The Bum's November's NFL Best Bets !

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Struggling Chiefs Visit Steelers As Double-Digit Underdogs

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/12/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pittsburgh -12½, O/U 43½
Television: ESPN

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (5-3 straight-up, 4-4 against the spread) are coming off a 24-20 home win over the New York Giants where they came back from down 10 points in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a good game against the Giants, and he has six touchdowns and only two inteceptions during the team's three-game winning streak. The wide receiver duo of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown has combined for 1,024 receiving yards on the season, and Big Ben will likely have time to find them facing a Chiefs pass rush that only has 14 sacks on the season. The running game is led by RB Jonathan Dwyer, who has rushed for over 100 yards in two straight games, and he is one of the reasons the Steelers have gotten back on track. In their last three games, they are putting up an average of 155 rushing yards per game, with RB Isaac Redman totaling a career-high 147 yards on the ground filling in for Dwyer last week. Defensively, the Steelers have missed some key guys, including safety Troy Polamalu who is still out with a calf injury (click to check updated NFL injury report). However, Pittsburgh has still played good D with the league’s top-ranked passing defense and seventh-ranked rushing defense. The Steelers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 home games, and in their last six home games the total has gone "under" every time.

Kansas City Chiefs: With QB Brady Quinn still out with a concussion, Matt Cassel will get another start for the Chiefs (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS), and to say he has struggled this season is a major understatement. Kansas City has the most turnovers in the league by a wide margin, and Cassel is one of the main culprits with 11 interceptions and seven lost fumbles. He has WR Dwayne Bowe, who has had a pretty good season, but after him the receiving corps is a pretty weak one. That is not good facing the best pass defense in the league. One player who has to play well for the Chiefs to pull off the big upset is RB Jamaal Charles, who he has a neck injury but is listed as probable on the injury report for this game. Charles has had some big games this season, including rushing for 233 yards in Week 3, but in his last three games, he has totaled a combined 83 yards on the ground and has not had a rushing TD in his last 4 games. KC's defense has given up 30 points per game, which is the worst in the NFL. The unit has really been torched on the ground and while the pass D played pretty well in the first few games, the team has not done so well in the last few. Overall, the Chiefs rank 11th in the league defending the pass and 23rd defending the run. They have failed to cover the spread in their last five games but have covered in five of their last seven when playing a team with a winning record. In KC's last 19 games overall, the total has gone "under" 13 times.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 11

November 9, 2012

Saturday - Oregon State at Stanford (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

This game has taken on a different look than it would have had in past weeks. The Oregon State Beavers turn to QB Cody Vaz for a second straight game, as he gets the nod over Sean Mannion (knee), who is not quite 100 percent. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan gets the start over Josh Nunes, based mostly on performance. Hogan passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while giving the Cardinal an added dimension with his tremendous escapability in the pocket. Of course, that success came against an awful Colorado team, not a nationally-ranked and dangerous Oregon State club. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season, and they lead the Pac-12 with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Stanford is 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 Pac-12 games, and 22-10 ATS in their past 32 in Palo Alto, so something has to give. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the under might be the best play here. The under has cashed in four of Oregon State's past five games following an ATS win, and the under is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford overall, and 5-1 in their past six conference games. In this series, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Palo Alto.

Saturday - Arizona State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Trojans limp into this game losers of two straight, and the Sun Devils would just love to help add to their woes while becoming bowl eligible with a signature win. USC has failed to cover in four of their past five games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record. In addition, USC is 0-4 ATS at the Coliseum against a visiting team with a winning record. For AZ State, they haven't had much more success. While they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, they are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 Pac-12 games, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. In addition, they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils are also 9-24-2 ATS in their past 35 road contests against a team with a winning home record. This game screams stay away.

Saturday - Utah at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

Utah has turned it around lately, at least for bettors. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. However, Washington has been equally impressive, especially at home, registering wins against Top 10 opponents (at the time) Stanford and Oregon State. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. U-Dub is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, the under is what really might draw the eye of bettors. The under has cashed in four straight roadies for Utah, and the under is 9-4 in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. For Washington, the under has cashed in six straight games in Seattle, and is 6-2 in their past eight overall. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven conference clashes.

Saturday - UCLA at Washington State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The UCLA Bruins have been a bit of a tease this season. Just when you think they have it going in the right direction and they should roll over an opponent on their schedule, they falter. It happened against Oregon State earlier this season, although the Beavers turned out to be no slouch. But then it happened again at Cal a few weeks ago, and they were rolled - badly. UCLA is just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games, so a trip to the Palouse might not be the fuel this team needs to keep going. The Cougs are still trying to find some consistency, and they are ineligible for a bowl following their seventh loss last time out. However, they are 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. In addition, they are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games in Pullman against a team with a winning record. If you need further push to pick WaZu, consider the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups in this series. The Bruins are also 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings at Washington State.

Saturday - Oregon at California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

The high-flying Ducks take their show on the road to Berkeley this weekend. While it is widely expected they will win, and win handily, a cover might not necessarily be a given. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Of course, that featured some much better Bears teams. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. In addition, Jeff Tedford's group is just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, one spanking of UCLA last month was the lone exception. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games, 6-0 ATS in their past six games on grass, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. They have also covered in four straight Pac-12 games. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time, but are you brave enough to bet an under in an Oregon game? The over has cashed in 23 of Oregon's past 31 conference games, and is 35-17 in their past 52 games overall.

Saturday - Colorado at Arizona (FX, 1:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

The Buffaloes have been downright abysmal this season, and they likely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. Colorado is 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games against a team with a winning record, so it isn't just this season that they have struggled. They are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 conference games, and they are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games on a grass surface. On the other side, Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record. The over might be a better play, as the over has come through in 21 of Colorado's past 30 games in the month of November. The over has cashed in five straight games for Arizona, and is 4-0 in their past four games in Tucson. The over is also 16-5 in Arizona's past 21 Pac-12 skirmishes.

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Big Ten Report - Week 11

November 7, 2012

The week's most important matchup takes place in Bloomington, Indiana. Wisconsin travels to face the Hoosiers and the winner has a head-start in the Leaders division race to represent the division in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers are off of a bye week and have to replace their starting quarterback while Indiana is off of a come-from-behind victory over Iowa. ASA analyzes this matchup as well as every other Big Ten matchup in this week's breakdown.

Indiana (+7) vs. Wisconsin - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
IU: Last week vs. Iowa: W 24-21
UW: Last week - BYE

This is the biggest game in Bloomington in recent memory. The Hoosiers can pull even with Wisconsin and would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the Leaders Division spot in the Big Ten title game if they can win their third straight conference game. Despite the five losses, the Hoosiers have been in every game they've played. Only one of their five losses was by more than four points. In last week's win over Iowa, Indiana fell behind 14-0 early in the 1st quarter. They battled back, thanks to 406 passing yards from QB's Coffman and Sudfeld, and won 24-21. Coffman and Sudfeld have combined to complete 63% passes this season with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The defense is getting better, as it has allowed just 31 total points over the past two weeks. They do rank 108th in rush defense, and they'll have to shore that up as one of the nation's premier power-running offenses comes to town.

The Badgers have had two weeks off to try and figure out their new situation as starter Joel Stave will miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. Curt Phillips and Danny O'Brien have been battling it out and coaches haven't indicated who will start; but we anticipate both quarterbacks seeing the field. The Badgers managed just 19 yards on 37 carries in the Badgers last game loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. RB's Ball and White look to get back on track against this porous Indiana rush-defense. Defensively this will be the best passing attack that Wisconsin has faced thus far. The Badgers pass-defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete just 55% this season, but they've surrendered 15 touchdown passes with just four interceptions. Still, this unit hasn't surrendered more than 16 points in the last four games.

Recent history: Wisconsin has won seven straight in this series by an average of 33.5 points and is 5-1 ATS over the past six. Last year the Badgers piled up 332 rush yards in a 59-7 win. Wisco has scored 83 and 59 points in back-to-back wins over the Hoosiers.

Trends: Wisconsin is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a Big Ten road favorite. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The last five times these two have met the score has gone 'over' the total.

Injury report: Badgers' star LT Rick Wagner is poised to return to the starting lineup after missing two weeks with a right knee injury.

Nebraska (-7) vs. Penn State - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
UN: Last week at Michigan State: W 28-24
PSU: Last week at Purdue: W 34-9

The Huskers are in first place in the Legends division, but they can't clinch title yet.

For the second consecutive road game, Nebraska faced a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. And once again, the Huskers found a way to win. QB Taylor Martinez overcame three turnovers to fire the game-winning touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. He also led Nebraska with 205 rush yards and two scores. Overall the Huskers tallied 313 rush yards on a 7.8 YPC average while the defense limited MSU QB Maxwell to just 9-of-27 completions. They'll try to avoid a "hangover" after that big road win and get another quality win over the Nittany Lions.

Penn State isn't eligible for the Big Ten championship or any bowl, so they will play spoiler in both division races. Chances are the Nittany Lions will have an impact on the races with this game and remaining ones against both Indiana and Wisconsin. The Lions bounced back well from their first Big Ten loss two weeks ago with a big win at Purdue last Saturday. PSU was dominant on both sides of the ball, racking up 506 total yards and 25 first downs. QB McGloin passed for over 300 yards with two touchdowns and RB Zwinak ran for 134 yards. The defensive unit held Purdue to just 87 rush yards on a 3.3 YPC average and nine total points (Purdue scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds). Penn State is 3-0 in Big Ten road games so far, winning by an average score of 36-10.

Recent history: Last year Penn State faced Nebraska in the first game in over 40 years without head coach Joe Paterno. The Nittany Lions put together a valiant effort, but Nebraksa won 17-14 at home. No doubt PSU will be motivated to avenge that loss with a big home win on Saturday.

Trends: Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last five home games.

Injury report: Penn State DT Jordan Hill and TE Kyle Carter are both day-to-day for this week's game at Nebraska, coach Bill O'Brien said. RB Curtis Dukes is out for the Nebraska game.

Michigan (-11) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN
UM: Last week at Minnesota: W 35-13
NU: Last week - BYE

The loser of this game is all but eliminated from the Legends division. Michigan did just fine last week without QB Robinson in the lineup. The Wolves started a little slow, leading just 14-7 at halftime over Minnesota. But backup QB Devin Gardner passed for 234 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown - leading the Wolves to a 35-13 victory. Defensively Michigan frustrated Minnesota's freshman QB and also held the Gophers to just 3.3 YPC rushing. Michigan ranks 1st nationally against the pass this season, but they've been vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses to town this weekend.

Northwestern has seemingly settled on QB Kain Colter as the full-time option after Siemian didn't get much playing time last game. Northwestern had a huge day offensively against the Hawkeyes two weeks ago. The Wildcats controlled the ball with 49 rushing attempts for 349 yards (7.1 YPC). QB Colter and RB Mark each topped 160 rush yards while the defense held Iowa to just 17 points.

Recent history: Michigan is 6-1 straight-up against the Wildcats the last seven meetings. Northwestern's one victory over that span was in the Big House in 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Last season the Wolverines tallied 541 total yards in the 42-24 victory over the Wildcats. QB Robinson accounted for 454 and four touchdowns alone in that game.

Trends: Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. Michigan is just 10-26 ATS in its last 36 conference games. The final score has remained 'under' the total in four of the last five meetings.

Injury report: Brady Hoke hasn't stated whether or not QB Robinson will play this weekend. Hoke only indicated that he's "getting healthier." Northwestern hopes to regain the services of injured defensive backs Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans, who are both questionable for this game.

Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-52
UM: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-35

Minnesota can gain postseason eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win here over the Illini. The Gophers are off of a disappointing loss against Michigan where they failed to capitalize on a Robinson-less Wolverine squad. Minnesota squandered numerous chances in the red-zone and couldn't stop Michigan's back-up QB. The good news is that it was another promising start for freshman quarterback Philip Nelson, who passed for 142 yards and one touchdown. The defense will try to get back on track this week against a hapless Illinois offense.

Illinois is officially not going bowling this postseason after its seventh loss of the season last week to Ohio State. The Illini were only losing 6-7 at the end of the first quarter to OSU, but by halftime it was 31-6. The offense managed just 170 total yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and QB Scheelhaase completed 19 passes for 96 yards. Defensively Illinois allowed an astonishing 567 yards and 32 first downs. This D unit actually features a lot of talent, but it hasn't stood a chance in most games this season because their offense can't stay on the field.

Recent history: Minnesota has won its last three trips to Champaign (3-0 ATS) and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Minnesota held Illinois to just 160 yards and 11 first downs in last year's 27-7 victory in Minneapolis. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Trends: Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Illini have failed to cover six straight games overall.

Injury report: Illinois LB Jonathan Brown is out for Saturday's game against Minnesota, coach Tim Beckman confirmed. Brown was an all-Big Ten player in 2011 who is tied for the team lead in tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss. Minnesota WR A.J. Barker is doubtful for the Illinois game. Barker is the Gophers' top receiver with 577 yards & 7 TD's.

Iowa (-5) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Indiana: L 21-24
PU: Last week vs. Penn State: L 9-34

Talk about a matchup of two teams that could really use a win. The Boilers have been in a five-week tailspin that might well cost head coach Danny Hope his job. All but one of those losses was by 16+ points and all five were by an average of 21 PPG. Purdue still has a glimmer of hope for a bowl if they win out this season, but things definitely aren't looking up. The defense has allowed an average of 38 points per game over the last six games and offensively the quarterbacks are stalling everything. The trio of TerBush, Marve, and Henry hasn't gotten things done. The Boilers might actually be happy they're on the road this week after the stands at Ross-Ade stadium were mostly empty last Saturday.

Iowa has lost three straight in disheartening fashion after a promising 2-0 start in league play. The Hawkeyes still have a chance to get to a bowl but must win here and then upset either Michigan on the road or Nebraska at home - so chances are pretty slim. The Hawkeyes' loss last week slipped them below .500 for the first time since 2007. Despite a 14-0 start at Indiana in the first seven minutes, the Hawkeyes managed just seven points the rest of the way in the 21-24 loss. QB Vandenberg continued to struggle with just one touchdown and a bad interception in the end-zone. The defense also allowed over 400 yards passing with three touchdowns.

Recent history: Iowa is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Iowa has also won six straight meetings at home and is 4-2 ATS in those games. The Hawks won 31-21 at Purdue last season. QB Vandenberg tossed three touchdowns and Iowa tallied 135 rush yards.

Trends: Purdue is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Boilermakers are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Iowa is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. The Hawkeyes are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

Injury report: Iowa likely will be without RB Mark Weisman for the second straight game Saturday against Purdue. Purdue WR O.J. Ross likely will play this week against Illinois while RB Raheem Mostert and DT Brandon Taylor are doubtful.

Ohio State - BYE
OSU: Last week vs. Illinois: W 52-22

OSU has won ten straight, who get a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois last week. Ohio State is 10-0 for the first time since 2007 as it chases its first perfect season since 2002, when it captured a national title. Ohio State has scored 52 points or more in three Big Ten games. QB Miller and RB Hyde form the Big Ten's most dangerous backfield and the defense continues to make big plays.

Michigan State - BYE
MSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 24-28

The Spartans suffered another devastating setback Saturday after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. RB Bell had another big day with 188 yards and two scores, but QB Andrew Maxwell had another rough day (9-of-27 passing). Msu still needs another win to become bowl eligible.

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ACC Report - Week 11

November 9, 2012

It's Week 11, and thankfully I was able to get back on track with my ACC plays. I sat in chilly conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium with my Clemson buddy Matt, watching the Tigers offense move the ball up and down the field. It was also my guaranteed play of the weekend, so even though I was clad in my Duke blue, I can't say I was terribly disappointed.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/3/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 20-12-0 ( 62.5% , +675)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1 Won (+ 200)
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4 Lost (- 445)
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - Notre Dame at Boston College (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

In future years when Notre Dame joins the ACC for all sports except for football, this game would count against their five-team requirement for the football schedule. Over the years, BC has been a thorn in the side of the Irish. When things have been good, average or bad in the past, the Eagles have really stepped up against the gold-domers. It might officially be considered their bowl game this season, especially since they were eliminated from bowl contention with a loss last week. An upset this time around would send shockwaves throughout the college football world. Notre Dame is just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games in the month of November. BC has not been much better, though, going 5-13 ATS in their past 18 home games, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall. In addition, the dog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but the road team is also 7-2 ATS in the span. So it might be a good idea to shy away from the spread. All signs appear to point to the under for the total. The under is 6-1-1 in ND's past eight road games, and 13-3 in their past 16 against the ACC. The under is 5-1 in BC's past six against Independents, 11-4 in their past 15 home games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 overall. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time.

Saturday - Maryland at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

This game has the potential to be a real beatdown, as no one except for Florida State has been able to slow the Clemson offense. The Terps are just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games overall, and a dismal 2-9 ATS in their past 11 ACC contests. In addition, they are 0-5 ATS in the month of November, including a loss last week against Ga. Tech. Clemson, meanwhile, has covered six straight games, and they are 5-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a losing record. In this series, though, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Clemson. However, that can mostly be thrown out the window, because those Maryland squads weren't likely using a linebacker at the quarterback position after losing their first three signal callers to season-ending injuries. Like the ND-BC game above, the under might be the play. The under is 5-0 in five straight meetings in this series at Clemson, and 10-2 in the past 12 meetings overall.

Saturday - Wake Forest at North Carolina State (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

North Carolina State was embarrassed last weekend against ACC doormat Virginia at home, leading some Wolfpack faithful to howl for the dismissal of head coach Tom O'Brien. A loss this weekend, and it might punch his ticket to the unemployment line. Both of these teams come in searching for their sixth win of the season, so someone is going to finish the day eligible for one of the ACC's bowl bids. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, but just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record. N.C. State is now just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. They've been a hard team to figure, as they were good enough to nip Florida State, but then lose to Virginia. The home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, but Wake is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. It might be a good idea to get your action elsewhere, or just flip a coin.

Saturday - Georgia Tech at North Carolina (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The Tar Heels have been on a roll, covering seven straight games at Kenan Stadium. They are also a solid 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. The Jackets haven't had a lot of success this season, going 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. They are also 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a bye week. The over has cashed in six of Ga. Tech's past seven games, and is 4-1 in their past five ACC games. The over is also 6-1 in UNC's past seven home games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. However, the under has cashed in four of the past five meetings between these sides in Chapel Hill.

Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Virginia (/ANCESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

The Hurricanes blow into Charlottesville looking to continue their solid play. They blasted Virginia Tech last Thursday night at home, covering for the sixth straight conference game. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. In addition, Miami is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, so they might be a very solid play in this one. Virginia stunned N.C. State on the road in Raleigh last week, piling up a huge lead and winning in surprising fashion. While Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the month of November, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 games on grass, and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. In addition, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games at Scott Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas A&M at Alabama

November 9, 2012

Since losing to LSU in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium last November, Alabama (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) had won 12 consecutive games by 17 points or more. In other words, Nick Saban’s team had not been in a 60-minute slugfest in a long time.

Well, the Crimson Tide got just that last Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Trailing 14-3 at intermission, LSU dominated the second half and bullied its way into the lead at crunch time.

Zach Mettenberger enjoyed his best game as a college football player, completing 24-of-35 throws for 298 yards and one touchdown without an interception. His 14-yard scoring strike to Jarvis Landry gave the Tigers a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter.

When Mettenberger connected with Odell Beckham for a 22-yard gain to Alabama’s 31 with 2:34 remaining, LSU appeared poised to pull off the upset. But Alabama had two timeouts left and used both of them after stuffing a pair of run plays, setting up a third-and-10 situation for LSU.

Although Les Miles had been aggressive all night long and his QB was in a great rhythm, he opted for the safe play. Jeremy Hill rushed for four yards to set up a 45-yard field goal. Drew Alleman’s attempt was off the mark, though, giving the Tide a chance to go 72 yards in 88 seconds.

LSU’s defense had given Alabama QB A.J. McCarron absolutely nothing in the second half, limiting him to one completion for zero yards. But the junior signal caller had different ideas for the biggest drive of his career.

It started with a quick throw to Kevin Norwood, who shook a tackler for first-down yardage and an 18-yard gainer. Most importantly, the clock stopped to move the chains.

Quickly on the ball, McCarron hit Norwood again on a deep out for 15 yards. This time, Norwood got out of bounds at LSU’s 39 with 1:11 remaining.

Now as long as Alabama avoided a sack, the clock wasn’t much of an issue. McCarron went to Norwood again on an out pattern for 11 yards to LSU’s 28. Again, Norwood got out of bounds.

At this point, it was time to get greedy. Forget a game-tying field-goal attempt to force overtime. McCarron smelled blood and was ready to go for the kill. He dropped back and looked to Norwood – again! – in the back of the end zone but the pass fell incomplete after Norwood and the defender went down due to incidental contact.

For the first four plays of the drive, LSU had sat back in coverage with just a four-man rush. On second and 10 with 51 ticks left, the Tigers decided to bring pressure. Unfortunately for them, Alabama had the perfect play called.

McCarron threw a screen pass to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon, who had blockers in front. This looked like trouble from the get-go and it was. Yeldon only needed to make one man miss (he did) before scampering to paydirt.

On LSU’s ensuing drive, it went three and out without getting the clock stopped once. Alabama had escaped with a 21-17 win, but LSU took the cash as an eight-point home underdog. The 38 combined points barely stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.

Now gamblers must determine where Alabama is at physically and emotionally after playing its toughest game of the season, one it was shooting for all year. The Tide better be ready for another barnburner because Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) is coming to Tuscaloosa with nothing to lose and one of college football’s premier weapons in redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel.

Most betting shops are listing Alabama as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56. Bettors can take the Aggies on the money line for a generous plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Kevin Sumlin’s squad has been the SEC’s biggest surprise, losing only to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19) in games it led for most of the first half. This is Texas A&M’s third road assignment in as many weeks, but the road has been good.

The Aggies smashed Mississippi St. by a 38-13 count last week and went into Auburn and emerged with a 63-21 victory two weeks ago. The 63-point eruption on The Plains was the most points an opponent had ever scored in the storied history of Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Manziel has produced video-game numbers all year. He leads the SEC in rushing with 922 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Manziel has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,527 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Texas A&M is tops in the SEC and fifth in America in scoring, averaging 44.7 points per game. With that sort of production, you know there are other key pieces in addition to the start signal caller.

Manziel has two of the SEC’s top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Ryan Swope. Evans has hauled in 56 receptions for 802 yards and two TDs, while Swope has 45 catches for 641 yards and five TDs.

RB Ben Malena has rushed for 637 yards and six TDs, averaging 6.6 YPC. Christine Michael has rushed for 381 yards and eight scores.

This offense will go up against a ‘Bama ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense (9.1 PPG).

McCarron still hasn’t thrown an interception this year and has 19 TD passes.

As a home favorite on Saban’s watch, Alabama has posted a 17-18 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 3-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Alabama has seen its totals go 4-4-1 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in its home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 10
It’s a very interesting week for Sharps, who took a hit along with many sportsbooks when NFL underdogs had a rare bad Sunday. Starting with tonight’s Indianapolis-Jacksonville game on the NFL Network, Sharps will have to decide if they want to keep fading public favorites at a time when the list of BAD teams keeps growing longer and longer.

Let’s run through the full NFL card and see how Sharps are betting this weekend. There’s an interesting mix of challenges from games in the 4-6 pointspread range, and some teaser spots that were created by big line moves.

Note that Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Washington all have byes this week. This is the next to last week for byes. Games are presented in rotation order.

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE:
Vegas opened this game at Colts -3, which is already a big move in the series because they were three point favorites at home earlier this season. So, the market made a six point adjustment once you factor in the site. That kept Sharps from getting involved aggressively. The public, after hearing all week about how great Andrew Luck has been, and after seeing stories about how the players shaved their heads in solidarity with ailing head coach Chuck Pagano, has hit the Colts hard enough to move the line to Indy -3.5 as we go to press.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND:
Sharps hit the double digit dog out of the gate, as an opener of New England -12 was bet down to -11. You regulars know that there are some old school Sharps who play every double digit dog on principle. They moved, as did some others. There wasn’t enough support to drive the line all the way to the key number of ten though, as Buffalo got hammered by the Pats 6 weeks ago on their home field, and looked lethargic last week, while NE comes in off a bye.

NY GIANTS at CINCINNATI:
Games last week in the price range of 4-7 gave sportsbooks and many Sharps migraines. Those groups generally root for underdogs, while Squares find the favorites affordably cheap. This is our first game this week in that range, and Sharps aren’t shying away from the underdog. Cincinnati opened at +6, but has been bet down to +4.5. If last week is any indication, the public will be on the Giants on game day, just like they were on Denver in this city a week ago. Another Manning!

SAN DIEGO at TAMPA BAY:
Tampa Bay opened at -2.5, which is right under the key number. That tells you that oddsmakers believed Sharps were going to like the dog with the added preparation time off a Thursday game. Sharps jumped on the Bucs instead and drove the line to a full field goal. Tampa Bay has been the better team in recent weeks, and many Sharps told us they couldn’t believe the game opened below three. They bet the value immediately. Note that we’ll only be mentioning Over/Unders today in games that have shown Sharp tendencies. None yet to this point on the card.

DENVER at CAROLINA:
Another game between the three and seven for a road favorite, and another game where Sharps didn’t shy away from the dog. Denver opened at -5.5. We’re now seeing lines between -3.5 and -4 for the Broncos. This is the second straight road favorite spot for the Broncos outside of their time zone, and Carolina has been playing better of late after a slow start. Some Sharps like this situational home dog quite a bit, particularly since the NFC has fared well in interconference play this year.

TENNESSEE at MIAMI:
Miami opened at -6.5, Sharps played the dog rather tentatively, with the line dropping down to Miami -6. Sharps have mostly been fond of Miami this year, and they don’t like Tennessee’s defense. Oddsmakers pretty much nailed Sharp sentiment here in a game that may have seen a line near a field goal a month ago.

OAKLAND at BALTIMORE:
Our first game in the teaser window this week, with Baltimore opening at -7.5. Should the line stay there on game day, the Ravens will be a popular choice in two-team teasers for Sharps and Squares alike, moving the number down past the 7 and the 3 to -1.5. You may see some stores lift Baltimore to -9 to discourage that, given the tendency for the public to bet favorites and to fade West Coast travelers in early starts. The total has dropped from 47 to 46, which may be an early sign of weather issues because Oakland’s defense has struggled on the road.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS:
This time we have a home dog in the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -1.5 and is now sitting at -2. That means basic strategy would push the dog up past +3 and +7 in two-team teasers. There are some Sharps who have Atlanta -1.5 already, but who will also be on New Orleans in teasers this Sunday hoping the game lands in that vast window. Sharps who like Atlanta believe they match up well against the poor New Orleans defense.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA:
We have a huge Sharp move here on the Lions, as they opened at +2.5 (+3 in some of the earliest spots) on the road here but have been bet all the way to a 1-point favorite (-2 in spots). You don’t normally see that in the NFL unless there’s an injury involved. Here, it looks to be a matter of oddsmakers not adjusting their Power Ratings quickly enough. Detroit has been playing better ball lately, while Minnesota has struggled badly against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Oddsmakers saw the two teams as close to even. Sharps believe Detroit is the clearly superior side right now. This line move does stick Minnesota in the basic strategy teaser range at +1.5, +2, or if the line moves further to +2.5. The total is up from 45.5 to 46.5 or 47 on strong Over sentiment from the math guys.

NY JETS at SEATTLE:
Seattle opened at -6, which is a line few would have imagined back when the season started. Sharps bet the favorite anyway, moving it up to -6.5. This goes against what we’ve been seeing in this price range this week, which is meaningful. Jets money would come in only if the line goes all the way to seven. Basically, those who think Mark Sanchez will be overmatched on the road by a strong NFC defense bet the Seahawks early. Those who prefer the “defensive dog” position of the Jets are waiting to see if they can get +7 over the weekend.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA:
We have another flip flop of favorites. Philadelphia opened at -1.5. They’ve been playing so badly of late that Sharps hit Dallas hard enough to make the Cowboys the favorite at that price. Both teams have issues right now. Sharps believe the dark cloud hanging over Philadelphia is gloomier at the moment. Will those clouds mess up teaser plays? Philadelphia has moved into the teaser window because of pessimism about the team.

ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO:
This is a West Coast version of Buffalo/New England, where the Super Bowl contending favorite opened at -12 against an overmatched divisional foe. Some Sharps hit the dog lightly (particularly the old school guys), so we’re now seeing San Francisco -11.5 or -11 in most places.

HOUSTON at CHICAGO:
The big move here was on the total. As an opener of 44 has been bet down to 41.5. Some of that is weather potential, but a lot of it is simply a matchup of great defenses on a field where it can be hard for offenses to move the ball consistently. Houston’s been playing conservatively on offense this season, and much of Chicago’s scoring is a result of cheap points against bad teams. Frankly, a very bad total from oddsmakers that got spanked quickly. Chicago opened at -1. If the line moves up, that will put Houston in the teaser window in a defensive struggle. Should oddsmakers move Chicago all the way to -3 on game day because of public support for the hosts, then Sharps would come in very strong on Houston +3. Tricky spot for sportsbooks in a game that will have a huge handle as a prime time showdown of Super Bowl hopefuls.

KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH:
Not much betting interest in this one at all. It’s worth nothing that Pittsburgh opened at -12.5 and there WASN’T a move toward the double digit dog. Kansas City’s been playing so badly that Sharps won’t invest even at this price. They might at +13 or +14 on game day if Squares hit the TV favorite.

That wraps up this week’s look at what the Sharps are betting in the NFL, as always, Good Luck Den!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 10 Preview: Cowboys at Eagles

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-5)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 44.5

NFC East foes desperate for a victory clash on Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Eagles.

Both these teams are fighting for NFC East survival, as Philadelphia has lost four straight games and Dallas has dropped four of five. Philly swept the Cowboys a year ago, including a convincing 20-7 win in Big D on Christmas Eve. Dallas also managed just seven points in its previous matchups with the Eagles a year ago. QB Tony Romo was just 18-for-35 for 203 yards in the first game, then was injured in the first quarter of their second matchup. Eagles QB Michael Vick has torched Dallas since joining the Eagles, posting a 109.7 passer rating (6 TD and 2 INT) in three starts against them.

Which team will come away with the much-needed win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Romo suffered a back strain on the last play of the Week 9 loss to Atlanta, but is expected to start on Sunday. He has thrown for 299.3 yards per game this season, but has just 10 TD and 13 INT. In his past 10 games versus the Eagles, he has a mediocre 5-5 record, 2,240 passing yards, 13 TD and 11 INT. With top RB DeMarco Murray (foot) still out, the Cowboys have all but given up trying to run the football. They have failed to surpass 85 rushing yards in six of the past seven contests, attempting just 35 carries (for 84 yards, 2.4 YPC) in the past two weeks combined. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has stopped opposing air attacks very well, allowing just 206 passing YPG (5th in NFL). The Cowboys are a mediocre 15th in rushing defense (107 YPG), but have held each of their past six opponents to less than 125 yards on the ground.

Vick was sacked seven times in last week's 28-13 loss in New Orleans, and the offensive line doesn't expect to improve anytime soon with RT Todd Herremans placed on IR after suffering a dislocated bone in his foot. He joins LT Jason Peters (Achilles) and C Jason Kelce (knee) on the sidelines, plus RG Danny Watkins (ankle) might not play on Sunday either. RB LeSean McCoy has been slowed by an illness, but he expects to start on Sunday. The last time Dallas visited Lincoln Financial Field, McCoy rushed for 185 yards on 30 carries (6.2 YPC) and 2 TD. On the defensive side of the ball, Philly has allowed 135+ rushing yards in each of its past four games, and has forced just four turnovers in the past six contests combined.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 10 Preview: Broncos at Panthers

DENVER BRONCOS (5-3)

at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -4, Total: 47

Sizzling-hot Denver tries to extend its winning streak when it pays a visit to Carolina on Sunday afternoon.

The Broncos have won three in a row overall and two straight on the road, SU and ATS. QB Peyton Manning has looked like the Peyton of old over the past five games, completing 76% of his passes for 316 YPG, including 15 TD and just 3 INT during that span. The Panthers’ season was going down the toilet before an upset win in Washington last week. Their porous defense had its best effort since Week 1, holding the Redskins to 337 yards of offense and 13 points. QB Cam Newton managed the game well, but was underwhelming again, completing 13-for-23 throws for 201 yards— but no turnovers—against Washington’s league-worst secondary.

Can the Broncos pull out another impressive victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning hasn't faced the Panthers since 2007, but his numbers against them in two starts are pretty pedestrian for his standards: 57.8% completions, 548 passing yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. For the first time since 2004, Manning has tossed 3 TD in five straight games, helping him to take the NFL lead in both passer rating (108.6) and completion percentage (69.5%). Manning has quickly built a great rapport with both of his starting receivers, Eric Decker and a Demaryius Thomas. Decker has 7 TD grabs in his past five games while Thomas has 95 receiving YPG for the season, good for 4th-most in the NFL. Decker has been bothered by a thigh injury, but he is expected to start on Sunday. While Denver's passing attack is in great shape, the ground game has been inconsistent, ranking 18th in the league with 107 rushing YPG. In the past three road games, the Broncos have managed just 65 rushing YPG on 2.9 yards per carry. Fumbling has been a huge problem for Denver, as it has lost 10 fumbles already -- K.C. is the only NFL team with more (15). Defensively, the Broncos rank in the top half of the NFL in both passing defense (221 YPG, 10th in league) and rushing defense (104 YPG, 12th in NFL). They have forced 12 turnovers this year, but half of those came three weeks ago in San Diego when Philip Rivers had six miscues.

Newton has not thrown the football well during his team's three-game home losing streak, completing just 51% of his passes for 616 yards (6.4 YPA), 1 TD and 4 INT. It would help if he had the kind of running game the Panthers showed off last season, when they ranked third in the NFL with 151 rushing YPG. This year, they have just 116 rushing YPG (12th in league), as the team tinkers with the workload of both DeAngelo Williams (3.7 YPC) and Jonathan Stewart (3.8 YPC). The return of No. 2 WR Brandon LaFell, who sat out last week's game with a concussion, will surely take attention away from top wideout Steve Smith and give Newton another reliable target. The defense is making strides, especially in terms of pressuring the quarterback, tallying 10 sacks in the past two games. The Panthers also have seven takeaways in the past four games, something they will need to do more of against a turnover-prone Broncos club.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 10 Preview: Falcons at Saints

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-0)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 53.5

The Falcons are not only trying to keep their unblemished record intact on Sunday in New Orleans, but they are also seeking revenge from the Saints recent dominance in this series.

The Falcons are looking to snap a four-game losing streak against the Saints. Their last trip to New Orleans was particularly ugly, with Drew Brees and the offense hanging 45 points on Atlanta in a 45-16 Saints victory. The unbeaten Falcons have a different look this year, with a much more wide-open offense and new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s unique looks on defense. The Saints had struggled to contain anyone all season until the Eagles came to town with their decimated offensive line on Monday night. The Atlanta offense poses a much bigger challenge with the team’s many weapons.

Can the Falcons stay unbeaten with a road win at rival New Orleans? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Atlanta has a great passing offense (278 YPG, 8th in the NFL), and will certainly try to throw the football all over New Orleans' secondary allowing 295 passing YPG (4th-most in NFL). QB Matt Ryan is just 2-5 in his career versus New Orleans, but he attempted 52 passes in both meetings last year, racking up 724 yards and 3 TD. He has frequently targeted all three of his great receivers -- WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez -- but he may look at White just a little more than usual. In five career games in New Orleans, White has 578 receiving yards (116 per game) and three scores. Jones also had a great game at the Superdome as a rookie last year, catching eight passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons don't have to be one-dimensional though, because the Saints have an even more generous rushing defense, allowing a league-high 177 rushing YPG. This is great news for Michael Turner, who had just 11 carries in last year's lopsided loss in New Orleans. A closer game should allow him to post numbers similar to what he did in 2009 and 2010 at the Superdome when he carried the ball 50 times for 265 yards (5.3 YPC) and 2 TD in those two games. There are no significant injuries to the Falcons offense, but three key defensive players are all questionable in LB Sean Weatherspoon (ankle), S Charles Mitchell (calf) and DT Peria Jerry (knee).

Brees leads the NFL with 2,549 passing yards (319 per game) and only Aaron Rodgers has surpassed his 22 TD. Brees continues to lean heavily on his top two receivers, WR Marques Colston (626 rec yds, 6 TD) and TE Jimmy Graham (387 rec yds, 5 TD). Both have had plenty of success against Atlanta's secondary, which currently ranks 14th in the NFL with 229 passing YPG allowed. Colston had 15 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown in last year's series, while Graham has found the end zone in all three career meetings with the Falcons, totaling 150 receiving yards. The Saints have the third-worst rushing offense in the league (81 YPG), but they could find some holes in Atlanta's 24th-ranked rushing defense (128 YPG). RB Darren Sproles (foot) will not play, but Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory combined for 136 rushing yards on 23 carries (5.9 YPC) in last week's win over Philadelphia. Before committing two turnovers against the Eagles, New Orleans had just four giveaways over its previous five games. The Falcons have not forced a turnover in two straight games, so ball protection shouldn't be a big issue in this game.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 10 Preview: Texans at Bears

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-1)

at CHICAGO BEARS (7-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 41

A pair of one-loss teams collide on Sunday night when Houston visits Chicago.

This matchup will pit two of the NFL’s elite defenses, a Texans team that hasn’t lost SU on the road, and a Bears team that’s unbeaten SU at home. Chicago continues to forcean incredible number of turnovers -- 28 takeaways through eight games -- including five more in Tennessee last week. Houston, which runs a conservative, run-heavy offense, has just six giveaways on the season. The Texans have been outstanding defensively this year, allowing 20 points or more than 325 yards of offense in a game just twice.

Which team will improve to 8-1 on the season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Texans RB Arian Foster continues to carry his offense with 770 rushing yards (5th in NFL) and a league-high 11 total touchdowns. Houston's 138 rushing YPG ranks eighth in the league, but backup RB Ben Tate (hamstring) might not play. TE Owen Daniels (back) and WR Kevin Walter (groin) are also listed as questionable, but both are expected to play and help out QB Matt Schaub. The Houston signal caller has been locked in all year, posting a 96.8 passer rating with 1,918 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 12 TD and just four interceptions. But after absorbing just three sacks over the first five games, Schaub has been dropped seven times in the past three contests. His top wideout Andre Johnson has been outstanding over the past three weeks with 25 catches for 279 yards, but he has a tough matchup against CB Charles Tillman on Sunday. Defensively, the Texans have been outstanding against both the run (82 YPG, 2nd in NFL) and pass (204 YPG, 4th in league). They have not allowed a single rushing touchdown all season, and DE J.J. Watt has been unbelievable with 10.5 sacks and 10 passes defensed.

The Bears are looking for a seventh straight win for the first time since 2006, but only one of their victories so far has come against a team with a winning record. The league-high 28 takeaways and seven defensive touchdowns have aided the Bears in giving up just 15.0 PPG (2nd in NFL). They also have 25 defensive sacks (3rd in league), but the offense has allowed 28 sacks (3rd-most in NFL). Despite hitting the turf so often, QB Jay Cutler has played very well in his past five games, throwing for 1,132 yards (226 per game), 9 TD and 2 INT. But he has been very reliant on just one man, WR Brandon Marshall, who has 59 of the team's 149 catches (41%) and 797 of Chicago's 1,774 passing yards (45%). Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has said his club will double-team Marshall on every single play. If that happens, the Bears should be able run the football with Matt Forte, who has 376 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC in his past four games. He's also a capable receiver with 20 catches for 179 yards this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 10 Preview: Chiefs at Steelers

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-7)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -12, Total: 42

The surging Steelers seek a fourth straight victory on Monday night when they host a Chiefs team that has dropped five in a row.

At this point, the Chiefs are just looking to not get embarrassed. They turned it over four more times in their 31-13 loss at San Diego last Thursday night, giving them 29 giveaways on the season. QB Matt Cassel, who will start in place of injured Brady Quinn (concussion), has committed 18 turnovers in his seven games. The Steelers have dominated their last three opponents offensively, two of them among the league’s most high-powered teams (Washington and New York Giants). They’ve allowed 207 total YPG during their three-game winning streak. Offensively, they’ve been excellent on third downs all season, converting a league-leading 51.3%.

Can the Steelers cover the huge number on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Chiefs have not held a single lead during regulation this year, as their lone win came in overtime. They haven't surpassed 20 points in any of their past five games, scoring just 65 points (13.0 PPG) over this stretch. They have also failed to gain 300 yards in any of their past three contests. Cassel has a dreadful 68.9 passer rating this year, throwing for 6 TD and 11 INT. But he did have a strong game against the Steelers the only time he's faced them wearing a Chiefs uniform, completing 15-of-30 passes for 248 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in 2009. But for Kansas City to have any shot at winning this, RB Jamaal Charles will need a huge workload. In Week 5 against another AFC North team, Baltimore, he carried the ball 31 times for 140 yards. But in three games since, he has just 29 attempts combined for 83 yards (2.9 YPC). Head coach Romeo Crennel shed his defensive coordinator role earlier this week, leaving Gary Gibbs in charge of the league's third-worst scoring defense (30.0 PPG). The Chiefs are actually above average in passing defense (222 YPG, ranked 11th), but have surrendered 126 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL). In addition to Crennel leaving his DC post, Kansas City also parted ways with CB Stanford Routt, waiving him just eight games after signing him to a 3-year, $18M deal. He will be replaced by Javier Arenas, who has been upgraded to probable despite a head injury. The news isn't so good for DE Glenn Dorsey (calf), who is doubtful for Monday night.

The Steelers are riding high after erasing a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit in last week's 24-20 win over the Giants. Pittsburgh remained the NFL's top defense (263 total YPG) by allowing minus-9 yards in fourth quarter, a time when New York QB Eli Manning usually takes over. Great second-half defense is nothing new for the Steelers, who have given up just 5.0 PPG after halftime during their three-game win surge. On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers have been winning with a surprising running game that has averaged 155 YPG in the past three games, more than doubling the 75 rushing YPG from their first five contests. Isaac Redman rumbled for 147 yards on 26 carries (5.7 YPC) last week with both Jonathan Dwyer (quad) and Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) out. Pittsburgh expects all three backs to play on Monday, and head coach Mike Tomlin says that he'll simply use whichever rusher is most effective. Although QB Ben Roethlisberger won't have the services of starting WR Antonio Brown (ankle), he should still find success through the air. He has thrown for 2,203 yards (7.4 YPA), 16 TD and 4 INT so far this season. Although he was held to 193 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in last year's 13-9 win in K.C., he has been unstoppable at Heinz Field. In his past 16 home games, Roethlisberger has tossed 31 TD and just 6 INT (104.6 passer rating).

[StarDust Bum]

Week 10 Tips

November 10, 2012

It was a week to forget for the sportsbooks last Sunday as the favorites cleaned up in the NFL. Will things change in Week 10 with the underdogs coming back to life? So far, the Colts rolled the hapless Jaguars on Thursday night, but there are 12 opportunities for the 'dogs to rebound on Sunday, as we'll take a look at the chances of home teams receiving points.

Giants (-3 ½, 49) at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati gets its second dose of a Manning brother in two weeks after Peyton beat the Bengals last Sunday, 31-23 to cash as five-point road 'chalk.' Now, the Bengals get to deal with last season's Super Bowl champs with Eli in town, after the Giants squandered a 20-10 fourth quarter lead in a 24-20 home defeat to the Steelers as 3 ½-point favorites.

New York hasn't lost consecutive games all seasons, but Tom Coughlin's club owns a 1-4 ATS record when laying at least 3 ½ points. The Giants have allowed at least 23 points in each of the last three contests, while the 'over' hit just once in that span in the shootout victory at Dallas in Week 8. New York has put together a solid 5-2 ATS record against the AFC on the road since 2008, but the G-Men were listed as a favorite just twice in that span.

The Bengals failed to step up against playoff-caliber competition last season, in spite of qualifying for the postseason. The same story is arising for Cincinnati in 2012 after falling at home to the Steelers and Broncos, but the Bengals have also mixed in losses this season to the Browns and Dolphins. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have cashed 11 of the last 17 times in the role of a home underdog.

Broncos (-4, 47) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

Carolina finally found a way to close last Sunday, as the Panthers beat the Redskins, 21-13 as three-point road 'dogs. The 'Cats return home, looking for their first victory at Bank of America Stadium since a Week 2 triumph over New Orleans. The task won't be easy for Cam Newton's Panthers, facing a Broncos' team that is on fire with three consecutive victories.

Since falling behind 24-0 at San Diego in Week 6, the Broncos have outscored their opponents, 100-37 in the last 10 quarters, while cashing in each of the last three contests. Peyton Manning threw two interceptions at Cincinnati last week, but the former MVP is getting back to that status by throwing three touchdown passes in each of the last games. Denver is riding a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a favorite this season, while Manning owns a 9-3 ATS record as road 'chalk' since 2009.

For the exception of a Week 3 blowout loss to the Giants, the Panthers have hung around every week, but have had problems finishing off victories. Before beating Washington, Ron Rivera's squad dropped four straight games by five points or less, including two home losses when holding the lead in the second half against Seattle and Dallas.

Falcons (-2 ½, 53 ½) at Saints - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta remains as the league's lone unbeaten team at 8-0, but the quest for win number nine will be tough heading to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome against the rival Saints. The Falcons survived another scare last Sunday night by holding off the Cowboys at home, 19-13, while managing to make their backers happy with a late field goal to cash as four-point favorites.

The task won't be easy for Mike Smith's club, who has lost five of the last six meetings in New Orleans. The only victory came in overtime in 2010, a 27-24 triumph as three-point underdogs, a catalyst to a 13-3 season and a top seed in the NFC. Atlanta's defense has stepped up this season, limiting five of the last six opponents to 20 points or less, while cashing the 'under' in five of the previous seven contests.

The Saints have struggled from a defensive standpoint all season, allowing 471 yards per game, which ranks dead-last in the league. After losing their first two games at home to the Redskins and Chiefs, New Orleans has rebounded nicely with victories over San Diego and Philadelphia, including a 28-13 rout of the Eagles on Monday. The Saints are listed as a home 'dog for the first time since the final week of the 2008 season when New Orleans lost to Carolina, 33-31.

Lions (-2 ½, 46 ½) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST

The last time these two teams met in Week 4, Minnesota scored a pair of touchdowns on special teams and knocked off Detroit, 20-13 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The scene shifts to Minneapolis this Sunday with these two NFC North rivals going in different directions.

Detroit has dug themselves out of a 1-3 hole to even its mark at 4-4 following back-to-back wins over Seattle and Jacksonville. The Lions scored 59 combined points in the last two weeks, after putting up 46 points in the three weeks prior. Jim Schwartz's club is the hottest ATS team recently by cashing in each of the last four games, but the Lions are just 2-4 ATS in his tenure when laying points away from Ford Field.

The Vikings have hit the skids after a 4-1 start by losing three of the last four games, including last week's 30-20 defeat at Seattle. Minnesota will likely be without one of its top weapons in Percy Harvin, who is listed as 'doubtful' with an ankle injury. In Minnesota's last three losses, the defense has been torched by allowing at least 30 points each time, resulting in three 'overs.'

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 10

November 10, 2012

Week 9 Recap

Betting the ‘chalk’ has been a goldmine for bettors lately and at the same time a nightmare for the sportsbooks. After watching the favorites go 10-4 last weekend, the public loaded up on the Colts this past Thursday and cashed another early holiday gift. One bookmaker, who hasn’t cried publicly with the results, told me that they’re (bettors) just holding our money for us and all things will balance out soon enough. I couldn’t agree with him more.

While sides have been a roller coaster this season, the totals have been as balanced as you can get. The ‘over/under’ went 7-7 last week and the ‘over’ holds a slight lead (67-64-1) on the season. Fortunately for the books, the primetime games have helped them a lot. Including Thursday’s outcome between the Colts and Jaguars (27-10), the ‘under’ has gone 20-9 (69%) in contests played under the lights this season.

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-1 last week with their early bets. Not much line movement on the afternoon games in Week 10, but both of the primetime affairs got hit and coincidentally they follow the trends that we talked about above. Also, weather is expected to be an issue this week as well.

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

Houston at Chicago: Lined opened at 44 and dropped to 39 1/2
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Line opened at 43 ½ and dropped to 42

Midseason Trends

Every team has played at least eight games, which is a great sample for total players to identify both ‘over’ and ‘under’ clubs. Whether or not those numbers balance out will be seen over the next two months.

(O/U records listed in parenthesis)

Easy-Over

New England (6-2) – The offense can score on anybody and the defense isn’t outstanding. The Pats have seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight.

Kansas City (6-2) – It’s surprising to see the ‘over’ connect at high percentage (75%) here, especially behind an offense that can’t move the ball.

Tampa Bay (6-2) – We’ve seen five straight ‘over’ tickets for the Bucs, who have put up 38, 28, 36 and 42 the last four weeks.

Tennessee (6-2) – Hard to play an ‘under’ with the Titans, who have allowed 30-plus points in seven of their nine games.

Under like Thunder

Arizona (7-2) – Solid defense and an inconsistent offense equals a great ‘under’ combination.

Indianapolis (7-2) – The defense hasn’t played anybody lately but that will change with the Patriots on deck in Week 11.

San Francisco (6-2) – Oddsmakers are starting to post totals in the high thirties for the 49ers, which should’ve been done sooner.

Rematches….

Last week we touched on this seasonal trend and we’re going to hit on it again. Through nine weeks, there have been four divisional rematches and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 (67%) in these games but if you watched last week’s Baltimore-Cleveland (25-15), you’d probably agree it should stand at 4-1. Anytime you get field goals (6) instead of touchdowns (3), you’re going to see ‘over’ bets get beat, which was the case. Also, the Colts beat the Jaguars 27-10 this past Thursday and that game certainly had a chance to go ‘over’ late as well. This angle could balance out, which wouldn’t be surprising, but there are two other pending matchups in Week 10 and the oddsmakers are expecting points.

Buffalo at New England: Gamblers are looking at a total of 52 and based on the past three meetings between this pair, this number is too low. The Patriots and Bills have combined for 65, 70 and 80 points, the latter coming in the first encounter this season. New England’s team total is sitting at 31 ½ points and it should be noted that it has scored 38, 34, 31, 49 and 52 points in the last five against the Bills. Assuming the Pats eclipse the 30-point plateau, you still need Buffalo to do its job and that’s not a given. In the last three road games, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points. New England is off its bye week and under head coach Bill Belichick, the team is 9-3. Why so successful? The answer is not the offense, rather the defense. The Pats have held 10 opponents to 17 or less during this span and the other two posted 20 and 21.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Vikings beat the Lions 20-13 on Sept. 30 at Ford Field and the combined 33 points fell way short of the closing total (48). Six weeks later, the total has dropped to 46 and you could be scratching your head. Minnesota has allowed 30 or more points in three of its last four games and two of the quarterbacks were rookies. Now you face the Lions attack that has a legit quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who’s helped his offense scored 28 and 31 points the last two weeks. Minnesota’s offense has taken some criticism lately, especially QB Christian Ponder. The heat is fitting but the Vikings have still managed to put up 20 or more points in eight of nine games. Despite the potential for fireworks at the Metrodome, seven of the last 10 in this series has gone ‘under’ the number. Also, Minnesota could be without its most explosive player in Percy Harvin, who is listed as ‘doubtful’ with an ankle injury.

Fearless Predictions

It’s been an up and down season for us and after nearly putting up a bagel (0-3-1) last week, we’re 10 cents ($10) in the red at the midway point. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Seattle-New York Jets 38 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 22 Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 Atlanta-New Orleans
Under 47 ½ Seattle-New York Jets
Under 49 Houston-Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10

November 9, 2012

All it took was one lousy performance on Monday night at New Orleans for the entire world to see, and the Philadelphia Eagles have quickly turned into the betting nation's least wanted team. Even though the Eagles had lost three straight games prior to their stinker in the Bayou, they were still slated to be 2 ½-point home favorites Sunday against the Cowboys, a team they swept in last year's regular season.
Once the game played out with Philly losing 28-13 -- the Eagles basically gave up, the game was reposted as a pick 'em, which was quite an extreme rating drop for a loss. But between large and small money, that line was still way off in the public's eyes as the sour Eagles taste was still lingering from Monday night, because as of Friday afternoon, the Dallas Cowboys had been bet to 2 ½-point road favorites.

So now we have somehow anointed the Cowboys as the model of consistency to rely on. We're all of sudden ready to trust the Cowboys because the Eagles have lost five of their past six games, as though the Cowboys losing four of their past five is any better, right?

While the Cowboys may have lost their past two games against the Giants (24-29) and Falcons (13-19) gaining more style points, the fact remains that these two teams are about the same. They're both terrible.

They're also both in the same boat with controversy. Quarterback Michael Vick's brother tweets that he should be traded. Sean Payton is rumored to be the next Cowboys coach and Jon Gruden is being talked as the 2013 Eagles coach.

This is probably the toughest game of the week to handicap because of all the drama mixed in with bad play, but a five-point swing against the Eagles after one loss suggests that all the value in this one is with the home team.

Here's a look at some of the other moves this week:

-- The Patriots are fresh off a bye and get to go through their annual ritual of beating up the Bills in Foxboro, but Bills money dropped the number from 12 to 11 ½. The Patriots have gone OVER the total in six straight games and the total has been bet from 51 ½ to 52 ½.

-- The Giants have covered 38 of their past 54 road games under Tom Coughlin, but the Bengals have been bet as home 'dogs here. The Giants opened as 6-point favorites and they're currently -4.

-- The Buccaneers have been on a roll offensively and the combination of the Chargers beating no one, despite being 4-4 like the Tampa, and playing in the eastern time zone caused the Bucs to go from 2 ½-point favorites to -3 (-120). The Bucs have also gone over the total in five straight games, but the total dropped from 48 to 47 ½.

-- The Broncos are just starting to catch fire and could possibly be the most bet team over the last three weeks in ticket counts. The Public loves them, and that love has been reciprocated as the Broncos have won and covered their past three games. The Broncos were bet up from 3 ½-point favorites to -4 and already are one of the most bet teams of the week by small money. The public doesn't really care who they play this week, but we'll give the Panthers a little credit here for their home game. Outside of the Week 3 home loss (7-36) to the Giants, they have played well while losing. They broke the funk last week at Washington (21-13), which could be the spark they needed, and probably most of all, the spark Cam Newton needed to gain his confidence back.

-- The Ravens have been bet up from -7 to -7 ½ for their home game against the Raiders. The Ravens covered the spread last week at Cleveland breaking a five-game non-cover streak, despite winning four of those games. Baltimore is a hard team to trust laying a touchdown.

-- The Saints beat the Falcons in both games last season and they've been in a groove lately. The Falcons have remained -2 ½ all week with good two-way action.

-- The Lions have won three out of the past four games and last week we finally saw them put away a team, beating the Jaguars 31-14. The Vikings won 20-13 at Detroit in Week 3, but have lost three of their past four games. The Lions opened as -2 ½-point road favorites and have been bet up to -3 (EVEN).

-- The Seahawks opened as 6 ½-point home favorites against the Jets, but despite being 4-0 ATS at home this season, Jets money has dropped the game to 6.

-- The 49ers opened -12 for their home game against the well rested Rams. The 49ers are currently -11.5 with a total that dropped from 39 to 38 ½.

-- The game of the week is Sunday night with two 7-1 teams squaring off. We have the No. 3 ranked defense of the Texans traveling to Chicago against the Bears No. 5 defense. The Bears opened up a low -1.5 and it has remained there. Because of possible rain and wind coming into play, the total has dropped from 42 to 40 ½.

-- As further evidence that Monday night isn't what it used to be, we have the awful Chiefs getting 12 ½-points at Pittsburgh. The game opened at -13 ½ on Sunday night. The total has dropped from 43 to 42.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 10

Denver at Carolina (4, 47)

Peyton Manning and the AFC West-leading Broncos hit the road seeking a fourth straight win against Cam Newton and the Panthers, who ended a five-game losing streak last week. Manning, the league's highest-rated passer, has thrown three touchdowns in five straight games after leading Denver to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Broncos are averaging 31.6 points over their last five contests and have outscored opponents 100-37 over the last 10 quarters. Denver has played over the total in six of its last seven road games.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3, 47)

Tampa Bay scored more than 22 points just once in its first four games, going 1-3 in the process. Following their bye week, the Buccaneers have won three of four contests, scoring 28 points in the loss while registering at least 36 in each victory. A big reason for the recent offensive outburst is the exceptional play of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and exploded for 251 yards off 25 carries with four TDs against Oakland last week. The Bucs have played over the total in their last five games.

Tennessee at Miami (-6, 44)

Titans QB Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30 and is expected to start. Team owner Bud Adams said his team was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" after the Titans were destroyed by the Bears last week and detailed that everyone on the roster was "on notice" following the loss. Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week, but rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill continues to impress and hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 pass attempts). The Dolphins have played under the total in their last four games overall.

Buffalo at New England (-12, 52.5)

Surprisingly, the Bills waged a gritty battle with AFC-leading Houston before falling 21-9 last week. After the dust settled, Buffalo was held without a touchdown for the third time in the past four games. Tom Brady and the Pats have revved things up, scoring 180 points in their last five games, including a 45-point outburst across the pond against the Rams prior to their bye week. New England has already beaten the Bills 52-28 this season and has now taken 17 of the last 18 meetings in the series. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Oakland at Baltimore (-9.5, 47)

The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, could be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and are questionable, leaving third-string RB Taiwan Jones at the top of the depth chart. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL. But more concerning is the fact that QB Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games. The Ravens are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (3.5, 49)

Eli Manning saw his streak of 25 consecutive 200-yard passing games end at Dallas on Oct. 28 and he followed that up by throwing for a season-low 125 yards in a loss to the Steelers last Sunday. The Bengals blew a 14-point lead to Denver last week for their fourth consecutive defeat - and third in a row at home. One reason for their skid is an increasingly one-dimensional offense and the failure of the running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to rush for 100 yards and has topped out at 69 yards during the four-game losing streak. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS during the slump.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1, 53.5)

New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game and their porous pass defense will have its hands full against QB Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history but has won five games this season by seven points or fewer. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Detroit at Minnesota (1, 46)

Detroit has won two straight and three of four since a 20-13 home loss to the Vikings on Sept. 30 left the team at 1-3 and mired in a three-game losing streak. Conversely, Minnesota has seen a promising 4-1 start unravel with three losses in its last four games, including back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay and Seattle in which the Vikings have surrendered a combined 76 points. Minnesota's offense continues to go sideways after Christian Ponder threw for only 63 yards and an interception in last week's 30-20 loss in Seattle. The Lions have covered in four consecutive games and the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests.

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6, 38.5)

Seattle’s home-field advantage is keeping it in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The Seahawks are 4-0 at CenturyLink Field, including tight wins over the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. After dropping two in a row on the road, Seattle came back to “The Link” last weekend and put together its best offensive performance of the campaign in a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Hurricane Sandy has left some Jets players and staffers without power for over a week, a significant distraction for the team during its bye week. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Dallas at Philadelphia (1, 44)

Michael Vick was sacked seven times as the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season, completing 39 of 60 passes with four TDs and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo strained his back on the final play of a loss to the Falcons last week, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest. The Cowboys have played under the total in seven of their last eight road games.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-11.5, 38.5)

The Rams hope the early return of Danny Amendola (clavicle) can spark their sputtering offense. It was feared he would miss the rest of the season but the gritty receiver intends on playing Sunday. San Francisco has won four of its last five games and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in any of the victories. Defensively, the Niners are allowing just 12.9 ppg - tops in the league. San Francisco has taken seven of the last eight meetings and is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Houston at Chicago (-1, 40)

The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. The Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.