The Bum's BCS Best Bets Bowl GOY, News, Notes !

[Kimpo]

Good job! I was gonna tag with you, but being a dumbarse, I followed the dummy

[StarDust Bum]

MTSU, Miami-OH meet in GoDaddy.com Bowl


GODADDY.COM BOWL
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE BLUE RAIDERS (6-6)
vs. MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS (9-4)

Ladd-Peebles Stadium – Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Thursday, Jan. 6, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Middle Tennessee State -2, Total: 49

Both little-known schools enter the GoDaddy.com Bowl (formerly the GMAC Bowl) with strong winning streaks. Middle Tennessee State won its final three games to become bowl eligible while Miami-Ohio (1-11 in 2009) shocked the nation by running off five wins in a row, capped off by a MAC Championship victory over 19-point-favorite Northern Illinois.

MTSU is led by senior QB Dwight Dasher who averages 230 yards of total offense (173.5 passing). He also has 14 INT in his eight games and is huge reason why the Blue Raiders rank last among all FBS schools in turnover margin per game (-1.33). Dasher has only thrown six touchdown passes this year, but three have come in the past two games. The Blue Raiders have done a nice job rushing the football, ranking 30th in the nation (179 YPG). Senior Phillip Tanner’s 841 rushing yards rank fourth in the Sun Belt and he has scored 11 times. On the defensive side of the ball, MTSU defends the pass very well (191 pass YPG, 22nd in nation) and averages 2.8 sacks per game, ranking 14th in the country.

Miami-Ohio will start sophomore Austin Boucher at QB for the fourth straight game due to Zac Dysert’s bizarre lacerated-spleen injury. Boucher played very well in the MAC Championship, with 333 passing yards and a touchdown. The RedHawks have the seventh-worst rushing offense in the nation (97 YPG), but senior RB Thomas Merriweather has 496 rushing yards and five touchdowns in his past four games. Unlike MTSU, Miami-Ohio has done a great job on the turnover front, ranking 21st in the nation with a +0.6 turnover margin per game. The RedHawks defense is 22nd in the land in yardage (336 YPG) and has only allowed 13.6 PPG during their five-game winning streak.

Middle Tennessee State is making its third bowl appearance, after upsetting Southern Miss in last year’s New Orleans Bowl 42-32. Miami-Ohio is 4-3 in its bowl history with just three appearances since 1976. The RedHawks’ last win came in this bowl series, a 49-28 drubbing of Louisville in 2003.

Despite the nation’s-worst turnover rate, the Blue Raiders only have two total giveaways in its past three games. Look for Dasher to take better care of the football and finish his career with a January bowl win. The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends siding with Middle Tennessee State to get the victory on Thursday night:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on a Thursday. (29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*).

MIDDLE TENN ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1992. The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 32.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Although the past eight Miami-Ohio games have all gone Under the total, the FoxSheets show a five-star reason to bet the Over.

Play Over - Any team against the total (MIAMI OHIO) - off 4 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games. (30-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, January 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas A&M - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M +2.5 500
Louisiana State - Under 49.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Aggies seek 7th straight win facing LSU


COTTON BOWL
TEXAS A&M AGGIES (9-3)
vs. LOUISIANA STATE TIGERS (10-2)

Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Friday, Jan. 7, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -2, Total: 49

Texas A&M brings a six-game win streak (SU and ATS) to the Cotton Bowl to face an LSU team that is two touchdowns away from being undefeated on the year. The Tigers only two losses were to BCS participants Auburn (24-17) and Arkansas (31-23).

Ryan Tannehill has been one of the biggest surprises in college football, as nobody expected him to supplant Jerrod Johnson as the Aggies QB. Tannehill has relished the challenge with 239 passing YPG, 11 TD and 3 INT in his six games (all wins). He has two great receivers in Jeff Fuller (82 rec. YPG, third in Big 12) and Ryan Swope (65 rec. YPG, eighth in Big 12). Fuller has 12 touchdowns with four multi-TD games and Swope has 34 catches in the six games with Tannehill under center. RB Cyrus Gray has been just as impressive as Tannehill during the win streak with 140 rushing YPG and 10 touchdowns.

LSU also has an excellent rusher in junior RB Stevan Ridley who is chewing up yards with 319 and eight touchdowns in his past four games. The Tigers have only thrown 7 TD passes the entire season despite averaging 23.5 pass attempts per game. Jordan Jefferson leads the team with four touchdown tosses, but two of those came in the season opener. LSU boasts one of the best special teams in the land. Patrick Peterson ranks 5th in the country in punt returns (16.1 avg.) and 7th in kick retuns (29.3 avg.). Kicker Josh Jasper leads all FBS booters with 2.2 field goals per game and is an impressive 26-for-31 (84%) on FG tries this season.

Although A&M held Nebraska to six points two games ago, LSU has the superior defense here, ranking eighth in the nation in yards (302 YPG) and 10th in points (17.8 PPG). The Aggies defense ranks 51st in yardage (358 YPG) and 26th in scoring (20.3 PPG).

LSU will be making its 42nd bowl appearance (21-19-1 record) and fifth trip to the Cotton Bowl (2-1-1 record). Texas A&M is 13-18 in 31 all-time bowls and the Aggies have not won a bowl game since the 2001 Gallery Furniture Bowl, dropping four straight bowls. The Tigers have a long past with Texas A&M and this will be their 50th meeting. The two schools last met in 1995 and they also played each other in the 1944 Orange Bowl, a 19-14 LSU win. LSU leads the all-time series 26-20-3 (57%).

The SEC has owned the Cotton Bowl series recently, going 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games. The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends siding with LSU to keep the SEC rolling in this series with a victory on Friday night:

TEXAS A&M is 4-18 ATS (18.1%, -15.8 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992. The average score was TEXAS A&M 17.9, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 3*).

LSU is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was LSU 28.0, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 2*).

The Under is 6-1 in the past seven Cotton Bowl games and 12-3 since 1995. The FoxSheets give another reason to bet the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (TEXAS A&M, LSU) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (39-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.2%, +22.5 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Butler looks to regroup vs. 15-1 Cleveland State


CLEVELAND STATE VIKINGS (15-1)

at BUTLER BULLDOGS (10-5)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Butler -6, Total: 132

Could there be a new team on top of the Horizon? Just about this time a year ago the defending Horizon League champion Butler Bulldogs were 3 games into their amazing 25-game win streak that ended the 2010 season, culminating in the most famous miss in NCAA Championship game history. They finished the season undefeated in league play, and outside of an overtime win over Detroit, and a one-point squeakers at Loyola, the Bulldogs were barely threatened. This year has been a different story. Butler struggled early to gain their footing in and out of conference play, and now it is trying to do something that it never had to do all of last season: bounce back from a shellacking in league play. Monday night the Panthers of Wisconsin-Milwaukee ended Butler’s 22-game conference win streak with a 76-52 home victory. Friday in Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler finds itself in an early-season statement game against an upstart Cleveland State Vikings squad that has streaked to a 15-1 start that includes a perfect 4-0 mark in Horizon League play.

The Vikings are paced by senior guard Norris Cole (20.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 SPG), a speedy backcourt player with a dazzling set of skills. Junior guard Trevon Harmon (13.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.1 SPG) combines nicely with Cole to generate steals and generally wreak havoc on opposing backcourts. Harmon is also shooting an impressive 38% from beyond the three-point line. Throw in junior Jeremy Montgomery and the Vikings boast a trio of experienced starting guards that have carried coach Gary Waters’ team so far this season. Last year Cleveland State lost its two meetings versus Butler by an average of 10.0 PPG, but will be looking to reverse that trend starting on Friday night.

The Bulldogs will be eager to bounce back from a lackluster performance in Milwaukee where they shot just under 39% for the game, and allowed a competitive game to get out of control after the Panthers went on a 15-2 second-half run. Senior forward Matt Howard (17.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG) leads the Bulldogs in scoring and rebounding, while junior guard Shelvin Mack is averaging 14.4 PPG, the highest mark in his three-year career. Howard and Mack are the only two Bulldogs scoring in double figures, so it will be especially crucial for Howard to stay out of foul trouble in this contest. In 15 games, Howard has committed 45 personal fouls, while fouling out of two games.

Each team is nearly identical in terms of scoring (CSU 73.3 PPG to Butler’s 72.9) assists (Butler 12.2 to CSU 12.1) and rebounding (CSU 35.3 to Butler’s 34.9). The difference in such a tight game could come down to the guard play, where the Vikings dynamic trio will try and outplay a team whose guards know what its like to perform on the Final Four stage.

The Vikings have covered the spread in their past three trips to Butler and this FoxSheets trend likes Cleveland State to cover the spread again on Friday.

Play On - An underdog (CLEVELAND ST) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. (193-119 since 1997.) (61.9%, +62.1 units. Rating = 2*).

And these two FoxSheets trends expect the game to finish Over the total.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CLEVELAND ST) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more. (56-20 since 1997.) (73.7%, +34 units. Rating = 3*).

BUTLER is 17-4 OVER (81.0%, +12.6 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BUTLER 69.3, OPPONENT 65.5 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hornets seek rare win in Los Angeles


NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (21-15)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (25-11)


Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -8, Total: 189

Two teams that got off to fast starts and have stumbled of late meet Friday night in Los Angeles when Chris Paul and the Hornets take on Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. After starting the season with 11 wins in their first 12 games, the Hornets have come back down to earth. They are 10-14 since that start, which puts them third in the Southwest Division and sixth overall in the Western Conference. The Lakers got off to a 13-2 start, but are just 12-9 since.

New Orleans had won three straight entering Wednesday, but suffered a rough defeat against Golden State blowing a 13-point lead and getting outscored 38-21 in the fourth quarter. The Hornets haven’t been as successful ATS as they have been overall, as they are 18-16-2 ATS on the season. After suffering through a 3-12-2 stretch, they have performed better recently, winning seven of their last 11 games ATS and three of their last four road games ATS. Chris Paul has picked up the pace over his past seven games, averaging 19.4 PPG on 50.0 percent shooting. For his career, Paul has averaged 21.3 PPG and 11.9 APG against the Lakers.

The Lakers also started strong ATS going 9-5, but have been woeful since, going 7-15 ATS, which includes losing seven of their past nine at home. After scoring in double-figures in six of his first 10 games, Ron Artest has scored in double-figures just seven times in his past 26 games, averaging just 6.2 PPG over that span while shooting 38.2 percent from the field.

These two teams previously played on December 29 in New Orleans. The Lakers entered that game on a three-game losing streak, but easily won the game 113-98. Since then the Lakers have won four of five. Los Angeles has won three straight against the Hornets at home, winning the last two by a combined 27 points. I’m taking the Lakers minus the points. The FoxSheets also like Los Angeles as the pick here:

NEW ORLEANS is 7-22 ATS (24.1%, -17.2 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.2, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Heat look for 20th win in 21 games on Friday


MIAMI HEAT (28-9)

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (13-20)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -7, Total: 183

Milwaukee hopes to continue its defensive efforts and put a halt to an impressive Miami run as it plays host to the Heat on Friday. Miami has gone an astounding 19-1 in its past 20 games, the most recent being a hard-fought win over these same Bucks on Tuesday.

Milwaukee is looking to duplicate their first-half efforts they had against the Heat for an entire game this time around. On Tuesday, the Bucks led 51-47 at halftime, but the Heat held Milwaukee to just 38 second-half points en route to a 101-89 win. That was one of the few positive signs for the Bucks over the past five games. The Bucks have gone 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over this stretch, averaging a lowly 86.4 PPG on 39.4% shooting. However, a sign of light for them can be found in their surroundings for this game as the Bucks have outscored (91.1 to 90.3) and outrebounded (53.4 to 46.5) their opponents on average at the Bradley Center.

The Bucks reliance on defensive efforts to win games is largely attributed to the loss of their floor general, Brandon Jennings. When they've hit 45.0% or better from the field, they're 9-2. Anytime they shoot less than 45%, they're 4-18. In their loss to Orlando on Wednesday, Corey Maggette had a solid contribution off the bench with 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting, well above his 10.8 PPG and 40.4% FG on the season. John Salmons had one of his lowest outputs in the past five games (13 points), but is still averaging 17.6 PPG over that stretch. Andrew Bogut’s 9.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG and 2.8 BPG over the past five are all below his season average. The Bucks will have to hope for Bogut to be a force to keep the game close against the Heat.

And as for Miami, it’s been difficult to find negatives over the past 20 games. Their only loss was 98-96 against Dallas on Dec. 20. The Heat have been dominant over their past five games, averaging 108.4 PPG on 49.7% shooting. They’ve been equally impressive on the opposite end as they boast the league’s best field-goal percentage defense. Miami is No. 1 in the league at defending both beyond the three-point line (31.9%) and overall (42.3%). This is especially true against Milwaukee, where Miami has limited the Bucks to 37.1% shooting and an average of 83.5 points in their two victories over Milwaukee this season.

The big three of the Heat continue to get the job done. Miami is 19-2 when Dwyane Wade scores at least 25 points. Wade has averaged an NBA-best 29.2 PPG on the road since Dec. 6. LeBron James is right behind him at 28.5 PPG during that stretch. Chris Bosh remains the consistent third threat averaging 17.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG over the past five games.

Expect Miami to come out aggressively and pull away in convincing fashion. The Heat are 3-1 SU and ATS in Milwaukee over the past three seasons and this FoxSheets trend also likes Miami to continue its win streak.

Play Against - Home underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. (108-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +45.3 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the final score to finish Over the total:

Play Over - Any team (MIAMI) - after 7 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record. (99-54 since 1996.) (64.7%, +39.6 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Orlando guns for 7th straight win hosting Houston


HOUSTON ROCKETS (16-19)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (23-12)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -10, Total: 206

Orlando is one of the hottest teams in the league right now (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its past six games) and hopes to keep that momentum going as it plays host to Houston on Friday. The Magic were barely unable to cover the 11.5-point spread on Wednesday in beating Milwaukee by 10, otherwise they would have a perfect ATS run over the past seven games. The Rockets, on the other hand, are struggling to right the ship after their third loss in a row against Portland on Wednesday.

Houston went from a five-game winning streak recently to only one win in its past five games (0-4-2 ATS in past six games). The Rockets have still been able to score, averaging 104.8 PPG on 44.3% FG over the five games. But their defensive effort has been their downfall, giving up 109.2 PPG on 47.2% FG to their opponents over this same stretch. The road has also been unkind to the Rockets. They’re 6-13 SU and 9-9 ATS on the road so far this season.

Kevin Martin (23.2 PPG, 43% 3-pt FG) has been doing his part to keep the offensive numbers going. He exploded for a season-high 45 points against Portland on Wednesday, including six three-pointers. Unfortunately though, Luis Scola (19.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and Kyle Lowry (10.8 PPG, 6.8 APG) have seen a dip across the board in their averages over the past five games. Lowry will have to pick up his play with the news of Aaron Brooks being a game-time decision due to his injured ankle. Even if Brooks plays, expect his minutes to be limited making him unable to reach his 12.1 PPG and 4.8 APG season averages.

Orlando continues to dominate almost every aspect of the games it has played recently. The Magic have averaged 106.6 PPG on 48.4% shooting over the past five games. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Magic have allowed their opponents to score only 92.6 PPG on 42.3% shooting over this same stretch. The Magic are getting balanced scoring across the board, with six players scoring in double figures in each of the past five games. Dwight Howard has led the way with a consistent 21.0 PPG, 13.4 RPG and 2.0 BPG during this time, all numbers on par with his season average. Hedo Turkoglu has dramatically stepped up his game, averaging 13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 5.4 APG over the past five, well above his season averages.

The head-to-head history between these two is close to dead even, with Houston being 13-12 ATS against Orlando, and the Magic being 14-13 SU against the Rockets since 1996. The same goes for the match-up being in Orlando, with Houston going 7-6 ATS and Orlando going 7-7 SU since 1996.

However, as mentioned earlier, the Magic are getting it done on the defensive end. Pair Orlando’s defensive efforts with Houston’s recent lack of ability to stop teams, and it is tough to think Houston will be able to stop their losing streak on Friday. Expect the Magic to cover the spread in their victory over the Rockets. This FoxSheets trend also likes Orlando to extend its win streak.

Play On - Home favorites (ORLANDO) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). (54-19 since 1996.) (74%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the final score to finish Over the total due to Houston’s sub-par defense:

Play Over - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ORLANDO) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. (35-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Shootout expected in Knicks-Suns game Friday


NEW YORK KNICKS (20-14)

at PHOENIX SUNS (14-19)


Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Phoenix -2, Total: 219

Two of the top three scoring teams in the NBA meet in Phoenix Friday night when the Knicks travel to take on the Suns. New York leads the league with 107.8 PPG while Phoenix ranks third in the NBA with 106.1 PPG.

After winning at least 54 games in five of their last six seasons, the Suns are off to their worst start since 2003-04 when current Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni took over for Frank Johnson after 21 games. After averaging 58 wins in his four full seasons as coach, D’Antoni left to take over the Knicks. Thanks to another departure from the Suns to the Knicks, Amar’e Stoudemire this past offseason, the Suns find themselves in the position of missing the postseason for just fourth time since the 1988-89 season.

While the Suns are 14-19 straight up, they have also struggled ATS going 13-19-1 on the season. They are 6-10 at home ATS but have won their last two games. Looking at the numbers, it’s easy to see why the Suns have struggled so much. Only the Timberwolves allow more point than the Suns (108.2 PPG), and only the Raptors allow opponents to shoot higher than the Suns (48.5% FG). They also rank last in the NBA in rebound differential as they are outrebounded by an average of 5.6 RPG every game. The Suns are still waiting to see results from a trade that saw them swap their leading scorer Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat. They have lost six of their eight games since that trade.

The Knicks are off to their best start since 2000-01 winning 20 of their 34 games so far this season. The Knicks have been the second-best ATS team (behind only Philadelphia) in the NBA going 22-11-1 on the year, which includes an impressive 13-4 ATS (10-7 SU) on the road. However, after winning nine straight ATS on the road, the Knicks have lost two of their last three. The biggest reason for the Knicks turnaround this season has been the presence of Stoudemire, who leads a New York team that ranks first in the NBA in PPG (107.8) and second in the NBA in FT percentage (79.7). Stoudemire himself is averaging career-highs in PPG (26.4) and minutes per game (37.6). Wilson Chandler has also stepped up his game of late, averaging 21.2 PPG on 57% shooting from the field and 12-for-24 from behind the arc in his past six games.

Recent history has not been kind to the Knicks in the valley of the sun. The Knicks have lost seven straight at Phoenix by an average of 15.3 PPG. However, all of those seven losses occurred when Stoudemire was a member of the Suns. With the big man wearing a New York jersey this time, I like the Knicks plus the points. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick New York on Friday:

Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more. (56-27 since 1996.) (67.5%, +26.3 units. Rating = 2*).

NEW YORK is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. The average score was NEW YORK 110.2, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under with the massive total.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. (42-15 since 1996.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, January 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kentucky - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -4.5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 52.5 500


Pittsburgh favored by 3.5 over Kentucky


BBVA COMPASS BOWL
KENTUCKY WILDCATS (6-6)
vs. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (7-5)

Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 8, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 52

Saturday’s BBVA Compass Bowl (formerly the Papajohns.com Bowl) will mark the Pittsburgh head-coaching debut of Phil Bennett, who is the school’s third head coach in two months. Bennett, who is the Panthers defensive coordinator, takes over for Dave Wannstedt who was forced to resign just days after the Panthers accepted the invitation to play Kentucky. Pittsburgh also hired former Miami-Ohio head coach Michael Haywood, but fired him two weeks later after he was charged with felony domestic battery in the presence of a minor.

Part of the reason Wannstedt was forced out was because the Panthers didn’t beat anybody good this year. RB Dion Lewis is partly to blame, having not come close to last year’s 1,799 rushing yards, but he did gain 261 yards with 4 TD in Pitt’s last game against Cincinnati. Sophomore QB Tino Sunseri ranked second in the Big East in passing efficiency (15 TD, 8 INT), but the Panthers only rank 72nd in offense (368 YPG). They are much more accomplished on the defensive side of the ball, ranking ninth in the nation in total defense (304 YPG).

Kentucky also had some legal issues to a key team member since the team last played. Starting QB Mike Hartline was arrested on Dec. 10 for second-degree disorderly conduct and public intoxication and was suspended by head coach Joker Phillips. Hartline will be replaced by sophomore Morgan Newton who has only attempted seven passes this year. However, Newton did start the final eight games of the 2009 season when Hartline was injured. He completed 75-of-135 passes (56%) for 706 yards, 6 TD and 3 INT. Although Kentucky wasn’t a world beater this year either, the ‘Cats had a signature win against South Carolina, and lost by only three to Auburn. Kentucky’s Randall Cobb is one of the more exciting players to watch, as he ranks second in the nation in all-purpose yards (183 YPG).

This will be Pitt’s third consecutive postseason berth and 27th all-time bowl game appearance (11-15 record). Last year, the Panthers beat North Carolina 19-17 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Kentucky will be making a fifth straight bowl appearance and the 15th in its school history. The Wildcats have won three of their past four bowls to run their bowl record to 8-6 all-time. This will be the first-ever meeting on the gridiron between Pittsburgh and Kentucky. The Panthers have not faced an SEC school since beating John Majors’ Tennessee team 13-3 in 1983.

The Big East has won all four games in this bowl series by an average of 11.5 PPG and the FoxSheets give a slight edge to Pittsburgh to keep this trend going.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. (48-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 1*).

The Under has also been the winning play in each of the four BBVA Compass Bowl series games featuring a Big East School. The FoxSheets give another reason to bet the Under.

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division I-A conferences. (25-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 3*).

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum Phillips!

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston College - 9:00 PM ET Boston College +7.5 500
Nevada - Under 55 500


Nevada-BC riding long win streaks


FIGHT HUNGER BOWL
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (7-5)
vs. NEVADA WOLF PACK (12-1)

AT&T Park – San Francisco, CA
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 9, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Nevada -7.5, Total: 54.5

Sunday’s Fight Hunger Bowl features a great matchup between Nevada’s pistol offense and Boston College’s run-stuffing defense. The dynamic senior duo of QB Colin Kaepernick (20 rush TD) and RB Vai Taua (19 rush TD) lead the Wolf Pack’s third-ranked yardage offense (536 YPG) and seventh-highest-scoring offense (42.6 PPG) in the nation. Boston College leads the country in rushing defense (80 YPG) and has limited opponents to just 11.8 PPG and 75 rushing YPG while forcing 12 turnovers during its current five-game winning streak.

If Nevada, winners of six straight games since its lone loss of the season (27-21 to Hawaii), can’t move the football on the ground, Kaepernick is more than capable through the air with 20 passing touchdowns on the year. But the Wolf Pack won’t abandon the run too quickly, considering they rank third in the nation with 306 rushing YPG. Kaepernick’s 59 career rushing touchdowns are tied with Eric Crouch for the all-time FBS record among quarterbacks and he is only the third QB to rush for 4,000 career yards, joining Pat White of West Virginia and Brad Smith of Missouri. Taua has 26 career 100-yard rushing games and his 22 total TD this year are tied with Oregon’s LaMichael James for tops in the nation. Taua’s 1,534 rushing yards this season rank sixth among all FBS players.

On defense, Nevada has stopped the run pretty effectively (125 YPG, 23rd in nation), but its pass defense is among the worst in the land (108th), allowing 253 passing YPG.

The Eagles are led by RB Montel Harris, who missed the team’s last game against Syracuse with a knee injury. Harris, the ACC’s leading rusher at 113 YPG, says he’s 100 percent healthy. He has six straight 100-yard games with eight total touchdowns in this span. If Harris isn’t fully healed like he says, freshman Andre Williams proved to be a capable second option after running for 185 yards on a school-record 42 carries against the Orange. BC’s weak quarterback play is the biggest reason the school ranks 109th in scoring (18.9 PPG) and 106th in total yards (309 YPG). Freshman QB Chase Rettig has only surpassed 200 yards once in seven starts, and has more interceptions (seven) than touchdown passes (six).

BC’s defense is led by two stellar linebackers -- Mark Herzlich and Luke Kuechly. Herzlich was the 2008 ACC Defensive Player of the Year then missed the 2009 season while undergoing chemotherapy and radiation treatments from Ewing’s sarcoma. Herzlich won his battle with cancer and finished 2010 with 60 tackles (47 solo) and four interceptions. Kuechly led the nation in tackles (14.3 per game) with at least eight solo stops in each of his past six games. He has 102 solo tackles, 69 assists, 10.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and two interceptions this year.

Boston College is going to a bowl game for the 12th year in a row. BC is 13-8 all-time in bowls, including an 8-2 record since 2000. The Eagles are 2-1 all-time against WAC teams, including a win at Boise State in the 2005 MPC Computers Bowl, marking the last time Boise State lost on its blue turf. Nevada, who beat Boise State this season, is 3-7 in its 10-year bowl history with four straight bowl losses. The Wolf Pack were crushed by SMU 45-10 in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, but Taua did not play due to academic issues. Sunday’s game will be the first meeting between these schools.

The underdog’s record is 5-3 ATS in the eight-game history of this series formerly called the Emerald Bowl. The FoxSheets give a slight edge to underdog Boston College to cover the spread with its great defense.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. (50-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.4%, +26.9 units. Rating = 2*).

In terms of totals, the Under has been the result of the last three games in this bowl series, after Over had won four straight times. The FoxSheets give another reason to bet the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (NEVADA) - top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season, in major bowl games (played in January). (54-22 since 1992.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*).

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BCS Betting Preview: Auburn 3-point chalk vs Oregon


There shouldn’t be any complaints about this year’s BCS Championship Game in Glendale Ariz., not with Oregon and Auburn squaring off Monday night at 5:30 PT on ESPN.

It’s hard to argue that the 12-0 Ducks and 13-0 Tigers aren’t the two best teams in the country.

What’s more debatable is the pointspread. The Tigers are minus 2 ½ with the ‘over/under’ a whopping 74 points.

The MGM Grand hotel in Las Vegas posted an opening number of Oregon minus 2 ½ shortly after Auburn crushed South Carolina, 56-17, as four-point favorites in the SEC title game at Georgia Dome back on Dec. 4. The Las Vegas Hilton oddsmakers opened the Ducks even higher following that game at minus three.

However, less than 24 hours later, the betting line had completely shifted. Now the Tigers were favored by a field goal. Auburn stayed three-point favorites until early this week when the number has come down to 2 ½.

Oregon is bidding to become the second Pac-10 school to finish No. 1 in the polls, USC was the first.

The Ducks may very well achieve that distinction, but there are plenty of people and bettors who won’t take them not wanting to go against an SEC school. The SEC, after all, has captured and covered the past four national titles. They sent 10 teams to bowl games this season. The Pac-10 had four bowl teams.

Auburn just may be a team of destiny having trailing in eight of their games, four by double-digits. The Tigers trailed Alabama 24-0 on the road before pulling out a 28-27 win as 4 ½-point ‘dogs, the only time the Tigers have received points all season.

Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton helped the Tigers pull out every game. Newton earned the trophy by finishing as the nation’s top-rated passer with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. Oh, yes, he also ran for an additional 1,409 yards and 20 touchdowns.

The Tigers have covered 16 of the past 21 times they’ve been ‘chalk.’

Oregon’s defense ranked among the top 20 in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. Auburn, though, went up against five teams that were ranked 18th or higher, while the Ducks faced only one. That one was Stanford, which lost 52-31 to Oregon.

This was Stanford’s only defeat. The Cardinal are getting tremendous respect after destroying Virginia Tech, 40-12, in the Orange Bowl. Some believe now that Stanford could be the second-best team in the country.

The Ducks rate sixth in pass efficiency defense, while Auburn is 75th. Oregon also has the sixth-best red-zone defense in the nation allowing only 17 of 50 opponents’ drives inside the 20-yard line to result in touchdowns.

Auburn ranks 97th in the category yielding 25 of 40 opponent’s red-zone attempts to result in touchdowns.

Newton is Auburn’s big offensive star. Oregon has two of them – running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas.

James helped the Ducks lead the nation in points per game at 49.3 finishing as he averaged 152.9 yards on the ground per game and scored 21 touchdowns.

Thomas isn’t Newton, but he did post excellent numbers throwing for 2,518 yards and 28 touchdowns to go with 563 rushing yards and five scores on the ground.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 14 of Oregon’s last 19 games. The ‘over’ has cashed in 16 of Auburn’s 23 games since Gene Chizik took over.

Auburn finished in the bottom half of the SEC in points and yards allowed surrendering an average of 28 points per game during its last eight matchups.

Not surprisingly, good weather is forecast for the game at University of Phoenix Stadium with temperatures in the 50s, clear skies and little wind.

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BCS Championship Game loaded with prop bets


Monday’s BCS Championship game between the Auburn Tigers and Oregon Ducks has an array of proposition wagers available, letting bettors have a menu of chances outside of the standard pointspread and ‘total.’ Professional and recreational gamblers alike can sometimes find value in props, making a contest more exciting and profitable.

Sports books expect a high-scoring affair, which is apparent in the matchup’s sizable ‘total’ of 74 being set. Related props exist, focusing on how points will be notched by each squad.

The first score of the game being a touchdown is a minus 400 choice among propositions, while a field goal or safety stands at a price of plus 300. Oregon is presently ranked as the nation’s top squad for yards (542.1 YPG) and scoring (49.3 PPG), while Auburn closely follows the Ducks (498.8 YPG, 42.7 PPG).

Both foes had their share of lighting up the scoreboard this year, but it can be best to take a closer look at when the most explosiveness occurred. Auburn notched a stellar 55.3 PPG in three of its non-conference home matchups against Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga (Div. II), clearly driving its scoring stats northward. Oregon began its season with 72-0 and 69-0 home spankings in two of its first three games against New Mexico and Portland State, respectively, which surely can be considered outliers.

A prop for the longest touchdown scored presently has a ‘total’ of 64 ½ yards, with minus 115 pricing for the ‘over’ or ‘under.’

The Ducks saw some sizable scoring plays both for and against their squad just two games ago, when hosting the Arizona Wildcats in a Nov. 26 battle. Oregon’s defense gave up an 85-yard pass to Arizona’s Juron Criner in the first quarter, while Ducks wide receiver Josh Huff dashed the same distance for a touchdown during the second half.

Auburn’s matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide as part of the same week’s college football slate similarly saw the Tigers log a large scoring strike, while also allowing one. Alabama’s Greg McElroy fired an early 68-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones, while Tigers quarterback Cam Newton later tossed a 70-yard score to Terrell Zachery.

Newton is an underdog against Ducks quarterback Darron Thomas in a prop focusing on which signal caller will have the most passing yards. Thomas is favored by 10 ½ yards, which could be an overlay given Newton’s ability to move the ball as a multi-dimensional rusher.

Oddsmakers have posted a prop for Newton’s rushing yards, setting his ‘total’ at 95 ½. The 2010 Heisman Trophy winner has logged 87.6 YPG on the ground in Auburn’s last three contests.

Newton and Thomas have also been listed in ‘total’ props for the number of pass completions each will notch, with the numbers posted at 15 ½ and 16 ½, respectively. The last five games for each quarterback have seen Newton connect for 15 CPG, while Thomas has averaged 17.2 CPG.