The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

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NFL

Monday, December 17

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Monday Night Football: Jets at Titans
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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1, 42)

The New York Jets remain an unlikely contender for a postseason spot and will seek their third straight victory when they visit the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. Despite an offense that remains in shambles, New York has posted back-to-back victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars - teams with a combined one win in the last nine games - to stay within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Titans are the latest struggling opponent for the Jets, having lost three straight and five of six. Tennessee has issues on both sides of the ball, with the defense surrendering at least 30 points in seven of the first nine games and the offense having bogged down since quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Titans -1, O/U 42

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (6-7): With Mark Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. That allowed coach Rex Ryan to keep the ball out of the hands of Sanchez, who threw for only 111 yards after being benched the previous week in favor of third-stringer Greg McIlroy. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards earlier this week. The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night.

ABOUT THE TITANS (4-9): Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Despite his struggles - among the reasons for the dismissal of offensive coordinator Chris Palmer - the Titans are not shy about having Locker air it out. He's attempted an average of 40 passes in the last three games, and they are not coming when the team is forced to play catch-up. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Titans’ last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tennessee has won four of its last five Monday night games.

2. Edwards was claimed off waivers from Seattle this week despite posting on his Twitter account that New York's management was "idiots" for the way Sanchez has been utilized.

3. Titans TE Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.

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NFL

Monday, December 17

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Tale of the tape: Jets at Titans
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans.

Offense

Mark Sanchez has continued to struggle despite less-than-stellar competition. The Jets' embattled quarterback is 22 of 40 for 208 yards with three interceptions and a fumble over the last two games. With Sanchez continuing to flounder, New York finally reverted to its preseason promise of a ground-and-pound attack in last week's 17-10 win at Jacksonville. Bilal Powell rushed for 78 yards and a TD on 19 carries and Shonn Greene had 77 yards and a score on 20 rushes. New York's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading to the decision to bring back well-traveled veteran Braylon Edwards (hamstring) earlier this week. He is probable to suit up Monday night.

Titans QB Jake Locker missed five games earlier in the season due to injury and he has shown little progression since returning to the lineup. The second-year QB has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, including one from his own end zone that helped wipe out Tennessee's 13-point halftime lead against Indianapolis a week ago. Running back Chris Johnson has rushed for 1,000 yards for five straight seasons, but is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three games. Tight end Jared Cook, the team's second-leading receiver, is done for the season after suffering a torn rotator cuff in last week's game.

Edge: Titans


Defense

The Jets' defense has permitted a combined 16 points in the last two games after getting shredded for 49 by New England on Thanksgiving night. But keep in mind those dominant performances the past two weeks were against the NFL’s two worst offenses (Arizona, Jacksonville).

The Titans put together a dominant defensive first half — holding the Colts to 111 total yards, sacking Andrew Luck three times last week. The Tennessee stop unit limited the league’s third-best offense at the time to 269 yards and 4-of-12 third-down conversions. It also scored a touchdown. The Titans allow an average of 127 rushing yards, tied for 23rd in the league.

Edge: Jets


Special teams

The Jets rank eighth in opponents’ kickoff-return average and lead the league with 22 opponents’ drives starting inside their own 20. Kicker Nick Folk has made only 76 percent of his field goal attempts this season, ranking him 32nd in the league in that category.

Titans return specialist Darius Reynaud enjoyed success early in the season, but teams are now avoiding him. He returned just one punt for 14 yards in last week’s loss to the Colts and was ripped by the local media for his poor decision-making the week before against Houston. Rob Bironas and Brett Kern are one of the better kicking/punting duos in the league.

Edge: Titans


Word on the street

“Big, talented, physical guy (Locker). Almost has a mentality of a running back when he takes off with it. Obviously, he’s a great athlete, he has a big arm. He’s a guy, certainly, you have to worry about. Not only with his arm, but his scrambling ability as well.” – Jets head coach Rex Ryan on Jake Locker.

“We have a young quarterback and most teams have to decide, do we want to try to confuse him and go after him, or make him read coverage? I'm sure they'll do a little bit of both.” – Titans head coach Mike Munchak on what he expects from the Jets defense.

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Jets Fly Into Tennessee Hoping To Stay In Playoff Race

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/17/2012 at 8:40 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Titans -1, O/U 42½
Television: ESPN

New York Jets: Coach Rex Ryan and the Jets (6-7 straight up, 6-6-1 against the spread) are still clinging to faint playoff hopes as they make their way to Nashville for this Monday Night Football matchup. New York has won two straight along with three of four despite an offense that continues to struggle to move the ball and score points. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL in total offense (305.9 yards per game) and 26th in scoring (18.8 points per game), but they have been able to rely on a defense that held the past two opponents, Arizona and Jacksonville, to a combined 428 yards and 16 points. A receiving corps depleted by injuries forced the Jets to re-sign Braylon Edwards, most recently with the Seahawks. Edwards is expected to play this Sunday. New York is 3-3 on the road this season after last week's victory in Jacksonville, going 3-2-1 against the spread. The totals are split 3-3 in the contests.

Tennessee Titans: While offense has been a big problem for the Jets, poor defense has plagued the Titans (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS). Tennessee has dropped its last three games and five of the past six, also falling vs. the line in each defeat. The Titans are 27th among NFL teams in total defense, with opponents churning out over 377 yards per game, and next-to-last allowing close to 30 points a contest. Running back Chris Johnson went over the 1,000-yard rushing mark last week to rank ninth in the league, but it has been an inconsistent path to the season total. Johnson was held out of some practices this week due to an ankle injury, but he is expected to suit up and start on Monday (click for updated NFL injury report). This series dates back to the early days of the AFL when the Titans called Houston home, and the Jets have a slight 14-13-1 lead. New York has won five of the six meetings since the Titans relocated, covering the last five matchups.

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NFL Week 15 Preview: Jets at Titans

NEW YORK JETS (6-7)

at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-9)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -2, Total: 41.5

The Jets look to get back to .500 and remain alive in the playoff race when they visit Tennessee on Monday night.

This might be the least appealing matchup in Monday Night Football history, but the Jets are going to be playing hard, as they’re still entertaining playoff hopes. They’ve won back-to-back games, albeit against bottom-feeders Arizona (not a cover) and Jacksonville, but scored only 24 total points in those wins. The Titans, meanwhile, have crashed and burned. They’re just 1-3 SU and ATS since getting QB Jake Locker back in the lineup, and Locker has posted a 60.8 passer rating with seven interceptions during Tennessee’s current three-game losing streak. The Jets are 5-1 SU (6-0 ATS) versus the Titans since 1998, with the last meeting coming in 2009, a 24-17 New York victory.

Will the Jets be able to win for the fourth time in five games? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Jets have totaled just 559 yards (216 through the air) during their two-game win streak. QB Mark Sanchez has completed just 22-of-40 passes (5.2 YPA) with 3 INT over these two victories. For the season, Sanchez has the third-worst passer rating (71.8) among all qualified passers, throwing for just 6.5 YPA, 12 TD and 13 INT. New York is hoping newly-signed WR Braylon Edwards will help Sanchez get back on track. Edwards caught 53 passes for 904 yards and 7 TD in his final season with the Jets in 2010, and should be ready to play after being claimed off waivers from Seattle earlier in the week. The Titans have allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league (251 YPG), so the potential is there for a Jets passing resurgence. New York may just stick to running the football though, as the Titans give up 127 rushing YPG (24th in NFL). But even though the Jets have 147 rushing YPG in their past four contests, the Titans have limited their past four opponents to just 94 rushing YPG. The Jets RB duo of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell has combined for 317 rushing yards during the two-game win streak. New York needs to take better care of the football to win this game, as it has committed 11 turnovers in the past three games.

Locker has struggled with his accuracy since his return, but he is running very well with 89 yards on just eight carries in the past two games. The Titans may try some trick plays in an effort to penetrate New York's defense allowing just 29 points in its past three wins combined. They will also look to throw deep to dynamic WR Kenny Britt who is coming off a season-high eight catches for 143 yards in the 27-23 loss at Indianapolis. Locker will not have the team's second-leading receiver in TE Jared Cook (44 catches), who is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. The Jets rank third in the NFL in passing defense (196 YPG), but have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the league at 137 YPG. That could equal a huge day for Tennessee RB Chris Johnson who has rushed for 827 yards (5.5 YPC) and 4 TD in his past eight games.

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1 hour before kickoff:

December 17, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM N.Y. Jets -1 1919 49.41% Tennessee +1 1965 50.59% View View

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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM N.Y. Jets 41 Tennessee 1094 39.40% 1683 60.60% View View

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Monday, December 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 8:30 PM ET Tennessee -1 500

Tennessee - Under 42 500

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Falcons Can Wrap Up Home-Field Advantage At Detroit

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/22/2012 at 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Falcons -3, O/U 51
Television: ESPN

Atlanta Falcons: Coming off just their second loss of the season, the Falcons (12-2 straight-up, 8-5-1 against the spread) got back into the win column with a 34-0 whitewashing of the Giants in Week 15. Quarterback Matt Ryan tossed three touchdown passes, two of them to wide receiver Julio Jones, and Atlanta ended with nearly an 18-minute advantage on the clock in a game that closed as a Pick'em. The final fell more than two touchdowns short of the total to mark the fourth "under" in the last five Atlanta contests. The Falcons are 5-2 on the NFL highway this season, going 4-2-1 against the spread and 4-3 "over." Atlanta can sew up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a victory this week or a San Francisco loss. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with Detroit, most recently in 2011 with a 23-16 victory in Motown as 4½-point underdogs.

Detroit Lions: "Off the rails" is how Coach Jim Schwartz described the current state of the Lions (4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) following their sixth consecutive loss last week at Arizona. Detroit took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter before the Cardinals scored 24 unanswered points, and QB Matthew Stafford had two of his three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The game closed with the Lions laying 5½-6 points to an Arizona squad that had dropped its nine previous trips to the gridiron. The Lions have won just two of their six home games this season, going 1-4-1 against the spread and four of the six contests jumping above the total. Betting the high side of totals in Detroit tilts has been very profitable at 10-4 overall this season, but four of the last five in this series stayed "under" the mark, and the past five clashes in Detroit also failed to reach the number.

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Giants Desperate For Win Sunday At Ravens In Week 16

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/23/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Baltimore -1, O/U 47
Television: FOX

New York Giants: The Giants (8-6 straight-up, 6-7-1 against the spread) have seen this spread move solidly in their direction despite getting blown out 34-0 at Atlanta last week. New York is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games with losses in the three away (scoring just 9.7 points per game). The defending Super Bowl champs are now in a three-way tie in the NFC East with Washington and Dallas, and this is a huge game for the team's playoff hopes. Quarterback Eli Manning needs to get his mojo back after the first regular-season shutout of his career. He was just 13-of-25 for 161 yards against Atlanta, also throwing two more picks to raise his yearly total to 15. The running game needs a big day and should get a boost with Ahmad Bradshaw (knee) probable after missing last game (click to check updated NFL injury report).

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (9-5 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) also had a devastating loss last week, 34-17 at home to Peyton Manning and Denver. They’re reeling at 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three and are just one game ahead of Cincy for the AFC North lead. Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled last game (20-of-40 passing) despite Jim Caldwell taking over offensive coordinator duties from the fired Cam Cameron. The defense has also allowed 29.3 ppg the last three games, helping the "over" go 3-0. Linebacker Ray Lewis (tricep) is questionable to return after missing eight games while Terrell Suggs will continue to play through his biceps injury. The Giants and Ravens have met just twice since their January 2001 Super Bowl matchup (a 34-7 Baltimore win). The home team easily won and covered those two contests.

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Seahawks Host 49ers In Sunday Night Football Showdown

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/23/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Seahawks -1, O/U 40½
Television: NBC

San Francisco 49ers: The NFL puts Week 16 to rest with a big Sunday Night Football contest that could decide the NFC West with the Niners (10-3-1 straight-up, 9-5 against the spread) at the Seahawks. San Francisco picked up its second straight win and cover with a 41-34 upset at New England last Sunday as a 4-point road 'dog, nearly blowing a 31-3 lead early in the third quarter. The 49ers defense forced four turnovers to withstand a 443-yard passing performance by Patriots QB Tom Brady. Second-year QB Colin Kaepernick only completed 14 passes, but four went for San Fran touchdowns, setting a new career high in just his fifth NFL start. San Francisco picked up its fourth consecutive win in this series against the Seahawks with a 13-6 win at home back in Week 7. Seattle did have just enough to grab the cover as a 7½-point underdog for its second consecutive cover vs. the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks: Back-to-back 50-point efforts have the Seahawks (9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS) on a three-game winning and covering streak heading into this crucial showdown. The latest victim was Buffalo in Toronto as Seattle cruised to a 50-17 laugher, just the third "road" win in eight tries for Coach Pete Carroll's squad that will now close out the season at home, where the Seahawks are a perfect 6-0. Seattle rookie QB Russell Wilson ran for three scores and passed for another against the Bills, and the defense added its third touchdown in two games with Earl Thomas' pick-6 in the third quarter. The team's third-ranked rushing offense is led by running back Marshawn Lynch, who is approaching the 1,400-yard plateau for the season, and has 10 totes for scores. Seattle ranks fourth in turnover margin at plu-11, and the defense is second behind San Francisco allowing just 15.6 points per game. The last four Seahawks games have gone "over," but the last two in this series failed to reach the total.

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Falcons Can Wrap Up Home-Field Advantage At Detroit

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/22/2012 at 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Falcons -3, O/U 51
Television: ESPN

Atlanta Falcons: Coming off just their second loss of the season, the Falcons (12-2 straight-up, 8-5-1 against the spread) got back into the win column with a 34-0 whitewashing of the Giants in Week 15. Quarterback Matt Ryan tossed three touchdown passes, two of them to wide receiver Julio Jones, and Atlanta ended with nearly an 18-minute advantage on the clock in a game that closed as a Pick'em. The final fell more than two touchdowns short of the total to mark the fourth "under" in the last five Atlanta contests. The Falcons are 5-2 on the NFL highway this season, going 4-2-1 against the spread and 4-3 "over." Atlanta can sew up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a victory this week or a San Francisco loss. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with Detroit, most recently in 2011 with a 23-16 victory in Motown as 4½-point underdogs.

Detroit Lions: "Off the rails" is how Coach Jim Schwartz described the current state of the Lions (4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) following their sixth consecutive loss last week at Arizona. Detroit took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter before the Cardinals scored 24 unanswered points, and QB Matthew Stafford had two of his three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The game closed with the Lions laying 5½-6 points to an Arizona squad that had dropped its nine previous trips to the gridiron. The Lions have won just two of their six home games this season, going 1-4-1 against the spread and four of the six contests jumping above the total. Betting the high side of totals in Detroit tilts has been very profitable at 10-4 overall this season, but four of the last five in this series stayed "under" the mark, and the past five clashes in Detroit also failed to reach the number.

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Total Talk - Week 16

December 22, 2012

Week 15 Recap

For the second straight week, totals went 8-8. For the most part, these results were clear-cut. We had a few bad beats, in particular the Denver-Baltimore and San Francisco-New England games. Those two contests saw 35 and 55 points posted respectively in the second-half of their games. Another outcome that should be mentioned is the Colts-Texans matchup, which had 40 points on the board after three quarters. Unfortunately for ‘over’ players, only six points were posted in the final 15 minutes. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 105-103-1.

Line Moves

The smart money produced a 4-1 record last week and if it wasn’t for the result in last week’s SNF affair between the 49ers and Patriots, you would’ve seen a 5-0 mark. This week, we already have a couple games that have moved more than 3 points. Here are all of the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

Tennessee at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 44 ½
Buffalo at Miami: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
New England at Jacksonville: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 50 1/2
San Diego at N.Y. Jets: Line opened 41 and dropped to 37 1/2
San Francisco at Seattle: Line opened at 40 ½ and dropped to 38 ½

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in last week’s games under the lights. On the season, the ‘under’ has gone 29-17 (63%) in the primetime games. This week, bettors only have two games to follow with the first one taking place on Saturday.

Atlanta at Detroit: It’s certainly hard to argue for the ‘under’ when you look at Detroit’s defense, which has given up an average of 32 points per game the last six weeks. Most would expect Atlanta to get close to that number considering its averaging 27.4 PPG on the road. The Falcons defense posted a shutout last week but the unit hasn’t shown that much consistency this season. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home this season.

San Francisco at Seattle: The 49ers beat the Seahawks 13-6 in their first meeting on Oct. 18 and the closing total of 37 ½ points was never threatened. Since that game, San Francisco (5-2) and Seattle (6-1) have both leaned to the ‘over.’ The 49ers are coming off a 41-point performance, while the Seahawks have scored 50-plus points in each of the last two weeks. Weather could be dicey in the Great Northwest, with rain expected for the primetime battle.

Rematch Games

Betting the ‘over’ in the second meeting between divisional teams was a good look a few weeks ago but like any trend, it’s balancing out. The ‘over’ still holds a slight edge (15-12, 55%) but the ‘under’ has gone 10-5 (67%) in the last 15 rematches.

Buffalo at Miami: These teams met in a Thursday Night battle back in Week 10 and the Bills won 19-14 at home. In that game, Buffalo led 19-7 at the break and the only points (7) in the second-half came from Miami. The Bills have proven that they can light up the scoreboard, but they can also shoot blanks too. The Dolphins are limited offensively and this week’s total (41 ½) is much lower than the first meeting (45). Including the first encounter, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The first go ‘round in Week 7 saw the Steelers capture a 24-17 victory, which was their fifth straight win and cover over the Bengals. During this run, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 and that includes this year’s game in mid-October. Prior to last week’s ‘over’ against the Eagles, Cincinnati was on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’ The Bengals’ defense has held their last six opponents to 20 or less while the Steelers’ unit has given up 20 or more points the last four weeks, which tells you how underrated Cincinnati is on that side of the ball. Or perhaps, it’s better to say Pittsburgh’s “D” is overrated? At Heinz Field, the Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 and it could be 6-0 if it wasn’t for the second-half fireworks in Week 14 against San Diego.

Washington at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five in this series. Washington walloped Philadelphia 31-6 on Nov. 18 and the game stayed ‘under’ the closing number of 45, which is close to this week’s number (45 ½). RGIII is expected back for Washington and that should only help an offense that has put up 30-plus points in four of the last five weeks. After watching the ‘under’ go 5-0 in the first five weeks, the Eagles have swung the other way with a 6-3 mark to the ‘over’ the last nine games.

San Francisco at Seattle: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

After watching Seattle put up another 50-spot, I’m going to stay away from totals on the Seahawks for the rest of the season. With that the being said, they’ll probably get blanked against the 49ers this week. Even with the clear-cut loser in Seattle, we hit the ‘over’ ticket and drilled another teaser and managed to only lose a couple cents ($20) on the week. On the season, we’re up $840. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Merry Christmas to you and yours!

Best Over: Oakland-Carolina 46

Best Under: San Diego-N.Y. Jets 37 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 20 ½ N.Y. Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Oakland-Carolina
Under 53 Cleveland-Denver
Under 46 ½ San Diego-N.Y. Jets

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Week 16 Tips

December 22, 2012

The playoff races are tight in each conference with only two games remaining in the regular season. Past Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, the NFC has plenty of different scenarios of teams not only qualifying for a Wild Card spot, but the NFC East is still up for grabs. The Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants each own 8-6 records, but New York is finished with Dallas and Washington on the schedule. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to close strong against Houston and Green Bay, two teams that have already wrapped up division titles.

Vikings at Texans (-8, 44 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota has been the ultimate roller-coaster ride this season in the NFL. The Vikings began the campaign at 4-1, but lost five of the next seven games. Leslie Frazier's club has got back on track with consecutive victories over Chicago and St. Louis as short underdogs to improve to 8-6, while being part of a five-team logjam for one playoff spot in the NFC.

The Texans wrapped up their second straight AFC South title by beating the Colts last Sunday, 29-17 as 10 ½-point favorites. Houston moved to 12-2, as Gary Kubiak's squad can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with a victory over Minnesota. In four games off a home win, the Texans have hit the 'under' three times, while twice holding opponents to nine points or less.

The Vikings picked up just their second road win in seven tries last Sunday in a blowout of the Rams. Minnesota has lost all three times this season after scoring at least 26 points in a victory, including double-digit losses at Washington and Chicago. In two meetings between these teams, the 'over' has hit each time, including a 28-21 home triumph by Minnesota in 2008.

Saints at Cowboys (-2 ½, 51 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans couldn't overcome the disastrous offseason of "Bountygate," as the Saints will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The Cowboys are trying to avoid a December meltdown in the final two weeks, as Dallas saved its season with an overtime victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday.

Dallas controls its own destiny as far as the NFC East title goes as the Cowboys travel to Washington in the season finale. Jason Garrett's team closed as a one-point favorite in last week's 27-24 triumph over the Steelers, a third straight victory for the Cowboys. Dallas has cashed the 'over' in five of the last six home contests, as the potential for a shootout is possible again, taking on a New Orleans' defense that ranks 32nd in points allowed.

The Saints put together their most impressive win of the season last Sunday with a 41-0 rout of the Buccaneers as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The victory snapped a three-game skid, but New Orleans enters the Lone Star State with a 2-4 ATS record as an underdog this season. It's been a difficult task to determine is the Saints will hit the 'over' on the road consistently as evidenced by 3-3 mark to the 'over' with a total above 50.

Bengals at Steelers (-3 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

We didn't want to disregard the AFC playoff race, which still has plenty of storylines. Cincinnati dug themselves back from the dead after starting 3-5 as the Bengals have won five of their last six games, including a Thursday night rout of the Eagles, 34-13 as 4 ½-point road favorites. Now, the Bengals are playing with revenge after losing in Week 7 at home to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh topped Cincinnati, 24-17 two months ago at Paul Brown Stadium in a Sunday night affair, as the Steelers held the Bengals to 185 yards of total offense. With all the injuries the Steelers have suffered this season, former Georgia Tech standout Jonathan Dwyer stepped in to rush for 122 yards that night, while Chris Rainey scored the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has won each of the last five meetings, including a 3-0 record against Andy Dalton.

The Bengals are getting the job done on the defensive side, allowing 13 points or less in five of the previous six games, while cashing the 'under' five times in this stretch. Cincinnati has been one of the better road clubs in the league this season by compiling a 5-2 SU/ATS ledger, but both losses came to division opponents at Baltimore and Cleveland.

Giants (-2 ½, 47) at Ravens - 4:25 PM EST

New York knows the drill - just get in the playoffs. The Giants have alternated wins and losses in each of their last five games, including a 34-0 drubbing last Sunday at the hands of the Falcons. Tom Coughlin's club has lost three straight road contests, while scoring just 29 points in those defeats. The task won't be easy this week, but the Ravens need a victory to secure the AFC North crown.

Baltimore has stumbled recently with three consecutive losses, while getting blasted at home by AFC West champ Denver, 31-17 last Sunday. In John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach, the Ravens have never lost four straight games, as Baltimore has been in this situation two previous times since 2008. The Ravens have seen tremendous success at home against NFC opponents, winning 12 straight games dating back to 2006.

The Giants own a 2-4 ATS record the last six weeks, while putting together a 2-5 ATS mark since 2006 as a road favorite against AFC competition. The 'under' is profiting for New York recently, hitting in seven of the last nine games, even though this is the lowest total for the Giants since falling at Cincinnati in Week 10.

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Falcons at Lions

December 21, 2012


Two teams going in different directions will collide Saturday night at Ford Field in the Motor City, where Detroit will play host to Atlanta. With a win, the Falcons can wrap up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Most books are listing Atlanta (12-2 straight up, 8-5-1 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Mike Smith’s team silenced its critics with last week’s 34-0 clubbing of the Giants at the Ga. Dome. Matt Ryan completed 23-of-28 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

Julio Jones caught a pair of TD passes against the G-Men. Tony Gonzalez had the other TD grab and Michael Turner rushed for 52 yards and one score. Harry Douglas had three receptions for a team-high 83 yards.

Atlanta’s defense handed New York its first regular-season shutout since 1996. Sean Weatherspoon recorded a team-high nine tackles (six solo), while Thomas DeCoud and Asante Samuel both intercepted Eli Manning. Samuel’s interception on the Giants’ opening drive set the tone for the game and gave his team great field position to draw first blood.

Ryan is enjoying the best season of his career. The Boston College product has completed 68.5 of his passes for a career-high 4,202 yards with a 27/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ryan probably has the best trio of weapons in the NFL with tight end Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones and WR Roddy White, and now Douglas is getting more involved.

White has made a team-high 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and five TDs, while Jones has 69 catches for 1,071 yards and nine TDs. Gonzalez is possibly playing his last season but the future Hall of Famer isn’t slowing down a bit. Gonzalez has 87 receptions for 880 yards and eight TDs.

Atlanta has not had much success running the ball, however. Michael Turner is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry and his back-up, Jacquizz Rodgers, is averaging just 3.9 YPC.

Detroit (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) has been creating ways to lose all season and last week’s blowout loss to the lowly Cardinals was the icing on the cake in a nightmare campaign. Arizona snapped a nine-game losing streak by trouncing the Lions 38-10 as a six-point home underdog.

Matt Stafford threw three interceptions against the Cardinals, including a pair of pick-sixes.

Jim Schwartz’s club has lost six in a row, going 1-5 ATS in the process. To give you an idea of how frustrating things have been for the Lions, consider that they are second in the NFL in total offense and 12th in total defense. Until last week’s loss, Detroit’s seven previous defeats were all one-possession games.

Stafford is fourth in the NFL in passing yards with 4,252, but he has a mediocre 17/15 TD-INT ratio. Calvin Johnson leads the NFL in receiving with 106 catches for 1,667 yards and five TDs.

Detroit is 2-4 both SU and ATS at home this year. In a pair of home underdog situations, the Lions lost outright both times but went 1-1 ATS. During Schwartz’s four-year tenure, his team is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home underdog.

As if Schwartz didn’t have enough concerns, now injuries are starting to mount. Key players like WR Ryan Broyles, WR Titus Young, DT Corey Williams and DT Nick Fairley have recently been placed on injured reserve. Also, safety Louis Delmas is ‘questionable’ against Atlanta and TE Brandon Pettigrew is ‘doubtful.’

As for the Falcons, they have three key players listed as ‘questionable,’ including DT Jonathan Babineaux, OG Tyson Clabo and DB Chris Owens.

Atlanta has won five of its seven road games, posting a 4-2-1 spread record. The Falcons are 2-2-1 ATS as road favorites this season, 11-7-1 ATS as road ‘chalk’ during Smith’s five-year tenure.

I had a phone conversation Friday afternoon with Matt Youmans, who covers the sports betting beat for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Youmans told VegasInsider.com, “Bookmakers are prepared for a one-sided attack on the Falcons. It’s a bad situation in Detroit right now. I’ve heard the coaching staff isn’t getting along and that [head coach Jim] Schwartz and [offensive coordinator Scott] Linehan have been going at each other all year long.”

The ‘under’ is 9-5 overall for the Falcons, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 in their road assignments.

The ‘over’ is 9-4-1 overall for the Lions, 4-2 in their six home games.

Kickoff is slated for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Atlanta veteran defensive end John Abraham has registered a team-high 10 sacks.

--DeCoud has a team-high six interceptions for the Falcons.

--Seattle owns the NFL’s best spread record with a 10-4 ATS ledger. The Seahawks have covered the number in three straight and they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive game and six of their last seven. Pete Carroll’s team is 6-0 both SU and ATS at home going into Sunday night’s NFC West showdown vs. San Francisco.

--Philadelphia continues to own the NFL’s worst ATS record, going 3-10-1 vs. the number.

--In addition to Detroit, there are six more home underdogs in Week 16, including Jacksonville (+14.5 vs. New England), Philadelphia (+6 vs. Washington), Arizona (+5.5 vs. Chicago), Baltimore (+2.5 vs. the Giants), Kansas City (+7 vs. Indianapolis) and Seattle (+1 vs. San Francisco).

--During John Harbaugh’s five-year reign as Baltimore’s head coach, the Ravens are 1-3 ATS in four games as home underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Falcons at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (3.5, 50.5)

The Atlanta Falcons are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the NFC. The Detroit Lions are just looking to end their dismal season on a high note when the teams collide at Ford Field on Saturday night. NFC South champion Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons are wrapping up the road portion of their regular season but have lost two of their last three away from home.
Detroit enters the contest looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions on Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals, who were coming off their ninth consecutive defeat - an embarrassing 58-0 drubbing at the hands of Seattle. Detroit has not won since posting a 31-14 victory at Jacksonville on Nov. 4.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Falcons -3.5, O/U 50.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (12-2): Atlanta bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as it recorded a dominating 34-0 home triumph over the New York Giants on Sunday. The Falcons ran more than they passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries - not including three kneel-downs by their quarterbacks - while attempting just 28 passes. They ran 37 times and passed on 29 occasions in a victory over Philadelphia on Oct. 28. Matt Ryan broke two of his franchise records Sunday. Ryan has now thrown for 4,202 yards on 369 completions through 14 games. He had 4,177 passing yards last season and completed 357 passes in 2010.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-10): After winning 10 games last season, Detroit will be hard-pressed to record half as many victories this campaign. After facing Atlanta, the Lions host the Chicago Bears, who are very much in contention for a playoff spot. Coach Jim Schwartz is not planning on conceding anything despite his team's downward spiral. "You have something to prove every week regardless of winning streak, losing streak, what happened the previous week," he said. "People are competitive, people have pride. People have confidence in themselves. I think that's what helps people bounce back from stuff like this." Four of Detroit's last five losses have been by seven points or less.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions WR Calvin Johnson needs 182 yards to break Hall of Famer Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 receiving yards.

2. Ryan is the only QB in Falcons history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He is 33-4 at home and has won his last 11 starts at the Georgia Dome.

3. After throwing 41 touchdown passes last year, Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has only 17 this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Tale of the tape: Falcons at Lions
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Saturday night’s showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions.

Offense

The Falcons have been held under 20 points only once this season, that coming in a winning effort back on November 4th against the Cowboys. They scored in all four quarters en route to a 34-0 win over the Giants last Sunday. Michael Turner has re-established himself as a key cog in recent weeks, scoring a touchdown in five consecutive games. Since throwing five interceptions in Week 11 against Arizona, Matt Ryan has tossed seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions in the last four games.

Detroit is coming off one of its worst offensive showings of the season, putting up only 10 points in a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Prior to that, the Lions had scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Calvin Johnson racked up 121 receiving yards last week, but was held out of the end zone for the second straight game. Mikel Leshoure has scored at least one touchdown in four of Detroit’s last four contests.

Edge: Atlanta


Defense

Atlanta gave up 30 points in its last road game in Carolina two weeks ago, but responded with a shutout of the defending Super Bowl champions back at home last Sunday. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent defensively, giving up 31, 19, 23, 13, 30, and 0 points in their last six games overall. Their weakness has been against the run, where they allow five yards per rush on the road this season.

Speaking of problems defending the run, the Lions are giving up 4.9 yards per rush at home. Detroit has been absolutely torched lately, allowing at least 24 points in six straight games. With that being said, the Lions have still managed to outgain four of their last five opponents in terms of total yardage. They held the Falcons to 23 points in a losing effort right here at Ford Field last season.

Edge: Atlanta


Special teams

The Falcons should have a field day returning punts against a Lions special teams unit that allows a whopping 14.2 yards per return this season. The problem is, Atlanta has only managed 7.3 yards per return in that department. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is one of the best in the business, but hasn't been quite as steady as he was earlier in the season, connecting on 31-of-36 field-goal attempts to date.

Detroit is averaging below the league average in terms of both kickoff and punt returning, and won't catch any sort of break against a Falcons special teams unit that performs better than the league average in coverage. Atlanta is allowing only 7.0 yards per punt return, and 21.3 yards on kickoffs. Veteran Lions kicker Jason Hanson has missed only four of 32 field-goal attempts, but one of those misses came on perhaps his biggest kick, in overtime against the Texans on Thanksgiving Day.

Edge: Atlanta


Word on the street

“I thought we set the tempo early with our run game and it goes hand-in-hand when you’re able to run the football." Falcons head coach Mike Smith on his team returning to its roots by focusing on its ground game against the Giants last Sunday.

"You know, all we need is to have one play from every guy that we didn't have last week. You know, Calvin's going to have his, but every guy has to have a play that's made." Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan speaking about the top-heavy nature of his receiving corps.