The Bum's NFL Week # 7 Best Bets !

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Green Bay Packers only unbeaten NFL football team

October 18, 2011 3:00 AM

Six weeks into the 2011NFL football season finds just one unbeaten team – the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.

The only other unbeaten team heading into last week, the Detroit Lions, lost a very entertaining and emotionally charged contest against San Francisco in what could result in a January rematch.

Both the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are 5-1.

San Francisco appears to be far and away the best team in the weak NFC West. Detroit Lions, if unable to overtake the Green Bay Packers, seems well positioned to earn a Wild Card if continuing the progress shown thus far.

Miami returned from its bye last week to face the Jets on Monday night as the Dolphins were looking for their first win of the season following four losses.

Two other teams did remain winless this past Sunday as Indianapolis and St Louis each lost road games. Losing in Cincinnati, the Colts fell to 0-5. Returning from a bye, the Rams were defeated in Green Bay.

Philadelphia got a much needed win on the road in Washington as the Eagles ended a four game losing streak to enter their bye week at 2-4, last in the NFC East.

Scoring took a modest dip with last Sunday’s dozen games averaging "just" 41.0 points per game after the first 5 weeks had averaged 46.3 ppg. There were 9 UNDERS and just 3 OVERS which narrowed the gap for the season, heading into Monday night, to just 13 (50-37 in favor of OVERS).

Ignoring those pushes, the OVER is hitting at a 57.5 percent clip.

The odds makers have done a pretty good job thus far of keeping results close to 50-50. Home favorites are 27-27-2 ATS thus far and home underdogs 17-13-2. The lone home pick’em game this season lost.

Six teams again have byes this week as Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, the New York Giants, Philadelphia and San Francisco will be idle.

Here’s a look at the 13 games that will be played including the 2011 version of the London Bowl with Tampa Bay and Chicago crossing the pond.

SUNDAY

Bears PK vs Bucs (43): Tampa makes its second appearance in this game as the Bucs lost 35-7 to New England in 2009. Neither team is explosive on offense and both have been significantly less productive on the road. The travel combined with the constant threat of rain and both offenses’ reliance more on the run than the pass suggests points will be more scarce than expected. UNDER.

Redskins +3 at Panthers (44): Carolina was game in last week’s loss at Atlanta and lost to the spread for just the first time this season. The Panthers have been more productive on offense while the Redskins have fared better on defense, especially against the pass. Washington has also played well on the road, winning at St Louis and losing by just 2 at Dallas. The FG is an attractive option. REDSKINS.

Chargers +2 at Jets (45): San Diego is off a bye while the Jets hosted division rival Miami last Monday night. The Jets still have had problems rushing the football and with the second best quarterback in this game are at a disadvantage. Their defense has played well but below the level of last season. CHARGERS.

Seahawks +3 at Browns (40): There are QB concerns for the Seahawks as starter Tarvaris Jackson was injured in the Giants win. Both teams have been below average on offense, especially in running the football, which should pressure on both teams’ passing attacks. The Browns have scored over 17 points just once and have played well against the pass. UNDER.

Texans +3 at Titans (44): The Titans return from their bye looking to rebound from a one sided loss at Pittsburgh. The Texans are likely to still be without WR Andre Johnson. QB Matt Schaub was banged up in the loss to the Ravens but is expected to play. The defense, without Mario Williams, allowed over 400 yards to the Ravens. TITANS.

Broncos +3 at Dolphins (42½): Denver is off of a bye and will start Tim Tebow at QB. However, their leading receiver, Brandon Lloyd, was just traded to St. Louis. Miami is off Monday night’s game at the Jets and with Matt Moore likely making his second start at QB after Chad Henne was placed on injured reserve. This figures to be a low scoring game. UNDER.

Falcons +4 at Lions (48½): With coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons have been a much better team at home than on the road. The Lions are averaging over 30 points per game at home this season and will be facing a far more permissive defense in Atlanta than they faced against San Francisco last week. LIONS.

Chiefs +3½ at Raiders (42½): After going 6-0 in division games last season, Oakland has won their lone AFC West game this season against Denver. The Raiders must find a replacement for starting QB Jason Campbell. After starting 0-3, Kansas City won two straight prior to the bye week. The ground game should play a big role. UNDER.

Steelers -3½ at Cardinals (42½): Arizona is rested following the bye which should have enabled more work for QB Kevin Kolb who has been less than impressive with his new team. The Steelers are banged up with the latest injury to safety Troy Polamalu, expected to be at less than full strength this week. The Cards have a real chance to pull the upset. CARDS.

Rams +10½ at Cowboys (44½): St. Louis has not scored more than 16 points in any of its five games, averaging just 9.8 per game. Dallas has played much better than its 2-3 record suggests and out yarded each of its five foes this season. Cowboys and Tony Romo are in a favorable spot to take out frustrations on a Rams team that appears incapable of trading points. COWBOYS.

Packers -8 at Vikings (47): The woes continue for Minnesota as they made a mid game QB change on Sunday from veteran Donovan McNabb to rookie Christian Ponder. Green Bay continues to look like the most complete team in the NFL and has more weapons despite being on the road at a hated division rival the Packers have more weapons. And the Green Bay defense will be formidable. PACKERS.

Colts +14 at Saints (48): The Colts passing offense is starting to show improvement behind backup QB Curtis Painter although the running game remains inept. Still, the Saints have defensive vulnerabilities and should they get out to a big lead there could be opportunities for the Colts to put points on the board in the fourth quarter. The Total appears to be a much better option in this one than the side. OVER.

MONDAY

Ravens -7½ at Jaguars (39): The early money has come in on the home team. It might be due to this being the Jags last home game until after Thanksgiving, with three road games and a bye on deck. Although the Jacksonville offense has been poor, the defense has played rather well. The late money should come in on Baltimore, which should provide added value on the home underdog. JAGUARS.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 7

Bears (3-3) vs Buccaneers (4-2) (London)—Bears scored 30-34-39 points in their three wins, with a TD on defense or special teams in all three games- they scored 13-17-13 in losses. Bucs were outscored 41-3 in first half of their two road games this season- five of their six games were decided by 7 or less points. Chicago is 10-4-1 vs number in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points; Tampa Bay is 3-7-2 in its last 12. Teams used to be division rivals; Bucs are 3-2 in series since then, with last three meetings all decided by 3 points, the last two going OT. Bucs are 19-13 vs spread in game following their last 32 wins; Bears are 7-6 after their last 13 wins, but 0-2 this year. NFC North teams are 10-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South teams are 8-8. Bears are 3-6 in last nine pre-bye games (2-4 last six as pre-bye favorite); Bucs lost 35-7/38-13 in last two pre-bye games (2-7 last nine as pre-bye dog).

Redskins (3-2) @ Panthers (1-5) – Who gets starting nod at QB for Washington after Grossman’s 9-22, 4-INT nightmare Sunday? Carolina allowed 28+ points in all five losses; their only win came on rainy day here, only game they’ve been favored to win this year. Panthers are 7-3-1 vs spread last 11 times they were favored by 3 or less points; their defense is having trouble getting off field- opponents converted 19 of last 28 3rd down plays. Home side won last six series games, with Redskins losing 20-17/20-17 in last two visits here, their only losses in nine series games (eight of nine decided by 4 or less points). Carolina lost 21-7/23-6 in last two pre-bye games- they’re 0-5-1 as a pre-bye favorite. NFC East road teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South home teams are 5-3, home favorites 3-2. Last four Washington games stayed under total, with totals of 34-27 in two road games; four of six Panther games went over.

Seahawks (2-3) @ Browns (2-3)—Mike Holmgren runs the Browns now; he ran Seahawk franchise for long time before that, so this game probably has little extra in it for Cleveland. Seattle is 7-20 vs spread in its last 27 games as road dog (3-7 if road dog of 3 or less points), 5-17 in its last 22 post-bye games- they covered last three games as an underdog, after losing first two games by combined score of 57-17. Hawks came east and upset the Giants before the bye- they have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), none in three losses (-5). Browns scored 17-13-17 points in last three games, needing last-minute TD to beat the dreadful Dolphins; they’re 7-12-1 vs spread in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Cleveland has been outrushed in every game, by average of 50.2 yards- they’re 2-9 in last 11 games as home favorite, 0-3 this season. 6.0/5.4/5.1/4.3. Seattle won two of three series games, but teams last met in ’07.

Chargers (4-1) @ Jets (3-3)--- Jets are 0-3 vs teams with winning records, giving up 30+ points in all three games, but all three were on road; offense has total of 405 yards last two weeks, converting just 7 of 26 on third down, so huge edge at QB for San Diego, which has held four of five opponents to 275 or less total yards (Patriots gained 504 against Bolts). Lot of subplots here, with Tomlinson going against old team and Schottenheimer coaching against team his dad used to coach—Chargers fired Marty despite his almost taking them to Super Bowl. San Diego won six of last eight post-bye games, covering three of last four as post-bye dog. Gang Green won last meeting 17-14 at San Diego in ’09 playoffs; they’ve won four of last six series meetings, with two of four wins in playoff games. Jets are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as favorite of 3 or less points, San Diego allowed 17 or less points in all three home games, but allowed 35-24 in two games on foreign soil.

Texans (3-3) @ Titans (3-2)—Big game for sliding Houston club that lost three of last four games and has been outscored in second half of every game this year (total of 72-37 in last four games); loss of stars on both sides of ball (WR Johnson/DE Williams) proved critical in winnable game at Baltimore last week. Favorite covered all three Houston road games; Texans are 0-2 as road dog, losing 40-33 at Saints (+4), 29-14 (+7) at Baltimore. Tennessee gave up 14 or less points in each of its three wins, 16-38 in its losses- they’ve already beaten Ravens/Broncos at home, allowing 13-14 points. Houston is 3-2 in last five series games, after having been 2-11 in first 13 meetings; Texans lost seven of nine visits here, with five of seven losses by 7+ points. Houston has been lost three of last four games, Tennessee is 6-3 in last nine games as divisional home favorite- they won four of last five post-bye games. Five of six Houston games stayed under the total.

Broncos (1-4) @ Dolphins (0-5)—Miami is incredible 6-29 vs spread in last 35 games as home favorite; they’re honoring 2008 Florida Gators here, team whose starting QB was Tebow, who gets his 4th career NFL start here for struggling Denver, which is 0-7 in Miami, with five of seven losses by 10+ points. Fish are 0-2 at home, losing by 14-10 points; 0-5 teams don’t have much of home field edge, especially when opposing QB is college hero from that area. Broncos allowed 22-17 points in its wins, 23-49-29 in losses- Miami hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of its last four games. Broncos are 3-6 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-1 this year (14-17 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Green Bay). Dolphins are favored for first time this season. Denver is 16-5 in its last 21 post-bye games; Fox was 5-1 in his last six post-bye games with Carolina. Four of five Denver games went over; last four Miami games stayed under.

Falcons (3-3) @ Lions (5-1)—Falcons have gone LWLWLW so far this year; they scored 30+ points in their wins, 12-13-14 in losses. Since 2008, they’re 6-7 as road underdogs. Detroit allowed 23+ points in three of last four games, and trailed all four at halftime. Atlanta is 1-2 on road, winning at Seattle, losing at Chicago/Tampa. Third straight home game for Lions, who were outrushed 203-66 last week and converted only 2 of 15 third down plays- they’re 26-31-2 in game following their last 59 losses. Falcons are 28-31-1 vs spread in game following their last 60 wins. Detroit is 6-4-1 in last 11 games as single digit favorite. Atlanta is 4-3 in last seven series games, after being 6-20 at one point; they’re 4-15 in Motor City, but this is their first visit since ’06. Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under total. NFC South road teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. N FC North home favorites are 5-3.

Chiefs (2-3) @ Raiders (4-2)—Oakland lost QB Campbell (collarbone) for season last week, traded for Carson Palmer Wednesday, which leaves Boller as starter for this game; he’s not good. Raiders are 5-2 in last seven series games, with three of five wins by 3 points- their OT win here LY was first time KC lost in last eight visits, and first time Oakland swept season series since ‘01. KC won last two games after 0-3 start, scoring 22-28 points vs Vikings/Colts (combined record, 1-11). Silver/Black allowed 38-31 points in only two losses (Bills/Patriots, combined record, 9-3); they’re just 3-10 in last 13 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. You’re reading ***************.com. Chiefs lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 11+ points. Raiders are 7-4 in last 11 pre-bye games- this is first time since ’05 they’re favored in pre-bye game (2-3 last five). Last three Oakland games stayed under the total; average total in last ten series games, 31.5.

Steelers (4-2) @ Cardinals (1-4)—When Pittsburgh hired Tomlin as coach, they passed over Steeler assistants Whisenhunt/Grimm, who went on to desert, where they won NFC in ’08 but lost Super Bowl in last minute to Steelers; this is their first meeting since. Cardinals lost last four games, three by four or less points- favorites covered Arizona’s last six post-bye games; Redbirds lost four of last five (0-4 as post-bye dog). Steelers are 1-2 on road, scoring 7-10 points in losses at Ravens/Texans, and slogging thru 23-20 win at Manning-less indy (trailed 13-10 at half). Pitt has only two takeaways this season, with an amazing (for a 4-2 team) minus-11 turnover ratio. Steelers are 11-17 in last 28 games as road favorites; Arizona is 9-4 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Redbirds are 1-1 at home, getting hosed by terrible non-fumble call at end of 31-27 loss to Giants. Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under total. NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1 vs spread in non-division games, 1-4-1 at home.

Rams (0-5) @ Cowboys (2-3)—Sad-sack St Louis been outscored 86-9 in first half of last four games; they’ve got guys coming in off street and starting at CB. Only one of their five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 6-7 vs spread in last 13 games as double digit dog. Last 11 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points- Pokes’ only wins this year were by 3-2 points; they’re 1-9-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite, 4-8 in last dozen games as double digit fave. Addition of WR Lloyd should help St Louis offense right away, since he played for McDaniels last two years in Denver. NFC East home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; NFC West underdogs are 6-9-1, 5-5 on foreign soil. Home team lost six of last eight series games, with Rams winning four of last five visits here, but impossible to endorse visitors until they at least compete for an entire 60-minute game.

Packers (6-0) @ Vikings (1-5)—Green Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 28-24/31-3 in LY’s series; average total in last five series games is 51.6, but just 44.3 in last five in Metrodome (Pack 5-3 in last eight visits). Rookie QB Ponder gets start for Vikings after dreadful 39-10 loss last week in Chicago; McNabb looks washed-up, so might as well find out if the kid can play. Minnesota is 1-5, but with only one loss by more than seven points; they’re 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as home underdog. Packers coasted last week, are 5-1 vs spread this year, 8-5 in last 13 games as road favorite- their only non-cover this year was at Carolina, when Panthers covered thru back door late. League-wide, home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in divisional games this season, but Vikings have been outscored in second half of every game this year (outscored by total of 100-29). Packers are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as pre-bye favorite.

Colts (0-6) @ Saints (4-2)—First series meeting since New Orleans won improbable Super Bowl title two years ago; this game was put in primetime because Peyton Manning is from Crescent City, but he ain’t playing- winless Colts are 1-2 as road dogs, losing at Houston (7-34, +8.5), Tampa (17-24, +10), Cincinnati (17-27, +7). Indy has actually been very competitive in every game but the opener, but they’ve worn down in second half, outscored 71-34 in second half of last five games. Saints are 13-9-1 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Texans (40-33)/Bears (30-13). Payton had broken leg/torn MCL operated on Monday, will call plays from press box, but he also missed two days of game-planning NFC south home teams are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 3-6 on road. Four of Colts’ last five games stayed under total. Red flag for Saints are four takeaways in six games- they haven’t had a game yet with 2+ takeaways.

Ravens (4-1) @ Jaguars (1-5)—Bully Ravens (four wins this year by 15+ points) against rookie QB playing on team that lost last five games, with three of five losses by 10+ points. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games after losing first eight to expansion Jags- they’re still just 2-5 in last seven visits here, with last win 10 years ago, and over last decade are just 5-10 as non-divisional road favorite. Ravens have superior record in game after bye, but last four years, they lost second game after the bye. Jags scored 13 or less points in four of five losses (five TD’s, 26 3/outs on 58 drives); they’re 10-19 vs spread in game after their last 29 losses. Ravens are 23-17-2 vs spread in game after their last 42 wins. Baltimore is allowing 76.6 rushing yards/game, held last three foes to 3.6./3.0/4.9 yards/pass attempt. Jaguars have been held under 4.0 ypa in three of last five games. Five of six Jacksonville games stayed under total; four of five Raven games went over, with Baltimore scoring 35-37-34-29 in its wins.

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Week 7 Preview: Chiefs at Raiders

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-3)

at OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -4.5, Total: 41.5

Former Bengals QB Carson Palmer makes his Oakland debut when his new team hosts surging Kansas City on Sunday.

Palmer, who was acquired for two draft picks, is expected to start under center despite having been retired all year. The Raiders felt forced to make this bold move after QB Jason Campbell suffered a broken collarbone in last week’s win versus Cleveland. But the reason the Raiders will win this game is because of their rushing attack (160 YPG, 2nd in NFL) led by Darren McFadden. The Chiefs have gotten better performances from QB Matt Cassel in their past two games (both victories), helping to make up for the Week 1 loss of RB Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs once enjoyed traveling west to Oakland, going 13-5 SU (14-4 ATS) in the past 18 road meetings, but the Raiders are 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven matchups overall, including last season’s sweep. The pick here is OAKLAND to win and cover.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Raiders:

KANSAS CITY is 6-22 ATS (21.4%, -18.2 Units) in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.3, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*).

After being held to less than 175 net passing yards in its first three games, K.C. has surpassed 240 in its two wins. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just once during their three-game ATS win streak, with Cassel throwing 7 TD and 1 INT during this run. He could have another big day against an Oakland pass defense allowing 284 passing YPG (fifth-worst in NFL). WR Dwayne Bowe has been huge this season with 403 yards and four touchdowns in his past four games. RB Jackie Battle has been dealing with a sore neck, but he’s expected to start on Sunday. In the last game, Battle rushed for 119 yards on 19 carries (6.3 YPC). Fullback Le’Ron McClain is also dealing with a neck injury, but he is also expected to be in uniform.

Although Palmer came to Oakland with a heavy price tag, his career record as starter in the NFL is a subpar 46-51. He will likely be eased into the offense, meaning McFadden will have a heavier workload than usual. McFadden leads the NFL with 610 rushing yards after gaining 91 yards with a TD in last week’s win versus Cleveland. McFadden had 114 total yards in his only game against the Chiefs last year, and considering K.C. ranks 21st in rushing defense (120 YPG), he should have another huge game. The Raiders defense has done a tremendous job stuffing the run in the past two weeks, allowing only 135 yards (2.9 YPC) to Houston and Cleveland. However, Oakland suffered some tough news this week as DE Matt Shaughnessy was placed on IR due to his shoulder injury. Shaughnessy had 56 tackles and seven sacks last season.

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Week 7 Preview: Bears vs. Buccaneers

CHICAGO BEARS (3-3)

vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-2)


Wembley Stadium - London, England
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 43.5

Former NFC North foes renew their rivalry across the pond when Chicago and Tampa Bay meet Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

Both teams put together impressive home wins last week, as the Bears crushed the Vikings and the Bucs edged the surging Saints. Tampa Bay has been playing up or down to the level of their opponents all year, and considering its jet-lagged blowout loss in San Francisco in Week 5, a trip to London doesn’t necessarily bode well for them. The Bears tend to surprise due to their superior defense and Devin Hester-led special teams, but it’s the fact that the Bucs don’t have the talent to exploit their biggest weakness—the offensive line—that bodes well for CHICAGO to win this game.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Bears:

Play Against - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. (130-70 since 1983.) (65%, +53 units. Rating = 3*).

The Bears (2-4 ATS) have been highly inconsistent this year, which may have a lot to do with the off-field issues with this team. LB Lance Briggs and RB Matt Forte are still unhappy with their contract situations, and S Chris Harris demanded a trade after he was benched last week. In its three victories, Chicago has scored 103 points, tallying at least 30 in all three contests. But in the three defeats, the Bears have averaged 14.3 PPG and have not surpassed 17 points in any of the losses.

Despite Forte’s unhappiness with Chicago’s front office, he has used that anger to his advantage, leading the NFL with 908 total yards (527 rushing, 381 receiving). QB Jay Cutler is also having a strong season, throwing 74 straight passes without an interception. Although he’s been sacked 19 times (2nd in NFL), Cutler only sustained one sack in last week’s win against Minnesota’s usually strong pass rush. Cutler threw for 267 yards and 2 TD against the Vikings, giving him 246 passing YPG, 8 TD and 4 INT this season.

The young Bucs have some experience in the London game; they lost to the Patriots in Wembley Stadium, 35-7, in 2009. Tampa Bay showed its heart by beating New Orleans just seven days after getting crushed 48-3 in San Francisco. The Bucs will probably not have the services of RB LeGarrette Blount (knee) again this Sunday, but the team still rushed for 117 yards without him last week. Earnest Graham had 109 of those yards on just 17 carries, and he is averaging 6.8 YPC in his past three games. QB Josh Freeman had a tremendous afternoon against New Orleans, throwing for 303 yards and two scores. The defense could get a huge boost this Sunday with the likely return of DT Gerald McCoy who has been out with an ankle injury. Tampa Bay won the last meeting with Chicago in 2008, taking it 27-24 in overtime.

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Trending: East-West traveling

Through the first six weeks of the NFL season, there have been 22 games in which the road team had to travel two or more time zones either East or West.
There have been 10 games where the road team had to travel two or more time zones East. All but one of these games has kicked off at 1:00 p.m. The home team has been favored in all 10 of the games. The results are surprising:

Road teams are 7-3 ATS (70%) and 5-5 SU (50%). The 49ers alone are 3-0 both ATS and SU in these situations.

If you throw out the one 4:15 p.m. game (San Diego at New England), the numbers bump up to 7-2 ATS (78%) and 5-4 SU (56%).

A slight trend has developed with the totals in these games, as the Under is 6-4 (60%).

There have been 12 games where the road team had to travel two or more time zones West. All of these games have started at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. While the overall ATS record is a virtual wash at 5-6-1 (45%), a three-hour time difference has proven to be more difficult to overcome than a two-hour difference:

Road teams traveling two time zones West are 3-0-1 ATS and 1-3 SU.
Road teams traveling three time zones West are just 2-6 ATS (25%) and 3-5 SU.

The Over is 7-5 (58%) in all of these games, but the trend increases to 63% (5-3) Over in the games where the road team had to travel three times zone West.

Week 7 offers us a number of cross-country opportunities in either direction:
Heading East:
Denver at Miami, 1 p.m. EDT (2-hour difference)
Seattle at Cleveland, 1 p.m. EDT (3-hour difference)
San Diego at NY Jets, 1 p.m. EDT (3-hour difference)
The above study would tell you to play on DENVER, SEATTLE and SAN DIEGO.

Heading West:
Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 p.m. EDT (2-hour difference)
Pittsburgh at Arizona, 4:05 p.m. EDT (3-hour difference)
The above study would tell you to play on KANSAS CITY and ARIZONA.

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Week 7 Preview: Colts at Saints


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-6)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -14, Total: 48

It’s a Super Bowl XLIV rematch when New Orleans plays host to Indianapolis on Sunday night.

The Colts’ nightmare season rolls along, as they were unable to beat two seemingly beatable teams the past two weeks in Cincinnati and Kansas City. Even with Curtis Painter playing better than expected, Indianapolis has been unable to generate enough offense to compensate for a defense that’s among the league’s worst, giving up 23+ points in all six defeats. The Saints are coming off a loss in Tampa in an unusual game, as Drew Brees tossed three interceptions and head coach Sean Payton was forced to call plays while sitting on the bench after having suffered a broken leg on the sideline. Despite the Colts’ struggles to get in the win column, their past five defeats have all come by 10 points or less. And since 2009, New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when favored by double-digits. Expect INDIANAPOLIS to keep it close enough to cover the spread here.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the Colts:

NEW ORLEANS is 6-21 ATS (22.2%, -17.1 Units) in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1992. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.0, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 2*).

This four-star FoxSheets trends expects a shootout finishing OVER the total.

Sean Payton is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) off 2 straight division games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 29.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*).

Painter is certainly making strides this year, as he has thrown five touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts. He completed 23-of-34 passes (78%) in last week’s loss to Cincinnati, and did a great job getting Dallas Clark involved, as the big tight end caught six of the seven balls targeted for him. WR Reggie Wayne has not reached 80 receiving yards and has not scored a touchdown in five straight games. Indy ranks 28th in passing offense (201 YPG), but it also ranks 28th in rushing offense (84 YPG). Top RB Joseph Addai missed the last game with a hamstring injury, and he is questionable to return to the field on Sunday. The performance of the Colts run defense was encouraging last week, allowing just 94 yards on 31 carries (3.0 YPC) to the Bengals. This was quite an improvement from the 192 yards they allowed to Tampa Bay and the 194 yards given up to Kansas City in the prior two weeks.

New Orleans was working on a four-game win streak before losing 26-20 to Tampa Bay. Brees is averaging a whopping 359 passing YPG (2nd in NFL), but he also has eight interceptions in his past four contests. The Saints ran for a season-low 70 yards in Tampa, and have only one game with 120 rushing yards on the year. Rookie RB Mark Ingram has scored in each of the past two weeks, but has gained just 54 yards on 18 carries (3.0 YPC) during this span. Defensively the Saints have been average (14th against the run, 19th against the pass), partially due to a lack of turnovers. The team has only four takeaways in six games this season.

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Seattle Seahawks Trek To Cleveland's Dawg Pound

Despite rough starts to the season for both teams, either the Seattle Seahawks or Cleveland Browns will reach the .500 mark after they meet on Sunday. Seattle is coming off a bye and will have an extra week of preparation to attempt winning two straight road games for the first time in nearly four years.

The Seahawks (2-3) find themselves as 3-point underdogs according to the Don Best odds screen with the total sitting at 41 after opening at 40.

They are expected to start Charlie Whitehurst under center against the Browns (2-3) due to a pectoral injury suffered by quarterback Tavaris Jackson two weeks ago during a stunning 36-25 road victory against the New York Giants.

Whitehurst helped lead Seattle to the playoffs last year, going 1-1 in his previous two NFL starts. He played well in relief of Jackson following his injury against the Giants, completing 11 of 19 passes for 149 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

The official decision on who will start may not come until Sunday, but Whitehurst took all of the first-team snaps in practice on Wednesday.

The Seahawks are ranked No. 30 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and have been underdogs in all five of their previous games, including twice by double digits. They managed to pull off the straight-up win as 10-point dogs at New York and will now face a Cleveland team that is looking to avoid a third consecutive loss.

The 24th-ranked Browns lost 24-17 to the Oakland Raiders on the road last week, earning a push on the 7-point line by scoring a touchdown with 1:06 remaining depending on where bettors got action on the game. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy found wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi on the 12-yard scoring play as the team nearly rallied back from a 24-7 deficit at the end of the third quarter.

Seattle is not the only team in this matchup dealing with a key injury, as Browns running back Peyton Hillis strained his left hamstring in the first quarter against the Raiders. Hillis is listed as questionable on the injury report and would be replaced by Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya, who was signed on Tuesday to add depth to the position.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX.

The weather forecast for Cleveland on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 59 under partly cloudy skies after showers move through the area on Thursday and Friday.

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Tim Tebow Starts For Broncos At Miami Dolphins

Two teams breaking in new starting quarterbacks will square off Sunday when the winless Miami Dolphins host the Denver Broncos. The Dolphins (0-5) will be playing on a short week after losing on the road to the New York Jets 24-7 on Monday Night Football, and life at home has not been good either as they have dropped 11 of their past 12 games there.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS.

Miami is ranked No. 28 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and opened as a 3-point favorite against No. 26 Denver (1-4) according to the Don Best odds screen, with the total at 42 ½. Early betting on the Broncos and QB Tim Tebow has pushed the line down as low as Denver +1 at some sportsbooks while the total has risen to 43.

Tebow will be making his fourth career start and could not ask for a much better situation on the road playing in Sun Life Stadium, where he led the Florida Gators to the 2009 BCS national championship. He was given the opportunity to start following Kyle Orton’s ineffective stint in the first five games.

Orton threw eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions while losing two fumbles. Ironically, he was being pursued by the Dolphins prior to the season, but Denver was asking for too much and a deal never got done. Instead, Miami saw Chad Henne start the first four games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in a 26-16 road loss against the San Diego Chargers in Week 4.

Henne’s replacement, Matt Moore, did not play well against the Jets in his first start for his new team after coming over from the Carolina Panthers in the offseason. Moore failed to lead a touchdown drive despite being in the red zone three times in the first 17 minutes of the game. He completely ignored open receivers on two of those three drives, and also threw an interception in the end zone that was returned 100 yards for a touchdown by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis with 6:11 left in the first quarter.

The Dolphins are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, ranking 30th in points scored at 15 per game with just six touchdowns. They are not much better defensively, surrendering nearly 25.6 points per game, 27th in the league.

One of the teams worse on defense is the Broncos, who are allowing 28 points per game. Only the Kansas City Chiefs are giving up more points, and Denver will need to find a way to contain former wide receiver Brandon Marshall in his first game going against his old teammates. Marshall was Miami’s only real offensive threat against New York, tallying six catches for 109 yards. He was traded to the Dolphins prior to last season and will try to help them win for the eighth straight time in the series at home.

Denver will be without its top receiver in Brandon Lloyd, who was dealt to the St. Louis Rams on Monday for a 2012 conditional draft pick. Lloyd totaled 19 catches for 283 yards with the Broncos this season, although second-year player Demaryius Thomas hopes to make his season debut after missing the first five games due to injuries to his Achilles tendon and pinkie. Thomas was one of two first-round draft picks a year ago along with Tebow and also missed six games during his rookie campaign.

There is a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms moving through the Miami area on Sunday with the high temperature expected to reach 82.

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Detroit Lions Host Falcons Week 7 NFL Betting Clash

Potential playoff foes in the NFC duke it out on Motown on Sunday afternoon, and NFL betting fans can sink their teeth into the clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions.

Kickoff from Ford Field is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on FOX.

Atlanta (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) knows that it has to keep winning to keep up with the rest of the pack in the NFC South. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints have four wins already on the campaign, and dropping to 3-4 after this one would be devastating for Atlanta.

The Falcons enter this week at a paltry No. 16 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, which is a very average mark for a team that really should be anything but average.

Last year's squad went 13-3 and won the NFC South, and drafting Julio Jones after trading up in the first round of the NFL Draft was supposed to be the one piece to the puzzle that was missing to make this team remarkable. Instead, Matt Ryan and his offense have looked awfully mediocre on the season. The team is averaging just 336.2 YPG, No. 20 in the league, and the end result has been 22.5 PPG, No. 17 in the NFL.

The bright spot to the offense is Michael Turner, who has 499 rushing yards and 98 as a receiver in just six games.

Roddy White has underachieved dramatically based upon his expectations. He has 34 receptions for 373 yards and two scores.

Jones, who has 358 yards on the season, missed last week's win over the Carolina Panthers with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for this week's encounter.

We give the Lions (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) a lot of credit for the way that they have come out to start the season. They were beaten last week by the San Francisco 49ers, but the game was back and forth the entire way and could have easily ended with the hosts at 6-0.

The Lions are still ranked No. 7 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, behind just the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints amongst NFC teams.

The problem that Detroit had last week was the inability to close out the game. Jahvid Best is a nice running back to have for a burst out of the backfield, but he's not the bruising back that is needed to move the chains in crucial situations when the team is ahead in the fourth quarter.

Best has 390 rushing yards and 287 receiving yards, making him one of the most dynamic backs in football. But he's doubtful this week due to a concussion.

Atlanta's focus defensively is going to be on stopping Calvin Johnson. "Megatron" has 564 yards and nine touchdowns on the campaign, but he was held of the end zone in a game for the first time this season in last week's loss to San Fran.

Despite the defeat to the Niners, the Lions are still 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against conference foes.

All signs are pointing towards a high scoring game. Atlanta is 6-1-1 for 'over' bettors in its last eight road games, and it is 11-5-2 in its last 18 games for 'over' bettors overall. Detroit is 13-5-1 towards the 'over' in its last 19 games as well.

The last time these two teams met was in 2008, a game that the Falcons won at the Georgia Dome, 34-21.

Early NFL betting action has come in on the Falcons this week. They opened up favored by 4 ½-points, but that has since dropped to 3 ½. The total has dropped from 48 ½ to 47.

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Winless Colts At Saints For Sunday Night Football

The Sunday night game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts has a completely different feel from the last time they met.

New Orleans is a 14-point favorite at Don Best, a huge swing from when it upset (31-17) the Colts as 4 ½-point ‘dogs in the February 2010 Super Bowl. The NFL betting total is 48 points and kickoff from the Superdome will be at 8:20 p.m. (ET) on NBC.

The Colts (0-6 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) have fallen on hard times with quarterback Peyton Manning (neck) almost definitely out the whole season. Their streak of 9-straight, double-digit win seasons will officially be over soon, with a fight for the top pick in the draft a likely scenario.

Coach Jim Caldwell’s team has at least been competitive the last five games, with each decided by 10 points or less. Last week’s 27-17 loss at Cincinnati was a 3-point game late before a Carlos Dunlap 35-yard fumble recovery sealed the win and ‘cover’ of the 5-point spread.

The late touchdown also pushed the score ‘over’ the 40-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in Indianapolis’ last five games, scoring 19.4 PPG and allowing 25.8 PPG.

The defense has never been a strong suit even when contending for Super Bowls. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are still around to pressure the quarterback, with the pass defense ranked 18th (255.8 YPG) and run defense ranked 30th (136.7 YPG).

Quarterback Curtis Painter will make his fourth-straight start after taking over for the ineffective Kerry Collins. Painter has five touchdowns versus one interception this year and a very respectable 93 QB rating. The running game could be missing Joseph Addai (hamstring) for the second-straight week, but the combo of Donald Brown and Delone Carter isn’t bad.

Look for New Orleans to try to stuff the running game and make the 26-year-old Painter prove he can throw it in the dome.

This is already the third night game for the Colts, with network executives likely screaming for a selection ‘do-over’ after the Manning injury. Indy did get its only two ‘covers’ at night, 23-20 vs. Pittsburgh as 10 ½-point ‘dogs and 24-17 at Tampa Bay as 10-point ‘pups.’

The Saints (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a scheduling nightmare, playing three road games in a row at Jacksonville, Carolina and Tampa Bay. The first two were wins, but they couldn’t make it a clean sweep, losing 26-20 after a late interception by Drew Brees in Tampa’s end-zone. The Bucs were extra motivated having just suffered a 48-3 loss at San Fran.

The 46 combined points scored last week went ‘under’ the 49 ½-point total. The ‘over’ and ‘under’ have alternated every week for New Orleans, a trend that would predict a high score Sunday.

New Orleans is also 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games following a straight-up loss.

Coach Sean Payton’s squad is still in good shape, tied for first in the NFC South. Payton himself could be better after having surgery for a torn MCL and fractured tibia suffered on the sidelines last week. He will call plays from a booth upstairs.

Brees will have a small adjustment not getting the plays directly from Payton, but through offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. The 32-year-old signal caller will be looking to rebound from his three interceptions last week, despite throwing for 383 yards. He has eight picks over the past four games.

New Orleans’ pass offense (344.3 YPG) is second in the NFL behind New England and its 29.5 PPG ranks sixth. The running game (107.8 YPG, ranked 18th) is secondary and rookie Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Third down back Darren Sproles has made everyone forget Reggie Bush at 7.4 yards per pop.

Indy cornerback Jerraud Powers (hamstring) is questionable, another potential reason to throw the ball.

The Saints haven’t played at home since September 25, a 40-33 win over Houston as 3 ½-point favorites. They also beat Chicago 30-13 as 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ in their only other home contest and are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall at the Superdome.

New Orleans can’t take Indianapolis too lightly. The team is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a losing record.

Saints tight end David Thomas (concussion), right tackle Zach Strief (knee) and linebacker Will Herring (hamstring) are all questionable. Weather is not a factor playing indoors.

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Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman checked into the DonBest.com studios once again to take a look at all of the latest topics in college football and the National Football League.

Looking back to last weekend, the top-10 teams in the nation are still giving the books a run for their money in college. In the NFL, 10 out of 13 games actually came in ‘under’ the posted total.

Fuhrman did touch on baseball a little bit as well now that the World Series has begun. While the St. Louis Cardinals had been 500/1 to win the title in September at some places, he stated about Caesars, “We made sure we stayed ahead of the curve.” The Cards took Game 1 at home over the Texas Rangers, 3-2.

Big games are on the slate for the eighth week of college action including the undefeated Oklahoma State Cowboys heading to Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers. Right now on the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, OSU is ranked No. 8 and they are favored by a touchdown on the road with the total set at a whopping 69½. Mizzou picked up their first win in the conference a week ago blowing out Iowa State.

South Bend, Indiana is a hot ticket for this Saturday as the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish welcome in their rival, the No. 23 USC Trojans. Caesars is showing Notre Dame as a 9½-point favorite with a total of 57½ on the Don Best odds screen. The Irish have won four games in a row since losing two at the beginning of their 2011 campaign.

Money is actually coming in against the No. 4 Stanford Cardinal this week as they are -20½ at home against the No. 21 Washington Huskies. Both the general public and the wise guys have found a little advantage taking the points with the Huskies in this game that is critical to the Pac-12 North standings.

Wembley Stadium is set for another NFL matchup in London and this season the fans in England will see the Chicago Bears taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The line at Caesars opened with the Bucs as a 1-point favorite but now the Bears are sitting at -1 and the total is 43½. It’s difficult to gauge how these teams will handle the long trip overseas especially after the division wins they each scored last week. Chicago trounced Minnesota 39-10 while Tampa held off the New Orleans Saints.

A big line move occurred in what might be the best matchup of the week between the San Diego Chargers and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. The Jets opened at -1½ but that has shifted to the Bolts being favored by two. Head coaches Norv Turner and Rex Ryan have gotten into a little war of words this week. Certainly that is something expected out of Ryan but for Turner, it is a bit out of character.

Christian Ponder will make his pro football debut as a starting QB now that Donovan McNabb has been benched in Minnesota. The Florida State product will have a tough task ahead as the Vikings are 9-point underdogs at home to the undefeated Green Bay Packers. Making your first start as a rookie against the defending Super Bowl champions is daunting, to put it mildly.

Finally, the matchup on Monday Night Football pits one of the best teams in the league against a struggling squad with a rookie under center. The Baltimore Ravens are -8 on the road for their AFC contest with the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Blaine Gabbert and the rest of the Jags offense will be completing a 3-game stretch facing the top-3 defenses in the NFL on Monday. By all accounts, this Ravens ‘D’ is the best in football.

The posted total of 39 for the Monday night game is the lowest in Week 7.

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Top 5 NFL Trends

STL
DAL Over is 9-0 in DAL last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

ATL
DET Over is 8-0 in DET last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

KC
OAK OAK are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC West.

IND
NO Over is 7-0-1 in IND last 8 games following a S.U. loss.

DEN
MIA Over is 7-0 in MIA last 7 games in Week 7.

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NFL Total Bias: Week 7 over/under picks

Patience doesn’t come easy in the world of pro football, or football gambling for that matter.

This week the Oakland Raiders gave us yet another perfect example of a team that at the first sign of success it has seen in years, put its future on the line to make a run of it this season.

A chance, because at this point, nobody really knows what Carson Palmer is. He could be a complete bust; he could lead the club to the playoffs.

I like the Raiders this season. They have a ton of potential with that backfield and they don’t really need their quarterback to do a whole lot in comparison to other teams in the league.

But as soon as I heard about the deal I instantly wondered whether the Packers (or the Patriots, Saints, Steelers or a handful of other teams) would have made the same move if they were in the same situation.

A lot has gone on in Raider Nation over the last month, but I think they acted too rashly in this situation. Think of the Steelers – Big Ben is always banged up and misses some time every year but nobody panics. They just roll the backup out under center and run the hell out of the ball.

You don’t think the Raiders could have done the same thing?

The NFL is all about instant gratification, with the amount of money each organization has on the line every week, each game, each play means a lot in the grand scheme of things. So, I can understand why the Raiders decided to strike why the iron is hot, but patience may have served them better – as it usually does for sports bettors.

Last week I jumped on the NFL over trend despite my suspicion that the tide was due to turn and sure enough, the under went 10-3 in Week 6. Guess we all need a little patience.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 42)

The latest rumor out of Oakland is that Palmer may actually start this weekend, which seems like the furthest thing from a patient approach.

Again, maybe Palmer works out in the long run and the reviews out of practice have been good this week, but if he does start he’ll have to be working with an extremely condensed playbook.

Expect a ton of McFadden coming out of the backfield mixed with some deep throws to Oakland’s speedy wideouts.

Kansas City struggles to put many points on the board at the best of times and five of the last six meetings between these two teams have played under the total.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 47.5)

Bad news out of Detroit this week: Jahvid Best’s concussion sounds like it’s much worse than originally thought.

He has had concussion problems dating back to college and now it has been reported that he is being urged to shut it down for the season. That’s a big problem for the Lions.

They don’t get a lot done on the ground, but Best is a huge big-play threat. Plus, the trade they swung to pick up Ronnie Brown was shut down by the league after Jerome Harrison was diagnosed with a brain tumor. That doesn’t leave much in Detroit’s running back stable.

This Lions offense is looking more like a one-trick pony all the time.

Pick: Under

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 43.5)

The NFL just has to get rid of these European adventures or at least schedule them better. At least both of these teams go on their byes in Week 8, but you have to worry about their preparation for this matchup.

Still both teams are coming off big wins. In Chicago, it seems like Mike Martz has finally realized that keeping two tight ends in on the line is a great way to make sure that Jay Cutler doesn’t get his head taken off.
Cutler repaid him by throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Josh Freeman had his best game of the season by firing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over New Orleans.

This matchup should give Londoners something to cheer about.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 9-9

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Palmer Makes Raiders Debut Against KC Chiefs

With a new quarterback at the helm, the Oakland Raiders are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs at home this Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s game will be televised nationally on CBS and is set to start at 4:05 p.m. (ET). Oakland is currently a 6-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

After losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell for at least six weeks with a collarbone injury, the Raiders knew they had to make a move to acquire a quarterback if they wanted to keep their playoff hopes alive. They did just that with a blockbuster trade this week, trading two high draft picks to the Cincinnati Bengals for the Carson Palmer.

Palmer demanded a trade following the end of the 2010 season, and said he would retire if Cincinnati didn't deal him. The Bengals finally honored his demand, a trade that was made easier by the fact rookie Andy Dalton is enjoying a solid season under center.

Oakland (4-2) will start Palmer right away, opting to go with him instead of current backup quarterback Kyle Boller. While Palmer has been keeping in shape in hopes that a trade like this one would come, he hasn’t taken live snaps since last year.

In a bit of bad news coming late in the week, reports Friday suggested that kicker Sebastian Janikowski may be out Sunday with a hamstring injury. Janikowski has been great for Oakland this season, converting on 12 of his 13 field goal attempts, including five of over 50 yards or more.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS this season.

Kansas City (2-3) started the year off terribly, losing Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles to injuries and suffering blowout losses to Buffalo and Detroit. But since then, the Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in their last three games and 2-0 SU in their last two with wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis.

The key to Sunday’s game for the Chiefs will be to contain Oakland’s running game. Oakland ranks second in the league with 160 yards rushing per game while Kansas City has struggled against the run this season, allowing 119.6 rushing yards per game. If the Chiefs can figure out a way to slow down Darren McFadden and force the rusty Carson Palmer to throw, they could pull off the upset.

This series has been split down the middle at 5-5 SU over the last five years, with Oakland holding the slight ATS edge at 6-4. Oakland has won three of the last four games against Kansas City both SU and ATS, including both contests last season.

With both teams’ tendencies to run the football, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 games between the Chiefs and Raiders. Recent total trends point to an ‘over’ however, with six of Kansas City’s last nine road games and five of Oakland’s last seven home games going above the number.

Sunday’s total is currently set at 41 ½.

In this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll, Oakland was ranked 11th along with the New York Jets and New York Giants while Kansas City was only ranked ahead of Jacksonville at No. 31.

It should be a great day in Oakland according to the weatherman, with mostly sunny skies and the afternoon high reaching the low-80s.

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Texans And Titans Battle For AFC South Lead

First place in the AFC South will be on the line on Sunday for Week 7 NFL betting action between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans. Kickoff from LP Field is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

This truly is a decisive week in the coaching career of Gary Kubiak. He knows that it is the playoffs or bust this year, and that likely means getting his Texans (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) in as the AFC South winner. In order to do that, one would like to think that at least salvaging a split against the Titans in the two regular season games is compulsory.

Injury problems are really starting to get severe for this team. Mario Williams is already on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle, and Dominique Barber, one of the three safeties that the team rotates, joined him this week on IR after being carted off the field in last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Andre Johnson has been out for two and a half games now, and he isn't likely to be in the fold this week either with his hamstring injury. The offensive line might not have Duane Brown (knee) or Antoine Caldwell (ankle), while the defense might be without DeMeco Ryans (quadriceps) or Danieal Manning (leg). All four players are considered questionable, while Johnson is listed as doubtful on this week's injury report.

Despite the injuries, the Texans still rank No. 8 in the league in total offense at 381.0 YPG, and they are significantly improved this year on defense at 328.7 YPG, No. 10 in the league.

Still, in the team's last two road games, Houston allowed a whopping 454 yards and 40 points in a loss to the New Orleans Saints and 402 yards and 29 points last week to the Ravens, numbers which just aren't good enough to win in this league.

The Titans (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off of their bye week, and they have the half-game lead in the division coming into this week.

It's still a bit of a mystery just how good this team is, as there have definitely been a mixed bag of results. The Titans were beaten by 21 in a game that they were never in against the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago, and they also are the only team that the Jacksonville Jaguars have beaten this year. Yet, they also have a convincing win at the Dawg Pound against the Cleveland Browns, and a 26-13 win over the aforementioned Ravens here at LP Field.

The hope is that the bye week was just what the doctor ordered to get Chris Johnson going. Johnson, a 2,000-yard back just two years ago, has averaged just 3.0 YPC and has just 250 total yards on the ground this year. He only has one touchdown as well.

These two teams have split the proceedings over the last two seasons both from an SU standpoint and an ATS standpoint. The Titans won 31-17 last year at home, but were shut out 20-0 at Reliant Stadium. Prior to that though, Tennessee had covered six out of seven spreads in this series.

The 'over' has cashed in 19 of Houston's last 27 divisional games, but the Texans are just 1-5 towards the 'over' on the season.

The Texans enter this week tied at No. 14 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, while Tennessee enters at No. 20.

The oddsmakers are giving the slight nod to the hosts, though. The Titans are favored by three points, while the total has stayed level all week long at 44.

After a cold week in Nashville, temperatures should warm up just a tad for Sunday. Expect nice football weather in the high-60s with a minimal chance of rain and relatively light winds.