The Bum's BCS Best Bets Bowl GOY, News, Notes !

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Friday, December 31Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET Clemson -5.5 500
Clemson - Under 40.5 500

Notre Dame - 2:00 PM ET Notre Dame +2.5 500
Miami - Over 47 500

Central Florida - 3:30 PM ET Central Florida +6.5 500
Georgia - Under 53.5 500

Florida State - 7:30 PM ET South Carolina -3 500
South Carolina - Over 54.5 500

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Miami, Notre Dame renew NCAA betting rivalry


Notre Dame and Miami are two proud universities trying to become national title contenders once again, but meet is this Sun Bowl matchup on El Paso’s smaller stage. The Fighting Irish and Hurricanes were engaged in a high-profile series back in the 1980s when both won national championships, but they haven’t met on the gridiron since 1990.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5 straight up, 5-5-2 against the spread) is a pedestrian 23-26 since the beginning of the 2007 campaign, but things appear to be looking up under first-year head coach Brian Kelly. The Fighting Irish seem to have turned things around after beginning the season 1-3 SU and ATS.

Miami Hurricanes (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) will be playing under interim head coach Jeff Stoutland after Randy Shannon was fired after another disappointing season. The Hurricanes were ranked 13th in the preseason, but struggled throughout the year that saw the team drop their last two home games SU and ATS. Stoutland, who had triple-bypass surgery in the offseason, will serve as head coach for this game before Temple’s Al Golden takes over the program.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds currently list Miami as a three-point ‘chalk’ over Notre Dame, with the total set at 47. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Friday’s Sun Bowl from El Paso, Texas beginning at 11 a.m. PT.

Notre Dame closed out the regular season with a three-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Fighting Irish upended rival Southern Cal Nov. 27 as a 4 ½-point road underdog, 20-16, while the combined 36 points never seriously threatened the 51-point closing total. The ‘under’ cashed the last four games for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame earned its first victory over the Trojans since the 2001 campaign, finishing the game with advantages in first downs (15-12) and rushing yards (147-80). The Fighting Irish prevailed despite losing the turnover battle, 4-1.

Freshman Tommy Rees was 20-of-32 passing for 149 yards with two touchdowns, while running back Cierre Wood had 15 carries for 89 yards. Junior wide receiver Michael Floyd enjoyed a solid game by catching 11 passes for 86 yards with a score.

While Notre Dame finished the regular season on a winning streak, Miami struggled down the stretch. The Hurricanes fell to South Florida Nov. 27 in overtime as a 13-point home favorite, 23-20, while the combined 43 points failed to eclipse the 46 ½-point closing total. The ‘under’ is now 6-0-1 their last seven games.

Miami finished the contest with slight advantages in rushing yards (165-135) and passing yards (188-159), but the team was unable to overcome a 3-1 turnover deficit. The last turnover occurred late in regulation, preventing the Hurricanes from trying the potential game-winning field goal.

Quarterback Jacory Harris was 12-of-18 passing for 110 yards with an interception, connecting with wideout Leonard Hankerson nine times for 127 yards. Running back Storm Johnson had five carries for 75 yards with a touchdown in the loss, while senior Damien Berry had 15 carries for 55 yards.

Miami quarterback Jacory Harris (concussion), wide receiver Leonard Hankerson (flu) and running back Mike James (personal) are ‘probable’ versus the Fighting Irish, while offensive tackle Orlando Franklin (flu), defensive back Lee Chambers (lower body), linebacker Tyrone Cornileus (illness) and defensive back Cory Nelms (leg) are ‘questionable.’

Notre Dame nose guard Ian Williams (knee injury) is ‘probable’ against the Hurricanes, while safety Dan McCarthy (shoulder) and nose tackle Tyler Stockton (shoulder) are expected to miss this matchup.

Friday’s forecast for El Paso, Texas calls for mostly sunny skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 49 degrees and a low of 29.

Notre Dame finished strong down the stretch with wins over Utah and Southern Cal, while Miami has dropped consecutive home contests. The Fighting Irish appear to be hitting their stride under first-year head coach Brian Kelly, while the Hurricanes will be playing for an interim coach. Notre Dame 27 – Miami 21

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UCF looks for first-ever bowl win vs. Georgia


LIBERTY BOWL
UCF GOLDEN KNIGHTS (10-3)
vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-6)

Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -6.5, Total: 53.5

Central Florida is looking for its first-ever bowl victory when it faces a Georgia on New Year’s Eve in Memphis. The Bulldogs are looking to avoid their first losing season in 14 years.

Georgia’s offense has been rolling ever since star wideout A.J. Green returned from his season-opening, four-game suspension. The Dawgs are averaging 42.1 PPG with Green (771 rec. yds, 9 TD in 8 games) in the lineup. Central Florida’s offense has also been very good this year, scoring 33.8 PPG while allowing just 18.0 PPG.

Each team is led by a talented freshman quarterback ranked in the top-10 in the nation in passing efficiency. Jeffrey Godfrey has 11 TD and just 2 INT in his past six games for UCF. Georgia’s Aaron Murray has a current four-game streak of throwing three or more touchdowns, to give him 24 TD and just 6 INT for the season. Both quarterbacks will be facing strong defenses. The Golden Knights defense ranks 18th in the nation in total yardage (318 YPG) while Georgia clocks in at 30th (336 YPG).

Central Florida is 0-3 all-time in bowls during its brief FBS history. Georgia is playing in its 46th bowl (14th straight), posting an impressive 26-16-3 record (61%). The Bulldogs have won 11 of their past 13 bowls, including four in a row. UCF head coach George O’Leary is 3-5 against Georgia when he coached at Georgia Tech.

The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 Liberty Bowl games. The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends siding with underdog UCF to win:

UCF is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UCF 26.8, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 4*).

UCF is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UCF 29.7, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 3*).

The Under has occurred eight times in the past 11 games in the Sun Bowl series, and this FoxSheets trend also likes the Under.

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCF) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in non-conference games. (68-30 since 1992.) (69.4%, +35 units. Rating = 3*).

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Ponder expected to start vs. South Carolina


CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (9-4)
vs. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (9-4)

Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -3, Total: 54.5

Two high-profile conference championship game losing teams meet in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Although the teams allowed a combined 100 points in their championship losses, each team still has a formidable defense. South Carolina ranks in the top 10 in the nation in rushing defense (104 YPG) and sacks (3.0 per game) and FSU ranks second in the nation in sacks (3.5 per game) and 17th in tackles for loss (7.0 per game).

Seminoles QB Christian Ponder (elbow) did not play in the ACC Championship Game, but is probable to start in this bowl game. If Ponder (20 TD, 8 INT) gets injured again, E.J. Manuel, who threw for 288 yards, one touchdown and one INT in the loss to Virginia Tech, will replace Ponder. FSU’s rushing attack is also in need of a jump start. After four straight games of gaining more than 200 rushing yards, the Seminoles haven’t reached that mark in seven straight contests, rushing for just 120 YPG over that stretch.

South Carolina’s rushing game is much better shape than FSU’s ground game. Gamecocks star freshman RB Marcus Lattimore (99.8 rushing YPG, 2nd in SEC) had 120 total yards in the loss to Auburn to give him 1,562 total yards for the season. The South Carolina passing attack has been inconsistent, with three 300-yard games and five sub-200-yard contests this season. QB Stephen Garcia has thrown for 2,816 yards with 20 TD and 11 INT this year. He has at least two touchdown passes in eight games this year, including three straight contests.

Florida State is making its nation-leading 29th straight bowl appearance and 39th overall (22-14-2 record). South Carolina is just 4-11 in its bowl history, but all four wins have come since 1994.

These schools will renew a long-time rivalry for the first time since 1991 with FSU holding a 15-3 series lead over the Gamecocks. Underdogs are 12-4-2 ATS in the last 18 installments of this Chick-fil-A/Peach Bowl series. The FoxSheets show another trend picking underdog Florida State to win:

SOUTH CAROLINA is 6-20 ATS (23.1%, -16.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. The average score was SOUTH CAROLINA 20.3, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 2*).

The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 Chick-fil-A/Peach Bowl games. The losing team has a dismal 11.6 PPG average over these 11 contests. These two FoxSheets trends also side with the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (S CAROLINA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division I-A conferences. (52-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.4%, +33.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLORIDA ST, SOUTH CAROLINA) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division I-A conferences. (74-34 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.5%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

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Miami favored by 2.5 over Notre Dame


SUN BOWL
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-5)
vs. MIAMI-FL HURRICANES (7-5)

Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 31, 2:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -2.5, Total: 47

Two of the most successful programs in college football history meet in El Paso, TX on New Year’s Eve for the Sun Bowl. Both these schools had loftier goals than a mediocre December bowl this season, but injuries to both starting QBs have made winning tough. Notre Dame has played the most challenging schedule in the country (11 of its 12 opponents finishing .500 or better) without QB Dayne Crist (leg) for the latter part of the year. Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris has also missed time recently due to a concussion, but he is expected to start versus Notre Dame.

With the firing of Miami head coach Randy Shannon, interim coach Jeff Stoutland takes control of the team. He will be tasked with stopping a red-hot Notre Dame squad that has won three straight games by a combined score of 75 to 22, despite mediocre play from freshman QB Tommy Rees (164 pass YPG, 6 TD, 4 INT during win streak). Rees will continue to look for his No. 1 receiver Michael Floyd who has 422 receiving yards and 7 TD in his past five games. Moving the football through the air won’t be easy against a Hurricanes pass defense ranked second in the nation (146 YPG). Notre Dame has not run the ball effectively this year, failing to surpass 155 yards in any game. The Irish rank 96th in the country with only 121 rushing YPG. The defense has been stellar in the past three games though, holding its opponents to 233 total YPG and 22 total points.

Harris (14 TD, 12 TD this year) may not have his favorite target, WR Leonard Hankerson, at full speed because he’s battling the flu. Hankerson led the ACC with 90.4 receiving yards per game and he racked up 12 touchdowns, including nine in eight conference games. Miami’s ground game has been efficient this season, ranking 26th in the nation with 190 rushing YPG, led by Damien Berry (79 rush YPG) and Lamar Miller (63 rush YPG). Miami’s defense has allowed 54 points over the past two games, but it still ranks 16th in the nation in yardage (317 YPG) and 21st in scoring (19.7 PPG).

Both schools have had plenty of bowl history. Notre Dame will be making its 30th bowl appearance (14-15 record) overall and its eighth in the state of Texas, with seven previous Cotton Bowl appearances (5-2). Miami will be making its 36th bowl appearance (19-16 record) and its third in the state of Texas.

The Sun Bowl has shown two worthy trends. Underdogs are 12-2-1 ATS (8-7 SU) dating back to 1994, including 10.5-point underdog Stanford only losing 31-27 to Oklahoma last season.

The schools also have a history of playing each other, with Notre Dame holding a 15-7-1 series lead. The schools have not faced each other since 1990. Despite Notre Dame’s hot streak, the FoxSheets advise bettors to stay away from Notre Dame when it is playing well. This trend makes Miami the choice to win and cover:

NOTRE DAME is 21-40 ATS (34.4%, -23.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The average score was NOTRE DAME 27.9, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 1*).

The Over has hit seven times in the last nine games in the Sun Bowl series, and this FoxSheets trend also likes the Over.

Play Over - Any team against the total (NOTRE DAME) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games. (122-85 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.9%, +28.5 units. Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

New Year's Day Tips
December 31, 2010

Three SEC teams will take on Big Ten schools during the afternoon on New Year’s Day. Let’s get your ready for all three of those contests and your wagering options for each.

**Florida vs. Penn State**

--This is a rematch of the 1998 Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day when Florida rode the legs of Fred Taylor to a 21-6 win over Penn State as a 14-point favorite in Orlando. This time around, most betting shops are listing the Gators as seven-point favorites with a total of 48. Gamblers can take PSU to win outright for an attractive plus-250 payout (risk $100 to win $250).

--Florida saw its six-game winning streak against arch-rival FSU ended in embarrassing fashion in its regular-season finale at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The Seminoles dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 31-7 shellacking as 2 ½-point home favorites.

--Penn State (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) won four of its last six games both SU and ATS, but it lost its regular-season finale to Michigan St. by a 28-22 count as a 1 ½-point home underdog.

--Joe Paterno’s team is led by senior running back Evan Royster, who rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries against the Spartans. For the season, Royster rushed for 916 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Sophomore QB Matt McGloin took over the starting job in late October and played well, posting a 13/4 TD-INT ratio for the season.

--Urban Meyer’s team has been a single-digit favorite three times this season, losing outright in each instance. Meanwhile, PSU has posted an abysmal 1-4 record both SU and ATS when listed as an underdog.

--UF will be without four starters due to injuries, including All-SEC cornerback Janoris Jenkins.

--Florida’s offense has been anemic all year long. Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey, UF’s most explosive offensive weapons, both missed big chunks of the season due to injury and suspension. John Brantley played hurt at times, was asked to run too much and was hurt by poor route running by his wideouts. Brantley’s stats indicated those struggles with a mediocre 9/9 TD-INT ratio and 2,020 passing yards. Over the last month of the season, Brantley would often get yanked in and out of the lineup in favor of Jordan Reed or Trey Burton lining up at QB in the shotgun in running situations.

--The word on the street Friday afternoon was that new UF head coach Will Muschamp is poised to hire Kansas City offensive coordinator Charlie Weis as the Gators’ new offensive coordinator for the 2011 campaign. If this indeed becomes a fact, it’ll be an extraordinary first hire for Muschamp to bring in Weis on several levels. For starters, the young Muschamp, who will be head coach for the first time, will have Weis, the former head coach at Notre Dame, to lean on for counsel. Most importantly, though, Weis is an offensive mastermind who called the plays for three Super Bowl winners during his time in New England. This year he’s helped the Chiefs get to the playoffs for the first time in several seasons.

--The Gators are 4-1 both SU and ATS in bowl games during Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. Meanwhile, PSU is going bowling for a sixth consecutive year. The Lions are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five postseason games, beating a pair of SEC schools in that stretch (19-17 over LSU last year and 20-10 over Tennessee in the ’06 Outback Bowl.

--The ‘over’ finished the regular season on a 6-1 run in PSU games. On the flip side, the ‘under’ cashed in each of UF’s last three outings.

--ABC will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Alabama vs. Michigan State**

--Nick Saban will go up against his former school in this season’s Capital One Bowl in Orlando. Most books are listing Alabama (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 52. Gamblers can back the Spartans to win outright for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300).

--The last time the Tide didn’t have much to play for in the postseason, the results were disastrous. That would be at the Sugar Bowl two seasons ago when Utah raced out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and held on for a 31-17 victory as a nine-point underdog.

--Alabama is 2-1 both SU and ATS in bowl games on Saban’s watch, including last season’s 37-21 win over Texas to win the national title. But a repeat wasn’t in the works for this year’s Tide, which suffered its first loss by a 35-21 count at South Carolina. Four weeks later, ‘Bama lost a 24-21 decision at LSU as a 6 ½-point road favorite. Then in the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Crimson Tide jumped all over Auburn early and often, taking a 24-0 lead. But the Tigers would rally and eventually win 28-27 as 4 ½-point road underdogs.

--Michigan State (11-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) won its first eight games before getting trounced 37-6 at Iowa. Sine then, however, the Spartans have won three in a row, although they only covered once in that span. That ATS winner was in the regular-season finale, a 28-22 win at PSU.

--Michigan St. is led by junior QB Kirk Cousins, who connected on 67.5 percent of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 20/9 TD-INT ratio. However, Cousins will be without his favorite target against the Tide. WR B.J. Cunningham, who had 50 catches for 611 yards and nine TDs, will not player after suffering a broken foot at practice two weeks ago.

--Michigan St.’s ground game is led by sophomore Edwin Baker, who has 1,187 rushing yards and 13 TDs for the year. Baker averages 6.1 YPC.

--Alabama has two of the best RBs in the country in Mark Ingram, the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner, and Trent Richardson, sophomore who has blazing speed and is excellent at catching the ball from out of the backfield. With that said, Ingram’s numbers were down this year, as he rushed 816 yards and 11 TDs. In ’09, Ingram had 1,658 yards for 17 TDs. Richardson rushed for 658 yards five TDs, averaging 6.5 YPC.

--Alabama senior QB Greg McElroy finally suffered a few losses this year after producing a perfect resume dating back to his prep days. He sustained a concussion and an injured shoulder in the fourth quarter, but he’ll be ready for this game. McElroy has completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 2,767 yards with a 19/5 TD-INT ratio. Julio Jones, a junior WR, had 75 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven TDs.

--‘Bama has thrived as a double-digit favorite in seven instances this year, posting a 6-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Spartans have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS when listed as underdogs.

--The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for MSU, going 5-2 in its last seven games with a total.

--The ‘under’ went 7-4-1 overall for the Crimson Tide.

--Kick-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Mississippi State vs. Michigan**

--As of late Friday afternoon, most sports books were listing Mississippi State (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) as a four-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 60. This represents a line move after the number was in the 5-6 range for most of the last few weeks. Bettors can take the Wolverines to win outright for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).

--As I’ve been saying all year, I expect Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez to be fired in the 24-72 hours following this contest. Rodriguez at Michigan has been a piss-poor fit from the get-go. He brought baggage and drama from West Va. that carried into his first season, an unfathomable 3-9 campaign. In Years 2 and 3, Michigan got out to good starts (4-0 in ’08, 5-0 in ’09), only to fall apart with L’s galore when it got into the thick of Big Ten play.

--Michigan (7-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) lost five of its last seven games and failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight outings. In the regular-season finale, Ohio St. blasted Michigan 37-7 as a 16 ½-point home favorite.

--Michigan sophomore QB Denard Robinson might have won the Heisman if the award was issued in early October. For the season, Robinson rushed for 1,643 yards and 14 TDs. His passing wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t spectacular either, as evidenced by his 16/10 TD-INT ratio.

--MSU won seven of its last nine games, including an Egg Bowl victory over Ole Miss in Oxford. The Bulldogs beat the Rebels 31-23 as 2 ½-point road favorites. Chris Relf threw for 288 yards and three TDs and also rushed for 66 yards. LaDarius Perkins rushed for 98 yards and also had three catches for 140 yards and a pair of TDs.

--Dan Mullen, who inked a lucrative contract extension a few days ago, saw his team as a single-digit favorite four times. The Bulldogs were a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in those spots.

--Michigan has been an underdog four times, going 1-3 both SU and ATS. The Wolverines won 28-24 at Notre Dame in Week 2 as 3 ½-point puppies.

--The ‘under’ went 8-3 overall for MSU, cashing in five of its last six outings.

--ESPN2 will have television coverage at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Rose Bowl Preview
December 30, 2010


The BCS title game is no doubt the game that everyone wants to watch. However, gamblers and casual fans should be paying close attention in what’s going on in Pasadena this season as TCU (12-0 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) gets set to face the Badgers in the 97th Rose Bowl Game at 5:00 p.m. EST on ABC.

This is an intriguiging matchup for the betting public is putting it mildly. Most every betting shop has the Horned Frogs listed as three-point home favorites with a total of 58 ½. People looking to back Wisconsin (11-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) for the outright win can expect a plus-130 (risk $100 to win $130) payout.

If money moves coming into Sportsbook.com are to be a precursor of what to expect, then the public is loving the Badgers. How much are they in love with Bret Bielema’s team? Try the fact that not only is Wisky getting 79% of the cash to cover the number, but 93% of all the money being playing for a SU winner is coming down on them.

It’s awfully hard to argue with the gamblers in their thinking with Wisconsin. The Badgers have been purveyors of butt-whippings on a consistent basis this season. This is a team that put up 31 points on Ohio State when they were the No. 1 team in the land. Then Wisky closed out the year with offensive outputs of 83, 48 and 70 against Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern.

Bielema’s team doesn’t use much flash when try to find the end zone as they run the ball down your throat. The Badgers are 12th in the nation on rushing offense with 247.3 yards per game. That is an easy number to put up when you have an offensive line that averages 319.8 pounds per lineman. The end result is a three-headed running attack of James White (997 yards, 14 TD), John Clay (920 yards, 13 TD) and Montee Ball (847 yards, 17 TD) that can punish any defense.

As strong as Wisky’s running game is, you can’t forget about its passing game. Nick Toon (413 receiving yards, 3 TD) and Lance Kendricks (627 yards, 5 TD) are very capable receivers. Yet those wide outs wouldn’t be able to do anything without Scott Tolzien under center. Tolzien doesn’t get a lot of publicity, but is fourth among quarterbacks in the FBS in passing efficiency with a 169.8 rating.

Wisconsin has perfected the art of bending but not breaking when it comes to stopping the run this year. This largely rebuilt unit has given up 131.7 YPG on the ground. The Badgers allowed 191.8 passing YPG, which was 25th in the country. Although that number is good like their turnover margin +14, it is tilted by the blowout wins they had at the end of the year.

TCU comes into the game with a lot to prove. This is the second straight year the Horned Frogs come into the bowl season with a perfect mark. Last season, they got beaten by Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. But they’re coming into this battle playing its best football as they’ve covered the number in four of their last five games.

The Horned Frogs are just like Wisconsin in that they are a run-first kind of team, gaining 261.2 rushing YPG. Ed Wesley is still the main force behind their running game with 1,050 yards and 11 scores. But he is getting some help from Matthew Tucker by his picking up 669 yards on the ground with seven scores.

Even if you can stuff TCU’s running game, that means you have to take on Andy Dalton throwing the ball. The Horned Frogs’ QB saved his best work for his senior season, connecting on 66 percent of his passes for 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

Josh Byce has picked up the most receiving yards for the Horned Frogs (602), but Jeremy Kerley is the guy that finds the end zone with 10 touchdowns to his credit.

As good as the offense is for TCU, they hand their hat on arguably the most complete defense in the nation. Gary Patterson employs a 4-2-5 scheme that has given many teams headaches in preparing for this season. That setup has allowed them lead the nation in scoring (11.4 PPG), total defense (215.4 YPG) and 3rd down percentage (21.9).

The Horned Frogs should not be too cocky about being favored in this game. Rose Bowl favorites over the last seven year are just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in those contests.

TCU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS over its last four meetings with Big Ten foes, with the ‘over’ going 3-1. Meanwhile, Wisky has went 4-1 SU and 1-3-1 ATS since 2003 against teams out of the Mountain West.

The Badgers have been underdogs to play, evidenced by a 4-1 SU and ATS record in their last five games in this role. Plus, Wisconsin is 6-3 SU and ATS when posted as no bigger than a three-point pup over the last five years.

[StarDust Bum]

Handicapping the Fiesta Bowl
December 31, 2010


I don’t know what it is but Americans love a good underdog story. Whether it’s Rocky beating Apollo Creed, beating the Soviets in hockey or Average Joes beating Globo-Gym, we’re just suckers for a happy ending. That alone is worth bettors and football fans to keep an eye on Connecticut (8-4 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) as they take on the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl at 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.

This isn’t exactly the showdown the good people of Glendale were expecting when they were giving out BCS. At least they’re getting a known quantity in Oklahoma (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) showing up for the festivities.

The Sooners have been the biggest favorites on the board when it comes to BCS bowls, listed as 16 ½-point favorites with a total of 55. Bettors can expect a hefty payday when taking the Huskies to pull off the upset for a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500).

Only 32 percent of the cash on money line wagers has come in on Connecticut at Sportsbook.com. And there isn’t much to argue as to why people are going the way of the “chalk” on this contest.

The Huskies are awfully sluggish on offense. How bad are they? UConn is 96th in the nation in total offense, gaining 325.0 yards per game. And don’t buy into them throwing the ball in this game with the 112th-ranked passing attack, picking up just 145.1 YPG going through the air. Luckily for the Huskies they can run the ball.

Jordan Todman doesn’t get the most attention because he isn’t at a football powerhouse, but he is one the best rushers in football this year. The junior rusher is only behind LaMichael James as the nation’s top rusher with 143.1 YPG on the ground and 14 touchdowns. And Todman could be just the reason for the Huskies to pull off a huge upset.

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Dave Cokin even believes that Connecticut could be worth betting on Saturday night. “UConn-Oklahoma is a mismatch on paper. The Sooners have almost all the edges and there's no tangible reason this game should be close. But that's why the disrespected Huskies are live to get the money in this contest. Oklahoma could very well have a difficult time getting charged up for what seems like an easy win. Connecticut will take the field in Phoenix with a gigantic chip on its shoulder. Double digit dogs cover the spread more often than not in bowl games, so I would have to side with UConn to slip inside this monstrous number.”

As crazy as it might seem, there is some reason to believe in what Cokin is saying. Oklahoma is averaging just 151.8 YPG against the run this season. Although that has gotten better as the year progressed. The most notable recent performance was allowing the Cornhuskers to gain 145 yards on 43 carries in the Big XII title game. The Sooners don’t seem like they’ll be having issues against the pass this week with 212.2 passing YPG.

The Sooners are not as strong as you’d think they would be on the ground attack with talent like DeMarco Murray and Roy Finch in the backfield. They’re only picking up 141.3 rushing YPG, which ranks them 76th in the nation.

OU will be looking to win this game through the air on the arm of Landry Jones. It isn’t a far-fetched idea as Jones is averaging 329.9 passing YPG with 35 touchdowns and only 11 picks. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have receivers like Ryan Bowls (111.7 YPG) and Kenny Stills (54.8 YPG) to target. And the Huskies are giving up 206.4 YPG on the year via the skies, so this could be the biggest showdown on the night.

Connecticut has been one of the best teams to take when listed as an underdog. How good are they? Try wrapping your head around the fact that the Huskies are 9-10 SU, but 14-5 ATS as pups over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma has gone 28-7 SU and 20-15 ATS when posted as the “chalk” over the past two years. However, they are just 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS as a favorite against Big East foes since 2008. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in all three of those games.

Something else for gamblers to keep in mind for this game is the fact that the Sooners are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last six bowl games. Tighten that number up to when they’re favored and it is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.

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HAPPY NEW YEARS GANG !................

Saturday, January 1Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Texas Tech -8 500
Texas Tech - Over 61 500

Penn State - 1:00 PM ET Penn State +7 500
Florida - Under 48 500

Michigan State - 1:00 PM ET Michigan State +9.5 500
Alabama - Over 51.5 500

Michigan - 1:30 PM ET Michigan +3.5 500
Mississippi State - Under 59.5 500

Texas Christian - 5:00 PM ET Wisconsin +3 500
Wisconsin - Under 56.5 500

Connecticut - 8:30 PM ET Connecticut +15.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 54.5 500

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Paterno faces Meyer in his final game coaching


OUTBACK BOWL
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (7-5)
vs. FLORIDA GATORS (7-5)

Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida -7, Total: 48

Two traditional powerhouses square off to see who can win eight games and who will be saddled with a six pack of losses all summer. Penn State was 4-4 in Big Ten play, losing its season finale at home to Michigan State. Florida was trounced by a combined 67-21 in its past two games versus FBS teams, which had to have factored into Urban Meyer’s decision to resign as Florida’s head coach immediately following the Outback Bowl.

Gators QB John Brantley has had a brutal season trying to replace Tim Tebow. He has just 3 TD passes and 8 INT in his past eight games. Florida’s defense is the main reason the Gators even made a bowl, posting the ninth-best figure in yards allowed (303 YPG).

Penn State has been better with sophomore QB Matt McGloin (13 TD, 4 INT) than it was with freshman Rob Bolden (5 TD, 7 INT). Lions RB Evan Royster (916 rushing yards, 6 TD) is also struggling, with just 61 rushing YPG over his past three games. The Nittany Lions defense has allowed 21+ points in eight straight games. They rank 76th in the country in rushing defense (165 YPG), but are a solid 22nd in pass defense (188 YPG).

Florida will make its 38th bowl appearance, sporting a nearly-even 18-19 record. This also marks the 20th consecutive time the Gators will finish the season with a bowl. Florida is 4-1 in its past five bowl games, including two national championships. Penn State is making its sixth straight bowl appearance and 43rd in the school’s history. PSU is 27-13-2 all-time in bowls including 4-1 in its past five games. Joe Paterno’s 24 bowl wins are the most in FBS history.

Although the SEC has a slight 5-4 SU advantage in the past nine Outback Bowl games, the Big Ten is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games. The Underdog has covered six straight Outback Bowl games when the line was set at 4 points or more. The FoxSheets show a four-star trend picking underdog Penn State to win:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. (44-13 since 1992.) (77.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also side with the Under.

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PENN ST) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games. (26-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 2*).

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Michigan State is 10-point underdog to Alabama


CAPITAL ONE BOWL
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (11-1)
vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-3)

Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -10, Total: 52

Two teams with surprising seasons meet in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. Michigan State has been much better than anybody thought, losing just one game, while most pundits picked Alabama to return to the national title game. Michigan State has already set a school record with 11 wins and now the Spartans want to end their four-game bowl losing skid. In doing so, they would hand defending national champion Alabama its fourth loss of the season.

The Spartans’ offense, led by QB Kirk Cousins (20 TD, 9 INT), has been remarkably consistent all year. Other than the lone loss to Iowa, MSU has scored between 24 and 45 points in all 11 of its wins. RB Edwin Baker has 387 rushing yards and 6 TD in his past three games. But the Spartans have not faced a defense as powerful as Alabama’s unit which ranks fifth in the nation in scoring (14.1 PPG) and sixth in yardage (296 YPG).

Alabama’s rushing attack has been a huge disappointment (36th in nation) one year after Mark Ingram won the Heisman. Ingram has gone eight straight games without rushing for 100 yards and his total of 816 rushing yards is not even half of what he did in 2009 (1,658 rush yds). The Tide have been much more successful throwing the football, ranking 28th in the nation with 260 passing YPG. Greg McElroy (19 TD, 5 INT) is sixth in the country in passing efficiency and WR Julio Jones finished second in the SEC in receptions (6.3 per game) and receiving yards (90.3 YPG). McElroy was knocked out of the last game against Auburn but he is expected to start on Saturday night.

Alabama is an impressive 32-22-3 in its 57 all-time bowls, including a 9-5 mark since 1991. Michigan State has only been to 20 bowls, posting a sub-par 7-13 record. Since winning the Sun Bowl in 1990, the Spartans are 2-8 in bowl games and riding a four-game bowl losing skid.

Michigan State is 5-7-1 against current SEC teams but it has never faced Alabama in its program’s history. The Big Ten school has pulled off upset wins in five of the past six Capital One bowl games. The FoxSheets show a four-star trend picking underdog Michigan State to keep the final margin within single digits:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (42-16 since 1992.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The Under has a 4-1 record in the past five games in the Capital One Bowl series. The FoxSheets also lean towards the Under in this season’s installment with this four-star trend.

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ALABAMA) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division I-A conferences. (56-18 since 1992.) (75.7%, +36.2 units. Rating = 4*).

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Michigan goes for rare ATS win vs. Mississippi St.


GATOR BOWL
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (7-5)
vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-4)

Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Mississippi State -4.5, Total: 60

Michigan looks to snap an eight-game ATS winless streak when it takes on Mississippi State from the SEC in the Gator Bowl. Look at the bottom of this story to see all the different reasons to bet against Michigan and head coach Rich Rodriguez. The Bulldogs played a brutal schedule this year and won the games they were supposed to, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a favorite.

Wolverines QB Denard Robinson had a fantastic year with 3,959 total yards and 30 total TD. Considering the Bulldogs have defended the run (122 YPG, 19th in nation) much better than the pass (236 YPG, 89th in nation), Robinson may want to show off his arm more than his legs. His favorite target is Roy Roundtree, who ranks third in the Big Ten with 73.5 receiving YPG. Michigan’s defense gave little support to Robinson’s offense this year, ranking 108th in yardage allowed (448 YPG) and 102nd in points allowed (33.8 PPG).

Mississippi State’s defense has been much better, allowing only 20.3 PPG (27th in nation). Bulldogs QB Chris Relf has been up-and-down this season, but his last two games have been his biggest ups with 512 passing yards, 169 rushing yards and four total TD. Junior Vick Ballard has 16 rushing touchdowns this season and four 100-yard games in his past seven contests, averaging 104 YPG over this stretch.

Michigan is making its 40th bowl appearance (19-20) and its third appearance in the Gator Bowl (1-1). Mississippi State is 7-6 all-time in bowl action, including three straight wins. This game will mark MSU’s first New Year’s Day bowl since the 1999 Cotton Bowl and will also be the first time the Bulldogs are pitted against a Big Ten school in a bowl.

Michigan and Mississippi State have never met, but Michigan is an eye-popping 23-5-1 (82.1%) all-time versus SEC schools, including 7-3 against the SEC in bowl games. However, the Michigan program under Rich Rodriguez has been awful ATS down the stretch, as evidence by the three FoxSheets trends below, making Mississippi State the pick:

Rich Rodriguez is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) in the second half of the season as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 23.9, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 6*).

Rich Rodriguez is 2-18 ATS (-17.8 Units) after playing a conference game as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 25.8, OPPONENT 33.0 - (Rating = 6*).

Rich Rodriguez is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 26.5, OPPONENT 37.4 - (Rating = 5*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under on Saturday.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (MICHIGAN) - with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. (125-68 over the last 10 seasons.) (64.8%, +50.2 units. Rating = 3*).

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TCU tries to remain perfect vs. Wisconsin


ROSE BOWL
TCU HORNED FROGS (12-0)
vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (11-1)

Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 1, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TCU -3, Total: 58

TCU looks to complete a perfect 13-0 season when it faces Big Ten powerhouse Wisconsin in Saturday’s Rose Bowl. This game pits TCU’s top-ranked defense (215 YPG and 11.4 PPG) versus the high-powered rushing offense of Wisconsin (247 YPG). The Badgers have three games of 70+ points this year, including two of the past three contests.

Wisconsin has rushed for at least 140 yards in each of its 12 games, including a stunning 341 YPG average in the past three contests. During this stretch, sophomore Montee Ball has 518 rushing yards and 11 TD, while James White has 459 yards and 5 scores. RB John Clay only has four carries in the past three games because of a knee injury, but he expects to be a much bigger factor in the Rose Bowl. In 36 career games, Clay has 3,337 rushing yards and 40 touchdowns. QB Scott Tolzien ranks fourth in the nation in passing efficiency with a 74.3% completion rate, 16 TD and 6 INT.

TCU senior QB Andy Dalton ranks just behind Tolzien for fifth place in passing efficiency, throwing 26 TD and just 6 INT. He is a big part of the Horned Frogs offense, which is among the nation’s best. They rank in the country’s top 10 in rushing yardage (261 YPG), total yardage (492 YPG) and points scored (43.3 PPG). Dalton will also be looking for redemption (and his 42nd career win) after throwing three interceptions in last year’s 17-10 Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State. He has been bothered by an elbow injury, but will start in his final collegiate game.

Wisconsin’s three games of 70+ points is eye-popping, but the Horned Frogs defense is simply amazing. They have only allowed 200 passing yards ONCE this year and only two teams have gained over 100 rushing yards. Sure they played some MWC cupcakes, but they also stymied BCS schools with quality offenses like Baylor (479 total YPG this year, 263 vs. TCU) and Oregon State (255 total yds vs. TCU) with both Rodgers brothers healthy.

TCU is playing in its 27th bowl, carrying an 11-14-1 record. This is also the Horned Frogs’ sixth consecutive bowl, posting a 4-1 record in the first five. The loss was a 17-10 defeat to Boise State in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.

Wisconsin makes its 22nd bowl trip in school history, sporting an 11-10 record. This season marks the ninth straight bowl trip and 14th bowl in the past 15 seasons for the Badgers. They are 8-5 in these most-recent 14 bowls.

Wisconsin has won its last three Rose Bowl games, but the FoxSheets show two reasons backing TCU as the pick:

Gary Patterson is 16-4 ATS (80.0%, +11.6 Units) after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. The average score was TCU 38.8, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 3*).

TCU is 26-8 ATS (76.5%, +17.2 Units) after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was TCU 35.2, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets give a five-star reason to expect the Over.

Bret Bielema is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of WISCONSIN. The average score was WISCONSIN 38.1, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 5*).

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Orange Bowl Free Pick: Stanford vs Virginia Tech


Never before in Orange Bowl history has an Atlantic Coast Conference team met a Pacific-10 opponent.

That changes when fifth-ranked Stanford takes on No. 12 Virginia Tech on Jan. 3 at 5:30 PT at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Stanford is minus three with the ‘over/under’ at 58 ½.

Virginia Tech persevered its way to this major bowl game by winning its last 11 games. Stanford is the glamour team, though, in this matchup. The Cardinal have a popular head coaching candidate in Jim Harbaugh and junior quarterback Andrew Luck could be the No. 1 overall pick if he forgoes his senior season.

No disrespect to long-time and respected Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer and Tyrod Taylor, the ACC player of the year, but it’s hard not to like Stanford at this pointspread.

Sparked by Luck, the Cardinal set a school record with 484 points in going 11-1. Their only loss was to undefeated Pac-10 champion Oregon, 52-31, as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs.

Luck threw for more than 3,000 yards, threw 28 touchdown passes – breaking the school record of 27 shared by John Elway and Steven Stenstrom – and was mobile enough to rush for 438 yards while being sacked just five times in 349 attempts.

Tyrod Taylor has drawn comparisons to Michael Vick due to his running and passing skills. The Hokies have an excellent ground attack featuring Taylor, Ryan Williams, Darren Evans and David Wilson. But the Hokies don’t have the vertical passing game Stanford has. The Hokies rank 75th in passing.

Luck may be the best pure passer in the country completing 70.2 percent of his throws. The Cardinal averages 40.3 points a game, eighth-highest in the nation.

Stanford also has an underrated defense. The Cardinal ranks in the top 25 in several categories, including scoring defense (11th allowing 17.7 points per game), total defense (24th), interceptions (17th) and rushing defense (24th).

Virginia Tech is the only team to win 10 games each of the past seven seasons. This is the Hokies’ 18th straight bowl appearance under Beamer. Virginia Tech is 8-9 in bowls during this time. This will be its fourth Orange Bowl.

Stanford is traveling cross-country. That could hurt its fan support. But the Cardinal will be excited to play in this big of a bowl. In just four years under Harbaugh, the Cardinal has gone from 1-11 to 11-1. They made their first bowl game last season since 2001 losing 31-27 to Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl as 10-point underdogs.

The Pac-10 turned out to be a very strong conference at the top with Oregon and Stanford. The ACC, by contrast, has been down for a while.

Virginia Tech caught a break in its 44-33 ACC title game victory against Florida State when the Seminoles star quarterback Christian Ponder was held out because of an elbow injury.

The Hokies expected to contend for the national championship. Those hopes were dashed early when they lost to Boise State in their opener, 33-30, on a touchdown pass with 1:09 left and then lost four days later at home to I-AA team James Madison.

It’s a tremendous credit to the Hokies to come back from those losses and capture their third ACC title in four years. But the Cardinal figures to be the more motivated squad as bowl games are something fairly new for them.

Virginia Tech is 14-5 ATS the past 19 times it has been an underdog. The Hokies also are 39-17 ATS versus foes with a winning mark.

The Hokies also have won and covered in their last two bowl games beating Tennessee 37-14 as five-point favorites last season in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and defeating Cincinnati, 20-7, as 2 ½-point underdogs two years ago in the Orange Bowl.

But I’m sold on Luck and Stanford.

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BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR GOES TOMORROW......