight games. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sidelines. Chicago suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota last Sunday. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. These teams have played under the total in nine of the last 10 meetings.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 51)

The Falcons’ running game is ranked 28th in the NFL, averaging 86.9 yards per game - 68.4 over the past five contests. Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers combined for a season-low 35 yards on 11 attempts in last week's 30-20 loss at Carolina. The Giants boast a defense that is second in the league in forcing turnovers (34) and interceptions (20). New York steamrolled the Saints 52-27 last week and has won four straight over Atlanta. The Giants are the only NFC team Matt Ryan has yet to beat. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 53)

The Buccaneers will look to snap a three-game losing skid and keep their faint postseason aspirations alive when they visit the New Orleans Saints. Tampa Bay saw an 11-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in short order before dropping a 23-21 decision to reeling Philadelphia last week. Tampa Bay also squandered a double-digit lead en route to dropping a 35-28 decision to New Orleans on Oct. 21. Drew Brees tossed four touchdowns in that contest, but has thrown seven interceptions over the last two games. New Orleans' defense is yielding a league-worst 436.9 yards per game - nearly 43 yards more than 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Bucs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have played over the total in their last four road contests.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)

The Vikings ended a two-game skid and breathed life into their playoff hopes with a 21-14 home win over Chicago last Sunday. Running back Adrian Peterson carried the ball a career-high 31 times for 154 yards in the win and is averaging more yards per rushing attempt (6.04) than QB Christian Ponder averages per pass attempt (5.99). The Rams have remained in playoff contention by winning three in a row. St. Louis has not allowed an opposing running back to gain more than 65 yards in four straight games. They held Buffalo's sixth-ranked rushing attack to 61 yards - 80 below its season average - in a 15-12 road win last Sunday. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against opponents with winning records.

Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (1, 43.5)

Robert Griffin III and his sprained lateral collateral ligament are getting all of the attention this week. The rookie QB has practiced on a limited basis and will likely be a game-time decision. The Browns’ current three-game winning streak is their longest since 2009. Cleveland has held its last three opponents to an average of 12.7 points while forcing 11 turnovers. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7, 37.5)

The Jaguars try to avoid losing five in row on the road for the first time in nine seasons against a Dolphins team that's dropped five of six overall. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is likely to miss his eighth straight game, but WR Cecil Shorts (concussion) could return Sunday. Jacksonville ranks 31st in total offense and defense, averaging 282.9 yards per game and allowing 394.5. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last six games against AFC foes.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (3, 48)

The Ravens have lost back-to-back games in the regular season for the first time since the 2009 season. They went 54 straight games without suffering a two-game losing streak and they could receive a huge boost at the linebacker position on Sunday. Terrell Suggs (bicep) may be back this week after sitting out against Washington and there's a chance Ray Lewis (triceps) could play for the first time since Week 6. Broncos QB Peyton Manning looks to help guide Denver to its ninth straight victory overall while winning his ninth consecutive start against the Ravens. The Broncos have dropped each of their last five trips to Baltimore, including the last two by a combined 37 points. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9.5, 48)

The Texans look to rebound from a blowout loss to the Patriots and prevent the surging Colts from securing a playoff berth as these teams meet in Houston for the first of two meetings over the final three weeks. The Texans offense has stumbled in the last two games, being held under 340 total yards in both while going 8 of 31 on third downs. Indianapolis has won three straight and seven of eight, moving into position to join the 2008 Miami Dolphins as the only teams to lose at least 14 games one season and qualify for the playoffs the following year. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (6, 43.5)

Arizona Cardinals quarterbacks have not thrown a touchdown pass in the last four games, but they have tossed three interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns in that span. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has named Ryan Lindley his starter this week after John Skelton failed to lead the offense to a single point in last week’s blowout loss to the Seahawks. Lions WR Calvin Johnson has 120 receptions for 2,106 yards in his last 16 games. The 2,106 receiving yards are the most over any 16-game stretch since 1960 and Johnson is currently 302 yards short of Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 receiving yards set in 1995. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)

The Chargers lost four straight before last Sunday's 34-24 victory in Pittsburgh, their first win against a team with a winning record. San Diego finally found a way to protect QB Philip Rivers, who was only sacked once in the victory and matched a season high with three TD passes. Rivers has been sacked 37 times this year – second most in the league. Carolina's 30-20 victory last week over Atlanta was by far the highlight of its season. The Panthers racked up a season-high 475 yards on the Falcons and have played over the total in their last five games.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills (5.5, 43.5)

Seattle set a franchise record for points and matched its second-highest takeaway total with eight in its rout of Arizona last week. The Seahawks are one win away from clinching their first winning season since 2007 and will have CB Richard Sherman in the lineup for another week, after his appeal for his four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs was delayed. The Bills appear destined to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season after falling 15-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Buffalo doesn’t have a true home advantage in this one, as the game is being played at the domed Rogers Centre in Toronto. These teams have played over the total in their last seven meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)

The Cowboys and Steelers will try to boost their postseason odds when they meet in Dallas. The Cowboys suffered a big blow when WR Dez Bryant fractured his left index finger in last week’s win over the Bengals. However, Bryant intends to delay surgery and suit up. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger looked a little rusty in his return from injury last week, but it’s the depleted secondary that will concern coach Mike Tomlin this week. Ike Taylor will miss his second consecutive game due to a broken right ankle, while Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen are questionable with hip flexor ailments. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-3, 44)

Kansas City looks for its ninth victory in its last 10 visits to Oakland without top receiver Dwayne Bowe (ribs) when these AFC West rivals meet. Oakland, which has lost six straight since beating the Chiefs on Oct. 28, hopes to have both RB Darren McFadden (ankle) and DE Richard Seymour (hamstring) back in the lineup. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)

The New England Patriots have scored more points in their last five games (210) than the Arizona Cardinals (186) and Kansas City Chiefs (195) have scored all season. Furthermore, The Patriots have put up 284 points in their last seven contests. That is more than 13 NFL teams have scored in the entire season. Niners LB Aldon Smith has as many sacks in the last six games (14) as the Jacksonville Jaguars have all season. Smith, who has 19.5 sacks on the season, is three away from tying Michael Strahan's record mark of 22.5 set in 2001. San Francisco has played over the total in four of its last five games overall.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1, 41)

The Jets have posted ugly back-to-back wins, totaling 559 yards of offense over the last two games. Mark Sanchez continues to struggle, passing for just 208 yards with three interceptions during the win streak. The Titans, who have dropped three straight, were dealt a blow last Sunday when TE Jared Cook was lost for the year with a torn right rotator cuff. Cook is second on the team in receptions (44) and third in yards (523). The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

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Early NFL weather: Rain on the way in Week 15

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 15 of the NFL season:

Denver at Baltimore (3, 48)

Site: M&T Bank Stadium

Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-40s with a 70 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the SE.

Green Bay at Chicago (3, 43)

Site: Soldier Field

Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-40s with a slight 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the west at 13 mph.

Washington at Cleveland (1, 43.5)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Carolina at San Diego (-3, 44.5)

Site: Qualcomm Stadium

Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the north.

Kansas City at Oakland (-3, 44)

Site: O.co Coliseum

Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

San Francisco at New England (-5, 46)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 70 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 8 mph.

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Packers at Bears: What bettors need to know

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (1, 43)

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are trending in opposite directions. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title at the expense of their longtime rival on Sunday. Green Bay continued its rapid ascent after rallying from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend.

Chicago also faced off against a division foe last week but suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but he is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. He'll need to do better than his four-interception performance in a 23-10 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 13.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -1, O/U 43

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-4): Beware of the vaunted Green Bay ... running game? The trio of Alex Green (career-high 69 yards), practice squad call-up DuJuan Harris (31 yards, touchdown) and veteran Ryan Grant made their presence felt last week. Aaron Rodgers also got in on the fun with a 27-yard touchdown run, but isn't too bad of a passer, either. In addition, Rodgers may see the return of wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who has been hobbled by a hamstring injury.

ABOUT THE BEARS (8-5): Cutler has connected with trusted target Brandon Marshall - who emphasized his dislike for the Bears on Wednesday - 101 times for 1,342 yards this season, but the pair only hooked up twice for 24 yards in the previous encounter versus the Packers. Getting Matt Forte untracked could go along way for both the running and passing games. Forte, who mustered just 31 yards vs. Green Bay in the previous encounter, hasn't scored a rushing TD since Nov. 4.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. After recording 28 turnovers en route to posting a 7-1 mark, Chicago has forced just seven takeaways in its past five contests.

2. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sideline.

3. The Bears will turn to veteran K Olindo Mare after Robbie Gould suffered a season-ending calf injury prior to last week's game versus Minnesota.

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Steelers at Cowboys: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)

After a sluggish start, wide receiver Dez Bryant has made his presence felt as the Dallas Cowboys have risen in the standings. While dealing with a fractured left index finger, Bryant's presence itself is now in question heading into Sunday's game against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. Bryant, who has expressed his desire to play, suffered the injury as Dallas recorded its fourth win in five contests with a 20-19 triumph over Cincinnati last week.

Pittsburgh knows a thing or two about injuries, although it welcomed back Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) in last week's 34-24 home loss to San Diego. Roethlisberger struggled before throwing three touchdown passes - albeit with the game no longer in doubt and the Steelers skidding to their third loss in four contests. Pittsburgh is clinging to the final wild-card berth in the AFC, while Dallas sits one game behind NFC East-leading New York.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Steelers -1, O/U 44

ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-6): Although Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati next week in a game with AFC North and wild card implications, the Steelers need to keep their focus on the task at hand. Mike Tomlin's rushing carousel has careened off its tracks as Jonathan Dwyer struggled to move the ball last week while Rashard Mendenhall's displeasure with his inactivity has reportedly led to a one-game suspension.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6): While Dallas has been faring well on the field, the team is still dealing with the death of practice squad linebacker Jerry Brown. Many of the Cowboys attended the memorial - including Josh Brent, who was released from jail on intoxication manslaughter charges stemming from the one-car accident that killed Brown. Back on the field, Tony Romo has thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on field turf.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Pittsburgh will feature its fifth different offensive line in as many games on Sunday. First-round pick G David DeCastro will make his first career start versus Dallas.

2. Bryant, who has seven touchdowns in his last five contests, has scored all nine of his TDs this season in the second half of games.

3. The Steelers have played in the new Cowboys Stadium - although Dallas was not their opponent. Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay in Super Bowl XV.

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Sunday Night Football: Niners at Patriots

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-4.5, 46)

The sizzling New England Patriots looks for their eighth straight win when they host NFC powerhouse San Francisco in a battle royale on Sunday night. The Patriots continue to knock off challengers with ease while steadily climbing the ladder in the AFC standings. Once 1-2 on the season, New England looks to gain the top seed in the AFC to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. After embarrassing Houston on Monday night, it stamped itself as the best team in the conference.

The 49ers have been a bit inconsistent since inserting the speedy Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick, who is 3-1 as a starter since replacing Alex Smith at quarterback, sealed last week's 27-13 win over Miami with a 50-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. RB Frank Gore, who went over the 1,000-yard mark in the game, continues to provide San Francisco with balance on offense but it’s clearly the Niners’ defense which makes them a Super Bowl threat. That unit ranks second in the NFL in total defense.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Patriots -4.5, O/U 46.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with an 85 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the east at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-3-1): Expect San Francisco to try to control the ball against the Patriots, who are the runaway leader in the NFL with 475 points scored. That could mean a big workload for Gore, who tied Roger Craig and Joe Perry for the franchise mark with his 50th career rushing touchdown last week. The 49ers rank second in the NFL in rushing, averaging over 160 yards a game on the ground, to take a lot of the pressure off the shoulders of Kaepernick. A week after Kaepernick struggled in a 16-13 overtime loss at St. Louis, the second-year pro went for 18-for-23 with a 100.2 passer rating. Aldon Smith continues to be a menace on defense and set the team mark with two more sacks against the Dolphins to give him 19.5 on the season.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-3): Tom Brady picked apart Houston last week, throwing four more touchdown passes, and stamped himself as the leader in the MVP race. Brady is tied for the NFL lead in passer rating and threw a pair of TD passes to tight end Aaron Hernandez, whose immense talent has allowed tight end Rob Gronkowski to recover from a broken forearm at his own pace. New England humiliated the Texans, who before the game labeled it as the biggest game in their franchise’s history. The Patriots, who are accustomed to playing big games, raced out to a 21-0 lead on the way to a 42-14 romp. New England continues to roll through the second half of recent seasons. The three-time Super Bowl champs have won 20 straight games at home in December.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots’ last four vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco is 4-2 on the road. New England is 5-1 at home.

2. Brady has 29 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. He has thrown a TD pass in 45 straight games, the third-longest streak in history.

3. The 49ers suspended little-used RB Brandon Jacobs for the rest of the season.

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Capping Sunday's must-win NFL games

It’s Week 15 and the playoff pressure is mounting for a handful of NFL teams. This week’s schedule features a pair of games that have both combatants fighting for their playoff lives.

Let’s break down a betting strategy for these key matchups that feature teams on the outside looking in with the help of the Covers Experts.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)

The Vikings proved they’ve still got some fight left in them after last week’s win over the Bears in Chicago. Minnesota shot out of the gates with a 5-1 SU record, but is just 3-5 since. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. St. Louis is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three overall, including a huge victory over the Niners in Week 13.

“I often feel that desperation is a factor oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line," says Covers Expert David Chan. "Did that team start the year red-hot, only to stumble through the middle of the season and then find itself in a must-win game near the end of the year (Vikings)? Or did it start slowly, and then come on like gangbusters to end the season, needing one or two more wins to keep its playoff hopes alive (Rams)?”

Adrian Peterson has carried the Vikings all season long, but he faces a tough Rams run defense this week.

“While they likely won't be able to shut him down entirely, I do feel that the Rams will be more successful in slowing Peterson down than other teams have been lately,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “The Rams haven't allowed any running back to gain more than 65 yards against them in the last four games.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

There’s no shortage of storylines coming into this game for the Cowboys. They’re still dealing with the death of Jerry Brown and now have concerns about the health of WR Dez Bryant.

“The biggest thing about this matchup is the emotional state of the Cowboys,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “We saw the Chiefs play well and then struggle the following week after their tragedy and you have to wonder if Dallas will have that problem this week.”

Bryant has vowed to play this week despite nursing a fractured left index finger. But can bettors expect the same offensive output from him this week?

“I feel the Bryant injury is a big deal," notes Covers Expert Bryan Power. “It severely limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, and keep in mind they’re facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league."

Another thing to keep in mind is how horrible Dallas is against the spread at home this season. They've failed to cover in all six games.

The Steelers hung on for dear life when Ben Roethlisberger fell to shoulder and rib injuries. Charlie Batch found some muster in his old legs to keep them in the playoff hunt, but Big Ben showed some rust in last week’s loss to the Chargers and put his team's back against the wall.

“Big Ben should bounce back this week as he is the ultimate competitor, although historically he's not as strong on the road with 38 career wins and a 90.1 QB rating, says Covers Expert Chris Elliott. "This game comes down to whoever runs the ball effectively. Expect a low- scoring game and a tight finish.”

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 53.5)

Buccaneers’ ball-hawking defense vs. Saints’ turnover troubles

The obvious mismatch in this NFC South showdown is the Saints’ powerful passing attack versus the Bucs’ busted pass defense. However, a quick look at New Orleans’ numbers against the Giants last week will take the shine off that battle. Drew Brees passed for 354 yards but was picked off twice – his ninth interception in the last three games – while New Orleans also lost two fumbles.

Tampa Bay may be getting burned by opposing QBs but they have capitalized when those arms made mistakes. The Bucs have picked off 17 passes this season – fourth in the NFL – and took three of those back to the house. Veteran corner Ronde Barber leads the team with four INTs and is probably the one player in the NFL that knows Brees the best. He recorded an INT in Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans in Week 7.

Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (+1, 43.5)

Redskins’ hobbled QB Robert Griffin III vs. Browns’ sack attack

Despite some tight lips in the nation’s capital this week, it appears that Robert Griffin III will play on a gimpy right knee Sunday. Griffin suffered a sprained ACL against Baltimore last week and is officially listed as questionable. The dual-threat rookie QB went through Wednesday’s practice without issue but will be tested by a relentless pass rush in Cleveland.

The brightest spot for the Browns is their ability to get to the quarterback. Cleveland ranks seventh in the NFL with 34 sacks this season, including five versus former QB Brady Quinn in a win over Kansas City last weekend. You can expect the Browns will bring pressure early and test the mobility of RG3 and his wonky knee. Add to that some slick playing conditions in Cleveland, with a 54 percent chance of rain and winds getting up around 15 mph.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)

Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera vs. Chargers’ coach Norv Turner

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is well schooled in the “Book of Norv”, having spent four seasons as Turner’s assistant with the Chargers, two as the Bolts’ defensive coordinator. When Rivera took the gig in Carolina, he raided the cupboards and took offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and secondary coach Steve Wilks with him.

Turner isn’t just going up against three former pupils but also his own son, Scott, who is the Panthers offensive quality control coach. The two usually talk every day but have had radio silence since last Sunday. Turner is on his way out of San Diego after a disappointing season and won’t be throwing any wrinkles into this usual bag of tricks. There won’t be many surprises for the Panthers coaches Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)

Niners’ crappy kick coverage vs. Patriots’ sound special teams

In a game this tight, every yard is going to matter and field position may just dictate the winner. The Niners are a solid unit on both sides of the ball but their glaring weakness is on special teams. San Francisco has allowed foes to average 28.1 yards per kick return – worst in the NFL. The 49ers gave up some big returns to Miami last weekend, allowing an average of 30.6 yards per return on five kickoffs.

New England’s special teams are far from dangerous but they do have touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns this season. The Patriots have shown more life on punt returns, averaging 14 yards per return. On the other side of the ball, New England allows just 20.3 yards per kickoff (third lowest) and 5.9 yards per punt (fourth lowest).

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Top 5 NFL Trends



MIN
STL

STL are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.



NYG
ATL

Under is 7-0 in NYG last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.



MIN
STL

MIN are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.



MIN
STL

Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.



WAS
CLE

CLE are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

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Total Talk - Week 15

December 15, 2012

Week 14 Recap

The total numbers on the season have been pretty even and last week’s results were no different. The ‘over/under’ produced an even 8-8 mark but once again, a lot of total players were given early holiday gifts due to second-half fireworks – again! There were five games that saw 30 or more points scored in the final two quarters and two of those contests had 40-plus points posted. When the Jets and Browns put up 17 and 20 points respectively in a half, it should open up your eyes. If you bet the ‘over’ in the second-half blindly last week, you would’ve gone 11-5 (69%). Following this column all season, you shouldn’t be surprised since this has been a reoccurring theme. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 105-103-1.

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-3 last week and easily could’ve been 3-1 or 2-2 if it wasn’t for some late explosions that we talked about above. Here are the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday evening.

N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: Line opened 52 and dropped to 50 ½
Indianapolis at Houston: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 ½
Carolina at San Diego: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44 ½
Pittsburgh at Dallas: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45 1/2
San Francisco at New England: Line opened 48 and dropped to 46 ½

International Notes

This week, the NFL International Series continues with Buffalo and Seattle going head-to-head at the Rogers Center from Toronto. I feel both the side in Seattle (-5.5) and the total (43.5) are inflated for this matchup. This is a must-win spot for the ‘Hawks and definitely a look-ahead with San Francisco on deck in Week 16, which could be for the division lead. Buffalo has played much better recently, especially on defense. The unit has given up 14, 20, 18 and 15, which helped the ‘under’ go 3-1 during this span. Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its last eight battles after the first five games of the season went ‘under.’ I do believe quarterback Russell Wilson has improved as a rookie but the ‘Hawks haven’t seen a total this high since their Week 3 affair against Green Bay (45). The NFL has tried hard to push their product in Canada and unfortunately for the league, the games have been absolutely ugly. The sample size isn’t that large, but all four of the games played in Toronto have all gone ‘under’ the number.

2008: Miami 16 Buffalo 3 – Under 43
2009: N.Y. Jets 19 Buffalo 13 – Under 37
2010: Chicago 22 Buffalo 19 – Under 41.5
2011: Washington 0 Buffalo 23 – Under 46.5

Rematch Games

On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 15-9 (63%) in the second meeting between divisional teams. Total players are looking at three more this Sunday and one of them has the highest number on the board.

Green Bay at Chicago: The ‘under’ has been a solid investment when these teams clash and it hit in the first encounter when Green Bay defeated Chicago 23-10 at home on Sept. 13. Including that outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Green Bay enters this game on a 4-0 roll to the ‘under’ and Chicago hasn’t seen a game eclipse this week’s number (43) in five consecutive weeks.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Bucs watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games but the ‘under’ has prevailed in two of the last three because the offense (22 PPG) has struggled. Tampa Bay lost to New Orleans 35-28 in the first go ‘round at home on Nov. 21 and it left points off the board too. New Orleans’ defense can’t stop anybody and the offense does have the ability to score, which is why you’re looking at 54-point total. Even though the first meeting went ‘over’ the number (49), that result snapped an eight-game streak to the ‘under’ between these teams.

Kansas City at Oakland: The Raiders beat the Chiefs 26-16 on Oct. 26 and the combined 42 points just slipped ‘over’ the closing number of 41. Despite that result, this series has watched the ‘under’ cash in seven of the last 10 encounters. Oakland (4-0) and Kansas City (4-1) both enter this game with solid ‘under’ runs. This week’s number is hovering in the 44-point range.

Under the Lights

Even though the Bengals-Eagles matchup went ‘over’ this past Thursday, the ‘under’ has still connected at a 64% (28-16) clip this weekend.

San Francisco at New England: Will the 49ers defense be able to slow down the Patriots offense? Against comparable quarterbacks (Rodgers, Manning, Brees), San Francisco gave up 22, 26 and 21 points. Tom Brady and New England put up 42 against the Texans last Monday and that unit was supposed to be great too, right? The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 10-3 this season and a few of those tickets were lucky (last week in particular) but they’re still winners at the betting counter. Make a note that New England hasn’t seen a total (46.5) this low since it beat the Rams 45-7 (46) from London in Week 8.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee: It’s hard to argue for the ‘over’ here just based on the Jets’ inconsistent offense, which has scored a combined 24 points the last two weeks. What’s even more embarrassing is that New York won those games because the defense only surrendered 16. The Titans have more firepower than the Jets and they also have more holes on defense, which sets up an ‘over’ look. If you believe Tennessee will win, then you should expect some points. In their four victories this season, the Titans have scored 44, 26, 35 and 37 points.

Fearless Predictions

Despite having a “Never in Doubt” loser on the ‘under’ in Seattle-Arizona, we still managed to break even by winning our Team Total and Teaser wagers. On the week we dropped a few cents (-$20) but we’re still ahead on the season at $840 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Dallas 44 1/2

Best Under: Seattle-Buffalo 43 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 35 ½ Pittsburgh-Dallas
Under 53 Kansas City-Oakland
Under 50 ½ N.Y. Jets-Tennessee

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15 Tips

December 15, 2012

The Week 15 NFL card is perhaps the most solid slate on a Sunday we have seen this season. Nine games involve playoff ramifications, including four which could affect seedings. Two take place in the AFC and a pair happens in the NFC, as the two oldest rivals in the league start the day in the Windy City.

Packers (-2 ½, 43 ½) at Bears - 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay dominated Chicago back in Week 2 at Lambeau Field, 23-10 to cash as five-point favorites. Matt Forte left that loss with a sprained ankle that kept the Pro Bowl running back out for only one game, while rushing for over 100 yards just twice this season. The Packers enter Sunday's action with a one game advantage over the Bears in the NFC North, as Green Bay goes for its fifth divisional win in five tries.

Chicago got tripped up at Minnesota last week, falling 21-14 as short 'chalk,' as the Vikings stayed alive in the NFC playoff race. Adrian Peterson rushed for two touchdowns as the Vikings led, 14-0 after the first quarter and cruised from there. The Bears have fallen off since a 7-1 start by losing four of their last five games, while failing to cover in six of their previous eight contests.

The Packers are on fire with seven victories in their last eight games, as Mike McCarthy's club is riding a four-game 'under' streak. Green Bay held off Detroit last Sunday night, 27-20, in spite of gaining just 288 yards of offense. Injuries are mounting up on each side as the Bears will be without kicker Robbie Gould (calf) and linebacker Brian Urlacher (hamstring), while wide receiver Jordy Nelson (hamstring) and cornerback Charles Woodson (collarbone) remain out for the Packers.

Giants at Falcons (-1 ½, 51) - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta suffered its second loss of the season last Sunday at Carolina, a 30-20 setback as three-point favorites. The Falcons trailed, 23-0 at one point, as Mike Smith's squad is in a battle for home-field advantage in the NFC along with the 49ers and Packers. The Giants invade the Georgia Dome after dropping a season-high 52 points in last week's rout of the Saints, while hitting the 'over' for just the second time in the previous eight games.

New York is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS the last six games, as Tom Coughlin's team is playing as inconsistent as the record indicates. The Giants beat New Orleans by 25, routed Green Bay by 28, but scored 29 combined points in road losses to Washington and Cincinnati. This is just the fourth time all season the Giants are listed as an underdog, as New York won outright at Carolina (Week 3) and San Francisco (Week 6).

The Falcons remain unbeaten at the Georgia Dome by compiling a 6-0 record, but Atlanta has covered just three home games. Since scoring 27 against Denver in Week 2 and 30 against Carolina in Week 4, the Falcons have put up no more than 23 points in each of their last four home contests, while hitting the 'under' each time. Atlanta has lost each of the previous four meetings with New York, including a 24-2 blowout to the Giants in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last season.

Broncos (-3, 48) at Ravens - 1:00 PM EST

A pair of teams that will likely host a first-round playoff game hook up in Baltimore on Sunday. The Ravens try to snap a two-game skid after an overtime setback at Washington, the fourth contest decided by three points for Baltimore. The Broncos head east seeking their ninth consecutive victory, while looking to score at least 30 points for the eighth time in 11 tries.

Denver is coming off a few extra days of rest after beating Oakland last Thursday, 26-13 as 10-point favorites, snapping a three-game ATS skid. John Fox's club has won five straight road contests, while holding each of their last three opponents on the highway to 14 points or less. The home team has won each of the last six meetings, including four double-digit losses by the Broncos in Baltimore.

The Ravens have always been a dominating force at M&T Bank Stadium, going 5-1 SU, but covering just twice in six attempts. Baltimore has eclipsed the 'over' in five of six home games, while scoring at least 30 points four times. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens own a 1-2 SU/ATS record as a home underdog, as the last time Baltimore received points at home, it lost to Peyton Manning and Indianapolis by two points in 2009.

Colts at Texans (-10, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Amazingly, Indianapolis and Houston haven't hooked up yet this season, but will play two important contests over the next three weeks. The Texans enter Sunday's action with a two-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South, as Houston tries to get on track after getting routed at New England last Monday.

The Patriots dominated from start to finish, as New England crushed Houston, 42-14 to cash easily as six-point favorites. The Texans have lost just twice this season, but the defense has yielded 42 points in each defeat to Green Bay and New England. Houston is playing just its third home game since early November, while going for its fifth cover in seven tries at Reliant Stadium.

The Colts have lost just four games in Andrew Luck's rookie campaign, but three of those defeats came by 20 or more points on the road. Indianapolis has been involved in several high-scoring affairs the last few weeks, including a 27-23 triumph over Tennessee, hitting the 'over' for the third time in four games.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in LVH handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Green Bay Packers, 189
T4) Houston Texans, 201
T4) Minnesota Vikings, 201
3) New Jersey Giants, 208
2) San Francisco 49ers, 221
1) Pittsburgh Steelers, 242

25) New Jersey Jets, 77
26) Oakland Raiders, 72
27) New Orleans Saints, 71
28) San Diego Chargers, 55
30) Kansas City Chiefs, 42
31) Miami Dolphins, 38

[StarDust Bum]

45 minutes before kick off


December 16, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

4:25 PM Kansas City +4 1243 34.66% Oakland -4 2343 65.34% View View

8:20 PM San Francisco +4.5 1436 39.48% New England -4.5 2201 60.52% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay +4 1686 43.45% New Orleans -4 2194 56.55% View View

4:05 PM Carolina +3 1738 46.97% San Diego -3 1962 53.03% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +8 1847 51.55% Miami -8 1736 48.45% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota +2.5 2129 55.49% St. Louis -2.5 1708 44.51% View View

1:00 PM Denver -3 2204 55.52% Baltimore +3 1766 44.48% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh +1 2187 55.88% Dallas -1 1727 44.12% View View

1:00 PM Washington +4 1955 56.83% Cleveland -4 1485 43.17% View View

4:05 PM Seattle -4.5 2154 57.75% Buffalo +4.5 1576 42.25% View View

1:00 PM N.Y. Giants +1 2357 58.13% Atlanta -1 1698 41.87% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis +10.5 2542 64.90% Houston -10.5 1375 35.10% View View

1:00 PM Green Bay -1.5 2778 69.00% Chicago +1.5 1248 31.00% View View

4:05 PM Detroit -6 2639 70.71% Arizona +6 1093 29.29% View View

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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

4:25 PM Kansas City 43.5 Oakland 1060 43.69% 1366 56.31% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 39 St. Louis 1127 44.74% 1392 55.26% View View

4:05 PM Seattle 43.5 Buffalo 1125 45.90% 1326 54.10% View View

1:00 PM Washington 39.5 Cleveland 211 46.07% 247 53.93% View View

1:00 PM Denver 48 Baltimore 1154 48.45% 1228 51.55% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh 45.5 Dallas 1243 50.22% 1232 49.78% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 38 Miami 1264 51.03% 1213 48.97% View View

4:05 PM Detroit 43.5 Arizona 1318 54.83% 1086 45.17% View View

1:00 PM N.Y. Giants 50 Atlanta 1512 55.22% 1226 44.78% View View

1:00 PM Green Bay 43 Chicago 1506 57.50% 1113 42.50% View View

8:20 PM San Francisco 47 New England 1419 59.82% 953 40.18% View View

4:05 PM Carolina 45 San Diego 1710 67.32% 830 32.68% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay 54.5 New Orleans 1901 68.31% 882 31.69% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis 47.5 Houston 1968 74.32% 680 25.68% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1.5 500
Chicago - Under 43 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants +1 500
Atlanta -

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +4 500
New Orleans -

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET ( Minnesota +2.5 500 POD # 1 )
St. Louis - Under 39 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +4 500
Cleveland - Under 39.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Miami -8 500
Miami

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -3 500
Baltimore - Over 48 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET ( Indianapolis +10.5 500 POD # 2 )
Houston - Under 47.5 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +6 500
Arizona - Over 43.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

Carolina - 4:05 PM ET Carolina +3 500
San Diego - Over 45 500

Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle -4.5 500
Buffalo - Over 43.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Dallas - Under 45.5 500

Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Oakland -4 500
Oakland - Over 43.5 500

San Francisco - 8:20 PM ET ( San Francisco +4.5 500 POD # 3 )
New England - Under 47 500