The Bum's BCS Best Bets Bowl GOY, News, Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR !

Monday, January 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

Virginia Tech - 8:30 PM ET Stanford -3.5 500
Stanford - Under 59 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends, Part III
January 3, 2011

ARKANSAS vs. OHIO STATE (Sugar, Jan. 4)...Tressel has covered last 2 and 6 of his last 8 bowl games. OSU also 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 TY and was 9-2-1 vs. line in '010, and Tressel 23-5-1 vs. spread last 29 on board. OSU a solid 9-3 vs. line in 2010 and 8-2 as chalk this season. Buckeyes, however, 0-7 SU and vs. line in bowl games vs. SEC since '92, back to the John Cooper regime. Petrino, 11-3 last 14 as dog, and Arkansas just as hot as OSU in 20-10, winning and covering last 6, and 9-1 vs. line last 10 TY. SEC 16-9 vs. line in bowls since '07. Tech edge- Arkansas, based on team and conference trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI-OHIO (GoDaddy.com Bowl, Jan. 6)...MTSU only 4-8 vs. line TY but did win and cover its last two in reg. season. MAC teams 0-10 vs. line in bowls the past two years. Note Miami-O "under" 11-2 TY, and Blue Raiders "under" 8-4 in 2010. Tech edge-"Under" and MTSU, based on "totals" and MAC bowl trends.

TEXAS A&M vs. LSU (Cotton, Jan. 7)...A&M closed hot with wins and covers in its last 6 games. Aggies, however, are 0-3 SU and vs. line against SEC teams (Arkansas & Georgia) the past two seasons. Ags also no wins or covers last 4 bowls dating back to '01 vs. TCU in GalleryFurniture.com Bowl (remember that one?). Les Miles 4-0-1 vs. number in bowls with LSU. Tech edge-LSU, based on recent bowl and A&M vs. SEC history.

KENTUCKY vs. PITTSBURGH (BBVA Compass Bowl, Jan. 8)...'Stache likely to coach this one, and he's 0-2 SU and vs. line last two years in bowls. Meanwhile, UK 3-1 SU its last 4 bowls, although Cats just 1-4 SU and vs. line for Joker Phillips down stretch TY. UK, however, is 12-3 vs. points last 15 vs. non-SEC FBS foes, and Cats 15-6 "over" their last 21 on board. Tech edge-UK and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. NEVADA (Kraft, Jan. 9)...Wolf Pack has lost its last 4 bowls SU and is just 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls since '05. Pack also just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-WAC foes away from Reno. BC, however, has failed to cover its last four bowls since Tom O'Brien departed, although Eagles did cover their last four away from home TY. Spaziani only 5-6 last 11 as dog, and note Eagles also played in this bowl LY. Tech edge-slight to Nevada, based on recent BC bowl woes.

OREGON vs. AUBURN (BCS title game at Glendale, AZ, Jan. 10)...Not much recent bowl history either way, both failed to cover in their bowls LY. Ducks only 4-4 vs. line their last 8 bowls, the same for Auburn. UO only 3-3 vs. line away from home TY, while Auburn 5-1. Tigers also covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 TY. SEC teams have won and covered last 4 BCS title games. Ducks "over" 20-9 last 29 on board, Tigers "over" 16-7 since Gene Chizik took over LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Auburn, based on "totals" and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Stanford, Virginia Tech look to extend win streaks

ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (11-2)
vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (11-1)

Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL
Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 3, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -3.5, Total: 58.5

Two teams riding long winning streaks meet in Miami for Monday’s Orange Bowl. Virginia Tech has won 11 straight since losing to FCS school James Madison in Week 2, and Stanford has put together seven consecutive wins since losing to Oregon in setting school records for overall wins (11) and Pac-10 victories (8). The schools have many similarities. Both teams are among the nation’s three best in turnover margin, and both have top-20 rushing offenses, while ranking 31st and 32nd in passing defense.

Both QBs are also stellar. Stanford’s Andrew Luck has 3,051 passing yards, 28 TD and 7 INT this year while under-appreciated Tyrod Taylor has 2,521 yards, 23 TD and just four interceptions for the Hokies. In 24 career games, Luck has thrown for 41 TD to just 11 INT, including 15 TD/3 INT in his past seven contests. Taylor’s career numbers are also impressive (23 rush TD, 43 pass TD, 19 INT), but he may not be 100 percent Monday night because of an illness. RB Ryan Williams (9 TD in 9 games) is also listed as probable due to a hamstring injury.

In the second half of the season, the Cardinal defense has been outstanding. They are allowing just 12.0 PPG, 96 rushing YPG and sporting a +12 turnover margin (16 takeaways, 4 giveaways). Virginia Tech has not been as consistent on defense, allowing three of its past seven opponents to rush for 250+ yards.

Virginia Tech is 9-14 in its bowl history, including a 1-2 record at the Orange Bowl. In its previous Orange Bowl appearance in 2008, the Hokies beat Cincinnati 20-7. Stanford is 9-10-1 in its 20 all-time bowls, but the Cardinal’s last victory came in the 1996 Sun Bowl. They have dropped three straight since then, including last year’s Sun Bowl.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. This Orange Bowl series used be dominated by Favorites, but the Underdogs have played very well recently, posting a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in the past seven contests. The ACC representative is 2-7 ATS in the history of the Orange Bowl. The FoxSheets show two trends siding with Stanford to win and cover:

STANFORD is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992. The average score was STANFORD 34.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (VIRGINIA TECH) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.(32-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +18.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (VIRGINIA TECH) - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. (49-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (71%, +27 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Sugar Bowl Preview Capsule


TUESDAY

No. 6 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (10-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2.

Series Record: First meeting.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

The Buckeyes are winless in nine tries against the SEC in bowl games, and are playing an Arkansas team making its first appearance in a BCS bowl. Ohio State will have star quarterback Terrelle Pryor and three other offensive starters despite earning suspensions for the first five games next season as NCAA-imposed punishment for selling memorabilia and getting discounts on tattoos. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, haven't played in the Sugar Bowl since 1980, and would love to continue the Big Ten's bowl misery that began with an 0-for-5 New Year's Day.

KEY MATCHUP

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett against the Ohio State defense. Mallett is a prototypical drop-back passer who helped the Razorbacks average 338 yards per game through the air. The Buckeyes defense was among the best in the nation all season, allowing just 13.3 points per game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Ohio State: Pryor, RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey. The trio of offensive stars, along with OL Mike Adams and DE Solomon Thomas, were suspended for the first five games of next season for NCAA violations, but have been allowed to play in the bowl game after assuring coach Jim Tressel that they will not skip next season for the NFL draft. Ohio State needs them to have big games - and not be distracted by everything else - to keep up with the Arkansas offense.

Arkansas: RB Knile Davis. Everyone knows to keep an eye on Mallett, but Davis has given Arkansas some balance late in the season. The sophomore has had four straight 100-yard rushing games coming into the Sugar Bowl, including 187 at Mississippi State and 152 against LSU. He's a big reason the Razorbacks have won six straight.

FACTS & FIGURES

Arkansas is making its BCS debut, but coach Bobby Petrino has been here before. He led Louisville to victory in the Orange Bowl after the 2006 season. ... The Razorbacks are 1-4 in the Sugar Bowl, all of those games before the BCS era. ... Mallett has thrown for 7,216 yards and 60 touchdowns over the past two seasons, with nine 300-yard games this year. ... Pryor is 22-3 as the full-time starter the past two seasons, which includes a five-game winning streak to end this past regular season. ... Since Tressel was hired in 2001, Ohio State is 0-3 against the SEC in bowl games - two in national title games - and 5-1 in other bowl games. ... The Buckeyes are playing in their first Sugar Bowl since beating Texas A&M 24-14 after the 1998 season.

[StarDust Bum]

Sugar Bowl Betting Preview: Ohio State vs Arkansas


The Ohio State Buckeyes look to gain some respect for the Big Ten, and themselves, when they meet the SEC Arkansas Razorbacks in Tuesday night’s Sugar Bowl.

Kickoff from the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans will be 5:30 p.m. (PT) and broadcast on ESPN. Weather is not an issue in the dome. This is the first meeting ever between the schools.

Bookmaker.com has BCS No. 6 Ohio State as three-point favorites (minus 115) with a total of 56 ½-points. Both teams are among the nation’s leaders against the spread.

The SEC is 3-0 straight-up and ATS against the Big Ten this bowl season. Alabama versus Michigan State (49-7) and Mississippi State over Michigan (52-14) were blowouts. Florida broke open a close game late against Penn State (37-24). The Big Ten lost all five of its New Year’s Day games (going 2-3 ATS).

Ohio State (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) is dealing with a big controversy. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron, wide receiver DeVier Posey, left tackle Mike Adams and defensive end Solomon Thomas were all recently disciplined by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits.

The four starters and one reserve (Thomas) are eligible for the Sugar Bowl, but will be suspended for the first five games of next season. Coach Jim Tressel made all five promise they would return next season in order to play on Tuesday, although there’s nothing to guarantee they won’t change their mind.

The Buckeyes went 8-0 SU and ATS at home this year. Their tougher games came mostly on the road where they went 3-1 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. That includes a 31-18 loss at Wisconsin on October 16 that dropped them from No. 1 in the country.

Pryor threw for just 156 yards at Wisconsin and had a quarterback rating of 121.2 away, compared to 176.3 at home. He threw eight picks in his last six games, versus three in the first six.

Ohio State has a more potent offense than given credit for, ranked 11th nationally (39.4 PPG). Herron led the way with 1,068 rushing yards, with the dual threat Pryor adding 639. Posey was the second-leading receiver (778 yards) behind Dane Sanzenbacher (889).

The defense ranked second nationally in yards allowed (250.6 YPG) and third in points (13.3 PPG). However, it didn’t play a lot of high powered offenses.

Tressel is in his 10th year as the Buckeyes coach and this is their sixth consecutive BCS bowl. They broke a three-game losing streak (1-2 ATS) last year with a 26-17 win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl as 4 ½-point ‘dogs.

Tressel is 0-3 SU and ATS against the SEC in bowl games. Two were losses in the national title game. Ohio State is 0-9 SU lifetime against the SEC in bowls.

Ohio State played an inspired Rose Bowl last year, but there are questions whether it can duplicate that effort given the controversy swirling around its stars.

No. 8 Arkansas (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) finished the season 6-0 SU (6-0 ATS) to make this bowl. That included wins at No. 19 South Carolina (41-20) and No. 21 Mississippi State (38-31 in double OT), plus home against then-No. 5 LSU (31-23).

Arkansas scores just below Ohio State at 37.3 PPG. Junior quarterback Ryan Mallett leads a passing attack averaging 338.4 YPG (fourth in the country). He likes to spread the ball among multiple receivers, making it harder on the defense.

The Razorbacks are scoring 42.3 PPG the last seven games. The ‘over’ went 6-1 in that span, only going ‘under’ in the final game against LSU.

The Arkansas defense ranks 33rd nationally in yards allowed (339.8 YPG) and 42nd in points (22.8 PPG). The point total was hurt badly by the 65-43 loss at Auburn on Oct. 16. The only other loss was 24-20 to Alabama at home in September. The Razorbacks blew a 20-7 lead late in the third quarter.

Pryor’s running could give Arkansas’ defense some problems, especially after allowing 188 yards rushing to Auburn’s Cam Newton. On the other side, Mallett represents the best passer by far Ohio State has seen this season.

Coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year with Arkansas. This is its first BCS bowl and it could be ‘win now’ time with Mallett likely to declare for the NFL Draft.

[GREEKSTAKINOVER]

Good luck and thanks you work very hard to help us all out with as much info as possible.

[LVJimmy]

I'm assuming you Goy is Stanford?

GL!!!

[BillMill71]

I'm assuming you Goy is Stanford?

GL!!!

Says it in his post.

Good Luck SDB, on them as well

[Ldawg]

I'm assuming you Goy is Stanford?

GL!!!

That's a Rodger there LVSFSJJimmy .
And... gl to all

[StarDust Bum]

CONGRATS TO ALL WHO WAS ONBOARD !

NFL Playoff GOY goes this weekend ..............

[LVJimmy]

Sorry dude, didn't know if you meant Stanford or under...your pick swayed me to Stanford so thanks!!!

[Ldawg]

SDB - number one rule in coattailing Cappers is NOT to try and follow too many . Pick someone good and hang on !! TAG Your it !
Been a fun ride .... wish you continued success !

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio State favored by 3 in Sugar Bowl


SUGAR BOWL
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (10-2)
vs. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-1)

Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Tuesday, Jan. 4, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 57

Two schools riding impressive win streaks meet in New Orleans for Tuesday night’s Sugar Bowl. Ohio State is 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) in its past five games while Arkansas has six straight wins SU and ATS.

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks, but Ohio State has the edge in terms of big-game bowl experience. While Ryan Mallett (30 TD, 11 INT) has one Liberty Bowl worth of postseason experience, Buckeyes QB Terrelle Pryor (25 TD, 11 INT) has already played in the Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl, where he racked up 338 yards of offense and two scores last season. Mallett (3,592 pass yds, 67% completion rate) is a better passer than Pryor (2,551 pass yds, 66% completion rate), but he will miss one of his top receivers, Greg Childs, who will not play due to a knee injury. Childs is tied for the team lead with six touchdowns, is second with 46 catches and third with 659 receiving yards.

OSU is a superior team in many important facets. The Buckeyes national rankings are:
2nd in total defense (251 YPG)
3rd in scoring defense (13.3 PPG)
3rd in turnover margin (+1.17 TO PG)
11th in scoring offense (39.4 PPG)
14th in rushing offense (220 YPG)
The Razorbacks’ corresponding rankings are: 34, 43, 43, 16 and 65.

Pryor, RB Dan Herron, WR DeVier Posey, OL Mike Adams and DE Solomon Thomas were all suspended for the first five games of next season for selling championship memorabilia and receiving improper discount benefits from a tattoo parlor, but all will play in the Sugar Bowl. Jim Tressel may not start these five athletes, but they are all expected to play most of the snaps.

Although bowl history sometimes gives no barometer of what is to happen in a particular year, you have to consider Arkansas’ 12-22-3 all-time bowl record, especially its 3-12 bowl record since 1986. The “just-happy-to-be-here” description could fit Arkansas facing big-bowl machine Ohio State. In nine years with Tressel at the head-coaching helm, OSU has played in two championships, four Fiesta, one Rose, one Outback and now one Sugar. Tressel is 4-1 in non-championship BCS bowls, including last year’s 26-17 Rose Bowl victory over Oregon. However, Ohio State is 0-9 all-time versus SEC teams in bowls.

The 2011 Sugar Bowl is just the second game in the series in the last 13 years with a point spread below 5.5 points. An SEC school has played in every Sugar Bowl since 2001, going 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS). Despite these numbers, the FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends siding with Ohio State to win and cover:

OHIO ST is 13-1 ATS (92.9%, +11.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 35.2, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 5*).

Jim Tressel is 25-7 ATS (78.1%, +17.3 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of OHIO ST. The average score was OHIO ST 31.5, OPPONENT 15.0 - (Rating = 4*).

Florida’s 51-24 trouncing of Cincinnati in last year’s Sugar Bowl eclipsed the total by 16 points. The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over for this year’s installment of the Sugar Bowl.

Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ARKANSAS) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (52-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, January 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arkansas - 8:30 PM ET Ohio State -3 500
Ohio State - Over 57 500

Good Luck Lets Sweep Another one.....