The Bum's November's NFL Best Bets !

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Falcons at Saints: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1, 53.5)

The first half of the season has proven to represent a changing of the guard in the NFC South, but the surging New Orleans Saints will try to say something about that when they host the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons - the last remaining unbeaten team in the league - have solidified their status as the division front-runner, but the Saints are trying to work their way back into the playoff picture. New Orleans has won three of its past four games after starting the season with four straight losses.

Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and is just the 15th team to start 8-0 since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Saints have won 10 of the past 12 meetings against the Falcons, which is a big reason they've won the NFC South in two of the past three seasons and three of the past six. That includes a 45-16 blowout in the most recent contest on Dec. 26, 2011, in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing mark.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U 53.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-0): The Falcons have won five games this season by seven points or less, and they are 27-10 in games decided by one score during coach Mike Smith's tenure. The offense had its lowest-scoring output of the season in last week's 19-13 home win against Dallas, and Atlanta might need more with the defense getting a stern test from the Saints, especially with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon missing a second consecutive game with a sprained right ankle.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-5): New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game. The porous pass defense will have its hands full against quarterback Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints' offense has not been as prolific as in past years, and running back Darren Sproles is out at least four weeks after hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings in New Orleans.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Saints’ last 10 vs. NFC foes.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Atlanta is 29-0 when QB Matt Ryan starts and has a rating of 100 or higher, and the team is 15-0 when he has at least three touchdown passes.

2. Brees, who has a passing touchdown in an NFL-record 51 consecutive games, has passed for 300 yards in eight of 12 meetings vs. Atlanta since joining the
Saints.

3. Gonzalez needs one touchdown reception to become the first tight end and eighth player in history with 100.

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Cowboys at Eagles: What bettors need to know

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 44)

A pair of underachieving NFC East teams will meet in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite lofty expectations, the season is in jeopardy of slipping away for both clubs as they head into this crucial matchup. Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line bore the brunt of most of the criticism as Michael Vick was sacked seven times and the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.

Dallas certainly isn't dancing in the streets either as it fell short in its bid to unseat undefeated Atlanta last week en route to a 19-13 loss. Tony Romo rebounded from a brutal first half versus the New York Giants to complete 25 of 35 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown versus the Falcons. Romo strained his back on the final play, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Cowboys -1, O/U, 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-5): One can understand if LB DeMarcus Ware is licking his chops as he heads into Sunday's tilt. After New Orleans had its way with Vick, Dallas' sack leader will look to get his piece of the pie on national television. Ware has recorded nine sacks in his last three games versus Philadelphia. Tight end Jason Witten, who has recovered from his injured spleen, has 50 receptions for 462 yards in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-5): Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season. The electric quarterback completed 39 of 60 passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Vick received some bad news as right tackle Todd Herremans suffered a tendon strain to his foot against the Saints. Herremans was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, thus forcing the switch of King Dunlap to right tackle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight road games.
* Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles’ last eight vs. NFC East foes.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has been sidelined with a sprained left foot since Oct. 14, but did some light rehab work in practice on Wednesday. Murray is not expected to play versus the Eagles.

2. Turnovers have been critical to the shortcomings of both clubs. Dallas is a horrid minus-11 while Philadelphia is minus-9 in that department.

3. Coach Andy Reid boasts a 17-10 mark versus Dallas, while Jason Garrett has dropped three of his four contests against Philadelphia.

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NFL weather watch: Rain, high winds expected in Chicago

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 10 of the NFL season:

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 49)

Site: Paul Brown Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with sunny skies. However, winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44.5)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the east at 16 mph.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 47)

Site: Raymond James Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the east at 12 mph.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the south.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the WSW at 21 mph.
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Texans at Bears: What bettors need to know

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5)

A potential Super Bowl preview will take center stage Sunday night when the Houston Texans take the best record in the AFC into Soldier Field to face the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. Houston rebounded nicely from its lone loss against Green Bay, pounding Baltimore before its bye week and coming back from the week off to beat Buffalo last week. The Texans rank second in the league in scoring offense (29.6) and fourth in scoring defense (17.1).

Houston's balance on both sides of the ball does not create a mismatch for the Bears, though. Chicago ranks third in scoring offense (29.5) and second in scoring defense (15.0). The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss also came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. The Texans have won both previous meetings - 31-24 at home in 2008 and 24-5 in Chicago in 2004.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Bears -1, O/U 39.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the south at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (7-1): Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. Quarterback Matt Schaub is likely to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit, though, because the Bears rank sixth in the league against the run. Schaub is 11-1 with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in his past 12 games.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-1): Chicago has gone as its quarterback and defense go, which so far has been stellar. Jay Cutler has faced his ups and downs, but he has developed a strong rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall, who leads the NFC with 797 receiving yards on 59 catches. The defense has helped the offense too, not only by forcing so many turnovers but also by turning them into touchdowns. Chicago has taken seven interceptions back for touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five road games.
* Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Schaub needs 146 passing yards to reach 20,000 in his career.

2. Including playoff games, Cutler's teams are 26-0 when he has a rating of 100 or higher.

3. Houston RB Arian Foster has scored at least one touchdown in 10 consecutive games and has topped 10 rushing scores for the third consecutive season.

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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

This clash between two high-powered offenses opened as a pick’em, with the line gradually moving throughout the week because of money on the undefeated Falcons.

“We are long on Falcons, but not as big of a decision as you may expect,” Perry told Covers. “63 percent of the money coming in is on Atlanta.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: +2

These two underachieving teams are both desperate for a win to keep their respective playoff hopes alive and this contest is the biggest mover of the week at Perry’s book.

"This one seems to be the favorite week 10 NFL play for wiseguys,” said Perry. “As the line has moved 4 points (from Philly -1.5 to Dallas -2.5). Also, it’s one of the favorite plays for the betting public, as 86 percent of the cash is on the Cowboys.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -1, Move: +2.5

This line was looking pretty stable all week, until news of an injury broke.

“The money was about 80/20 in favor of the Lions before it was announced Percy Harvin wont play,” Perry said. “Now, it is at 91 percent on Detroit.”

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears – Total Open: 43, Move: 40

This clash between two stout defenses has attracted major attention to the total. Add some nasty weather that’s expected in Chicago on Sunday to the mix and this total is on the move.

“Sharps seem to like the under for the Sunday night game,” said Perry. “We opened the total at 42.5, and it has dipped 3 points since.”

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Sunday, November 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -3.5 500
Carolina - Over 47 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -3 500
Tampa Bay - Over 47 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Miami -7 500
Miami - Under 44.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +13.5 500 ( SHOCKER )
New England - Under 53.5 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -9.5 500
Baltimore - Under 48 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -4.5 500
Cincinnati - Under 47.5 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -1 500 ( POD )
New Orleans - Over 53 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3 500 ( NFL CENTRAL DOG )
Minnesota - Under 45.5 500

Will be back with later games GOOD LUCK !
New Orleans - Over 53 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3 500 ( NFL CENTRAL DOG )
Minnesota - Under 45.5 500

Will be back with later games GOOD LUCK !

[StarDust Bum]

Late Afternoon Games:


N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Jets +5.5 500
Seattle - Under 38.5 500

Dallas - 4:25 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Philadelphia - Over 44 500

St. Louis - 4:25 PM ET St. Louis +13 500
San Francisco - Under 38 500

Houston - 8:20 PM ET Chicago -1 500
Chicago - Over 38.5 500

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NFL

Monday, November 12

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Tale of the tape: Chiefs at Steelers
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Offense

Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs committed four turnovers in their most recent loss to San Diego to boost their league-worst total to 29. Matt Cassel will make his second straight start at QB since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.

Steelers WR Antonio Brown has officially been ruled out for Monday night’s contest with an ankle injury he sustained in Week 9’s win over the Giants. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) is questionable, so Isaac Redman, who rushed for a career-high 147 yards last week, would potentially start in his place. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six QBs with a passer rating above 100.

Edge: Steelers


Defense

Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason. The Chiefs' stop unit is allowing 126 yards on the ground per game and will be in tough against the Steelers’ versatile running attack.

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl S Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. The Steelers will also be without T Marcus Gilbert (ankle) and LB Stevenson Sylvester (hamstring).

Edge: Steelers


Special teams

Kansas City averages 22.2 yards per kick return (22nd) and 10.7 yards per punt return (9th), but has yet to return a kick or punt for a TD this season.

Pittsburgh averages 28 yards per kick return (4th) and 10.2 yards per punt return (11th), but will be without primary return specialist Antonio Brown for this one. The Steelers also have one of the most reliable kickers in the league, Shaun Suisham, who has converted 17 of his 18 FG attempts this season.

Edge: Steelers


Word on the street

"I have to impart on them the importance of protecting the ball for this team and sometimes to get that done, you basically have to threaten them. If you fumble it, I'm going to take you out of the game. And they will get the message." --Romeo Crennel on his plan to bench anyone who fumbles or throws a pick Monday night.

"Whoever's being productive when healthy is going to get the totes. I really think it's that simple. I'm not going to make it any more complex than it has to be." --Steelers coach Mike Tomlin on his depth in the backfield.

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NFL

Monday, November 12

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Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Steelers
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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 41)

If Kansas City Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel crunches the numbers long enough, he might decide not to let his team board the plane for Monday night's game at the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. The early-season struggles appear to be a thing of the past for Pittsburgh, which has won three straight games, including a 24-20 comeback win on the road over the reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants a week ago.

If that's not enough, the Chiefs haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1986. Adding to the daunting task is that Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. One subplot is that Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be facing the team that fired him as head coach after 13 games last season, opening the door for Crennel to supplant him.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Steelers -12.5, O/U 41

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 90 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-7): Kansas City's season of misery continued with a 31-13 loss at San Diego on Nov. 1. The Chiefs committed four turnovers to boost their league-worst total to 29 and managed only 289 yards - a good chunk of it coming late in the fourth quarter. The lopsided defeat prompted Crennel to relinquish his duties as defensive coordinator so he can spend more time with the entire team to "get this thing right." Matt Cassel will make his second straight start since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3): The running game is what has turned things around for Pittsburgh. Isaac Redman gashed the Giants for 147 yards and a touchdown to follow up back-to-back 100-yard performances by Jonathan Dwyer, who sat out last week due to injury. Pittsburgh's defense has also come alive, ranking first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six quarterbacks with a passer rating above 100.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers' last six home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Pittsburgh forced four turnovers in winning at Kansas City 13-9 last season.

2. Crennel is 0-8 all-time against the Steelers.

3. Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/11/12 14-*10-*0 58.33% +*1500 Detail
11/08/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/05/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 29-*25-*0 53.70% +750


Monday, November 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:30 PM ET Kansas City +12.5 500

Pittsburgh - Under 40.5 500

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Bills Hoping To End 3-Game Slide Thursday Against Miami

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/15/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Bills -1, O/U 45
Television: NFL Network

Miami Dolphins: A second consecutive loss, this time a 37-3 whipping at the hands of the Titans last Sunday, left the Fins (4-5 straight-up, 4-4-1 against the spread) on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs. Four turnovers, three of them interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, did Miami in as Tennessee built a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. The Dolphins were 7-point favorites and surrendered a season-high 177 yards on the ground, 126 of those from Titans tailback Chris Johnson. Miami has now failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, though "under" bettors have found some profit with winning tickets in four of the last five Dolphin tilts. The Dolphins swept last year's two meetings, and they have won and covered three of the last four matchups with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills: The Gillette Stadium jinx remains alive for the Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS), who moved to 0-11 at the field since it opened with a 37-31 setback to the New England Patriots last week. Buffalo set a team record with 35 first downs and outgained the Pats 481-347 in the game, but three turnovers proved costly, none more than a pick thrown by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the final half-minute when the Bills appeared to be driving for a potential game-winning score. The Bills rolled up 162 yards on the ground, 80 of those by Fred Jackson, who has already been out for Thursday's game due to a concussion (click to check updated NFL injury report). Buffalo ranks sixth in the NFL with 143.1 yards per game on the ground and will turn to C.J. Spiller (632 yards rushing, 14th in NFL). Eight of the last 12 clashes in this series have failed to reach the total, but all three of Buffalo's home games this season have jumped the scoreboard figure.

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NFL Week 11 Preview: Dolphins at Bills

MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-5)

at BUFFALO BILLS (3-6)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -1.5, Total: 45

AFC East foes eager to put a stop to their losing streaks clash on Thursday night when the Bills host the Dolphins.

These teams have a short week to recover from tough Week 10 defeats. After a narrow 23-20 loss in Indianapolis in Week 9, the Dolphins were never in their Week 11 contest, getting blown out 37-3 at home to Tennessee. And the Bills were 15 yards away from upsetting the Patriots in New England (and that despite 148 penalty yards) before a game-ending INT sealed their third straight defeat. Miami has covered in eight of its past 10 road games, including an SU win at Buffalo last December. In that meeting, RB Reggie Bush torched the Bills for 203 rushing yards, and the Dolphins won despite losing three fumbles. Buffalo has allowed a league-high 164 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC this season. Bills RB Fred Jackson (concussion) is listed as doubtful.

Who will win this AFC East rivalry game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill had strung together four straight games without an interception before throwing three picks to the Titans last week. The rookie has a paltry 5 TD passes and 9 INT in his nine starts this season, but could have success facing Buffalo's 21st-ranked pass defense (246 YPG). Despite Bush's big day in his last visit to Ralph Wilson Stadium, he has just one game of 70+ rushing yards in 2012, way back in Week 2. Since then, he's rushed for a paltry 314 yards (45 per game) on 3.7 yards per carry. And although the Bills have the league's worst run defense, they have been better over the past two weeks (117.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC) against a pair of quality running teams (Texans, Patriots). Buffalo's defense needs to figure out a way to force some mistakes though, failing to cause a single turnover in each of its past three games.

Buffalo is just 1-2 (SU and ATS) at home this season, due mostly to a defense allowing 34.7 PPG and 464 total YPG to these three visitors (K.C., New England and Tennessee). QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has tossed 17 TD and 10 INT this season, but has failed to throw a touchdown in three of his past five games. He's 2-2 in his career versus Miami, throwing for 994 yards (249 YPG), 5 TD and 7 INT, with five of those picks coming last year. However, Miami's passing defense has been much worse this season, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (278 YPG). Turnovers continue to be a problem for this Bills offense, as they have 16 giveaways over the past six games. Another big issue in upstate New York has been injuries that continue to pile up. In addition to Jackson being doubtful, DE Mark Anderson (knee) remains out, while DE Chris Kelsay (neck) and CB Aaron Williams (ankle) are both doubtful. Three other key defenders are also banged-up, but are expected to play on Thursday -- CB Leodis McKelvin (groin) and DTs Marcell Dareus (shoulder) and Kyle Williams (ankle).

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Dolphins at Bills

November 15, 2012


This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Orchard Park in upstate New York, where Buffalo will take on Miami in an AFC East encounter.

As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Buffalo (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 45 ½. By early this afternoon, the Bills were favored by 2 1/2. Gamblers can take the Dolphins on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Chan Gailey’s team nearly pulled a shocking upset last Sunday in Foxboro, only to come up on the short end of a 37-31 decision. Although the Patriots got the outright victory, the Bills hooked up their betting supporters as 13 ½-point underdogs.

Buffalo had a chance to win in the waning moments, advancing to New England’s 15-yard line. The Pats didn’t seal the deal until Devin McCourty intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.

Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-40 passes for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson rushed 16 times for 80 yards and a pair of scores. He also had four receptions for 35 yards, but he sustained a concussion on the Bills’ final drive that will keep him ‘out’ this week.

For the season, Fitzpatrick has connected on 62.5 of his passes for 2,011 yards with a 17/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, hauling in 41 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.

Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller will get more opportunities and that’s not a bad thing. The Clemson product has rushed for 632 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Spiller also has 28 catches for 297 yards and one TD.

Buffalo is ranked 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 23.4 points per game. The Bills’ defense is the NFL’s worst, giving up 31.7 PPG.

Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off its worst effort of the season. Tennessee went into South Florida last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment from start to finish, collecting an easy 37-3 win as a 6 ½-point underdog. The 40 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point total.

Miami rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had not been intercepted since September, but he was picked off three times by the Titans. The Dolphins produced only 255 yards of total offense, and Reggie Bush had just six ‘touches’ (four carries, two catches).

Bush has rushed for 555 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 179 yards.

Tannehill has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 1,789 yards with a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. His favorite wideout has been Brian Hartline, who has 49 catches for 741 yards and one TD.

Miami’s defense has given up plenty of yards this year. To be exact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in total defense, surrendering 372.2 yards per contest. However, they are stingy about giving up points, allowing only 20.7 PPG (eighth in the NFL)

Joe Philbin’s squad has gone on the road five times, compiling a 2-3 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The ‘Fins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs.

Buffalo has only played at home three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite during Gailey’s three-year tenure, the Bills are 3-6-1 versus the number.

Buffalo will most likely be without two defensive starters. DE Mark Anderson (knee) and CB Aaron Williams (leg) are both listed as ‘doubtful.’

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for Buffalo, 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘Fins have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games.

Miami has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Buffalo both SU and ATS, including a sweep of the season series last year. The Dolphins won by a 35-8 count as three-point home favorites, and they collected a 30-23 win as one-point road ‘chalk.’

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the upper 30s with a wind chill of 33 degrees.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--With Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ailing from shoulder and rib injuries suffered in Monday’s overtime win over Kansas City, Byron Leftwich will make his first start since 2009 on Sunday night at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as three-point favorites with a total of 41. Roethlisberger could be out for an extended period of time.

--There are five home underdogs on the board in Week 11: Carolina (+1.5 vs. Tampa Bay), Oakland (+5.5 vs. New Orleans), Detroit (+3.5 vs. Green Bay), Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Baltimore) and Kansas City (+3.5 vs. Cincinnati).

--Click here to check out my NFL Power Rankings going into Week 11.

--My take on the ‘Terrible’ Tebow remark from an anonymous Jets player: Tim Tebow is a unique human being and football player. He owns special qualities that few people possess and that also pertains to his strengths and weaknesses as a QB. Without a doubt, if a team decides to go with Tebow as its every-down QB, it must cater to his talents. But for all of those knuckleheads (too many to name!) who speak in a matter-of-fact tone when stating that Tebow can’t be successful as an NFL signal caller, I submit to you the real facts, ones that aren’t up for debate.

In the only significant sample size we have for judging Tebow as a pro QB, he thrived. He was given the keys to a Denver team with a 1-4 record that was left for dead. Then the organization intentionally set him up to fail by trading its best WR, Brandon Lloyd, within 48 hours of naming Tebow as the starter. (Lloyd had led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.) The team that was done, one on its way to a 3-13 record, suddenly became the story in the NFL under Tebow. The Broncos won seven of its last 11 regular-season games to make the playoffs. Then in the postseason, Tebow helped the Broncos beat the Steelers in an overtime thriller. Next, they lost at New England in the playoffs. Last time I checked, a few quarterbacks and teams have been known to leave Gillette Stadium with ‘L’s in January.

And that’s all. There’s nothing else to judge Tebow by other than his 2011 campaign with the Broncos. And if memory serves, Tebow beat the Jets with a game-winning touchdown run at crunch time. On that play, Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ cornerback who can’t keep track of his kids’ names, refused to challenge Tebow as he scampered toward the end zone. Instead, Cromartie pretended as if he thought Tebow was still behind the line of scrimmage and turned his back as if he was still in coverage. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cromartie is the anonymous source, either. And if he wants the word ‘terrible’ defined for him, all he has to do is check the tape of the play as I just described.

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NFL

Week 11

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Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)

The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.

Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.

2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.

3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 11

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Tale of the tape: Dolphins at Bills
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An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spotlight when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.

The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

Edge: Bills


Defense

Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.

The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.

Edge: Dolphins


Special teams

The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.

Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.

Edge: Bills


Word on the street

"When you play like that, we need to make some corrections. We need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch.'' Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin on the team's quick turn-around following Sunday's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans.

"As an offense, we're definitely going to miss him because he brings so much to our team. But this is familiar territory for me.'' Bills RB C.J. Spiller speaking about the injury to starting tailback Fred Jackson.