The Bum's 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

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Wisconsin battles Stanford in Rose Bowl

WISCONSIN BADGERS (8-5)
vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (11-2)

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -6.5, Total: 47

The Rose Bowl kicks off Tuesday when Big Ten champion Wisconsin faces Pac-12 title winner Stanford.

Wisconsin makes its third straight Rose Bowl appearance, but not with head coach Bret Bielema who surprisingly took the Arkansas job, leaving AD and former coach Barry Alvarez to guide the team. The Badgers are the first five-loss team to play in this bowl, but three of their defeats came in overtime, and they just crushed Nebraska 70-31 in the Big Ten title game. Stanford has been rolling since a controversial loss at Notre Dame, tallying seven straight wins (5-2 ATS). This matchup features two excellent runners in Badgers RB Montee Ball (133 rush YPG) and Cardinal RB Stepfan Taylor (111 rush YPG).

Who will win the Granddaddy of Them All? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Wisconsin has lost back-to-back heart breakers in Pasadena, falling 21-19 to TCU in 2011 and 45-38 to Oregon in 2012. However, Alvarez has won all three Rose Bowls he's coached in, and has an impressive 8-3 bowl record. As this could be the final coaching game for Alvarez, it will definitely mark the final collegiate game for Montee Ball, who is the all-time FBS rushing touchdown leader with 76, and his 82 total touchdowns are also an NCAA record. But he wouldn't have these gaudy numbers if he tried to run against a defense like Stanford has (87.7 rushing YPG, 3rd in nation). Wisconsin has yet to determine whether first-string QB Joel Stave will be recovered enough from his broken collarbone sustained on Oct. 27, or if senior Curt Phillips will start under center.

Stanford is playing in its third straight BCS bowl, crushing Virginia Tech 40-12 in the 2011 Orange Bowl and covering the spread in a wild 41-38 overtime loss to Oklahoma State in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl. The Cardinal enter this game red-hot, taking down four straight ranked opponents -- including No. 1 Oregon on the road -- as part of their seven wins in a row. No offensive player is more valuable than Stepfan Taylor who rushed for 1,442 yards this season. It won't be easy adding onto that pile of yards though, as Wisconsin ranks 22nd in the nation in run defense (124.5 YPG). His punishing style of running, and durable frame has allowed Stanford to tally a 32:57 time of possession this year. QB Kevin Hogan has been strong since taking over the starting role, throwing 8 TD and 3 INT while leading his team to 30.8 PPG and 394 total YPG.

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NIU looks for big upset over FSU in Tuesday's Orange Bowl

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (12-1)
vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (11-2)

Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -13, Total: 58

Heavy underdog No. 15 Northern Illinois carries a long winning streak down to Miami to take on No. 12 Florida State in Tuesday's Orange Bowl.

Northern Illinois enters this game with a 12-game win streak (8-4 ATS), whereas Florida State is 11-2 SU for the year, but just 4-9 ATS. The Huskies, who have crushed their past two bowl opponents by a combined score of 78 to 37, will face a 'Noles team with a four-game bowl win streak, but three straight losses in the Orange Bowl (2001, 2004 and 2006). NIU is led by dynamic dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch (43 total TD) whose 364 total YPG rank 3rd in the nation. FSU also has a strong signal caller in EJ Manuel (261 total YPG), but its defense is excellent, allowing 254 total YPG (2nd in FBS) and 15.1 PPG (7th in nation).

Will Florida State be able to win and cover the monster spread? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Northern Illinois is 21-1 in its past 22 games spanning two seasons, so it gives no apologies for becoming the first MAC school to earn a BCS bowl berth. And the Huskies can also take comfort that non-BCS schools are 5-2 all-time in these marquee bowl games. QB Jordan Lynch is a truly incredible player with 2,962 yards and 24 TD through the air and 1,771 yards (NCAA record for QB) and 19 TD on the ground. Lynch has rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 straight games, and is the biggest reason his team scores 38.2 PPG and gains nearly 500 total yards of offense (486 YPG). Senior WR Martel Moore remains Lynch's favorite target, catching 71 passes for 1,054 yards and 12 TD this year. Junior RB Akeem Daniels also makes this offense go, especially in the past two games where he's rushed for 240 yards and five scores. The defense isn't too shabby either, allowing just 19.0 PPG and 139 rushing YPG on 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Florida State still has a lot to prove, as it barely beat 15.5-point underdog Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship by six points, needing an interception in the game's final minute to secure the victory. The 'Noles are certainly capable of putting up points, averaging 39.9 PPG thanks to seven 40-point efforts this year. QB EJ Manuel has been consistently good all season, throwing for 3,101 yards and 22 TD, while adding another 284 yards on the ground. He also has three running backs with more than 550 rushing yards, led by James Wilder Jr.'s 583 yards and 11 touchdowns. Wilder was named MVP of the ACC Championship after rushing for 69 yards and 2 TD on just 10 carries. Florida State's defense has been fierce, but it will no longer be led by defensive coordinator Mike Stoops who took the head coaching job at Kentucky. FSU continues to be anchored by DE Bjoern Werner (13 sacks, 18 TFL).

[StarDust Bum]

College Bowl Trends - Part II

December 30, 2012

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PURDUE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Dallas Bowl)...Mike Gundy 4-3 SU, 3-3 vs. line in bowl games the past six years. Cowboys only 1-4 vs. line away from Stillwater this season after 11-2 spread mark on road the previous two seasons. Cowboys 0-2 as DD road chalk this campaign after 4-0 mark in role previous two years. Purdue 5-2 vs. line last seven away from Ross-Ade (including bowl win and cover last December). Slight to Purdue, based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Gator Bowl)...NU a spectacular 11-1 vs. spread this season and covers in last six entering this bowl. Pat Fitzgerald 0-4 SU but 3-1 vs. line in bowls, as Wildcats hellbent to end bowl SU win drought that extends to 1949 Rose Bowl vs. Cal! MSU 1-6 vs. points last 7 away from Starkville, and failed to cover Music City Bowl LY vs. Wake Forest. Dan Mullen 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls the past two years. Northwestern, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Outback Bowl)...Michigan 0-4 vs. line as dog this season. Spurrier only 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls at SC but Gamecocks are 11-4 vs. line last 15 since late 2011. Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA (Capital One Bowl)...Mark Richt had won and covered four straight bowls prior to the last two seasons when losing as favorite both times. Bo Pelini has also lost and failed to cover last two bowls after winning first two with Huskers. Georgia 8-4 vs. line away frm home since 2011. Nebraska 1-5 vs. points away from Lincoln this season, 1-7 last eight in role. Georgia, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)...Third straight Rose Bowl for Badgers as Barry Alvarez makes one-game return on sidelines. Wiscy covered 6 of last 9 this season after having failed to cover previous six on board dating to late 2011. Bielema had covered three straight bowl games. Badgers were 3-0 as dog this season and are 6-1 in role since 2010. Stanford has covered bowls in each of the last three years, was 5-1 vs. line away from Palo Alto this season, now 18-3 against spread last 21 away from Farm. Stanford, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at FLORIDA STATE (Orange Bowl)...Jimbo is 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls with FSU, and Noles have won last four bowls SU and are 7-0-1 vs. spread in last eight bowl games. But FSU was also 0-6 against number away from Tallahassee this season. NIU 9-3-1 vs. line TY and 25-15-1 vs. points since 2010. Huskies won and covered bowls (vs. Sun Belt and WAC foes) the past two seasons but had dropped previous three in postseason. NIU 6-2 as dog since 2010. NIU, based on FSU recent woes away from home.

Wednesday, Jan. 2
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA (Sugar Bowl)... Charlie Strong 7-1 as dog since 2011 (1-0 this season) and 13-5 vs. line away from Papa John's since 2010 (although only 2-3 in role TY). Gators dropped 4 of last 5 vs. spread after blistering start this season, Muschamp only 12-13 against points since taking over at UF last season. Gators have won and covered four bowls in a row since 2008. Louisville, based on team trends.

Thursday, Jan. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

KANSAS STATE vs. OREGON (Fiesta Bowl)...Bill Snyder no covers in bowls the past two years and Chip Kelly only 1-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since taking over at Oregon in 2009. Snyder 2-0 as dog this season and 12-4 in role since 2010, also 8-1 as road dog that span! Snyder 18-7 vs. spread since 2011. Ducks covered last four on road this season and are 9-1 vs.. spread away from Eugene since 2011. Slight to KSU, based on team trends.

Friday, Jan. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEXAS A&M vs. OKLAHOMA (Cotton Bowl)...Teams renew their Big 12 rivalry that had become pretty exciting in recent years after Ags scored upset at Kyle Field in 2010. OU avenged loss with 41-25 win and cover a year ago. Ags covered 4 of last 5 this season and were 3-2 vs. spread last five away from Kyle Field, also 3-2 as road chalk in 20102 with Sumlin. Stoops has won and covered his last two bowls after l-6 vs. spread previous seven bowls. Sooners 4-2 vs. line away this season, and Stoops 1-2 as rare dog since 2007. Slight to A&M, based on extended indifferent OU/Stoops bowl form.

Saturday, Jan. 5
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITT vs. OLE MISS (BBVA Compass Bowl)...Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze 9-3 vs. line this season with Rebs and 19-5 against spread since a year ago with Ark State & Ole Miss. Rebs have also covered their last four bowls dating to 2002. Pitt 1-6 vs. line last seven bowls, though those were all pre-Paul Chryst. Ole Miss, based on team and Hugh Freeze trends.

Sunday, Jan. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ARKANSAS STATE vs. KENT STATE (GoDaddy.com Bowl)...Gus Malzahn coaches this game before he leaves for Auburn. Ark State won and covered last five; Red Wolves 17-7 vs. spread since a year ago and 10-3 vs. points away since 2011. Darrell Hazel also coaches this one for Kent State before leaving for Purdue. Golden Flashes 10-2-1 vs. number in 2012 and were 6-1-1 against points away from Dix Stadium, also 4-1-1 as dog. Arkanas State, based on team trends.

Monday, Jan. 7
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ALABAMA vs. NOTRE DAME (BCS Championship)...Brian Kelly just 1-4 vs. line in previous bowl games with ND and Cincy (left CMU before '06 Motor City). Irish 2-0 as dog TY and 6-3 in role since 2010 for Kelly, also 5-1 vs. line away from South Bend this season. Bama covered only 1 of last 5 this season but was 4-2 vs. spread away from Tuscaloosa and Nick is 10-3 against points his last 13 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Tide only 6-7 vs. line this season but Saban is 4-1 SU and vs. line in bowls (including covers last three) with Bama. Slight to Bama, based on bowl trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Rose Bowl Preview

December 31, 2012

The Rose Bowl is always one of the most anticipated bowl games of the year and there are some unique storylines setting the stage for an interesting match-up this year. Stanford and Wisconsin have similar styles of play and both teams have gone through different quarterbacks this season while still delivered successful results. Here is a look at Tuesday’s Rose Bowl and the history between these teams.

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal
Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Date: Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Time/TV: 5:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Stanford -6, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 2000, Wisconsin (-14) 17-9

This year’s Rose Bowl won’t have a big impact on the top of the national polls and with neither of these teams were ever in national title contention as this year’s game lacks some of its normal cachet. The Big Ten certainly had a down year in part due to probation for two of the better teams in the conference, which allowed Wisconsin to advance to the Big Ten championship despite being just 4-4 in conference play. Oregon was the national title contender for the Pac-12 but the Ducks could not even win their own division after being upset by this Stanford team.

Most expected Stanford to struggle last season with Jim Harbaugh leaving the program for the NFL but David Shaw guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 season with an overtime loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Most called for a decline again this season with #1 NFL draft pick Andrew Luck among others no longer on the team but the Cardinal have a chance to match last season’s record and Stanford returns to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1999 season. In that game Stanford lost but covered as a heavy underdog against Wisconsin.

That was a Wisconsin Rose Bowl team led by Barry Alvarez and featuring Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. Alvarez retired a few years later but he remained at the university eventually as the athletic director. With the surprising move of Bret Bielema taking the Arkansas job, Alvarez will be back on the sidelines, going for his fourth Rose Bowl victory as a head coach. It took the urging of his players to accept that challenge and as the A.D. it may have been in part a shrewd move to boost ticket sales and interest for Badgers fans as well. There was certainly limited interest for many to make a third straight trip to Pasadena, especially after an underwhelming 7-5 campaign. Many of the assistants for Wisconsin will run the show but most of the staff will be heading elsewhere after this game as former Utah State head Coach Gary Andersen has been hired to take over the program.

Quarterbacks will also be a focal point in this game. Wisconsin opened the season with Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien at the helm but his struggles prompted a move to redshirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave showed some promise but he was injured and senior Curt Phillips led the team in the final weeks. Phillips is expected to start but expect Stave to run the offense in a few series as he has more potential in the passing game. Phillips did his part in the Big Ten championship but he has only completed 36 passes all season.

Junior Josh Nunes opened the season as the starting quarterback for Stanford. He helped the team score a big early-season upset over USC but the Cardinal would lose two of the next three games. Sitting at 6-2 Stanford opted to switch to redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal have not lost since, stunning Oregon to win the North Division and taking out UCLA in back-to-back weeks to win the Pac-12. Hogan has thrown nine touchdowns and just three interceptions but more importantly he adds a mobility dimension that has made Stanford a much more imposing offensive team.

Overall these teams have pretty similar numbers statistically and both teams focus their efforts on the ground. Wisconsin rushes over 45 times per game and Stanford runs nearly 40 times per game. Wisconsin has been the more productive team, gaining 6.0 yards per play but the numbers are skewed with a few big blowout wins weighing heavily. Defensively Wisconsin also has a slight edge in the statistics but the Pac-12 certainly rated as a tougher league and Stanford also had to play #1 Notre Dame.

Close games defined both of these teams as Wisconsin’s five losses came by a combined total of 19 points with three of those losses coming in overtime. Stanford meanwhile had seven wins by seven or fewer points including two overtime wins. In a match-up of teams with similar styles another tight Rose Bowl could be in order. Wisconsin has lost the last two years in the Rose Bowl under Bielema, losing by seven last season against Oregon and by two against TCU two years ago.

Line Movement: Stanford opened as a 6½-point favorite and in early December the line did jump up to -7. In recent days the numbers has fallen down to -6. The total was steady at 47½ for several weeks but has recently slipped to 47.

Last Meeting: On New Year’s Day 2000 Wisconsin beat Stanford 17-9 in the Rose Bowl in a defensive battle. It was Wisconsin’s second straight Rose Bowl, though they did not cover as a heavy favorite.

Series History: These teams have played three times in the last 30 years with a tie in early season non-conference play in 1995 and Wisconsin winning the two more recent meetings including the Rose Bowl after the 1999 season.

Wisconsin Historical Trends: Wisconsin has been a capable underdog, going 29-20-1 ATS since 1999. Barry Alvarez has a strong 8-3 bowl record in his career, though this is a unique situation. Wisconsin is 29-11-1 ATS since 1991 as an underdog of six or more points but they are just 2-5 in the last seven instances.

Stanford Historical Trends: The Cardinal has excelled in the favorite role with a 29-15 ATS mark since 2008 when laying points. Stanford is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 instances as a favorite away from home as the great recent numbers are not solely built on the great home field edge. David Shaw did lose in his only bowl game last season, a wild 41-38 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

[StarDust Bum]

Early New Year's Tips

December 31, 2012


Gamblers have six bowl games to feast upon on New Year’s Day. Let’s get you started with a look at the four early contests.

**Purdue vs. Oklahoma State**

--The Heart of Dallas Bowl will pit the Big Ten versus the Big 12 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The action on ESPNU starts at noon Eastern.

--Oklahoma St. (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) is the most heavily favored school in this year’s postseason. As of late Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cowboys installed as 17-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 70-71 range. The Boilermakers are plus-600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

--OSU head coach Mike Gundy turned down job offers from several schools to stay at his alma mater, but his flirtations clearly point to a rift in Gundy’s relationship with the school’s AD. Whatever the case, you would think the Cowboys are fired up that their head coach decided to stay put. On that note, OSU would seem to have the advantage in motivation but then again, is it excited to face a six-loss team?

--Purdue (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) saw its head coach Danny Hope fired at the end of the regular season. Hope went 22-27 during his four-year tenure. His permanent replacement will be Kent State’s Darrell Hazell, but Patrick Higgins is the Boilermakers’ interim head coach vs. Oklahoma St.

--OSU compiled a 4-2 spread record in six games as a double-digit favorite during the regular season. The Cowboys are seeking their third consecutive win in a bowl game. They won a 41-38 decision over Stanford in overtime of last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

--Purdue won its last three regular-season games to become bowl eligible. Hope’s team covered the spread in two of those contests, including the regular-season finale, a 56-35 home win over Indiana as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Robert Marve threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, Marve has a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

--Oklahoma St. lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, but we should note the Cowboys’ stellar 5-2 spread record down the stretch. They are ranked fourth in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 44.7 points per game despite going through three different starting QBs due to injuries.

--Purdue has hooked up its backers in a pair of double-digit underdog situations this year. The Boilers nearly pulled outright upsets in narrow losses at Notre Dame (17-14) and at Ohio St. (29-22 in overtime).

--The ‘over’ hit at a 7-4 overall clip for OSU, going 4-1 in its last five games.

--The ‘over’ also went 7-4 overall for Purdue during the regular season.

**Northwestern vs. Mississippi State**

--This showdown between the SEC and Big Ten will be contested in Jacksonville at the Gator Bowl. As of late Monday afternoon, most books were listing Northwestern (9-3 SU, 11-1 ATS) as a short favorite. Most Vegas shops had the Wildcats favored by one, while most offshore books had them as two-point favorites. Mississippi St. was favored for most of the month of December by 1.5 to 2.5. However, most spots made Northwestern the favorite on Dec. 28.

--Mississippi St. (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) won its first seven games before losing four of its last five when it faced the meat of its schedule. The losses came at Alabama (38-7), vs. Texas A&M (38-13), at LSU (37-17) and at Ole Miss (41-24).

--Mississippi St. is led by junior QB Tyler Russell, who threw for 2,791 yards with a 22/6 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs go as he goes, evidenced by his 3/5 TD-INT ratio in their four losses.

--Russell’s favorite target is senior WR Chad Bumphis, who has 55 receptions for 904 yards and 12 TDs. LaDarius Perkins is the team’s leading rusher, producing 941 yards on the ground with eight TDs with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average.

--Pat Fitzgerald’s team covered the number in each of its six games as a favorite. Northwestern won outright in its last two games and took the cash in each of its last six. The Wildcats closed the regular season by trouncing Illinois 50-14 as 19-point home favorites. Kain Colter threw three TD passes without an interception and also rushed for 88 yards and one TD. Venric Mark rushed for 127 yards and one score.

--Northwestern utilizes a two-QB system that has proven to work effectively. Trevor Siemian is more of a pure passer and gets more of the snaps. Siemian has 1,192 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Colter gets playing time at WR and is a two-way threat under center with his arm and scrambling ability. Colter has eight TD passes compared to only two interceptions. He has also rushed for 820 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

--Mark rushed for 1,310 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

--Dan Mullen’s team went 0-3 both SU and ATS in three underdog spots.

--The ‘under’ went 6-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ first eight games, but the ‘over’ ended the regular season on a 3-0 run.

--The ‘under’ went 6-5 overall for Northwestern this year.

--During Fitzgerald’s seven-year tenure, Northwestern is winless in four bowl games but has covered the spread in two of those. Two losses came in overtime.

--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

**South Carolina vs. Michigan**

--Another SEC-Big Ten matchup will go down in Tampa at the Outback Bowl.

--Most books opened South Carolina (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite but the number was quickly adjusted to four. Since then, the number has been gradually increasing and got as high as six at one point. As of late Monday afternoon, the Gamecocks were favored by five or 5.5 at most books in Las Vegas. Some offshores were down to 4 ½. Gamblers can take the Wolverines to win outright for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

--South Carolina won eight of its 10 games by double-digit margins, including a 27-17 win at Clemson without starting quarterback Connor Shaw in the regular-season finale. The only losses for Spurrier’s team came during a murderous three-week stretch. The Gamecocks started the brutal span by spanking Georgia 35-7 in a game that was over midway through the first quarter. Next, they lost a 23-21 heartbreaker at LSU. In the only poor performance all year, South Carolina got run out of The Swamp when turnovers got the best of it and created a lopsided final score.

--South Carolina has thrived in its last eight roles as a favorite, compiling a 6-2 spread record. The Gamecocks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as single-digit ‘chalk.’

--Michigan (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost four times during Brady Hoke’s second season at the helm. The Wolverines were drilled 41-14 in their season opener vs. Alabama on a neutral field in Arlington, TX. They also got blasted by a 23-9 count at Nebraska. The other defeats came at Notre Dame (13-6) and at Ohio St. (26-21).

--Michigan has been an underdog four times this year, going 0-4 both SU and ATS.

--South Carolina is going bowling for the seventh time during Steve Spurrier’s spectacular eight-year tenure. After losing three straight bowl games, the Gamecocks dealt out woodshed treatment to Nebraska in last year’s Capital One Bowl. They won 30-13 as 2 ½-point favorites to capture the first 11-win campaign in school history. Spurrier’s bunch will be looking for another 11-win season in this spot, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue.

--Totals were an overall wash (6-6) for Michigan, but it saw the ‘over’ cash at a 3-1 clip in its last four outings.

--The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Gamecocks, going 4-1 in their last five games.

--Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Georgia vs. Nebraska**

--Georgia and Nebraska will collide in Orlando at the Capital One Bowl. UGA nearly advanced to the BCS Championship Game before dropping a 32-28 heartbreaker to Alabama at the Ga. Dome in the SEC title game.

--Most spots opened Georgia (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 57. However, as of late Friday afternoon, the number had dipped down to nine and even 8 or 8.5 at some offshores. The total was all the way up into the 61-62 range. The Cornhuskers are plus-280 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

--Nebraska (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) saw its Rose Bowl hopes dashed in a humiliating 70-31 loss to Wisconsin as a three-point ‘chalk’ in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Badgers raced out to a 49-10 lead less than one minute into the third quarter and coasted to victory. The Cornhuskers gave up an appalling 539 rushing yards, giving up an average of more than 10 yards per tote.

--Bo Pelini’s squad has been an underdog twice, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. Nebraska got spanked at Ohio St. and won a 28-24 decision over Michigan St. in East Lansing.

--Georgia has a balanced offensive attack that averages 37.2 PPG. Junior QB Aaron Murray has thrown for 3,458 yards with a 31/8 TD-INT ratio. Freshman RB Todd Gurley rushed for a team-high 1,260 yards and 16 TDs.

--UGA was been a single-digit favorite only once during the regular season, collecting a 41-20 win at Missouri as a one-point road ‘chalk.’

--Mark Richt’s team has lost back-to-back postseason games. The Dawgs lost 10-6 to Central Florida in the 2010 Liberty Bowl and dropped a 33-30 triple-overtime decision to Michigan St. in last year’s Outback Bowl.

--The ‘over’ is 7-4-1 overall for Nebraska, cashing at a 3-1-1 clip in its last four outings.

--Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) in UGA games, but the ‘under’ has cashed in six of its last seven contests.

--ABC will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Double-digit BCS bowl favorites near-perfect against the spread

If you’re a big fan of the upcoming college football playoff system, you’re pointing to BCS bowl matchups like the Orange and Sugar Bowl as to why the Bowl Championship Series process was ultimately flawed in the first place.

What are supposed to be marquee matchups look like blowouts in the making, with the Northern Illinois Huskies set as 12.5-point underdogs versus the Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl and the Louisville Cardinals tagged as 13-point pups facing the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. Even the national title game has been bet up to a double-figure spread, with the Alabama Crimson Tide sitting -10 versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Jan. 7.

While those seem like monster spreads for BCS-quality games, they aren’t the highest lines ever for a BCS bowl. That pile of chalk goes to the 2011 Fiesta Bowl, in which the Oklahoma Sooners, 16-point favorites, thumped the UConn Huskies 48-20 on New Year’s Day.

In fact, since the inception of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998 and going back as far as 1985, there have only been six double-digit favorites in any of the five BCS bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Rose, BCS Championship). In five of those games, the favorite covered the big spread.

Here’s a look at those five games and their outcomes:

2011 Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 – Oklahoma -16
2010 Sugar Bowl: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 – Florida -12
2009 Rose Bowl: USC 38, Penn State 24 – USC -10
2008 Rose Bowl: USC 49, Illinois 17 – USC -13
2007 Orange Bowl: Louisville 24, Wake Forest 13 – Louisville -10.5
2003 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State 31, Miami 24 (OT) - Miami -12

Note: Five of those six BCS bowls with double-digit spreads played over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, January 1

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PURDUE (6 - 6) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (7 - 5) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORTHWESTERN (9 - 3) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. S CAROLINA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEBRASKA (10 - 3) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WISCONSIN (8 - 5) vs. STANFORD (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N ILLINOIS (11 - 2) vs. FLORIDA ST (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points this season.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, January 1

12:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Northwestern is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Mississippi State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
PURDUE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Purdue's last 10 games
Purdue is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
MICHIGAN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
South Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

1:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA
Nebraska is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Nebraska is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

5:00 PM
WISCONSIN vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 7 games
Wisconsin is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:30 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. FLORIDA STATE
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

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TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 247-248: Purdue vs. Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 79.800; Oklahoma State 111.319
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 31 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 16 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-16 1/2); Under

Game 249-250: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 97.727; Northwestern 92.241
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: South Carolina vs. Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 103.394; Michigan 99.964
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+5); Over

Game 253-254: Nebraska vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 89.974; Georgia 111.264
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 21 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 10; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-10); Under

Game 255-256: Wisconsin vs. Stanford (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 98.858; Stanford 113.796
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 15; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-6 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 98.871; Florida State 99.432
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Florida State by 13; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+13); Over

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Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue – Won three straight games but is the biggest underdog of this bowl season.
Oklahoma State – Over went 5-1 in Cowboys games with a total of 70 or higher this season.

Gator Bowl

Mississippi State – Had the best turnover margin in the SEC.
Northwestern – Tied with Fresno State as the most profitable team in the nation for bettors at 11-1 ATS.

Outback Bowl

South Carolina – Under is 4-0 in South Carolina’s last four bowl games.
Michigan - Threw most INTs among bowl teams this season with 18.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska - No. 2 pass efficiency defense in the nation.
Georgia - Linebacker Jarvis Jones led the nation in forced fumbles (7) and tackles for loss (22.5).

Rose Bowl

Stanford - Led the nation in tackles for loss with 120.0 and sacks with 56.
Wisconsin - Worst red-zone efficiency defense in the nation (allowed scores on 27 of 29 drives).

Orange Bowl

Northern Illinois – Underdogs for just the second time this season. Lost 18-17 to Iowa as a 7.5-pt dog Sept. 1
Florida State – Tied among bowl teams for the worst ATS record at 3-9.

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Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Purdue vs. Oklahoma State, 12:00 ET ESPNU
Purdue: 9-21 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Oklahoma State: 12-3 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Northwestern vs. Mississippi State, 12:00 ET ESPN
Northwestern: 11-1 ATS in all lined games
Mississippi State: 1-9 ATS after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina, 1:00 ET ESPN
Michigan: 5-14 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
South Carolina: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Capital One Bowl
Nebraska vs. Georgia, 1:00 ET ABC
Nebraska: 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia: 23-10 ATS in road games in non-conference games

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio
Wisconsin vs. Stanford, 5:00 ET ESPN
Wisconsin: 12-4 Over off 1 or more straight overs
Stanford: 17-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Discover Orange Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Florida State, 8:30 ET ESPN
Northern Illinois: 19-9 ATS after the first month of the season
Florida State: 2-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

[StarDust Bum]

New Year's Day bowl betting trends and stats

January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats since 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.


The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.


Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.


New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.


New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.


Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Outback bowl: What bettors need to know
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South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Michigan Wolverines (+5.5, 48)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

OUTBACK BOWL STORYLINES

1. Quarterback Denard Robinson, who is from Deerfield Beach, Fla., will return home for No. 19 Michigan, but could be used all over the field in his final college game with the emergence of Devin Gardner. Robinson hasn’t attempted a pass since injuring his right elbow on Oct. 27 but ran for 220 yards while helping to replace injured running back Fitzgerald Toussaint. In the four games since Robinson’s injury, Gardner has thrown for 1,005 yards and accounted for 15 touchdowns.

2. Robinson and Gardner will have to account for defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the Hendricks Award winner who was named a first-team All-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year for No. 11 South Carolina after setting single-season school records with 13 sacks and 21½ tackles for loss.

3. Neither team will have the benefit of playing with the 1,000-yard running back they had back in September. The Gamecocks’ Marcus Lattimore suffered a devastating knee injury on the same day Robinson was hurt while Toussaint was lost for the season with his own significant leg injury on Nov. 17 against Iowa.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: South Carolina opened at -4.5 and was bet up as high as -6 before settling at -5.5. The total has moved from 48 to 47.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on South Carolina while 58 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gamecocks' last four bowl games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last six bowl games.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 8-4 ATS): The Gamecocks, who posted consecutive seasons with double-digit victories for the first time in school history, will be playing in the Outback Bowl for the fourth time and seeking consecutive bowl wins for the first time in school history. Coach Steve Spurrier has yet to name a starter at quarterback position after Dylan Thompson threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns in place of the injured Connor Shaw during the Gamecocks’ 27-17 regular-season finale win at Clemson. The Gamecocks are 17-2 against non-conference opponents over the last four years, with their last such loss coming to Florida State in the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-4, 6-2 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): While neutralizing Clowney will play a key role in determining their success, the Wolverines’ may be up to the task of limiting his effectiveness after their offensive line allowed a Big Ten-low 15 sacks. The Wolverines’ second-ranked pass defense could be tested in this game after starting cornerback J.T. Floyd was one of three players suspended for this game because of a violation of team rules; punter Will Hagerup and backup linebacker Brandin Hawthorne were the others. The loss of Floyd could loom large against receivers Ace Sanders and Bruce Ellington, who have each posted 100 yards receiving in a game since Lattimore went down.


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NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rose Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 47.5)

WHEN: 5:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES

1. The Rose Bowl was shaping up as a fairly nondescript matchup with Pac-12 champion Stanford squaring off against a five-loss Wisconsin squad. Then the Badgers unwittingly added some juice and an intriguing subplot to the "The Granddaddy of Them All" when coach Bret Bielema accepted a job at Arkansas, prompting former Wisconsin coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez to return to the sideline on New Year's Day. Alvarez took Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl three times - and won them all.

2. It will be strength against strength in a no-frills, grind-it-out affair between two of the only three schools to be playing in a BCS bowl game for the third straight season. The Badgers rely on a powerhouse ground game led by touchdown machine Montee Ball, the Doak Walker Award winner as the nation's top running back. Stanford counters with a rugged defense that is ranked third nationally against the run with an average of 87.7 yards allowed per game.

3. While Wisconsin went 8-5, eighth-ranked Stanford carries a seven-game winning streak into the Rose Bowl, highlighted by a dramatic victory at then-No. 1 Oregon to dash the Ducks' national championship hopes. The Cardinal have not tasted defeat since an overtime loss at BCS Championship Game finalist Notre Dame on Oct. 13. They beat four ranked opponents to close the season, including UCLA twice. The Badgers, who are playing in Pasadena for the third straight season, beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl following the 1999 season.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Stanford opened at -6.5 and was bet up briefly to -7 before coming down as low as -6. The total has moved from 47.5 to 47 at some books.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Stanford while 58 are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Badgers' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinal's last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-5, 4-4 Big Ten, 6-7 ATS): Ball could not quite match his brilliant 2011 season, when he finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, but he still piled up 1,730 yards and ran for 21 scores to become the NCAA career leader with 82 touchdowns. He rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns in a 70-31 drubbing of Nebraska in the Big Ten Conference title game as the Badgers rebounded from back-to-back overtime losses to end the regular season. Ball is not a one-man show in the backfield. James White had 109 yards and four touchdowns and Melvin Gordon added 216 yards on only nine carries as Wisconsin amassed 539 rushing yards against Nebraska. Quarterback Curt Phillips went 2-2 after replacing an injured Joel Stave (collarbone), who hopes to be cleared for the game. Wisconsin's defense ranks 12th nationally versus the run (111.3 yards).

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12, 8-5 ATS): The Cardinal also feature a top back in Stepfan Taylor, who ran for 1,442 yards and 12 touchdowns to become the school's all-time leading rusher. Taylor had three straight 100-yard games after Kevin Hogan was inserted as the starting quarterback. Stanford's offense picked up with Hogan as the starter, scoring at least 27 points in four of his five appearances. Hogan completed 72.9 percent of his passes and his mobility added a new dimension to the offense. His top target is star tight end Zach Ertz, who set school records with 66 receptions and 837 yards and had 11 catches in the upset of Oregon. Linebacker Trent Murphy is the leader of a defense that led the nation with 56 sacks and 120 tackles for losses. Ed Reynolds is a big-play safety who intercepted six passes this season and returned three for touchdowns.

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NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Heart Of Dallas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17, 70)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Having survived the coaching carousel with Mike Gundy still at the helm, Oklahoma State will be looking for its third straight bowl win and fifth in the last seven seasons. Purdue was not quite as lucky when it came to the coaching turnover and will be led by interim Patrick Higgins after coach Danny Hope was let go. Former Kent State coach Darrell Hazell will take over the program after the contest.

2. The Cowboys suffered four of their five losses on the road this season but will be playing close enough to home in Dallas that they should be able to get the crowd behind them. Either way, the game will likely turn into a shootout. Oklahoma State was fourth in the nation in scoring (44.7 points) during the regular season while the Boilermakers averaged a shade less than 30 points and blasted Indiana 56-35 in their final game to become bowl eligible.

3. Purdue senior quarterback Robert Marve passed for seven touchdowns and one interception during the three-game winning streak that closed the regular season and will be getting a chance to shred a Cowboys' secondary that allowed 285.7 yards in the regular season. The Boilermakers’ bigger deficiency is against the run, where Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle could do some damage.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: Oklahoma State opened as high as -17.5 and was bet down to -16.5 before going back to -17. The total has moved from 69.5 to as high as 70.5.

CONSENSUS: 72 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on OSU while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Dallas is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 10 mph.

TRENDS:

* Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Boilermakers' last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 6-6 ATS): Hope compiled a 22-27 record over four seasons but the Boilermakers struggled against quality competition this season and won only three games in the Big Ten - against teams with a combined conference record of 4-20. Fortunately those three games came in the last three weeks of the season, allowing Marve and the offense to build a little momentum heading into bowl season. The defense was better than only Indiana in the Big Ten but Marve, who missed three games and was limited to a total of 17 passes in two others, won his job back in the final month and went for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the final win.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Big 12, 6-5 ATS): The Cowboys were rebuilding after waving goodbye to first-round NFL draft picks Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but Gundy and company were able to keep the offense rolling right along. Junior quarterback Clint Chelf wrestled away the starting job over the last month but could not keep up with the deficiencies on defense in losses at Oklahoma 51-48 and Baylor 41-34 to close the season. While the quarterback position has been the subject of some debate, Randle’s place in secure. The junior rushed for four scores in the loss to Oklahoma and finished the regular season with 1,351 yards and 14 touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Gator Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-1, 52)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL STORYLINES

1. It's a matchup of two teams on the rise who are trying to build winning traditions. Mississippi State has qualified for three consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1998-2000, and the Bulldogs have won five straight bowl games dating to the 1999 Peach Bowl. Northwestern has made five straight bowl games but has not won one since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

2. Northwestern is trying to claim its first 10-win season since 1995, when it reached the Rose Bowl under coach Gary Barnett, and give coach Pat Fitzgerald 50 victories, the most in school history. Fitzgerald is tied with Lynn Waldorf (1936-45) with 49 wins.

3. Both teams led their conferences in turnover margin, as Northwestern as plus-13 and Mississippi State was plus-17.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5 before money on Northwestern took the line all the way to Wildcats -1.5. The total has moved from 51.5 to 53.5.

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Northwestern while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs' last six non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 6-6 ATS): The Bulldogs faltered in SEC play after a 7-0 start that saw them climb as high as No. 12 in the rankings. Three of their losses came against highly ranked opponents in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU, but the regular season ended on a sour note with a 41-24 loss to rival Mississippi. The balanced offense is led by running back LaDarius Perkins (940 yards, eight touchdowns), quarterback Tyler Russell (2,791 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions) and receiver Chad Bumphis (55 catches, 904 yards, 12 touchdowns). The defense was strong early in the season but didn't hold up as well against the SEC's top teams, allowing 37 or more points in all four losses.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten, 11-1 ATS): The Wildcats won their last two games of the regular season and three of their last four. Northwestern's spread offense has been one of the most productive in the nation on the ground, averaging 230.9 rushing yards with running back Venric Mark (1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns) and quarterback Kain Colter (820 yards, 12 touchdowns) leading the way. Colter also has passed for 796 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions while splitting time with Trevor Siemian (1,192 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions). Mark needs 147 all-purpose yards to tie the Northwestern single-season record of 2,195 set by Damien Anderson in 2000. The defense is solid across the board but is especially tough against the run (123.8 yards per game).

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NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

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Capital One Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-8.5, 60)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

CAPITAL ONE BOWL STORYLINES

1. Which team can better handle disappointment? Instead of the BCS Championship Game and the Rose Bowl, Georgia and Nebraska are headed to Orlando. The Bulldogs came up five yards short of beating Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and playing for a national title. The Cornhuskers were demolished 70-31 by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, giving up an astounding 539 rushing yards. This is only the second all-time meeting - Nebraska beat Georgia 45-6 in the 1969 Sun Bowl.

2. The balanced Bulldogs scored three touchdowns against the Crimson Tide’s top-ranked defense - a fourth came on a blocked field goal - and face a Cornhuskers' defense allowing an average of 26.2 points. Georgia is on pace to set school records in scoring (37.2) and total offense (458.3), and quarterback Aaron Murray leads the nation in pass efficiency. He is the first player in SEC history to throw for 3,000-plus yards in three straight years.

3. Nebraska features the nation’s eighth-best rushing attack (254.5). Running back Ameer Abdullah (1,089 yards, eight touchdowns), dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez (973 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (535 yards, 7.2 yards per carry) lead a deep backfield. Georgia just gave up 350 rushing yards to Alabama, and the Tide didn’t do anything fancy. Look for the Cornhuskers to run right at the Bulldogs.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Georgia opened at -10 and has since been bet down to -8.5. The total has moved from 57 to 60.5 points.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on UGA while 57 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Cornhuskers last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five bowl games.

ABOUT NO. 21 NEBRASKA (10-3, 7-1 Big Ten, 6-6-1 ATS): Nebraska, one of only four teams in the nation to win nine games each of the last five years, makes its second straight trip to the Capital One Bowl after losing 30-13 to South Carolina last season. Junior guard Spencer Long is a key to the Big Ten’s best ground game - the 6-4, 305-pounder was named a second-team Walter Camp All-American. While Nebraska is vulnerable to the run, the Blackshirts' defense leads the nation in passing yards allowed (148.2). Nebraska’s all-time record against the SEC is 94-47-4.

ABOUT NO. 5 GEORGIA (11-2, 7-1 SEC, 7-6 ATS): The Bulldogs are making their sixth appearance in the Capital One Bowl, most recently beating Michigan State in 2009. Georgia is loaded with NFL talent, starting with outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who could be the first overall pick in April. Jones has 22.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, seven forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and an interception. He is one of several defensive playmakers, including linebacker Alec Ogletree (98 tackles in nine games) and safety Bacarri Rambo (16 career interceptions). Freshman running back Todd Gurley has run for 1,260 yards and 16 touchdowns, one more than the old freshman record set by Herschel Walker. Murray has overcome the loss of two top receivers, with wide receiver Tavarres King (39 catches, 846 yards, eight touchdowns) emerging as the top outside threat.

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NCAAF

Tuesday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Orange Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles (-13, 58.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Northern Illinois gets a chance to prove the pundits wrong when the 16th-ranked Huskies face No. 12 Florida State, which earned its ticket to the Orange Bowl by holding off Georgia Tech 21-15 in the ACC championship game. The BCS-busting Huskies are riding a 12-game winning streak, highlighted by their 44-37 double-overtime victory over Kent State in the MAC title game.

2. Florida State ranks second in the country in total defense while holding opponents to less than 10 points five times this season. They’ll be tested by a Northern Illinois squad that ranks ninth in scoring offense and rushing offense. The teams are meeting for the first time, and it’s also the first bowl meeting between the ACC and MAC.

3. Northern Illinois’ Rod Carey will make his head coaching debut after replacing Dave Doeren, who accepted the top job at North Carolina State after the MAC title game. The 41-year old Carey previously served as the Huskies offensive coordinator. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, defensive ends coach D.J. Eliot and special teams coordinator Eddie Gran are all leaving for other jobs, and it’s unclear whether they’ll be staying with the Seminoles for the Orange Bowl.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State opened as a 14-point favorite and has been bet down to -13. The total opened at 58 and has climbed to 58.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on FSU while 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Miami is calling for partialy cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SSE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Seminoles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies last five bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Seminoles last nine non-conference games.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (11-2, 7-1 ACC, 3-9 ATS): Quarterback EJ Manuel threw for 3,101 yards and running back James Wilder, Jr. scored two touchdowns in the ACC title game, but the Seminoles are defined by their defense. They’ve given up only 22 touchdowns while allowing 15.1 points per game. Florida State, which is 3-5 all-time in the Orange Bowl, ranked third in the country in pass defense (160.8 yards) and fourth in rushing defense (93 yards). The impressive secondary is led by Xavier Rhodes, Lamarcus Joyner and Ronald Darby, who was named the ACC’s top defensive freshman. Bjoern Werner, a 6-4, 255-pound defensive end, was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year after recording 13 sacks.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-0 MAC, 9-2-2 ATS): The Huskies’ only loss came in their season opener when Iowa escaped with an 18-17 victory. Quarterback Jordan Lynch is a dual threat who leads the nation in total yards (4,733) and ranks third in total yards per game (364.08). In his last nine games, he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 17-to-2, and he rushed for at least 100 yards in 12 games this season. Junior Akeem Daniels became a key part of the offense in the last two games, when he had 29 carries for 240 yards and five touchdowns. Alan Baxter collected a team-high 11 sacks for the Huskies’ defense, which held opponents to 19 points per game.

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Where the action is: New Year's Day bowl line moves

New Year’s Day is one of the biggest college football betting events of the year. We chat with oddsmakers at BetDSI.com about the action coming in on the Jan. 1 games:


Gator Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

There is a sharp-versus-public split on this matchup. The public love for Northwestern has created a 2-to-1 bet count and a similar money-wagered differential for the Wildcats. There was sharp money at -2 in favor of Mississippi State, though. This may end up being a game that sheer public volume will eventually move the line.

The line value has bounced back and forth between the 1.5 and 2 values over the past few days with zero sharp money backing Northwestern yet. Public money has also pushed the total value around quite a bit from the opening 50.5 value all the way up to 52. Zero sharp money has come in backing the total over or under for this game.


Capital One Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Sharp and public money both backed Georgia at the -8 opening line value and continued through -9 and 9.5. The current line of -10 is still getting backed further by more public money. Currently, the bet count is a bit over 3-to-1 for the Bulldogs and money wagered is at about 4-to-1 favoring Georgia as well.

Sharp money is standing on both sides of the total with early action at over 58 and being bought back by other sharp money at the under 61, 60.5 and 60 total values.


Outback Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

This has been a lopsided betting affair from the opening line of South Carolina -3. Finally, at the current spread of +6, Michigan is seeing some buy-back love from bettors. For the most part though, the world is on South Carolina.

Sharps pounded this number early and often at -3 through -5 and the public piled on with bet count and deeper wager volumes pushing the line to -6. Currently, the bet count favors the Game Cocks a bit over 3-to-1 and money wagered is creeping towards 5-to-1 also favoring the SEC squad.


Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal

A lot of two way action on this game from the sharp contingency with Stanford getting the nod at -6.5 and Wisconsin getting the nod at +7. The line is currently holding at -6.5 but we may get to +7 dog money depending on the incoming wagers and public volume for either team. This matchup more than likely will be a balanced decision for the books.


Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles

Sharp money backed Northern Illinois early at the +15.5 opening number and kept coming through the +14.5 to +14 values. At the current Florida State -13 line, the public has come in hard buying back the early sharp money position. Currently, the money is very balanced at this juncture but the bet count is leaning in favor of Florida State due to the public betting affection they are receiving.

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Top 5 NCAAF Trends



PURD
OKLST

OKLST are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.



PITT
MISS

Under is 7-0 in PITT last 7 games on fieldturf.



PURD
OKLST

Under is 5-0-1 in OKLST last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.



MISST
NWEST

NWEST are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.



MISST
NWEST

Under is 6-0 in MISST last 6 non-conference games

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Wisconsin's Alvarez back in familiar Rose Bowl territory

LOS ANGELES -- Of all the coaches that have roamed the plush Pasadena sidelines in the Rose Bowl's 99-year history, Barry Alvarez may have made history this week. Wisconsin's athletic director and interim coach for Tuesday's matchup against Stanford may be the first to hire a new volleyball coach the week of the game.

As you may have heard, he conducted another coaching search earlier this month, one that resulted in Utah State's Gary Andersen becoming the Badgers' new football coach. Andersen has been here this week attending practices, but Alvarez -- Wisconsin's former 16-year head coach and three-time Rose Bowl champion -- has been running them.

"You've got to use all 24 hours," the 2010 College Football Hall of Fame inductee said of his dual roles. "I like to keep busy."

As Wisconsin (8-5) prepares to take on the eighth-ranked Cardinal (11-2) on Tuesday, Alvarez is fully immersed in his temporary head-coaching duties. While Bret Bielema's holdover staff (all of whom have stayed for the bowl) does most of the hands-on work, Alvarez is overseeing meetings and practices. He decides the team's daily schedule (they will see the movie Jack Reacher on Monday night). He will don a headset on the sideline Tuesday, and, as he's been doing throughout pre-bowl practices, he will give the team one last locker-room speech.

All of which comes naturally to a man who led the Badgers to victories here in 1994 (over UCLA), '99 (UCLA) and 2000 (Stanford), and, if he can pull the upset Tuesday, will tie Ohio State legend Woody Hayes for the most Rose Bowl wins by a Big Ten coach.

"This has been easy," he said. "Just give me a whistle. That's all I need is a whistle and a bunch of guys to coach, and I feel very comfortable with that."

Alvarez is quick to point out that, "I didn't choose myself [to coach the bowl game]. The players chose me." Bielema initially suggested the idea when he informed his boss Dec. 4 he was taking the Arkansas job, but Alvarez, in New York at the time for National Football Foundation functions, "didn't feel it was proper to name myself the coach." But when Badgers linebacker and co-captain Mike Taylor called on behalf of the players and asked him to coach them, Alvarez didn't take even a moment to think it over.

"I was flattered and I was honored," he said. "But come on, coach one game, the Rose Bowl? That's the most fun game I've ever coached. There's nothing like it. It's like giving me an early Christmas present."

MANDEL: Breaking down the Rose Bowl matchup

Like most Big Ten coaches, Alvarez holds a special reverence for the Grandaddy, having coached in the game twice as an assistant at Iowa in the 1980s and three times with the Badgers. As athletic director, he accompanied Bielema's teams to Pasadena the past two seasons. Miffed in general by Bielema's defection, you can tell it particularly dumbfounds him that the coach of a Rose Bowl-bound team would bolt for another job.

"No one has ever won the right to go to the Rose Bowl and not coached in it," said Alvarez. "So it never crossed my mind that it would happen." (Technically, that's not true. Michigan's Bo Schembechler suffered a heart attack the day before the 1970 game and spent it in the hospital.)

Alvarez spent the first couple of weeks of December crisscrossing the country to interview coaching candidates (for both football and volleyball) in between practice days on campus. Almost immediately, he felt "invigorated" being back on the practice field, and at one point, still hoping to retain much of Bielema's staff but unable to promise them jobs before hiring a new coach, he seriously contemplated staying on for another year.

"Emotionally, I was really struggling with that," he said. "I went home and told my wife, I said, 'Cindy, I think I should stay on for another year. Besides that, we'll be a good team next year.' And she said, 'Well, you'll be in the same boat a year from now. And you can't do it for one year. You'd have to do it for three.' And I didn't think I could do that. I couldn't do it at the pace that I want to do it.

"So that lasted about 12 hours."

In the meantime, Alvarez's return to the sideline has proven a healing and unifying moment for a program that's gone through unprecedented upheaval over the past 12 months.

Following last January's loss here to Oregon, six of Bielema's nine assistants left for other jobs. One of the replacements, offensive line coach Mike Markuson, was fired after one game, replaced by 27-year-old graduate assistant Bart Miller. It's been reported that Bielema and first-year offensive coordinator Matt Canada clashed over the direction of the offense, which unexpectedly struggled early in the year. The Badgers, 32-8 the previous three seasons, finished the regular season just 7-5, including 4-4 in the Big Ten, but returned to the Big Ten championship game Dec. 1 due to Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility, where their previously underperforming offense unexpectedly steamrolled 10-2 Nebraska, 70-31, to earn a third straight trip to Pasadena.

And then, three days later, seven-year coach Bielema stunned Alvarez and the entire college football world by leaving for Arkansas.

At most schools, the athletic director would have installed one of the coordinators -- either Canada (who's heading to NC State) or Chris Ash (who will soon join Bielema in Fayetteville) -- to serve as interim coach for the bowl game. But at most schools the athletic director isn't a beloved former coach still closely connected to the sport. Most of Wisconsin players -- some of whom jokingly refer to him as "The Godfather" -- have known Alvarez longer than most of the staff.

"Having an opportunity to play with a Rose Bowl Hall of Fame coach in the Rose Bowl is something we're all excited about," said Badgers quarterback Curt Phillips. "He's brought a lot of confidence and a sense of swagger to the team that I think guys have responded to well and really rallied around."

Several players this week used that word "swagger" to describe Alvarez's demeanor. He speaks and acts like a man who knows full well that he knows what he's doing. He kept binders of notes from his previous Rose Bowl trips and is following much the same blueprint, much of which centers around ensuring the players have fun here. Practices are shorter (by 30 to 45 minutes) and crisper than they were under Bielema, and on Friday, when heavy rain hit L.A., Alvarez shelved practice altogether. However, the Badgers also held a live scrimmage with hitting their second day here, uncommon for bowl teams.

Mostly, he believes the bowl trip should be a reward, not a chore, and he's got a 3-0 record (and 8-3 overall in bowls) to show it works.

"One thing that is different that we enjoy is just the way Coach Alvarez talks to us," said star running back Montee Ball. "his swagger that he brings to practices, before his speeches and during his speeches and all that stuff is something we really enjoy. We all are most definitely looking forward to his pregame speech. We hear he does a great job with that."

We can probably guess a few elements of that speech. First and foremost, Alvarez will likely stress the importance of winning this Rose Bowl after falling short the past two years. He'll emphasize to the players their chance to prove to the nation they're better than their 8-5 record indicates. He'll surely tell them that few give them a chance to beat the higher-ranked Cardinal (though football sabermetrics types would strongly disagree).

But don't be surprised if he also includes a message about appreciating one more opportunity to play in an event he holds so dear. Alvarez for one is cherishing his unexpected encore.

"There's nothing like taking the field at the Rose Bowl," he said. "It's the most beautiful venue in all of sport, I think. I'll be just as thrilled as the first time I took it when I take the field this time."

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Consensus Picks


January 1, 2013 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

12:00 PM Purdue +17 938 31.54% Oklahoma State -17 2036 68.46% View View

1:00 PM Nebraska +8 1029 33.25% Georgia -8 2066 66.75% View View

12:00 PM Mississippi State -1 1125 36.17% Northwestern +1 1985 63.83% View View

8:30 PM Northern Illinois +14.5 1297 42.95% Florida State -14.5 1723 57.05% View View

5:00 PM Wisconsin +5 1428 46.79% Stanford -5 1624 53.21% View View

1:00 PM South Carolina -5 1833 59.44% Michigan +5 1251 40.56% View View

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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Nebraska 62 Georgia 1111 54.27% 936 45.73% View View

1:00 PM South Carolina 46.5 Michigan 1117 55.13% 909 44.87% View View

5:00 PM Wisconsin 47.5 Stanford 1139 56.19% 888 43.81% View View

12:00 PM Purdue 68.5 Oklahoma State 1252 59.96% 836 40.04% View View

12:00 PM Mississippi State 54.5 Northwestern 1240 60.90% 796 39.10% View View

8:30 PM Northern Illinois 59.5 Florida State 1250 63.61% 715 36.39% View View

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Tuesday, January 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Mississippi State - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State -1 500

Northwestern - Under 54.5 500

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -17 500

Oklahoma State - Under 68.5 500

Nebraska - 1:00 PM ET Georgia -8 500

Georgia - Over 62 500

South Carolina - 1:00 PM ET South Carolina -4.5 500

Michigan - Over 47 500


My Bowl Game of the Year Will Be Posted Later....