The Bum's NFL December Best Bets !

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Eagles at Giants

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-11)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (8-7)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -7, Total: 46

The storylines are plentiful on Sunday when the Eagles visit the Giants.

New York must to win to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Big Blue has stumbled to a disastrous finish, losing back-to-back road games (at Atlanta and Baltimore) and getting outscored 67-14 in the losses. Getting back home should bode well for them, as they’re 5-2 SU (though just 3-4 ATS) at home. With rookie QB Nick Foles hurt (broken hand), the Eagles will turn back to Michael Vick under center. The Eagles have a five-game road winning streak (SU and ATS) against the Giants. In Philly in Week 4, Vick led a late FG drive to give the Eagles a 19-17 win over New York, which missed a 54-yard FG in the final seconds.

Can the Giants win by a comfortable margin over this NFC East rival? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

This will likely be the final game of Andy Reid's 14-year tenure in Philadelphia. His team has outgained New York this season, 356 to 353 total YPG, which is pretty remarkable considering the Eagles have a minus-23 turnover margin and the Giants are at +13. Vick hasn't played since Nov. 11 when he sustained a concussion in a loss to Dallas, but he is 3-1 as a starter against New York since he signed with Philly. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has also played well in the series with four career 100-yard games, including 123 yards the first time they met this year on Sept. 20. McCoy had missed four games with a concussion before returning the field last week, where he finished with 122 total yards in a loss to the Redskins. The Giants have not been a great run defense this year, allowing 130 rushing YPG on 4.6 yards per carry.

New York has dropped five in a row at home to Philly, and has also lost five of its past seven games this season after starting out 6-2 SU. Last Sunday's 33-14 blowout loss in Baltimore prevented the Giants from having a chance at the NFC East crown, but they can still make the playoffs with a win plus losses by Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas.Eli Manning has not been playing well down the stretch, failing to throw a touchdown in four of the past eight games. That number would've have been five had he not thrown a garbage touchdown late in the fourth quarter of the blowout loss in Baltimore. Part of his struggles has been due to top WR Hakeem Nicks being slowed by a knee injury. Nicks failed to catch a pass last week for the first time in his career. Philly's defense has been solid this year, allowing just 216 passing YPG and 7.0 YPA.

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Texans at Colts

HOUSTON TEXANS (12-3)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -6.5, Total: 41.5

Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano makes his return after a three-month absence due to leukemia when his playoff-bound Colts try to salvage a series split with the struggling Texans.

Not many would have expected this scenario three weeks ago, but it's the Texans who are actually the team that has something to play for in this one. Houston still has to win to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Colts are locked into the No. 5 seed. Houston is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS on the road this season. These teams just met in Houston in Week 15, with the Texans jumping out early and hanging on for a 29-17 win. They outgained the Colts 417-272 in the game. RB Arian Foster had 165 rushing yards in that victory, but missed most of last week’s loss to Minnesota because of an irregular heartbeat. He reportedly had been cleared medically to re-enter that game, which wound up being a 23-6 home defeat.

Can the Texans sew up the top seed in the AFC with a key road win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Texans can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but a loss could make them the No. 3 seed and force them to play again next week. Their offense really sputtered, both with and without Foster, last Sunday against the Vikings. Their six points were a far cry from their average of 27 PPG this season and Foster (1,328 rush yards, 2nd in NFL) was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. But he has destroyed the Colts in his career, averaging 164 rushing YPG, including 165 yards just two weeks ago. His Houston squad still averages 134 rushing YPG, while the Colts give up a hefty 139 rushing YPG on 5.1 yards per carry. Indy was gashed for 352 rushing yards on 8.0 YPC by the Chiefs last Sunday. The Colts pass defense is pretty average (236 YPG, 7.1 YPA), and will need to find a way to slow down Texans star WR Andre Johnson who leads the AFC with 1,457 receiving yards. Johnson caught 11 passes for 151 yards in the game versus Indy two weeks ago. Despite the offensive talent, Houston is a dreadful 25.5% on third downs in December, going 1-of-11 in the loss to Minnesota last week.

Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano will return to the sidelines for the first time since Week 3. He has big shoes to fill though, as the Colts are 8-2 SU under interim coach Bruce Arians. But they have been shaky in the past two games, losing by a dozen points to Houston and then nearly falling to lowly Kansas City, pulling out a late TD for a 20-13 victory. Andrew Luck surpassed the 4,000-yard passing plateau last week, establishing a new NFL rookie record for a single season. Despite the gaudy yardage, Luck has thrown more incomplete passes than completions in the past four games. Two weeks ago in Houston, he connected on just 13-of-27 throws for 186 yards and 2 TD. He was also sacked five times against the excellent Texans defense that is anchored by DL J.J. Watt who has 20.5 sacks this year, two off the NFL single-season record. Houston did a nice job on star WR Reggie Wayne (107 catches) two weeks ago limiting him to 14 yards on three catches. The Texans pass defense has been OK (228 pass YPG allowed), but that's nothing compared to Houston's run-stop unit's 99 rushing YPG allowed (4.2 YPC). Turnovers could also play a big role in this game, as Houston sits at +14 for the season while Indianapolis has a minus-14 turnover ratio.

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Packers at Vikings

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-4)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 46

Green Bay tries to complete a perfect December when it visits playoff-hopeful Minnesota on Sunday.

The Packers can clinch a first round playoff bye with a win, while the Vikings can clinch a postseason berth with a victory. The Packers have trounced the Vikings of late, beating them five in a row SU (4-1 ATS). That included a 23-14 victory at Minnesota earlier this month at Green Bay, a game in which the Packers were desperately looking for a workaround with their patchwork offensive line. Green Bay has also won all three of its games since then, including last week’s 55-7 blowout of Tennessee. The Vikings’ best hope is once again Adrian Peterson, who had 210 rushing yards in the Week 13 loss to the Packers. But Minnesota has won all three games since that defeat.

Can the Vikings finally end their series losing skid to the Packers? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Green Bay has some good news on the injury front, as it appears both WR Jordy Nelson (hamstring) and RB Alex Green (concussion) will return to the field this week. However, the status is still uncertain for WR Randall Cobb (ankle). There is nothing uncertain about how well Aaron Rodgers plays indoors, as he has thrown for 288 YPG, 14 TD and 2 INT in his four dome games in 2012. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Cobb and Nelson, Rodgers can still lean on WRs James Jones and a finally-healthy Greg Jennings as reliable options to throw the football to. Jones has 13 touchdowns this season and Jennings has owned the venue formerly known as the Metrodome, catching 14 passes for 299 yards and 4 TD in his past two trips to Minnesota. The Packers backfield has been a walking wounded this year, but veteran Ryan Grant was a great find on the waiver wire, as he racked up 114 total yards in last week's 55-7 laugher over Tennessee. The Vikings defense is not easy to run against though, as they allow 108 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, and just stuffed a great Texans run defense, holding them to 34 yards on 16 carries.

Peterson did not play during the final drive of last week's win in Houston due to a sore abdomen, but he will start on Sunday. He needs just 102 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for the season, and he has always run well against Green Bay (11 G, 1,243 yards, 113 YPG, 5.6 YPC, 8 TD). It also makes more sense for Minnesota to run the football with its team average of 5.4 YPC, which is nearly as good as its paltry 5.6 YPA from QB Christian Ponder. The second-year pro has been awful against the Packers in his young career, completing 45% of his passes for 528 yards (5.8 YPA), 3 TD and 5 INT in three meetings. With top WR Percy Harvin (ankle) out for the season, Ponder will look mostly for TE Kyle Rudolph who has four touchdowns over the past six games. Green Bay's pass defense is strong, surrendering just 218 passing YPG (6.0 YPA) this season. And it will be even stronger if S Charles Woodson (collarbone) is able to return to the field this week, which looks like it could happen.

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NFL Week 17 Preview: Bears at Lions

CHICAGO BEARS (9-6)

at DETROIT LIONS (4-11)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 44.5

Chicago tries to stay in the playoff hunt when it visits slumping Detroit on Sunday.

The Bears need to win and get some help to make the postseason. They’ve beaten the Lions SU in eight of their past nine meetings (4-4-1 ATS) including a 13-7 win at home in Week 7, in which they completely smothered the Detroit offense. The Lions have lost seven in a row SU (1-6 ATS), and they’ve struggled even more than usual lately. With their receiving corps ravaged by injuries, they’ve managed just 26 offensive points the past two weeks. The Bears snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a win at Arizona last week. They’re 4-3 SU and ATS on the road.

Can the Lions end the Bears playoff hopes on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Chicago certainly has some injury concerns, but it appears that both RB Matt Forte (ankle) and LB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) will be able to play this week. Forte has dominated the Lions in his career, racking up 1,075 total yards and 7 TD in his past nine games against them. Urlacher hasn't played since Week 13, but he can only help an already-excellent defense that has a +16 turnover ratio and allows just 315 total YPG (5.1 yards per play). The Bears run defense was outstanding last week, holding the Cardinals to 29 rushing yards on 19 carries. Even with Forte not 100 percent, the duo of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall should be able to excel against a Detroit passing defense giving up 222 passing YPG. Marshall is finishing up a career year that has seen him pile up 113 receptions for 1,466 yards and 11 TD.

Detroit has been a terrible bet at home this year, going 1-5-1 ATS (2-5 SU) at Ford Field. But as long as WR Calvin Johnson is healthy, the Lions have a chance to win. He broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yardage record as part of his 11-catch, 225-yard breakout performance in Saturday's 31-18 defeat to Atlanta. Although Johnson has now gained at least 100 yards in eight straight games, he didn't find much room to operate against the Bears' top-notch secondary in Week 7, fishing with a season-low three catches and 34 yards. Despite Chicago's prowess in the passing game and ability to pick off passes, airing out the football is what Detroit does best. QB Matthew Stafford has thrown for an eye-popping 4,695 yards, and is just 3-5 yards away from becoming the first player ever to throw for 5,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.

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Week 17 Tips

December 29, 2012

All six playoff spots in the AFC are spoken for heading into Week 17, even though the seedings can change with different results. The NFC still has two postseason berths up for grabs going into the final week, as five clubs have an opportunity to make the playoffs. The Redskins and Cowboys hook up in Washington for the NFC East title, while the Vikings control their destiny for the final Wild Card berth in the NFC. We'll take a look at the three day games that have an impact on the NFC playoff race, starting with the big long shot in New Jersey.

Eagles at Giants (-7, 46) - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia was the league's biggest disappointment in 2011 and is a nominee for that same honor in 2012 with a 4-11 record. The Eagles can spoil New York's shot at returning to the postseason by pulling off the season sweep of their division rivals. The Giants started their Super Bowl run last season with a home victory over the Cowboys in Week 17 to qualify for the playoffs. The task isn't as easy this time around, as New York needs a win plus losses by Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas just get to the Wild Card round.

The Eagles welcome back Michael Vick to the lineup after the quarterback has missed the last six games with a concussion. Vick led Philadelphia to a 19-17 triumph as a 1 ½-point favorite way back in Week 4, the last home victory for the Eagles. Since that win, the Eagles have covered three times in 11 tries, but all three ATS wins came away from Lincoln Financial Field.

The Giants have been outscored, 67-14 in road losses at Atlanta and Baltimore the last two weeks. The Ravens ran out New York, 33-14 as short home 'dogs last Sunday as Baltimore racked up 533 yards of offense. Tom Coughlin's club owns a 2-5 SU/ATS record the last seven weeks, while scoring 16 points or less in the previous four defeats. New York has been one of the top 'under' teams in the league by producing the 'under' 11 times this season, including in six of the last seven weeks.

Bears (-3, 45) at Lions - 1:00 PM EST

The only way to for Chicago to save its season is with consecutive road wins the final two weeks. The Bears completed the first obstacle with flying colors in a 28-13 blowout of the Cardinals as seven-point favorites, as Lovie Smith's defense scored a pair of touchdowns. Now, Chicago needs a victory at Ford Field, coupled with a Minnesota loss at Green Bay to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

The Lions enter Sunday's contest trying to finish off a season to forget at 4-11 following last Saturday's blowout loss to Atlanta. Detroit, just one season removed from making the playoffs, has allowed at least 31 points in five losses during a seven-game skid, while losing three home games by four points or less. The Lions had plenty of opportunities in their last meeting at Chicago in Week 7, but committed a handful of turnovers in the red zone in a 13-7 loss.

Since starting the season at 7-1, the Bears have won just two of their previous seven contests. Chicago has covered only twice in this cold stretch with victories over Minnesota and Arizona. The Bears' offense can shoulder the blame, scoring 17 points or less in all six losses this season, as the only game in which they put up less than 17 was the victory over Detroit. The 'over' is 5-2 in Chicago's seven road games, as one of the 'unders' came with a 50 ½ total in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay.

Packers (-3 ½, 46) at Vikings - 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay needs a win to secure a first-round bye, while Minnesota goes for its fourth straight victory and a shot at the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The Vikings are staying alive thanks to solid road triumphs at St. Louis and Houston, including a 23-6 dismantling of the AFC South champion Texans as 7 ½-point 'dogs last week.

Minnesota has quietly turned into one of the league's best home squads with a 6-1 record at **** of America Field, with the lone loss coming on a Thursday night in October to Tampa Bay. The Vikings own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as a home 'dog this season, including wins over the Bears, Lions, and 49ers. Leslie Frazier's team has dropped five straight meetings with the Packers dating back to 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 SU/ATS the last three trips to Minneapolis.

The Packers were the talk of the NFL last season at 15-1, but fizzled out in a second-round playoff loss to the Giants. Green Bay has flown under the radar this season at 11-4, while winning nine of their last 10 games. In two of their four losses, Green Bay has squandered late fourth-quarter leads at Seattle and Indianapolis, as the Packers could have been the top seed in the NFC, but also may play the first weekend with a loss plus a San Francisco win. Mike McCarthy's team has hit the 'under' in five of the last six games, as you can blame Green Bay's offense for an 'over' in a 55-7 rout of Tennessee last Sunday.

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Total Talk - Week 17

December 29, 2012

Week 16 Recap

The ‘under’ went 9-7 last weekend and on the season the ‘under’ stands at 114-110-1. Like any other week, gamblers caught a couple second-half ‘over’ tickets, which helped the game outcome go ‘over’ as well. Oddsmakers had three totals listed at 40 points or less last Sunday and all three of those games jumped ‘over’ their numbers. It’s just something to think about as we head into Week 17, which is arguably the toughest week to handicap.

Meaningful or Meaningless

All of this week’s games are divisional battles, so we’ll provide a quick handicap of the entire afternoon board.

1:00 p.m. ET

Jets at Bills: These teams combined for 76 in Week 1 as the Jets won 48-28 at home. The total for this matchup is hovering around 39 points and it’s hard to see either club duplicate their offensive efforts from the opener. Both teams have been held to 17 points or less the past three weeks.

Ravens at Bengals: Even though these teams are in the playoffs, this game is meaningless. The Bengals are locked into the sixth seed and the Ravens are most likely the fourth seed unless they win and the Patriots lose. Baltimore routed Cincinnati 44-13 in Week 1.

Browns at Steelers: The Browns will go with third-stringer Thad Lewis (Duke Blue Devils) at QB, which could set up an ‘under’ look. The LVH sent out a total on Saturday of 34 ½ points. At home, the Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 and only one team (San Diego) scored more than 13 points.

Texans at Colts: It looks like a go for all starters here, especially with home-field on the line for the Texans. Colts are locked into the fifth seed so you wonder if they pull starters if the game is out of hand. Houston just beat Indy 29-17 and the game barely went ‘under’ the closing number of 48. Make a note that the Texans have scored 43 and 29 points off a loss this season and they just got embarrassed by the Vikings (6-23) last Sunday.

Jaguars at Titans: Four of the last five encounters have gone ‘under’ in this series, including Jacksonville’s 24-19 win over Tennessee on Nov. 25. That total was 45, this week’s is 42.

Eagles at Giants: New York still has a shot for the playoffs and the Birds will go with Michael Vick at QB, which could be his last game with the team. High total (46) but hard to ignore that the Giants have surrendered 27, 34 and 33 points the last three weeks. Philadelphia’s defense is just as bad, allowing 30-plus in five of the last seven games.

Bears at Lions: Chicago beat Detroit 13-7 in a MNF affair in mid-October. This game could get chippy and a lot of trash talk has been spewing this week. The Bears’ offense has trouble scoring, yet the Lions allow a ton of points. At Ford Field, they haven’t held an opponent under 20 this season.

Buccaneers at Falcons: The line opened 47 and dropped to 46. How much playing time Atlanta’s first-stringers get is unknown. After a nice midseason run, the Bucs have scored a combined 34 points the last three weeks, all ‘under’ tickets.

Panthers at Saints: This is the highest total (54) for Week 17 and you would expect the ball to be rolled out for this matchup. The Saints are an offensive machine and against weak teams, they light up the scoreboard. Carolina has potential to score too and it did beat New Orleans 35-27 in Week 2. Something tells me that New Orleans, in particular Drew Brees, will be looking for revenge.

4:25 p.m. ET

Dolphins at Patriots: If Houston loses, then this game becomes important for New England. Otherwise, the Patriots could rest and get ready for their playoff game next week. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 at home. Snow and wind is expected in the area, which is always tough to handicap.

Packers at Vikings: Green Bay stopped Minnesota 23-14 in Week 12 and the closing total (47) wasn’t threatened. Lots of eyes will be on this game with AP’s charge at the rushing record. Vikings are on a 4-1 run to the ‘under’ and surprisingly, Green Bay has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight.

Chiefs at Broncos: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight in this series and the games have been real ugly. Low total here and even though Peyton gets all the press, the Denver defense has been real good lately.

Raiders at Chargers: The Raiders will give Terrelle Pryor the shot at QB, which makes this game a little interesting. San Diego has scored 7, 13 and 13 in its last three home games, all easy ‘under’ tickets.

Cardinals at 49ers: San Francisco stopped Arizona 24-3 on the road in late October and the ‘under’ (37) cashed rather easily. The 49ers have been on an ‘over’ run (5-0) and the defense does look weak with DT Justin Smith.

Rams at Seahawks: St. Louis beat Seattle 19-13 in Week 4. The Seahawks are much improved team, especially on offense. The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight and seven of the last eight game for Seattle.

Line Moves

The smart money took it on the chin last week with a 2-4 record. Five of those moves leaned to the ‘under’ and that’s the case again this week. Here are all of the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Miami at New England: Line opened at 49 ½ and dropped to 46
Baltimore at Cincinnati: Line opened at 43 and dropped to 41

Under the Lights

Last Saturday night the Falcons beat the Lions 31-18 and the game barely snuck ‘under’ the closing total of 50. Those who had the ‘under’ were fortunate since the Falcons settled for a late field goal and the Lions couldn’t score on the goal line at the end of the game. On Sunday, Seattle blasted San Francisco and cashed ‘over’ tickets for the fifth consecutive week. This season, the ‘under’ has gone 30-18 (63%) in primetime games.

Washington at Dallas: Three of the last four meetings in this series have gone ‘over’ the total, which includes the Redskins’ 38-31 road win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. What some might forget about that game is Dallas was winning 3-0 after the first quarter and then RG3 led the Washington offense to 28 unanswered points in the second quarter. The ‘Skins did whatever they wanted offensively and so did Dallas quarterback Tony Romo (441 yards). For this matchup, RG3 could still be nursing a knee injury. Last week he only ran twice and he’s averaging close to eight carries a game. Both teams come into this game with four of their last five games going ‘over’ the number. This line opened at 50 and dropped to 48 at a few outfits but is now hovering around 49 points. If you get both teams to 24, you’ll have a winner provided it doesn’t end in a tie. Considering the playoff implications, you could get a tight game but at the same time, neither team should lay down in the end either.

Fearless Predictions

For the third straight week, we’ve turned up in the red. Fortunately, we stopped some of the bleeding with the Jets team total under but the deficit was still $220. On the season, we’re in the black for $620 and looking ahead to the postseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Happy New Years to you and yours!

Best Over: Saints-Panthers 54
Best Under: Eagles-Giants 47
Best Team Total: Over 29 ½ Saints

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Saints-Panthers 43
Under Dolphins-Patriots 55
Under Falcons-Buccaneers 54 1/2

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 17

December 29, 2012

We don’t have the type of drama for playoff positioning in Week 17 like most of us like to watch unfold, but you really can’t ask for much more when the Cowboys and Redskins are playing for all the marbles on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys have to win or they’re out, but the Redskins could still get in with a loss and little help from the Packers and Lions.
By the time Sunday night’s game kicks off, the Redskins will know what they have to do. The real prize here is winning the NFC East, which is what is at stake here. Whoever wins gets a home game next week in the playoffs.

The Redskins opened minus-3 ½ (EVEN) and the number was pushed down to 3 by some Cowboys money, but the majority of the action from the public has been on the Redskins. Because of pure volume, the Redskins are back to their opening number of -3 ½ (EVEN).

The Redskins have covered the past five meetings with the Cowboys, including their 38-31 Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas, but this will be the first time in their last 10 meetings that the Redskins are favored. The last time occurred in 2007 and that game happened in the final week as well, but the Cowboys came in with a 13-2 record and the NFC locked up, so Dallas rested their starters for most of the game. The Redskins won and covered the nine-point spread, and ensured a playoff berth, which was their last postseason appearance.

Washington has won six games in a row and it would be a great story to see a team that started 3-6 make the playoffs, something that hasn’t happened since 1996. Coach Mike Shanahan remembers ‘96 well because it was those Jaguars, who barely made the playoffs -- thanks to a missed Morten Anderson missed chip shot in the closing seconds of Week 17 -- that beat his 13-3 Broncos in the divisional playoff game.

Everyone is talking about Robert Griffin III and their top ranked rushing offense, but few people are talking about the anxiety that Shanahan might be feeling right now. He was once called a genius when winning back-to-back Super Bowls with Denver, but that quickly wore off when John Elway retired and he went 1-3 in the playoffs over his final 10 years in Denver.

His final year in Denver saw his team fade in the final three weeks -- needing only one game to clinch a playoff berth -- and the Broncos lost all three. His first two seasons in Washington have been dismal, but now he’s on the verge of carving a new niche for his legacy with his pistol offense that creates big plays and he has the perfect field general to run it.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is also at a crossroads and has had the world questioning every part of his game, especially his heart. Romo has come up big for the Cowboys winning five of his last seven games and has thrown 17 touchdown passes to only three interceptions in his last eight games. But none of that matters if he doesn’t win Sunday night, which you could say is the biggest game of his career. He has a chance to rewrite the history books that already have him labeled as gutless when it counts the most.

The interesting aspect of this game could be that the Redskins will be guaranteed a playoff spot by the time the game begins. The Packers could beat the Vikings, just as the Lions could beat the Bears. How much different will the Redskins mindset be knowing they can still get in with a loss? It would seem to take a little bit of the edge off that has been driving them for the last six weeks to win in do or die situations.

Here’s a look at how some of the other Week 17 games have moved this week:

* The Bills got blasted in their season opener against the Jets, but things have changed dramatically since then. The Bills opened as 3 ½-point favorites and are now -3. Not too many bettors got excited about Mark Sanchez being named the starter for the Jets.

* The Patriots could be playing in snow Sunday which has dropped the total from 48 ½ to 46 for their game against the Dolphins. The Pats opened -10 and have been bet up to -10 ½.

* The Bengals opened -3 ½ (EVEN) and Ravens money has pushed the game down to -2 ½.

* The Steelers game has been of the board most of the week because of the Browns QB situation. When Thaddeus Lewis was announced as the starter the Steelers were posted at -10.

* The Texans are playing for home field throughout the playoffs, and they opened as four-point favorites at Indianapolis. That number was driven all the way to -7, but Colts money came in and it sits at -6.5.

* The Titans have been bet up from 4-point favorites against the Jaguars to -4 ½. The Titans are the last team the Jaguars beat.

* The Giants aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but they’re basically playing for nothing and the combination of that reality and Michael Vick returning has got some believing in the Eagles. The Giants went from -9 to -7.

* The Bears opened as three-point road favorites and Lions money has moved the Bears to -3 (EVEN). * The Packers have gone from -3 ½ road favorites to -3 (-120) at Minnesota. The Vikings are playing for a playoff berth and the Packers are trying to secure a first round bye.

* The Saints opened -4 ½ for their home game against the new and improved Panthers and it has been bet up to -5.

* The Broncos have stayed at -16.5 all week against the Chiefs. If Denver wins, they at least secure a first-round bye. If the Colts beat the Texans and Denver wins, they’ll have home field throughout the playoffs.

* Terrelle Pryor gets a shot at QB with the Raiders at San Diego, but the Chargers are still -9 ½. Pryor could give the Raiders a dimension they’ve been missing all year because he can make plays on his own when things break down, and they break down a lot with the Raiders.

* The 49ers have been bet from -15 ½ to -16 ½ for their game against the Cardinals. The 49ers can clinch the NFC West and perhaps a first-round bye with a win if the Vikings beat the Packers.

* The Seahawks need some help from the Cardinals to win the NFC West. Good luck with that. Seattle opened -10 and has been bet up to -11 against the Rams, a squad who hasn’t lost in divisional play and is 10-3 as an underdog this season. Seattle has scored 150 points in their last three games, but what does Pete Carroll do when he scoreboard watches and sees the 49ers winning 27-3 in the third quarter. Does he risk Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch playing late in the game?

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Gridiron Angles - Week 17

December 29, 2012

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 12-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since October 13, 2002 on the road following a game where they did not have a goal to go attempt.

NFL PLAY AGAINST ATS TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-10 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since October 22, 2000 as a 7+ favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of -1 or worse per game.

NFL OVER TREND:

-- The Steelers are 13-0-1 OU (11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2007 as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least 10.2 points lower than their season-to-date average.

NFL UNDER TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-12 OU (-9.5 ppg) since October 29, 1995 as a road dog the week after as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- In Week 17, home teams when the line is within 3.5 points of a pick are 79-50-3 ATS. Active in five games this week.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Bills are 16-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) since 1993 when they are off a game in which they rushed for 135-plus yards, fumbled at least three times and lost at least one, as long as they scored at least ten points.

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SNF - Cowboys at Redskins

December 30, 2012


DALLAS COWBOYS (8-7) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (9-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Washington -3 (-120) & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Redskins -3.5 & 50

Two of the league's most storied rivals meet on Sunday night to likely determine the winner of NFC East division when Dallas visits a red-hot Washington team seeking its seventh straight win. These teams met in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, and the Redskins absolutely dominated. The final score was 38-31, but the Cowboys had no answers for Robert Griffin III and the game was not as close as that score would suggest.

Getting on the road could be good for the Cowboys though. They're 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS away from home this season. Washington has won three in a row at home, SU and ATS.

Griffin didn't quite seem 100 percent recovered from his knee injury last year, as he threw for 198 yards and ran for just four yards in a win at Philadelphia. Washington's other two NFC East foes have defended RG III much better the second time they faced him than they did the first time. The Eagles allowed four passing touchdowns and just one incompletion while allowing him to rush for 84 yards in the teams' first meeting, a 31-6 Washington blowout. The second time around, Griffin had just four rushing yards and less than 200 passing yards as Philadelphia outgained the Redskins by nearly 100 total yards in a game that wasn't decided until the final play. The Giants gave up 480 total yards to Washington, including 258 passing yards and 89 rushing yards to Griffin in the teams' first meeting, but then just 163 passing yards and 72 rushing yards (46 of which were on one play) to Griffin as the Redskins scored only 17 points in the teams' second meeting.

Dallas was a bit shell-shocked in its first meeting against Washington, falling behind 28-3 in the first half in a game in which RG III would end with more than 300 passing yards. Also consider that teams off a close home loss by 3 or fewer points are 29-11 ATS (73%) over the past 10 seasons in the second half of the year when the line is between +3 and -3.

The biggest mismatch this time around could be the Cowboys' third-ranked passing offense against the Redskins' 30th-ranked pass defense. The weak Washington secondary will be hard-pressed to stop a red-hot Tony Romo, who in his past eight games has 17 TD and only 3 INT while averaging 8 yards per attempt. Romo attempted 62 passes in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Washington, but this time around he has top RB DeMarco Murray to keep defenses honest. Murray missed that game with a sprained foot, but he's done a nice job since his return to action in December with 380 total yards and 3 TD in four games.

The Redskins have a great run defense though, ranking fifth in the NFL with 96 rushing YPG allowed. Another player in the midst of a hot streak is WR Dez Bryant, who has 808 yards and 10 TD during a seven-game scoring streak. His 12 TD catches on the year rank second in the NFL.

Griffin feels that his knee is in better shape this week than it was the previous Sunday against Philly when he carried the ball just two times. Now he's eager to improve upon his gaudy 104.1 passer rating (2nd in NFL) thanks to 20 TD passes and just 5 INT. This includes 6 TD passes and 0 INT in his past four home games.

If Griffin's mobility is still affected by his sprained knee, RB Alfred Morris perfectly capable of handling a heavy workload, ranking fourth in the league with 1,413 rushing yards. This includes 113 yards on 24 carries in the Thanksgiving Day meeting with Cowboys. The Dallas defense has slipped to 21st against the pass (240 YPG) and 17th against the run (115 YPG).

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 17

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 17's action.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 41)

These two AFC North rivals could do it all again next week in the conference wildcard game. If Baltimore wins and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, then the Ravens would host the Bengals in the first round. If they lose, they play the Indianapolis Colts to open the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rest its starters and protect injured players. Cincinnati is also locked into a postseason spot but will likely try to finish the year with some momentum. The Bengals fell to the Ravens in Week 1, 44-13 as 7-point road underdogs. However, they have managed to go 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games with Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Cleveland is banged up heading into this finale. Running back Trent Richardson is nursing a bum ankle and quarterbacks Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy are both dealing with shoulder injuries. All three are questionable for Week 17. Pittsburgh missed the playoff bus after a loss to Cincinnati last week. The Steelers say they want to finish the season strong and avoid a losing record for the first time since 2003. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cleveland, including a 20-14 loss as 1-point road favorites in Week 12.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+7, 46.5)

Houston is skidding at the wrong time. The Texans have lost two of their last three and home-field advantage in the postseason hangs by a string versus Indianapolis. If Houston losses, it could fall as far back as third in the AFC and lose that home edge. Running back Arian Foster is expected to play after leaving with an irregular heartbeat last week. The Colts have clinched the fifth seed in the AFC and will welcome head coach Chuck Pagano back to the sidelines after his battle with leukemia. The home team has covered in each of the past five meetings between these AFC South rivals.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 41.5)

Could the tank be on with Jacksonville? If the Jaguars lose and Kansas City falls to Denver, the Jags would be guaranteed the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to suit up for the finale. Tennessee’s front office could be singing for their supper in Week 17. The Titans brass is pointing the finger at head coach Mike Munchak, GM Ruston Webster and COO Mike Reinfeldt and asking what went wrong this year. Going out on a winning note wouldn’t hurt. The Jaguars have covered in each of the past four meeting with the Titans, including a 24-19 win in Week 12.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5, 45.5)

New York not only needs to win to make the playoffs but also needs Dallas, Chicago and Minnesota to lose in Week 17. The Giants have been outscored 67-14 in the last two games, however, those came on the road. New York is averaging 33.7 points at home and can break the franchise home scoring mark if they score at least 13 points Sunday. The Eagles nearly played spoiler to Washington last week and already have a win over the Giants – a 19-17 victory in Week 4. QB Michael Vick returns under center for Philadelphia after Nick Foles broke his hand in Week 16.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan said he would use the final contests as a chance to evaluate younger players for next season. The thing is, Ryan may not be around to see those talents in 2013. QB Mark Sanchez will get the start over an injured Greg McIlroy and RB Shonn Greene is trying to add a 1,000-yard rushing season to his free-agent resume. Buffalo desperately needs to end the year on a high note after losing three straight. Head coach Chan Gailey says he doesn’t plan on turning to his reserves in Week 17 and will roll out his usual lineup. New York is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Buffalo.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Chicago needs to win and hope Minnesota loses to Green Bay in order to make the postseason cut. The Bears may also be playing for head coach Lovie Smith’s job. Chicago appeared locked into a high postseason seed before losing six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS). Jay Cutler needs to put the team on his back. The Bears have passed for fewer than 150 yards in six of their last 10 games. Detroit could roll over for Chicago in hopes of bettering its draft position. A Week 17 loss could translate in a third-overall selection. And with Calvin Johnson breaking the single-season receiving record last week, the Lions have little motivation.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (N/A)

Atlanta has already locked up the top seed in the NFC and could choose to rest its starters in a meaningless Week 17 game. However, momentum could be very important to the Falcons, who have flopped in the postseason in past years. Tampa Bay looked like a playoff sleeper at times this season but folded down the home stretch, losing five in a row. QB Josh Freeman is a big reason for that slide, throwing eight interceptions in his last two games. Head coach Greg Schiano is aiming to go out on a positive note, so expect the Bucs to give everything they have left.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 54)

Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL in recent weeks, bringing a three-game SU and ATS winning streaking into the season finale. QB Cam Newton has compiled 688 passing yards, 183 yards rushing and seven combined touchdowns in that span. The Saints aren’t going to the postseason for the first time since 2008 but won’t lie down in the finale. Interim head coach Joe Vitt - always one to go for it – says Week 17 is a precursor to the 2013 season. New Orleans has been dismal ATS at home versus Carolina, going just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home tilts with the Panthers.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16, 42)

Denver is playing for the first-round bye Sunday and could even clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs if Houston losses to Indianapolis. The last five times the Broncos earned home field through the postseason, they went to the Super Bowl in four of those seasons. Kansas City just wants to get this season over with. Head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli are gone following Week 17. Kansas City, however is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 17 contests.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (N/A)

This is expected to be Norv Turner’s final game as the Bolts head coach with rumors of his dismissal swirling about for the majority of the season. RBs Ryan Matthews and Ronnie Brown are both injured so expect a lot of air time for Philip Rivers and the passing attack. Oakland won’t have QB Carson Palmer in Week 17 after he injured his chest. The Raiders turn the snaps over to backups Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor and will look to RB Darren McFadden to shoulder the load on offense. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with San Diego.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-16.5, 39.5)

The Niners, who need a win to clinch the NFC West, not only took one on the chin from the Seahawks in Week 16 but also lost one of their biggest weapons in the passing game. WR Mario Manningham is out for the year with a knee injury. San Francisco could go with a ground-heavy attack, pitting their fourth-ranked rushing attack versus Arizona’s 28th-ranked run defense. The Cardinals are poised for a fire sale this offseason and many players may be competing for their jobs this week. Surprisingly, Arizona is the best bet in Week 17, going 8-3 ATS in the season finale since 2001.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 41)

The Seahawks are in the postseason but can clinch the NFC West title with a victory over St. Louis and a loss for the 49ers. Seattle is coming off an impressive beating of San Francisco at home in Week 16, improving to 7-0 SU and ATS inside CenturyLink Field. The Rams haven’t been great on the road and now visit the toughest venue in the NFL. St. Louis is winless in its last seven trips to Seattle and has been outscored 199-76 in those games. The Rams are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall with the Seahawks. St. Louis is 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS versus NFC West rivals this season.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record is on the back burner with the Vikings’ playoff hopes resting on a win at home in Week 17. Minnesota, which has won three in a row SU and ATS, has lost five straight meetings with Green Bay (1-4 ATS). The Packers clinched the NFC North title but can earn the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win in the finale. That bye week could be crucial for a banged-up roster. The Packers could have WR Jordy Nelson back in action this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

The Patriots are cheering for the Colts and Chiefs Sunday, as a win over Miami and a Houston loss would end up giving New England the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a Denver loss would insure the No. 2 seed. Bill Belichick may want to run up the score early in order to give his starters some down time before the postseason. Miami has lost five in a row to New England (2-3 ATS) and has been dismal on the road this year. The Dolphins are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from Miami and now travel to chilly Gillette Stadium, where the temperatures will dip below 20 degrees with a chance of snow Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

These NFC East rivals play for all the marbles Sunday night. A win by either team earns the division crowns and a postseason ticket. Dallas had a three-game winning streak snapped in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday while Washington extended its successful stretch to 6-0 SU and ATS since a bye in Week 10. The Cowboys not only fight a classic rival but also the elements Sunday. The temperature is expected to be in the low 30s in D.C. and Dallas is just 4-11 SU in games played in sub-40 degree weather over the past 20 seasons. The Redskins defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and have covered in five straight games versus “America’s Team”.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 17 is one of the wildest times for NFL bettors. There are teams resting up for the playoffs, some looking ahead to next year and others fighting for their postseason lives. We talk with Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest moves on the board heading into Sunday’s games:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -3, Move: -1

Some online books have moved this line off the key number with money on the road Ravens. Rood is currently dealing Cincinnati -2.5, but says the sharp community came in hard on Baltimore +3 when they opened the Week 17 lines.

“The sharps grabbed the field goal,” Rood told Covers. “Our limits are a little shorter because it’s Week 17, but this was limit plays. Aside from that though, the action has been pretty balanced and there is a little lean toward the under.”

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +4, Move: +7

Public money is coming in strong on the Texans, with the No. 1 seed in the AFC still up for grabs. Rood says the dire straits in Houston outweigh the emotional push the Colts will get when head coach Chuck Pagano returns to the sideline for the first time since leaving the team for leukemia treatments in September.

“Houston is kind of playing for their playoff lives,” says Rood. “They don’t want to find themselves traveling to Denver for a playoff game down the road. Their coach (former Broncos player Gary Kubiak) knows all about Denver in the playoffs.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants - Open: -9.5, Move: -7.5

The announcement that Michael Vick will start in place of injured Eagles QB Nick Foles has pushed this spread two points. Rood says they adjusted the line to New York -8.5 after news of Vick’s return under center and the sharp money took it to just above a touchdown. However, he expects the public to come back on a home team scratching and clawing for a postseason spot.

“According to the players, it’s a plus,” Rood said when asked whether it was good or bad that Vick was playing. “But I have to think the public is going to side with the Giants. They’re not completely written off.”

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -10.5

Despite a flood of bets coming in on the Seahawks, most online books are reluctant to move the spread for this NFC West battle. Seattle has rolled over its last three opponents and has dominated the Rams at home in recent years. But, St. Louis has played divisional foes tough this year, posting a 4-0-1 SU record and a 5-0 ATS mark versus NFC West opponents.

“Seattle is getting a lot of public play at -10.5,” says Rood. “ How can you not bet them the way they’ve been playing the last three games?”

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NFL

Week 17

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Bears at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (3, 44.5)

The Chicago Bears need a win and some help in the final week of the regular season to lock up a playoff spot. The Detroit Lions are only playing for one thing - history for Calvin Johnson. The Bears are hoping to keep Johnson in check when they visit the Lions on Sunday. Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards last week and is aiming to become the first player in history to reach 2,000.

The Bears kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 and are hoping their banged-up roster can pull out one more in the final week. Chicago will also need the Green Bay Packers to beat the Minnesota Vikings (9-6). Detroit, which made the playoffs last season, has lost seven games in a row to crush any hope of a return trip. Johnson has been the only thing keeping spirits up with his record 1,892 yards.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Bears -3, O/U 44.5

ABOUT THE BEARS (9-6): Chicago is hoping running back Matt Forte (ankle) will be ready for the Lions. He sat out practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. Forte was knocked out of Sunday’s win over Arizona and left the locker room in a walking boot, but he told reporters he would play against the Lions. Linebacker Brian Urlacher (hamstring) has missed the last three games and has yet to practice this week. The Bears had dropped five of six prior to the win at Arizona, averaging 11.4 points in the losses. They have won every game in which they have scored at least 18. The defense accounted for a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Cardinals and quarterback Jay Cutler bounced back from an awful start to throw for a touchdown and at least keep the offense moving.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-11): Detroit has simply become the Calvin Johnson show. What was once an explosive offense trying to compensate for a lackluster defense has put up an average of just 16 points in the last three games. Matthew Stafford (4,695) could end up with another 5,000-yard season but has only 17 touchdown passes to go with 16 interceptions. His 443 yards in Saturday’s 31-18 loss to the Atlanta Falcons marked the most in NFL history without a touchdown pass. Stafford hasn’t gotten much help from the running game and is frequently throwing from behind. Johnson caught 11 passes for 225 yards in the loss to Atlanta and is averaging 126.3 yards, making the 108 he needs for 2,000 a strong possibility. He has had at least 118 yards in each of the last eight games.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Bears’ last six vs. NFC North foes.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions’ last five vs. NFC North foes.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Bears also lost starting S Chris Conte (hamstring) in the Arizona game. Anthony Walters replaced him the rest of the game.

2. Johnson was held to a season-low 34 yards in a 13-7 loss at Chicago on Oct. 22.

3. Chicago has taken eight of the last nine in the series but lost in its last trip to Detroit 24-13 on Oct. 10, 2011.

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NFL

Week 17

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Packers at Vikings: What bettors need to know
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (3.5, 46)

The Green Bay Packers' path is pretty well defined. If the visiting Packers can defeat the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, they'll receive a bye and punch their ticket to the divisional playoffs. Should Green Bay suffer just its second loss in 11 outings, it could still clinch the No. 2 seed - provided San Francisco stumbles against Arizona and fellow NFC West rival Seattle follows suit versus St. Louis.

Minnesota's path to the postseason is a little trickier. A fourth straight victory on Sunday will secure the Vikings the No. 6 seed - and perhaps a return trip to Lambeau Field for the first round of the playoffs. A loss to the division foe on Sunday isn't entirely a death knell to the season, although Minnesota would require Chicago, Dallas and the New York Giants to all suffer losses in Week 17.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -3.5, O/U 46

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-4): Green Bay, which has defeated Minnesota in five straight games, secured its postseason berth with a convincing 55-7 rout of Tennessee last week. Pro Bowler Aaron Rodgers led the charge with his second consecutive three-touchdown game on Sunday, and has torched Minnesota during the team's winning streak. Rodgers has thrown for 14 touchdowns and accumulated a 122.2 passer rating. Green Bay's run-by-committee approach has been successful, with veteran Ryan Grant recording 80 yards and a pair of scores last week.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-6): Adrian Peterson's bid to usurp Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record hit a bump in the road in last week in the team's 23-6 victory over Houston. The Pro Bowler battled abdominal soreness to amass "only" 86 yards, thus requiring 208 on Sunday if he wishes to break Dickerson's 1984 mark. Peterson torched the Packers for 210 yards on Dec. 2, but Green Bay walked away with a 23-14 triumph. Christian Ponder was victimized by two critical interceptions in the loss.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Packers’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Under is 6-0 in Vikings’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews didn't play in the first meeting due to a hamstring injury. The Pro Bowler, who has a team-high 12 sacks, is set to compete on Sunday, however.

2. Ponder has been picked off on only one occasion during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

3. Packers WR Jordy Nelson returned to practice this week after injuring his hamstring in the teams' earlier tilt.

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NFL

Week 17

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Redskins
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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

The stakes could not be higher for a pair of division rivals as the Washington Redskins host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night with the NFC East title on the line. Washington has turned its season around since a 3-6 start, winning each of its six games following its bye week. The winning streak is the longest since a seven-game run in 1996 for the Redskins, who are seeking their first division crown since 1999 but also can earn a playoff berth with losses by Chicago and Minnesota.

Dallas only can reach the postseason with a victory. The Cowboys also have flourished in the second half, following a 3-5 start with wins in five of their next six games before suffering a 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans at home last Sunday. This week's situation is very familiar to Dallas, which last season lost to the New York Giants in the final week with the division title on the line and also missed the playoffs in 2008 with a setback to Philadelphia in the season finale.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Redskins -3.5, O/U 48.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and clear skies. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-7): While the NFC East crown is paramount, Dallas also wouldn't mind avenging a 38-31 home loss to Washington on Nov. 22. The Cowboys had won six of the previous seven meetings between the division rivals. Jason Witten set the NFL record for most receptions by a tight end last week with his 103rd catch. Since 2007, Witten has 547 receptions, the most by by a tight end. Linebacker Anthony Spencer has registered 6 1/2 sacks over his last six contests.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (9-6): Robert Griffin III returned from a one-game absence due to a sprained right knee and threw two touchdown passes in last Sunday's 27-20 victory at Philadelphia. The knee kept Griffin grounded, however, as he ran only twice for four yards while wearing a brace. "My mobility was down a little bit just because of the brace," Griffin said. "It didn't necessarily slow me down by any means, and I was able to protect myself out there." Griffin has run for 752 yards this season, the most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four vs. NFC East foes.
* Over is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his last seven games.

2. Griffin has thrown six TD passes without an interception over his last four home contests.

3. Washington RB Alfred Morris leads all rookies with 1,413 rushing yards.

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NFL weather watch: Snow expected in Buffalo

Now that it’s officially winter, factoring weather into your handicapping will become even more important.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 13 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7, 45.5)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and partly cloudy skies. Winds will be strong out of the NW at 19 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11, 34.5)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and overcast skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 13 mph.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-20s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 13 mph.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 39)

Site: Qualcomm Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 40 percent of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the west at 6 mph.