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NFL

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9


Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)—Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)—Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)—Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6)—Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)—Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)—This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)— Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)—Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)—Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)—All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)— Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

With the calendar turning to November, books and bettors have a tighter grasp on the NFL teams heading into Week 9. We take a closer look at which lines have been on the move, in Las Vegas and online, with help from Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage, and Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: Texas -12, Move: -10

It’s been all public money on the Texans so far in Nevada and online. Perry reports 70 to 80 percent of the action is on Houston while Rood says the sharps are sitting this one out. The number opened as high as -12, however, most markets are dealing the key number of 10 as of Thursday.

“Wise guys haven’t come in on this one at all,” Rood told Covers. “We might go to 11 and (sharps) might take a pop and move it back to 10.5.”

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +1, Move: +2.5

The Dolphins, winners of three in a row, have been wiseguy darlings this season. However, the sharp money hasn’t influenced this move yet. Rood says the money has been pretty split with a slight lean to Miami.

“It’s a tough game for the betting public to figure out,” he says. “I don’t see it going up right now. If the sharps are getting involved in it, it may move (to the key number of -3).”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – Open: Raiders -1, Move: Pick

Money on the Bucs has moved this spread as far as a pick for Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay is another team drawing the admiration of sharps in recent weeks. Rood says the action has been split as of Thursday but the move to a pick’em at certain books may be an indication of where this line will end up.

“The +1 could be disappearing quickly and I could see it coming down to a pick at most places closer to game time,” he says.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks -2.5, Move: -4.5

This spread was as high as -5 before buyback came in on the Vikings. Minnesota is coming off a crushing home loss last Thursday and travels for just the third time this season to the toughest stadium in the NFL. The spread isn’t the only thing on the move for this game. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5.

“It’s going to be a test for Minnesota,” says Rood. “Minnesota’s defense is going to have to step up and give the offense a shot to win the game. It could be a test of wills on defense and a matter of whose horse can get going first – (Marshawn) Lynch or (Adrian) Peterson.”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Falcons -7, Move: -4

One online book opened this Sunday Night Football showdown as high as a touchdown. Most books are now dealing -4 with sharp bets coming in early on the Cowboys. Perry says they opened the spread at -5 and went to -5.5 before wise guys came back on Dallas. Sixty to 70 percent of the money is on the Falcons, however.

“As long as Dallas doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot, they can play with anyone in the league,” says Rood. “From a result perspective, nothing would shock me. I could see Dallas come out and stoke the Falcons by three touchdowns. And, I could see it be the complete opposite.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Open: Saints -3.5, Move: -3

Two struggling franchises take the Monday night spotlight, with the early money coming in on the Eagles and moving to the key number of a field goal.

“The sharks bit hard on this one at 3.5,” says Perry, “dropping the number to 3. Money is virtually down the middle, with 51 percent on the Saints.”

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)

Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters

The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)

Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster

Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.

Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)

Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field

Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.

That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting

Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).

The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)

The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)

Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).

Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)

The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)

The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)

The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)

Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)

The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)

Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.

Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)

The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)

Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

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NFL weather watch: Steelers' travel plans altered

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars (5, 44)

Site: EverBank Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies. However, fog could reduce visibility in the first half of the game. Winds will blow light out of the west.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-4, 38.5)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 55 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3, 48)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the north at 10 mph. Remember, the Steelers had to alter their travel plans due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy. The team was originally scheduled to fly in Saturday, but will instead travel early Sunday morning and return to Pittsburgh following the game.

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NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Falcons
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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 47.5)

Having turned the NFC South race into a runaway, the Atlanta Falcons will look to remain perfect when they host the enigmatic Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The league's lone undefeated team, the Falcons are coming off convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay.

The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the New York Giants before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. Dallas has not put together a solid all-around effort since beating the Giants on the road in the season opener. Ryan is 29-5 as a starter at the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta has been far from dominant at home this season, winning its three games by a total of 11 points.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Falcons -4, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): Quarterback Tony Romo has always been a lightning rod for criticism, but it's been justified this season as he has turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Romo was intercepted four times against the Giants to give him an NFL-worst 13 - three more than he thew all last season. Romo also threw for a career-high 437 yards in the game and was within an out-of-bounds fingertip of giving Dallas consecutive wins for the first time this season. The running game has struggled all season and has been non-existent with DeMarco Murray missing the last two games. Murray (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-0): Atlanta is coming off its most impressive outing of the season, scoring on its first six possessions to dismantle the Eagles. Ryan had the third-highest passer rating of his career (137.4) in throwing for 262 yards and the three TDs. Julio Jones had his first 100-yard game since Week 1 with five catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Ryan has thrived despite a running game that ranks 24th in the league at 95.0 yards per game. Veteran Michael Turner has failed to average more than three yards per carry in four of the seven games, but he continues to get a sizable number of carries as the Falcons seek to maintain balance in their offense.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys’ last seven road games.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 9 games.
* Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons are 28-0 when Ryan has a passer rating above 100, including 5-0 this season.

2. The Cowboys ranked fourth overall in total defense (292.4 yards per game) and third against the pass (187.7).

3. Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez needs one TD pass to reach 100 for his career.

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Sunday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Washington -3 500
Washington - Over 48 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +10 500
Green Bay - Under 43 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +5 500
Jacksonville - Over 43.5 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +4.5 500
Tennessee - Under 44 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -5 500
Cincinnati - Over 47.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -3.5 500
Cleveland - Under 43.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +10.5 500
Houston - Under 47.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami -1 500
Indianapolis - Under 44 500

Minnesota - 4:05 PM ET Minnesota +4 500
Seattle - Over 38.5 500

Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Oakland - Under 47 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 48 500

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Sunday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +4.5 500

Atlanta - Under 47 500

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NFL

Monday, November 5

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Monday Night Football: Eagles at Saints
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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 51.5)

Two of this season's underachieving teams will meet on Monday night as the Philadelphia Eagles invade the Crescent City for a date with the New Orleans Saints. While Drew Brees will undoubtedly be at the helm of the struggling Saints, initial reports had Eagles coach Andy Reid mulling the idea of a change at quarterback. Despite the talk, Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta last week.

Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards as New Orleans' two-game winning streak came to an end. Once again, a porous defensive effort contributed mightily to the Saints' undoing - a factor which could help the Eagles snap a three-game losing skid.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Saints -3, O/U 51.5.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-4): Although he scored two touchdowns, running back LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Vick could feast on a New Orleans defense which has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per contest this season - 50 yards more than 31st-ranked Buffalo.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-5): Despite a sluggish effort versus Denver, the high-octane offense of New Orleans is expected to give new Philadelphia defensive coordinator Todd Bowles plenty to think about. Tight end Jimmy Graham returned from a one-game absence due to a sprained right ankle with five catches, 63 yards and a score. Marques Colston posted the same numbers, but was held without a touchdown for the first time in three games. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who underwent hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints' rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.

2. Philadelphia DE Jason Babin has struggled coming off his 18-sack season in 2011. Babin, who has just 2.5 this season, was benched for poor performance
during Sunday's game versus Atlanta.

3. New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games.

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NFL

Monday, November 5

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Tale of the tape: Eagles at Saints
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints.

Offense

Although he scored two touchdowns, RB LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons last week. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who most recently allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Michael Vick was held under 200 yards passing for the second time in three games, throwing for 191 despite 35 attempts. Coach Andy Reid was mulling over a QB change for this contest, but has decided to give Vick a shot at redemption against the Saints.

Drew Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who recently underwent hand surgery. The New Orleans rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.

Edge: Saints


Defense

The Philadelphia stop unit didn't show much improvement last Sunday in its first game since secondary coach Todd Bowles replaced Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator. The Eagles surrendered a season-high 146 rushing yards and allowed scores on the Falcons' first six possessions. Less than 15 months after being diagnosed with a brain abnormality, DT Mike Patterson was activated from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday and will suit up Monday.

New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games. The Saints rank 30th in points allowed (30.9) and are allowing an NFL-worst 474.7 yards per game, more than 100 worse than last season's team which went 13-3. They showed no improvement last Sunday, allowing a season-high 530 yards.

Edge: Eagles


Special teams

The Saints' special teams took a hit this week with the injury to Sproles, who handles both kickoffs (averaging 28.7 yards per return) and punts (a 6.6-yard average). Special teams captain Courtney Roby (shoulder) has also being ruled of Monday night’s contest. However, K Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

The Eagles' special teams are nothing special, largely because coordinator Bobby April doesn't have the personnel to work with. April said WR Damaris Johnson will return punts vs. the Saints. "Damaris will be the guy. I know he's looking forward to it," April said this week. "He's from New Orleans. It'll be a big homecoming for him and I think he'll play really well."

Edge: Saints


Word on the street

"They are fixable…There were a lot of things (that were covered in) training camp, day one kind of things that shouldn't have happened. We corrected them in the meetings and we'll go from there." -- Todd Bowles on the team’s defensive issues.

"My biggest nightmare against Michael Vick was in 2004 in a playoff game when I was with the Rams… That was my first exposure to him, and he ran for 180 yards. I want to say this about Michael Vick, he is truly one of those gifted athletes that, from a coaching standpoint, can keep you up at night."—Joe Vitt on his perception of Michael Vick.

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MNF - Eagles at Saints

November 3, 2012

A pivotal game takes place for two desperate teams in the NFC on Monday night in New Orleans, as the Saints and Eagles each try to get back into the playoff race. Philadelphia has seen plenty of controversy this season with the whispers of Michael Vick being replaced at quarterback after posting a 3-4 record through seven games. That's nothing compared to all the talk around the Saints since "Bountygate," culminating in a dreadful 2-5 mark.

The Saints have endured plenty of hardships this season with head coach Sean Payton suspended and all the flux surrounding this team with the "Bountygate" fallout. New Orleans stumbled to an 0-4 start, which included an embarrassing overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 3 in which the Saints threw away a 24-6 lead. Things have relatively improved over the last month, as the Saints have won two of its last three, but that was topped off by a rout at the hands of New Orleans native Peyton Manning and the Broncos in last Sunday's 34-14 Denver victory.

The Eagles are trying to dig out of a hole, even though a victory would get Andy Reid's team back to .500. Philadelphia is coming off three consecutive defeats, including an ugly 30-17 home loss to Atlanta, in which the Eagles fell behind, 24-7 at the half. The offense is coming apart at the seams, as the Eagles have been outgained in three straight games, while Vick is throwing an interception for every touchdown (8/8). The Eagles have cashed just two of seven times this season, but one of those covers came as a road underdog at Pittsburgh in a 14-13 loss back in Week 5.

New Orleans won and covered all nine games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season, but the lone victory this season came in Week 5 against San Diego. The Saints needed to rally from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter, as Drew Brees burned his former team for four touchdowns. Since 2008, New Orleans owns a strong 14-3 ATS record as a home favorite of less than seven points, as the two earlier non-covers against Washington and Kansas City came when laying at least 8 ½ points.

Philadelphia is visiting the Big Easy for the first time since December 2007, a 38-23 victory over New Orleans as three-point 'dogs. The Saints picked up revenge against the Eagles in the most recent meeting in Philadelphia, a 48-22 blowout in Week 2 of 2009, as Brees tossed three touchdowns in the win.

New Orleans is playing under the Monday night lights for the first time since blowing out Atlanta in Week 16 of last season, 45-16. The Saints have won five straight Monday night contests at the Superdome dating back to 2008, while covering four times in this span. The Eagles are also making their 2012 Monday debut, as Philadelphia has cashed its last four road games under the Monday night lights since 2006.

One thing to keep an eye for the Eagles is the 5-1 ATS record as a road underdog since 2010, including four outright victories. If the Eagles want to get back in the playoff picture, the next three weeks are crucial for tiebreaker purposes. After Monday's game (a loss could put a fork in New Orleans), the Eagles play two divisional opponents as the Cowboys invade Philadelphia, followed by a trip to Washington. In fact, the Eagles play only one non-conference team the rest of the way (Bengals in Week 15).

The Saints don't have it easy at home coming up, with the Falcons and 49ers coming to Louisiana over the next month, while New Orleans has to travel to Oakland in Week 11. Monday's game will feature the seventh time the Saints have a total of at least 50, hitting the 'over' four of the first six opportunities in this situation.

New Orleans is listed as three-point home favorites on Monday, as the total is set between 51 ½ and 52 at most books. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Books gets destroyed

November 5, 2012

Las Vegas sports books just endured one of the roughest weekends ever in state history. Official record aren’t kept by the Nevada Gaming Control Board on daily numbers like they do for the Super Bowl, but from talking with several directors around town and having a personal understanding of what was one of the worst days ever in Las Vegas was, I feel comfortable in estimating that Nevada sports books lost anywhere from $7-to-9 million over the weekend, and that could be a low estimate.

No sports book director gave me any indication or hint of their actual numbers, nor did I ask, because it isn’t appropriate to put any of them in position to discuss their company funds. But after seeing the results of the weekend, which became an on-going parlay heaven for bettors and hearing the tone deflection in the directors voices after talking with them on a weekly basis, this was no ordinary weekend, but one that had been brewing for sometime.

“This was the perfect storm that has been brewing for the entire season,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It’s a disaster.”

A perfect storm indeed, where negative energy meets positive energy and explodes. The negative energy -- for the bettors -- has been the underdogs hitting at 61 percent over the season in the NFL, which has caused most public bettors -- who love betting the favorites -- to have a terrible season.

The positive energy is when the favorites finally start hitting. Over the weekend, beginning with Thursday night’s Chargers cover, the key favorites rolled into monster parlay payouts where six, seven, and eight teamers were cashing like never seen before. Even 10-team parlays were being cashed out at 800-to-1, odds that a book can never recoup.

“I’ve been here (LVH Super Book) eight-and-a-half years and this is the worst day I’ve had,” said LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay.

“This could rival won of the worst Sunday's we've ever had since I’ve been running a book,” said Osborne, a 25-year veteran of running books for Michael Gaughan’s properties.

Saturday started out decent for the books, but at the end of the day, college favorites went 32-19-1 against-the-spread. The big bang was the prime time games with LSU, Oregon, and Kansas State covering. The OVER in the Oregon and Kansas State games were almost as popular as the sides, and of course, the majority of the betting public had them all locked together in a parlay. Four-teamers pay 11-to-1, five-teamers pay 20-to-1, and they were popping.

It got even worse when the late Saturday results were posted with UCLA and Oregon State covering. Saturday was a big loser for the books, but the effects of the day wouldn’t be finished because the lingering live games were all going to public favorites on Sunday putting the books in a hole before the day even started.

This is when the big tidal wave starts to take it’s shape and puts the sports book in a position to have to beat down at least half of their big wagered upon games. On Sunday, they didn’t win any of those games.

“If you don’t win the morning games, you can’t recover,“ said Kornegay. “You’re looking at a red number that the afternoon or evening games can’t erase.

“We lost seven of the eight early games, the only game we won on was the Panthers beating the Redskins. It was pretty much Murphy’s law all day.”

The big game that got it all started was the Broncos covering four points at Cincinnati, and then one after another, every game fell the bettors way.

“We had some leftovers from a rough Saturday that spilled over and then our worst case scenario happened in the early games with Denver, Baltimore, and the Lions covering,” said Osborne. “Those three teams were wound together pretty tight on a lot of parlays, and then everything else followed suit with the afternoon games where Seattle was extremely bad, but the Bucs were even worse because it was the last game posted (before the Atlanta game) and everything tied in from the day that was still alive, paid out.”

When the last game is posted, the main screen doesn’t even show the parlay card results which was an entirely different wave of destruction, and perhaps maybe the most destructive.

On the day, the favorites went 8-4 against-the-spread, but even the underdogs that covered were either mixed with public support like the Panthers (+3) and Steelers (+3), or completely one sided, like the Colts (2.5) and the Buccaneers (+1).

“We’re not a big parlay card house, so I guess I feel fortunate that we don’t have that type of liability,” Kornegay said.

The big parlay card houses in town are the local properties, off the strip, who kind of live and die by the sword on a weekly basis. This season, they have been living quite extravagantly thanks to the underdogs, but on Sunday, they gave back a huge chunk of it.

The big blow came when the Falcons kicked a field goal with seconds left to take a six-point lead and cover the four-point spread.

“What was weird was that every game that had the possibility of having a back door cover at the end that might have helped us on a few games, didn’t happen,” Osborne said.

When the books can’t even get a back door cover for help, the kind that kills the small players' six-team parlay on a weekly basis, you know the perfect storm has hit.

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November Records

November 1, 2012


With trick or treating and NFL underdogs satisfying many a sweet tooth this season, we move on into the second half of the 2012 NFL campaign.

And thanks to our database, we learn how teams have fared during the month of November in five key situational roles, namely: Favorites, Dogs, Home, Away and in Division.

Before carving up that Thanksgiving Day turkey, be sure to check out this list of the appetizing team results. Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played in the NFL during November since 1990. Enjoy the games.

HOME TEAMS

-- Good: If you go through many Twitter pages or sports forums, you will find Tony Romo has a host of nicknames, some that cannot be posted here. Yet despite this, Romo and his predecessors at quarterback have been backed by fine defenses this month and are 37-18 ATS when playing in Big D. Dallas will have two chances to improve this record, on Thanksgiving and four days prior.

-- Bad: Having won a couple Super Bowls in the past several years, one would not use the word like 'mediocre' to describe the New York Giants very often, yet that is precisely what the G-Men are at home this month. Looking back, they have left their football-betting backers with a 13-27 ATS mark. They will have Pittsburgh the first Sunday of the month and a Sunday night affair with Green Bay to close November in New Jersey.

Another NFL team not synonymous with success is St. Louis, who last had a winning season in 2003. The Rams hired Jeff Fisher to take them out of this desolate existence and though general improvement has been witnessed, there is a long way to go. St. Louis is a dreadful 14-33 ATS at home this month and thanks to a bye week, only has one game at the E. J. Dome on November 18.

-- Keep an eye on: Buffalo and Oakland have been failures for years, yet for some reason they go in opposite directions in November playing on their own field. The Bills are a sharp 27-16 ATS, as the bone-chilling colds starts to set in, while the Raiders "Commit to Excellence" are just words, not to be taken seriously because of their 15-25 ATS record.

AWAY TEAMS

-- Keep an eye on: Over the last decade or more, when you hear the names Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit for NFL football, what are they associated with, success or failure? The Falcons and Chargers certainly fit the former and it shows in how they play on the road with Atlanta 26-15 ATS and San Diego 25-15 against the spread.

Toss out Detroit's 2011 campaign and the Lions and they have made more bad choices than the Octomom. Send Detroit out of MoTown and they are 13-25 ATS.

FAVORITES

-- Bad: Robert Griffin III has already done special things in a Redskins uniform, even guiding his team to home victories, something they have not been very good at recently. (36-44 SU, 2002-11) With RG3 doing his part fueled by Subway, maybe he takes the whole team over to the sub shop when they are in the role of favorite, since the Skins are 10-25 ATS. - which ties nicely into the lack of success starting rookie QB's have had in the league this season. This month, Washington will be giving points to Carolina and possibly to Philadelphia on November 18.

-- Keep an eye on: Previously, Dallas has been mentioned as rock solid home wager and naturally this has often come in the role as the favorite, doling out points. With this being true, the Cowboys are winners when passing points to the competition and are 39-20 versus the oddsmakers.

The Romeo Crennel era in Kansas City is starting to look it might last as long as the Rick Perry for President campaign. Seemingly, every mistake the Chiefs make is multiplied, giving credence to their failures and supporting their 10-25 ATS record. K.C. might be favored one time when the Bengals visit them.

DOGS

-- Keep an eye on: Two teams from the same division are polar opposites when it comes to how they perform when on the receiving end of catching linemakers' digits. Chicago is a sparkling 34-21 ATS as an underdog and is presumed to be in this role at San Francisco on a Monday night.

Detroit on the other hand is a feeble 22-38 ATS as a dastardly dog. Precisely how often oddsmakers will place them in this position is difficult to say with a road game in Minnesota and Ford Field affairs with Green Bay (Nov.18) and Houston on Thanksgiving.

DIVISION

-- Good: In the past, New Orleans has been cleaning up on the NFC South in the 11th month of the year, but this year's team and situation is completely different. The Saints have no defense, no running game and no real head coach, which makes it hard to conceive they will improve upon their 26-13 ATS record vs. division partners. Let's see how they perform in the bayou when Atlanta pays a visit on November 11.

-- Keep an eye on: For those betting on football that like numbers and appreciate coincidence, this is for you. Both Buffalo and Washington are 15-25 ATS against division opposition the past 21 years. This November, each will play one home and road game in their division and each circumstance has the Bills and Redskins playing them with four days between games. Weird!

Below is a list of each team with their November (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.

2012 NOVEMBER BREAKDOWN
Category 2011 2008-10 Week
TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 9 10 11 12
ARZ 3-1 3-1 6-8 6-8 @ GB -- @ ATL STL
ATL 3-1 1-2-1 10-4 10-4 DAL @ NO ARZ @ TB
BAL 3-1 2-1-1 10-4 8-6 @ CLE OAK @ PIT @ SD
BUF 0-4 1-3 4-9 6-6-1 @ HOU @ NE MIA @ IND
CAR 1-2 1-2 5-8 6-7 @ WSH DEN TB @ PHI
CHI 3-1 3-1 7-7 5-8-1 @ TEN HOU @ SF MIN
CIN 2-2 1-2-1 4-8 5-7 DEN NYG @ KC OAK
CLE 1-3 2-2 3-10 4-8-1 BAL -- @ DAL PIT
DAL 4-0 1-3 9-4 9-4 @ ATL @ PHI CLE WSH
DEN 4-0 4-0 5-8 5-8 @ CIN @ CAR SD @ KC
DET 1-2 1-2 1-13 3-10-1 @ JAX @ MIN GB HOU
GB 4-0 3-1 6-7 7-5-1 ARZ -- @ DET @ NYG
HOU 3-0 3-0 3-10 6-7 @ CHI JAX @ DET @ TEN
IND 0-3 0-3 12-3 7-6-2 MIA @ JAX @ NE BUF
JAX 1-2 1-2 6-6 5-7 DET IND @ HOU TEN
KC 0-4 1-3 5-7 8-4 @ SD @ PIT CIN DEN
MIA 3-1 4-0 9-5 6-8 @ IND TEN @ BUF SEA
MIN 0-3 0-2-1 10-3 7-5-1 @ SEA DET -- @ CHI
NE 3-1 3-1 7-6 6-6-1 -- BUF IND @ NYJ
NO 3-0 3-0 10-2 7-5 PHI ATL @ OAK SF
NYG 1-3 1-3 8-5 6-7 PIT @ CIN -- GB
NYJ 2-2 1-3 9-4 7-6 -- @ SEA @ STL NE
OAK 3-1 3-1 3-9 5-7 TB @ BAL NO @ CIN
PHI 1-3 1-3 8-6 6-8 @ NO DAL @ WSH CAR
PIT 2-1 1-2 8-5 7-6 @ NYG KC BAL @ CLE
SD 0-4 0-4 9-3 8-4 KC @ TB @ DEN BAL
SF 3-1 3-1 6-6 7-4-1 -- STL CHI @ NO
SEA 2-2 3-1 3-11 4-9-1 MIN NYJ -- @ MIA
STL 1-3 1-3 2-10 6-6 -- @ SF NYJ @ ARZ
TB 0-4 1-3 7-4 9-3 @ OAK SD @ CAR ATL
TEN 2-2 3-1 9-4 7-6 CHI @ MIA -- @ JAX
WSH 1-3 2-2 3-8 4-6-1 CAR -- PHI @ DAL

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NFL Week 9 Preview: Eagles at Saints

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-5)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 51.5

Two teams desperate for a victory cap off Week 9 when the Eagles visit the Saints on Monday night.

It’s getting close to do-or-die time for both these teams, and they both looked awful last week. The Eagles let Atlanta jump all over them at home, their third SU loss in a row, and they’re rumored to be ready to turn to rookie QB Nick Foles. Starting QB Michael Vick didn’t turn it over last week, but he reportedly made multiple mistakes changing plays. Philly fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo during its bye week but still allowed 392 yards and 30 points at home to Atlanta after making that move. New Orleans struggled in Denver, with TE Jimmy Graham clearly hampered by his ankle injury. The Saints defense is still the worst in the NFL, even with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma and DE Will Smith, as they allowed 500-plus yards each of the past two weeks and they’ve yet to hold an opponent under 400 yards.

Which team will leave New Orleans with a much-needed victory on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Vick threw for just 5.5 yards per pass attempt in last week's 30-17 loss to Atlanta, but threw a touchdown with no picks, giving him 9 TD and 8 INT on the year. With the Saints defense playing so poorly against both the run and the pass, Philly can choose to attack either way. Last week, the Broncos threw for 305 yards and rushed for 225 yards against New Orleans. No NFL running back is more versatile than LeSean McCoy, who is being used more and more in the passing game recently with 14 catches in the past three weeks. He will likely improve his running over this span, where he's gained just 120 yards on 46 carries (2.6 YPC). The speed of McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson, who has had either eight or nine targets in every game this season, needs to be utilized against this horrific Saints defense. Speaking of defense, the Eagles have to find a way to put pressure on the quarterback, as they have a pitiful two sacks over their past four games. This lack of a pass rush is a big reason the defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five games.

Although Saints QB Drew Brees does have a quick release, he has been sacked 13 times already this year. That hasn't affected his production though, as Brees ranks second in the NFL with 2,310 passing yards and 20 TD. Even though Graham still hasn't fully recovered from his high ankle sprain, he was still able to catch five passes on 10 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown last week. Top WR Marques Colston had the same exact numbers as Graham (10 targets, 5 rec, 63 yds), giving him 30 catches for 420 yards and 5 TD over his past four contests. The Saints rushing game continues to be an afterthought, as they have the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (139, 19.9 per game) leading to the fewest rushing yards (73 YPG) and third fewest yards per carry (3.7). With last week's 51 yards on 17 carries, the Saints now have four straight games of fewer than 90 rushing yards. Defensively, New Orleans has done little right. This team has just three interceptions for the entire season and has generated just seven sacks in the past four games. The Saints rank 31st in rushing defense (170 YPG) and 30th against the pass (305 YPG).

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Monday, November 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -2.5 500

New Orleans - Under 52 500