The Bum's BCS Best Bets Bowl GOY, News, Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

Conference Bowl Trends
December 23, 2010


Conference bowl pointspread performances are apt to fluctuate from year to year, but sometimes they don't (case in point, the MAC's 0-10 bowl spread mark the past two seasons). Whatever, they are part of the bowl handicapping exercise. And with that in mind, we're providing a review of how respective conferences have performed vs. the pointspread in postseason play since the early '70s, with added emphasis on results recorded in recent campaigns.

ACC... Nice stabilization the past two years for the ACC, which has covered 11 of 17 bowls since 2008 after a combined 4-10 bowl spread mark in 2006-07. From 2001-05, loop teams were a combined 21-11 vs. the number in bowls. This season— Georgia Tech (Independence), NC State (Champs Sports), Maryland (Military). North Carolina (Music City), Clemson (Meineke Car Care), Miami-Florida (Sun), Florida State (Chick fil-A), Virginia Tech (Orange), Boston College (Kraft).

Big East... The loop, which once relied upon Miami-Florida (since departed for ACC) to provide its bowl glitz, has mostly held its own even without the Canes, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, generally hanging around the .500 mark since, as it did with a 3-3 mark a year ago. This season—Louisville (Beef O'Brady's), West Virginia (Champs Sports), Syracuse (Yankee Pinstripe), South Florida (Meineke Car Care), UConn (Fiesta), Pitt (BBVA Compass).

Big Ten... Big Ten bowl teams bounced back to cover 4 of 6 tries a year ago after back-to-back losing efforts in 2007 & '08. Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since '07, while Ohio State will look to end its 0-7 bowl drought vs. SEC foes when facing Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, can Northwestern get its first bowl win since 1949 when facing Texas Tech in the Dallas/TicketCity Classic? This season—Iowa (Insight), Illinois (Texas), Northwestern (Dallas TicketCity), Penn State (Outback), Michigan State (Capital One), Michigan (Gator), Wisconsin (Rose), Ohio State (Sugar).

Big XII... Another disappointing run for Big XII "bowlers" last season, dropping 5 of 8 spread decisions. The league has had more than a few clunker bowl campaigns in recent memory (besides last season, note a 2-6 mark in '06, and Big XII teams also covered only 4 of 15 bowl chances between 2003-04). Since the league was officially formed in '96 (an amalgamation of the old Big 8 with four former SWC schools), Big XII teams stand only 42-60 vs. the line in postseason play, continuing a trend from the old Big Eight, which was also a notorious bowl underachiever. No Texas "bowling" this year for the first time since 1997. This season—Missouri (Insight), Baylor (Texas), Oklahoma State (Alamo), Kansas State (Yankee Pinstripe), Nebraska (Holiday),Texas Tech (Dallas TicketCity), Oklahoma (Fiesta), Texas A&M (Cotton).

Conference USA... We've seen various facelifts in the brief but colorful history of C-USA, which has provided a home for various former gridiron nomads, many of whom having campaigned for years as independents or in other non-BCS leagues. Its teams have generally held their own in bowls over the years, with a 29-28 bowl spread mark since its inception. This season—UTEP (New Mexico), Southern Miss (Beef O'Brady's), Tulsa (Hawaii), East Carolina (Military), SMU (Armed Forces), UCF (Liberty).

Mountain West... Enjoy the current Mountain West while you can; next year, Utah (to the new Pac-12) and BYU (going indy) are gone, while TCU leaves for the Big East in 2012. Joining up will be Boise State next year and Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada in 2012. Got that? Before the changes, note the Horned Frogs' upcoming Rose Bowl trip. MWC reps were also a solid 4-1 vs. the line in bowls a year ago. This season—BYU (New Mexico), Utah (Las Vegas), San Diego State (Poinsettia), Air Force (Independence), TCU (Rose).

Pacific 10... The Pac-10 had been making lots of noise in 2007-08, covering 9 of 11 bowl chances in those years (including a spotless 5-0 straight-up mark in '08) before slipping a bit last season to a 3-4 bowl spread mark. This year, the combination of Southern Cal's probation, plus two BCS teams (Oregon & Stanford), meant the league was scrambling to fill other bowl slots, three of which it couldn't accommodate. Add it up, and there's only four bowl reps for the Pac this season. This season—Arizona (Alamo), Washington (Holiday), Stanford (Orange), Oregon (BCS title game).

Southeastern... The SEC slipped a bit last season, dropping five of nine bowl spread decisions, but nonetheless crowned its fourth straight BCS title cover and winner (Alabama). Auburn tries to make it five straight title wins for the SEC in this year's championship game, January 10, vs. Oregon. SEC teams are 48-31 vs. the line in bowls since '99. This season—Tennessee (Music City), Georgia (Liberty), South Carolina (Chick fil-A), Florida (Outback), Alabama (Capital One), Mississippi State (Gator), Arkansas (Sugar), LSU (Cotton), Kentucky (BBVA Compass), Auburn (BCS title game).

WAC... We might not be giving the WAC much space in future conference reviews, as the league prepares to lose key members Boise State (next year), plus Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada thereafter. What happens to future bowl tie-ins with games such as the Humanitarian and Hawaii Bowls, longtime WAC staples, remains to be seen. And a bittersweet end to things this season, with Boise's loss to Nevada robbing the league of its potential fourth BCS slot in the past five campaigns. This season—Fresno State (Humanitarian), Boise State (Las Vegas), Hawaii (Hawaii), Nevada (Kraft).

MAC, Sun Belt, independents, & others... A once-robust collection of Independents has basically dwindled to a few, but we have more "indy bowlers" this season than any year in recent memory with Army (Armed Forces) "bowling" for the first time since 1996, joining Navy (Poinsettia) and Notre Dame (Sun). Interestingly, their collective numbers are still the best for the most-extended periods of measurement, although that's nothing more than a curiosity these days, with almost all indies having joined a conference in the last 20 years. Big West & MAC champs met annually from 1981 thru ’96 in California/California Raisin (thru ’91) and Las Vegas (‘92-96) Bowls. Big West was 8-6 vs. line in bowls from ‘87-2000 but no longer competes in football, its old gridiron members now in the WAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt. MAC teams have dropped all ten bowl spread decisions since 2008. This year the MAC has five "bowlers"—Northern Illinois (Humanitarian), Ohio (New Orleans), Toledo (Little Caesars), and Miami-Ohio (GoDaddy.com). The Sun Belt was 2-0 vs. the line in bowls last year and stands 7-6 vs. the line in postseason since 2001; this season Troy (New Orleans) and Middle Tennessee (GoDaddy.com) make it into the bowl lineup.

[StarDust Bum]

Little Caesars Bowl
December 22, 2010


Christmas has come and gone, taking with it a house full of family and other assorted headaches. Now gamblers can get back to the task at hand by loading up on football action this Sunday. So the NFL will be getting plenty of love, but the college bowls will get back in gear, too.

For those looking to get a respite from the pros can partake of the Little Caesars Bowl between Florida International (6-6 straight up and against the spread) and the Rockets from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

Toledo (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) makes the short trip up I-75 for its first postseason berth 2005. And the Rockets are arguably playing their best football at the moment, having gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last five regular season battles.

Tim Beckman’s club isn’t going to wow anyone with its stats. This is a group that was 53rd in scoring offense (27.6 points per game) and 79th in total offense (395.5 yards per game).

So how are the Rockets moving the ball right now? By hitting the ground game hard, that’s how. They’re averaging 156.0 rushing YPG this season to rank 58th in the country. That tends to happen when you have an offensive line that averages 303.8 pounds per player. Adonis Thomas (873 yards, 6 TDs) has been the top rusher for Toledo this season. But quarterback Austin Dantin is the one finding the end zone more via his legs with eight scores on 142 total rushing yards.

Dantin has also proven to be more than capable of throwing the ball by connecting on 66 percent of his passes for 1,256 yards and seven scores. However, he’s “questionable” for this game after a separated shoulder he suffered against Eastern Michigan on Oct. 30. That most likely means that Terrance Owens will set up under center for the Rockets. Owens has played great as a true freshman by throwing 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have a guy like Eric Page to throw to on a regular basis.

All Page has done this season is average 7.8 receptions per game this season for 90.1 YPG, which ranks fifth among all receivers nationally. He’s also been a serious threat on special teams this year with 31.8 YPG on kickoff returns (3rd in FBS), bringing back two returns in his last game against Central Michigan for touchdowns.

Toledo is going to need everything they can get out of Page on Sunday night when they take on the Golden Panthers’ defense. Florida International has one of the more improved defensive units in the nation. They were giving up 491.6 yards per game last season. In 2010, FIU surrendered just 363.3 YPG. That’s an impressive difference of 128.3 YPG.

The big question for gamblers is that are those defensive numbers improved because of improved talent or is it because the Sun Belt Conference (for which they shared the championship) just not a good league? Well, the easiest way to break that down is to see how they played in their opening month against BCS talent.

Florida International went 0-4 SU to start the season, but 2-2 ATS against its non-conference foes to open the year. Its defense opened up strong with good showings against Rutgers (172 yards) and Texas A&M (400 yards). While people might want to harp on the yardage allowed, the Golden Panthers suffered a big collapse in the fourth quarter after carrying a 20-6 advantage. FIU’s stoppers didn’t fare too strong against Maryland (419 yards) and Pitt (469 yards), so it could be argued that its defense tired as it went through that gauntlet.

Even when the defense isn’t holding its own, the Golden Panthers have a strong offense to help pick up the slack. Mario Cristobal’s crew has rushed for 189.2 YPG and 213.2 YPG through the air.

FIU’s running game was dealt a blow when Jeremiah Harden went down with a toe injury against Louisiana-Monroe. Yet they’ve done quite well with the troika of Darian Mallary, Kendrick Rhodes and Darriet Perry. That entire group has done since Harden’s injury is average 240.0 rushing YPG in their last four games.

Wesley Carroll has been one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The former Mississippi State signal caller has completed 61.8 percent of his throws for 2,483 yards and 15 touchdowns. What has been an issue with Carroll is an innate ability to thrown an interception. He’s had 13 passes picked off by defenders this season. Although, Carroll has been better about he decisions throwing the ball with just two interceptions over the last four games.

The sportsbook have this game as being a fairly close affair, evidenced by tabbing the Rockets as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 56 ½. Bettors looking for FIU to pick up a win in its first bowl game for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

If you think that line is a little strange, then you’ll be glad to know that you’re not the only one to think as much. “What's strange to me is to see a team that won its conference title that a dog to a team that did not,” says VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. “While Toledo has more wins it played in a conference that was just a cut above Ivy League status. The site and lack of fan support for the Panther favors the Rockets, little else does.”

As adamant as Lawrence is about the line being a tad misplaced, Sportsbook.com’s Mike Pierce believes it is right where it should be. “I think this line at Toledo -1.5 is perfect for this matchup. While it will essentially be a home game for Toledo (only an hour drive to Detroit), I believe that the Sun Belt is just as good of a conference as the MAC has been this year.”

Pierce concludes, “FIU beat Troy 52-35 on the road this season, and you saw what Troy did to another MAC team Ohio this past weekend, destroying them in their bowl matchup.”

Something else that can swing some folks towards the Golden Panthers covering the number is the fact that Sun Belt teams are 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their past eight bowl games.

Little Caesars/Motor City Bowl history has tilted to the favorites, going 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS. However, the underdogs have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over the last three editions of this contest.

The ‘over’ has gone 8-5 in these contests. That would fit in nicely with the fact that Sun Belt programs have had high scoring battles in six of their last eight bowl games.

You can catch this game on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Tale of the Tape
December 21, 2010


One time-tested theory that holds up well during the post-season is isolating teams and how they fared in games this campaign against winning opposition.

It’s one thing to make your mark against stone-cold losers. It’s another to be able to go toe-to-toe against winners.

Listed below is a breakdown of 2010 bowlers that fared well against teams that owned a winning record at the time of their meeting this season.

Here are the teams that were winners on both sides of the SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) ledgers against winning teams this season. Check it out:

Arkansas 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS
Auburn 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS
Boise State 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS
Connecticut 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
Hawaii 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
Michigan State 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS
Missouri 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS
Navy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS
NC State 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS
Northern Illinois 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS
Ohio State 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS
Ohio U 2-1 SU and 2-1 AT
Oklahoma 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS
Oklahoma State 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS
Pittsburgh 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
South Carolina 5-3 SU and 5-3 ATS
TCU 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS
Texas A&M 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS
Tulsa 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS
Virginia Tech 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS
West Virginia 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS
Wisconsin 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS

On the flip side are the 2010 bowlers that struggled both SU and ATS in games against winning teams this season. They include:

Arizona 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS
Army 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS
East Carolina 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS
Florida 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS
Georgia 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS
Georgia Tech 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
Kansas State 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS
Louisville 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
Michigan 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS
Mississippi State 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
Penn State 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS
SMU 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
South Florida 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS
Texas Tech 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS
Washington 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS

There you have it. A tale of the tape of your 2010 bowl teams. Let the fights begin.

[StarDust Bum]

Toledo faces FIU in its bowl debut Sunday


LITTLE CAESARS BOWL
FLA INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN PANTHERS (6-6)
vs. TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-4)

Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 26, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Toledo -1, Total: 56

Two schools that were not expected to reach a bowl this year will meet in Detroit the night after Christmas for the Little Caesars Bowl. Florida International had gone 9-39 (19%) in the previous four seasons and started the 2010 campaign 0-4 before winning six of seven. Toledo returns to a bowl for the first time since 2005 when the Rockets waxed UTEP 45-13 in the GMAC Bowl.

Three of the Rockets’ four losses this year have been to bowl participants (Boise State, Arizona and Northern Illinois). Since its five giveaways at Boise State, Toledo has only five turnovers in its past six games while forcing 17 (+12 margin). Toledo QB Austin Dantin will miss his fourth straight game due to a shoulder injury, but sophomore Terrance Owens has been tremendous as Dantin’s replacement. Owens has thrown for 237 YPG with 11 TD and just 2 INT in the past four games. His favorite target has been sophomore WR Eric Page, who has 391 receiving yards and five touchdowns in this four-game stretch. Toledo can also run the football effectively, averaging 156 YPG on the ground. Junior Adonis Thomas has 905 rushing yards and 368 receiving yards this year with seven TD in his past six games. In his past three contests, Thomas has racked up an eye-popping 545 total yards (388 rushing 157 receiving).

FIU’s offense has been firing on all cylinders in its past five games. The Golden Panthers are averaging 240 rushing YPG over this span and RB Darriet Perry (14 TD this year) has scored nine times on the ground in these five contests. QB Wesley Carroll has completed 72% of his passes for 203 YPG and nine touchdowns in the five games. WR T.Y. Hilton had a run of 508 receiving yards over five games before being held to one catch in the Dec. 4 loss to Middle Tennessee State.

In this Little Caesars bowl series, formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, MAC teams have gone just 2-6 SU & ATS in the past eight games. The Rockets won the 2001 Motor City Bowl, but were crushed in their past two appearances in this bowl series, losing 51-25 in 2002 to Boston College and suffering a 39-10 loss to Connecticut in 2004.

Florida International is making its bowl debut. The Golden Panthers have has only been an FBS school since 2004, compiling a 17-52 record in their first six FBS seasons before their 6-6 mark this year.

In past Little Caesars Bowl games with lines of six points or higher, the underdog is 3-1 ATS. In those with less than six, such as this 2010 installment, the favorite has the slight edge at 5-4 ATS.

These schools have split their past two meetings. FIU won big in Toledo, 35-16, in 2008, but the Rockets won the rematch 41-31 in Florida. The FoxSheets give two reasons to pick Toledo to win again on Sunday:

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 2-11 ATS (15.4%, -10.1 Units) when playing with two weeks or more of rest since 1992. The average score was FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 18.1, OPPONENT 36.0 - (Rating = 1*).

TOLEDO is 50-31 ATS (61.7%, +15.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992. The average score was TOLEDO 33.5, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 0*).

Eight of the past 11 Little Caesars Bowl games have gone Under the Total. However, the FoxSheets give a highly-rated reason to play the Over:

Play Over - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TOLEDO) - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games. (58-24 since 1992.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*).

[GREEKSTAKINOVER]

im lost. so what is your pick in the toledo game?? thank you and good luck.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida International - 8:30 PM ET Florida International +1.5 500
Toledo - Under 56 500


Good Luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Sorry about not posting the AirForce game.....didn't realize it started early......i was leaning with AF and the under.....

Working on tomorrows games now.....will be up soon as again there is a early game.......

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, December 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina State - 6:30 PM ET North Carolina State +2.5 500
West Virginia - Under 48.5 500

Missouri - 10:00 PM ET Iowa +2.5 500
Iowa - Under 46.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Top two rushing offenses meet Monday


INDEPENDENCE BOWL
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (6-6)
vs. AIR FORCE FALCONS (8-4)

Independence Stadium – Shreveport, LA
Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 27, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Air Force -3, Total: 56

This game will be all about the triple option as the top two rushing schools in the nation meet in Monday’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA. Georgia Tech has averaged 327 yards on the ground with 30 TD while Air Force has 318 rushing YPG with 40 touchdowns. Combined, the two teams have completed a mere 136 passes for the entire season.

Georgia Tech has been reeling since QB Josh Nesbitt (737 rush yds, 10 rush TD) broke his arm, with just one win in the past four games. The Jackets have turned the ball over 10 times during this span. Nesbitt is holding out hope he could return for this bowl game, but most likely it will be sophomore Tevin Washington taking the snaps. Washington is 17-for-38 (45%) for 292 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in his three starts, while adding 289 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Anthony Allen leads Georgia Tech in rushing with 1,225 yards (5.6 YPC) and six touchdowns.

Air Force could very easily be 11-1, with three losses coming by five points or less. The Falcons won their final three games by a combined score of 125-65. QB Tim Jefferson has nine total TD during the win streak. For the season, Jefferson has thrown for 10 touchdowns and rushed for 769 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Junior RB Asher Clark leads the team with 1,001 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC.

Georgia Tech is making its 14th consecutive bowl game appearance, which ties for the fourth-longest active streak in the FBS. The Yellow Jackets have lost five straight bowls, including the past three by a combined score of 102 to 45. Air Force is making its third appearance in the Independence Bowl, having won back-to-back games in 1983 and 1984. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson beat Air Force five of six times when he was the coach of Navy.

After a long run of dominance by the underdogs in the Independence Bowl in the late 90’s and early 00’s, favorites have turned the tide, going 6-1 SU & ATS since 2003. Only two of the last 11 Independence Bowl games have been decided by more than a touchdown, but one of those blowouts was Georgia’s 44-20 win against Texas A&M last year.

Georgia Tech is 3-0 vs. Air Force, but the schools haven’t faced each other since 1979. The FoxSheets show this five-star coaching trend siding with Georgia Tech to win on Monday:

Paul Johnson is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Johnson 33.9, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 5*).

The FoxSheets also give two reasons to play the Under:

AIR FORCE is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 this season. The average score was AIR FORCE 21.3, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 2*).

AIR FORCE is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game this season. The average score was AIR FORCE 22.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Odds: Missouri and Iowa stay 'under'

Their campuses less than 250 miles apart, one might think the Missouri Tigers and Iowa Hawkeyes make for solid geographic rivals. But there's really no gridiron rivalry to speak of. The Insight Bowl matchup between the two universities will be just the 13th meeting between Iowa and Missouri, and the first in more than 101 years.

Both schools spent time ranked in the top 10 and with designs for a BCS invite. Instead they meet in Tempe, Arizona where the Tigers and Hawkeyes tee it up Tuesday at Sun Devil Stadium with a 7 p.m. PT kick (ESPN).

Iowa opened ninth in the AP preseason poll and was still just outside the top 10 in each set of rankings after a 5-1 start. Missouri, unranked by both the writers and coaches to begin the campaign, climbed as high as No. 6 on the AP chart in late-October when the Tigers stood 7-0.

The Hawkeyes suffered their second loss of the year to Wisconsin about that time, then fell apart at the tail-end of their slate with three successive defeats at Northwestern, to Ohio State and at Minnesota to finish 7-5 straight up (5-6-1 against the spread). Iowa's five losses were by a combined 18 points.

Missouri (7-5 against the spread) stumbled with consecutive road defeats at Nebraska and Texas Tech after the 7-0 start, but ended a respectable 10-2 and ranked 12th in the BCS.

Despite the disparity in records and rankings, oddsmakers opened the contest fairly level with Missouri favored by a single point. That was before Iowa ran into some troubles off the field that pushed the number up to the Tigers minus three at shops like BetJamaica.

Tuesday's total moved up a point in early college football betting action, but has since settled back where it began, 46½.

Iowa's troubles started just after the bowl lineup was set earlier this month. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, the Hawkeyes' career receiving leader, was arrested on felony drug charges. That was followed by head coach Kirk Ferentz announcing Adam Robinson had been suspended for violating team rules. Robinson, a sophomore, was the team's leading running back this season with 941 rushing yards.

Running back Jewel Hampton, who was injured early in the season and already out of the picture, also decided to leave Iowa and transfer to another school in the spring. The running back corps also will be without second-string fullback Brad Rogers after a heart test came back with concerns in the last week.

It leaves quarterback Ricky Stanzi left holding the ball both literally and figuratively for the Hawkeyes offense. The senior out of Ohio had a fabulous season with a 25:4 TD-to-interception ratio, and he still has a nice offensive line in front of him plus talented junior wideout Marvin McNutt to look for downfield.

But Stanzi will need some help on the ground, with true freshman Marcus Coker (81 carries, 403 yards, 1 TD) left to carry that load.

Missouri arrived in Tempe with its full complement on offense, a well-balanced group that ranked in the top 50 this season in both passing (238.2) and rushing (162.9) yards per game. At the helm is junior quarterback Blaine Gabbert who threw for over 2,700 yards and 15 scores.

The Tigers employed a running back by committee led by De'Vion Moore and Henry Josey who did just enough to keep defenses honest. Gabbert's two primary targets through the air are tight end Michael Egnew, recently named a 1st-team All-American, and wide receiver T.J. Moe. However, as good as the unit can be, Missouri's offense never fulfilled its preseason promise.

One thing the two squads share in common is their ability to keep the opposition off the scoreboard. Iowa allowed just 16.4 points per game, seventh-best in the nation, while Missouri was one notch higher on the charts surrendering just 15.2 per contest.

Another commonality is giving the ball up way less than taking it away. Iowa's numbers were outstanding in 2010, committing just nine turnovers while registering 23 takeaways. Missouri comes into this matchup with a plus-11 in the turnover battle, committing 16 while taking 27.

Mistake-free offenses and strong defenses sounds like a stalemate, and stale is exactly what this game should be. But will it stay 'under' as the stats suggest? Both Missouri and Iowa stayed below the total eight of their 11 lined games during the regular season, the Hawkeyes ending their slate with five consecutive 'unders' with all six Tigers games outside Columbia going that direction on the scoreboard.

We're dealing with a bunch of 20-year-olds who will have spent the better part of a holiday week away from home. Iowa has the off-field issues, and Missouri could feel slighted to be playing in this game instead of perhaps against LSU in the Cotton Bowl where Texas A&M will rep the Big 12. The Tigers blasted the Aggies in October as four-point road underdogs, 30-9. One or both teams could be restless and/or out of the mood by kickoff which could lead to early mistakes.

I still like Missouri, though I wished I had grabbed the Tigers minus the single point earlier. And I still like the 'under,' just too many stats that way along with the fact it's hard for me to see Iowa putting more than 17 on the board if both teams play up to par. Missouri scores one for the Big 12 by a 24-17 count.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Bowl Free Pick: Mountaineers roll NC State

The Champs Sports Bowl between 22nd-ranked West Virginia and North Carolina State is an interesting contest for a couple of reasons. Both schools saw their Bowl Championship Series dreams vanish late in the year, and a victory in this spot would garner some redemption heading into the offseason.

The Mountaineers (9-3 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) finished the Big East campaign locked in a three-way tie atop the league, but Connecticut earned the berth in the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia wrapped up the regular season by going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS its final four games.

North Carolina State (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) was in position to play in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game before falling to Maryland in late November. The Wolfpack finished the year tied for second place with the Terrapins behind Florida State in the Atlantic Division.

Don Best Real-Time Odds lists West Virginia as 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ over NC State, with the total set at 48 ½. ESPN will provide coverage of Tuesday’s Champs Sports Bowl beginning at 3:30 p.m. PT from Orlando’s Citrus Bowl.

The key matchup in the Champs Sports Bowl figures to be between the Mountaineers defense against the Wolfpack’s offense. West Virginia concluded the year ranked second in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, second in rush defense by yielding 85.1 yards and third in total defense at 251.3 yards.

North Carolina State is driven by its offense and quarterback Russell Wilson. The junior signal caller led the ACC with 3,288 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, while also producing 394 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Wilson had eight games this season when he passed for 300 yards or more, helping the Wolfpack score an average of 32.6 points per contest.

Adding further intrigue to the game is the status of West Virginia head coach Bill Stewart, who will not be retained after the 2011 season. The school announced that Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen will serve as the Mountaineers’ offensive coordinator next year before taking over the head coaching duties. Holgorsen was a candidate for Pittsburgh’s head coaching job before getting hired in Morgantown.

West Virginia wrapped up its regular season by pounding Rutgers Dec. 4 as a 21-point home favorite, 35-14. The combined 49 points eclipsed the 47-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.

The Mountaineers scored 31 points or more in their six of their victories, while being limited to 14 points or fewer in their three losses. WVU is the only FBS squad not to surrender more than 21 points in a game this season.

Quarterback Geno Smith was 23-of-28 passing for a career-high 352 yards with a touchdown, while rushing 11 times for 44 yards. Running back Tavon Austin ran the ball once for 46 yards and a score, while catching six passes for 121 yards and a score.

The Mountaineers finished the contest with sizeable advantages in first downs (25-11), rushing yards (171-63), passing yards (352-140) and time of possession (33:20-26:40). West Virginia would have completely dominated the contest if the team didn’t lose the turnover battle (3-1).

NC State had won consecutive contests SU and four matchups in a row ATS before falling to Maryland in the season finale as a one-point road ‘chalk,’ 38-31. The combined 69 points soared ‘over’ the 53-point closing total, ending a string of five straight ‘under’ outings.

The Wolfpack led 14-0 after the first quarter, but they were promptly blanked in the second quarter while the Terps posted 17 points. NC State concluded the contest with advantages in first downs (32-18), rushing yards (123 to -9) and time of possession (31:08-28:52). However, the Wolfpack were unable to overcome a pair of turnovers while also trailing in passing yards (417-311).

Wilson completed 31-of-60 passes for 311 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing 17 times for 53 yards and a pair of scores. Running back James Washington paced the ground game with 15 carries for 55 yards, while wideout Darrell Davis caught four passes for 86 yards.

West Virginia and NC State have one common opponent this season. While the Wolfpack lost to Maryland to conclude their regular season, the Mountaineers upended the Terps Sept. 18 as a 10-point home favorite, 31-17.

Despite the fact that West Virginia and NC State are separated by just 430 miles, the two schools have not played each other since 1979. The Wolfpack won that contest, 38-14, but the Mountaineers lead the series, 5-4.

Ironically, this will be the third bowl matchup between the schools. West Virginia is making its eighth straight bowl appearance, and is 4-1 SU its previous five bowl games.

West Virginia center Joe Madsen and defensive lineman Josh Taylor are ‘doubtful’ versus the Wolfpack due to academics, while defensive back Brandon Hogan (knee injury) and linebacker Donovan Miles (head) are ‘out.’ Fullback Chris Snook is listed as ‘questionable’ due to a head injury.

NC State place kicker Josh Czajkowski (hamstring) and defensive end Sylvester Crawford (hip) are done for the season.

Tuesday’s forecast for Orlando, Florida calls for sunny skies, with a high of 57 degrees and a low of 36.

Prediction: West Virginia is the hot team right now, and is a more well-rounded squad than NC State. Expect the Mountaineers defense to take charge of the game, while the offense produces behind a balanced attack. West Virginia 30 – NC State 17

[StarDust Bum]

Iowa playing short-handed vs. Missouri


INSIGHT BOWL
MISSOURI TIGERS (10-2)
vs. IOWA HAWKEYES (7-5)

Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 28, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Missouri -3, Total: 46.5

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in this top-notch pre-New Year’s Day matchup. Iowa has lost three straight games (all by four points or less) while Missouri has won three in a row, all by double-digits. Iowa has been bad away from home this year (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS), and will have to play without top WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos after his arrest for drug charges. The Hawkeyes have also suspended RB Adam Robinson (941 rush yds, 11 total TD), who might not have played anyway due to his head injury. Freshman Marcus Coker (403 rushing yards, 5.0 YPC) will replace Robinson in the starting lineup

Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi has had a brilliant year with 25 TD and just 4 INT. Missouri’s signal caller, Blaine Gabbert, has taken a step back as a junior with 15 TD and 7 INT after 24 TD and 9 INT last year. Although Iowa has the edge under center, Missouri is the superior defensive team, ranking sixth in the nation in both scoring defense (15.2 PPG) and sacks (3.1 per game).

Iowa, 13-10-1 all-time in bowls, has a chance to win three straight bowl games for the first time in school history. The Hawkeyes won the 2009 Outback Bowl and the 2010 Orange Bowl. Missouri is playing in its sixth straight bowl game and 28th overall, carrying a 12-15 SU record in these games. The Tigers will play in their second Insight Bowl, having won a thrilling 34-31 game over West Virginia in 1998.

Last year’s six-turnover, 14-13 win for Iowa State over Minnesota notwithstanding, the Insight Bowl is usually a high-scoring affair with the Over at 13-4-1 since 1992. The Big 12 team has won four straight Insight Bowl games, with Minnesota on the losing end of three of those contests.

These schools haven’t played for 100 years, when Missouri beat Iowa 5-0 in 1910. Despite suspensions to two key Hawkeyes players, the FoxSheets give two reasons to play on Iowa for Tuesday’s game:

IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was IOWA 25.8, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*).

MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MISSOURI 29.3, OPPONENT 33.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also give two reasons to play the Under:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (39-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*).

MISSOURI is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992. The average score was MISSOURI 25.2, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

West Virginia favored by 2.5 over NC State

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (8-4)
vs. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (9-3)

Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: West Virginia -2.5, Total: 48.5

Two great quarterbacks try to end their seasons with a win when NC State and West Virginia play in Tuesday’s Champs Sports Bowl.

WVU has been punishing its opponents since back-to-back losses to Syracuse and Connecticut. In the four games since, the Mountaineers won all four by an average score of 31 to 11. QB Geno Smith has been a big reason for the offensive surge, with 218 pass YPG, 8 TD and just 1 INT during the win streak. The other star on the Mountaineers is RB Noel Devine who has rushed for 886 yards and six touchdowns this year. WVU ranks 64th in total offense (377 YPG) and 62nd in scoring (26.7 PPG).

NC State also has an excellent quarterback in Russell Wilson, who has thrown a touchdown pass in 23 straight games over the past two seasons. This year, Wilson has 35 total TD (26 pass, 9 rush), but he also has 14 INT, including picks in each of his past nine games. Wilson is second on the team in rushing behind Mustafa Greene (584 yards), who has just 89 rushing yards in his past four games combined. NC State certainly has the edge in this game on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolfpack rank 12th in the nation in stopping the run (113 YPG) and is fourth among FBS schools in sacks (3.3 per game) and tackles for loss (7.8 per game).

West Virginia is making its ninth straight bowl appearance, winning four of its past five bowls. NC State is making its 25th bowl appearance, carrying a 12-11-1 SU record. These schools are meeting for the third time in a postseason game. In 1972, NC State won big, 49-12, but WVU got its revenge three years later with a 13-10 victory.

In terms of Champs Sports Bowl history, Miami’s 20-14 loss to Wisconsin last year ended a run of six straight wins for ACC schools in the Champs Sports Bowl. Although that game was close, that is not the norm for this series, as 10 of the past 12 final margins have been by more than a touchdown.

West Virginia leads the all-time series 5-4, but the schools have not faced each other since 1979, a 38-14 win for the Wolfpack . This FoxSheets trend gives the edge to West Virginia to win on Tuesday:

Play Against - Any team (NC STATE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after 7+ games. (49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also give two reasons to play the Under:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) - off a home win by 17 points or more against opponent off a road loss. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) - with a good defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. (86-43 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.7%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*).

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Wednesday, December 29Game Score Status Pick Amount

East Carolina - 2:30 PM ET Maryland -7.5 500
Maryland - Over 67.5 500

Illinois - 6:00 PM ET Baylor -1 500
Baylor - Over 62.5 500

Arizona - 9:15 PM ET Oklahoma State -4.5 500
Oklahoma State - Under 66.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Bowl Tips
December 28, 2010

Christmas is nothing more than a distant memory as parties are starting to get formed for New Year’s Eve. And that also means we’re going to see more bowl games on the schedule from here on out. Wednesday’s schedule has three games on it that go from our nation’s capital to the heart of Texas. Let’s look at the trio of college gridiron action.

Military Bowl - 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN

Wednesday’s battles get underway with a game that could see the scoreboard break. That’s what could happen at the Military Bowl at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.

The sportsbooks have listed Maryland (8-4 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 68. Gamblers that want to play the Pirates to win outright can expect a plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250) return. That total is the highest we’re going to see before the BCS Title Game between Auburn and Oregon.

This total comes down to how East Carolina (6-6 SU, ATS) can fare in this contest.

The Pirates have proven themselves to be one of the more prolific passing teams in the country, averaging 38.2 points per game to rank 12th overall. ECU is picking up 445.5 yards per game on offense, with 319.3 yard through the air. Quarterback Dominique Davis is the star of the show with 45 of the Pirates’ 58 touchdowns coming on the ground (9) and on pass plays (36). And Davis should have plenty of chances to make big throws against Maryland’s defense as they’re getting hit for 220.9 YPG via the skies.

Davis and Company will not only be fighting the Terps’ defense, but he’ll have to fight his team’s own defense. East Carolina has the worst defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision, yielding 478.8 YPG. Even worse for the Pirates is that they are giving up 258.0 YPG through the air. Plus, ECU is allowing teams to move the chains on third down 51.7 percent of the time.

Numbers like those will no doubt help true freshman QB Danny O’Brien as he guides the last offense Ralph Friedgen will coach for the Terps. O’Brien completed 33-of-47 passes for 417 yards and four touchdowns in his last start, a 38-31 win over North Carolina State. That completed a year that saw him throw 21 scores to just six interceptions.

Maryland has not been a good wager over the last five years as a 7 ½-point favorite, evidenced by a 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS. Although they’ve won and covered on both occasions it happened in 2010.

East Carolina is 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS when listed as an underdog against the ACC over the last five seasons. While that sounds all well and good, keep in mind that the Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their past five games in this spot.

This is just the third edition of what was formerly known as the EagleBank Bowl. Yet we’ve seen the favorites go 2-0 SU and ATS.

Texas Bowl – 6:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

The Big 10 and Big 12 get set for another round of postseason warfare when Illinois (6-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) and the Bears square off in the Texas Bowl from Reliant Stadium in Houston. Most betting shops have listed Baylor (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) as a 1 ½-point “chalk” with a total 62 ½. You can grab the Fighting Illini at plus-105 (risk $100 to win $105) on the money line.

Not much was expected out of the Illini before the season started. But they jumped out to a 5-3 SU and 5-2 ATS mark to start the 2010 campaign. While that was a nice start, Ron Zook’s club took a dive to close out the year. Illinois went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in its final four games. To be fair, its losses to the Wolverines, Golden Gophers and Bulldogs were decided by a grand total of eight points.

The Bears are in relatively foreign territory as they make their first bowl since the 1994 Alamo Bowl. Baylor can appreciate what the Fighting Illini have gone through this season. Art Briles’ team jumped out to the Big XII South lead at the end of October with a 7-2 SU record. However, all they remember in Waco right now is how their team finished up with three straight losses in which their defense allowed 150 points.

Despite the issues on defense, Baylor has one of the more exciting players in college football with Robert Griffin. The Bears are picking up 478.5 YPG on offense and Griffin is responsible for 315.5 of that total. Griffin has, however, been stifled by the defenses he has faced in that span with just two touchdowns, three picks and seven sacks. Luckily for him is that the Illini have lost both games they’ve played this year against dual-threat QBs (Ohio State, Michigan).

Illinois isn’t totally against a wall for this game as they have true freshman Nathan Scheelhaase lining up under center. Scheelhaase has picked up 1,583 yards through the air and another 660 yards on the ground to go along with 21 touchdowns. He’ll be taking on a defense that among the most porous in the country, allowing 427.3 YPG to rank 98th in the nation.

Baylor has been getting some more love at the betting shops than the Illini, which would make sense with this practically being a home game. The Bears have gone 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS this year as favorites. Illinois has not been a slouch as a pup, evidenced by a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record in 2010.

The Fighting Illini are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three games against Big XII foes as underdogs. The Bears are 0-2 SU and ATS in their last two games versus Big Ten foes.

Texas Bowl history sides with the “chalk” as they’re 3-1 SU and ATS in all four editions of the contest. Gamblers may want to take a hard look at the ‘under’ coming through since it is 3-1 in those bouts.

Alamo Bowl – 9:15 p.m. EST, ESPN

The evening closes out in San Antonio as Arizona (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) takes on the Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma State (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) is getting the love at the betting shops as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 66. You can take the Wildcats for the outright victory at plus-170 (risk $100 to win $170).

The Wildcats were well on their way to a strong season after opening up with a 7-1 record in their first eight games, including a 34-27 win at home against Iowa. But they struggled down the stretch with a four-game losing streak that ended with a heartbreaking 30-29 loss at home to the Sun Devils. As bad as things closed for Mike Stoops’ crew, they still made a great bowl game because the rest of the Pac-10 stunk outside of Stanford and Oregon.

Arizona isn’t known for its running game, having averaged 135.2 YPG on the ground to rank 85th in the country. But Nic Grigsby is the main rusher for the ‘Cats, but has been hampered by an ankle injury late in the year.

What the Wildcats are known for is the ability to throw the ball with great accuracy. Nick Foles has connected on 67.6 percent of his passes for 237.1 YPG through the air for 19 touchdowns. Juron Criner has been Foles’ top target, catching 73 passes for 1,186 yards and 10 scores.

Defensively, Arizona is more geared towards taking on passing attacks (206.6 passing YPG, 42nd). However, they are able to hold down running offenses just as well (136.7 rushing YPG, 39th). What the Wildcats are best at is taking down quarterbacks, having done it 33 times this season to rank 14th in the country.

Oklahoma State comes into this game looking to forget about what could have been. The Cowboys had a spot in the Big XII title game locked up if they could beat the hated Sooners. Yet Oklahoma threw the ball all around on the Cowpokes in a 47-41 to take the South Division. Now OSU finds itself in a middle-tier bowl game once again under Mike Gundy’s guidance.

The Cowpokes are going to miss offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen after he heads to West Virginia after this game, but he’s done some great work. Oklahoma State is the No. 1 offense in the nation with 537.6 YPG. Brandon Weeden has been a great addition at QB, with 336.4 YPG through the air and 36 touchdown tosses. Of course, you can’t have that you have the best wide out in the nation with Justin Blackmon (102 receptions, 1,665 yards, 18 TD).

Oklahoma State isn’t all about the pass this year. Kendall Hunter has given OSU a huge effort on the ground with 1,516 rushing yards and 16 scores. However, Hunter has not found the end zone in his last two starts for the Cowpokes.

You’d have to say that OSU has to know how to move the ball on offense because they can’t stop anyone on defense. They are allowing 27.8 PPG in 2010, which is a little misleading since they’ve had at least 28 points scored on them seven times. Plus, the ‘Pokes are 115th against the pass, giving up 275.5 YPG via the skies.

Oklahoma State has done well against Pac-10 teams recently, going 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four matches. The Cowboys have been just as good this year as favorites with 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS mark. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in that stretch as well.

Arizona has lost both games they had this season as an underdog, but they covered the last one in a 48-29 loss to the Ducks as a 20-point road pup. Against Big XII teams, the ‘Cats are 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS since 1998.

Favorites have been the dominant team to take recently as they’ve won the last four Alamo Bowls outright. However, they’re just 2-2 ATS in that stretch. Another thing to look at is the ‘under’ since it is 3-1 in those past four editions.