The Bum's 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

SJSU seeks 11th win of season Thursday vs. BGSU

BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (8-4)
vs. SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS (10-2)

Military Bowl - Washington, DC
Kickoff: Thursday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Jose State -7, Total: 43.5

Two surging teams look to cap off strong seasons when No. 24 San Jose State meets Bowling Green in the Military Bowl on Thursday afternoon in the nation's capital.

Both teams enter this game red-hot with Bowling Green going 7-1 (SU and ATS) in the past eight contests and San Jose State winning six in a row SU (5-1 ATS). The Falcons haven't won a bowl since 2004, while the Spartans have played in just one bowl since 1990, a win over New Mexico in 2006. DT Chris Jones (12.5 sacks, 3rd in nation) leads a BGSU defense ranked in the nation's top-10 in both scoring (15.8 PPG, 9th) and yardage (290 YPG, 7th). San Jose State is 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) away from home, outscoring these teams 35 to 16 on average. QB David Fales is 3rd in FBS in passing efficiency with 9.3 YPA, 31 TD and 9 INT.

Can San Jose State win handily on Thursday? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

The Falcons are a below-average offensive team (374 total YPG, 86th in FBS), but they do have an experienced signal-caller in junior Matt Schilz who has 13 TD passes (but also 8 INT) over his past eight games. His favorite target has been freshman WR Chris Gallon, who leads the team in catches (47), yards (647) and TD (six) this year. Gallon caught 10 passes for 213 yards and 2 TDs two games ago against Kent State. Anthon Samuel is a capable running back (88 rush YPG), but he has failed to reach 70 rushing yards in six of his 11 games this season. In the most recent game versus Buffalo, Samuel was held to minus-four yards on nine carries. Bowling Green has many playmakers on defense besides Jones. LBs Gabe Martin (69 tackles, 8.5 TFL), Dwayne Woods (60 tackles, 7.5 TFL) and Paul Swan (60 tackles, 6 TFL) have all been strong in the middle of the field, and have helped create the 14 forced turnovers in the past six games.

Mike MacIntyre did an amazing job with San Jose State this year, especially considering he went 1-12 in his first year in 2010 with the school. But MacIntyre will not be guiding his team to a hopeful 11th victory for the first time since 1939, as he took the head job at Colorado. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer will be the interim coach for this contest, and he will lean on WAC Defensive Player of the Year DL Travis Johnson (12 sacks, 19.5 Tackles for Loss). Fales has the offensive side under control, throwing for 3,798 yards (7th in nation) and a conference-best 31 TD passes this season. His favorite targets have been WRs Noel Grigsby (1,173 rec. yds, 9 TD) and Chandler Jones (618 rec. yds, 10 TD), and senior TE Ryan Otten (706 rec. yds, 4 TD). With the 11th-best passing offense in the nation (328 YPG), the Spartans aren't too adept at running the football (124 YPG, 104th in FBS). But they do have De'Leon Eskridge (83 rush YPG, 3rd in WAC) who is coming off a monster 217-yard, 3-TD effort in the last game, a 52-43 victory over Louisiana Tech.

[StarDust Bum]

Duke stays in state to play Cincinnati on Thursday

CINCINNATI BEARCATS (9-3)
vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (6-6)

Belk Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Thursday, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -7, Total: 60

Duke is making its first postseason appearance since 1995 and seeking its first bowl victory since 1961 when it stays within North Carolina to face Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl on Thursday night.

Despite the favorable draw, the Blue Devils have allowed 42+ points in each of their past four games, all resulting in SU and ATS defeats. Cincinnati has a much richer bowl history, winning four straight non-BCS bowls, all since 2004, including a 31-24 Liberty Bowl win over Vanderbilt last year. The Bearcats have also been playing much better recently, winning four of five (SU and ATS) since November began, and allowing just 14.2 PPG during this stretch. They won't have head coach Butch Jones on the sidelines after he left for Tennessee, so Cincinnati will be led by defensive line coach Steve Stripling on Thursday.

Can Duke end its long bowl drought on Thursday? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Duke senior QB Sean Renfree has put together his best collegiate season with 2,755 passing yards (250 YPG), 18 TD and 8 INT. He's also coming off a career-game in the regular season finale, throwing for 432 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in a narrow 52-45 home loss to Miami. This included a 99-yard TD pass to Jamison Crowder, the same player whose 5-yard TD grab against rival North Carolina in the final minute on Oct. 20 made the team bowl eligible. Crowder leads the team with 85 receiving YPG (3rd in ACC), while senior WR Conner Vernon averages a team-best 6.3 catches per game (4th in ACC) for the Blue Devils' 32nd-ranked passing offense (278 YPG). With this strong air attack, they don't run the football very often, gaining just 119 YPG (107th in FBS) on 3.6 YPC. Freshman RB Jela Duncan leads the team with a modest 516 rushing yards and 4 TD, failing to reach 90 rushing yards in any game this year. Despite the pass-heavy offense, they have one turnover or less in seven of their past eight games. Duke's defense still needs a lot of work, allowing 49.5 PPG and 593 total YPG during its four-game skid. For the season, the Blue Devils rank 106th in the nation in total defense (462 YPG) and 105th in FBS in scoring defense (35.0 PPG).

Cincinnati senior QB Brendon Kay has been solid since replacing Munchie Legaux, throwing for 8.5 YPA, 6 TD and 2 INT. He was 19-of-29 for 245 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in the last game, a 34-17 win over UConn on Dec. 1. Senior TE Travis Kelce (team-high 599 rec. yds) caught both touchdowns that day and also threw a TD pass to Kay on a trick play. But this is far from a gimmick offense, as the Bearcats mostly revolve around senior RB George Winn whose 100 rushing yards per game ranks 2nd in the Big East. Winn has gained at least 70 yards on the ground in 11 of 12 games this season, and has scored 12 touchdowns, including 3 TD over the past two games. In addition to its tremendous 17.2 PPG allowed (12th in nation), Cincinnati also ranks 18th in passing efficiency defense with 14 interceptions and just 11 TD passes allowed. The return game is also strong as its 25.5 yards per kick return ranks 11th-best in the country.

[StarDust Bum]

Surging Baylor takes on UCLA in Holiday Bowl Thursday

BAYLOR BEARS (7-5)
vs. UCLA BRUINS (9-4)

Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT
Line: UCLA -1, Total: 81.5

Two high-powered offenses showcase their stuff on Thursday night when pass-happy Baylor clashes with run-oriented UCLA in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.

Baylor brings a five-game ATS win streak (4-1 SU) into this game, while UCLA has lost two straight, both to Stanford. The Bears lead the nation with 579 total YPG thanks to QB Nick Florence (FBS-best 388 total YPG) and WR Terrance Williams (FBS-leading 147 receiving YPG). The Bruins prefer to pound the football with RB Johnathan Franklin (131 rush YPG, 8th in FBS), who just rumbled for 194 yards and 2 TD versus Stanford’s top-ranked run defense. Baylor had 67 points in last year’s Alamo Bowl, marking its first bowl win since 1992. The Bruins have lost five of their past seven bowls, dropping a 20-14 decision to Illinois in last year's Fight Hunger Bowl.

Can UCLA stop the nation's most prolific offense on Thursday? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Florence has thrown for 4,121 yards, 31 TD and just 13 INT this season, as he has been able to throw at least 2 TD in 10 of 12 games, and play INT-free football in four of the past five contests. He has also rushed for a touchdown in eight of his past nine games, including five in a row. Despite Williams leading the nation with a school-record 1,764 receiving yards, his production has tailed off considerably late in the season. After five straight 135-yard performances, he has less than 100 yards in three of his past four contests, and of his dozen TD grabs on the season, only three have come in the past six games. But the Bears don't put up 44.1 PPG (5th in nation) solely because of their passing game. Lache Seastrunk has been outstanding in the past three games, rushing for 499 yards (166 YPG) on 54 carries (9.2 YPC). This includes a whopping 178 yards on 16 attempts in Baylor's regular season finale, a 41-34 win over Oklahoma State. The defensive problems abound for the Bears who allow the 2nd-most yards (514 YPG), 3rd-most passing yards (323 YPG), and 7th-most points (38.2 PPG) in the nation. Much of this stems from a non-existent pass rush with 1.1 sacks per game (T-8th fewest in FBS) and 3.8 Tackles For Loss per game (3rd-fewest in nation). The one positive for Baylor is that it creates turnovers, piling up 15 takeaways during a six-game, multi-turnover streak.

Before suffering back-to-back losses against Stanford's elite defense, UCLA had averaged 42.8 PPG over a five-game win streak. Franklin has rushed for more than 100 yards in nine of 13 games this year, surpassing 160 yards in four of his past six contests. This has put him atop the school's all-time rushing list with 4,369 career yards. The Bruins are not just a one-dimensional ground game though, as freshman QB Brett Hundley has thrown for 3,411 yards (262 YPG), 26 TD and 11 INT this season. The 26 TD were second most in the history of the school, and in the past seven games, he has thrown for 13 TD and just 4 INT, while rushing for five scores. Many of these touchdown passes have gone to TE Joseph Fauria, who has scored in nine different games this year, totaling 11 touchdowns on his 41 receptions (for 578 yards). Junior WR Shaquelle Evans leads the team with 53 catches and 795 receiving yards, but has gone six straight games without finding the end zone. The one problem offensively is that the Bruins have taken the third-most sacks in the nation, suffering 3.5 sacks per game. But the line is much more impressive on the defensive end, as the D-Line has been responsible for most of the team's 43 sacks this year (T-4th in FBS). Junior LB Anthony Barr leads the nation with 13.5 sacks to accompany his 74 tackles and 20.5 Tackles For Loss. Sophomore LB Eric Kendricks is a tackling machine with 137 stops (5th in FBS).

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Bowl Tips

December 27, 2012

Military Bowl at RFK Stadium from Washington, D.C. (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)
Bowling Green (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. San Jose State (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)

Breakdown: San Jose State will be making just their second bowl game since 1991, after assembling their first 10-win season since 1987. The Spartans defense was not only stalwart, but opportunists. San Jose's stop troops ended up at 28th in the country and they were persistent in forcing 31 turnovers. Third-year coach Mike MacIntyre has changed the culture and his offense with David Fales at the helm, has three receivers averaging over 12 yards a catch. After being shutout 37-0 by Virginia Tech, Bowling Green regrouped to finish the season 7-1 (SU & ATS). The Falcons have an awesome defense (7th nationally) led by MAC defensive Player of the Year Chris Jones. The defensive tackle had 19 tackles for loss, including 12 1/2 sacks. Bowling Green is below average offensively (scored 23.2 PPG vs. foes which allowed 31.6), with QB Matt Schilz more of a game manager than a playmaker.

Head-to-Head History: Not surprisingly, this will be the first head-to-head matchup between Bowling Green and San Jose State. In fact, it will be the first time ever that the Spartans face a MAC team in a lined game. They just don't get as east as Washington DC very often, but they did make the trip to nearby Annapolis in September, beating Navy 12-0. BGSU is 2-4 SU & ATS vs. WAC foes since '05.

Bowl Series History: San Jose State has never played a game this late in the season, and it will be at an all-too unfamiliar place, some 2800 miles away from home. Don't read too much into that however, as Air Force and UCLA both traveled great distances to play in this game and were 2-0 ATS. Additionally, favorites have won all four prior games in this bowl series, going 3-1 ATS. Bowling Green will be representing the MAC, hoping to break a 0-2 ATS slide for their league in this game. Don't forget the total either, as all four prior games went OVER.

Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium from Charlotte, NC (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.)
Cincinnati (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Duke (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Breakdown: With a Belk Bowl victory, Cincinnati will have posted its fifth 10 or more win season in the past six years. The Bearcats performed well against the run, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per attempt. In this contest, it will be how Cincy plays the pass which will count more, as this is Duke's strength. If the Bearcats generate a steady pass rush, the secondary will hold up. The switch to QB Brendon Kay gave Cincinnati a down the field passing game and RB George Winn could well match his team's 5.2 YPC average versus the Blue Devils. Duke is excited about their first bowl game since 1994, but they have their work cut out for them. The Blue Devils have a capable passing offense with QB Sean Renfree and receivers Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder. Can the Duke defense play better after allowing 41.6 PPG in away games?

Head-to-Head History: Cincinnati and Duke have never met in football, so there will be a lot of unfamiliarity involved as Duke plays its first bowl game in 18 seasons. The Blue Devils haven't even faced a Big East team since '07 when they lost to Connecticut 45-14 at home. The Bearcats took on Virginia Tech of the ACC back in September in a neutral field game at Fed Ex Field and won 27-24.

Bowl Series History: The Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC has had a pair of different names in its 10-year history, but one thing is for certain regardless of the name, home field advantage has proven important. In fact, teams from the state of North Carolina are on a 5-1 ATS run in this game, good news for Duke, who plays as a sizeable underdog to Cincinnati. Strangely, underdogs and favorites have alternated ATS victories every year in this bowl game since its inception in 2002. By that pattern, Duke as the underdog would be the winner in 2012. The last two games went OVER the total.

Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium from San Diego, CA (ESPN, 9:45 p.m.)
Baylor (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. UCLA (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Breakdown: This could be the "explosion" bowl with both these football teams able to generate explosive plays at any moment. Baylor leads the nation in total offense with 578.7 YPG and finished strong (4-1 and 5-0 ATS) because RB's Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin took over a larger part of the offense and helped Nick Florence not feel like he had to complete every pass. The Bears were 123rd in defense and will have to force the almost three turnovers a game like they did to close the regular season. The Holiday Bowl is annually a top attraction and UCLA will do its part to carry on the tradition. QB Brett Hundley is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country and RB Johnathan Franklin has excelled as a senior in offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone's spread option. With the Bruins spotty defense, the oddsmakers opening total of 77.5 is inviting.

Head-to-Head History: Baylor and UCLA meet for the first time ever at the Holiday Bowl. The Bears faced Pac 12 foe Washington in last year's Alamo Bowl game and won 67-56 behind 777 yards of offense. They have covered three straight games against Pac 12 opponents. UCLA hasn't faced a Big 12 team in a bowl game since '98 and 10 of their 12 games vs. that conference since went OVER the total.

Bowl Series History: After underdogs had ripped off eight straight ATS victories in the Holiday Bowl from 1998 through 2005, favorites have turned it around, going 5-1 SU & ATS in the last six years. You'll need to watch the closing line for this year's game as oddsmakers project it to be a tight affair. In terms of conferences, the Big 12 and Pac 12 have alternated ATS wins over the last seven years, with UCLA and the Pac 12 due in 2012. The last four Holiday Bowl games went UNDER the total, and the losing team has put up just 20 points in the last three.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, December 27

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BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. SAN JOSE ST (10 - 2) - 12/27/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (9 - 3) vs. DUKE (6 - 6) - 12/27/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BAYLOR (7 - 5) vs. UCLA (9 - 4) - 12/27/2012, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, December 27

3:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games
Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games

6:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DUKE
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Duke's last 8 games

9:45 PM
BAYLOR vs. UCLA
Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UCLA's last 5 games
UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

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Belk Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: +10.5, Move: +7

Money has faded the Bearcats since the announcement that head coach Butch Jones would be leaving for Tennessee. Cincinnati has since hired Tommy Tuberville as his replacement but will hand the keys over to the remaining coaching staff for the Belk Bowl.

“Duke’s going to be really hungry in this one because it’s been so long between bowl games,” says Kessler, referring to the Blue Devils’ 17-year bowl absence since playing in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl. “Duke is going to be jacked up.”

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 217-218: San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 86.323; Bowling Green 83.717
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Over

Game 219-220: Cincinnati vs. Duke (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.110; Duke 79.712
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 221-222: Baylor vs. UCLA (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 106.482; UCLA 105.469
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 1; 83
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+1); Over

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Military Bowl

San Jose State - No. 2 passing efficiency offense (in terms of percentage) in the country (71.29).
Bowling Green – In addition to being the most profitable under team this year (1-10 O/U) the Falcons have only one win over a team with a winning record this season – 8-4 Ohio.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati – Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in bowl games since 2000.
Duke: The Blue Devils haven’t been to a bowl game since the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl.

Holiday Bowl

Baylor - Bear have the best total offense in the nation with 578 yards per game.
UCLA – Bruins ranks 91st against the pass and have allowed at least 295 yards through the air in five of 13 games.

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Bowl Season

All Remaining Games

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Military Bowl
Bowling Green vs. San Jose State, 3:00 ET ESPN
Bowling Green: 15-6 Under off a conference game
San Jose State: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Belk Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Duke, 6:30 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
Cincinnati: 13-3 ATS away off BB games allowing 17 points or less
Duke: 0-6 ATS away off a conference game

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor vs. UCLA, 9:45 ET ESPN
Baylor: 13-5 ATS off BB games gaining 525+ total yards
UCLA: 4-16 ATS away playing with rest

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 27

Military Bowl (Washington DC)
MAC somehow got seven bowl bids; first two lost 41-15/38-17, as they are worst D-I league in country. San Jose State comes cross country for first bowl game in six years with interim coach after MacIntyre bolted for Colorado; rain, wind expected, temps in mid-40's. Spartans won last two bowls, are 6-2 as favorites this year- they beat BYU, La Tech, lost by only 3 at Stanford. Bowling Green is in first bowl since '09, a 43-42 loss to Idaho; they've allowed average of 39.8 ppg in last five bowls, but won six of last seven games overall after 1-3 start (lost at Florida and Va Tech); they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, just 7-15 on FGs. San Jose's PK is 15-15 on FGs. WAC non-conference favorites are 6-7 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 18-16. Favorites covered three of previous four in this bowl, with average total in bowl history, 63.3.

Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
Duke (+10) upset North Carolina October 20 to go 6-2, became eligible to for a bowl, but then lost its last four games, allowing average of 49.5 ppg to limp into its first bowl in 18 years, when they lost 34-20 at the old Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin. Blue Devils' last bowl win was in 1960 in the Cotton Bowl, over Alabama. Cincinnati is in sixth bowl in last seven years (3-2 in last five); they're 9-3, but other than upset win over a subpar Va Tech team, no Cincy wins stand out- they covered four of last five games as a favorite. Bearcats lost coach Jones to Tennessee, will have 4th coach in seven years in '13. Duke is 2-6 vs spread as a dog; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this season. ACC teams are 6-3 in this bowl, 2-1 vs spread when dog; favorites are 5-4 overall in this bowl. Not sure Cincinnati is thrilled to be here, after playing in higher profile bowl games. Duke is definitely happy to be playing anywhere on December 27. Big East faves are 8-8 vs spread, 2-6 on road; ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-11 this season.

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
UCLA coach Mora, former NFL mentor, is in first bowl; his Bruins are 1-3 in bowls last six years, losing to Illinois in San Francisco LY- they'll be more excited to be playing here, fairly close to home, in much better weather. UCLA upset rival USC to get to 9-2, then lost on consecutive weekends to Stanford; they scored 24 or less points in all four losses, up to Baylor to keep them there, but Bears scored 50+ points in two of its five losses this year, thats how bad their defense is; Baylor is playing in third straight bowl after going bowlless for previous 15 years; they beat Washington 67-56 LY, after losing 38-14 to Illinois two years ago. Big X teams are 13-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season; Pac-12 teams are 11-16. Losing side scored 0-7-10 points in last three Holiday Bowls, which used to be famous for wild, high-scoring games; last six years, this game was decided by 11+ points, with Big X/Pac-12 teams alternating wins last seven years.

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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 27

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Military Bowl: What bettors need to know
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San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (7.5, 44)

MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Bowling Green has allowed an average of 15.8 points and ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (289.7), while San Jose State’s offense has been productive, averaging 35.2 points and 327.5 yards passing.

2. The two teams combined for three victories in 2010 and both finished 5-7 in 2011. San Jose State won its last bowl in 2006 (New Mexico) and is 5-3 overall. Bowling Green last won in 2004 (GMAC) and is 4-5.

3. Both offensive lines will get quite a challenge. San Jose State is fifth in the nation with 40 sacks and Bowling Green ninth with 37, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5).

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Jose State -7.5, O/U 44

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies at RFK Stadium. Winds will gust out of the WNW at 20 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 57 percent of Covers Consensus players like San Jose State to cover.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (10-2, 5-1 WAC): The Spartans can reach the 11-victory mark for the first time since 1939 without coach Mike MacIntyre, who accepted the job at Colorado on Dec. 10. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer, the interim coach, takes over a team that has averaged just over 40 points in six straight wins. Quarterback David Fales has led the lethal offense, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 31 scores with only nine interceptions. Noel Grigsby has been the top target, scoring nine times while compiling 1,173 yards on 73 receptions. Chandler Jones has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. De’Leon Eskridge has led the ground attack with 992 yards and 10 touchdowns. Safety Bene Benwikere is the player to watch on defense with seven interceptions and 62 tackles.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Falcons have leaned on their defense to win seven of its last eight games after losing to bowl teams Florida, Toledo and Virginia Tech early on. Jones, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the way while linebacker Gabe Martin and defensive back BooBoo Gates also stand out. Bowling Green has held opponents to an average of 173 yards through the air and a 28 percent conversion rate on third down. The Falcons have averaged 28.5 points the last eight games, keyed by quarterback Matt Schilz and running back Anthon Samuel. Schilz, a junior, has thrown 50 career touchdown passes and 39 interceptions - 14 and 12, respectively, this season. Samuel is 34 yards from becoming the eighth Bowling Green player to rush for 1,000 yards.

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NCAAF

Thursday, December 27

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Belk Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Cincinnati vs. Duke (9.5, 60.5)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES

1. Making its first bowl appearance in 17 years, Duke does not have to make a long trip as the Blue Devils meet Cincinnati in Charlotte, N.C., less than three hours from their campus in Durham. Led by ACC Coach of the Year David Cutcliffe and despite the excitement of heading to its first bowl game since 1995, Duke is on a four-game losing streak that has seen the Blue Devils allow 49.5 points during that span.

2. For the third time since 2006, Cincinnati goes into its postseason game without the coach that led the Bearcats during the season. After winning or sharing its fourth Big East Conference championship in the past five years, Cincinnati lost third-year coach Butch Jones on Dec. 7 to Tennessee, but 36 hours later hired former Texas Tech, Auburn, and Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville. Offensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the Bearcats in the bowl game.

3. With constant conference realignment in the air, Cincinnati has made no secret is would like to be in the ACC, which offered a spot to Louisville earlier this month. And the Bearcats would like to make a statement in the Belk Bowl, taking on Duke from the ACC. Cincinnati is making its 14th bowl appearance and sixth in the last seven years. In September, the Bearcats rallied to beat Virginia Tech in Washington D.C., knocking the Hokies out of the Top 25.

TV: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Cincinnati -9.5. O/U 60.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with clear skies at Bank of America Stadium. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Bearcats to cover.

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Bearcats’ last six December games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight games overall.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East): Senior Brendon Kay took over for the versatile, but erratic Munchie Legaux at quarterback late in the season and led the Bearcats to three wins in four games. Kay is completing almost 62 percent of his passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions. Kay also rushed for 230 yards and a pair of scores. Legaux accounted for 2,051 yards of offense and 17 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, a first team All-Big East performer is Cincinnati's top receiver with 40 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Second team All-Big East tailback George Winn was second in the league with 1,204 yards rushing. Winn had 12 touchdowns and five 100-yard games. The Bearcats average 430.8 yards and 31 points, while allowing only 13 sacks in 12 games. Cincinnati is allowing only 17.2 points, second in the Big East.

ABOUT DUKE (6-6, 3-5 ACC): The Blue Devils raced to a 6-2 start, highlighted by wins over North Carolina and Virginia before the ACC powers got them at the end of the season. Quarterback Sean Renfree has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions and Duke is the only FBS team in the nation to have three receivers catch more than 60 passes. Second team All-ACC performer Conner Vernon leads Duke with 75 receptions for 955 yards and seven touchdowns, while honorable mention all-ACC pick Jamison Crowder caught 70 for 1,025 yards and eight scores. Desmond Scott hauled in 61 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. Duke averages 31.3 points and 396.6 yards total offense while allowing 35 points and 462.1 yards. Ross Martin, the honorable mention all-league kicker for the Blue Devils, is 18-for-20 in field goals, including 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.

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NCAAF

Thursday, December 27

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Holiday Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Baylor vs. UCLA (-3, 81.5)

BRIDGEPORT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES

1. UCLA, ranked 19th, is looking for a 10-win season for the first time since 2005 as first-year coach Jim Mora has engineered an impressive turnaround. Baylor is playing in a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history and is also playing a bowl game outside the state of the Texas for the initial time.

2. The Holiday Bowl has a reputation for offensive fireworks and the Bruins and Bears should only add to the bowl’s lore. Baylor leads the nation in total offense at 578.8 yards per game and ranks fifth in scoring (44.1). UCLA is 20th in total offense (474.5) and 28th in scoring (35.1). Both teams have been very shaky defending the pass.

3. UCLA senior running back Johnathan Franklin is ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game (130.8) and is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,369 career yards. Baylor allows 190.8 rushing yards per game, so there will be opportunities for Franklin to conclude his career in style.

TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: UCLA -3, O/U 81.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and clear skies at Qualcomm Stadium. Winds will blow out of the NW at 5 mph.

CONSENSUS: Just over 50 percent of Covers Consensus players believe Baylor will cover.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Bruins’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five neutral site games.

ABOUT BAYLOR (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): Senior quarterback Nick Florence was up to the arduous task of replacing Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and leads the nation in total offense at 387.7 yards per game. Florence has passed for 4,121 yards and 31 touchdowns while being intercepted 13 times. He has a superb target in senior receiver Terrance Williams, who set a school-record with 1,764 receiving yards. Williams has 12 touchdowns among his 95 receptions. Sophomore running back Lache Seastrunk (874 yards) has played well down the stretch. Sophomore middle linebacker Bryce Hager has a team-leading 115 tackles, which leads the Big 12. Junior weak-side linebacker Eddie Lackey has a team-high four interceptions and returned two of them for touchdowns.

ABOUT UCLA (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12): The Bruins are coming off back-to-back losses to Stanford – the latter in the Pac-12 championship game – after winning five consecutive games. Franklin has rushed for a school-record 1,700 yards and was a runner-up for the Doak Walker Award won by Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has been intercepted 11 times. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a force with 20.5 tackles for loss – including 13.5 sacks – and four forced fumbles. Sophomore inside linebacker Eric Kendricks has a team-best 137 tackles while senior cornerback Sheldon Price and senior safety Andrew Abbott share the team lead with four interceptions.

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Thursday, December 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 6:30 PM ET Duke +9.5 500

Duke - Over 60.5 500

Baylor - 9:45 PM ET UCLA -3 500

UCLA - Under 81.5 500

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ULM makes bowl debut Friday vs. Ohio

OHIO BOBCATS (8-4)
vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS (8-4)

Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA
Kickoff: Friday, 2:00 p.m. EDT
Line: UL-Monroe -7, Total: 61

Louisiana-Monroe makes its first postseason appearance in Friday's Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA when it faces a slumping Ohio team.

Ohio has dropped four of its five games, including three in a row, while ULM enters this game with two straight victories. The Warhawks have played four overtime games this year, including wins versus Arkansas and at Western Kentucky, which just played in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. UL-Monroe QB Kolton Browning has 297 total YPG of offense while throwing for 27 TD and just 7 INT this season. The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in non-home games, but also have an excellent quarterback in Tyler Tettleton (16 pass TD, 3 INT) who completed 19-of-26 passes for 220 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT, while rushing for the game-winning TD with 13 seconds left to win last year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl over Utah State, 24-23.

Can Louisiana-Monroe win its first-ever bowl game on Friday? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Tettleton hasn't been great during his team's three-game slide, throwing for just 6.1 yards per pass attempt with only one of his 101 throws resulting in a touchdown. His team has just 15.7 PPG during the skid, a far cry from the 35.6 PPG over the first nine games this year. However, Tettleton has thrown just three picks all season despite airing out the football 345 times. His favorite receiver by a wide margin is Donte Foster, who has more than double the amount of receiving yards (629) than any teammate (Bakari Bussey 313 yards). Foster also has 7 TD catches with the next highest Bobcats players tallying just three scores. Tettleton's rushing numbers (210 yds, 4 TD) have dropped considerably from last year (666 yds, 10 TD), but a lot of that has to do with the emergence of junior RB Beau Blankenship who ranks 9th in the nation with 125 rushing YPG. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of his 12 games, piling up 312 yards on 50 carries (6.2 YPC) and 3 TD in the past two games alone. He was also decent in last year's Humanitarian Bowl win, gaining 47 yards on 11 carries. Ohio's defense doesn't have a lot of standout statistics, giving up 25.7 PPG (52nd in nation), 395 total YPG (63rd in FBS) and tallying only 1.7 sacks per game (T-79th in nation). The Bobcats have surrendered 80 points and 965 total yards in their past two losses at Ball State and at Kent State.

Browning certainly has had some huge outputs this year (seven 250-yard passing games), and after missing the majority of his team's two losses to start November with a foot injury, he came back with 542 passing yards and 6 total TD in the past two games. Senior WR Brent Leonard (97 catches, 7th in nation) has become the top receiving threat for the Warhawks, piling up 55 receptions for 619 yards (124 per game) and 7 TD over his past five games. Browning also leads the Warhawks in rushing yards with 441. Defensively, ULM loves to go after the football, forcing at least one turnover in every game, and 2+ turnovers in nine of 12 contests, tallying 15 interceptions on the year. That helps combat a defense allowing 272 YPG through the air (107th in nation) and 407 total YPG (73rd in FBS).

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Rutgers seeks 10-win season Friday vs. Va. Tech

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (9-3)
vs. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (6-6)

Russell Athletic Bowl - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 5:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -2, Total: 41

Former Big East rivals meet for the first time in a decade when Rutgers and Virginia Tech square off Friday in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Virginia Tech dominated this series from 1993 to 2003, scoring 30+ points in each of 11 straight wins by a combined score of 511 to 189 (47 to 17 average score). Rutgers has the better record this year though, starting the season 9-1 before dropping the final two games. Virginia Tech needed a two-game win streak to end the year (both ATS losses) with a bowl berth, but still finished 3-9 ATS overall, including 0-6 ATS (1-5 SU) in non-home games.

Can Rutgers saddle Virginia Tech with a losing record for the season? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Rutgers QB Gary Nova has not thrown the football well over the past five games, completing 81-of-147 passes (55%) for 1,063 yards (7.2 YPA), 7 TD and 12 INT. However, Nova has been strong away from home this year, throwing for 397 yards and 5 TD at Arkansas, and tossing 4 TD passes at Temple. Nova relies mostly on three receivers who all rank in the top-20 in yardage in the Big East. Brandon Coleman's 663 yards rank sixth in the conference and he also has 10 TD grabs. Mark Harrison (560 rec. yds, 6 TD) and Tim Wright (438 rec. yds, 2 TD) rank 11th and 19th, respectively, in Big East receiving yards. The rushing workload is given almost entirely to two backs, Jawan Jamison (242 carries) and Savon Huggins (101 carries), as Nova is the only other Rutgers player with more than 10 carries this season. Jamison started the year with five straight games of 110+ rushing yards, but finished with five straight sub-100-yard efforts. He has clearly been affected by an ankle injury, but the long layoff should have him close to 100 percent for this game. The Knights have been sacked just eight times all season (tied for fifth-fewest in FBS). Defensively, Rutgers is incredibly stingy, giving up only 14.3 PPG (5th in nation) and 321 total YPG (14th in FBS). Although the Knights don't pile up the sacks (1.8 per game, 75th in nation), they do rank 19th in the country in Tackles For Loss (7.1 per game). Senior LB Khaseem Greene was named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year with team-best totals in tackles (125), forced fumbles (6) and sacks (5.5).

Logan Thomas is in the midst of a terrible season, ranking 84th in the nation in passing efficiency, a huge drop-off from his 50th ranking in this category in 2011. He's thrown for 2,783 yards on 390 attempts (7.1 YPA) with 17 TD and 14 INT, throwing multiple picks in five different games. Thomas relies mostly on two senior wide receivers, Marcus Davis (891 rec. yds, 8th in ACC) and Corey Fuller (769 rec. yds, 11th in ACC). In last year's 23-20 Sugar Bowl loss to Michigan, Thomas completed 19-of-28 passes for 214 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT, while rushing for 53 yards and 1 TD. He has done a nice job rushing the football this year too with a team-high 528 yards and 9 TD coming in nine different games. Tech's defense has been erratic this year, holding four teams to 17 points or less, but allowing 27+ points in six games. However, the Hokies allow just 345 total YPG (24th in FBS) and put great pressure on the quarterback with an ACC-best 2.7 sacks per game and 7.3 Tackles For Loss per game (14th in FBS).

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Texas Tech clashes with Minnesota Friday in Houston

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (6-6)
vs. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (7-5)

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Houston, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas Tech -13, Total: 55

Two teams look to end their seasons on a high note when Minnesota and Texas Tech square off in Friday's Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston.

Both teams slump into this game as Minnesota is just 2-6 (SU and ATS) in its past eight contests, while Texas Tech has lost four of five (0-5 ATS), allowing 46.2 PPG during this span. The Gophers were just 1-4 ATS in non-home games this year, managing only 17.4 PPG. The Red Raiders rank second in the nation in passing offense (362 YPG), but have allowed 52+ points in each of their past four games outside of Lubbock. Minnesota has lost four straight bowl games, but three defeats were by three points or less. Texas Tech is playing in its fourth straight bowl game taking place in Texas. With head coach Tommy Tuberville leaving for Cincinnati, offensive line coach Chris Thomsen will lead the Red Raiders on Friday.

Which team will stop its losing skid on Friday night? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Minnesota's offense is a mess, and freshman QB Philip Nelson has provided little solace since he took over for Max Shortell. Nelson has thrown more INT (7) than TD (6) this year, and has been just dreadful in the past two games, completing 18-of-46 passes (39%) for 120 yards (2.6 YPA), 0 TD and 5 INT in losses to Nebraska and Michigan State. It hasn't helped the offense that leading receiver A.J. Barker quit the team in November, citing mistreatment by head coach Jerry Kill. Sophomore RB Donnell Kirkwood is the team's most effective offensive player with 849 rushing yards and 5 TD this year, but he has also struggled in these past two contests, gaining just 30 yards on 17 carries. The Gophers defense continues to carry this team, allowing just 353 total YPG (29th in nation) and 23.9 PPG (38th in FBS) this season. They are particularly sharp in their passing defense (179 YPG, 11th in nation), and they will certainly be tested by Texas Tech's high-octane passing attack. The Gophers have forced multiple turnovers in half of their games this season, including three in a row.

Seth Doege is in the midst of another monster season, ranking 9th in the nation in total offense (331 YPG) and 14th in passing efficiency (7.9 YPA, 38 TD, 14 INT). He has thrown at least three touchdown passes seven times this year with outputs of 5, 6, 6, and 7 TD in a triple-overtime win at TCU. Doege has never played in a bowl game before, and he has not been as crisp in his past two games with more INT (five) than TD passes (four). The Red Raiders have a pair of 900-yard receivers in Eric Ward (75 rec., 974 yds, 11 TD) and Darrin Moore (81 rec., 948 yds, 13 TD), who has a whopping 21 catches for 326 yards and 3 TD in the past two games. Sophomore RB Kenny Williams (779 rush yds, 5.7 YPC) is the top rusher in Lubbock, but he has surpassed 15 carries just once all season. Turnovers have been a huge problem for Texas Tech, more particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where the school has forced the third-fewest turnovers in FBS this season with 10. But the Red Raiders have a paltry 1.3 sacks per game (T-105th in nation), which is why they have surrendered 31.8 PPG (92nd in FBS). Yardage-wise they are not too shabby though, allowing just 367 total YPG (2nd in Big 12) and 196 passing YPG (best in conference).

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Pac-12 good, Big 12 bad: Best conferences to bet in bowl games

Teams from the SEC have been a popular pick with those college football bettors getting down early on the bowl season odds.

Just about every program from the nation’s most powerful conference playing in a bowl has seen their spread expand. And why not?

SEC teams are 62-49-2 ATS in bowl games since 1985, boasting a 66-47 SU mark in those contests.

That 54.8 percent cover rate is impressive but it’s not the best conference ATS count during bowl season. That honor goes to the Pac-12, which holds a 44-34 ATS record (40-38 SU) in bowl games over the past 27 years – covering the spread at a 56.4 percent click.

The Big 12, on the other hand, is a bowl season bust. The conference lugs a dismal 41-62-2 ATS (39 percent) record in bowl game since 1985, going 53-52 SU in those contests. In fact there are just five conferences that have finished in the black against the spread in that span.

The ACC (48-46-3 ATS), Big East (38-31-1 ATS), Mountain West (28-23 ATS), Pac-12 (44-34 ATS) and the SEC (62-49-2 ATS) are the only conference that have consistently turned a profit during bowl season over the last 27 years.

The Big 12 (41-62-2 ATS), C-USA (31-37-2 ATS), Independents (9-10 ATS), MAC (17-21-3 ATS), and WAC (19-23-2 ATS) have all cost bettors money at some point during that stretch while the Big Ten (48-48-1 ATS) and Sun Belt (9-9-2 ATS) have broken even.

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Friday, December 28

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OHIO U (8 - 4) vs. LA MONROE (8 - 4) - 12/28/2012, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RUTGERS (9 - 3) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 6) - 12/28/2012, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) - 12/28/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 28

2:00 PM
OHIO vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Ohio is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Ohio is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 6 games

5:30 PM
RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Rutgers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

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Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

Early money has leaned towards the Hokies in this ACC/Big East battle on Dec. 28. Kessler, who opened Virginia Tech -1.5, took some big wagers on the Hokies this past week.

“We got hit on Virginia Tech and moved to -2.5,” he says. “It’s been really hard to bet on Virginia Tech this season, but they are clearly the better of the two teams.”

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 223-224: Ohio vs. UL-Monroe (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 71.274; UL-Monroe 79.423
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 8; 57
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-7); Under

Game 225-226: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 83.855; Virginia Tech 88.030
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2); Over

Game 227-228: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 80.863; Texas Tech 95.660
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 15; 54
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-12 1/2); Under

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Independence Bowl

La. Monroe - Only three teams in the country lost fewer fumbles this season (lost four).
Ohio – Bobcats have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Rutgers - Worst first-down offense of all bowl teams with an average of just 16.7 ypg.
Virgina Tech – Defense allowed an average of 417 yards and 33.5 points against in road games this year compared to 334 yards and 23.9 points against at home.

Meineke Car Car Bowl

Minnesota – Only seven current Gophers played in the team’s last bowl game in 2009.
Texas Tech - Second-best passing offense in the nation with 361 yards per game.

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Friday, December 28, 2012

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio U vs. Louisiana Monroe, 2:00 ET ESPN
Ohio U: 1-7 ATS after the first month of the season
LA Monroe: 9-1 ATS off BB games with 40+ pass attempts

Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech, 5:30 ET ESPN
Rutgers: 17-6 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Virginia Tech: 0-6 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech, 9:00 ET ESPN
Minnesota: 9-1 Under after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Texas Tech: 22-8 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Friday, December 28

Independence Bowl (Shreveport)
UL-Monroe is in its first-ever bowl; they'll be excited and have lot of fan support- this is game Louisiana Tech didn't want to play in, due to their animosity with ULM. Faves won/covered last six Independence Bowls; MAC teams are 0-2 in this bowl the last nine years, losing 17-13/17-10. Ohio is playing in 5th bowl in last eight years, upsetting Utah St 24-23 in LY's Potato Bowl; Bobcats could be diappointed to be here after 7-0 start that included win at Penn State- they lost last three games, allowing 35.3 ppg- they're 1-2 as underdog this year. ULM stumbled when QB Browning was hurt, but he's back now; they're 4-3 vs spread as favorite this year, and also won at Arkansas, lost to Auburn/Baylor by combined total of 8 points. Ohio QB Tettleton is son of former big league catcher; he threw 16 TDs with only three INTs, but Browning (27 TDs, 7 INTs) is key to this game for ULM/ Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 6-3 vs spread this year, 1-1 in bowls; MAC dogs are 18-18, 1-2 in bowls.

Russell Athletic (Orlando)
This is worst Hokie team since an 8-5 team in '03; they lost 40-12/23-20 in BCS bowls last two years. Virginia Tech covered only 7 of its last 26 games (3-9 this year); they had just three offensive starters back from LY and it showed, going 3-5 SU in last eight games, covering two of eight as a favorite. Rutgers is 5-0 in bowls over last five years, but Schiano is now in NFL and Flood is first-time HC; Knights lost last two games to slip out of BCS game to here, but they've got lot of Florida kids, should still be motivated. Problem is, they scored total of 33 points in last three games, but they also covered three of four as underdog, with SU wins at USF/Arkansas/Cincinnati. Tech allowed 27+ points in all six losses this year; Rutgers scored 27+ in only two of its last eight games. ACC teams are 7-2 in this bowl last nine years; underdogs covered five of last seven, with average total in last three just 32.0.

Meineke Car Care (Houston)
Domed stadium has lent to high-scoring games in this bowl; average total in last four Car Care Bowls is 51.8. Favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in this bowl last nine years. 6-6 Minnesota's best WR (walk-on) quit team and trashed coach on his way out door; Gophers are in a bowl for first time in three years- they've lost last four bowls, with three losses by 3 or less points. Minnesota scored 13.5 ppg in last four games. Texas Tech didn't play in bowl LY but is 4-1 in last five bowls, scoring 39 ppg in five games- they played three OT games in last six, winning two of three OT tilts. Tuberville bolted for Cincinnati, so yet another interim coach here. Big X teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl, with Texas A&M winning here LY, in its last game as a Big X member. Tech (-7) beat Gophers 44-41 in bowl game six years ago, in only series meeting. Houston setting favors Tech; so does Minnesota's 2-6 spread record as an underdog. Big Dozen non-conference underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, December 28

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Independence Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Ohio Bobcats vs. UL Monroe Warhawks (-7, 60)

ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES

1. It did not take long for either team to make a major splash on the national scene this season. One week after Ohio opened its season Sept. 1 with a victory at Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe started what would become a historic campaign with a win over then-No. 10 Arkansas. The Warhawks are playing in the first bowl game in program history. The Bobcats gained a bowl bid for the fourth straight time and the fifth time since 2006.

2. Both teams had some bumps in the road following their season-opening victories over major-conference opponents, most notably Ohio. The Bobcats gained a Top 25 ranking after going 7-0, but lost four of their last five, the last three by a combined score of 106-47.

3. Louisiana-Monroe lost only two of its last nine games. It is not a coincidence that those two games came with quarterback Kolton Browning on the sidelines with a foot injury. Since coming back, Browning has returned to form and enters this one on a roll. In his last two games of the regular season, the junior completed 77.8 percent (56-for-72) of his passes and accounted for six touchdowns, including two on the ground.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Louisiana-Monroe opened as low as -6 and has been bet up as high as -7.5. The total opened at 60 and has moved to 61 points.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on UL Monroe while 54 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: There is a 60 percent chance of rain for Independence Stadium and temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Warhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bobcats' last four vs. S-Belt.
* Over is 6-0 in Warhawks' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT OHIO (8-4, 4-4 MAC, 4-8 ATS): The Bobcats' 7-0 start was their best since 1968 and it came on the heels of a victory over Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last season. However, to finish on a strong note again they will need to get over the late-season skid. In the finale against Kent State, Ohio's own mistakes hurt. Frank Solich's squad had two turnovers in the first quarter, both of which were returned for touchdowns. The Bobcats got the usual contributions from junior running back Beau Blankenship, whose 145 rushing yards gave him exactly 1,500 for the season, good enough to rank ninth nationally. Junior quarterback Tyler Tettleton was a steady presence under center. He had 16 touchdowns against only three interceptions and ran for four more scores. Ohio was invited to participate in the Independence Bowl after Louisiana Tech, which finished 9-3, did not immediately act on an invitation from bowl officials.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-MONROE (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt, 8-4 ATS): Browning's primary target has been Brent Leonard, who ranks sixth nationally with 97 catches, 10 of which have gone for touchdowns. Leonard had 13 catches, including two on the game-winning drive in overtime, in the Warhawks' 23-17 victory over Florida International in the last game of the regular season. That was one of four overtime games for Louisiana-Monroe. They won three of them, including the opener against Arkansas, showing the late-game mettle that has made this the best Warhawks team since it joined what would become the FBS in 1994. This game will be played less than two hours away by car from the Warhawks' campus, making this a veritable home game for Todd Berry's team.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, December 28

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Russell Athletic Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5, 41)

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL STORYLINES

1. The two participants in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Rutgers and Virginia Tech, come into the game via different paths. The Scarlet Knights had a shot at the Big East crown and a BCS berth but lost their last game to Louisville, allowing the Cardinals to tie for the league title and take the BCS berth. Meanwhile, the Hokies are just happy to be in a bowl, needing wins in their last two contests to climb to 6-6 on the season and become bowl eligible.

2. These two teams aren't exactly strangers. Before Virginia Tech made the move to the ACC, both schools were in the Big East, where they met 12 times. The Hokies dominated the series 11-1, with the Scarlet Knights' victory coming in the first meeting in 1992.

3. Both teams run very balanced offenses, with Rutgers getting 63.1 percent of its yardage through the air, compared to Virginia Tech's 59.7 percent. The biggest difference is the Scarlet Knights had only six rushing touchdowns on the season compared to the 18 scores on the ground for the Hokies.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Virginia Tech opened as low as -2 and has been moved to -2.5. The total opened 40.5 and fell as low as 39.5 before coming back up to 41.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on Rutgers while the over/under consensus is split 50/50.

WEATHER: The forecast in Orlando is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow ESE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Hokies' last five Bowl games.
* Under is 15-5 in Scarlet Knights' last 20 non-conference games.

ABOUT RUTGERS (9-3, 5-2 Big East, 7-5 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have won five straight bowl games, tied with Mississippi State for the nation's longest current streak. Coach Kyle Flood is looking to become the third Rutgers coach - and only first-year coach - in school history to win 10 or more games in a season. The Knights have been stingy on defense all year long, ranking fourth in the nation in scoring defense (14.3 points) and 14th in total defense (321.3 yards per game). Offensively, look for a lot of sophomore running back Jawan Jamison, who rushed for 1,054 yards and can help set up the Rutgers' passing game. Sophomore quarterback Gary Nova is solid, throwing for 2,566 yards in his first full season as a starter.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (6-6, 4-4 ACC, 3-9 ATS): The Hokies struggled this year after a trip to the Sugar Bowl last season. Quarterback Logan Thomas is a big key for Virginia Tech's success as he ranks as the team's top passer (2,783 yards, 17 touchdowns) and rusher (526, nine). The Virginia Tech defense has been solid against the pass, allowing 204.9 yards per contest. Linebacker Jack Tyler has been a force this year, leading the team in total tackles (112) and tackles for loss (11) while recording 2.5 sacks and 13 quarterback hurries. Getting off to a fast start is important for the Hokies, but it hasn't been easy this year, with the team leading at halftime in only three of its contests.

[StarDust Bum]

I won't be around in the morning and won't be home till after the Virginia Tech game goes off......so this is what am going with.....GOOD LUCK !

Friday, December 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 2:00 PM ET UL Monroe -7 500
UL Monroe - Over 60 500

Rutgers - 5:30 PM ET Rutgers +2.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 41 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Texas Tech -13 500
Texas Tech - Under 55.5 500