The Bum's 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 22

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E CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (8 - 4) - 12/22/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/22/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 63-32 ATS (+27.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-36 ATS (+29.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22

12:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina's last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games

3:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 209-210: East Carolina vs. UL-Lafayette (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 77.270; UL-Lafayette 85.709
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 5 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-5 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington vs. Boise State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 100.064; Boise State 95.383
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Boise State by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over

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Saturday, December 22, 2012

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs. Louisiana Lafayette, 12:00 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
East Carolina: 11-3 ATS away playing on artificial turf
LA Lafayette: 10-2 Over off BB conference games

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Boise State, 3:30 ET ESPN
Washington: 16-30 ATS off a conference road loss
Boise State: 6-0 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

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Saturday, December 22

New Orleans Bowl
I tend to be wary of teams going back to same bowl they won LY; UL-Lafayette (+4) upset San Diego State 32-30 in this game LY, their first-ever bowl, in front of partisan crowd of 42,000+; their excitement level can’t be the same for this game. ULL scored 31-52-35 points in last three games; they allowed 21+ in last seven, and are 3-3-1 vs spread as favorites this year. East Carolina beat Tulane 28-23 on this field November 17, so they’ll be in familiar surroundings, only with much bigger crowd. All four of ECU’s losses this year are by 20+ points; they scored 41+ points in last four wins. Pirates are in 5th bowl in last six years after staying home LY; they’ve lost last three bowls, but those were all vs SEC/ACC teams. ECU’s last bowl win was an upset of Boise State in Hawai’i five years ago. ULL played slightly tougher schedule this year. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 5-2 vs spread this year; C-USA road dogs are 7-12. This will basically be a ULL home game.

Las Vegas Bowl
Washington lost three of last four bowls, beating Nebraska 19-7 two years ago, before RGIII/Baylor ran them out of Alamodome LY, 67-56, game that cost DC Holt his job—he was replaced by Justin Wilcox, who was Boise’s DC from 2006-09. Boise State is in Las Vegas Bowl for third year in row (won 26-3/56-24 last two years, both as double digit favorites vs Pac-12 teams), so little bit wary of Broncos here, since they’ve got new QB/OC from LY. Peterson is 4-2 in bowl games (5-1 vs spread); Boise scored 27+ points in 8 of 12 games this year, but won three of four when they scored less- this is a less explosive Bronco team that has a better defense. Washington was on 4-game win streak and had 18-point lead in Apple Cup rivalry game, but blew that game- they allowed 17 or less points in all seven wins. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; Boise is 5-6 as a favorite. MWC non-conference favorites are 6-8 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 7-4.

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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New Orleans Bowl: What bettors need to know
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East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette (-4.5, 65)

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Louisiana-Lafayette won four of its last five games, scoring 31 or more points in each of the wins in claiming second place in the Sun Belt, and makes its second consecutive trip to The Big Easy after winning the bowl last year. The Ragin' Cajuns will put their high-scoring attack to the test against East Carolina in a near inevitable shootout. The Pirates, who won five of their last six before losing the Conference USA tiebreaker to Central Florida, have scored more than 40 points in four of those wins.

2. The Ragin' Cajuns and the Pirates make the most of their scoring opportunities. Louisiana-Lafayette is tied for second in the country in red zone efficiency while the Pirates lead C-USA and are tied for fifth nationally.

3. While both teams have had little trouble scoring the ball, neither has had much success stopping their opponents as they allow close to 30 points per game. The Pirates suffered each of their four defeats by at least 20 points.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 22.

LINE: This line opened as high as UL Lafayette -6 and the total has crept up from 64 to 65.5 at some shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 59 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Rajin’ Cajuns to cover.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Pirates' last five games overall.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Ragin' Cajuns' last five games following a win.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-4, 7-1 C-USA): Shane Carden has racked up 2,838 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns this season. In the Pirates' 65-59 double-overtime victory over Marshall in their season finale, Carden completed 38 of 47 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns while running for another three scores. Justin Hardy, Carden's top target, has caught 83 passes for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns as East Carolina's air attack ranks 35th in the nation. Vintavious Cooper's 1,030 rushing yards and seven scores helps balance the attack. The Pirates are likely underdogs because of the four blowout losses to South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida and Navy. Also, East Carolina failed to record a victory against a bowl-bound opponent.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt): While its the Ragin' Cajuns four wins in their last five games that sent them to New Orleans, its their lone loss in that span - a 27-20 defeat at the hands of then-No. 6 Florida that put them in the public spotlight. Dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway has thrown for 2,565 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 661 yards and another eight scores. Three of his four best rushing performances came in Louisiana-Lafayette's last three games -- all wins. Paired with Alonzo Harris (761 yards, eight touchdowns), the Ragin' Cajuns average 187.3 yards per game on the ground, 40th-best in the nation. Louisiana-Lafayette recorded two victories over bowl teams this season in Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky.


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NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Washington vs. Boise State (-5.5, 45)

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES

1. It is a testament to how well Chris Petersen and his staff have done at Boise State that a 10-2 season feels like a down year. The 15th-ranked Broncos were likely out of BCS consideration when they fell at Michigan State on opening weekend but stayed strong behind a defense that allowed less than 15 points and managed to claim a share of the Mountain West. While Boise State was expected to take a small step back, Washington’s step forward in the Pac-12 never fully materialized this season and a loss in the Apple Cup left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last month.

2. The Huskies have struggled offensively all season and will have to go up against a stout Boise State defense. Washington did not get to 30 points in Pac-12 play until facing the bottom of the league in Utah and Colorado late in the season. The Broncos gave up more than 20 only three times and never let a team hit 30. Boise State has been especially strong against the pass, holding opponents to 163.4 yards - fourth in the nation.

3. Washington is trying to lock down its first eight-win season since 2001 while the Broncos are hoping to avoid their first three-loss campaign since 2007. The schools have met only once previously (a 24-10 victory by the Huskies in Seattle in 2007) but will be playing in back-to-back contests, with the Broncos set to open next season in Seattle on Aug. 31.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at Boise State -6 at most shops with the total shrinking to 45 after opening at 46.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 10 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Broncos to cover.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.


ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac 12): The Huskies went 7-6 in each of the previous two seasons and were a trendy pick to challenge for the Pac-12 North with junior quarterback Keith Price entering his third year in coach Steve Sarkisian’s system. But Price and the entire team developed a tendency to come up short in their biggest games early in the season. Losses at LSU in September and a three-game slide in October saw the Huskies outscored by an average of 28.5 points. They were on their way to a five-game winning streak to close the regular season before squandering an 18-point lead to rival Washington State. Price could spend most of his day in Las Vegas handing off to sophomore running back Bishop Sankey, who totaled 1,234 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season. Sankey will be going up against the soft spot in the Broncos’ defense, a front line that has allowed an average of 141.3 yards on the ground.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-2, 7-1 MWC): The Broncos will be making their 11th straight bowl appearance and third in a row at the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. They beat Utah 26-3 in the 2010 game and took out Arizona State 56-24 in Las Vegas last December. Boise State was replacing four-year starter at quarterback Kellen Moore in 2012 and took a while for the offense to catch up to the defense under new signal-caller Joe Southwick. The junior came on at the end of the season, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the final three games to bring the Broncos back to a tie for first place in the Mountain West. Senior running back D.J. Harper finished the season with back-to-back 100-yard games and should see plenty of carries against a Washington defense that has surrendered 164.3 yards on average.


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[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

East Carolina - 12:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -6 500

UL Lafayette - Under 68 500

Washington - 3:30 PM ET Boise State -5 500

Boise State - Under 44 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Consensus Picks

December 22, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

3:30 PM Washington +4.5 1134 35.39% Boise State -4.5 2070 64.61% View View

12:00 PM East Carolina +6 1279 40.95% UL Lafayette -6 1844 59.05% View View

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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

3:30 PM Washington 44.5 Boise State 1439 61.97% 883 38.03% View View

12:00 PM East Carolina 68 UL Lafayette 1503 63.15% 877 36.85% View View


Games are highlighted when more than 59% of all cash contests players choose outcome.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Monday, December 24

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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (+12, 59.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. The lone Christmas Eve bowl game figures to be gift-wrapped with plenty of offense. Southern Methodist will try to keep pace with Fresno State, which is ranked 14th nationally in total offense at 488.5 yards per game while averaging 40.2 points. The Mustangs average 29.5 points and scored a school-record 72 against Houston in October.

2. SMU coach June Jones is familiar with the islands after coaching Hawaii for nine seasons. The Mustangs, who are making their school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance, won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl 45-10 against Nevada. The Bulldogs are making their 12th bowl appearance in the last 14 seasons, and are coming off their first conference championship since 1999.

3. Both teams enter the contest riding a wave of momentum after finishing the regular season on a high note. Fresno State has won five straight games, including a 48-15 victory over Air Force on Nov. 24. SMU went 2-2 down the stretch, but the Mustangs beat Tulsa 35-27 in their season finale to hand the Golden Hurricane their first conference loss. Fresno State lost to Tulsa 27-26 on Sept. 22.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Fresno State opened at -11.5 and has since climbed to -12. The total opened at 59.5 and has remained steady.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 51 percent chance of rain later in the game with temperatures in the high 60s. Winds are expected to blow ENE at 7 mph.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Fresno State while 66 percent are leaning toward the over.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. MWC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last four Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Mustangs' last seven games overall.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 11-1 ATS): Led by first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs shared the conference championship with Boise State and San Diego State. Junior quarterback Derek Carr was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams led the conference in receptions (89), receiving yards (1,168) and touchdown catches (13), while senior Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. Senior defensive back Philip Thomas leads the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranked 19th in the nation while allowing an average of 335.3 yards. Thomas was named the Mountain West’s top defensive player after recording a career-high 82 tackles and eight interceptions. After recording only nine takeaways last year, Fresno State tied for third nationally with SMU and Boise State with 33 turnovers gained this season.

ABOUT SMU (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Mustangs needed their victory over Tulsa to become bowl eligible after losing 36-14 at Rice on Nov. 17. The offense is led by senior Zach Line, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,207 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a dual threat who had 14 passing touchdowns and seven rushing. Gilbert has a 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has thrown 126 passes without an interception. The defense is led by defensive end Margus Hunt and linebacker Ja'Gared Davis, who forced three turnovers against Tulsa. The Mustangs are vulnerable in the secondary, where they've lost two starters to injuries. Over the past two-plus seasons, SMU is 14-0 when scoring first, but 0-14 when the opponent scores first.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Bowl Preview

December 22, 2012

While Monday Night Football in the NFL is done for the season, there is bowl action this Monday night as the annual Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl features an intriguing match-up to wrap up the football weekend. SMU finished the season just 6-6, needing to beat Conference USA champion Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility in the finale, while Fresno State is riding a five-game winning streak for a successful first season in the Mountain West. Here is a look at this game and the history between these teams.

Match-up: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Venue: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii (FieldTurf)
Date: Monday, December 23, 2012
Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Fresno State -12½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2004, Fresno State (-27), 42-0

This is a fourth straight bowl game in the five years since June Jones took over at SMU, an impressive feat considering SMU was 1-11 in his first season. That ugly season was coming off a 1-11 record in 2007 and the Mustangs had not been to a bowl game since getting hit with major NCAA sanctions, with the last bowl appearance being a 27-20 win over Notre Dame in the 1984 Aloha Bowl. SMU was in this bowl game in 2009, winning 45-10 as a double-digit underdog over Nevada. Jones coached at Hawaii from 1999 to 2007, leading Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl after the 2007 season when he led a 12-0 regular season in his final season with the Warriors. Jones is well received on the islands for his success at the university even though he left with some resentment.

Fresno State also has some experience playing in Hawaii as they meet the Warriors as WAC and now Mountain West foes annually. Fresno State made this trip last season, which could help the players with familiarity with the travel and stadium. The Bulldogs won a share of the Mountain West this season going 9-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play. The only losses for Fresno State came on the road against quality teams, Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise State. The Bulldogs also put together an incredible ATS season going 11-1. Fresno State went 3-3 against bowl teams this season, but most would agree that the Bulldogs lost to the best three teams on the schedule and really lack any high quality wins.

Statistically, Fresno State has far better numbers on both sides of the ball, impressively with 6.3 yards per play on offense against just 4.7 yards per play allowed on defense. SMU is also positive in that differential, but much less impressive on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play on offense and 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense. Fresno State posted nearly 490 yards per game, including over 322 passing yards per game for one of the more productive offenses in the nation. On defense, Fresno State did allow significant rushing yards this season, surrendering 172 yards per game on the ground, but having to play Oregon made a big impact on those statistics.

Junior quarterback Derek Carr had a huge season for the Bulldogs and could certainly be growing as a NFL prospect. His brother, David was the #1 pick in the 2002 draft after playing for the Bulldogs and while he never became the star many expected, he has had a job in the league for a decade, currently the back-up for the New York Giants. Derek’s numbers this season are impressive with 36 touchdown passes against five interceptions, while completing almost 68 percent of his passes for over 3,700 yards. David threw for over 4,800 yards in his senior season but Derek’s numbers best what David did as a junior in just about every possible way.

Fresno State is certainly a pass-first team, averaging over 40 passing attempts per game and the ratio of passes to runs would likely be greater if the Bulldogs had fewer blowout wins. Diminutive senior running back Robbie Rouse needs just 32 yards to eclipse 1,500 yards for the second straight season, while also catching 58 passes and scoring 14 times combined. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams has been the key weapon in the passing game with 89 catches this season for over 1,100 yards. Many of his catches are of the short-yardage variety with only five 100-yard games, but he has the ability to create yardage after the catch. This offense averaged over 40 points per game this season, the 12th best mark in college football.

SMU still looks like the run-and-shoot teams of past years under June Jones, but the offense has not been nearly as prolific. The Mustangs averaged just 366 yards per game this season and passed about 57 percent of the time. Despite over 40 pass attempts per game, SMU only averaged 237 passing yards per game as quarterback Garrett Gilbert (famous for filling in admirably for Colt McCoy at Texas in the 2009 BCS championship game) completed just over 53 percent of his passes. Most of his throws have gone for short yardage and he had just one more touchdown pass than interception. SMU was less reliant on the pass late in the year as Gilbert threw almost 46 passes per game in the first half of the season but just 33 attempts per game in the final six games.

Senior running back Zach Line led the Mustangs with over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while also catching 32 passes. He rushed for at least 81 yards in 10 of 12 games this season and had at least 15 attempts in every game. Darius Johnson and Jeremy Johnson led the receiving corps with very similar numbers but both are on the small end as far as receivers go. The Mustangs do spread the ball around but the offense was very inconsistent this season, scoring an average of 42 points in wins but less than 17 points per game in losses.

While Fresno State did play Oregon and Tulsa in non-conference play, SMU played a brutal non-conference schedule, losing to Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M. Conference USA certainly had a down year, but the Mustangs did have to play the top team from the East division for one of the tougher slates in the conference. SMU went 5-3 in league play, including beating the eventual champion Tulsa. The schedules for these teams rated similarly with the Mountain West producing a handful of respectable teams and the Bulldogs getting a boost for playing Oregon.

Defensively, Fresno State has far better numbers and while there are some holes in the SMU secondary the Mustangs are not as bad as the overall numbers suggest with a 103rd- ranked pass defense. Facing Baylor and Texas A&M put a big hit on those numbers and the pace of play for SMU allowed for more plays to be ran against them. What both defenses did extremely well was create turnovers this season. As SMU and Fresno State both picked up 33 turnovers on the season and both teams had turnover margins ranked in the top 12 of the nation. That could be a key for the outcome of this game.

While June Jones and his return to Hawaii will be a lead storyline, a great first year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno should also be worth mentioning. Well-respected longtime Coach Pat Hill was released after last season’s disappointing 4-9 season and while Hill had a number a very good teams and big upset wins he never won a WAC title. In the first year in the Mountain West, DeRuyter has a conference title for Fresno State, albeit with mainly players Hill brought in. DeRuyter did coach Texas A&M to a bowl victory last season as an interim head coach, beating Northwestern 33-22 last season and while with the Aggies he was the offensive coordinator that helped hand SMU a 46-14 defeat last season as well.

Line Movement: Fresno State opened as a -10½-point favorite, but the line quickly climbed to -12 and later to -12½ where it has been steady much of the week before some recent buy-back to -12 at some outlets. The total opened at 59½ and has bounced down to 59. Fresno State is around -450 on the moneyline with SMU +350.

Last Meeting: In 2004, Fresno State was a huge favorite of -27 hosting a one-win SMU team in the latter part of the season. Fresno State won in a blowout with a 42-0 win, but the yardage was actually relatively close as Fresno State had a 465-356 edge as SMU had four turnovers. That was an SMU team that had won once in the previous 18 games however and a good Fresno State team was focused coming off three consecutive tight losses.

Series History: These teams played six straight seasons from 1999 to 2004 with Fresno State winning all but the first meeting S/U though going just 2-3-1 ATS. Fresno State was favored by more than 14 points in each of those contests.

SMU Historical Trends: Since June Jones took over this program in 2008, SMU is 18-16-1 ATS as an underdog and the Mustangs were 4-3 ATS in that role this season including three S/U wins. This is a fourth bowl game in a row for the Mustangs with SMU winning big twice as an underdog and losing as a favorite two years ago in a ‘home’ bowl game. Since 2009, SMU is 8-4 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points but SMU is also just 4-8 ATS the last two seasons in non-home games.

Fresno State Historical Trends: From late 2005 until the end of last season, Fresno State was mired in an ugly 9-32-2 ATS run in the favorite role. It all changed this season as Fresno State went 9-0 S/U and ATS as a favorite this season including going 7-0 as a double-digit favorite. The only game in which Fresno State failed to cover this season was at Boise State, losing by 10 as a seven-point underdog. Fresno State is 4-7 ATS in the last 11 games as a double-digit favorite away from home and 9-14 ATS in the last 23 games overall as a favorite away from home.

[StarDust Bum]

SMU, Fresno State Square Off Monday In Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/24/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Fresno St. -12½, O/U 60½
Television: ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs: It was a very successful first season in the Mountain West Conference for the Bulldogs (9-3 straight-up, 11-1 against the spread), who captured a share of the league title during their first year under Coach Tim DeRuyter. Fresno State also made a lot of friends on the college betting front with nearly 10 units of profit vs. the lines. The only hiccup at the window was a midseason 20-10 loss at Boise State as a 7-point 'dog, but FSU recovered with five consecutive wins and covers to end the campaign. The Bulldogs offense had a lot to do with the team covering seven times as double-digit chalk, and that unit was directed by quarterback Derek Carr, the younger brother of former Fresno star David Carr. The junior out of Bakersfield completed over 68 percent of his passes for 3,742 yards and an outstanding 36:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The passing game was supported by a ground unit that averaged nearly 166 yards per contest behind Robbie Rouse's 1,468 yards (13th in country).

SMU Mustangs: It will be something of a homecoming for Coach June Jones when he brings Southern Methodist (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) to the islands for Christmas. Jones spent nine seasons at the helm of the Hawaii Warriors, a span that included guiding the team into this bowl contest four times. He also got to know Fresno State very well, with the Bulldogs and Warriors growing into a strong WAC rivalry before the Bulldogs bolted for the MWC. The Mustangs closed their season with a 35-27 upset of Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility and hand the Golden Hurricane their only Conference USA defeat of the campaign. SMU was a 6-point underdog in the contest, and finished 6-1 ATS at home. Former Texas QB Garrett Gilbert directed the Ponies offense with more than 2,700 yards passing, and the unit was augmented by Zach Line's 1,207 yards rushing. The Mustangs are making their fourth consecutive bowl appearance with this game, and second Hawaii Bowl matchup after a 45-10 win and cover over Nevada in 2009, Jones' second year with the program.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, December 24

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SMU (6 - 6) vs. FRESNO ST (9 - 3) - 12/24/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 24

8:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. FRESNO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern Methodist's last 7 games
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Southern Methodist

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 213-214: Fresno State vs. SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 97.175; SMU 78.675
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 18 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 12; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12); Under

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Monday, December 24, 2012

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
SMU vs. Fresno State, 8:00 ET ESPN
SMU: 0-6 ATS away after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Fresno State: 9-0 ATS as a favorite

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Monday, December 24

Hawai’i Bowl
SMU coach Jones is a legend in Paradise, having coached Rainbow Warriors for nine years (’99-’07), some of best years in program history; his SMU team won this game 45-10 as a 12-point dog over Nevada (and Colin Kaepernick) three years ago, so can’t dismiss them here, even though they’re 6-6, with four losses by 22+ points. Jones is 6-3 overall in bowls; Mustangs are 4-3 vs spread as underdogs this year- they run ball lot more than Jones’ usual run-and-shoot team, mainly because his QBs aren’t good enough to throw on every down. Fresno State is 8-0 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-0 when laying double digits; Bulldogs won last five games, scoring 47.2 ppg. Pat Hill lost his last three bowls with Fresno, allowing 40-35-40 points; they’ve lost six of last eight bowls, overall. Average total in Bulldogs’ last five bowls is 63.6. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 12-20 vs spread this year; MWC favorites are 6-8 against the spread.

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Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State - Senior Phillip Thomas led the nation in interceptions with eight and tied for tops in the nation with three returned for TDs.

SMU – The Mustangs tied for the most interception return TDs with six this season. SMU finished tied for sixth with 19 INTs.

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Monday, December 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET Fresno State -12.5 500

Southern Methodist - Under 61.5 500

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Central Michigan, Western Kentucky Meet In Little Caesars Bowl

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 12/26/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: WKU -6, O/U 60
Television: ESPN

NOTE: Central Michigan wide receivers Titus Davis and Courtney Willliams are both out for Wednesday's Little Caesars Bowl game vs. Western Kentucky due to suspensions.

WKU Hilltoppers: A 5-1 start to the season fizzled out at the end for the Hilltoppers (7-5 straight-up, 8-4 against the spread), who dropped four of their final six games. The Little Caesars Bowl still rewarded WKU with an invite to take on Central Michigan at Detroit's Ford Field, and defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will lead the team as interim head coach after Willie Taggart opted to take the South Florida job in early December. Western Kentucky recently announced the hiring of former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino to take over beginning next year. This is the first bowl appearance for the Hilltoppers since a Tangerine Bowl victory in 1963, and they bring a solid ground game into the affair, led by running back Antonio Andrews. The junior rushed for 1,614 yards, ranked eighth in the nation, and scored 11 touchdowns on the ground, adding another three scores receiving. Both teams bring solid "over" trends into the contest, with seven of CMU's last 10 games topping the total while five of WKU's last seven skipped past the number.

CMU Chippewas: Sneaking into the bowl picture with three wins and covers to close the schedule, Central Michigan (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) is making its first postseason appearance since winning the GMAC Bowl in 2009. The Chips were coming off consecutive 3-9 campaigns in Coach Dan Enos' first two years as head coach before the late push to become bowl eligible this season. Senior quarterback Ryan Radcliff threw for more than 2,900 yards and 20 TDs, with his favorite target being Cody Wilson (64 receptions, 739 yards). However, Radcliff will be missing his best downfield threat for this game since Titus Davis (43 catches for 860 yards) is out due to a suspension. The real strength of the CMU attack is RB Zurlon Tipton, who closed the season with six consecutive games rushing for at least 110 yards. The junior ranked 15th in the country with almost 1,400 yards rushing, and he scored 19 touchdowns on the ground.

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W. Kentucky plays first-ever bowl Wednesday vs. CMU

CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (6-6)
vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (7-5)

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Western Kentucky -6, Total: 57

Western Kentucky makes its bowl debut on Wednesday night when it takes on Central Michigan in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit.

The Chippewas will be playing in their fourth Little Caesars Bowl in seven years, losing each of the past two by a field goal. They are riding a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) thanks mostly to RB Zurlon Tipton who has six straight 100-yard games with 13 TD during this streak. The Hilltoppers also have a star running back in Antonio Andrews who has carried the ball 264 times in his past 10 games, racking up 238 and 230 yards in his past two games. He is a big reason why WKU is 6-0 ATS (4-2 SU) in non-home games this season. Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will coach the Hilltoppers in this game after head man Willie Taggart left for South Florida. Due to a violation of team policy, Central Michigan suspended two of its top three wide receivers for this game -- Titus Davis (team-high 860 rec. yds, 8 rec. TD) and Courtney Williams (24 rec, 260 yds).

Can Western Kentucky prevail in its first-ever bowl game? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Central Michigan has won three straight (SU and ATS), but these three opponents -- Eastern Michigan, Miami-Ohio and UMass have a combined record of 7-29 (.194) this year. Despite the win streak, senior QB Ryan Radcliff has connected on just 43-of-76 passes (56.6%) for 573 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. With both Davis and Williams suspended for this game, Radcliff will rely heavily on erratic senior WR Cody Wilson, who has four 100-yard games, but seven sub-55-yard efforts this season. The good news is that Zurlon Tipton has gotten stronger throughout the season with 894 rushing yards (149 YPG) on 6.1 yards per carry in the second half of the 2012 campaign. His 19 rushing touchdowns are one shy of the school record set in 1994. Defensively, CMU is not very good in any facet, as the school ranks 98th in FBS in scoring defense (33.3 PPG), 96th in total defense (443 YPG) and tied for 99th in sacks (1.4 per game). The one saving grace is their increase in takeaways from five over the first six games of the season to 13 in the year's final six contests.

Western Kentucky's offensive philosophy is pretty simple: give the football to Antonio Andrews. The junior needs just 274 yards to break the NCAA all-time record for all-purpose yards in a season set by Barry Sanders in 1988. Andrews has rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 TD, caught 23 passes for 411 yards and 3 TD, and returned kicks and punts for a combined 957 yards and one touchdown. Senior QB Kawaun Jakes ranks 28th in the nation in passing efficiency (7.9 YPA, 21 TD and 11 TD), but he has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his past three games, tossing 5 INTs and just 3 TDs in this stretch. WKU will miss Taggart on the sidelines, but it can take solace in the fact that Guidry won his last bowl game in the interim coach role, leading Miami-Ohio to a win in the 2011 GoDaddy.com Bowl. However, the team will still be missing Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year, DE Quanterus Smith (12.5 sacks in 10 games), due to a knee injury. He was a big reason the Hilltoppers led their conference with 2.6 sacks per game and placed 12th in the nation in Tackles For Loss (7.4 per game). WKU also has a strong pass defense, ranking second in the Sun Belt with 206 passing YPG allowed.

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Home Cookin'

December 18, 2012

REGIONAL or HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

Over the course of the last 20 seasons, 19 bowl games have been played at one of the teams' home field. The host teams are 11-8 straight up and 11-7 against the spread in those games.

In 2012, only one team will be hosting a bowl game, and that is San Diego State, who welcomes BYU to Qualcomm Stadium for the Poinsettia Bowl game. The Aztecs are three-point underdogs in that game, and for the record, home 'dogs are 5-2 ATS in that group.

Preparing for several weeks to play a game at your home field is certainly advantageous. The advantage that isn't always as glaring, and therefore often overlooked, is a regional advantage. There are many examples of teams playing bowl games in their home state, perhaps less than three hours from their campus. The chances for that team to feel as if they are the home team by rallying their fans to the cause are much greater than the opponent, who, along with its fans, has to endure more rigorous travel to get to a bowl game. The examples of the latter are many fold.

From last year alone, Florida beat Ohio State at the Gator Bowl, Texas A&M beat Northwestern at the Texas Bowl, Rutgers turned back Iowa State at the Pinstripe Bowl, Baylor came up big over Washington at San Antonio in the Alamo Bowl, NC State won the Belk Bowl in Charlotte against Louisville, Louisiana-Lafayette was a winner at the Superdome in New Orleans over San Diego State, Houston beat Penn State in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, and Florida State beat Notre Dame in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Losing teams in would be regional advantage games were California (Holiday Bowl), and UCLA (Fight Hunger). If you're keeping score, that was 8-2 against the spread. That is a record worth noting.

You will find games like this on every year's bowl card, as organizers do this to increase attendance figures and enhance the experience for the travelers. The trouble for oddsmakers is that this home field edge is impossible to quantify, and as a result, most bowl games not at a specific home field are treated as neutral games. Therefore, this is an easy spot for bettors to pick up at least a couple points of value on a line.

Here's a look at the games that would qualify as regional advantage games on the 2012-13 bowl board:

Teams listed first have the Regional Edge

Friday, Dec. 21

Beef O' Brady's Bowl at Tropicana Field from St. Petersburg, FL
Central Florida vs. Ball State

Saturday, Dec. 22

New Orleans Bowl at Superdome from New Orleans, LA
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 26

Little Caesar's Bowl at Ford Field from Detroit, MI
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky

Thursday, Dec. 27

Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium from Charlotte, NC
Duke vs. Cincinnati

Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium from San Diego, CA
UCLA vs. Baylor

Friday, Dec. 28

Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium from Shreveport, LA
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio

Friday, Dec. 28

Meineke Car Care Bowl at Reliant Stadium from Houston, Texas
Texas Tech vs. Minnesota

Saturday, Dec. 29

Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G Carter Stadium from Fort Worth, TX
Rice vs. Air Force

Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium from Bronx, NY
Syracuse vs. West Virginia

Alamo Bowl at Alamodome from San Antonio, TX
Texas vs. Oregon State

Monday, Dec. 31

Music City Bowl at LP Field from Nashville, TN
Vanderbilt vs. NC State

Tuesday, Jan. 1

Rose Bowl at Rose Bowl Stadium from Pasadena, CA
Stanford vs. Wisconsin

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Five NCAAF teams bowling for the first time in a long time

Five teams blow the dust off their bowling shoes this month after an extended absence from the postseason. Two of those programs have actually never taken those shoes out of the box.

Here’s a look at the teams bowling for the first time in a long time:

Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS)

The Hilltoppers, who have only been a member of the FBS since 2008, play in their first big-boy bowl game when they take on Central Michigan in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl on Dec. 26. Oddsmakers have tabbed WKU as a 5-point favorite at Ford Field. Western Kentucky was a golden goose for bettors early in the season, going 6-0 ATS, but finished with a 2-4 ATS mark in the final six games.

UL Monroe Warhawks (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)

The Warhawks are another program making its bowl debut this year. UL Monroe is a 7-point favorite versus Ohio in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 28, snapping an 18-year bowl drought after jumping to Div-IA in 1994. The Warhawks don’t have to travel far with the game scheduled in Shreveport, Louisiana – just an hour and a half drive down the 20.

Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS)

The last time the Golden Flashes were featured in a bowl game, The Godfather was cleaning up at the Oscars, Roberta Flack topped the music charts, and former head coach Darrell Hazell was eight years old. Kent State makes its first bowl appearance since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl, in which it lost 21-18 to Tampa, when it faces Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 6. Books have KSU as a 3.5-point underdog following Hazell’s departure to Purdue.

Duke Blue Devils (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Blue Devils may be staples of the college hoops postseason but the football version of the Dukies hasn’t been bowling since the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, when Duke lost to Wisconsin 34-20 as an 8-point underdog. This year’s team just made the bowl cut with six wins and draws Cincinnati for the Dec. 27 Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Books are dealing Duke +7 after the team stumbled into the postseason with four straight losses SU and ATS.

San Jose State Spartans (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)

The Spartans are one of the best bets in college football and are 7-point favorites versus Bowling Green in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27. This is San Jose State’s first bowl game since 2006 when it beat New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, 20-12, as a 3-point underdog. Before that, SJSU hadn’t been bowling since 1990. The Spartans have fared well in bowl season, posting a 5-3 SU mark going back to the 1946 Raisin Bowl.

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Wednesday, December 26

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C MICHIGAN (6 - 6) vs. W KENTUCKY (7 - 5) - 12/26/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, December 26

7:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Central Michigan is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games
Western Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games

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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 215-216: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 76.975; Central Michigan 70.778
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 5; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-5); Over

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky, 7:30 ET ESPN
Central Michigan: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Western Kentucky: 7-0 ATS away off a conference game

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Wednesday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl
Western Kentucky has to be thrilled to be playing in its first-ever bowl, especially after being snubbed LY, but coach Taggart dampened lot of the enthusiasm by bolting for South Florida job. WKU lost four of last six games, allowed 31.5 ppg in last four and failed to cover last three tries as a favorite, but they held Alabama to 328 TY, 2nd-least Crimson Tide gained this year in 35-0 (+38) loss in September. Five of last seven WKU games were decided by 5 or less points. Central Michigan won four of last five games to get here, and maybe save coach Enos’ job; he is 12-24 in three years, but was 8-23 before late surge, at a school used to recent success. Chippewas are 2-4 in bowl games, with last three all decided by exactly 3 points- they’re 1-5 vs spread as an underdog this year, giving up 41+ points in five of their six losses, all while playing #118 (out of 124) ranked schedule. MAC underdogs are 17-15 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 5-2.

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Little Caesar's Bowl

Western Kentucky - Antonio Andrews was nation's leading all purpose runner with 2977 yards this year.

Central Michigan – RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, with CMU going 4-2 ATS.

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NCAAF

Wednesday, December 26

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Little Caesars Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (6, 57)

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Western Kentucky makes its first bowl appearance in history as a program in transition. Coach Willie Taggart left to take the South Florida job, disgraced former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino takes over the Hilltoppers, but defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will guide the team in the bowl game.

2. Central Michigan saved its best football for a 13-day stretch in November. The Chippewas were 3-6 after losing to Western Michigan, but won three games in less than two weeks starting with a 34-31 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 10. A 42-21 triumph at Massachusetts moved Central Michigan to 6-6 on the season.

3. The Chippewas average 29.3 points; the Hilltoppers 28.8. The big difference comes on defense. Western Kentucky allows 25.6 points per game (second in the Sun Belt Conference), while Central Michigan surrenders 33.3. Western Kentucky struggled on defense down the stretch, allowing 30-plus points four times in six games to go 2-4. Losing senior defensive end Quanterus Smith (12 sacks) to a torn left ACL in the next-to-last game was a big blow.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Western Kentucky -6, O/U 57

CONSENSUS: Nearly 55 percent of Covers Consensus players are backing Western Kentucky and 58 percent like the over.

TRENDS:

* Hilltoppers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
* Chippewas are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Chippewas’ last five December games.
* Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers’ last five games following a win.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 4-4 Sun Belt): Junior running back Antonio Andrews comes in after two monster rushing games, finishing with 238 yards against Louisiana-Lafayette and 230 yards against North Texas. The Sun Belt’s leading rusher with 1,609 yards this season, Andrews has three games of 200-plus yards and leads the conference by averaging 248.1 all-purpose yards. The Hilltoppers have been particularly tough on opposing running games, holding opponents to only 136.6 yards on the ground (second in the conference). Junior linebacker Andrew Jackson leads Western Kentucky and ranks second in the conference in tackles (116).

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-4, 4-4 MAC): The Chippewas make their fourth appearance in the Detroit bowl since 2006, going 1-2. They have running back Zurlon Tipton to thank for helping fuel their last-season sprint. The junior rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns in the victory over Massachusetts, and has rushed for 110 or more yards in six consecutive games. Tipton rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Ryan Radcliff (2,905 yards, 20 touchdowns) finished third in the MAC in passing yards. Sophomore linebacker Justin Cherocci averaged 10.3 tackles per game, fourth in the conference.

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Wednesday, December 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Western Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Western Kentucky -6.5 500

Central Michigan - Under 56 500

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The Other Two Bowls Games Will Be Posted In A Bit

Thursday, December 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Jose State - 3:00 PM ET Bowling Green +7.5 500

Bowling Green - Under 44 500

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High-Scoring Game Expected Thursday In Holiday Bowl

San Jose State Spartans vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Military Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 3:00 p.m. (ET) Opening Lines: San Jose St -7½, O/U 47
Television: ESPN

San Jose State: A trip to the Military Bowl in the nation's capital is the Spartans' (10-2 straight-up and against the spread) reward for a second-place finish in the WAC. San Jose State finished the season with six consecutive wins, covering five in that stretch, and cashed seven "over" tickets in the last 10 games.

Bowling Green: The Falcons (8-4 SU and ATS) closed the regular season with seven wins in their last eight games, covering the spread in all seven victories. Bowling Green was an "under" bettor's dream with a 10-1 record to the low side of totals, a credit to the defense that ranked seventh nationally in fewest yards allowed (289.7 per game) and eighth in scoring (15.8 points per game allowed).

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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils
Belk Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 6:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Cincinnati -10, O/U 58
Television: ESPN

Cincinnati: Part of a four-way tie for the Big East title, the Bearcats (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) head to the Belk Bowl without Coach Butch Jones, who was lured away to take the same job at Tennessee. Steve Stripling will serve as the interim coach before Tommy Tuberville takes over in 2013. Cincinnati finished the regular season on a 4-1 run both SU and ATS.

Duke: Despite closing 0-4 both SU and ATS, the Blue Devils (6-6 SU and ATS) are taking part in the bowl season for the first time since 1995. Senior quarterback Sean Renfree directed the Duke offense with more than 2,700 yards passing and 18 touchdowns through the air, throwing for over 400 yards in the regular-season finale along with four TD strikes, including a 99-yarder to his favorite target Jamison Crowder.

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Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins
Holiday Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 9:45 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: UCLA -1, O/U 77½
Television: ESPN

Baylor: Coach Art Briles and the Bears (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished strong with four wins in their final five games to reach the Holiday Bowl. Baylor covered its last five games and went 8-3 "over" for the season. Senior QB Nick Florence ranks third in the country, averaging more than 343 yards passing per game, and the Bears' offense finished fifth in the nation in putting up over 44 points per contest.

UCLA: The Bruins (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) closed the regular season with back-to-back losses to Stanford, but they rewarded "over" bettors with a their last six contests each jumping the total. UCLA's ground game is 27th in the country (202.9 yards per game) behind senior tailback Johnathan Franklin, who ran for an even 1,700 yards (5th) and 13 scores plus hauled in 32 passes along the way, two of which went for touchdowns.