Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 06:28 PM

NFL | PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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NFL | WASHINGTON at CAROLINA
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, after the first month of the season
194-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.5% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after a win by 6 or less points
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

**StarDust Bum** · 10-17-2011, 10:51 PM

NFL odds: Opening line report Week 7

Who can figure out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

They couldn’t stop Alex Smith. They intercepted Drew Brees three times.

They took the worst beating in franchise history, then limped home without their star defensive tackle and leading rusher. So of course they promptly upset the Saints as 6-point underdogs.

With the 4-2 Bucs heading to London to face 3-3 Chicago, the line has been fluctuating as much as Tampa’s level of play. Both teams have been slight favorites depending on when you check. No one knows where it will land.

“Tampa is a tough team to get a read on,” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director John Avello told ***********. “It was the same last year when they had a good season. They’ll have a lot of good weeks but when they have a poor week, oh boy. Then they usually bounce back.

“I expected them to play well in San Francisco and they took a heckuva beating.”

Opinions vary widely on Tampa Bay, which leads the NFC West despite being picked behind the Saints and Falcons.

MGM Mirage’s Jeff Stoneback called the Buccaneers “decent.”

“They were 10-6 last year and it’s just a combination of being young and inconsistent, and maybe San Fran showed it’s the real deal,” Stoneback told ***********. “Sometimes a team plays a bad game, gets behind early and things just steamroll.”

Despite Sunday’s 26-20 win over New Orleans, handicapper Steve Merril rates Tampa Bay as “below average.”

“They were in a good situation, as they were coming off a blowout loss and caught the Saints in their third straight road game,” Merril said.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Bucs as 1-point favorites, but that was before Chicago pounded Minnesota on Sunday night. Now Chicago is laying 1.

There are times, manager Jay Kornegay said, when “things don’t go the Bucs’ way and they just don’t perform. But you can’t just look at one or two weeks. You have to look at the whole picture.

“They’re never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem.”

Tampa isn’t the only tough team to get a read on.

The Steelers dominated Tennessee 38-17 in Week 5, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Then they sleepwalked through a 17-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, failing to cover 12.5.

“The Steelers appear to be suffering from the ‘Super Bowl loser’ syndrome,” Covers expert Marc Lawrence said. “That, and a beat-up offensive line, have done in a lot of teams.”

Pittsburgh has been up and down since getting blown out by Baltimore in the opener.

“They come back and look good against Tennessee, then they just plod through with Jacksonville,” Stoneback said. “They win, but you’re just waiting for them to break out and start dominating a few teams. They seem to play down to their competition.”

Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at Arizona. The best thing you can say about the Cardinals is they’re rested.

Other inscrutable teams include Dallas and Philadelphia.

“Dallas is kind of confusing,” Kornegay said. “Their line of scrimmage play is really good sometimes. But they make a lot of bad mistakes. They’re just really inconsistent.

“The Eagles are another team that’s hard to get a grasp on,” he continued. “They’re talented. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll implode or not.”

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14, 47.5)

The Saints are angry and coming home. The winless Colts are playing their second straight on the road.

“Two touchdowns seems like a lot because New Orleans lets teams stay in the game,” Avello said. “But I don’t know how that Indy offense keeps up with the New Orleans offense.”

Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 18-12 ATS coming off a loss and 14-9 ATS in non-conference games.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay in London (1, 43), Washington at Carolina (-1.5, 44)

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan says he won’t choose between John Beck and Rex Grossman until Wednesday, and who can blame him? It’s not an appealing choice. Whoever gets the nod will play behind a line that just suffered two significant injuries.

Carolina (4-2 ATS) can only hope Cam Newton’s three-interception performance was a speedbump and not a sign defenses are catching up to the freakishly athletic rookie.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5, 48.5)

The Lions have played two straight unders after opening with four overs. Sunday’s 25-19 home loss to San Francisco barely stayed under the total of 45.

Look for the Falcons, who re-established their ground game Sunday, to try to run against a Lions defense that ranks 26th (129.5 yards per game). However, the over is 11-6-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last 19 conference games.

This is the biggest total because high-scoring teams like New England, Buffalo and the Giants are off.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Baltimore at Jacksonville (7.5, 38.5), Seattle at Cleveland (-3, 40)

The Ravens played over in every game until Sunday, when their 29-14 win over Houston stayed under by half a point.

But it’s hard to see the Jaguars mustering much offense in this matchup. They’re averaging 12 points and haven’t played a defense of this caliber. The Jags own a 1-5 O/U mark.

Seattle has a striking 14-6 O/U mark in road games since 2009 and the over is 20-9-1 when the Seahawks are underdogs.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:37 PM

Misleading Finals

October 18, 2011

Atlanta (-3.5) 31 Carolina 17

The Panthers actually led 17-14 entering the fourth quarter in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests. Capitalizing on a marginal punt, the Falcons tied the game with a field goal early in the fourth quarter and the defense stepped up with another stand to force Carolina to punt, surrendering good field position again. Atlanta put together a 10-play drive to find the end zone and then on Carolina’s next possession an interception the Falcons got the ball in Carolina territory again, eventually adding another touchdown to seal the game.

Cincinnati (-4.5) 27 Indianapolis 17

A lot of late action brought this line down considerably, opening at -7. Cincinnati seemed in control most of the way, taking a 20-7 lead into the fourth quarter but the Colts had a rally left, cutting the lead to 20-17 just a few minutes into the fourth quarter. The Bengals were very conservative on offense playing with the lead and had to punt back to the Colts, leading by just three with plenty of time on the clock. Indianapolis could not take advantage of good field position as the tying field goal attempt was blocked. Cincinnati was in position to push the lead past the spread late in the game but also missed a field goal to set up the Colts for another chance. Indianapolis would fumble after a first down completion and the Bengals returned it for a touchdown to seal the win and the cover with just over two minutes to go. Indianapolis got the ball back but an interception was the result, ending the chance for more late drama relative to the spread.

New York Giants (-3) 27 Buffalo 24

The Giants seemed to be in control in the second half of this game but Buffalo kept finding ways to answer. The Bills tied the game in the fourth quarter at 24-24 and seemed to have momentum after forcing the Giants to punt on the next possession. After the Bills moved into field goal range, Buffalo would turn the ball over with an interception, giving the Giants a great opportunity to win the game. The Giants put together a methodical drive to get into a first and goal situation with less than two minutes to go but ultimately had to settle for the field goal, leaving the game at a push.

Baltimore (-7) 29 Houston 14

Houston hung close with the Ravens most of the way, actually leading 14-13 late in the third quarter before a Baltimore field goal. Early in the fourth quarter the Ravens added another field goal to lead 19-14 and that score looked like it might hold up as there were punts on the next three possessions. The Ravens finally were able to cash with a touchdown, completing a 66-yard scoring drive with just over four minutes to go to get past the spread. In desperation mode the Texans turned the ball over on downs deep in their own territory, setting up the Ravens for another field goal, the fifth of the day to create the rare score of 29.

Oakland (-6.5) 24 Cleveland 17

After a fake field goal late in the third quarter, the Raiders appeared to be in complete control, leading 24-7 entering the fourth quarter. Cleveland added a field goal to cut into the margin but the Raiders were still well past the spread that was right at -7 most of the week before dropping late. Oakland put together a 12-play drive to burn nearly eight minutes off the clock but the chagrin of spread backers the Raiders opted to go for it on fourth and one at the Cleveland five-yard line, rather than pushing the margin to 17 points with an easy field goal. Predictably the Browns went down the field, including surviving an interception that was reversed and scored to cut the lead to just seven points with just over a minute to go. The Browns actually recovered an onside kick and moved into Oakland territory but could not force the tie.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:40 PM

NFL Betting Preview For Week 7

The New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles shed their disappointment tags for at least one week and now look ahead to Week 7 of the NFL betting season.

Philadelphia (2-4 straight up) had arguably a season-saving 20-13 win at Washington. The Eagles finally won the turnover battle (4-2), picking off the enigmatic Rex Grossman four times and the ‘cover’ of the 3-point spread stopped a 4-game losing streak (SU and ATS).

Coach Andy Reid’s team is still in the NFC East basement, two games behind the New York Giants, but gets to regroup with a bye week. Division leaders New England, San Francisco and the Giants are also off in addition to Buffalo and Cincinnati.

New England and San Fran had thrilling wins respectively over Dallas (20-16) and Detroit (25-19). They now get a chance to catch their respective breaths. The Giants were lucky to survive Buffalo (27-24), while Cincinnati beat Indianapolis (27-17) to improve to a surprising 4-2.

The NY Jets (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) had a huge win on Monday night, 24-6 as 7-point home favorites over woeful Miami. The Jets offense started very slowly, not even getting a first down until midway through the second quarter. Matt Moore had two picks as the new Dolphins starter, including one returned 100 yards by Darrelle Revis in a game-changing touchdown.

Rex Ryan knows his Jets must play better at the outset this Sunday against explosive San Diego (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS). The game is currently a pick ‘em at Don Best. The Chargers only loss (35-21) was when they headed East to face New England, although that game was closer than the score indicates.

Elsewhere around the league this week, Oakland (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) will reportedly acquire Cincinnati holdout quarterback Carson Palmer before today’s trading deadline. Former starter Jason Campbell is out with a broken collarbone and Kyle Boller will likely start against Kansas City (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) even if the trade is completed. The Raiders are 4-point home favorites.

There are quarterback questions in St. Louis (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) as Sam Bradford has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury suffered at Green Bay. The Rams and Dolphins are the only two teams without a ‘cover’ this season. Veteran A.J. Feeley is expected to start at disappointing Dallas (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS), with the ‘Boys 12-point favorites.

Seattle (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) is trying to get its season going after a bye. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (pectoral) is doubtful as the team visits Cleveland. Charlie Whitehurst should start after filling in nicely last game at the Giants (36-25 win). Cleveland (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) just lost at Oakland 24-17 and is 3-point home favorites this week.

The marquee matchup of the week is arguably Atlanta (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Detroit (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS). The Falcons need to prove they can beat a quality team on the road, going 0-3 ATS and only beating Seattle (30-28). The Lions are 3 ½-point favorites and are playing their third consecutive home game after suffering their first loss to San Fran.

Chicago (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) and Tampa Bay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) will travel across the pond to play in London. The Bears are 1 ½-point favorites and this game did not go well the last time for the Bucs here in 2009, a 35-7 loss to Tom Brady and New England.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) have struggled on the road at 0-3 ATS, with the only win barely getting by awful Indy 23-20. They are in the desert to face the Cardinals with Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt looking for revenge after losing this matchup in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh is 4-point road favorites.

Houston (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is a surprising battle for first place in the AFC South. Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson (hamstring) is doubtful after missing the last two games and the once high-powered offense is averaging just 17 PPG the last three weeks (‘under’ 3-0). The Titans are 3-point favorites coming off a bye.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS) were favored in the AFC South until the Peyton Manning injury. Now, they appear to be trying for the worst record in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. This Sunday night’s game at New Orleans is already their third primetime game (2-0 ATS in the first two) and a repeat of Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints are big 14-point ‘chalk.’

The week concludes Monday night with Baltimore (4-1 SU and ATS) visiting Jacksonville (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS). Baltimore and New England appear to be the two best teams in the AFC. The Jaguars are the second-lowest scoring team in football (12 PPG), helping the ‘under’ go 5-1. The Ravens range anywhere from 7 ½ to 9-point road favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:42 PM

Week 7 Preview: Falcons at Lions

ATLANTA FALCONS (3-3)

at DETROIT LIONS (5-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -3.5, Total: 47.5

Atlanta tries to piece together its first win streak of the season when it pays a visit to Detroit on Sunday.

The Lions are indeed coming off a disappointing first loss of the year, droppinga home game against the 49ers, but they have a chance to pounce on the Falcons in Week 7. Atlanta has not played well against teams with winning records this year, losing all three of those games by a combined margin of 71-39. Even in getting a win at home against Carolina last week, Atlanta was outgained by the Panthers. Atlanta is 2-4 ATS this year, while the Lions are 16-4 ATS in the past two seasons. The pick for Sunday’s game is DETROIT.

This three-star FoxSheets Power Trend also sides with the Lions:

DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.7, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*).

The Falcons turned back to RB Michael Turner and the power running game to beat Carolina this past Sunday, as he ran for a season-high 139 yards on 27 carries. Turner expects to have another heavy workload against the Lions soft run defense. Detroit has allowed 5.2 yards per carry this year (2nd-most in NFL) and was steamrolled by San Francisco last week, allowing 203 yards on 29 carries (7.0 YPC). Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw just 22 passes in last week’s game, the fewest attempts he’s had in a full game since his rookie year. Star WR Roddy White still doesn’t look 100 percent because of a knee injury, as he only caught two passes against the Panthers. The Falcons other starting WR Julio Jones missed the Carolina game with a hamstring injury and his return is questionable for the trip to Detroit.

The Lions will continue to air out the football, especially with leading rusher Jahvid Best doubtful to play on Sunday because of a concussion. The Falcons rank 27th in the NFL in passing defense (283 YPG), and they’ll have all kinds of problems with the Lions dynamic duo of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. Stafford has thrown at least two touchdowns in all six games this year, totaling 15 TD and 4 INT on the season. Johnson leads the NFL with nine touchdowns and has gained at least 88 receiving yards five times this season. In addition to Best, the Lions have other injury worries for Sunday, as LB Justin Durant (concussion), CB Eric Wright (leg) and S Vincent Fuller (elbow) are all questionable for Sunday’s game.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-18-2011, 05:43 PM

Week 7 Preview: Packers at Vikings

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-0)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 47

The Packers put their 12-game win streak on the line when they visit **** of America Field for a date with a reeling Vikings team fresh off a Sunday beat-down in Chicago.

Thanksgiving weekend a year ago was the last time the Packers lost a gameSU that Aaron Rodgers started and finished, and this Vikings team appears to be in no position to snap that streak. The Packers have won 11 of 13 ATS, which includes Rodgers and company coming into Minnesota a year ago and dominating the Vikes in a 31-3 slaughter. The Vikings are expected to start rookie QB Christian Ponder under center as they contemplate playing for the future. But Ponder and/or current starter Donovan McNabb stand little chance against Green Bay’s exotic blitz packages and ball-hawking corners. GREEN BAY should win this one easily by double-digits.

This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Packers:

Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 29.3, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 3*).

During Green Bay’s dozen-game ride, Aaron Rodgers is averaging a hefty 313 passing YPG, with 31 TD and just 6 INT. He has also tossed 12 TD and just 3 INT in seven career meetings with the Vikings. The Packers rushing attack remains subpar though, ranked 24th in yards (99 YPG) and 27th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC). Top RB James Starks has a total of 157 rushing yards (3.2 YPC) in his past four games. The Green Bay defense also has some lopsided statistics, ranking 5th in rushing (84 YPG), but 2nd-worst in passing defense (300 YPG). The Packers have not lost the turnover battle in any of their six games this year, posting a +7 TO margin on the season.

About the only thing the Vikings have going for them in this game is that the underdog is 14-5 ATS (10-9 SU) in this series at Minnesota since 1992. Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson was limited to 39 yards on 12 carries in the 39-10 loss to Chicago last Sunday night, but he has usually found room to run against Green Bay. Peterson has amassed 807 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 5 TD in eight career meetings versus the Pack. The passing game certainly needs some kind of change, ranked 2nd-to-last in the NFL with 169 YPG. But Ponder’s numbers against Chicago (9-of-17, 99 yds, 5.8 YPA, 70.5 rating) were worse than McNabb’s stat line (19-of-24, 177 yds, 7.4 YPA, 97.4 rating). One player who can help either QB is Percy Harvin, who had a season-high 78 receiving yards in the loss to Chicago. Defensively, the Vikings have smothered opposing ball carriers, allowing a mere 84 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). But the passing defense ranks 24th in the league (270 YPG) and could be without two key members of the secondary. CB Antoine Winfield (neck) and S Jamarca Sanford (concussion) are both questionable for Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:35 PM

Bears And Buccaneers In London NFL Betting Preview

Jay Cutler is coming off his best game of 2011 in a win over the Vikings.
Was last week a "buy signal" for both Chicago (3-3) and Tampa Bay (4-2)? Or was it just another in what might be a succession of rollercoaster efforts for both?

We’ll have a better idea after this Sunday, although for these two we’ll have to go across the pond to London to find out more answers. That’s because the Bears and Bucs are getting together at the new Wembley Stadium for the NFL’s annual excursion overseason this weekend.

Will Prince Will and Princess Kate be in attendance? Or maybe Pippa Middleton? Easy, lads.

We do know the FOX's cameras will be present, with Kenny Albert, Dary Johnstone and Tony Siragusa rewarded with the extra flyer miles to describe the action.

The Don Best odds screen sees the Bears a narrow 1-point betting choice at the majority of outlets, with the total 44 at most shops and a few 43½’s available. Kickoff time in London Town will be 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Both were highly encouraged by their efforts last week, especially Tampa Bay which recovered from a wicked 48-3 defeat inflicted by bully Jim Harbaugh and the rugged 49ers to beat high-flying New Orleans in a tense NFC South affair last Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The win put Tampa Bay right back in the thick of the division race with the Saints instead of falling a potentially-damaging two games behind the acknowledged NFC South favorites.

There were plenty of concerns at One Buccaneers Place in the run-up to last week’s game and the prospect of competing without slamming RB LeGarrette Blount and the infantry diversion he had so capably provided since late last season. Out with injury, he was replaced by fearless Earnest Graham, who provided a pretty good Blount impersonation when running for 109 tough yards in the win over the Saints.

Most encouraging to head coach Raheem Morris, however, was the effort of the defense against the high-powered, Drew Brees-led Saints offense. For the third time this season, Tampa Bay held an opponent to 70 or fewer rushing yards. Moreover, Morris’ stop unit forced four turnovers in the game, and was able to locate something of a pass rush, which had disappeared in a few games this season.

Keeping the latter up to par will require some added scheming this week by Morris, with star DT Gerald McCoy likely sidelined again. Look for Morris to dial up more blitzes in hopes of rattling Bear QB Jay Cutler.

Speaking of Midway Jay, he seemed much more comfy last week in the 39-10 romp past the Vikings. In the wake of offering a very lukewarm endorsement for offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ schemes the previous week, Cutler was able to work efficiently with shorter three and five-step drops, as opposed to the seven-step deep drops that had resulted in him being under siege for much of the first month of the season. Cutler’s 115.9 passer rating vs. the Vikes was his best of the season to date.

Still, the key to Chicago’s offense is establishing RB Matt Forte, who gained another 87 yards vs. Minnesota and has rushed for over 400 yards in the last three games combined. When Forte can provide a proper ground diversion, opponents are less likely to tee off on Cutler.

And therein probably lies the key to this game, as the Bucs’ stout rush defense can help the Tampa Bay cause immeasurably by keeping the clamps on Forte.

On the other hand, Chicago’s defense still has some questions. Although effective vs. disorganized Minnesota and keeping Adrian Peterson in relative check last Sunday night, the Bears have still allowed 5.4 yards per carry this season, and their smallish defensive front isn’t built to battle the Bucs’ heavyweight offensive line.

We’ll also have to see if Lovie Smith’s recent changes in the secondary (veteran safeties Chris Harris and Brandon Meriwether benched, little-used Major Wright and rookie Chris Conte now starting in their place) can be exploited by capable Buc QB Josh Freeman.

Note that Tampa Bay has also covered 14 of its last 19 games away from Raymond James Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:37 PM

John Beck Starts For Redskins at Carolina Panthers

The ’under’ has cashed in five of the Redskins’ last six games on the road.
Hold off on some of that Washington Redskins (3-2) playoff chatter that has been gushing from D.C. over the past month.

It looks like Mike Shanahan still might not have a proper quarterback to lead the 'Skins back to the postseason.

The Shan’s QB issues are topics number one, two and three on Rick Walker and John Thompson’s WTEM show and other sports talk programming this week in and around The Beltway after last week’s meltdown by starter Rex Grossman against Philadelphia. Four picks by the former Bears starter cost the Redskins dearly and have reopened the QB debate in the Nation’s Capital.

The next chapter of this saga unfolds Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers (1-5). Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), with the Panthers a consensus 2 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Posted ‘totals’ are bouncing between 43 and 43½ points. FOX provides the regional coverage with Chris Myers and Tim Ryan behind the microphones.

What Shanahan might do with his quarterback situation, however, is the dominant storyline in the run-up to this game. Grossman had provided serviceable if not spectacular in the first four games of the season as Washington broke to a rather surprising 3-1 start. But last week’s stinker vs. the Eagles forced Shanahan to go to the bench and ex-BYU and Dolphins QB John Beck, who had not taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game since 2007.

Beck, however, poured gasoline on the QB controversy fire by almost leading the Redskins back into Sunday’s game, and leading Washington’s lone TD drive which culminated in his own scramble for a score.

In the bigger picture, however, one must begin to wonder if Shanahan gambled too much on these two shaky alternatives at quarterback. The Redskins' offense has bogged down, failing to score more than 17 points in any of the last three outings. Moreover, with the trading deadline having passed this week and Shanahan unable (or unwilling) to make any moves to upgrade the position, he’s forced to ride with either Grossman or Beck the rest of the way.

By midweek, The Shan finally announced he would go with Beck to start Sunday.

At least the Redskins defense continues to perform efficiently. Finally adapting in the second year of defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s base 3-4 and variations from that alignment, the 'Skins have not allowed more than 21 points to anybody and have particularly tightened their pass defense, permitting only 4 TD passes and 54.9% completions. The emergence of Purdue rookie DE Ryan Kerrigan, whose ability to pressure from the edge along with Brian Orakpo on the opposite side has helped result in 17 sacks to date.

And defense figures to give Washington its best chance on Sunday.

Although a slight favorite, remember that host Carolina has won only one of its first six games, and that came in the late going against a suspect Jacksonville side. The Panthers are certainly not used to winning, either, dropping 19 of 22 games straight up since last season.

There’s lots of hope, of course, thanks to the arrival of Heisman-winning Auburn QB Cam Newton, who has opened plenty of eyes with his early-season exploits. Newton is passing for better than 300 yards per game through six weeks.

But, he remains a rookie, and when his learning curve slows as it did last week in Atlanta, the Panthers are in trouble. Newton suffered three picks at the Georgia Dome and now has nine interceptions (vs. seven TDs passes) this season. An injury to RT Jeff Otah has also impacted the offensive line, as rookie replacement Byron Bell had all sorts of problems vs. the Falcons last week.

Of greater concern to Panthers’ first-year head coach Ron Rivera is a defense that continues to spring leaks, which has to really grate Rivera, an acknowledged defensive specialist. But his stop unit is running on short rations, with season-ending injuries to LBs Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and DT Ron Edwards dangerously thinning Carolina along its front seven. The Panthers have allowed nearly five yards per carry to opposing rushers and the pass rush has been inconsistent, registering just nine sacks in six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:38 PM

New York Jets Host Rested San Diego Chargers

San Diego has covered just one of its last six meetings with the Jets.
The San Diego Chargers (4-1) have always been apt to sleepwalk through early-season games since Norv Turner arrived as head coach in 2007.

But we don’t think we have to worry about the Chargers being flat this weekend.

Indeed, San Diego’s trip to MetLife Stadium in the New Jersey Meadowlands for Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff against the host New York Jets (3-3) is anything but another ho-hum October game for the Bolts.

Instead, it’s about revenge.

The Chargers, now listed a 2-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with a total at 43½ or 44 depending upon where one shops, have yet to forget about their bitter playoff loss at the hands of the Jets at the conclusion of the 2009 campaign.

To refresh memories, San Diego entered the playoffs that campaign as the AFC’s top seed after recording a 13-3 regular-season mark. After a first-round bye, the Bolts were rated as solid 8½-point favorites in the Division Round against the visiting Jets, who had won at Cincinnati by a 20-10 count in the previous week’s AFC Wild Card Round.

San Diego, however, was unable to put the Jets away when it had its chances that afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium. Up 7-0 at the half, the Chargers saw the Jets cut the lead to 7-3 in the third quarter. Failing to capitalize on a subsequent New York turnover early in the fourth quarter, San Diego quickly gave the ball right back when QB Philip Rivers was intercepted by safety Jim Leonhard, who returned the pick to the Bolts’ 16. From there, Mark Sanchez led the Jets into the end zone with a 2-yard TD toss to Justin Keller, putting the New Yorkers in front.

Later in the fourth quarter, the Jets sealed the game when Iowa rookie RB Shonn Greene busted the longest TD run in franchise history, a 53-yarder, to give Rex Ryan’s team an unassailable 17-7 lead. A late Rivers TD sneak cut the deficit to 17-14, but the Jets were able to run out the clock thanks to some tough running by vet Thomas Jones.

Some AFC West observers claim the Bolts went into a deep funk after the game, a bitter postseason exit reminiscent of a similar failure against Bill Belichick’s Patriots after the 2006 season that cost head coach Marty Schottenheimer his job. San Diego stumbled through much of 2010, missing the playoffs, and some insiders believe the Chargers have been waiting to exorcise those playoff demons for the past 21 months.

Sunday could be their opportunity.

Fundamentals suggest San Diego, well-rested after last week’s bye, has a good chance at gaining its pound of flesh. The combination of a solid offensive line and QB Rivers’ quick release should negate some of pass-rush pressure Ryan’s stop unit is likely to unleash. Sources say Rivers has been working closely over the past week with Turner on improved reads, looking to improve upon his uncharacteristic seven picks thus far.

Moreover, the Bolts are starting to get some good balance offensively with second-year ex-Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews (413 YR & 4.9 ypc) now providing a dangerous infantry diversion. New PK Nick Novak has also converted on all 11 of his field goal tries this season.

The week off also gave Rivers a chance to heal sore ribs and increased the likelihood that TE Antonio Gates will be healthier and more productive after battling plantar fascitis since the preseason.

Meanwhile, AFC East sources are not convinced that the Jets’ 24-6 Monday Night win over struggling Miami is indicative of a "buy" signal for Ryan’s team. The Jets blew hot-and-cold on offense all night and needed a franchise-record 100-yard interception return for a TD by DB Darrelle Revis to jump-start the team late in the first quarter.

As for QB Mark Sanchez, his efforts continue to be unconvincing, with his passing rating among the lowest for starting QBs in the league. Sources also indicate there remains some friction in the NY clubhouse after WR Santonio Holmes called out the offensive line following a recent three-game losing streak.

The win over Miami also might not be an indicator that the Jets’ defense is where Ryan wants it to be at this stage, either. Remember, New York had allowed 30 points or more in three straight games prior to the success vs. the impotent Dolphins on Monday night.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:41 PM

Green Bay Packers Laying Nine At Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has won and covered seven of the last 10 vs. the Vikings.
The Green Bay Packers are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL, and will look to stay that way this Sunday afternoon when they head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.

The Don Best odds screen currently lists Green Bay as a 9-point road favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) Sunday and will be televised nationally on FOX.

As would be expected in a game with a 9-point road favorite, the discrepancy between Green Bay and Minnesota is quite clear on the field this season, and it is also reflected in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. Green Bay is ranked first in the NFL in this week’s poll while Minnesota is tied with Denver near the bottom of the league at 26th.

Green Bay (6-0) has been a model of consistency through the first six games of 2011. With a 5-1 record against the spread, the league’s top scoring offense (averaging 32.8 points per game) and the league’s seventh overall defense (allowing just 19 points per game), there’s little not to like about the defending champions.

Aaron Rodgers continued his assault on opposing team’s defenses last week against St. Louis, passing for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (17) and quarterback rating (122.5), and is third in passing yards with 2,031. He looks to be well on his way to adding an NFL MVP award to his already impressive career resume.

Minnesota (1-5) followed up its first win of the season with a dud of a performance last Sunday night at Chicago, losing 39-10 as a 2-point underdog. Star running back Adrian Peterson managed only 39 yards against the Bears’ stingy defense. The Vikings fell to 2-3-1 ATS with the loss.

Down big late in the game, Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier decided to officially pull the plug on the Donovan McNabb experiment and turn the ball over to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. The Florida State grad went 9-for-17 with 99 yards passing, and will get his first career start this week against Green Bay.

As if all the signs on the field this season didn’t already point towards the Packers, the recent history between these two NFC East rivals does. Green Bay is 7-3 both SU and ATS against the Vikings, including two wins and covers last year. The Packers beat Minnesota 31-3 when they faced them on the road last season.

Green Bay’s 31-3 win was the first time the total had gone ‘under’ between these two teams since 2007. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six games between the Vikings and the Packers with four of those games featuring 52 or more points.

The total for this Sunday’s game is currently set at 46 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:42 PM

Steelers And Cardinals In Super Bowl Rematch

Pittsburgh is favored by four over Arizona, with Sunday’s total at 42.
It was only three years ago that the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals met up in Super Bowl XLIII, one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory. Now, the two are just trying to get their footing to get back into the playoffs as they head into their Week 7 NFL betting battle this week at the University of Phoenix Stadium.

Kickoff is slated for 4:05 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage available on CBS.

Pittsburgh (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) enters this game ranked No. 6 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. However, there are definitely some causes for concern right now for the fans of black and gold, and the normally square Steelers might not be the right side in this game as a result.

There are still some major problems across the offensive line for Pittsburgh. It won't have Doug Legursky in this game, though both Marcus Gilbert and Chris Kemoeatu have the potential to be back in the fold. That being said, this is still an offensive line that has conceded 18 sacks this year, and the end result for the rushing game has been just 4.07 YPC for the team's top two tailbacks, Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman.

The Steelers only rank No. 22 in the league in scoring at 19.8 PPG, and there has just been one game all season long in which the team put more than 24 points on the board.

Thank goodness for this defense. On a day that the offense struggled, the Steelers were able to shut down Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 17-13 victory to move to 4-2 in Week 6.

This unit still ranks No. 1 in the game in total defense at 270.5 YPG, and is No. 4 in scoring defense at 17.0 PPG. Since Week 1's loss against the Baltimore Ravens, no team has scored more than 20 points on Iron Curtain D, and teams are averaging just 13.4 PPG.

The Cardinals (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) are No. 22 in our Don Best Linemakers Poll, and they have been sliding in the wrong direction ever since their opening week win over the Carolina Panthers. Since that point, they are 0-4 SU, though three of those four losses came by four points or fewer.

This is a big, big game for head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Not only is he going against his old mates in a rematch of the Super Bowl from three years ago, but he also needs to cool down the temperature on his hot seat. Many think that this could be the last year for Whisenhunt in Arizona if he doesn't win, and dropping to 1-5 and four games out of the NFC West lead could be disastrous.

The key is going to be getting Kevin Kolb going. The former Houston Cougar just hasn't played that well this year, and only has 1,281 yards and five TDs against six INTs.

Larry Fitzgerald, one of the most talented receivers in the league has struggled. He only has 27 receptions on the campaign and is on pace for just 86 receptions, 1,366 yards and six TDs.

This is the first meeting of these two teams since the Super Bowl, a game that Pittsburgh won 27-23. The Cards only have one win in this series since 1994, a 21-14 victory here at University of Phoenix Stadium in 2007.

The Steelers opened up this week as four-point favorites. The 'total' is set at 42.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:44 PM

Baltimore Ravens Meet Jaguars On Monday Night Football

Maurice Jones-Drew is third in the NFL with 572 yards on the ground.
ESPN’s Monday Night Football features one of the best teams in the National Football League in the Baltimore Ravens as they head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) along the St. Johns River at EverBank Field.

This prime-time matchup opened with the Ravens as an 8½-point favorite but that has actually been bet down to 7½ with a total of 39.

Baltimore (4-1) comes into this game leading the AFC North and off of a home victory over a Houston Texans team many consider to be the class of the AFC South. First and foremost, it’s time to talk defense.

The Ravens have the best defense in the league. Rankings are not needed to illustrate that, but just to emphasize it they are third in yards against, first in points against (14.2), third in rushing defense and second in passing touchdowns allowed (4). The Ravens have six picks on the year and have forced 10 fumbles, recovering an astounding eight of them.

Playmakers, and leaders, are in every level of their defense with Haloti Ngata on the line, Ray Lewis at linebacker and Ed Reed in the secondary.

Jacksonville (1-5) actually has a very solid defense as well. The Jags may not be a great defense as they do not create as many turnovers, but they have done a great job all year. This is a team that does not give up many big plays.

It looked as though their identity was shattered a week ago when WR Mike Wallace and RB Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers created three big plays en route to a 17-0 lead in the first half. However, the Jags ‘D’ tightened up and allowed just 70 yards in the second half, surrendering no more points.

As usual, the defensive unit did plenty to get Jacksonville a win but the offense did not do enough and the Jaguars lost their fifth game in a row.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert will complete a 3-game stretch on Monday having played the top-3 ranked defenses in the NFL (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore). Talk about growing up fast. This is one of the poorest offenses in the league caused by a having a young QB and a receiver corps that drops too many passes. The Jags re-signed Mike Sims-Walker this week after he was cut by the Rams.

On the bright side, Maurice Jones-Drew continues to prove he is a top-2 running back in the league week in and week out.

Offensively for the Ravens, running back Ray Rice does everything. He must be accounted for in the running game and in the passing game. As far as the rest of the passing game goes, QB Joe Flacco likes to launch it downfield in addition to checking off to Rice. The Ravens are fourth in the league in pass plays over 40 yards.

Free agent pickup Lee Evans was supposed to help the Ravens go vertical this year, but rookie Torrey Smith has really taken that role. Even tough possession receiver Anquan Boldin went vertical last week.

Here is the most interesting tidbit on this game, or maybe any game this week: John Harbaugh, one of the best coaches in the league, is dynamite coming off of a bye week. Including last week against Houston, his team’s scores in that situation are 28-10, 30-7, 26-10 and 29-14. Those are all at home and they are all wins. However, in the week that follows each of those wins, the scores have been 23-20, 17-7 and 26-21. Those are all on the road and they are all losses.

Well, this week they are on the road in the same situation. An argument could be made, of course, that the Jags are the worst team they have played in this situation. If nothing else, it is very interesting.

In prime-time games, Harbaugh is 7-4 while the Jaguars are 4-7 under head coach Jack Del Rio. The Ravens are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Monday games while the Jags are 2-7 in their last nine Monday contests. On a final note, safety Dawan Landry of the Jaguars will be facing his former team having spent his first five seasons in Baltimore.

Early weather reports call for clear skies with temperatures in the mid-60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:48 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 7

October 19, 2011

Sunday, Oct 23 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

CHI: 2-5-2 ATS L8 vs NFC South
CHI: 4-2 ATS L6 off division win
TB: 6-2 ATS L8 vs NFC North
TB: 0-3 ATS L3 before bye

WSH: 7-2 ATS L9 as away underdog
WSH: 5-1 ATS L6 off division loss
CAR: 10-4 'under' L14 at home
CAR: 1-5 ATS L6 vs NFC East

SD: 7-2 'over' L9 away
SD: 2-5 ATS L7 away vs non-division
NYJ: 6-0 ATS L6 off division win
NYJ: 3-1 ATS L4 before bye

SEA: 2-8 ATS L10 off bye
SEA: 1-7 ATS L8 away vs AFC
CLE: 1-5 ATS L6 home vs NFC
CLE: 2-8 ATS L10 as home favorites

HOU: 4-8 ATS L12 away vs division
HOU: 8-3 ATS L11 away off away loss
TEN: 6-3 ATS L9 overall
TEN: 8-4 ATS L12 home vs division

DEN: 6-2 ATS L8 off bye
DEN: 3-7 ATS L10 away vs non-division
MIA: 3-14 ATS L17 home favorites
MIA: 2-6 ATS L8 off division loss

ATL: 7-2 ATS L9 off home win
ATL: 7-1 ATS L8 before bye
DET: 5-2 ATS L7 off ATS loss
DET: 7-4 ATS L11 off home loss

Sunday, Oct 23 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

KC: 9-5 ATS L14 away vs division
KC: 1-7 ATS L8 vs opp off SU win
OAK: 8-0 ATS L8 vs division
OAK: 2-6 ATS L8 off home win

PIT: 3-5 ATS L8 away vs NFC
PIT: 3-6 ATS L9 off home win
ARZ: 5-1 'under' L6 off bye
ARZ: 2-6 ATS L8 off road loss

Sunday, Oct 23 (4:15 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

STL: 1-8 ATS L9 overall
STL: 4-0-1 'under' L5 away
DAL: 1-7 ATS L8 home favorites
DAL: 1-6-1 ATS L8 off away loss

GB: 13-4 ATS L17 away vs division
GB: 5-2 ATS L7 before bye
MIN: 2-8 ATS L10 home underdog
MIN: 2-6 ATS L8 vs division

Sunday, Oct 23 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

IND: 0-4 ATS L4 off away loss
IND: 6-2 'over' L8 away vs NFC
NOR: 2-8 ATS L10 double-digit favorites
NOR: 5-1 ATS L6 home vs AFC

Monday, Oct 24 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL: 4-0 ATS L4 Mondays
BAL: 5-2 ATS L7 away favorites
JAX: 2-7 ATS L9 overall
JAX: 5-0 'under' L5 Mondays

Teams on Bye

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2011, 06:58 PM

Week 7 Preview: Chargers at Jets

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1)

at NEW YORK JETS (3-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -1.5, Total: 46

The Jets ended their three-game losing skid on Monday Night, but they have little time to celebrate with 4-1 San Diego coming to town on Sunday.

This is a chance for the brash Jets to prove they’re among the AFC’s elite teams. The Chargers have been one of the NFL’s top ranked teams on both sides of the ball, but they’re also extremely mistake-prone with multiple turnovers in four of their five games. The Jets are still trying to find an identity on both sides of the ball. They are averaging 234 YPG of offense in the past three contests, and their once-stout run defense has struggled badly, allowing 132 YPG (5th-most in league). They could have trouble containing the Chargers’ improved rushing attack that rumbled for 206 yards in their last game. The Bolts are well-rested after their bye week, and will take advantage of a Jets team coming off a short week. The pick here is underdog SAN DIEGO.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also supports the Chargers:

Norv Turner is 20-8 ATS (71.4%, +11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 27.7, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Since 2002, the Jets are 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in six meetings with San Diego, but the Chargers won their last road game against the Jets, 31-26 in 2005. The Chargers’ four wins this season are against teams with a combined 4-17 record, but this is a club on the rise. Their four best offensive skill players have been hobbled by injuries (RB Ryan Mathews – calf, RB Mike Tolbert – concussion, WR Vincent Jackson – hamstring and TE Antonio Gates – foot), but Gates is the only one of the four that is questionable for Sunday’s game. San Diego was also very balanced in its last victory in Denver with 212 passing yards and 206 rushing yards. QB Philip Rivers has completed 67% of his passes for 307 YPG this year, but has more picks (seven) than touchdowns (six). The defense has also done a tremendous job in the passing game, ranking second in the NFL with 180 YPG allowed. And although San Diego allowed Denver to rush for 162 yards, it has held three of its opponents to under 100 this year.

Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson will be facing his former team for the first time. In nine years in San Diego, he racked up an eye-popping 153 touchdowns (17.0 per season). The last time these teams met was in the 2009 playoffs, when Shonn Greene ran wild in a 17-14 New York upset. Greene carried the rock 23 times for 128 yards and a TD in that win. But this RB duo has not done much this season, combining for just 411 yards on 122 carries (3.4 YPC). QB Mark Sanchez has been up and down, but he played better in his past two games, with 367 passing yards, 3 TD and no interceptions. TE Dustin Keller leads the Jets in both catches (21) and yards (319), while the top two WRs, Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress have combined for a mere 34 catches on 77 targets (44%). Although the run defense has been suspect, the Jets still are getting elite play from their secondary, as talented cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie each have three interceptions and are the keys to New York’s stingy passing defense (201 YPG, 5th in NFL).

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