The Bum's Aug-Sept College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 5

Update

Saturday, September 29, 2012

(TC) Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech, 3:30 ET ESPNU
Cincinnati: 23-10 Under in weeks 5 through 9
Virginia Tech: 0-6 ATS off a win by 17+ points

Buffalo at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-7 ATS off a home loss
Connecticut: 26-11 ATS off a road loss

Penn State at Illinois, 12:00 ET ESPN
Penn State: 2-10 ATS away with a total of 42 point or less
Illinois: 6-0 Under off a straight up loss

Minnesota at Iowa, 12:00 ET ESPN2
Minnesota: 6-0 Under off BB ATS wins
Iowa: 0-6 ATS playing on artificial turf

(TC) Texas Tech at Iowa State, 7:00 ET
Texas Tech: 11-3 Over away on Saturdays
Iowa State: 13-4 ATS at home after allowing 14 points or less

(TC) Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 ET ESPN2
Clemson: 17-4 Under off a road conference loss
Boston College: 3-11 ATS in the first half of the season

(TC) Louisiana Tech at Virginia, 3:30 ET
Louisiana Tech: 9-0 ATS in road games
Virginia: 7-0 Under in home games

(TC) Ohio U at Massachusetts, 3:30 ET
Ohio U: 4-1 ATS off 3+ games allowing 125 or less rushing yards
Massachusetts: 1-3 ATS in games played on turf

Ball State at Kent State, 12:00 ET
Ball State: 7-0 ATS playing on artificial turf
Kent State: 6-16 ATS with a total of 49.5 to 56 points

(TC) Idaho at North Carolina, 3:30 ET
Idaho: 20-8 Over away off a home game
North Carolina: 16-31 ATS at home off a non-conference game

Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 ET BTN
Indiana: 8-1 Over as an underdog
Northwestern: 1-10 ATS at home off a win by 21+ points

(TC) Marshall at Purdue, 3:15 ET BTN
Marshall: 8-20 ATS away in September
Purdue: 7-0 Under at home with a total of 63.5 to 70 points

(TC) Duke at Wake Forest, 12:30 ET
Duke: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points
Wake Forest: 7-0 Under with a total of 56.5 to 63 points

(TC) South Carolina at Kentucky, 7:00 ET ESPN2
South Carolina: 6-0 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Kentucky: 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points

Colorado State at Air Force, 2:00 ET
Colorado State: 0-6 ATS playing on artificial turf
Air Force: 8-0 Over off 3+ games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

(TC) TCU at SMU, 7:00 ET
TCU: 19-4 ATS off BB Unders
SMU: 6-0 Under off a home game

(TC) Central Michigan at Northern Illinois, 3:30 ET
Central Michigan: 2-9 ATS as an underdog
Northern Illinois: 12-3 ATS at home after forcing 0 turnovers

(TC) UCLA at Colorado, 6:00 ET
UCLA: 16-4 Under off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Colorado: 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points

San Jose State at Navy, 3:30 ET CBSN
San Jose State: 9-1 Under off a combined score of 70+ points
Navy: 6-0 ATS off a home win

(TC) Oregon at Washington State, 10:30 ET ESPN2
Oregon: 10-2 ATS off BB home wins by 14+ points
Washington State: 7-0 Over in September

(TC) Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:50 ET FOX
Texas: 1-5 ATS off a road win
Oklahoma State: 6-0 ATS off BB Overs

(TC) Arkansas at Texas A&M, 12:20 ET
Arkansas: 10-2 ATS off BB Overs
Texas A&M: 1-6 ATS off a non-conference game

(TC) Baylor at West Virginia, 12:00 ET FX
Baylor: 0-6 ATS away with a total of 63+ points
West Virginia: 10-1 Over after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

Ohio State at Michigan State, 3:30 ET ABC
Ohio State: 0-8 ATS off a home win
Michigan State: 6-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Tennessee at Georgia, 3:30 ET CBS
Tennessee: 0-6 ATS as an underdog
Georgia: 7-0 Over at home in September

(TC) Arizona State at California, 4:00 ET FX
Arizona State: 6-0 Over off a conference win by 10+ points
California: 15-34 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

(TC) Oregon State at Arizona, 10:00 ET
Oregon State: 7-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Arizona: 8-20 ATS at home after scoring 14 points or less

(TC) Mississippi at Alabama, 9:15 ET ESPN
Mississippi: 1-8 ATS off a road game
Alabama: 12-3 Under in home games

(TC) Miami OH at Akron, 2:00 ET
Miami OH: 14-3 ATS with a total of 56.5 to 63 points
Akron: 12-2 Over off BB ATS wins

(TC) Missouri at Central Florida, 12:00 ET
Missouri: 31-16 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
Central Florida: 21-7 Under in September

UTEP at East Carolina, 7:00 ET
UTEP: 13-26 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
East Carolina: 33-17 ATS off a loss by 17+ points

(TC) NC State at Miami FL, 12:00 ET ESPNU
NC State: 8-1 Under after allowing 14 points or less
Miami FL: 13-4 ATS off a SU win as an underdog

(TC) Florida State at South Florida, 6:00 ET ESPN
Florida State: 11-3 Under off BB conference games
South Florida: 3-12 ATS in home games

Toledo at Western Michigan, 7:00 ET
Toledo: 4-14 ATS away off 3+ wins
Western Michigan: 10-2 Over off BB non-conference games

(TC) Nevada at Texas State, 2:00 ET
Nevada: 7-1 ATS off 3+ games with 275+ rushing yards
Texas State: **No Trends Available**

(TC) Louisville at Southern Miss, 8:00 ET CBSSN
Louisville: 10-2 ATS in road games
Southern Miss: 21-8 Under off a road loss

Texas San Antonio at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET
Texas SA: **No Trends Available**
New Mexico State: 10-25 ATS off a home loss

Wisconsin at Nebraska, 8:00 ET ABC
Wisconsin: 0-6 ATS away playing on artificial turf
Nebraska: 6-1 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

(TC) Tulsa at UAB, 3:00 ET
Tulsa: 6-0 Under off an ATS loss
UAB: 7-0 ATS off BB losses

UNLV at Utah State, 8:00 ET
UNLV: 1-13 ATS in road games
Utah State: 7-1 ATS playing on artificial turf

(TC) Houston vs. Rice, 3:30 ET
Houston: 6-0 Under after allowing 37+ points
Rice: 0-6 SU away after losing 3 of their last 4 games

(TC) Boise State at New Mexico, 6:00 ET
Boise State: 6-0 ATS away off a non-conference game
New Mexico: 1-6 ATS as a home underdog of 14.5+ points

San Diego State at Fresno State, 10:00 ET
San Diego State: 0-6 ATS after gaining 475+ total yards
Fresno State: 8-0 ATS playing on artificial turf


Added Games

(TC) Western Kentucky at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET
Western Kentucky: 9-0 ATS off BB ATS wins
Arkansas State: 0-7 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards

(TC) Troy at South Alabama, 3:30 ET
Troy: 16-5 Over away in September
South Alabama: 4-0 ATS as an underdog

(TC) Florida International at Louisiana Lafayette, 7:00 ET
Florida Int: 13-28 ATS off an Under
LA Lafayette: 8-0 ATS off a loss by 17+ points

(TC) North Texas at Florida Atlantic, 5:00 ET
North Texas: 6-0 Under off BB losses
Florida Atl: 1-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

(TC) Middle Tennessee State at Georgia Tech, 12:00 ET
Mid Tenn State: 26-12 Over off a straight up win
Georgia Tech: 13-3 ATS at home after committing 0 turnovers

(TC) Louisiana Monroe at Tulane, 3:30 ET
LA Monroe: 11-2 Over off a SU loss / ATS win


(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Saturday's Games

Top Games
Home team covered 11 of last 14 Arizona State-Cal tilts, with ASU 0-5 vs spread in last five visits here, losing last four by 10+ points. Cal won last four series games overall, scoring 50-47 points last two years. ASU has been terrific at home, beating Illinois/Utah by 31-30 points, but they lost 24-20 in only road game, at Missouri. Cal i 0-3 vs D-I teams, losing at home to Nevada, but they also lost just 35-28 at Ohio St, and lost at 27-9, respectable games (outgained OSU by 100 yards). Bears are 17-4 as a home favorite since '08. ASU is 5-3-1 in last nine game as road dogs. Cal's only win this season is over I-AA Southern Utah.

Oregon State off to unusually fast start, beating Wisconsin/UCLA; they won 11 of last 13 games with Arizona, winning five of last six visits to Tucson, winning last two by 2 points each. Underdog has won SU in last four series games. Since '08, Beavers are 12-6 as road underdogs. Arizona lost 49-0 at Oregon last week; when they beat Oklahoma State 59-38 in their best game so far, Wildcats gave up 636 TY. This is Oregon State's third game of year; fifth game for Arizona, which is 12-8 as a home fave the last 4+ years. Arizona is still learning RichRod's system; Riley was a pro (NFL-CFL-USFL) coach, so edge to Oregon State there.

Since '09, Central Florida is 12-6 vs spread as home faves; they're 20-11 vs spread in their new stadium; always big deal for C-USA clubs when a BCS school visits. Missouri lost its first two SEC games by 21 points each; SEC teams are just 10-18 vs spread out of conference this year, 0-3 as an underdog; C-USA teams are 11-20, 2-4 as favorites. Mizzou failed to cover last three tries as road underdogs; favorites are 14-8 vs spread in their last 22 away games. UCF was outgained 411-352 in their only loss, at Ohio State; Knights had last week off after beating FIU- they were up 35-0/23-0 at halftime in their two wins.

Miami allowed 40 ppg in winning two of three road games vs I-A foes; they were up 19-0 last week, then allowed 36 straight points to Georgia Tech, before rallying to win weird game in OT. Miami allowed 808 yards on ground in last three games, including 233 to I-AA Bethune-Cookman, so they're hurting severely on defense. Teams are meeting for first time since '08. Wolfpack got whacked by Tennessee on neutral field, then beat UConn 10-7, before beating couple of stiffs last two weeks. Senior QB Glennon is completing 63% of passes. Miami goes to Notre Dame next week, Wolfpack plays Florida State, but this game is just as big.

Nebraska (+10) went to Madison and got crushed 48-17 in its Big Dozen debut last season, with Russell Wilson-led Badgers having great balance, gaining 231 rushing yards, 255 passing. Wilson is in Seattle now, and the Badgers are struggling with several new assistant coaches, with wins over Northern Iowa (26-21), Utah State (16-14), UTEP (37-26) unimpressive at best. Cornhuskers put up huge numbers running ball so far, but lost to only decent team they played (UCLA 36-30) with Bruins running ball for 344 yards, passing for 309. Nebraska is 13-16 as home favorite with Pelini, but 2-0 this year, beating UM 49-20, Arkansas State 42-13.

San Diego State (-8) beat Fresno State 35-28 in season finale LY, after falling behind 21-0 early on; this is conference game now, with Bulldogs joining MWC. Fresno scored two defensive TDs in 27-26 loss last week at Tulsa, but missed PATs after both scores, which made the difference. Aztecs lost 38-34 at home to San Jose State; maybe more alarming was game week before, when they beat I-AA North Dakota 49-41, Fighting Sioux were 27-50/434 passing. Figures that Fresno should be able to hang up big numbers vs same defense. Home favorites are 14-14 vs spread in conference play nation-wide, so far this season.

Other Notes
-- Cincinnati covered once in last six games as road underdog.
-- Clemson is 3-6 vs spread in game following last nine losses.
-- Ohio U covered nine of last 13 conference road games.

-- Idaho covered 13 of last 19 non-conference games.
-- Boise State covered 15 of last 21 as a road favorite.
-- Wake Forest covered eight of last 12 as a home favorite.

-- Air Force covered twice in last 13 games as a home favorite.
-- Home side covered five of last six Northern Illinois-Central Michigan tilts. Chippewas are off their upset of Iowa last week.
-- UCLA covered only seven of last 22 Pac-12 road games.

-- Alabama won eight in row vs Ole Miss, but Rebels covered five of the eight games.
-- Dysfunctional Arkansas covered last six games vs Texas A&M.
-- Underdog covered seven of last nine Indiana-Northwestern games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Week 5

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Baylor at West Virginia: What bettors need to know
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Baylor at West Virginia (-11, 82.5)

Fans of the Washington Redskins and the University of West Virginia may be the only ones not lamenting the fact that Robert Griffin III opted to leave the college game following his junior year. No. 24 Baylor could certainly use the star quarterback as it prepares for a Big 12 Conference matchup with Geno Smith and No. 7 West Virginia on Saturday. Smith has been spectacular in leading the Mountaineers to a 3-0 start and is among the front-runners to succeed Griffin as the Heisman Trophy winner. Baylor moved into the Top 25 following last week's win at Louisiana-Monroe and is actually averaging four more points than West Virginia (51.3 to 47.3). The conference opener for both teams will also be the first matchup between the schools.

TV: Noon ET, FX.

LINE: West Virginia -11, O/U 82.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies at Mountaineer Field. Winds will be light out of the north.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Nearly 58 percent of players are on West Virginia.

ABOUT BAYLOR (3-0): Despite losing Griffin and first-round pick wide receiver Kendall Wright, Baylor owns the second-longest active winning streak in the FBS at nine games - second only to TCU (11) - and needs one more victory to tie the all-time school record set in 1936-37. Senior quarterback Nick Florence leads the nation in total offense, averaging 387.7 yards per game, and has tossed 11 scoring passes versus four interceptions. The Bears have scored at least 45 points in seven straight games after overcoming an early 14-0 deficit at Louisiana-Monroe, a team that has already beaten Arkansas and pushed Auburn to the wire. Defense has been a huge issue for Baylor, which is surrendering nearly 493 yards per game. Only eight FBS schools have yielded more.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (3-0): The Mountaineers came back to earth a bit in last week's 31-21 victory over Maryland after amassing 111 points in their first two victories. Smith threw for 363 yards and three scoring passes despite not playing without leading rusher Shawne Alston, who missed virtually the entire game with a thigh bruise. Smith has thrown for 1,072 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions while connecting on 81.4 percent of his passes. He has dangerous threats in wide receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, who each have five touchdown receptions. Austin had 13 receptions for 179 yards and three scoring passes against Maryland. His 13 catches tied a school record set by Bailey the previous week against James Madison.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
*Over is 4-0 in Bears’ last four September games.
*Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven September games.
*Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers’ last five September games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. West Virginia is 9-1 in its last 10 homecoming games.

2. The Bears, who are playing the first of three straight Top 25 teams, have never beaten a ranked conference opponent on the road (0-25).

3. Baylor coach Art Briles and West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen were assistants on Texas Tech's staff from 2000-2002.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, September 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida State - 12:00 PM ET Florida State -16 500
South Florida - Under 53.5 500

Clemson - 12:00 PM ET Clemson -6.5 500
Boston College - Under 59.5 500

Louisiana Tech - 12:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -3 500
Virginia - Over 60 500

Virginia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Cincinnati +6.5 500
Cincinnati - Over 46.5 500

North Carolina State - 12:00 PM ET North Carolina State +2 500
Miami - Under 56.5 500

Buffalo - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut -17 500
Connecticut - Over 44 500

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern -11 500
Northwestern - Under 59.5 500

Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET Texas A&M -13 500
Texas A&M -

Baylor - 12:00 PM ET Baylor +11 500
West Virginia - Under 83 500

Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Illinois -1.5 500
Illinois - Over 41.5 500

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Missouri +2 500
Central Florida - Over 48.5 500

Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET Minnesota +6.5 500
Iowa - Over 45 500

Ball State - 12:00 PM ET Ball State -2.5 500
Kent State - Under 54 500

Duke - 12:30 PM ET Wake Forest -1.5 500
Wake Forest - Under 60 500

Nevada - 2:00 PM ET Texas State +18.5 500
Texas State - Under 64 500

Colorado State - 2:00 PM ET Colorado State +14.5 500
Air Force - Under 58.5 500

Tulsa - 3:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +16 500
Alabama-Birmingham - Under 59 500

Miami (Ohio) - 3:00 PM ET Akron +2 500
Akron - Under 60.5 500

Marshall - 3:15 PM ET Purdue -16 500
Purdue - Under 63 500

Troy - 3:30 PM ET Troy -7.5 500
South Alabama - Under 50.5 500

Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET Georgia -13.5 500
Georgia - Under 58 500

Ohio State - 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -2 500 Michigan State - Under 41.5 500

Idaho - 3:30 PM ET Idaho +27.5 500
North Carolina - Under 61.5 500

Houston - 3:30 PM ET Rice +8 500
Rice - Over 73 500

San Jose State - 3:30 PM ET San Jose State -2.5 500
Navy - Under 59 500

UL Monroe - 3:30 PM ET UL Monroe -20 500
Tulane - Under 51.5 500

Ohio - 3:30 PM ET Ohio -24 500
Massachusetts - Under 55 500

Central Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Central Michigan +10 500
Northern Illinois - Over 58.5 500

Arizona State - 4:00 PM ET Arizona State -1 500
California - Under 57 500

North Texas - 5:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +7 500
Florida Atlantic - Under 49.5 500

UCLA - 6:00 PM ET Colorado +20 500
Colorado - Under 59.5 500

Boise State - 6:00 PM ET New Mexico +25.5 500
New Mexico - Over 50.5

[BadgerJoe]

SDB any opinion on the late NCAAF?

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Plays:

Texas Tech - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech -1 500
Iowa State - Over 63.5 500

South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET South Carolina -20 500
Kentucky - Under 51.5 500

Texas El Paso - 7:00 PM ET Texas El Paso +4 500
East Carolina - Under 48.5 500

Florida International - 7:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -6.5 500
UL Lafayette - Under 54 500

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -1.5 500
Arkansas State - Under 57.5 500

Texas Christian - 7:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +13.5 500
Southern Methodist - Under 52 500

Toledo - 7:00 PM ET Toledo +1 500
Western Michigan - Under 57 500

Middle Tennessee 49 Final Middle Tennessee +24.5 500
Georgia Tech 28 Under 63 500

Texas - 7:50 PM ET Texas -2 500
Oklahoma State - Under 63.5 500

Louisville - 8:00 PM ET Louisville -11 500
Southern Mississippi - Under 48 500

Wisconsin - 8:00 PM ET Wisconsin +12 500
Nebraska - Over 51 500

Texas-San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Texas-San Antonio -1.5 500
New Mexico State - Under 56 500

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET Utah State -20.5 500
Utah State - Over 57.5 500

Mississippi - 9:15 PM ET Alabama -30.5 500
Alabama - Over 52 500

Oregon State - 10:00 PM ET Arizona -3 500
Arizona - Under 58 500

San Diego State - 10:00 PM ET Fresno State -7 500
Fresno State - Under 61.5 500

Oregon - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -30.5 500
Washington State - Under 73.5