BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS 3 OF THE LAST 4 YEARs

[soxx9]

Bump...so I don't have to dig again

[GOLDENGREEK]

.......

[Goose]

Thanks for posting this and all your plays.

Looks to me like FSU is the play tonight on most of the trends.

[GOLDENGREEK]

PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games

58-36-1, 61.7% since 1980


PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii, West Virginia, Nevada,Auburn,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa, NC State, BC, Oregon



Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite 9-3, 75.0% since 1988

PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS

2008: 5-4 ATS
2009: 5-2 ATS



2010:

Mid Tenn St. *
Utah
Wisconsin
Navy *
Virginia Tech
Florida St. *
Penn St.
South Florida
UCONN
Arkansas
Iowa *

* denotes a team playing a team that won 8 or less games last year

[GOLDENGREEK]

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 18-3 SU, 17-4 ATS ( 2-1 IN 2009)


2010:

LOUISVILLE - 3
TROY - 3
N.ILL - 1.5



2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-3 OVER (avg score 82 ppg) ( 0-1 IN 2009)

2010:

OVER TULSA / HAWAII





Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

1) DD dogs are 17-3 ATS L20 ( 1-0 IN 2009 )

2010:

WASH + 14


Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games



2) MAC teams are 1-8-2 ATS L11 ( 0-3-2 IN 2009 )

2010:
MIDDLE TENN ST + 1

[GOLDENGREEK]

Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 49-24 ATS L9 yrs

East Carolina +7.5
Arizona +5.5
Army +7
USF +4
UcF +7




Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS



None



Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ATS


Unknown



Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10

None



Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 SU,ATS

San Diego State -3
TCU -3
AUBURN -3



Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss. 1-22 ATS

PLAY AGAINST:

BYU
BOISE
MARYLAND
NEB
T.TECH
FLOR
Oklahoma -17
ALA





Sys #7 - From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W. 1-20 ATS


PLAY AGAINST:


AF
WV
TCU
STAN
OHIO ST
Mia OH
NEV
AUB



Sys #8 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ATS

Couldn't find any




Sys # 9 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ATS

Illinois +3
IOWA +3
Northwestern + 9.5





Sys #10- Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 13-37

UNDERS:

UTEP-BYU
No. Illinois-Fresno State
Ohio-Troy
Utah-Boise State
Navy-San Diego State
Tulsa-Hawaii
Florida Int.-Toledo
Army-SMU
Middle Tennessee-Miami (OH)

[GOLDENGREEK]

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls
2009-010 record: 3-1: Wyoming +10 (W), SMU +11 (W), BC +7.5 (L), Stanford +10 (W)

Historical record: 57-28-3 (67%) since 1983; Z-factor 3.1
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

UTEP +11.5
Utah +17
Tulsa +10
East Carolina +7.5*** WATCH THIS LINE
Army +8
Washington +14

[GOLDENGREEK]

dogs getting 8 or more and favs giving 6 or less


2003-04 season
dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ats 70%
favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ats 60%
for a total of 16-9 ats 64% winners

2004-05 season
dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ats 78%
favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
for a total of 17-9 ats 64% winners

2005-06 season
dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ats 93%
favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ats 58%
for a total of 20-6 ats 77% winners

2006-07 season
dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ats 64%
favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ats 42%
for a total of 17-16 ats 52% winners

2007-08 season
dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ats 70%
favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ats 65%
for a total of 23-11 ats 68% winners

2008-09 season
dogs of 7 or better went 6-4 ats 60%
favs of 6.5 or better went 15-11 58%


2009-2010 season
dogs of 7 or better went 3-3
favs of 6.5 or better went 6-13-2



*includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5


.


** watch the lines-- these may change:

UTEP + 11.5
N. ILLINOIS - 1.5
TROY - 3
LOUISVILLE - 3
UTAH + 17
SD ST - 5.5
TULSA + 10
Fla Int - 1
AIR FORCE - 3
W VIRG - 3
MIZZOU - 3
BAYLOR - 1.5
OK ST - 5
ARMY + 8
SYRACUSE -1
NC - 2
WASH + 14
CLEMSON - 5
MIAMI -3
NW + 9.5
MICH ST + 10
MISS ST - 4.5
TCU - 2.5
UCONN + 17
STANFORD - 3
OHIO ST - 3.5
MIAMI OHIO - 1
LSU - 1
PITT - 3
BC + 9.5
AUBURN - 2.5


for these below u can buy a point either way to fit into either system ( dog or fav )


MARYLAND/ E.CAROLINA
GEORGIA / CENTAL FLOR
FLOR / PENN ST

[GOLDENGREEK]

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

2009-10 record: 5-2: Wyoming +10 (W), Marshall +3 (W), North Carolina +1 (L), Air Force +4.5 (W) Stanford +10 (W), Florida State +3 (W), Michigan State +9.5 (L)
Historical record: 70-36-2 (66%) since 1997; Z-factor 3.3
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

Fresno State +1
Ohio +2.5
Utah +17
Navy +4.5
Toledo +1
Georgia Tech +3
NC State +3
Illinois +1
Arizona +5
Washington +14
Notre Dame +3
Wisconsin +2.5
Arkansas +3.5
Texas A&M +1
Boston College +9.5

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM

STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. ( 2007 ) We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams OVERALL in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog


2007: 10-4 ATS
2008: 9-5 ATS
2009: 7-4 ATS

2010:

Ohio +1.5
Navy +5
Ga Tech +3
Iowa +1
Illinois +1.5
Syracuse +1
UCONN +17
MTSU +1.5
Texas A&M +1.5


Notre Dame, Michigan St, & Michigan's run numbers are very close to Miami, Alabama & Miss. St.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

2007: 33-14 ATS
2008: 29-12 ATS
2009: 28-23 ATS



BROKEN DOWN BY SYSTEM:


2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH

2007: 2-3 ATS
2008: 2-5 ATS
2009: 4-4-1 ATS


2010:

UTEP + 11.5
SYRACUSE +1
NOTRE DAME + 3
NORTHWESTERN + 9.5
PENN ST + 7.5
FLORIDA ST + 3


3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:


2007: 19-7 ATS
2008: 12- 3 ATS
2009: 8-5 ATS


2010:

3 UNITS FRESNO ST + 1.5
3 UNITS UTAH + 17
3 UNITS GTECH + 3
3 UNITS NC ST + 3
3 UNITS IOWA + 3
3 UNITS ECAR + 7
3 UNITS ILLINOIS + 1.5
3 UNITS ARIZONA + 5
3 UNITS TENN + 3
3 UNITS WASH + 14
3 UNITS MICH + 4.5
3 UNITS WISKY + 2
3 UNITS UCONN + 17
3 UNITS ARK + 3.5
3 UNITS MIDDLE TENN + 1
3 UNITS TEX A & M + 1
3 UNITS KENTUCKY + 3
3 UNITS BC + 9.5




5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units


2007: 10-2
2008: 8-1 OR 8-2
2009: 6-3


2010:

5 UNITS TROY ON THE MONEYLINE ( OPENED AS A PICK )
5 UNITS LOUIVILLE ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS CLEMSON ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS GEORGIA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS ALABAMA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS SD ST ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS on FLA INT on the moneyline


Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-2 ATS
2008: 5-3 ATS
2009: 6-3 ATS


2010:

UTAH + 17
FLOR ST + 3
UCONN + 17
WISKY + 2
V TECH + 3
ARKANSAS + 3.5
TEX A & M + 1
OREGON + 2.5



Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-0 ATS
2008: 1-1 ATS
2009: 2-3 ATS

2010:

ALABAMA -10



A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

2007: 6-0 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-3 ATS


2010:

IOWA + 3
ARIZONA + 5
WASH + 14
NC ST + 3
TULSA + 10.5
MICHIGAN + 5
BOSTON COLLEGE + 9.5






A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

2007: 1-1 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-2 ATS

2010:

GEORGIA - 6.5

[GOLDENGREEK]

********* updated records**********

[hrojeda]

bump

[Spark]

Thanks Dino ... Good Luck this bowl season