The Bum's 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

San Diego State At Home Against BYU In Poinsettia Bowl

Brigham Young Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Poinsettia Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/20/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: BYU -3, O/U 50
Television: ESPN

BYU Cougars: No stranger to playing bowl games in San Diego, the Cougars (7-5 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread) will make their first trip to the Poinsettia Bowl to meet the Aztecs as slight favorites. This is Brigham Young's 12th trip to San Diego for a bowl game after making 11 appearances in the Holiday Bowl over the years. The Cougars went 4-6-1 in those matchups that started in the late 70s. Coach Bronco Mendenhall's squad completed its second season as an independent and closed the 2012 campaign by winning three of the final four games, the "over" also 3-1 in that span. Backup quarterbacl James Lark led a 50-14 rout at New Mexico State in the season finale, completing 34-of-50 passes for 384 yards and six touchdowns, five of those scoring tosses hauled in by Cody Hoffman, the team's leading receiver. Lark was pressed into duty for Riley Nelson, who is probable but may not start the Poinsettia Bowl due to a rib injury (click for updated college football injury report).

San Diego State Aztecs: This is the second Poinsettia Bowl appearance for the Aztecs (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS), who won the 2010 contest vs. Navy, 35-14. San Diego State finished the 2012 campaign in a three-way tie for first in the Mountain West with Boise State and Fresno State, each team sporting 7-1 conference records. Coach Rocky Long's crew closed the schedule with seven consecutive triumphs after starting MWC play with a loss to Fresno State. The Aztecs bring the nation's 16th-ranked rushing attack into the battle with BYU, with the ground game led by sophomore tailback Adam Muema, who ranked 16th in the country averaging almost 113 yards per game. Adam Dingwell started SDSU's last four games of the season at QB after Ryan Katz suffered an ankle injury in the win over Nevada. Dingwell completed 71-of-115 pass attempts (61.7 percent) for eight touchdowns. This will be the 36th meeting between the Aztecs and Cougars, who own a 27-7-1 advantage over the years. BYU has won nine of the last 10 clashes with SDSU, covering two of the past three.

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Poinsettia Bowl preview

December 18, 2012

Two familiar foes from their days in the WAC and Mountain West Conferences will collide Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. San Diego St. will be bowling at home for the second time in three years, while BYU is in the postseason for the eighth straight season under Bronco Mendenhall.

Most books opened BYU (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 49 ½. As of late Tuesday afternoon, most spots had the Cougars favored by 3.5 with the total down to 48 ½. Gamblers can take the Aztecs to win outright for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Since losing back-to-back games in September, San Diego St. (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won seven consecutive games while compiling a 6-1 spread record. Rocky Long’s team is gunning for the first eight-game winning streak in school history. The Aztecs closed the regular season with a 42-28 win at Wyoming as seven-point ‘chalk.’ Sophomore running back Adam Muema was the catalyst against the Cowboys, rushing for 255 yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries.

Muema enjoyed a banner campaign, rushing for 1,355 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Senior RB Walter Kazee is also productive out of the backfield, tallying 822 rushing yards and eight TDs.

Oregon St. transfer Ryan Katz was the starting QB until sustaining a season-ending ankle injury in an Oct. 20 win over Nevada. Katz had thrown for 13 touchdowns compared to four interceptions, but the Aztecs haven’t missed a beat with sophomore Adam Dingwell.

Dingwell has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 795 yards with an 8/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The San Diego St. offense will face a stout BYU defense which is ranked third in the nation overall and second against the run. The Cougars give up only 84.3 yards rushing per game and 14.7 points per contest.

BYU lost four of its six games against bowl-bound teams, going 3-3 ATS. The Cougars’ best wins came over Utah St. (6-3) at home and at Ga. Tech (41-17). They have been single-digit favorites four times, limping to a 0-4 spread record.

BYU won three of its last four games, including a 50-14 win at New Mexico St. as a 28-point road favorite. Senior QB James Lark made the most of his first career start, throwing for 384 yards and six TDs without an interception.

Mendenhall has been playing coy about who will get the starting nod under center. Riley Nelson (ribs) will be available after sitting out the regular-season finale but according to Jay Drew, BYU’s beat writer for the Salt Lake City-Tribune, he will be ‘stunned’ if Lark doesn’t start.

Nelson, the senior starting QB for most of the year, has a 13/12 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Lark has eight TD passes without being picked off.

Junior WR Cody Hoffman is BYU’s best player on offense. Hoffman hauled in 90 receptions for 1,134 yards and 11 TDs. He is a physical wideout with excellent speed and an NFL future. Jamaal Williams paced the Cougars in rushing with 744 yards and 11 TDs.

San Diego St. went 3-1 ATS in four underdog situation this season, winning a pair of those games outright.

San Diego St. faced six bowl-bound squads this year, winning three of those games while going 4-2 ATS. The Aztecs won a pair of nail-biters at Nevada (39-38) and at Boise St. (21-19), and they also drilled Air Force by a 28-9 count as seven-point home ‘chalk.’

The ‘under’ has gone 6-5 overall for both teams this season. However, BYU has seen the ‘over’ hit a 3-1 clip in its last four games, while San Diego St. has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its last four outings.

BYU has won five in a row over San Diego St. and nine of the last 10. The Cougars went 3-2 ATS in the head-to-head showdowns from 2006-2010, including a 24-21 triumph two seasons ago.

BYU has won three straight bowl games both SU and ATS, including last year’s 24-21 win over Tulsa as a 2 ½-point favorite in the Armed Forces Bowl.

San Diego St. lost a 32-30 decision to UL-Lafayette as a four-point favorite in last season’s New Orleans Bowl. However, the Aztecs won the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago by mauling Navy, 35-14, as three-point favorites.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

San Diego State hosts BYU in Poinsettia Bowl

BYU COUGARS (7-5)
at SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (9-3)

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: BYU -2.5, Total: 48.5

BYU looks to retain its dominance over a former Mountain West foe when it plays a true road game at San Diego State in Thursday's Poinsettia Bowl.

BYU is 27-7-1 SU all-time in this series, including 9-1 SU in the past 10 meetings and five straight victories from 2006 to 2010, prevailing by an average of 18.6 PPG during this win streak. Cougars QB Riley Nelson missed the season finale with a ribs injury and was replaced by James Lark, who threw for 384 yards and 6 TD in his first collegiate start. Bronco Mendenhall has yet to name his starter for this game, and likely won't make a final decision until game day. SDSU is also using a second-string quarterback in Adam Dingwell, who has led the team to five straight wins since replacing the injured Ryan Katz. The Aztecs are a run-oriented offense (229 rushing YPG), but BYU has the 2nd-best rushing defense in FBS (84 YPG).

Can San Diego State pull off the mild upset on their home turf? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

If you look at the 2012 numbers of the two BYU signal callers, Lark (68% completions, 8 TD, 0 INT) is much more impressive than Nelson (59% completions, 13 TD, 12 INT). Nelson does have bowl experience though, completing 17-of-40 passes for 250 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT in last year's 24-21 Armed Forces Bowl win over Tulsa. Whoever the quarterback is will be relying heavily on junior WR Cody Hoffman, who has 90 catches for 1,134 yards -- 826 more than any other teammate -- to go along with 11 TD. Hoffman has seven 100-yard games this year, including three in a row. In his two career bowl games, Hoffman has 16 catches for 259 yards and six touchdowns, scoring three times in each victory. BYU's rushing offense hasn't been very effective in the past two games, gaining just 223 yards on 68 carries (3.3 YPC). Freshman RB Jamaal Williams has more than twice as many rushing yards (744) as any teammate (Taysom Hill, 336), scoring 11 touchdowns, including six over the past four games. Turnovers have been a problem for the Cougars for much of the season, as they have multiple giveaways in seven of 12 games. Defensively, this BYU squad is outstanding, ranking third in the nation in total defense (266 YPG) and fifth in scoring defense (14.7 PPG). The Cougars are tied for 22nd in the country in sacks (2.6 per game), but their defense doesn't make a whole lot of big plays though, forcing 0-to-1 turnovers in five of their past six games. BYU has won three straight bowl games, scoring 40.0 PPG in these three victories.

Aztecs QB Adam Dingwell has been solid since replacing injured Ryan Katz, completing 63% of his passes with 8 TD and 4 INT. Four of those touchdowns have gone to junior TE Gavin Escobar, who leads the team with 519 receiving yards. Escobar will be playing in his third bowl, catching seven passes for 94 yards over the prior two postseason games. Erratic junior WR Colin Lockett will also need a big game for his team to come out on top. He has four 100-yard receiving efforts this year, but also has six games of less than 50 receiving yards. Lockett was outstanding in last year's heart-breaking 32-30 New Orleans Bowl loss to UL-Lafayette though, catching six passes for 85 yards and three touchdowns. But San Diego State is a much better rushing team (229 YPG, 15th in nation), than passing offense (179 YPG, 106th in FBS). RB Adam Muema (113 rushing YPG, 16 TD) is coming off his best game of the year with 255 yards on 26 carries and 4 TD in a 42-28 win at Wyoming. The Aztecs defense allows 24.5 PPG and 375 total YPG on the season, but has been better recently, allowing less than 20 points in five of the past seven games and limiting the past four opponents to 338 total YPG (164 passing YPG). SDSU also has five games this year of at least three forced turnovers. The Aztecs are playing in their second Poinsettia Bowl in three years, crushing Navy 35-14 in 2010.

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Thursday, December 20

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BYU (7 - 5) at SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/20/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, December 20

8:00 PM
BYU vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
BYU is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State's last 6 games

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 205-206: BYU vs. San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 92.020; San Diego State 92.764
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 1; 52
Vegas Line: BYU by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+3); Over

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 20, 2012

San Diego County Credit Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. San Diego State, 1:00 ET ESPN
BYU: 8-0 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
San Diego State: 12-27 ATS off BB ATS wins

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, December 20

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego)
Home game for San Diego State, which won this game 35-14 in '10, then lost New Orleans Bowl LY; Aztecs won last seven games after 2-3 start, winning SU as underdogs at Nevada/Boise St. State is 3-1 as an underdog this year. BYU lost four of six road games this year, with only wins vs Ga Tech/New Mexico State; they won their last four games with former MWC rival Aztecs by average score of 38-22. Cougars are 6-0 if they score 30+ points, 1-5 if they don't; they're 3-4 as favorites this season. Aztecs held five of last seven foes under 20 points. BYU won last three bowls, scoring 40 ppg. MWC underdogs are 16-5 vs spread this season, 3-0 at home. BYU coach Mendenhall is 5-2 in bowls, San Diego State's Long 2-4. Underdogs covered four of last five Poinsettia Bowls, with Aztecs only one of the five favorites to cover. San Diego State is only team to beat Boise/Nevada in same season, since they've been I-A teams.


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NCAAF

Thursday, December 20

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Poinsettia Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Poinsettia Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs (+3, 48.5)

POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two former conference foes renew a rivalry that is much more important to San Diego State. The Aztecs are seeking their first 10-win season since 1977 and playing in a third consecutive bowl game for the initial time in program history. Brigham Young attempts to add on to its dominating 27-7-1 edge in the all-time series and is 5-2 in bowl games under eight-year coach Bronco Mendenhall.

2. Mendenhall has an interesting decision to make at quarterback between Riley Nelson and one-game sensation James Lark. Nelson has been maddeningly inconsistent and his absence because of injured ribs presented Lark with the opportunity to pass for 384 yards and six touchdowns in the regular-season finale against porous New Mexico State.

3. Mountain West Coach of the Year Rocky Long of San Diego State and Mendenhall are highly familiar with one another. Mendenhall was defensive coordinator under Long for five seasons (1998-2002) at New Mexico and considers him a mentor. The Aztecs’ atypical 3-3-5 defensive alignment doesn’t prompt an uncomfortable adjustment period for Mendenhall and the BYU staff, who have previously coached against it on several occasions.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: BYU opened between a 2.5 and 3.5-point favorite while the total has moved from 49 to as low as 48 before settling in between.

WEATHER: The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus picks are on BYU while 53 percent is on the under.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego State.
* Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (7-5, 6-6 ATS): No matter who starts at quarterback, junior receiver Cody Hoffman is a big-time threat with 90 catches for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. Hoffman caught a school-record five touchdowns in the season finale. Freshman Jamaal Williams rushed for a team-best 744 yards for an offense that averages 29.2 points. The Cougars shine on defense, led by junior Kyle Van Noy. The dominating linebacker has 11.5 sacks and five forced fumbles for a unit that ranks third in total defense (266.3 yards per game) and fifth in scoring defense (14.7). BYU’s stout rushing defense (84.3) ranks second nationally as it goes up against a strong San Diego State rushing attack. The Cougars often land an edge in field position with senior Riley Stephenson, who ranks second nationally in punting at 47.3 with a 42.2 net average.

ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 8-4 ATS): The Aztecs have won seven straight games and haven’t lost since September. San Diego State has set a school-record with 2,750 rushing yards – the old mark of 2,476 was set during Marshall Faulk’s freshman campaign in 1991 – with sophomore Adam Muema leading the way with 1,355 yards and 16 rushing scores. San Diego State will be without senior Walter Kazee (822 yards), who injured his knee in the regular season finale. The strong running game has aided sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell (eight touchdowns, four interceptions) after he became the starter for the final four regular season games because of a season-ending injury to Ryan Katz. Senior cornerback Leon McFadden (three interceptions) will be called on to help slow Hoffman, while junior safety Nat Berhe (team-best 87 tackles) and sophomore middle linebacker Jake Fely (86 stops, team-high seven sacks) are top-notch defenders.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, December 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brigham Young - 8:00 PM ET Brigham Young -3 500

San Diego State - Under 46 500

[StarDust Bum]

Kapt that UNDER is looking good bradda......

[StarDust Bum]

Beef 'O'Brady's Bowl Matches Up UCF With Ball State

Ball State Cardinals vs. Central Florida Knights
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/21/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: UCF -7½, O/U 63
Television: ESPN

Ball State Cardinals: A second-place finish in the MAC West sends the Cards (9-3 straight-up, 9-3 against the spread) to the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg against Central Florida. It's the first bowl appearance since the 2008 campaign when BSU went to the GMAC Bowl vs. Tulsa. Ball State ended the 2012 campaign with six consecutive wins, covering five of those victories. The Cardinals have injury concerns at quarterback where starter Keith Wenning is probable after missing the regular-season finale at Miami-OH with an ankle injury (click to check updated college football injury report). Backup Kelly Page is questionable with a concussion suffered in the win over Miami. A strong ground game is BSU's calling card with the team averaging 214.3 yards rushing per game. Sophomore Jahwan Edwards accounts for about half that figure with 110 yards per contest (21st in country). Ball State won the last meeting between these clubs in 2004, scoring a 21-17 victory at home to just cover the 3½-point spread.

UCF Knights: Runner-ups in Conference USA, Central Florida (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) suffered two tough losses to champion Tulsa in the final three games to fall just short of the title. The Knights bring a well-balanced offense into the contest, one reason behind 10 of their 13 games this campaign cashing for "over" bettors. Sophomore QB Blake Bortles directs the unit after completing over 62 percent of his passes this season for 2,787 yards and 22 TDs against seven interceptions. The ground attack features 1,000-yard rusher Latavius Murray, who averaged close to six yards per tote and scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Central Florida's defense ranked 42nd in the passing department, allowing less than 218 yards per game, and 29th in points allowed (22.5 per game). Each squad enters the game with solid "over" trends. Twelve of Ball State's last 17 contests have jumped the number while eight of Central Florida's last nine have gone past the mark.

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Ball St. clashes with UCF Friday in St. Pete

BALL STATE CARDINALS (9-3)
vs. UCF KNIGHTS (9-4)

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: UCF -7, Total: 62

Former MAC opponents meet for the first time since 2004, when Ball State challenges Central Florida in Friday's Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg.

The Cardinals have won six straight games (5-1 ATS), but have serious injury issues on the offensive line and with starters QB Keith Wenning (ankle) and WR Jamill Smith (foot) both less than 100 percent. Ball State has both scored and allowed at least 22 points in every game this year. UCF is 7-2 SU in its past nine contests with both losses coming to Tulsa by a combined eight points. Knights QB Blake Bortles has thrown for 15 TD and just 2 INT in his past 10 games. That most recent meeting in 2004 was a 21-17 Ball State win, but the Cardinals have never won a bowl game, getting outscored 37-19 on average in these five losses. UCF won the 2010 Liberty Bowl 10-6 over Georgia just one year after playing in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

Can Ball State finally win its first-ever bowl game? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Wenning ranks third in the MAC with 273 total YPG, but he hasn't thrown for 300 yards in any of his team's six straight victories. He does have at least 2 TD passes in each of the past four games though, totaling 10 TD and 5 INT. However, Ball State prefers to pound the football, averaging 214 rushing YPG, which ranks 3rd in the MAC and 23rd in the nation. The Cardinals have rushed for at least 165 yards in each of their six straight wins, averaging 229 YPG on 4.9 YPC. Sophomore Jahwan Edwards (110 rush YPG) is the main ball carrier, rumbling for 786 yards (63 YPC) and 9 TD over the past six games. Fellow sophomore RB Horactio Banks has also been running strong with 215 yards on 36 carries (6.0 YPC) in the past two weeks. These running backs have helped BSU's injury-riddled offensive line maintain its excellent 0.8 sacks allowed per game (T-9th in FBS). Ball State's defense continues to give up big chunks of yardage though, ranking 105th in the nation in total defense (460 YPG), and 108th against the run (206 YPG). The Cardinals have allowed more than 300 rushing yards in three of their past seven games and have forced exactly one turnover in each of the past four contests.

Bortles has thrown for 8 TD and 0 INT during the past five games, while rushing for another four scores. This has helped keep the Knights balanced in their pass/run selection and the team has committed just three turnovers in these five games combined. The offense continues to revolve around MAC leading rusher Latavius Murray (104 rush YPG) who has scored at least one touchdown in each of the past eight games. During this stretch, he's averaged 133 total YPG (897 rushing, 164 receiving) with 15 TD. Another hero for this team has been WR/KR Quincy McDuffie who leads the nation with 34.2 yards per kick return, running three kicks back for touchdowns this year. Defensively, UCF has allowed 23+ points in each of the past four games, giving up more than 200 rushing yards in three of these contests. But the Knights have been better defending the pass, holding seven opponents to 165 passing yards or less. They don't put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks though, with a mere 1.8 sacks per game.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, December 21

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Beef O'Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Beef O'Brady's Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Ball State Cardinals (+7, 61.5)

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL STORYLINES

1. Ball State began the season 3-3 and has won six straight games since, while Central Florida was victorious in two of its first four games before finishing 7-2.

2. Jahwan Edwards of Ball State and Central Florida’s Latavius Murray have each rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals average 214.3 yards and UCF 178.7 on the ground.

3. Ball State has won four games with scores in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Central Florida is 2-3 in games decided by seven points or less.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Central Florida opened as a touchdown favorite and has remained steady. The total has also stood pat at 61.5 points.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Ball State while 58 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. MAC.
* Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-2 in Knights' last nine vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 9-3 ATS): The Cardinals are tied for the third most victories in the program’s history, thanks to a productive offense. Ball State’s losses are to Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State - who combined for a 33-5 record - and the Cardinals have averaged 31 points in those games. Quarterback Keith Wenning, who is probable with an Achilles injury which kept him out of the last regular-season game, has completed 65.5 percent of his passes and thrown for 22 touchdowns while averaging 261.2 yards. Willie Snead is the top target with 82 receptions and 1,070 yards and 135-pound Jamill Smith has 69 for 706. Edwards, who has totaled of 1,321 yards, keys a ground game that has produced more than 220 yards in four of the last five games. Linebacker Travis Freeman is the nation’s active leader in career tackles with 455. Ball State is 0-5 in bowl games and plays in its first since the 2008-09 season.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-4, 7-1 C-USA, 6-7 ATS): The Knights have lost to undefeated Ohio State, bowl-bound Tulsa twice and Missouri – three of those by six points or less. Central Florida, which has won one of three games all time against Ball State, has been balanced by scoring 31 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Murray has 1,035 yards rushing in 10 games. Quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown 22 touchdown passes with only seven interceptions – three less than his counterpart. Bortles averages more than 200 yards and has completed 62.6 percent of his passes. J.J. Worton, Rannell Hall and Jeff Godfrey all have at least 31 receptions and 400 yards, combining for 11 scores. Central Florida is tied for 16th in the nation in turnover margin plus .85). The Knights are 1-3 in bowl games, winning their last against Georgia in the 2010 Liberty Bowl. They lost to Rutgers 45-24 in the 2009 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, December 21

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BALL ST (9 - 3) vs. UCF (9 - 4) - 12/21/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 21

7:30 PM
BALL STATE vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ball State's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Central Florida's last 9 games
Central Florida is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

Game 207-208: Central Florida vs. Ball State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 95.374; Ball State 83.632
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 11 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-7); Under

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Friday, December 21, 2012

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Ball State vs. Central Florida, 7:30 ET ESPN
Ball State: 6-0 ATS off a road win
Central Florida: 9-1 Over as a favorite

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Friday, December 21

Beef O'Brady Bowl (St Petersburg)
First bowl for Ball State since their 12-2 season in '08; they lost last two bowls, 52-30/45-13, are 0-5 all-time (1-2 vs spread). 90-minute trip west for UCF, which lost 45-24 (+2) in this game to Rutgers three years ago; Knights are 1-3 in bowls- they beat Georgia 10-6 in Liberty Bowl two years ago, their last bowl. Ball State won last six games after a 3-3 start; losing side scored 26+ points in 8 of their 12 games. Cardinals are 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; UCF is 5-5 as a favorite. 10 of 13 UCF games went over total; Cardinals allowed 400+ TY in nine of 12 games. MAC dogs are 17-15 vs spread, 13-11 on road. C-USA favorites are 4-6 vs spread this season. Indoor game, so weather not an issue. Favorites covered three of previous four O'Brady games, with C-USA teams 1-3 in those games, but all three losses were to Big East teams.

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[StarDust Bum]

Friday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Florida - 7:30 PM ET Ball State +7 500 POD

Ball State - Over 61.5 500 POD TOTAL

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Las Vegas Bowl preview

December 21, 2012

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (10-2) vs. WASHINGTON HUSKIES (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Boise State -5.5 & 44.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -5.5 & 46

No. 20 Boise State returns to a familiar place when it battles Washington in Saturday's Las Vegas Bowl.

This is the third straight Las Vegas Bowl for the Broncos who have outscored opponents 99-37 during a three-game bowl win streak. This matchup features two schools that each scored 56 points last bowl season, but the Huskies surrendered 67 points in a loss to Baylor, while Boise State allowed just 24 to Arizona State.

Washington is just 2-4 both straight up and against the spread in non-home games, losing to 14-point underdog Washington State in the regular season finale. The Broncos are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from the blue turf with the lone loss coming in August by just four points at Michigan State. The Huskies turned things around after a 3-4 start to the season, reeling off four consecutive wins (both SU and ATS) before losing to Washington State in overtime in the season finale in one of those throw-out-the-records-when-these-teams-face-each-other rivalry games. They won each of the first three games of that four-game win streak despite being an underdog in each of them, beating an Oregon State team that had previously been undefeated, then winning by 8 at California before blowing out Utah by 19 at home.

Although Boise State isn't the high-octane offense that it was under departed QB Kellen Moore (44.7 PPG in 2010-2011), the school still put up 30.4 PPG and 390 total YPG with Joe Southwick under center. And the junior is playing his best football late in the year, completing 53-of-75 passes (71%) for 624 yards (8.3 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to three straight victories. RB D.J. Harper (1,065 rush yds, 15 TD) is the focal point of this Broncos offense with six 100-yard rushing games, including two in row.

The Broncos defense has been top-notch all year, ranking ninth in the FBS in total defense (305 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.9 PPG). DE Demarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL) anchors a stout front four while senior LB J.C. Percy mans with the middle with a team-best 101 total tackles (61 solo). The secondary has also performed at a high level, giving up just 163 passing YPG, which is tied for the 4th-fewest in the nation. Boise State has allowed a mere three TD passes all year while picking off 16 passes.

This Boise defense could create a lot of problems for Washington QB Keith Price who has majorly regressed in his junior season with 15 fewer passing TD and a considerably lower passing efficiency (124.48, 77th in FBS) than in 2011 (161.93 rating, 7th in FBS). The Huskies are trying to shake off a tough loss to rival Washington State, when they relinquished an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 31-28 in overtime. Price had a key fumble in the final quarter and then threw an interception in the extra session to seal his team's fate. There have been no complaints about the job RB Bishop Sankey has done in replacing departed star RB Chris Polk this year. Sankey (1,234 rush yds, 15 TD) has rushed for more than 80 yards in nine of the past 10 games, topping 100 yards in six of those contests. In the past four games, Sankey has totaled 637 yards from scrimmage (159 YPG) with 6 TD runs.

The loss to WSU ended a four-game win streak where the defense allowed just 48 points combined (12.0 PPG). This unit has made tremendous strides since last bowl season when they allowed 67 points and 777 total yards in the Alamo Bowl loss to Baylor. The Huskies give up just 23.8 PPG and 353 total YPG for the season, a huge improvement from the 453 total YPG and 35.9 PPG from 2011. In the past five games, the Huskies have forced 19 turnovers (3.8 per week).

[StarDust Bum]

College Bowl Trends - Part I

December 21, 2012



Saturday, Dec. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (New Orleans Bowl)...ULL returns to the sight of its exciting bowl win over San Diego State last December. Ragin' Cajuns 4-2 vs. line away from Lafayette this season, 17-4 in that role since 2010 campaign. Ruffin McNeill's ECU only 2-6 vs. spread its last eight away from Greenville. Louisiana, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...Boise's third straight Las Vegas Bowl, won and covered handily the past two years. Chris Petersen has covered last four and five of six bowls since taking over as Bronco coach in 2006. Boise 26-8 vs. number away from blue carpet since 2008 season. Huskies just 4-8 vs. line away since 2011, and U-Dub 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls under Steve Sarkisian. Boise State, based on road and bowl marks.

Monday, Dec. 24
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SMU vs. FRESNO STATE (Sheraton Bowl)...Fresno was a pointspread revelation this season, covering 11 of its 12 games on the board. Bulldogs also 4-0 vs. spread outside of Mountain West and are 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Bulldog Stadium. June Jones just 1-4 vs. line away from Dallas this season and 2-7 vs. spread last nine on road since mid 2011. Fresno State, based on team trends.

Wednesday, Dec. 26
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Little Caesars Bowl)...Chippewas closed with a flourish by winning and covering their last three and four of their last five this season. Previously, CMU had been a pointspread disaster, dropping 24 of previous 32 decisions vs. number. WKU went in mostly the opposite direction, its 17-game spread win streak snapped near midseason and dropping four of last six vs. spread. But Hilltoppers have covered all 12 of their spread decisions away from Bowling Green since 2011! Western Kentucky, based on extended team trends.

Thursday, Dec. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE (Military Bowl)...San Jose has been on quite a pointspread run since last season, covering last four and ten of twelve in 2012, 13 of last 15 since late 2011, and 18 of last 22 on board since early 2011. Spartans have also covered their last eight away from home. Bowling Green also closed fast in 2012 with covers in seven of its last eight games this season. Falcs have lost and failed to cover their last two bowls and haven't won and covered in a bowl game since 2004 against Memphis in GMAC Bowl. San Jose State, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI vs. DUKE (Belk Charlotte Bowl)...First Duke bowl game since Fred Goldsmith's 1994 Blue Devils faced Wisconsin and lost to Badgers 34-20 in Hall of Fame (now Outback) Bowl in Tampa; prior to that, Duke hadn't "bowled" since 1989 under Steve Spurrier and hasn't won a bowl since beating Arkansas 7-6 in the 1961 Cotton Bowl! Blue Devils closed slowly this season by losing and failing to cover their last four games, but HC David Cutcliffe is 2-0 SU in bowls dating to his Ole Miss days. Cutcliffe is 5-1 vs. line last six against non-ACC opposition. Duke, based on team trends.

BAYLOR vs. UCLA (Holiday Bowl)...Baylor closed season on an uptick with covers in its last five games, and Bears 16-8 overall vs. number the last two season. Art Briles only 1-3 SU in bowl games, however. Bruins 8-5 vs. line in Jim Mora debut season. Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

Friday, Dec. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OHIO vs. UL-MONROE (Independence Bowl, Friday)... Solich hit the skids vs. number as 2012 progressed, only 1-7 vs. spread last eight TY. Solich also no covers last four on road TY. Solich won and covered his bowl games last year (vs. Utah State) but previously was 0-3 SU and vs. line as bowl coach with the Bobcats. Meanwhile, ULM 6-1 vs. line away from home this season and 8-1 against spread last nine away from Malone Stadium since late 2011. UL-Monroe, based on team trends.

RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Rutgers cooled off down the stretch this season, losing and failing to cover four of is last five games, but Beamer had more problems, only 3-9 against the line this season. Hokies only 7-20 last 27 games on board since late in 2010 campaign, and Beamer only 4-7 vs. spread last his last 11 bowl games. Scarlet Knights 16-9 vs. number overall since 2011. Rutgers, based on recent Beamer spread woes.

MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH (Meineke Texas Bowl)...Rematch of 2006 Insight Bowl when Minnesota blew a huge lead to lose in OT and Glen Mason was dismissed after the game. Gophers last bowled in 2009 but have lost four straight in postseason (1-3 vs. line in those) since 20-16 win over Alabama in 2004 Liberty Bowl. Texas Tech again faded down stretch, no covers last five this season, and Red Raiders1-9 vs. spread last five games of the past two campaigns. Minnesota, based on Texas Tech late-season fade numbers.

Saturday, Dec. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AIR FORCE vs. RICE (Armed Forces Bowl)... Air Force has covered its last three bowl games after Troy Calhoun lost and failed to cover his first two in postseason. Four of the Calhoun bowl games have been in this Armed Forces Bowl. But Falcs really backed up down the stretch in 2012 with no covers in last four games and just 3-9 overall vs. spread this season. Falcs just 12-23 overall last 35 vs. number since early in 2010 season. Rice won four of last five SU this season and covered five of its last six for David Bailiff. Rice, based on team trends.

NAVY vs. ARIZONA STATE (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)...Navy dropped its last four vs. the number in 2012 but has covered in five of its last seven bowl. Mids also 20-12 vs. spread as dog since 2007, and Navy 26-13 vs. spread its last 39 as a dog dating to the middle of the 2004 season. ASU cooled off after a quick start this season and dropped 4 of its last six vs. the number, and Sun Devils have not covered in their last four bowls (last bowl cover in 2004 Sun Bowl vs. Purdue). Navy, based on extended team and bowl trends.

WEST VIRGINIA vs. SYRACUSE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Former Big East rivals! Cuse won meetings the past two seasons as DD underdog on both occasions. Orange also closed this season hot, winning and covering five of last six. WVU earned covers in its last three but had dropped 6 of previous 7 vs. number this season. Syracuse, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE vs. TEXAS (Alamo Bowl)... Mack Brown only 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls, while Mike Riley 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. line in bowls with OSU since 2003. Texas 15-24 last 38 vs. spread since late 2009. Beavers 9-2 vs. line this season and 4-1 vs. line on road in 2012. Oregon State, based on team and extended bowl trends.

TCU vs. MICHIGAN STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)...Mark Dantonio 1-4 SU, 2-3 vs. spread in bowl games with MSU since 2007. Spartans only 4-8 vs. line this season but did cover 4 of 5 away from East Lansing (MSU was terrible 0-7 vs. spread as host this season) and are 9-3 against spread last 12 away from Spartan Stadium. Note Gary Patterson is 3-1 SU but 0-4 vs. line in last four bowls, and Frogs have won 6 of last 7 bowl games SU. Slight to TCU, based on recent bowl SU record.

Monday, Dec. 31
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NC STATE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City Bowl)... NCS has covered its last seven bowls which extends to the Amato and O'Brien regimes. Pack only 1-5 vs. line away from Raleigh this season but extended dog mark is good (11-6-1 since 2010, 28-16-1 since 2007 receiving points). Vandy 9-4 vs. points in 2012 and 18-8 vs. line under James Franklin since 2011, although Dores failed to cover bowl last year vs. Cincy. NC State, based on extended bowl numbers.

GEORGIA TECH vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Sun Bowl)... SC subpar 3-9 vs. number this season and 0-6 against number away from Coliseum. Lane Kiffin 0-1 in bowls (2009 with Tennessee against Virginia Tech in Chick fil-A Bowl). Trojans just 19-30 last 49 on board since early 2009. Paul Johnson 0-4 vs. line in bowls at GT but covered 3 of 4 in bowls with GT. Jackets 8-5 vs. line in 2012. Georgia Tech, based on SC road woes.

IOWA STATE vs. TULSA (Liberty Bowl)...Rematch from ISU's 38-23 in opener of 2012 season at Ames. Tulsa 4-2 SU and vs. line last six bowl games, and Blankenship 13-7 vs. spread last 20 on board since mid 2011. Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.

CLEMSON vs. LSU (Chick fil-A Bowl)...Les Miles 5-2 SU and vs. spread in bowls with LSU, although he did lose last year's BCS title game vs. Alabama. LSU only 1-3 vs. line as road favorite this season, but he was 10-4 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2010-11. Dabo only 5-5 as dog since 2010 (1-1 TY) and is just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls the past four seasons. LSU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

ECU travels to New Orleans to face UL-Lafayette Saturday

EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (8-4)
vs. UL-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS (8-4)

New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisiana-Lafayette -5, Total: 65.5

Louisiana-Lafayette will end its season close to home once again when they play in their second straight New Orleans Bowl Saturday versus East Carolina.

Both teams enter this game with high-scoring, three-game win streaks. ECU has scored 47.0 PPG during its surge while ULL has 39.3 PPG during its three-game ride. However, the Pirates have been held to 20 points or less during a three-game bowl losing skid. The Ragin' Cajuns have appeared in just one bowl since 1970, winning last year's New Orleans Bowl 32-30 over SDSU with a Brett Baer 50-yard FG as time expired. East Carolina QB Shane Carden has 17 TD passes in his past seven games, while UL-Lafayette QB Terrence Broadway has 349 total YPG in his past seven contests.

Can Louisiana-Lafayette win a second straight New Orleans Bowl? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Carden averages a solid 243 total YPG, but that number has risen significantly in the past five games to 326 YPG. Although Carden prefers to stay in the pocket, he does have four rushing touchdowns in the past two games, including 3 TD in the 65-59 double overtime win over Marshall in the last game. ECU leaves most of the ground duty to RB Vintavious Cooper who ranks fifth in Conference USA with 86 rushing YPG. In the past five games, Cooper has rushed for 572 yards (114 YPG) on 5.4 YPC with seven total touchdowns. It's a good thing the offense has been so efficient lately, because ECU's defense has surrendered 40.2 PPG over the past five games including two 50-point outbursts. The passing defense has been burned all year (272 YPG, 108th in FBS), but the rushing defense (146 YPG, 46th in FBS) has been excellent over the past three games, allowing just 251 yards on 78 carries (3.2 YPC).

Broadway has been a true dual-threat QB during ULL's three-game win streak, completing 66% of his passes for 736 yards and 4 TDs, while rushing for 354 yards on just 42 carries (8.4 YPC) and 3 TD. He's the biggest reason the team has piled up 118 points (39.3 PPG) and 1,572 total yards (524 YPG) during the win streak. Sophomore RB Alonzo Harris is also producing nicely with back-to-back 100-yard games, totaling 231 yards on just 31 carries (7.5 YPC) with 3 TD. Harris rushed for a pedestrian 62 yards on 15 carries (4.1 YPC) in last year's New Orleans Bowl win over San Diego State. While the Cajuns offense is in good shape, the defense has some issues, especially defending the pass where they allow 284 passing YPG (10th-most in FBS). ULL's run defense has made great strides though, limiting the past five opponents to 138 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC. The Ragin' Cajuns also rank second in the Sun Belt in both sacks (2.2 per game) and Tackles For Loss (6.5 per game).

[StarDust Bum]

No. 20 Boise meets Washington in Las Vegas Bowl

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (10-2)
vs. WASHINGTON HUSKIES (7-5)

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -5.5, Total: 44.5

No. 20 Boise State returns to a familiar place when it battles Washington in Saturday's Las Vegas Bowl.

This is the third straight Las Vegas Bowl for the Broncos who have outscored opponents 99-37 during a three-game bowl win streak. This matchup features two schools that each scored 56 points last bowl season, but the Huskies surrendered 67 points in a loss to Baylor, while Boise State allowed just 24 to Arizona State. Washington is just 2-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games, losing to 14-point underdog Washington State in the regular season finale. The Broncos are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from the blue turf with the lone loss coming in August by just four points at Michigan State.

Can Boise State win its third Las Vegas Bowl in three years? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Although Boise State isn't the high-octane offense that it was under departed QB Kellen Moore (44.7 PPG in 2010-2011), the school still put up 30.4 PPG and 390 total YPG with Joe Southwick under center. And the junior is playing his best football late in the year, completing 53-of-75 passes (71%) for 624 yards (8.3 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to three straight victories. RB D.J. Harper (1,065 rush yds, 15 TD) is the focal point of this Broncos offense with six 100-yard rushing games, including two in row. The Broncos defense has been top-notch all year, ranking ninth in the FBS in total defense (305 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.9 PPG). DE Demarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL) anchors a stout front four while senior LB J.C. Percy mans with the middle with a team-best 101 total tackles (61 solo). The secondary has also performed at a high level, giving up just 163 passing YPG, which is tied for the 4th-fewest in the nation. Boise State has allowed a mere three TD passes all year while picking off 16 passes.

This Boise defense could create a lot of problems for Washington QB Keith Price who has majorly regressed in his junior season with 15 fewer passing TD and a considerably lower passing efficiency (124.48, 77th in FBS) than in 2011 (161.93 rating, 7th in FBS). The Huskies are trying to shake off a tough loss to rival Washington State, when they relinquished an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 31-28 in overtime. Price had a key fumble in the final quarter and then threw an interception in the extra session to seal his team's fate. There have been no complaints about the job RB Bishop Sankey has done in replacing departed star RB Chris Polk this year. Sankey (1,234 rush yds, 15 TD) has rushed for more than 80 yards in nine of the past 10 games, topping 100 yards in six of those contests. In the past four games, Sankey has totaled 637 yards from scrimmage (159 YPG) with 6 TD runs. The loss to WSU ended a four-game win streak where the defense allowed just 48 points combined (12.0 PPG). This unit has made tremendous strides since last bowl season when they allowed 67 points and 777 total yards in the Alamo Bowl loss to Baylor. The Huskies give up just 23.8 PPG and 353 total YPG for the season, a huge improvement from the 453 total YPG and 35.9 PPG from 2011. In the past five games, the Huskies have forced 19 turnovers (3.8 per week).