The Bum's NFL Week # 7 Best Bets !

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Dallas Cowboys 13-Point Favorites Vs. St. Louis Rams

The status of St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford is the big question heading into Sunday’s game at the Dallas Cowboys.

St. Louis is a 13-point ‘dog at Don Best after opening at 12. The NFL betting total is down a point from the open, 44 ½ to 43 ½, with kickoff from Cowboys Stadium at 4:15 p.m. (ET) on FOX.

The Rams (0-5 straight up and against the spread) have taken a giant step back after an 7-9 SU campaign last year and almost winning the woeful NFC West. A tough schedule hasn’t helped, but the biggest culprit is ranking last in red-zone touchdowns (25 percent) and scoring (9.8 PPG).

Those numbers were with the talented Bradford starting, but he suffered a high ankle sprain last week at Green Bay and should be a game-time decision after not practicing through Thursday. The backup option is veteran A.J. Feeley, who hasn’t started since 2007 with Philadelphia.

Both quarterbacks are happy with the deadline addition of Denver receiver Brandon Lloyd. He led the NFL with 1,448 receiving yards last year and will acclimate quickly to the offense being familiar with coordinator Josh McDaniels’ system. St. Louis’ passing offense ranks just 25th this season (210.8 YPG).

Running back Steven Jackson had 96 yards against Green Bay and is looking healthy after an early-season quad injury. He will be badly needed to keep the Dallas defense honest and not pinning its ears back. The Cowboys are first in the NFL in run defense (69.6 YPG), although they did surrender 101 yards to the Patriots last week.

The Rams were 14-point underdogs versus Green Bay, the only time they’ve been greater than a touchdown ‘dog this year. They actually out-gained the Pack in total yards (424-399) despite the 24-3 loss.

St. Louis is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a 10 ½-point road ‘dog or greater.

The Cowboys may only be 2-3 SU (2-2-1 ATS), but they are much more talented than their record suggest with all three losses coming by four points or less. The Don Best Linemakers Poll agrees with the ‘Boys ranked eighth in the NFL (95.1 rating). St. Louis is 29th with an 86.5 rating.

The latest heartbreaker for Dallas was a 20-16 loss at New England as 6 ½-point ‘dogs. The team held Tom Brady and company in check until the game-winning 80-yard drive. That was precipitated by some conservative play calling by coach Jason Garrett, preferring his defense to win the game instead of quarterback Tony Romo.

The 36 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 54 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-2 for Dallas on the year and 1-1 at home. The ‘over’ is 10-1 its last 11 home games overall.

Romo had a nice day statistically vs. New England (27-of-41, 317 yards) and has the fifth-highest yards per attempt in the league (8.24). However, red-zone offense also kills this team at 33 percent touchdown success, second-worst to the Rams.

Romo had one interception last week and five in the last three games. His penchant for costly turnovers is the reason Garrett was conservative last week in crunch time. The quarterback should be much more comfortable going against a decimated Rams cornerback position that has 36-year-old Al Harris starting.

Dallas running back Felix Jones (ankle) is out, with rookie DeMarco Murray the likely starter and backed up by Tashard Choice. Dallas is a pass first team, but can have success against the Rams worst-ranked run defense (161.8 YPG), although the unit did hold Green Bay to just 90 yards last week.

Defensively, coordinator Rob Ryan should be extra aggressive after also being passive on New England’s final drive. If Bradford plays, expect Ryan to unleash his defense like a lion on a hurt gazelle. McDaniels will try to slow down the blitzing with screen passes, but Dallas will be ready for that.

The Cowboys are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS at home this year. They had a comeback win over Washington (18-16) as 3 ½-point favorites and blew a huge lead against Detroit, losing 34-30 as 2 ½-point ‘chalk.’

Dallas is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite and a complete effort for 60 minutes is needed to cover this large spread.

Weather is expected to have some morning thunderstorms, but it should be clear by game-time with temps in the 70s. Closing the roof is always an option for owner Jerry Jones.

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Week 7 NFL Sunday Betting Update

If you’re a bettor seeking out competitive action in Week 7 of the NFL season, look no further than the early part of Sunday’s slate. All seven games that kick off at 1:00 p.m. (ET) have lines of 3 ½ points or less, with six of them sitting within a field goal according to the Don Best odds screen.

This is the first time in 2011 that a group of games has been so evenly matched by the linemakers. The same can’t be said for the remaining six games that take place later in the day and on Monday, as four of them have lines of eight points or higher.

As many as six of the games could feature teams starting new quarterbacks. Five of the teams have already announced probable starters, and five of them opened as underdogs.

St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford was ruled out on Saturday as he continues to battle a high-ankle sprain he suffered in a 24-3 road loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. The Rams (0-5) are 13 ½-point road underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys and will replace Bradford with veteran A.J. Feeley, who has not started a game since 2007 when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles.

John Beck will take over for Rex Grossman as the starting QB for the Washington Redskins (3-2), and they are 2 ½-point road underdogs against the Carolina Panthers (1-5). Grossman threw four interceptions in a 20-13 home loss to the Eagles (2-4) last week, prompting the move due to his league-high 11 turnovers on the season.

Beck is 0-4 as a starter during his career, with all of the losses taking place when he was a rookie on a 1-15 Miami Dolphins team four years ago.

The Seattle Seahawks (2-3) will go with Charlie Whitehurst under center for the injured Tavaris Jackson, who is dealing with a strained pectoral muscle. Whitehurst relieved Jackson in a 36-25 road win against the New York Giants (4-2) two weeks ago, and the Seahawks are 3-point road dogs against the Cleveland Browns (2-3) as they try to win consecutive games away from home for the first time in almost four years.

The game with the biggest line movement so far this week involves the Denver Broncos (1-4) and second-year QB Tim Tebow, who earned the nod over Kyle Orton as they visit the winless Miami Dolphins (0-5). The Broncos opened as 3-point underdogs but are down to a pick ’em against the Dolphins, who are coming off a brutal performance in a 24-6 loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Miami also started Matt Moore at QB against the Jets for the first time off its bye week because Chad Henne is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

The only team favored that is making a change at QB is the Oakland Raiders (4-2), who completed a major trade earlier this week to land Carson Palmer from the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2). Palmer was holding out from the Bengals in hopes of getting dealt and got his wish. However, he is not expected to start when the Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) with Jason Campbell injured (broken collarbone).

Instead, Kyle Boller will likely replace Campbell in the starting lineup. Oakland is listed as a 3 ½-point favorite against Kansas City.

Finally, the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) have decided to start rookie Christian Ponder over Donovan McNabb at home against the unbeaten Green Bay Packers (6-0). Ponder played for the first time last week late in a 39-10 road loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday and was Minnesota’s first-round draft pick this year. He will face a tough task against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, who are 9 ½-point road favorites.

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Total Talk - Week 7

October 21, 2011

Week 6 Recap

Some gamblers may’ve felt the oddsmakers were making the right adjustments on totals this season due to the ‘over’ rush but others, including myself, believed the numbers were a tad inflated. I noted in last week’s Total Talk how the board didn’t feature an ‘over/under’ listed below 40 points. So what happens? The ‘under’ posts a 10-3 mark. Was it a coincidence or a sign of things to come? After six weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 47-40-3 (54%).

Good-BYE Offense

The rest vs. rust factor always seems to be debatable and the two are always associated with wins and losses. If a team comes out flat off the bye week and loses, you’ll say they’re rusty. Conversely, if they look sharp, then they’re rested or prepared. Last week, six teams played off the bye and those clubs went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, with only Baltimore notching a 29-14 win at home over Houston. More importantly, the Ravens were the only team to bust 20-plus points. The other five combined for an average of 11 points per game, with St. Louis (3), Washington (13), Cleveland (17), Dallas (16) and Miami (6) looking rusty. Bottom line, the ‘under’ went 6-0 in those games.

Week 7 features six more teams who will try to look rested rather than rusty.

San Diego at N.Y. Jets: The Chargers have allowed 35 and 24 points in their two road games, plus the Jets have scored 27, 32 and 24 in their three home games. New York has given up a combined nine points in last two home games albeit against Jacksonville (3) and Miami (6).

Houston at Tennessee: You think wide receiver Andre Johnson is a difference maker for Houston’s offense? Since he went down to the Steelers on Oct. 2, the offense has put up 17, 20 and 14 points. Prior to his injury, the attack put up 34, 23 and 33 points. The total is hovering around 44 for this week’s battle, despite Houston going ‘under’ in five of its six games. These teams have watched the ‘over/under’ split the last three seasons (3-3).

Denver at Miami: The Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1, while the Dolphins have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1. Denver head coach John Fox has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 after the bye during his tenure in Carolina.

Kansas City at Oakland: This number is dropping and could get lower, especially with debut of QB Carson Palmer in Oakland. The Raiders and Chiefs have watched eight of their last 10 encounters go ‘under’ the number. And those who recall last year’s battle in Oakland (23-20) know that game should’ve stayed ‘under’ as well.

Seattle at Cleveland: After putting up a combined 30 points in the first three weeks, the ‘Hawks have posted 28 and 36 in their last two games. Cleveland’s offense (18.2 PPG) has been real shaky this season, especially at home (15.7 PPG). Make a note that whether it was Mike Holmgren, Jim Mora Jr. or Pete Carroll guiding Seattle, the ‘over’ has gone 10-0 in the last 10 games after a bye.

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Cardinals have played two games at home and both went ‘over.’ Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been explosive this season due to injuries on the offensive line, but the Cards’ defense has allowed 20-plus in four of five games.

Lookin’ at London

The NFL International Series returns this week with Chicago (3-3) and Tampa Bay (4-2) going head-to-head at Wembley Stadium from London. This is the first time that gamblers will see two teams from the same conference squaring off. If you’re not familiar with the weather in England at this time of the year, then make a note that it isn’t pretty and usually overcast with wind and rain. Does it make a difference? Well, I like to believe that numbers don’t lie. With that being said, this will be the fifth installment from London and three of the first four encounters went ‘under’ the number.

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 – San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)

When you look at this week’s matchup, it’s hard to argue an ‘over’ play when looking at what the Bears (13 PPG) and Bucs (13.5 PPG) have done offensively on the road this season. The total opened at 42 and has been spiked up to 43 ½ points, which makes you wonder if people even know the game is being played across the pond.

On a side note, Buffalo will continue its Toronto series next week against Washington. The two teams will play at Rogers Centre, marking the fourth regular season game for the Bills at this venue. We’ll touch on the trends in next week’s Total Talk.

Under the Lights

Slowly but surely, the ‘under’ tickets are starting to come around with the primetime games. Even though the Bears-Vikings went ‘over’ on SNF, the Jets-Dolphins matchup never threatened the closing total on MNF. Through six weeks, the ‘over’ is 9-4-1 (69%). This week’s matchups feature the highest total and lowest totals on the board.

Indianapolis at New Orleans: The total on this game has been hovering between 47 and 48 points at some books, and that makes me wonder what the number would be if the Colts has Peyton Manning behind center. Everybody knows that the Saints’ offense is a juggernaut, which has busted 30-plus four times and 20-plus in the other two. Can Indianapolis match points? The Colts are only averaging 13.7 PPG on the road. However, Jim Caldwell’s defense (27.2 PPG) has been horrible this season. And the Saints’ defense (25.2 PPG) isn’t great either. Line is definitely inflated and will probably go up with bettors chasing on Sunday.

Baltimore at Jacksonville: In terms of totals, you have two complete opposites here. Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1, but Jacksonville is 5-1 to the ‘under.’ Next to St. Louis (9.8 PPG), the Jaguars are the second worst scoring offense (12 PPG) in the league. And now you put that attack up against the Ravens, who have the best scoring defense (14.2 PPG). Before you run and bet the ‘under’, you should make a note that the Jaguars have scored more at home this season (15.6 PPG) and the Ravens have put up 29 or more in four of their five games. The total opened at 39 and should close under 40 but you never know how the public will push the action on MNF.

Fearless Predictions

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda! After getting 30 points in the first half of the Saints-Bucs game, we witnessed 16 in the second half, which made us lose our ‘over’ ticket. The ‘over’ was the right side, but it’s hard to cash when you get 10 scores and six of them are field goals. The Three-Team teaser, but our Team Total play on the Rams was poor. And with that being said, the deficit stands at $280. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Arizona 42.5

Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 43.5

Best Team Total: Over 23.5 Pittsburgh

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Pittsburgh-Arizona 33.5
Under Houston-Tennessee 53.5
Over Seattle-Cleveland 32.5

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Trends - Week 7

October 22, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 19. 2001 after a Sunday game where they lost by 21+ points.

NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Broncos are 0-12 ATS (-15.7 ppg) since November 2009 afer a game where they committed five or fewer penalties.

NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Panthers are 0-11 OU (-7.9 ppg) since December 14, 2008 as a home favorite.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

Northwestern is 14-0-1 ATS (14.6 ppg) since 2000 when facing a team they lost to by between 12 and 20 points last meeting which came within the past three seasons.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

New Mexico St. is 0-13 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since November 2001 when they scored between 31 and 41 points last game.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Bears are 0-11 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 1999 on the road vs a team with more wins on the season when they are off a win last week in which they committed fewer than three turnovers.

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NFL Line Moves

October 22, 2011

We’ve got two great stories this week involving quarterbacks that have had an effect on the line movement. Carson Palmer going to the Oakland Raiders was big news earlier in the week and it was even bigger news when erroneous reports came out that he would be starting Sunday. We’ve also got the intriguing story of Mr. Florida, Tim Tebow, coming home to get honored in the Denver Broncos ‘road’ game at Miami.
When the Palmer news broke, the first thing every sports book did was adjust their future odds on the Raiders. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book immediately went from 40/1 down to 30/1 in their odds to win the Super Bowl while also dropping their AFC Championship odds from 20 to 15/1.

The Raiders have already looked impressive this season (4-2) with a strong running game and getting a veteran quarterback in the mix makes them even more dangerous for opposing teams. Because of their success on the field and covering the spread in five of six games, they’re also becoming a popular public team again.

When news broke about Palmer possibly starting this week against Kansas City, it immediately affected the point-spread.

“We started getting bets immediately on the Raiders moving from minus-4, up to 4 ½ where they bet some more and then again there and -5,” said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood who has since moved the line back to -4 ½ on news that Kyle Boller is now expected to start.

Some sports books in Las Vegas went as high as -6 with the Raiders opting not to mess around with the dead numbers of 5 or 5 ½. As of Friday afternoon, almost every book is now -4 with a few like the MGM Resort properties at -4 ½.

There’s no doubt that Carson Palmer was throwing and keeping in shape while waiting out the season, but no matter how strenuous his workouts were it would be impossible for him to be in NFL game shape. Let Palmer get more familiar with the system, have the bye week and then unleash him against the Broncos in Week 9.

By Week 9, the Broncos should be a little closer to knowing what they have with Tim Tebow. Most everyone else has the scouting report on him which says: He’s not very accurate, but he makes things happen on the fly and the team seems to play more inspired when he’s on the field.

Due to several reasons, like public outcry in Denver and Kyle Orton playing poorly, the new Broncos regime reluctantly named Tebow the starter during their bye week. The reluctant part is simply because Tebow is not ‘their guy.’ John Fox and John Elway didn’t draft him. He was Josh McDaniels dream project.

Right from the start, the regime made it difficult for Tebow. Rather than competing for the starting job after doing well in the final games last season, he came in competing for the back-up job with Brady Quinn.

“It looks like their setting him up to fail,” said Rood. “How else can you explain trading away his best receiver, a guy who led the league in yards last year, the week before he makes his first start of the season.”

Could there be a conspiracy in Denver, due to just how vocal the fans have been in support of Tebow, to let him play and get it over with? There doesn’t seem to be a lot of support for him from management and it’s almost like Tebow is getting the chance with the deck stacked against him.

It’s like the Broncos are saying, “If he fails, then we can get rid of him and be over with McDaniels project while also appeasing our fans by saying ‘see, we played him and look what happened.’ And if he succeeds, well, we’ll get to that road when or if it happens.”

The line movement on the Broncos-Dolphins game has been dropping since Monday. More than 10,000 tickets have been sold for Sunday’s game since Tebow was announced as the starter. For some reason, the Dolphins will be honoring the 2008 Florida Gators National Championship team on the field where the Miami Hurricanes play.

The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites at the Hilton on Monday and are now currently pick’em with bettors almost feeling like this will be a neutral site field, not to mention the Dolphins are 0-5 this season. The MGM opened Miami -2 and are now at -1.

“We haven’t seen any large action on Denver,” said Rood. “It’s been all small money on the Broncos thus far; we’re heavily weighted with them on the parlays.”

Coast Resorts currently has Denver as a 1-point favorite.

Of the 13 games this week, nine of them are 3 ½-point favorites or lower making the game appear to be very competitive. However, it could be argued that this is the ugliest lineup of games in NFL history. All the popular teams are off this week. New England, Philadelphia, San Francisco and the New York Giants all have byes along with the improved and exciting Cincinnati and Buffalo squads.

With there being so many low point-spreads and the popular teams all having byes, you can virtually guarantee that the sports book have a winning week. The public will have a difficult time being on the same sides in six to seven games as they normally do with teams favored by 6-points or more.

The one team everyone is already on is the Packers who opened as 8-point favorites at the Hilton and are now -9 ½. Coast Resorts currently has the Packers -10 (EVEN) and by kickoff, you can expect every other sports book to be at -10 or higher. Get it now if jumping on the cheese wagon this week.

“The Packers are already our biggest decision of the week,” said Rood who currently has them -9. “This is a massive game from all angles: straight bets, parlays and teasers.”

Whatever risk is left over from the awful early games will almost all be tied in with the Packers against the Vikings in the later game. Even if the Packers cover, the sports books should still have a decent day. Should the Vikings cover, or even better, make the Packers not cover the teasers, the sports books will have a monster day.

Usually the Sunday and Monday games are supposed to be feature games we look forward to, but it’s much of the same blah-blah from the first 11 games with the Colts and Jaguars being participants.

The Saints have dropped from 14-point favorites to 13 ½ on news that six-time All-Pro Center Olin Kreutz called it quits, saying he left the team because it just wasn’t in his heart to play anymore.

“We didn’t get any Colts money, I just dropped it a half on news of their starting center walking away,“ said Rood.

Regardless of bad the schedule is this week, it’s still the NFL and we all love it. Have fun and good luck!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL | PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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NFL | SAN DIEGO at NY JETS
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (SAN DIEGO) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, after the first month of the season
194-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.5% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after a win by 6 or less points
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 7's biggest betting mismatches

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5, 43.5)

Bears itinerary vs. Bucs itinerary

Tampa Bay hopped across the pond in 2009 to play New England. That go round, the Bucs viewed the London trip as a normal road game. They left Friday and arrived Saturday morning for the Sunday evening affair.

They were pummeled by the Pats (35-7), who had arrived 17 hours earlier. Donald Penn said he felt like a zombie during the beating.

“I slept all day Saturday the last time I was there,” said Penn. “I was tired. It took a lot out of me the last time. It’s a big-time adjustment.”

Penn was pleased that Tampa brass opted for a different travel itinerary this time. The Bucs left Monday, got their sight-seeing done Tuesday and were practicing on London time Wednesday.

The Bears decided to stay in Chicago to practice. This is far from a normal week but Lovie Smith is preparing his guys like it is.

They won’t be eating fish and chips until Friday. You know some guys will want to check out the London night life that evening. Two days doesn’t give much time to acclimate the Bears’ internal clocks to the six-hour time difference.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 44.5)

Texans offense vs. Titans defense

Houston has a problem without Andre Johnson. The Texans are averaging 17.0 points per since their best offensive player went down with a hamstring injury.

The loss of Johnson has affected the running game too. Arian Foster is averaging just over three yards a tote over the last two weeks. Play-action plays suffer without a legit ground attack.

“We’re getting played different,” Gary Kubiak said. “There’s a level of consistency when Andre’s on the field with what people try to do.”

Owen Daniels and Foster are Houston’s leading receivers after Johnson. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones simply aren’t stepping up as needed.

The Titans are holding teams to an average of 221.0 passing yards per game. They rank ninth in total defense (326.0 ypg), tenth in rush defense (105.0 ypg) and sixth in scoring defense (18.8 ppg) this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, 42.5)

Steelers pass offense vs. Cardinals pass defense

After losing corner Greg Toler prior to the season, half the Cardinals secondary became very young and very vulnerable. After a Week 2 loss to Washington, Ken Whisenhunt called the performance of second-year player A.J. Jefferson and rookie Patrick Patterson a "comedy of errors."

Adrian Wilson is playing through a torn biceps and Arizona’s other safety, Kerry Rhodes, will be out a few weeks after breaking his foot before the bye.

A depleted and inexperienced secondary is not where you want to be against Pittsburgh. As Teddy Sevransky noted: This big-play, downfield passing game is simply too strong. Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are arguably the most underrated big-play wide receiver trio in the league.

Mike Tomlin said this week that the Steelers have to “perform better on the road” if they want to be a contender. The Desert is the perfect place to get back on track.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5, 41.5)

Ravens defense vs. Blaine Gabbert

Three weeks ago the brash Rex Ryan begged the question, “Are you going to run it against Haloti Ngata over and over and against Ray Lewis?”

The answer was no. The Jets ran for 38 yards that night. The glaring problem for the Jags this week… running is the only thing they do well.

Jacksonville ranks last in the AFC in scoring (12.0 ppg) and last in the NFL in yardage (260.3 ypg). The Jags have six touchdowns in six games and have only ventured inside their opponents’ 20-yard line six times.

Blaine Gabbert is playing like a rookie -- jittery, holding onto the ball too long, making ill-advised throws. More of the same could be in store Monday night against the best defense in football.

Baltimore has recorded 11 sacks and 26 hits over the last three games. Gabbert has been sacked 11 times and hit 16 times in that same sampling.

Maurice Jones-Drew had 78 yards on 23 the carries the last time he saw the Ravens, when a veteran quarterback was under center.

“Anytime we make you one-dimensional, then we can pretty much get after your quarterback the way we dictated," Lewis recently said. "We really pride ourselves on stopping the run.”

[StarDust Bum]

Today's Games Trends:


San Diego:

Over is 28-11-4 in SD last 43 road games.
Over is 7-3-1 in SD last 11 games in October.

N.Y. Jets:

Over is 6-2 in NYJ last 8 games in October.
Over is 22-8 in NYJ last 30 games overall.
Over is 21-8-1 in NYJ last 30 vs. AFC

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Denver:

Over is 7-1 in DEN last 8 games in October.
Over is 8-2-1 in DEN last 11 games in Week 7.
Over is 20-6 in DEN last 26 games overall.

Miami:

MIA are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in MIA last 8 games as a home underdog.
MIA are 17-47-1 ATS in their last 65 home games.

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Chicago:

Under is 7-2 in CHI last 9 road games.
Under is 9-3 in CHI last 12 games in Week 7.
Over is 7-3 in CHI last 10 games on grass.

Tampa Bay:

TB are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in TB last 8 home games.
TB are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

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Houston:

Over is 7-1 in HOU last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 19-8 in HOU last 27 vs. AFC South.

Tennessee:

Under is 9-2 in TEN last 11 vs. AFC South.
Over is 6-2 in TEN last 8 games on grass.
TEN are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 7.

Head to Head:

HOU are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

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Seattle:

Over is 13-3 in SEA last 16 games overall.
Over is 20-8-1 in SEA last 29 games as an underdog.
Over is 36-15 in SEA last 51 games on grass.

Cleveland:

CLE are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
CLE are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
Over is 6-2 in CLE last 8 home games.

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Washington:

Under is 7-1 in WAS last 8 games on grass.
Under is 8-2 in WAS last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-3-1 in WAS last 15 games in October.

Carolina:

Under is 10-2 in CAR last 12 games in Week 7.
CAR are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 16-5 in CAR last 21 games as a favorite.

Head to Head:

Underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

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Atlanta:

Over is 6-1-1 in ATL last 8 road games.
Over is 6-2 in ATL last 8 games as a road underdog.
Over is 11-5-2 in ATL last 18 games overall.

Detroit:

DET are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC.
Over is 8-3-1 in DET last 12 games in October.
Over is 13-5-1 in DET last 19 games overall.

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Kansas City:

KC are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 7.
KC are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Over is 17-8-2 in KC last 27 games in October.

Oakland:

OAK are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC West.
Under is 6-2-1 in OAK last 9 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-2 in OAK last 8 vs. AFC West.

Head to Head:

Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
KC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Oakland.

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Pittsburgh:

PIT are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Over is 7-3 in PIT last 10 games overall.
PIT are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Arizona:

Over is 23-9 in ARI last 32 home games.
Over is 20-8 in ARI last 28 games in October.
ARI are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

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St. Louis:

STL are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 7-3 in STL last 10 games in Week 7.

Dallas:

Over is 10-1 in DAL last 11 home games.
Over is 9-1 in DAL last 10 games as a favorite.
Over is 8-1 in DAL last 9 games as a home favorite.

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Green Bay:

Under is 8-1 in GB last 9 games as a road favorite.
GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
GB are 11-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Minnesota:

MIN are 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
MIN are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.
Over is 9-3 in MIN last 12 games in October.

Head to Head:

Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.
GB are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

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Indianapolis:

Over is 13-3 in IND last 16 road games.
IND are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
IND are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 road games.

New Orleans:

NO are 2-10 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 10-4-1 in NO last 15 games in Week 7.

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Baltimore:

Over is 6-2 in BAL last 8 road games.
BAL are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 7.
BAL are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Jacksonville:

JAC are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Mon. games.
JAC are 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 12-5 in JAC last 17 vs. AFC.

Head to Head: Over is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET San Diego +1 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 43.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +3 500 ( Morning Blowout )
Cleveland - Over 41 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -4 500
Detroit - Over 47 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +1.5 500
Carolina - Under 43.5 500 ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500 ( NFC NORTH POD )
Tampa Bay - Under 43.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -1 500
Miami - Over 41.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -3 500
Tennessee - Under 44 500

Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City +3.5 500 ( AFC WEST SHOCKER )
Oakland - Under 41.5 500

Green Bay - 4:15 PM ET Green Bay -9.5 500
Minnesota - Over 46.5 500

St. Louis - 4:15 PM ET St. Louis +13.5 500
Dallas - Over 43 500

Indianapolis - 8:20 PM ET Indianapolis +13.5 500
New Orleans - Under 49.5 500

[Kaptain]

give em Holy Hell today BUM......as always, thanks

[StarDust Bum]

Sorry Kapt and the Rest of Ya....i sucked donkey dicks in the morning games.............

[StarDust Bum]

And the afternoon games......a complete fucked up day.....

[StarDust Bum]

Jaguars Face Long Odds At Baltimore Ravens

In a game where the Baltimore Ravens seemingly have every advantage except playing on their home field, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to their running game and defense to keep them competitive on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens (4-1) jumped up to No. 3 in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll while the Jaguars (1-5) are dead last at No. 32.

Jacksonville was at an even bigger disadvantage though last week against another AFC North title contender and managed to cover the spread in a 17-13 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 12 ½-point underdogs. The Jaguars are as high as 10-point home dogs this week according to the Don Best odds screen after opening at +8 ½.

The total has also moved from 38 to 40.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert will make his prime-time debut for Jacksonville and go against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. Gabbert has completed just under 50 percent of his passes in five games with four touchdowns passes, two interceptions and two fumbles lost. The former Mizzou star was mistake-free against the Steelers but threw for just 109 yards on 12-of-26 passing as the Jaguars relied heavily on running back Maurice Jones-Drew.

That will likely be the case again on Monday night, as Jones-Drew is ranked third in the NFL in rushing with 572 yards.

Baltimore last played Jacksonville in 2008 and won 27-7 at home as a 10-point favorite. The Ravens are coming off an impressive 29-14 home victory against the Houston Texans, covering as 7-point favorites, but their offense stalled in the red zone as they had to settle for five Billy Cundiff field goals. Pittsburgh found a lot of success running the ball against the Jaguars with Rashard Mendenhall rushing for a season-high 146 yards and one touchdown.

The key for Baltimore to beat the spread is to get ahead by a few scores early, although the Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and saw Jacksonville score the final 10 points of the game. However, the Ravens have a better vertical passing game than Pittsburgh and should be able to attack deep with wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.

They also have a very dangerous weapon in RB Ray Rice, who is one of two backs in the NFL with more than 300 yards rushing and receiving.

The Jaguars may be even weaker defensively if third-leading tackler Dawan Landry is limited due to a thigh injury. The former Baltimore safety was upgraded to probable on the injury report, but his presence and ability to make plays in the secondary will be critical to Jacksonville’s success.

The weather should not be a factor as the game-time temperature will be around 68 degrees with a 10 percent chance of rain.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Ravens at Jaguars

October 23, 2011


The Week 7 card wraps up in north Florida on Monday night as the struggling Jaguars (1-5) host the red-hot Ravens (4-1). Baltimore has an opportunity over the next two weeks to pad its record to 6-1 and help its cause to receive the top seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is trying to get its offense started up against one of the league's top defensive units.

The Jaguars have scored 13 points or less in four of five losses since an opening week victory over the Titans. In fact, Jack Del Rio's team has reached the end zone just five times during this five-game skid, including one touchdown in a 17-13 setback at Pittsburgh last Sunday. The only good news that came out of that loss was Jacksonville cashed as 12 ½-point underdogs after cutting a 17-0 deficit to four in the final five minutes.

The Ravens received a reality check after an embarrassing Week 2 defeat at Tennessee, 26-13 as 5 ½-point favorites. Baltimore rebounded nicely with three double-digit victories over the Rams, Jets, and Texans, while covering each game with ease. John Harbaugh's squad held a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of last week's win over Houston prior to a 13-point outburst in the final 15 minutes to cash as seven-point favorites.

Baltimore is known for being a hungry defensive team, but the Ravens are one of the league's top 'over' plays through the first six weeks. In fact, the Ravens eclipsed the 'over' in each of the first four games, but barely finished 'under' the total of 43 ½ in a 29-14 victory over Houston. On the flip side, the Jaguars are 5-1 to the 'under,' with the lone 'over' coming in a surprising shootout against the Bengals in a 30-20 loss.

This rookie class of quarterbacks has several players looking to make impacts, including Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert. The former Missouri signal-caller is 0-4 as a starter since replacing Luke McCown beginning in Week 3 at Carolina, while completing just 48.8% of his passes. Jacksonville has thrown for the second-fewest touchdowns (4) in the league, while owning the least amount of passing yards (826).

Baltimore doesn't throw it around as many may think, completing just 89 passes through five games (Jacksonville is right behind with 83 completions). The Ravens have balanced things nicely with a sound running game by averaging 121 yards/game on the ground (12th in league), while Ray Rice racked up over 100 yards for the second time this season in the victory over Houston.

Harbaugh has gotten his team up for Monday night affairs since taking over as head coach in 2008 by posting a 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU mark. The only defeat came in an overtime setback at Pittsburgh in his first season, but the Ravens took the money as six-point 'dogs, 23-20. In fact, the Ravens haven't hosted a Monday night contest under Harbaugh, while coming off road wins over the Jets and Texans last season.

The Ravens have put together a solid record as a road favorite since 2008 with an 8-4 ATS mark. Six of those victories are against non-division foes, while going 3-1 ATS as road 'chalk' of seven points or more. Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS the last five games in the home underdog role, including losses to Cincinnati and New Orleans this season.

The Jaguars are playing their fourth game under the Monday night lights since 2007, coming off three blowout losses to Indianapolis ('07), Houston ('08), and Tennessee ('10). The ugliest defeat came last season against the Titans as three-point home 'dogs, 30-3, as Jacksonville had won its previous two games prior to that home blowout.

Baltimore is listed as a heavy 9 ½-point road favorite, while the number is creeping up to 10 as several outfits. The total is set at 40 across the board with several 39 ½'s hanging out as the weather should be nice with temperatures in the low 70's. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from EverBank Field.

[StarDust Bum]

Post-Bye Week Struggles

October 24, 2011


The bye weeks always seemed like a good time to rest and recuperate, but this season the open date is putting teams at a disadvantage for their next game. Through two weeks, 12 teams coming off the bye own a 3-9 straight-up and 4-7-1 record against the spread. Six more clubs (Giants, Bills, Bengals, 49ers, Patriots, and Eagles) play with rest this week, but how will the bye affect them? Let's take a look at how this trend is profitable this season.

Week 6

Redskins (+3) at Eagles - LOSS

Washington entered this game at 3-1 against a desperate Philadelphia squad. The Redskins fell behind 20-3 at the half prior to losing, 20-13, while dropping their second divisional game of the season. Mike Shanahan's team has lost four consecutive games off the bye dating back to 2008.

Rams (+14) at Packers - LOSS

St. Louis' offense has been dreadful all season long, but a week off to prepare for the defending Super Bowl Champions meant nothing. The Packers jumped out to a 24-0 lead as Green Bay cruised to a 24-3 victory. After losing at Dallas on Sunday, the Rams are 0-6 SU/ATS, the only team in the league that has lost every game against the spread.

Ravens (-7) vs. Texans - WIN

Baltimore improved to a perfect 4-0 ATS following the bye week under John Harbaugh after pulling away late from Houston, 29-14. The Ravens scored 13 points in the final quarter to cash as a touchdown favorite, while moving to 3-0 SU/ATS at home this season.

Browns (+6 ½) at Raiders - LOSS

Cleveland felt on top of the world following a 2-1 start, but after an embarrassing home setback to the Titans, the Browns needed to regroup. Pat Shurmur's club fell behind, 24-7 at Oakland before scoring 10 late points to lose 24-17. The Browns played on the road after the bye for just the second time since 2005, as Cleveland picked up a 27-20 victory at St. Louis in its 10-6 season of 2007 following the open date.

Cowboys (+6 ½) at Patriots - WIN

Dallas had an excellent opportunity to win this game outright, but a late rally led by Tom Brady helped New England grab a 20-16 victory. The Cowboys managed their second cover in a road loss this season (Jets in Week 1), while improving to 6-1 ATS following the bye week since 2004.

Dolphins (+7) at Jets - LOSS

Miami has been a train-wreck all season long at 0-6, but this loss stung pretty bad as the Dolphins converted just two field goals in a 24-6 defeat to their rivals. The Fins won the previous two road meetings against the Jets, while losing their fourth straight road game dating back to last season.

Week 7

Titans (-3) vs. Texans - LOSS

Tennessee entered Sunday's action leading the AFC South race, but the Titans were quickly humbled by the reeling Texans. Houston jumped out to a 20-0 halftime en route to a 41-7 romp in Nashville to move above the .500 mark. Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in two opportunities as a home favorite, while dropping its second straight game after a 3-1 start.

Broncos (-1) at Dolphins - WIN

Miami was coasting to a 15-0 triumph over Denver, but Tim Tebow's heroics led the Broncos to an improbable 18-15 overtime victory. Denver improved to 2-1 ATS away from the Mile High city, while John Fox has won his fourth straight game off the bye dating back to his days as coach of Carolina.

Chargers (-1) at Jets - LOSS

Many people questioned San Diego's 4-1 start after beating Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver (combined 4-17 entering Week 7). The Chargers headed cross-country and jumped out to a 21-10 advantage, but the Jets rallied back to stun San Diego, 27-21 as short home 'dogs.

Seahawks (+3) at Browns - PUSH

In probably the most unwatchable game of the season, Seattle managed a 'push' in a 6-3 defeat at Cleveland. The Seahawks had a punt-return for a touchdown called back due to a push in the back, while failing to score a touchdown with first goal at the eight. This was Seattle's third game played in the Eastern Time Zone this season, as the Hawks play three of their final four road contests in the Central Time Zone.

Chiefs (+3 ½) at Raiders - WIN

This line moved all the way up to six mid-week, but when the news came out that newly-acquired Carson Palmer wouldn't start and kicker Sebastian Janikowski was injured, the number dropped by nearly a field goal. Kansas City looked strong off the bye with a 28-0 whipping of Oakland, winning for the seventh time in eight tries at the Black Hole.

Cardinals (+4) vs. Steelers - LOSS

This rematch of Super Bowl XLIII turned into a blowout as Pittsburgh took care of Arizona, 32-20. The Cardinals fell to 3-6 in their previous nine home games since last November, while dropping to 2-3 ATS since 2007 after the bye week.

Week 8

Giants (-10) vs. Dolphins
Bills (-5 ½) vs. Redskins
Bengals (-2 ½) at Seahawks
49ers (-9 ½) vs. Browns
Patriots (-2 ½) at Steelers
Eagles (-3 ½) vs. Cowboys

Favorites are 2-2 SU/ATS

Underdogs are 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS