The Bum's Novembers College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Unbeaten Oregon visits slumping Cal on Saturday

OREGON DUCKS (9-0)
at CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (3-7)

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -28, Total: 67.5

No. 3 Oregon looks to secure its 10th straight win to start the season when it visits struggling Cal on Saturday night.

The home team is on a 7-2 run (SU and ATS) in this series, but Oregon has won the past three meetings (2-1 ATS), including a 15-13 win at Cal in 2010 in a game where the Bears were accused of faking injuries to stop the no-huddle attack. Nobody has stopped the unbeaten Ducks in 2012, as they have scored at least 42 points in every game and are riding a current four-game ATS win streak. California has dropped three in a row (SU and ATS), and is just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in home games versus FBS schools this season.

Can Oregon cover the hefty spread on the road? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Oregon RB Kenjon Barner is coming off a school-record 321 rushing yards and 5 TD in the 62-51 win at USC last week, a game in which OU piled up 730 total yards of offense. That marks Barner's fifth straight 100-yard effort, as he's totaled 885 rushing yards (177 per game) and 13 TD over this span. The Ducks are scoring 56.8 PPG with 575 total yards per game (384 rush YPG) during the current four-game ATS win streak. Freshman QB Marcus Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the win over the Trojans, giving him 22 TD and just 5 INT this year. The defense got lit up for 51 points and 615 yards in last week's win at USC, but they have been outstanding in turning the football over with 21 takeaways over the past six games.

Cal actually led last year's meeting at halftime before Oregon rolled up 29 unanswered points and prevailed 43-15. The Bears will have a much harder time staying in this game if starting QB Zach Maynard's knee prevents him from playing. His numbers haven't been stellar in his senior year (7.5 YPA, 12 TD, 10 INT) but a lot of that has to do with the ridiculous 39 sacks he's taken. Only two FBS teams (Colorado 40 and Washington 40) have surrendered more sacks this year. Maynard completed just 20-of-41 passes for 218 yards (5.3 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT in last year's loss in Eugene. If Maynard can't go, Allan Bridgford will replace him. The junior has completed just 17-of-48 pass attempts (35%) in his career, including 4-of-16 for 32 yards in two games this year. RBs C.J. Anderson and Isi Sofele will be the most important parts of the Bears offense. Anderson rushed for 160 yards on 7.3 YPC in last week's loss to Washington and Sofele had a huge game at Oregon last year with 119 yards on just 12 carries. Although Cal's defense has not faced an offense in the same class as the Ducks, the Bears started the season allowing 27+ points in each of its first five games, but has given up 21 points or less in four of the past five contests. And Oregon has been turnover-prone with 17 giveaways in the past eight games.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas A&M at Alabama

November 9, 2012

Since losing to LSU in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium last November, Alabama (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) had won 12 consecutive games by 17 points or more. In other words, Nick Saban’s team had not been in a 60-minute slugfest in a long time.

Well, the Crimson Tide got just that last Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Trailing 14-3 at intermission, LSU dominated the second half and bullied its way into the lead at crunch time.

Zach Mettenberger enjoyed his best game as a college football player, completing 24-of-35 throws for 298 yards and one touchdown without an interception. His 14-yard scoring strike to Jarvis Landry gave the Tigers a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter.

When Mettenberger connected with Odell Beckham for a 22-yard gain to Alabama’s 31 with 2:34 remaining, LSU appeared poised to pull off the upset. But Alabama had two timeouts left and used both of them after stuffing a pair of run plays, setting up a third-and-10 situation for LSU.

Although Les Miles had been aggressive all night long and his QB was in a great rhythm, he opted for the safe play. Jeremy Hill rushed for four yards to set up a 45-yard field goal. Drew Alleman’s attempt was off the mark, though, giving the Tide a chance to go 72 yards in 88 seconds.

LSU’s defense had given Alabama QB A.J. McCarron absolutely nothing in the second half, limiting him to one completion for zero yards. But the junior signal caller had different ideas for the biggest drive of his career.

It started with a quick throw to Kevin Norwood, who shook a tackler for first-down yardage and an 18-yard gainer. Most importantly, the clock stopped to move the chains.

Quickly on the ball, McCarron hit Norwood again on a deep out for 15 yards. This time, Norwood got out of bounds at LSU’s 39 with 1:11 remaining.

Now as long as Alabama avoided a sack, the clock wasn’t much of an issue. McCarron went to Norwood again on an out pattern for 11 yards to LSU’s 28. Again, Norwood got out of bounds.

At this point, it was time to get greedy. Forget a game-tying field-goal attempt to force overtime. McCarron smelled blood and was ready to go for the kill. He dropped back and looked to Norwood – again! – in the back of the end zone but the pass fell incomplete after Norwood and the defender went down due to incidental contact.

For the first four plays of the drive, LSU had sat back in coverage with just a four-man rush. On second and 10 with 51 ticks left, the Tigers decided to bring pressure. Unfortunately for them, Alabama had the perfect play called.

McCarron threw a screen pass to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon, who had blockers in front. This looked like trouble from the get-go and it was. Yeldon only needed to make one man miss (he did) before scampering to paydirt.

On LSU’s ensuing drive, it went three and out without getting the clock stopped once. Alabama had escaped with a 21-17 win, but LSU took the cash as an eight-point home underdog. The 38 combined points barely stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.

Now gamblers must determine where Alabama is at physically and emotionally after playing its toughest game of the season, one it was shooting for all year. The Tide better be ready for another barnburner because Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) is coming to Tuscaloosa with nothing to lose and one of college football’s premier weapons in redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel.

Most betting shops are listing Alabama as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56. Bettors can take the Aggies on the money line for a generous plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Kevin Sumlin’s squad has been the SEC’s biggest surprise, losing only to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19) in games it led for most of the first half. This is Texas A&M’s third road assignment in as many weeks, but the road has been good.

The Aggies smashed Mississippi St. by a 38-13 count last week and went into Auburn and emerged with a 63-21 victory two weeks ago. The 63-point eruption on The Plains was the most points an opponent had ever scored in the storied history of Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Manziel has produced video-game numbers all year. He leads the SEC in rushing with 922 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Manziel has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,527 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Texas A&M is tops in the SEC and fifth in America in scoring, averaging 44.7 points per game. With that sort of production, you know there are other key pieces in addition to the start signal caller.

Manziel has two of the SEC’s top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Ryan Swope. Evans has hauled in 56 receptions for 802 yards and two TDs, while Swope has 45 catches for 641 yards and five TDs.

RB Ben Malena has rushed for 637 yards and six TDs, averaging 6.6 YPC. Christine Michael has rushed for 381 yards and eight scores.

This offense will go up against a ‘Bama ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense (9.1 PPG).

McCarron still hasn’t thrown an interception this year and has 19 TD passes.

As a home favorite on Saban’s watch, Alabama has posted a 17-18 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 3-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Alabama has seen its totals go 4-4-1 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in its home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
11/07/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/12 37-*34-*2 52.11% -*200 Detail
11/02/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/01/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 49-*38-*2 56.32% +3600


Saturday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -7 500
Indiana - Under 55 500

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern +8.5 500
Michigan - Over 52 500

Army - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers -17.5 500 BIG EAST PODRutgers - Under 53 500

Louisville - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse +2 500
Syracuse - Over 59 500

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Temple +8.5 500
Temple -

Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +10.5 500 BIG 12 POD
Texas -

Miami - 12:00 PM ET Virginia -1.5 500
Virginia -

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Over 48 500
Iowa -

Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET South Carolina -13.5 500
South Carolina -

Kansas - 12:00 PM ET Kansas +25.5 500
Texas Tech -

UL Lafayette - 12:21 PM ET UL Lafayette +27 500
Florida -

Missouri - 12:21 PM ET Missouri +3 500
Tennessee -

Georgia Tech - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina -7.5 500 ACC POD
North Carolina -

Florida Atlantic - 1:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -15.5 500
Western Kentucky -

Central Michigan - 1:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +2.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Kent State - 1:00 PM ET Kent State -6.5 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Colorado - 1:30 PM ET Arizona -29 500 PAC 12 BLOW OUT
Arizona -

Massachusetts - 2:00 PM ET Akron -16 500
Akron - Over 58.5 500

Oregon State - 3:00 PM ET Stanford -4 500
Stanford -

Arizona State - 3:00 PM ET Arizona State +8 500
Southern California - Over 63.5 500

Wake Forest - 3:00 PM ET Wake Forest +7.5 500
North Carolina State -

Air Force - 3:30 PM ET Air Force +7 500
San Diego State - Over 57.5 500

Penn State - 3:30 PM ET Penn State +8 500
Nebraska - Under 51 500

Wyoming - 3:30 PM ET Wyoming -1.5 500
New Mexico - Under 54 500

West Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State -10 500
Oklahoma State - Over 77 500

Baylor - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -21.5 500
Oklahoma - Over 75 500

Maryland - 3:30 PM ET Clemson -31.5 500
Clemson - Under 55.5 500

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M +13.5 500
Alabama - Under 56 500

Minnesota - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +3 500
Illinois - Under 45.5 500

Western Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Buffalo +2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 54 500

San Jose State - 3:30 PM ET San Jose State -20.5 500
New Mexico State - Over 55 500

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Navy -2.5 500
Troy - Under 60 500

Marshall - 4:30 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +3 500
Alabama-Birmingham - Over 74.5 500

Tulsa - 5:00 PM ET Houston +3.5 500
Houston - Over 66.5 500

South Alabama - 5:00 PM ET South Alabama +7.5 500
North Texas - Over 48.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Best Bets:

Georgia - 7:00 PM ET Auburn +15 500
Auburn - Under 51.5 500

UNLV - 7:00 PM ET UNLV - 1 500
Colorado State - Under 53.5 500

Boise State - 7:00 PM ET Boise State -28 500
Hawaii - Over 52.5 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State +16 500
Louisiana State - Under 44.5 500

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +2.5 500
Mississippi -

Tulane - 7:00 PM ET Memphis +1 500
Memphis -

Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech-20 500
Texas State - Over 69 500

Southern Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -14.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Kansas State - 7:00 PM ET Kansas State -6.5 500
Texas Christian -

Central Florida - 7:00 PM ET Central Florida -13.5 500
Texas El Paso -

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Boston College +19.5 500
Boston College -

Idaho - 10:15 PM ET Brigham Young -39.5 500
Brigham Young -

Oregon - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -29 500 California -

Utah - 10:30 PM ET Utah -1 500
Washington - Over 47 500

UCLA - 10:30 PM ET UCLA -16.5 500
Washington State - Over 61.5 500

Fresno State - 10:35 PM ET Fresno State -3.5 500
Nevada - Over 68.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Toledo-NIU clash for MAC West title Wednesday

TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-2)
at NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (9-1)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -10.5, Total: TBD

Northern Illinois looks to stay unbeaten in MAC play when it hosts high-powered division rival Toledo on Wednesday night.

These MAC West rivals have met for each of the past 15 seasons, with Toledo going 11-4 SU (9-5-1 ATS). But NIU has taken three of four (SU and ATS), including two straight, winning 65-30 in 2010 and 63-60 last year with a game-winning TD with 19 seconds left in regulation. This season, the Huskies have rolled through conference play, going 6-0 (SU and ATS) and winning by an average score of 47.2 to 15.2 PPG. However, the Rockets have also been great in-conference, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS), with 36.3 PPG, but allowing 28.0 PPG. NIU is the better team, but this spread is way too large. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 8+ straight SU wins, carrying a win pct. of at least 80% facing a good team (60% to 80% win pct.) are just 13-40 ATS (24%) since 1992. Also, Toledo is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and Northern Illinois is just 6-16 ATS (27%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992. The pick here is TOLEDO to win ATS.

For more college picks, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Toledo is coming off a 34-27 home loss to Ball State, where it outgained the Cardinals 526 to 446 in total yards and 311 to 166 in rushing yards. David Fluellen rushed for 200 of those on 34 carries (5.9 YPC), giving him a ridiculous 1,094 rushing yards (182 per game) and 9 TD in six games versus MAC opponents this year. He is now tied for second in the nation with 138.1 rushing YPG, averaging a hefty 6.0 YPC this year. Fluellen had just eight carries for 31 yards in last year's loss to NIU. Rockets QB Terrance Owens played sparingly in the 2011 meeting with the Huskies (1-for-2, 3 yds), but totaled 211 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the 2010 loss in Dekalb. Owens has been solid this season (2,412 pass yds, 14 TD, 5 INT), but has thrown just 5 TD and 5 INT over his past six games. The Rockets defense continues to struggle in 2012, especially against the pass, where they allow 288 passing YPG (9th-most in FBS). They have surrendered at least 200 passing yards in all 10 of their games this year, giving up 280 in last week's loss to Ball State. Toledo's run defense has also been shoddy in the past four weeks, allowing 228 rushing YPG on 6.1 YPC. The one positive for the defense is that the Rockets continue to force turnovers, tallying 14 takeaways in the past six games. They could be without senior S Mark Singer (41 tackles, 2 INT), who missed last week's loss with a knee injury.

Northern Illinois ranks ninth in the nation in scoring (40.6 PPG), thanks mostly to dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch, whose 352 total YPG is fourth-most in the nation and his 134 rushing YPG ranks fifth among all FBS players. The junior has not thrown an interception in MAC play this year (155 pass attempts), piling up 12 TD through the air and 11 TD on the ground during this six-game stretch. Senior WR Martel Moore has 8 touchdown grabs in his past nine games, but in three career meetings versus Toledo, he's totaled just five catches for 37 yards. The NIU defense has given up just 17.9 PPG (15th in FBS), holding three of the past four opponents to seven points or less, including last week's 63-0 shutout of Massachusetts. The Huskies have gotten great penetration at the line with 2.8 sacks per game (T-17th in FBS), including a MAC-best 7.4 Tackles For Loss per game. They have also done a stellar job of forcing mistakes, causing 16 turnovers in six games versus MAC opponents.

[StarDust Bum]

Oh you got to be kidding me...i forgot to post my Wednesday Night MAC Twin Bill Games of the year ???


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/10/12 43-*35-*1 55.13% +*2250 Detail
11/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
11/07/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/12 37-*34-*2 52.11% -*200 Detail
11/02/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/01/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 92-*73-*3 55.76% +5850

Wednesday, November 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 8:00 PM ET BALL ST. -6 500

Ball State - Over 63 500

Toledo - 9:00 PM ET TOLEDO +10.5 500

Northern Illinois - Under 63.5 500


MAC WEDNESDAY NIGHT GOY'S

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail
11/10/12 43-*35-*1 55.13% +*2250 Detail
11/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
11/07/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/12 37-*34-*2 52.11% -*200 Detail
11/02/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/01/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 96-*73-*3 56.80% +7850



Thursday, November 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Virginia +3 500

Virginia - Over 62 500


ACC Thursday's DOG of the DAY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii at Air Force

November 16, 2012

Norm Chow finally got his first head-coaching job when he was hired at Hawaii in January. Things haven’t gone according to his wishes, however.

When the Warriors take the field tonight at Air Force, they will be looking to snap a seven-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Their only win came over an FCS foe, Lamar, in a 54-2 home win in a non-lined affair.

Most books have installed Air Force (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) as a 22-point favorite with a total of 60. 5Dimes has the Warriors available on the money line for an 11/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,100).

Troy Calhoun’s team has lost back-to-back games, including a 28-9 loss last week at San Diego St. as a seven-point underdog. The Falcons enjoyed a 393-268 advantage in total offense, but they couldn’t overcome four turnovers.

The 37 combined points stayed way ‘under’ the 57 ½-point total.

Air Force has won four of its five home games, going 2-3 versus the number. During Calhoun’s six-year tenure, the Falcons are 11-16 ATS as home favorites. Even worse, they are 3-13 ATS in such spots since 2010.

Air Force is led by senior quarterback Connor Dietz, who has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,095 yards with a 7/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dietz has rushed for 606 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Senior RB Cody Getz paces Air Force in rushing, producing 1,006 yards and eight TDs. Getz averages 7.3 YPC.

The Falcons are scoring 30.6 points per game and giving up 28.9 PPG.

Hawaii (1-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) is coming off a 49-14 loss to Boise St. as a 28-point home underdog. Mike Edwards had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to tie the game at 7-7 early in the first quarter, but that was the highlight of the game for the Warriors. They didn’t score again until John Lister’s one-yard TD plunge with 5:35 remaining.

Hawaii committed five turnovers against the Broncos, who played turnover-free football.

UH has lost by 15 or more points in each of its five road assignments, going 1-4 ATS. The Warriors have lost by scores of 49-10, 47-0, 52-14, 42-27 and 45-10. They are ranked No. 112 in the nation in scoring, averaging a pedestrian 19.6 points per game.

Things aren’t any better on defense, either. UH is No. 123 in scoring defense, giving up 43.9 PPG.

One of the few bright spots for UH has been redshirt freshman running back Will Gregory, who has rushed for 561 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Starting QB Sean Schroeder has struggled with a 9/10 TD-INT ratio.

Hawaii’s third-leading receiver, sophomore Trevor Davis, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a neck injury. Davis has 17 receptions for 235 yards and two touchdowns.

Air Force senior linebacker Alex Means, who had 77 tackles and six sacks last year, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh injury. Also, the Falcons have three other starting defensive players (safety Anthony Wooding, safety Jay Fullam and LB Jamil Cooks) who are ‘out’ with season-ending injuries.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Falcons, 2-2 in their four home games with a total. The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Hawaii, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 its road assignments.

These teams haven’t met since 2001 when Hawaii spanked the Falcons by a 52-30 count as a 12-point home favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--North Carolina captured a 37-13 win last night at Virginia as a 3 ½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers fell to a pathetic 1-9-1 ATS.

--There is a second college football game tonight in South Florida as Florida Atlantic hosts Fla. International as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The Owls and Panthers have combined for a 5-15 SU record this year. ESPNU will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

--FAU has covered the spread in eight consecutive games.

--Nevada has failed to cover the number in six consecutive games and eight of its last nine. The Wolf Pack is favored by 10 Saturday at New Mexico.

--Southern Cal running back Silas Redd is ‘questionable’ at UCLA due to an ankle injury. Redd, who missed last week’s win over Arizona St., has rushed for 732 yards and nine TDs, averaging 5.4 YPC.

--Northwestern will be without two defensive starters at Michigan St. LB Collin Ellis is ‘out’ with an undisclosed injury and Nick VanHoose will sit due to a back ailment. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS, while the Spartans have limped to a 3-7 ATS mark.

--The nation’s top-five ATS teams are Utah St. (9-0-1), Fresno St. (10-1), Northwestern (9-1), Kansas St. (8-1-1) and Ball St. (8-2).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 16, 2012

Hawaii at Air Force, 9:30 ET ESPN2
Hawaii: 23-8 Over off a conference loss
Air Force: 7-17 ATS as a favorite


Added Game:

Florida International at Florida Atlantic, 8:00 ET ESPNU
Florida Int: 2-13 ATS off a bye week
Florida Atl: 8-1 ATS as an underdog

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 16

8:00 PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida International's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home

9:30 PM
HAWAII vs. AIR FORCE
Hawaii is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games
Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 309-310: Hawaii at Air Force (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 61.818; Air Force 88.133
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 26 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Air Force by 22 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-22 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Florida International at Florida Atlantic (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 73.357; Florida Atlantic 72.465
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 1; 59
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 16

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Hawaii: Most costly bet in college football right now
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When you're talking Hawaii, it doesn't get any worse for bettors right now. The Warriors are tied with Illinois for having the longest ATS (against the spread) losing streak in the nation at a depressing seven games.

Hawaii is getting more than three touchdowns for the third straight game Friday where it's an underdog of 21.5 points at Air Force.

Here's a look at the numbers to see just how bad the Rainbows are this year:

-They have the second-worst scoring defense in the country (43 ppg against) and the worst red zone defense. They haven't held an opponent to fewer than 42 points on the road this season.

-They own the 4th-worst total offense in the nation (295.22 ypg).

-They own the worst turnover margin in the nation (-1.89). Only Houston and Idaho have lost more turnovers this season than Hawaii's 28 and the Warriors have at least two fumbles in every game vs. FBS teams this year.

-Hawaii is fourth-worst in passing efficiency - a depressing figure for a Norm Chow offense. (The team just hired Utah QB Jordan Wynn this week as QB coach to start in January).

-The Warriors rank 106th in rushing defense, another troubling number considering Air Force runs almost every play and ranks second in the nation in rushing (335.3 ypg).

-Hawaii has been out-gained by at least 170 yards in all but one game this season. (Outgained by 60 yards against New Mexico).

-Umm, strangely Hawaii is the best kickoff return team in the WAC and 13th best in the nation with 26.21 yards per return.

-Things are so bad, Hawaii has scrapped a Dec. 7 home game against Temple.


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NCAAF

Friday, November 16

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Florida Atlantic: Quietly piling up money for bettors
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The Florida Atlantic Owls have been one of the best kept secrets in sports betting this season. They’ve now amazingly covered the spread in eight straight games and rank in a tie as the sixth-most profitable team in the country for college football bettors at 8-2 ATS (against the spread).

The Owls have done it all quietly, tucked away neatly in the unheralded Sun Belt Conference, where the only games appearing on ESPN are on the “U” and they are played on days that end in “riday”. The Owls are also just 3-7 straight up this season, a record typically not associated with raking in profits for bettors.

Well the secret is out, for those who have been listening. FAU opened as a 1-point underdog for Friday’s home game against FIU in the Shula Bowl and sharps quickly propped the Owls up to a 2-point favorite.

It marks the first time FAU has been favored against an FBS squad since Nov. 13, 2010 when the team was an 11.5-point fave against La.-Lafayette. The closest the Owls came to being favored this season versus an FBS foe was when they were a 4.5-point dog on Oct. 20 at Southern Alabama and lost 37-34 in OT.

FAU has been slow to get rolling this season under new coach Carl Pelini with new systems while playing in a brand new stadium. But Pelini told the Palm Beach Post recently he thinks his team can win its final three games.

The Owls ended a 15-game road losing streak with a 37-28 win as a 15.5-point underdog over the weekend. One clear sign of improvement is in the yardage battle. FAU was badly out-gained in yards in its first three games against FBS competition this year. But then it lost the yardage battle by a mere 40 yards combined in its next two games and has now won the yardage war in three of its past four games.

One area they’ll want to clean up on to get past FIU is defense, though. FAU hasn’t held an opponent to fewer than 24 points in any of its past five games.


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Friday's games
Hawai'i is awful, 0-8 vs I-A teams; only game they covered was a 49-10 (+40) loss at USC- they've been outscored 77-10 in first half of last two games. Only one of their five road losses was by less than 35 points. Air Force lost its last two games, is just 1-5 vs spread as a favorite (1-2 as a home favorite). Warriors haven't played Air Force since 2001. MWC home favorites are 10-5 vs spread. Four of last five Hawai'i games went over total, five of last six Air Force games stayed under.

FAU covered its last games (2-6 SU) but was underdog in all eight; this is only their third home game vs I-A opponent (1-1). FIU (-17) pounded FAU 41-7 LY, ending five-game skid in local rivalry where faves covered five of last six games; Panthers lost last couple visits here, 21-9/28-21. FIU lot seven of last eight games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. This is a busride game, so not like any travel involved. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-15 against spread. Three of last four FAU games went over total.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/15/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail
11/10/12 43-*35-*1 55.13% +*2250 Detail
11/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
11/07/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/12 37-*34-*2 52.11% -*200 Detail
11/02/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/01/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 96-*75-*3 56.14% +6750


Friday, November 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida International - 8:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic -2 500
Florida Atlantic - Under 51.5 500

Hawaii - 9:30 PM ET Air Force -21.5 500

Air Force - Under 61 500

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Pac-12 Report - Week 12

November 14, 2012

Saturday - Southern California at UCLA (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

How nice is it to see this game as being relevant again? College football needs this. The Pac-12 needs this. It's been a while since UCLA enters the 'Inner City' rivalry game with a higher ranking. In fact, the last time that happened was 2001. UCLA has a sour taste in its mouth after getting their heads handed to them, 50-0, in last season's game. The Trojans have won 12 of the past 13 meetings straight-up, but UCLA has been the better team this season, and USC needs this one to avert a complete disaster. USC is 1-4 ATS in its past five games against a team with a winning record, and 0-5 ATS in its past five road games. UCLA is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with a team that has a winning record, and 12-3 ATS in its past 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Bruins are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. While the Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 meetings with the Bruins, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine. USC is favored, but mostly due to recent trends over the years, and not because of this season's body of work.

Saturday - Stanford at Oregon (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

If not for the emergence of UCLA, and the importance of their rivalry game with USC, this would be the marquee matchup in the Pac-12. In fact, it still might be the better game. The Cardinal are 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 road games, and 15-5-1 in their past 21 Pac-12 battles. The Cardinal are also 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups against a team with a winning record. However, the Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games and 5-0 ATS in the past five overall. However, Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a winning road record. As such, Stanford might be the play getting near three touchdowns. If you can get Stanford plus-21, that might be the way to go. They need all the help they can get, as Stanford is 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Oregon, and 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Eugene.

Saturday - Arizona at Utah (ESPNU, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

Arizona has been impressive, going 6-1 at home. However, they are 0-3 away from Tucson. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, 0-4 ATS in the past four against a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a losing home record. For Utah, they are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning record. In the past five meetings, the dog is 4-1 ATS, and the road team is 4-1 ATS. If you want overwhelming evidence for a wager, it might be the over. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's past five games against a team with a losing record, and 6-2 in their past eight road contests. The over is also 17-5 in Arizona's past 22 Pac-12 tilts. For Utah, the over has cashed in four straight at Rice-Eccles, and is 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning record.

Saturday - California at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

There was talk about an undefeated season in Corvallis, but it's hard to believe the media even believed their own hype. Oregon State has been dumped twice in the past three games, although both losses came on the road. At Reser Stadium, they are 4-0 this season. The Cal Bears are just 1-3 on the road, and 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall. Cal is also 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games, and 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Beavs are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 overall. If you were thinking about the total, Cal is 12-5 in their past 17 Pac-12 tilts, and the under is 14-6 in the past 20 overall. For Oregon State, the under is 9-4-1 in their past 14 home games. The under is also 4-1-1 in the past six meetings at Oregon State, and 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall.

Saturday - Washington State at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Washington State has been terrible this season, although they were able to cover last week against UCLA. In fact, they have covered two of their past three, and four of the past six despite losing each game straight up. Washington State is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, although just 2-5 ATS in their past seven visits to Tempe. For AZ State, they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 battles. However, they are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. It might be best just to stay away due to a bunch of conflicting trends. Even the over/under has evidence pointing to either side.

Saturday - Washington at Colorado (FX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

The Huskies are starting to re-emerge as a respectable Pac-12 team, winning and covering three straight games to return to the Top 25. Colorado, well, it is just ugly. They have lost nine of their 10 games, including all five at home. But hey, their lone win is against a team from the state of Washington, the Huskies' Apple Cup rival, Washington State. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games, but 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, and 8-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a losing record. For Colorado, they are 0-5 ATS in their past five games in Boulder, and 1-5 ATS in their past six tilts against a team with a winning record.

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Big 12 Battles

November 16, 2012


The Week 12 card certainly isn’t the best one we’ve seen this season, but we’ve got a pair of Big 12 games with plenty on the line. Most notably, unbeaten Kansas St. (10-0 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread) will play its second road game in as many weeks at Baylor.

Most betting shops have installed the Wildcats as 12 ½-point favorites with a total of 75. Gamblers can take the Bears on the money line for a plus-425 payout (risk $100 to win $425).

Bill Snyder’s team has only been challenged twice this year in wins at Oklahoma (24-19) and at Iowa St. (27-21). KSU’s eight other victories have come by margins of 14 points or more.

In four road assignments, Kansas St. has a 3-0-1 spread record. Despite suffering a concussion the previous week in a 44-30 home win over Oklahoma St., senior quarterback Collin Klein was able to go in Ft. Worth last weekend.

Klein led the Wildcats to a 23-10 win at TCU as a 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’ He ran for a pair of touchdowns while the defense produced its best effort of the year.

Klein is considered the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy, with Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel looking like the only challenger. Klein has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 2,020 yards with a 12/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 748 yards and 19 TDs.

Junior running back John Hubert has run for a team-high 783 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Klein’s favorite throwing target is Chris Harper, who has 36 receptions for 604 yards and two TDs.

Baylor (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) can make its season and renew its postseason aspirations with an upset win in this spot. In addition, it could make a lot of people in Tuscaloosa and Athens happy.

But Art Briles’s squad has lost five of its last six games, including last Saturday’s 42-34 setback at Oklahoma. The Bears did hook up their betting supporters as 21-point underdogs. In fact, they have posted a 4-2 spread record during their current 1-5 SU slide.

The offense hasn’t been the problem, though. Even without last year’s Heisman winner, Robert Griffin III, the Bears rank second in the nation in total offense. They are seventh-best in scoring, averaging 42.7 points per game.

Senior QB Nick Florence has 3,191 passing yards with a 25/11 TD-INT ratio. Florence has also rushed for 362 yards and six TDs.

Baylor senior WR Terrance Williams has enjoyed a breakout campaign, hauling in 77 receptions for 1,431 yards and 10 TDs.

During Briles’s five-year tenure, Baylor is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for the Bears, 2-1 in their three home games with a total. Meanwhile, K-St. has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, but the ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in its road assignments.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

One hour earlier on FOX, West Virginia (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) will take on Oklahoma in Morgantown. Most spots are listing the Sooners as 11-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 74. WVU is available on the money line for an attractive plus-330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

Dana Holgorsen’s team had national-title aspirations in early October, but those hopes have given way to a four-game losing streak in WVU’s first venture through the teeth of a Big 12 schedule. Even worse, the Mountaineers are mired in an abysmal 1-7 ATS slide.

West Va. is coming off a 55-34 loss at Oklahoma St. as a 10 ½-point underdog last Saturday. Geno Smith completed 36-of-54 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Junior WR Stedman Bailey had 14 catches for 225 yards and one TD.

Nevertheless, WVU had to play from behind the entire game after going down 14-0 early. The Mountaineers cut the deficit to 38-34 midway through the third stanza, but the Cowboys quickly answered with 17 consecutive points.

WVU’s defense has been atrocious all year long. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 121 in the country, surrendering 41.4 points per game. They score at a 40.0 PPG clip thanks to the play of Smith.

For the season, Smith has connected on 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,038 yards with an incredible 31/3 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is one of the nation’s elite WRs, bringing down 75 receptions for 1,055 yards and 16 TDs. Senior WR Tavon Austin has 95 catches for 975 yards and 11 TDs.

Oklahoma (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) has lost to two of the country’s four unbeaten teams with both defeats coming in Norman. The Sooners lost a 24-19 decision to Kansas St. and fell by a 30-13 count against Notre Dame.

Since the loss to the Fighting Irish, OU has won back-to-back games, including a 35-20 win at Iowa St. as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ two weeks ago. Landry Jones has 2,681 passing yards with an 18/7 TD-INT ratio.

WVU has only been a home underdog once under Holgorsen, losing 47-21 to LSU as five-point puppy last season. OU has a 2-1 spread record as a road favorite this year, but the Sooners are 6-9 ATS in such spots since 2009.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for both teams.