The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta -3.5 500

Detroit - Under 50 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +10.5 500
Green Bay - Over 45 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -9.5 500
Carolina - Over 46.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
Miami - Under 43.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Over 41.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14 500
Jacksonville - Over 51 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +4.5 500
Kansas City - Under 41.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Dallas - Over 52.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia +4.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 46 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +3 500 DOD
Tampa Bay - Over 44 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Houston -9.5 500
Houston - Under 44 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 38.5 500

Cleveland - 4:05 PM ET Cleveland +12 500
Denver - Over 43.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET Baltimore +1 500
Baltimore - Over 47 500

Chicago - 4:25 PM ET Arizona +6.5 500
Arizona - Under 36.5 500

San Francisco - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco + 1 500 ( NFC WEST GOY)
Seattle - Over 40 500

[Kaptain]

gl today BUM....give em hell PODNA.....

Have a good weekend with FAMILY Podna

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks Kapt.......same to you......kick some butt bradda

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 17
The final week of the NFL regular season always offers unique challenges to sports bettors. Sharps evaluated the openers to see if oddsmakers had properly reflected “need” into the equation or all the playoff contenders. Though, as we go to press, some “meaningless” games still don’t even have a line yet because it’s not clear how many starters will be playing at key positions.

This makes it a very important time to pay attention to how the sharps are betting!

Because there’s such a dramatic dichotomy this week between games that matter and games that don’t (in terms of the playoff race), we’re going to split everything up into two groups. First, let’s go in rotation order through the games that matter to at least one team on the field for either playoff qualification, or seeding position. After that, we’ll then study the meaningless games to see who sharps bet the openers that did come up.

Games that matter, in rotation order…

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND:
Note that this has been time-changed to a late afternoon start. New England opened at -11, but was bet down to +10 by the Wise Guys. This is Sharp money going against the team that needs to win. Miami’s defense gets respect from the Sharps (and has all year). New England’s recent slump is also an influence here. Sharps assume a divisional dog with revenge that has a first year head coach and a rookie quarterback will show up with some intensity. THIS is Miami’s playoff game as it relates to setting a tone for next year according to the Sharps we’ve talked to. Note that we also saw a big move on the Under because of respect for Miami’s defense. An opener near 50 has been bet all the way down to 46. Potential weather influences are also in play here. If we don’t mention the Over/Under in the remaining games, it’s because there weren’t any sharp indicators on that total as of press time.

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI:
The Bengals opened at -3, but the dog has been receiving sharp support at that number. Most stores are now below the critical number…without Cincinnati money coming in to drive it back up. That tells you fairly dramatically that sharps like Baltimore, and will like them even more in two team teasers if they’re positioned to drive a dog of +1.5/+2.5 up to +7.5/+8.5. We also have Under money here, with an opener of 43 being bet down to 41. If you’re wondering what’s at stake in this game…Baltimore has a chance to catch New England for the #3 seed if the Ravens win and the Patriots are upset by Miami. That would mean a home game rematch against these very same Bengals instead of a home game against Indianapolis.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Houston was hit hard here by sharps as an opener of -4 is up to -7 on the assumption that Houston will play hard to clinch their #1 seed in the AFC, while Indianapolis has nothing to play for with their #5 seed set in stone. The line didn’t move past the key number of seven, which tells you sharps liked the Texans below the key number…but not at it.

PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS:
This game was bet down when it was announced that Michael Vick would be back to quarterback the Eagles because of an injury to Nick Foles. The Giants had opened at -9.5 in a game they had to win just to have a chance to reach the playoffs. Vick is such an upgrade over Foles that the number fell to NYG -7. Once again, we have the sharps betting a game to a key number, but not past it.

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON:
We have another time change here, as this one was time-changed to prime time for national coverage on NBC. The winner claims the NFC East title and a #4 seed in the NFC. Washington could still back into a Wildcard if they lose…though that option may be off the table by kickoff. The Redskins opened at -3.5 on their home field. Sharps bet the underdog Cowboys down to +3. Now that we’re sitting on the most popular key number, sharps will fade any public moves off the three before kickoff. The opening total of 50 has been bet down to 48.5 because of the potential for playoff intensity and weather.

CHICAGO AT DETROIT:
No movement here, as Chicago opened at -3 on the road and stood pat. Even though this is a must-win for the Bears, sharps do respect this home dog in a divisional game…and they’re not fond of laying points on the road with Jay Cutler. We’re hearing sharps believe this is the right line. They’ll fade any square move off the three before kickoff.

GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
Another time change game here, with a 4:25 ET start now in place. Similar situation to the game above with a three-point road favorite standing. Though, there are rumors of sharp action depending on news of Adrian Peterson’s abdomen injury. He’s missed some practice this week. Green Bay clinches the #2 seed and a bye if they win this game. Minnesota wins a Wildcard berth if they can spring the upset. Sharps would hit the Packers if they get confirmation before kickoff that Peterson will be less than 100%. Otherwise, they’ll fade any line moves caused by public money.

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
Not much interest in this game from sharps. Denver opened as a huge 16-point favorite. Sharps assume Denver will take care of business against a team that would clinch the #1 seed by losing.

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The 49ers also opened as a big favorite. The opener of -15 was bet up to -16.5. It didn’t go to the key number of 17 though, as oddsmakers are confident sharp money would come in on the defensive dog at that line. Arizona doesn’t need to lose the way Kansas City does! San Francisco will know by kickoff if they have a chance to catch Green Bay for the #2 seed.

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE:
Seattle opened at -10, and was bet up to -11. They’ve been winning by big margins recently, and sharps thought the opener offered value. Note that Seattle would take the NFC West if they win here and San Francisco gets upset by Arizona. Sharps are of the opinion that San Francisco will take care of business relatively early…which would make the second half meaningless for Seattle. That’s why there wasn’t a bigger move to a higher number. We can tell you now that sharps believe in Seattle, and are looking to back them in their Wildcard game against the NFC East winner.

Sharp action in meaningless games, going in rotation order…

NY JETS AT BUFFALO:
Buffalo opened at -3.5, but the line was bet back to the field goal when it became clear that Mark Sanchez would return to the Jets lineup to replace the injured Greg McElroy. The total has dropped from 41 to 39 because of the potential for weather. We’re hearing an additional drop maybe in the offing.

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH:
No line yet because of the injury situation at quarterback for Cleveland.

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE:
Tennessee opened at -4 and has stayed there. We’re hearing of no sharp interest in this one unless there’s surprising injury news before in the hours before kickoff.

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: No line yet.

CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS:
New Orleans has been bet up from -4 to -5.5 because sharps believe New Orleans will bring more intensity to the matchup. Carolina was lethargic in a quiet win over lowly Oakland last week, while the Saints beat Dallas on the road. The Saints and Drew Brees typically get sharp respect at home at reasonable prices.

OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: No line yet.

This will be a very heavily bet NFL weekend from the public because so many people are in Las Vegas for New Year’s. The big TV games in particular may see lines moves from square money. Keep an eye on that Sunday morning (and all day in the lead up to Dallas-Washington). Remember that sharps fade the public!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Week 17 opening line report

It’s the final week of the NFL regular season and many of the Week 17 games have postseason implications. None more so than games involving the NFC East.

Three teams – New York, Dallas and Washington – are still battling for playoff berths and the division crown is on the line Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Redskins.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5, 50)

There’s no team hotter than the Redskins, who are on a six-game winning streak straight up and against the spread. Washington prevailed 38-31 over Dallas in Week 12 at Cowboys Stadium and can wrap up the NFC East with a win Sunday night. The Redskins can also clinch a playoff berth if the Bears and Vikings both drop their respective finales. This betting line is a mirror image of the line in Week 12, when the Cowboys were 3.5-point home faves.

Green Bay at Minnesota (3, 46)

There’s no shortage of storylines heading into this clash between NFC North foes. The Vikings were written off after their Week 13 loss at Green Bay, but have rebounded with a three-game SU and ATS win streak to catapult them back into the playoff picture. Green Bay is coming off a 55-7 demolition of the Titans but still has some work to do to secure a first-round bye. The Packers are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run.

Kansas City at Denver (-16, 42)

The Broncos still have plenty to play for in their season finale and oddsmakers are putting them to the test with a daunting 16-point spread – their highest of the season. Denver couldn’t cover the 10 points in the previous Week 12 meeting at Arrowhead and Kansas City will relish the role of spoiler in this one. The Broncos can clinch a first-round bye and even home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and some help.

Houston at Indianapolis (5, 44)

Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck successfully led Indy to the playoffs with a seven-point win over Kansas City on Sunday, but Houston has plenty to play for heading into its finale. The Texans were held to just six points by the Vikings on Sunday and oddsmakers are banking on a rebound performance from the offense this week. Houston can clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and little luck.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL playoff scenarios: Week 17 hits and misses

Every spot in the AFC has been decided, while the NFC East and the conference’s last two berths are still up for grabs heading into the final weekend.

Here’s a look at Sunday’s games with playoff implications and the contests that don’t mean a darn thing.

Games with playoff implications:

Houston at Indianapolis
The Texans have clinched the AFC South and can earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in Week 17.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
This game is a must-win for the Giants, who also need help to earn a playoff berth.

Chicago at Detroit
The Bears need to take business in Detroit and hope Green Bay knocks off Minnesota in order to play January football.

Kansas City at Denver
Denver can earn a first-round bye with a win over the lowly Chiefs.

Arizona at San Francisco
The Niners can clinch the NFC West with a win.

St. Louis at Seattle
The Seahawks can clinch the NFC West with a win, combined with a San Francisco loss.

Green Bay at Minnesota
This is a must-win for both teams. Green Bay can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and Minnesota needs a win to clinch a playoff berth.

Miami at New England
The Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Denver and can earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win over the Fish paired with a Broncos loss.

Dallas at Washington
The Redskins can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Cowboys, who also need a win to clinch the division. Dallas has been eliminated from wild-card contention.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens were assured of a home playoff game after Sunday’s 33-14 triumph over the Giants and the Bengals punched their ticket to the postseason with a 13-10 victory over the Steelers.

Meaningless Games:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville at Tennessee

N.Y Jets at Buffalo

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Carolina at New Orleans

Oakland at San Diego

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Dallas at Washington
The Redskins look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Dallas. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 126.929; Buffalo 126.993
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.093; New England 145.612
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); Under

Game 305-306: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.262; Cincinnati 136.088
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.481; Pittsburgh 133.167
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.397; Indianapolis 128.003
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.324; Tennessee 128.863
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 126.476; NY Giants 130.988
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+7 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.004; Washington 138.157
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.177; Detroit 132.120
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.563; Minnesota 132.130
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 321-322: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.549; Atlanta 140.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 17; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 323-324: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.370; New Orleans 132.828
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+5 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.574; Denver 137.006
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 17; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+17); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.503; San Diego 137.082
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.599; San Francisco 139.614
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+17); Over

Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.510; Seattle 149.603
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 22; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 30

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NY JETS (6 - 9) at BUFFALO (5 - 10) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (7 - 8) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 4) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 152-112 ATS (+28.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (10 - 5) at CINCINNATI (9 - 6) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 110-143 ATS (-47.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 8) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (12 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 13) at TENNESSEE (5 - 10) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 11) at NY GIANTS (8 - 7) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 7) at WASHINGTON (9 - 6) - 12/30/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (9 - 6) at DETROIT (4 - 11) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in dome games this season.
DETROIT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 4) at MINNESOTA (9 - 6) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 9) at ATLANTA (13 - 2) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 8) - 12/30/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 66-38 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 45-22 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 13) at DENVER (12 - 3) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
DENVER is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 11) at SAN DIEGO (6 - 9) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 4 - 1) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 7 - 1) at SEATTLE (10 - 5) - 12/30/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
SEATTLE is 53-80 ATS (-35.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, December 30, 2012

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 0-6 ATS off an Over
Buffalo: 18-7 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

(TC) Miami at New England, 4:25 ET
Miami: 8-1 Under off a win by 10+ points
New England: 27-12 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the season

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 22-9 Under in the last 2 weeks of the season
Cincinnati: 15-6 ATS off a SU win

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 14-5 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
Pittsburgh: 3-11 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Houston: 18-6 ATS vs. conference opponents
Indianapolis: 10-1 Under vs. division opponents

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 15-6 Over off a home game
Tennessee: 1-10 ATS vs. division opponents

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
NY Giants: 6-0 Over at home after gaining 75 rushing yards or less

(TC) Dallas at Washington, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
Washington: 9-2 ATS vs. division opponents

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 9-29 ATS away in December
Detroit: 11-3 Over off an Under

(TC) Green Bay at Minnesota, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 10-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Minnesota: 11-2 Under at home after allowing 9 points or less

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 0-7 ATS off 4+ losses
Atlanta: 9-2 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-2 Over vs. division opponents
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS at home off an Over

Kansas City at Denver, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Denver: 9-1 ATS as a favorite

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-2 Over off a non-conference game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS off an Over

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 6-0 Over playing with same-season revenge
San Francisco: 9-2 ATS off a road loss

St. Louis at Seattle, 4:25 ET
St. Louis: 14-2 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Seattle: 7-0 ATS off an Over


(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)-- Gang Green (-3.5) hammered Buffalo 48-28 in season opener, back in happier days for Jets; Bills turned ball four times (-3), gave up an average of 9.9 ypa to NJ offense that is now dysfunctional at best, turning ball over 18 times in last five games (-14, were +1 in first 10 games). McElroy makes first road start here. Buffalo lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they gave up 18 or less points in all five wins (5-1) but are 0-9 allowing more than 18. Can the Jets score 19? They've now beaten Bills six games in row, winning last three here, by 9-24-16 points. Five of seven Buffalo road games went over total; three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (11-4)-- New England has to play to win, just in case Denver were to get upset by Browns; Patriots (-7.5) beat Dolphins 23-16 back in Week 13, when Miami kicked late FG to cover spread. Patriots won last five series games and nine of last 11, winning last three played here, by 10-31-3; they are 3-4 as home faves this year, winning at home by 10-3-6-35-28 points. 11 of last 13 Patriot games went over the total; five of last seven Miami games stayed under. Miami is 3-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 20-3-3-5-14 points- five of its eight losses are by 7 or less points. Favorites are 6-4 vs the spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-3 at home.

Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)-- Both teams will play a playoff game next week, would expect banged-up guys to sit out; Ravens (-6) crushed Cincy 44-13 back in season opener, averaging 8.8 ypa, but they've lost five of last seven visits to Queen City (won 24-16 here LY). Bengals won/covered six of last seven games; they won at Pittsburgh LW despite three turnovers, only 14 rushing yards, and allowing Dalton to be sacked six times. Ravens snapped 3-game skid by routing Giants; they're 4-3 on road, with five of seven games decided by three points or less. Home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Six of last seven Bengal games stayed under; three of last four Raven games went over.

Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)-- Indy coach Pagano's entrance to field will be an emotional moment, coming back from leukemia, but fact of matter is that Indy's spot in playoffs is set, while Texans need this win to clinch home field in AFC playoffs. Houston (-9) beat Colts 29-17 at home two weeks ago, blocking punt for a score- they had only one offensive TD, and didn't have any vs Vikings LW, in awful 23-6 home loss. Star RB Foster has heart issue, not sure if he plays in this game. AFC South home teams are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games, home dogs are 1-3. Houston is 6-1 on road, with five wins by 6+ points. Three of last four Houston games stayed under; under is 6-3-1 in last ten Indy games. Hard to overlook 352 rushing yards Colts allowed in win at Kansas City last week.

Jaguars (2-13) @ Titans (5-10)—Jax lost 11 of last 12 games, with only win 24-19 (+3) over Tennessee at home five weeks ago; they’re 5-7 in last 12 series games, with series splitting five of last six years; Jaguars lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-17-6 points. Titans lost at Jacksonville despite having seven sacks. Three of last five series totals were 33 or less. Jaguars outgained New England 436-349 last week, threw an INT in end zone on last play trying to tie game; they’re 5-2 as road underdogs this year, but lost 34-18/24-3 in last two away games. Tennessee lost 55-7 at Lambeau last week, after winning ugly Monday night games week before; they’re 1-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 3-3-4 points. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 2-4 if home favorite. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Titan home games stayed under the total.

Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)—Giants were putrid last two weeks, getting outgained 927-442, outscored 67-14 in pair of lopsided road losses; they need this win and help to make playoffs. Philly was 3-1 after nipping Giants 19-17 (-2.5) in Week 4, outrushing Big Blue 191-57; they had 10-yard advantage in field position, but had just one TD, three FGs in four red zone drives. Roof has fallen in on Eagles since; they’ve lost 10 of last 11 games, still have no wins by more than two points, with seven of last eight losses by 7+ points. With Foles breaking hand, Vick expected to start, which amounts to audition for whatever team sings him next spring. Iggles have now won eight of last nine games with Giants—they won last five visits here, winning by 6-19-7-7-7 points. Five of last seven series totals were 44+. NFC East home teams are 2-8 vs spread in divisional games, 1-5 if favored. Giants won five of last six home games, scoring 90 points in winning last two (Packers/Saints).

Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)—Chicago scored two defensive TDs in easy win at Arizona last week, week after Lions gave up two defensive scores in 38-10 loss in desert, Cardinals’ only win in their last 11 games. It was just second win in last seven games for Bears, who held off Detroit 13-7 (-6.5) back in Week 7, outrushing Lions 171-99; they were saved by four takeaways (+4), as Lions scored only seven points in four trips to Chicago red zone. Series has been swept seven of last eight year, with Chicago 5-2 in last seven visits here. Bears are 4-3 on road, with all four wins by 16+ points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 8-3-1 since 2008. Detroit lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread) despite Johnson setting single season record for receiving yards; they’ve lost last four home games, with three of four losses by 4 or less points. NFC North home underdogs are 2-2 vs spread in divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home dogs are 16-19-1 vs spread. Five of Bears’ last six road games went over the total, as did six of last nine Detroit games.

Buccaneers (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)—Atlanta has #1 seed in NFC wrapped up, would expect banged-up guys to be held out; Bucs lost last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), as friction between players/coaches has been reported. First of those five straight losses was Falcons’ 24-23 win (-1) in Tampa in Week 12, when Ryan passed for 345 yards (10.5 ypa) and Atlanta survived -2 turnover ratio. Falcons are 7-0 at home this year, 4-3 as favorites, with wins by 6-2-3-6-4-10-34 points. Bucs are 4-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-6-8-41 points (3-4 SU on road, but lost last two). Tampa Bay has one offensive TD, 10 turnovers on 23 drives in last two games, as Freeman was picked eight times- they were outscored 48-6 in first half of last three games. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, with home favorites 2-1. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under the total.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)—Carolina won four of last five games after 2-8 start; Saints have shot at finishing 8-8 after 0-4 start, which included a 35-27 loss (-2.5) in Charlotte in Week 2, in wild game (Saints outgained Carolina 486-463) that was Panthers’ first win in last five series games- they lost last three visits here, by 10-2-28 points. After going 0-12 on third down in 36-14 loss to Denver in Week 10, Panthers have converted 43-83 (51.8%) over last six games, as Newton’s mobility allows them to move chains. Carolina is 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road; dogs are 10-5 vs spread overall in their ’12 games. Saints scored 41-34 points in winning last two games; they won four of last five home games after losing first two, scoring 30.4 ppg in last five- they’re 3-2 as home favorite this year. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 if favored. Four of last six Carolina road games, five of Saints’ last seven games went over the total.

Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pittsburgh in rare spot as also-ran here; they’ve lost three in row and five of last six games- seven of their last eight games were decided by six or less points (3-5). Steelers (-1.5) turned ball over eight times with Batch at QB in hideous 20-14 loss on Lake Erie in Week 12, just their 2nd loss in last 18 games vs Cleveland; Browns outrushed them 108-49, started five drives (scored 17 points) in Steeler territory. Cleveland lost its last eight visits here, with seven of the eight by 11+ points. Browns are 2-4 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-7-14-4-3-22 points, with a win at Oakland. Steelers lost last three home games; they’ve been held under 100 rushing yards in last five games. Pitt has six sacks, three takeaways last week, still lost tough game to Bengals. Home teams are 3-5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, 1-3-1 if favored. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cleveland games, 1-3 in last four Steeler games.

Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)—Both teams need this win; Pack for home field/bye in playoffs, Vikings just to get in tournament. Green Bay (-8) beat Vikings 23-14 at home four weeks ago at Lambeau, despite Minnesota running ball for 240 yards- they’ve now won last five series games, and 10 of last 13. Series has been swept in seven of last eight years; Pack won four of last six visits here, winning 31-3/33-27 last two years. Green Bay won nine of last 10 games overall, four of last five on road since losing to emotional Colts in Week 6, when they blew 21-3 halftime lead; they’ve covered last six games when favored. Vikings won/covered all three games since Lambeau loss, running ball for 558 yards, as Peterson chases Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark; they’re 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Bucs in Thursday night game, 6-3 as underdogs. NFC North underdogs are 5-3-2 in divisional play, 2-2-1 if at home. Five of last six Green Bay games, four of last five Viking games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)— Broncos need win for first round bye in playoffs, which is huge; Denver (-10) had only TD/FG in four red zone drives in 17-9 win at Arrowhead in Week 12- Chiefs outrushed them 148-95, but passed for only 116 yards. Broncos won last five home games, by 31-20-7-8-22 points; they’ve covered seven of last nine games overall, all as favorites. Nightmare of season ends here for Chiefs, with housecleaning likely to follow; KC is 2-5 vs spread on road this year- they’ve lost last three weeks by 23-15-7 points, outscored 32-10 in first half of those three games. Chiefs’ only two TDs on last 33 drives both came on 80+-yard runs by Charles, on the first play of a half. AFC West favorites are 6-4 vs spread in divisional play, 3-3 at home. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; six of last eight Bronco games went over. This guy Mike McCoy, Denver’s OC? He has easiest job in America, because #18 does it for him.

Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)—Carson Palmer is out here; either Leinart or Pryor (or both) get nod here, vs underachieving Charger team likely playing last game for Norv Turner. San Diego (-1.5) opened season with 22-14 win at Oakland, in game where Bolts had a ridiculous 25-yard edge in field position, but only scored one TD (and four FGs) in five red zone drives- it was fourth straight series win for the road team, with San Diego winning 12 of last 15 overall. Oakland won last two visits here, 28-13/24-17, after losing previous seven trips in. Raiders lost seven of last eight games, with only win vs dreadful Chiefs; they’re 2-5 vs spread on road, losing last three away games by average score of 35-12. San Diego lost five of last seven games, with both wins in eastern time zone; they lost last three home games, scoring total of 33 points. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC West divisional games, 3-3 at home. Last five Raider games, last three San Diego home games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4-1)—Things could get ugly at Candlestick, where 49ers need to win in case Minnesota upsets the Packers; Niners (-7) waxed Redbirds 24-3 in Glendale in Week 8, holding Arizona to 7 yards rushing and 4.6 ypa. Series has been swept seven of last eight years; Cardinals lost last three visits here, by combined score of 85-23. Cardinals lost 11 of last 12 games; they gained total of 196 yards in the only win; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1-58 points (they won at Foxboro in Week 2)- none of their QBs are capable of moving ball here. SF is off pair of tough road games- they allowed 31 points in second half at Foxboro, then 28 in first half at Seattle last week- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread when 49ers allow 20+ points, 2-6 when they don’t. Home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-2-1 if favored. Four of last five Arizona games, six of last seven 49ers games went over the total.

Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)—Seattle is 7-0 at home this year, 4-0 as home favorite; they were underdog in first three home games this year- Hawks won last three at home by combined score of 128-20 (43-7 average). That said, Seahawks lost 19-13 (-2.5) at St Louis in Week 4, when Rams had three picks (+2), held Seahawks to 2-9 on 3rd down conversions and a TD/two FG on three red zone drives. That was just Rams’ second win in last 15 series games; they’ve lost last seven visits here, with six of seven losses by 10+ points. St Louis is 7-0 this season when they don’t lose turnover battle; they’re 4-0-1 SU in divisional games, tying Niners in Candlestick as 12-point dogs in Week 10- they’re 6-1 vs spread in true road games, losing away games by 4-17-3 points (won last three on road SU). Three of last four Ram games stayed under total; Seattle’s last five games went over. Rams covered last six games that stayed under, are 4-4 vs spread if game goes over.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)—Winner here takes NFC East title, which Washington hasn’t won since ’99; Skins won/covered last six games, including 38-31 (+3) at Dallas on Thanksgiving, when they outrushed Pokes 142-35, had three takeaways to offset Dallas’ 423 passing yards. Dallas won six of last eight series games, with five of last six series wins by 4 or less points- they’ve won three of last four played here, with average total in last five, 29. Last four Dallas games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’ve scored average of 21.6 points just in second half of their last seven games, as Romo-Bryant combo has clicked often. Cowboys are 5-2 vs spread on road, winning three of last four SU. Redskins won/covered last six games; they’re 3-3 as home favorites. Despite playing with two rookie QBs, Washington has had only two games this year where they’ve been minus in turnovers (+14). Four of last five games for both teams went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Baltimore is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games
Cleveland is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of St. Louis's last 18 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing Oakland

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco14-5-1 SU in its last 20 games

4:25 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 17

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 17's action.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 41)

These two AFC North rivals could do it all again next week in the conference wildcard game. If Baltimore wins and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, then the Ravens would host the Bengals in the first round. If they lose, they play the Indianapolis Colts to open the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rest its starters and protect injured players. Cincinnati is also locked into a postseason spot but will likely try to finish the year with some momentum. The Bengals fell to the Ravens in Week 1, 44-13 as 7-point road underdogs. However, they have managed to go 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games with Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Cleveland is banged up heading into this finale. Running back Trent Richardson is nursing a bum ankle and quarterbacks Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy are both dealing with shoulder injuries. All three are questionable for Week 17. Pittsburgh missed the playoff bus after a loss to Cincinnati last week. The Steelers say they want to finish the season strong and avoid a losing record for the first time since 2003. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cleveland, including a 20-14 loss as 1-point road favorites in Week 12.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+7, 46.5)

Houston is skidding at the wrong time. The Texans have lost two of their last three and home-field advantage in the postseason hangs by a string versus Indianapolis. If Houston losses, it could fall as far back as third in the AFC and lose that home edge. Running back Arian Foster is expected to play after leaving with an irregular heartbeat last week. The Colts have clinched the fifth seed in the AFC and will welcome head coach Chuck Pagano back to the sidelines after his battle with leukemia. The home team has covered in each of the past five meetings between these AFC South rivals.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 41.5)

Could the tank be on with Jacksonville? If the Jaguars lose and Kansas City falls to Denver, the Jags would be guaranteed the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to suit up for the finale. Tennessee’s front office could be singing for their supper in Week 17. The Titans brass is pointing the finger at head coach Mike Munchak, GM Ruston Webster and COO Mike Reinfeldt and asking what went wrong this year. Going out on a winning note wouldn’t hurt. The Jaguars have covered in each of the past four meeting with the Titans, including a 24-19 win in Week 12.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5, 45.5)

New York not only needs to win to make the playoffs but also needs Dallas, Chicago and Minnesota to lose in Week 17. The Giants have been outscored 67-14 in the last two games, however, those came on the road. New York is averaging 33.7 points at home and can break the franchise home scoring mark if they score at least 13 points Sunday. The Eagles nearly played spoiler to Washington last week and already have a win over the Giants – a 19-17 victory in Week 4. QB Michael Vick returns under center for Philadelphia after Nick Foles broke his hand in Week 16.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan said he would use the final contests as a chance to evaluate younger players for next season. The thing is, Ryan may not be around to see those talents in 2013. QB Mark Sanchez will get the start over an injured Greg McIlroy and RB Shonn Greene is trying to add a 1,000-yard rushing season to his free-agent resume. Buffalo desperately needs to end the year on a high note after losing three straight. Head coach Chan Gailey says he doesn’t plan on turning to his reserves in Week 17 and will roll out his usual lineup. New York is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Buffalo.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Chicago needs to win and hope Minnesota loses to Green Bay in order to make the postseason cut. The Bears may also be playing for head coach Lovie Smith’s job. Chicago appeared locked into a high postseason seed before losing six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS). Jay Cutler needs to put the team on his back. The Bears have passed for fewer than 150 yards in six of their last 10 games. Detroit could roll over for Chicago in hopes of bettering its draft position. A Week 17 loss could translate in a third-overall selection. And with Calvin Johnson breaking the single-season receiving record last week, the Lions have little motivation.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (N/A)

Atlanta has already locked up the top seed in the NFC and could choose to rest its starters in a meaningless Week 17 game. However, momentum could be very important to the Falcons, who have flopped in the postseason in past years. Tampa Bay looked like a playoff sleeper at times this season but folded down the home stretch, losing five in a row. QB Josh Freeman is a big reason for that slide, throwing eight interceptions in his last two games. Head coach Greg Schiano is aiming to go out on a positive note, so expect the Bucs to give everything they have left.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 54)

Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL in recent weeks, bringing a three-game SU and ATS winning streaking into the season finale. QB Cam Newton has compiled 688 passing yards, 183 yards rushing and seven combined touchdowns in that span. The Saints aren’t going to the postseason for the first time since 2008 but won’t lie down in the finale. Interim head coach Joe Vitt - always one to go for it – says Week 17 is a precursor to the 2013 season. New Orleans has been dismal ATS at home versus Carolina, going just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home tilts with the Panthers.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16, 42)

Denver is playing for the first-round bye Sunday and could even clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs if Houston losses to Indianapolis. The last five times the Broncos earned home field through the postseason, they went to the Super Bowl in four of those seasons. Kansas City just wants to get this season over with. Head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli are gone following Week 17. Kansas City, however is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 17 contests.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (N/A)

This is expected to be Norv Turner’s final game as the Bolts head coach with rumors of his dismissal swirling about for the majority of the season. RBs Ryan Matthews and Ronnie Brown are both injured so expect a lot of air time for Philip Rivers and the passing attack. Oakland won’t have QB Carson Palmer in Week 17 after he injured his chest. The Raiders turn the snaps over to backups Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor and will look to RB Darren McFadden to shoulder the load on offense. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with San Diego.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-16.5, 39.5)

The Niners, who need a win to clinch the NFC West, not only took one on the chin from the Seahawks in Week 16 but also lost one of their biggest weapons in the passing game. WR Mario Manningham is out for the year with a knee injury. San Francisco could go with a ground-heavy attack, pitting their fourth-ranked rushing attack versus Arizona’s 28th-ranked run defense. The Cardinals are poised for a fire sale this offseason and many players may be competing for their jobs this week. Surprisingly, Arizona is the best bet in Week 17, going 8-3 ATS in the season finale since 2001.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 41)

The Seahawks are in the postseason but can clinch the NFC West title with a victory over St. Louis and a loss for the 49ers. Seattle is coming off an impressive beating of San Francisco at home in Week 16, improving to 7-0 SU and ATS inside CenturyLink Field. The Rams haven’t been great on the road and now visit the toughest venue in the NFL. St. Louis is winless in its last seven trips to Seattle and has been outscored 199-76 in those games. The Rams are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall with the Seahawks. St. Louis is 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS versus NFC West rivals this season.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record is on the back burner with the Vikings’ playoff hopes resting on a win at home in Week 17. Minnesota, which has won three in a row SU and ATS, has lost five straight meetings with Green Bay (1-4 ATS). The Packers clinched the NFC North title but can earn the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win in the finale. That bye week could be crucial for a banged-up roster. The Packers could have WR Jordy Nelson back in action this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

The Patriots are cheering for the Colts and Chiefs Sunday, as a win over Miami and a Houston loss would end up giving New England the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a Denver loss would insure the No. 2 seed. Bill Belichick may want to run up the score early in order to give his starters some down time before the postseason. Miami has lost five in a row to New England (2-3 ATS) and has been dismal on the road this year. The Dolphins are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from Miami and now travel to chilly Gillette Stadium, where the temperatures will dip below 20 degrees with a chance of snow Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

These NFC East rivals play for all the marbles Sunday night. A win by either team earns the division crowns and a postseason ticket. Dallas had a three-game winning streak snapped in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday while Washington extended its successful stretch to 6-0 SU and ATS since a bye in Week 10. The Cowboys not only fight a classic rival but also the elements Sunday. The temperature is expected to be in the low 30s in D.C. and Dallas is just 4-11 SU in games played in sub-40 degree weather over the past 20 seasons. The Redskins defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and have covered in five straight games versus “America’s Team”.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 17 is one of the wildest times for NFL bettors. There are teams resting up for the playoffs, some looking ahead to next year and others fighting for their postseason lives. We talk with Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest moves on the board heading into Sunday’s games:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -3, Move: -1

Some online books have moved this line off the key number with money on the road Ravens. Rood is currently dealing Cincinnati -2.5, but says the sharp community came in hard on Baltimore +3 when they opened the Week 17 lines.

“The sharps grabbed the field goal,” Rood told Covers. “Our limits are a little shorter because it’s Week 17, but this was limit plays. Aside from that though, the action has been pretty balanced and there is a little lean toward the under.”

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +4, Move: +7

Public money is coming in strong on the Texans, with the No. 1 seed in the AFC still up for grabs. Rood says the dire straits in Houston outweigh the emotional push the Colts will get when head coach Chuck Pagano returns to the sideline for the first time since leaving the team for leukemia treatments in September.

“Houston is kind of playing for their playoff lives,” says Rood. “They don’t want to find themselves traveling to Denver for a playoff game down the road. Their coach (former Broncos player Gary Kubiak) knows all about Denver in the playoffs.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants - Open: -9.5, Move: -7.5

The announcement that Michael Vick will start in place of injured Eagles QB Nick Foles has pushed this spread two points. Rood says they adjusted the line to New York -8.5 after news of Vick’s return under center and the sharp money took it to just above a touchdown. However, he expects the public to come back on a home team scratching and clawing for a postseason spot.

“According to the players, it’s a plus,” Rood said when asked whether it was good or bad that Vick was playing. “But I have to think the public is going to side with the Giants. They’re not completely written off.”

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -10.5

Despite a flood of bets coming in on the Seahawks, most online books are reluctant to move the spread for this NFC West battle. Seattle has rolled over its last three opponents and has dominated the Rams at home in recent years. But, St. Louis has played divisional foes tough this year, posting a 4-0-1 SU record and a 5-0 ATS mark versus NFC West opponents.

“Seattle is getting a lot of public play at -10.5,” says Rood. “ How can you not bet them the way they’ve been playing the last three games?”

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Cowboys at Redskins

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-7)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (9-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -3, Total: 48.5

Two of the league's most storied rivals meet on Sunday night to likely determine the winner of NFC East division when Dallas visits a red-hot Washington team seeking its seventh straight win.

These teams met in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, and the Redskins absolutely dominated. The final score was 38-31, but the Cowboys had no answers for Robert Griffin III and the game was not as close as that score would suggest. Getting on the road could be good for the Cowboys though. They’re 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS away from home this season. Washington has won three in a row at home, SU and ATS. Griffin didn’t quite seem 100 percent recovered from his knee injury last year, as he threw for 198 yards and ran for just four yards in a win at Philadelphia.

Who will win this all-important game on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The biggest mismatch this time around could be the Cowboys' third-ranked passing offense against the Redskins' 30th-ranked pass defense. The weak Washington secondary will be hard-pressed to stop a red-hot Tony Romo, who in his past eight games has 17 TD and only 3 INT while averaging 8 yards per attempt. Romo attempted 62 passes in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Washington, but this time around he has top RB DeMarco Murray to keep defenses honest. Murray missed that game with a sprained foot, but he's done a nice job since his return to action in December with 380 total yards and 3 TD in four games. The Redskins have a great run defense though, ranking fifth in the NFL with 96 rushing YPG allowed. Another player in the midst of a hot streak is WR Dez Bryant, who has 808 yards and 10 TD during a seven-game scoring streak. His 12 TD catches on the year rank second in the NFL.

Griffin feels that his knee is in better shape this week than it was the previous Sunday against Philly when he carried the ball just two times. Now he's eager to improve upon his gaudy 104.1 passer rating (2nd in NFL) thanks to 20 TD passes and just 5 INT. This includes 6 TD passes and 0 INT in his past four home games. If Griffin's mobility is still affected by his sprained knee, RB Alfred Morris perfectly capable of handling a heavy workload, ranking fourth in the league with 1,413 rushing yards. This includes 113 yards on 24 carries in the Thanksgiving Day meeting with Cowboys. The Dallas defense has slipped to 21st against the pass (240 YPG) and 17th against the run (115 YPG).