BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS 3 OF THE LAST 4 YEARs

[BaldTacoLover]

thanks for your work on this!

[soxx9]

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf (under went 8-2 last year...always seems to be an annual winner)

Buffalo-SJState
Tulane-ULLafayette
EastCarolina-Ohio
NIllinois-UtahSt
Navy-MidTennSt
NorthTexas-UNLV
BallSt-ArkansasSt

[soxx9]

Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs....

UtahSt.
Georgia Tech
Houston

[soxx9]

Dogs in bowl games that won prior year (* - playing team that won 8 or less games last year)

Toledo*
SMU*
Baylor*(may not be a dog)
Ohio*
Rutgers
Texas*
MichiganSt
NCState*
Purdue
Michigan
NIllinois
Oklahoma*

Dogs in bowl games that won prior year - playing team that won 8 or less games last year (looking above at the * games - this was 6-1 on the ML last year)

UL Lafayette
Ohio
Syracuse
BYU
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Texas Tech
Rice
South Carolina
Central Florida
Oklahoma St.


(for those that would want the non * games trend from prior years - BoiseSt, UtahSt, Texas, VirginiaTech, MichiganSt, ArkansasSt)

[soxx9]

Annual bump....so I don't have to dig again

[GOLDENGREEK]

Hey guys...have a favor to ask of you. I simply have no time..not being lazy..working about 70 hrs a week...if anyone has done these or is willing to do them please help a brother out..i did these and posted them for 3-4 yrs in a row..if ayone has the time and would like to return the favor plz help a brother out:

P.S...INCLUDE THE GAMES THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN PLAYED SO WE CAN SEE HOW EACH SYSTEM IS DOING !!
PPS...PLEASE MAKE SURE TO DISTINGUISH WHO TO PLAY "ON" OR "AGAINST"





2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record






3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:





5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units





Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams





Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams





A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:






A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team





Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year





RUNNING DOG SYSTEM





BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS

PLAY OKLAHOMA






Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents






Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls






Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31







Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm.






Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg






Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10






Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts.





Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss





From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W





Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins.





Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts.





Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf





Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

1) PLAY ON Favs of 3.5< pts






2) PLAY THE OVER...Totals of 63.5> pts





Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

1) PLAY ON Double Digit dogs






Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

1) PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games





2) PLAY AGAINST MAC teams are 1-8-2 ATS L11 ( 0-3-2 IN 2009 )




PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year





Play on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.





PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games
Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite





Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs
PLAY ON:




...

[Pitt37]

Looks like Wash is a big play today....

[Alafan]

Bump

[Thomasj]

Hey guys great bit of information here and I say thanks for all the time and effort as it's much appreciated. I shake my head though when I see a post saying I wish someone would just post the plays everyday, I mean really you guys do all this work and then they want you to tell em what to play. Bizarre

[soxx9]

JC - They still fall into the system. I just seperated them for my purposes (most of the teams only had a +0.1 or +0.2 RYPA advantage over the team that is favored)

[jcindaville]

Running Dogs....

Differential >=.5 YPC
San Diego St
Bowling Green
Baylor(if dog)
Navy
Texas
Georgia Tech
Tulsa
Northwestern
Michigan
Nebraska
Wisconsin

<.5 YPC differential
Ball St, C Mich, Mich St, Clemson, Kent St.

So what do the last teams mean?

[soxx9]

Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs....

Washington
Rutgers
Rice
Northwestern

(UCLA would fit if they end up an underdog)

[soxx9]

Running Dogs....

Differential >=.5 YPC
San Diego St
Bowling Green
Baylor(if dog)
Navy
Texas
Georgia Tech
Tulsa
Northwestern
Michigan
Nebraska
Wisconsin

<.5 YPC differential
Ball St, C Mich, Mich St, Clemson, Kent St.

[soxx9]

PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games
Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite

SMU (play against Fresno State)

[soxx9]

Dogs in bowl games that won prior year (* - playing team that won 8 or less games last year)

Toledo*
SMU*
Baylor*(may not be a dog)
Ohio*
Rutgers
Texas*
MichiganSt
NCState*
Purdue
Michigan
NIllinois
Oklahoma*